Hizbul Mujahideen leader and a global terrorist, Syed Salahuddin had in a video message called for celebration of Hafta-e-Shuhuda (martyrs’ week) marking one year of the death of Hizbul terrorist Burhan Wani. Since Burhan Wani was killed by the Armed forces last year, there have been concerted attempts to keep the Kashmir valley of the Jammu and Kashmir state (here on referred to as Kashmir) restive. Declaring protest ‘calendars’, provoking and pressurizing common masses to participate in shutdowns and demonstrations, burning school buildings, financing stone-pelting have been various tools that the separatist and terrorist organizations have employed to destabilize Kashmir valley. There is also a sentiment of anger in the valley for the losses caused due to pellet guns, which is genuine. Despite the intent to save lives and maximum restraint, pellet guns did cause grave injuries. Government too is yet to deliver on its promise of Good Governance in the valley and situation on this front post 2014 floods has largely remained constant due to multiple reasons.
So, one year post terrorist Burhan Wani’s killing is a right time for all Indians to take a step back and assess the situation of Jammu and Kashmir against the prevalent narrative. It is easier to paint the picture of the entire state as one mired up in stone pelting, militancy and fighting for ‘azadi’ (much exploited and lesser understood word) but such a narrative will neither help the state of Jammu and Kashmir nor will it help it’s people.
Since past one year dominant narrative around Jammu and Kashmir has been about stone-pelting and militancy. But past ten weeks of tracking the stone pelting in Jammu and Kashmir has revealed that not more than 6% of land mass in Jammu and Kashmir has seen stone pelting. (13% if we do not consider POK, Gilgit-Baltistan, Aksai-Chin and Sakshgam Valley).
Area which saw unrest in Jammu & Kashmir
Area that remained peaceful in Jammu & Kashmir
Only 7 out of the 22 districts of Jammu and Kashmir have had stone pelting on ten or more than ten days in past ten weeks, Pulwama had the maximum number of incidents. Below is the graphical representation showing district vs number of days that had stone pelting in the past ten weeks.
Districts vs Number of days they saw stone pelting in past ten weeks.
Even the anti-militancy operations that take place in the state are restricted to certain districts. Below is the graphical representation of anti-militancy operations of the past one month.
Number of anti-militancy operations in various districts of Jammu & Kashmir
These data points reveal and confirm one fact that stone pelting is not a pan-state phenomenon. The latest round of stone pelting started in Jammu and Kashmir after an incident that took place between degree college students of Pulwama and CRPF soldiers on 17th April. This incident was exploited by the trouble seekers in the valley who wanted to create a furore after a relatively calm winter. We need to understand the various factors that drive stone-pelting in the state.
Pelting stones for money
There are several news reports that have tried to create a co-relation between money and the motivation to pelt stones. NIA post the raids in Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi and Haryana is investigating this relationship between terror funding and stone pelting. Impact demonetisation had on terrorists is a direct evidence of involvement of money in their activities. It had caused a huge blow to terror financing machinery in the state. The extent can be gauged from the fact that frantic attempts were made by terrorists to loot banks. In one such incident when terrorists found the bank empty they took away guard’s rifle.
Islamic radicalization
Another significant aspect which is playing a key role in influencing young minds to get into acts of stone-pelting and militancy is the spread of radical Islam in Kashmir. Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow at the IDSA has written about the wave of Salafi-Jihad in Kashmir. India Today quoting sources from Army in one of its report had claimed ‘The number of mosques controlled by Wahabis including the Ahle Hadith has gone up quite substantially in the last 10-15 years as they have almost doubled from around 1,000 mosques to around 2,000 with most of the youth opting for them than the traditional Kashmiri Sufi shrines‘. Ahle Hadith mosques are considered to be more radical.
Provocations from the Mosque
An article from Kashmir Observer mentions, ‘From within the Masjid, a crowd of 150-200 people charged out with sticks and stones in hand‘. Some Islamic religious leaders influence impressionable minds by justifying pelting of stones using the doctrines. They are told that stoning of the devil is part of annual Hajj pilgrimage and hence an Islamic practise. Propaganda machines operating in Kashmir have portrayed India as the Devil. But in his explanation of the significance of stone pelting during Hajj, Islamic theologian Ayatullah Sheikh Hussain Mazaheri writes in his book Secret of the Hajj, ‘…..while stoning the jamarāt, one must focus entirely upon one’s self. It is an attack on a person’s internal temptations or base desires, and signals a moving away from the self and towards further submission to Allah’s will.’ This for sure is not the explanation that is dominant in the Masjids of Kashmir valley.
While tracking the incidents of stone-pelting, my observation was that the maximum frequency of incidents of stone-pelting took place post the Friday sermons and around the Masjid areas. Government of Jammu & Kashmir is aware of this phenomenon hence the discussion to create dedicated de-radicalisation department should be translated into a decision.
See the sudden spike in the stone pelting incidents on Friday. Most incidents happened in and around the Masjid areas and post the prayer meeting.
The spread of stone-pelting across various weeks. Highest peaks can be observed on Fridays
Drug addiction among the youth
Other reason for participation of youth in stone-pelting is rising drug addiction and mental distress. Cannabis and poppy are the new cash crops of Kashmir. Out of school youngsters who are unemployed are easy traps for such purposes. According to the 2015 Kashmir Mental Health Survey conducted by the organisation, Doctors Without Borders, 45% of adults in the Kashmir valley display major symptoms of mental distress, with about one in five adults, or 19% of the adult population, displaying major symptoms of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).
Militancy-the way ahead?
Col. Vivek Chadha, Research Fellow at the IDSA has drawn parallels between Punjab of late 80s and early 90s and present day Jammu and Kashmir. He has raised the question ‘Are we witnessing the last gasp of terrorism in Kashmir?’ in his article. He chronicles various incidents like the lynching of DSP Mohammed Ayub Pandith, killing of Feroz Ahmad Dar and five other policemen by Lashkar, kidnap and murder of Lieutenant Ummer Fayyaz and the latest attack on Amarnath Yatris by the terrorists. He writes, ‘All this should normally indicate an upswing in the levels of violence and a hardening of approach by Pakistan……Contrary to this seemingly obvious conclusion, however, the reality could be the very opposite. In fact, we may well witness a shift in the ground situation in Kashmir.’ The reason he gives for the contrary belief is by comparing what had happened in Punjab. ‘the criminalisation of terrorist groups had led to senseless violence, with humiliation and atrocities being unleashed against policemen and their families as well as common citizens. This led to a fight for survival between the people and the local police on one side and the terrorists on the other…….The alienation of the population and victimisation of the local police turned the tide in favour of the State. The gradual rise in terrorism in Punjab stood in contrast to its sudden elimination.’
As Col Vivek Chadha mentions, there is fight of survival between local police and local people on the one hand and the terrorists on the other in Kashmir valley. There were reports of the launch of ‘Operation All-Out’ in June this year. Some 258 militants have been shortlisted after carrying out district wise survey. Of this there are 128 foreign militants and 130 local militants that have been identified as potential targets. The security establishment has created a blueprint to deliver a lethal blow to militancy in Jammu & Kashmir. Two additional Army battalions have been moved to South Kashmir. This year alone over 100 militants have been killed till date.
An important aspect that is ignored in the blame game of pellet and pelting is the intent of forces to maintain law and order. While the militants will not be spared, stone pelters will be treated softly, though firmly. Over the last 4 months, 53 boys involved in stone pelting, who were trying to cross the LoC to join the militants have been saved by the Jammu and Kashmir Police with the help of their parents. Army too is zeroing in on young stone throwers in Kashmir to take them around India. A group of 20 boys from South Kashmir will be taken on an educational tour to showcase development in other parts of India.
The narrative around Jammu & Kashmir has to shift from a point where a terrorist Burhan Wani is celebrated as a ‘headmaster’s son’. In all the articles that are written, terrorists who are profiled and their numbers glorified we somewhere ignore the voice of the local Kashmiri youth who just wants to lead a normal life. They too want ‘azadi’ but not from India. They want azadi from the media that portrays their land, their ‘desh’ in negative light every day, from corruption in everyday life, from poverty, from having to prove their patriotism each day. The aspirations of the youth of Jammu and Kashmir are no different from youth of any other state in India.
In 2016, 6500 Kashmiri students appeared in UPSC prelims and there is a rising trend in the number of youth applying for the KAS. This year nineteen individuals from J&K made to the merit list of Civil Services. 1,18,000 candidates applied for the posts of 5,362 constables and some 70,000 applied for the posts of 680 sub-inspectors. 28 students from the state cracked the Joint Entrance Examination (JEE)-Main with the help of Indian Army’s Super-40 initiative. The media has been constantly telling us that it is the fourth and fifth generation that is participating in Kashmir conflict but they miss the point that this generation appearing for UPSC and other exams was born post 90s too. It is this generation that has seen peace and progress in the valley and will not relent that for some separatists’ political gain.
Jammu & Kashmir fares better than most other states in terms of various development indicators, despite this it has poor social infrastructure. Government has announced building of medical colleges and hospitals, universities and IIM in the state. They are planning massive investment in road infrastructure in J&K with multiple new projects coming up and accelerated completion of existing projects. Certain examples are the Chenani-Nashri tunnel or proposed construction of world’s tallest railway bridge over the river Chenab. The 1.315 km-long bridge will soar to a height of 359 metres over the Chenab, which is 35 metres taller than the Eiffel Tower. The Government has launched innovative schemes like ‘Khelo India’ & ‘Sports For All’ to streamline youth energy in the right direction. It is also planning to start a Football academy in Srinagar. Government on its part is trying best to tell a different story of J&K but the vision of a section of local media is jaundiced and they cannot see beyond conflict. The very fact they were looking for conspiracy theories during the recent Amarnath attack is proof enough.
The need at this juncture is that the narrative of Kashmir shifts from conflict. It isn’t that there were no protests among youth of Gujarat or Uttar Pradesh. The North-East is not suddenly devoid of all the problems. We saw the youth of Tamil Nadu coming to the shores for Jallikattu. Mizoram did not become peaceful in a day. The aspirations of the youth are changing, they will no longer be satisfied by mere lip-service. When youth across India is in a flux, how can the youth of Jammu & Kashmir lag behind! The narrative in Jammu & Kashmir will change only when all stakeholders make it a national effort and rise above petty political gains. The narrative will shift when various pillars of the government become efficient and free from corruption. Economic opportunities need to be built there and while GST may be the right beginning, the state should not stop at that. The narrative there should shift from militancy and radical Islam to the idea of Indian constitution and Indian democracy.
In May this year, CM Mehbooba Mufti announced that her government plans to develop militancy-affected Tral township in Pulwama. Tral is surrounded by the snow-capped mountains and is famous for its natural springs and dense forests. The area is known for its 82 springs, including hot water springs which remain hot in winter and cold in summer. Tral is also significant because it is the home town of the terrorist Wani. Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the inaugural of the Chenani-Nashri tunnel gave a call to the youth of Kashmir valley. He said, ‘I want to tell the misguided youth of Kashmir, realise the power of a stone. On the one hand, there are some youth who pelt stones, on the other hand, there are young men from the same Kashmir who carve stones to build infrastructure’. The symbolism of choosing Tral for a development project is huge, but it is in the hands of the people there to choose between ‘tourism or terrorism’ and contribute towards the development or decline of the state of Jammu & Kashmir.
(Aaditya Tiwari is a Senior Research Fellow at India Foundation. The article was first published on News18.)
Changing Dynamics in Kashmir.
The Insurgency Dynamics in Kashmir are changing. The recent split in the cadres of Hizbul Mujahhadin showcases changing paradigms. The old Pro Azadi and Pro Pakistan Mindset is giving away to a Wahhabi and Pro Sharia mindset which considers establishment of Islamic rule as the larger objective of the struggle in Kashmir.
The Dynamics of militant Insurgency has been different in South Kashmir( Anantnag, Avantipora, Tral, Pulwama, Budgam, Shopiyan and Srinagar) where primarily the local terrorist have operated under a certain level of political patronage. However in North Kashmir ( Kupwara, Handwara, Baramullah, Bandipora, Sopore etc) it has been primarily the battle ground for foreign terrorists. What can be a cause of concern is the spread of the Wahhabi mindset in the Militant ranks which may lead to a new breed of home grown terrorists who can join hands with the pakistan trained foreign terrorists towards a larger Wahhabi agenda of Islamic Rule in Kashmir. The significant increase in the construction of Wahhabi/ salafi madarsa and mosques and burning of the sufi shrines clearly validates the view.
This change has its own grave ramifications and now with article 35A and it’s credibility under contention in the supreme court, thinks can become further murkier in Kashmir. Also it is pertinent to note that the Separatists who were treated like VIPs in the previous Congress regiemes are definitely getting sidelined and are being checked for their involvement in terror funding and nexus with pakistan, so we can expect more organised agitations on the pretext of saving dignity of Kashmiris which puts the forces on the defensive and give more space to the militants to operate.
The valley definetely has been subject to a certain level of alienation.. certainly there have been incidences but it is to be believed that the military will only retaliate when there is eminent threat or to curtail the voilence… the state government has failed to soothe the masses and there has been no political healing… so it becomes a direct confict where military is showcased as the sole culprit.
What is disturbing about primarily South Kashmir is neither the gullibility nor the volatility of sentiments or even the deeprooted hostility of Kashmiris against the government. It is the response of civil society. The media and the communist are prepared to believe and propagate the worst kind of allegations against the security forces. The double standards that we apply in Kashmir are clear for everyone to see. Apparently, “innocent until proven guilty” applies only to militants and their sympathisers. The security forces operating in Kashmir — the army, CRPF and J&K Police — are guilty of atrocities until proven otherwise.
Ironically the mainstream and social media join the disinformation campaign and their gulliability can be gauged by the fact that even reasonable precautions by the police to secure the victim and her family are projected as coercion. Any testimony exonerating the armymen is immediately denounced as having been obtained under duress. In Kashmir, the past history of excesses, both real and imaginary, is enough to condemn all the actions of security forces in perpetuity. Whereas the depredations of Pakistan-backed separatists are not only justified and glorified by their supporters in the Valley, but are also immediately discounted as government propaganda by India’s mainstream intelligentsia. The threat of wahhabism is rarely bright out in the main stream media.
We certainly are witnessing a changed paradigm and the tactical handeling of the situation has to encompass this aspect. Wahhabism is a looming threat not just to India but the world over. The number of bomb blasts and Muslim minorities being killed in the month of Ramzan the world over clearly elucidates the threat and intolerance of this ideology which is spreading in India as well.
What I see as a bigger threat in the context of Kashmir is the branching of Hizbul with zakir musa faction which has a stated view of establishment of Islamic caliphate ( Ghazwa-e-hind) as it primary aim. This mindset is definitely is going to get even wider support from the pro Wahhabi young population of Kashmir as much as it will have support from the mulla military regime of pakistan.
This change does not only have long term ramifications but also strategic implications for India. Kashmir over the years has witnessed significant increase in Wahhabi madarsa and people could be seen taking exception to kashmiriyat and their own sufi culture as being non islamic. The burning of sufi shrines and destruction of sufi mazars was just an indication. I have generally been observing the change in people and their perception. Ever wondered how Ramzan became Ramadan and khuda was replace by Allah in khuda hafiz which corroborates to the arabic way. There is noticeable change in the way few Wahhabi followers have started to dress which resembles a more arabic style of dressing and wearing a sapha (साफा पगड़ी) rather than the normal skull cap. The infusion of Wahhabi mindset in the young population is distinctly visible in Kerala, north karnataka , Telangana, western UP, Assam and West Bengal , as a matter of concern this radical viewpoint is considered just and apparently more young muslim are proudly confessing to be a Wahhabi with establishment of Islamic rule as the core belief. Ironically ISIS , Boko Haram, Al shahabab, Al queda, SIMI etc are all inspired by the radical Wahhabi viewpoint. Also my submission is based on extensive travel and interactions.
Jihad was initially , a fight against the enemy and other idol worshippers in the Arabian region which subsequently was used as a weapon to spread Islam in other parts of the world. The ongoing terrorists attacks in different parts of the world and similar attacks in Kashmir and it’s extension in other parts of India have by and large been understood or misunderstood as part of the Jihadi onslaught by Islam which gets emboldened with successful history of Jihadi impact in other parts of the world.
It’s indeed going to be a tougher phase for India as country and also for the security establishment to counter the new Wahhabi dragon which has even far deeper ideological roots than any Azadi demand or any insurgency scenario yet faced in the Kashmir valley or in our country.