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Vedic Averments for Cosmic Environmental Tranquility

Nature’s wrath is currently wreaking havoc on the entire planet. This situation is not only proving to be detrimental for the human race, but it is also causing severe harm to other sentient species. This undesirable state of affairs is largely caused by human beings, who have broken the cosmic laws and caused environmental degradation to an unprecedented level. All human efforts to preserve Nature in the name of planting trees, restraining the use of plastic and opting for eco-friendly products have had little impact on the health of the planet. The need of the hour, therefore, is total change, wholesome approach, holistic view, and organismic well-being.

The Vedas are the world’s oldest texts. They focus on a natural code of conduct and an all-encompassing cosmic law that encompasses every spec of the universe, from a tiny ant to the massive galaxies. In contrast to Western and Abrahamic thought, where the environment is viewed as isolated and human-centric, the Vedic perspective on environment is devoid of any splits. Each life is wholesome and is a vital part of the ‘One Whole Reality.’ This thought makes Bhārata as not only an environmentally protective but also an environmentally conscious nation that propagates ‘Unity in Diversity’. In this regard the Bhagvadgītā states,

I equivalently indwell in all creatures. I have no likes or aversions towards any life form.[i]

Further, the Īśopaniṣad asserts:

The entirety of cosmos is pervaded by Īśvara who is the ‘Self’ of all movable and immovable entities.[ii]

It is therefore clear that the entire cosmos is a manifestation of the non-dual ‘Ultimate.’ The Vedas propound that the Divine not only envelops the entire cosmos, but also indwells all entities and manifests Himself as the dog, the sparrow, the Ganges, and the entire material and immaterial world. The following verses shed light on the same,

I am One and I become many [iii]

That Ultimate Truth is ‘One’ known by the wise as many [iv]

As white light passes through a prism and splits into seven colours, the Divine, who is non-dual, appears as assorted names and forms as a result of Māyā.[v] Therefore, according to the Vedas, ‘Environment’ should be understood with the connotation of ‘Brahman’[vi]. Thus, there exists unity among all entities that are born and nourished in the compassionate lap of ‘Mother Nature’.

The term “Environment/Nature” must not be limited to trees, animals, birds, rivers and mountains, rather “It” is internal, external, individual, cosmic, exclusive and non-exclusive. It is to be recognised that it is human’s inner contamination, unrest, and mental greed that manifests as external pollutions, and disharmony. ‘Mother Nature,’ nurtures every being till we respect Her. However, if we try to exploit Her, She responds internally as metal stress, physically as diseases, environmentally as natural calamities, and universally as cumulative disharmony. Outer acts of environmental protection can aid us in our mission to support the cosmos, but they are far from being a permanent cure for cosmic discord. In this regard, Svāmī Vivekānanda aptly states,

“The miseries of the world cannot be cured by physical help alone. Unless a man’s nature changes, physical needs will continue to arise and miseries will continue to be felt. No amount of physical help will cure these miseries. Ignorance is the mother of all evils and of the misery that we see. Let man have light, let them be pure, spiritually strong and educated; then alone misery will cease. We may convert every house of the country into a charitable asylum and fill the land with hospitals but the misery will continue to exist until man’s character changes”[vii]

It is essential to recognise that each life and form has a crucial role to play in the grand scheme of the universe. Realisation of non-duality with all lives leads to harmony in the truest sense declares the Yajurveda,

He who sees the Self in all and all in the Self has no sense of revulsion by the reason of the vision of non-duality. When all beings have been realized as the ‘Self’ there remains no delusion and no sadness.[viii]

The Vedas regard ‘Nature’ as all-encompassing and holds an intimate relationship with It. They refer to ‘It’ as not only the ‘Highest Reality,’ but also revere Its various manifestations (sun, moon, rivers, birds, etc.) as mother, father, protector, friend, son, and more. ‘Environment’ is that ‘Unitary Principle’ which the Vedas have spoken about repeatedly. All beings of the universe are indwelled, saturated and are that very ‘Principle’ which they mistakenly consider as distinct. This non-dual Vedic vision elevates ‘Mother Nature’ to the highest plinth. As a result, the Vedas instruct us to work for the good of all beings instead of being limited to only the human race. Let us now consider some Vedic averments about Environmental harmony.

The Divine Pan͂camāhābhūtas

‘Bhūmi’ is depicted by the Vedas as a compassionate, benevolent, nurturing, and bountiful ‘Mother’ who nurtures all creatures without discrimination. She is revered, and hymns of Her majesty adorn the entire body of the Vedas.  She is the one who bestows cosmic peace and prosperity. Her grandeur can be understood by the following verses,

The ‘Earth’ just like the Mother Cow, confers upon all the creatures the gifts of delight. She nurtures and provides for all.[ix] May Goddess Earth, the nourisher of all beings eradicates all evils and lead us to the highest state of being.[x]

‘Āpaḥ’ is regarded by the Vedas as ‘Divine’ ‘Life’, ‘Nectar’ and as the finest of ‘Physicians’. It is no wonder that all important pilgrimages were set up near water bodies. The Vedas declare water as the best of medicines.[xi] In Its absence no medicine can work and it is the greatest of healers.[xii] It can cure all maladies including genetic and cardiovascular disorders. In this regard the Vedas state:

May the ‘Divine Waters’ protect us and flow down on us for quenching our thirst and lead us to peace and perfection. You are You are the Mighty One.[xiii] We seek your healing powers.[xiv]

Unfortunately, man has exploited water bodies in the most heinous manner. Water pollution causes a variety of problems, including the degradation of aquatic ecosystems caused by excessive use of chemicals and pathogens, plastic debris, sewage pesticides, industrial leaks, and hydraulic fracturing, to name a few. Water pollution has damaged the health and beauty of the water bodies, the well-being of aquatic species and the overall health of the planet. It has also negatively impacted the quality of plants, trees, and crops. It is to be remembered that in the wellness of life-enriching waters bodies lies the wellness of the entire cosmos.

‘Vāyu’ is the life force, and the cosmic breath. The Vedas contain a number of hymns that extol ‘It.’ The meaning of the word ‘Vāyu’ as the ‘Uniting Ultimate Principle’ has been expounded in the Śatapathabrāhmaṇa,

The entire universe is woven in a string and that string is ‘Vāyu’.[xv]

Therefore, the word ‘Vāyu’ has a broader meaning and is only casually translated as ‘Air’ which has a much-limited connotation. ‘Vāyu’ is itself living and thus ‘It’ becomes the essence of life. Unfortunately, the human race has done incalculable harm to ‘It’ while shrouded in ignorance. Polluted air not only endangers humans, but it also harms animals, birds, and puts undue strain on trees and plants. Every year, thousands of humans, animals, and birds die prematurely as a result of air pollution.[xvi]

‘Ākāśa’ and sound are inextricably linked, and this is the source of noise pollution. Taittiryopaniṣad (Yajurveda) discusses two types of Ākāśa i.e., one within the body and one outside of it.[xvii] However, human has not only polluted his inner space but is going on polluting the outer spaces. All of this has not only added to the planet’s pollution but in his desire to conquer outer space, he has added to space debris.  The Yajurveda advises the human race:

Do not destroy the space [xviii]

‘Agni’ is both divine and purifying. ‘It’ is the destroyer of greed, passion, and ignorance on a philosophical level. At a mundane level, it is the destroyer of negativities and diseases. In a spiritual sense, It burns away selfish desires and leads to a state where cosmic welfare becomes one’s vision and mission. According to the Yajurveda’s Navagṛhasūktam:

The light of wisdom Agni! Let us be vigilant while we work for ourselves and for all creatures of the cosmos. May we all remain together, even with the departed souls of our forefathers with whom you connect us like a thread.[xix]

Therefore, it is clear that Fire is meant for the benefit of all. Unfortunately, humans manipulate it in the most atrocious manner. Fire is used to burn down forests and various animals that live in them in order to capture land for the sake of high-end infrastructure. It is used to incite riots and destroy national property, as well as to burn a young girl for dowry. All of these crimes sprout from tainted internal states, and as long as we do not burn the dirt that we hold within, we will go on destroying the world.

The Celestial Plant Kingdom and Forests

The Vedic verses revere forests, trees, plants and herbs as conscious divine beings that provide Amṛta (oxygen), Ouśadhi (herbs), Anna (food), Phala (fruits), Puṣpa (flowers), Cāyā (shade), Saundarya (beauty) and Jīvan (life). Tree are encrusted with divinity and so, the five parts that they have – Jada (roots), Prakāṇda (trunk), Śākhā (branches), Patra (leaves), Phala (fruits) and Puṣpa (flowers) are a boon to the universe. They are called Viśadūśaṇī’[xx] because they are the destroyers of poison (pollution). Therefore, uprooting a tree means uprooting the entire cosmos, and cutting down a tree means cutting down one’s own survival. In this regard the Vedas make it clear,

Extend no violence towards Trees.[xxi] Do not cut or uproot them for they are the destroyers of pollution [xxii] Forests, trees, herbs and mountains are said to be the protectors of all.[xxiii]

The Ṛigveda further highlights,

‘The Divine trees and curative herbs appeared three Yugas before the emergence of Deities and billions of years before the origin of any other being. The ‘Divine’ manifested as trees, herbs and plants at various places on the earth. These Godly appearances were meant to destroy pain, suffering, ailments and heal wounds of all living creatures. They further remove infections and weakness. They have a positive and wholesome effect and lead to complete wellness. Trees and herbs nurture, protect and bless all lives with material and spiritual advancement like a mother and thus they are also referred to as ‘Mātraḥ’. The Holy Trees and plants lead us to Mokṣa by destroying diseases, misery and take us beyond the realm of birth and death. Trees and herbs have supreme powers and those creatures who submit to them are bestowed with lifelong wellness. Without any discrimination between man and animal, these saintly trees and herbs have equally blessed all beings.[xxiv]

The Vedas also declare that the plant kingdom is conscious and sensitive, like humans and animals. They are born, they die, they experience pain-pleasure, they sleep, they are susceptible to illness, and they bleed when they are broken, uprooted, or cut down.[xxv] The Mahābhārata in this regard states:

“Trees and plants drink water through their roots and make their food through sunlight. They digest the food due to the presence of Vāyu and Agni that is within them. When they are injured, they experience unimaginable pain. They are affected by pleasant and foul smells. They do fall sick and feel weakness and wellness. A creeper exactly knows how and where to climb, this proves that they have a divine vision (in Indian philosophy vision and sight are separate. A being may not have sight which is connected to material eyes but it has a vision which is connected to the inner states of being). Despite being physically strong, trees are extremely sensitive to weather, kind-harsh words, pure-impure thoughts, good-bad touch’.[xxvi]

‘Vana’ is home to millions of celestial beings. Forests add to the aesthetics of the planet. The Vedas, in fact, see the entire universe as a forest in which all beings must live according to their Dharma. However, today, man has turned a deaf ear to the Vedic voices. Deforestation has resulted in the destruction of biodiversity, decreased oxygen, extinction of plant and animal species, damaged ozone layer, global warming, natural disasters, and climate change.

Yajña, Maṇtras, Balī  and Animals

‘Yajña or Havan’ promotes environmental wellness, quality of life, atmospheric purity, inner and outer well-being. Scientifically, Yajña produces gases like ethyl oxide (C2H4O), propylene (C3H6), acetylene (C2H2), and others[xxvii] that combat pollution and balances O2 (oxygen) and CO2 (carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere. The Yajurveda discusses the removal of various pollutions; tranquility, prosperity, cosmic health; glories of trees, benefits of seasons and more through Yajña.[xxviii] Dr.Swami Satya Prakash Saraswati in his book ‘Aum Agnihotra-An Ancient Process of Fumigation (A Study From the Chemical Standpoint)’ states:

“in the materials of Agnihotra some elements produce the formaldehyde gas(CH2O) which spreads in the atmosphere without undergoing any change. Even carbon dioxide (CO2) transforms to a large extent into formaldehyde gas (CH2O) which is a strong germicide. This gas is activated only when it comes in contact with water vapours. This is the reason why the Havankuṇda is sprinkled with water from all four sides.” [xxix]

‘Maṇtra’ is a sacred and scientific collection of words, sounds, phonemes, and syllables. It is a codification of a certain cosmic force that links the material world and the Supreme Consciousness. Maṇtras are the primordial rhythms of creation[xxx] that bring about harmony within and without, on an individual as well as on the cosmic level, in the Pañcamāhābhūtas and for the sake of Sarvbhūtahita.

‘Balī’ is a widely misunderstood word. If one comprehends the Vedic wisdom, he will conclude that Vedic teachings and rituals are meant for cosmic concord. This vision of coherence stems from the recognition that we are all interrelated, necessitating the development of ethical norms of behaviour toward oneself and the entire creation.  Nevertheless, a few misinterpret the Vedic rituals and deem them to be such in which an animal is sacrificed in order to appease a Deity and earn rewards. In the Śābarabhāṣya inflicting of injury has been pronounced forbidden. It is said that ‘Śyena’ which may be interpreted as “a ceremony where the intention is to cause harm to others” is not propagated in the Vedas, rather, the text announce,

“If a man desires Śyena (inflicting injury upon another), one must do so entirely because he wishes and not because of any text”[xxxi]

The Practice of ‘Ahiṃsā’ is the foundation of Indian thought and appears in the Śatapathabrahman as ‘Non-injury’ with the connotation of morality. The Vedas repeatedly instruct that animals must not be harmed. However, man’s self-centred approach has driven him to purposefully misconstrue the Vedic voices. The Yajurveda declares:

“Animals are not to be killed or harmed .[xxxii] They are the bedrock of a prosperous society.[xxxiii] Animals should be protected and must live fearlessly.[xxxiv]

Today, a few deceitful scholars claim that the Vedas is in favour of animal sacrifice (paśu balī).’ However, this is a blatantly fallacious elucidation. Just as in the English language there are Homonyms[xxxv], i.e. the word ‘Round’ could mean circle, interview round, moving aimlessly or talking in a way that confuses someone. Similarly, the word ‘Balī’ has many meanings. Let’s have a look at the same:

  • ‘Balī’ is the technical terminology for ‘Wrinkles’ in the Rasaśāstra (Ayurveda).[xxxvi]
  • ‘Balī’ is one of the 108 names of Lord Kṛṣna.[xxxvii]
  • ‘Balī’ is the name of the Demon King ‘Mahābalī’ and means ‘The One With Great Power and Strength’.[xxxviii]
  • Balī’ refers to an austere or hermit.[xxxix]
  • ‘Balī’ connotes to ‘Balīdāna’ (self-sacrificing one’s comforts, alms, food or time for the sake of others).
  • ‘Balī’ is the name of the King of the Yādavas[xl]
  • ‘Balī’ is the name of the Vānararāja Ānav[xli] in the great epic Māhābhārata.
  • ‘Balī’ is the daily Dāna offered to sages, humans, dogs, cows, and crows.[xlii]
  • The term ‘Balī’ also suggests a compulsory tax or levy that is given to the King.[xliii]
  • ‘Balī’ refers to a Deity who protects the Pātālaloka.[xliv]
  • ‘Balī’ means a ceremonial food offering to Lord who protects all in accordance to the Śaivāgamas.[xlv]
  • ‘Balī’ is used in Vāstuśāstra for a diagram with eighty-one squares and a cluster of Deities that are drawn on the ground and where the structural construction has to take place.[xlvi]
  • ‘Balī’ in Jainism, refers to the name of the sixth Prativāsudeva.[xlvii]

Let us now also have a look at the various meanings of the word ‘Paśu’.

  • ‘Paśu’ is the individual soul (including human) in Śaiva Siddhānta while Patī is ‘Supreme Śiva’.[xlviii]
  • ‘Paśu’ refers to all embodied souls (humans included) in the cosmos in the Śhilpaśāstra.[xlix]
  • As per Vāyupurāṇa, Ṛṣi Kaśyapa is said to be the ancestor of Paśus (humans, animals and plants) along with Gaṇdharva, Devas and Asuras[l] suggesting that despite varied forms we all have the same roots.

From the foregoing, it becomes clear that the word ‘Paśu’ doesn’t refer to merely an animal nor does the word ‘Balī’ mean ‘killing’. Thus, Paśu Balī’  cannot be interpreted as ‘Animal Sacrifice’. This notion appears to be imposed on the Vedas which are far from promoting any ceremony involving violence or injury to any life. The misinterpretation of the word ‘Balī’ can be attributed to a variety of factors, such as:

  • A lack of grasp of the original texts and the approach required to interpret them (i.e. in accordance with Deśa-Kāla-Paristhiti.
  • Inadequate knowledge of San
  • Studying the Vedas with preconceived notions and biases.
  • Resolutely misinterpreting the Vedic to promote violence, disharmony and non-vegetarianism.
  • Deliberately undermining the Vedas as a text of authority in order to destroy Vedic culture, philosophy, and history in the long run.

Today, ‘Animals, Birds, and All Sentient Beings’ exist in fright. Rooted in ignorance, man has exploited them to the point of absurdity. He slaughters them savagely for their skin, organs, hanging them up as a piece of décor, or just devouring them as a meal. The pitiful condition of these celestial beings is a question mark on human morals, ethics, education and life. Contrary to this view, animals have been revered in the Vedas as ‘Ṣodaśkalāḥ (bejewelled with sixteen celestial arts)[li]  and as ‘Maḥ (worthy of worship for their love and grace).[lii] They have adorned Indian culture, art, architecture, philosophy, religion, traditions and life in general. The Vedic texts consider them to be the manifestation of God (Vibhūtis).[liii] In this regard states the Vibhūtiyogaḥ of the Śrīmad Bhagwadgīta,

Amongst the horses I am ‘Ucchaṣvā’ that emerged during the churning of the ocean. Amongst the elephants, know Me as ‘Airāvta’, Amongst the cows, I am ‘Kāmadhenu’. Amongst snakes, I am the ‘King Vāsuki’. Amongst the Nāgas, I am ‘Ananta’ and amongst water beings, I exist as ‘Varuṇadeva’. Amongst the animals, I am ‘Mṛga’, ‘Siṁha’ and amongst birds, I am ‘Gruḍa’. As a purifier of all lives, I am ‘Vāyu’. Amongst the beings of sea, I am ‘Magara’ and amongst sacred rivers, I am ‘The Gaṇgā.’[liv] I exist as the Ātman in the hearts of all living creatures and I am the beginning, middle and end of all these beings.[lv]

Each animal, bird and insect is associated with a Deity and embodies Its energies. Thus, revering that animal necessitates adoring that Deity. Bulls, dogs, snakes and scorpions are associated with Lord Śiva. Elephants are worshiped as ‘Gaṇeśa’. Lions are associated with ‘Ādi Śakti Durgā’. Crocodiles are connected to ‘Goddess Gaṇgā and Yamunā’. Further, in order to re-establish Dharma, ‘Mahāviṣṇu’ appears as a Maṭsya, Kūrma, Varāha, Nṛsiṃha and more. Even the smallest of insect is considered Divine. ‘Bhrāmarī’, a wasp who ended the demon Arunāsūra is associated with ‘Goddess Pārvatī’.[lvi]

Gaumātā holds an extraordinary place in Vedas. Her physical, religious, economic, environmental, social, cosmic, and spiritual vaue is extolled in the Vedas. She is revered as Goddess Lakṣmī[lvii]and must never be killed or harmed (Aghnayeyam).[lviii] Vedas annonce Her as a noble being endowed with splendour, divinity, purity, beauty, nonviolence, tranquillity, knowledge, compassion and the ability to nourish all beings.[lix] A society that invests in Her health and wellness flourishes by leaps and bounds.

‘Ṣvāna (dog)’ is declared as Godly in the Vedas. The Rudramsūkta of the Kṛṣna Yajurveda states,

I bow to Rudra, who controls the dogs, who is Himself the dog and who protects the dogs.[lx]

The Atharvaveda associates Rudra (A fearsome form of Lord Śiva) with Dogs.[lxi] The Goddess Dog ‘Saramā’ appears in the Ṛgveda.[lxii] The text also refers to Dogs as divine messengers and states,

Salutations to the two Divine broad-nosed messengers (Śyamā and Śabla)  who take away our souls. For the sake of leading humans to auspiciousness, you graced mankind by staying amongst them (as dogs).[lxiii]

Further, in Maṅdala five of the Ṛgveda, Dogs are described as the knower of ‘Herbs’ and ‘All Wise’ suggesting that they have high intuitive powers and high realms of existence.[lxiv] They are also referred to as ‘Vastoṣpati (the lord and protectors of the house)’.[lxv] Mahaṛṣi Pāṇini in the Aṣṭādhyāyī, refers to them as ‘Sārmeyaḥ’ (the one whose feet bring luck and prosperity). The great epic Mahābhārata starts and ends with the Divine Dog.[lxvi] Further, before the battle of Mahābhārata, Arjuna prays to a Dog faced form Goddess Durgā known as ‘Kokāmukha’ Lord Dattātreya who represents the unity of Brahamā-Viṣṇu-Maheśa accepted Dogs as His Guru and Ādi Śaṅkarācārya realized Dogs as the source of all wisdom ‘Vedas’.[lxvii]

The Vedas in-depth talk of Siṁha, Aṣva, Mayūra, Garuḍa, Sarpa, Maṭsya and other sentient beings. The Śatapathabrahman announces human as also animal.[lxviii] Birds and animals in the Vedas are described as self-healers and knowers of herbs.[lxix] They can sense natural disasters and death.[lxx] The Atharvaveda mentions the establishment of Gauśālā and Paṣuśālā for the protection of aged, injured, handicapped, and ill animals.[lxxi] For their well-being, the society must provide these sentient beings with adequate food, medicine, food and fresh water[lxxii]. The Vedas also announce that these beings live in communities and grieve the death or injury of their members.[lxxiii] The text further declares,

Animals must live without any fear[lxxiv]

Conclusion

The Vedas voice that there is comprehensive harmonisation among all aspects of existence. This Vedic principle of ‘Ṛta’ embodies the sublime, regulated and harmonious operation of the cosmos. The text talks about an intrinsic relationship of Self-sameness between an individual and the cosmos. Therefore, just as the human body is the dwelling of an individual being, the cosmos is the divine abode of the Supreme Being and so, if anyone purposes to settle conflicts of any sort (environmental, political, social and more) he/she must initiate with the immediate rather than the mediate, proximate rather than the remote and with the visible rather than the invisible. Further, it is to be lucidly understood that one is never in conflict with others instead the conflict is always with one’s own inner states. The seeds of discord, greed and animosity sprouts within us and manifests into external struggles and pollutions. Therefore, if we want global environmental peace, we must first be at peace with ourselves.

It is evident that the Vedas have a comprehensive outlook towards Cosmic Environmental Harmony. They are embellished with rites, verses, and philosophies that promote universal-welfare. The text recognises everything as being present in the Divine and the Divine being present in all entities. Along these lines, ‘Environment’ is just another name for that ‘Ultimate Reality’. The ‘Environment’ that man elects to harm exists as non-dual from him and so he damages his own survival when he hurts ‘Mother Nature’. This non-dualistic vision can develop only with an education that is scientific, forward looking and wholesome but at the same time it is rooted in ancient wisdom, spirituality and cosmic compassion.

The Vedas advocate an organic cosmology that is devoid of distinctions which makes it a universal and all-encompassing. It is crucial to recognise that these timeless scriptures are incredibly scientific and have influenced many modern breakthroughs, hypotheses, researches and studies. The Vedas are not at odds with science and technology for as long as it serves to promote overall well-being. Only when modern science wishes for human-centric development at the cost of ruthlessly destroying forests, water bodies and animals is when there is a prominent gap between Vedic thought and modern science. Only when the entire cosmos is taken into account with unified vision of wholesome welfare of beings will science be seen as all-encompassing and complete. At present science exists in a very limited space. It is for the humans, of the humans and by the humans. All its developments stand upon the graves of innumerable sentient beings and on the delicate body of ‘Mother Nature’.

As long as man exists in the realms of dualism, he will be the cause of pain, misery and destruction of the world. It is time that the human race contemplates upon the Vedic averments in order to realise tranquility within and in the entire cosmos.

Eko vaśī sarvabhūtāntarātmā ekam rūpam bahudhā yaḥ karoti

(That One alone indwells all beings and That One alone becomes manifold)

                                                                                               -Bṛhdāryaṇakopniṣad,V.2.3.2

 

Author Brief Bio: Dr. Vandana Sharma ‘Diya’ is a well-known Scholar of Advaita Vedānta Darśana. With a Bachelor’s and Master’s degree in Bhārtiya Darśan Śāstra (Indian Philosophy) from the Annamalai University, Tamil Nadu, she went on to study the Advaita Vedānta Darśana and Bhagwadgītā Śaṅkarabhāṣya at the Chinmaya Mission Foundation, Ernakulam, Kerala. Dr. Sharma further earned a Ph.D. in Advaita Vedānta from the same university. She has to her credit several research articles published in national and international journals.

[i]Shankaracarya,‘Shrimadbhagvadgitabhashya’, ManavPrabodhanPranyasa, Bikaner,Rajasthan,2016,pp.146-147(V.9.29).

[ii]Swami Gambhirananda(Tr),‘Eight Upanishads:Isa,Kena,Katha,Taittirya,Vol.1 with commentary of Shankaracharya’,Advaita Ashrama,Himalayas,1957,pp.4-6.(V.1,Ishopnishad)

[iii]Swami Nikhilananda,‘The Upnishad-Taittirya and Chandogya with Commentary of ShankarAcharyaa,Vol.4,(Chandogya Upanishad)’, Harper & Brothers Publisher,New York,1959,pp.294-295(V.6.2.3).

[iv]Griffith Ralph T.H,‘The Rigveda’,Védico Antiguo Einglés,Spain,1896,p.275(V.1.164.46).

[v]Maya-power through which the ‘One Infinite’ appears as ‘Diverse Finite’.

[vi]Brahman-the Ultimate Principle.

[vii]Swami Vivekananda,‘Complete Works of Swami Vivekananda’, Partha Sinha Digital Publication,2019, p.36.

[viii]Swami Gambhirananda,p.12-13,(V.6, Ishavasyaopnishad, Yajurveda)

[ix]Rigveda, Durvamrittikasuktam,V.5(10th Mandal);Also see Mahanarayanopnishad.

[x]Mahanarayanopnishad (V.10.1.9)

[xi]Rigveda,V.1.23.20.

[xii]Ibid, V.1.5.4.

[xiii]Ibid,Hiranyagarbhasuktam,V.121.7-121.8.

[xiv]Yajurveda,Taittiriya Aranyaka,V.4.42.19.

[xv] Raja Ram Mohan Roy,‘Vedic Physics, Scientific Origin of Hinduism’,Golden Egg Publishing,Toronto,1999, p.84.(V.1.192,Jaiminiya Brahman;V.1.24,Yajurveda;V.8.7,3.10,Shatapathabrahman).

[xvi]Wikipedia Contributors, 2021, ‘Air Pollution’.

[xvii]Swami Gambhirananda,p.248,V.1.6.1,Taittiriyaopanshad(sayaeśoantarhṛdyaākāśḥ।)

[xviii]Yajurveda,V.5.43.

[xix]Ibid,Vajasaneyisamhita,Navgrahasuktam,V.5;15.55.5.

[xx]Atharvaveda,V8.7.4.

[xxi]Yajurveda V.6.22.

[xxii]Rigveda, V.14.8.

[xxiii]Ibid., V.5.41.11,p.72.

[xxiv]Rigveda,Oushadhisukta,10.97.1-10.97.23

[xxv]Dwivedi Kapildev,pp.79-80.

[xxvi]Mahabharata, Shantiparva,V.184.10-18.

[xxvii]Dwivedi Kapildev,p.278.

[xxviii]Yajurveda,Ch.18,Maṇtra;1-29

[xxix]Swami Prakash Satya,‘Aum Agnihotra-An Ancient Process  of Fumigation(A Study From the Chemical Standpoint)’, Jan Gyan Prakashan,India,1974,pp.71-73.

[xxx] Holdrege Barbara,‘Veda and Torah: Transcending the Textuality of Scripture’,Sunny Press,New York,1996,pp.347.

[xxxi]Jha Ganganatha,‘Shbarabhashya’,Oriental Institute,SadhnaPress,Badroda,1933,p.7.

[xxxii]Atharvaveda,V.7.73.8,‘Aghnyeyama’.

[xxxiii]Samaveda,Tandayabrahman;V.13.1.3(sarvampaśubhirvindate).

[xxxiv]Yajurveda;V.36.22,(abhayaṁ aḥ paśubhyaḥ|).

[xxxv]Homonyms-Words with same spelling,pronunciations but different meanings.

[xxxvi]WisdomLib, 2015, ‘Rasashastra’, www.wisdomlib.org.

[xxxvii]Fifty-eighth name of Lord Krishna(Om Baline Namaha)

[xxxviii]Williams George,‘Handbook of Hindu Mythology’,Oxford University Press, London,2008,pp.73–74.

[xxxix]Wisdom Lib, 2020, ‘Bali’, wwwwisdomlib.org.

[xl]Bhagavata, Skandha,V.10.

[xli]Harivaṃśa,V.1.31;Ch.9:Mahabharata, Ādiparva

[xlii]See Panchmahayajna

[xliii]Bhagavatapurana, V.I.13,40-41; II.31, 48,.

[xliv]Parākhyatantra, V. 5.44-45 (10thcen Saiva-Siddhanta Tantra work).

[xlv]Wisdom Lib, 2015, ‘Saivism’.

[xlvi]Ibid.

[xlvii]Prativasudevas are those who are considered anti-heroic.

[xlviii]Banerjee Jitendra Nath, ‘The Hindu Concept of God’, America Star Books, Maryland, 2011, pp.51-59

[xlix]Ibid, ‘pp.51-59

[l]Vayupurana,V.69.290

[li]Samveda,Tandayabrahman,6.12.2(ṣodaśkalāḥkalāḥ)

[lii]Shatpatbrahman,V.11.8.1.3(paśvovaimaḥ)

[liii]Shankaracarya,‘Shrimadbhagvadgitabhashya’,Ch.10:Vibhūtiyogaḥ.

[liv]Shankaracarya,‘Shrimadbhagvadgitabhashya’,V.10.27-10.31,pp.157-158

[lv]Ibid, V.10.20,p.155

[lvi] Devibhagvatam, ch.13, sacred-texts.com

[lvii]Atharvaveda,V.2.26.3.

[lviii]Ibid,V.7.73.8

[lix]Ibid,V.1.4.2.53-58

[lx]Yajurveda,Taittiryasamhita Rudramsukta,V.4.5.4.

[lxi]Atharvaveda,V.11.12.30.

[lxii]Ibid,1.62.3;1.72.8;3.31.6; 4.16.8; 5.45.7;5.45.8

[lxiii]Rigveda,Yamasuktam,V.10.4.12.

[lxiv]Ibid,V.45.8

[lxv]Ibid,V.7.55.1-5

[lxvi]Mahabharat begins with Janmejaya and his brothers, who are preparing to execute a sacrificial ceremony. When suddenly, a puppy appeared, the brothers hit him ruthlessly. The injured puppy ran to its mother, sobbing, and recounted the storey. “Why was my child beaten up when he had committed no crime?” the mother went and asked the brothers. She thus, cursed them and the marks the start of Mahabharata.  The great epic concludes with Yudhishthir refusing to enter heaven without his dog, only to discover that the dog was none but Lord in disguise.

[lxvii]Vidyarayana Madhava, Swami  Tapasyananda (Tr), ‘Shankara Digvijay’, Ramakrishna Matha, Chennai, 2008, pp.60

[lxviii]Shatapathabrahmana,V.3.8.4.1.

[lxix]Atharvaveda,V.8.7.23-25

[lxx]Yajurveda,V.24.20(vasantāyekapiṅjalāna).

[lxxi]Atharvaved,V.3.14.1-6

[lxxii]Ibid,V.7.13.11;7.75.1-2

[lxxiii]Rigveda,V.8.46.31(carthegaṇe, śivatneṣu)

[lxxiv]Yajurveda,V.36.22.

China’s Culpability for Climate Change

Introduction

The nature of international relations has been constantly changing over decades and centuries, as the nature of threats to humankind’s continued survival has been evolving. If the transition from the 19th to the 20th century saw the emergence and the re-emergence of the conflicts over physical boundaries between states comprising the international system, then the transition from the 20th to the 21st century saw the emergence of the non-state actor as a potent threat in international relations. The 21st century, as juxtaposed to the previous centuries, is undergoing a host of changes ranging from cyber warfare to increase in artificial intelligence to biological warfare to the emergence of a global scale pandemic—all of which seriously threaten the continued existence of humankind. What has also become identified as a potent threat in the 21st century is climate change. While climate change per se did not emerge overnight and is an outcome of centuries of pollution, the problem has reached alarming levels given the massive number of changes taking place owing to climate change. What is more worrisome is the fact that while climate change has been recognised as a threat to humankind, states of the international system still undertake an outdated, almost territorial approach on the issue, refusing to take responsibility for change and trying to extract maximum benefits out of the existing international system for the fulfilment of their own narrow selfish interests.

The challenge becomes a type of protracted conflict as developed countries of the rich North constantly seek to evade their historic responsibility for polluting the world for decades, while trying to put emission caps on the developing world. For the developing world this becomes challenging as levels of development are directly proportional with carbon emissions. A halt to emissions also means a halt to economic development which in turn will jeopardise the lives of billions living in the developing world.

In the recent past India and China have often joined hands at climate change negotiations to remind the developed rich North of their historic responsibility for climate change and to negotiate caps on emissions in accordance with countries’ responsibilities for global warming. However, what has also been witnessed with regards to China is a peculiarity in this context. While China is a developing country and does not have the same historic responsibility as the developed world, China currently is also the biggest emitter of fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, and it accounted for more than 27 percent of total global emissions in 2020 (BBC, 2021). China emits more greenhouse gases than the entire developed world, with the US being the second largest emitter at 11 percent while India was third with 6.6 percent of the emissions (Ibid.).

China’s emissions have more than tripled in the past three decades. In fact, while Xi Jinping previously stated that China would strictly control coal fired generation projects, China has only been increasing construction of coal-fired plants (Volvovicci, Brunstrom and Nichols, 2021). State owned Bank of China has been constantly financing overseas coal projects with its funding reaching USD 35 billion since 2015 (Stanway, 2021). In September this year, Xi Jinping stated that China will not build new coal fired projects abroad. However, facts on the ground state something else, as the energy crisis that China finds itself amidst will push China to consume more coal to ensure continued electricity supply. Power cuts of various magnitudes have been witnessed in at least 20 provinces across China since mid-August this year. Shortage of coal supplies, tougher government mandates to reduce emissions and a greater demand from manufacturers have all contributed to the current situation (Lee, 2021). The energy crisis has halted production in various factories across China, which is going to have an impact on an already slowing economy. Therefore, China will have to balance its act between clean energy and declining growth rates. In this context, it becomes pertinent to look at some of the pledges Xi has made in the past regarding usage of clean energy.

Xi’s pledges regarding combating climate change

Even though Xi Jinping did not attend the COP 26 this year, he had announced last year that China’s carbon emissions will begin to decline by 2030 and that China will reach carbon neutrality by 2060 (Ibid.). For the purpose, China introduced a dual control policy which requires Chinese provinces to limit energy use and to cut energy intensity, which is defined as the amount of energy used per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The dual control system was first set in China’s 11th Five Year Plan (2006-10). However, it has gained in significance post Xi assuming the reins of power and committing to China peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and to becoming carbon neutral by 2060 (CGTN, 2021). The plan was to set a five-year target of energy consumption and energy intensity for different provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in an effort to reasonably manage the indicators of total energy consumption and energy intensity (Ibid.).

During the 2015-2020 period, China had a national target for a reduction in energy intensity of 15 percent. The latest five-year plan adopted in March this year targeted a further 13.5 percent cut by 2025 (Gao, 2021). Because of these plans, phased goals were set in place, and it was assumed that by 2025 the dual control system would be more complete with better allocation of energy resources and better energy utilisation. In this context, it becomes pertinent to take a closer look at how Chinese provinces have performed with regard to the dual control system.

In mid-August this year, China’s economic planning agency announced that 20 provinces had failed to meet their targets in the first half of 2021 (Lee, 2021). In late 2020, several provinces were reported to be struggling to meet their targets, as difficulties got exacerbated by COVID19. Some provinces even took drastic measures of cutting off power supplies to comply with the targets. This led to a realisation that an examination of the efficacy of those targets are needed. In the meantime, China’s carbon emissions went up 15 percent year in year in the first quarter of 2021 (Xie, 2021).

To deal with the possibilities of further power shortages, China is pushing miners to ramp up coal production and is increasing imports so that power stations can rebuild stockpiles before the winter heating season begins (Singh and Xu, 2021). China’s imports of coal jumped 76 percent in September this year from a year ago (National Development and Reform Commission, 2021). This is despite the pressures and the announcements made to meet targets for reducing carbon emissions. In addition to the impacts of the dual control policy, China’s thermal coal supplies have also been impacted by the recent floods in Shanxi province which is a key coal producing province (Reuters, 2021). China is already the world’s largest coal consumer and of late it has been grappling with a growing energy crisis brought on by shortages caused by natural as well as humanmade causes. The result has been shortages and record high prices.

A closer observation at China’s emissions reveals that while per person China’s emissions are about half of those of the US, its 1.4 billion population and its breakneck speed economic growth, reliant heavily upon coal energy; have pushed it way ahead of other countries in terms of overall emissions. It was first in 2006 that China became the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2006 and is now responsible for more than a quarter of the world’s overall greenhouse gas emissions (Brown, 2021). Instead of shutting down coalfired power stations, China is actually building new ones at more than 60 locations across the country with many sites having more than one plant (Ibid.). In this context, it becomes pertinent to understand China’s coal reliance. The following graph shows how coal consumption has grown over the years in China.

Graph 1: China’s Total Coal Energy Consumption

Unit: 10,000 tons

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Books 1991-2018, People’s Republic of China

Beginning from the 1990s onwards, China’s reliance on coal to spur economic development began. Its coal consumption has only grown over the years as seen in graph 1, in tandem with its economic growth rates. China’s coal consumption grew from 1.36 billion tonnes per year in the year 2000 to 4.24 billion tonnes per year in 2013, which represents an annual growth rate of 12 per cent (Qi and Lu, 2016). By 2015 itself, China accounted for 50 per cent of the global demand for coal (Ibid.).

In fact, in 2020 during the pandemic, China was the only major industrial power whose carbon emissions rose, as the central government relaxed a traffic light system designed to reduce overcapacity among coal burning state owned enterprises with a plethora of coal power projects given the go ahead (Cash, 2021). Because of China’s coal addiction, it faces the difficulties of energies transition. What also remains a big hurdle is the existence of big energy and manufacturing lobbies which laud the central government’s placing of higher emission caps while these big polluting lobbies continue their pollution spree.

In 2019, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), issued a new policy for reorganising the state-owned enterprises which dominate coal generation. The first of such an announcement was made in November 2019, followed by a more detailed statement in May 20 (Huidian Dianping, 2019). The details listed were about reorganisation efforts in the Northwest region, where coal overcapacity and financial losses are maximum. The SASAC had also stated that the plans would likely be expanded to other coal intensive parts of the country. The plan called for stricter controls of coal capacity, elimination of outdated capacity, reductions in coal-fired capacity for the Northwestern region and mergers of SOEs to form a single coal generation SOE for each of the provinces in the region (Dupuy, 2020). While the SASAC’s plans are laudable, it was argued that the plans for consolidation of ownership threaten the wholesale electricity markets that the National Development and Reform Commission was fostering and that SASAC’s planned mergers would dampen competition (Ibid).

Ma Jun, the director of the Institute of Planning and Environmental Affairs, which tracks environmental and climate records of big corporations stated that achieving climate targets while fulfilling other demanding targets needs a good transitioning strategy and so far, there are still major gaps (Stanway, 2021). China has a per capita level of carbon dioxide emissions that is far above that of countries with a similar level of per capita GDP (AFP, 2021). In fact, in 2019, China’s per capita emissions reached 10.1 tons, almost tripling over the las two decades. This was just slightly below average levels across the OECD bloc, which stood at 10.5 tons per capita in 2019. China’s per capita emissions even though significantly lower than the U.S. at 17.6 tons per capita still is significantly high. According to Larsen, Pitt, Grant and Houser (2021), China’s per capita emissions exceeded the OECD average in 2020, as China’s net greenhouse gas emissions grew about 1.7 percent while emissions from almost all the other countries declined sharply during the pandemic (Larsen, Pitt, Grant and Houser, 2021).

China’s carbon dioxide emissions rose by 9 percent in the first quarter of 2021 as compared to pre-pandemic levels (Reuters, 2021). This rise was driven by a carbon intensive economic recovery and massive hikes in outputs of steel and cement, which in turn rose as part of the attempts to reinvigorate and jump start the economy as part of post pandemic recoveries. Output from the industry and construction sector increased by 2.8 percent, steel by 7 percent and cement and coal mining by 2.5 percent and 1.4 percent respectively last year (Bloomberg, 2021). This raises questions whether the country can meet its 2060 carbon neutrality pledge. As such, China’s energy trajectory since COP 21 contradicts the goals. Even though the new five-year plan of 2021-2025 shows a lot of intent regarding carbon neutrality, numbers give out a completely different story. In this context it becomes pertinent to analyse China’s COP 21 goals.

China’s Between COP21 and COP26: Xi’s Pledges

In 2015, at the COP 21, Xi, while urging developed countries to fulfil their commitments to providing funds to developing countries to tackle climate change, pledged that China has plans to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 (Liu, 2015). He had also pledged that China would become carbon neutral before 2060. In 2021, even though Xi did not attend the COP26, China submitted its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to fight climate change, which were published on the website of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which showed that China aims to see its carbon dioxide emissions peak before 2030 and it aims to become carbon neutral before 2060. This was in tandem with the pledges Xi had made earlier. The point to remember is that the NDCs are non-binding national climate change plans that must be submitted regularly to the United Nations as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement and countries may enhance their ambitions if they are able to do so.

This year, ahead of the COP 26, China enhanced its ambitions, as it committed to raising the share of non-fossil fuels in its primary energy consumption to 25 percent by 2030, which is higher than its previous pledge of 20 percent. China also pledged to increasing its wind and solar power capacity to more than 1,200 gigawatts. China is already leading the world in renewable energy production figures, and it is the world’s largest producer of solar and wind energy (OECD, 2021). It also is the largest domestic and outbound investor in renewable energy (Jaeger, Joffe, Song, 2017). In 2016 itself, a year after COP 21, four of the world’s five biggest renewable energy deals were made by Chinese companies (Slezak, 2017). By 2017, China owned five of the world’s six largest solar module manufacturing companies and the world’s largest turbine manufacturer (Mooney, 2017). In fact, solar energy is slated to become the largest primary source of energy by 2035. China’s wind and solar capacity is to rise to above 1,200 GW in 2030 from 530 GW in 2020 (Pillai, 2021).

However, what is also a factor to consider in China’s futures in the realm of carbon neutrality is that urbanisation currently stands at 65 percent, and this will go up to 78 percent in 2050 (Ibid). Population and economic development will continue to increase as well, implying a growth in electricity consumption. Economic growth remains a top priority, as stated at the annual ‘two sessions’ in March (Liu, Liu and You, 2021). While China has made strides in renewable energy, fact remains that it is not adequately developed to meet the needs of the entire country. Su Wei, the deputy general of the National Development and Reform Commission stated in April this year that China’s energy structure is dominated by coal power, and that as compared to wind and solar power which are “intermittent and unstable” coal is a stable source of power. He also said that while coal is readily available, renewable energy needs to develop further in China. He added that because of this, for a period of time, China will need to use coal power (Cheng, 2021). This is in complete contrast to Xi’s statements of April this year when he had said that the country will reduce coal usage beginning in 2026 (Ibid.)

In addition to Su’s statement being in complete juxtaposition to what Xi had said in April regarding reducing dependence on coal, point also to note is that China, as stated previously is grappling with its worst electricity shortages in years and has asked miners to increase coal production to supply major power plants! China relies on coal-fired power generation, which is a huge contributor to carbon emissions! Also, the complete absence of Xi Jinping on COP26 also brings forth several questions on China’s seriousness regarding dealing with issues of climate change. Xi delivered a written statement to the opening session of the COP26, which however, did not offer any new climate pledges than what Xi had already made in the past.

Even though China’s 14th five-year plan (2021-26) has outlined an 18 percent reduction target for carbon dioxide intensity and a 13.5 percent reduction target for energy intensity from 2021 to 2025, and has introduced the idea of an emissions cap, it has not really gone so far as to set one (Liu, Liu and You, 2021). However, as displayed by the power crunch this year, which prompted China to redirect support to polluting fossil fuels, China faces an immense difficulty of balancing long-term climate goals with short term energy security. The reason why China did not make any new commitments at the COP 26 is the prevailing domestic uncertainties, because of which China has been hesitant to embrace stronger near-term targets.

Conclusion

China’s strides in renewable energy undoubtedly are laudable and in fact make it in a position to steer discussions on climate change and how to address the challenges. Because of these strides, China felt it was in a place to demonstrate global leadership, which is why after joining the Paris Agreement, China made laudable pledges to combat climate change including plans to reduce carbon dependence. The reinvigorated emphasis on the dual control policy was a step to combat coal usage in China. However, as stated previously, 20 provinces had failed to meet their targets as part of the dual control policy! Also, because of the historical dependence China has on coal, the introduction of sudden controls on coal usage led to a shortage of electricity in the country, which in turn led policymakers to revert to usage of fossil fuels. Additionally, the floods in coal producing provinces like Shanxi dealt a blow to electricity production, which in turn spurred the power outages across the country.

China’s dependence and addiction to coal is displayed by the fact that China delivered 60 train loads of coal to Henan province per day in July when the province reported urgent shortages of fuel to generate electricity, after major transport routes were blocked by an unprecedented deluge (Global Times, 2021). China’s plans thus seem to be in complete contradiction with the pledges Xi had made. Also, as reflected by the failure of 20 provinces to meet coal reduction targets, there is a dangerous lack of urgency in the country. Because of the back and forth between announced policies and prevailing ground realities Chinese attempts to assert its role in the world as a leader is clearly not showing up. Achieving a material and socio-economic transformation that supports the move away from coal needs major changes in governance, policies, planning, investment and organisations practices at various levels. The Chinese political economy is dominated by vested interests and complicated by perverse incentives for unsustainable production.

SOEs in energy intensive industries along with several officials with vested interests have zero or limited interest in curbing emissions or adhering to limitations on coal usage. Central officials often acquiesce or fail to rein them in (Green, 2020). On the contrary there have been drastic increases in coal fired power station development in the last few years (Myllyverta, Zhang and Shen, 2020). Research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air shows how hundreds of billions of dollars in the post COVID-19 stimulus being earmarked for energy intensive industrial projects. These exceed the planned spending on low carbon energy threefold!

Facts such as these call for caution regarding China’s pledges on climate change; particularly its 2060 carbon neutral target. Between now and 2060 a lot can happen and from the trends it is visible that the government’s medium-term targets give it space to increase emissions until 2030!  China is actually culpable for greater levels of pollution and global warming, and Xi’s pledges are only a cover for about another decade of fossil fuel based industrial expansion!

Author Brief Bio: Dr. Sriparna Pathak is an Associate Professor at the School of International Affairs, O.P. Jindal Global University, Haryana, India. She is also the Director of the Centre for Northeast Asian Studies at the School.

References

National Population Policy: A Survival Imperative

Overview

In his monumental work, “An Essay on the Principle of Population”,[i] Robert Malthus postulated that while population grows exponentially, food production grows linearly. So, a catastrophe will occur, either by famine, disease or war, to bring down the population. Although the population in the world and India has been growing spectacularly, no catastrophe of a great dimension has occurred to bring down population or its growth because food production has increased more phenomenally than population growth. This is due to increase in farmland, better irrigation, use of fertilisers and pesticides, crop rotation and improved storage of food grains; in other words, application of science and technology for agriculture.

In the 1960s, food scarcity in India was overcome only through massive food aid from the US, with the then US President, Lyndon Johnson authorising food shipments to India under PL-480.[ii] The aid was however leveraged to secure support for US foreign policy goals, with India giving assurance that it would implement agricultural reforms and temper criticism of US policy regarding Vietnam.[iii] Importing food grains was humiliating, and in 1965, Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri exhorted people to chant ‘Jai Jawan Jai Kisan’. The ‘Green Revolution’ was brought about by planting newly developed grains (wheat and rice) and using fertilisers. This raised the yield, though it did not improve food grain availability per person. However, the spectre of famine vanished, largely due to better distribution. Improvement in irrigation facilities and rapid economic growth also helped to drought proof the country.[iv] Today, India feeds over 800 million “poor” people by giving them free/subsidised food items. The amount spent detracts from investments needed for overall development—economic and social.

An increase in food grain availability may stop starvation but not ill health, illiteracy, lack of proper housing and work and employment and improvement in standards of living and achievement and respect for the country in the comity of nations. Poverty reduction by controlling growth in population, as was done by China, is hence an imperative for national development. As humans are the only species in the planet who consistently degrade the environment, a reduction in population will concomitantly also lead to the preservation of the environment. India must, therefore, have a population policy which can ensure the achievement of development goals—economic, social and security. Family size must hence be regulated through positive and negative incentives and disincentives respectively and be made applicable uniformly across the board, to all sections of people, regardless of religion, region, caste and economic status. Uneven growth of population as between sections of people leads to social strife and demographic disequilibrium, which is best avoided.

Impact of India’s Population Growth

India’s population, which stood at 35.69 crore in 1951[v] increased to 121.08 crore in 2011[vi] and is estimated to be 139.9 crore in 2021.[vii] An increase of four times since 1951, clearly puts unsustainable pressure on the land and water resources, which remain constant. To sustain the growing population, forest lands are being depleted, disturbing the eco-system leading to multiple negative consequences.

Soon after independence, the redoubtable industrialist and statesman, JRD Tata, raised the issue with Nehru, of the importance of population control. “But Jeh”, replied Nehru, “population is our strength!” Undeterred, JRD raised the subject again in 1951, but got little traction, and so Mr Tata, through the agency he founded, the Family Planning Association of India, pursued a campaign to promote family planning.[viii] JRD’s advocacy of population control not only in and for India, but on a world-wide scale got for him the United Nation’s Population Award in October 1992.[ix]

Dr. Ambedkar, too, understood the linkage between poverty and population. His views on birth control are reflected in the speech which Mr. P. J. Roham delivered, but which was written, as stated by Roham, by Dr Ambedkar. Here, Ambedkar called for limiting the family units, and urged the government to carry on an intensive propaganda in favour of birth-control among the masses.[x] In the Manifesto of the Scheduled Caste Federation (SCF) for General Elections to Lok Sabha in 1952, he wrote about his party’s policy in regard to poverty and population. “The problem of poverty”, he wrote, “is a problem of controlling the excessive growth of population… for the purpose of reducing population it (SCF) would advocate an intensive propaganda in favour of birth control among the people. It will advocate the opening of birth control clinics in different parts of the country. It regards the growing rate in the increase of population in the country so grave and evil that it would not hesitate to advocate more drastic methods of controlling it”.

India has, unfortunately, paid little heed to the sage advice of both JRD Tata and Dr Ambedkar. But it is time to think seriously on this subject, both as a poverty alleviation measure and also as an instrument of protecting the environment. While the Chief Minister of Assam, Shri Himanta Biswa Sarma as well as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Shri Yogi Adityanath are now advocating population control measures, the initiative needs to be taken on a national level. Unfortunately, population control measures are denounced by some Muslim leaders and their allies, ostensibly on the grounds that it violates Muslim personal law.

China’s rise has been aided by its success in controlling its population. They had a one child policy from mid 1970s and two children per family from 2015 which has now been increased to three children per family. India faces multiple challenges in attempting the Chinese model, due to religious differences, caste fragmentation and differences in economic and educational levels. This gets exacerbated due to India being a multi-party, periodically election-conducting nation-state, wherein politicians exploit differences to garner the popular mandate. That notwithstanding, the need for a population policy is dire and can no longer be overlooked.

A National Population Policy for India

India is a welfare state where large doles are given for food, education and other social welfare schemes. As part of the policy, such assistance could be restricted to those having two children or less. Curbs could also be placed on those having more than two children in applying for government jobs or for selling public office.

Extensive educative campaigns must be undertaken to explain the consequences of run-away growth in population and that too unevenly among different sections before promulgation and periodic revisions in national population policies. The following needs to be highlighted:

  • All people must always have despite droughts, famine and floods and epidemics, earthquakes, storms and cyclones and such natural disasters adequate fuel and food so that there are none or fewest deaths at all times.
  • People must be well nourished, healthy, educated and able and willing to work to earn their livelihood and live in reasonable comfort.
  • People must have adequate housing, either of their own or within affordable rent.
  • Death at birth and infant mortality must be nil or nearly so and life expectancy should be rising.
  • The use of natural resources below and above the ground—minerals, rivers, forests, air, fauna should not lead to unliveable conditions for humans, through reckless exploitation, which leads to environmental degradation. Most importantly, the civilisational and cultural heritage of Bharat, must be preserved.
  • Different rates of growth of populations as between states, regions, castes and religions should not lead to dissonance within society.
  • The population and its growth rate in the country should be related to the means of sustenance and economic well-being of the people.
  • The environment must be preserved.

Demographic Shifts:

The current conflict in Lebanon between Christians and Muslims is a result of demographic changes that have taken place over the last few decades. In India, demographic changes could lead to communal strife on a very large scale, if not corrected even at this late stage. While India’s population since independence has increased four times, this increase is not spread evenly across religious groups. The Muslim population has grown six times during this period as against the population of other religious groups increasing only three times.

Muslim population growth relative to Hindus should be a matter of serious concern as it is driven both by political and theological considerations. This has already led to population inversion in some parts of India, especially in the states of Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Kerala, leading to fissures within society.

Changes in religious demographics over time in India

Unequal Rates of Growth Among States and Communities

Population increase in Southern states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh is much slower that states in the North, such as Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. This could lead to a North-South divide, as seat allocation in Parliament is done on the basis of population.

Article 81 of the Constitution requires that each state receive seats in proportion to its population. The Seventh Amendment (1956) capped the maximum number of elected seats at 520. After adjustments under the Fourteenth Amendment (1962), the Thirty-First Amendment (1973), and the Goa, Daman and Diu Reorganisation Act (1987), the Lok Sabha now has a maximum sanctioned strength of 552 (530 from the states, 20 from the UTs, and two presidentially appointed members from the Anglo-Indian community) making a total of 545 representatives. The seats were to be revised every 10 years, but this revision was suspended by the Forty-Second Amendment enacted in 1976, until after the 2001 Census. In 2002, parliament, through the Eighty-Fourth Amendment, extended the suspension till the census to be held post 2026, which in effect means to 2031.[xi]

The aspect of seat allocation based on population has grave implications. The states that have performed well in controlling the population stand to lose as against the states that have performed poorly. If such a policy is implemented, the loss of political power to states that have performed well, will likely create a cleavage between those that have fared better, leading to political turmoil and upheaval. It is thus important that all states take urgent steps, not just to stabilise population growth, but to reduce the same.

Comparison of Growth between some North and Southern States


Preserving Territorial, National and Cultural Integrity

India’s population policy should not only aim at controlling the growth of   population but also preserve the integrity, sovereignty and civilisational and cultural heritage of the country. History gives examples of destruction of a country’s cultural milieu by differential growth of the populations aimed at claiming political separation and superiority as seen in Lebanon. In Netherlands, the Catholics were in a minority. They wanted to become the majority, so they nurtured large families and over time, the protestants were reduced to a minority. The same phenomena appear to be happening in parts of India: Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and certain other parts of India. In these states as well as in others, Muslims have been able to prevail upon the ruling parties through group voting strength, to carve out Muslim majority districts: Malappuram in Kerala, Mewat in Gurugram and Malerkotla in Punjab are examples. The motive is political power. Writing in the Jamaat-e-Islami weekly, “Radiance,” Dr Omar Khalidi, stated: “we need Muslim districts for three reasons. First, concentrated areas provide security; second, to provide an environment that is conducive to our cultural independence; third, to provide a political base through which our people can be elected…at preset, our numbers don’t add up to elect adequate legislators. Hyderabad and Rangareddy in Andhra Pradesh and Gulbarga (Karnataka) and certain Thalukas could be merged to create Deccan province (with Muslim majority).[xii]

Different Treatment to different Religions

India’s populations are dealt with differently in some respects, based on among others, religion, language and caste considerations. Article 30 of the Indian Constitution grants to religious and linguistic minorities, certain rights and privileges with respect to establishing and managing any type and number of educational institutions, a right and privilege not available to the Hindu majority. What percent of the total population qualifies to be reckoned as minority is also not specified in the Constitution nor by the Supreme Court. While Hindus on an all-India basis are the majority, they are a minority in several states (J&K, Punjab, Nagaland, Mizoram, Meghalaya and very soon in Kerala and Arunachal Pradesh). Minority Commissions are established only in Hindu majority states; not in Hindu minority states. Muslim personal law permits a man to have four wives and inheritance is also dictated by their personal law. There is a need to look into such issues, and for the nation to be governed by a uniform civil code, so that all people can be treated alike. The minority status is discriminatory as it affects the economic and welfare prospects of people. Governments in States and in the Centre have Minority Welfare Departments and Minority Finance Corporations, funding not only education, welfare and commercial ventures of minorities but also their places of worship. This militates against the very concept of secularism, as enshrined in the Constitution.

Conclusion

Population growth is impacting negatively on India’s cities, all of which have grown far beyond the capacity of the civic agencies to provide adequate amenities. Growth of population has also impacted negatively in the rural areas, where land holdings are diminishing and are becoming smaller. Population growth is also impacting on job availability, which is getting more severe due to mechanisation, automation and robotisation. Population reduction is therefore a necessity, which needs to be pursued with full zeal, through a dynamic national population policy.

Inter alia, such a policy must focus on:

  • Extensive and intensive education and information about the perils of large families and large populations which negate poverty alleviation efforts, increase unemployment, lead to under-nourishment among women and children, and create conflict in the scramble for limited resource availability.
  • Humans are the only polluters in the planet. Reducing the population will ipso facto, lead to reduction in pollution level, reduction of the carbon footprint, and help in preservation of the environment.
  • Limiting family size must now be a national imperative. Appropriate legislation to that effect must be made, to include legislating incentives and disincentives to promote small family norms.
  • Legislate Uniform Civil Code as mandated by the Directive Principles of the Constitution and criminalise polygamy.
  • Preserve the millennial Indian culture and civilisation values of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, Loka Sangraha and Dharma.

Author Brief Bio: Dr T.H Chowdary is Chairman, Pragna Bharati, Founder: Center for Telecom Management & Studies, Fellow: Tata Consultancy Services and Convenor, Bharatiya Dharma Rakshana Samakhya. A former: IT Advisor, GOAP and Founder CMD, VSNL, he is also a Padma Shri awardee.

[i] http://www.esp.org/books/malthus/population/malthus.pdf

[ii] Public Law 480 (PL-480) is “Agricultural Trade Development Assistance Act”, signed on Law on July 10, 1954 by President Dwight D Eisenhower. Also known as “Food for Peace,” it is a funding avenue by which US food can be used for Overseas Aid.

[iii] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/pl-480

[iv] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/drought-not-a-big-calamity-in-india-anymore/

[v] https://censusindia.gov.in/DigitalLibrary/data/Census_1951/Publication/India/23685-1951-REP.pdf

[vi] https://www.census2011.co.in

[vii] https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/india-population

[viii] https://www.tata.com/newsroom/heritage/jrd-tata-for-india-initiatives

[ix] Ibid.

[x] Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Writings and Speeches, Vol.2, First Edition, Compiled and Edited by Vasant Moon, pp 263, available at https://www.mea.gov.in/Images/attach/amb/Volume_02.pdf

[xi] https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/03/14/india-s-emerging-crisis-of-representation-pub-78588

[xii] https://www.milligazette.com/Archives/2005/16-31Mar05-Print-Edition/163103200506.htm

Why Are Our Cities So Ugly?

“There are few things certain in life – one is death, second is change and the other is waste. No one can stop these things in our lives.” – unknown

Introduction

Why are our cities so ugly? The answer has much to do with the way we live. Let us look at some statistics:

  • According to Time magazine, humans produce 290 billion kg of faeces and 1.98 billion litres of urine per year.1
  • An average person excretes or generates about 0.74 kilograms of solid waste per day, worldwide.2
  • Every year an estimated 16 billion injections are administered worldwide, more than half of these needles and syringes are dangerously thrown away or disposed of thereafter.3
  • Liquid waste – dirty water, wash water, organic liquids, detergents and rainwater is usually found in households, businesses, and industries.
  • Approximately 1,400 sq. km landfill area would be required for dumping municipal solid waste in India by 2047—almost equal to the combined area of Hyderabad, Mumbai and Chennai—3 of the 5 most populous cities of India.4

Any unwanted solid, liquid or gaseous substance discarded or thrown out by households, or commercial establishments can be considered as waste. According to the Press Information Bureau, waste can be segmented into three categories:

  • Biodegradable or organic waste (food and kitchen waste, green waste vegetables, flower, leaves, fruits and paper, etc.).
  • Inert and non-biodegradable waste (construction and demolition waste, dirt, debris, etc.).
  • Recyclable waste (plastic, paper, bottles, glasses, etc.).

Waste management is a universal issue that affects every single individual or government providing civic amenities to its people. Almost 50 per cent of India’s population is projected to live in urban areas by 2050 leading to a five per cent growth in the volume of waste generated per year.5 As towns and cities develop economically, and the population grows, waste generated is expected to increase drastically from 2.01 billion tons today to 3.40 billion tons in 2050.

As of date over 377 million people—31 per cent of the Indian population—live in 7,935 towns and cities and generate around a massive amount of 277.1 million tons of solid waste per annum. According to a 2019 India Today report, the country produces more than 1.50 lakh metric tons of solid waste daily. This is increasing every day with the burgeoning economy, urbanisation and population.6 India today produces more than 80 per cent of waste generated in South Asia and 13 per cent of the world per annum.7 According to a World Bank study, India is one of the world’s highest waste-generating nations.8 As a result most Indian towns and cities are ugly to look at and littered with garbage.

Waste Management

Human activities are the cause behind most kinds of waste, and the way it is stored, collected and disposed of poses a risk to the environment and public health. According to Planning Commission, Maharashtra generates the highest (22,080 MT per day) and Sikkim generates the lowest (89 MT per day) amount of waste. Among the Union Territories (UTs) Delhi produces the highest amount of waste, while Daman & Diu are the lowest waste generators.9

According to the World Bank’s What a Waste 2.0 report, the world generates 2.01 billion tons of municipal waste annually at least 33% of which is not managed in an environmentally safe manner.10 Improper handling and disposal of waste harms the environment and public health. It is a leading cause of soil, water and air pollution. Unsafe disposal of hazardous waste contaminates the soil and water causing serious health problems and leading to air pollution in the surrounding area.

Uncontrolled or mismanaged waste lying around attracts flies, rats, and other creatures which spread infectious diseases. The polluted environment and ineffective waste management serves as a breeding ground for disease vectors and leads to several respiratory problems and diseases like Japanese Encephalitis, jaundice, cholera, colitis, diarrhoea, worm, dysentery, and skin diseases. The US Public Health Service has identified 22 diseases including asthma, heart attack, and emphysema due to burning garbage and faecal matter in municipal waste. Unmanaged and decomposed garbage attracts rodents, which lead to diseases like dengue and malaria.

Environmental contamination is a global issue. Poorly managed waste is contaminating the world’s oceans, clogging drains and harming humans, plants and animals. All over the world, about one million plastic bottles are purchased every minute and some 5 trillion single-use plastic bags are used once and thrown away every year. Ten of the world’s biggest rivers flush around eight million tons—more than 90 per cent of the plastic waste into the oceans every year.11

The real magnitude of the problem is for everyone to see. This phenomenal amount of plastic waste is enough to fill up 2,400 Olympic stadiums or 4.8 million olympic-sized swimming pools. It weighs equal to 3.4 million adult blue whales or 1,376 Empire State Buildings. Imagine that’s just 12 per cent of the total waste generated each year.12 Already, according to the ‘World Air Quality Report, 2020’, prepared by Swiss organisation IQAir, Delhi is the world’s 10th most polluted city and most polluted capital city globally.13 Ghaziabad in Uttar Pradesh is the second most polluted city in the world after Hotan in China.14

Twenty-two of the world’s 30 most polluted cities are in India. India, Pakistan and China collectively account for 94 out of the top 100 most polluted cities in the world. The largest number of cities in the list of top 10 most polluted cities in the world is in India.15 India ranks highest with 46 of the world’s 100 most polluted cities followed by China (42), Pakistan (6), and Bangladesh (4) in terms of air quality index. These include Noida, Greater Noida, Lucknow, Kanpur, Meerut, Agra, Bulandshahr, Bisrakh, and Muzaffarnagar (in Uttar Pradesh), Faridabad, Jind, Fatehabad, Bandhwari, Gurugram, Yamuna Nagar, Rohtak, Dharuhera and Hisar (Haryana), and Bhiwadi (Rajasthan).16

According to the Delhi Pollution Control Committee, people in Delhi breathe the worst air between November 1 and November 15 every year followed by Noida (488), Ghaziabad (486), Greater Noida (478), Faridabad (460), and Gurugram (448). 17 As per a scientific paper on the health and economic impact of air pollution, 1.7 million deaths—i.e. 18 per cent of the total deaths in the country in India in 2019 were attributable to air pollution.18

Managing waste properly is essential for building sustainable and liveable cities, but it remains a challenge for many developing countries and cities. Effective waste management is expensive, often comprising 20%–50% of municipal budgets. Operating this essential municipal service requires integrated systems that are efficient, sustainable, and socially supported.

Is Garbage-Free India a Distant Dream?

Solid waste management is one of the necessities to keep the town and cities clean. Solid waste management is a serious problem in India not just because of environmental concerns but also because of the enormous quantities generated every day. Experts believe that India is following a flawed system of waste disposal and management. Almost all municipal authorities indiscriminately dump solid waste in dump yards within or outside the city. Waste dumping and open burning continue to be the principal methods of waste disposal in India. These dump yards are known to frequently catch fire. An 18-ft high inferno at Deonar19 in Mumbai in 2016 went on for three months, pumping tons of cancer-causing smoke caused by burning plastic and leather. Burning garbage is the third biggest cause of greenhouse gas emissions in India.

Heavy metals and toxic liquid in the rotten garbage is absorbed into the soil or water bodies. This leads to contamination of the entire food chain and rivers, endangering humans, plants and animals. According to data from the Ministry of Environment and Forests, only about 75–80% of the municipal waste is collected scientifically and only 22–28% of this waste (27,000 MT per day) is processed and treated. The remaining 80 per cent (1,08,000 MT per day) is dumped in an unhygienic manner in landfill sites leading to health and environmental degradation.20 The stench and ugly sight of garbage dumped on the roadside, clogging of the drains and garbage floating on the surface of the rivers, particularly during the rainy season, is a common sight in India.

It is estimated that urban municipal solid waste will increase to 387.8 million tons in 2030 and 543.3 million tons by 2050.21 At the rate at which we are littering hazardous waste we would need about 88 sq. km of land—the size of New Delhi—just to dump it by 2050, according to an Assocham and PwC joint report.22 “This will eventually render the land unfit for any other use for as long as a half-century before it can be stabilised for other uses,” says the report, ‘Waste Management in India: Shifting Gears.’

The solution lies in a garbage-free India as a part of the ‘Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’.

Objectives of Waste Management

The main objective of waste management is to reduce the harmful effects of the discarded pile of waste on health and the environment and improve the quality of life of people living or working in the vicinity. The philosophy behind waste management is governed by 3R’s namely, Reduce, Reuse and Recycle. In other words, only a minimal amount of waste should be generated, and a substantial amount of this waste should either be reused or recycled. To do so, it is particularly important to:

  • prevent the generation of waste.
  • promote reuse of waste.
  • promote biological recovery of waste and recycling of materials.
  • promote energy use of waste not suited for recycling.
  • ensure that the treatment and disposal of waste does not cause any harmful impacts.

According to a recent report by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM)-NEC, India is among the top five countries in the world, in terms of e-waste generation next only to China, the USA, Japan and Germany.23 The study concludes that, though India generates 2 million tons of e-waste—discarded electronic devices and gadgets like computer monitors, mobile phones, chargers, compact discs, headphones, televisions, air conditioners, and refrigerators, only 4.3 lakh tons is recycled per annum.

The e-waste products contain toxic substances like lead, cadmium, mercury, hexavalent chromium, plastic, PVC (polyvinyl chloride), BFRs (brominated flame retardants), barium, beryllium, and carcinogens such as carbon black and heavy metals which can cause severe health problems to those handling the waste. Mismanagement of e-waste and prolonged exposure to pollutants released by e-waste adversely affects the crops, and drinking water, consumed by both humans and animals. They can also lead to kidney damage, respiratory diseases, skin disorders, and lung cancer.

The Stumbling Blocks – Drawbacks of the Present System

India is predicted to reach an estimated 125 million tons of waste, making it the largest waste contributor in the world by 2048. The current waste management practice in India involves collecting waste from sources through a community collective bin system, which gets transported to a low-lying landfill system with intermediate processing of Municipal Solid Waste. The open dumping practice leads to problems like pollution and health hazards.

The major problems affecting solid waste management are unscientific treatment, improper collection of waste, and ethical problems. This in turn leads to hazards like environmental degradation, water pollution, soil pollution, and air pollution. Some of the other bottleneck areas include:

  • No storage of waste at source
  • No system of primary collection from doorsteps
  • Irregular street sweeping
  • Waste storage depots are a problem
  • Transportation of waste is not satisfactory
  • Processing of waste: only a few cities have been practicing this
  • Disposal of waste is a neglected area and the current practices are grossly unscientific

Waste to Wealth

Waste is a valuable resource with the potential to generate innumerable environmental and monetary benefits if properly treated. For instance, did you know that recycling 5 PET bottle produces enough fibre for making one t-shirt? The Waste Management market in India is said to be a USD 14 billion opportunity by 2025.24 India has the potential to generate 3GW of electricity from waste by 2050. Some of the sunshine areas of waste management include municipal solid waste, electronic waste, bio-medical waste, and agricultural waste. This is both a challenge as well as a golden opportunity. India is set to become the world’s most populous country as per projections of the United Nations with 7 new megacities by 2027. At this growth rate, India would need landfills almost 90 per cent of the size of Bengaluru for dumping the waste if left untreated.

Case Studies: Best Practices of Solid Waste Management around the World

Waste is generally viewed as dirty with no value; this limited thinking is why waste management is not given the weightage it deserves. Every city is different when it comes to solid waste generation and management. Here are some of the fascinating, innovative and eco-friendly waste management strategies being implemented all over the globe.

Kamikatsu, Japan:

There is a Japanese word ‘mottainai’ which in other words means “don’t waste anything worthy”. The spirit behind it is to use all things as long as possible. It represents the island nation’s commitment towards waste management and ‘zero-waste’. Kamikatsu, a small town approximately 40 kilometres from Tokushima city in the mountains of Shikoku Island in Japan, signed a ‘zero-waste’ declaration in 2003. Today, Kamikatsu is a ‘zero waste’ town without even a trash collection system. The residents themselves segregate the waste into 45 categories. 80 per cent of this waste is recycled and only 20 per cent goes to landfills. The residents voluntarily wash, sort, and carry their trash to the recycling centre and make sure that it lands up in the right bin. Kamikatsu’s heroic efforts have inspired other communities in Japan to take up the zero-waste challenge.

Mexico City, Mexico

Bordo Poniente dump, just outside Mexico City used to be one of the world’s biggest open-air landfills. Hundreds of trucks were used to dump more than 12,000 tons of waste each day. In 2011, Mexico City authorities decided to close down the 927-acre Bordo Poniente landfill. The idea behind this was to convert millions of tons of garbage to energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2 million tons annually. BMLMX, a power company, signed a contract with the Mexican government to utilise the biogas from the landfill site to generate 250 GWh electricity—enough to illuminate about 35,000 homes and the streets of Mexico for 25 years. This is, apart from the creation of short and long-term jobs for contractors, service providers and labour in the construction, operation and maintenance of the landfill gas capture system. As yet another spin-off, a cement company agreed to buy 3,000 tons of dry waste daily to burn as fuel as well as produce organic fertiliser for the city’s parks and gardens in the composting plant.

Malang City, Indonesia

With a garbage output of 200,000 tons a day, Indonesia ranks as the second-highest generator of plastic waste worldwide. Almost half of the population of Indonesia earns less than USD 2 a day and a majority of them do not have any health insurance. Though both the issues—waste management and healthcare may seem unconnected, Dr Gamala Albinsaid, the CEO of Indonesia Medika, a healthcare company, saw this as an opportunity and created Garbage Clinical Insurance (GCI), a micro health insurance program that lets people trade garbage for medical services and medicines. There was a time when people used to think that garbage is worthless and healthcare is expensive, but now they feel that garbage can be valuable and after all healthcare isn’t necessarily so expensive.

Sweden

Over the last few decades, Sweden has emerged as one of the global leaders in waste management. Strange though it may sound, it is a fact that Sweden has run out of trash and is now asking other countries for their garbage to keep its recycling plants running. Less than one per cent of Sweden’s household waste goes into the landfill dump. Over 50 per cent of the waste generated in Sweden is burned in waste-to-energy facilities. The 32 waste management plants in Sweden produce heat for 810,000 Swedish households and electricity for about 250,000 private homes in the freezing Swedish winter. The country has adopted a recycling policy that funnels all the energy generated by burning waste into the national heating network.

Semakau Landfill, Singapore

The word ‘landfill’ immediately creates the image of a smelly mountain of rubbish. But Semakau Island, created by reclaiming land between two small islands, eight kilometres off the coast of Singapore, is different. The world’s first offshore landfill site (island) was created entirely from the sea space at USD 399 with a capacity of 63 million cubic meters. Semakau landfill receives about 1,400 tons of incineration ash and 600 tons of non-incinerable waste every day and is expected to meet Singapore’s need for landfill space beyond the year 2040. The landfill operation will eventually create an island made almost entirely of waste. Semakau landfill has been constructed to contain all wastes within the landfill area and keep the surrounding marine ecosystem and sea waters pollution-free. Great care has also been taken to keep the landfill clean, and odour free. Semakau landfill was opened to members of the public for recreational activities. Since then, the island has gained popularity with nature lovers due to its rich biodiversity.

Conclusion

The world is not our personal ashtray. When we throw anything, it must go where it is meant to be. As has rightly been stated, if we don’t want to live in a trash can, we should stop making it one.

Waste management is not a complex, unsolved puzzle. Many solutions already exist. What is needed is urgent action at all levels of society. We ourselves are the cause and cure behind the dumps of garbage. It is time now, to get our act together and as a society, keep our environment clean and green.

Author Brief Bio: Mr Neeraj Mahajan isa media professional with over 30 years of experience in print, electronic, web and mobile media. He is the Editor of Taazakhabar News and World News Report

References:

  1. https://time.com/4098127/human-waste-energy-recycling/
  2. https://datatopics.worldbank.org/what-a-waste/trends_in_solid_waste_management.html#:~:text=Worldwide,%20waste%20generated%20per%20person,tonnes,%20of%20the%20world’s%20waste.
  3. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/health-care-waste#:~:text=Every%20year%20an%20estimated%2016,,%20furans,%20and%20particulate%20matter.
  4. https://www.epw.in/engage/article/institutional-framework-implementing-solid-waste-management-india-macro-analysis
  5. https://www.wastedive.com/news/world-bank-global-waste-generation-2050/533031/
  6. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-s-trash-bomb-80-of-1-5-lakh-metric-tonne-daily-garbage-remains-exposed-untreated-1571769-2019-07-21
  7. https://theprint.in/india/pm-calls-for-week-long-garbage-free-country-but-india-is-the-worlds-highest-waste-generator/478889/
  8. https://theprint.in/india/pm-calls-for-week-long-garbage-free-country-but-india-is-the-worlds-highest-waste-generator/478889/
  9. https://www.orfonline.org/research/solid-waste-management-in-urban-india-imperatives-for-improvement-77129/
  10. https://datatopics.worldbank.org/what-a-waste/
  11. https://www.unep.org/interactive/beat-plastic-pollution/
  12. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/immersive-story/2018/09/20/what-a-waste-an-updated-look-into-the-future-of-solid-waste-management
  13. https://currentaffairs.adda247.com/new-delhi-ranked-as-worlds-most-polluted-capital-city/#:~:text=New%20Delhi%20has%20been%20adjudged,world%20is%20Xinjiang%20in%20China.
  14. https://weather.com/en-IN/india/pollution/news/2021-11-12-ghaziabad-placed-first-among-indias-most-polluted-cities
  15. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/among-world-s-10-most-polluted-cities-3-are-from-india-check-full-list-here-101636766984042.html#:~:text=Now,%20a%20list%20compiled%20by,also%20feature%20on%20the%20list.
  16. https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/94-of-world-s-100-most-polluted-cities-are-in-india-china-pakistan-121112300020_1.html#:~:text=In%202020,%20India%20had%2046,polluted%20cities%20are%20in%20India.
  17. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/smog-tightens-grip-on-delhi-ncr-aqi-seasons-worst-at-471/articleshow/87669334.cms#:~:text=According%20to%20an%20analysis%20by,severe%20air%20quality%20at%204pm.
  18. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/pollution-killed-nearly-17-million-people-in-india-in-2019-study#:~:text=Pollution%20accounted%20for%20nearly%201.7,the%20country’s%20toxic%20urban%20air.
  19. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/87429/fire-burns-in-mumbai-landfill
  20. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-s-trash-bomb-80-of-1-5-lakh-metric-tonne-daily-garbage-remains-exposed-untreated-1571769-2019-07-21
  21. https://theprint.in/india/pm-calls-for-week-long-garbage-free-country-but-india-is-the-worlds-highest-waste-generator/478889/
  22. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-needs-new-delhi-size-landfills-for-waste-by-2050-report/article19144908.ece
  23. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-among-the-top-five-countries-in-e-waste-generation-assocham-nec-study/articleshow/64448208.cms
  24. https://www.psa.gov.in/mission/waste-wealth/38

COP 26: THE INDIAN VIEWPOINT – An Interview with Shri Bhupender Yadav, Union Cabinet Minister of Labour and Employment, Environment, Forest and Climate Change

Gaurie Dwivedi

Thank you, Mr. Yadav for speaking to India Foundation. The talking point across the world is about the COP 26 milestones, the decisions that have been taken, and more importantly, the parallel narrative that is being built about how India pulled down a collective effort. How do you first view the larger effort that is currently on and then we can get onto the nitty-gritty of India’s position?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

A major milestone for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations was the Paris Agreement in 2015. In principle, it was accepted by almost all the nations across the globe. There were two basic spirits of the Paris Agreement. First is Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) and the second is climate finance. Due to the increasing global warming, every nation was concerned and had concurring opinion that solutions needed to be implemented for its mitigation and adaptation. For the question about ‘how’ to implement these solutions, the answer was ‘Common but Differentiated Responsibility”. We all have the same target, that the world should be saved from climate change, but every nation would have to take decisions based on their national circumstances. That is why even the targets set in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) were based on individual national circumstances of different countries. Second, the major countries, the ones who captured maximum carbon space during the industrial development, committed that they would give compensation and climate finance for these contributions. This is why, when this discussion came up in Glasgow, it was asserted that as per ‘CBDR,’ each country has the right to take decisions about energy production. A fundamental of ‘Climate Justice’ is also poverty eradication. In fact, India is one of those countries who impose maximum tax on fossil fuels. Our petrol and diesel tax is among the highest. On the other hand, we provide ‘Ujjwala’ subsidies to 12 crore women. This way, the smoke that would be created in their rooms due to biofuel combustion is decreased. This has brought change in the lives of 12 crore women. For this reason, our point was, and not just us but all the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India and China)—and even other developing countries had this common point—that the principle of CBDR be accepted. Common but differentiated responsibility according to national circumstances and subsidy will be continued, subject to the poverty eradication and vulnerability of the local society. We only presented this principle, the voice of the developing countries in front of the world.

Gaurie Dwivedi

When I said that a narrative is being built, it has to be seen that India’s per capita emission is just one-seventh or one-eighth of the US and is also even lower than China’s. Considering how big a polluter China is, they must take bigger steps. But, when the negotiation was on in COP 26, India was connected to these countries, considered alongside China, which somehow undermines our efforts. How do you view the situation?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

India is among those countries who achieved the NDCs they declared in Paris. And not just achieved, we also fixed ambitious targets. In our renewable energy production, we reached 165 GW. We now took a target of 500 GW. Even before that we targeted 450 GW. We said that we will take our renewable capacity to 40%, and we achieved that goal and now we are moving to 50%. We said that we will reduce carbon emissions and we did reduce them. The biggest point is that under our Honourable PM, Shri Narendra Modi Ji’s Panchamrit, India presented a new action-oriented example to the world. We will cut our carbon emissions due to development by 1 billion tonnes by 2030. It is a cumulative effect and is being done very scientifically. We believe in action along with vision. After 2015 Paris Agreement, India joined three major action programmes with regard to climate change. First, we started International Solar Alliance with France. Today, 102 nations of the world are members of the Solar Alliance. This significant achievement happened in Glasgow, and is not limited to International Solar Alliance alone. We are now moving towards ‘One Sun, One Grid, One World’. Countries like France, UK, Australia, US and others have come forward for this. Second, we are working on how to promote green technology in sectors which are major carbon emitters like cement, aluminium and others. Corporates and various countries are coming together to deliberate on this issue, on the platform of Lead IT that we have created along with Sweden for this purpose. Third, India has also been doing great work on the Disaster Resilient Infrastructure platform that we have with UK. This time our honourable PM came together with the PM of Australia and the PM of UK to create the IRIS platform to help small island nations with their vulnerabilities. This once again shows both our vision and action. 

Gaurie Dwivedi

According to you, what are the major steps that India needs to take in the next five to eight years and what are the steps for which the world needs to put in collaborative effort?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

One crucial issue is the target of Panchamrit that our honourable PM Modi ji has shown. Second is technological development. How do we move towards green energy? We are working on increasing our solar energy generation capacity and alongside have also initiated a National Hydrogen Mission. We also have to look into changing and adapting our lifestyle practices. Simultaneously, we also have to increase the global carbon sink. I believe that the developed countries, who not only have a moral responsibility but also a pledge, should come forward for technology transfer and climate finance. They must accept their large amounts of carbon emissions and historical wrongdoings that they have committed. In this matter, India fervently leads all the developing countries.

Gaurie Dwivedi

If developed countries need to move ahead in this direction, there needs to be a realisation that 2009 level of fundings cannot be expected in 2021 or 2030. In this regard, how are the developed countries being pushed to fulfil their responsibilities in terms of funding?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

India has been exerting a great deal of pressure on this issue. You earlier talked about making collective efforts. Our honourable PM gave the mantra of ‘environment-friendly lifestyle’. If this time, there were six or seven decisions taken in this direction, it was because of India’s strong representation of the voices of developing countries. Firstly, in Glasgow, all developed countries expressed deep regret that they couldn’t provide climate finance. Now they would have to do more for this responsibility. Besides expressing deep regrets, they also need to take action. Second, an ad-hoc committee was discussed for deliberating the definition of climate finance. Discussion also took place over continuation of long-term finance. A draft would also be prepared about adaptation, between the time-frames from Glasgow to Sharm el-Sheikh. Most importantly, we have always held that if they do not carry forward the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) and the CERs (Certified Emission Reductions) from the Kyoto protocol, then there would be no credibility to the issue of carbon credits that they wish to raise. We believe that this issue raised by India and other developing countries has been fully accepted as part of Article 6 of the rule book of Paris Agreement. We still hold that developed countries should come forward to fulfil their responsibilities.

Gaurie Dwivedi

Recently, Germany announced a funding commitment of 1.2 billion Euros for India to fight climate change. Do you believe that issue of environment leadership that India has been raising would give an impetus to increase funding and solve this problem of funding?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

With regard to funding, I believe that there needs to be more clarity on climate finance. This must happen with pace. As far as India’s initiatives are concerned, India has not only set ambitious targets, but has also fulfilled them. One of the major threats of climate change is desertification of land; to address that we are running a joint-programme of eight ministries. We are undertaking major projects such as NCAP to solve the problem of air pollution. Over ten of our ministries are working on various initiatives with regard to environment including Swachh Bharat mission, Ujjwala Yojana, Unnati project etc, as well as work in the agriculture sector. All those techniques, adaptation practices and mitigation measures that are needed to be taken by modern societies are being implemented by India.

Gaurie Dwivedi

Do we need to change our perspective about environment? We need to be careful, conscious and aware that when we talk about environment or climate, it is one of the foremost threats to the world at large. Do you think that this larger transformation has not happened by now? It is an ongoing process and would not happen in a day but do you think that there should be more work in this direction by the civil society, academia, research and other?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

This is a fact that environment awareness needs to come and environment education has to be pushed. Climate Justice also needs to be brought to the fore. The issue of lifestyle should also be raised. We have 17% population of the world but account for just 4% of total carbon emissions. Hence, our per capita emissions are very low. There is also an issue of lifestyle, which must be discussed. Our honourable PM has also focused on this issue. Besides lifestyle changes, we also need to put impetus on our biodiversity, flora, fauna and our other issues. The world needs to rapidly progress in adoption of green technology, which is environment-friendly, through technology transfer. Meanwhile, nations must also fulfil their responsibilities towards their citizens. This is such a balancing act in which all nations need to work together, because the impact of climate change transcends geographical boundaries and has a cumulative global effect. That is why every country must contribute, based on their national circumstances. India strongly believes in these thoughts and regularly asserts them. Climate Justice is an important part of Climate Change. Eradication of poverty is a crucial part of Climate Justice. That is why every country must take this into account while going forward.

Gaurie Dwivedi

There is a great deal of concern that technology transfer is not taking place. What do you think should be the roadmap ahead? Should it include public-private partnerships, or B2B or remain only in government-government (G2G) sector?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

This should be open and include all forms and modes. The way we are digitally empowered across the world, knowledge-sharing, transfer and knowledge base are fundamental but what is important is that we become more open, responsible and poor-friendly towards knowledge sharing.

Gaurie Dwivedi

Would the government focus more on the idea of green-hubs or do you believe that this can be just one aspect of the solution while a holistic solution needs to be 360 degrees?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

We need a 360-degree solution. Green sink must rise but along with that we also need to look at desertification of land, problems in coastal areas, adoption of new agricultural practices, threats from rising emissions from new cities and other critical aspects. Our earth is under a layer of gases and rising emissions of CO2 and other gases is having a significant impact on the same. Even in this regard, nations need to take action considering their national circumstances. Just few months back, India’s Cabinet also approved the Kigali amendment which talks about phasing down of these hydrofluorocarbons. Such decisions are being taken across the globe, but what is necessary is that it involves capacity building of all countries. This is why, when the issue of loss and damages, time-framework and measurement methods was raised in Glasgow, India put forward the point that developing countries should be equipped with both capacity and finance and this was agreed to. I believe that if our framework to gauge global warming is strengthened, the world would be better able to face the upcoming threats in a collective manner.

Gaurie Dwivedi

When we talk about India in the context of climate and environment, a major issue that comes up is of air pollution. Now it has passed the phase of challenge and evolved to become an emergency. What kind of measures do you think need to be taken? How much do you envisage the role of states and the federal structure? Is there going to be a holistic solution to it or will people continue to suffer?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

Indeed, there are solutions. You have asked an important question. I wish to point out that air pollution and climate change are two different aspects. But since you have asked this question in the context of India, I will answer. The 15th Finance Commission has announced a Rs 4,400 crore package that we have also started distributing to states. Our honourable PM has also started National Clean Air Mission Programme and we have started regional meetings for it as well. Recently, we had the first meeting in Mumbai and we are going to conduct more meetings across the country. We have selected 138 cities which are reeling with air pollution. We have signed MOUs with their municipalities and released certain guidelines for them which covers issues including garbage combustion, vehicular pollution, dust pollution, thermal power plant mitigations, industrial pollutions. We have chalked out plans for these issues and even worked out a method for measurement.

Second, under environment ministry we have also released the ‘Prana portal’ for public awareness on the issue. Indian government has also brought a Special Act for Delhi-NCR region. For the first time, we have given legal recognition to air sheds. To manage Delhi’s pollution, we moved from BS-IV to BS-VI petrol and nationally, we have introduced a scrapping policy. In Delhi, we have diverted traffic to eastern peripheral expressway and western expressway and brought policy to measure dust pollution. We are shifting the entire industry to PNG to reduce industrial pollution. In a few days, our National Air Quality Control Authority, which has technicians and experts, is going to bring forth a mega programme to solve the pollution of Delhi-NCR region. We have also introduced few new ways to deal with stubble burning to reduce its pollution. First, we have distributed machines to end the stubble. Nearly Rs 700 crore have been expended by the Central Government for the same. Second, the government worked, both independently as well as in collaboration with various groups, on decomposition of the stubble to convert it to manure. This was done on nearly 1 lakh acre land in both Punjab and Haryana and about 6 lakh acre land in Uttar Pradesh. Thirdly, we also worked on utilising it as biofuel. Nearly 1,500 tons was acquired by NTPC, which was a pretty big tender. To utilise it as animal fodder in future, a small pilot project was run to dispatch it to Kutch and Western Rajasthan, where there are cattle in large numbers but lack of fodder. Even though it was at a small scale, the pilot project did take place. In COP 26, one Indian youth got award for Takachar, a firm that works on converting stubble to product while in the cutting phase itself, and then directly sending it for biofuel. In future, there would be more such experiments. Comprehensively, we nudged and appealed to the farmers to not simply burn the stubble but to rather utilise it to increase their production and incomes or use it as manure. In light of the four-five new initiatives, I believe we would be better able to handle the problem in future.

Gaurie Dwivedi

My last question: As 2021 draws to a close, what would be the two-three defining initiatives by your ministry in the post-COP26 world, in 2022, in light of all the developments of this year?

Shri Bhupender Yadav

Our Ministry has brought forth changes in two Acts which have been forwarded to various committees of the Parliament. First, we are providing approval to the CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) Treaty in the Wildlife Act, to uphold the international standards of wildlife protection in our country. Second, biodiversity is one such field that can help our farmers and tribals to prosper through the rich flora of our country. We are working on increasing their productivity through innovation and academic research of international standard. Third, there are a lot of lakes in our country. We are targeting to get Ramsar Convention status to 75 lakes. As of now, we have been successful in getting 47 lakes registered. Ten of our beaches have got blue tag and we plan on working more for their conservation. Similarly, we are looking into the issue of Western Ghats. We also aim to push forward our National Clean Air Programme with more sincerity. We have great institutions in our country like Biological Survey of India and Zoological Survey of India, which efficiently raise the issues of flora and fauna, and we plan on strengthening such institutions. 14 of our tiger reserves have got accreditation so we aim to work with more rigour in this direction. To make our environment clearances more nature friendly and development based, we are also working to improve our Parivesh portal. I believe that with these targets we would be able to protect our biodiversity, lead to more afforestation, and push forward an environment-friendly development in the country.

Brief Bio:

*Shri Bhupender Yadav is Union Minister for Environment, Forest and Climate Change and Labour and Employment, Government of India.

*Ms Gaurie Dwivedi is a Journalist and Author.

Together, We Win”: Regional Military Cooperation for HADR

On Dec 07, 2021, the late Gen Bipin Rawat, CDS, highlighted the importance of simplifying defence cooperation within a region. He was addressing delegates from BIMSTEC Nations at a Curtain Raiser event held at Delhi, for PANEX-21- an HADR (Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief) exercise envisioning greater regional cooperation.[i]

PANEX-21 is the third in the series of BIMSTEC HADR exercises, and is ground-breaking in two ways. Firstly, the theme of the exercise is ‘Response to Natural Disasters in the backdrop of a Pandemic’, exploring the new challenge where existing rescue and relief SOPs must be modified in line with pandemic management protocols. Secondly, the militaries of the member nations are participating for the first time, indicating that the role of the Armed Forces is expanding into Operations Other Than War (OOTW) to include HADR. The motto for the exercise, quite aptly, is “Together, We Win”.

Why Do We Need Regional HADR Cooperation?

In the past, western developed nations were the leading providers of humanitarian assistance, leveraging their economic and military prowess to project “soft power” across the globe. However, the changing world order, the increased interdependence on multilateral issues within a region and the economic rise of nations (especially in South and South East Asia) has seen a reversal of western ‘expeditionary’ HADR operations, with regional groupings providing similar assistance.

For example, to enhance ASEAN’s collective response to disasters, member states developed the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) and established the AHA centre for coordinating disaster management issues. Catalysed by experiences gained and lessons learnt during the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan experience, the “One ASEAN-One Response” Declaration was inked in September 2016 to “increase the speed, the scale and the solidarity of ASEAN’s response”. Mr. Said Faisal, former Executive Director of the AHA Centre, has said “Speed is about how fast we can move. Scale is about how big the resources that we can mobilise. Solidarity is about doing this together. It is about a united response in the region”.[ii]

Many experts believe there is a clear case for regional cooperation for Disaster Management because the primary impacts of large-scale disasters are often felt across national borders. Second and third order impacts on economy, healthcare and rebuilding are definitely of regional concern. Speaking at a seminar during PANEX-21, Mr. Md. Mosharaf Hossain, Director, Connectivity and Security Division, BIMSTEC Secretariat, said that there was a need to explore the feasibility of a “One Region-One Response” policy.[iii]

The diversity of capabilities, expertise and structures in different nations in a region can be leveraged as an opportunity for promoting regional cooperation on disaster response by sharing of information, experiences and best practices. From Disaster Risk Reduction technologies to pooling of resources by trusted partners within a region, a joint approach can make better facilities available as well as speed up response times—all leading to saving valuable lives and limiting disaster damage.  Finally, regional cooperation in “Building Back Better” would catalyse a rebound for the regional economy.

Why include the Military?

Militaries have expertise in surveillance & reconnaissance, evacuation, restoration of communications, debris clearance & quick construction, medical and surgical assistance in field conditions, setting up of relief infrastructure, green field supply chain establishment and so on. The UN urges that militaries should be used during humanitarian situations only as a “last resort” for international responses, but their deployment to manage disasters is quite common in the Indo-Pacific region.

The military’s capabilities to mobilise in the disaster aftermath, provide logistics support and human resources, their disciplined approach and set command and control structures, have always been useful in disaster situations. With limited resources during disasters, almost every developing nation leverages its Armed Forces for HADR.

The militaries, in turn, have acquitted themselves exceedingly well in all spheres in HADR operations, and earned the goodwill of the citizens of their own countries. Trans-border deployments have also taken place under bilateral arrangements, including after the 2004 tsunami, the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, cyclones Nargis (2008) and Mora (2017) and the Rohingya refugee crisis (2018).

Among the quickest to respond to the devastating earthquake in Nepal in 2015, India garnered worldwide praise for ‘Operation Maitri’ by deploying specialised medical and relief teams from the Army and Air Force. In 2020, Indian Naval Ship Kesari was dispatched with military medical teams, essential medicines and food items to the Maldives, Mauritius, Madagascar, Comoros and Seychelles following separate requests from these countries during the pandemic. Hence, there is a strong case for inclusion of military components when creating a regional apparatus for HADR cooperation.  Apart from the humanitarian angle, there are spin-off advantages for the militaries, as well: –

  • Military Diplomacy. This is a good outreach to extend support and increase the area of influence. It is also a form of military cooperation without a “security” It provides opportunities for militaries in the region to train and operate jointly and increase military-to-military contact, without the raised eyebrows associated with a “military exercise” or a military grouping. The significant goodwill generated can smoothen the way for other alliances, activities and even interventions.
  • Military Messaging. Mobilisation of military assets for HADR deployments is showcased as soft-power outreach, but essentially, HADR readiness is also a pointer of operational readiness. The speed and scale of deployment sends the right messages.
  • Research and Innovation. While actual deployments would be based on the scope and nature of disaster, routine joint training and sharing of best practices in the Preparatory Phase of the Disaster Management Cycle itself is a major platform for showcasing the research, innovations and best practices from the Defence Research as well as private manufacturers. For example, “Raksha Kawach”, a simple but effective innovation by Lt Col Paul of the Armed Forces Medical College, Pune, India[iv] was showcased at PANEX-21. The mechanism is for reducing the contagious aerosols from a COVID patient and minimising the risks to HCW as well as other patients, which would be beneficial to other countries in the region. Similarly, from passive DRDO innovations like a quick deployable isolation hospital to “Dual Use” technologies for surveillance, communications and rescue operations can be showcased, in an increasingly competitive world.
  • Maintenance of Peace. The Disaster aftermath is often a breeding ground for law-and-order problems, and the presence of a disciplined and respected force quells despair that forces the community to sink into lawlessness. By a limited stretch of imagination, a quick response to contain the damage in the recipient country also messages inimical forces. Disasters also expose certain socio-economic and security vulnerabilities of the affected area, where adversaries with specific agendas would rush to fill the void and gain traction for specific narratives. Military deployment for HADR ops under the regional umbrella can thwart this threat to a considerable extent for the greater good of both the recipient nation as well as the donor.

When to use the Military

It is important to lay down terms of reference for the employment of militaries for this secondary role, to obviate sensitivities and respect jurisdictions. Military operations for HADR must always be in support of a regional or national HADR agency, as a tool to supplement the existing relief mechanism.

Deployment must always be at the request of the recipient state, under a Regional Framework Agreement. The regional grouping HQ or secretariat may take the decision for regional military deployment based on:

  • The scale of the disaster
  • Nature of response/aid needed
  • Proximity and capability of other responders
  • Need for specialised military equipment.

The final utilisation and deployment must be under the aegis of the recipient state, with a regional control cell coordinating the regional and global relief efforts. Necessary clearances and readiness of humanitarian support and relief material, teams and equipment must be worked out in the preparatory phase itself. This calls for institutionalisation of diplomatic and legal protocols for regional humanitarian response.

One Framework for ‘One Region- One Response’

The offer of military assets to another country for HADR operations is usually coordinated through bilateral offers of disaster assistance. The pooling in of military resources at the regional level is certain to result in economy of effort and optimising the efficiency of response.

ASEAN has already done so with its Concept Paper on the ASEAN Militaries Ready Group (AMRG), a coordinated military capacity that would deploy under the ‘One ASEAN, One Response’ framework. The ‘Expert Working Group’ of ASEAN Defence Ministers developed standard operating procedures to streamline the management of multilateral military teams for rapid and coordinated deployment to disaster areas. The concept for AMRG was thus born.[v]

A similar arrangement exists in the Caribbean, where ‘CARICOM Disaster Relief Unit’ is a regional response mechanism that mobilises and deploys to CARICOM States after disaster strikes, but the AMRG model is more evolved, resulting in a truly multilateral approach to HADR and showcasing ASEAN as the pioneer in multilateral military cooperation for OOTW.

The complexity of regional military support for HADR involves synchronisation of regional efforts for risk assessment, institutionalisation of contributing assets, jurisdictional issues, security and legal sanction for other militaries, coordination of move and deployment and harmonisation of response plans. Thus, there is a need to set up a regional organisational structure and framework treaties.

Regional Organisational Structure

For HADR to move away from bilateral or multilateral trappings to a truly regional paradigm, an organisational structure with embedded channels of control & communications is a prerequisite. The common ground of agreement in a humanitarian crisis scenario needs to be deliberated, found, accepted and evolved into a regional institutional & legal framework to ease coordination of relief efforts in a dynamic, chaotic post disaster environment.

Since different nations have different capacities and capabilities, a mapping of these military assets volunteered by member countries will need to be done, recommended under the following heads:

  • Mobility Assets: Ships, transport aircraft, vehicles, engineering and plant equipment.
  • Communication Assets : Quick deployable towers, satellite communication sets, radio sets.
  • Surveillance and Reconnaissance Assets : Drones, Quadcopters, Unmanned Ground Vehicles, radars, surveillance aircraft.
  • Search, Rescue and Evacuation Assets: Special Forces, Heartbeat sensors, rafts, Helicopters.
  • Medical Assets: Quick deployment teams and medical/surgical equipment or medicines, field hospitals or surgical centres, diagnostic laboratories etc.
  • Survival Assets: Relief aid packages including foodstuff, blankets, tentage, storage shelters, mobile sanitation arrangements, electricity generators etc.
  • Human Resource Assets: Experts in technology, communications, debris clearance, logisticians, doctors.
  • Capacity Building Assets: Training facilities, conduct of exercises, SOPs etc.

To harmonise efforts of multiple stakeholders from transnational to local levels for containment, mitigation and response in the event of a disaster, the regional grouping must evolve and formalise institutional and legal frameworks for information dissemination, mobilisation of resources, interoperability, channels of communication & cooperation to include military assets.

On occurrence of a disaster that needs a regional response, the affected member state may requisition the regional coordinator. This may be for specific assistance or a general call for help. In the latter case, an ‘Empowered Group of Experts’ may lay out the specifics. Based on the prioritisation and time of requirement of specific assets, their movement from donor members will be coordinated under the ratified framework.

Hence it is imperative that the militaries of all nations be co-opted in the formulation of the institutional arrangements. They must also participate in various HADR exercises at national and regional levels to enhance training and interoperability.

A Note of Caution

Governmental and military organisations historically prefer structures that are strictly hierarchical, promoting clear channels of information flow (Need to Know) and accountability through Chain of Command (executive orders). However, Disaster Response is an arena where information is scanty and fragmented, communications are jeopardised, and decisions made will affect lives.  Effective incident response is relative to four key capabilities[vi]:

  • Rapid adaptation in response to changing conditions.
  • Management of distributed information.
  • Effective coordination between responders.
  • Emergent collective action.

Philippines experience in response to the Typhoon Washi (2010) by the existing hierarchical response structure failed to build relationships between responding agencies at the ground level which were severely restricted due to bureaucratic protocols[vii].

An organisation with great degree of formalisation requires more time and effort just to comply with bureaucratic protocols. For disaster response, rigid and hierarchical structures must be changed in favour of flexible organisational structures based on shared leadership, making it possible to adapt faster to dynamic situations.[viii]

Hence, it is imperative that the regional apparatus must facilitate rapid bonding of contingents, ensure reliable common operating picture/situational awareness, quick decision making in a chaotic disaster environment, without infringing perceived national jurisdictions and trespassing on the local sensitivities.

Interoperability would be key, which needs evolution of a common vocabulary for overcoming language barriers, compatible communication systems and simple protocols, participative training and military to military coordination by joint HADR exercises as well as open channels of communication. All the above requirements point towards a flat and modular structure and not a tall and hierarchical one.

Why should we start with BIMSTEC?

BIMSTEC is substantial. BIMSTEC accounts for 22% of the global population – over 1.5 billion people – and has a combined economy of USD 2.7 trillion (GDP).[ix]  It is often repeated that the grouping has potential to interface between South Asia and South East Asia (read ASEAN) or even bridge South East Asia with the Gulf Countries.

BIMSTEC is relevant. With the effectiveness of SAARC being watered down,[x] all eyes are now on BIMSTEC towards fructification of the Neighbourhood First and Act East policies. This was also signalled by PM Modi’s invitations to BIMSTEC leaders for the swearing in ceremony for his second term, in place of SAARC leaders whom he had invited the first time.

BIMSTEC is Disaster Prone. The “World’s Hazard Belt”, the Indian Ocean Region, is naturally prone to disasters due to a combination of hydrological and geological factors. Within Asia, 30% of all natural disasters in Asia affect the BIMSTEC grouping.  Disasters in the past five years affected 1.28 billion people and resulted in damages of over USD 154 billion[xi] and this is not counting the COVID pandemic.

Leadership is Aligned. BIMSTEC leaders have already encouraged closer cooperation in disaster management through info-sharing, adoption of preventive measures, joint action on relief and rehabilitation and capacity building.

Initiatives have already been taken. BIMSTEC has already taken baby steps in HADR collaboration by way of three joint exercises, the latest one being PANEX-21 at Pune. The BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate (BCWC) is established and provides information and capacity building assistance to member nations. India is also providing Disaster Early Warnings and has set up a link between BIMSTEC countries through the Tsunami Early Warning Centre.[xii]

This is an opportune time. The Draft Charter of BIMSTEC secretariat is likely to be ratified in the 5th Summit likely to be held soon. 14 erstwhile shared areas of interest are being whittled down to 7 sectors, with a Member State as lead country in coordinating activities in each sector.

Disaster Management will be clubbed under the Security Sector with India as the Lead Country. This is a golden opportunity to press for greater regional cooperation, because “Together, we win!” the cooperation model, once validated, can be suitably modified for other regional groupings.

CDS Gen Bipin Rawat’s last public appearance was when he addressed delegates for the PANEX-21 Curtain Raiser. He spoke about highlighted the importance of drawing ‘Common Legal Frameworks and Information Sharing Mechanism’ to simplify Defence Cooperation among BIMSTEC Nations.[xiii] The time has come for this vision to be realised.

Author Brief Bio: Colonel Rajat Mohan Bhatt is a serving Army officer. He is an alumnus of Sherwood College, the Defence Services Staff College, Army War College and the College of Defence Management. He possesses a PG diploma in Disaster Management.

[i] PIB Press release at https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1778741.

[ii] One ASEAN, One Response declaration from https://asean.org/storage/2016/09/Declaration-on-One-ASEAN-One-Response.pdf

[iii] Recorded by the author during PANEX-21 Seminar, Session II, Pune , 20 Dec 2021.

[iv] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/afmcs-new-device-raksha-kawach-contains-filters-infectious-aerosols/articleshow/79049619.cms

[v] Trung, Nguyen T., “Ability of the ASEAN Military Ready Group to Provide Effective Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations”, Defense Technical Information Centre (US DoD) report from https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD1125002

[vi] Nowell, B., Steelman, T., Velez, A.-L. K., & Yang, Z. (2017). The Structure of Effective Governance of Disaster Response Networks: Insights From the Field. American Review of Public Administration Vol. 48(7), 699-715.

[vii] Jovita, H. D., Nurmandi, A., Mutiarin, D., & Purnomo, E. P. (2018). Why does network governance fail in managing post-disaster conditions in the Philippines?. Jàmbá Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 10(1).

[viii] Gaspary, E., Moura, G., & Wegner, D. (2020). How does the organisational structure influence a work environment for innovation? Int. J. Entrepreneurship and Innovation Management, 24(2,3), 132-153.

[ix] MEA. (2020). Brief on BIMSTEC. Delhi.

[x] Jawad Falak, Implacable Failures of the SAARC,  21 Jun 2017, from https://cscr.pk/explore/themes/politics-governance/implacable-failures-of-the-saarc/

[xi] Data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED, Belgium)

[xii] https://mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/BIMSTEC_June_2020.pdf

[xiii] https://news.abplive.com/photo-gallery/news/india-cds-gen-bipin-rawat-s-last-public-appearance-as-he-addressed-panex-21-1498619

Book – Balochistan: In the Crosshairs of History

Author: Sandhya Jain

Publisher: K W Publishers Pvt Ltd;

Hardcover:  346 pages

Book Review by Maj Gen Dhruv C. Katoch

The book, “Balochistan: In the Crosshairs of History,” authored by Sandhya Jain, is an exceptionally well researched treatise on Balochistan. Brilliantly researched and presented in a very readable format, the book covers in its swathe the entire gamut of Baloch identity and history, the machinations which led to the Baloch lands being hived off to Iran and Afghanistan, and the traumatic manner in which Balochistan was forcibly merged with Pakistan. Thereafter begins the quest by the Baloch people to regain their independence from the stifling oppression of the Pakistani state, a quest which continues upto the present times, in the hope that someday, the Baloch people will finally regain their freedom.

Spread over 347,190 square kms Balochistan is the largest of Pakistan’s four provinces, with 43.6 percent of the total land mass. But in terms of population, it is Pakistan’s smallest province with less than five percent of the total population. The contrast between territory and population largely shapes Balochistan’s particular situation and problems. It contains most of Pakistan’s mineral and energy resources but its small population gives it little say both in Pakistan’s national politics and over how its huge resources are developed.

In the Middle Ages, the decline of the Caliphate in the 11th century CE led to the rise of the Baloch in Makran. Mir Chakar, the leader of the Rind Tribe, laid the foundation for large scale Baloch migration into those lands in the late 15th Century after he had briefly conquered Punjab and Sindh. However, the present land boundary of Balochistan was a creation of British imperialism largely for geographical, administrative and security reasons. It was an artificial construct which divided the Baloch lands between the British Empire of India and the Persian Empire to the West, when the Goldsmid Line was drawn in 1871, giving away almost a quarter of Baloch territory to Iran. The Durand Line, drawn in 1893, further ceded a strip of Baloch land to Afghanistan. The British then divided the Baloch areas under their influence into three parts, one of which became the Kalat State, with Lasbela, Kharan and Makran as its vassals. One part became British Balochistan and the third was the tribal areas. Sir Robert Sandeman, who later became the Chief Commissioner of Balochistan, was the architect of British strategy in the region and he negotiated a number of treaties with the Khan of Kalat during 1854 to 1901. Through these treaties the British Government gained control over the leased territory of Chaghi, Bolan Pass, Quetta and other areas.

The principality which Baloch Nationalists regard as the historic Baloch national state was that of Kalat, founded in 1638. In 1876, the British signed a treaty with the Khan of Kalat by which Kalat and its dependant territories came under British suzerainty. In a meeting held in Delhi on 4th August 1947 between Lord Mountbatten and the Khan of Kalat, and which was attended by Mr Jinnah, Lord Mountbatten assured the Khan that the state of Kalat would revert to its pre 1876 status and become independent on 15 August 1947. The rulers of Kharan and Lasbela were informed by the British that they had been placed under the suzerainty of the Khan. Control over the Marri and Bugti regions was also reverted to the Khan thereby bringing the entire Baloch areas of British India under the direct or indirect control of Mir Ahmad Yaar, the Khan of Kalat. The Khan declared his independence on 15 August 1947 and offered a special relationship to Pakistan in the field of defence, foreign affairs and communication. But the state was usurped by Jinnah, with the Khan of Kalat being forced to sign the instrument of accession. The legal entity of Kalat was abolished and most of the members of the Balochistan cabinet were arrested or exiled from Balochistan. Thus began the resistance to Pakistani rule.

The quest for independence is an ember which the Baloch people have kept lit in their hearts. The various insurgencies which keep erupting from time to time is a testament to the spirit of freedom which the Baloch people keep in their breasts despite the ruthlessness with which the Pakistani state continues to suppress them. This aspect is highlighted by the author along with her prognosis for what the future holds. A combination of geo-political factors have, unfortunately placed Balochistan in an unenviable position wherein both their neighbours—Iran and Afghanistan—are actually wary of Baloch independence as this will ignite passions in the Sistan and Baluchestan province of Iran as well as in the Baloch population in Afghanistan, which may seek merger with the larger Baloch grouping. Baloch independence thus appears to be a chimera, as external support, which is an essential component of such movements, is not available. India can do little to help as it lacks land connectivity to Balochistan.

The author has also delved into the economic exploitation of Balochistan and how the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (C-PEC) is aggravating tension amongst the Baloch people, especially with Gwadar being developed as a port by China. Balochistan’s coastline with the Arabian Sea has five official ports, but it also has several unofficial natural small jetties which are exploited by smugglers and drug traffickers, which adds to the volatility in the region. In the final chapter of her book, the author has delved into the geo-strategic significance of the region and the interplay of regional and global dynamics which continue to pan out to the detriment of Balochistan.

This is a book which must be read by a wide audience, from college students to military personnel, from diplomats to researchers in think tanks and from history buffs to the lay reader. The author brings out with amazing clarity, the interplay of social dynamics within the various Baloch communities as well as within Pakistani society as a whole and juxtaposes these into the regional and global dynamics that are continually playing out in the region. A great deal of scholarship has gone into the writing of this book as evidenced by the extensive footnotes at the end of each chapter. Besides its eminent readability, it is also a great scholarly work, which can be used as a reference book and thus eminently qualifies to adorn the bookshelves of all libraries.

Brief Bio: Maj Gen Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.

A Changing World Order: Challenges for India

Introduction

The last couple of years have witnessed two cataclysmic events which are now shaping a new world order. The first of these was the emergence of a pandemic, caused by the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which caused the coronavirus disease (COVID-19).  The first reported case of COVID-19 occurred in China as early as November 2019. The virus would soon engulf the world in a pandemic that still has not been brought under control, despite the fact that we now have a vaccine to ward off the more lethal aspects of the disease. The second event was the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban on 15 August 2021. Both these events, when viewed through the prism of national security, throw up a series of possible challenges which India may have to confront in the coming years. These would require to be addressed at the highest policy making levels.

Three additional factors that will contribute to global instability, and which India will have to confront are the impact of climate change, the global thirst for natural resources and the quest to be a leader in the development of advanced technology.

The Pandemic

SARS-CoV-2 is possibly a man-made virus, which emerged from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), in Wuhan, China. Chinese reticence in the matter and the fact that it withheld information, has fuelled suspicions of a “lab-leak”.[i] But the strategic implications are important for India to take note of. We are entering the era of bio-weapons and while these may have been banned by the UN Biological Weapons Convention, which effectively prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons,[ii] many countries still continue to carry out such experiments, and may even have stockpiled such weapons. The possibility of such man-made disasters occurring in the future, or the deliberate use of such weapons by a hostile power, hence cannot be ruled out.

India had limited resources to handle the pandemic in early 2020, but facilities were soon ramped up and through preventive measures such as closing down the country, a large-scale tragedy was averted. But we cannot be in a governance mode which is only dependant on shutting off people from work in order to save lives, as this impinges on the livelihood of the poorest of India’s poor. We need to have organisations and systems in place to provide early warning of emergencies which may occur due to biological or any other form of attack and have plans in place to deal with such eventualities. The strategy must be to formulate preemptive policies on national emergencies and not act through disaster management procedures. This requires a measure of political unity across party lines and a very agile and forward-looking bureaucracy, which can assess a situation and take focussed action on a geographical area to contain the spread, rather than a ‘one size fits all’ approach. Obviously, a lot of advanced thinking and contingency planning would be required, which can be put into motion as and when the need arises. For this, all organs of the state must work in synergy to overcome the challenge at hand. Prompt action is important. India did not study the China case immediately after it occurred, perhaps because the Chinese kept a tight lid on the matter. In any case, the information available was sketchy and little was known then about SARS-CoV-2, but in future, all our embassies abroad as well as the health ministry in the Centre and in each state need to keep track of any such occurrence anywhere in the world, to enable a more strategised and coordinated approach to tackling future pandemics.

On the positive side, the efforts of India’s scientist in developing a vaccine, which many thought was not possible for India to achieve, was indeed laudable. The Prime Minister and his government gave full support to all such efforts, which was why India has emerged as the major supplier of vaccines, not just for its own population, but also to the world.

A major fall out of the pandemic has been the disruption of supply chains. The supply shock that started in China in February 2020 was followed by a demand shock as the global economy shut down exposing vulnerabilities in many critical sectors and leading now to what can loosely be termed as economic nationalism.[iii] This is a lesson India and indeed the rest of the world has learnt to its cost, as many countries had critical dependencies on China. The need for diversification of imports for critical items, especially in critical sectors such as pharma has to be ensured, to avoid shortages in times of crisis.

The Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan was a foregone conclusion, once an agreement was reached between the US representatives and the Taliban leadership in Doha on 29 February 2020.[iv] The Afghan government was not part of the accord which further eroded its credibility. President Biden committed the US to withdraw all forces in Afghanistan by 31 August, the deadline being given to mark the passage of two decades of the September 11 terror attacks on the United States. The Taliban however did not wait for the deadline to end and by mid-August, in a series of attacks on the Afghan forces, had taken over most parts of the country and were on the outskirts of Kabul. By the evening of 15 August, Kabul fell to the Taliban without a shot being fired, leaving the country in total control of the Taliban.

The implications of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan are many. It marks a shift in the geo-strategic landscape of Central Asia, with the US no longer a major voice in the region. Surprisingly, none of the regional players, especially Russia and China have moved in to fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of US forces. As of 31 October 2021, no country has accorded recognition to the new regime. An essential condition to regime recognition will be a more inclusive government and the grant of rights to women in Afghanistan. The Taliban may be constrained in treading a more liberal path as other terrorist outfits in Afghanistan, such as the Islamic State could exploit this to further their own agenda. In the meantime, the possibility of Islamic terrorist organisations making their way to Afghanistan, to seek a safe haven, is high. This could lead to such groups using Afghan territory to plot attacks in other parts of the globe. How the situation unfolds is to be seen, but the possibility of Afghanistan slipping into civil war remains a high possibility.

For India, the events in Afghanistan can have three possible major repercussions. One, it could lead to a spurt in terrorist activity within the Union Territory of J&K. This is premised on the possibility of Pakistan sending in terrorists from Pakistan based organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba, which were earlier fighting alongside the Taliban and which now can be used against India. This level of threat however, will pose but a limited challenge to India, as security in the hinterland as also along the Line of Control is adequate to deal with such elements.

A more insidious threat however, is the spurt in radicalisation that could occur within India, through a virulent Islamic ideology emanating from Afghanistan, calling for the establishment of an Islamic state in India. Some of the states that could be vulnerable to such an insidious form of subversion are West Bengal and Kerala as also the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Indian agencies would need to keep a tight watch on the social media and on the activities of subversive groups to prevent such an occurrence from gaining credence. It would show in civil disturbance movements which could align themselves with political groups and NGOs, ostensibly to highlight local concerns, but with an ulterior motive of destabilising the state.

The third threat that could possibly manifest is the Pakistani state coming under Taliban rule, facilitated by the military. While the possibility is low, seeing the extent to which Pakistani society has been radicalised, it cannot be summarily dismissed either. The danger to India would be a human crisis in Pakistan that could potentially lead to millions of Pakistanis fleeing their homes to seek shelter in India, just as the Afghans are fleeing their homeland now. How such a situation is to be dealt with, should it come about, needs to thought of and factored into our security calculus.

Non-Conventional Threats

The threats we face are not confined to the internal and external security domains but reflect in other sectors as well. Here, I make mention of three potential areas of concern, whose impact on India could be debilitating. The first of these is the impact of climate change leading to a rise in ocean levels. Amongst India’s neighbours, Bangladesh would be greatly impacted, with large swathes of its land mass getting submerged. This could possibly lead to a lead to a huge human migration, with the only refuge being in India. How such a contingency can be handled, would also need to be a part of the security matrix of the country.

Shortage of resources caused by a black swan event could also be a critical destabilising factor. We need to look into probable events that could occur, such as the possibility of a conflagration taking place in the Gulf, which could potentially lead to the closure of oil producing facilities as well as of shipping across the Strait of Hormuz. As India is dependant on energy from the Gulf, such an eventuality would be catastrophic and would set back India’s development effort by many years.

Of equal import is the need to protect our indigenous industry. Not just our hostile neighbours, but all our competitors would like to see India dependant on them. As an example, there is a distinct attempt being made to stifle India’s copper and aluminium production. The intent is covered under the garb of environmental protection and other such social causes. But we need to take a deeper look at who the beneficiaries are in this game and ask why buying from them is not creating similar environmental concerns in their country. We need to stop being gullible and chart a course that is in India’s interest and not get enslaved again by foreign powers.

Advanced technologies will play a major role in the ability of major powers to gain dominance in the world order. Emerging fields such as Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing, spatial computing, Green Hydrogen, Biometrics, Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality, Blockchain, Robotics, Internet of Things (IoT) are some of the exciting technologies that will shape the way we live, work and interact with each other. The leaders in these fields will be the dominant players in the new world order, and India cannot miss the bus as we did earlier in the industrial revolution. This is a filed where competition is intense and the line between friend and foe get blurred. India will not only have to invest in these technologies, but will have to ensure the safety of our scientific manpower.

Conclusion

The challenges India faces in the emerging new world order are immense and encompass a wide range of conventional and non-conventional threats. Our ability to maintain social harmony will be a critical factor to enable the achievement of development goals. We have a political leadership that has the vision to take India forward, but it would require a very agile bureaucracy to foresee potential challenges and to implement the goals set out. A change of mindset in the bureaucracy from controllers to facilitators is also the need of the hour. Bharat can rise if the ordinary Indian is unshackled, the society remains cohesive and an environment for excellence is created across all domains.

Author Brief Bio: Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.

References:

[i] Amy Maxmen & Smriti Mallapaty, The COVID lab-leak hypothesis: what scientists do and don’t know available at https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01529-3

[ii] https://www.un.org/disarmament/biological-weapons/

[iii] https://hbr.org/2020/09/global-supply-chains-in-a-post-pandemic-world

[iv] https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

A World Union Based On Resurgent Asianism

Hindu and Buddhist priests and monks were the first people to carry India’s influence across its boundaries two millennia ago. The Buddhist monks largely chose the land routes with the exception of Sri Lanka, where Buddhism was taken by the son and daughter of emperor Ashoka – Mahinda and Sanghamitra – in 3rd century BCE. Monks from Northern India had traveled to Tibet, China, Mongolia and Bhutan carrying the religion of Buddha. On the other hand, the Hindu priests too managed to reach countries as far as Cambodia, Vietnam and Indonesia in the initial centuries of the first millennium carrying with them the benign religion of Hinduism. While there were references to instances of the Greek and Hindu scholars exchanging philosophical ideas in the pre-Christian era, recorded evidence of Hindu influence over the countries in the Indian Ocean region dates back to 4thcentury CE.

Almost for a millennium after that, the region, which is today described as South East Asia, used to be called as Greater India. Although the southern empires like the Cholas and Pandyas had undertaken military expeditions through the great oceans to expand their influence over remote islands like Borneo and Bali, it in effect remained cultural only to a great extent. The religion and culture of the benign colonisers were heartily welcomed by the subject societies leading to establishment of not only the religious customs and traditions but also large temples and monuments. From Bali in Indonesia to Cham areas in Vietnam to Angkor Vat ruins in Cambodia, the living and historical evidences of the influence of India is conspicuous to this day.

History progressed, and socio-politico-religious realities of these lands had undergone major changes over centuries. India too was preoccupied with its battles against the invaders for almost a millennium, and hence had no time for its cultural empire. Yet, the historical memories did not fade away. When the time came to unshackle from the imperialist yoke, India did not think only about itself, but the entire Asian neighbourhood. If Rishi Aurobindo talked about Asian renaissance as India’s historic responsibility, Gandhi and Nehru talked about Asian relations for anti-imperialist brotherhood.

In his address to a radio station in Tamil Nadu on the eve of independence, which also happened to be his birthday, Rishi Aurobindo talked about his five dreams.[i]  While advocating for freedom and unity for people of India as his first dream, Aurobindo turned to Asian resurgence as his second dream in which India had an important role to play. “Asia has arisen; large parts are now quite free or are at this moment being liberated; its other still subject or partly subject parts are moving through whatever struggles towards freedom. Only a little has to be done and that will be done today or tomorrow. There, India has her part to play and has begun to play it with energy and ability which already indicate the measure of her possibilities and the place she can take in the council of nations,” he exhorted.

A few months before Aurobindo’s exhortation came the Asian Relations Conference on 23-25 March 1947 called by Jawahar Lal Nehru with the objective of bringing about a “psychological revolution,” “a new imagination of Asia”. There were 230 delegates and observers from 30 countries at the conference, highlighting the faith and trust reposed by many of them in India’s leadership. A new ‘Asianism’ or ‘Third Worldism’ was born at the conference. Unlike the Asianism of India thus far, which was limited to the cultural remnants in Greater India, Nehru’s mission was to create an Asian federation that would eventually be a step in the direction of greater world federation. Interestingly, Aurobindo too talks about the same idea as his third dream a few months later.

Although Nehru declared that his intention was not “against anybody,” he and other speakers at the conference were equally categorical that the new Asianism would make sure that Asians wouldn’t become the “playthings of others”. There was a clear desire articulated by many speakers at the conference that Asia should be free of Western influences. It cannot be Communist either. Hence the idea that Asian nations should form a coalition as Third World countries.

Gandhi was invited to deliver a speech on the last day of the conference. He made certain interesting observations. Terming all wise men from Zoroaster to Buddha to Jesus to Mohammad – not to talk of Rama and Krishna – to be belonging to East, Gandhi emphasised on Asia’s antidotal message to the West. “What I want you to understand is the message of Asia. It is not to be learnt through the western spectacles or by imitating the atom bomb. In this age of democracy, in this age of awakening of the poorest of the poor, you can redeliver this message with the greatest emphasis. You will complete the conquest of the West, not through vengeance, because you have been exploited, but with real understanding. I am sanguine, if all of you put your hearts together – not merely heads – to understand the secret of the message these wise men of the East have left to us, and if we really become worthy of that great message, the conquest of the West will be completed. This conquest will be loved by the West itself”, Gandhi told the conference.[ii]

Asian Relations Conference did not survive for long. Nehru’s Asianism dream died its quiet death after the Bandung Conference of Non-Aligned nations in Indonesia in 1955. But Asianism and Third Worldism did not die. Asianism survived through different experimentations in the region like EAS, SAARC, BIMSTEC and IORA. It manifested through the principle of ‘Neighbourhood First’ in 1990s and transformed into the principle of ‘together we grow’ under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Third Worldism took the shape of non-alignment in later years and ‘strategic autonomy’ today.

At a time when a new Cold War is beginning to threaten the world order, India needed to turn a leaf or two from the old-world politics of Asian centrality and strategic neutrality. More importantly, it should realise that it has a much bigger role to play in the world politics than what Nehru had intended to seven decades ago.

Asianism of the last century did not succeed partly because India and China – two large nations in the region – could not get along. The Sino-Indian War of 1962 had thrown water over Indian romanticism about leading the Third World with Asian centrality. But the fact that its immediate playground is its Asian neighbourhood was never forgotten. With the formation of SAARC and BIMSTEC, it tried to return to its pet theme. It evolved further when India became a full dialogue partner with ASEAN in 1995 and developed its own ‘Look East policy’.

Nelson Mandela, the legendary leader of South Africa visited India in the same year. That visit had resulted in the birth of another regional coalition called the Indian Ocean Rim Association – IORA. During Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime, the Look East policy has been upgraded into Act East policy. Through these initiatives India tried to revive its Asianism theme. It had its Achilles’ Heel to its west in Pakistan and by extension the Arab and Islamic Middle East and West Asia. In the last few years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has successfully attempted to overcome the jinx and build stronger ties with that region too.

While the 20th century ended with the collapse of the Cold War politics, the world did not remain multilateral for long. A new Cold War is taking shape in the new century with Eurasia and Indo-Pacific emerging as the epicentres of global power politics. Unlike the last century when the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States was fought in far away Pacific-Atlantic region, the new Cold War is raging in India’s immediate neighbourhood.

One of the central themes of the Asianism of 1940s and 50s was that Asia wouldn’t be allowed to become a playground of big power rivalry. In his Shangri La address in 2018 at Singapore, Prime Minister Modi reiterated it by insisting on Indo-pacific region to be inclusive and peaceful.[iii] Many Asian nations aspire for it as new war clouds gather in the region.

Like at the time of budding Asianism in the last century, China remains a challenge in this region now also. During the last Cold War, China benefitted massively by siding openly with America from 1970s onwards. China’s current economic prosperity is a gift of America in the 1980s and 90s. India cannot afford such politics because the new Cold War is being fought at its doorstep. Aggression of China in the Indo-Pacific region and formation of new military alliances like AUKUS led by America to counter that aggression have the potential to turn the Asian region into an Armageddon. Together, they will bring highest number of nuclear submarines in India’s backyard.

India needs to recalibrate its response to this evolving challenge carefully. Western Quad may be a romantic idea to checkmate China in UAE and Israel, but what is more important for India is the Indian Ocean region. Countries in this region look up to India as the biggest power in the neighbourhood. At the Asian Relations Conference, there were a large number of leaders present from this region and they were the most supportive of all to India’s leadership. In a way, it is India’s natural region of comfort.

India needs to invest more energy on this region. It’s relations with immediate neighbours like Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, with whom it shares a strong cultural and people-to-people bonds, need greater attention. China’s footprints are all over in the region. India needs to go beyond its diplomats and build newer and firmer bridges with leaders and peoples in these countries.

There is a misplaced obsession with India’s soft power potential in its neighbourhood among sections of Indian political establishment. It is time we realised that soft power in its conventional form is an over-used and outlived concept. Need of the hour is smart or sharp power, where the cultural advantages are used strategically to secure national interests. Building an International Airport at the Buddhist pilgrim centre of Kushinagar in Uttar Pradesh by Modi government is one such example of smart power in action.[iv]

While we should continue to benefit from our growing bonds with America and other western powers, we must never give up on the core principles of foreign policy set at the time of independence that include Asian centrality, inclusivity, and strategic autonomy. While China is a ‘risen power,’ India is the ‘rising power’ in the region and if strategised well, it has the potential to play the pivotal role in building a ‘world union’ envisaged by Aurobindo and other leaders of independence on the basis of a resurgent Asianism.

 

Author Brief Bio: Shri Ram Madhav is an Indian politician, author and thinker who is the Former National General Secretary of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He is a Member of the Board of Governors of India Foundation. He also serves as a Member of the National Executive of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS).

References:

[i] https://aurosociety.org/society/index/1947%2C-August-15th-Message

[ii] https://www.mkgandhi.org/speeches/interasian.htm

[iii] https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/29943/Prime+Ministers+Keynote+Address+at+Shangri+La+Dialogue+June+01+2018

[iv] https://www.livemint.com/news/india/how-up-s-kushinagar-international-airport-will-prove-to-be-a-gamechanger-11634615206930.html

Afghanistan and the New Grand Chessboard

The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan has triggered a new ‘Great Game’. From the time Tsarist Russia and the British Empire vied for influence in Central Asia, Afghanistan has been a pivot of great power rivalry. While London and Moscow avoided conflict and the British retreat from the subcontinent in 1947 provided a lull, things changed with the Soviet invasion in 1979. Moscow retreated a decade later, leading to the eventual rise of the Taliban, till the 2001 terror attacks on American soil led to US intervention. Washington’s retreat two decades later facilitated the Taliban’s return; its impact is reverberating across the globe.

AUKUS – NATO

Soon after Taliban walked unopposed into Kabul on 15 August 2021, President Joe Biden announced a security alliance on 15 September 2021, comprising Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, known now by its acronym – AUKUS.[1] This nuclear coalition was created to bypass a declining North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and European Union (EU), balance the constraints of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), defend Taiwan, and contain China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. The AUKUS stunned Washington’s NATO and EU allies; France’s US$ 90 billion submarine deal with Australia was collateral damage.

Mocked by critics as an Anglo-Saxon pact, AUKUS is an alliance of three nations, neither of whom have land links with Eurasia. Britain, once the paramount naval power, is keen to return to Oceania, while the United States is the world’s preeminent naval power. Between them, they can provide heft to the Australian navy and help overcome Canberra’s concerns about a direct attack from Beijing, to which it has closest proximity. Australia was the natural choice to complete the alliance as it is a member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence gathering system presided over by the United States.

The new trilateral alliance was needed because pacts like A-NZ-US have long been dead. Moreover, New Zealand had opted for nuclear disarmament in 1985 and reiterated its decision to deny nuclear-armed or nuclear-powered ships access to its ports.[2] The European Union is not a military power and some members desire a truce with China that is now the EU’s largest trading partner and investor. Europe also relies on Russian oil and gas for energy. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is keen on a vast free trade area that includes China. Philippine Foreign Minister Teodoro Locsin, however, welcomed the pact as ASEAN member states lack the military resources to maintain peace and security in the region.[3]

The key concern in Washington and London is Taiwan, which the People’s Republic of China may try to seize by force. Analyst Ram Madhav observes in the event of conflict in the Taiwan Straits, Washington would need Australia as a base as the Okinawa base in Japan has become obsolete with China’s improved missile capability.[4] The AUKUS Pact will bring the trio to Taiwan’s rescue. At the G7 summit in Cornwall, UK, in June 2021, Japan emphasised the importance of Taiwan’s security. Analyst Thierry Meyssan believes that Biden, Morrison and Johnson discussed the new alliance in Cornwall.[5]

The presence of Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Defence Minister Peter Dutton in Washington suggests the pact goes deeper than buying nuclear submarines and could cover space, missiles, quantum computing, cyber-warfare, underwater systems, long-range strike capabilities, artificial intelligence and grey warfare on the internet. Vice-Admiral David Johnston, Vice Chief of the Australian Defence Force, also attended the White House meeting.

The AUKUS will equip Australia with Tomahawks and Hornet missiles and involve it in research into hypersonic missiles that can compete with Russian nuclear missiles.[6] Over 18-months, the allies will decide whether the British or American submarine is the best option for Canberra, along with workforce, shipyard and training needs. Construction would begin “within the decade” and the first submarines could be operational by end-2030s.

Diplomatic engagements, however, continue. On September 10, President Xi Jinping made a telephone call to President Biden to resolve the issue of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of telecom giant Huawei, who was detained in Canada at Washington’s request in December 2018. She was released on September 24 after all charges were dropped; simultaneously, former Canadian diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor, held soon after Meng’s arrest, were released from Chinese jails and sent back to Canada.[7]

On September 28-29, the 16th round of US-PRC Defence Policy Coordination talks were held between Michael Chase, US deputy assistant secretary of defence for China, and Chinese Major General Huang Xueping, via video conference. In early September, Beijing urged Canberra to facilitate its joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, hinting at the need for cooperation despite some glitches (Beijing imposed punitive sanctions against Australia because Canberra sought an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic). In return for TPP-11 membership, Beijing could reopen its markets to Australian products before the elections of 2022.[8]

Meanwhile, President Biden spoke with President Macron on September 22; France agreed to send back the French ambassador to Washington.[9] The two leaders will meet in Europe in late October. It is pertinent that France is the only European nation with nearly two million citizens in the Indo-Pacific, an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 11 million sq. km., and a military presence of 8,000 personnel. It is an important pillar of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

President Macron also spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on telephone on September 21.[10] They reaffirmed a commitment to act jointly in an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific, including in the framework of the Europe-India relationship and European initiatives in the Indo-Pacific. Both leaders expressed concerns about the situation in Afghanistan, and urged the new authorities in Kabul to sever ties with international terrorism, permit humanitarian bodies to operate throughout the country, respect the fundamental rights of Afghan women and men, and permit evacuation operations to continue unhindered.

QUAD 

The burning question, after the AUKUS emerged as potentially the world’s most powerful military bloc, is how will it complement the Quad? The Quad members resent China’s claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea, but have articulated a broad social agenda and shied away from being perceived as an “Asian NATO”. As India is the only member sharing a large land border with China, the advent of AUKUS has spared New Delhi from being “driven” into military confrontation outside its comfort zone. India’s goals are to protect its northern frontiers and the Indian Ocean Sea lanes.

Indian foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla explained that the Quad is a “plurilateral grouping of countries with a shared vision of their attributes and values,” while the AUKUS is a trilateral security alliance.[11] Shringla said there is no link between the Quad and the Malabar naval exercise conducted by the navies of India, US and Japan, which Australia joined for the second consecutive year in 2021. However, the Quad agenda includes counterterrorism exercises and could include Quad-plus exercises such as the French-led La Perouse exercise in the Bay of Bengal in early 2021.

As the AUKUS and Quad summits were hosted simultaneously by President Biden, the Australian Prime Minister brought his intelligence chiefs for additional heft: Andrew Shearer (director general, Office of National Intelligence); Rachel Noble (head of Australian Signals Directorate); Mike Burgess (ASIO chief); and Paul Symon (chief of overseas spy network, Australian Secret Intelligence Service). They interacted with their counterparts from India and Japan during the Quad dialogue.

The Biden Administration had hosted the first-ever virtual summit of leaders in March 2021, and on September 24, it hosted the first in-person summit, attended by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.[12] The Quad identified several areas of co-operation, notably COVID and Global Health (including delivering free vaccines in the Indo-Pacific); Infrastructure; Climate (including a Clean-Hydrogen Partnership); Critical and Emerging Technologies (including a Semiconductor Supply Chain Initiative; 5G Deployment and Diversification; Biotechnology Scanning); Cybersecurity (including sharing Satellite Data to Protect the Earth and its Waters); and People-to-People Exchange and Education (including a Quad Fellowship to nurture next-generation talent in all countries in the STEM fields).

The members observed that Beijing achieves supremacy by controlling technologies, building infrastructure and creating dependencies by encouraging debt. They proposed providing reliable alternatives to China’s BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) by building better infrastructure, ensuring equitable growth, fighting climate change and controlling pandemics. Offering infrastructure could meet a felt need of developing countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Since 2015, the member countries have collectively delivered thousands of projects and over US$ 48 billion in official finance for infrastructure in the region.

The Coronavirus pandemic revived the altruistic spirit and Quad pledged to provide 1.2 billion Covid vaccine doses in the Indo-Pacific by 2022, in addition to doses financed through COVAX, India’s decision to resume export of Covid-19 vaccines, including to COVAX, beginning October 2021, was acclaimed widely.[13] A Quad-Plus group has been formed with New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam, to coordinate responses to the pandemic.

The meeting highlighted the security threats posed by China and Pakistan, and the need to monitor Pakistan’s ambitions in Afghanistan by ensuring that UN Security Council resolution 2593, passed in August under India’s presidency, is upheld. It urged that Afghan territory should not be used to shelter or train terrorists. The joint statement denounced “the use of terrorist proxies” (Pakistan-sponsored) and called for “denying any logistical, financial or military support to terrorist groups which could be used to launch or plan terror attacks, including cross-border attacks”.[14]

SCO

On 17 September 2021, Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon hosted the 21st meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in hybrid format. Prime Minister Modi, who attended virtually, highlighted the dangers of growing radicalisation and extremism in the broader SCO region and proposed that SCO consider working to promote moderation and scientific and rational thought with the region’s youth.[15] The SCO Summit was followed by an outreach session on Afghanistan between SCO and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). In his message, Modi suggested that SCO develop a code of ‘zero tolerance’ towards terrorism in the region, and highlighted the risks of drugs, arms and human trafficking from Afghanistan.[16]

Iran entered the SCO as a full-fledged member. President Ebrahim Raisi expressed Iran’s desire to expand ties with countries in Central and East Asia.[17] He said Iran brings major geopolitical advantages to the group, including its large population, abundant mineral wealth and strategic location in the Middle East. China is keen to expand its BRI westward. Russian President Vladimir Putin observed that the MoU between the SCO Secretariat and Eurasian Economic Commission will further Russia’s idea of a Greater Eurasia Partnership covering the SCO, the Eurasian Economic Union, Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the BRI.

After the Quad summit, some analysts suggested that India align completely with the United States and withdraw from the SCO. This is unwarranted as India straddles two tumultuous regions: Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. It faces strategic and security challenges in Eurasia and needs the Indo-Pacific for trade. India’s main security concern is terrorism and Washington’s ability to restrain terrorist militias in Pakistan and Afghanistan has declined sharply. A favourable development is that Moscow and Beijing are also threatened by terror outfits in the Af-Pak region (IS-K, Al Qaeda, ETIM etc.)

The SCO is an Eurasian political, economic and security alliance, including three-fifths of the Eurasian landmass, 40 per cent of world population and over 20 per cent of global GDP. It promotes trade, cultural and humanitarian cooperation among its members and espouses a multipolar world order and adherence to the principles enshrined in the UN Charter. There is little merit in exiting this organisation. India is not an island, but a major Asian nation linked with the Eurasian landmass. It needs the goodwill of land neighbours to mitigate the challenges it faces. Currently, and in the foreseeable future, it faces no major threat in the IOR and thus should not lose the leverage afforded by a land-based fraternity. However, amidst fast-changing regional dynamics, India may benefit by focusing on strategic autonomy and Asian centrality. As great powers converge on the Indo-Pacific, it must concentrate on its neighbourhood while minding its strategic interests in Eurasia and the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

AFGHANISTAN AND TALIBAN 2.0

The assumption that some countries would be friendly towards the Taliban proved premature; at the time of writing even Islamabad had not recognised the new regime in Kabul. Iran refused recognition after the Taliban failed to form an inclusive government and its shabby treatment of (Shia) Tajiks and Hazaras. Ankara followed, angry at the exclusion of Turkmen (Turkish-speakers) in the cabinet. But the more serious problem is the surfacing of deep schisms within the Taliban barely a fortnight after its victory, which put a question mark on the regime’s longevity.

The Durand Line drawn by the British in 1893 and inherited by Pakistan in 1947, which divided the Pashtun community and was disowned by successive Afghanistan governments, is currently dividing the ‘moderates’ (Doha group) and ‘hardliners’ (Haqqani Network). The ‘moderates’ led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar favour inclusion of all ethnic groups and women in the cabinet so that the regime gains international approval; they oppose the Durand Line. The Haqqani Network that dominates the government, however, wishes to recognise the Durand Line in gratitude for Pakistan protecting and nurturing the group during the two decades of American occupation.

Differences erupted on September 3, 2021, with reports of fisticuffs between Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and a cabinet minister, and injuries on both sides as their respective followers opened fire. Reports of the incident and possible death of Baradar were strenuously denied even as Inter-Services Intelligence chief, Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, rushed to Kabul on September 4 to help finalise the cabinet and entrench the Haqqani Network. Mullah Baradar disappeared from public view, surfacing only on September 13 in an audio clip claiming he was well. Later, in an interview to the state-run television, Baradar said he was travelling and denied any discord. In reply to a question, he said he could not meet Qatar foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani on September 12 as he did not know that Al-Thani was coming!

However, on September 15, BBC reported that there were heated exchanges between Deputy Prime Minister Baradar and Minister for Refugees Khalil ur-Rahman Haqqani at the presidential palace. The disputes centred on cabinet formation and who should take credit for the victory in Afghanistan. As it was a smooth takeover, Baradar felt credit was due to the diplomacy of the Doha group; the Haqqani group disagreed.[18] After the fight, Baradar reportedly went to Kandahar to confer with Haibatullah Akhundzada, Amir of the Emirate. Here again, mystery persists as the supreme leader has not been seen in public for over two years, not even after returning to Kandahar after the Taliban victory.

Kabul is also grappling with a financial crisis as Washington froze over US$ 9 billion in funds held in the US Federal Reserve after the Taliban took over the country. In August 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) froze over US$ 440 million in aid (due August 23, 2021) and blocked access to Special Drawing Rights assets that can be converted to government-backed money, due to “lack of clarity within the international community” over recognising a government in Afghanistan.[19] Soon, the World Bank suspended funding for projects in Afghanistan and the independent money transfer company, Western Union, suspended services to Afghanistan.

Lacking the financial resources to help the Taliban regime, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi visited several countries to garner support for Afghanistan. So far, Pakistan and Qatar have sent humanitarian aid (food and medicine) and China has pledged a minuscule US$ 31 million in aid. Pakistan National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf warned that the world faces the spectre of refugees, drugs, weapons, and transnational terrorism from a destabilised Afghanistan. Conceding that Taliban leaders need to govern Afghanistan more inclusively, he pleaded that the international community create a “conducive environment” or Pakistan would be left to “bear the brunt of any negative spillover from Afghanistan”.[20]

It is pertinent that the Taliban removed Uyghur freedom fighters from Afghanistan’s border with China. Unsurprisingly, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid stated, “China is our most important partner … [We] care a lot about the Belt and Road project…We own rich copper mines, which, thanks to the Chinese, will be modernised. Finally, China represents our ticket to the markets around the world”.[21] Scholar Andrew Small, however, believes that Beijing may make some modest investments, but longer-term investments would depend on there being enough stability and security to make them viable.

The financial crisis is severe; there are reports that Taliban fighters are pressing local people for money to buy fuel and food, even seizing food from people in Kunduz, Badakhshan, Takhar, Baghlan, Kapisa and Ghazni provinces. The Taliban is unable to pay its fighters in the provinces or salaries to public servants, or even settle import tariffs on containers of food that have arrived at Karachi port. Yet, it is adamant not to allow women and girls to return to their jobs and schools so that the country can receive international aid.

Taliban brutalities have sent waves of panic across the country. Despite formal promises of amnesty for those who served the previous regime, members of the Afghan diaspora are reporting revenge killings.[22] In several provinces, former officers of the Special Forces and women employees of the previous government have been killed at home, in front of their families. At times, family members were also murdered. The killings are filmed and sent to commanders in Arg.

On September 24, Taliban fighters forced 482 Hazara families to leave their homes in Gizab, Daikundi province, and bombed the houses when the families resisted. The people say this is “ethnic cleansing”. On October 10, journalists reported that a Taliban court gave 2000 Hazara families in the fifth district of Mazar city, Balkh province, three days to evacuate their homes.

A Shia Mosque bombed in Kunduz during Friday prayers on October 8 killed over 70 persons and injuring nearly 150; Islamic State-Khorasan claimed responsibility. On October 9, the fourth mass grave was found in Rokha district of Panjshir; all bodies had hands tied behind their backs. Unfazed by the rising sense of horror in the international community, Taliban co-founder Mullah Nooruddin Turabi told Associated Press that they will restore punishments such as executions and amputation of hands, though perhaps not in public. He said, “No one will tell us what our laws should be. We will follow Islam and we will make our laws on the Quran.”

On October 15, the Islamic State attacked another Shia Mosque in Kandahar, causing heavy casualties that had not been counted at the time of writing.[23] Within hours of the attack came reports that Fatemiyoun (Fatimid Division) of Afghan Shia Hazara fighters, trained by late Gen Soleimani to fight Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, were returning from Syria. Some had returned in June after IS was marginalised. The development could make Iran a regional stakeholder in Afghanistan.

Impact in Pakistan

Pakistan soon witnessed violence in North and South Waziristan districts that impacted business and trade as the militants indulge in extortion and kill those who do not or cannot pay. The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in Quetta, Baluchistan that took many lives. Emboldened by the rise of Taliban in Afghanistan, the TTP is promising to bring Sharia to Pakistan, causing concern in Islamabad.[24]

The October 1 ceasefire between Islamabad and the TTP collapsed almost immediately as the TTP hit a military vehicle in Spinwam, North Waziristan, killing five Frontier Corps soldiers on October 2. On October 4, TTP claimed to have killed two Pakistani soldiers in Ghariom Tehsil, North Waziristan. Further, reports suggest that East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and TTP were behind the Dasu terror attack that killed nine Chinese on July 14, 2021, and the August 20 attack by a suicide bomber on Gwadar East Bay expressway project, killing two Pakistanis and injuring three persons, including a Chinese national. More significantly, Islamic State-Khorasan and al Qaeda are operating independently after their cadres were released from Afghan prisons in August. The IS-K was behind the terror attack on Kabul Airport on August 26, while the United States was evacuating its embassy staff and allies; it aimed at undermining the Taliban.[25] The TTP reportedly receives ideological guidance from al-Qaeda and funds from Islamic State.

Anti-Taliban resistance

Military experts say the National Resistance Front (NRF) led by Ahmad Massoud, former vice president Amrullah Saleh and former minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi needs to recapture Badakshan province to link Tajikistan and Panjshir, in order to have a winning chance. It is pertinent that as Washington was planning its final withdrawal, the Taliban employed a sophisticated drone unit to assassinate Piram Qul, an ethnic Uzbek warlord and veteran of the anti-Soviet war in the 1980s.[26] Qul joined many anti-Taliban Afghan factions, including Ahmed Shah Massoud’s Jamiati-i-Islami; his stronghold was in Takhar province on the Tajikistan border. He was assassinated on May 2, 2021, after which the Taliban moved against Atta Muhammad Noor (Ustad Atta), a powerful ethnic Tajik, former governor of Balkh province and overlord of the city of Mazar-e-Sharif. His home was attacked on July 1, when he was hosting a meeting with other warlords and politicians.[27] Though Atta escaped unhurt, he disappeared by the time the Taliban captured Mazar-e-Sharif on August 14.

However, a section of the Afghan army fled to Uzbekistan when the Taliban approached Kabul.[28] As the Taliban fails to provide food, water, medicines and economic security, and IS-K and/or al Qaeda operate in the country, Moscow may be forced to allow an anti-Taliban force to support the Panjshir Resistance from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Russia could underwrite the security of both nations via the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). New Delhi could offer passive support as it fears that Taliban rule could inspire radical Sunni fighters in Kashmir.

International Diplomacy

The annual meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), scheduled for September, was cancelled by the foreign ministers’ meeting (September 23, 2021) after Islamabad insisted on including the Taliban regime that has not been recognised by the international community.[29]

The British representative for Afghan transition, Simon Gass, met with Taliban leaders, including acting Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Baradar and Abdul Salam Hanafi of Taliban’s political office in Qatar, on October 5, to discuss aid to mitigate Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis.[30] Gass stressed the importance of preventing Afghanistan from becoming an incubator for terrorism, and the need for continued safe passage for those wanting to leave the country. He raised the issue of treatment of minorities and the rights of women and girls.

Russia has invited Taliban representatives to join international talks on Afghanistan in Moscow on October 20, which India has agreed to join.[31] A US delegation met with Taliban representatives in Doha on October 9 and 10, 2021.[32]The State Department spokesperson Ned Price stated that the US delegation focused on security and terrorism concerns and safe passage for US citizens, other foreign nationals and America’s Afghan partners, besides human rights, and the participation of women and girls in society. The US expressed a desire to provide humanitarian assistance directly to the Afghan people.

 

Author Brief Bio: Sandhya Jain is a political analyst, independent researcher, and author of multiple books. She is also editor of the platform Vijayvaani

References

[1]https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/09/15/remarks-by-president-biden-prime-minister-morrison-of-australia-and-prime-minister-johnson-of-the-united-kingdom-announcing-the-creation-of-aukus/

[2] AFP, Australian nuclear submarines will be banned from New Zealand waters, Sep 16, 2021.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1234494.shtml

[3] RFA, Philippines Throws Support Behind AUKUS Pact, 19 September 2021.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/pact-09212021152655.html

[4] OPEN magazine, The Middle Path, Ram Madhav  | 29 Sep, 2021.

https://openthemagazine.com/columns/the-middle-path/

[5] Voltaire Network, The AUKUS preparing a nuclear war to sustain Taiwan, Thierry Meyssan, Sep 23, 2021.

https://www.voltairenet.org/article214159.html

[6] India Narrative, US, UK equipping Australia with nuclear submarines as AUKUS alliance is born to counter China, Sep 16, 2021.

https://www.indianarrative.com/world-news/us-uk-equipping-australia-with-nuclear-submarines-as-aukus-alliance-is-born-to-counter-china-115096.html

[7] BBC, Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou freed by Canada arrives home in China, Sep 25, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58690974

[8] Reuters, China applies to join Pacific trade pact to boost economic clout, Sep 17, 2021.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-officially-applies-join-cptpp-trade-pact-2021-09-16/

[9] CNN, Biden holds first call with French President Macron since diplomatic crisis erupted, Sep 22, 2021.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/22/politics/macron-biden-call/index.html

[10] India Today, PM Modi, French President Macron discuss bilateral collaboration in Indo-Pacific region, Afghanistan situation. Sep 21, 2021.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pm-modi-french-president-macron-indo-pacific-cooperation-afghanistan-situation-1855403-2021-09-21

[11] NDTV, Quad To Remain Unaffected By Australia-UK-US Alliance: Foreign Secretary Sep 21, 2021.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/aukus-to-have-no-effect-on-quad-functioning-malabar-exercise-not-linked-quad-says-india-2548722

[12] Economic Times, The ‘Quad’ meets in the White House as China looks warily on, Sep 27, 2021.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/the-quad-meets-in-the-white-house-as-china-looks-warily-on/articleshow/86490903.cms?from=mdr

[13] India Today, India’s decision to resume export of Covid-19 vaccines, Sep 25, 2021.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/quad-leaders-welcome-india-decision-to-resume-export-of-covid-vaccines-1857051-2021-09-25

[14] Joint Statement from Quad Leaders, Sep 24, 2021.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/24/joint-statement-from-quad-leaders/

[15] PIB, Prime Minister virtually participates in 21st Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, Sep 17, 2021. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1755831

[16] The Hindustan Times, Global community must ensure Afghan soil is not used for terrorism: Modi at SCO-CSTO meet, Sep 17, 2021.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/global-community-must-ensure-afghan-soil-is-not-used-for-terrorism-modi-at-sco-csto-meet-101631889445538.html

[17] RepublicWorld, Iran’s President Raisi Calls For Enhancing Economic Ties With SCO Members In Tajikistan, Sep 17, 2021. https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/middle-east/irans-president-raisi-calls-for-enhancing-economic-ties-with-sco-members-in-tajikistan.html

[18] BBC, Afghanistan: Taliban leaders in bust-up at presidential palace, sources say, Sep 15, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58560923

[19] BBC, IMF suspends Afghanistan’s access to funds, August 19, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58263525#:~:text=The%20International%20Monetary%20Fund%20(IMF,of%20the%20country%20last%20weekend.

[20] The Hindu, Pakistan can’t accept more Afghan refugees, says NSA, Sep 16, 2021.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-cant-accept-more-afghan-refugees-says-nsa/article36488367.ece

[21] LiveMint, China is our most important partner, say Taliban, Sep 3, 2021.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/china-is-our-most-important-partner-say-taliban-11630662700353.html

[22] BBC, Afghanistan crisis: Taliban kill civilians in resistance stronghold, Sep 13, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58545892

[23] The Guardian, Heavy casualties’ as explosion hits Shia mosque in Afghanistan, October 15, 2021.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/15/casualties-explosion-hits-shia-mosque-afghanistan

[24] BBC Urdu, Violence surges in Pakistan’s tribal belt as Taliban, IS-K go on attack, October 14, 2021.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58891613

[25] Scroll.in, ISIS-K: The group behind the Kabul airport attack sees the Afghan Taliban as a strategic rival, Aug 27, 2021.

https://scroll.in/article/1003882/isis-k-the-group-behind-the-kabul-airport-attack-sees-the-afghan-taliban-as-its-strategic-rival

[26] Newlines magazine, The Drone Unit that Helped the Taliban Win the War, Sep 15, 2021.

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-drone-unit-that-helped-the-taliban-win-the-war/

[27] Tolonews, Mortar Hits Residence of Atta Noor, Ex-Balkh Governor, July 1, 2021.

https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-173229

[28] Reuters, Uzbekistan says hundreds of Afghan soldiers flee over border with dozens of aircraft, August 16, 2021.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/uzbekistan-says-hundreds-afghan-soldiers-flee-over-border-with-dozens-aircraft-2021-08-16/

[29] Outlook, SAARC Summit Stands Cancelled As Pakistan Insists On Taliban’s Participation, Sep 22, 2021.

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-saarc-foreign-ministers-meeting-scheduled-to-be-held-on-unga-sidelines-cancelled-sources/395354

[30] Aljazeera, British PM’s envoy holds talks with Taliban in Afghanistan, Oct 5, 2021.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/5/british-pms-envoy-holds-talks-with-taliban-in-afghanistan

[31] Indian Express, India accepts Russia’s invite for talks with Taliban next week: Oct 15, 2021.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-accepts-russias-invite-for-talks-with-taliban-next-week-7572359/

[32] U.S. Delegation Meeting with Senior Taliban Representatives in Doha, Oct 10, 2021.

https://www.state.gov/u-s-delegation-meeting-with-senior-taliban-representatives-in-doha/

Non-State Actors and the Emerging Security Challenges – Islamic State of Khorasan in Perspective

Introduction

With the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan the entire geo-strategic environment in greater South Asia has taken a turn for the worse. The Taliban’s ascent to power poses reconfiguration of the strategic dynamics in the region. Contrary to the general perception, it is not the Taliban that would be the net contributor to the security volatility in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Currently there are close to a dozen radical Islamic non-state outfits operating in Afghanistan. However, the most powerful and dreaded of them happen to be the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K). The radical intervention of the IS-K, in the region’s geopolitical affairs, can be deeply problematic.

This essay has four key objectives. First, it argues why failures in governance leads to that political entity becoming an attractive haven for non-state actors such as terrorist outfits. It does so by introducing the theory of state failure to explain this phenomenon. While staying on that theme, it suggests, how a collapsed state, such as Afghanistan under the Taliban, lacking recognition (both internal and external) has become the preferred destination for many non-state actors with ambitions of undermining regional stability.

Second, while staying on the topic of non-state actors it examines the ideological and strategic characters of the Islamic State in general and IS-K in particular. Third, it suggests why the Taliban and the IS-K having their origins in the same religion and a shared radical outlook find themselves in the opposite sides of the ring. Fourth, the essay maps out the future security challenges emanating from the IS-K beyond Afghanistan.

In the conclusion, this essay proposes, that given this all-encompassing threat, the states in the region will do well by shifting their focus from the traditional inter-state conflict dynamics and devote their energy and resource to tackling the growing menace of IS-K.

State Collapse

Afghanistan, prior to the Taliban takeover on 15 August 2021, was a failed state. However, given the manner of their ascent to power, the country’s subsequent isolation from the international community precipitated the state failure leading to a state collapse.

According to realist international relations theory, viable states are characterised by high degrees of socio-political cohesion. They also possess the ability to respond to the citizens’ everyday needs on a continual basis. These attributes allow them to withstand all manners of security challenges. A weak, failing and collapsed state, by contrast, is one that not only lacks internal socio-political cohesion but are incapable of addressing the multi-dimensional security needs of its citizenry. These weak, failing or collapsed states, as Barry Buzan puts it, exist in a “condition of effective civil war which mirrors all the worst and none of the best features of viable states (Buzan, 1991: 100-101).

Weak, failing or a collapsed states are plagued by several security deficiencies. They face fundamental existential challenges emanating from ethnic, tribal, cultural, religious contestations leading to social fragmentation along those lines. Such internal divisive dynamics severely undermine the effective functioning of the state and in turn create security and strategic nightmares for that country and those adjacent to it.

States are the fundamental units of the international system and are responsible for maintaining both order and justice within their defined borders and behave as responsible members of the global community (Misra, 2004: 11). A collapsed state, by contrast is one which not only lacks legitimacy within but is also shunned by the international community. Lacking respectability at home and abroad, it soon fails to live up to its fundamental role of addressing the question of internal order and international personality.

Compared to a ‘viable state’ a ‘collapsed state’ is often at a disadvantage when it comes to defending itself from corrupt and destabilising forces or ideas (Misra, 2004: 9). Stripped bare of resources to maintain the process of governance and existing on the margins of international society as pariahs, owing to the lack of legal recognition, collapsed states are vulnerable to invidious external influences and intervention by non-state actors. Owing to this existential vacuum for the regime, many competing and contending non-state actors flock to the borders of this collapsed state to act out their own religious and political vision.

Collapsed states are a calamitous challenge for their citizenry and neighbours. Without a legally recognised government, the citizens in a collapsed state are more likely to come under the influence of radical non-state actors and their spurious ideologies. Since the authority of the central government is contested, many anti-state actors can take advantage of the prevailing chaos and enlist supporters to undermine the authority of the regime and freely export their own spurious ideologies.

For Robert I. Rotberg, an early proponent of the theory of state collapse, a collapsed state is characterised by “tense, deeply conflicted, dangerous, and contested bitterly by warring factions. In most failed states, government troops battle armed revolts led by one or more rivals. Occasionally, the official authorities in a failed state face two or more insurgencies, varieties of civil unrest, different degrees of communal discontent, and a plethora of dissent directed at the state and at groups within the state (Rotberg, 2003: 5). The prevalent atmosphere in Afghanistan under the Taliban easily fits the definition of a collapsed state as spelt out by Rotberg’s study.

The Taliban are painfully conscious of the fact that they have inherited a dysfunctional economy, a fearful citizenry, a civil society in flight, a near-total absence of foreign reserves, a hostile international system, and ambiguous external supporters and partners. To make matters worse, Afghanistan, under the previous government, was dependent on external aid to cover 75 percent of its budget. The Afghan economy is already in a free fall with a tumbling national currency and a deep financial crisis. Under the circumstances, Afghanistan fast slid into a state collapse whereby the regime failed to address both the human security as well as material security needs of its citizenry.

A violent cartographic vision

The elephant in the room, of course, is IS-K. Before we consign Afghanistan and the region to its vortex of violence, it would be worth asking what the nature and character of this outfit is. What does it stand for? What makes it different from another terror organisation such as the Taliban?

IS-K was set up in January 2015 at the height of IS’s power in Iraq and Syria, before its self-declared caliphate was defeated and dismantled by a US-led coalition (Gardner, 2021). In IS geopolitics, the physical space of occupied Syria and Iraq is the heartland of the end of the world of Islam. Its eastward flank constitutes the Islamic State of Khorasan / IS-K (Giustozzi, 2018). The Islamic State announced its expansion to the Khorasan region in 2015, which historically encompasses parts of modern-day Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The eastern territorial flanks dominated by the Muslims came to be known as the Khorasan province that necessitated taking over by IS faithful and soldiers. With that objective in mind, the IS had announced its expansion into the Khorasan region way back in 2015. Historically, the region encompassed parts of modern-day Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While the original Islamic State (IS) was decimated through the armed campaigns by the U.S. and a host of international actors in 2019, it managed to permeate its cartographic and strategic vision among those who subscribed to its ideology long before its demise. According to the geopolitical vision prior to its decimation, the landmass of Iraq and Syria constituted the heartland of Islam (Misra, 2015). Once displaced, plenty of ISIL fighters escaped to the chaotic landscape of Pakistan and Afghanistan, the eastern arm of their prophetic land. Once in this terrain, they have been responsible for internecine turf war with other established militant groups in the region – including the Taliban – and have unleashed their terror on both non-combatant and military targets. While the coalition forces have come under their attack in over hundreds of occasions, it is the civilian populace that have borne the brunt of their violence. IS-K has been responsible for killing innocent civilians, nurses, doctors, pregnant women and children.

In the latest of its attacks, it killed nearly two hundred people near Kabul airport which included 13 U.S. servicemen. Ever since, they have been on a killing spree across Afghanistan – mostly targeting minority Shia community members and other Taliban interests. Ousted from Syria and Iraq, the IS is in desperate search for a homeland. The crises in Afghanistan with a Muslim populace suits its core objective of using it as its base. Since the IS-K has to establish a safe haven for itself in areas of Afghanistan that the Taliban have been controlling for some time, and the Taliban have not agreed to share space with this emerging competitor, there have been these sporadic clashes between the two (Guistozzi, 2001).

The core differences

According to some analysts, the global Islamic State movement is also now depicting Afghanistan as the epicentre of its ideological struggle. The group’s main propaganda organs have trumpeted the successes of its Afghan affiliate, describing the anti-Taliban campaign in an official statement as a “new stage in the blessed jihad” (George,Warrick & DeYoung, 2021). It is worth mentioning, that the Taliban have fought with the IS(K) since its emergence in 2015. During the U.S. and NATO mission in Afghanistan both the groups fought against the external forces as well as against each other. IS-K and the Taliban have been locked in bloody battles with one another for some time.

In recent months, the Taliban has intercepted and killed several IS assassins across Afghanistan. But why this armed encounter between two radical Islamic militant outfits? One is, of course, perturbed by the fact that if both were fighting against the external occupation of Afghanistan, why were they not partners? Why do IS-K and the Taliban clash as militant organisations? To answer these questions, we need to examine the core ideological and political difference that exists between the two. As Frank Gardner, BBC’s long-term security correspondent argues, IS-K have major differences with the Taliban, accusing them of abandoning Jihad and the battlefield in favour of a negotiated peace settlement hammered out in “posh hotels” in Doha, Qatar. Similarly, IS-K considers Taliban militants “apostates,” making their killing lawful under their interpretation of Islamic law (Gardner, 2021).

In terms of its ideological and strategic rivalry, the IS-K hates the Taliban as much as the West (The Economist, 2021). According to a Deutsche Welle analysis, “an ideological gulf separates the two militant groups. While the IS belongs to the Salafist movement of Islam; the Taliban adhere to the Deobandi school (DW, 2021).

This is substantiated by several critics. According to a contemporary observer of IS, Afzal Ashraf.

While the Taliban seems content — at least for now — with an emirate for themselves within Afghanistan, the Islamic State group in Afghanistan and Pakistan strives to establish a caliphate throughout South and Central Asia and has also embraced the Islamic State’s call for a worldwide jihad against non-Muslims (Ashraf, DW, 2021).

With that objective in view, it has established parallel government structures and cells across Afghanistan. This strategy was revealed upon the Taliban’s killing of IS(K)’s shadow governor in the Nangarhar province in mid-October 2021. One might ask what objection the IS(K) should have when there is a fellow Islamic regime is in power in Afghanistan? IS-K views the Afghan Taliban both as its strategic rival in a saturated militant landscape, and as an ideological opponent (Jadoon, Mines & Sayed, 2021). Furthermore, IS-K smears the Taliban’s efforts to form an emirate based on national boundaries, which is directly opposed to the Islamic State’s vision of a global caliphate (Jadoon, Mines & Sayed, 2021).

Apart from the larger geopolitical objective of creating a larger Islamic umma across the Muslim world in the Middle East and South and Central Asia, IS also has its specific take on a rule-based Islamic legal governance. Its gripe with the Taliban stems from the fact that the latter is not interpreting and following an orthodox Sharia law. “For IS-K, the Taliban’s views are not strict enough. IS fighters have called the Taliban apostates and bad Muslims because of their willingness to negotiate a peace deal with the United States. By doing so, they betrayed the goals of the jihad, IS fighters said (DW, 2021).”

According to its original ideological precept, to rid the Islamic world of adversaries who do not follow “true” Islamic principles necessitates an epic military engagement. But to engage its foes in this grand war, IS needs to take the combat to them. It knows that attacking its foes on their own turf will force them to join its cause (Misra, 2015). This might explain the IS-K’s terror engagement with another terror outfit such as the Taliban. Furthermore, IS-K’s activism in the region is linked to the question of its very survival. After having been routed in Iraq and Syria, the group is in desperate need to find a host geography from where to operate. As Graeme Wood in his engaging essay on the Islamic State has very eloquently put it: “Caliphates cannot exist as underground movements, because territorial authority is a requirement: take away its command of territory, and all those oaths of allegiance are no longer binding” (Wood, 2015).

Given Af-Pak regions porous ethno-geographical borders and a relatively receptive audience, the group rightly believes the region offers the best striking chance to regroup, return to its activism and establish a new homeland for its ideology and governance. The IS-K’s moves in this regard is a strategic shift borne out of pure necessity. It rightly feels the Taliban and the Pakistani state cannot compete with it, either in terms of its specific brand of violence or building an oppositional consensus based on a specific borderless Islamic worldview. That being the objective, it is likely to up the ante.

In terms of strategic parity, there is a lot of difference between the Taliban and the IS-K. While the Taliban is in possession of a state, the IS-K remains stateless. Similarly, while the Taliban is playing to assume the identity of a legitimate government, the IS-K will forever remain a terrorist front. Added to that is the issue of military equivalence between the two.  “The Islamic State has far fewer fighters in Afghanistan than the Taliban — roughly 2,000 according to the latest United Nations estimate, compared to Taliban ranks estimated at more than 70,000 — but many fear it could grow if the Taliban fractures or if disaffected Taliban members seeking a return to the battlefield peel off to join other groups” (George,Warrick & DeYoung, 2021).

This inherent strategic imbalance, however, is unlikely to deter IS-K from undertaking larger and bolder terror objectives.  The group and its sleeper cells are also emboldened by the fact that they represent a strand within Afghanistan-Pakistan region who are receptive to a radical Islamic politics but do not necessarily identify with the Taliban’s core ideology.

Terrorists against a terrorist regime

The linkage between state collapse and terrorism is conclusively established by several different academic and policy studies (Zartman, 1995; Rotberg, 2003; Misra, 2004; Fukuyama, 2006). In fact, one of the key indicators of state collapse is the growth of criminal violence in the country under review (Rotberg, 2003: 5).

Afghanistan under the Taliban is experiencing prolonged encounters with non-state terrorists, growing threat of radicalisation, violent sectarianism and cross-border terrorist infiltration. Paradoxical as it may seem, there are nearly half-a-dozen non-state terrorist outfits operating in the country whose key intention is to undermine the authority of the ruling regime and undermine the stability in the region. Prominent of these outfits with the most likely lethal power is the Islamic State of Khorasan (henceforth IS-K). The group has claimed responsibility for a spate of attacks on the Taliban interests and Afghan civilians killing hundreds in the process.

After orchestrating a swift control of Afghanistan in mid-August 2021, the Taliban were quick to declare their victory over their U.S. and NATO detractors. What they did not count on was the dissent and opposition within. “After taking over Afghanistan last month, the Taliban claimed that security “has been assured” and that the county was taken out of the “quagmire of war”. But a series of attacks carried out by an affiliate of the ISIL/ ISIS, the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K) group in recent weeks has shattered the claims of security (Haris & Latifi, 2021).

The Islamic State “has positioned Afghanistan as a foremost priority — both in terms of media and military activity — since the withdrawal of the U.S. and the Taliban’s subsequent takeover” (George,Warrick & DeYoung, 2021). Sworn rivals of the Taliban, the IS-K pose the biggest threat to Afghanistan and regional peace.

In Afghanistan, the IS-K has emerged as “the most significant threat to the Taliban’s dominion as well as to public safety. So far, the Taliban has failed to contain the terrorists, who have staged numerous attacks (Raghavan, 2021).” Although the Taliban have expressed in the past their commitment to an Afghanistan where the country’s territory cannot be used by other non-state actors for their own ideological cause (Misra, 2021), given their tenuous hold over the country they are unlikely to be in a position to thwart the IS-K threat. The entire IS-K initiative is of extreme concern to the ruling regime in Kabul. Whether the new regime is going to be primarily Pashtun-led, a government of national unity, an inclusive political formation or an extremely conservative one, irrespective of the nature and character this new government, the challenges it is likely to face from the IS-K can be debilitating.

Should the IS-K cells and operatives decide to rupture the Taliban’s authority, the latter cannot maintain its sovereignty effectively. There are two reasons why the new regime will find it hard to address the challenges coming from these operatives. First, the members belonging to this outfit in the country are not necessarily Arabs – to whom IS ideology is originally attributed to. Most of IS-K members are indigenous Afghans who may be outwardly sympathetic to the Taliban but could be maintaining a hard-line position in private. They are not necessarily bought over by the current regimes ideological disposition and outlook on governance.

IS-K has the capacity to easily blend into the mainstream and attack the interests of the Afghan state with relative ease. It is this inability to distinguish and differentiate them from the rest which would prove extremely challenging to the regime – should it decide to weed them out at some point. If it does try to confront IS-K in the home territory, then, the regime stands being exposed to violent surprise attacks in every possible context and scenario. Pursuing a live and let live policy is not going to be of any help to the Taliban either. Turning a blind eye to their militancy stands capsizing the very effectiveness of the Taliban’s core ideology, governance and ultimately regime survival.

If events on the ground are anything to go by, it amply proves that Afghanistan will remain the playground of various radical Islamic outfits. That its future is going to be mired by bouts of sectarian violence is proved by the indiscriminate suicide bomb attacks by IS-K and perhaps many other radical outfits. These gory events demonstrate the fact that the regime is incapable of addressing these threats. Present day Afghanistan is a country rife with suicide bombings and empty of liveable opportunities. With al Qaeda sleeper cells operating throughout the country, the IS-K intermittent bombings, and the neighbouring Uighur radical Islamic incursion, in all likelihood Afghanistan will slide back into a terrorist safe haven fairly soon.

Proliferation of IS-K radicalism

The Af-Pak areas have been plagued by the perennial problem of lack of credible government presence. The area has lacked enough government both visible and invisible to enforce law. As the state has remained weak in the periphery and at times non-existent, it has remained in the grip of non-state violence.

IS-K is “a complex and fluid amalgam of extremist ideologies and actors. Its reach is spilling over from its traditional stronghold in Nangarhar and risks inflaming sectarian fissures as far afield as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, China, and India” (Muggah & Rohozinski, 2021). What is, at the moment, a small but highly active offensive against the Taliban-led government, the IS-K dynamics of insurgent violence is likely to spread to the rest of Afghanistan and the region. Unlike the Taliban, which has its focus on Afghanistan, IS-K exhibits regional and millenarian ambitions such as uniting Muslims across South Asia, Central Asia and beyond (Muggah & Rohozinski, 2021). Given that Pakistan is imploding with the rise of several hard-line radical religio-political movements, it is a matter of time before the IS-K finds a favourable condition to spread its mayhem into the neighbouring areas.

The gravity of IS-K threat is well appreciated in the upper echelons of military circles in Pakistan. Despite Pakistan having a history of hobnobbing with various terrorist outfits, for the better part of its career as a newly independent country, there is reckoning among the military as well as political leadership in the country, that they can ill afford the rise of a violent militant outfit such as IS-K which seeks to undermine the very basis of nation-state. In its bid to stem the rising tide of IS-K, the government in Islamabad has undertaken several concrete steps. Principal among these is relaying “raw information as well as helping the Taliban to monitor phone and Internet communication to identify IS-K members and operational hubs” (George,Warrick & DeYoung, 2021).

Although neither a failing state like its immediate neighbour Pakistan, or a collapsed state like Afghanistan under the Taliban, India is nonetheless a vulnerable state when it comes to countering the influence and expansionism of IS-K.  India’s challenging internal religious make up and territorial insurgencies would prove a fertile ground for IS-K’s permeation. An ongoing Islamic insurgency in the restive union territory of Jammu and Kashmir can facilitate establishment of alliances between indigenous and external militants. New Delhi is intimately conscious of the likely impact of a violent IS-K uprising in Afghanistan. Already, security and intelligence agencies in India are bracing for armed attacks by the group in India’s troubled territory of Jammu and Kashmir (Sharma, 2021).

Added to that are the fears of IS-K inspired radicalisation in various pockets throughout India with known history of Islamic insurgency. Indian recruits have featured prominently in several recent IS terror undertakings. In the year 2020, while claiming responsibility for the Nangarhar jailbreak in eastern Afghanistan, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)’s propaganda wing released photographs of 11 attackers, including three Indian recruits from the south-eastern province of Kerala (Basit & Sinan Siyech, 2020). This attack came in the back of 25 March 2020 attack on a Sikh Gurudwara in Kabul by the IS-K which killed some 25 innocent civilians. According to the IS press release, following the incidence, one of four-member team that was behind this attack was an Indian (Dixit, 2020). Mohammed Mushin aka Abu Khalid al-Hindi who was a member of this team came from Kerala’s Kasargod district who had earlier joined the Islamic State.

That the IS and its eastern wing IS-K, is serious about promoting large-scale religious violence in India is proven by the fact that since February 2020, it is bringing out a monthly propaganda magazine called Voice of Hind, with exclusive coverage of events in India. Despite this outreach, critics have repeatedly argued that IS finding a sympathetic audience in India will be marginal. According to this view, “at its peak, IS successfully recruited over 40,000 supporters and sympathisers using the internet and social media platforms from 120 countries around the world. Yet Indians did not amount to more than 200 according to the most liberal figures (Basit & Sinan Siyech, 2020).

True, while IS recruiting drive among Indian Muslims may have been a lacklustre affair in the past, it is unlikely to remain so in the future. Indian radical Islamist’s participation in any future IS-K undertaking is likely to grow and consolidate. This is due to three key factors. First, the previous IS Caliphate undertaking was geographically in a faraway part of the world. This had limited resonance on the Indian sympathisers to the cause. A full-blown IS-K insurgency in Af-Pak region would prompt a sizeable number of participants from India to engage in its ideological and militant cause.

Second, as Raffaello Pantucci, Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) puts it, “India was the birthplace of the Deobandi movement, a sect that was a source of ideas for the Taliban, and the conflict in Kashmir has for years been a rallying cry for extremist groups” (Pantucci, 2020). Third, worryingly, Islamic State-Khorasan’s modest territorial footprint in Afghanistan and Pakistan is bolstered by a widening digital presence across Central and South Asia (Muggah, and Rohozinski, 2021). Simply put, despite having a robust governing structure, India is likely to fall prey to the IS-K terror cells owing to the above two reasons. Given various degrees of dissent among some Indian Muslims towards the state, the IS-K would reach out to this constituency, not only to stay relevant among a melee of various terror outfits operating in the region but also to rebuild its ranks.

Conclusion

The US and NATO troop withdrawal from the country has provided a “god-sent” opportunity to a whole host of violent jihadi groups whose primary objective is to ferment chaos and perpetuate anarchy. The battle between rival powers to gain strategic depth in the chaotic Afghanistan-Pakistan region is not a turf war between various state and non-state actors as many observers and analysts would like to point. It is a battle for the very political survival of many actors who have a stake in the larger geopolitical future in the region.

While the Taliban will be busy maintaining its control over the restive population of Afghanistan, there will be one or more key non-Taliban radical forces who would seek to undermine the security in the Af-Pak region and the greater South Asia. For the key actors in the region each will be driven by their own realpolitik concerns. Their respective conduct will be based more on practical rather than principled, moral, or even ideological considerations. Contrary to general strategic scripts, the Taliban has as much an interest in undermining the IS-K as other polities such as Pakistan and India. For the Taliban, reigning in the IS-K will be the very basis to its own political survival in the deeply divided fractious politics of Afghanistan.

It is bad news for everyone. The hardliner, the liberal the secular and the autocratic states are all going to face the heat when it comes to the rise and expansion of the IS-K. As for the regional actors, perhaps it is too early to send out torches and pitch forks to deal with the growing menace of IS-K. But it does not hurt to be prudent and follow a pragmatic policy of greater vigilance to address the likely security threat of this groups sympathisers and affiliates across the greater South Asian region.

Author Brief Bio : Prof Amalendu Misra, PhD, is a Professor of International Politics, Department of Politics, Philosophy & Religion at Lancaster University, United Kingdom. 

References

  1. Ashraf, Afzal (2021) ‘Terror in Afghanistan: Who is Islamic State Khorasan?’ Deutsche Welle (DW), 26 August.
  2. Basit, Abdul & Sinan Siyech, Mohammed (2020) ‘Islamic State’s India Dilemma: What does the Nangarhar jailbreak tell us about the terror group’s recruitment in India?’ The Diplomat, 26 August.
  3. Buzan, Barry (1991) People, State, and Fear: An Agenda for International Security Studies in the Post-Cold War Era, Hemel Hempstead: Harvester.
  4. Dixit, Rekha (2020) ‘Who is Mohammed Muhsin, the Indian suspect in attack on Sikh gurudwara in Afghanistan?’, The Week, 30 March.
  5. Ember, Carol R.& Ember, Melvin (1994) ‘War, Socialization & Interpersonal Violence’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 620-646.
  6. Fukuyama, Francis (2006) Nation-Building: Beyond Afghanistan and Iraq, Baltimore, MA: Johns Hopkins University Press.
  7. Gardner, Frank (2021) ‘Afghanistan: Who are Islamic State Khorasan Province militants?’, BBC, 11 October.
  8. George, Susannah, Warrick, Joby and DeYoung, Karen (2021) ‘Pakistan using informal intelligence channels to prop up Taliban fight against ISIS’, The Washington Post, 23 October.
  9. Giustozzi, Antonio (2021) ‘Afghanistan: Who are IS-K and what was the motivation behind Kabul airport attack?’ The Scotsman, 27 August
  10. Giustozzi, Antonio (2018) The Islamic State in Khorasan – Afghanistan, Pakistan and the New Central Asian Jihad, London: Hurst.
  11. Haris, Mujtaba & Latifi, Ali M. (2021) ‘Taliban takes on ISKP, its most serious foe in Afghanistan’, Al Jazeera, 27 September.
  1. Jadoon, Amira, Mindes, Andrew & Sayed, Abdul (2021) ‘The evolving Taliban-ISK rivalry’, The Interpreter, 07 September.
  2. Kleinfield, Rachel (2018) A Savage Order: How the World’s Deadliest Countries Can Forge a Path to Security, New York: Pantheon.
  3. Misra, Amalendu (2004) Afghanistan: The Labyrinth of Violence, Cambridge: Polity Press.
  4. Misra, Amalendu (2015) ‘What does Islamic State actually want?’, The Conversation, 19 November.
  5. Misra, Amalendu (2021) ‘Nation Building: Will the Taliban Succeed Where America Failed?’, The National Interest, 18 August.
  1. Muggah, Robert & Rohozinski, Rafal (2021) ‘Islamic State-Khorasan’s Reach Extends Far Beyond Afghanistan’, Foreign Policy, 09 September.
  2. Pantucci, Raffaello (2020) ‘Indians and Central Asians Are the New Face of the Islamic State’, Foreign Policy, 08 October.
  3. Paliwal, Avinash (2021) India’s Afghan strategy as China steps up presence in Af-Pak region, The Times of India, 08 July. Raghavan, Sudarsan (2021) ‘Afghanistan’s war is over, but the Taliban faces a new hurdle: Enforcing the law — and protecting Afghans from ISIS’, The Washington Post, 19 October.
  4. Rotberg, Robert I. (ed.) (2003) State Failure and State Weakness in a Time of Terror, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
  5. Sharma, Neeta (2021) ‘Amid Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan, A Worrying Trend In J&K’, NDTV, 30 August.
  6. The Economist (2021) ‘What is the Islamic State Khorasan Province?’, 27August.
  7. Wood, Graeme (2015) ‘What ISIS Really Wants’, The Atlantic, March.

24. Zartman, I William (1995) Collapsed States The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.

Future of India-Afghan Relations

Asia primarily has four regional security complexes, namely West Asia, Central Asia, East Asia and South Asia. Afghanistan occupies a location of geo-strategic importance as it lies on the periphery of all four, without merging into any of them. It is one of the few nations that remained neutral during the two world wars. Afghanistan has been more of an insulator, than a buffer, between these four complexes. Despite strong forces in its neighbourhood, it has retained its inherent characteristics of internal warlordism, cross-border terrorism and drugs trade.

The Taliban, which has now taken over Afghanistan, were earlier in power from 1996 till 2001. That rule was characterised by a harsh Islamic law, discrimination against women, providing patronage to terrorism and opium cultivation. Only three countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Pakistan accorded formal recognition to that government. Origins of the Taliban lie in the guerrilla training of young Pashtuns in the Pakistani seminaries in the cross-border Pashtun belt. A doctrinal mix of a more moderate ‘Pashtunwali’ and a fundamentalist Islam has resulted in an inconsistent ideology, this asymmetry being a source of a larger divide in the Taliban.

Though the Afghanistan political matrix has undergone great changes since 1973, Taliban has retained its significance therein, despite the loss of its founder leader Mullah Muhammad Omar and thousands of its cadres. Its ideology has been shaped by the regional security environment and the fact that Afghanistan is a land locked country, which makes befriending Pakistan and Iran a prerequisite for trade and survival.

Regional Dynamics

The neighbouring regions of Central Asia and West Asia, particularly West Asia, are torn by internal conflicts and intervention of major powers. They are global destabilisers. Geopolitical and security literature has termed these areas as shatterbelts[i]. Afghanistan, lying between these two regions, itself is facing a combination of civil wars and interventionist actions of other countries, often leading to great power competition.

Rawalpindi has always exercised significant financial, diplomatic and operational control over the guerrilla activities of Taliban. The Director General of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), a military outfit, was present at the initial government formation at Kabul in September 2021. Pakistan seeks a Taliban-controlled government in Kabul to secure its western borders and keep the Durand Line quandary under control. Pakistan’s rivalry with India has prompted the latter to consider Afghanistan as a form of operational strategic depth. Afghanistan has thus become a secondary theatre of this rivalry.

The Taliban leadership is well aware of these historically adversarial relations between its former mentor, Pakistan, and its beneficiary, India. This has given the Taliban leadership a chance to take advantage of both sides. Recent incidents in the narcotics trade can be viewed from this angle. Nonetheless, this opens a window of opportunity for India.

The Taliban Leadership

The Taliban leadership council is called the Rahbari Shura or the Quetta Shura. It decides on all political and military matters and operates a shadow government through nine commissions and three administrative organs, akin to the ministries of the Taliban government. Most of the Taliban leadership are from the Mujahideen and received their schooling in Afghanistan. Their ideology, thus, is more related to the Afghan tribal way of life.

When Pakistan created the Taliban in the 1990s, inductees were mostly Pashtuns from the madrassas in the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Ideology of the new inductee Pashtuns was different from that of Afghanistan. The movement’s ideology has transformed over the past two decades from a ‘traditionalist’ Islam conforming to the concepts of Eastern Pashtun villages to one more characteristically conforming with the Arab world. Anand Gopal and Alex Strick van Linschoten, in their June 2017 paper “Ideology in the Afghan Taliban”, have made three important observations regarding dynamism of Taliban ideology[ii].

  • Firstly, though the Taliban’s ideology was rooted in the pre-1979 rural South Pashtun, and did get distorted during the civil war, it was never allowed to become an alien phenomenon, or a product of extremist Pakistani madrassas.
  • Secondly, the original Taliban’s ideology has undergone a metamorphosis from Pashtunwali and is now closer to the Arab form of political Islam. The objectives and methodology have shifted in important ways.
  • Thirdly, the Taliban’s actions never reflected an unreasoned imitation of an ideology. They have been the result of an internal logic, reflecting a pragmatic concern for statecraft.

Taliban’s Relations with Major Terrorist Groups

The current multi-layered leadership of Taliban is a mix of war veterans from the Mujahideen and guerrilla warfare trainees of the ISI from madrassas in Pakistan. Their occupational activities have brought them in contact with other terrorist groups. Some significant linkages are as under.

  • Al-Qaeda. Taliban is a nationalist movement of Afghanistan, whereas al-Qaeda has acquired a global footprint. The latter is bound to the Taliban by a pledge of allegiance, “bay’ah,” which was first offered in the 1990s by Osama Bin Laden to Mullah Omar and which has been renewed several times since, though not always publicly acknowledged by the Taliban.[iii] It is unlikely that the Taliban will sever their ties with the al-Qaeda, now that they hold power, despite the assurances given in the Doha Agreement in February 2020.
  • Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The (Afghanistan) Taliban received active support from TTP which is ideologically intertwined with groups like al-Qaeda. The TTP too has pledged “Bayah” to the Afghan Taliban, which is a matter of concern to Pakistan. The TTP aims to make Pakistan a Sharia compliant state and their attacks on the Pakistani forces have intensified after Kabul fell to the Taliban.[iv]
  • Islamic State. The Taliban has reportedly fought the self-proclaimed Islamic State, which is a rival of al-Qaeda and has an estimated 2,500 members in Afghanistan. Some districts in Afghanistan are reportedly under ISIS control.
  • East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). ETIM is active in the Uighur insurgency in Xinjiang province of West China. It is said to receive training and other logistic support from Taliban.

The Taliban leadership would be under immense international diplomatic and economic pressures to terminate its narcotics trade and support to terrorist activities. Particularly in regard to the latter, external pressures separated from any domestic will, are likely to run into a blind alley. This has potential to lead to a non-optimal situation wherein aid in kind may be more readily available with a general reluctance amongst nations to transfer cash.

Foreign Policy

Afghanistan has always attracted big power attention due to its location at the confluence of multiple regional security complexes. This interest has been rekindled by the energy resources of Central and West Asia and China’s quest for a land access to the Indian Ocean. Pakistan’s influence on Taliban affairs, further complicated by the India-Pakistan rivalry, has drawn Afghanistan into a different security convolute. Taliban’s deciding to keep its released prisoners at Qatar, rather than Pakistan, appear to be a step to managing this conflict.

Taliban’s foreign policy formulation has been based on factors quite akin to those on which Afghan foreign policy has historically been devised. For successful governance of the nation, Taliban will need to address certain critical aspects in the financially bankrupt and war-ravaged nation.

  • Afghanistan is a large supplier of dry fruits and has rich mineral deposits all across the country. There are currently more than 1,400 discovered mineral deposits of gems, copper, iron, ore, gold, and lithium in Afghanistan, estimated by US officials as being worth at least US $3 trillion.[v] This potential can be optimally exploited by technical collaboration with more advanced nations, which in turn will improve its trade deficit too.
  • Human resource development, such as higher education facilities and integrating women into the work force will be essential. Educating a nation is costly and has a long lead time. An intermediary measure would be to seek scholarships for higher education courses in friendly countries.
  • Economic infrastructure, such as roads and dams, will help usher in prosperity in Afghanistan.
  • A well-equipped and trained police force is essential for governance.

All these activities require finances that Afghanistan does not have. Any income from the narcotics trade will be closely monitored by the international community. When last in power, Taliban had tried to generate a renewable source of revenue by progressing a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India with the American Unocal Corporation. This did not take off due to political and security instability. Loans from multilateral financial institutions and aid from friendly nations could provide a solution. This underscores the need to establish and maintain good relations with other nations even if it runs contrary to its earlier core ideology.

India’s Concerns

India’s core strategic interests in Afghanistan lie in regional stability and development without external interference. A stable, democratic Afghanistan that is relatively modernist and inclusive would minimise external interference in the country, thereby avoiding geopolitical imbalances in the region. It would also open up the region for flow of energy resources from the oil and mineral-rich Central Asian Republics through pipelines, which would benefit India besides other stake holders. How that is to be achieved would remain a challenge for India, especially with the Taliban government.

A core interest for India would be an Afghanistan that does not become a haven for terrorist groups from across the world. The eradication of all terrorist activities emanating from the region is hence a priority for India, which includes state-sponsored terrorist nurseries and havens along either side of the Durand Line. In a May 2020 statement, the Taliban disassociated itself from the Kashmir insurgency[vi]. That statement reversed the Taliban’s past ardent opposition to Indian presence in Kashmir by terming the Kashmir situation as a ‘domestic issue of other countries that the movement did not seek to interfere in’.[vii] Whether the Taliban sticks to this commitment remains to be seen.

Pakistan’s quest for strategic depth in Afghanistan would not affect India strategically as Pakistan’s internal fault lines will deny it success. Pakistan’s commitment to the Sunni cause in Afghanistan has led to violence against its own Shia minority—a strategic error that is potentially of the same gravity as that which cost it East Pakistan, now Bangladesh.

India’s Aid Paradigm

Afghanistan needs sustained external aid to develop in its preferred areas. International aid is generally directed towards the donor nation attaining economic, political or security benefits; however, a pillar of New Delhi’s aid to Kabul has been development partnership. This aid is formulated primarily on basis of Kabul’s stated needs.

India, as the sixth largest donor to Afghanistan, has given over US $ 4 billion aid in the last two decades. It has built more than 2,500 miles of roads, which includes the 218-kilometer Zaranj-Delaram Road to the Afghanistan-Iran border for facilitating movement of goods and services to the Iranian port at Chabahar. This highway, completed in 2010, connects Iran with the Garland Highway, which links Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat and Kunduz. It has built the Afghanistan-India Friendship Dam (AIFD), also called ‘Salma Dam’, in Herat District, hydropower plants, electricity transmission lines, hospitals, schools and the country’s new parliament building. Three major characteristics of Indian aid are that it is bereft of any strings attached, overheads are minimised by use of its existing structures and it is provided as per the end-use determined by Kabul.

Where India goes from here, after the Taliban takeover, will depend to a large extent on the type of government the Taliban runs. In February 2020, the Taliban’s political spokesman, Suhail Shaheen, told Turkey’s Anadolu News Agency that the Taliban has “no issue with any country”. Then on 26 August 2021, in an interview to the News Channel CNN-News 18, the same spokesperson candidly stated that the Taliban would be happy if India completed the ongoing projects and would welcome any new projects which were for the welfare of the people.[viii] How this ultimately pans out is yet to be seen, but it would be prudent to keep in mind the fact that the Taliban government in power is not inclusive and is largely controlled by the Haqqani Network, which in turn is beholden to Pakistan. So further assistance by India will depend on how the situation in Afghanistan evolves.

India’s Afghan Policy and Future Options

New Delhi has consistently supported a strong, democratic and violence free Afghanistan due to the latter’s insulator status between the four regional security complexes of Asia. Afghanistan is party to dominant conflict in South Asia and has pronounced significance to peace and stability in the region. Its inclusion in SAARC in 2007 was promoted by India in order to expedite its strategic integration into the South Asian regional order. The current situation In Afghanistan provides India the opportunity at international power projection, as all major powers have a stake in the manner the Afghan situation pans out. The cost of engagement has to be seen in the context of the cost of non-engagement, so some form of outreach to the Taliban may be inevitable, though this does not mean formal recognition of the government. Indian would need to closely watch the growing congruence between the Taliban and Pakistan, as also the forays that China may make in Afghanistan to pursue its economic interests.

The Indian response will have to be based on how the situation evolves. Should Afghanistan slip into civil war, then Indian support to forces that desire an inclusive government and who bat for gender equality will perhaps be on the cards. Russia is already concerned with the growing threat of the spread of radicalism in Afghanistan, which would have negative spillover effects on the Central Asian Republics and thence to Russia’s Muslim population. Towards this end, a joint exercise of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) called Rubezh-2021 was held in Kyrgyzstan in early September in which military personnel from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan took part. The exercise focused on the preparation and conduct of hostilities to destroy illegal armed groups that invade CSTO member state’s territory. Iran too is deeply concerned with the sectarian killings that have taken place through a spate of suicide attacks on Shia Mosques.[ix] India could coordinate its efforts in such a scenario with Russia, Iran and the CAR’s.

India could also support a UN mandated intervention under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. But as this would be a peace keeping force and not a force for peace enforcement, its utility would be negligible. In any case, the Taliban will not accept outside forces on its land, making this option a virtual non-starter.

A more pragmatic and doable approach for India would be to support efforts at providing humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan. Prime Minister Modi spoke of this in the G-20 meeting,[x] calling for assistance based on UN Resolution 2593[xi] of the 15-member Security Council, which demanded that Afghan territory not be used to threaten or attack any country, reiterated the importance of combating terrorism in Afghanistan and for providing unhindered access for the United Nations and its agencies to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. Here, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) would have a central role in providing assistance and would give India a much needed say in assisting Afghanistan’s return to stability.

On the negative side, with the current dominant role being played by Pakistan in Afghanistan, Indian efforts to restore stability will be hindered by Pakistan. Would USA, Russia, China and Iran be able to dissuade Pakistan from playing a spoiler, would have to be seen, but should that happen, it could make a significant impact on restoring stability in Afghanistan. 

Author Brief Bio: Maj Gen Harkirat Singh is an Alumnus of Sherwood College, Nainital, National Defence Academy and National Defence College, New Delhi. A veteran of India’s strategic forces operations within the country and abroad, he has been a resource person for geo-strategy at national universities.

References:

[i] A feature of the contemporary world geopolitical map, the “shatterbelt”, was especially prominent during the cold war. Shatterbelts are regions torn by internal conflicts whose fragmentation is increased by the intervention of external major powers in contention over the region. They are global destabilisers. Also see “Geopolitics of the World System”, Saul Bernard Cohen, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers Inc, Oxford, UK, 2003, p 5-42, pp 436.

[ii]  Anand Gopal and Alex Strick van Linschoten, “Ideology in the Afghan Taliban”, Afghanistan Analysts Network, June 2017. Details at https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/201705-AGopal-ASvLinschoten-TB-Ideology.pdf . Viewed on 02 Aug 2020

[iii] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58473574

[iv] https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/al-qaeda-taliban-pledge-pakistan-1851361-2021-09-10

[v] https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/167207/Economic%20Growth%20opportunities%20in%20Afghanistan%20final.pdf

[vi]   “Taliban Praises India for Resisting US Pressure on Afghanistan”, Press Trust of India, The Hindu, New Delhi, 17 June 2012.  Also see https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/taliban-praises-india-for-resisting-us-pressure-on-afghanistan/article3539512.ece

[vii]   “Kashmir is India’s Internal Matter, says Taliban; Denies Plan to Target Delhi”, Shishir Gupta , Hindustan Times, New Delhi, 19 May 2020. Also see  https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/kashmir-is-india-s-internal-matter-says-taliban-denies-plan-to-target-delhi/story-sOgG3yPsMenP4nZDKRbygL.html.

[viii] https://www.news18.com/news/world/exclusive-taliban-seek-foreign-aid-to-rebuild-nation-after-20-years-of-war-have-special-message-for-india-4126862.html

[ix] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58925863

[x] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/united-global-response-needed-to-bring-desired-changes-in-afghanistan-pm-2573239

[xi] https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14620.doc.htm

China’s Quest for World Dominance & Its Impact on India and the Region

It has now been over ten weeks since Kabul has fallen. This has been a tumultuous time for not just Afghanistan, but for the entire region. The takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban, which took the Biden administration by surprise due to the sheer pace of its execution, has set into motion a major geo political alignment. Afghanistan, often considered to be the graveyard of empires, may now become the epicentre of the power play between America and China. The present turmoil in Afghanistan, exacerbated by America’s messy withdrawal, presents a perfect opportunity for China to exploit the fault lines in the region and challenge the present world order.

The intense rivalry between the top two economies in the world, which first started with the trade war in 2018, has since intensified. The outbreak of coronavirus marked an inflection point in China’s relations with America and the world. It was during the pandemic that the full import of China’s wolf warrior diplomacy and its economic and foreign policy became apparent. After long speeches at Davos singing praises for multilateralism and assurances that China will not seek hegemony, the world had been taken in by Xi Jinping’s carefully crafted image of an economic super power that would not risk its trade ties for geo-political ambitions. This façade fell in 2020. For Beijing, its economic might was a means to an end. This included changing the present political world order and establishing its own system and values.

The desire to redraw world maps, which has not been restricted to just the Indo-Pacific, has led China to pursue an alternative global order, with its money power as its fulcrum. Thus, Xi Jinping forged partnerships with like-minded countries like Iran and Pakistan that share China’s deep dislike and distrust for the existing world order. These partnerships served two key objectives: to subvert the present system and undercut China’s principal rivals, which were America, India and Japan. Despite its smaller economic stature, India’s potential to be a balancing force against China in Asia, due to its demographics and rising economy, became a Chinese concern. To limit its ability to become a counter to it, China flanked New Delhi and redoubled its partnership with Pakistan. China also undercut America in its geo-strategic orbits by forming deep partnerships with countries like Iran and Russia; even as it enhanced the scope of its economic partnership with Israel.

For years, it was believed that China’s singular focus towards achieving the numero uno position in Asia would be via the maritime route, given its obsession with Taiwan and a growing desire to undo colonial subjugation under Japan, or its ‘century of humiliation’. It was assumed that China’s expansive maritime strategy, partly explaining the furious pace of ship-building since early 2010, was a precursor to sea-based hegemonic tendencies. To this effect, China built the artificial islands in the South China Sea, almost presenting a fait accompli to the United States. However, Beijing’s ambitions have not been limited to maritime expansion, but also extend to seeking expansion on land. To this effect, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been actively working since 2016 to offset power equations, stretching from Pakistan till West Asia. In fact, much before Taliban’s Kabul takeover, the superpower-in-a-hurry had started laying the ground for its ambition to change status quo in the entire region. It was a message to both America and India to jettison their efforts to contain China’s expansive military strategy in Asia, which firmed up post the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in 2017.

Under Jinping, Beijing has been eyeing a central role in global power equations. To this effect, China has boosted its presence in a region historically considered to be America’s bastion, West Asia. Of the four Indo-Pacific democracies that formed the Quad, it was Washington and New Delhi that have been at the centre of China’s aggressive strategy for West Asia. As the final arbitrator in a region filled with inherent complexities and contradictions, America has traditionally played a pivotal role in deciding power equations. For India, the West Asian region is vital to secure its energy needs, which are heavily dependent on imports. China’s strategy to create a nexus of countries in the Middle East has rested on its ambition to challenge American power and create uncertainty for India’s oil needs. In the last one decade, China has made significant investments in the Middle East. On one end, it cultivated wide-ranging business interests with American allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel and on the other end, it redoubled efforts to deepen strategic ties with Iran.

Beijing’s Middle East roadmap had two primary facets – enhancing the scope of its partnership with Tehran and green signalling large BRI projects in Israel and Saudi Arabia, which form the backbone of the US security network in the region. This highlighted China’s hunger to target the Middle East as the next arena for its power struggle with America and the liberal world. Like Asia, where Beijing built deeper ties with Pakistan to make use of its strategic location, in the Middle East too, China used a similar template. In this region also, Beijing needed a network of allies to topple the existing world order. The end objective was creation of an alternative power axis from Pakistan to Afghanistan to Iran. In its Middle East gambit, both Russia and Turkey played an important role. In fact, Moscow was vital for Beijing to spread its influence since it hoped to piggy-ride the former’s historical connections and deep inroads across the region. So after challenging the status quo in Asia, the Middle East is now the next frontier where Beijing wants to establish itself as the new-age hegemon.

On one end was the USA-led first world order where Japan, India, France, the UK and other US allies played a key role. At the other end was a China-centric world order, sealed by the meeting of minds between two authoritarian leaders to exploit the existing fault lines in geo-politics, geo-economics and geo-technology. While the American-led system was geared towards preserving the status quo, China, along with Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Turkey, are all aligned to change the same.

The present flux in Afghanistan has further cemented China’s formation by creating a long corridor of nations that are averse to the US-dominated world order. Afghanistan, which has witnessed a shadow boxing match between two super powers in the past, is all set to witness another such geo-political contest. For almost a decade now, Beijing’s economic strength, military might and global clout have been geared for a larger objective. In fact, China’s primary goal has been to upend the world order as we knew it, one where liberal democracies with market-driven economies strive to uphold global rules. For Beijing, which became Asia’s largest economy in 2010 and the world’s second largest military spender in 2011, its economic muscle has always been a means to a larger end, which has been to create a Sino-centric world order.

A Sino-centric world order was envisaged as one where China’s primary challengers would be subverted and their prospects blunted. In Asia, this strategy resulted in Beijing firming up its partnership with Islamabad, New Delhi’s hostile neighbour to the West. China has always viewed India’s growing role in the continent’s geo-economics and geo-politics as a threat. The possibility of the latter emerging as a strategic pivot in the Indo-Pacific region and a counter-balancing force to Beijing’s aggression has spooked Communist leaders. To stymie the myriad possibilities a stronger India presented to the world in undercutting Beijing’s clout in the region, China has been pursuing an aggressive policy along its land borders. While it is now an indisputable fact that the economic trajectories of the two countries became starkly different since the early 2000s, India’s potential and ability to counter Chinese hegemony in Asia has become a growing concern for the latter. This led Beijing to solidify its economic and security cooperation with Islamabad, India’s arch rival. Of course, it helped that India was the common adversary for both China and Pakistan.

Through Islamabad, Beijing created a new geo-strategic equation, one that hurt not just India’s but also America’s security interests. To pursue its strategy to create a parallel network of allies, China made Pakistan one of the foundational pillars of its flagship investment program, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Islamabad’s failed governance systems further enabled China to use its territory and resources towards its core objective. As it tied Islamabad closely to its mega BRI project by pumping in vast amounts of money in risky projects, Beijing ensured greater alignment on strategic and security issues, one of which was to contain India. As part of this policy, the BRI passed through the territory of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) that is India’s sovereign territory. The BRI’s infrastructure projects allowed China access to vast resources in the mineral-rich but restive regions of Gilgit-Baltistan in PoK and Balochistan. In fact, while launching the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the BRI in 2015, China was brazenly contemptuous of India’s concerns. The CPEC, thus, marked an important inflection point in India’s bilateral ties with China since it undermined the former’s role in its geo-strategic orbit.

Xi Jinping’s flagship global investment drive focused on Pakistan to serve China’s economic interests and strategic ambitions. In the last two years alone, China has invested US $65 billion in Pakistan, effectively providing an economic lifeline to its defunct economy. This ensured Islamabad has continued to remain afloat, and therefore, relevant to China’s larger strategic calculations to contain India. The corridor, which is a network of highway and power projects, is worth over US $80 billion after fresh contracts worth US $11 billion were signed in 2020.[1] Out of this, Beijing’s actual investment in Pakistan was nearly US $50 billion.[2]

For Pakistan, Chinese funds were a boon since it was faced with a collapsing economy and widespread political uncertainty. Over time, as it continued to green light more projects and piled up more loans, Islamabad entered the infamous club of eight most vulnerable countries due to its very high level of indebtedness. On the other hand, for Beijing, Islamabad’s growing indebtedness was an added advantage; it translated into higher economic and political leverage over the almost-failed state. Beijing’s modus operandi was clear – exploit Pakistan’s weak economy and strategic location to circumvent India and access vital infrastructure. So, China’s reasons for pouring billions of dollars into Pakistan went beyond just economic interests. It was to flank Asia’s third largest economy. And while it used Pakistan’s locational advantage and mineral wealth, in exchange China provided complete diplomatic immunity to its acts of terror.

For China, Pakistan serves three core interests, all of which have only been reinforced since America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan that has altered the geo political dynamics. For one, Pakistani deep state has tried to ensure India remains pre-occupied with a simmering Line of Control (LoC). China’s covert and overt support to Pakistan has signalled to New Delhi about the tactical disadvantages it faces as a result of the security partnership between its two hostile neighbours. Pakistan now offers tremendous utility in stretching Indian defence capabilities by forcing it to prepare for a ‘two-front’ war scenario. As ties with China deteriorate and with Pakistan continue to remain almost-hostile, India now needs to prepare for the possibility of greater collusion between its two neighbours. This means additional strain on New Delhi’s resources. Even if the possibility of a full-blown attack remains minimal, both Islamabad and its big daddy Beijing will continue to focus on low-key attacks, which are meant to be constant irritants. The present security climate is seeing some of those possibilities coming to light, with Pakistan starting another round of killings in Kashmir and China increasing its build up around the entire Himalayan range. Post Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, Pakistan’s deep state will exploit its terror links further, in a bid to create more instability. This will present the Indian security establishment with continued challenges to address terrorism-related threats, both in the border union territory of Jammu and Kashmir as well as across India.

Secondly, Pakistan is also vital for China’s plans and ambitions for the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). China started developing the Gwadar port in June 2016 to gain access to the northern part of the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf for its military and economic ambitions. Through Gwadar, China aimed to secure access for its oil imports, which presently go through the narrow Straits of Malacca and are susceptible to disruptions. The Gwadar port, located in the troubled region of Balochistan and just 120 kilometres from the Iranian border, made China a stakeholder in a maritime region which was traditionally considered to be New Delhi’s bastion. As Beijing has been working to blunt India’s strategic advantage in this vast maritime domain, it has hoped Gwadar would serve as an ideal launch pad to gain control over maritime waters spanning Central Asia and East Africa all the way till the Straits of Malacca and beyond. The port has enhanced China’s ability to dictate rules in the larger Indo-Pacific region. Together with Djibouti in Africa, Gwadar in Pakistan and Hambantota in Sri Lanka; China has sought to develop a string of strategically located ports for maritime dominance. To counter Gwadar, India was developing the Chabahar Port in Iran’s east, which was meant to side-step Pakistan. The project, which allowed India to take the land route to Afghanistan and Central Asia, is now unlikely to take off after Taliban formed the government.

Thirdly, Pakistan provided the perfect platform and opportunity for Beijing to engage with Afghanistan – a region where China has for long envisaged an enhanced role for itself, in tandem with its growing appetite for global dominance. While India has made several efforts to reach out to Kabul, including through a generous aid program to rebuild the war-torn country, it has always been disadvantaged by Pakistan’s access, geographical proximity and close ties with the Taliban. Since Islamabad has been integral to talks, negotiations and transition of power in Afghanistan, it has frustrated Indian efforts to create a counter-balance. After Taliban’s takeover, Indian predicament have become more pronounced, even as it has further bolstered Chinese ability to engage with Afghanistan.

By exploiting the present lawlessness in Afghanistan and Taliban’s deep linkages with Pakistan, China will seek to derive maximum economic, strategic and security benefits. Increased participation by Chinese companies to rebuild Afghanistan through the flagship BRI program will translate into direct transportation links and an economic corridor between China and Afghanistan. This, by default, will undercut both Indian interests and American influence. Besides strategic interests, Afghanistan is valuable since it is home to unexplored natural resources that China covets. Access to this mineral wealth will help China to secure its long-term growth prospects.

America may have left Afghanistan, but China hopes it will fill the leadership vacuum and use it to build its alternate formation of nations. US President Joe Biden wants to prioritise the Indo-Pacific region, but there is a good chance that this is exactly what Xi Jinping also wants the US to do. It is not an either/or choice for America, and the world. Instead, China’s influence needs to be responded, both on land and on sea; both in West Asia and in the Indo-Pacific.

China’s quest to dominate the world has deep security and geo-political ramifications for India. China’s rising influence must be contained, not just in the South China Sea, but also in the Indian Ocean Region, which is New Delhi’s bastion. For India, the post pandemic altered geo-political climate has been a wake-up call for the ramifications of ceding too much space in its own backyard. Far from building on its historic relations, New Delhi has witnessed several of its neighbours been charmed by Beijing’s cheque book. China has succeeded in limiting India’s influence in countries that have deep socio-cultural ties with it. New Delhi must reclaim its place in the region, both with its neighbours on land and with the IOR littorals.

The Asia Pacific is now termed as the Indo-Pacific due to the widespread recognition of the role India must play in it. But to actualise this and regain its dominance, New Delhi needs a multi-pronged strategy. India must step up the process of rebuilding its partnerships with the littorals and enhancing engagements with its island neighbours. New Delhi has deep historical and cultural ties with the Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles and Sri Lanka; and has for long been their natural ally. This equity must be harnessed and traditional social links with these countries must be strengthened. After years of relentless efforts by Beijing to buy influence in the IOR, New Delhi will now have to adopt bold diplomacy to reclaim lost ground. A starting point can be the lessons from Beijing-backed ‘India Out’ campaign run by opposition parties.[3] The campaign maligned India and succeeded due to India’s inability to counter such narratives early on. It deepened New Delhi’s trust deficit with Male. To gain more clout in Male’s politics, India must leverage its historical ties and engage more. Deeper defence and security ties could begin by training Maldivian defence personnel. Male’s distrust of Chinese funds after rising indebtedness can be India’s gateway to reconnect.

New Delhi’s biggest differentiator to China’s BRI-led diplomacy should be the willingness to engage with smaller countries as equal partners. India can position itself as a more ‘humane’ partner by providing solutions and aid/grant to all the island nations to address their biggest concern of ecological and environmental damage. India’s outreach coincides with the realisation by these small island nations about their geo-strategic importance, maritime value and enhanced role in the power play between India and China. To maximise their gains, the IOR littorals will even play India and China against each other as they jostle for more influence.

While China will entice them with more funds, India must step up its communication strategy to highlight the pitfalls of accepting them. New Delhi should offer attractive grants and assistance, which will be in stark contrast to China’s high interest loans. Till it becomes a US $5-6 trillion economy, New Delhi lacks the economic heft to match Beijing’s large loan book. To overcome this handicap, India must partner with Japan and the USA to provide more assistance to the IOR littorals. Tokyo has been the biggest provider of long-term infra loans in Asia, dwarfing the BRI. New Delhi must identify common areas to work with Japan in increasing development assistance to countries in IOR. India’s response to China’s debt trap model should be to create sustainable and economically viable infrastructure that boosts the local economy of recipient nations. New Delhi must communicate this message strongly to Mauritius, Seychelles, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Comoros and Madagascar.

India’s decisive pivot for the IOR revolves around its roadmap for the strategically located Andaman and Nicobar (A&N) Islands. The northern-most point of the Andaman Islands is just 40 kilometres from Myanmar and the southern-most point of the Nicobar Islands is just 160 kilometres from Indonesia. India’s projection of power into the Western Pacific could begin from the A&N Islands which houses its first joint military command. Due to their geo-strategic location, the A&N Islands provide India an opportunity to become a key stakeholder in the IOR and SCS. At present, the A&N Islands are only geared towards reconnaissance; to boost capabilities and exploit the islands’ full potential, engagement and collaboration with other navies must be enhanced. This would be an important message for Beijing which has incorrectly assumed India to be a passive participant in the region.

So far, New Delhi had been reluctant to forge strategic partnerships with other large navies, lest it be construed as a display of intent to escalate maritime tension. But in the wake of Beijing’s regular military exercises with its partners, New Delhi’s military and foreign policy must change. Regular military drills with Pakistan, trilateral exercises with Iran and Russia in the Persian Gulf[4] and elaborate military gaming exercises with South Africa and Russia off Cape Town[5], all point towards the future direction of China’s strategy. It is to continue its efforts to encircle India. China had set its sights on the IOR in 2013, and India needs to now respond proactively. In fact, India should have started preparations for such an eventuality after December 2019 when a Chinese research vessel entered its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Research vessels are primarily used in secret military data collection and collect information that impacts the movement and efficacy of submarines.

The A&N Islands’ strategic location allows India to utilise these as an advance post to alert about any enemy vessel and must be utilised better. Despite the A&N Islands’ proximity to the Straits of Malacca, New Delhi has held back from upgrading its presence due to fears that the move would be construed as blocking a crucial choke point. But it is precisely because of their strategic location that the A&N Islands can act as a stabilising factor against China’s maritime aggression. India can deepen its presence and capabilities in the A&N Islands by collaborating with France and the USA. France, which has the second largest EEZ in the world, operates a large facility in the IOR on the French Reunion Island. Indo-French military and security ties have been upgraded under PM Modi’s tenure and New Delhi must build on this by creating advanced capabilities in the A&N.

In any military strategy, not knowing the adversary’s larger ambition or game plan is the biggest surprise factor. In China’ case, though, there are no surprises; its over reach and ambition is clear. What remains unclear is the roadmap to address it.

Author Brief Bio: Gaurie Dwivedi is a Senior Journalist covering economy, policy and politics. She is also Visiting Fellow at USI.

References:

[1] Muhammad Akbar Notezai, ‘CPEC 2.0: Full Speed Ahead’, 2020, https:// thediplomat.com/2020/09/cpec-2-0-full-speed-ahead/

[2] American Enterprise Institute, China Global Investment Tracker, https:// www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/

[3] N Sathiya Moorthy, ORF, July 2021, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/maldives-india-out-campaign-now-takes-a-personal-turn-with-local-political-implications/

[4] N Bozorgmehr, H.Foy, Financial Times, December 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/3d5a4cf0-288f-11ea-9a4f-963f0ec7e134

[5] Ankit Panda, The Diplomat, Nov 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/chinese-russian-south-african-navies-conduct-trilateral-naval-exercises/

Political and Economic Challenges Faced by Nepal and Its Impact on Indo-Nepal Relations

Nepal is a Hindu majority state with religious, cultural, economic, matrimonial and linguistic relations with India. Thousands of Nepalese have married in India and vice versa which gives the bilateral ties a unique feature. Thousands of Nepalese are enrolled in the Indian Army and form part of the Gurkha Regiment. In addition, India and Nepal share an open border that is not only exceptional but has also facilitated Nepalese and Indian to live and work in each other’s countries. There is no other place in the Indian sub-continent that two sovereign nations enjoy an open border where visas and passports are not necessary. A whole generation of older Nepalese studied and struggled for the independence of India side by side with Indian freedom fighters. These leaders include former Prime Ministers Matrika Prasad Koirala, BP Koirala, Man Mohan Adhikari and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai. But all these unique features are now under stress.

With the flow of time, new generation of Nepalese opt for US, Australia and Europe for their higher studies, not necessarily Indian universities. The open border has been misused by notorious elements including terrorists and both India and Nepalese governments have realised the importance of regulating this border in order to stop organised crime, smuggling, human trafficking, arms trafficking and the growth of terrorism. The political change in Nepal in 2008 ended the Hindu monarchy and brought in secularism. This was done without a referendum. The elections to two Constituent Assemblies saw a period of great instability. Nepal has had 20 Prime Ministers in 20 years and 6 Constitutions in 5 decades. In all these major political changes, India has had a major role as a facilitator. However, the change of 2008 has introduced unprecedented challenges for Nepal as well as for India because of complexity of the polity and influence of extra-regional actors into what was previously an exclusive Indian domain. This paper shall discuss the historic dimension of Indo-Nepal relations in the religious and cultural spheres and discuss some of these challenges.

Post 1950 Nepal:

After India got independence, the Nepalese youth were also incited to end the 104 years of Rana oligarchy that had kept Nepal under the British security umbrella. King Tribhuvan took asylum in India as the anti-Rana movement became big inside Nepal. It was during the last days of the Rana regime that the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship was signed between the two countries. This Treaty remains a bone of contention even till today. The Rana regime collapsed soon afterwards.

The Treaty has some unique features such as Nepalese citizens enjoying same rights as Indian citizens in India, including the right to hold jobs and buy property. However, the Left parties have continuously used this Treaty as an example of Indian hegemony in Nepal. Thus, we can see the period of 1950-1960 as a phase when Nepal saw the light of democracy but was unable to consolidate it. A rift erupted between Matrika Prasad Koirala and his half-brother BP Koirala. PM Nehru’s Nepal policy was also full of dubiousness. On the one hand, he supported democratic forces but on the other he was furious with the first democratically elected Prime Minister (BP Koirala) in 1960 for having established diplomatic relations with Israel and Pakistan. The royal takeover of 1960 took place when the Indian Army Chief was on an official visit to Nepal. While all senior leaders of the Nepali Congress and other parties were arrested, Queen Elizabeth visited Nepal in 1961, giving full political recognition to the royal takeover.  King Mahendra introduced a political system known as the party less Panchayat system, very much like the Indian Panchayati Raj. It survived for 30 years.

During this period, we can easily see that India’s Nepal policy was more low key and reluctant to take any major or hasty decision as its focus was diverted to managing other internal and external crisis. A secure Northern belt provided by the royal regime safeguarded India’s UP and Bihar states with external military action. The Sino-Indian border conflict of 1962 also enabled King Mahendra to expand his foreign policy ambitions to make Nepal more visible to the outside world. Nepal became active in UN, NAM and also in expanding its ties with the US and Europe. Nepal was elected twice to the UN Security Council (1968 and 1988). A number of high-level visits from India to Nepal are also testimony to the fact that relations was satisfactory. Only in 1988, the then Rajiv Gandhi government took some stringent measures that led to the deterioration of bilateral relations. Nepalese term this period as ‘Indian blockade’ when petroleum supplies and daily essentials were stopped. As a result of this, a whole new generation of Nepalese became anti-Indian.

The period 1990-2001 can be termed as a phase of political turbulence but with the constitutional monarchy as a bulwark of stability under popular King Birendra, Indo-Nepal ties did not suffer. Political parties raked up the issue of Kalapani border encroachment and Tanakpur power projects. King Birendra was the guest of honour at the Republic Day function in 1999. However, the political situation was again deteriorating with the onset of the Maoist insurgency in 1996. Initially, only the rural hinterlands were under the influence of the Maoist rebels but by 2004, the urban centres were also increasingly targeted. Due to the unfortunate cause of events of the royal massacre of 2001, stability in Nepal was again threatened. King Gyanendra took over direct power in 2005. India, this time again under the UPA government, brokered the 12-point understanding between the Maoists who had Interpol arrest notice and the political parties in 2005. This led the way to the people’s movement in April 2006.

But democracy in Nepal is still being consolidated. There seems to be a total lack of respect for each other’s vision, ideals and perceptions among the political parties. The main objective of democracy is to establish a strong link between the general people and society. It demonstrates that Nepalese democratic evolution has taken baby steps and has even fallen backwards if one is to see the recent events of weakening of main organs of the state viz. judiciary, legislature and the executive.

Mal-governance, nepotism, corruption and incompetence of Nepalese political party leaders gave many opportunities to the monarch and foreigners to intervene in the political system of Nepal. The Maoist insurgency was one of the most disturbing, unfortunate events in which 18 thousand innocents lost their lives and the nation is still suffering as it lags from economic and political recovery. The deadly earthquake of 2015 gave another blow to the ravaged economy of Nepal. Reconstruction of schools, colleges, private houses, UNESCO heritage sites is still going on at snails pace. India was the first responder to the earthquake. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called by phone to the then PM Sushil Koirala who was on a foreign visit to inform about the earthquake in Nepal. The Constitution enacted soon afterwards, while sit was a progressive document in many respects, failed to be inclusive as the Madhesi grievances remained. The Constitution has envisioned a federal structure for the country. A new experiment for Nepal, it is hoped that the federal states will be able to address the challenges of their particular states in a better way than during a centralised polity run from Kathmandu. It ought to be remembered that 51 percent of Nepalese live in the Terai.

The economic growth has obviously been affected, and the growth rate lingers between 3-4% whereas the target is around 7.5%. Nepal still has agrarian economy which employs the majority of the workforce of the country. But the massive unemployment in the country has forced able, young Nepalese to go to the Gulf, Malaysia, Korea, Japan and other countries for employment. Although remittance that they send contributes about 28 percent of the total GDP, there is fear that even this source of foreign currency may plunge with the COVID-19 closures.

Post 2015 Nepal: A New Hope

Mr. K.P Oli and Mr. Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the CPN (UML) and CPN (Maoist) came together to form a United Communist Party, and the merger secured a near two-third majority in parliament. But a rift soon erupted between these two chairmen of the ruling party. The new dispensation also established party-to-party ties with the Chinese Communist Party. Prime Minister Oli had sufficient time and resources to resurrect the economy and give new hope to the people of Nepal suffering from years of despair and hopelessness. However, he raked up the nationalist sentiment by changing the political map of Nepal that was endorsed by a two-third majority of the Nepalese parliament. This was the time when Sino-Indian border clash was taking place at Galwan valley. Oli also said that Lord Ram was born in Nepal and gave a public jibe at the Indian national motto by saying ‘Simha Mewa Jayate’. Ultimately, after two failed attempts to dissolve the House, he was replaced by Sher Bahadur Deuba who became Prime Minister for the 5th time.

People wanted to embrace a New Nepal in 2015, but the greed for power has brought the country to its knees. All the parties have deviated from the main purpose of a stable political system of nation-building. The leaders seemed to have forgotten that the main aim of their struggle for democracy was to create an environment where all citizens, overcoming differences of caste and creed, get equal opportunity and where all developmental needs are addressed. Instead, post-2008, they have politicised all vital organs of the state including the judiciary. According to the author Kamal Dev Bhattarai, “the country has been riding a wave of political chaos since Maoist rebels launched their war in 1996 – two decades of instability.”[1]

In fact, the power struggle has toppled every single government since 1990. This has also scared away foreign investors, who are unsure of making investments amidst the political uncertainties. The industrialists have lost trust in the government due to the erratic changes not only among ministers but also officials. Political instability gives a negative impact on society increasing frustration among the people, which affects the nation as a whole. Political instability is a breeding ground for the unemployed youth to engage in political violence and armed conflicts. Inequality, inflation and the slow pace of GDP growth all are contributing factors to the instability. According to Deependra Chaulagain, ‘the infighting between the political parties has helped neither the ruling party nor the opposition’[2]. Due to lack of governance, education, health services and the overall economy is suffering. Nepal is even hit harder by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With the relaxation of prohibitory orders, the economic activities are gradually picking up among the income-generating sectors, but the government is still struggling to generate resources to fund the rehabilitation of COVID -19 affected sectors, especially the SMEs.

Because of lock-down in India due to the COVID-19 pandemic, thousands of poor Nepalese migrant labour working in Indian cities returned home in 2020. This caused a massive spread of the pandemic inside Nepal. But with the unemployment in the country and lack of health services including lack of oxygen, they started returning back to India soon afterwards taking advantage of the open border facility. This shows the dependency of the Nepalese economy on India. It also exposed the massive unemployment prevalent in rural Nepal, especially in the far-western region.

Labor migration itself has also put Nepal in the high-risk category of HIV-aids transmission, not to mention other societal costs. The country is suffering from skilled manpower as all are setting out for work outside. Nepal has been unfortunate to face the ill effects of climate change and natural disasters too. Due to global warming, the Himalayas are at huge risk because fast-melting glaciers in the high mountains pose a huge threat to life and property.  Author Sarah Karnot’s ‘disfunctionalism’ concept of the state has been recognised as the primary reason for the persistence of poverty and political instability.[3] Nepal has managed to make progress in some areas, but achievements have not been even. Marginalised communities such as the Madhesis and Dalits need to be brought in the mainstream. There have been some positive strides but this is not enough. Economy has to be resurrected, tourism has to be given priority but for all this, political stability is a must.

Nepal: A Yam between Two Boulders:

Nearly three centuries ago, King Prithvi Narayan Shah had envisioned Nepal as a ‘yam between two boulders’. Nepal should have been able to benefit from being a low-income to prosperous country in between two Asian giants. Though Nepal is rich in natural resources, especially hydro-power, it fails to generate, utilise and exploit this power for sale to other countries in the immediate neighbourhood. This leads to over-dependence on foreign aid. Only recently, Indian help to build transmission lines has created synergy among the two countries and Nepal has been exporting power during the lean season. Nepal’s notorious ‘load shedding’ has also eased due to power import from India. India has been a big contributor in terms of humanitarian assistance during difficult times, like the devastating 2015 earthquake, as mentioned earlier. Modi government was also steadfast in supplying the COVISHIELD vaccines for Nepal in the midst of the covid-19 pandemic. Indian Ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Kwatra also handed over medical supplies worth Rs. 18 crores in June 2021.[4] This aid comprised ventilators, ambulances, PPEs and other equipment. India is one of the major investors in Nepal which helps in generating employment and opportunity for Nepalese people. Nepal’s major trade is conducted through the Kolkata port. India has helped provide assistance to build hospitals and educational institutions which help in exchanging students for achieving a degree.

India under PM Modi has given priority to facilitate improved connectivity and has allocated resources for building border roads and railways that will reduce poverty in Nepal. India is Nepal’s largest trade partner and provides essential transit. As Nepal is a landlocked country, it is very difficult for it to be self-sufficient, and not rely on its powerful neighbour. The two countries have undertaken various connectivity projects to enhance people-to-people linkages and achieve economic progress but the bordering states of UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Uttarakhand also need to be in the same page in terms of giving extra attention to the development of the border regions. In some areas, the Nepalese side is more developed than the Indian side. India is also trying to look out for various ways to develop the inland waterways within its framework of trade and transit to provide access to the sea for Nepal.

Of late, China has also given top priority to Nepal and this is quite visible after the success of the Maoist movement in 2008. Two communist parties have set-up party-to-party ties as their mutual ideology of Marxism and Maoism gives a common kinship. Flurry of high-level visits, awarding of major contracts and tenders such as the Bhairahawa International Airport and Pokhara International Airport to Chinese companies show that Sino-Nepal relations is getting a strong economic tinge. Second largest cluster of tourists to Nepal are Chinese and there is much anticipation inside Nepal of the early completion of the Golmud-Lhasa-Shigatse-Keyrung railway that will connect Nepal to China via the railways. Although Chinese economic footprint is growing all around South Asia, what makes Sino-Nepal relations in the modern era truly exceptional is the dominance of communist parties in Nepali polity. These communist parties were originally having fraternal ties with Indian communist parties. Although Nepal would like to reap benefits from the economic progress of both its neighbours and would want to distance itself from the bilateral problems between India and China, its manoeuvrability is limited in this regard. At times, Indian commentators fail to understand this phenomenon and criticise Nepal as playing the ‘China card’. Nepal’s relations with both India and China need to be seen in their own merit, the latter having become very active in terms of trade, investment, tourism and providing scholarships to students in the recent years. Instead of nitpicking on China’s economic forays inside Nepal, India has to sharpen its own traditional leverages which it has overlooked post 2006.

Conclusion

The political evolution of Nepal since the 50s, the dependence of the economy on Indian economy and the new factors adversely affecting the relationship has been highlighted above. Nepal and India share a unique, deep-rooted relationship of cooperation and close people-to-people cultural ties, but India needs to comprehensively review its Nepal policy from time to time. We not only share an open border for the free, unrestricted movement of our nationals but also have a very close bond through marriages popularly known as roti-beti ka Rishta. We share very similar ties in terms of the common religion – Hinduism and Buddhism. However, official India needs to revisit our common heritage and encourage religious and cultural bonds such as the Ram-Sita Vivah Mahotsav in Janakpur. The Sanatan culture, Sanskrit and revered temples such as the Char Dhams (Four Dhams) in India, Lord Pashupatinath and Muktinath in Nepal, yoga, Kumbh Mela, Shiva Ratri, etc. are embodiments of our common heritage. The ‘Bol Bam’ pilgrims are increasing year by year from India to Nepal. Stressing on physical connectivity is not enough. No other country can replace India inside Nepal if the common religious, cultural and linguistic aspects are stressed and given priority.

Author Brief Bio: Raksha Pandey is a Ph.D. Research Scholar in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences at Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal.

References:

[1] Bhattarai, K.D. (2016). Nepal’s unending political instability. The Diplomat

[2] Chaulagain, D. (2021). Political instability could affect recovery of the economy hit by the pandemic. The Kathmandu Post

[3] Karnot, S. (2006). South Asian Journal of South Asian studies

[4] See India Hands Over Medical Equipment Worth Over Rs 18 Crore to Nepal (news18.com)

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