~ By Raghav Pandey

In a democracy the ultimate citadel of power rests with the people. The government and its institutions derive their strength from its citizens and usually the agent of such delegation of power is a well drafted Constitution. The Legislature and the Executive in the Indian constitutional setup, hence derive their powers from the democratic mandate by virtue of being elected by the people. Other key institutions like the bureaucracy get legitimacy from the powers delegated to them by the executive.

It is pertinent to note that the judiciary functions independently, in accordance with Montesquieu’s theory of separation of the three wings of the government, namely, the Legislature, Executive and the Judiciary. The function which is earmarked for the judiciary is adjudication of laws but difficulty arises, because in many of the disputes which come up before the judiciary, the executive itself is a party. Hence, independence of judiciary is a crucial necessity for the healthy functioning of a democratic state. On the other hand, the executive has the democratic legitimacy to govern the country. Hence the judicial appointments have long been a subject of debate, as there has always been a need to strike a balance between democratic legitimacy and judicial independence. The United States (US) of America and the United Kingdom are amongst the two longest functioning democracies in the world and hence it is pertinent to examine their models of judicial appointments.

In the US, the method of judicial appointments is pretty straightforward, where the President of the US nominates the Supreme Court Justices, Court of Appeals Judges, and District Court Judges, who are then ratified by the Senate after along hearing. In this way the appointments gain legitimacy from a democratically elected head of the state, as well as from the upper house, where each state is represented equally. In this system a discernible drawback is that, the judge by the virtue of being appointed by the President may carry a bias in favour of the President and his party. The US Constitution seeks to get over it by appointing a judge for life, i.e. till he voluntarily retires or dies in office. This ensures that once appointed, it is virtually impossible to remove a judge, which allows him complete freedom.

In the UK,where the parliament was all supreme and the House of Lords was the highest judicial body for centuries, the system was changed in the year 2005 by the Constitutional Reform Act 2005, which established the Supreme Court,which formally started functioning in the year 2009.The function of judicial appointment in the UK is now performed by the Judicial Appointments Commission. The JAC consists of 15 members out of which 12 are selected through a transparent competition and 3 are judicial members.

The Indian situation is therefore quite unique in terms of judicial appointments. The Constitution under Article 124 (2) provides that “Every Judge of the Supreme Court shall be appointed by the President by warrant under his hand and seal after consultation with such of the Judges of the Supreme Court and of the High Courts in the States as the President may deem necessary….” The word ‘President’ wherever mentioned in the Constitution is subject to the provisions of Article 74 which broadly provides that the President shall always act in aid and advise of the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers and has no discretion to act in his personal capacity.

These provisions were dealt with by the Supreme Court of India in the following three cases – S. P. Gupta v. Union of India – 1981 (also known as the Judges’ Transfer case), Supreme Court Advocates-on Record Association vs Union of India – 1993 and in Re Special Reference 1 of 1998, collectively known as the Three Judges Cases. The combined effect of these three cases is the evolution of the collegium system. The Supreme Court interpreted Article 124 (2) to be independent of Article 74 and favoured the setting up of a collegium of Chief Justice and senior judges of the Supreme Court, whose recommendation were made binding on the President. This made the Indian Supreme Court the most powerful apex court in the world as it was totally independent of the other branches of the government, in appointment of its own judges.

This made Indian judiciary lose its legitimacy and connect with the popular will. In the absence of any accountability or transparency, the collegium system nurtured judicial nepotism and allowed the dominance of the bar. Article 124 (3) (c) of the Constitution of India empowers the President to appoint an eminent jurist as the judge of the Supreme Court,but ironically there has not been a single appointment to the bench of Supreme Court under this category because of the dominance of the bar,which leaves little room for a good jurist to serve the apex court of India.

It is pertinent to note that UK abandoned its 700 year old tradition by enacting the constitutional reform for the establishment of Supreme Court. It is hence imperative for India also to act in a similar fashion and enact similar reforms, so that the judiciary is not completely out of sync with the popular will. It is with this requirement in mind that the new National Judicial Appointments Commission (NJAC) Act was enacted. The Indian NJAC will have the Chief Justice of India as the ex officio chairman of the commission, along with the two senior most judges of the Supreme Court as members. The commission will also have the Union Law Minister as an ex officio member and two eminent persons to be appointed by a committee consisting of CJI, the Prime Minister of India (PM) and the Leader of Opposition (LoP).

The above model of NJAC is possibly the best suited for the Indian constitutional setup because it provides legitimacy, where in the PM, LoP and the Law Minister, all three responsible to an elected legislature, have a significant say, besides the Judiciary. In this system, while the judiciary provides the legal expertise, so essential in the case of a judge, the other three members represent the popular will and derive legitimacy from being appointed by the democratic government.

The Indian NJAC model is remarkably better than the models functioning in both the US and the UK. In the US, there is no effective say of the Judiciary, and in the UK the say of the judiciary is quite limited. The vision of the Government of India in enacting the NJAC is appreciable in terms of the perfect balance it seeks to strike between the judiciary and the executive as well as between legitimacy and independence. The NJAC when it becomes functional will present to the world a model which could possibly be replicated by many other budding democracies in terms of Constitutional practices and ethics.

Raghav Pandey is a Research Associate with India Foundation. The views expressed are his own.

~ By Meena Singh Roy

In last one year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has successfully accomplished India’s active foreign policy approach towards its neighbourhood, particularly in Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Equally significant have been his visits to United States, Japan, Canada, Australia, China and Mongolia, reflecting India’s activism in re-energizing relations with these countries. However, India’s extended neighbourhood, which is a vital region of importance for the country, is likely to get the much needed impetus during the upcoming week-long visit of Prime Minister Modi to five Central Asian Republics (CARs) starting from July 6, 2015. He will participate in the BRICS and SCO Summit in the Russian city of Ufa from July 9-10 and visit Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan before the Summit and later to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Prime Minister’s visit is likely to focus on energy cooperation, connectivity, regional security issues and enhancing India’s image by formulating a geostrategic development partnership with CARs.

The new geo-political changes in the region; emergence of new extremist groups like Islamic State and their wider implications for the region; increasing violence in Afghanistan and growing concern about return of extremist forces in Afghanistan; increasing influence and presence of China in Eurasia, changing regional power balance and emergence of new conflict zones in West Asia demand that New Delhi formulate innovative ways to engage Central and West Asian countries to address and manage this new situation. Given its strategic interests in the region and the need for greater economic and energy cooperation between South,Central and West Asian region, India needs to re-activate its policy towards its extended neighbourhood.

 It is in this context that the upcoming visit of Prime Minister Modi to Central Asia needs to be viewed. Both from Indian and Central Asian perspective, this visit will go a long way in advancing and cementing India’s relations with the CARs. After late Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s visit in early 90s which became a major turning point in India-Central Asia relations, the forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Modi will be a significant one, as he will be the second Indian Prime Minister to visit all five countries, after former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s June 1955 ground breaking tour of this region. In addition, this would be an important step in projecting India’s serious effort to cement its ties with all five Central Asian partners.

From the Central Asian perspective, the visit of the Indian Prime Minister will be much awaited and desired one. Absence of visits by the Indian Prime Minister to this region has created heartburns when compared with the frequent visits of the Chinese President to this region.  Therefore, the decision of PM Modi to visit all CARs provides a unique opportunity not only to ensure New Delhi’s renewed interest in the region but also to convey a vital message that India wishes to move from its ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy to ‘Act Central Asia’ policy which has been the mantra of the present Modi government. The visit could not have come at a better time.

The Central Asian region holds great significance for India, both in strategic and geo-economic sense. The region holds major hydrocarbon and gas reserves, which are much needed by India. In the last two decades, the Central Asian region has witnessed an unprecedented integration into global economic and political mainstream.The region has successfully expanded its influence in the global energy scene. Its geographical positioning makes it a land-bridge between Asia and Europe. In addition, despite global financial crisis, the economic outlook remains favorable for the Central Asian countries. In this new geo-political situation, the CARs are building bilateral strategic partnerships and cooperative arrangements at regional and global levels to address the emerging security and economic challenges. While countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are building partnership based on their own politico-economic strength, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are working closely with Russia while exploring their options of cooperating with other major players as well. China has emerged as the key player in the region with offers of billions of dollars in loan to CARs to build energy and transport infrastructure. Russia, an important partner of CARs has also been working in close cooperation with China to enhance energy cooperation in light of its troubled relations with the West. In addition, one also witnesses increasing cooperation between Russia and Pakistan including close security and defence cooperation. In the backdrop of these new alignments and re-alignments in the region, and in the context of Central Asian countries wanting India to play a pro-active role, New Delhi has to not only act fast but also sustain this momentum of enhanced engagement to ensure and protect its interests.

Since, the visit by Indian PM has been a much awaited and anticipated one;there are many expectations from not only the regional countries but also from the observers of Central Asia in India. Perhaps, to meet the expectations from the region would be the biggest challenge for the PM. His primary task would be to build new relationships, and to protect and enhance India’s economic and commercial interests. So far, India has been successful in building political ties but has struggled to enhance economic and commercial ties. Its economic ties are the most unsatisfactory part of its overall good political relations with all CARs. India’s Trade with the region amounts to some us $1.6 billion as compared to China’s $50 billion.Its geographical connectivity with the region is still a major challenge.

 India because of its positive and benign image, its scientific and technological advancement, its strength in services and health sector and finally its economic potential enjoys a unique position to re-energise its current relations with the CARs. PM needs to take full advantage of India’s positive image, its historical and cultural ties to re-build stronger developmental partnership with the region. The key elements of India’s strategy towards this region could include:

• Developing a long-term innovative strategy to enhance engagement with the region, particularly in energy, transportation sector. Need to give further push to International North-South transport Corridor (INSTC).
• Embracing regionalism, besides bilateralism as a toolof its engagement with the Eurasian region. This would mean greater cooperation with China, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Russia in the regional context.
• Concentrating and supporting the Central Asian led regional groupings.
• Exploring prospects of cooperation between the CARs and the SAARC would go long way in augmenting cooperation between South and Central Asia.
• Capacity building in Central Asia to become the key area of India’s Central Asia policy.
• Encouraging big business houses’ involvement in Central Asian market.
• Announcing more fellowships for the Central Asian students and establishing additional Indian study centers in CARs and Central Asian study centers in India.
• Committing certain amount say $10 to 15 billion in next five years, to promote India-CARs engagement.

A successful visit of the PM will carve a new path for India to re-build strong and meaningful relations with the CARs.

Dr Meena Singh Roy is Research Fellow and Coordinator, West Asia Centre at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). The views expressed are her own.

~ By Shakti Sinha

The attack on the Afghan parliament reflects the deteriorating security situation in that country. The withdrawal of foreign troops and strategic choices made by President Ghani seem to have emboldened the Taliban who have now started capturing territory and holding on to them, a change from their earlier tactics of inflicting damage and creating insecurity in the countryside. No doubt, the Afghan security forces are holding on, repulsing the attack on Parliament killing all attackers but their ability to ensure security and stability is questionable.

The Taliban offensive is clear from the figures of civilian casualties in the first three months of 2015, where anti-government forces were responsible for 73 percent of all casualties. Though the total casualties are up eight percent compared to last year, the civilian casualties from mortar and rocket fire have gone up by 43 percent to 266 (62 deaths, 204 injuries). In earlier years, IEDs and suicide bombs were overwhelming responsible for all civilian deaths. Clearly the Taliban have now emerged as a battle-field fighting force. Targeted assassinations are also on the rise undercutting government’s credibility and creating fear in the minds of the Taliban’s enemies.
President Ashraf Ghani came to power as a result of compromise brokered between him and Dr Abdullah, now his chief executive, by the US which broke the deadlock caused by the inconclusive elections marred by allegations of large scale irregularities. Once the agreement was reached, the Election Commission declared Dr Ghani the winner but till date final voting figures have not been released. The circumstances leading to, and the actual formation of this unusual governing arrangement, which goes beyond Constitutional provisions are factors responsible for the political quagmire looming over Afghanistan. The government has not had a smooth sailing, and had great difficulty first in agreeing on names of ministers, and then getting parliament to ratify its nominations. In fact, the crucial post of defence minister has been vacant for nine months, with two ‘failed’ nominees. The Taliban timed the parliament attack to coincide with second Vice President Sarwar Danish’s introduction to parliament of Masoom Stanekzai as the defence minister nominee.

President Ghani’s unexpected approach to Pakistan, through China and directly, was recognised as a high risk strategy. Ghani’s correct assumption was that there can be no peace in Afghanistan unless the Pakistan army was on board, but whether they can be won over is the question. The Pak army are seen alternatively as controlling the Taliban, using them as their ‘strategic asset’, or having leverage over them. And Ghani rightly assessed that only the Chinese have leverage over the Pakistan army. The Afghan government handed over anti-Pak army elements, who had been given shelter earlier. Army-to-army links at the Corp commanders’ level, coordinated patrols and operations, deputing Afghan military cadets for training in Pakistan etc have been operationalised. Recently, ISI and the Afghan intelligence agency (NDS) have signed an agreement to carry out joint counter-terrorists operations and for the training of NDS personnel in Pakistan though the NDS chief opposed the agreement. Perhaps few believed that the ISI will keep its end of the bargain. In fact, the Afghan intelligence spokesperson, Hassib Sediqqi, said that an ISI officer helped the Haqqani network, a Taliban affiliate, carry out the attack on parliament. According to him, the suicide car bomb was manufactured in Peshawar, and the NDS were aware of the impending attack as early as June 10th. Consequently they had beefed up security arrangements at the complex.
Despite such unilateral concessions by Afghanistan, there has been no peace dividend. Far from the Taliban ceasing attacks and coming over-ground to engage with the Afghan government, it has in fact stepped up its attacks. The Taliban have made a show of consulting with foreign governments, Afghan civil society etc., it has singularly refused to respond to the Afghan government’s offer for talks. Instead, recently they seized that strategically important Musa Qala district of North Helmand. Over the last week, after surrounding Afghan security forces, they have taken control over two districts in Kunduz province – Chardara and Dasht-i-Archi.
Besides, there are also reports of the emergence of the Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan. The first reports that emerged in mid-2014 from Ghazni turned out to be false, but subsequently there have been a number of reports that disaffected Afghan insurgents have aligned with the IS, along with a number of Pakistani Taliban. Reportedly there have been a number of clashes between the Taliban and IS, though there could be a tendency to overestimate the latter’s strength. Many local government security chiefs cite the IS threat to be able to garner more resources, and small time ‘warlords’ claim allegiance to IS in order to increase their profile. Overall, the Taliban is too pervasive to allow the IS much space.
If these developments were not confusing enough, evidence is surfacing about an informal alliance between the Taliban and their former enemies, Iran. This is not the first time that Iran has supplied arms and ammunitions to the Taliban, against their common enemy, earlier the US and now, the IS. This tactical alliance is an act of brinkmanship, reflecting the extent to which different parties are prepared to go.
Constitutionally, Afghanistan faces a crisis. Parliament’s term is over but in the prevailing situation, elections are not possible. President Ghani has extended its term but is on shaky legal grounds. Inability to form a functional government for months led to paralysis in governance and severely tested the credibility of the agreement underpinning the government. Even at present the Supreme Court, the Attorney General’s office and the Constitutional Oversight Commission have acting heads. This inability to govern could easily morph into a test not just of credibility but of legitimacy, with questions being asked about the legality of the executive and the legislature, and even of the judiciary.
A deteriorating security environment, weakening economy as a result of draw down of development assistance and governance breakdown does not bode well for Afghanistan as well as its neighbourhood. Ghani’s gambit of trying to involve China to help stabilise seems dangerously close to failure. The question remains that were Afghanistan to implode, will its effects be limited to within its borders, or would it push the unravelling of its eastern neighbour?
What are India’s options? It cannot be seen opposing the Afghan outreach to Pakistan, lest it be seen as a spoiler, something Pakistan would be quick to pounce upon. For the outreach to succeed, unlikely as it seems, the Pak army would have to re-orient itself away from interfering in its neighbours or of using jihadis as strategic assets; a development India can only welcome. Meanwhile, India must strengthen its dialogue with all sections of Afghan society, using its development assistance in a transparent manner to maintain its reputation as a friend of the country. India represents a successful political and economic model and its importance as a reliable partner would override temporary setbacks. Meanwhile India should prepare for an implosion of Pakistan that should not be allowed to spiral out of control.

Shakti Sinha is Director, South Asian Institute for Strategic Affairs (SAISA), New Delhi. The views expressed are his own.

~ By Raghav Pandey

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Bangladesh has added several new dimensions to the already flourishing bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh. History is witness to the fact that both the countries have generally shared a good relationship ever since Bangladesh came into being, although there have been periods of turbulence. The recent visit of PM Modi saw 22 agreements being signed between the two countries; this renewed upsurge is considered the watershed moment in the history of bilateral relations between the two countries.

The most significant factor which makes this visit stand out is the ratification of the long pending land boundary agreement. This has been a significant achievement considering the fact that this issue has been long outstanding and was actually inherited by Bangladesh at birth.

In addition to the above there were 20 other agreements signed which are of mutual benefit to both the countries. To begin with, an agreement between the Bangladesh Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) and Life Insurance Corporation now allows this Public Sector Undertaking of India to do business in Bangladesh as a joint venture which will be known as LIC Bangladesh Ltd. A similar proposal by the LIC was rejected two years earlier by the IDRA.

It is also pertinent to note that Bangladesh has recently featured in the list of eleven countries that are predicted to economically match the BRICS countries during the course of the 21^st century by Goldman Sachs. Bangladesh even while having a lower per capita GDP income than India has performed much better on social indicators. For instance the fertility rate of Bangladesh is almost at the replacement rate which effectively means that Bangladesh is headed towards a stable population.

Hence Bangladesh presents to us a model of economy where qualitative social output is possible with lesser per capita income. This model presents to the world an opportunity of tremendous economic growth. It would be pertinent to remember that a major portion of Bangladesh’s economy is driven by foreign investment.

Armed with a ‘neighbourhood first’ policy and resolute political will, India is on the right path to effectively facilitate the business potential of its friendly neighbour. The two countries renewed the bilateral trade agreement and inter alia inked a Memorandum of Understanding on Use of Chittagong and Mongla Ports, by the virtue of which, Indian vessels can now ship cargo directly to these ports, which can then be taken to Bangladesh and even North Eastern part of India. At present the position is such that the cargo is routed through Colombo or Singapore ports and hence there is no direct accessibility which ultimately contributes to the increase in cost of trading.

A memorandum of understanding on blue economy and maritime cooperation in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean was also was signed to boost cooperation in regional waters which will focus on skill development, capacity building, pollution response, tsunami and cyclone warning and fishing etc. India has a huge knowledge base backed with tremendous resources in the field of marine bio-technology unlike Bangladesh, and Dhaka hopes to benefit from this MoU in terms of knowledge sharing.

Both the countries also renewed a protocol on inland water transit and trade which will bring about a new system in accordance with the policy of World trade Organisation (WTO). There were two agreements signed for starting trans-border international bus services on the Dhaka-Shillong-Guwahati and Kolkata-Dhaka-Agartala routes. The primary beneficiaries of these agreements will be the people of the north-eastern states of India who are literally landlocked. The buses will significantly reduce the time taken to travel and will also promote tourism in the north-eastern states. This, to a great extent, allows transit through Bangladesh without saying so.

The field of security also saw MoUs being signed. The Coast Guards of both the countries pledged to prevent human trafficking and the smuggling and circulation of fake currency. These agreements were signed primarily in the backdrop of the incidents where militants have attacked India and sought refuge in Bangladesh. It is pertinent to note that, right after Sheikh Hasina took charge in 2009, her government has cracked down on such elements and handed over four terrorists to India who were wanted in India for organising attacks in North East India.

With a series of trade and investment agreements, India promised a $2 billion credit facility for Bangladesh which is to be utilised for infrastructure, power, health and education projects. This credit line is in addition to the already existing $1 billion credit facility between the two countries. The present bilateral trade between the two countries amounts to $6.5 billion but there is a huge trade imbalance, which favours India. The aim of these agreements is to balance that very deficit, by setting up industries in Bangladesh. The other MoU in line with this objective is on exclusive Indian economic zones in Bangladesh. This is also the first time a neighbouring country has allowed India such zones exclusively for Indian firms and hence Dhaka deserves accolades for the same.

In the field of power, Prime Minister Modi has pledged India’s support to Bangladesh in its goal of achieving an installed capacity of 24,000 megawatts (MW) by 2021. Towards this, Reliance Power has signed an agreement with the state run Bangladesh Power Development Board to produce 3,000 MW of electricity at a cost of $3 billion.

Other noticeable agreements were signed between the Bangladesh Standards and Testing Institution and Bureau of Indian Standards on cooperation in standardization. The Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company Limited and Bharat Sanchar Nagar Limited also signed an agreement for leasing international bandwidth for internet at Akhaura and by the University of Dhaka.

This visit and the subsequent agreements most certainly reaffirms the commitment made by both the countries to each other in Indo-Bangladeshi Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Peace in 1972 immediately after the independence of Bangladesh. This visit has strengthened the linkages between the countries and this, in times, will lead to South Asian outreach towards South East Asia, through India’s North East, which could be a huge positive for the economy of this entire region.

In the past India’s relations with Bangladesh have swayed with the government in Dhaka, it is essential to make the close ties and cooperation irreversible, so that the relationship thrives irrespective of the parties in power, both in New Delhi and Dhaka. It is therefore essential that the common man should start deriving benefits from the agreements signed and people to people contact between the two countries must increase and the economies must get intertwined so as to enable the populace of the two countries to enjoy the fruits of development.  This will make the close cooperation between the two countries immune to political uncertainties, which often prevail in South Asia.

Raghav Pandey is a Research Associate with India Foundation. The views expressed are his own. 

~ By Alok Bansal and Anjana Deepthi

In the early hours of 09 June 2015, when a group of soldiers from 21 Para Commandoes, a special force of the Indian Army carried out operations against terrorist camps along Myanmar border, it was a clear proclamation to the world that the terrorists and enemies of India could no longer hope to be safe, by just going across India’s borders. The operation, which was carried out with the cooperation of Myanmar Armed Forces, was a stupendous success. It eliminated around 50 insurgents at two different locations along Nagaland and Manipur border, without any injury to the security forces. The camps targeted, were Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL) camp along Manipur border and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland- Khaplang (NSCN-K) camp along Nagaland border. This surgical operation was in response to the ambush on Indian Army in Chandel District of Manipur on 04 June 2015, where 18 soldiers of the 6th Dogra Regiment were killed and 11 others were injured. The United Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFW) a conglomerate of North Eastern insurgent groups led by NSCN-K had claimed responsibility for the attack on Indian Army.

By responding so soon and in an alien and densely forested environment, the special forces of the Indian Army have clearly shown the capability to carry out such swift and lethal operations. It was always known that the Indian Army had such a capability, but what this operation has clearly shown is that the new dispensation in India also had the political will to retaliate against any attacks on its troops, citizens and property. It clearly showed that the Government of India was not willing to remain silent against such attacks. The operation has hugely boosted the morale of Indian security forces and has shown to the global community that a new India has arrived on the horizon, which could not be taken lightly. It showed to the world that India is unwilling to be bullied by non-state actors and suffer the consequences of cross-border terrorism.

Colonel Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, the Minister of State for Information & Broadcasting, aptly conveyed the message that, it was not a game of Kabaddi, where an opponent could feel safe, just because he had crossed the line. This was clearly a signal to India’s other neighbours, some of which have been harbouring terrorists and sponsoring cross-border attacks. The Minister also confirmed that the operation took place with the cooperation and coordination of Myanmar. Although, the attack was entirely carried out by the Indian Army, the government and the Army in Myanmar was kept in the loop. The attack has opened a new chapter in India’s counter insurgency operations and will ensure that the non-state actors, especially in India’s North East will think many times before launching an attack on Indian citizens or security forces. In the past the modus operandi of these terrorists was to carry out an attack and cross the border. Once across they felt secure and could relax and recuperate. However, they would no longer be able to do so and feel safe across the borders.

North East of India has for long been a neglected area and the infrastructure in the borders has been abysmal. This gives the locals in the border areas of most of the North East states a feeling that they are ignored and no interest is shown by any political party towards their development and upliftment. This provides many of these underground movements space to thrive and grow. The recent successful visit of the Prime Minister to Dhaka and establishment of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) transport connectivity, will transform this region and make it a hub of activity. This has frightened the insurgent groups, who realise that the development and growth of this region, through which Asian Highway and Railways will traverse to connect South Asia with South East Asia, will make them irrelevant. This has led to a sudden spurt in their activities.

The operation has also highlighted the efficiency of our intelligence agencies, whose good work is often not recognised due to the clandestine nature of their work. The immediate trigger for the operations was the intelligence reports that the rebels were planning many more attacks on Indian soil and a group of insurgents had also reached India through the porous borders to carry out these strikes.

Some people believe that such operations should not have been publicised, as these are primarily covert operations, but they seem to forget that this is a change. After decades of inactivity the government has decided to strike and this needed to be announced. And this could have only been done when Indian troops were operating in conjunction with a friendly country like Myanmar. In future, the modus operandi could be different, with an element of deniability thrown in. This operation has forced India’s enemies to sit up and take notice of Indian intent and capabilities. The resultant unease was clearly evident in resolutions being passed against India in state assemblies and parliament in Pakistan.

Alok Bansal is the Director of India Foundation; Anjana Deepthi is a Research Associate with India Foundation. The views expressed are their own.

~ By Sudarshan Ramabadran

Undoubtedly, one of the hallmarks of the present Prime Minister Narendra Modi led Government has been the discernible transformation in the foreign policy front. India has admirably transformed from pursuing a hesitant foreign policy for over six decades to a proactive and purposeful foreign policy in positioning herself as an emerging global superpower. Special emphasis has been witnessed in the form of the ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’, which has been armed with the goal of regional co-operation.

Subject experts debating and discussing the growth chart of South Asian countries have always argued and reasoned that South Asian countries have increasingly acknowledged that the regional approaches and common actions are essential to accomplish their development goals. This is the very purpose for SAARC to come into being. There are several benefits for regional cooperation, namely, a country’s economic system becomes regionally interconnected, speeds up economic growth, enables the fight to eliminate poverty and ensures generation of employment opportunities. Position papers have always focussed on the fact that countries like Nepal, Afghanistan and Bhutan often find it difficult to fund the large infrastructural projects making a regional approach more attractive. Study has also pointed out that South Asian governments have recently given greater attention to regional and global linkages. Countries like Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan have emphasized on regional connectivity in their respective policy decisions.

It is in this context that Prime Minister Narendra Modi elucidated his vision in his first ever address at the SAARC summit, wherein he stressed on the need to integrate the SAARC countries on four vital pillars rail, road, power and transit :

“Today goods travel from one Punjab to another Punjab through Delhi, Mumbai, Dubai and Karachi – making the travel eleven times longer and the cost four times more. India too has its share of its responsibility – because of our size and location. I know that many of your goods have to do a Parikrama of India to reach their destinations. Just think of what we are doing to our consumers and to the environment. We must shrink the distance between our producers and consumers and resort to using the direct routes of trade. I know India has to lead, we will do our part, I hope each of you will too.”

True to these words at the previous SAARC summit, efforts on behalf of PM Modi and the Government of India have never ceased; the Prime Minister’s recent visit to Bangladesh gave birth to the much needed SAARC sub-regional development plan, which has been in the offing from the 2010 SAARC Summit. In specific, the recent signing of the Coastal Shipping agreement between India and Bangladesh integrates Nepal and Bhutan and eventually leads to boosting economic co-operation, bilateral trade and most significantly people-to-people contacts. The agreement which was actually forged between India and Bangladesh in 2010 but signed now, serves as a critical stepping stone for opening connectivity, not only between Bangladesh and India, but also with Bhutan and Nepal, helping identify the most efficient regional and international transport routes. Yes, the successful forward movement of the sub regional grouping of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) has made connectivity its priority in the form of the Coastal Shipping Agreement.

Soon after the signing of the agreement, India’s Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar outlined the importance of such a coastal agreement with Bangladesh, “We see this as really a very key understanding that would allow us to use our common bay and each other’s waterways for movement of cargo. As of now, the bulk of our trade takes place across the land border, and to the extent that we have sea trade this is done through distant ports. The goods are taken to distant ports and then they are reloaded into feeder vessels which then bring them into Chittagong. What this Coastal Shipping Agreement would do is basically enable the direct regular movement of ships between India and Bangladesh, which would bring the shipping time down from 30 to 40 days on average to seven to 10 days.”, he said

India’s trade with Bangladesh has grown rapidly during the past few years. Bangladesh is now India’s largest trade partner in South Asia. As per the agreement, the opening up of the coastal route between India and Bangladesh is expected to provide an alternative route for the transportation of Exim (Export-Import) cargo between the two countries. Exim trade between India and Bangladesh would be benefited by way of reduction in freight charges. It will also improve the utilization of port capacities of Indian ports and open up new opportunity for Indian coastal vessels. It will also help in decongestion of roads especially at the Land custom stations and integrated check posts at the Indo-Bangladesh boarder.

The agreement also allows Bangladesh to engage with Nepal and Bhutan in the sphere of bilateral trade. This is one of the most vital takeaways from the BBIN agreement; improved connectivity will help increase in bilateral trade across the 4 countries which in turn will help the countries reap the benefits of growth. Indian Prime Minister’s commitment to ease of doing business and speeding up of infrastructure facilities in the borders will only add to India’s consistent and continuous efforts of maximizing India’s trade ties with her immediate neighbours.

At the 16th SAARC Summit in Thimphu, Bhutan in 2010, member countries declared 2010-2020 as the ―Decade of Intra-regional Connectivity in SAARC. They unanimously acknowledged the importance of developing transport infrastructure and transit facilities, especially for the landlocked countries as a means to promoting intra-SAARC trade. This agreement is a significant achievement to achieve the objective of intra-regional connectivity.

The Coastal Shipping Agreement integrating BBIN is a meaningful step initiated by India in realising the ancient virtue of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam – the entire world is one family. This also reiterates how by operating on the 5 pristine pillars, namely Samman – Dignity and honour, Samvad – greater engagement and dialogue, Samriddhi – Shared prosperity, Suraksha – regional and global security and Sanskriti evam Sabhyata – cultural and civilizational linkages, as outlined in the BJP’s Foreign policy resolution adopted in the party’s national executive meeting, the Government is blending foreign policy with national economic development. Finally, here is a concrete measure that has given new vigour to PM Modi’s strong belief in the shared future of our neighbourhood – Together we grow!

Sudarshan Ramabadran is a Research Associate with India Foundation. The views expressed are his own. 

~ By Sriharsha Masabathula

As Myanmar undergoes political and economic transition, India is keen on rediscovering its traditional role in the international community. As the international community moves to offer various synergies to support Myanmar’s on-going reform process, India has reaffirmed through its “Act-East” Policy that Myanmar is one of it’s most significant partners towards the East.

Historically, India and Myanmar were part of the same administrative setup during the colonial era. More significantly, the preeminence of Buddhism in Myanmar and Buddhism’s historical relationship with India, gives an average citizen of Myanmar a natural affinity towards India. It is often remarked that “Myanmar can get anything from any part of the world, but for Nirvana, it needs India”! Today Yangon, once famously known as Rangoon, houses the tomb of Bahadur Shah Zafar, the last Mughal Emperor, where he died in Exile. The House of Memories is a delight to visit, with pictures of Netaji Subash Chandra Bose with the Burmese national hero General Aung San lined along the walls, signaling a strong bond of friendship and trust between them. More significantly, India is omnipresent in Myanmar, through food, celebration of Indian festivals, business, religion, language, and more, signifying a strong zeal of many present-day residents to stay connected to their Indian ancestrial roots.

Within India as well, Burma strikes a chord with many, particularly among the ancestry of many business communities. Even today, many places in South-India have localities named after Burma. The “Burma Bazaar” in Chennai is one of the most notable, but other smaller localities exist in many towns, such as the quiet “Burma Colony” in the coastal-town of Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh, where veterans stand ready to relay stories of themselves or their forefathers who traveled to Burma amidst testing circumstances to make a living, or sometimes a fortune. In recent times, many young Indian entrepreneurs are exploring the country’s vast business potential, often driven by passion to reconnect with experiences of their ancestors. The yearning for a more active connection from both sides stands deep today, and to negate the risk of losing this fragile link in the future, it is important to document and preserve the memories of our ancestors, and support those who are striving to reestablish and further strengthen that connection.

Geographically, the most obvious line of interaction between the two nations is of course, trade and commerce, through both road and sea-routes. Currently, the bilateral trade between India and Myanmar amounts to over USD 1 Billion, but there is enormous scope for enhancement, particularly through investment in infrastructure, and trade in commodities, pharmaceuticals, textiles etc. In terms of improving connectivity, which is a critical factor, the prospects look bright with the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project, which is expected to significantly reduce shipping time, paving way for increased collaboration, upon its completion in 2016. A tri-lateral highway is also being constructed across the Indian North-east, Myanmar and Thailand which will open up direct road access to Thailand from India, also facilitating a cost-effective entry into the ASEAN markets for Indian businesses and investments. Most urgently, however, an Indian bank is needed in Myanmar, which will not only provide incentive for more pro-active Indian investments in Myanmar, but also facilitate better accounting of existing trade and fund-transfers, which are presently routed through Banks in Singapore, or via other means.

Government-to-Government (G2G) cooperation has been on-going with Myanmar, most prominently over the last decade in various sectors such as defense, technology, skill-development and commerce. Various linkages have been established, for instance between the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI) and the Myanmar Computer Federation (MCF). Many exchange programs for capacity building activities and cooperation, particularly in the defense, governance and administration sectors are also underway. It is, however, widely perceived that the relationship though cordial, lacks intimacy. An important factor is to carefully shape the perception of Myanmar citizens on India as a partner, and if G2G initiatives are not reflected in civil society, India may lose-out on being acknowledged for its substantial contributions to Myanmar’s reform process.

Another important issue concerning India – Myanmar relations is the state of affairs on the border areas, which have long been notorious for conflict, illicit trade, and civil unrest. In recent times, the situation in Rakhine State, along the western coast-line of Myanmar, has increasingly become a cause for concern. The complex history of this region bestows the place with diverse communities, and ineffective management is a recipe for disaster. Most notably, there was large-scale migration to and from Myanmar during colonial times for economic opportunities, and the introduction of new administration and land laws in the region by the British, upset the existing social fabric, with dominant groups often losing social-power to newly designated local leaders.

Today, the Rohingya community in this region remains stateless, staying in Internally Displaced People (IDP) camps, with little access to basic needs. Historically, there have been people living in this region under different administrative setups, including small kingdoms, but many communities also migrated between this region and elsewhere, courtesy the colonial times. In recent times, there has been increased intelligence that many extremist elements are taking advantage of the unrest in the region to distort the narrative, causing further confusion regarding the identity of the Rohingya people, and the real issues at hand. The intertwined history of this region needs better documentation, and balanced representatives to identify the key-issues, and a cohesive strategy to address it.

The primary goal must be to uphold human rights and civil liberties, but at the same time, elements which are diverting the discourse, and misguiding the commons, must be dealt with immediately and severely. As a long-term solution, the region must be empowered with social and economic progress, failing which the state of affairs in the region will only create more room for disaster. India has much to offer on security and conflict management in this region. For instance, the historic alliance between BJP and PDP in Jammu and Kashmir stands as a befitting testimony to India’s often underrated success in achieving inclusive democratic objectives in a diverse and challenging environment. Exchanging similar best-practices will not only strengthen the stability of Myanmar in its reform process, but also help facilitate improved socio-economic and cultural relations in the region.

An often less-noted dimension of cooperation is natural resource management. As Myanmar is getting ready to implement its environmental conservation law, India could offer valuable lessons through its own experience, particularly in managing national parks, biodiversity preservation, stakeholder engagement, or even environmental impact assessments. India’s numerous biodiversity hotspots could serve as sites for knowledge sharing, and also institutional capacity building through high-quality training facilities such as the Forest Research Institute in Dehradun. Moreover, water is an abundant resource in Myanmar, with high need for prudent management, and a priority sector in India for sustainable development. Going forward, there may be room for much collaboration between both nations on water policy, river basin management and even hydro-energy. Lessons from India may not only be useful, but also more relevant when compared to similar technical assistance from Western counterparts.

The tryst between India and Myanmar is truly multi-dimensional, and forging a mutually-beneficial people-driven strategy for building a civilizational partnership has the potential to bring much prosperity to both nations, which are ready to erupt on the global platform, each in their own way.

Sriharsha Masabathula is a Young India Fellow, 2014. The views expressed are his own.