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From Bretton Woods to BRICS+: The Evolving Global Order

In July 1944, 730 delegates from 44 countries gathered in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA, to regulate a new post-World War II monetary and financial order. At that time, due to the ongoing Second World War, much of Europe, Asia, and Africa lay in ruins, and massive reconstruction was needed. The conference discussed bringing Europe and Asia back into the international economy, with the primary objective of promoting faster growth through increased integration of the world economy. It also discussed the importance of trade liberalisation, open payment systems, and institutional oversight. This led to the establishment of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to facilitate international commercial and financial relations.

The IMF, formed on 27 December 1945, was tasked with overseeing international monetary arrangements. Guidelines and rules for trade were provided by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), concluded in Geneva in 1947[i]. GATT set the rules for international trade for nearly 50 years until it was replaced by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1995.

The Bretton Woods Conference paved the way for currency convertibility and a more open trading system, which stimulated economic growth, increased economic interdependence among nations, and underscored the benefits of international cooperation on economic issues. The institutions, founded to promote faster growth through improved integration of the world economy, achieved their objective to a remarkable extent, and the fifty years (1950-2000) saw more rapid growth than the previous fifty years (1900-1950). The Economic Recovery Act, passed by the US Congress in 1948 and signed by President Truman to become law, became known as the Marshal Plan. It provided USD 13.3 billion over the next four years to aid Western Europe in rebuilding their economies. Thisaid was conditional on recipients’ agreeing to a timetable for liberalising their trading relations. It provided markets for American goods, created reliable trading partners, and supported the development of stable democratic governments in Western Europe.[ii]

Except for Western Europe and a few other countries, a significant part of the world did not benefit from the fruits of economic development in the same measure. This was partly because many countries were under colonial rule and only now were emerging as free nations. The European colonisation of the world, which started sometime in the sixteenth century, had colonised many regions of Africa, Asia, and the Americas by the nineteenth century. During this period, the Western colonialists imposed a Eurocentric worldview on the colonised cultures.[iii] When World War II ended, the colonial edifice built by the Western colonial powers began to crumble in the face of freedom movements across the globe. Within a few decades, all the colonised countries achieved freedom. However, the economic recovery that Western Europe experienced as a result of the initiatives taken at the Bretton Woods Conference did not spread to the former colonies because the initiatives taken for economic rejuvenation were designed for Western Europe. Hence, the recovery was primarily restricted to the Western democracies. While colonialism was a thing of the past, in terms of global economic policies, it was the US which called the shots. It was a US-led world order, which could be called a Bretton Woods world order. The economic policies formulated for the world primarily reflected the Western worldview and were designed to serve Western interests.

 

The G7

In 1973, the foreign ministers of four of the world’s wealthiest countries—the US, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom—met informally to discuss trade and financial matters. Later, this group was enlarged to include Japan and Italy to form the Group of Six (G6). The first summit meeting of the G6 was held in 1975 in France to address pressing economic concerns, which included inflation and a recession caused by the oil embargo placed by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In 1976, Canada joined the group to form the Group of Seven (G7).[iv] From 1998 to 2014, the Group became G8 with the entry of Russia, but Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 resulted in its indefinite suspension, and the group is now G7.

While the G7 is an informal bloc, its leaders meet annually to discuss global economic governance, international security, and other issues such as climate change and AI. The EU Commission President and European Council President also attend the annual G7 Summit. In addition, high-ranking G7 and EU officials meet throughout the year. All the participants are wealthy democracies, and the forum’s small and relatively homogenous membership promotes collective decision-making. The GDP of the member countries (excluding the EU) is a substantial 43 per cent of the global GDP. They have about 10 per cent of the worldwide population but hold about 50 per cent of its wealth. While lacking a legal or institutional basis, the G7 continue to wield significant international influence. However, with the rise of other economies, the share of the G7 is showing a declining trend. It has fallen to its present level from its earlier 70 per cent three decades ago and will fall further as other economies, such as India, rise. With a changing world order, the Bretton Woods system is increasingly being challenged by other groupings, such as BRICS, to reflect the changing geo-economic realities.

 

The Dollar Hegemony

With the Bretton Woods system and its institutions, such as the World Bank and the IMF, in place, global economic transactions were linked to the US dollar, which in turn was linked to the value of gold. This US commitment laid the foundation of the international monetary system. In August 1971, US President Richard Nixon ended the dollar convertibility to gold, and major currencies began to float against each other. The oil shocks of the 1970s and the decision to delink the US dollar from gold profoundly impacted the US and the global economies. Against this backdrop, the Nixon administration cemented a deal with Saudi Arabia. The US dollar would be the medium of sale for all Saudi oil sales in return for Washington’s commitment to supply military equipment to Saudi Arabia and protect its national security. Money from the sale of oil would be funnelled back into the United States in treasury bond markets. This kept the dollar stable and promoted its use in oil and commodity trading, giving rise to the term petrodollar and strengthening its position as the world’s key reserve, financing and transactional currency.[v] However, bilateral transactions are increasingly taking place using local currencies, which has caused questions to be raised about the dollar’s decline.

 

BRICS

The acronym BRICs came to be used in economic writings to refer to Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the four countries that had formed an intergovernmental organisation which held its first summit in 2009. When South Africa joined the organisation in 2010, it became known as BRICS. In 2024, the BRICS was expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Two other countries were also invited to join: Argentina and Saudi Arabia. Argentina later declined the invitation, and Saudi Arabia has yet to accept formally. The expanded group is referred to as the ‘BRICS+’. The Kazan Summit of 2024, hosted by Russia, reportedly agreed to create a new category of BRICS countries. As per media reports, Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam were offered membership, but no further details are available.[vi]

When BRICS was founded in 2009, the underlying idea was that as an informal grouping of emerging economies, it could influence the policies initiated by international institutions that were overly dominated by Western powers whose interests they served to the detriment of developing countries. They sought an alternative to what was perceived as the dominance of the Western viewpoint in major multilateral groupings, such as the World Bank, the Group of Seven (G7), and the UN Security Council. Thus, the thrust was coordinating its members’ economic and diplomatic policies, creating new financial institutions, and reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar. However, this approach had inherent contradictions. The countries have diverse interests and independent foreign policies that reflect on their policies while dealing with the United States and the stand they take on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war and other conflicts. Their shared interests include increasing economic development, focusing on multilateralism, opposing non-UN sanctions, and advocating for global governance reforms.[vii] Recently, emphasis has also been laid on creating alternate global finance systems to reduce dependency on the US dollar.[viii]

A significant achievement of the BRICS is the founding of the New Development Bank (NDB) in 2014. The NDB provides development funds to countries as an alternative to the World Bank and the IMF. The group’s expansion in 2024 indicates growing economic and demographic heft, enabling it to exert more significant influence on global financial systems and issues such as climate change and clean energy.

Along with the founding of the NDB, the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) was also agreed upon. A treaty to that effect was signed in July 2014 and ratified by the BRICS countries at the Summit held in July 2015. The CRA protects member countries against global liquidity pressures. It is a framework for providing support through liquidity and precautionary instruments in response to actual or potential short-term balance of payments pressures.

The NDB and the CRA were designed as alternatives to the Bretton Woods arrangement because it was perceived that institutions like the World Bank and the IMF were failing to meet the needs of poorer nations. Commenting on the Bretton Woods system, UN Secretary-General António Guterres pithily remarked: “Rich countries created this system to benefit rich countries.” While the NDB provides easier access to funds than the World Bank, it is restricted to its members. Its lending focuses on clean energy, transportation, sanitation, and social development. Since its operations began in 2016, the NDB has approved over $32 billion for ninety-six projects. While this sum is not insignificant, the World Bank lends far more. In fiscal 2023 itself, the World Bank lending was USD 72.8 billion.[ix] In terms of its sheer scale of operations, the NDB cannot replace the World Bank. Also, its ambitions to redesign the global financial system have fallen short, as it maintains many of its competitors’ practices. The NDB and CRA are meant to mimic the World Bank and IMF, respectively, so that, through alternative lending institutions, South-South cooperation could be reinvigorated, and dependence on the World Bank and IMF could be reduced. That has not happened.

BRICS+ is also not a homogenous bloc. Significant tensions exist among the original members, India and China, and between newer members, such as Egypt-Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia-UAE (should the former accept the invite to join the bloc). This makes coordinated action on global issues, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and reforming existing institutions, such as expanding the UN Security Council, challenging. Economic and political instability in member countries also impacts BRICS cohesiveness. China is experiencing an economic slump, while Brazil and South Africa have experienced collapsing state capacity, yearslong recessions, chronic corruption, and crumbling infrastructure in the past decade. The push to enlarge the bloc is also fraught with challenges. Russia and China favour expansion, while India and Brazil are more hesitant, considering their warm relationship with the US and fearing a dilution in their influence in the bloc. While Russia may desire BRICS to head in a more strongly anti-West direction, there will be resistance from India, UAE, Brazil and Saudi Arabia as and when it joins the bloc. As Boris Bondarev, former Russian diplomat to the United Nations, told the Washington Post in 2023: “Nobody in this bloc is willing to put themselves in the position that Russia is currently in, as an open adversary of the West and the United States, risking armed confrontation.”[x]

However, the BRICS will continue to expand. Many analysts believe that a growing BRICS+ could undermine the Western-led international order. Others believe that the BRICS’s ambition to create its currency and develop a workable alternative to existing institutions faces insurmountable challenges. The jury is still out. One thing, though, is certain: The group will also face pushback from developed nations. How it navigates the headwinds it will encounter will determine its heft in the coming years.

 

The Dollar Question

The BRICS countries have serious concerns about the US dollar’s primacy in international trade, which exposes them to Western sanctions. They advocate de-dollarization and increased trade in local currencies or a potential common BRICS currency. A BRICS currency is unlikely for the present, as it would require significant political compromises, including a banking union, a fiscal union, and general macroeconomic convergence. The dollar is still used in over 80% of global trade and is favoured as a stable currency. It would be difficult for the BRICS countries to develop an alternative that could have the world’s trust.

The Biden administration has downplayed talk of de-dollarization. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that Washington doesn’t see BRICS as a geopolitical rival, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has largely dismissed efforts to move away from the dollar. The general view in Western capitals is that the BRICS countries’ ambitions are exaggerated, and internal challenges within the grouping hamper any real threat to Western economic health.[xi]

However, doubts and concerns persist, with some Western analysts stating that anti-West sentiment is increasing and that the West needs to reform financial institutions. Some scholars also opine that the BRICS de-dollarization efforts could eventually undermine the dollar’s strength and, thus, the health of the U.S. economy. The prevailing sentiment is that “Ignoring BRICS as a major policy force—something the U.S. has been prone to do in the past—is no longer an option. “[xii]

President-elect Donald Trump also expressed that concern on his social media, TruthSocial, on 30 November. “The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we standby and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US Dollar, or they will face 100% tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US Economy.”[xiii] This threat will undoubtedly put a hold on any immediate plans to replace the US dollar, but the fact that Mr Trump was compelled to make it indicates high levels of concern in the US about the possibility of the US dollar being replaced.

Since the end of the Second World War, the US dollar has been the world’s most used currency. It is the currency of choice for international trade, especially for major commodities such as oil. Higher dollar demand enables the US to borrow money at a lower cost and helps keep its huge external debt down[xiv]. While the rise of other currencies, such as the Euro, has eroded the US advantage somewhat, the dollar remains central to the global payments system. It increases the power of US financial sanctions.

But the pushback against the dollar has started. Today, India buys oil from Russia without using the dollar. So does China. However, developing a BRICS currency is far from the horizon. The dollar is unlikely to be overtaken as the world’s leading reserve currency anytime soon, but it will slowly come to share influence with other currencies. This trend will be aggressively resisted by the US. Some analysts believe that what we are witnessing today is the first sign of the end of the American empire. That remains to be seen. However, in the final analysis, BRICS will prioritise its efforts to achieve greater financial inclusivity in the world order. The coming decade will be interesting to watch.

 

Author Brief Bio:Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.

 

References:

[i]Bayoumi, Tamim. “The Postwar Economic Achievement.” IMF eLibrary, Jan. 1995, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451952643.022.A013.

 

[ii] Tamim Bayoumi, The Postwar Economic Achievement, available at https://www.scribd.com/document/760037343/022-article-A013-en

 

[iii] Rajiv Malhotra and Aravindan Neelakandan, Breaking India: Western Interventions in Dravidian and Dalit Faultlines, Amaryllis, 2011, p8.

 

[iv]CFR.org Editors. “What does the G7 do?” Council on Foreign Relations, 24 June 2024, www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-does-g7-do.

 

[v]Achhangani. “Is The End of the Petrodollar Near?  – Atlantic Council.” Atlantic Council, 21 June 2024, www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/is-the-end-of-the-petrodollar-near.

 

[vi]Curtis, John. “The BRICS Group: Overview and Recent Expansion.” House of Commons Library, 11 Nov. 2024, commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10136/.

 

[vii]Ferragamo, Mariel. “What Is the BRICS Group and Why Is It Expanding?” Council on Foreign Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, 18 Oct. 2024, www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-brics-group-and-why-it-expanding.

 

[viii] Ibid. 4

 

[ix]World Bank. “World Bank Annual Report 2023.” World Bank Lending, 2023, thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/a60d0e2b975a3b94bc5cfbaa8e1cb269-0090012023/related/WBAR23-App-FY23-Lending-Presentation.pdf.

 

[x] Ferragamo, Mariel. “What Is the BRICS Group and Why Is It Expanding?” Council on Foreign Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, 18 Oct. 2024, www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-brics-group-and-why-it-expanding.

 

[xi] Ibid.

 

[xii] Ibid.

 

[xiii]Honderich, Holly. “Trump Threatens 100% Tariff on Bric Nations.” BBC, 1 Dec. 2024, www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrwj0p2dd9o.

 

[xiv]Siripurapu, Anshu. “The Dollar: The World’s Reserve Currency.” Council on Foreign Relations, 19 July 2023, www.cfr.org/backgrounder/dollar-worlds-reserve-currency.

7th Atal Bihari Vajpayee Memorial Lecture (ABVML)

India Foundation hosted the 7th Atal Bihari Vajpayee Memorial Lecture (ABVML) on 27th December, 2024, at the India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, a significant event commemorating the life and contributions of one of India’s most revered statesmen. The lecture drew over 300 attendees, reflecting the deep respect and admiration that former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee continues to command.

The session was chaired by Shri Suresh Prabhu, former Union Minister and Chairman of the India Foundation’s Governing Council. In his address, Shri Prabhu fondly remembered Vajpayee’s unparalleled legacy, describing him as a leader who transcended political divides and became a symbol of unity and hope for the nation. He spoke of the profound grief that gripped the country upon Vajpayee’s passing, noting that it felt to many as though they had lost a member of their own family. Shri Prabhu highlighted Vajpayee’s unwavering commitment to the national interest, calling him a “man of steel” with an “indomitable will” that defined his approach to governance. Recalling a pivotal moment during a no-confidence motion in Parliament, he quoted Vajpayee’s defiant question to the opposition: “What is the alternative after me?” This, Shri Prabhu said, underscored Vajpayee’s deep conviction that strong leadership was crucial for the nation’s stability and progress.

The keynote address was delivered by H.E. Ranil Wickremesinghe, former President of Sri Lanka, who shared personal anecdotes and insights into his long-standing association with Vajpayee. Reflecting on their first meeting at the 1974 Inter-Parliamentary Union conference in Colombo, he recounted how their political careers often intertwined, particularly during their respective tenures as Leaders of the Opposition and later as Prime Ministers between 2001 and 2004. H.E. Wickremesinghe praised Vajpayee’s bold and transformative leadership, particularly his role in spearheading India’s second-generation economic reforms.

Drawing on his personal experiences, H.E. Wickremesinghe reminisced about the year 1977, when Vajpayee became India’s External Affairs Minister while he assumed the role of Deputy Foreign Minister in Sri Lanka. He highlighted Vajpayee’s vision for regional cooperation and the historical and cultural ties between India and Sri Lanka. He also touched upon his family’s connections to Indian luminaries such as Gopal Krishna Gokhale and Rabindranath Tagore, underscoring the deep-rooted bond between the two nations. H.E. Wickremesinghe concluded by emphasising the current economic collaboration between India and Sri Lanka, which aims to position Sri Lanka as a regional economic powerhouse.

A special highlight of the event was the release of a new publication titled Leader Par Excellence, a compilation of insightful discourses from eminent personalities delivered over the years at the ABVML. The book was officially unveiled by H.E. Wickremesinghe, Shri Suresh Prabhu, Dr. Ram Madhav, and Ambassador Bhaswati Mukherjee. This collection serves as a tribute to Vajpayee’s towering legacy and his enduring influence on contemporary leadership and governance.

The event concluded with a heartfelt vote of thanks delivered by Major General Dhruv C. Katoch, Director of the India Foundation. Expressing gratitude to the speakers, attendees, and organisers, he underscored the importance of such platforms in keeping the memory and ideals of leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee alive for future generations. The 7th Atal Bihari Vajpayee Memorial Lecture once again highlighted the timeless relevance of his vision and values in shaping the nation’s path forward.

 

 

 

 

A Compendium of Atal Bihari Vajpayee Memorial Lectures throughout the years

A Compendium of Atal Bihari Vajpayee Memorial Lectures throughout the years

IF IHC Events – Book Discussion on ‘The Golden Road: How Ancient India Transformed the World’

Date: 20 December 2024

Venue: Gulmohar Hall, India Habitat Centre, New Delhi

Time: 6:00 PM onwards

 

The speakers include Shri William Dalrymple – Historian and Co-Director, Jaipur Literature Festival (Author of The Golden Road: How Ancient India Transformed the World); Dr T.C.A. Raghavan, Former Director General, Indian Council of World Affairs; Prof Heeraman Tiwari, Professor, Centre for Historical Studies, School of Social Sciences, JNU; and Mr Nick Booker, Co-Founder, IndoGenius. The session was moderated by Capt. Alok Bansal, Director, India Foundation.

 

The conversation revolved around the profound and far-reaching influence of ancient Indian thought across diverse domains such as trade, culture, religion, philosophy, and political organization. The panelists examined how ancient India was not a passive recipient but an active contributor to global civilizational exchanges, influencing regions as far as Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and even parts of Europe.

Visit of Japan Delegation

India Foundation hosted a five-member delegation from the Kajima Institute of International Peace (KIIP), Tokyo, Japan led by Mr. Nobuyuki Hiraizumi, President of Kajima Institute of International Peace (KIIP) from 2-6 December 2024.      This was a reciprocal visit of the Japanese delegation as the India Foundation delegation of five senior delegates led by Dr. Ram Madhav, President, India Foundation visited Japan last year hosted by KIIP in December 2023. On 02 December 2024, the visit of the Japanese delegation began with an interaction of the delegation with a select group of Japan experts, former diplomats & scholars led by Dr. Ram Madhav, President, India Foundation followed by an interaction with Mr. Gourangalal Das, Joint Secretary, East Asia Division, Ministry of External Affairs. During the visit, the delegation discussed interests of mutual concern to India and Japan such as trade and commerce, security and defence as well as soft power as the delegation participated in various discussions hosted by Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), FICCI, and Jindal School of International Affairs, JGU.

A dinner reception was hosted by the Japanese Embassy in India for the delegates and India Foundation members.  The delegation also visited Rashtrapati Bhavan in Delhi and Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh.

 

 

 

India Ideas Conclave 2024

 

Event Report

Day 1, 22nd November, 2024

The Eighth edition of the India Ideas Conclave was held in Bengaluru from 22nd November to 24th November, 2024. It was organised by the India Foundation, New Delhi.It was attended by distinguished guests, eminent speakers, and around 400 delegates from diverse fields across the country.

The discussions of the three-day event revolved around building Brand Bharat and imagining India’s decade. The event oversaw participation from Smt Nirmala Sitaraman (Minister of Finance and Corporate Affair, Government of India), Dr S Jaishankar (Minister of External Affairs, Government of India), Suman Bery (Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog), Aravind Panagariya (Chairman, Finance Commission of India), Suresh Prabhu (Chancellor, Rishihood University) among other eminent personalities and delegates participating in the three-day event.”

  1. There were two parallel sessions on 22nd Novemberwhich focused on the topic “Future Tech and Gaming: Can Bharat Afford to Miss the Fourth Wave of Tech-Dominance?” with speakers Anuraag Saxena (CEO, E-Gaming Federation), Bhavin Pandya (Co-Founder & Co-CEO, Games24x7), and Sudhir Kamath (COO, Nazara). The sessionwas moderated by Raghav Pandey (Assistant Professor, National Law University, Delhi). The discussants discussed the future of gaming industry and the aspects of technology considering India’s growing youth population which presents as a unique customer as well as talent base.

 

 

  1. This thematic session focused on “Bharatiya AI Should Become One of India’s Signature Brands” with speakers M. Vidyasagar (National Science Chair, IIT Hyderabad), Abhishek Puri (Associate Consultant, Radiation Oncology), and Sharad Sharma (Co-Founder, iSPIRT Foundation). The session was moderated by Rajeev Srinivasan (Columnist, Professor, Strategic Marketer). With Artificial Intelligence rapidly transforming industries and geopolitics, it is also becoming a critical tool for economic growth, innovation, and national security. Considering India’s unique position, it is important to develop and work on the aspects of Artificial Intelligence which understands India culturally, and its challenges. The development of an ecosystem investments in research and development, supportive regulations, and strategic public-private partnerships are the key to the growth of the brand – which includes a whole-nation approach to harness the potential of AI.

 

 

  1. On 22nd November, the inaugural session featured addresses by Shri Piyush Goyal (Minister of Commerce & Industry, Government of India) and Smt Nirmala Sitharaman (Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs, Government of India). The session was chaired by Shri Suresh Prabhu (Former Minister of Civil Aviation & Chancellor, Rishihood University). They discussed about the idea of Bharat and the economic aspects of it.

 

 

 

  1. The Special Address by Shri David Frawley, Author, Padma Bhushan spoke about the India’s legacy as a civilisational and knowledge hub is unparalleled and rooted in its profound contributions to philosophy, science, and mathematics, among others. He highlighted the unique position India comes from and being a beacon of universal values, where diversity thrives within cultural framework.

 

 

  1. The Conference keynote session on “Building Brand Bharat” featured Neelakanth Mishra (Chief Economist, Axis Bank & Head of Global Research, Axis Capital) and Manish Sabhrawal (Vice Chairman, TeamLease Services Ltd). The session was chaired by Suman Bery (Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog). They discussed opportunities in various sectors to create a distinctive global brand Bharat such as technology, pharmaceutical, renewable energy, digital infrastructure among others. The discussants discussed about the scaling exports and making India as a preferred investment destination to strengthen resilient supply chains in critical industries.

 

 

  1. As part of the Late Night Conversations by the Panel on the topic “US Elections and the Rise of Conservative Politics in the World” with Swapan Dasgupta (Distinguished Fellow, India Foundation), Walter R. Mead (Distinguished Fellow, Hudson Institute & Columnist, The Wall Street Journal), Bill Drexel (Fellow for Technology and National Security Program, Center for a New American Security), James Diddams (Managing Editor, Providence), and Come Carpentier (Distinguished Fellow, India Foundation). The session was chaired by Ram Madhav (President, India Foundation). They discussed the implications of Trump 2.0 administration on bilateral relations with India and South Asia.

 

 

Day 2, 23rd November, 2024

  1. The presentation session on the “10 Trillion Economy” featured Rakesh Pandey (CMD, Bravo Group),Sandeep Tandon (CEO, Quant Money Managers Limited), and Srini Raju (Founder, iLabs Group & SriCity Pvt Ltd). The session was moderated by Rami Desai (Distinguished Fellow, India Foundation). In this session, they discussed India’s aspiration to become a $10 trillion economy through multifaceted approaches. They talked about strengthening the ‘Make in India’ initiative and positioning India as a global economic powerhouse.

 

 

  1. The standalone keynote session featured Arvind Panagariya (Chairman, Finance Commission of India) and was chaired by Chandra Wadhwa (Member, Board of Trustees, India Foundation.Arvind spoke about the confidence the world has on India considering continued efforts for the next decade, navigating challengesand learning from the mistakes made in the past.

 

 

  1. This plenary session focused on “Strategic Opportunities for Bharat in a New Global Order” with Mukesh Aghi (President & CEO, US-India Strategic Partnership Forum), Ridham Desai (Managing Director, Morgan Stanley India), and Ashishkumar Chauhan (CEO & MD, National Stock Exchange). The session was chaired by Shamika Ravi (Member, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, GOI). They discussed on the aspects of Viksit Bharat from the welfare point of view, with special focus on the labour market, welfare and population.

 

 

  1. The session on “Communicating the India Story” featured Shekhar Gupta (Founder & Editor-in-Chief, The Print), S. Prasannarajan (Editor, Open Magazine), Amish Tripathi (Author), and Ashwin Sanghi (Writer). It was chaired by Swapan Dasgupta (Distinguished Fellow, India Foundation). They discuss the role and importance of carefully crafted narratives of India’s role through various initiatives such as G20, International Yoga Day, among the others. They talked about how India can shape perceptions, inspire confidence, and be part of the emerging global order as a key player.

 

 

  1. The thematic session “Education for the Indian Century: Filling the Talent Gap” featured Deepti Navaratna (TV Raman Pai Chair Professor, NIAS), Prof. K. Gopinath (Professor, Newton School, Rishihood University), and Neelakantha Bhanu Prakash (Founder, Bhanzu). The session was moderated by Sahil Aggarwal (Co-founder & CEO, Rishihood University). The discussants talked about the potential of India and its ability to leverage its demographic dividend which hinges on a robust education system that bridges the talent gap. It is important to align education with the demands of the 21st Century and transforming India into a knowledge-driven economy. This would in turn address challenges which include preparing a work-force for Viksit Bharat@2047.

 

 

  1. The thematic session “Cultural Entrepreneurship to Build Brand Bharat” featured Chandu Nair (Angel Investor, Chennai Angels), K. Yatish Rajawat (Founder & CEO, Center for Innovation in Public Policy), Payal Nath (CEO & Founder-Director, Kadam Haat), and Ravi Narayan (Global President, Startup Genome). The session was moderated by Sanjay Anandaram (Co-Founder, NICEorg). They discussed the role of Culture in creating India which celebrates its diversity, tradition while embracing the future.

 

 

  1. The thematic session on “Global Capability Centres (GCC)” featured Lalit Ahuja (Founder & CEO, ANSR Source Inc.), Nirupa Shankar (Joint Managing Director, Brigade Group). The session was moderated by Abhishek Goenka (Founder, Aeka Advisors).

 

 

  1. The standalone keynote session featured Nilesh Shah (PM-EAC, MD & CEO, Kotak Asset Management Co.)He spoke on the transformation of India and the development of talent in relation to the economy.

 

 

  1. The plenary session on “Industry and Society” featured Komal Hiranandani (Founder & CEO, Dolce Vee), Ashish Dhawan (Co-Founder, The Convergence Foundation), Mudit Kapoor (Associate Professor, Economics, ISI), and Sriram Balasubramanian (Economist & Author of Dharmanomics). The session was chaired by Lakshminarayana K R (Chief Endowment Officer, Azim Premji Foundation). They discussed on the aspect of industry and society’s role in shaping modern economies and communities. They focused on the how as industries evolve, they drive social change, economic development, and innovation in societies.

 

 

  1. The special keynote session featured Dr. S. Jaishankar (External Affairs Minister, Government of India). The session was moderated by Shri Ram Madhav (President, India Foundation). He reiterated that Brand Bharat reflects our civilisational character as it is a statement of authenticity, representation, articulation and beliefs.

 

 

  1. The plenary session “Bharat and the New Global Order” featured Ofir Haivry (Vice President, Herzl Institute), Walter R. Mead (Distinguished Fellow, Hudson Institute & Columnist, The Wall Street Journal), Milinda Moragoda (Former High Commissioner of Sri Lanka to India), and Tariq Mansoor (Member, Legislative Council, Uttar Pradesh). The session was chaired by M. J. Akbar (Former Minister of State for External Affairs).

 

 

Day 3, 24th November, 2024

  1. The plenary session “New Age News Consumption” featured Anushka Pandey (Co-Founder & Managing Editor, The Tatva), Andrew Wilson (Research Associate, Centre for the Future of Liberal Society), Aditi Paswan (Assistant Professor, Delhi University), and Deep Haldar (Contributing Editor, The Print). The session was chaired by Swadesh Singh (Assistant Professor, Satyavati College, DU). With the advent of technology, they discussed on the aspects of how people consume news, marking a shift from newspaper-based media to online media, which are more dynamic and user-centric platforms. They also discuss the aspect of accessibility, challenges from misinformation, and the reliability of information.

 

 

  1. The plenary session “The Cosmopolitan Bharat” featured Anil Antony (National Secretary & Spokesperson, BJP), Anand Prasad (Senior Partner, AP & Partners), Shefali Vaidya (Author & Speaker), and Apurv Kumar Mishra (Consultant, EAC to PM, GOI). The session was chaired by Rupa Vasudevan (Founder & Chancellor, BEST Innovation University).The panellists discussed how nations confidently navigate their role in an interconnected world especially India which is diverse culturally, and inclusive in its ways. The India of today, embodies the best of local and global identities, serving as a model of harmonious co-existence in the 21st

 

 

  1. The presentation session “Conquering Culture Wars” featured standalone speeches by C. R. Mukunda (Saha Sarakaryavah, RSS), Suresh Prabhu (Chancellor, Rishihood University), and Yoram Hazony (President, Herzl Institute). The session was chaired by Dr. A. Surya Prakash (Former Chairman, Prasar Bharati). The panellists discussed the issues of identity, values, and social norms of the societies which become diverse and often polarizes societies. They even discussed the aspects of wokeism, cancel culture, and suppression of dissent, which can undermine constructive dialogues in democratic societies.

 

 

  1. The plenary session “Challenges to Brand India” featured Lt. Gen. Raj Shukla (Member, UPSC), P. S. Raghavan (Chairman, NSAB), and A. B. Mathur (Member, NSAB). The session was chaired by Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch (Director, India Foundation).The discussion in the session revolved around the aspect of unresolved geopolitical tensions which discourages partnership among nations. For India to safeguard and strengthen its Brand Bharat, there is a need for holistic approach that includes addressing internal and external threats while promoting resilience in administration.

 

 

  1. The Concluding remarks were given by Rajesh (WMG Group) and Rami N Desai from India Foundation, New Delhi.

 

 

India Study Tour of the US Thinktank Scholars

(14 to 24 November 2024)

A delegation of US thinktank scholars visited India for a study tour as a part of ‘Conservatives’ Collective’ initiative of India Foundation. The delegation was led by Dr.Walter Russell Mead. Dr. Mead is adistinguished fellow at Hudson Institute anda columnist with Wall Street Journal. The delegation comprised Mr. Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), Washington DC; Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI); Mr. Jonah Goldberg, editor-in-chief of the Dispatch; Ms. Rebeccah L. Heinrichs, senior fellow at Hudson Institute and the director of its Keystone Defence Initiative; Mr. Bill Drexel,fellow for the Technology and National Security Program at the Centre for New American Security (CNAS); Mr. Tanner Greer, non-resident fellow with the FPRI Asia Program as well as Director of the Center for Strategic Translation, Washington DC; Mr. James Diddams, Managing Editor of Providence; Mr. Andrew Wilson, research associate with Hudson Institute; James Kirchick, writer at Air Mail  and Mr. Charles Yockey, policy analyst within the Manhattan Institute’s Centers for Legal Affairs and Constitutional Studies, New York.

As part of the study tour, the delegation visited honourable vice-president, union ministers, chief minister, defence and security experts, thinktank scholars and university professors. They  also participated in many events and cultural programs. They visited not only different locations in Delhi but also travelled toTawang, Guwahati and Bengaluru. Below is a summary of the study tour organised by India Foundation.

Day 1: On 14 November 2024,the delegation led by Dr. Walter Russell Mead arrived at Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi. In the evening, a dinner interaction was hosted with Shri Manish Tewari, Member of Parliament and former union minister, marking the commencement of the visit.

Day 2: On November 15, 2024,the day began with the delegation traveling to the India Foundation office for the Conservatives’ Collective Dialogue with a group of Indian scholars.The discussion featured an exchange of perspectives from both Indian and American viewpoints, making it highly productive and insightful.

In the afternoon, the delegation visited Hon’ble Vice President Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar for a courtesy meeting along with India Foundation president Dr. Ram Madhav and Distinguished Fellow Dr. Swapan Dasgupta where the delegation had anengaging interaction with the Hon’ble Vice President. After this, the delegation visited the Pradhanmantri Sangrahalaya (Prime Ministers’ Museum) where they got to know about the life and legacy of different Prime Ministers of India. They showed keen interest in the gallery of current Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi. The evening concluded with a dinner interaction hosted by Shri Pema Khandu, Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh where Lok Sabha MP Tapir Gao and other prominent people from Arunachal Pradesh also participated.

Day 3: On November 16, 2024, the day started with a breakfast interaction with Dr. S. Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister of India, at the Taj Palace.

Subsequently, the delegation visited the India Foundation office to have an important discussion with Dr. Mohan Bhagwat, Ma. Sarsanghchalak of Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS). The session was moderated by Dr Ram Madhav, president, India Foundation. After the lunch, the delegation had a tour to theParliament of India where they specially visited the Shilp Deergha(gallery) and the new building of the Parliament. The day concluded with dinner at Sanadige, Malcha Marg, with a select group of intellectuals.

Day 4: On November 17, 2024,the delegation visited the Akshardham Temple in the morning and later participated in a luncheon interaction withLt. Gen. S.L. Narasimhan, former DG, CCS, on the topic “India-China Border Issues” at the India Habitat Centre. The evening featured a dinner interaction hosted by Union Minister Shri Hardeep Singh Puriat his residence.

Day 5: On November 18, 2024,the delegation departed from New Delhi early morning and travelled to Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh. Upon arrival, the delegation visited the Tawang Monastery and later in the evening they explored the local Market. The day ended with a cultural evening &dinner hosted by the Deputy Commissioner, Tawang.

Day 6: On November 19, 2024,the delegation visited the Bumla Border Post in the morning, followed by lunch at the scenic Shungatser lake. After returning to Tawang the delegation visited Tawang War Memorial andconcluded the day by visiting Ralengnao ‘Bob’ Khathing Museum of Valour, Tawang.

Day 7: On November 20, 2024, the delegation travelled from Tawang to Kaziranga National Park, Assam. Later in the evening, the delegates joined a cultural program and dinner at the Police Mess.

Day 8: On November 21, 2024, the day began with an early morning visit to Kaziranga National Park for an elephant and jeep safari. Afterward, the delegation departed for Bengaluru.

Day 8-9: On November 22-23, 2024, the delegation reached Bengaluru and participated  in the 8th India Ideas Conclave where Dr. Mead and other delegates shared the dais as panelists in different sessions.

Day 10: 24 November, 2024, the delegation departed for USA in the evening from Bengaluru.

 

 

 

 

Sushma Swaraj Lectures 2024

In collaboration with the Sushma Swaraj Institute of Foreign Service (SSIFS), Ministry of External Affairs, India Foundation hosted the Sushma Swaraj Lectures 2024 on 13–14 November. This two-day event, themed Introduction to India, brought together 39 diplomats representing 30 missions to explore India’s historical, political, economic, cultural, and strategic dimensions through insightful lectures delivered by eminent speakers.

Shri Jaideep Mazumdar, Secretary (East), Ministry of External Affairs, delivered the inaugural address. His address set the tone by emphasising India’s commitment to fostering meaningful global partnerships and showcasing the nation’s multifaceted heritage.

In the first session, Dr Swadesh Singh, an Assistant Professor at Delhi University, delved into India’s rich historical legacy. His lecture offered a comprehensive understanding of India’s historical journey and cultural evolution, providing the diplomatic audience with invaluable insights into the foundations of Indian society. After that, Dr A. Suryaprakash, Vice-Chairman of the Prime Ministers’ Museum and Library Executive Council, explored India’s political journey from 1947 to 2014. Following this, journalist Shri Rahul Shivshankar examined India’s polity post-2014, highlighting fundamental political shifts, policy reforms, and governance strategies that have reshaped the nation. In the final session, Shri Nand Kumarum, CEO of the National E-Governance Division (NeGD), spoke on Digital Public Infrastructure. He illustrated India’s leadership in building inclusive digital ecosystems and transforming governance through innovative technological applications.

The second day began with Dr. Shamika Ravi, a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, giving the participants a deep dive into India’s economic trajectory. Her session explored recent reforms, resilience amid global challenges, and India’s growth strategies in a rapidly evolving global landscape. The session on culture was led by Dr Sachchidanand Joshi, Member Secretary of the Indira Gandhi National Centre for the Arts (IGNCA), who illuminated the richness and diversity of Indian culture, spanning ancient traditions to contemporary artistic expressions. Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj, former Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations, addressed the theme of Indian foreign policy. She detailed India’s evolving role in global affairs, strategic partnerships, and commitment to multilateralism.

The series concluded with an address by Dr. Ram Madhav, President of the India Foundation. His remarks outlined India’s global vision and aspirations for a more equitable and multipolar world order. His remarks combined the themes discussed over the two days and reinforced India’s commitment to fostering global understanding.

The Sushma Swaraj Lectures 2024 gave diplomats a holistic understanding of India’s historical, cultural, and geopolitical identity, strengthening the country’s diplomatic engagement.

 


Discussion on ‘AI in the light of Dharmic Science and Wisdom’

India Foundation organised a discussion on ‘AI in the light of Dharmic Science and Wisdom’ on 15 November, 2024 in New Delhi with Padma Bhushan Dr David Frawley, Vedacharya and Founder, American Institute of Vedic Studies as the speaker and Prof (Dr) K Gopinath, Professor, Newton School of Technology, Rishihood University as the discussant. Mr Côme Carpentier De Gourdon, Distinguished Fellow, India Foundation, moderated the discussion.

 

Mr Côme Carpentier De Gourdon drew attention to the expanding learning capabilities of AI and the autonomous development of neural networks which often eludes the understanding of their architects. He also mentioned David Frawley’s upcoming book on the subject and his seminars exploring the intersection of AI and spirituality.

 

 

Dr David Frawley critiqued the limitations of AI, stressing that it has not, and perhaps never will, achieve the level of intelligence represented by Lord Ganesha—the epitome of supreme intelligence. AI, while useful for communication, information storage, and comparative analysis, is fundamentally devoid of real human intelligence. He questioned the term ‘artificial intelligence’, arguing that it misleadingly suggests the creation of an ‘artificial human’, which is far from reality.

 

The discussion transitioned to the Upanishadic philosophy of knowledge, which distinguished between quantifiable knowledge and eternal, universal knowledge. Dr Frawley asserted that India excelled in producing high-intelligence individuals in technology and India’s emphasis on Vidya—self-knowledge—and the pursuit of infinite, universal understanding preserves its edge in intellectual contributions. He also reflected on the Upanishadic view of reality, noting that while physical phenomena can be subjectively measured and quantified, true reality is immeasurable, transcending quantification.

 

Dr Frawley addressed the replicability crisis in modern science, highlighting its implications for the credibility of experimental results and the limitations of artificial intelligence (AI). He asserted that AI, lacking prana (life force), is not a living entity but a tool limited to programmed functions. He also explored the adverse effects of AI on education and attention spans, stressing the importance of sustained attention as a cornerstone of yogic practice. He critiqued the Western world’s overreliance on intellect, advocating for a shift toward direct perception and inner knowledge as outlined in the Vedantic tradition. The latter designates Samadhi—the silent and focused mind—as a pathway to true knowledge.

 

The discussion highlighted the centrality of prana in sustaining both physical and psychological immunity. Modern society’s overdependence on technology is linked to a decline in prana and creativity, with Dr Frawley calling for an educational system that fosters inner knowledge and nurtures creativity. He also discussed the ethical dimensions of technological advancements and cautioned against the potential dangers of new technologies while recommending their ethical and mindful use. He underlined the role of the government in regulating technology to ensure its responsible deployment. Additionally, the vulnerabilities of centralised technological civilisations were discussed, requiring greater local responsibility and adherence to global ethical standards in managing technology. This balance, Dr Frawley argued, is essential for creating a sustainable and resilient society.

 

 

Prof (Dr) K Gopinath, from Rishihood University explored the unique perspective of Indian thought and its potential influence on artificial intelligence (AI), particularly through the distinction between linear and cyclic models of reasoning and computation. He argued that while linear reasoning dominates Western approaches, the cyclic model—more prevalent in Indian intellectual traditions—aligns more closely with the underlying principles of AI. He elaborated on the cyclical model, accentuating its iterative method for learning, adjustment, and prediction, which mirrors the functioning of AI systems. Prof Gopinath explained how AI employs deep learning techniques to predict outcomes and adjust its internal parameters based on continuous observations, demonstrating the practical application of cyclical reasoning.

 

He explained the integration of observation with computation in Indian thought, referencing drik ganita (calculation through observation) practised in traditional Indian astronomy and mathematics, and he highlighted how the cyclical model allows for a deeper understanding of complex realities by continuously refining predictions based on new data. This adaptive approach, he argued, is more effective than purely linear axiomatic reasoning in grappling with the intricacies of AI systems. Prof Gopinath also addressed the challenges in AI development, including the energy-intensive nature and extended training times of deep learning models, and underscored the need for a balanced integration of linear and cyclical models to enhance AI’s efficiency and applicability. Applying observation in AI was highlighted as a key factor in enabling dynamic adjustments and improving model accuracy over time.

 

Concluding his presentation, Prof Gopinath laid stress on the importance of understanding and leveraging both linear and cyclical models in AI research. He advocated for a synthesis of these approaches to build systems capable of addressing the multifaceted realities of the modern world, drawing inspiration from the rich traditions of Indian computational thought.

 

India, Multipolarity, and the Shifting World Order

Is the world moving towards multipolarity, or at least towards a new world order? In the last century, close to the end of the Second World War, Henry Morgenthau Jr., at the opening of the Bretton Woods conference, observed: “The transcendent fact of contemporary life is this: … the world is a community.” This thought had been enunciated thousands of years earlier in India, where the Maha Upanishad mentions the ancient Indian philosophical concept of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (The world is a family). But were the institutions created after World War II to govern the world order focused on creating an equitable world or to perpetuate the stranglehold over power in the hands of a few?

When India gained independence, the philosophy behind the phrase “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” found utterance in the voices of its leaders, but India was not a power that could influence global decisions. During India’s G20 presidency, the summit held in New Delhi in September 2023 was themed on Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam—One Earth, One Family, One Future. Prime Minister Modi has used this phrase while advocating for peace in the Russia-Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas conflict and during his frequent interactions with world leaders for a more equitable world order.

Eight decades after the formation of global institutions such as the United Nations (UN), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, the questions regarding their relevance in today’s world are becoming louder and more constant. When these institutions were established, the world order radically differed from the one we live in today. There was little concern then about issues such as climate change. Terrorism was confined to limited geographical pockets, and its spread was not difficult to contain. The world had yet to make those rapid technological advancements that define the present battle space, especially in communications and long-range precision weapon systems. The space race was in its infancy, and cyber warfare was not a threat. But all that has changed now. The world is literally “on fire,”[i] as the rather provocative article by the Stockholm Environment Institute states. This raises the question: Can the existing institutions of global governance adapt to change? Or are new instruments required to replace the ones formed about eight decades ago?

Recognising the need for change, UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a policy brief in July 2023 titled “A New Agenda for Peace.” It outlines his vision for peace and security in a world in transition, aiming to address current conflicts, foster sustainable peace, and promote international cooperation. “What is at stake,” Guterres wrote, “is not the future of the United Nations, but of our nations and humanity. The possibility of global devastation, whether from nuclear weapons, climate change, diseases or war, or even technology run amok, is tangible and increasing. Member States will need to find new ways of working together despite the increasing mistrust that has permeated international relations.”[ii]

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit, held in Kazan, Russia, from 22-24 October 2024, is a pointer to how a future world order could emerge. A plurilateral organisation, BRICS was founded pursuant to a meeting of the four leaders of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) in St Petersburg, Russia, on the margins of the G8 Outreach Summit in July 2006. Two months later, in September 2006, the group was formalised as BRIC during the first BRIC Foreign Ministers Meeting held on the sidelines of the General Debate of the UN Assembly in New York City. After that, the first BRIC summit was held in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on 16 June 2009.[iii] The Kazan Summit has added more members to BRICS— Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to form the BRICS+. Many countries have applied for membership, so the organisation is set to grow.

BRICS+ challenges the structural advantages that advanced market economies continue to enjoy,[iv] but it is not an anti-West grouping. It allows operating within and outside groupings like the G20 for India and other middle powers. This fact precludes the world from being divided into rigid blocs, a throwback to the Cold War years. The West, for now, is adopting a wait-and-watch attitude. Still, there is no reason for alarm or confrontation, especially if the West addresses emerging powers’ concerns, legitimate hopes and aspirations.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) also seeks to reshape the geopolitical landscape by funnelling development finance to extend its economic and political influence. Decarbonisation will rewrite the geopolitical script by changing the value of specific resources—diminishing the relevance of fossil fuels while increasing the importance of rare earths.

An American political scientist, G. John Ikenberry, has viewed the emerging change as dividing the world into three major groupings—The West led by the US; the East comprising Russia and China; and the developing world. According to Ikenberry, these ‘three worlds’, as he put it, are not blocs but loose evolving factions with situation-specific dynamics. He characterises plurilateral organisations such as the Quad, BRICS, the SCO and other regional organisations in this manner. An interesting facet of the view is that Ikenberry posits that Asia is at the forefront of the change that will come about and that India will be a critical driver of that change.[v]

India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr S. Jaishankar, alluded to these geopolitical shifts while addressing the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York on September 25, 2024. While emphasising the need to rebalance the global order, he noted that economic, political, and demographic transformations over the last eight decades have propelled several Asian countries into the top twenty world economies. Among these, India—ranked as the tenth-largest economy just a decade ago—has now risen to fifth place and is projected to become the third-largest by the decade’s end. He spoke of the inevitability of change and argued for a multipolar world with more independent decision-making centres as international politics was redirecting toward finding convergences and overlapping interests among nations.[vi] The United States will contest this change and resist efforts to alter the status quo. China will continue its quest for global leadership, making a future conflict all the more plausible. The Global South, though not a pole in the conventional sense, will significantly influence the changes that occur in the world order. India’s role, too, will be critical.

India’s Neighbourhood

The volatility in India’s neighbourhood reflects the transformation underway in the global order. Power struggles, shifting alliances, increased cooperation in some areas, and intensified competition in others are all becoming more frequent. Asia remains the focal point of these developments, driven by India’s rise, Japan’s developed economy, China’s bid to challenge U.S. dominance, West Asia’s energy reserves and the growth of ASEAN. How the India-China contestation plays out will be critical to any future outcome of the new world order.

The recent rapprochement between India and China in Eastern Ladakh does not signify a significant forward movement in the relationship between the two countries. Still, it indicates that the two countries can find mechanisms to ratchet down tensions and work around each other’s core concerns. China, for now, advocates a multi-polar world but remains fixated on being the sole pole in Asia. The contestation for power will thus remain. China’s President Xi Jinping has clearly articulated his vision for China as a world leader in comprehensive national strength and global influence by 2049.[vii] India, too, aims to be a developed country by 2047. There will thus be cooperation, competition and contestation between the two countries. How this plays out will impact the new world order.

In the quest for dominance while supporting India’s rise, the West would not like to see India grow to the extent that it would be a competitor to their economic and other interests. The overthrow of the democratically elected Sheikh Hasina government in August this year had US backing, as seen by Washington’s support for Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, perceived as a U.S. protégé, to head the interim government in Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, the US played for its long-term strategic interests, designed to keep pressure on India and influence Indian foreign policy to align with Western interests. Developments in India’s Northeast and some other parts of India also point to the role of external agencies in keeping India embroiled in internal issues to slow down India’s rise.

China, too, is wary of India’s rise, and the tensions along the India-Tibet border are a concomitant result of Beijing’s focus on a unipolar Asia. It also reflects in China’s support for separatist movements in India’s Northeastern states bordering Myanmar. For many decades now, China has also used Pakistan as a proxy to contain India. The China-Pakistan nexus extends to the strategic domain and manifests in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), designed to open China to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean via the Gwadar port. China’s foray into the Indian Ocean also poses a challenge for India. The network of strategic ports from the Kyaukphyu Port in Myanmar to Gwadar in Pakistan, while designed to secure China’s energy routes through the Indian Ocean, also serve as tools to encircle India strategically.

In response, India has pursued its Act East Policy, with ASEAN at its core. The Quad—a partnership involving India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia—advances India’s vision of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific and extends its influence to Australia and beyond. While India aligns with the U.S. and other Western nations in the maritime domain, differences remain on continental issues, as seen in India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Some of India’s smaller neighbours—Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives—seek to maximise their advantage by balancing ties between India and China. However, India’s cultural and civilisational links with Nepal and Sri Lanka and its geographic proximity to the Maldives provide it with a strategic edge. Through its ‘Neighbourhood First Policy,’ India has prioritised deepening physical, digital, and people-to-people connectivity with neighbouring countries and expanding trade and commerce. Over the past decade, India has taken a generous and non-reciprocal approach to regional engagement, a strategy it will likely maintain despite occasional setbacks.

As India’s global influence grows, it would be unrealistic to expect a frictionless environment. The challenges India faces—geopolitical, economic, or strategic—must be factored into its long-term growth strategy. Connectivity will remain pivotal to India’s ambitions. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), linking India with Europe and the Atlantic, and the Trilateral Highway through Myanmar, connecting India to the Pacific, illustrate India’s increasing centrality in global trade and geopolitics. This connectivity, stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific, will have far-reaching strategic and economic implications, underscoring India’s evolving role in shaping the future of the global order.

Author Brief Bio: Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.

 

References:

[i] https://www.sei.org/perspectives/transitioning-to-a-new-global-order/

[ii] https://dppa.un.org/en/a-new-agenda-for-peace

[iii] https://brics2021.gov.in/about-brics

[iv] https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/brics-summit-emerging-middle-powers-g7-g20?lang=en

[v] G John Ikenberry, Three Worlds: the West, East and South and the competition to shape global order, available at https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/100/1/121/7506681

[vi] https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/38341/Remarks_by_EAM_Dr_S_Jaishankar_at_Asia_Society_Policy_Institute_in_New_York

[vii] https://www.strategictranslation.org/articles/predicting-the-future-chinas-composite-national-strength-in-2049

AI & National Security

India Foundation hosted an insightful discussion on ‘AI and National Security’, focusing on the critical dimensions of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the context of national security. The event explored the implications of AI on modern warfare, intelligence gathering, and technological sovereignty.

Speakers:

  • Lt Gen Raj Shukla (Rtd), Member, Union Public Service Commission (UPSC).
  • Lt Gen NS Raja Subramani, Vice Chief of Army Staff, Indian Army.
  • Vinayak Dalmia, Entrepreneur & Co-founder, Bharat Semi.

Discussion Highlights

Lt Gen Raj Shukla:

Lt Gen Raj Shukla set the stage by delving into the use of AI in global disputes and active conflict zones like Ukraine and Israel. He stressed on the following aspects:

  • The economic and operational challenges posed by AI in warfare, particularly in artillery and infantry.
  • AI’s potential to accelerate intelligence processing and information dissemination, enhancing both deterrence and warfighting in the Indian context.
  • The critical need for nurturing domestic talent in AI to meet defence and security needs.
  • A critique of governments worldwide for overregulation stemming from a lack of understanding of technological complexities of AI.
  • The application of the principle of necessity under international law in AI-driven conflict scenarios.

Lt Gen NS Raja Subramani:

Lt Gen NS Raja Subramani offered an operational perspective, emphasizing on the following aspects:

  • The shift from network-centric to data-centric warfare, underscoring AI’s importance in transforming intelligence sources, including OSINT, HUMINT, SIGNIT, GEOINT, ELINT, and IMINT.
  • The role of AI in the Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA) loop, enhancing decision-making cycles in warfare.
  • Challenges posed by AI-driven misinformation and disinformation campaigns, influencing cognitive warfare strategies.
  • AI’s integration into Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS), UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), and Underwater Warfare systems. Case studies, including Ukraine’s innovative use of smart systems to neutralize and deny access to adversarial naval forces in the Black Sea were discussed.
  • The Indian Army’s efforts in adopting AI for border management, radar surveillance, cryptography, and war gaming, along with setting up dedicated research centres for training personnel in AI.
  • The importance of skilled workforce development to maximize AI’s potential in defence.

Vinayak Dalmia:

Vinayak Dalmia highlighted the strategic need for India to embrace Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) to maximize AI’s potential. The key insights he provided were as follow:

  • India’s progress in leveraging AI for supply chain management, data analysis, and decision-making but the need for greater innovation in defence applications.
  • Advocating for indigenous AI development, emphasizing self-reliance (Atmanirbharta) by drawing parallels to India’s successes with UPI and Digital Public Goods. He focused on the role of Indian companies in development of AI.
  • Urgency in bridging the technological gap between India and global powers like the USA and China.
  • He focused his attention on strategies to achieve interoperability between legacy systems and emerging defence technologies, so that there is integration among existing defence infrastructure to provide for a cost-effective solution to this issue.
  • Increasing funding for AI research and development to transition India from a global consumer to a global developer of technology in the aspect of Artificial Intelligence. With the growing demographic, India should leverage on these aspects.

Conclusion:

The discussion underscored the transformative potential of AI in national security, highlighting the importance of innovation, workforce development, and indigenous technological advancements. The speakers collectively emphasized the need for India to develop strategic frameworks to harness AI’s capabilities for defence, aligning with global trends while fostering domestic talent and infrastructure.

This event reinforced India Foundation’s commitment to addressing critical issues at the intersection of technology and security, paving the way for a more resilient and secure Bharat.

Book Discussion on ‘Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan’

04 November, 2024

India Foundation, in collaboration with India Habitat Centre, organised a Book Discussion on ‘Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan’ by Amb Ajay Bisaria, Former High Commissioner of India to Pakistan on November 04, 2024 in New Delhi. The discussants of the book were Shri Tilak Devasher, Author and Member, National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), India; Prof (Dr) Jyoti Pathania, Professor, School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University and Shri Sushant Sareen, Senior Fellow, Observer Research Foundation (ORF). The session was moderated by Capt. Alok Bansal, Director, India Foundation.

The discussion centred on the book and its insights into India-Pakistan relations and spanned around seven decades of turbulent history. Key themes of the discussion included Pakistan’s identity crisis, the impact of army elites, and the evolving power differential between the two nations. The specific issues which were highlighted included Pakistan’s use of sub-conventional warfare, the integration of Kashmir into India, and the crisis in Pakistan. The discussion also touched on the need for strategic focus on Pakistan and the potential for cautious optimism in future relations.

The key points of the deliberation included the military’s repeated interventions, the impact of anger management in diplomacy, and the paradoxical nature of Pakistan’s political system. He also highlighted the ideological divide between the two nations, the role of misinformation, and the need for realistic engagement. The discussants emphasised on the importance of understanding the historical context and the challenges of fostering lasting peace.

The other issues highlighted were the ineffectiveness of deterrence post-Pulwama, the institutional hostility of the Pakistani army towards India, and the fragility of people-to-people goodwill. The conversation also covered the impracticality of long-term peace frameworks, the limited impact of trade and cultural exchanges, and the scepticism towards the Bangladesh model. The panelists emphasised the need for realistic expectations and strategic approaches, acknowledging the deep-seated issues that hinder normalisation.

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