In the last quarter of 2025, Afghanistan’s Taliban regime performed a political backflip and raced to repair and strengthen strategic and economic ties with India. By far the most striking overture came from Industry and Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi, who urged the Afghan Hindu and Sikh community, which had fled to India, to return, stating that the country needed their skills, particularly in healthcare and trade.[1] Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, the first high-ranking official to visit India in October 2025, met senior Sikh and Hindu community members and assured them of their safety and the rebuilding of their places of worship. It may be recalled that after a deadly attack on a gurdwara in 2022, the Sikh Gurdwara Management Committee in Delhi had urged the Government of India to evacuate the remaining Sikh families from Afghanistan.
New Delhi opened a new chapter in the old ‘Great Game’ on 9 October 2025, recognising the Taliban regime in a masterly act of realpolitik and inviting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to visit India. Muttaqi secured a temporary exemption from UN sanctions and arrived directly from Russia, the only country to have fully recognised the regime to date. Thus, Russia, China and India are friendly towards Afghanistan, while Pakistan is inimical. The United States, having ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan, needs Pakistan to help it secure the Bagram airbase again, which it needs to exert pressure on the Iranian regime.
Muttaqi met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on 7 October. Before departing for New Delhi, Lavrov emphasised, “The military presence of any extra-regional players could only lead to destabilisation and new conflicts.” The Bagram Air Base was built by the Soviet Union during its presence in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, and Russia has de facto control over it. [2] Journalist Natiq Malikzada observes that America needs the airbase because it overlooks China’s western Xinjiang region and its nuclear programme at Lop Nur.[3] It would strengthen America’s position vis-à-vis China, Iran, Russia, and Central and South Asia.
Strategically, Afghanistan lies at the intersection of several non-Western connectivity projects: China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Russia’s “Greater Eurasian Partnership” linked to the Eurasian Economic Union, and north-south routes linking the Caspian Sea to the Indian Ocean. Beijing has been working on a Kabul-Islamabad channel to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). By formally recognising the Taliban, Russia secured a foothold in Central Asia’s transport redesign. In fact, the geopolitical interests of Russia, India, and China align in Afghanistan and across the broader Central Asia.
By befriending the Taliban regime, India offset Islamabad’s ties with Dhaka. It signalled to Washington that, following the erasure of its legacy in Bangladesh and Nepal and the return of Pakistan to Dhaka, India would pursue its strategic interests in the region. India has recovered ground in Sri Lanka.
US President Donald Trump’s enthusiastic embrace of Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, who has already visited the White House three times, came as a shock to New Delhi. Washington is offering Rawalpindi air-to-air missiles for F-16 fighter jets and other equipment, and Pakistan has invited the US to build and operate a new seaport near Iran’s Gwadar, on the same Makran coast. India, however, is being subjected to punitive visa norms, 50 per cent tariffs, and pressure to repudiate the purchase of Russian oil, among other measures.
During Muttaqi’s meeting with Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, India upgraded its “Technical Mission” in Kabul to an Embassy (October 10, 2025) and allowed the regime to take charge of the Afghan embassy in New Delhi. Unsurprisingly, Pakistan launched airstrikes on Kabul while the delegation was in New Delhi.[4] However, by October 12, 2025, Afghan forces retaliated with airstrikes on Lahore, using US Super Tucano jets left behind during the American exodus. Afghans attacked 27 locations along the border, including Paktia, Khost, Jalalabad, Helmand, Kunar, and the Durand Line, and claimed to have killed 58 Pakistani soldiers (Pakistan admitted 23 dead). Saudi Arabia urged restraint but declined Islamabad’s request to join the hostilities, clarifying that the new defence pact between the two nations was limited to operations against the Houthis of Yemen.
Muttaqi asserted, “Afghanistan will safeguard its borders and its national interest… We achieved our military objectives last night, and our friends, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, have expressed that this conflict should come to an end, so we have paused it from our side for the time being…” He denied that Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) cadres are present in Afghanistan. Despite agreeing to extend the 48-hour ceasefire, the Taliban claimed that Islamabad carried out airstrikes along the Durand Line, killing eight citizens, including three Afghan cricketers, in the Urgun and Bermal districts.
During a second high-level visit to New Delhi on 20 November 2025, Afghanistan’s Commerce and Industries Minister Alhaj Nooruddin Azizi announced that Kabul had halted all transit trade through Karachi and was shifting its global access to the India-backed Chabahar route.[5] Leading a business delegation at the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI), he urged the Indian private sector to invest in the route to make it viable and competitive. Addressing the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM), Azizi offered the country’s long-idle mines to India for exploration, particularly the gold mines.[6] New Delhi has expressed interest in the mining sector.
A joint study by the Pentagon and the US Geological Survey found that Afghanistan has nearly USD 1 trillion in untapped mineral resources, including copper, gold, iron ore, chromite, barite, coal, lead, natural gas, petroleum, precious and semi-precious stones, salt, sulphur, lithium, talc, and zinc, across more than 1,400 sites. The gemstones include high-quality emeralds, lapis lazuli, red garnet, and ruby. These deposits were surveyed decades ago but never developed.
Accusing Pakistan of blocking trade routes for political purposes, Afghanistan’s Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, advised Afghan traders to reduce trade with Pakistan and conclude all deals with pharmaceutical firms within three months. Afghanistan’s leading pharmaceutical company, Raoufi Global Group, and Zydus Lifesciences Limited of India signed a USD 100 million memorandum of understanding in Dubai on 27 November 2025.[7] Zydus Life Sciences will export medicines to Afghanistan and help transfer technical know-how for domestic drug production.
Afghanistan has also stopped exporting tomatoes and other vegetables to Pakistan and redirected vegetable and fruit sales to Russia, Uzbekistan, and other countries. Once the largest buyer of Pakistani rice, Afghanistan will now purchase rice from India.
These diplomatic moves have neutralised Pakistan’s strategy of keeping the Taliban hostile to India. Under the Karzai and Ghani regimes, India built dams, power lines, roads, schools, and even the Parliament building as goodwill gestures to the Afghan people. The Taliban, however, aligned with Pakistan and bombed the Indian embassy in Kabul (July 2008), kidnapped Indian engineers (2019), and allowed ISI-backed terror groups to operate camps on its soil.
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India completed all existing projects and provided food and medicines as needed. In 2021, India quietly reopened its embassy to facilitate the shipment of wheat to the country. In his meeting with S. Jaishankar on 10 October 2025, Muttaqi recalled, “Over the past four years, and particularly during the earthquakes, India was the first country to respond. Afghanistan looks at India as a close friend. We want a relationship based on mutual respect and people-to-people ties.” In the joint statement issued at the end of his visit, Muttaqi condemned the terrorist attacks on Pahalgam in Kashmir; both sides reaffirmed support for each other’s territorial integrity.
Professor Mohammad Ayoob of Michigan State University, US, notes that although Pakistan created the Taliban movement in the 1990s, supported its war with the US-backed regime in Kabul, and expected the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of Afghanistan to provide it with strategic depth, the recent clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border showed that the Taliban had turned against its mentors.[8] On deeper reflection, the amicable relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan were “an aberration”, and Kabul had opposed Pakistan’s membership in the UN because of the Durand Line, which divides the Pashtun homelands.
Jaishankar symbolically gifted five ambulances to his Afghan counterpart as part of a larger gift of 20 ambulances and other medical equipment to support the Afghan people. These include MRI and CT scanners, vaccines for immunisation, and cancer medicines. Six new health projects will be finalised later, and drug rehabilitation materials will be provided through the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
India has promised to help reconstruct homes destroyed in the Kunar and Nangarhar earthquakes, as well as residences for forcibly repatriated Afghan refugees (from Pakistan), and to support the rebuilding of their livelihoods. India has pledged to maintain and complete existing projects in Afghanistan and to discuss new development priorities identified by Afghan authorities. The two nations will collaborate on water management and irrigation projects.
The India-Afghanistan Air Freight Corridor will support increased trade and commerce between the two countries. India has increased scholarships and university places for Afghan students and offered to support Afghan cricket and other sports. The new visa module (since April 2025) will issue more medical, business, and student visas for Afghan citizens. The two nations reaffirmed their joint resolve to combat cross-border terrorism in all its forms.
A positive outcome of Muttaqi’s visit is enhanced connectivity, with direct flights from Mumbai, Delhi, and Amritsar to Kabul and Kandahar, among other routes. Lauding the increased flights between Kabul and Delhi, Muttaqi said, “An agreement was also reached on trade and economy… We also invited the Indian side to invest, particularly in minerals, agriculture, and sports. We also discussed the Chabahar port… We also requested the opening of the Wagah border as it is the fastest and easiest trade route between India and Afghanistan…”
However, noting continued tensions on the Wagah border, Aam Aadmi Party MP Vikramjit Singh Sahney[9] said, “The biggest game changer is that His Excellency and the Indian government have agreed that flights from Amritsar to Kabul will begin. Pakistan is not letting the Attari-Wagah land route open, and Afghan drivers are not being allowed to come here in trucks. This is our way to fight this…”
Interestingly, soon after the recent border clashes, the Taliban supreme leader, Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada, ordered the Ministry of Water to build dams on the Kunar (Chitral river in Pakistan), which could reduce the flow of water to Pakistan’s northwestern region.[10] With India moving to check the Indus waters, Pakistan could find itself in a tight corner.
Istanbul talks
For many years, Indian generals and strategic analysts have warned of a possible two-front war with Pakistan and China. Now, with Washington forcing New Delhi to improve ties with Beijing, which is being pressured on multiple fronts, it is Islamabad that fears a two-front war with India and Afghanistan! Given the new tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the peace talks between the two countries in Istanbul were crucial.
The Istanbul peace talks collapsed dramatically on 28 October 2025 over US drone operations and cross-border terrorism.[11] The stunned mediators from Qatar and Turkey struggled to continue the dialogue, but to no avail.
The immediate trigger was the Pakistani delegation’s admission that Islamabad has a firm agreement with the US allowing drone operations from Pakistani territory. This enraged the Afghan side, which demanded assurances that Pakistan would not allow US drones to violate Afghan airspace. Although initially agreeable, the Pakistani delegation recanted after an “unknown phone call” from Islamabad and said they had no control over American drones or the activities of the Islamic State (Daesh). The Qatari and Turkish mediators described the breakdown as “sabotage by design.”
Major General Shahab Aslam, head of the Special Operations Division of the ISI and head of the Pakistani delegation, demanded that the Afghan Taliban “summon and control” all groups operating against Pakistan, including the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The Afghan side countered that TTP members were Pakistani nationals and that Kabul had no authority over them.
The failure of the Istanbul talks stalled the peace process and heightened the risk of military confrontation along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Afghan sources warned that any future Pakistani strikes would be met with “reciprocal action” against Islamabad. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif accused Kabul of acting as New Delhi’s tool.[12] Appearing on Geo News’ primetime show Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada ke Saath, Asif said the Afghanistan-Pakistan negotiations in Turkey collapsed after four or five reversals by the Afghan side. He accused Kabul’s power brokers of sabotaging progress under India’s influence.
Mohammad Suhail Shaheen, the Islamic Emirate’s ambassador to Qatar and a member of the negotiating team in Istanbul, said that Islamabad requested that the Islamic Emirate guarantee no security incidents on Pakistani soil, but the Afghan delegation asserted that each country is solely responsible for its own security.[13] Shaheen said Pakistan was trying to blame the Afghan government for an attack by a former CIA asset of Afghan origin in Washington and for a drone strike against Chinese citizens in Tajikistan, though most of the attacks destabilising the region are organised by Pakistan. Kabul denied that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operates from Afghan territory or organises attacks inside Pakistan. After the talks failed, Pakistan reopened the Torkham crossing on 01 November 2025 to allow Afghan nationals who had taken refuge in Pakistan to return home.
Afghanistan has shrugged off Western sanctions and purchased oil directly from Russia. The first fuel-loaded train arrived in Herat on 07 December 2025, after which the authorities announced plans to expand trade and build partnerships without middlemen. This is a significant geopolitical statement against Islamabad’s practice of using trade corridors for political leverage. By diversifying its trade partners, Kabul is mitigating Pakistan’s dominance over its economy.
In the third high-level visit to India in less than three months, the Afghan public health minister, Noor Jalal Jalali, arrived in the capital (Dec 16, 2025) to strengthen health cooperation, exchange expertise, and coordinate joint efforts.[14] The discussions are expected to focus on capacity-building for Afghan health workers, the import of quality medicines and medical equipment, and other health-related cooperation. In November, India delivered 63,734 doses of influenza and meningococcal vaccines, 73 tonnes of life-saving medicines, vaccines, and essential supplements to Kabul to help meet the healthcare needs of the population.
The Taliban regime values India for the humanitarian and health assistance provided despite political turbulence. Kabul is now looking forward to the arrival of an Indian ambassador, even as the border crossings between Afghanistan and Pakistan remain firmly closed. General Zia ul-Haq’s dream of strategic depth in Afghanistan, which mesmerised the military leadership for over three decades, has become a bitter nightmare for Pakistan.
Author Brief Bio: Sandhya Jain is a political analyst, independent researcher, and author of multiple books. She is also editor of the platform Vijayvaani.
References:
1] “Taliban Commerce Minister Urges Afghan Sikh and Hindu Communities to Return.” Afghanistan International, 21 Nov. 2025, www.afintl.com/en/202511218042.
2] Russia Hosts Taliban Delegation and Warns Against Foreign Military Presence in Afghanistan | Military.com. 7 Oct. 2025, www.military.com/daily-news/2025/10/07/russia-hosts-taliban-delegation-and-warns-against-foreign-military-presence-afghanistan.html.
3] Malikzada, Natiq. “The Case for an American Bagram Air Base.” The National Interest, 5 Oct. 2025, nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-road-rivalries/the-case-for-an-american-bagram-air-base.
4] “Taliban FM begins first visit by senior Afghan leader to India since 2021.” Al Jazeera, 9 Oct. 2025, www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/9/taliban-fm-begins-first-visit-by-senior-afghan-leader-to-india-since-2021
5] “Afghan Commerce Minister Urges Expanded Use of Chabahar Port, Says Govt. Considering Five-Year Tax Exemption for Arriving Industries.” The Hindu, 20 Nov. 2025, www.thehindu.com/news/international/afghan-commerce-minister-urges-expanded-use-of-chabahar-port-says-govt-considering-five-year-tax-exemption-for-arriving-industries/article70307544.ece
6] “Afghanistan Offers Idle Mining Sites to India; Assocham Urges Caution on Geological Challenges.” The Tribune, 24 Nov. n.d., www.tribuneindia.com/news/business/afghanistan-offers-idle-mining-sites-to-india-assocham-urges-caution-on-geological-challenges/.
7] “$100 Million Boost for India-Afghanistan Trade Marks Setback for Pakistan.” NDTV, 22 Dec. 2025, www.ndtv.com/world-news/100-million-boost-for-india-afghanistan-trade-marks-setback-for-pakistan-9713380
8] “Why Pakistan and Afghanistan Turned on Each Other.” The National Interest, nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-road-rivalries/why-pakistan-and-afghanistan-turned-on-each-other.
9] “Sahney Reveals Amritsar-Kabul Flights as Strategic Move to Counter Pakistan’s Blockade.” MSN, 23 Oct. 2025, www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/aap-mp-sahney-reveals-amritsar-kabul-flights-as-strategic-move-to-counter-pakistan-s-blockade/vi-AA1OnRYl
10] “Afghanistan to Construct Dams on Kunar River Following Border Clashes with Pakistan.” News on AIR, All India Radio, 24 Oct. 2025, www.newsonair.gov.in/afghanistan-to-construct-dams-on-kunar-river-following-border-clashes-with-pakistan/
11] “Pak-Afghan Peace Talks Fail amid US Drone Dispute, Diplomatic Meltdown in Istanbul.” NDTV.com, 22 Dec. 2025, www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-afghanistan-peace-talks-fail-amid-us-drone-dispute-diplomatic-meltdown-in-istanbul-9533115.
12] “Pakistan’s Khawaja Asif Accuses Kabul of Being India’s Puppet, Vows Revenge.” India Today, 29 Oct. 2025, www.indiatoday.in/world/story/pakistans-khawaja-asif-accuses-kabul-of-being-indias-puppet-vows-revenge-glbs-2809917-2025-10-29
13] Ariana News. “IEA Rejected Pakistan’S Demand for Security Guarantees: Shaheen | Ariana News | Afghanistan News.” Ariana News, 1 Nov. 2025, www.ariananews.af/iea-rejected-pakistans-demand-for-security-guarantees-shaheen.
14] Azizi, Ahmad. “Taliban Health Minister Visits India as Contacts Deepen.” Amu TV, 16 Dec. 2025, amu.tv/216277.
