Introduction
The United Nations designated July 11 as World Population Day to raise awareness of the urgency and importance of population issues worldwide. Today, there is greater awareness that unbridled population growth impacts the environment and human development. In an interconnected world with high aspirations, each nation strives to give its people a better quality of life and higher living standards. However, when confronted with the harsh realities of high population growth, achieving this goal is a delusion. The world’s population is growing by 81 million annually, and we’re on track to reach 10 billion by 2057.[1] This growth is not sustainable.
The last two centuries have seen phenomenal growth in the world’s population. From one billion in 1804, it has grown to 8 billion in 2022. It is slated to touch 9 billion in 2037 and 10 billion in 2057. An analysis of world population data shows that advanced countries have slower population growth rates than poorer countries.
Since World War II, no country has gone from developing to developed status without first reducing its population growth rate. This enables greater investment in education, health, and development expenditures, leading to increased economic productivity, greater employment, and higher incomes.[2]
The India-China Equation
In April 2023, India achieved parity with China in its demography, with a population of 1,425 million. Soon after, it surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country. In 1970, China’s population stood at 823 million, while India’s was 558 million. Both countries had nearly identical total fertility levels then, with just under six births per woman over a lifetime. Within a decade, 
China brought down its total fertility rate (TFR) to under three births per woman. In stark contrast, it took India an additional two and a half decades to achieve the same level of TFR. According to UN projections, India’s population will rise to 1.67 billion by 2050. Conversely, having achieved population stability, China will decline from its present level to 1.37 billion.[3] In percentage terms, India’s population growth for 2024-2050 is projected at 17 percent, while China registers a negative growth of 3 percent. This works well to China’s advantage and to India’s detriment in becoming a developed nation by 2047.
In 1970, both India and China were developing countries with low GDPs. China’s was USD 92.6 billion, while India’s was USD 62.4 billion. The per capita incomes of both countries were also almost the same, with India at USD 112 and China at USD 113. By 1980, India’s per capita income was USD 266, and China was considerably behind at USD 194. Economic growth patterns altered significantly after 1980, with China achieving high growth rates as it modernised its economy and successfully implemented small family norms. By 2000, China’s per capita income had shot up to USD 4,450 while India had a modest USD 1,357. Two decades later, in 2022, India’s per capita income had marginally increased to USD 2,388, while China’s per capita income jumped considerably to USD 12,720. As China achieved population stability, its per capita income rose sharply, indicating the positive linkage between low population growth and the economic well-being of a country.
If present population growth trends continue until 2050, India will have an additional 245 million people, while China, having achieved population stability, will have 55 million less from current levels. This impacts the availability of resources for their respective populations and the per capita income of their citizens.[4]
Developed Vs. Developing Countries
Let us compare the population growth rates of five developed
and five developing countries for the first half of the twenty-first century (2000 CE to 2050 CE). Among the five developed countries chosen for comparison, the US has a decadal growth rate of 7.9% and France 3.7%. Japan shows a negative growth rate, while Germany and Italy have maintained their population levels and achieved population stability. All five are economically advanced countries and are part of the G7 grouping. The developing countries show a different set of statistics. Nigeria shows a whopping 41% decadal growth rate, with Pakistan at 27.4%. Indonesia and Argentina stand at 9.6%, whereas Bangladesh is at 11.3%.[5] (See Figure: Decadal Growth Rate: Developed and Developing Countries. Data for 2000, 2020 and 2050 for each country). Till 2050, improving the economic prospects of Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Argentina will be difficult, but their respective administrations can manage it as the growth rate has been partially contained. On the other hand, considering Pakistan’s and Nigeria’s high population growth rates, it will be nearly impossible for both countries to achieve financial prosperity unless they drastically reduce their population. Both countries will face extremely challenging times ahead.
In 2023, the US (340 million), Indonesia (278 million), and Pakistan (240 million) were the third, fourth, and fifth largest countries by population, respectively. In 2050, the third, fourth, and fifth largest countries by population (projected) will be Nigeria (377 million), the US (375 million), and Pakistan (368 million). For the 27 years (2023-2050), Nigeria’s population, which was 224 million in 2023, would have increased by 68% in 2050. The US population growth for this period is 10 percent, while that of Pakistan is very high at 53 percent.[6] The statistics concerning Bangladesh also make for an interesting analysis. When Bangladesh became independent in 1971 following the Liberation War, its population of 68 million was higher than that of West Pakistan, which had a population of 60 million. In 2023, the population of Bangladesh was 172 million, well below that of Pakistan (240 million). By 2050, Bangladesh will have a population of 203 million—an increase of 18 percent over the 2023 level. In terms of numbers, it will be a whopping 165 million below that of Pakistan.
Factors that contribute to the high population growth of some of the developing countries like Nigeria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh include religio-cultural beliefs, social taboos, poverty, female illiteracy, and lack of access to birth control and family planning services. All these will have to be tackled on a war footing. However, religious orthodoxy in some Muslim-dominated countries will likely negate all attempts at promoting small family norms. India, with its sizeable Muslim population, will face similar challenges.
The Challenges for India
The growth of the population in India is uneven. Some states have achieved fair population stability, while others still have a long way to go. There is also a disparity in population growth within states, which has altered the demographic balance in many districts. This has political, social, and security challenges and impacts the concerned states’ economic development. Another factor which adds to population growth in certain states is illegal immigration.
Demographic Changes in Assam
In Assam, demographic change has occurred due to the illegal migration of Muslims from Bangladesh as well as the higher population growth rate of the Muslim community. Assam has the highest percentage of Muslims in all the states of India. (It will be the second highest as and when statehood is restored to the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir).
On 17 July, Assam’s Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma expressed concern about the impact of the changing demography on his state. “It is a big issue for me,” he said, adding, “In Assam, the Muslim population has reached 40% today. In 1951, it was 12%. We have lost many districts. This is not a political issue for me. It is a matter of life and death.”[7] On 15 August, in his address after hoisting the national flag in Guwahati, he said the indigenous people of Assam were feeling threatened by demographic change as they have become a minority in 12 to 13 districts and that Assam’s futurewas not secure.[8] This is not filibustering but is based on hard data.
Assam has experienced immigration since 1901, but since 1971, there has been large-scale illegal immigration into the state, mainly from Bangladesh.[9] The influx of immigrants has impacted the state’s economy and caused adverse effects on the delicate ethnic balance within the population, leading to social and ethnic unrest. This has led to a decline in the availability of cultivable land per capita, which, for a state predominantly dependent on agriculture, leads to inefficiencies due to the small land holdings. In addition, encroachments on tribal and forest land have created social and ecological problems. Also, a burgeoning population in a situation of high unemployment and underemployment puts significant pressure on the labour market.
The state’s population increased from 80.3 lakh to 312.05 lakh from 1951 to 2001.[10] Besides concerns about illegal immigration into the state, fears have been expressed about the demographic changes taking place, especially in the border districts. The decadal growth of the Muslim population has been significantly higher than the rest of the Assamese population, averaging over 30 per cent since 1961. For the non-Muslim population, the decadal growth rate dropped from 35.72 per cent in 1971 to 15.01 per cent in 2001 and 11.22 per cent in 2011. If current population trends continue, Muslims will be the single largest religious group by 2050 in Assam. As of now, a worrying trend is that a large number of districts already have a Muslim majority. This is primarily caused by Bangladeshi immigrants, who are easily identifiable by their Urdu mixed Bengali accent. Districts like Gopalpura, Bongaigaon, Borpeta, Darang, Nagaon, Marigaon, Karimganj and Hailakand, which were Hindu-majority districts in 1971, had become Muslim-majority districts by 2011.[11] As of 2021, 11 of Assam’s 32 districts were Muslim-majority.
Consequently, the indigenous people of Assam are being reduced to a minority in their state. The influx of minorities creates a crisis of identity, endangering the people’s economic, political, and cultural lives. This has security implications, too, considering the narrow width of the Siliguri Corridor. The concerns expressed by Assam’s Chief Minister are genuine and must be urgently addressed.
West Bengal
Like in Assam, there are serious concerns about demographic change in West Bengal. In 1971, Muslims constituted 12 percent of the state’s population. Since then, the state’s Muslim population has increased phenomenally, reaching above 30%. The excessive growth of the Muslim population is mainly due to two factors—the higher TFR of the Muslim community and illegal immigration from Bangladesh. In contrast, in neighbouring Bangladesh, the Hindu population, which was 30% in 1947, reduced to 8% in 2011.[12]
Infiltration from Bangladesh into West Bengal results from porous borders, as 11 of the 23 districts of the state border Bangladesh. These are South 24 Parganas, North 24 Parganas, Nadia, Murshidabad, Maldah, West Dinajpur (South), West Dinajpur (North), Darjeeling, JalpaiguriandKooch Behar. According to the 2011 census, three districts, Murshidabad, Malda, and Uttar Dinajpur, now have a majority Muslim population. In two districts, Birbhum and South 24 Parganas, the Muslim population is close to 40% and in seven districts, it is between 20% and 30%. This issue is of concern because illegal immigration has caused a change in demography in the districts near the Siliguri Corridor—a narrow stretch of land around the city of Siliguri. This corridor, also known as the Chicken’s Neck, is just 20-22 km at its narrowest width and connects Northeast India to the rest of the country. Anti-national elements have threatened to sever this geo-political and geo-economical corridor from the rest of the country. For example, during the CAA protests, Sharjeel Imam, an activist and one of the faces behind the Shaheen Bagh protest, called for cutting off Assam and other states of Northeast India from the rest of India.[13] He was not the only voice in India threatening violence against the Indian state. Even in Bangladesh, radical elements within that country have been asking for including Muslim-dominated border areas of India into Bangladesh.
The strategy for breaking India involves a five-step process. This consists of increasing numbers, grabbing territory, creating social terror, promoting separatism and then, finally, breaking away. Some districts in West Bengal are well into Stage 3 of this process. Sandeshkhali in North 24 Parganas is a prime example. At the turn of the century, many middle-class Hindus had left their villages, and only the poor Hindu Janjati community was left behind, which was reduced to a minority. The land was taken away using political identity as a tool. It was not just a case of social terror and sexual exploitation of women by people like Sheikh Shahjahan but involves extensive land grabbing too.[14] This process needs to be reversed.
Kerala
Kerala’s success in adopting small family norms can be attributed to its matrilineal system, education spread, and improved health care. In addition, specific changes in political-economic policies and development strategies like investment in literacy, health infrastructure and family planning contributed to the state’s changing demographics. As a result, the decadal growth rate, which was 26.29% in 1971, was reduced to 19.24% in 1981, 14.32% in 1991, 9.43% in 2001, and 4.86% in 2011.[15]
This has placed Kerala in league with countries like Germany, Japan, and France. It has also placed Kerala as the state with the highest percentage of people aged 60 years and above, which has increased from 5.1% to 16.5% over the last six decades.[16]
However, demographic change has not been uniform across different religious groups, as seen by the population growth by religion from 1961 to 2011. The Hindus, who comprised 60.9% of the population of Kerala in 1961, were down to 54.9% in 2011. Similarly, the Christian population dropped to 18.4% in 2011 from 21.2% in 1961. However, the Muslim population increased from 17.9% in 1961 to 26.6% in 2011.[17]
The decadal population growth rate in the Hindu, Christian, and Muslim communities indicates that for 1961-2011, the Muslim decadal rate of growth has been over ten percentage points higher than that of the Hindus and Christians. (See Table: Decadal Growth Rate by Religion). In terms of numbers, the Muslim population increased by 193% from 1961 to 2011. For the same period, the Hindu and Christian population increased only by 78.15% and 71.5 % respectively. By 2051, Muslims will comprise 34.6% of the population of Kerala. Hindus will be 49.3%, and the Christian population will likely be 16.1%.
One of the reasons for higher birth rates among Muslims in Kerala is early marriage. The number of females married before the legal age of marriage in Kerala in 2011 was 36.1% for Muslims, 12.8% for Hindus and 5.9% for Christians.[18] The spread of Islamic radicalisation in Kerala, along with the changing demographic pattern, does not bode well for the state and would require urgent corrective measures.
The Need for Reforms and Legislation
If India is to become a developed country by 2047, population control measures must complement the development effort. Ideally, the TFR in all states and communities must be brought down to below two, and the decadal population growth should be reduced to zero. Preferably, like China, it should be below zero for a few decades. This would necessitate specific measures to promote small family norms, especially amongst India’s Muslim community.
Reforms within the Muslim community must preferably be self-driven, with the state acting as a facilitator. Organisations like Musawah, a worldwide Islamic feminist movement for equality and justice in the Muslim family and family laws, have been working on these issues since 2009[19] but have only had a limited impact. The state can support movements that seek gender justice and assist in initiatives that lead to reform of the Muslim Personal Law and give women equitable matrimonial property regimes.
To prevent child marriages, the Assam government, on 22 August, moved a bill in the Assembly to repeal the Assam Moslem Marriages and Divorce Act of 1935. Repealing this pre-independence Act was considered necessary as it hadthe scope of misuse by authorisedlicences (Muslim marriage registrars) as well as by citizens for underage/minor marriages and forcefully arranged marriages without the consent of the parties. A new bill was introduced—the “Assam Compulsory Registration of Muslim Marriage and Divorce Bill, 2024,” which mandates Muslims to register marriages and divorces with the government and eliminates the role of the Qazi.[20]Such initiatives are needed across the country to eradicate child marriages.
The Maharashtra government’s “LadkiBahin Yojana,” if implemented with a focus on small family norms, could potentially lead to many positive outcomes. The scheme is available to all women aged 23 to 65 whose annual family income is below Rs 2.5 lakh. It provides financial assistance of Rs 1500/ per month, three free LPG cylinders annually, and educational fee waivers for poor girls. By restricting such schemes to those with two or fewer children, the larger purpose of incentivising those following small family norms would be met, benefitting women and society in general. This could pave the way for a more sustainable and prosperous future with a smaller but more empowered population. The potential benefits of this policy are significant and should be a source of hope for our nation’s future. In time, all welfare schemes, such as Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, Nal Se Jal Yojana, PM-Krishi Samaan Yojana, etc, should be linked to incentivise those promoting small family norms.
Perhaps an additional scheme, besides the “LadkiBahin Yojana,” could be considered for girls in the 16-30-year-old age group. Here, financial incentives could be provided to unmarried girls in the 16-18-year group. Beyond 18 years to 30 years, the scheme could be linked to the spacing of children, with the scheme being withdrawn on the birth of a third child. In addition, a free college education could be provided to single-child families as an incentive for those who have sacrificed to bring up an only child.
Free rations for people below the poverty line could be restricted to two children to disincentivise those wanting more. Similarly, those with two or fewer children should be given preference in government jobs, as opposed to those with three or more children. In all elections, from the Panchayat level to the National Assembly, small family norms could be made mandatory for those who wish to contest.
Conclusion
India is on the cusp of a journey that can propel it to the status of a developed country by 2047. The challenges ahead for the people of India lie in multiple domains, one of which is the need to control population growth. The nation’s ability to address this issue and achieve a near-zero decadal growth rate will determine whether it can achieve this goal.
Author Brief Bio: Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation
References:
[1]https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/world-population-day-what-will-the-world-look-like-in-2050#:~:text=By%202050
[2] https://www.populationmedia.org/the-latest/the-economic-benefits-of-family-planning-a-cost-benefit-analysis#:~:text=Smaller family sizes enable couples, greater employment, and higher incomes.
[3] https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-no-153-india-overtakes-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/
[4]Ibid.
[5]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#google_vignette
[6]Ibid. Numbers in parentheses refer to the total population (in millions) on 1 July of
the referenced year.
[7] https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/himanta-biswa-sarma-claims-muslim-population-in-assam-now-40-matter-of-life-and-death-101721206395322.html
[8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/assam/assam-threatened-by-demographic-change-says-himanta-biswa-sarma/article68528722.ece
[9] Ihttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/228118982_Illegal_Migration_into_Assam_Magnitude_Causes_and_Economic_Consequences
[10]Census of India, 2011.
[11]https://www.jetir.org/papers/JETIR1906596.pdf
[12]https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/06/06/the-unrecognized-demographic-situation-of-west-bengal-and-consequences-yet-to-occur/
[13] https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/agitate-and-cut-off-chicken-neck-corridor-to-isolate-assam-from-india-sharjeel-imam-1640117-2020-01-25
[14] https://organiser.org/2024/02/19/222367/bharat/__trashed-6/
[15] https://csesindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/WP-31-Demographic-Changes-in-Kerala-and-the-Emerging-Challenges-An-Assessment-compressed.pdf
[16] https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2023/4/17/as-india-becomes-most-populous-an-ageing-trend-in-kerala
[17]https://janasamkhya.net/online/1819/006.pdf
[18]See Note 17.
[19] https://www.musawah.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/WhoProvidesWhoCares_En.pdf
[20] https://www.deccanherald.com/india/assam/assam-govt-tables-bill-to-abolish-1935-era-law-on-muslim-marriages-divorces-to-check-child-marriage-in-state-3160263
