When India achieved independence in 1947, its land and resources had been ravaged by over two centuries of colonial rule, severely impeding its economic development. India’s share of global GDP, which stood at about 23 per cent in 1700 CE, had declined to approximately three per cent by 1950. Poverty was widespread; literacy levels were abysmally low at around 12 per cent, agricultural output was barely at the subsistence level, and the industrial base was frail. Since then, the nation has made significant strides in its development paradigm. Today, India is self-sufficient in food grains, the industrial base is strong, and literacy levels are above 77 per cent. India is currently the world’s fifth-largest economy (USD 4.27 trillion) by GDP, behind the USA (30.34 trillion), China (19.53 trillion), Germany (4.92 trillion), and Japan (4.27 trillion).[1] The last decade has specifically been a period of economic growth, where India has emerged in the top five rankings from being earlier a part of the fragile five.
Nevertheless, India still has a considerable journey ahead to become a developed economy. India’s GDP per capita at the end of 2024, at USD 2,940, is abysmally low, ranking 141 globally. As of now, the developed countries have a significantly higher level of per capita GDP. India is far behind the USA (USD 89,680), Canada (USD 55,890), Germany (USD 57,910), the United Kingdom (USD 54,280), France (USD 49,530), Italy (USD 41,710), and Japan (USD 35,610). It is also well behind China (USD 13,870) and Brazil (USD 10,820).[2]
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision for India to become a developed nation by 2047 encompasses economic growth, technological upgrades, infrastructure development, social empowerment, and sustainability. In May 2020, he stressed building a self-reliant India—Atmanirbhar Bharat—as a foundational step towards becoming a Viksit Bharat (developed nation). By 2022, the Government of India had explicitly set the goal of a “Viksit Bharat” by 2047. In December 2023, the ‘Viksit Bharat @2047: Voice of Youth’ initiative was launched to actively involve the youth in shaping the nation’s future. The Union Budget 2025 was again focussed on ‘Viksit Bharat @2047’, emphasising agriculture, MSMEs, investments and exports to accelerate India’s journey. This would be accompanied by transformative reforms in the financial sector, regulatory policies, taxation, power, urban development and mining.
If India is to become a developed country by 2047, its economy must grow to USD 30 trillion, with a per capita income of USD 18,000. According to the Economic Survey 2024-25, 8% growth at constant prices is needed for the next two decades to reach the ‘Viksit Bharat’ goal by 2047. This ambitious target requires nurturing an entrepreneurial environment within the country, creating a favourable regulatory environment and decentralised governance, and stressing innovation and technology to boost the manufacturing sector.[3]
Approximately 95 per cent of India’s international trade by volume and 70 per cent by value is conducted via sea transport.[4] To transform India into a USD 30 trillion economy, manufacturing must receive a substantial boost for domestic consumption and exports. Trade flows are hence set to increase exponentially from current levels. Consequently, seaborne trade will be a crucial factor in India’s ascent. India thus has a vital interest in ensuring the safety and security of the Oceans in line with Vision SAGAR—Security And Growth for All in the Region. The maritime sector is thus the key to India’s quest to become a developed nation.
Maritime India Vision 2030
Geography has placed India central to the Indian Ocean. Its strategic location, economic interests, naval power, and historical ties with all littoral states make it a key player in the region. India’s SAGAR doctrine seeks to maintain regional security and stability. The country sees itself as a net security provider and first responder in natural calamities.
In February 2021, the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways released its vision document—the Maritime India Vision (MIV) 2030.[5] This 300-page document serves as a blueprint for sector stakeholders to work towards growing the Indian maritime sector and making it globally competitive. Recognising that India’s maritime sector plays a crucial role in its overall trade and growth, MIV 2030 has identified over 150 initiatives across 10 themes, covering all facets of the maritime sector. It looks into developing port infrastructure to include inland water transport, enhancing logistic efficiency through technology and innovation, strengthening the policy and institutional framework to support all stakeholders, and enhancing India’s global share in shipbuilding, repair and recycling. The document provides a comprehensive framework for the holistic development of India’s maritime sector. The Ministry’s Sagarmanthan Portal monitors and evaluates the outcomes of MIV 2030 and offers comprehensive visibility and transparency into the progress made in various fields.
To emphasise the maritime sector’s importance, the Union Budget for 2025 introduced a Maritime Development Fund (MDF) of Rs. 25,000 crore (USD2.87 billion) to promote infrastructure and competitiveness within the maritime industry. In addition, shipbuilders have been offered easier access to infrastructure credit and customs duty exemptions for raw materials and parts. The aim is to enhance India’s maritime capability through fleet expansion and support to the shipbuilding ecosystem to reduce reliance on foreign shipping companies. At present, Indian vessels comprise just 2.6 percent of the global fleet. According to a report prepared by the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), “a 25% [market] share by an Indian shipping line can save USD 50 billion a year and will also reduce arm-twisting by foreign shipping lines on medium and small businesses.”[6] The government will likely set up a dedicated container shipping line to prevent local shippers from being over-dependent on foreign-flagged carriers. The new entity is expected to be named Bharat Container Line.[7] This initiative demonstrates India’s long-term vision to become a major player in the maritime sector.
While India ramps up its maritime capability through MIV 2030, it must also be cognizant of other challenges that could threaten free and open navigation in the Indian Ocean. These challenges pertain to geopolitical rivalries, maritime security threats, and the impact of climate change.
Geopolitical Rivalries
India and the countries in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are concerned about China’s growing military and economic reach in the IOR. Even smaller countries that leverage the Sino-Indian rivalry to gain an advantage are now concerned, as their freedom of manoeuvre to navigate China’s growing influence is shrinking. For India, China’s blue-water ambitions remain a matter of concern. China’s 2015 defence white paper lists eight strategic tasks for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Two of these are to safeguard China’s security and interests in new domains and the security of China’s overseas interests. It calls upon the PLA Navy (PLAN) to shift its focus from “offshore waters defence” to the combination of “offshore waters defence” with “open seas protection” and build a combined, multi-functional and efficient marine combat force structure.[8] The defence documents of 2017 and 2019 also emphasise the role of the PLA in protecting Chinese citizens and properties overseas.
Presently, China has limited capability to carry out strategic tasks in the Indian Ocean despite rapidly developing its naval fleet and deploying many such assets there. However, China has developed a string of ports—Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh, and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar—sometimes referred to as the ‘String of Pearls’—which provide China with significant strategic and economic influence. China’s military base in Djibouti, established in 2017, is strategically positioned at a choke point between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. From here, the PLAN has carried out anti-piracy missions, marking the first time the PLAN has conducted an operational mission in the Western Indian Ocean.
India is concerned about the growing Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean and, more specifically, in its immediate vicinity, as evidenced by the presence of Chinese naval vessels in Sri Lanka’s coastal waters and the sale of Chinese submarines and naval platforms to Bangladesh. The China-Pakistan nexus is also a matter of concern to India, especially given the strategic nature of that cooperation, which also extends to the maritime domain. Pakistan has promoted China’s growing interests in the Indian Ocean and received economic, technological and military assistance in return, forcing India to expand its naval power and align with like-minded states.
The Indian Maritime Security Strategy (IMSS-2015), released by the Indian Navy in 2015, articulates the significance of the Indian Ocean for India’s security and aims to establish substantial control and influence to counter the rise in Chinese activity. For India, the entire Indian Ocean—from the East coast of Africa to the Strait of Malacca—is its priority area. India sees itself as a first responder in the region as well as a net provider of security for its friends and partners. The Red Sea, too, falls within India’s primary area of interest, and the western coast of Africa, the Mediterranean Sea and other areas of national interest based on considerations of the Indian diaspora, overseas investments and political reasons within its secondary area of interest.
Over the past decade, India has invested heavily in the region through foreign policy engagements and a strategic approach to the maritime domain. India’s USD 100 million line of credit to Mauritius for security and military spending in 2021 underlines this trend, as does the 2022 memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Sri Lanka to establish a Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre as part of India’s SAGAR initiative.
In terms of numbers, China vastly outnumbers India in the naval platforms it can bring to a contest. However, most of China’s fleet is reserved for a war in the western Pacific, close to its home ports. What it can bring to a conflict in the Indian Ocean is perhaps less than one-third of the Chinese navy’s overall vessels. The PLAN’s emerging carrier battle groups are also not yet ready for engagements with capable adversaries and perhaps require at least a decade to conduct effective combat missions. In addition, any Chinese flotilla in the Indian Ocean would depend on at-sea replenishment as they lack naval bases in the region. While the Chinese Navy is building supply ships such as the Type 901, these are not a substitute for safe and friendly ports of call. These challenges for China are a critical asset for India.
Another challenge for China is that in the event of hostilities with India, India’s tri-service Andaman and Nicobar Command is strategically located to guard the choke points between the Indonesian archipelago and the Indian Ocean. In addition, Beijing lacks reliable air cover for operations in the Indian Ocean. Despite the progress made by China in carrier-based aviation, it is still years away from achieving a level of competence where it could compete head-to-head with India in India’s backyard.
India’s geography gives it a strategic advantage in effectively deploying naval power in the Western and Eastern Indian Oceans. This is India’s backyard. Its resident naval power is further enhanced by naval cooperation with friendly countries. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), an informal strategic forum comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, has, as one of its prime objectives, to work for a free, open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. Under successive US administrations, the Quad has become a crucial regional security platform, gaining traction in response to Beijing’s increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.[9]
China’s geographical challenge in the Indian Ocean arguably prevents it from engaging India in a high-intensity naval conflict. China’s lack of ports and bases to resupply a major conflict poses a challenge that India can capitalise on.[10] However, conflict prevention would require an Indian naval presence in the Indian Ocean, strong enough to deter war. That is why India must invest in a strong Navy.
Maritime Security Threats
Maritime security threats in the Indian Ocean that are of significant concern arise from piracy and illicit trafficking. Curbing these threats is crucial for India, given that its economic growth heavily relies on sea-borne trade. The threat of piracy mainly stems from the waters off Somalia. In addition, Houthi rebels in South Yemen now pose a significant security risk to risk to shipping in the Red Sea. The increasing proximity of piracy to India’s western seaboard amplifies the urgency of addressing this threat.
Drug trafficking remains a lucrative revenue stream for criminal and terrorist organisations. Seaborne smuggling routes are used by an intricate network of transnational actors to destabilise littoral nations, posing a threat to regional stability. India is a prime target.
In response, the Indian Navy has been at the forefront of combating maritime piracy and drug trafficking in the region. It works closely with naval forces and coalition partners in the Gulf of Aden to safeguard these crucial trade routes. India’s former Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral Sunil Lanba, stated that operations targeting these networks are inherently intelligence-driven, requiring close cooperation between maritime forces and agencies such as the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB). He stressed the importance of timely and actionable intelligence in addressing these concerns, especially the need for the Indian Navy to collaborate among multiple stakeholders, like the Coast Guard, Marine Police, and Customs authorities.[11]
An international success story was Operation Crimson Barracuda—a Canadian-led Combined Task Force (CTF) 150 of the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), to counter narcotics smugglers in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman in April 2024. In this operation, units from the Indian Navy, Royal Navy, U.S. Coast Guard, and U.S. Navy seized approximately 4,917 kg of narcotics, including two seizures in one day. INS Talwar, an Indian Navy frigate, seized 453 kilograms of Meth and 487 kilograms of heroin in this operation, marking the first seizure by the Indian Navy since becoming a CMF member in November 2023.[12]
The Indian Navy’s dramatic rescue of a commercial ship from pirates off Somalia’s coast and around 2,600 km from the Indian coast also showcased Indian naval capability in addressing the threats from piracy. On March 16, 2024, INS Kolkatta seized MV Ruen, a former Maltese-flagged bulk carrier, which had been taken over by Somali pirates. In this operation, 17 hostages were rescued, and 35 armed pirates were taken into custody.[13]
Economic and Trade Vulnerabilities
The shipping routes in the Indian Oceans serve most of the world’s container and energy traffic. Three choke points, the Strait of Hormuz, the Malacca Strait, and the Bab-el-Mandeb, through which this traffic passes can severely disrupt global trade. While the Gulf has been in a state of conflict for a long time, it has fortunately not led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab-el-Mandeb. Any disruption in energy supplies can be catastrophic for the region, especially for India, China and Japan, which rely heavily on energy imports from the Gulf. This highlights the need for regional cooperation and diplomacy to obviate such an occurrence.
For the Indian Ocean Region, Institutions like the IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association) and its adjunct – IOR-Arc (Indian Ocean Rim-Association for Regional Cooperation) promote regional cooperation and economic growth. The 23-member IORA grouping includes countries across the Indian Ocean rim—Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania. IORA focuses on trade, investment, and the blue economy (sustainable use of ocean resources). While such institutions are helpful, they lack enforcement power.
The Quad is committed to stability in the Indo-Pacific. It aims to promote regional security and economic cooperation. It supports a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) and seeks to counter China’s growing influence through collaborative efforts between its member countries. It also focuses on maritime security, climate change, and emerging technologies but is not a security organisation. However, as India has carried out naval exercises with all the Quad countries bilaterally and as a grouping, all the ingredients of being able to operate in a security grouping are already in place.
Conclusion
The Indian Ocean is India’s lifeline to becoming a developed country by 2047. Maritime trade holds the key to the country’s ‘Viksit Bharat’ dream. Ensuring the safety and security of sea lines of communication will hence be a priority task for India, necessitating a strong naval capability to protect its maritime interests. India, the US, and the littoral states in the IOR must cooperate to ensure stability in this crucial maritime zone.
Author Brief Bio: Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.
References:
[1] https://www.forbesindia.com/article/explainers/top-10-largest-economies-in-the-world/86159/1
[2] Ibid.
[3] https://www.business-standard.com/budget/news/india-needs-8-growth-for-at-least-10-years-to-be-developed-nation-by-2047-125013101612_1.html
[4] https://maritimeindia.ficci.in/Industry-Overview.html
[5] https://sagarmala.gov.in/sites/default/files/MIV%202030%20Report.pdf
[6] https://theloadstar.com/india-eyes-dedicated-container-line-to-wean-shippers-off-foreign-carriers/
[7] Ibid.
[8] https://www.andrewerickson.com/2015/05/state-council-information-office-issues-chinas-military-strategy-beijings-1st-white-paper-on-military-strategy/
[9] https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/pm-modi-us-visit-donald-trump-quad-partnership-china-indo-pacific-security-125021300150_1.html
[10] https://warontherocks.com/2024/05/its-still-the-indian-ocean-parsing-sino-indian-naval-competition-where-it-counts/
[11] https://www.financialexpress.com/business/defence/securing-the-high-seas-how-the-indian-navy-fights-piracy-and-smuggling-in-the-indian-ocean/3677604/
[12] https://combinedmaritimeforces.com/2024/04/29/ctf-150-concludes-successful-focused-operation-crimson-barracuda/
[13] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/16/indian-navy-captures-ship-from-somali-pirates-rescues-crew-members
