Steady depletion of the environment has been a global concern for the past few decades and has precipitated a climate emergency. This is especially true for countries like India where the sheer size of population increases the magnitude of the challenges of balancing development and ecology. As the world’s second most populous country and a powerhouse economy, India has multi-dimensional challenges that lead to poor environmental outcomes. Considering that fulfilling a need as fundamental as food is the duty of the state and agriculture is a well-known source of pollution, fostering the practice of sustainable agriculture will remain critical in meeting the sustained demand for nutrition while adapting to the climatic changes, and securing the livelihood of farmers who make up about 43 per cent of income-generating Indians.^[i] By the same criterion of population, India is also at risk of becoming the junkpile capital of the world, unless well-thought out and calibrated measures are taken to establish the processes to pivot it into a circular economy. It is intriguing to see that technologies like plastics or pesticides that were once indicators of development and were deemed necessary for a better life have turned into the major contributors to pollution, affecting all aspects of human life. However, there is little doubt that in the era of the fourth industrial revolution, technology will play a vital role in mitigating the socio-economic concerns caused by environmental degradation. Technology has to be the mainstay of this transition – whether to fill the gaps or to promote innovation.

Sustainable agriculture for nutrition and income security

India has traditionally been an agrarian country and is among the top 10 agri produce exporters, providing a fairly large amount of rice, cotton, soya beans and meat to the world.^[ii] In turn, Indian agri exports ensure nutrition security globally and income generation for farmers locally. However, agriculture is threatened by the changing climatic patterns – untimely rainfall and rise in sea level that increases the challenges of farmers, while increasing the demand for climate-resilient seeds, an R&D-intense area where India is still making progress.

Agriculture is an input-intensive activity where use of water for irrigation, fertilisers and pesticides, farm machinery and tilling add to the adverse environmental impact. Besides, it is also an established source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A report by the International Energy Agency states that India emitted 2,299 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 2018, contributing about 7 per cent of the global emissions.^[iii] Agriculture and livestock owned a share of 18 per cent of gross national emissions, i.e., more than 400 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. Making agriculture sustainable will encompass using less chemicals and reducing the intensity of use of natural resources like water, and smart, frontier technologies like Internet of Things (IoT).

The term IoT refers to physical devices embedded with sensors, software, processing ability, and other technologies and are connected through the Internet or other communications networks so as to enable them to exchange data with other devices and systems. The benefits of using IoT in farming are:

• It enables remote monitoring of farm conditions and infrastructure, thereby saving time and labour on routine activities
• It helps transform information into data and improve decision making by analysing them
• It generates faster and quicker insights from data across the value-chain, and helps farmers respond to market needs
• It promotes efficiency in food production by reducing wastage and ensures safe and sustainable food to our customers through better traceability, thereby creating positive impact on a farmer’s income

According to IBM estimates, IoT may help farmers increase food production by 70 per cent by 2050. Apart from better pest management and weather forecasting, IoT, with the help of sensors, could save up to 50 billion gallons of water every year by optimizing water usage.^[iv] To drive the uptake of digital technology in agriculture, Agriculture Victoria has rolled out a 12-million dollar on-farm Internet of Things trial in four regions for sheep, cropping, dairy and horticulture farmers.^[v]

IoT can be used for a host of agricultural activities, including:

Irrigation and water quality management: India is a frontrunner in exporting rice, one of the most water-intensive crops – producing a pound of rice may need up to 2,273 litres (500 gallons) of water^[vi] and flood irrigation, a highly inefficient method, is preferred by farmers in the north-western India. This has substantially stressed the groundwater level in these states and enabling better insight about irrigation can help people counter the growing threat of drinking water. The Internet of Things is a critical ingredient in optimising water use for irrigation in farming and related activities. There are four factors which can nudge farmers to adopt smart irrigation systems. These are: integration of real-time weather forecast data, enabling synchronization of the systems with moisture sensors installed in the farm, control of the system from anywhere in the world, and reducing farmer’s input cost while helping to conserve limited water resources. When combined with sensor nodes powered with wireless communication, it can help in monitoring the water quality as well. Such a system can measure the physical and chemical parameters of the water such as temperature, pH, turbidity, conductivity, and dissolved oxygen, and the data can be viewed on Internet-powered devices using cloud services.

Integrated pest management: Though agrochemical use by Indian farmers is far less than the global average, most of the farmers are unaware of which fertilizer or pesticide to use for which crop and at what stage. This often leads to problems like residue or contamination of water bodies. While the government has proposed methods like Zero Budget Natural Farming (ZBNF), the uptake across India has been sporadic. As a result, adopting integrated pest management (IPM), an effective and environmentally sensitive approach to pest management that relies on controlled use of pesticides and fertilizers, becomes imperative. It helps increase the quality of the crop even as it reduces the input cost for farmers. However, implementing integrated pest management requires real-time information on pest infestation. IoT infrastructure can play an important role by collecting disease and insect pest information using sensor nodes, and processing the data for enabling action. Even in cases where farmers are not comfortable handling devices on the system, local Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVKs) can be connected on the platform to inform farmers about pest infestation status of their farms and guide them about the type and of pesticides they need to use.

Soil quality monitoring: The quality and fertility of soil are dependent on factors such as soil temperature, soil moisture, and microbial diversity. However, seemingly unrelated factors such as air temperature may also impact the quality and fertility of soil. Sensors connected to IoT systems can monitor the parameters and help farmers make informed decisions on sowing the seeds, use of irrigation or harvesting the crop, thereby reducing manual effort and water usage, thus controlling cost and environmental impact. They are also easy to install and low maintenance. IoT systems can be used for backup data securely, review historical or instant data to track trends or predict irrigation needs, and set up reminders. It also makes overwatering or underwatering of crops less likely and may arrest depletion of groundwater by promoting water conservation.

Other advanced technologies for sustainable agriculture: Tractors are one of the best friends a farmer can have. It reduces the effort to prepare the ground for sowing. However, a tractor can weigh anything between 1700-2600 kg^[vii] that also exerts intense pressure on the soil. This may lead to compaction of soil, affecting its ability to hold water and making water and nutrients available to the plant. Deploying small robots instead of tractors can prevent soil’s exposure to this pressure as well as help farmers to take care of their crops better – these robots can be fitted with geotagging-enabled cameras, equipment for precise broadcasting of pesticide, and planting saplings. Adopting genome editing can also help in better practice of sustainability in agriculture. Genetic modification of select crops, e.g., fruits, can have twin benefits of saving them from being plucked too raw and use chemical ripening agents for making them consumable and preventing them from rotting naturally. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates, more than 40 per cent of food produced in India is wasted, costing the country an estimated US$14 billion every year.^[viii] Genome editing can help fruits like banana, which releases ethylene gas upon ripening that leads to ripening of other bananas in the proximity, to produce less of the plant hormone and remain healthy looking without any brown patches.^[ix] Owing to the volatile public sentiment towards GM crops and genome editing, a transparent and robust governance framework is necessary before implementing such measures.

Case study: Shepparton East orchard, Australia

In 2015, Maurice Silverstein decided to upgrade his irrigation system to an automated drip system on his apple and pear orchard at Shepparton East, Australia. This upgraded system will allow him to access real-time soil moisture readings from sensors across the orchard and will also shift from sprays to drip irrigation, promoting more efficient and less water usage. It will alert him to problems in the system, such as blockages or leaks, and can be controlled by an app on his phone, empowering him to respond more quickly than relying on field inspections alone. This system allowed Maurice to be more efficient with his time and water, even as allowing him greater flexibility in terms of movement. Though he needs to be close at hand to fix any problems, he can manage his irrigation system and his orchard from anywhere that has internet coverage.

Case study: Detection of borer insects in tomatoes, India^[x]

A study presented at the International Conference on Computing and Communication Systems in Shilong in 2015 discussed an investigation on IoT-based borer insect detection in tomatoes using a robot attached to a wireless web camera and Azure cloud service. The web camera used in the investigation took videos of tomato plantation real-time and sent the data to the Java enabled Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) where the detection in unripe tomato is done. The information was then processed by the database stored at the Azure cloud platform for matching with appropriate pesticide amalgamation, following which a robot sprayed appropriate amounts of pesticides on the tomato plants.

The process consisted of two stages. In stage 1, real-time video feed from wireless webcam, accessed at Cloud end, was converted into grayscale imagery. Image segmentation was performed later to eliminate leaves and branches, and images of tomatoes were retained by performing dilation, following which RGB images of tomatoes were retrieved using masking of dilated images. In stage 2, the number and type of pest on the tomatoes were identified, and an adequate amount of pesticide was sprayed over the tomatoes.

Waste management for better environment and economy

It is not startling to realise that India is home to 17.7 per cent of the world population and as per a 2016 estimate, generates more than one-tenth of global waste. India produces an estimated 277 million tonnes of municipal solid waste every year, of which 77 per cent is disposed of in the open or end up in landfills, 18 per cent is made compost and 5 per cent is recycled. However, according to the “Swachhata Sandesh Newsletter” by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), as of January 2020, 84,475 wards of India produced 147,613 metric tonnes of solid waste every day. The tally is led by Maharashtra (22,080 MT a day), Uttar Pradesh (15,500 MT a day), Tamil Nadu (15,437 MT a day), Delhi (10,500 MT a day) and Gujarat (10,274 MT a day).^[xi]

Inefficient management of solid municipal waste and poor implementation of existing regulations have made it a major source of air and water pollution in India. New-age, smart technologies can help us integrate waste management, monitor collection and disposal, and minimize the environmental impact due to waste mismanagement. Integrated waste management systems, powered by Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) monitoring systems, can monitor automatically, and operate from a centralised control station to ensure efficiency and will require minimum manual intervention, reducing margin of error. Smart technologies can be used in the fields of:

Waste segregation: Despite several attempts, instilling a culture of segregated waste disposal remains a dream in India. Technology can help improve the situation with innovations like smart bins. These sensor-powered, pre-programmed bins can enforce waste segregation and trigger a warning when the wrong type of waste is dumped in it. The bins may also come with interactive screens to guide users on next steps for a safe disposal of that type of waste. Improving waste segregation at source is at the heart of efficient management and will play a vital role in optimising the whole chain.

Waste collection:^[xii] Currently, trucks carrying dumpsters to landfills are powered by fossil fuel, particularly diesel. This makes the waste disposal process a double jeopardy – while landfills themselves are a source of pollution, emissions from the trucks add to the pollutants in the air. Deploying a fleet management technology, common in the logistics sector, can optimize the waste collection step in the chain. Fleet management technologies use a network of sensors connected through GPS to create and analyse data to identify the best route for the fleet or individual vehicles, as required. This will help trucks to avoid traffic and not only reduce emissions but also enable maximum trash collection in less time. Besides, using vacuum suction to empty garbage bins through a network of underground pneumatic tubes can help in increasing the speed of waste collection and disposal.

Other advanced collection and disposal technologies:^[xiii] Advanced economies have made substantial effort to improve their waste management measures, some of which may prove useful for India as well. One such innovation is a solar-powered waste compactor. This is a smart device that registers the bin’s fill level in real time and activates an automatic waste compaction. The compactor-bin has effectively increased a normal trash bin’s capacity by up to 5-8 times. A similar technology is an ultrasonic trash can sensor that regularly informs the user on how full is the container and helps in reducing the cost of overfilling a skip. Another similar intervention is an image-based trash can sensor that is connected through GPS and automatically monitors both fullness and contents. The sensor also determines which containers need service each day, schedules routes and allocates jobs to drivers.

Waste-to-energy generation: This is a well-known technology for recycling residual waste that uses combustion to provide heat and power, and in turn, reduces the speed of landfills that dot the fringes of all metropolitan and smaller cities in India. Though waste-to-energy is around for some time, the uptake has remained a challenge. There is little doubt that increasing the uptake of this technology will substantially reduce waste disposal to landfills and generate clean, reliable energy from a renewable fuel source, reduce dependence on fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emission. However, the technology faces hurdles in India due to various operational and design problems, lack of segregation of waste at source being the primary one.

Case Study: New York (the US) and The Hague (The Netherlands)^[xiv]

New York has one of the more complicated waste management ecosystems in North America. The city is home to about 8.6 million people and employs around 72 hundred waste collectors to keep itself clean and sanitary. Times Square alone receives a daily footfall of about 500,000 pedestrians, creating roughly 15,300 pounds of garbage. In March 2013, as part of the largest public space recycling initiative in New York City, 30 smart waste and recycling stations were deployed in Times Square. These units were capable of waste compaction, equipped with real-time fill level monitoring and collection notifications. Connected to smart stations, these units increased the total trash collection capacity by nearly 200 per cent while the frequency of collection per bin decreased by half.

In 2009, the city of Hague in the Netherlands began installing underground trash bins that can hold a larger quantity of waste. By 2017, there were 6,100 such units installed below the pavements with the top of the bin coming out of the ground at waist height. More than half of these bins are sensor-enabled, allowing officials to remotely monitor the fill levels of containers and set up ‘smart schedules’ for emptying them. The Hague’s success with these underground containers put the city as an example of innovative waste solutions in a 2017 New York City Zero Waste Design guidelines report.

Case study: A zero-waste film set (India)^[xv]

A gathering is an ideal setting for waste generation – be that a feast, a meeting, or work, e.g., shooting of a film. However, a recently-released Bollywood cinema titled ‘Chandigarh Kare Aashiqui’ ensured that the city, which acts as its setting, does not start a landfill with its 17,000 kgs of waste generated in three months.

Six steps followed by the team include:

• Replacing plastic water bottles with water dispensers and reusable water bottles
• Using biodegradable bamboo toothbrushes and big bottles of toiletries instead of small disposable ones
• Providing colour-coded bins for disposing solid and liquid waste and PPEs
• Deploying a trained crew for segregating waste at source
• Distributing leftover food among low-income families in the area
• Recycling the waste into bricks, lamps, and other products

Conclusion

The prevailing discourse on environment-friendly technology often overlooks their hidden harms. Besides, most of these technologies are capital-intensive in nature. While COVID-19 has pushed the world to think about the environment with commitment, harnessing only capital-intensive solutions can cause ‘greenflation’ and affect overall productivity and growth of the country. For low-and-middle-income countries like India, access to advanced technologies to mitigate environmental concerns is almost always affected by lack of knowhow, adequate funds, and scepticism on part of the user. These can be addressed by focusing on easy-to-use and cost-effective technologies as well as right policy and regulatory interventions, and their implementation to promote adoption of technological solutions.

However, when it comes to environmental challenges, there is no better way to save the planet than to prevent the damage. Interestingly, though sustainable agriculture and waste management are India’s bigger ‘trouble’s, they overlap when it comes to food waste. A UN report in March 2021 states that household food waste in India is about 68.7 million tonnes a year. Food waste alone is a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions – the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that global food loss and waste generate 4.4 Gt CO2 eq every year, or about 8 per cent of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, effectively making the contribution of food wastage emissions to global warming almost equivalent to global road transport emissions.^[xvi] According to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), stopping food waste can reduce all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions by about 6 to 8 per cent.^[xvii] However, the bigger concern is, wasting food also aggravates the overall greenhouse gas emissions scenario as it adds to the emissions caused during the production, processing, and marketing of these products. Besides, it adds on to India’s burgeoning and unmanageable waste burden. Therefore, in addition to sourcing or developing technologies to address the environmental challenges at hand, it is equally urgent to create awareness about the pitfalls of irresponsible consumption and nudge for behavioural change in consumers.

Author Brief Bio: Parul Soni is Global Managing Partner of Thinkthrough Consulting and founder and Secretary General of Association of Business Women in Commerce and Industry (ABWCI) – a Virtual Chamber of Commerce for Women. He is a consummate professional with over 25 years of experience and expertise in international investment, bilateral and multilateral trade, cross-border policies, regional trade agreements and negotiations at national and international levels. He has worked in over 54 countries with Fortune 500 companies, global alliances, industry associations, international development organizations and knowledge institutions. He has been working actively with fast-growing Indian entrepreneurial and global organisations for establishing and expanding their presence across South Asia.

^[i] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=IN

^[ii] https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-breaks-into-the-top-10-list-of-agri-produce-exporters-11626975654126.html

^[iii] https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/agriculture/climate-change-and-agriculture-way-ahead-for-low-emission-growth-73537

^[iv] https://www.sigfox.com/en/iot-soil-condition-monitoring-sensors-will-optimize-agriculture-through-data-2

^[v] https://agriculture.vic.gov.au/farm-management/digital-agriculture/internet-of-things-in-agriculture

^[vi] https://apnews.com/article/india-climate-change-business-science-environment-and-nature-52a57d80d1dcb85f508cfd5f80120870

^[vii] https://www.ijcmas.com/6-10-2017/T.K.%20Maheshwari2,%20et%20al.pdf

^[viii] https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-grows-more-food-wastes-more-while-more-go-hungry-1752107-2020-12-22

^[ix] https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/follow-the-food/five-ways-we-can-feed-the-world-in-2050.html

^[x] http://14.139.206.50:8080/jspui/bitstream/1/6301/1/NK006-20170724003.pdf

^[xi] https://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/ORF_OccasionalPaper_283_SolidWasteManagement_FinalForUpload-2.pdf

^[xii] https://wasteadvantagemag.com/5-futuristic-waste-management-technologies/

^[xiii] https://www.norcalcompactors.net/technology-innovating-waste-management/

^[xiv] https://www.iotforall.com/smart-waste-management

^[xv] https://www.indiatimes.com/entertainment/originals/chandigarh-kare-aashiqui-became-a-zero-waste-film-556146.html

^[xvi] https://www.fao.org/3/bb144e/bb144e.pdf

^[xvii] https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/fight-climate-change-by-preventing-food-waste

The 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate (UNFCCC) was finally held from 1-12 November 2021, in Glasgow, UK. With climate change intensifying, scientists are warning that humanity is running out of time to limit global warming to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels. The Emissions Gap Report 2021 shows that new national climate pledges combined with other mitigation measures put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century.^[i] That is well above the goals of the Paris climate agreement and would lead to catastrophic changes in the earth’s climate. To keep global warming below 1.5°C this century, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement, the world needs to halve annual greenhouse gas emissions in the next eight years.

Civil air flights continue to see very high growth especially in major developing nations and emerging economies. This includes both passenger and cargo movement. New airports are being built and old modernised to cater to the increasing demand. Aviation affects the environment in many ways: people living near airports are exposed to noise from aircraft; streams, rivers, and wetlands may be exposed to pollutants discharged in storm water runoff from airports; and aircraft engines emit pollutants to the atmosphere. India is amongst the top five fastest growing markets. Besides flight and ground safety, environmental protection is the most important issue for all aircraft operations.

Global aviation contributes about two percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and are growing with growth in aviation. But aviation supports eight percent of the world’s economic activity in terms of GDP. As a result of massive increase in air travel by 2025, it is estimated that the total CO2 emission due to commercial aviation may reach around 1.5 billion tons. The amount of nitrogen oxide (NO) around airports, may rise from 2.5 million tons in 2000 to 6.1 million tons by 2025. The number of people who may be seriously affected by aircraft noise may rise from 24 million in 2000 to 30.5 million by 2025. However, analysts believe that the aviation related greenhouse gas emissions figure should peak at around 3 percent due to sustained actions being evolved by the governments and industry.

Many actions need to be taken. The aircraft engines have to be made more efficient with lesser emissions. Managing the airport construction related pollution, operating waste, e-waste, noise and chemical emissions are many of the concerns requiring technological solutions. Ecological airport redesign, changes in air and ground operating procedures, and eco-friendly initiatives can alleviate environmental pressures without causing passenger and operational stress. The terms ‘Sustainable Aviation’ or ‘Green Aviation’ are increasingly being used to address the technological and socio-economic issues facing the aviation industry to meet the environmental challenges of twenty-first century. The environmental programs have to be scientifically evolved specific to each airport. Balance has to be maintained between social, economic and environmental imperatives. The ultimate goal is to produce the greatest improvement in the quality of life of the citizens.

Greenfield Airports and Biodiversity

Airports have considerable effect on city’s urban development and have negative impacts on the environment. At a local level, even though noise seems to be the main concern, air emissions, resource (energy and water) availability, waste and water management, and ecosystems and land use planning constitute issues that are directly linked to local communities’ tolerance. Environmental impact and sustainability require life cycle sustenance. Selecting a site for airport or its expansion, must look at ecological balance, bird and animal habitats, compatible land use, landscape deterioration and biodiversity damage. We need to avoid building on green spaces and work with local communities and organisations to conserve biodiversity on sites near airports.

Climate Change

Internationally, aviation is considered one of the fastest growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Even though aircraft emissions are not included in Kyoto protocol, emissions that are directly controlled by airport operators are ground-based, and therefore are subject to national targets. Air pollution caused due to various reasons including the burning of aviation fuel greatly contributes to climate change. Disruptive weather affects aviation the most. The most important measures require improvements in energy efficiency and conservation, ground fleet conversions, low emission power generation plants on site or renewable energy supplies. Geothermal, hydropower, solar or wind power is used to cover a significant proportion of energy needs. Many airports focus on achieving carbon neutral operations by offsetting carbon emissions that they cannot eliminate.

Air Pollution

Degradation of local air quality is another issue. The most significant sources of air pollution (lead emissions) are aircraft, airside and landside vehicles, ground support equipment, fuel storage, engine testing, fire training and road traffic. Burning of aircraft wheel tyre rubber during landing and take-off contributes to particle matter in the air, and fuel transfer and storage facilities contribute to increased volatile organic compound (VOC) concentration. Key pollutants of concern include oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, particulate matter, sulphur oxide and carbon dioxide. The most common applied measures to control air pollution include air quality monitoring systems, air traffic management, promotion of green transport, reduction in commercial vehicle trips to-and-from airports by providing efficient public transport like airport metro etc.

Noise Pollution

Noise disturbance is a difficult issue to evaluate as it is open to subjective reactions. There are significant consequences on the surrounding areas as take-off and landings are a major source of noise. Large airports normally install noise monitoring systems, put operating restrictions and limits, manage air traffic, create anti-noise barriers, and support home insulation etc. Adverse effects on people living close to an airport, could include interference with communication, sleep disturbance, annoyance responses, performance effects and cardiovascular and psycho-physiological effects. Aircraft flying at a height of 10,000 ft above ground do not usually produce ‘significant’ noise impact. Noise monitoring computer software models produce aircraft-wise noise footprints to help calculate noise levels around the airport. These noise ‘contours’ can then be placed on a map to see which communities are subjected to different degrees of noise levels.

All commercial aircraft are supposed to meet the International Civil Aviation Organisation’s (ICAO’s) noise certification standards. The ‘balanced approach’ is reduction of aircraft noise at source; land-use planning and management measures; and noise abatement operational procedures and restrictions. Avoiding overflying residential areas hospitals and schools as far as possible; using least affected runway(s) and routes; using continuous descent approaches and departure noise abatement techniques; avoiding unnecessary use of auxiliary power units by aircraft on-stand; building barriers and engine test-pens to contain and deflect noise; towing aircraft instead of using jet engines to taxi; limiting night operations; applying different operational charges based on the noisiness of the aircraft, are some of the measures.

Supersonic/Hypersonic Flights

Concorde was the only supersonic airliner in commercial use. Many countries did not permit its operations or even overflights in view of sonic booms and resultant high sound and vibrations. Even military aircraft are allowed supersonic training flights in restricted areas away from population centres. Sonic booms over hospitals have resulted in premature deliveries of babies. However, the human beings want to travel faster. Hypersonic flight is already a reality. Hypersonic airliner could do Mumbai to New York in just two hours. The saving grace is that hypersonic flight would normally be at very high altitudes closer to space.

Waste Management

Airports generate large amounts of waste, including a considerable proportion by companies involved in cargo handling, retail, flight catering, and aircraft maintenance. As most of the waste produced at airports is generated by customers and contractors, it is important to encourage good waste management practices. A holistic waste management approach would include efficient disposal and recycling of engineering material and human waste.

Water Management

As airports cover large areas of land, it creates large amounts of runoff water which has to be effectively managed to comply with environmental standards before being discharged. Water is a valuable resource, one that needs to be used sparingly. Airport water run-offs are known to contain high levels of chemicals and toxic substances coming from aircraft and airfield de-icing, fuel spillage, fire-fighting foam, chemicals and oils from aircraft and vehicle maintenance, detergents used for aircraft and vehicle cleaning etc. Waste water and effluents need proper management to avoid polluting the environment. Most common measures applied against these are waste-water and sewage plants, drainage systems, surface and ground water quality monitoring, oil/hydrocarbons and grease separators, use of biologically degraded de-icing and anti-icing agents etc. As infrastructure providers, airports use significant volumes of water in operations. Regular water usage monitoring, leak detection and targeting, and introducing water conservation practices are important. Airports may install various leak detection systems, install water reduction devices and implement water recycling operations to reduce the demand of potable water. Drainage and rain water harvesting have to be inbuilt.

Need for Green Aero-engines

Among the many factors requiring attention, the aircraft engine requires special addressing. Most airliners nowadays fly at above 30,000 feet (9 km) altitude. Therefore, the majority of aircraft emissions are injected into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (typically 9 – 13 km in altitude). The resulting impacts are unique. The impact of burning fossil fuels at altitude is approximately double that due to burning the same fuels at ground level. This requires technological innovations and intervention. New aircraft and engine designs/technologies, and alternative materials need to be evolved. Interestingly, the most important role in an airplane’s fuel efficiency is also of the engines. Any solution must thus look at both. The two most-widely used aircraft today—the Boeing 737 and the Airbus A320 have shown that newer models of the same aircraft, with better engines, can not only carry more passengers and payload, but do so while burning nearly 25 percent lesser fuel.

Sustainable and Green Aero-Engines

Sustainable and Green Aero-Engines (SAGE) initiatives are being taken both in the European Union and in the USA, to develop aero-engine technologies, with new engine architectures that offer opportunities for reduction in CO2 emissions relative to current turbofans. Emissions of CO_2, H₂O, O₂ and N₂ which are products of hydrocarbon fuel combustion are all function of engine fuel burn efficiency. Areas being addressed include lightweight low pressure systems for turbofans; composite fan blades and high efficiency low pressure turbine; advanced engine externals and installations including novel noise attenuation; high efficiency Low Pressure (LP) spool technology while further advancing high speed turbine design; option of an aggressive mid turbine inter-duct; high efficiency and lightweight compressor and turbine; and low emission combustion chamber for next generation rotary-craft engine. Developments in controls and electronics, lightweight metallic and composite materials, hydraulic and pneumatic systems, and novel manufacturing methods, specific aero-engine parts, like casing, tanks, pipes, high temperature materials such turbine blades, and sensors would require attention.

SAGE 2 Project

European Union’s SAGE 2 project headed by Rolls-Royce and Safran focuses on demonstrating the technologies such as composite propeller blades with aero-acoustic optimisation, electric de-icing system and equipment. The gas generator used in the SAGE 2 open rotor demonstrator is derived from a Snecma M88 engine. The Airbus A340-300 MSN001 aircraft is being used as a flight test vehicle, with one full size Contra Rotating Open Rotor (CROR) pusher engine attached to a representative pylon and engine mount. Open rotor technologies offer the potential for significant reductions in fuel burn and CO2 emissions relative to turbofan engines of equivalent thrust. Open rotor engines remove the limitation by operating the propeller blades without a surrounding nacelle, thus enabling ultrahigh bypass ratios to be achieved. Installation of the open rotor engine on the airframe has its complexities, as the airflow through the propellers interacts with the supporting airframe structure in a different manner. The trend for Very High Bypass Ratio (VHBR) engines requires technology developments across a broad range of complex gas turbine systems, from fan inlet through the complete compression, combustion and turbine to exhaust.

CAEP Targets

The aircraft engines account for most of the noise and fuel consumption characteristics of airplanes. The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has a Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) since 1983. Aircraft are required to meet the engine certification standards adopted by ICAO. Of particular relevance is the Standard for NOx, a precursor for ozone, which at altitude is a greenhouse gas. Standard for NOx was first adopted in 1981. It was made more stringent in 1993, 1999, 2005 and 2011. CAEP/8 standard was set in 2010. The CAEP medium and long-term NOx technology goals was to target reduction by 45% of CAEP/6 standard by 2016; and 60% by 2026. GE clean-sheet engine GE9X class engines employ modern technologies give better specific fuel consumption (SFC). It means 10 percent lower fuel costs even when compared to the 300ER. The engine has 15db noise levels well within stage 4 margin, and 29 percent emissions within CAEP/8 margin. Novel cycles that increase bypass ratios, incorporation of lean burn technology is evolving. ICAO is developing the first non-volatile PM (nvPM) standards (covering soot or black carbon particles) for turbofan/turbojet engines. Similarly, standards are being set for turboprops, helicopter turbo-shaft, and APU engines. The nvPM standard will help better assess impact.

Design Considerations

Changes in engine design or operation might include ultra-high bypass turbofans; open rotor engines; use of alternative fuels; relocating engines on the body of the aircraft such that engine noise gets deflected upwards. An example of a ‘green’ design change can be seen in the blended wing and body of the subscale, flying X-48B aircraft prototype. Other concepts may include capitalising on the potential of advanced electrical power technologies such as batteries or fuel cells to reduce the amount of fuel needed. Using High-tech engines, propeller efficiency, advanced aerodynamics, low-drag airframe etc. can result in higher fuel saving and less gaseous emissions. Improvement in performance can be achieved by moving from a component-based design to a fully integrated design by including wing, tail, belly fairing, pylon, engine, high lift devices etc. into the solution. At the April 2018 ILA Berlin Air Show, a high-efficiency composite cycle piston-turbofan hybrid engine for 2050, combining a geared turbofan with a piston engine core was presented. The 2.87 m diameter, 16-blade fan gives a 33.7 ultra-high bypass ratio. The 11,200 lb. (49.7 kN) engine could power a 50-seat regional jet. Although the engine weight increases by 30 percent, the overall aircraft fuel consumption is reduced by 15 percent.

New Engine Concepts

Two new engine concepts currently under investigation include the ‘Combined Brayton Cycle Aero Engine’ and ‘Multi-Fuel Hybrid Engine’. Even though modern engines are supposedly very efficient, a large part of the energy input is ejected as waste heat (over 50%). Improving performance by heat recovery is the requirement. A heat exchanger integrated in a turbofan core can convert recovered heat into useful power which can be used for onboard systems or to power an electrically driven fan to produce auxiliary thrust. A dual combustion chamber, with first stage between HP Compressor and HP Turbine burning cryogenic fuel like Hydrogen/Methane or liquid natural gas, and the second combustor at an inter-stage uses kerosene/bio-fuel in the flameless combustion mode is being considered. High temperature generated in the first stage, allows flameless combustion in the inter-stage, thus reducing CO, NOx etc. Cryogenic bleed air cooling can enhance the engine thermodynamic efficiency by cooling the bleed air thus allowing increase in temperature of the fuel. contra-rotating fans (CRF) can use boundary layer ingestion to reduce both noise emission and improve propulsive efficiency.

Next Generation Innovations

Developed under the US Department of Defense’s Adaptive Versatile Engine Technology (ADVENT) and adaptive Engine Technology Development (AETD) programs, is the GE Adaptive Cycle Engine (ACE). Unlike traditional engines with fixed airflow, the GE ACE is a variable cycle engine that will automatically alternate between a high-thrust mode for maximum power and a high-efficiency mode for optimum fuel savings. ACE is designed to increase combat aircraft thrust by up to 20 percent, improve fuel consumption by 25 percent to extend range by more than 30 percent, and provide significantly more aircraft heat dissipation capacity. These adaptive features are coupled with an additional stream of cooling air to improve fuel efficiency and dissipate aircraft heat load. The joint GE/U.S. Government investment of more than US$ 1Billion, the ACE engine will incorporate both heat-resistant materials and additive manufactured components. In the ADVENT program, GE reached the highest combined compressor and turbine temperatures ever. The Adaptive Engine Transition Program (AETP) is underway. The challenge remains in going to higher overall pressure ratio engines due to increasing cooling air temperatures, constraints imposed by developing new material technologies and detrimental weight and drag impact on ultra-high bypass ratio engines. GE Aviation’s Passport engines feature a higher-pressure ratio and a compressor made of new—and unnamed—advanced materials. GE predicts that the engines will achieve 8 percent lower fuel consumption and considerably lower NOx emissions. The pulse detonation engine (PDE), which has the potential to radically increase thermal efficiency, is one of the more exciting propulsion technologies being researched. PDE uses detonation waves to combust the fuel and oxidiser mixture. Instead of burning it, it explodes it. In theory it can be used up to Mach 5.0.

Some of the statistics around aero engines can explain the challenges of engine technologies, and why very few manufacture modern engines. Each wide-chord fan blade exerts a centrifugal force of around 70 tons, equivalent to the weight of a modern locomotive; each high-pressure turbine blade generates the same amount of power as a Formula 1 car; and the turbine discs will now have a “dual microstructure” to give different mechanical properties at the centre and at the edge of the disc.

Electric and Solar Engines

A number of electrically powered aircraft, such as the QinetiQ Zephyr have been designed since the 1960s. Some are used as military drones. In 2007, France flew a conventional light aircraft powered by an 18 kW electric motor using lithium polymer batteries, and became the first electric aircraft to receive an airworthiness certificate. Solar-powered manned aircraft designed to fly both day and night without the need for fuel are already under development. Solar electric propulsion have been performed through the manned ‘Solar Impulse’ and the unmanned NASA ‘Pathfinder’ aircraft. Many big companies, such as Siemens, are developing high performance electric engines for aircraft use. Small multi-copter UAVs are almost always powered by electric motors.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Hydrogen fuel cell technology is fast evolving. A hydrogen fuel cell is an electrochemical device that uses a chemical process to convert hydrogen to electrical power, which in turn can drive one or more electric propulsion motors on the unmanned aerial vehicle. Electricity, water and heat are the only products of this chemical process, which makes hydrogen an extremely clean fuel. Hydrogen fuel cells are smaller, lighter, more versatile and more resilient than alternatives like batteries or small gasoline and diesel engines. Unlike batteries, hydrogen fuel cells do not need to be recharged. Simply connect a carbon fibre hydrogen storage tank to the fuel cell, and fly! Drones powered by a hydrogen fuel cell have much longer range and flight duration than a comparably sized battery-powered aircraft. Typical rotary and fixed wing platforms can fly up to three times longer with hydrogen fuel cell onboard. UAVs are already flying far beyond the capabilities of drones powered by batteries or gasoline engines. Operators of fixed-wing or multi-rotor platforms can fly up to three times longer with proven hydrogen fuel cell onboard.

The 600-watt and 1200-watt liquid-cooled hydrogen fuel cells and compressed hydrogen fuel source are ideal for military and commercial missions of all kinds, including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), search and rescue, law enforcement, infrastructure and agriculture inspections, and other missions where silent operation and long duration flights are critical. The hydrogen fuel cell advantages can be summed as nearly three times the range or flight time of batteries, no need for recharging, all-temperature performance, faster turnaround times between missions, no environmental footprint, virtually noise-free, logistic simplicity, liquid-cooled technology operates more efficiently at high altitudes than air-cooled fuel cells, and longer service life. Hydrogen fuel cell technology will be increasingly used on larger aircraft.

Flight Planning Tools

The flight efficiency approach requires choosing optimum flight routes. All aircraft operators and computerised flight plan service providers exchange and compare their flight plans with the best filed flight plan accepted by the integrated initial flight plan processing system. Special software tools show shortest route plans. Dynamism through the application of the Flexible Use of Airspace (FUA) concept, under which the military release airspace to civil aviation helps. The flight planning from aircraft start-up to switch-off can be a great tool to reduce engine use and fuel consumption. This allows substantial savings in distance flown, time, fuel and environment. The air and ground crew, the airline operator, air and radar controllers, among many others can play a significant role.

India’s Aviation Environmental Regulations

India’s Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) which is responsible for all aspects of enforcement and regulation has an Aviation Environmental Unit. All operators such as the airlines, navigation service providers and airport authorities too, have environmental cells. It is mandatory to submit to DGCA monthly fuel consumption data to set up a carbon dioxide emission inventory. The DGCA sponsored noise study for Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA) Delhi has now become the standard for all major airports in India. DGCA has laid down guidelines for noise measurement and monitoring at airports, including noise mapping, validation, action plan, noise reporting and proposed aviation noise limits. The Indian Ministry of Civil Aviation’s Green Aviation Policy, 2019 aims to achieve the sustainable and inclusive growth of the aviation industry in the country and remedy the ecological concerns posed by the industry. The policy creates a regulatory framework to remedy the environmental issues created by the civil aviation industry by identifying key areas that require guiding principles and regulations.

Environmental Initiatives – Indian Airports

Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA), New Delhi, was the first Indian green-field airport build with international best practices keeping environmental excellence and sustainable work practices in mind. The focus was on natural resource conservation, pollution preventions and environmental skill development. All the aspects and associated impacts due to services and operations is based on ISO 14001:2004 Environment Management Systems (EMS). IGIA ensured building green infrastructure, renewable energy initiatives, climate change & greenhouse gas management, followed international environmental standards and controls, and resource conservations (water, energy, & materials). Noise abatement is one of the key areas. Automatic aircraft noise monitoring System is installed in approach’s of all runways and identify noisy aircraft. Distribution of aircraft movement across the three runways is based on time of the day and individual aircraft noise levels. Inputs from noise complaint system are also factored in. Continuous decent approach is followed to reduce noise. IGIA has target of net zero carbon emissions by 2030. Other major Indian airports have introduced many energy efficient technologies such as energy efficient air-conditioning and water chillers, solar water heating, solar boundary lighting, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) or electric ground vehicles, LED lighting, waste water treatment plants, and high efficiency pumps. Cochin, Delhi, Mumbai and Chandigarh airports have already installed solar power plants. Bangalore and Hyderabad airport solar projects are under implementation.  Ultimate aim is to make the airports carbon neutral. Bangalore has 273 hectare of green belt and 971 hectare of natural greenery. Chandigarh International airport uses only natural light during day and mostly LED lighting thereafter. It also has a transparent glass roof with low heat gain that cuts down air conditioning requirement.

Conclusion

Advances in engine architecture, aerodynamics, and materials have resulted in today’s aircraft engines consuming 40 percent less fuel — and emitting 40 percent less CO2 — than engines manufactured in the 1970s and 1980s. Each kilogram of fuel saved reduces carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 3.16 kg. Modern aircrafts are 30-40% more efficient than those of 15 years ago. Fixed electrical ground power can reduce the amount of fuel burn used on ground power by up to 85%.

However, we cannot be satisfied with the pace of progress from the past. The next set of engine technologies, including open fan architectures, hybrid-electric and electric propulsion concepts, and advanced thermal management concepts, offer the potential to achieve at least a 20 percent additional improvement in fuel efficiency compared to today’s state of the art single-aisle aircraft engines. Industry initiatives to approve and adopt 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and investigate hydrogen as the zero-carbon fuel of the future should deliver. Aero-engines of the future will be more and more fuel efficient and environment friendly. The future of flight will be defined by how the aviation industry innovates to lower emissions and improves fuel efficiency. Global warming is causing global mean sea level to rise in two ways. First, glaciers and ice sheets worldwide are melting and adding water to the ocean. Second, the volume of the ocean is expanding as the water warms. On future pathways with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, sea level rise could be as high as 8.2 feet (2.5 meters) above 2000 levels by 2100. More than 260 airports are at risk of getting submerged due to such a sea level rise or coastal flooding. Up to 20% of flight routes could be disrupted. Therefore, time to act is now, lest it becomes too late.

Author Brief Bio: Air Marshal Anil Chopra, PVSM, AVSM, VM, VSM is a QFI, test pilot, and a pioneer of Mirage-2000 fleet. He was AOC J&K, ACAS (Inspections) and retired as Air Officer-in-charge Personnel (AOP). Post retirement, he served as a member of the Armed Forces Tribunal. Presently, he is the Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), New Delhi.

^[i] https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021

Any event can be easily manipulated politically if the intent from the start is to set a narrative contrary to the belief of the people, the geography, culture or history. The Western world has mastered that art. History reveals the attitude of the West to first get a foothold, and then overlook well-established ideals of sustainable development used by local societies. Following a consumerist approach, they have manipulated and replaced those models for their own benefit—monetary, political and social.

By controlling the branding and shaping of perceptions they control mindsets, which enables them to propagate matters in a chosen manner. By glamourising their own lifestyles, they create new markets. Simultaneously, they sow insecurity in the minds of the target social group. Climate Change is one such notion that has been twisted into politics and economics. It is a term coined only by the West and they have succeeded in making it look or seem more attractive than it really is.

What is Climate Change

Weather is essentially the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time. Although a definite time scale cannot be attached to it, weather conditions can change rapidly or last for weeks. Climate is the synthesis of weather for a long enough period for reliable statistical determination of its properties. Changes in weather are collectively known as climate. Unlike the weather, where the change is instantaneous or may last for weeks, the climate is relatively constant from year to year or century to century.

Nevertheless, there is evidence of fluctuations or variations in climate. When these fluctuations follow a particular trend, it is called a climatic trend. These fluctuations may themselves be cyclic in nature and are known as a climatic cycle. Over a longer period of time, climatic fluctuations may be such that they will shift the climate of a given area. Such changes in climate are called climate change. Various terms like climatic variations, climatic fluctuation, climatic trend, climatic cycle and climatic change refer to relevant time scales and are mostly just terminologies.

Variations in climate on geological time scales run into millions of years. Such variations in climate that occurred during recent history dating back to perhaps a few thousand years are collectively called climatic change. Changes in climate usually occur over a period of 100 to 150 years and are termed secular or instrumental changes. Other variations in climate that happen within a period of less than 30 to 35 years are used to calculate values of climatic normals. These variations are too rapid to be considered climatic change.

Are we in a Climate Change?

Article 1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”. Thus, the UNFCCC makes a distinction between ‘climate change’ due to human activities altering the atmospheric composition and ‘natural climate variability’ that occurs due to natural causes.

It is unanimously agreed that the earth is warming. How much of this warming can be directly attributed to or caused by human activity is not clear? Their effects are extremely difficult to assess, though accumulations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide are more than likely taking their toll. What is clear is that, globally, 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have all occurred in the 21st century. Each of the last three decades has been warmer than the previous one. 2001-2010 has been the warmest decade on record.

Average global air temperatures over land and sea surface in 2014 were 0.57 °C (1.03°F) above the long-term average of 14.00°C (57.2 °F) for the 1961-1990 reference period. By comparison, temperatures were 0.55 °C (1.00°F) above average in 2010 and 0.54°C (0.98°F) above average in 2005, according to WMO calculations. The estimated margin of uncertainty was 0.10°C (0.18°F).

Is it man-made?

It’s our recklessness that we multiply uncontrollably, deforest, burn stubble and use chemicals, knowing well that they cause destruction and degradation. We understand that if we do not take action now it will be too late! Ironically, we ourselves are products of climatic change. Had climate not changed, reptiles and mammoths would have ruled the earth and there would be no coal. We are a product of such transformations and this climate change will ultimately pave way for other ecosystems to evolve.

We cannot master the functionality of nature or its ways. What we see today might not be there tomorrow and there might be something new in the climate that we still do not know about. However, to link every event in the atmosphere to global warming defies logic. What we do know is that climate change has acquired a new dimension in the form of opening up new battles, disputes and new war including perception war.

The Politics of Climate Change

Climate change is a natural event but the concept can and has been used to convey manipulative motives more than it has been dealt with naturally. Ever since the term came into use, it is strongly used to build narratives that are even contradictory and are altered in different regions and for various purposes by assorted groups.

When a model of change is not in sync sustainably, does not adjust naturally, and is laced with consumerism, it speaks of hidden intents and motives. When it is being done with the purpose of changing the perception of people, it is nothing but a deception of the highest order, an epidemic (infodemic) and a form of war (perception war). Solutions turn political when there are many unexplained truths and a refusal to accept change is woven into the scheme of things.

Climate Change is politics when its interpretation is manipulated, converted into economics and used in trade. It becomes a weapon to threaten and destabilise countries. With different narratives in mind, Climate Change is used as a power projection. Politics comes into play with the setting of a narrative and usually involves hiding the truth by justifying lies. To begin with, Climatic Change has been used by its supporters with an aim to shift blame. Secondly, when it involves treatment, it is using economics and business. Climate Change politics is about looking away from simple solutions. Thirdly, it gets converted into a tool that is used to threaten all those who do not subscribe to a particular view. Towards this end, facts are doctored, information deliberately hidden, some arrangements camouflaged, and scientific knowledge is interpreted with a hidden agenda.

The Industrial Revolution and Crony Capitalism

The industrial revolution saw almost all the western economies present a consumerist model that was capital-driven and energy and resource-intensive. There was little thought given to the impact this would have on the environment. Now, having created a dirty world, the same creators are scrambling to treat the negative effects.

Crony consumerism has generated waste that required constant management. Energy use at every stage created the present man-made climate change. The industrial revolution created by Western economies has now become one of the greatest catastrophes to infest mankind. The waste generated by the combined western world in the last 200 years still remains in the atmosphere and is now the greatest cause of global warming. It is the biggest source of all greenhouse gases and subsequent environmental degradation. Western economies have made every effort possible to hide and manipulate this fact from the world. They seek to absolve themselves from the magnitude of damage caused by them and are shifting the blame to developing economies. They have also outsourced manufacturing and thus have exported pollution and emissions to developing countries.

Having used coal lavishly during their industrial revolution phase, the Western world now wants to prevent developing countries from using this cheap source of energy. This comes at a time when the developing world wants to attain a better GDP to come to some degree of parity and has just started to use coal on an industrial scale.

Food Consumption Patterns

Food consumption habits, tastes and pattern of the West leaves much to be desired. Let us examine the issue of meat production and consumption. Meat production causes global warming at a much higher rate than the cultivation of vegetables and grains. 51% of all greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock and their by-products. The industry accounts for at least 32,000 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year. Cows produce around 150 billion gallons of methane each day. Methane has a global warming potential 86 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2) and is 25-100 times more destructive than CO2 over a 20-year time frame. Livestock farming is responsible for 65% of all human-related emissions of nitrous oxide – a greenhouse gas with 296 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide. It stays trapped in the atmosphere for 150 years. Agricultural practices in the western world are also highly energy-intensive and without principles of ecological conservation. The higher rate of production ignores the cost involved in terms of energy and other inputs. The same goes for their livestock farming. The West carries on with it since they think they are correct and have the right to do so. To top it all, they convince the world of the correctness of this practice and shamelessly defend it too.

The Fashion Industry Camouflages Intent

Unmonitored growth of the fashion industry contributes to extreme levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The western world hides the truth to maintain its superiority in branding and identity, apathetically to an extent of affecting global warming. In fact, the industry accounts for 10 percent of global carbon emissions which is more than the emissions for all international flights and maritime shipping, combined.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the manufacture of polyester are three times more than those for cotton. By 2030, such emissions from the manufacture of textile alone are projected to increase more than 60 percent.

Pets come with “Climatic Price” Tags

When it comes to climate change, fondness for pets is not far behind. There are 470 million pet dogs and 370 million pet cats on the planet, and they all add to climate change. An average-size cat generates 310 kg of CO2e per year, an average-size dog produces 770 kg of CO2e per year, and a large dog creates 2,500 kg of CO2e per year. Over 64 million tons of greenhouse gases are released only because of America’s pet cats’ and dogs’ eating habits. A minor shift will bring about change, though of a minuscule level.

Travel has side effects

Travel generates huge amounts of carbon. The travel industry accounts for 8 percent of global carbon emissions and tends to grow at a rate of 4% annually. It is the need of the hour to promote carbon offsetting to compensate and reduce travel emissions. Visitors from high-income countries contribute to a majority of this footprint. Also, we indeed to promote local tourism to cut on air travel. Unless the lifestyle, GDP-oriented consumerist model, and the so-called industrial revolution-based model are changed, climate change will remain.

Narratives and Concealments as Politics

It is ironic that several narratives are aided with concealments that abound in the world. While the whole world is undergoing warming at a differential rate, there are many anomalies too. The role of methane and Trifluromethyl Sulphur Pentaflouride has been inconsistent and so has been on Ozone hole whose mechanism of formation left some in quandary and also which never grew to the desired size once the West found a market for new alternative to CFC.

The information on Arctic as well as the information and interpretation on glacier melts is inconsistent and contradictory. The causes of Arctic warming and its domino effects remain mired in contradictions. What is never even mentioned is that water temperature increases in the Arctic region contribute significantly to carbon dioxide and methane emissions and the resulting warming leads to more thawing—an effect called ‘positive feedback’.

One may not even know the truth behind the narrative related to petroleum reserves and their potential for the world but here too, the negative consequences are glossed over. The truth behind fusion reactors being environment friendly too are not very clear, neither is the reality behind the damage that could be caused by the lithium batteries. The impact of disposing of solar cells when they have lived their life is hidden too. The reality of the environmental impact of nuclear power, solar panels is replaced with another narrative. Misconceptions associated with limitless energy remain disguised. Such narratives are set in the name of so-called development and globalisation. It was western societies that coined the term ‘Climatic Change’. They then funded think tanks to pour doubts over global warming, and then later hired retired scientists to shower scorn over climate science. This resulted in enormous bias in their so-called researches that lacked objectivity. Though the West comes out with researches on global warming at frequent intervals the aim is to seed doubts and therefore the intent of the researchers even if the research was absolutely right.

Global Warming and Power Politics

The likely impact of global warming is a scary eye-opener. Projections indicate that in the US, rising seas will render important naval bases (like Norfolk, Virginia, and Mayport, Florida) essentially useless. A good number of islands and many coastal cities around the world are on the brink of submerging.

While the polar warming raises concern, contrastingly, the same areas will benefit from a more temperate climate. Greenland may have a flourishing agricultural industry by the middle of this century. 40 years ago, Arctic ice was near impenetrable. Submarines could navigate the Arctic Ocean, but not destroyers or cruisers. That is no longer the case. As the ice caps melt, there will be a geopolitical ocean-heist in the far north to gain control of aquatic hydrocarbons, deep-seabed mining and shipping routes. With Russia on one side of the Arctic and five NATO nations on the other (Canada, Denmark by virtue of Greenland, Iceland, Norway and the US), the possibility of conflict is likely to rise just like the ocean levels. The USA of course will be the last country to give any advantage to the Russians.

In the Arctic, where temperatures are rising doubly as the global normal, Russia, China and others are formally trying to establish a geopolitical foothold over the region. Resources here that were once under the ice, now stand exposed. The melting of permafrost in Siberia will pave way for the expansion of the agricultural area and its simultaneous effect will be felt on the food security of Russia too with an added muscle power to its politics. China can use Tibetan region and its snow cover to alter the albedo and affect the monsoons.

Checking Russia, China and other Choke Points

Phasing out oil imports will help reduce the income and geopolitical power of countries like Russia, which currently relies heavily on the EU market. Of course, the loss of this key source of Russian revenue could lead to instability in the near term. Strategically, as oil becomes less relevant, the old strategic chokepoints — starting with the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb strait will become less dangerous. These seaborne passages have preoccupied military strategists for decades. But as the oil age passes, they will be less subject to competition for access and control by regional and global powers.

Business Economics as Politics

A transition, either economic, technological or perceptual is a good business proposition as it offers opportunities that never existed before. It could be in the form of technological development. To begin with, developing countries have already been converted into trash bins of recycling. Developed countries have smartly outsourced all the dirty manufacturing and made the third world a dump yard for pollutants. Energy shift and transition in the Middle East economies will mean conversion to solar energy. The new climate change politics is creating and has created two different blocks, “petra” and “electra” with a concomitant effect on control of energy politics and consequently power politics.

Greater emphasis on electric power reliance will allow China to rise and petrostates will fall —or so says conventional wisdom. In reality, the geopolitical fallout of a clean energy transition will be far more subtle, complex, and counterintuitive. But politics and economics will always speculate. China also dominates the market for some of the commodities—such as lithium and cobalt—that are critical inputs for many clean energy technologies such as batteries. This naturally raises national security risks, particularly in military and communications applications, where these commodities are also crucial.

Shrinking demand for oil and gas will mean lower prices, implying that even if petrostates gain market share, they would still see revenues collapse. West Asia will have a lot of stranded assets to deal with once there is a shift in energy and power structure. Unable to sustain themselves, these organisations will become mere tools for negotiations. Of course, the reality is more complicated

The future scenario could will be that some petrostates may be tomorrow’s electrostates. Saudi Arabia, for example, which has abundant, low-cost solar power, announced a US$ 5 billion project to turn renewable energy into hydrogen, and has also sent Japan the world’s first blue ammonia shipment. Other countries rich in cheap renewable power, such as Chile, may also emerge as the superpowers of a new hydrogen-based economy. Moreover, advances in carbon-capture technology could create opportunities for natural gas to play a role in a low-carbon economy, either directly or converted to other fuels such as hydrogen. Such energy transition in itself will shift power away from those controlling and exporting fossil fuels to those who master green technologies of the future. Gradually eliminating fossil fuels and reducing its dependence on energy imports will vastly improve European Union’s strategic position. In 2019, 74% of their gas and 87% of their oil came from imports. Fossil-fuel products worth US$ 386 billion or €320 billion came from abroad that year.

In short, the western countries used untested unsustainable energy and distributed toxic pollutants into cleaner environments. They invaded developing countries and industrialised them on their own paradigms of consumerism and crony capitalism. Then they de-industrialised themselves by exporting dirty industries. Now, citing environmental ethics, western powers are blaming the same countries to which they exported their emissions and are asking them to pay for cleaning the garbage and dirt that they themselves created everywhere! To prevent genuine forthcoming action, western funded think tanks pour doubts into minds over who is responsible for global warming. Unprincipled retired ‘scientists’ are being hired to pour scorn over climate science.

Politics of Solution and the Perception War

Manmade climatic change should not have taken place in the first place. Simple sustainable solutions exist, but they are not being propagated by the polluters. Global powers keep on inserting infodemics to alter the truths, to discard genuine and easy solutions for their own purposes.

To begin with, tackling CO₂ emissions is simple. The Covid 19 pandemic showed us that the lockdowns imposed in 2020-21, which halted social and economic activities led to global carbon dioxide emissions dropping by 6.4% or 2.3 billion tonnes. While lockdowns are not being advocated, global warming can be tackled using simple natural systems. In order to make the transit from an energy-intensive society to a more ecocentric one, (commercially speaking to electric one), we will have to stop producing pollutants and greenhouse gases. Reducing the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere can be achieved through dietary changes and through innovate building designs that consume less energy. We will also have to follow environment-friendly practices like afforestation, carbon storage by expanding wetlands, expand mariculture through seaweeds and kelp farming and encourage basalt weathering.

In terms of dietary habits, a shift to reduced calorie consumption (2000 calories per day instead of 2500 calories) will suffice. Today, about 20% of the world overeats and it leads to obesity. A diet shift is also suggested to cut down the consumption of proteins to the recommended level. We need to focus more on plant-based proteins and cut down on meat-based ones. When protein requirements are to the order of 55 grams of proteins per day, there is little need to consume 75-90 grams of protein daily. In addition, cutting down on beef consumption and cattle in general from our daily diet will offer both dietary and environmental benefits. It saves agriculture for land use and reduces greenhouse gases. Rather than beef, one can choose poultry, fish, and, of course, legumes.

Other simple solutions include lifestyle changes that can be supplemented with other changes like changes to building design, curbs on commuting habits, and weekend spending. That means altering the lifestyle and brand image of the West and homogenisation of lifestyle to be closer to nature.

The world has involved itself in various conventions and concepts. These include the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (1972), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) or UN Environment, UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Kyoto Protocol (COP 3; UNFCCC Summit 1997) and other important UNFCCC Summits Post Kyoto, the last one being the Katowice (Poland) Climate Change Conference 2018. They have practically achieved nothing.

The new solutions such as the Net Zero concept, bears testimony to the ongoing manipulative streak. In simple words, net-zero refers to the balance between the amount of greenhouse gas produced and the amount removed from the atmosphere. We reach net zero when the amount we add is no more than the amount taken away.

Net-zero, which is also referred to as carbon-neutrality, does not mean that a country would bring down its emissions to zero. Rather, net-zero is a state in which a country’s emissions are compensated by absorption and removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Absorption of the emissions can be increased by creating more carbon sinks such as forests, while removal of gases from the atmosphere requires futuristic technologies such as carbon capture and storage.

The emission-reduction targets for 2050 or 2070, for rich and developed countries seem an eyewash. The same rich countries whose unregulated emissions over several decades are mainly responsible for global warming and consequent climate change assured the rest of the world to wait. They did nothing other than boost pollution. The net-zero formulation does not assign any emission reduction targets to any country. Theoretically, a country can become carbon-neutral at its current level of emissions, or even by increasing its emissions, if it is able to absorb or remove more. From the perspective of the developed world, it is a big relief, because now the burden is shared by everyone, and does not fall only on them. Glorifying its net-zero targets the West is putting pressure on the developing nations. India constitutes around 18% of the global population but contributes less than 5% of pollution.

The West is under the illusion that the important target is how much you are going to put into the atmosphere, before reaching net-zero. They assume that emissions from burning coal can be compensated in real-time by protecting a forest. This is ignorance given the fact that plants need time to grow whilst cutting fossil fuel emissions has immediate results. The fact is carbon removal does not take place in real-time.

India is opposing this net-zero target since it is likely to be the most impacted by it. Over the next two to three decades, India’s emissions are likely to grow at the fastest pace in the world, as it presses for higher growth to pull hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. No amount of afforestation or reforestation would be able to compensate for the increased emissions. Most of the carbon removal technologies right now are either unreliable or very expensive. In any case, India is not in a position to control emissions on account of various ongoing development projects aimed at taking the country forward. These projects are worth USD 28 trillion.

Opportunities for India

The earth has enough regenerating capacity environmentally. Economically, Japan and Germany are live examples of how a country can be rebuilt from the rubble after the harshness of World War II. There are many advantages that a country can gain when it starts afresh because it can remodel itself, insert a lot of lateral thinking, and look at creating new opportunities.

India is in a position to take leadership in environment protection through its soft power reach to include prevention, improvement and control. This can be done through its local wisdom and knowledge, weaving indigenous people with technology and making the historical knowledge gained through millennia to get identified and respected and implemented by the world (Gleb Raygorodetsky, Why Traditional Knowledge Holds the Key to Climate Change)

Managing Indigenous Societies and their Knowledge throughout the world

• Indigenous people and their traditional ways of life have contributed little to climate change, but ironically are the most adversely affected by it. This is because of their geographic and historic dependence on local biological diversity, ecosystem services and cultural landscapes as a source of sustenance and well-being. These indigenous people are located predominantly at the social-ecological margins of human habitation—such as small islands, tropical forests, high-altitude zones, coasts, desert margins and the circumpolar Arctic.
• The indigenous people, comprise only four per cent of the world’s population (between 250 to 300 million people). They utilise 22 per cent of the world’s land surface but maintain 80 per cent of the planet’s biodiversity in, or adjacent to, 85 per cent of the world’s protected areas. They are the real victims of climate change.
• Indigenous lands also contain hundreds of gigatons of carbon—a recognition that is gradually dawning on industrialised countries that seek to secure significant carbon stocks in an effort to mitigate climate change.
• Indigenous observations and interpretations of meteorological phenomena are at a much finer scale, have considerable temporal depth and highlight elements that may be marginal or even new to scientists.
• Indigenous peoples’ observations contribute importantly to advancing climate science, and have meaningful experiences applicable at the local level.
• Resilience in the face of change is embedded in indigenous knowledge and know-how, diversified resources and livelihoods, social institutions and networks, and cultural values and attitudes.

This local knowledge can be utilised through several mechanisms. It includes workshops with the help of several other partners (UNDP, UNESCO, and CBD) — to promote respect for the local and traditional knowledge at the national and local levels. For indigenous peoples, such workshops will provide an opportunity not only to present their experiences and knowledge about climate change in their communities, but to gain valuable information on global climate processes that are affecting their communities. Moreover, indigenous people learn about other indigenous climate change-related experiences, while scientists gain opportunities to ground-truth (field check) climate models and scenarios.

India can actually play a pivotal role in not only ending the suffering of indigenous people but utilising their knowledge and experience of being a 15,000-year-old actual civilisation. India can model Universities based on such experience on the lines of Barefoot College in Tilonia, but will need to create a realistic model that is visible and invisible as per its choosing. This is where India can truly be a ‘Vishva Guru’. This model will help a new diplomacy for India-Eco-Diplomacy. It will also empower a lot of local communities across the globe. India is the only country that has the willingness and ability to provide a platform to showcase the indigenous genius to the entire world.

By creating an eco-centric approach that sets value and importance on the entire environment and all life in it, India can lead the whole world to make the shift! By fusing management and technology with minimal investment, India can showcase its carbon capture methods to the whole world. India needs to create self-reliant models of independent units with zero emissions that are environmentally sustainable in different agro-climatic regions. This model could be adopted by different countries with a similar climate like Mali, Cambodia, Siberia and Argentina. India can have a strong stand at the Conference Of Parties COP26 of the UN Climate Change Conference and play a major role in carrying its offshoots. She can set examples by expanding and reclaiming wetlands to capture and sequester carbon deposits. Wetlands cover about 6 to 9% of the earth’s surface and sequester roughly 35% of the global terrestrial carbon.

Although forests were considered the best natural protection against climate change, recent research shows that seaweed is the most effective natural way of absorbing carbon emissions from the atmosphere. India has a large Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that can be used to remove huge amounts of carbon deposits and provide protein to its citizens from seaweed. The 7500 odd km of coastline is an effective way to grow and nurture kelp—a type of seaweed whose farming is considered to be a remedy for all the ills associated with global warming. Kelp can grow as much as 20 cm every day. It not only absorbs carbon dioxide but also de-acidifies the ocean water. By drawing CO₂ out of the waters they allow our oceans to absorb even more CO₂ from the atmosphere.

With the largest basaltic exposure in the world, India can additionally use basalt weathering technology to absorb carbon deposits. Basalt weathering means mixing crushed basalt with soil, which slowly dissolves and reacts with carbon dioxide to form carbonates. This method would allow between 0.5 billion and 2 billion tonnes of CO2 to be separated from the atmosphere each year.

Going ‘local’ is India’s recent mantra, though this life pattern is from ancient Indian wisdom. Our distinct set of concepts and thought patterns include theories based on the revival and evolution of local wisdom that is seldom found elsewhere in the world. These concepts can be weaved with our minimalistic living lifestyle and our nature-centric development visions. They are suited for different geographical settings that can be used anywhere in the world with similar agro-climatic conditions.

Minimalistic living strives to only use things that serve a purpose. It’s about simple living and having only what one needs to go about daily life. It is a smart rendezvous of technology, attitude and curbing the desires for sustainably. The components of the model include energy management, water management, vegetarian diet management, housing using natural ingredients and zero energy agriculture linked with satellites. Rural India works like a partially closed ecosystem in which energy obtained from plant photosynthetic is used to grow crops.  This in turn provides an essential energy input to grow more food and is an endless cycle. This can be co-joined with new farming technologies developed with countries like Israel, as well as agricultural technologies based on minimum energy.

The second solution is the modification and linkage of the Happiness model of Bhutan. Both these models wean away countries from a GDP-based development model, but also provide alternative sustainable income on India’s soft power platform.

The third is the extension of PM Modi’s concept of ‘One Sun, One World. One Grid’ (OSOWOG) initiative organised along with the Chatth festival (the only festival that worships the Sun). It aims to raise awareness about various ways to harness energy from the Sun. It aims to build a transnational grid that would allow countries to source solar power from regions where it is daytime to meet their green energy needs when their own installed solar capacity is not generating energy.

India is actually at cusp of change to unleash a new knowledge to the world, cleanse the world of its infodemics on climate change, weave the world communities into making the earth a liveable, sustainable and a more beautiful place.

Author Brief Bio: Prof K. Siddhartha is an Earth Scientist, Knowledge and Perception Management Consultant and Thought leadership trainer. A strategic thinker, he has been advisor to several Governments. He has written 116 research articles, authored 43 books, and is a mentor to a large number of civil servants in India.

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Nature’s wrath is currently wreaking havoc on the entire planet. This situation is not only proving to be detrimental for the human race, but it is also causing severe harm to other sentient species. This undesirable state of affairs is largely caused by human beings, who have broken the cosmic laws and caused environmental degradation to an unprecedented level. All human efforts to preserve Nature in the name of planting trees, restraining the use of plastic and opting for eco-friendly products have had little impact on the health of the planet. The need of the hour, therefore, is total change, wholesome approach, holistic view, and organismic well-being.

The Vedas are the world’s oldest texts. They focus on a natural code of conduct and an all-encompassing cosmic law that encompasses every spec of the universe, from a tiny ant to the massive galaxies. In contrast to Western and Abrahamic thought, where the environment is viewed as isolated and human-centric, the Vedic perspective on environment is devoid of any splits. Each life is wholesome and is a vital part of the ‘One Whole Reality.’ This thought makes Bhārata as not only an environmentally protective but also an environmentally conscious nation that propagates ‘Unity in Diversity’. In this regard the Bhagvadgītā states,

I equivalently indwell in all creatures. I have no likes or aversions towards any life form.^[i]

Further, the Īśopaniṣad asserts:

The entirety of cosmos is pervaded by Īśvara who is the ‘Self’ of all movable and immovable entities.^[ii]

It is therefore clear that the entire cosmos is a manifestation of the non-dual ‘Ultimate.’ The Vedas propound that the Divine not only envelops the entire cosmos, but also indwells all entities and manifests Himself as the dog, the sparrow, the Ganges, and the entire material and immaterial world. The following verses shed light on the same,

I am One and I become many ^[iii]

That Ultimate Truth is ‘One’ known by the wise as many ^[iv]

As white light passes through a prism and splits into seven colours, the Divine, who is non-dual, appears as assorted names and forms as a result of Māyā.^[v] Therefore, according to the Vedas, ‘Environment’ should be understood with the connotation of ‘Brahman’^[vi]. Thus, there exists unity among all entities that are born and nourished in the compassionate lap of ‘Mother Nature’.

The term “Environment/Nature” must not be limited to trees, animals, birds, rivers and mountains, rather “It” is internal, external, individual, cosmic, exclusive and non-exclusive. It is to be recognised that it is human’s inner contamination, unrest, and mental greed that manifests as external pollutions, and disharmony. ‘Mother Nature,’ nurtures every being till we respect Her. However, if we try to exploit Her, She responds internally as metal stress, physically as diseases, environmentally as natural calamities, and universally as cumulative disharmony. Outer acts of environmental protection can aid us in our mission to support the cosmos, but they are far from being a permanent cure for cosmic discord. In this regard, Svāmī Vivekānanda aptly states,

“The miseries of the world cannot be cured by physical help alone. Unless a man’s nature changes, physical needs will continue to arise and miseries will continue to be felt. No amount of physical help will cure these miseries. Ignorance is the mother of all evils and of the misery that we see. Let man have light, let them be pure, spiritually strong and educated; then alone misery will cease. We may convert every house of the country into a charitable asylum and fill the land with hospitals but the misery will continue to exist until man’s character changes”^[vii]

It is essential to recognise that each life and form has a crucial role to play in the grand scheme of the universe. Realisation of non-duality with all lives leads to harmony in the truest sense declares the Yajurveda,

He who sees the Self in all and all in the Self has no sense of revulsion by the reason of the vision of non-duality. When all beings have been realized as the ‘Self’ there remains no delusion and no sadness.^[viii]

The Vedas regard ‘Nature’ as all-encompassing and holds an intimate relationship with It. They refer to ‘It’ as not only the ‘Highest Reality,’ but also revere Its various manifestations (sun, moon, rivers, birds, etc.) as mother, father, protector, friend, son, and more. ‘Environment’ is that ‘Unitary Principle’ which the Vedas have spoken about repeatedly. All beings of the universe are indwelled, saturated and are that very ‘Principle’ which they mistakenly consider as distinct. This non-dual Vedic vision elevates ‘Mother Nature’ to the highest plinth. As a result, the Vedas instruct us to work for the good of all beings instead of being limited to only the human race. Let us now consider some Vedic averments about Environmental harmony.

The Divine Pan͂camāhābhūtas

‘Bhūmi’ is depicted by the Vedas as a compassionate, benevolent, nurturing, and bountiful ‘Mother’ who nurtures all creatures without discrimination. She is revered, and hymns of Her majesty adorn the entire body of the Vedas.  She is the one who bestows cosmic peace and prosperity. Her grandeur can be understood by the following verses,

The ‘Earth’ just like the Mother Cow, confers upon all the creatures the gifts of delight. She nurtures and provides for all.^[ix] May Goddess Earth, the nourisher of all beings eradicates all evils and lead us to the highest state of being.^[x]

‘Āpaḥ’ is regarded by the Vedas as ‘Divine’ ‘Life’, ‘Nectar’ and as the finest of ‘Physicians’. It is no wonder that all important pilgrimages were set up near water bodies. The Vedas declare water as the best of medicines.^[xi] In Its absence no medicine can work and it is the greatest of healers.^[xii] It can cure all maladies including genetic and cardiovascular disorders. In this regard the Vedas state:

May the ‘Divine Waters’ protect us and flow down on us for quenching our thirst and lead us to peace and perfection. You are You are the Mighty One.^[xiii] We seek your healing powers.^[xiv]

Unfortunately, man has exploited water bodies in the most heinous manner. Water pollution causes a variety of problems, including the degradation of aquatic ecosystems caused by excessive use of chemicals and pathogens, plastic debris, sewage pesticides, industrial leaks, and hydraulic fracturing, to name a few. Water pollution has damaged the health and beauty of the water bodies, the well-being of aquatic species and the overall health of the planet. It has also negatively impacted the quality of plants, trees, and crops. It is to be remembered that in the wellness of life-enriching waters bodies lies the wellness of the entire cosmos.

‘Vāyu’ is the life force, and the cosmic breath. The Vedas contain a number of hymns that extol ‘It.’ The meaning of the word ‘Vāyu’ as the ‘Uniting Ultimate Principle’ has been expounded in the Śatapathabrāhmaṇa,

The entire universe is woven in a string and that string is ‘Vāyu’.^[xv]

Therefore, the word ‘Vāyu’ has a broader meaning and is only casually translated as ‘Air’ which has a much-limited connotation. ‘Vāyu’ is itself living and thus ‘It’ becomes the essence of life. Unfortunately, the human race has done incalculable harm to ‘It’ while shrouded in ignorance. Polluted air not only endangers humans, but it also harms animals, birds, and puts undue strain on trees and plants. Every year, thousands of humans, animals, and birds die prematurely as a result of air pollution.^[xvi]

‘Ākāśa’ and sound are inextricably linked, and this is the source of noise pollution. Taittiryopaniṣad (Yajurveda) discusses two types of Ākāśa i.e., one within the body and one outside of it.^[xvii] However, human has not only polluted his inner space but is going on polluting the outer spaces. All of this has not only added to the planet’s pollution but in his desire to conquer outer space, he has added to space debris.  The Yajurveda advises the human race:

Do not destroy the space ^[xviii]

‘Agni’ is both divine and purifying. ‘It’ is the destroyer of greed, passion, and ignorance on a philosophical level. At a mundane level, it is the destroyer of negativities and diseases. In a spiritual sense, It burns away selfish desires and leads to a state where cosmic welfare becomes one’s vision and mission. According to the Yajurveda’s Navagṛhasūktam:

The light of wisdom Agni! Let us be vigilant while we work for ourselves and for all creatures of the cosmos. May we all remain together, even with the departed souls of our forefathers with whom you connect us like a thread.^[xix]

Therefore, it is clear that Fire is meant for the benefit of all. Unfortunately, humans manipulate it in the most atrocious manner. Fire is used to burn down forests and various animals that live in them in order to capture land for the sake of high-end infrastructure. It is used to incite riots and destroy national property, as well as to burn a young girl for dowry. All of these crimes sprout from tainted internal states, and as long as we do not burn the dirt that we hold within, we will go on destroying the world.

The Celestial Plant Kingdom and Forests

The Vedic verses revere forests, trees, plants and herbs as conscious divine beings that provide Amṛta (oxygen), Ouśadhi (herbs), Anna (food), Phala (fruits), Puṣpa (flowers), Cāyā (shade), Saundarya (beauty) and Jīvan (life). Tree are encrusted with divinity and so, the five parts that they have – Jada (roots), Prakāṇda (trunk), Śākhā (branches), Patra (leaves), Phala (fruits) and Puṣpa (flowers) are a boon to the universe. They are called Viśadūśaṇī’^[xx] because they are the destroyers of poison (pollution). Therefore, uprooting a tree means uprooting the entire cosmos, and cutting down a tree means cutting down one’s own survival. In this regard the Vedas make it clear,

Extend no violence towards Trees.^[xxi] Do not cut or uproot them for they are the destroyers of pollution ^[xxii] Forests, trees, herbs and mountains are said to be the protectors of all.^[xxiii]

The Ṛigveda further highlights,

‘The Divine trees and curative herbs appeared three Yugas before the emergence of Deities and billions of years before the origin of any other being. The ‘Divine’ manifested as trees, herbs and plants at various places on the earth. These Godly appearances were meant to destroy pain, suffering, ailments and heal wounds of all living creatures. They further remove infections and weakness. They have a positive and wholesome effect and lead to complete wellness. Trees and herbs nurture, protect and bless all lives with material and spiritual advancement like a mother and thus they are also referred to as ‘Mātraḥ’. The Holy Trees and plants lead us to Mokṣa by destroying diseases, misery and take us beyond the realm of birth and death. Trees and herbs have supreme powers and those creatures who submit to them are bestowed with lifelong wellness. Without any discrimination between man and animal, these saintly trees and herbs have equally blessed all beings.^[xxiv]

The Vedas also declare that the plant kingdom is conscious and sensitive, like humans and animals. They are born, they die, they experience pain-pleasure, they sleep, they are susceptible to illness, and they bleed when they are broken, uprooted, or cut down.^[xxv] The Mahābhārata in this regard states:

“Trees and plants drink water through their roots and make their food through sunlight. They digest the food due to the presence of Vāyu and Agni that is within them. When they are injured, they experience unimaginable pain. They are affected by pleasant and foul smells. They do fall sick and feel weakness and wellness. A creeper exactly knows how and where to climb, this proves that they have a divine vision (in Indian philosophy vision and sight are separate. A being may not have sight which is connected to material eyes but it has a vision which is connected to the inner states of being). Despite being physically strong, trees are extremely sensitive to weather, kind-harsh words, pure-impure thoughts, good-bad touch^’.[xxvi]

‘Vana’ is home to millions of celestial beings. Forests add to the aesthetics of the planet. The Vedas, in fact, see the entire universe as a forest in which all beings must live according to their Dharma. However, today, man has turned a deaf ear to the Vedic voices. Deforestation has resulted in the destruction of biodiversity, decreased oxygen, extinction of plant and animal species, damaged ozone layer, global warming, natural disasters, and climate change.

Yajña, Maṇtras, Balī  and Animals

‘Yajña or Havan’ promotes environmental wellness, quality of life, atmospheric purity, inner and outer well-being. Scientifically, Yajña produces gases like ethyl oxide (C2H4O), propylene (C3H6), acetylene (C2H2), and others^[xxvii] that combat pollution and balances O₂ (oxygen) and CO₂ (carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere. The Yajurveda discusses the removal of various pollutions; tranquility, prosperity, cosmic health; glories of trees, benefits of seasons and more through Yajña.^[xxviii] Dr.Swami Satya Prakash Saraswati in his book ‘Aum Agnihotra-An Ancient Process of Fumigation (A Study From the Chemical Standpoint)’ states:

“in the materials of Agnihotra some elements produce the formaldehyde gas(CH₂O) which spreads in the atmosphere without undergoing any change. Even carbon dioxide (CO₂) transforms to a large extent into formaldehyde gas (CH₂O) which is a strong germicide. This gas is activated only when it comes in contact with water vapours. This is the reason why the Havankuṇda is sprinkled with water from all four sides.” ^[xxix]

‘Maṇtra’ is a sacred and scientific collection of words, sounds, phonemes, and syllables. It is a codification of a certain cosmic force that links the material world and the Supreme Consciousness. Maṇtras are the primordial rhythms of creation^[xxx] that bring about harmony within and without, on an individual as well as on the cosmic level, in the Pañcamāhābhūtas and for the sake of Sarvbhūtahita.

‘Balī’ is a widely misunderstood word. If one comprehends the Vedic wisdom, he will conclude that Vedic teachings and rituals are meant for cosmic concord. This vision of coherence stems from the recognition that we are all interrelated, necessitating the development of ethical norms of behaviour toward oneself and the entire creation.  Nevertheless, a few misinterpret the Vedic rituals and deem them to be such in which an animal is sacrificed in order to appease a Deity and earn rewards. In the Śābarabhāṣya inflicting of injury has been pronounced forbidden. It is said that ‘Śyena’ which may be interpreted as “a ceremony where the intention is to cause harm to others” is not propagated in the Vedas, rather, the text announce,

“If a man desires Śyena (inflicting injury upon another), one must do so entirely because he wishes and not because of any text”^[xxxi]

The Practice of ‘Ahiṃsā’ is the foundation of Indian thought and appears in the Śatapathabrahman as ‘Non-injury’ with the connotation of morality. The Vedas repeatedly instruct that animals must not be harmed. However, man’s self-centred approach has driven him to purposefully misconstrue the Vedic voices. The Yajurveda declares:

“Animals are not to be killed or harmed .^[xxxii] They are the bedrock of a prosperous society.^[xxxiii] Animals should be protected and must live fearlessly.^[xxxiv]

Today, a few deceitful scholars claim that the Vedas is in favour of animal sacrifice (paśu balī).’ However, this is a blatantly fallacious elucidation. Just as in the English language there are Homonyms^[xxxv], i.e. the word ‘Round’ could mean circle, interview round, moving aimlessly or talking in a way that confuses someone. Similarly, the word ‘Balī’ has many meanings. Let’s have a look at the same:

• ‘Balī’ is the technical terminology for ‘Wrinkles’ in the Rasaśāstra (Ayurveda).^[xxxvi]
• ‘Balī’ is one of the 108 names of Lord Kṛṣna.^[xxxvii]
• ‘Balī’ is the name of the Demon King ‘Mahābalī’ and means ‘The One With Great Power and Strength’.^[xxxviii]
• Balī’ refers to an austere or hermit.^[xxxix]
• ‘Balī’ connotes to ‘Balīdāna’ (self-sacrificing one’s comforts, alms, food or time for the sake of others).
• ‘Balī’ is the name of the King of the Yādavas^[xl]
• ‘Balī’ is the name of the Vānararāja Ānav^[xli] in the great epic Māhābhārata.
• ‘Balī’ is the daily Dāna offered to sages, humans, dogs, cows, and crows.^[xlii]
• The term ‘Balī’ also suggests a compulsory tax or levy that is given to the King.^[xliii]
• ‘Balī’ refers to a Deity who protects the Pātālaloka.^[xliv]
• ‘Balī’ means a ceremonial food offering to Lord who protects all in accordance to the Śaivāgamas.^[xlv]
• ‘Balī’ is used in Vāstuśāstra for a diagram with eighty-one squares and a cluster of Deities that are drawn on the ground and where the structural construction has to take place.^[xlvi]
• ‘Balī’ in Jainism, refers to the name of the sixth Prativāsudeva.^[xlvii]

Let us now also have a look at the various meanings of the word ‘Paśu’.

• ‘Paśu’ is the individual soul (including human) in Śaiva Siddhānta while Patī is ‘Supreme Śiva’.^[xlviii]
• ‘Paśu’ refers to all embodied souls (humans included) in the cosmos in the Śhilpaśāstra.^[xlix]
• As per Vāyupurāṇa, Ṛṣi Kaśyapa is said to be the ancestor of Paśus (humans, animals and plants) along with Gaṇdharva, Devas and Asuras^[l] suggesting that despite varied forms we all have the same roots.

From the foregoing, it becomes clear that the word ‘Paśu’ doesn’t refer to merely an animal nor does the word ‘Balī’ mean ‘killing’. Thus, Paśu Balī’  cannot be interpreted as ‘Animal Sacrifice’. This notion appears to be imposed on the Vedas which are far from promoting any ceremony involving violence or injury to any life. The misinterpretation of the word ‘Balī’ can be attributed to a variety of factors, such as:

• A lack of grasp of the original texts and the approach required to interpret them (i.e. in accordance with Deśa-Kāla-Paristhiti.
• Inadequate knowledge of San
• Studying the Vedas with preconceived notions and biases.
• Resolutely misinterpreting the Vedic to promote violence, disharmony and non-vegetarianism.
• Deliberately undermining the Vedas as a text of authority in order to destroy Vedic culture, philosophy, and history in the long run.

Today, ‘Animals, Birds, and All Sentient Beings’ exist in fright. Rooted in ignorance, man has exploited them to the point of absurdity. He slaughters them savagely for their skin, organs, hanging them up as a piece of décor, or just devouring them as a meal. The pitiful condition of these celestial beings is a question mark on human morals, ethics, education and life. Contrary to this view, animals have been revered in the Vedas as ‘Ṣodaśkalāḥ (bejewelled with sixteen celestial arts)^[li]  and as ‘Maḥ (worthy of worship for their love and grace).^[lii] They have adorned Indian culture, art, architecture, philosophy, religion, traditions and life in general. The Vedic texts consider them to be the manifestation of God (Vibhūtis).^[liii] In this regard states the Vibhūtiyogaḥ of the Śrīmad Bhagwadgīta,

Amongst the horses I am ‘Ucchaṣvā’ that emerged during the churning of the ocean. Amongst the elephants, know Me as ‘Airāvta’, Amongst the cows, I am ‘Kāmadhenu’. Amongst snakes, I am the ‘King Vāsuki’. Amongst the Nāgas, I am ‘Ananta’ and amongst water beings, I exist as ‘Varuṇadeva’. Amongst the animals, I am ‘Mṛga’, ‘Siṁha’ and amongst birds, I am ‘Gruḍa’. As a purifier of all lives, I am ‘Vāyu’. Amongst the beings of sea, I am ‘Magara’ and amongst sacred rivers, I am ‘The Gaṇgā.’^[liv] I exist as the Ātman in the hearts of all living creatures and I am the beginning, middle and end of all these beings.^[lv]

Each animal, bird and insect is associated with a Deity and embodies Its energies. Thus, revering that animal necessitates adoring that Deity. Bulls, dogs, snakes and scorpions are associated with Lord Śiva. Elephants are worshiped as ‘Gaṇeśa’. Lions are associated with ‘Ādi Śakti Durgā’. Crocodiles are connected to ‘Goddess Gaṇgā and Yamunā’. Further, in order to re-establish Dharma, ‘Mahāviṣṇu’ appears as a Maṭsya, Kūrma, Varāha, Nṛsiṃha and more. Even the smallest of insect is considered Divine. ‘Bhrāmarī’, a wasp who ended the demon Arunāsūra is associated with ‘Goddess Pārvatī’.^[lvi]

Gaumātā holds an extraordinary place in Vedas. Her physical, religious, economic, environmental, social, cosmic, and spiritual vaue is extolled in the Vedas. She is revered as Goddess Lakṣmī^[lvii]and must never be killed or harmed (Aghnayeyam).^[lviii] Vedas annonce Her as a noble being endowed with splendour, divinity, purity, beauty, nonviolence, tranquillity, knowledge, compassion and the ability to nourish all beings.^[lix] A society that invests in Her health and wellness flourishes by leaps and bounds.

‘Ṣvāna (dog)’ is declared as Godly in the Vedas. The Rudramsūkta of the Kṛṣna Yajurveda states,

I bow to Rudra, who controls the dogs, who is Himself the dog and who protects the dogs.^[lx]

The Atharvaveda associates Rudra (A fearsome form of Lord Śiva) with Dogs.^[lxi] The Goddess Dog ‘Saramā’ appears in the Ṛgveda.^[lxii] The text also refers to Dogs as divine messengers and states,

Salutations to the two Divine broad-nosed messengers (Śyamā and Śabla)  who take away our souls. For the sake of leading humans to auspiciousness, you graced mankind by staying amongst them (as dogs).^[lxiii]

Further, in Maṅdala five of the Ṛgveda, Dogs are described as the knower of ‘Herbs’ and ‘All Wise’ suggesting that they have high intuitive powers and high realms of existence.^[lxiv] They are also referred to as ‘Vastoṣpati (the lord and protectors of the house)’.^[lxv] Mahaṛṣi Pāṇini in the Aṣṭādhyāyī, refers to them as ‘Sārmeyaḥ’ (the one whose feet bring luck and prosperity). The great epic Mahābhārata starts and ends with the Divine Dog.^[lxvi] Further, before the battle of Mahābhārata, Arjuna prays to a Dog faced form Goddess Durgā known as ‘Kokāmukha’ Lord Dattātreya who represents the unity of Brahamā-Viṣṇu-Maheśa accepted Dogs as His Guru and Ādi Śaṅkarācārya realized Dogs as the source of all wisdom ‘Vedas’.^[lxvii]

The Vedas in-depth talk of Siṁha, Aṣva, Mayūra, Garuḍa, Sarpa, Maṭsya and other sentient beings. The Śatapathabrahman announces human as also animal.^[lxviii] Birds and animals in the Vedas are described as self-healers and knowers of herbs.^[lxix] They can sense natural disasters and death.^[lxx] The Atharvaveda mentions the establishment of Gauśālā and Paṣuśālā for the protection of aged, injured, handicapped, and ill animals.^[lxxi] For their well-being, the society must provide these sentient beings with adequate food, medicine, food and fresh water^[lxxii]. The Vedas also announce that these beings live in communities and grieve the death or injury of their members.^[lxxiii] The text further declares,

Animals must live without any fear^[lxxiv]

Conclusion

The Vedas voice that there is comprehensive harmonisation among all aspects of existence. This Vedic principle of ‘Ṛta’ embodies the sublime, regulated and harmonious operation of the cosmos. The text talks about an intrinsic relationship of Self-sameness between an individual and the cosmos. Therefore, just as the human body is the dwelling of an individual being, the cosmos is the divine abode of the Supreme Being and so, if anyone purposes to settle conflicts of any sort (environmental, political, social and more) he/she must initiate with the immediate rather than the mediate, proximate rather than the remote and with the visible rather than the invisible. Further, it is to be lucidly understood that one is never in conflict with others instead the conflict is always with one’s own inner states. The seeds of discord, greed and animosity sprouts within us and manifests into external struggles and pollutions. Therefore, if we want global environmental peace, we must first be at peace with ourselves.

It is evident that the Vedas have a comprehensive outlook towards Cosmic Environmental Harmony. They are embellished with rites, verses, and philosophies that promote universal-welfare. The text recognises everything as being present in the Divine and the Divine being present in all entities. Along these lines, ‘Environment’ is just another name for that ‘Ultimate Reality’. The ‘Environment’ that man elects to harm exists as non-dual from him and so he damages his own survival when he hurts ‘Mother Nature’. This non-dualistic vision can develop only with an education that is scientific, forward looking and wholesome but at the same time it is rooted in ancient wisdom, spirituality and cosmic compassion.

The Vedas advocate an organic cosmology that is devoid of distinctions which makes it a universal and all-encompassing. It is crucial to recognise that these timeless scriptures are incredibly scientific and have influenced many modern breakthroughs, hypotheses, researches and studies. The Vedas are not at odds with science and technology for as long as it serves to promote overall well-being. Only when modern science wishes for human-centric development at the cost of ruthlessly destroying forests, water bodies and animals is when there is a prominent gap between Vedic thought and modern science. Only when the entire cosmos is taken into account with unified vision of wholesome welfare of beings will science be seen as all-encompassing and complete. At present science exists in a very limited space. It is for the humans, of the humans and by the humans. All its developments stand upon the graves of innumerable sentient beings and on the delicate body of ‘Mother Nature’.

As long as man exists in the realms of dualism, he will be the cause of pain, misery and destruction of the world. It is time that the human race contemplates upon the Vedic averments in order to realise tranquility within and in the entire cosmos.

Eko vaśī sarvabhūtāntarātmā ekam rūpam bahudhā yaḥ karoti

(That One alone indwells all beings and That One alone becomes manifold)

                                                                                               -Bṛhdāryaṇakopniṣad,V.2.3.2

 

Author Brief Bio: Dr. Vandana Sharma ‘Diya’ is a well-known Scholar of Advaita Vedānta Darśana. With a Bachelor’s and Master’s degree in Bhārtiya Darśan Śāstra (Indian Philosophy) from the Annamalai University, Tamil Nadu, she went on to study the Advaita Vedānta Darśana and Bhagwadgītā Śaṅkarabhāṣya at the Chinmaya Mission Foundation, Ernakulam, Kerala. Dr. Sharma further earned a Ph.D. in Advaita Vedānta from the same university. She has to her credit several research articles published in national and international journals.

^[i]Shankaracarya,‘Shrimadbhagvadgitabhashya’, ManavPrabodhanPranyasa, Bikaner,Rajasthan,2016,pp.146-147(V.9.29).

^[ii]Swami Gambhirananda(Tr),‘Eight Upanishads:Isa,Kena,Katha,Taittirya,Vol.1 with commentary of Shankaracharya’,Advaita Ashrama,Himalayas,1957,pp.4-6.(V.1,Ishopnishad)

^[iii]Swami Nikhilananda,‘The Upnishad-Taittirya and Chandogya with Commentary of ShankarAcharyaa,Vol.4,(Chandogya Upanishad)’, Harper & Brothers Publisher,New York,1959,pp.294-295(V.6.2.3).

^[iv]Griffith Ralph T.H,‘The Rigveda’,Védico Antiguo Einglés,Spain,1896,p.275(V.1.164.46).

^[v]Maya-power through which the ‘One Infinite’ appears as ‘Diverse Finite’.

^[vi]Brahman-the Ultimate Principle.

^[vii]Swami Vivekananda,‘Complete Works of Swami Vivekananda’, Partha Sinha Digital Publication,2019, p.36.

^[viii]Swami Gambhirananda,p.12-13,(V.6, Ishavasyaopnishad, Yajurveda)

^[ix]Rigveda, Durvamrittikasuktam,V.5(10^th Mandal);Also see Mahanarayanopnishad.

^[x]Mahanarayanopnishad (V.10.1.9)

^[xi]Rigveda,V.1.23.20.

^[xii]Ibid, V.1.5.4.

^[xiii]Ibid,Hiranyagarbhasuktam,V.121.7-121.8.

^[xiv]Yajurveda,Taittiriya Aranyaka,V.4.42.19.

^[xv] Raja Ram Mohan Roy,‘Vedic Physics, Scientific Origin of Hinduism’,Golden Egg Publishing,Toronto,1999, p.84.(V.1.192,Jaiminiya Brahman;V.1.24,Yajurveda;V.8.7,3.10,Shatapathabrahman).

^[xvi]Wikipedia Contributors, 2021, ‘Air Pollution’.

^[xvii]Swami Gambhirananda,p.248,V.1.6.1,Taittiriyaopanshad(sayaeśoantarhṛdyaākāśḥ।)

^[xviii]Yajurveda,V.5.43.

^[xix]Ibid,Vajasaneyisamhita,Navgrahasuktam,V.5;15.55.5.

^[xx]Atharvaveda,V8.7.4.

^[xxi]Yajurveda V.6.22.

^[xxii]Rigveda, V.14.8.

^[xxiii]Ibid., V.5.41.11,p.72.

^[xxiv]Rigveda,Oushadhisukta,10.97.1-10.97.23

^[xxv]Dwivedi Kapildev,pp.79-80.

^[xxvi]Mahabharata, Shantiparva,V.184.10-18.

^[xxvii]Dwivedi Kapildev,p.278.

^[xxviii]Yajurveda,Ch.18,Maṇtra;1-29

^[xxix]Swami Prakash Satya,‘Aum Agnihotra-An Ancient Process  of Fumigation(A Study From the Chemical Standpoint)’, Jan Gyan Prakashan,India,1974,pp.71-73.

^[xxx] Holdrege Barbara,‘Veda and Torah: Transcending the Textuality of Scripture’,Sunny Press,New York,1996,pp.347.

^[xxxi]Jha Ganganatha,‘Shbarabhashya’,Oriental Institute,SadhnaPress,Badroda,1933,p.7.

^[xxxii]Atharvaveda,V.7.73.8,‘Aghnyeyama’.

^[xxxiii]Samaveda,Tandayabrahman;V.13.1.3(sarvampaśubhirvindate).

^[xxxiv]Yajurveda;V.36.22,(abhayaṁ aḥ paśubhyaḥ|).

^[xxxv]Homonyms-Words with same spelling,pronunciations but different meanings.

^[xxxvi]WisdomLib, 2015, ‘Rasashastra’, www.wisdomlib.org.

^[xxxvii]Fifty-eighth name of Lord Krishna(Om Baline Namaha)

^[xxxviii]Williams George,‘Handbook of Hindu Mythology’,Oxford University Press, London,2008,pp.73–74.

^[xxxix]Wisdom Lib, 2020, ‘Bali’, wwwwisdomlib.org.

^[xl]Bhagavata, Skandha,V.10.

^[xli]Harivaṃśa,V.1.31;Ch.9:Mahabharata, Ādiparva

^[xlii]See Panchmahayajna

^[xliii]Bhagavatapurana, V.I.13,40-41; II.31, 48,.

^[xliv]Parākhyatantra, V. 5.44-45 (10^thcen Saiva-Siddhanta Tantra work).

^[xlv]Wisdom Lib, 2015, ‘Saivism’.

^[xlvi]Ibid.

^[xlvii]Prativasudevas are those who are considered anti-heroic.

^[xlviii]Banerjee Jitendra Nath, ‘The Hindu Concept of God’, America Star Books, Maryland, 2011, pp.51-59

^[xlix]Ibid, ‘pp.51-59

^[l]Vayupurana,V.69.290

^[li]Samveda,Tandayabrahman,6.12.2(ṣodaśkalāḥkalāḥ)

^[lii]Shatpatbrahman,V.11.8.1.3(paśvovaimaḥ)

^[liii]Shankaracarya,‘Shrimadbhagvadgitabhashya’,Ch.10:Vibhūtiyogaḥ.

^[liv]Shankaracarya,‘Shrimadbhagvadgitabhashya’,V.10.27-10.31,pp.157-158

^[lv]Ibid, V.10.20,p.155

^[lvi] Devibhagvatam, ch.13, sacred-texts.com

^[lvii]Atharvaveda,V.2.26.3.

^[lviii]Ibid,V.7.73.8

^[lix]Ibid,V.1.4.2.53-58

^[lx]Yajurveda,Taittiryasamhita Rudramsukta,V.4.5.4.

^[lxi]Atharvaveda,V.11.12.30.

^[lxii]Ibid,1.62.3;1.72.8;3.31.6; 4.16.8; 5.45.7;5.45.8

^[lxiii]Rigveda,Yamasuktam,V.10.4.12.

^[lxiv]Ibid,V.45.8

^[lxv]Ibid,V.7.55.1-5

^[lxvi]Mahabharat begins with Janmejaya and his brothers, who are preparing to execute a sacrificial ceremony. When suddenly, a puppy appeared, the brothers hit him ruthlessly. The injured puppy ran to its mother, sobbing, and recounted the storey. “Why was my child beaten up when he had committed no crime?” the mother went and asked the brothers. She thus, cursed them and the marks the start of Mahabharata.  The great epic concludes with Yudhishthir refusing to enter heaven without his dog, only to discover that the dog was none but Lord in disguise.

^[lxvii]Vidyarayana Madhava, Swami  Tapasyananda (Tr), ‘Shankara Digvijay’, Ramakrishna Matha, Chennai, 2008, pp.60

^[lxviii]Shatapathabrahmana,V.3.8.4.1.

^[lxix]Atharvaveda,V.8.7.23-25

^[lxx]Yajurveda,V.24.20(vasantāyekapiṅjalāna).

^[lxxi]Atharvaved,V.3.14.1-6

^[lxxii]Ibid,V.7.13.11;7.75.1-2

^[lxxiii]Rigveda,V.8.46.31(carthegaṇe, śivatneṣu)

^[lxxiv]Yajurveda,V.36.22.

Introduction

The nature of international relations has been constantly changing over decades and centuries, as the nature of threats to humankind’s continued survival has been evolving. If the transition from the 19^th to the 20^th century saw the emergence and the re-emergence of the conflicts over physical boundaries between states comprising the international system, then the transition from the 20^th to the 21^st century saw the emergence of the non-state actor as a potent threat in international relations. The 21^st century, as juxtaposed to the previous centuries, is undergoing a host of changes ranging from cyber warfare to increase in artificial intelligence to biological warfare to the emergence of a global scale pandemic—all of which seriously threaten the continued existence of humankind. What has also become identified as a potent threat in the 21^st century is climate change. While climate change per se did not emerge overnight and is an outcome of centuries of pollution, the problem has reached alarming levels given the massive number of changes taking place owing to climate change. What is more worrisome is the fact that while climate change has been recognised as a threat to humankind, states of the international system still undertake an outdated, almost territorial approach on the issue, refusing to take responsibility for change and trying to extract maximum benefits out of the existing international system for the fulfilment of their own narrow selfish interests.

The challenge becomes a type of protracted conflict as developed countries of the rich North constantly seek to evade their historic responsibility for polluting the world for decades, while trying to put emission caps on the developing world. For the developing world this becomes challenging as levels of development are directly proportional with carbon emissions. A halt to emissions also means a halt to economic development which in turn will jeopardise the lives of billions living in the developing world.

In the recent past India and China have often joined hands at climate change negotiations to remind the developed rich North of their historic responsibility for climate change and to negotiate caps on emissions in accordance with countries’ responsibilities for global warming. However, what has also been witnessed with regards to China is a peculiarity in this context. While China is a developing country and does not have the same historic responsibility as the developed world, China currently is also the biggest emitter of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, and it accounted for more than 27 percent of total global emissions in 2020 (BBC, 2021). China emits more greenhouse gases than the entire developed world, with the US being the second largest emitter at 11 percent while India was third with 6.6 percent of the emissions (Ibid.).

China’s emissions have more than tripled in the past three decades. In fact, while Xi Jinping previously stated that China would strictly control coal fired generation projects, China has only been increasing construction of coal-fired plants (Volvovicci, Brunstrom and Nichols, 2021). State owned Bank of China has been constantly financing overseas coal projects with its funding reaching USD 35 billion since 2015 (Stanway, 2021). In September this year, Xi Jinping stated that China will not build new coal fired projects abroad. However, facts on the ground state something else, as the energy crisis that China finds itself amidst will push China to consume more coal to ensure continued electricity supply. Power cuts of various magnitudes have been witnessed in at least 20 provinces across China since mid-August this year. Shortage of coal supplies, tougher government mandates to reduce emissions and a greater demand from manufacturers have all contributed to the current situation (Lee, 2021). The energy crisis has halted production in various factories across China, which is going to have an impact on an already slowing economy. Therefore, China will have to balance its act between clean energy and declining growth rates. In this context, it becomes pertinent to look at some of the pledges Xi has made in the past regarding usage of clean energy.

Xi’s pledges regarding combating climate change

Even though Xi Jinping did not attend the COP 26 this year, he had announced last year that China’s carbon emissions will begin to decline by 2030 and that China will reach carbon neutrality by 2060 (Ibid.). For the purpose, China introduced a dual control policy which requires Chinese provinces to limit energy use and to cut energy intensity, which is defined as the amount of energy used per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The dual control system was first set in China’s 11^th Five Year Plan (2006-10). However, it has gained in significance post Xi assuming the reins of power and committing to China peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and to becoming carbon neutral by 2060 (CGTN, 2021). The plan was to set a five-year target of energy consumption and energy intensity for different provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in an effort to reasonably manage the indicators of total energy consumption and energy intensity (Ibid.).

During the 2015-2020 period, China had a national target for a reduction in energy intensity of 15 percent. The latest five-year plan adopted in March this year targeted a further 13.5 percent cut by 2025 (Gao, 2021). Because of these plans, phased goals were set in place, and it was assumed that by 2025 the dual control system would be more complete with better allocation of energy resources and better energy utilisation. In this context, it becomes pertinent to take a closer look at how Chinese provinces have performed with regard to the dual control system.

In mid-August this year, China’s economic planning agency announced that 20 provinces had failed to meet their targets in the first half of 2021 (Lee, 2021). In late 2020, several provinces were reported to be struggling to meet their targets, as difficulties got exacerbated by COVID19. Some provinces even took drastic measures of cutting off power supplies to comply with the targets. This led to a realisation that an examination of the efficacy of those targets are needed. In the meantime, China’s carbon emissions went up 15 percent year in year in the first quarter of 2021 (Xie, 2021).

To deal with the possibilities of further power shortages, China is pushing miners to ramp up coal production and is increasing imports so that power stations can rebuild stockpiles before the winter heating season begins (Singh and Xu, 2021). China’s imports of coal jumped 76 percent in September this year from a year ago (National Development and Reform Commission, 2021). This is despite the pressures and the announcements made to meet targets for reducing carbon emissions. In addition to the impacts of the dual control policy, China’s thermal coal supplies have also been impacted by the recent floods in Shanxi province which is a key coal producing province (Reuters, 2021). China is already the world’s largest coal consumer and of late it has been grappling with a growing energy crisis brought on by shortages caused by natural as well as humanmade causes. The result has been shortages and record high prices.

A closer observation at China’s emissions reveals that while per person China’s emissions are about half of those of the US, its 1.4 billion population and its breakneck speed economic growth, reliant heavily upon coal energy; have pushed it way ahead of other countries in terms of overall emissions. It was first in 2006 that China became the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2006 and is now responsible for more than a quarter of the world’s overall greenhouse gas emissions (Brown, 2021). Instead of shutting down coalfired power stations, China is actually building new ones at more than 60 locations across the country with many sites having more than one plant (Ibid.). In this context, it becomes pertinent to understand China’s coal reliance. The following graph shows how coal consumption has grown over the years in China.

Graph 1: China’s Total Coal Energy Consumption

Unit: 10,000 tons

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Books 1991-2018, People’s Republic of China

Beginning from the 1990s onwards, China’s reliance on coal to spur economic development began. Its coal consumption has only grown over the years as seen in graph 1, in tandem with its economic growth rates. China’s coal consumption grew from 1.36 billion tonnes per year in the year 2000 to 4.24 billion tonnes per year in 2013, which represents an annual growth rate of 12 per cent (Qi and Lu, 2016). By 2015 itself, China accounted for 50 per cent of the global demand for coal (Ibid.).

In fact, in 2020 during the pandemic, China was the only major industrial power whose carbon emissions rose, as the central government relaxed a traffic light system designed to reduce overcapacity among coal burning state owned enterprises with a plethora of coal power projects given the go ahead (Cash, 2021). Because of China’s coal addiction, it faces the difficulties of energies transition. What also remains a big hurdle is the existence of big energy and manufacturing lobbies which laud the central government’s placing of higher emission caps while these big polluting lobbies continue their pollution spree.

In 2019, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), issued a new policy for reorganising the state-owned enterprises which dominate coal generation. The first of such an announcement was made in November 2019, followed by a more detailed statement in May 20 (Huidian Dianping, 2019). The details listed were about reorganisation efforts in the Northwest region, where coal overcapacity and financial losses are maximum. The SASAC had also stated that the plans would likely be expanded to other coal intensive parts of the country. The plan called for stricter controls of coal capacity, elimination of outdated capacity, reductions in coal-fired capacity for the Northwestern region and mergers of SOEs to form a single coal generation SOE for each of the provinces in the region (Dupuy, 2020). While the SASAC’s plans are laudable, it was argued that the plans for consolidation of ownership threaten the wholesale electricity markets that the National Development and Reform Commission was fostering and that SASAC’s planned mergers would dampen competition (Ibid).

Ma Jun, the director of the Institute of Planning and Environmental Affairs, which tracks environmental and climate records of big corporations stated that achieving climate targets while fulfilling other demanding targets needs a good transitioning strategy and so far, there are still major gaps (Stanway, 2021). China has a per capita level of carbon dioxide emissions that is far above that of countries with a similar level of per capita GDP (AFP, 2021). In fact, in 2019, China’s per capita emissions reached 10.1 tons, almost tripling over the las two decades. This was just slightly below average levels across the OECD bloc, which stood at 10.5 tons per capita in 2019. China’s per capita emissions even though significantly lower than the U.S. at 17.6 tons per capita still is significantly high. According to Larsen, Pitt, Grant and Houser (2021), China’s per capita emissions exceeded the OECD average in 2020, as China’s net greenhouse gas emissions grew about 1.7 percent while emissions from almost all the other countries declined sharply during the pandemic (Larsen, Pitt, Grant and Houser, 2021).

China’s carbon dioxide emissions rose by 9 percent in the first quarter of 2021 as compared to pre-pandemic levels (Reuters, 2021). This rise was driven by a carbon intensive economic recovery and massive hikes in outputs of steel and cement, which in turn rose as part of the attempts to reinvigorate and jump start the economy as part of post pandemic recoveries. Output from the industry and construction sector increased by 2.8 percent, steel by 7 percent and cement and coal mining by 2.5 percent and 1.4 percent respectively last year (Bloomberg, 2021). This raises questions whether the country can meet its 2060 carbon neutrality pledge. As such, China’s energy trajectory since COP 21 contradicts the goals. Even though the new five-year plan of 2021-2025 shows a lot of intent regarding carbon neutrality, numbers give out a completely different story. In this context it becomes pertinent to analyse China’s COP 21 goals.

China’s Between COP21 and COP26: Xi’s Pledges

In 2015, at the COP 21, Xi, while urging developed countries to fulfil their commitments to providing funds to developing countries to tackle climate change, pledged that China has plans to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 (Liu, 2015). He had also pledged that China would become carbon neutral before 2060. In 2021, even though Xi did not attend the COP26, China submitted its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to fight climate change, which were published on the website of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which showed that China aims to see its carbon dioxide emissions peak before 2030 and it aims to become carbon neutral before 2060. This was in tandem with the pledges Xi had made earlier. The point to remember is that the NDCs are non-binding national climate change plans that must be submitted regularly to the United Nations as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement and countries may enhance their ambitions if they are able to do so.

This year, ahead of the COP 26, China enhanced its ambitions, as it committed to raising the share of non-fossil fuels in its primary energy consumption to 25 percent by 2030, which is higher than its previous pledge of 20 percent. China also pledged to increasing its wind and solar power capacity to more than 1,200 gigawatts. China is already leading the world in renewable energy production figures, and it is the world’s largest producer of solar and wind energy (OECD, 2021). It also is the largest domestic and outbound investor in renewable energy (Jaeger, Joffe, Song, 2017). In 2016 itself, a year after COP 21, four of the world’s five biggest renewable energy deals were made by Chinese companies (Slezak, 2017). By 2017, China owned five of the world’s six largest solar module manufacturing companies and the world’s largest turbine manufacturer (Mooney, 2017). In fact, solar energy is slated to become the largest primary source of energy by 2035. China’s wind and solar capacity is to rise to above 1,200 GW in 2030 from 530 GW in 2020 (Pillai, 2021).

However, what is also a factor to consider in China’s futures in the realm of carbon neutrality is that urbanisation currently stands at 65 percent, and this will go up to 78 percent in 2050 (Ibid). Population and economic development will continue to increase as well, implying a growth in electricity consumption. Economic growth remains a top priority, as stated at the annual ‘two sessions’ in March (Liu, Liu and You, 2021). While China has made strides in renewable energy, fact remains that it is not adequately developed to meet the needs of the entire country. Su Wei, the deputy general of the National Development and Reform Commission stated in April this year that China’s energy structure is dominated by coal power, and that as compared to wind and solar power which are “intermittent and unstable” coal is a stable source of power. He also said that while coal is readily available, renewable energy needs to develop further in China. He added that because of this, for a period of time, China will need to use coal power (Cheng, 2021). This is in complete contrast to Xi’s statements of April this year when he had said that the country will reduce coal usage beginning in 2026 (Ibid.)

In addition to Su’s statement being in complete juxtaposition to what Xi had said in April regarding reducing dependence on coal, point also to note is that China, as stated previously is grappling with its worst electricity shortages in years and has asked miners to increase coal production to supply major power plants! China relies on coal-fired power generation, which is a huge contributor to carbon emissions! Also, the complete absence of Xi Jinping on COP26 also brings forth several questions on China’s seriousness regarding dealing with issues of climate change. Xi delivered a written statement to the opening session of the COP26, which however, did not offer any new climate pledges than what Xi had already made in the past.

Even though China’s 14^th five-year plan (2021-26) has outlined an 18 percent reduction target for carbon dioxide intensity and a 13.5 percent reduction target for energy intensity from 2021 to 2025, and has introduced the idea of an emissions cap, it has not really gone so far as to set one (Liu, Liu and You, 2021). However, as displayed by the power crunch this year, which prompted China to redirect support to polluting fossil fuels, China faces an immense difficulty of balancing long-term climate goals with short term energy security. The reason why China did not make any new commitments at the COP 26 is the prevailing domestic uncertainties, because of which China has been hesitant to embrace stronger near-term targets.

Conclusion

China’s strides in renewable energy undoubtedly are laudable and in fact make it in a position to steer discussions on climate change and how to address the challenges. Because of these strides, China felt it was in a place to demonstrate global leadership, which is why after joining the Paris Agreement, China made laudable pledges to combat climate change including plans to reduce carbon dependence. The reinvigorated emphasis on the dual control policy was a step to combat coal usage in China. However, as stated previously, 20 provinces had failed to meet their targets as part of the dual control policy! Also, because of the historical dependence China has on coal, the introduction of sudden controls on coal usage led to a shortage of electricity in the country, which in turn led policymakers to revert to usage of fossil fuels. Additionally, the floods in coal producing provinces like Shanxi dealt a blow to electricity production, which in turn spurred the power outages across the country.

China’s dependence and addiction to coal is displayed by the fact that China delivered 60 train loads of coal to Henan province per day in July when the province reported urgent shortages of fuel to generate electricity, after major transport routes were blocked by an unprecedented deluge (Global Times, 2021). China’s plans thus seem to be in complete contradiction with the pledges Xi had made. Also, as reflected by the failure of 20 provinces to meet coal reduction targets, there is a dangerous lack of urgency in the country. Because of the back and forth between announced policies and prevailing ground realities Chinese attempts to assert its role in the world as a leader is clearly not showing up. Achieving a material and socio-economic transformation that supports the move away from coal needs major changes in governance, policies, planning, investment and organisations practices at various levels. The Chinese political economy is dominated by vested interests and complicated by perverse incentives for unsustainable production.

SOEs in energy intensive industries along with several officials with vested interests have zero or limited interest in curbing emissions or adhering to limitations on coal usage. Central officials often acquiesce or fail to rein them in (Green, 2020). On the contrary there have been drastic increases in coal fired power station development in the last few years (Myllyverta, Zhang and Shen, 2020). Research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air shows how hundreds of billions of dollars in the post COVID-19 stimulus being earmarked for energy intensive industrial projects. These exceed the planned spending on low carbon energy threefold!

Facts such as these call for caution regarding China’s pledges on climate change; particularly its 2060 carbon neutral target. Between now and 2060 a lot can happen and from the trends it is visible that the government’s medium-term targets give it space to increase emissions until 2030!  China is actually culpable for greater levels of pollution and global warming, and Xi’s pledges are only a cover for about another decade of fossil fuel based industrial expansion!

Author Brief Bio: Dr. Sriparna Pathak is an Associate Professor at the School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana, India. She is also the Director of the Centre for Northeast Asian Studies at the School.

References

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Overview

In his monumental work, “An Essay on the Principle of Population”,^[i] Robert Malthus postulated that while population grows exponentially, food production grows linearly. So, a catastrophe will occur, either by famine, disease or war, to bring down the population. Although the population in the world and India has been growing spectacularly, no catastrophe of a great dimension has occurred to bring down population or its growth because food production has increased more phenomenally than population growth. This is due to increase in farmland, better irrigation, use of fertilisers and pesticides, crop rotation and improved storage of food grains; in other words, application of science and technology for agriculture.

In the 1960s, food scarcity in India was overcome only through massive food aid from the US, with the then US President, Lyndon Johnson authorising food shipments to India under PL-480.^[ii] The aid was however leveraged to secure support for US foreign policy goals, with India giving assurance that it would implement agricultural reforms and temper criticism of US policy regarding Vietnam.^[iii] Importing food grains was humiliating, and in 1965, Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri exhorted people to chant ‘Jai Jawan Jai Kisan’. The ‘Green Revolution’ was brought about by planting newly developed grains (wheat and rice) and using fertilisers. This raised the yield, though it did not improve food grain availability per person. However, the spectre of famine vanished, largely due to better distribution. Improvement in irrigation facilities and rapid economic growth also helped to drought proof the country.^[iv] Today, India feeds over 800 million “poor” people by giving them free/subsidised food items. The amount spent detracts from investments needed for overall development—economic and social.

An increase in food grain availability may stop starvation but not ill health, illiteracy, lack of proper housing and work and employment and improvement in standards of living and achievement and respect for the country in the comity of nations. Poverty reduction by controlling growth in population, as was done by China, is hence an imperative for national development. As humans are the only species in the planet who consistently degrade the environment, a reduction in population will concomitantly also lead to the preservation of the environment. India must, therefore, have a population policy which can ensure the achievement of development goals—economic, social and security. Family size must hence be regulated through positive and negative incentives and disincentives respectively and be made applicable uniformly across the board, to all sections of people, regardless of religion, region, caste and economic status. Uneven growth of population as between sections of people leads to social strife and demographic disequilibrium, which is best avoided.

Impact of India’s Population Growth

India’s population, which stood at 35.69 crore in 1951^[v] increased to 121.08 crore in 2011^[vi] and is estimated to be 139.9 crore in 2021.^[vii] An increase of four times since 1951, clearly puts unsustainable pressure on the land and water resources, which remain constant. To sustain the growing population, forest lands are being depleted, disturbing the eco-system leading to multiple negative consequences.

Soon after independence, the redoubtable industrialist and statesman, JRD Tata, raised the issue with Nehru, of the importance of population control. “But Jeh”, replied Nehru, “population is our strength!” Undeterred, JRD raised the subject again in 1951, but got little traction, and so Mr Tata, through the agency he founded, the Family Planning Association of India, pursued a campaign to promote family planning.^[viii] JRD’s advocacy of population control not only in and for India, but on a world-wide scale got for him the United Nation’s Population Award in October 1992.^[ix]

Dr. Ambedkar, too, understood the linkage between poverty and population. His views on birth control are reflected in the speech which Mr. P. J. Roham delivered, but which was written, as stated by Roham, by Dr Ambedkar. Here, Ambedkar called for limiting the family units, and urged the government to carry on an intensive propaganda in favour of birth-control among the masses.^[x] In the Manifesto of the Scheduled Caste Federation (SCF) for General Elections to Lok Sabha in 1952, he wrote about his party’s policy in regard to poverty and population. “The problem of poverty”, he wrote, “is a problem of controlling the excessive growth of population… for the purpose of reducing population it (SCF) would advocate an intensive propaganda in favour of birth control among the people. It will advocate the opening of birth control clinics in different parts of the country. It regards the growing rate in the increase of population in the country so grave and evil that it would not hesitate to advocate more drastic methods of controlling it”.

India has, unfortunately, paid little heed to the sage advice of both JRD Tata and Dr Ambedkar. But it is time to think seriously on this subject, both as a poverty alleviation measure and also as an instrument of protecting the environment. While the Chief Minister of Assam, Shri Himanta Biswa Sarma as well as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Shri Yogi Adityanath are now advocating population control measures, the initiative needs to be taken on a national level. Unfortunately, population control measures are denounced by some Muslim leaders and their allies, ostensibly on the grounds that it violates Muslim personal law.

China’s rise has been aided by its success in controlling its population. They had a one child policy from mid 1970s and two children per family from 2015 which has now been increased to three children per family. India faces multiple challenges in attempting the Chinese model, due to religious differences, caste fragmentation and differences in economic and educational levels. This gets exacerbated due to India being a multi-party, periodically election-conducting nation-state, wherein politicians exploit differences to garner the popular mandate. That notwithstanding, the need for a population policy is dire and can no longer be overlooked.

A National Population Policy for India

India is a welfare state where large doles are given for food, education and other social welfare schemes. As part of the policy, such assistance could be restricted to those having two children or less. Curbs could also be placed on those having more than two children in applying for government jobs or for selling public office.

Extensive educative campaigns must be undertaken to explain the consequences of run-away growth in population and that too unevenly among different sections before promulgation and periodic revisions in national population policies. The following needs to be highlighted:

• All people must always have despite droughts, famine and floods and epidemics, earthquakes, storms and cyclones and such natural disasters adequate fuel and food so that there are none or fewest deaths at all times.
• People must be well nourished, healthy, educated and able and willing to work to earn their livelihood and live in reasonable comfort.
• People must have adequate housing, either of their own or within affordable rent.
• Death at birth and infant mortality must be nil or nearly so and life expectancy should be rising.
• The use of natural resources below and above the ground—minerals, rivers, forests, air, fauna should not lead to unliveable conditions for humans, through reckless exploitation, which leads to environmental degradation. Most importantly, the civilisational and cultural heritage of Bharat, must be preserved.
• Different rates of growth of populations as between states, regions, castes and religions should not lead to dissonance within society.
• The population and its growth rate in the country should be related to the means of sustenance and economic well-being of the people.
• The environment must be preserved.

Demographic Shifts:

The current conflict in Lebanon between Christians and Muslims is a result of demographic changes that have taken place over the last few decades. In India, demographic changes could lead to communal strife on a very large scale, if not corrected even at this late stage. While India’s population since independence has increased four times, this increase is not spread evenly across religious groups. The Muslim population has grown six times during this period as against the population of other religious groups increasing only three times.

Muslim population growth relative to Hindus should be a matter of serious concern as it is driven both by political and theological considerations. This has already led to population inversion in some parts of India, especially in the states of Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Kerala, leading to fissures within society.

Changes in religious demographics over time in India

Unequal Rates of Growth Among States and Communities

Population increase in Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh is much slower that states in the North, such as Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. This could lead to a North-South divide, as seat allocation in Parliament is done on the basis of population.

Article 81 of the Constitution requires that each state receive seats in proportion to its population. The Seventh Amendment (1956) capped the maximum number of elected seats at 520. After adjustments under the Fourteenth Amendment (1962), the Thirty-First Amendment (1973), and the Goa, Daman and Diu Reorganisation Act (1987), the Lok Sabha now has a maximum sanctioned strength of 552 (530 from the states, 20 from the UTs, and two presidentially appointed members from the Anglo-Indian community) making a total of 545 representatives. The seats were to be revised every 10 years, but this revision was suspended by the Forty-Second Amendment enacted in 1976, until after the 2001 Census. In 2002, parliament, through the Eighty-Fourth Amendment, extended the suspension till the census to be held post 2026, which in effect means to 2031.^[xi]

The aspect of seat allocation based on population has grave implications. The states that have performed well in controlling the population stand to lose as against the states that have performed poorly. If such a policy is implemented, the loss of political power to states that have performed well, will likely create a cleavage between those that have fared better, leading to political turmoil and upheaval. It is thus important that all states take urgent steps, not just to stabilise population growth, but to reduce the same.

Comparison of Growth between some North and Southern States

Preserving Territorial, National and Cultural Integrity

India’s population policy should not only aim at controlling the growth of   population but also preserve the integrity, sovereignty and civilisational and cultural heritage of the country. History gives examples of destruction of a country’s cultural milieu by differential growth of the populations aimed at claiming political separation and superiority as seen in Lebanon. In Netherlands, the Catholics were in a minority. They wanted to become the majority, so they nurtured large families and over time, the protestants were reduced to a minority. The same phenomena appear to be happening in parts of India: Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and certain other parts of India. In these states as well as in others, Muslims have been able to prevail upon the ruling parties through group voting strength, to carve out Muslim majority districts: Malappuram in Kerala, Mewat in Gurugram and Malerkotla in Punjab are examples. The motive is political power. Writing in the Jamaat-e-Islami weekly, “Radiance,” Dr Omar Khalidi, stated: “we need Muslim districts for three reasons. First, concentrated areas provide security; second, to provide an environment that is conducive to our cultural independence; third, to provide a political base through which our people can be elected…at preset, our numbers don’t add up to elect adequate legislators. Hyderabad and Rangareddy in Andhra Pradesh and Gulbarga (Karnataka) and certain Thalukas could be merged to create Deccan province (with Muslim majority).^[xii]

Different Treatment to different Religions

India’s populations are dealt with differently in some respects, based on among others, religion, language and caste considerations. Article 30 of the Indian Constitution grants to religious and linguistic minorities, certain rights and privileges with respect to establishing and managing any type and number of educational institutions, a right and privilege not available to the Hindu majority. What percent of the total population qualifies to be reckoned as minority is also not specified in the Constitution nor by the Supreme Court. While Hindus on an all-India basis are the majority, they are a minority in several states (J&K, Punjab, Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya and very soon in Kerala and Arunachal Pradesh). Minority Commissions are established only in Hindu majority states; not in Hindu minority states. Muslim personal law permits a man to have four wives and inheritance is also dictated by their personal law. There is a need to look into such issues, and for the nation to be governed by a uniform civil code, so that all people can be treated alike. The minority status is discriminatory as it affects the economic and welfare prospects of people. Governments in States and in the Centre have Minority Welfare Departments and Minority Finance Corporations, funding not only education, welfare and commercial ventures of minorities but also their places of worship. This militates against the very concept of secularism, as enshrined in the Constitution.

Conclusion

Population growth is impacting negatively on India’s cities, all of which have grown far beyond the capacity of the civic agencies to provide adequate amenities. Growth of population has also impacted negatively in the rural areas, where land holdings are diminishing and are becoming smaller. Population growth is also impacting on job availability, which is getting more severe due to mechanisation, automation and robotisation. Population reduction is therefore a necessity, which needs to be pursued with full zeal, through a dynamic national population policy.

Inter alia, such a policy must focus on:

• Extensive and intensive education and information about the perils of large families and large populations which negate poverty alleviation efforts, increase unemployment, lead to under-nourishment among women and children, and create conflict in the scramble for limited resource availability.
• Humans are the only polluters in the planet. Reducing the population will ipso facto, lead to reduction in pollution level, reduction of the carbon footprint, and help in preservation of the environment.
• Limiting family size must now be a national imperative. Appropriate legislation to that effect must be made, to include legislating incentives and disincentives to promote small family norms.
• Legislate Uniform Civil Code as mandated by the Directive Principles of the Constitution and criminalise polygamy.
• Preserve the millennial Indian culture and civilisation values of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, Loka Sangraha and Dharma.

Author Brief Bio: Dr T.H Chowdary is Chairman, Pragna Bharati, Founder: Center for Telecom Management & Studies, Fellow: Tata Consultancy Services and Convenor, Bharatiya Dharma Rakshana Samakhya. A former: IT Advisor, GOAP and Founder CMD, VSNL, he is also a Padma Shri awardee.

^[i] http://www.esp.org/books/malthus/population/malthus.pdf

^[ii] Public Law 480 (PL-480) is “Agricultural Trade Development Assistance Act”, signed on Law on July 10, 1954 by President Dwight D Eisenhower. Also known as “Food for Peace,” it is a funding avenue by which US food can be used for Overseas Aid.

^[iii] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/pl-480

^[iv] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/drought-not-a-big-calamity-in-india-anymore/

^[v] https://censusindia.gov.in/DigitalLibrary/data/Census_1951/Publication/India/23685-1951-REP.pdf

^[vi] https://www.census2011.co.in

^[vii] https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/india-population

^[viii] https://www.tata.com/newsroom/heritage/jrd-tata-for-india-initiatives

^[ix] Ibid.

^[x] Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Writings and Speeches, Vol.2, First Edition, Compiled and Edited by Vasant Moon, pp 263, available at https://www.mea.gov.in/Images/attach/amb/Volume_02.pdf

^[xi] https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/03/14/india-s-emerging-crisis-of-representation-pub-78588

^[xii] https://www.milligazette.com/Archives/2005/16-31Mar05-Print-Edition/163103200506.htm

“There are few things certain in life – one is death, second is change and the other is waste. No one can stop these things in our lives.” – unknown

Introduction

Why are our cities so ugly? The answer has much to do with the way we live. Let us look at some statistics:

• According to Time magazine, humans produce 290 billion kg of faeces and 1.98 billion litres of urine per year.¹
• An average person excretes or generates about 0.74 kilograms of solid waste per day, worldwide.²
• Every year an estimated 16 billion injections are administered worldwide, more than half of these needles and syringes are dangerously thrown away or disposed of thereafter.³
• Liquid waste – dirty water, wash water, organic liquids, detergents and rainwater is usually found in households, businesses, and industries.
• Approximately 1,400 sq. km landfill area would be required for dumping municipal solid waste in India by 2047—almost equal to the combined area of Hyderabad, Mumbai and Chennai—3 of the 5 most populous cities of India.⁴

Any unwanted solid, liquid or gaseous substance discarded or thrown out by households, or commercial establishments can be considered as waste. According to the Press Information Bureau, waste can be segmented into three categories:

• Biodegradable or organic waste (food and kitchen waste, green waste vegetables, flower, leaves, fruits and paper, etc.).
• Inert and non-biodegradable waste (construction and demolition waste, dirt, debris, etc.).
• Recyclable waste (plastic, paper, bottles, glasses, etc.).

Waste management is a universal issue that affects every single individual or government providing civic amenities to its people. Almost 50 per cent of India’s population is projected to live in urban areas by 2050 leading to a five per cent growth in the volume of waste generated per year.⁵ As towns and cities develop economically, and the population grows, waste generated is expected to increase drastically from 2.01 billion tons today to 3.40 billion tons in 2050.

As of date over 377 million people—31 per cent of the Indian population—live in 7,935 towns and cities and generate around a massive amount of 277.1 million tons of solid waste per annum. According to a 2019 India Today report, the country produces more than 1.50 lakh metric tons of solid waste daily. This is increasing every day with the burgeoning economy, urbanisation and population.⁶ India today produces more than 80 per cent of waste generated in South Asia and 13 per cent of the world per annum.⁷ According to a World Bank study, India is one of the world’s highest waste-generating nations.⁸ As a result most Indian towns and cities are ugly to look at and littered with garbage.

Waste Management

Human activities are the cause behind most kinds of waste, and the way it is stored, collected and disposed of poses a risk to the environment and public health. According to Planning Commission, Maharashtra generates the highest (22,080 MT per day) and Sikkim generates the lowest (89 MT per day) amount of waste. Among the Union Territories (UTs) Delhi produces the highest amount of waste, while Daman & Diu are the lowest waste generators.⁹

According to the World Bank’s What a Waste 2.0 report, the world generates 2.01 billion tons of municipal waste annually at least 33% of which is not managed in an environmentally safe manner.¹⁰ Improper handling and disposal of waste harms the environment and public health. It is a leading cause of soil, water and air pollution. Unsafe disposal of hazardous waste contaminates the soil and water causing serious health problems and leading to air pollution in the surrounding area.

Uncontrolled or mismanaged waste lying around attracts flies, rats, and other creatures which spread infectious diseases. The polluted environment and ineffective waste management serves as a breeding ground for disease vectors and leads to several respiratory problems and diseases like Japanese Encephalitis, jaundice, cholera, colitis, diarrhoea, worm, dysentery, and skin diseases. The US Public Health Service has identified 22 diseases including asthma, heart attack, and emphysema due to burning garbage and faecal matter in municipal waste. Unmanaged and decomposed garbage attracts rodents, which lead to diseases like dengue and malaria.

Environmental contamination is a global issue. Poorly managed waste is contaminating the world’s oceans, clogging drains and harming humans, plants and animals. All over the world, about one million plastic bottles are purchased every minute and some 5 trillion single-use plastic bags are used once and thrown away every year. Ten of the world’s biggest rivers flush around eight million tons—more than 90 per cent of the plastic waste into the oceans every year.¹¹

The real magnitude of the problem is for everyone to see. This phenomenal amount of plastic waste is enough to fill up 2,400 Olympic stadiums or 4.8 million olympic-sized swimming pools. It weighs equal to 3.4 million adult blue whales or 1,376 Empire State Buildings. Imagine that’s just 12 per cent of the total waste generated each year.¹² Already, according to the ‘World Air Quality Report, 2020’, prepared by Swiss organisation IQAir, Delhi is the world’s 10th most polluted city and most polluted capital city globally.¹³ Ghaziabad in Uttar Pradesh is the second most polluted city in the world after Hotan in China.¹⁴

Twenty-two of the world’s 30 most polluted cities are in India. India, Pakistan and China collectively account for 94 out of the top 100 most polluted cities in the world. The largest number of cities in the list of top 10 most polluted cities in the world is in India.¹⁵ India ranks highest with 46 of the world’s 100 most polluted cities followed by China (42), Pakistan (6), and Bangladesh (4) in terms of air quality index. These include Noida, Greater Noida, Lucknow, Kanpur, Meerut, Agra, Bulandshahr, Bisrakh, and Muzaffarnagar (in Uttar Pradesh), Faridabad, Jind, Fatehabad, Bandhwari, Gurugram, Yamuna Nagar, Rohtak, Dharuhera and Hisar (Haryana), and Bhiwadi (Rajasthan).¹⁶

According to the Delhi Pollution Control Committee, people in Delhi breathe the worst air between November 1 and November 15 every year followed by Noida (488), Ghaziabad (486), Greater Noida (478), Faridabad (460), and Gurugram (448). ¹⁷ As per a scientific paper on the health and economic impact of air pollution, 1.7 million deaths—i.e. 18 per cent of the total deaths in the country in India in 2019 were attributable to air pollution.¹⁸

Managing waste properly is essential for building sustainable and liveable cities, but it remains a challenge for many developing countries and cities. Effective waste management is expensive, often comprising 20%–50% of municipal budgets. Operating this essential municipal service requires integrated systems that are efficient, sustainable, and socially supported.

Is Garbage-Free India a Distant Dream?

Solid waste management is one of the necessities to keep the town and cities clean. Solid waste management is a serious problem in India not just because of environmental concerns but also because of the enormous quantities generated every day. Experts believe that India is following a flawed system of waste disposal and management. Almost all municipal authorities indiscriminately dump solid waste in dump yards within or outside the city. Waste dumping and open burning continue to be the principal methods of waste disposal in India. These dump yards are known to frequently catch fire. An 18-ft high inferno at Deonar¹⁹ in Mumbai in 2016 went on for three months, pumping tons of cancer-causing smoke caused by burning plastic and leather. Burning garbage is the third biggest cause of greenhouse gas emissions in India.

Heavy metals and toxic liquid in the rotten garbage is absorbed into the soil or water bodies. This leads to contamination of the entire food chain and rivers, endangering humans, plants and animals. According to data from the Ministry of Environment and Forests, only about 75–80% of the municipal waste is collected scientifically and only 22–28% of this waste (27,000 MT per day) is processed and treated. The remaining 80 per cent (1,08,000 MT per day) is dumped in an unhygienic manner in landfill sites leading to health and environmental degradation.²⁰ The stench and ugly sight of garbage dumped on the roadside, clogging of the drains and garbage floating on the surface of the rivers, particularly during the rainy season, is a common sight in India.

It is estimated that urban municipal solid waste will increase to 387.8 million tons in 2030 and 543.3 million tons by 2050.²¹ At the rate at which we are littering hazardous waste we would need about 88 sq. km of land—the size of New Delhi—just to dump it by 2050, according to an Assocham and PwC joint report.²² “This will eventually render the land unfit for any other use for as long as a half-century before it can be stabilised for other uses,” says the report, ‘Waste Management in India: Shifting Gears.’

The solution lies in a garbage-free India as a part of the ‘Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’.

Objectives of Waste Management

The main objective of waste management is to reduce the harmful effects of the discarded pile of waste on health and the environment and improve the quality of life of people living or working in the vicinity. The philosophy behind waste management is governed by 3R’s namely, Reduce, Reuse and Recycle. In other words, only a minimal amount of waste should be generated, and a substantial amount of this waste should either be reused or recycled. To do so, it is particularly important to:

• prevent the generation of waste.
• promote reuse of waste.
• promote biological recovery of waste and recycling of materials.
• promote energy use of waste not suited for recycling.
• ensure that the treatment and disposal of waste does not cause any harmful impacts.

According to a recent report by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM)-NEC, India is among the top five countries in the world, in terms of e-waste generation next only to China, the USA, Japan and Germany.²³ The study concludes that, though India generates 2 million tons of e-waste—discarded electronic devices and gadgets like computer monitors, mobile phones, chargers, compact discs, headphones, televisions, air conditioners, and refrigerators, only 4.3 lakh tons is recycled per annum.

The e-waste products contain toxic substances like lead, cadmium, mercury, hexavalent chromium, plastic, PVC (polyvinyl chloride), BFRs (brominated flame retardants), barium, beryllium, and carcinogens such as carbon black and heavy metals which can cause severe health problems to those handling the waste. Mismanagement of e-waste and prolonged exposure to pollutants released by e-waste adversely affects the crops, and drinking water, consumed by both humans and animals. They can also lead to kidney damage, respiratory diseases, skin disorders, and lung cancer.

The Stumbling Blocks – Drawbacks of the Present System

India is predicted to reach an estimated 125 million tons of waste, making it the largest waste contributor in the world by 2048. The current waste management practice in India involves collecting waste from sources through a community collective bin system, which gets transported to a low-lying landfill system with intermediate processing of Municipal Solid Waste. The open dumping practice leads to problems like pollution and health hazards.

The major problems affecting solid waste management are unscientific treatment, improper collection of waste, and ethical problems. This in turn leads to hazards like environmental degradation, water pollution, soil pollution, and air pollution. Some of the other bottleneck areas include:

• No storage of waste at source
• No system of primary collection from doorsteps
• Irregular street sweeping
• Waste storage depots are a problem
• Transportation of waste is not satisfactory
• Processing of waste: only a few cities have been practicing this
• Disposal of waste is a neglected area and the current practices are grossly unscientific

Waste to Wealth

Waste is a valuable resource with the potential to generate innumerable environmental and monetary benefits if properly treated. For instance, did you know that recycling 5 PET bottle produces enough fibre for making one t-shirt? The Waste Management market in India is said to be a USD 14 billion opportunity by 2025.²⁴ India has the potential to generate 3GW of electricity from waste by 2050. Some of the sunshine areas of waste management include municipal solid waste, electronic waste, bio-medical waste, and agricultural waste. This is both a challenge as well as a golden opportunity. India is set to become the world’s most populous country as per projections of the United Nations with 7 new megacities by 2027. At this growth rate, India would need landfills almost 90 per cent of the size of Bengaluru for dumping the waste if left untreated.

Case Studies: Best Practices of Solid Waste Management around the World

Waste is generally viewed as dirty with no value; this limited thinking is why waste management is not given the weightage it deserves. Every city is different when it comes to solid waste generation and management. Here are some of the fascinating, innovative and eco-friendly waste management strategies being implemented all over the globe.

Kamikatsu, Japan:

There is a Japanese word ‘mottainai’ which in other words means “don’t waste anything worthy”. The spirit behind it is to use all things as long as possible. It represents the island nation’s commitment towards waste management and ‘zero-waste’. Kamikatsu, a small town approximately 40 kilometres from Tokushima city in the mountains of Shikoku Island in Japan, signed a ‘zero-waste’ declaration in 2003. Today, Kamikatsu is a ‘zero waste’ town without even a trash collection system. The residents themselves segregate the waste into 45 categories. 80 per cent of this waste is recycled and only 20 per cent goes to landfills. The residents voluntarily wash, sort, and carry their trash to the recycling centre and make sure that it lands up in the right bin. Kamikatsu’s heroic efforts have inspired other communities in Japan to take up the zero-waste challenge.

Mexico City, Mexico

Bordo Poniente dump, just outside Mexico City used to be one of the world’s biggest open-air landfills. Hundreds of trucks were used to dump more than 12,000 tons of waste each day. In 2011, Mexico City authorities decided to close down the 927-acre Bordo Poniente landfill. The idea behind this was to convert millions of tons of garbage to energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2 million tons annually. BMLMX, a power company, signed a contract with the Mexican government to utilise the biogas from the landfill site to generate 250 GWh electricity—enough to illuminate about 35,000 homes and the streets of Mexico for 25 years. This is, apart from the creation of short and long-term jobs for contractors, service providers and labour in the construction, operation and maintenance of the landfill gas capture system. As yet another spin-off, a cement company agreed to buy 3,000 tons of dry waste daily to burn as fuel as well as produce organic fertiliser for the city’s parks and gardens in the composting plant.

Malang City, Indonesia

With a garbage output of 200,000 tons a day, Indonesia ranks as the second-highest generator of plastic waste worldwide. Almost half of the population of Indonesia earns less than USD 2 a day and a majority of them do not have any health insurance. Though both the issues—waste management and healthcare may seem unconnected, Dr Gamala Albinsaid, the CEO of Indonesia Medika, a healthcare company, saw this as an opportunity and created Garbage Clinical Insurance (GCI), a micro health insurance program that lets people trade garbage for medical services and medicines. There was a time when people used to think that garbage is worthless and healthcare is expensive, but now they feel that garbage can be valuable and after all healthcare isn’t necessarily so expensive.

Sweden

Over the last few decades, Sweden has emerged as one of the global leaders in waste management. Strange though it may sound, it is a fact that Sweden has run out of trash and is now asking other countries for their garbage to keep its recycling plants running. Less than one per cent of Sweden’s household waste goes into the landfill dump. Over 50 per cent of the waste generated in Sweden is burned in waste-to-energy facilities. The 32 waste management plants in Sweden produce heat for 810,000 Swedish households and electricity for about 250,000 private homes in the freezing Swedish winter. The country has adopted a recycling policy that funnels all the energy generated by burning waste into the national heating network.

Semakau Landfill, Singapore

The word ‘landfill’ immediately creates the image of a smelly mountain of rubbish. But Semakau Island, created by reclaiming land between two small islands, eight kilometres off the coast of Singapore, is different. The world’s first offshore landfill site (island) was created entirely from the sea space at USD 399 with a capacity of 63 million cubic meters. Semakau landfill receives about 1,400 tons of incineration ash and 600 tons of non-incinerable waste every day and is expected to meet Singapore’s need for landfill space beyond the year 2040. The landfill operation will eventually create an island made almost entirely of waste. Semakau landfill has been constructed to contain all wastes within the landfill area and keep the surrounding marine ecosystem and sea waters pollution-free. Great care has also been taken to keep the landfill clean, and odour free. Semakau landfill was opened to members of the public for recreational activities. Since then, the island has gained popularity with nature lovers due to its rich biodiversity.

Conclusion

The world is not our personal ashtray. When we throw anything, it must go where it is meant to be. As has rightly been stated, if we don’t want to live in a trash can, we should stop making it one.

Waste management is not a complex, unsolved puzzle. Many solutions already exist. What is needed is urgent action at all levels of society. We ourselves are the cause and cure behind the dumps of garbage. It is time now, to get our act together and as a society, keep our environment clean and green.

Author Brief Bio: Mr Neeraj Mahajan isa media professional with over 30 years of experience in print, electronic, web and mobile media. He is the Editor of Taazakhabar News and World News Report

References:

1. https://time.com/4098127/human-waste-energy-recycling/
2. https://datatopics.worldbank.org/what-a-waste/trends_in_solid_waste_management.html#:~:text=Worldwide,%20waste%20generated%20per%20person,tonnes,%20of%20the%20world’s%20waste.
3. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/health-care-waste#:~:text=Every%20year%20an%20estimated%2016,,%20furans,%20and%20particulate%20matter.
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18. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/pollution-killed-nearly-17-million-people-in-india-in-2019-study#:~:text=Pollution%20accounted%20for%20nearly%201.7,the%20country’s%20toxic%20urban%20air.
19. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/87429/fire-burns-in-mumbai-landfill
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22. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-needs-new-delhi-size-landfills-for-waste-by-2050-report/article19144908.ece
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24. https://www.psa.gov.in/mission/waste-wealth/38

Gaurie Dwivedi

Thank you, Mr. Yadav for speaking to India Foundation. The talking point across the world is about the COP 26 milestones, the decisions that have been taken, and more importantly, the parallel narrative that is being built about how India pulled down a collective effort. How do you first view the larger effort that is currently on and then we can get onto the nitty-gritty of India’s position?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

A major milestone for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations was the Paris Agreement in 2015. In principle, it was accepted by almost all the nations across the globe. There were two basic spirits of the Paris Agreement. First is Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) and the second is climate finance. Due to the increasing global warming, every nation was concerned and had concurring opinion that solutions needed to be implemented for its mitigation and adaptation. For the question about ‘how’ to implement these solutions, the answer was ‘Common but Differentiated Responsibility”. We all have the same target, that the world should be saved from climate change, but every nation would have to take decisions based on their national circumstances. That is why even the targets set in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) were based on individual national circumstances of different countries. Second, the major countries, the ones who captured maximum carbon space during the industrial development, committed that they would give compensation and climate finance for these contributions. This is why, when this discussion came up in Glasgow, it was asserted that as per ‘CBDR,’ each country has the right to take decisions about energy production. A fundamental of ‘Climate Justice’ is also poverty eradication. In fact, India is one of those countries who impose maximum tax on fossil fuels. Our petrol and diesel tax is among the highest. On the other hand, we provide ‘Ujjwala’ subsidies to 12 crore women. This way, the smoke that would be created in their rooms due to biofuel combustion is decreased. This has brought change in the lives of 12 crore women. For this reason, our point was, and not just us but all the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India and China)—and even other developing countries had this common point—that the principle of CBDR be accepted. Common but differentiated responsibility according to national circumstances and subsidy will be continued, subject to the poverty eradication and vulnerability of the local society. We only presented this principle, the voice of the developing countries in front of the world.

Gaurie Dwivedi

When I said that a narrative is being built, it has to be seen that India’s per capita emission is just one-seventh or one-eighth of the US and is also even lower than China’s. Considering how big a polluter China is, they must take bigger steps. But, when the negotiation was on in COP 26, India was connected to these countries, considered alongside China, which somehow undermines our efforts. How do you view the situation?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

India is among those countries who achieved the NDCs they declared in Paris. And not just achieved, we also fixed ambitious targets. In our renewable energy production, we reached 165 GW. We now took a target of 500 GW. Even before that we targeted 450 GW. We said that we will take our renewable capacity to 40%, and we achieved that goal and now we are moving to 50%. We said that we will reduce carbon emissions and we did reduce them. The biggest point is that under our Honourable PM, Shri Narendra Modi Ji’s Panchamrit, India presented a new action-oriented example to the world. We will cut our carbon emissions due to development by 1 billion tonnes by 2030. It is a cumulative effect and is being done very scientifically. We believe in action along with vision. After 2015 Paris Agreement, India joined three major action programmes with regard to climate change. First, we started International Solar Alliance with France. Today, 102 nations of the world are members of the Solar Alliance. This significant achievement happened in Glasgow, and is not limited to International Solar Alliance alone. We are now moving towards ‘One Sun, One Grid, One World’. Countries like France, UK, Australia, US and others have come forward for this. Second, we are working on how to promote green technology in sectors which are major carbon emitters like cement, aluminium and others. Corporates and various countries are coming together to deliberate on this issue, on the platform of Lead IT that we have created along with Sweden for this purpose. Third, India has also been doing great work on the Disaster Resilient Infrastructure platform that we have with UK. This time our honourable PM came together with the PM of Australia and the PM of UK to create the IRIS platform to help small island nations with their vulnerabilities. This once again shows both our vision and action. 

Gaurie Dwivedi

According to you, what are the major steps that India needs to take in the next five to eight years and what are the steps for which the world needs to put in collaborative effort?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

One crucial issue is the target of Panchamrit that our honourable PM Modi ji has shown. Second is technological development. How do we move towards green energy? We are working on increasing our solar energy generation capacity and alongside have also initiated a National Hydrogen Mission. We also have to look into changing and adapting our lifestyle practices. Simultaneously, we also have to increase the global carbon sink. I believe that the developed countries, who not only have a moral responsibility but also a pledge, should come forward for technology transfer and climate finance. They must accept their large amounts of carbon emissions and historical wrongdoings that they have committed. In this matter, India fervently leads all the developing countries.

Gaurie Dwivedi

If developed countries need to move ahead in this direction, there needs to be a realisation that 2009 level of fundings cannot be expected in 2021 or 2030. In this regard, how are the developed countries being pushed to fulfil their responsibilities in terms of funding?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

India has been exerting a great deal of pressure on this issue. You earlier talked about making collective efforts. Our honourable PM gave the mantra of ‘environment-friendly lifestyle’. If this time, there were six or seven decisions taken in this direction, it was because of India’s strong representation of the voices of developing countries. Firstly, in Glasgow, all developed countries expressed deep regret that they couldn’t provide climate finance. Now they would have to do more for this responsibility. Besides expressing deep regrets, they also need to take action. Second, an ad-hoc committee was discussed for deliberating the definition of climate finance. Discussion also took place over continuation of long-term finance. A draft would also be prepared about adaptation, between the time-frames from Glasgow to Sharm el-Sheikh. Most importantly, we have always held that if they do not carry forward the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) and the CERs (Certified Emission Reductions) from the Kyoto protocol, then there would be no credibility to the issue of carbon credits that they wish to raise. We believe that this issue raised by India and other developing countries has been fully accepted as part of Article 6 of the rule book of Paris Agreement. We still hold that developed countries should come forward to fulfil their responsibilities.

Gaurie Dwivedi

Recently, Germany announced a funding commitment of 1.2 billion Euros for India to fight climate change. Do you believe that issue of environment leadership that India has been raising would give an impetus to increase funding and solve this problem of funding?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

With regard to funding, I believe that there needs to be more clarity on climate finance. This must happen with pace. As far as India’s initiatives are concerned, India has not only set ambitious targets, but has also fulfilled them. One of the major threats of climate change is desertification of land; to address that we are running a joint-programme of eight ministries. We are undertaking major projects such as NCAP to solve the problem of air pollution. Over ten of our ministries are working on various initiatives with regard to environment including Swachh Bharat mission, Ujjwala Yojana, Unnati project etc, as well as work in the agriculture sector. All those techniques, adaptation practices and mitigation measures that are needed to be taken by modern societies are being implemented by India.

Gaurie Dwivedi

Do we need to change our perspective about environment? We need to be careful, conscious and aware that when we talk about environment or climate, it is one of the foremost threats to the world at large. Do you think that this larger transformation has not happened by now? It is an ongoing process and would not happen in a day but do you think that there should be more work in this direction by the civil society, academia, research and other?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

This is a fact that environment awareness needs to come and environment education has to be pushed. Climate Justice also needs to be brought to the fore. The issue of lifestyle should also be raised. We have 17% population of the world but account for just 4% of total carbon emissions. Hence, our per capita emissions are very low. There is also an issue of lifestyle, which must be discussed. Our honourable PM has also focused on this issue. Besides lifestyle changes, we also need to put impetus on our biodiversity, flora, fauna and our other issues. The world needs to rapidly progress in adoption of green technology, which is environment-friendly, through technology transfer. Meanwhile, nations must also fulfil their responsibilities towards their citizens. This is such a balancing act in which all nations need to work together, because the impact of climate change transcends geographical boundaries and has a cumulative global effect. That is why every country must contribute, based on their national circumstances. India strongly believes in these thoughts and regularly asserts them. Climate Justice is an important part of Climate Change. Eradication of poverty is a crucial part of Climate Justice. That is why every country must take this into account while going forward.

Gaurie Dwivedi

There is a great deal of concern that technology transfer is not taking place. What do you think should be the roadmap ahead? Should it include public-private partnerships, or B2B or remain only in government-government (G2G) sector?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

This should be open and include all forms and modes. The way we are digitally empowered across the world, knowledge-sharing, transfer and knowledge base are fundamental but what is important is that we become more open, responsible and poor-friendly towards knowledge sharing.

Gaurie Dwivedi

Would the government focus more on the idea of green-hubs or do you believe that this can be just one aspect of the solution while a holistic solution needs to be 360 degrees?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

We need a 360-degree solution. Green sink must rise but along with that we also need to look at desertification of land, problems in coastal areas, adoption of new agricultural practices, threats from rising emissions from new cities and other critical aspects. Our earth is under a layer of gases and rising emissions of CO2 and other gases is having a significant impact on the same. Even in this regard, nations need to take action considering their national circumstances. Just few months back, India’s Cabinet also approved the Kigali amendment which talks about phasing down of these hydrofluorocarbons. Such decisions are being taken across the globe, but what is necessary is that it involves capacity building of all countries. This is why, when the issue of loss and damages, time-framework and measurement methods was raised in Glasgow, India put forward the point that developing countries should be equipped with both capacity and finance and this was agreed to. I believe that if our framework to gauge global warming is strengthened, the world would be better able to face the upcoming threats in a collective manner.

Gaurie Dwivedi

When we talk about India in the context of climate and environment, a major issue that comes up is of air pollution. Now it has passed the phase of challenge and evolved to become an emergency. What kind of measures do you think need to be taken? How much do you envisage the role of states and the federal structure? Is there going to be a holistic solution to it or will people continue to suffer?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

Indeed, there are solutions. You have asked an important question. I wish to point out that air pollution and climate change are two different aspects. But since you have asked this question in the context of India, I will answer. The 15^th Finance Commission has announced a Rs 4,400 crore package that we have also started distributing to states. Our honourable PM has also started National Clean Air Mission Programme and we have started regional meetings for it as well. Recently, we had the first meeting in Mumbai and we are going to conduct more meetings across the country. We have selected 138 cities which are reeling with air pollution. We have signed MOUs with their municipalities and released certain guidelines for them which covers issues including garbage combustion, vehicular pollution, dust pollution, thermal power plant mitigations, industrial pollutions. We have chalked out plans for these issues and even worked out a method for measurement.

Second, under environment ministry we have also released the ‘Prana portal’ for public awareness on the issue. Indian government has also brought a Special Act for Delhi-NCR region. For the first time, we have given legal recognition to air sheds. To manage Delhi’s pollution, we moved from BS-IV to BS-VI petrol and nationally, we have introduced a scrapping policy. In Delhi, we have diverted traffic to eastern peripheral expressway and western expressway and brought policy to measure dust pollution. We are shifting the entire industry to PNG to reduce industrial pollution. In a few days, our National Air Quality Control Authority, which has technicians and experts, is going to bring forth a mega programme to solve the pollution of Delhi-NCR region. We have also introduced few new ways to deal with stubble burning to reduce its pollution. First, we have distributed machines to end the stubble. Nearly Rs 700 crore have been expended by the Central Government for the same. Second, the government worked, both independently as well as in collaboration with various groups, on decomposition of the stubble to convert it to manure. This was done on nearly 1 lakh acre land in both Punjab and Haryana and about 6 lakh acre land in Uttar Pradesh. Thirdly, we also worked on utilising it as biofuel. Nearly 1,500 tons was acquired by NTPC, which was a pretty big tender. To utilise it as animal fodder in future, a small pilot project was run to dispatch it to Kutch and Western Rajasthan, where there are cattle in large numbers but lack of fodder. Even though it was at a small scale, the pilot project did take place. In COP 26, one Indian youth got award for Takachar, a firm that works on converting stubble to product while in the cutting phase itself, and then directly sending it for biofuel. In future, there would be more such experiments. Comprehensively, we nudged and appealed to the farmers to not simply burn the stubble but to rather utilise it to increase their production and incomes or use it as manure. In light of the four-five new initiatives, I believe we would be better able to handle the problem in future.

Gaurie Dwivedi

My last question: As 2021 draws to a close, what would be the two-three defining initiatives by your ministry in the post-COP26 world, in 2022, in light of all the developments of this year?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

Our Ministry has brought forth changes in two Acts which have been forwarded to various committees of the Parliament. First, we are providing approval to the CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) Treaty in the Wildlife Act, to uphold the international standards of wildlife protection in our country. Second, biodiversity is one such field that can help our farmers and tribals to prosper through the rich flora of our country. We are working on increasing their productivity through innovation and academic research of international standard. Third, there are a lot of lakes in our country. We are targeting to get Ramsar Convention status to 75 lakes. As of now, we have been successful in getting 47 lakes registered. Ten of our beaches have got blue tag and we plan on working more for their conservation. Similarly, we are looking into the issue of Western Ghats. We also aim to push forward our National Clean Air Programme with more sincerity. We have great institutions in our country like Biological Survey of India and Zoological Survey of India, which efficiently raise the issues of flora and fauna, and we plan on strengthening such institutions. 14 of our tiger reserves have got accreditation so we aim to work with more rigour in this direction. To make our environment clearances more nature friendly and development based, we are also working to improve our Parivesh portal. I believe that with these targets we would be able to protect our biodiversity, lead to more afforestation, and push forward an environment-friendly development in the country.

Brief Bio:

*Shri Bhupender Yadav is Union Minister for Environment, Forest and Climate Change and Labour and Employment, Government of India.

*Ms Gaurie Dwivedi is a Journalist and Author.

On Dec 07, 2021, the late Gen Bipin Rawat, CDS, highlighted the importance of simplifying defence cooperation within a region. He was addressing delegates from BIMSTEC Nations at a Curtain Raiser event held at Delhi, for PANEX-21- an HADR (Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief) exercise envisioning greater regional cooperation.^[i]

PANEX-21 is the third in the series of BIMSTEC HADR exercises, and is ground-breaking in two ways. Firstly, the theme of the exercise is ‘Response to Natural Disasters in the backdrop of a Pandemic’, exploring the new challenge where existing rescue and relief SOPs must be modified in line with pandemic management protocols. Secondly, the militaries of the member nations are participating for the first time, indicating that the role of the Armed Forces is expanding into Operations Other Than War (OOTW) to include HADR. The motto for the exercise, quite aptly, is “Together, We Win”.

Why Do We Need Regional HADR Cooperation?

In the past, western developed nations were the leading providers of humanitarian assistance, leveraging their economic and military prowess to project “soft power” across the globe. However, the changing world order, the increased interdependence on multilateral issues within a region and the economic rise of nations (especially in South and South East Asia) has seen a reversal of western ‘expeditionary’ HADR operations, with regional groupings providing similar assistance.

For example, to enhance ASEAN’s collective response to disasters, member states developed the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) and established the AHA centre for coordinating disaster management issues. Catalysed by experiences gained and lessons learnt during the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan experience, the “One ASEAN-One Response” Declaration was inked in September 2016 to “increase the speed, the scale and the solidarity of ASEAN’s response”. Mr. Said Faisal, former Executive Director of the AHA Centre, has said “Speed is about how fast we can move. Scale is about how big the resources that we can mobilise. Solidarity is about doing this together. It is about a united response in the region”.^[ii]

Many experts believe there is a clear case for regional cooperation for Disaster Management because the primary impacts of large-scale disasters are often felt across national borders. Second and third order impacts on economy, healthcare and rebuilding are definitely of regional concern. Speaking at a seminar during PANEX-21, Mr. Md. Mosharaf Hossain, Director, Connectivity and Security Division, BIMSTEC Secretariat, said that there was a need to explore the feasibility of a “One Region-One Response” policy.^[iii]

The diversity of capabilities, expertise and structures in different nations in a region can be leveraged as an opportunity for promoting regional cooperation on disaster response by sharing of information, experiences and best practices. From Disaster Risk Reduction technologies to pooling of resources by trusted partners within a region, a joint approach can make better facilities available as well as speed up response times—all leading to saving valuable lives and limiting disaster damage.  Finally, regional cooperation in “Building Back Better” would catalyse a rebound for the regional economy.

Why include the Military?

Militaries have expertise in surveillance & reconnaissance, evacuation, restoration of communications, debris clearance & quick construction, medical and surgical assistance in field conditions, setting up of relief infrastructure, green field supply chain establishment and so on. The UN urges that militaries should be used during humanitarian situations only as a “last resort” for international responses, but their deployment to manage disasters is quite common in the Indo-Pacific region.

The military’s capabilities to mobilise in the disaster aftermath, provide logistics support and human resources, their disciplined approach and set command and control structures, have always been useful in disaster situations. With limited resources during disasters, almost every developing nation leverages its Armed Forces for HADR.

The militaries, in turn, have acquitted themselves exceedingly well in all spheres in HADR operations, and earned the goodwill of the citizens of their own countries. Trans-border deployments have also taken place under bilateral arrangements, including after the 2004 tsunami, the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, cyclones Nargis (2008) and Mora (2017) and the Rohingya refugee crisis (2018).

Among the quickest to respond to the devastating earthquake in Nepal in 2015, India garnered worldwide praise for ‘Operation Maitri’ by deploying specialised medical and relief teams from the Army and Air Force. In 2020, Indian Naval Ship Kesari was dispatched with military medical teams, essential medicines and food items to the Maldives, Mauritius, Madagascar, Comoros and Seychelles following separate requests from these countries during the pandemic. Hence, there is a strong case for inclusion of military components when creating a regional apparatus for HADR cooperation.  Apart from the humanitarian angle, there are spin-off advantages for the militaries, as well: –

• Military Diplomacy. This is a good outreach to extend support and increase the area of influence. It is also a form of military cooperation without a “security” It provides opportunities for militaries in the region to train and operate jointly and increase military-to-military contact, without the raised eyebrows associated with a “military exercise” or a military grouping. The significant goodwill generated can smoothen the way for other alliances, activities and even interventions.
• Military Messaging. Mobilisation of military assets for HADR deployments is showcased as soft-power outreach, but essentially, HADR readiness is also a pointer of operational readiness. The speed and scale of deployment sends the right messages.
• Research and Innovation. While actual deployments would be based on the scope and nature of disaster, routine joint training and sharing of best practices in the Preparatory Phase of the Disaster Management Cycle itself is a major platform for showcasing the research, innovations and best practices from the Defence Research as well as private manufacturers. For example, “Raksha Kawach”, a simple but effective innovation by Lt Col Paul of the Armed Forces Medical College, Pune, India^[iv] was showcased at PANEX-21. The mechanism is for reducing the contagious aerosols from a COVID patient and minimising the risks to HCW as well as other patients, which would be beneficial to other countries in the region. Similarly, from passive DRDO innovations like a quick deployable isolation hospital to “Dual Use” technologies for surveillance, communications and rescue operations can be showcased, in an increasingly competitive world.
• Maintenance of Peace. The Disaster aftermath is often a breeding ground for law-and-order problems, and the presence of a disciplined and respected force quells despair that forces the community to sink into lawlessness. By a limited stretch of imagination, a quick response to contain the damage in the recipient country also messages inimical forces. Disasters also expose certain socio-economic and security vulnerabilities of the affected area, where adversaries with specific agendas would rush to fill the void and gain traction for specific narratives. Military deployment for HADR ops under the regional umbrella can thwart this threat to a considerable extent for the greater good of both the recipient nation as well as the donor.

When to use the Military

It is important to lay down terms of reference for the employment of militaries for this secondary role, to obviate sensitivities and respect jurisdictions. Military operations for HADR must always be in support of a regional or national HADR agency, as a tool to supplement the existing relief mechanism.

Deployment must always be at the request of the recipient state, under a Regional Framework Agreement. The regional grouping HQ or secretariat may take the decision for regional military deployment based on:

• The scale of the disaster
• Nature of response/aid needed
• Proximity and capability of other responders
• Need for specialised military equipment.

The final utilisation and deployment must be under the aegis of the recipient state, with a regional control cell coordinating the regional and global relief efforts. Necessary clearances and readiness of humanitarian support and relief material, teams and equipment must be worked out in the preparatory phase itself. This calls for institutionalisation of diplomatic and legal protocols for regional humanitarian response.

One Framework for ‘One Region- One Response’

The offer of military assets to another country for HADR operations is usually coordinated through bilateral offers of disaster assistance. The pooling in of military resources at the regional level is certain to result in economy of effort and optimising the efficiency of response.

ASEAN has already done so with its Concept Paper on the ASEAN Militaries Ready Group (AMRG), a coordinated military capacity that would deploy under the ‘One ASEAN, One Response’ framework. The ‘Expert Working Group’ of ASEAN Defence Ministers developed standard operating procedures to streamline the management of multilateral military teams for rapid and coordinated deployment to disaster areas. The concept for AMRG was thus born.^[v]

A similar arrangement exists in the Caribbean, where ‘CARICOM Disaster Relief Unit’ is a regional response mechanism that mobilises and deploys to CARICOM States after disaster strikes, but the AMRG model is more evolved, resulting in a truly multilateral approach to HADR and showcasing ASEAN as the pioneer in multilateral military cooperation for OOTW.

The complexity of regional military support for HADR involves synchronisation of regional efforts for risk assessment, institutionalisation of contributing assets, jurisdictional issues, security and legal sanction for other militaries, coordination of move and deployment and harmonisation of response plans. Thus, there is a need to set up a regional organisational structure and framework treaties.

Regional Organisational Structure

For HADR to move away from bilateral or multilateral trappings to a truly regional paradigm, an organisational structure with embedded channels of control & communications is a prerequisite. The common ground of agreement in a humanitarian crisis scenario needs to be deliberated, found, accepted and evolved into a regional institutional & legal framework to ease coordination of relief efforts in a dynamic, chaotic post disaster environment.

Since different nations have different capacities and capabilities, a mapping of these military assets volunteered by member countries will need to be done, recommended under the following heads:

• Mobility Assets: Ships, transport aircraft, vehicles, engineering and plant equipment.
• Communication Assets : Quick deployable towers, satellite communication sets, radio sets.
• Surveillance and Reconnaissance Assets : Drones, Quadcopters, Unmanned Ground Vehicles, radars, surveillance aircraft.
• Search, Rescue and Evacuation Assets: Special Forces, Heartbeat sensors, rafts, Helicopters.
• Medical Assets: Quick deployment teams and medical/surgical equipment or medicines, field hospitals or surgical centres, diagnostic laboratories etc.
• Survival Assets: Relief aid packages including foodstuff, blankets, tentage, storage shelters, mobile sanitation arrangements, electricity generators etc.
• Human Resource Assets: Experts in technology, communications, debris clearance, logisticians, doctors.
• Capacity Building Assets: Training facilities, conduct of exercises, SOPs etc.

To harmonise efforts of multiple stakeholders from transnational to local levels for containment, mitigation and response in the event of a disaster, the regional grouping must evolve and formalise institutional and legal frameworks for information dissemination, mobilisation of resources, interoperability, channels of communication & cooperation to include military assets.

On occurrence of a disaster that needs a regional response, the affected member state may requisition the regional coordinator. This may be for specific assistance or a general call for help. In the latter case, an ‘Empowered Group of Experts’ may lay out the specifics. Based on the prioritisation and time of requirement of specific assets, their movement from donor members will be coordinated under the ratified framework.

Hence it is imperative that the militaries of all nations be co-opted in the formulation of the institutional arrangements. They must also participate in various HADR exercises at national and regional levels to enhance training and interoperability.

A Note of Caution

Governmental and military organisations historically prefer structures that are strictly hierarchical, promoting clear channels of information flow (Need to Know) and accountability through Chain of Command (executive orders). However, Disaster Response is an arena where information is scanty and fragmented, communications are jeopardised, and decisions made will affect lives.  Effective incident response is relative to four key capabilities^[vi]:

• Rapid adaptation in response to changing conditions.
• Management of distributed information.
• Effective coordination between responders.
• Emergent collective action.

Philippines experience in response to the Typhoon Washi (2010) by the existing hierarchical response structure failed to build relationships between responding agencies at the ground level which were severely restricted due to bureaucratic protocols^[vii].

An organisation with great degree of formalisation requires more time and effort just to comply with bureaucratic protocols. For disaster response, rigid and hierarchical structures must be changed in favour of flexible organisational structures based on shared leadership, making it possible to adapt faster to dynamic situations.^[viii]

Hence, it is imperative that the regional apparatus must facilitate rapid bonding of contingents, ensure reliable common operating picture/situational awareness, quick decision making in a chaotic disaster environment, without infringing perceived national jurisdictions and trespassing on the local sensitivities.

Interoperability would be key, which needs evolution of a common vocabulary for overcoming language barriers, compatible communication systems and simple protocols, participative training and military to military coordination by joint HADR exercises as well as open channels of communication. All the above requirements point towards a flat and modular structure and not a tall and hierarchical one.

Why should we start with BIMSTEC?

BIMSTEC is substantial. BIMSTEC accounts for 22% of the global population – over 1.5 billion people – and has a combined economy of USD 2.7 trillion (GDP).^[ix]  It is often repeated that the grouping has potential to interface between South Asia and South East Asia (read ASEAN) or even bridge South East Asia with the Gulf Countries.

BIMSTEC is relevant. With the effectiveness of SAARC being watered down,^[x] all eyes are now on BIMSTEC towards fructification of the Neighbourhood First and Act East policies. This was also signalled by PM Modi’s invitations to BIMSTEC leaders for the swearing in ceremony for his second term, in place of SAARC leaders whom he had invited the first time.

BIMSTEC is Disaster Prone. The “World’s Hazard Belt”, the Indian Ocean Region, is naturally prone to disasters due to a combination of hydrological and geological factors. Within Asia, 30% of all natural disasters in Asia affect the BIMSTEC grouping.  Disasters in the past five years affected 1.28 billion people and resulted in damages of over USD 154 billion^[xi] and this is not counting the COVID pandemic.

Leadership is Aligned. BIMSTEC leaders have already encouraged closer cooperation in disaster management through info-sharing, adoption of preventive measures, joint action on relief and rehabilitation and capacity building.

Initiatives have already been taken. BIMSTEC has already taken baby steps in HADR collaboration by way of three joint exercises, the latest one being PANEX-21 at Pune. The BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate (BCWC) is established and provides information and capacity building assistance to member nations. India is also providing Disaster Early Warnings and has set up a link between BIMSTEC countries through the Tsunami Early Warning Centre.^[xii]

This is an opportune time. The Draft Charter of BIMSTEC secretariat is likely to be ratified in the 5th Summit likely to be held soon. 14 erstwhile shared areas of interest are being whittled down to 7 sectors, with a Member State as lead country in coordinating activities in each sector.

Disaster Management will be clubbed under the Security Sector with India as the Lead Country. This is a golden opportunity to press for greater regional cooperation, because “Together, we win!” the cooperation model, once validated, can be suitably modified for other regional groupings.

CDS Gen Bipin Rawat’s last public appearance was when he addressed delegates for the PANEX-21 Curtain Raiser. He spoke about highlighted the importance of drawing ‘Common Legal Frameworks and Information Sharing Mechanism’ to simplify Defence Cooperation among BIMSTEC Nations.^[xiii] The time has come for this vision to be realised.

Author Brief Bio: Colonel Rajat Mohan Bhatt is a serving Army officer. He is an alumnus of Sherwood College, the Defence Services Staff College, Army War College and the College of Defence Management. He possesses a PG diploma in Disaster Management.

^[i] PIB Press release at https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1778741.

^[ii] One ASEAN, One Response declaration from https://asean.org/storage/2016/09/Declaration-on-One-ASEAN-One-Response.pdf

^[iii] Recorded by the author during PANEX-21 Seminar, Session II, Pune , 20 Dec 2021.

^[iv] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/afmcs-new-device-raksha-kawach-contains-filters-infectious-aerosols/articleshow/79049619.cms

^[v] Trung, Nguyen T., “Ability of the ASEAN Military Ready Group to Provide Effective Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations”, Defense Technical Information Centre (US DoD) report from https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD1125002

^[vi] Nowell, B., Steelman, T., Velez, A.-L. K., & Yang, Z. (2017). The Structure of Effective Governance of Disaster Response Networks: Insights From the Field. American Review of Public Administration Vol. 48(7), 699-715.

^[vii] Jovita, H. D., Nurmandi, A., Mutiarin, D., & Purnomo, E. P. (2018). Why does network governance fail in managing post-disaster conditions in the Philippines?. Jàmbá Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 10(1).

^[viii] Gaspary, E., Moura, G., & Wegner, D. (2020). How does the organisational structure influence a work environment for innovation? Int. J. Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management, 24(2,3), 132-153.

^[ix] MEA. (2020). Brief on BIMSTEC. Delhi.

^[x] Jawad Falak, Implacable Failures of the SAARC,  21 Jun 2017, from https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/politics-governance/implacable-failures-of-the-saarc/

^[xi] Data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED, Belgium)

^[xii] https://mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/BIMSTEC_June_2020.pdf

^[xiii] https://news.abplive.com/photo-gallery/news/india-cds-gen-bipin-rawat-s-last-public-appearance-as-he-addressed-panex-21-1498619

Author: Sandhya Jain

Publisher: K W Publishers Pvt Ltd;

Hardcover:  346 pages

Book Review by Maj Gen Dhruv C. Katoch

The book, “Balochistan: In the Crosshairs of History,” authored by Sandhya Jain, is an exceptionally well researched treatise on Balochistan. Brilliantly researched and presented in a very readable format, the book covers in its swathe the entire gamut of Baloch identity and history, the machinations which led to the Baloch lands being hived off to Iran and Afghanistan, and the traumatic manner in which Balochistan was forcibly merged with Pakistan. Thereafter begins the quest by the Baloch people to regain their independence from the stifling oppression of the Pakistani state, a quest which continues upto the present times, in the hope that someday, the Baloch people will finally regain their freedom.

Spread over 347,190 square kms Balochistan is the largest of Pakistan’s four provinces, with 43.6 percent of the total land mass. But in terms of population, it is Pakistan’s smallest province with less than five percent of the total population. The contrast between territory and population largely shapes Balochistan’s particular situation and problems. It contains most of Pakistan’s mineral and energy resources but its small population gives it little say both in Pakistan’s national politics and over how its huge resources are developed.

In the Middle Ages, the decline of the Caliphate in the 11th century CE led to the rise of the Baloch in Makran. Mir Chakar, the leader of the Rind Tribe, laid the foundation for large scale Baloch migration into those lands in the late 15^th Century after he had briefly conquered Punjab and Sindh. However, the present land boundary of Balochistan was a creation of British imperialism largely for geographical, administrative and security reasons. It was an artificial construct which divided the Baloch lands between the British Empire of India and the Persian Empire to the West, when the Goldsmid Line was drawn in 1871, giving away almost a quarter of Baloch territory to Iran. The Durand Line, drawn in 1893, further ceded a strip of Baloch land to Afghanistan. The British then divided the Baloch areas under their influence into three parts, one of which became the Kalat State, with Lasbela, Kharan and Makran as its vassals. One part became British Balochistan and the third was the tribal areas. Sir Robert Sandeman, who later became the Chief Commissioner of Balochistan, was the architect of British strategy in the region and he negotiated a number of treaties with the Khan of Kalat during 1854 to 1901. Through these treaties the British Government gained control over the leased territory of Chaghi, Bolan Pass, Quetta and other areas.

The principality which Baloch Nationalists regard as the historic Baloch national state was that of Kalat, founded in 1638. In 1876, the British signed a treaty with the Khan of Kalat by which Kalat and its dependant territories came under British suzerainty. In a meeting held in Delhi on 4^th August 1947 between Lord Mountbatten and the Khan of Kalat, and which was attended by Mr Jinnah, Lord Mountbatten assured the Khan that the state of Kalat would revert to its pre 1876 status and become independent on 15 August 1947. The rulers of Kharan and Lasbela were informed by the British that they had been placed under the suzerainty of the Khan. Control over the Marri and Bugti regions was also reverted to the Khan thereby bringing the entire Baloch areas of British India under the direct or indirect control of Mir Ahmad Yaar, the Khan of Kalat. The Khan declared his independence on 15 August 1947 and offered a special relationship to Pakistan in the field of defence, foreign affairs and communication. But the state was usurped by Jinnah, with the Khan of Kalat being forced to sign the instrument of accession. The legal entity of Kalat was abolished and most of the members of the Balochistan cabinet were arrested or exiled from Balochistan. Thus began the resistance to Pakistani rule.

The quest for independence is an ember which the Baloch people have kept lit in their hearts. The various insurgencies which keep erupting from time to time is a testament to the spirit of freedom which the Baloch people keep in their breasts despite the ruthlessness with which the Pakistani state continues to suppress them. This aspect is highlighted by the author along with her prognosis for what the future holds. A combination of geo-political factors have, unfortunately placed Balochistan in an unenviable position wherein both their neighbours—Iran and Afghanistan—are actually wary of Baloch independence as this will ignite passions in the Sistan and Baluchestan province of Iran as well as in the Baloch population in Afghanistan, which may seek merger with the larger Baloch grouping. Baloch independence thus appears to be a chimera, as external support, which is an essential component of such movements, is not available. India can do little to help as it lacks land connectivity to Balochistan.

The author has also delved into the economic exploitation of Balochistan and how the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (C-PEC) is aggravating tension amongst the Baloch people, especially with Gwadar being developed as a port by China. Balochistan’s coastline with the Arabian Sea has five official ports, but it also has several unofficial natural small jetties which are exploited by smugglers and drug traffickers, which adds to the volatility in the region. In the final chapter of her book, the author has delved into the geo-strategic significance of the region and the interplay of regional and global dynamics which continue to pan out to the detriment of Balochistan.

This is a book which must be read by a wide audience, from college students to military personnel, from diplomats to researchers in think tanks and from history buffs to the lay reader. The author brings out with amazing clarity, the interplay of social dynamics within the various Baloch communities as well as within Pakistani society as a whole and juxtaposes these into the regional and global dynamics that are continually playing out in the region. A great deal of scholarship has gone into the writing of this book as evidenced by the extensive footnotes at the end of each chapter. Besides its eminent readability, it is also a great scholarly work, which can be used as a reference book and thus eminently qualifies to adorn the bookshelves of all libraries.

Brief Bio: Maj Gen Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.

Introduction

The last couple of years have witnessed two cataclysmic events which are now shaping a new world order. The first of these was the emergence of a pandemic, caused by the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which caused the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).  The first reported case of COVID-19 occurred in China as early as November 2019. The virus would soon engulf the world in a pandemic that still has not been brought under control, despite the fact that we now have a vaccine to ward off the more lethal aspects of the disease. The second event was the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban on 15 August 2021. Both these events, when viewed through the prism of national security, throw up a series of possible challenges which India may have to confront in the coming years. These would require to be addressed at the highest policy making levels.

Three additional factors that will contribute to global instability, and which India will have to confront are the impact of climate change, the global thirst for natural resources and the quest to be a leader in the development of advanced technology.

The Pandemic

SARS-CoV-2 is possibly a man-made virus, which emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), in Wuhan, China. Chinese reticence in the matter and the fact that it withheld information, has fuelled suspicions of a “lab-leak”.^[i] But the strategic implications are important for India to take note of. We are entering the era of bio-weapons and while these may have been banned by the UN Biological Weapons Convention, which effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons,^[ii] many countries still continue to carry out such experiments, and may even have stockpiled such weapons. The possibility of such man-made disasters occurring in the future, or the deliberate use of such weapons by a hostile power, hence cannot be ruled out.

India had limited resources to handle the pandemic in early 2020, but facilities were soon ramped up and through preventive measures such as closing down the country, a large-scale tragedy was averted. But we cannot be in a governance mode which is only dependant on shutting off people from work in order to save lives, as this impinges on the livelihood of the poorest of India’s poor. We need to have organisations and systems in place to provide early warning of emergencies which may occur due to biological or any other form of attack and have plans in place to deal with such eventualities. The strategy must be to formulate preemptive policies on national emergencies and not act through disaster management procedures. This requires a measure of political unity across party lines and a very agile and forward-looking bureaucracy, which can assess a situation and take focussed action on a geographical area to contain the spread, rather than a ‘one size fits all’ approach. Obviously, a lot of advanced thinking and contingency planning would be required, which can be put into motion as and when the need arises. For this, all organs of the state must work in synergy to overcome the challenge at hand. Prompt action is important. India did not study the China case immediately after it occurred, perhaps because the Chinese kept a tight lid on the matter. In any case, the information available was sketchy and little was known then about SARS-CoV-2, but in future, all our embassies abroad as well as the health ministry in the Centre and in each state need to keep track of any such occurrence anywhere in the world, to enable a more strategised and coordinated approach to tackling future pandemics.

On the positive side, the efforts of India’s scientist in developing a vaccine, which many thought was not possible for India to achieve, was indeed laudable. The Prime Minister and his government gave full support to all such efforts, which was why India has emerged as the major supplier of vaccines, not just for its own population, but also to the world.

A major fall out of the pandemic has been the disruption of supply chains. The supply shock that started in China in February 2020 was followed by a demand shock as the global economy shut down exposing vulnerabilities in many critical sectors and leading now to what can loosely be termed as economic nationalism.^[iii] This is a lesson India and indeed the rest of the world has learnt to its cost, as many countries had critical dependencies on China. The need for diversification of imports for critical items, especially in critical sectors such as pharma has to be ensured, to avoid shortages in times of crisis.

The Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan was a foregone conclusion, once an agreement was reached between the US representatives and the Taliban leadership in Doha on 29 February 2020.^[iv] The Afghan government was not part of the accord which further eroded its credibility. President Biden committed the US to withdraw all forces in Afghanistan by 31 August, the deadline being given to mark the passage of two decades of the September 11 terror attacks on the United States. The Taliban however did not wait for the deadline to end and by mid-August, in a series of attacks on the Afghan forces, had taken over most parts of the country and were on the outskirts of Kabul. By the evening of 15 August, Kabul fell to the Taliban without a shot being fired, leaving the country in total control of the Taliban.

The implications of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan are many. It marks a shift in the geo-strategic landscape of Central Asia, with the US no longer a major voice in the region. Surprisingly, none of the regional players, especially Russia and China have moved in to fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of US forces. As of 31 October 2021, no country has accorded recognition to the new regime. An essential condition to regime recognition will be a more inclusive government and the grant of rights to women in Afghanistan. The Taliban may be constrained in treading a more liberal path as other terrorist outfits in Afghanistan, such as the Islamic State could exploit this to further their own agenda. In the meantime, the possibility of Islamic terrorist organisations making their way to Afghanistan, to seek a safe haven, is high. This could lead to such groups using Afghan territory to plot attacks in other parts of the globe. How the situation unfolds is to be seen, but the possibility of Afghanistan slipping into civil war remains a high possibility.

For India, the events in Afghanistan can have three possible major repercussions. One, it could lead to a spurt in terrorist activity within the Union Territory of J&K. This is premised on the possibility of Pakistan sending in terrorists from Pakistan based organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba, which were earlier fighting alongside the Taliban and which now can be used against India. This level of threat however, will pose but a limited challenge to India, as security in the hinterland as also along the Line of Control is adequate to deal with such elements.

A more insidious threat however, is the spurt in radicalisation that could occur within India, through a virulent Islamic ideology emanating from Afghanistan, calling for the establishment of an Islamic state in India. Some of the states that could be vulnerable to such an insidious form of subversion are West Bengal and Kerala as also the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Indian agencies would need to keep a tight watch on the social media and on the activities of subversive groups to prevent such an occurrence from gaining credence. It would show in civil disturbance movements which could align themselves with political groups and NGOs, ostensibly to highlight local concerns, but with an ulterior motive of destabilising the state.

The third threat that could possibly manifest is the Pakistani state coming under Taliban rule, facilitated by the military. While the possibility is low, seeing the extent to which Pakistani society has been radicalised, it cannot be summarily dismissed either. The danger to India would be a human crisis in Pakistan that could potentially lead to millions of Pakistanis fleeing their homes to seek shelter in India, just as the Afghans are fleeing their homeland now. How such a situation is to be dealt with, should it come about, needs to thought of and factored into our security calculus.

Non-Conventional Threats

The threats we face are not confined to the internal and external security domains but reflect in other sectors as well. Here, I make mention of three potential areas of concern, whose impact on India could be debilitating. The first of these is the impact of climate change leading to a rise in ocean levels. Amongst India’s neighbours, Bangladesh would be greatly impacted, with large swathes of its land mass getting submerged. This could possibly lead to a lead to a huge human migration, with the only refuge being in India. How such a contingency can be handled, would also need to be a part of the security matrix of the country.

Shortage of resources caused by a black swan event could also be a critical destabilising factor. We need to look into probable events that could occur, such as the possibility of a conflagration taking place in the Gulf, which could potentially lead to the closure of oil producing facilities as well as of shipping across the Strait of Hormuz. As India is dependant on energy from the Gulf, such an eventuality would be catastrophic and would set back India’s development effort by many years.

Of equal import is the need to protect our indigenous industry. Not just our hostile neighbours, but all our competitors would like to see India dependant on them. As an example, there is a distinct attempt being made to stifle India’s copper and aluminium production. The intent is covered under the garb of environmental protection and other such social causes. But we need to take a deeper look at who the beneficiaries are in this game and ask why buying from them is not creating similar environmental concerns in their country. We need to stop being gullible and chart a course that is in India’s interest and not get enslaved again by foreign powers.

Advanced technologies will play a major role in the ability of major powers to gain dominance in the world order. Emerging fields such as Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, spatial computing, Green Hydrogen, Biometrics, Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality, Blockchain, Robotics, Internet of Things (IoT) are some of the exciting technologies that will shape the way we live, work and interact with each other. The leaders in these fields will be the dominant players in the new world order, and India cannot miss the bus as we did earlier in the industrial revolution. This is a filed where competition is intense and the line between friend and foe get blurred. India will not only have to invest in these technologies, but will have to ensure the safety of our scientific manpower.

Conclusion

The challenges India faces in the emerging new world order are immense and encompass a wide range of conventional and non-conventional threats. Our ability to maintain social harmony will be a critical factor to enable the achievement of development goals. We have a political leadership that has the vision to take India forward, but it would require a very agile bureaucracy to foresee potential challenges and to implement the goals set out. A change of mindset in the bureaucracy from controllers to facilitators is also the need of the hour. Bharat can rise if the ordinary Indian is unshackled, the society remains cohesive and an environment for excellence is created across all domains.

Author Brief Bio: Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.

References:

^[i] Amy Maxmen & Smriti Mallapaty, The COVID lab-leak hypothesis: what scientists do and don’t know available at https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01529-3

^[ii] https://www.un.org/disarmament/biological-weapons/

^[iii] https://hbr.org/2020/09/global-supply-chains-in-a-post-pandemic-world

^[iv] https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

Hindu and Buddhist priests and monks were the first people to carry India’s influence across its boundaries two millennia ago. The Buddhist monks largely chose the land routes with the exception of Sri Lanka, where Buddhism was taken by the son and daughter of emperor Ashoka – Mahinda and Sanghamitra – in 3^rd century BCE. Monks from Northern India had traveled to Tibet, China, Mongolia and Bhutan carrying the religion of Buddha. On the other hand, the Hindu priests too managed to reach countries as far as Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia in the initial centuries of the first millennium carrying with them the benign religion of Hinduism. While there were references to instances of the Greek and Hindu scholars exchanging philosophical ideas in the pre-Christian era, recorded evidence of Hindu influence over the countries in the Indian Ocean region dates back to 4^thcentury CE.

Almost for a millennium after that, the region, which is today described as South East Asia, used to be called as Greater India. Although the southern empires like the Cholas and Pandyas had undertaken military expeditions through the great oceans to expand their influence over remote islands like Borneo and Bali, it in effect remained cultural only to a great extent. The religion and culture of the benign colonisers were heartily welcomed by the subject societies leading to establishment of not only the religious customs and traditions but also large temples and monuments. From Bali in Indonesia to Cham areas in Vietnam to Angkor Vat ruins in Cambodia, the living and historical evidences of the influence of India is conspicuous to this day.

History progressed, and socio-politico-religious realities of these lands had undergone major changes over centuries. India too was preoccupied with its battles against the invaders for almost a millennium, and hence had no time for its cultural empire. Yet, the historical memories did not fade away. When the time came to unshackle from the imperialist yoke, India did not think only about itself, but the entire Asian neighbourhood. If Rishi Aurobindo talked about Asian renaissance as India’s historic responsibility, Gandhi and Nehru talked about Asian relations for anti-imperialist brotherhood.

In his address to a radio station in Tamil Nadu on the eve of independence, which also happened to be his birthday, Rishi Aurobindo talked about his five dreams.^[i]  While advocating for freedom and unity for people of India as his first dream, Aurobindo turned to Asian resurgence as his second dream in which India had an important role to play. “Asia has arisen; large parts are now quite free or are at this moment being liberated; its other still subject or partly subject parts are moving through whatever struggles towards freedom. Only a little has to be done and that will be done today or tomorrow. There, India has her part to play and has begun to play it with energy and ability which already indicate the measure of her possibilities and the place she can take in the council of nations,” he exhorted.

A few months before Aurobindo’s exhortation came the Asian Relations Conference on 23-25 March 1947 called by Jawahar Lal Nehru with the objective of bringing about a “psychological revolution,” “a new imagination of Asia”. There were 230 delegates and observers from 30 countries at the conference, highlighting the faith and trust reposed by many of them in India’s leadership. A new ‘Asianism’ or ‘Third Worldism’ was born at the conference. Unlike the Asianism of India thus far, which was limited to the cultural remnants in Greater India, Nehru’s mission was to create an Asian federation that would eventually be a step in the direction of greater world federation. Interestingly, Aurobindo too talks about the same idea as his third dream a few months later.

Although Nehru declared that his intention was not “against anybody,” he and other speakers at the conference were equally categorical that the new Asianism would make sure that Asians wouldn’t become the “playthings of others”. There was a clear desire articulated by many speakers at the conference that Asia should be free of Western influences. It cannot be Communist either. Hence the idea that Asian nations should form a coalition as Third World countries.

Gandhi was invited to deliver a speech on the last day of the conference. He made certain interesting observations. Terming all wise men from Zoroaster to Buddha to Jesus to Mohammad – not to talk of Rama and Krishna – to be belonging to East, Gandhi emphasised on Asia’s antidotal message to the West. “What I want you to understand is the message of Asia. It is not to be learnt through the western spectacles or by imitating the atom bomb. In this age of democracy, in this age of awakening of the poorest of the poor, you can redeliver this message with the greatest emphasis. You will complete the conquest of the West, not through vengeance, because you have been exploited, but with real understanding. I am sanguine, if all of you put your hearts together – not merely heads – to understand the secret of the message these wise men of the East have left to us, and if we really become worthy of that great message, the conquest of the West will be completed. This conquest will be loved by the West itself”, Gandhi told the conference.^[ii]

Asian Relations Conference did not survive for long. Nehru’s Asianism dream died its quiet death after the Bandung Conference of Non-Aligned nations in Indonesia in 1955. But Asianism and Third Worldism did not die. Asianism survived through different experimentations in the region like EAS, SAARC, BIMSTEC and IORA. It manifested through the principle of ‘Neighbourhood First’ in 1990s and transformed into the principle of ‘together we grow’ under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Third Worldism took the shape of non-alignment in later years and ‘strategic autonomy’ today.

At a time when a new Cold War is beginning to threaten the world order, India needed to turn a leaf or two from the old-world politics of Asian centrality and strategic neutrality. More importantly, it should realise that it has a much bigger role to play in the world politics than what Nehru had intended to seven decades ago.

Asianism of the last century did not succeed partly because India and China – two large nations in the region – could not get along. The Sino-Indian War of 1962 had thrown water over Indian romanticism about leading the Third World with Asian centrality. But the fact that its immediate playground is its Asian neighbourhood was never forgotten. With the formation of SAARC and BIMSTEC, it tried to return to its pet theme. It evolved further when India became a full dialogue partner with ASEAN in 1995 and developed its own ‘Look East policy’.

Nelson Mandela, the legendary leader of South Africa visited India in the same year. That visit had resulted in the birth of another regional coalition called the Indian Ocean Rim Association – IORA. During Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime, the Look East policy has been upgraded into Act East policy. Through these initiatives India tried to revive its Asianism theme. It had its Achilles’ Heel to its west in Pakistan and by extension the Arab and Islamic Middle East and West Asia. In the last few years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has successfully attempted to overcome the jinx and build stronger ties with that region too.

While the 20^th century ended with the collapse of the Cold War politics, the world did not remain multilateral for long. A new Cold War is taking shape in the new century with Eurasia and Indo-Pacific emerging as the epicentres of global power politics. Unlike the last century when the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States was fought in far away Pacific-Atlantic region, the new Cold War is raging in India’s immediate neighbourhood.

One of the central themes of the Asianism of 1940s and 50s was that Asia wouldn’t be allowed to become a playground of big power rivalry. In his Shangri La address in 2018 at Singapore, Prime Minister Modi reiterated it by insisting on Indo-pacific region to be inclusive and peaceful.^[iii] Many Asian nations aspire for it as new war clouds gather in the region.

Like at the time of budding Asianism in the last century, China remains a challenge in this region now also. During the last Cold War, China benefitted massively by siding openly with America from 1970s onwards. China’s current economic prosperity is a gift of America in the 1980s and 90s. India cannot afford such politics because the new Cold War is being fought at its doorstep. Aggression of China in the Indo-Pacific region and formation of new military alliances like AUKUS led by America to counter that aggression have the potential to turn the Asian region into an Armageddon. Together, they will bring highest number of nuclear submarines in India’s backyard.

India needs to recalibrate its response to this evolving challenge carefully. Western Quad may be a romantic idea to checkmate China in UAE and Israel, but what is more important for India is the Indian Ocean region. Countries in this region look up to India as the biggest power in the neighbourhood. At the Asian Relations Conference, there were a large number of leaders present from this region and they were the most supportive of all to India’s leadership. In a way, it is India’s natural region of comfort.

India needs to invest more energy on this region. It’s relations with immediate neighbours like Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, with whom it shares a strong cultural and people-to-people bonds, need greater attention. China’s footprints are all over in the region. India needs to go beyond its diplomats and build newer and firmer bridges with leaders and peoples in these countries.

There is a misplaced obsession with India’s soft power potential in its neighbourhood among sections of Indian political establishment. It is time we realised that soft power in its conventional form is an over-used and outlived concept. Need of the hour is smart or sharp power, where the cultural advantages are used strategically to secure national interests. Building an International Airport at the Buddhist pilgrim centre of Kushinagar in Uttar Pradesh by Modi government is one such example of smart power in action.^[iv]

While we should continue to benefit from our growing bonds with America and other western powers, we must never give up on the core principles of foreign policy set at the time of independence that include Asian centrality, inclusivity, and strategic autonomy. While China is a ‘risen power,’ India is the ‘rising power’ in the region and if strategised well, it has the potential to play the pivotal role in building a ‘world union’ envisaged by Aurobindo and other leaders of independence on the basis of a resurgent Asianism.

 

Author Brief Bio: Shri Ram Madhav is an Indian politician, author and thinker who is the Former National General Secretary of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He is a Member of the Board of Governors of India Foundation. He also serves as a Member of the National Executive of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS).

References:

^[i] https://aurosociety.org/society/index/1947%2C-August-15th-Message

^[ii] https://www.mkgandhi.org/speeches/interasian.htm

^[iii] https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/29943/Prime+Ministers+Keynote+Address+at+Shangri+La+Dialogue+June+01+2018

^[iv] https://www.livemint.com/news/india/how-up-s-kushinagar-international-airport-will-prove-to-be-a-gamechanger-11634615206930.html

The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan has triggered a new ‘Great Game’. From the time Tsarist Russia and the British Empire vied for influence in Central Asia, Afghanistan has been a pivot of great power rivalry. While London and Moscow avoided conflict and the British retreat from the subcontinent in 1947 provided a lull, things changed with the Soviet invasion in 1979. Moscow retreated a decade later, leading to the eventual rise of the Taliban, till the 2001 terror attacks on American soil led to US intervention. Washington’s retreat two decades later facilitated the Taliban’s return; its impact is reverberating across the globe.

AUKUS – NATO

Soon after Taliban walked unopposed into Kabul on 15 August 2021, President Joe Biden announced a security alliance on 15 September 2021, comprising Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, known now by its acronym – AUKUS.^[1] This nuclear coalition was created to bypass a declining North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and European Union (EU), balance the constraints of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), defend Taiwan, and contain China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. The AUKUS stunned Washington’s NATO and EU allies; France’s US$ 90 billion submarine deal with Australia was collateral damage.

Mocked by critics as an Anglo-Saxon pact, AUKUS is an alliance of three nations, neither of whom have land links with Eurasia. Britain, once the paramount naval power, is keen to return to Oceania, while the United States is the world’s preeminent naval power. Between them, they can provide heft to the Australian navy and help overcome Canberra’s concerns about a direct attack from Beijing, to which it has closest proximity. Australia was the natural choice to complete the alliance as it is a member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence gathering system presided over by the United States.

The new trilateral alliance was needed because pacts like A-NZ-US have long been dead. Moreover, New Zealand had opted for nuclear disarmament in 1985 and reiterated its decision to deny nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered ships access to its ports.^[2] The European Union is not a military power and some members desire a truce with China that is now the EU’s largest trading partner and investor. Europe also relies on Russian oil and gas for energy. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is keen on a vast free trade area that includes China. Philippine Foreign Minister Teodoro Locsin, however, welcomed the pact as ASEAN member states lack the military resources to maintain peace and security in the region.^[3]

The key concern in Washington and London is Taiwan, which the People’s Republic of China may try to seize by force. Analyst Ram Madhav observes in the event of conflict in the Taiwan Straits, Washington would need Australia as a base as the Okinawa base in Japan has become obsolete with China’s improved missile capability.^[4] The AUKUS Pact will bring the trio to Taiwan’s rescue. At the G7 summit in Cornwall, UK, in June 2021, Japan emphasised the importance of Taiwan’s security. Analyst Thierry Meyssan believes that Biden, Morrison and Johnson discussed the new alliance in Cornwall.^[5]

The presence of Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton in Washington suggests the pact goes deeper than buying nuclear submarines and could cover space, missiles, quantum computing, cyber-warfare, underwater systems, long-range strike capabilities, artificial intelligence and grey warfare on the internet. Vice-Admiral David Johnston, Vice Chief of the Australian Defence Force, also attended the White House meeting.

The AUKUS will equip Australia with Tomahawks and Hornet missiles and involve it in research into hypersonic missiles that can compete with Russian nuclear missiles.^[6] Over 18-months, the allies will decide whether the British or American submarine is the best option for Canberra, along with workforce, shipyard and training needs. Construction would begin “within the decade” and the first submarines could be operational by end-2030s.

Diplomatic engagements, however, continue. On September 10, President Xi Jinping made a telephone call to President Biden to resolve the issue of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of telecom giant Huawei, who was detained in Canada at Washington’s request in December 2018. She was released on September 24 after all charges were dropped; simultaneously, former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor, held soon after Meng’s arrest, were released from Chinese jails and sent back to Canada.^[7]

On September 28-29, the 16th round of US-PRC Defence Policy Coordination talks were held between Michael Chase, US deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, and Chinese Major General Huang Xueping, via video conference. In early September, Beijing urged Canberra to facilitate its joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, hinting at the need for cooperation despite some glitches (Beijing imposed punitive sanctions against Australia because Canberra sought an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic). In return for TPP-11 membership, Beijing could reopen its markets to Australian products before the elections of 2022.^[8]

Meanwhile, President Biden spoke with President Macron on September 22; France agreed to send back the French ambassador to Washington.^[9] The two leaders will meet in Europe in late October. It is pertinent that France is the only European nation with nearly two million citizens in the Indo-Pacific, an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 11 million sq. km., and a military presence of 8,000 personnel. It is an important pillar of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

President Macron also spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on telephone on September 21.^[10] They reaffirmed a commitment to act jointly in an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific, including in the framework of the Europe-India relationship and European initiatives in the Indo-Pacific. Both leaders expressed concerns about the situation in Afghanistan, and urged the new authorities in Kabul to sever ties with international terrorism, permit humanitarian bodies to operate throughout the country, respect the fundamental rights of Afghan women and men, and permit evacuation operations to continue unhindered.

QUAD 

The burning question, after the AUKUS emerged as potentially the world’s most powerful military bloc, is how will it complement the Quad? The Quad members resent China’s claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea, but have articulated a broad social agenda and shied away from being perceived as an “Asian NATO”. As India is the only member sharing a large land border with China, the advent of AUKUS has spared New Delhi from being “driven” into military confrontation outside its comfort zone. India’s goals are to protect its northern frontiers and the Indian Ocean Sea lanes.

Indian foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla explained that the Quad is a “plurilateral grouping of countries with a shared vision of their attributes and values,” while the AUKUS is a trilateral security alliance.^[11] Shringla said there is no link between the Quad and the Malabar naval exercise conducted by the navies of India, US and Japan, which Australia joined for the second consecutive year in 2021. However, the Quad agenda includes counterterrorism exercises and could include Quad-plus exercises such as the French-led La Perouse exercise in the Bay of Bengal in early 2021.

As the AUKUS and Quad summits were hosted simultaneously by President Biden, the Australian Prime Minister brought his intelligence chiefs for additional heft: Andrew Shearer (director general, Office of National Intelligence); Rachel Noble (head of Australian Signals Directorate); Mike Burgess (ASIO chief); and Paul Symon (chief of overseas spy network, Australian Secret Intelligence Service). They interacted with their counterparts from India and Japan during the Quad dialogue.

The Biden Administration had hosted the first-ever virtual summit of leaders in March 2021, and on September 24, it hosted the first in-person summit, attended by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.^[12] The Quad identified several areas of co-operation, notably COVID and Global Health (including delivering free vaccines in the Indo-Pacific); Infrastructure; Climate (including a Clean-Hydrogen Partnership); Critical and Emerging Technologies (including a Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative; 5G Deployment and Diversification; Biotechnology Scanning); Cybersecurity (including sharing Satellite Data to Protect the Earth and its Waters); and People-to-People Exchange and Education (including a Quad Fellowship to nurture next-generation talent in all countries in the STEM fields).

The members observed that Beijing achieves supremacy by controlling technologies, building infrastructure and creating dependencies by encouraging debt. They proposed providing reliable alternatives to China’s BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) by building better infrastructure, ensuring equitable growth, fighting climate change and controlling pandemics. Offering infrastructure could meet a felt need of developing countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Since 2015, the member countries have collectively delivered thousands of projects and over US$ 48 billion in official finance for infrastructure in the region.

The Coronavirus pandemic revived the altruistic spirit and Quad pledged to provide 1.2 billion Covid vaccine doses in the Indo-Pacific by 2022, in addition to doses financed through COVAX, India’s decision to resume export of Covid-19 vaccines, including to COVAX, beginning October 2021, was acclaimed widely.^[13] A Quad-Plus group has been formed with New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam, to coordinate responses to the pandemic.

The meeting highlighted the security threats posed by China and Pakistan, and the need to monitor Pakistan’s ambitions in Afghanistan by ensuring that UN Security Council resolution 2593, passed in August under India’s presidency, is upheld. It urged that Afghan territory should not be used to shelter or train terrorists. The joint statement denounced “the use of terrorist proxies” (Pakistan-sponsored) and called for “denying any logistical, financial or military support to terrorist groups which could be used to launch or plan terror attacks, including cross-border attacks”.^[14]

SCO

On 17 September 2021, Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon hosted the 21st meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in hybrid format. Prime Minister Modi, who attended virtually, highlighted the dangers of growing radicalisation and extremism in the broader SCO region and proposed that SCO consider working to promote moderation and scientific and rational thought with the region’s youth.^[15] The SCO Summit was followed by an outreach session on Afghanistan between SCO and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). In his message, Modi suggested that SCO develop a code of ‘zero tolerance’ towards terrorism in the region, and highlighted the risks of drugs, arms and human trafficking from Afghanistan.^[16]

Iran entered the SCO as a full-fledged member. President Ebrahim Raisi expressed Iran’s desire to expand ties with countries in Central and East Asia.^[17] He said Iran brings major geopolitical advantages to the group, including its large population, abundant mineral wealth and strategic location in the Middle East. China is keen to expand its BRI westward. Russian President Vladimir Putin observed that the MoU between the SCO Secretariat and Eurasian Economic Commission will further Russia’s idea of a Greater Eurasia Partnership covering the SCO, the Eurasian Economic Union, Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the BRI.

After the Quad summit, some analysts suggested that India align completely with the United States and withdraw from the SCO. This is unwarranted as India straddles two tumultuous regions: Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. It faces strategic and security challenges in Eurasia and needs the Indo-Pacific for trade. India’s main security concern is terrorism and Washington’s ability to restrain terrorist militias in Pakistan and Afghanistan has declined sharply. A favourable development is that Moscow and Beijing are also threatened by terror outfits in the Af-Pak region (IS-K, Al Qaeda, ETIM etc.)

The SCO is an Eurasian political, economic and security alliance, including three-fifths of the Eurasian landmass, 40 per cent of world population and over 20 per cent of global GDP. It promotes trade, cultural and humanitarian cooperation among its members and espouses a multipolar world order and adherence to the principles enshrined in the UN Charter. There is little merit in exiting this organisation. India is not an island, but a major Asian nation linked with the Eurasian landmass. It needs the goodwill of land neighbours to mitigate the challenges it faces. Currently, and in the foreseeable future, it faces no major threat in the IOR and thus should not lose the leverage afforded by a land-based fraternity. However, amidst fast-changing regional dynamics, India may benefit by focusing on strategic autonomy and Asian centrality. As great powers converge on the Indo-Pacific, it must concentrate on its neighbourhood while minding its strategic interests in Eurasia and the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

AFGHANISTAN AND TALIBAN 2.0

The assumption that some countries would be friendly towards the Taliban proved premature; at the time of writing even Islamabad had not recognised the new regime in Kabul. Iran refused recognition after the Taliban failed to form an inclusive government and its shabby treatment of (Shia) Tajiks and Hazaras. Ankara followed, angry at the exclusion of Turkmen (Turkish-speakers) in the cabinet. But the more serious problem is the surfacing of deep schisms within the Taliban barely a fortnight after its victory, which put a question mark on the regime’s longevity.

The Durand Line drawn by the British in 1893 and inherited by Pakistan in 1947, which divided the Pashtun community and was disowned by successive Afghanistan governments, is currently dividing the ‘moderates’ (Doha group) and ‘hardliners’ (Haqqani Network). The ‘moderates’ led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar favour inclusion of all ethnic groups and women in the cabinet so that the regime gains international approval; they oppose the Durand Line. The Haqqani Network that dominates the government, however, wishes to recognise the Durand Line in gratitude for Pakistan protecting and nurturing the group during the two decades of American occupation.

Differences erupted on September 3, 2021, with reports of fisticuffs between Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and a cabinet minister, and injuries on both sides as their respective followers opened fire. Reports of the incident and possible death of Baradar were strenuously denied even as Inter-Services Intelligence chief, Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, rushed to Kabul on September 4 to help finalise the cabinet and entrench the Haqqani Network. Mullah Baradar disappeared from public view, surfacing only on September 13 in an audio clip claiming he was well. Later, in an interview to the state-run television, Baradar said he was travelling and denied any discord. In reply to a question, he said he could not meet Qatar foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani on September 12 as he did not know that Al-Thani was coming!

However, on September 15, BBC reported that there were heated exchanges between Deputy Prime Minister Baradar and Minister for Refugees Khalil ur-Rahman Haqqani at the presidential palace. The disputes centred on cabinet formation and who should take credit for the victory in Afghanistan. As it was a smooth takeover, Baradar felt credit was due to the diplomacy of the Doha group; the Haqqani group disagreed.^[18] After the fight, Baradar reportedly went to Kandahar to confer with Haibatullah Akhundzada, Amir of the Emirate. Here again, mystery persists as the supreme leader has not been seen in public for over two years, not even after returning to Kandahar after the Taliban victory.

Kabul is also grappling with a financial crisis as Washington froze over US$ 9 billion in funds held in the US Federal Reserve after the Taliban took over the country. In August 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) froze over US$ 440 million in aid (due August 23, 2021) and blocked access to Special Drawing Rights assets that can be converted to government-backed money, due to “lack of clarity within the international community” over recognising a government in Afghanistan.^[19] Soon, the World Bank suspended funding for projects in Afghanistan and the independent money transfer company, Western Union, suspended services to Afghanistan.

Lacking the financial resources to help the Taliban regime, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi visited several countries to garner support for Afghanistan. So far, Pakistan and Qatar have sent humanitarian aid (food and medicine) and China has pledged a minuscule US$ 31 million in aid. Pakistan National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf warned that the world faces the spectre of refugees, drugs, weapons, and transnational terrorism from a destabilised Afghanistan. Conceding that Taliban leaders need to govern Afghanistan more inclusively, he pleaded that the international community create a “conducive environment” or Pakistan would be left to “bear the brunt of any negative spillover from Afghanistan”.^[20]

It is pertinent that the Taliban removed Uyghur freedom fighters from Afghanistan’s border with China. Unsurprisingly, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid stated, “China is our most important partner … [We] care a lot about the Belt and Road project…We own rich copper mines, which, thanks to the Chinese, will be modernised. Finally, China represents our ticket to the markets around the world”.^[21] Scholar Andrew Small, however, believes that Beijing may make some modest investments, but longer-term investments would depend on there being enough stability and security to make them viable.

The financial crisis is severe; there are reports that Taliban fighters are pressing local people for money to buy fuel and food, even seizing food from people in Kunduz, Badakhshan, Takhar, Baghlan, Kapisa and Ghazni provinces. The Taliban is unable to pay its fighters in the provinces or salaries to public servants, or even settle import tariffs on containers of food that have arrived at Karachi port. Yet, it is adamant not to allow women and girls to return to their jobs and schools so that the country can receive international aid.

Taliban brutalities have sent waves of panic across the country. Despite formal promises of amnesty for those who served the previous regime, members of the Afghan diaspora are reporting revenge killings.^[22] In several provinces, former officers of the Special Forces and women employees of the previous government have been killed at home, in front of their families. At times, family members were also murdered. The killings are filmed and sent to commanders in Arg.

On September 24, Taliban fighters forced 482 Hazara families to leave their homes in Gizab, Daikundi province, and bombed the houses when the families resisted. The people say this is “ethnic cleansing”. On October 10, journalists reported that a Taliban court gave 2000 Hazara families in the fifth district of Mazar city, Balkh province, three days to evacuate their homes.

A Shia Mosque bombed in Kunduz during Friday prayers on October 8 killed over 70 persons and injuring nearly 150; Islamic State-Khorasan claimed responsibility. On October 9, the fourth mass grave was found in Rokha district of Panjshir; all bodies had hands tied behind their backs. Unfazed by the rising sense of horror in the international community, Taliban co-founder Mullah Nooruddin Turabi told Associated Press that they will restore punishments such as executions and amputation of hands, though perhaps not in public. He said, “No one will tell us what our laws should be. We will follow Islam and we will make our laws on the Quran.”

On October 15, the Islamic State attacked another Shia Mosque in Kandahar, causing heavy casualties that had not been counted at the time of writing.^[23] Within hours of the attack came reports that Fatemiyoun (Fatimid Division) of Afghan Shia Hazara fighters, trained by late Gen Soleimani to fight Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, were returning from Syria. Some had returned in June after IS was marginalised. The development could make Iran a regional stakeholder in Afghanistan.

Impact in Pakistan

Pakistan soon witnessed violence in North and South Waziristan districts that impacted business and trade as the militants indulge in extortion and kill those who do not or cannot pay. The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Quetta, Baluchistan that took many lives. Emboldened by the rise of Taliban in Afghanistan, the TTP is promising to bring Sharia to Pakistan, causing concern in Islamabad.^[24]

The October 1 ceasefire between Islamabad and the TTP collapsed almost immediately as the TTP hit a military vehicle in Spinwam, North Waziristan, killing five Frontier Corps soldiers on October 2. On October 4, TTP claimed to have killed two Pakistani soldiers in Ghariom Tehsil, North Waziristan. Further, reports suggest that East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and TTP were behind the Dasu terror attack that killed nine Chinese on July 14, 2021, and the August 20 attack by a suicide bomber on Gwadar East Bay expressway project, killing two Pakistanis and injuring three persons, including a Chinese national. More significantly, Islamic State-Khorasan and al Qaeda are operating independently after their cadres were released from Afghan prisons in August. The IS-K was behind the terror attack on Kabul Airport on August 26, while the United States was evacuating its embassy staff and allies; it aimed at undermining the Taliban.^[25] The TTP reportedly receives ideological guidance from al-Qaeda and funds from Islamic State.

Anti-Taliban resistance

Military experts say the National Resistance Front (NRF) led by Ahmad Massoud, former vice president Amrullah Saleh and former minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi needs to recapture Badakshan province to link Tajikistan and Panjshir, in order to have a winning chance. It is pertinent that as Washington was planning its final withdrawal, the Taliban employed a sophisticated drone unit to assassinate Piram Qul, an ethnic Uzbek warlord and veteran of the anti-Soviet war in the 1980s.^[26] Qul joined many anti-Taliban Afghan factions, including Ahmed Shah Massoud’s Jamiati-i-Islami; his stronghold was in Takhar province on the Tajikistan border. He was assassinated on May 2, 2021, after which the Taliban moved against Atta Muhammad Noor (Ustad Atta), a powerful ethnic Tajik, former governor of Balkh province and overlord of the city of Mazar-e-Sharif. His home was attacked on July 1, when he was hosting a meeting with other warlords and politicians.^[27] Though Atta escaped unhurt, he disappeared by the time the Taliban captured Mazar-e-Sharif on August 14.

However, a section of the Afghan army fled to Uzbekistan when the Taliban approached Kabul.^[28] As the Taliban fails to provide food, water, medicines and economic security, and IS-K and/or al Qaeda operate in the country, Moscow may be forced to allow an anti-Taliban force to support the Panjshir Resistance from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Russia could underwrite the security of both nations via the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). New Delhi could offer passive support as it fears that Taliban rule could inspire radical Sunni fighters in Kashmir.

International Diplomacy

The annual meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), scheduled for September, was cancelled by the foreign ministers’ meeting (September 23, 2021) after Islamabad insisted on including the Taliban regime that has not been recognised by the international community.^[29]

The British representative for Afghan transition, Simon Gass, met with Taliban leaders, including acting Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Baradar and Abdul Salam Hanafi of Taliban’s political office in Qatar, on October 5, to discuss aid to mitigate Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis.^[30] Gass stressed the importance of preventing Afghanistan from becoming an incubator for terrorism, and the need for continued safe passage for those wanting to leave the country. He raised the issue of treatment of minorities and the rights of women and girls.

Russia has invited Taliban representatives to join international talks on Afghanistan in Moscow on October 20, which India has agreed to join.^[31] A US delegation met with Taliban representatives in Doha on October 9 and 10, 2021.^[32]The State Department spokesperson Ned Price stated that the US delegation focused on security and terrorism concerns and safe passage for US citizens, other foreign nationals and America’s Afghan partners, besides human rights, and the participation of women and girls in society. The US expressed a desire to provide humanitarian assistance directly to the Afghan people.

 

Author Brief Bio: Sandhya Jain is a political analyst, independent researcher, and author of multiple books. She is also editor of the platform Vijayvaani

References

^[1]https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/15/remarks-by-president-biden-prime-minister-morrison-of-australia-and-prime-minister-johnson-of-the-united-kingdom-announcing-the-creation-of-aukus/

^[2] AFP, Australian nuclear submarines will be banned from New Zealand waters, Sep 16, 2021.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234494.shtml

^[3] RFA, Philippines Throws Support Behind AUKUS Pact, 19 September 2021.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/pact-09212021152655.html

^[4] OPEN magazine, The Middle Path, Ram Madhav  | 29 Sep, 2021.

https://openthemagazine.com/columns/the-middle-path/

^[5] Voltaire Network, The AUKUS preparing a nuclear war to sustain Taiwan, Thierry Meyssan, Sep 23, 2021.

https://www.voltairenet.org/article214159.html

^[6] India Narrative, US, UK equipping Australia with nuclear submarines as AUKUS alliance is born to counter China, Sep 16, 2021.

https://www.indianarrative.com/world-news/us-uk-equipping-australia-with-nuclear-submarines-as-aukus-alliance-is-born-to-counter-china-115096.html

^[7] BBC, Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou freed by Canada arrives home in China, Sep 25, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58690974

^[8] Reuters, China applies to join Pacific trade pact to boost economic clout, Sep 17, 2021.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-officially-applies-join-cptpp-trade-pact-2021-09-16/

^[9] CNN, Biden holds first call with French President Macron since diplomatic crisis erupted, Sep 22, 2021.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/22/politics/macron-biden-call/index.html

^[10] India Today, PM Modi, French President Macron discuss bilateral collaboration in Indo-Pacific region, Afghanistan situation. Sep 21, 2021.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pm-modi-french-president-macron-indo-pacific-cooperation-afghanistan-situation-1855403-2021-09-21

^[11] NDTV, Quad To Remain Unaffected By Australia-UK-US Alliance: Foreign Secretary Sep 21, 2021.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/aukus-to-have-no-effect-on-quad-functioning-malabar-exercise-not-linked-quad-says-india-2548722

^[12] Economic Times, The ‘Quad’ meets in the White House as China looks warily on, Sep 27, 2021.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/the-quad-meets-in-the-white-house-as-china-looks-warily-on/articleshow/86490903.cms?from=mdr

^[13] India Today, India’s decision to resume export of Covid-19 vaccines, Sep 25, 2021.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/quad-leaders-welcome-india-decision-to-resume-export-of-covid-vaccines-1857051-2021-09-25

^[14] Joint Statement from Quad Leaders, Sep 24, 2021.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/24/joint-statement-from-quad-leaders/

^[15] PIB, Prime Minister virtually participates in 21st Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Sep 17, 2021. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1755831

^[16] The Hindustan Times, Global community must ensure Afghan soil is not used for terrorism: Modi at SCO-CSTO meet, Sep 17, 2021.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/global-community-must-ensure-afghan-soil-is-not-used-for-terrorism-modi-at-sco-csto-meet-101631889445538.html

^[17] RepublicWorld, Iran’s President Raisi Calls For Enhancing Economic Ties With SCO Members In Tajikistan, Sep 17, 2021. https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/middle-east/irans-president-raisi-calls-for-enhancing-economic-ties-with-sco-members-in-tajikistan.html

^[18] BBC, Afghanistan: Taliban leaders in bust-up at presidential palace, sources say, Sep 15, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58560923

^[19] BBC, IMF suspends Afghanistan’s access to funds, August 19, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58263525#:~:text=The%20International%20Monetary%20Fund%20(IMF,of%20the%20country%20last%20weekend.

^[20] The Hindu, Pakistan can’t accept more Afghan refugees, says NSA, Sep 16, 2021.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-cant-accept-more-afghan-refugees-says-nsa/article36488367.ece

^[21] LiveMint, China is our most important partner, say Taliban, Sep 3, 2021.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/china-is-our-most-important-partner-say-taliban-11630662700353.html

^[22] BBC, Afghanistan crisis: Taliban kill civilians in resistance stronghold, Sep 13, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58545892

^[23] The Guardian, Heavy casualties’ as explosion hits Shia mosque in Afghanistan, October 15, 2021.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/15/casualties-explosion-hits-shia-mosque-afghanistan

^[24] BBC Urdu, Violence surges in Pakistan’s tribal belt as Taliban, IS-K go on attack, October 14, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58891613

^[25] Scroll.in, ISIS-K: The group behind the Kabul airport attack sees the Afghan Taliban as a strategic rival, Aug 27, 2021.

https://scroll.in/article/1003882/isis-k-the-group-behind-the-kabul-airport-attack-sees-the-afghan-taliban-as-its-strategic-rival

^[26] Newlines magazine, The Drone Unit that Helped the Taliban Win the War, Sep 15, 2021.

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-drone-unit-that-helped-the-taliban-win-the-war/

^[27] Tolonews, Mortar Hits Residence of Atta Noor, Ex-Balkh Governor, July 1, 2021.

https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-173229

^[28] Reuters, Uzbekistan says hundreds of Afghan soldiers flee over border with dozens of aircraft, August 16, 2021.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/uzbekistan-says-hundreds-afghan-soldiers-flee-over-border-with-dozens-aircraft-2021-08-16/

^[29] Outlook, SAARC Summit Stands Cancelled As Pakistan Insists On Taliban’s Participation, Sep 22, 2021.

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-saarc-foreign-ministers-meeting-scheduled-to-be-held-on-unga-sidelines-cancelled-sources/395354

^[30] Aljazeera, British PM’s envoy holds talks with Taliban in Afghanistan, Oct 5, 2021.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/5/british-pms-envoy-holds-talks-with-taliban-in-afghanistan

^[31] Indian Express, India accepts Russia’s invite for talks with Taliban next week: Oct 15, 2021.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-accepts-russias-invite-for-talks-with-taliban-next-week-7572359/

^[32] U.S. Delegation Meeting with Senior Taliban Representatives in Doha, Oct 10, 2021.

https://www.state.gov/u-s-delegation-meeting-with-senior-taliban-representatives-in-doha/

Introduction

With the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan the entire geo-strategic environment in greater South Asia has taken a turn for the worse. The Taliban’s ascent to power poses reconfiguration of the strategic dynamics in the region. Contrary to the general perception, it is not the Taliban that would be the net contributor to the security volatility in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Currently there are close to a dozen radical Islamic non-state outfits operating in Afghanistan. However, the most powerful and dreaded of them happen to be the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K). The radical intervention of the IS-K, in the region’s geopolitical affairs, can be deeply problematic.

This essay has four key objectives. First, it argues why failures in governance leads to that political entity becoming an attractive haven for non-state actors such as terrorist outfits. It does so by introducing the theory of state failure to explain this phenomenon. While staying on that theme, it suggests, how a collapsed state, such as Afghanistan under the Taliban, lacking recognition (both internal and external) has become the preferred destination for many non-state actors with ambitions of undermining regional stability.

Second, while staying on the topic of non-state actors it examines the ideological and strategic characters of the Islamic State in general and IS-K in particular. Third, it suggests why the Taliban and the IS-K having their origins in the same religion and a shared radical outlook find themselves in the opposite sides of the ring. Fourth, the essay maps out the future security challenges emanating from the IS-K beyond Afghanistan.

In the conclusion, this essay proposes, that given this all-encompassing threat, the states in the region will do well by shifting their focus from the traditional inter-state conflict dynamics and devote their energy and resource to tackling the growing menace of IS-K.

State Collapse

Afghanistan, prior to the Taliban takeover on 15 August 2021, was a failed state. However, given the manner of their ascent to power, the country’s subsequent isolation from the international community precipitated the state failure leading to a state collapse.

According to realist international relations theory, viable states are characterised by high degrees of socio-political cohesion. They also possess the ability to respond to the citizens’ everyday needs on a continual basis. These attributes allow them to withstand all manners of security challenges. A weak, failing and collapsed state, by contrast, is one that not only lacks internal socio-political cohesion but are incapable of addressing the multi-dimensional security needs of its citizenry. These weak, failing or collapsed states, as Barry Buzan puts it, exist in a “condition of effective civil war which mirrors all the worst and none of the best features of viable states (Buzan, 1991: 100-101).

Weak, failing or a collapsed states are plagued by several security deficiencies. They face fundamental existential challenges emanating from ethnic, tribal, cultural, religious contestations leading to social fragmentation along those lines. Such internal divisive dynamics severely undermine the effective functioning of the state and in turn create security and strategic nightmares for that country and those adjacent to it.

States are the fundamental units of the international system and are responsible for maintaining both order and justice within their defined borders and behave as responsible members of the global community (Misra, 2004: 11). A collapsed state, by contrast is one which not only lacks legitimacy within but is also shunned by the international community. Lacking respectability at home and abroad, it soon fails to live up to its fundamental role of addressing the question of internal order and international personality.

Compared to a ‘viable state’ a ‘collapsed state’ is often at a disadvantage when it comes to defending itself from corrupt and destabilising forces or ideas (Misra, 2004: 9). Stripped bare of resources to maintain the process of governance and existing on the margins of international society as pariahs, owing to the lack of legal recognition, collapsed states are vulnerable to invidious external influences and intervention by non-state actors. Owing to this existential vacuum for the regime, many competing and contending non-state actors flock to the borders of this collapsed state to act out their own religious and political vision.

Collapsed states are a calamitous challenge for their citizenry and neighbours. Without a legally recognised government, the citizens in a collapsed state are more likely to come under the influence of radical non-state actors and their spurious ideologies. Since the authority of the central government is contested, many anti-state actors can take advantage of the prevailing chaos and enlist supporters to undermine the authority of the regime and freely export their own spurious ideologies.

For Robert I. Rotberg, an early proponent of the theory of state collapse, a collapsed state is characterised by “tense, deeply conflicted, dangerous, and contested bitterly by warring factions. In most failed states, government troops battle armed revolts led by one or more rivals. Occasionally, the official authorities in a failed state face two or more insurgencies, varieties of civil unrest, different degrees of communal discontent, and a plethora of dissent directed at the state and at groups within the state (Rotberg, 2003: 5). The prevalent atmosphere in Afghanistan under the Taliban easily fits the definition of a collapsed state as spelt out by Rotberg’s study.

The Taliban are painfully conscious of the fact that they have inherited a dysfunctional economy, a fearful citizenry, a civil society in flight, a near-total absence of foreign reserves, a hostile international system, and ambiguous external supporters and partners. To make matters worse, Afghanistan, under the previous government, was dependent on external aid to cover 75 percent of its budget. The Afghan economy is already in a free fall with a tumbling national currency and a deep financial crisis. Under the circumstances, Afghanistan fast slid into a state collapse whereby the regime failed to address both the human security as well as material security needs of its citizenry.

A violent cartographic vision

The elephant in the room, of course, is IS-K. Before we consign Afghanistan and the region to its vortex of violence, it would be worth asking what the nature and character of this outfit is. What does it stand for? What makes it different from another terror organisation such as the Taliban?

IS-K was set up in January 2015 at the height of IS’s power in Iraq and Syria, before its self-declared caliphate was defeated and dismantled by a US-led coalition (Gardner, 2021). In IS geopolitics, the physical space of occupied Syria and Iraq is the heartland of the end of the world of Islam. Its eastward flank constitutes the Islamic State of Khorasan / IS-K (Giustozzi, 2018). The Islamic State announced its expansion to the Khorasan region in 2015, which historically encompasses parts of modern-day Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The eastern territorial flanks dominated by the Muslims came to be known as the Khorasan province that necessitated taking over by IS faithful and soldiers. With that objective in mind, the IS had announced its expansion into the Khorasan region way back in 2015. Historically, the region encompassed parts of modern-day Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While the original Islamic State (IS) was decimated through the armed campaigns by the U.S. and a host of international actors in 2019, it managed to permeate its cartographic and strategic vision among those who subscribed to its ideology long before its demise. According to the geopolitical vision prior to its decimation, the landmass of Iraq and Syria constituted the heartland of Islam (Misra, 2015). Once displaced, plenty of ISIL fighters escaped to the chaotic landscape of Pakistan and Afghanistan, the eastern arm of their prophetic land. Once in this terrain, they have been responsible for internecine turf war with other established militant groups in the region – including the Taliban – and have unleashed their terror on both non-combatant and military targets. While the coalition forces have come under their attack in over hundreds of occasions, it is the civilian populace that have borne the brunt of their violence. IS-K has been responsible for killing innocent civilians, nurses, doctors, pregnant women and children.

In the latest of its attacks, it killed nearly two hundred people near Kabul airport which included 13 U.S. servicemen. Ever since, they have been on a killing spree across Afghanistan – mostly targeting minority Shia community members and other Taliban interests. Ousted from Syria and Iraq, the IS is in desperate search for a homeland. The crises in Afghanistan with a Muslim populace suits its core objective of using it as its base. Since the IS-K has to establish a safe haven for itself in areas of Afghanistan that the Taliban have been controlling for some time, and the Taliban have not agreed to share space with this emerging competitor, there have been these sporadic clashes between the two (Guistozzi, 2001).

The core differences

According to some analysts, the global Islamic State movement is also now depicting Afghanistan as the epicentre of its ideological struggle. The group’s main propaganda organs have trumpeted the successes of its Afghan affiliate, describing the anti-Taliban campaign in an official statement as a “new stage in the blessed jihad” (George,Warrick & DeYoung, 2021). It is worth mentioning, that the Taliban have fought with the IS(K) since its emergence in 2015. During the U.S. and NATO mission in Afghanistan both the groups fought against the external forces as well as against each other. IS-K and the Taliban have been locked in bloody battles with one another for some time.

In recent months, the Taliban has intercepted and killed several IS assassins across Afghanistan. But why this armed encounter between two radical Islamic militant outfits? One is, of course, perturbed by the fact that if both were fighting against the external occupation of Afghanistan, why were they not partners? Why do IS-K and the Taliban clash as militant organisations? To answer these questions, we need to examine the core ideological and political difference that exists between the two. As Frank Gardner, BBC’s long-term security correspondent argues, IS-K have major differences with the Taliban, accusing them of abandoning Jihad and the battlefield in favour of a negotiated peace settlement hammered out in “posh hotels” in Doha, Qatar. Similarly, IS-K considers Taliban militants “apostates,” making their killing lawful under their interpretation of Islamic law (Gardner, 2021).

In terms of its ideological and strategic rivalry, the IS-K hates the Taliban as much as the West (The Economist, 2021). According to a Deutsche Welle analysis, “an ideological gulf separates the two militant groups. While the IS belongs to the Salafist movement of Islam; the Taliban adhere to the Deobandi school (DW, 2021).

This is substantiated by several critics. According to a contemporary observer of IS, Afzal Ashraf.

While the Taliban seems content — at least for now — with an emirate for themselves within Afghanistan, the Islamic State group in Afghanistan and Pakistan strives to establish a caliphate throughout South and Central Asia and has also embraced the Islamic State’s call for a worldwide jihad against non-Muslims (Ashraf, DW, 2021).

With that objective in view, it has established parallel government structures and cells across Afghanistan. This strategy was revealed upon the Taliban’s killing of IS(K)’s shadow governor in the Nangarhar province in mid-October 2021. One might ask what objection the IS(K) should have when there is a fellow Islamic regime is in power in Afghanistan? IS-K views the Afghan Taliban both as its strategic rival in a saturated militant landscape, and as an ideological opponent (Jadoon, Mines & Sayed, 2021). Furthermore, IS-K smears the Taliban’s efforts to form an emirate based on national boundaries, which is directly opposed to the Islamic State’s vision of a global caliphate (Jadoon, Mines & Sayed, 2021).

Apart from the larger geopolitical objective of creating a larger Islamic umma across the Muslim world in the Middle East and South and Central Asia, IS also has its specific take on a rule-based Islamic legal governance. Its gripe with the Taliban stems from the fact that the latter is not interpreting and following an orthodox Sharia law. “For IS-K, the Taliban’s views are not strict enough. IS fighters have called the Taliban apostates and bad Muslims because of their willingness to negotiate a peace deal with the United States. By doing so, they betrayed the goals of the jihad, IS fighters said (DW, 2021).”

According to its original ideological precept, to rid the Islamic world of adversaries who do not follow “true” Islamic principles necessitates an epic military engagement. But to engage its foes in this grand war, IS needs to take the combat to them. It knows that attacking its foes on their own turf will force them to join its cause (Misra, 2015). This might explain the IS-K’s terror engagement with another terror outfit such as the Taliban. Furthermore, IS-K’s activism in the region is linked to the question of its very survival. After having been routed in Iraq and Syria, the group is in desperate need to find a host geography from where to operate. As Graeme Wood in his engaging essay on the Islamic State has very eloquently put it: “Caliphates cannot exist as underground movements, because territorial authority is a requirement: take away its command of territory, and all those oaths of allegiance are no longer binding” (Wood, 2015).

Given Af-Pak regions porous ethno-geographical borders and a relatively receptive audience, the group rightly believes the region offers the best striking chance to regroup, return to its activism and establish a new homeland for its ideology and governance. The IS-K’s moves in this regard is a strategic shift borne out of pure necessity. It rightly feels the Taliban and the Pakistani state cannot compete with it, either in terms of its specific brand of violence or building an oppositional consensus based on a specific borderless Islamic worldview. That being the objective, it is likely to up the ante.

In terms of strategic parity, there is a lot of difference between the Taliban and the IS-K. While the Taliban is in possession of a state, the IS-K remains stateless. Similarly, while the Taliban is playing to assume the identity of a legitimate government, the IS-K will forever remain a terrorist front. Added to that is the issue of military equivalence between the two.  “The Islamic State has far fewer fighters in Afghanistan than the Taliban — roughly 2,000 according to the latest United Nations estimate, compared to Taliban ranks estimated at more than 70,000 — but many fear it could grow if the Taliban fractures or if disaffected Taliban members seeking a return to the battlefield peel off to join other groups” (George,Warrick & DeYoung, 2021).

This inherent strategic imbalance, however, is unlikely to deter IS-K from undertaking larger and bolder terror objectives.  The group and its sleeper cells are also emboldened by the fact that they represent a strand within Afghanistan-Pakistan region who are receptive to a radical Islamic politics but do not necessarily identify with the Taliban’s core ideology.

Terrorists against a terrorist regime

The linkage between state collapse and terrorism is conclusively established by several different academic and policy studies (Zartman, 1995; Rotberg, 2003; Misra, 2004; Fukuyama, 2006). In fact, one of the key indicators of state collapse is the growth of criminal violence in the country under review (Rotberg, 2003: 5).

Afghanistan under the Taliban is experiencing prolonged encounters with non-state terrorists, growing threat of radicalisation, violent sectarianism and cross-border terrorist infiltration. Paradoxical as it may seem, there are nearly half-a-dozen non-state terrorist outfits operating in the country whose key intention is to undermine the authority of the ruling regime and undermine the stability in the region. Prominent of these outfits with the most likely lethal power is the Islamic State of Khorasan (henceforth IS-K). The group has claimed responsibility for a spate of attacks on the Taliban interests and Afghan civilians killing hundreds in the process.

After orchestrating a swift control of Afghanistan in mid-August 2021, the Taliban were quick to declare their victory over their U.S. and NATO detractors. What they did not count on was the dissent and opposition within. “After taking over Afghanistan last month, the Taliban claimed that security “has been assured” and that the county was taken out of the “quagmire of war”. But a series of attacks carried out by an affiliate of the ISIL/ ISIS, the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K) group in recent weeks has shattered the claims of security (Haris & Latifi, 2021).

The Islamic State “has positioned Afghanistan as a foremost priority — both in terms of media and military activity — since the withdrawal of the U.S. and the Taliban’s subsequent takeover” (George,Warrick & DeYoung, 2021). Sworn rivals of the Taliban, the IS-K pose the biggest threat to Afghanistan and regional peace.

In Afghanistan, the IS-K has emerged as “the most significant threat to the Taliban’s dominion as well as to public safety. So far, the Taliban has failed to contain the terrorists, who have staged numerous attacks (Raghavan, 2021).” Although the Taliban have expressed in the past their commitment to an Afghanistan where the country’s territory cannot be used by other non-state actors for their own ideological cause (Misra, 2021), given their tenuous hold over the country they are unlikely to be in a position to thwart the IS-K threat. The entire IS-K initiative is of extreme concern to the ruling regime in Kabul. Whether the new regime is going to be primarily Pashtun-led, a government of national unity, an inclusive political formation or an extremely conservative one, irrespective of the nature and character this new government, the challenges it is likely to face from the IS-K can be debilitating.

Should the IS-K cells and operatives decide to rupture the Taliban’s authority, the latter cannot maintain its sovereignty effectively. There are two reasons why the new regime will find it hard to address the challenges coming from these operatives. First, the members belonging to this outfit in the country are not necessarily Arabs – to whom IS ideology is originally attributed to. Most of IS-K members are indigenous Afghans who may be outwardly sympathetic to the Taliban but could be maintaining a hard-line position in private. They are not necessarily bought over by the current regimes ideological disposition and outlook on governance.

IS-K has the capacity to easily blend into the mainstream and attack the interests of the Afghan state with relative ease. It is this inability to distinguish and differentiate them from the rest which would prove extremely challenging to the regime – should it decide to weed them out at some point. If it does try to confront IS-K in the home territory, then, the regime stands being exposed to violent surprise attacks in every possible context and scenario. Pursuing a live and let live policy is not going to be of any help to the Taliban either. Turning a blind eye to their militancy stands capsizing the very effectiveness of the Taliban’s core ideology, governance and ultimately regime survival.

If events on the ground are anything to go by, it amply proves that Afghanistan will remain the playground of various radical Islamic outfits. That its future is going to be mired by bouts of sectarian violence is proved by the indiscriminate suicide bomb attacks by IS-K and perhaps many other radical outfits. These gory events demonstrate the fact that the regime is incapable of addressing these threats. Present day Afghanistan is a country rife with suicide bombings and empty of liveable opportunities. With al Qaeda sleeper cells operating throughout the country, the IS-K intermittent bombings, and the neighbouring Uighur radical Islamic incursion, in all likelihood Afghanistan will slide back into a terrorist safe haven fairly soon.

Proliferation of IS-K radicalism

The Af-Pak areas have been plagued by the perennial problem of lack of credible government presence. The area has lacked enough government both visible and invisible to enforce law. As the state has remained weak in the periphery and at times non-existent, it has remained in the grip of non-state violence.

IS-K is “a complex and fluid amalgam of extremist ideologies and actors. Its reach is spilling over from its traditional stronghold in Nangarhar and risks inflaming sectarian fissures as far afield as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, China, and India” (Muggah & Rohozinski, 2021). What is, at the moment, a small but highly active offensive against the Taliban-led government, the IS-K dynamics of insurgent violence is likely to spread to the rest of Afghanistan and the region. Unlike the Taliban, which has its focus on Afghanistan, IS-K exhibits regional and millenarian ambitions such as uniting Muslims across South Asia, Central Asia and beyond (Muggah & Rohozinski, 2021). Given that Pakistan is imploding with the rise of several hard-line radical religio-political movements, it is a matter of time before the IS-K finds a favourable condition to spread its mayhem into the neighbouring areas.

The gravity of IS-K threat is well appreciated in the upper echelons of military circles in Pakistan. Despite Pakistan having a history of hobnobbing with various terrorist outfits, for the better part of its career as a newly independent country, there is reckoning among the military as well as political leadership in the country, that they can ill afford the rise of a violent militant outfit such as IS-K which seeks to undermine the very basis of nation-state. In its bid to stem the rising tide of IS-K, the government in Islamabad has undertaken several concrete steps. Principal among these is relaying “raw information as well as helping the Taliban to monitor phone and Internet communication to identify IS-K members and operational hubs” (George,Warrick & DeYoung, 2021).

Although neither a failing state like its immediate neighbour Pakistan, or a collapsed state like Afghanistan under the Taliban, India is nonetheless a vulnerable state when it comes to countering the influence and expansionism of IS-K.  India’s challenging internal religious make up and territorial insurgencies would prove a fertile ground for IS-K’s permeation. An ongoing Islamic insurgency in the restive union territory of Jammu and Kashmir can facilitate establishment of alliances between indigenous and external militants. New Delhi is intimately conscious of the likely impact of a violent IS-K uprising in Afghanistan. Already, security and intelligence agencies in India are bracing for armed attacks by the group in India’s troubled territory of Jammu and Kashmir (Sharma, 2021).

Added to that are the fears of IS-K inspired radicalisation in various pockets throughout India with known history of Islamic insurgency. Indian recruits have featured prominently in several recent IS terror undertakings. In the year 2020, while claiming responsibility for the Nangarhar jailbreak in eastern Afghanistan, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)’s propaganda wing released photographs of 11 attackers, including three Indian recruits from the south-eastern province of Kerala (Basit & Sinan Siyech, 2020). This attack came in the back of 25 March 2020 attack on a Sikh Gurudwara in Kabul by the IS-K which killed some 25 innocent civilians. According to the IS press release, following the incidence, one of four-member team that was behind this attack was an Indian (Dixit, 2020). Mohammed Mushin aka Abu Khalid al-Hindi who was a member of this team came from Kerala’s Kasargod district who had earlier joined the Islamic State.

That the IS and its eastern wing IS-K, is serious about promoting large-scale religious violence in India is proven by the fact that since February 2020, it is bringing out a monthly propaganda magazine called Voice of Hind, with exclusive coverage of events in India. Despite this outreach, critics have repeatedly argued that IS finding a sympathetic audience in India will be marginal. According to this view, “at its peak, IS successfully recruited over 40,000 supporters and sympathisers using the internet and social media platforms from 120 countries around the world. Yet Indians did not amount to more than 200 according to the most liberal figures (Basit & Sinan Siyech, 2020).

True, while IS recruiting drive among Indian Muslims may have been a lacklustre affair in the past, it is unlikely to remain so in the future. Indian radical Islamist’s participation in any future IS-K undertaking is likely to grow and consolidate. This is due to three key factors. First, the previous IS Caliphate undertaking was geographically in a faraway part of the world. This had limited resonance on the Indian sympathisers to the cause. A full-blown IS-K insurgency in Af-Pak region would prompt a sizeable number of participants from India to engage in its ideological and militant cause.

Second, as Raffaello Pantucci, Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) puts it, “India was the birthplace of the Deobandi movement, a sect that was a source of ideas for the Taliban, and the conflict in Kashmir has for years been a rallying cry for extremist groups” (Pantucci, 2020). Third, worryingly, Islamic State-Khorasan’s modest territorial footprint in Afghanistan and Pakistan is bolstered by a widening digital presence across Central and South Asia (Muggah, and Rohozinski, 2021). Simply put, despite having a robust governing structure, India is likely to fall prey to the IS-K terror cells owing to the above two reasons. Given various degrees of dissent among some Indian Muslims towards the state, the IS-K would reach out to this constituency, not only to stay relevant among a melee of various terror outfits operating in the region but also to rebuild its ranks.

Conclusion

The US and NATO troop withdrawal from the country has provided a “god-sent” opportunity to a whole host of violent jihadi groups whose primary objective is to ferment chaos and perpetuate anarchy. The battle between rival powers to gain strategic depth in the chaotic Afghanistan-Pakistan region is not a turf war between various state and non-state actors as many observers and analysts would like to point. It is a battle for the very political survival of many actors who have a stake in the larger geopolitical future in the region.

While the Taliban will be busy maintaining its control over the restive population of Afghanistan, there will be one or more key non-Taliban radical forces who would seek to undermine the security in the Af-Pak region and the greater South Asia. For the key actors in the region each will be driven by their own realpolitik concerns. Their respective conduct will be based more on practical rather than principled, moral, or even ideological considerations. Contrary to general strategic scripts, the Taliban has as much an interest in undermining the IS-K as other polities such as Pakistan and India. For the Taliban, reigning in the IS-K will be the very basis to its own political survival in the deeply divided fractious politics of Afghanistan.

It is bad news for everyone. The hardliner, the liberal the secular and the autocratic states are all going to face the heat when it comes to the rise and expansion of the IS-K. As for the regional actors, perhaps it is too early to send out torches and pitch forks to deal with the growing menace of IS-K. But it does not hurt to be prudent and follow a pragmatic policy of greater vigilance to address the likely security threat of this groups sympathisers and affiliates across the greater South Asian region.

Author Brief Bio : Prof Amalendu Misra, PhD, is a Professor of International Politics, Department of Politics, Philosophy & Religion at Lancaster University, United Kingdom. 

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