Indo-Japan Business Development Dialogue,2022

Indo-Japan Business Development Dialogue – September 14, 2022

The Indo-Japan Business Development Dialogue, jointly organized by the India Foundation, New Delhi, and the Kajima Institute of International Peace (KIIP), was held virtually on September 14, 2022. It was the third edition of the interaction between the two institutions. The session was attended by eminent scholars and dignitaries from both nations. The theme for the session was “Recruitment of High Skilled Indian Talents by Japanese Technology Companies”. Mr. Naotaka Nishiyama, the President of Tech Japan, was the speaker of this session. In his address, he talked about the business of startups in Japan. In his presentation, he showed the data on global investments in start-ups in Japan and discussed the challenges they face, especially in terms of the usage of funds in development, marketing, recruitment, and overseas expansion. He mentioned the shortage of IT manpower in Japan and yet Japan cannot invite highly skilled Indian talents efficiently.

To engage highly skilled Indian Talents in Japan, Tech Japan is in collaboration with IIT Madras, IIT Bombay, IIT Kharagpur, Kanpur, IIT Roorkee, IIT Hyderabad, IIM Banglore, IIM Ahemdabad, IISC Banglore, and many more. Mr. Naotaka Nishiyama said that the Government of Japan should ease the rules and regulations for the Indian IT professionals to go come to Japan. He believes that in, South East Asia, India is the best in the matters of AI, Data Security, and security issues thus, their focus is on the top-notch Indian IT professionals. The session was summed up by highlighting concerns with respect to the language barrier between India and Japan.

By Chitra Shekhawat, Research Fellow, India Foundation

One Year After the Fall of Kabul: Geopolitical Implications for the Region

A seminar was organised by India Foundation on 02 September 2022 at the Taj Palace Hotel, New Delhi, with the theme, “One Year After the Fall of Kabul: Geopolitical Implications for the Region”. The event was attended by senior serving and retired officers from the Armed Forces and Civil Services, foreign diplomats based in India, politicians, think tanks, scholars and the media. Capt. Alok Bansal, Director, India Foundation, in his opening remarks, stated that Afghanistan has fallen of from the international radar due to the war in Ukraine, but the situation in the country remains volatile and one year after the fall of Kabul and the return of the Taliban, we need to analyse the current situation in relation to past events and also look into the future. This set the tone for the discussions to follow, which were held in two sessions.

Session 1

The first session, chaired by Shri Shyam Saran, former foreign Secretary of India, discussed the external dimensions behind the fall of Kabul. The three panellists for this session were Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, author, independent scholar and Senior Fellow at King’s College London, Mr Sediqullah Sahar, Educational Attache, Embassy of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and Shri Amar Sinha, former Secretary (Economic Relations), Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India.

In her address, Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa postulated that the rise of the Taliban is a matter of concern not only for South Asia but also for the rest of the world. She said that the Taliban is an ideological organisation based on hardcore radicalism, the rise of which is a result of interference and influence by international powers over the years. Consequently, Afghanistan has once again started to become a hub of various extremist elements such as ISIS, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Al-Qaeda etc. Presently, the world is not eager to engage with Afghanistan as in the currently charged geo-political scenarios, attention has shifted to the war in Ukraine and to Chinese intransigence in the South China Sea. Afghanistan is thus a secondary issue for most countries. Even investments such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Afghanistan are just in the realm of ideas for now, as Afghanistan has become a centre of instability. The Afghan Taliban government, despite the fact that it received great support form Pakistan over the past two decades and is still supported by Pakistan, continues to support the TTP on ideological grounds. Those ideological linkages are difficult to break and so Pakistan continues to face a major security challenge from the TTP. This ideological orientation of the Afghan Taliban has also imposed caution on Russia and China, both of whom are reluctant to invest in the region.

The major concern for the world, especially to the neighbouring countries, is the need to contain and confine instability and extremist radical ideology which emanates from Afghanistan. As of now, there is no indication that the Taliban will change its ideological moorings and tone down on its radical leanings. The prospects of a large-scale internal uprising against Taliban are also low. Hence, there is a need to come to terms with the reality that the internal makeup of Afghanistan is unlikely to change. However, there is scope for long-term, slow and steady engagement with Taliban, with the hope that some of the policies being followed by the current regime may mellow in the coming years. What needs focus and attention is preventing Afghanistan from once again becoming the hub of extremism and containing the spread of its ideology, for the security and stability of the region and beyond.

Mr Sediqullah Sahar gave a general idea of the current internal situation as a result of the fall of Kabul. He said that Indian aid to Afghanistan, through these tough times is valued deeply by the people. Despite the current circumstances, the deep connection between India and Afghanistan remains. On the internal situation in Afghanistan, he said that the situation is grim, with massive human rights violations in the country, reversing 20 years of gains made from socialist reforms and education. Development is at an all time low as the economy has been contracting. Severe drought has only made the situation far worse as is evident from the levels of food insecurity in the country. Inequality is growing and the majority of the population is suffering. Education has been put on the back burner and educational access for women seems like a far-fetched dream. He listed four main expectations we need to have of Taliban, in order to see any progress with respect to the present situation:

  • Establishing measures to identify and track terror activity.
  • Strengthening the rule of the Afghan people.
  • Maintaining rule of law.
  • Establishing mechanisms to address and counter all issues related to terrorism.

Shri Amar Sinha gave a detailed and holistic account of the circumstances that led to the fall of Kabul. He said that, while the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan was the immediate catalyst for the fall of Kabul, it was not the only cause. For a long time, the US totally excluded Taliban from all discussions related to Afghanistan and also curbed all domestic impulses to reconciliation. China and Russia also actively engaged with the Taliban which delegitimised the Afghan government. Russia, in fact, started reaching out to the Taliban from 2014 onwards. The key factor to note however, is that Pakistan had been planning this Taliban takeover since long, inspired of course by pre-1947 British policies towards Afghanistan. The Afghanistan governments, prior to the Taliban takeover, also played a role in the rise of the Taliban and there were deep fissures within the government itself. While the 2014 elections were chaotic at best, the 2019 election was a complete disaster, with one million votes disputed during the election. It is important to understand that you cannot import leadership. Expats can’t run countries. These things need to be fostered internally.

Session 1: Q&A

In the Q&A for the first session, the Chair, Shri Shyam Saran, made the opening comments. He said that the peace deal that was negotiated by America with the Taliban, completely excluded the Afghan government. This exclusion basically served Afghanistan to the Taliban on a platter.

Various issues cropped up in the interactive session, to include the nefarious role played by Pakistan in the fall of Kabul. The panelists were of the view that due to the long-term investment Pakistan has made, it is unlikely to give up on the Taliban. It still desires strategic depth within Afghanistan, but the manner in which the Taliban is operating, it appears that is has got strategic depth within Pakistan!

With respect to the US and other Western powers, once Osama Bin Laden was killed by the Americans, their interest in Afghanistan diminished. Western powers eventually became tired of paying for and dealing with Afghanistan, and thus they sought internal actors to take over the country. Pakistan pushed for the Taliban being that force. However, Pakistan itself faces many challenges, such as that of dealing with the TTP, which has ties with the Taliban itself. Despite the fact that the Afghan Taliban supports the TTP, Pakistan will continue to support the Taliban government in Afghanistan.

An issue for discussion that cropped up was opening the Indian Embassy in Afghanistan and the risks involved. On this point, two views emerged. On view was that the Taliban presently has weak control over the security situation within the country. It would hence be unable to ensure the security of the Indian Embassy. The number of attacks on mosques and on clerics that support the Taliban are also on the rise. There has also been an attack on a Gurudwara in Afghanistan which was perceived as a message to India by many. As security in Kabul is in the hands of the Haqanis, who have Indian blood on their hands, there is little to suggest that the Indian mission will be safe. The alternate view was that since the rise of Taliban in Kabul has not led to any major violence against India or Indians in Afghanistan, other than the unfortunate killing of an Indian journalist, the decision to partially open the Embassy may have been a calculated and well considered one. The former view held resonance amongst the audience. To consider the Taliban as becoming benign was at the best naive. Recent happenings in Afghanistan show no reason to believe that the Taliban will change its ideological moorings or be in a position to maintain law and order in the country. However, India does have interests in the region in relation to certain investments made and trade routes via the region. This is also an opportunity for India to neutralise threats from Pakistan. For the moment, there is no alternative to Taliban and we need to focus on dealing with them strategically and reinforce policies that are beneficial to us. Approaching the Taliban as a friendly force would be naive. However, we don’t only engage with friends. The entire session was summarised by Shri Shyam Saran who said that Taliban 2.0 is not a different entity; it is the same as Taliban 1.0 and any engagement by the international community with Taliban from here on must be approached with caution.

Session 2

Session 2 was chaired by Dr. C Raja Mohan, Senior Fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute, New Delhi. It focused on the geopolitical implications surrounding the fall of Kabul in context of the previously discussed external dimensions. The speakers for this session were Capt Alok Bansal, Director India Foundation, Mrs. Bilquees Daud, Assistant Professor, Jindal School of International Affairs and Shri Shamsher M. Chaudhary, former Foreign Secretary, Bangladesh Government.

Capt. Alok Bansal stated that there is no good Taliban and bad Taliban. The statements put forward by the Taliban were made as token statements to please the international community at a time when they knew that they were weak. However, as they consolidated control, they are now showing their true colours. Ideologically, Taliban is in fact back to square one and thus, before anything else, we must understand the Islamic Ideology. Only when we understand the meaning of Amir al-Mu’minin, supreme leader of the Islamic world, will we realise that when the Taliban recognises Hibatullah Akhundzada as Amir al-Mu’minin and not Amir al-Afghanistan, they are aiming for a pan-Islamic emirate and are in competition with other forces with the same ideology, to gain more foot soldiers. Once this fact is understood, it becomes clear that it’s not feasible for the Taliban to hand over any committed Islamic militant to Pakistan or China or any one else. Taliban has achieved the pre-requisite for Jihad i.e., control of  territory. Moreover, for the first time, we see that the Central Asian states are not on one page and Russia is not the only influential power as now another Ottoman Empire is also rising as a new player in Central and West Asia. You can see this in the actions of these nations; Qatar defying Saudi Arabia, UAE pursuing its own independent foreign policy and other fissures appearing among nations that once acted in unison. As radicalisation increases and pre 2001 activities resume in Afghanistan, the world needs to be prepared.

Mrs. Bilquees Daud was of the view that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, was the most significant strategic defeat of the US. However, this rise, fall and rise of Taliban was also influenced by regional powers. Right now, the power struggle with these powers seems to be along the lines of Russia and China vs Pakistan and Taliban. The Taliban today is facing an economic and political crisis as the Afghan economy contracts and the people suffer. The composition of Taliban itself is lopsided in favour of a certain sect of Pashtuns. This turmoil, mixed with the Taliban’s access to the US equipment left behind, spells disaster. This equipment has already made its way to Kashmir. With the knowledge that Taliban is unlikely to cut ties with other terrorist groups, we must start working on countering the ideology behind Taliban. Already, both Iran and Pakistan have received roughly 300,000 refugees each from Afghanistan. The future of Afghanistan and the region looks quite grim at present.

Shri Shamsher M Chaudhary said that Taliban is just old wine in an old bottle that may have been shined up a bit. With the Taliban now in control, however, they are in no mood to give themselves a new look for the international community. By opening missions in Afghanistan right now, we are to some degree, accepting that the Taliban is in control. Though the UN has not recognised the Taliban, we must engage cautiously so as to not legitimise the Taliban, but recognise the role of each regional player involved.

Session 2: Q&A

The following issues emerged:

  • Greater radicalisation leads to lower tolerance levels. To maintain its hold over the cadre, the Taliban will resort to greater levels of radicalisation, which will prompt other groups like the ISIS to do the same. This will create more fissures and divisions will appear among competing claimants to rule Afghanistan. As it is, Islam is not a monolith and has various sects with competing ideologies.
  • Ideology of radical extremist Islam is a major threat and must be countered from within Islamic society by use of moderate Islam. This requires an understanding of the drivers behind radical Islam.
  • Other than the severe violation of women’s rights, where girls are denied a school education is the equally problematic case of the type of syllabus being taught to those who do attend school. Education will decide the level of indoctrination of the next generation.
  • To ensure economic stability and security for women in Afghanistan, humanitarian aid and use of NGO’s is the only way forward.
  • Economic pressure is viable to influence the Taliban but only if alternate sources don’t become accessible to them.
  • Taliban is desperate at the moment as they can’t rely on Pakistan for assistance and want some kind of international recognition. Even foot soldiers of Taliban are facing food shortage.
  • India can play a role in rallying regional power to support and consolidate opposition as Taliban’s acceptability starts to diminish within.
  • While there are internal divisions in the Taliban, Amir al-Mu’minin is recognised by all the sects.
  • The Chinese influence is slightly exaggerated. China has always had trouble dealing with religious ideologies, only displaying knee jerk reactions.
  • Even Pakistan is attempting to find a second option or plan B to Taliban

The session was summed up by Dr. C. Raja Mohan who stated that internal unrest within Afghanistan and Taliban will be exploited by external powers. As far as India is concerned, we can but play the role of a secondary power, as we do not have direct land connectivity with Afghanistan. Consequently, India is also less threatened by the events as they unfold in Afghanistan. While India, will not be shaping the outcome for Afghanistan it will have to deal with outcomes that will arise. Pakistan, on the other hand is the opposite. It has a heavy influence on Taliban but as a result is under greater threat by the Taliban. India and the International community must observe the situation and act slowly, strategically and patiently.

-By Anmol Mahajan, Research Fellow, India Foundation

The Population Time Bomb: Impact on National Integration

Introduction

Population dynamics have an impact on a country’s economic and strategic capabilities. Sparsely populated countries may face strategic challenges, but large populations are not necessarily a blessing. An unbridled population growth can greatly hinder the development process, besides adversely impacting on the environment.

An article published in 2011,[i] on the implications and trends of India’s demographic outlook, came out with estimates of what India’s demography will look like in 2030. The article stated that as per UNDP projections, India’s population will exceed China’s by 2025, and that the crossover will in all probability occur well before that time, making India the most populous country in the world. This article was extremely prescient in its predictions, as India is set to overtake China’s population sometime in 2023, but more ominously, the article has predicted that India’s population by 2030 will be in the region of 1.5 billion people. Is this sustainable and can India afford to go down that path? What are the fissiparous tendencies that such a growth can have on Indian society? These questions need to be asked and more importantly, need to be addressed with urgency.

Population Growth over the last five decades: World Comparison

How has the world’s population increased over the last five decades? Statistics from 1970 onwards indicate that the Western world has successfully kept a lid on population growth. China too has been remarkably successful in controlling its population. However, most Asian and African countries have seen unprecedented population growth, which has hindered economic growth, created vast disparities between different economic groups, created water stress and food scarcity and led to fissures in society. All of these factors combined together have led to dismal standards of living for vast multitudes of people across the globe. The percentage increase in population over the last half-century for 10 countries is given in Figure 1.[ii]

The decadal growth rate of population also makes an interesting study (Figures 2 and 3).[iii] Both the US and France, over the last half-century, have had a decadal growth of population below 10 percent for the period 1970-2020. This is true for most of the Western world. Low population growth has been a contributory factor to their ability to provide a high standard of living to their people and being classified as first-world countries. China, which imposed a one-child policy on its populace in September 1980 saw only a marginal decline in population growth for the first decade after the policy was introduced. The decade 1970-1980, prior to the introduction of the policy saw a decadal increase in the population of 20.8 percent. In the first decade after the implementation of the one-child policy (1980-1990), there was but a marginal decline, with decadal population growth at 17.7 percent. This indicates that the one-child policy was widely flouted by most residents. The next two decades saw decadal population growth dropping to below 10 percent, and for the decade 2010-2020, the population growth was just 5 percent. This is comparable to the population growth in France, which saw a decadal population growth hovering between 4 to 6 percent for the five decades 1970-2020. The US has also maintained for the most part, decadal population growth under 10 percent for the last five decades.

In the Asian subcontinent, the situation has unfortunately spiralled out of control. In Pakistan, the decadal population growth has been in excess of 30 percent for each of the three decades 1970-2000. A marginal decrease has taken place post-2000, with decadal population growth reducing to 26 percent and 23 percent for the decades 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 respectively. In real terms, the population of Pakistan has increased 3.8 times in the last half-century (1970-2020) and about seven times since the country achieved independence in 1947. This is clearly unsustainable. Bangladesh also has high decadal population growth, though their performance is far better than Pakistan. For the period 1970-1980, decadal population growth was 24 percent. This rose to 29.5 percent in the decade 1980-1990, which indicates that in the earlier decade following the Liberation War, large-scale migration of population had taken place from Bangladesh to India. Thereafter, decadal population growth witnessed a slight decline with population growth at 24 percent. Since then, population control measures appear to have been more successful, with decadal population growth at   15.6 percent and 11.5 percent for the period 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 respectively.

The statistics for India too are not very flattering and resemble to some extent the statistics of Bangladesh. The three decades 1970-2000 saw the decadal population growth hover between 26 percent and 21 percent. This is high and reflects a failure of the nation’s family planning programme. The decadal population growth dropped below 20 percent for the next two decades, touching 16.8 percent in 2000-2010 and falling further to 11.8 percent for the decade 2010-2020. This is still high though it now appears that India is closer to getting to grips with the problem. What remains of serious concern, however, is the wide variation in population growth between different parts of the country as also between different communities, which potentially can cause severe fissures in Indian society.

India and China: A Statistical Analysis

At times, when development or rather the lack of it is linked to excessive population growth, the nay-sayers promptly state that poor economic development is not due to unbridled population growth but due to socio-economic factors. Then they justify their assumption by giving a reference to China, quoting its spectacular economic growth despite it being the most populous country in the world. This is simply intellectually dishonest. Undoubtedly, poor socio-economic policies hinder economic growth, but unbridled population growth negates even the most pragmatic of economic policies and will invariably result in weakening poverty alleviation programmes. China’s spectacular rise is a result of strict measures to restrict family size; had such measures not been taken, the picture in China would have been rather gloomy.

A comparison of population data between India and China—the world’s two most populous countries is indeed instructive. Figure 4[iv] shows the population of India and China from 1950 till 2020. China’s population, which stood at 55.44 crore in 1950 had almost doubled over the course of the next three decades to 100 crore by 1980. This was when China began its family planning programme, with its one-child policy. In 2020, 40 years later, China’s population stood at 143.93 crore, an increase of just under 44 percent. In comparison, for the period 1950-1980, China’s population had increased a whopping 80 percent. Had China continued with such a high rate of population growth, it would have crossed the two billion level mark by now (figure 5). What would be the impact on China if it had another 600 million mouths to feed and look after, can only be speculated, but undoubtedly, China would have still been a third-world country. As of now, while China’s decadal population growth has reduced to single digits, it is still higher than most European countries.

Now let us take a look at India. India’s population stood at 37.63 crore in 1950. In terms of comparison, this is less than the present-day combined population of Pakistan and Bangladesh. By 1980, India’s population had surged to 69.89 crore, indicating a growth of 85 percent. At this stage, India’s and China’s rate of population growth were almost similar. Over the next 40 years, the situation changed dramatically. In 2020, India’s population stood at 138 crore, an increase of a staggering 97 percent! Had India been successful in controlling its population as China had done, its present population would have been just over one billion (Figure 5). With 400 million less people, unemployment in India would have been minimal, the cities would not be bursting, pollution levels would have been under control and in all likelihood, India would have been a middle-income country.

Population Dynamics: Internal Fissures

The population growth of India is an area of concern, but more ominous is the fact that this population growth is uneven and could potentially create serious fissures in society on two counts. The first is related to a Constitutional provision. Article 81 of the Indian Constitution lays down the distribution of seats to each state based on their population, while Article 82 provides for the readjustment of seats in the Lower House, after each census. This delimitation was suspended in 1976 till the 2001 census, primarily because the Southern states had achieved a higher degree of population control than the states in the North. This was again postponed to 2026 by the 84th Amendment. In the revised allocation, the Northern states would have got a larger share than the South,[v] which effectively meant rewarding those states that were less effective in promoting small family norms.

Let us take the example of five northern states and five southern states to put the above issue in perspective. Based on population data, the Northern parts of the country have shown a higher rate of decadal population growth as compared to the Southern states which have achieved a certain measure of population stability. A readjustment of seats, carried out on the basis of Article 82 of the Constitution of India, could lead to a very serious North-South divide in the country, as the states which have a higher rate of population growth would stand to benefit in terms of seat share (Figure 6).[vi]

For the period 1970-2020, the population of five northern states viz. Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand and Rajasthan showed an increase in the population of 178 percent. These states have a combined representation of 164 seats in Parliament as of 2019. Based on the above, in terms of the Constitution, these five states will get seats in proportion to their population increase. Their seat share thus increases by 178 percent to a total of 455 seats.

In the five southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, the states have a combined representation of 129 seats in Parliament as of 2019. The combined population of these five states increased by 102 percent over the period 1970-2020. Based on the population increase of 102 percent, their share of seats in the Lok Sabha would increase by 102 percent to give them a revised seat share of 260 seats. Based on percentage increase of population, the Southern states hence stand to lose significantly in representation in the Lower House while the Northern states, which faulted on population control measures, stand to gain.

Increasing seat share based on the proportional increase in population will hence disempower the South in comparison to the North, simply because they have carried out the required population control measures in a more effective manner than states in the Northern half of the country. This will create grounds for unrest with severe consequences. The solution hence would be to further defer the expansion, or to simply increase the number of seats in parliament in the same proportion as are currently existing. It must also be noted that even amongst the Southern states, population increase is not uniform as states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu have fared far better than Karnataka.


Religious fault lines too are beginning to appear because of uneven growth of different religious groups. Data available till the 2011 census indicates decadal population growth of all religious groups has declined but the rate of decline is different for different religious denominations (Figure 7).[vii] For each of the decades from 1951-2011, the decadal growth of the Muslim population has been about 10 percentage points higher than non-Muslims. In 2011, while the decadal growth rate of non-Muslims is veering towards the 10 percent decadal growth mark, the decadal growth of the Muslim population remains above the 20 percent decadal growth mark. In states like West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, UP and Assam, this is manifesting in societal tension which has the potential to lead to communal discord and splitting of communities on communal lines. Here too, as in the North-South divide, those religious groups which have been more effective in population control measures stand to lose out to those that have disregarded the same. Obviously, there is a need to implement strict family planning norms through a series of incentives and disincentives. The aim must be to get all groups to limit decadal population growth to between 0 and 5 percent.

To conclude, India as of now is on a cusp, where the country can break out as a middle-income country by 2047. This process will be greatly facilitated by the implementation of population control measures, uniformly across all strata of society and across the length and breadth of the country. This needs to be a priority call for India’s polity and civil society, to preserve the unity and integrity of the nation, prevent fissiparous tendencies and for the economic welfare of all sections of India’s population.

Author Brief Bio: Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.

References:

[i] India’s Demographic Outlook: Implications and Trends: An Interview with Nicholas Eberstadt, available at https://www.nbr.org/publication/indias-demographic-outlook-implications-and-trends/

[ii] Data sourced from macrotrends.net for respective countries

[iii] Data sourced from World Bank Group

[iv] Data Sourced from the World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=CN and https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=IN

[v] https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/article-81-constitution-explained-why-lok-sabha-is-still-543-6067542/

[vi] Data sourced from the Census of India

[vii] Data sourced from the Pew Research Centre.

An Agenda for Living Together

India is a land of extreme diversity – in language, social order, cuisine, customs and religion. Over millennia, it mastered the art of managing that diversity and maintaining unity.

Samaano Mantrah Samitih Samaani

Samaanam Manas Saha-Chittamesham”

–  This Rig Vedic mantra laid down conditions for living together for the diverse Indian society. It meant that “May our prayers be one; our brotherhood be one; our hearts be one”. Here the sages paused. They didn’t insist that “our minds also be one”. Acknowledging “freedom of thought”, they said – “May thinking minds be together”.

Traditionally, ‘diversity of thought and unity of heart’ has been the essence of Hindu civilisational philosophy. This catholicity allowed philosophical schools like Tarka and Mimansa – dialectics, reasoning, reflection and investigation – to flourish. Tolerance and acceptance became India’s main attributes.

Across the planet, the Semites in Europe thought differently. There was only “one truth” revealed by prophets, they insisted and called upon the followers to become “believers”. Those who questioned became infidels and kafirs. Intolerance became the hallmark of the Semitic faiths.

The issue of ‘living together’ acquired complexity in India when these two world-views – one, exploratory and inclusive and the other, determinist and exclusive; one, that advocated “seeking” and the other, that insisted on “belief” – came face-to-face with each other.

Christianity and Islam, the two Semitic faiths, entered India and succeeded in converting a large number of Indians. The tolerant Indian milieu did not find it objectionable until change of faith led to change of life for the converted. A new conflict was born when the neo-Semites started rejecting hoary principles of Indian ethos like “Sarv Panth Samaadar” (equal respect to all religions), “Ekam Sat Viprah Bahudha Vadanti” (truth is one, wise men interpret it differently).

Islam’s case is more intriguing. It came to India with the Islamic invader Mohammed bin Qasim in 712 CE. The next eight centuries saw waves of Arab, Turkish and Central Asian Muslim invaders attacking India. Although invasions across the Hindu Kush were not new, Islamic invasions differed from the earlier ones like Greeks, Huns, Sakas and Kushans. They brought medieval exclusivist, intolerant and iconoclastic Islam with them.

Will Durant, the American historian called those conquests “probably the bloodiest story in history”. They resulted in acute mistrust, disunity and animosity between Hindus and Muslims.

Al-Biruni, the Iranian scholar, who came to India with the invading armies of Mahmood Ghaznavi in the early 11th century, pompously claimed that Islamic institutions were “much superior” and all the customs and usages of local communities were known for their “essential foulness”. He dismissed Hindus for “their ludicrous views” and called them “by nature niggardly…”. He also admitted that Ghazni’s iconoclasm had led to Hindus “cherish the most inveterate aversion toward all Muslims.”

Nearly three centuries later, Ibn Batuta, an explorer and traveller in the Islamic lands, observed that Hindus and Muslims lived in entirely separate communities. “It is the custom among the heathen of the Malabar country that no Muslim should enter their houses or use their vessels for eating purposes. If a Muslim is fed out of their vessels, they either break the vessels or give them away to the Muslims,” Batuta wrote.

“Allah and Mohammad could not be accommodated in the Hindu pantheon” quips eminent historiographer B.R. Nanda.

But there were phases of bonhomie too. Emperor Jehangir’s mother was a Hindu. Jehangir’s Hindu wife gave birth to his successor, Shah Jahan. Aurangzeb had a Hindu wife too. The last Mughal ruler, Bahadur Shah Zafar’s mother Lal Bai was a Hindu. Mughal royals like Akbar and Dara Shikoh demonstrated syncretism occasionally. Akbar had set up an establishment at Fatehpur Sikri for translating Indian scriptures. He got Mahabharata translated into Persian and called it Razmnama (Book of Wars). Dara Shikoh, Aurangzeb’s brother, had the Bhagavad Gita translated into Persian. He composed a study of commonalities in Hinduism and Islam and called it ‘The Mingling of Two Oceans’.

Aurangzeb, though, did not demonstrate any façade of syncretism. His rule was one of the bloodiest chapters in Hindu-Muslim relations. British Orientalist, Stanley Lane-Poole, wrote, “For the first time in their history, the Mughals beheld a rigid Muslim in their emperor – a Muslim as sternly repressible of himself as of his people around him; a king who was prepared to stake his throne for the sake of his faith. He must have been fully conscious of the dangerous path he was pursuing, and well aware against every Hindu sentiment. Yet he chose this course and adhered to this with unbending resolve.”

However, as the Mughal rule declined, rural Muslims started returning to their old Hindu practices. Poor Muslims, especially in provinces like Bengal, were as caste-ridden as their Hindu counterparts. They also used to worship Goddess Kali and participate in Durga Puja. The British Census Report of 1901 noted that the poor and uneducated Muslims used to consult astrologers, look for auspicious days to start work, and prayed to Hindu deities for all sorts of personal problems. Muslim communities in the princely states of Rajasthan like the Meos, who were converted by sword’s edge during Rajput-Mughal wars, used to even celebrate Hindu festivals like Diwali, Dussehra and Janmashtami.

In North India, a new and syncretic Islam, Sufism, also started taking roots. This tradition accommodated many Hindu practices like tolerance, saint and Dargah worship.

The last Mughal Emperor Bahadur Shah Zafar believed that Hinduism and Islam “share the same essence” and tried to restore Hindu-Muslim concord. He filled his court and army with a large number of Hindus. In his path-breaking work on the Mutiny of 1857, called “The First War of Independence”, V.D. Savarkar wrote in exuberant terms about Zafar’s enthroning in 1837. “So, in the truer sense, we said that the raising of Bahadur Shah to the throne of India was… the declaration that the long-standing war between the Hindu and the Mohammedan had ended, that tyranny had ceased, and that the people of the soil were once more free to choose their own monarch… Let, then, Hindus and Mohammedans send forth their hearty, conscientious, and most loyal homage to this elected or freely accepted Emperor of their native soil on the 11th of May 1857!”

This new-found bonhomie was in ample evidence at the First War of Independence in 1857. The war of 1857 shook the British confidence. They realised that a potential opposition to their rule was building up in the unity of various sections of the Indian society. George William Forrest, a British educator and author of “A History of the Indian Mutiny”, warned the British that the message of the 1857 revolt was that Hindus, Muslims, Brahmins and Shudras could all come together unitedly against the Raj.

Viceroy Canning got a wily idea. “As we must rule over 150 million of people by a handful of Englishmen, let us do it in the manner best calculated to leave them divided and to inspire them with the greatest possible awe of our power and with the least suspicion of our motives”, he advised his superiors in London. Thus was born the British strategy of ‘Divide et Impera’ – Divide and Rule.

Meanwhile, a new revivalist movement, known as Wahhabism, took birth in mid-18th century in Arab lands. Started by a Sunni cleric and theologian, Muhammad Ibn Abd al-Wahhab, this puritanical and exclusivist movement became a dominant stream in the Islamic world. Heft was added to it when the new ruler of Arabia, Mohammad bin Saud accorded the status of official religion to it in 1744. Petrodollars added further impetus in the 20th century. From Palestine to Pakistan, this hard-line Wahhabism is leading to the rise of radicalism and fundamentalism among Muslims today.

Wahhabism came to influence Indian Islam also. Al-Wahhab’s contemporary was a Delhi-based Islamic theologian called Shah Waliullah. He saw a big threat to Islam in the growing influence of Hindu customs and beliefs among the Muslims and decided to “purify” Indian Islam. He went to the extent of welcoming the invasion of India by the ruler of Afghanistan, Ahmed Shah Abdali.

Then came the Ahl-e-Hadith movement, started in Bhopal. This puritanical movement was also an attempt at negating the growing Hindu-Muslim proximity. These revisionist and exclusivist movements had finally succeeded in their mission when the Hindus and Muslims, who had fought together in 1857, ended up fighting against each other nine decades later in 1947.

Sir Syed Ahmed Khan, the founder of Aligarh Muslim University, was a classic example of the success of Wahhabi ideology in India.

Sir Syed started off as a strong protagonist of Hindu-Muslim unity. Addressing a large gathering in Gurdaspur in 1884, he exhorted: “O Hindus and Muslims! Do you belong to a country other than India? Don’t you live on the soil and are you not buried under it or cremated on its ghats? If you live and die on this land, then bear in mind that ‘Hindu’ and ‘Muslim’ is but religious word: all the Hindus, Muslims and Christians who live in this country are one nation”.

But in a few years’ time, the Wahhabists and the British had succeeded in transforming Syed into a rank fundamentalist. “Oh, my brother Muslims! For seven hundred years in India, you had imperial sway. You know what it is to rule. The Bengalis had never at any period held sway over an inch of the Indian soil,” Syed exhorted a few years later. “We do not want to become the subjects of the Hindus instead of the people of the Book (Christians),” he proclaimed.

Syed Ahmed was one of the earliest Muslim leaders to propagate that Muslims were a separate entity. Hector Bolitho, author of “Jinnah – Creator of Pakistan”, described Syed as the first “bold Indian Muslim” to talk about partition.

The next to champion this “Two-Nation Theory” was Mohammad Ali Jinnah. Interestingly, Jinnah too started his political career as a champion of Hindu-Muslim unity. Gopal Krishna Gokhale described Jinnah in 1910 as the “Ambassador of Hindu-Muslim unity”. Jinnah was opposed to partition of Bengal in 1906 and worked for Hindu-Muslim unity until 1916. He told his Muslim citizens that the propaganda about Hindu domination was just “a bogey, put before you by your enemies to frighten you”. But he turned into the champion of Muslim politics by 1936. In just two decades, from “Hindu-Muslim unity”, Jinnah flipped to “Hindus and Muslims cannot live together”. From a leader decrying separate electorates in 1908, he transformed into a leader championing a separate nation for Muslims three decades later.

The Two-Nation Theory of Jinnah was a fragile and lacklustre one. Intellectually it was hollow and far removed from objective reality. Jinnah’s argument that India’s Muslims had a common identity was a facile one. Muslims lived all across India. They talked different languages and followed different customs, often local and identical to Hindus. That’s why Gandhi repeatedly told Jinnah and Muslims that there couldn’t be any other homeland for them except India.

The fallacy of Two-Nation Theory was established on the day India was partitioned. Just about half of the Muslim population went over to Pakistan, while the rest remained in India, either out of compulsion – they couldn’t afford a migration, or out of choice – they didn’t support partition. In just two decades time, the much-touted Two-Nation Theory returned to haunt Pakistan when the Bengali-speaking Muslims wanted their own homeland and secured Bangladesh in 1971.

In Pakistan’s Constituent Assembly in August 1947, Jinnah tried to please his Western masters by promising to build a secular country where the minorities would enjoy equal rights as the majority. But Pakistan became a quintessential theocracy. Jinnah knew well that there was nothing else that could keep the country together except Islam. To that was added ‘hate India’. The country that Jinnah created out of the Two-Nation Theory can only survive by promoting theocracy and hating India.

Division of India was not just about lands, but hearts too. Although Hindus and Muslims continued to live together in India after partition, their hearts never met. The Hindu suspicion got fortified over decades due to Muslim intransigence on one hand and appeasement politics on the other. Kashmir to communal riots have fuelled this suspicion further.

Coming together requires that this suspicion ends. It calls for attitudinal change. Unfortunately, large sections of Indian Islam continue to be influenced by Wahhabism. Indian Muslims must reject this exclusivist and hardline version for a more inclusive, liberal and humanitarian Islam championed by institutions like Nathdlatul Ulema (NU) in Indonesia. The NU rejects the Saudi-sponsored Wahhabism. It declared that there were “no kafirs”. It called for respect to all religions and dismissed the Islamist propaganda about “Islamophobia” as a figment of imagination, if not the result of their own actions. It theologically held patriotism above Ummah.

For greater national cohesion, Muslims in India should turn to the NU’s approach. They should give up medieval concepts like blasphemy. Murders and murder threats in the name of blasphemy have seriously dented Hindu goodwill for Muslims. Many Hindus today believe that Muslims will not change.

On their part, Hindus too need to understand that perpetual hatred for Muslims cannot be the way forward. They cannot be angry at a stand-up comedian for insulting Hindu gods, and also demand the right to insult the prophet. Theologies can be contested, but narratives about gods and prophets need to be viewed from a culture-specific lens. Every religion has narratives that others may find illogical.

As Guruji Golwalkar in 1948 and Mohan Bhagwat in 2018 reiterated, Hindu Rashtra doesn’t exclude Muslims. Misplaced argument that Hindus cannot live with Muslims makes Jinnah happy in his grave while Gandhi and Golwalkar will squirm in theirs. There is a global demand that Islam should change. Hindus should demonstrate courage to help Muslims reform. They should handhold those Muslims who are fighting for that.

Continuous reform and upgradation are the unique virtue of Hindus. For Christianity, it took nearly 1,500 years, until Martin Luther came forward to challenge the orthodoxy, to reform. Islam is passing through its 15th century. Will a Muslim version of Luther surface?

It is an important question for India. Hindus are united and strong today. A serious dilemma haunts them. If the Muslim leadership fails to rise-up to the occasion, can this unity expand to encompass them? Or forced to fight back radical Islamist elements, will it end up creating a Semitic version of Hinduism – intolerant, xenophobic and aggressive?

Author Brief Bio: Shri Ram Madhav is an Indian politician, author and thinker. Besides discharging his responsibilities as a political leader, Mr Madhav is a Founding Member of the Governing Council of India Foundation (IF). In over a decade of India Foundation’s existence, Mr. Madhav has been the curator of major global and national multilateral initiatives like Indian Ocean Conference and Counterterrorism Conference involving heads of nations and leaders of governments besides academics, scholars and public-spirited individuals. A renowned author and thinker, Mr Madhav has over 200 publications to his credit. His most recent works include “The Hindutva Paradigm – Integral Humanism and the Quest for a Non-Western Worldview”; “Because India Comes First: Reflections on Nationalism, Identity and Culture” and “Uneasy Neighbours: India and China after 50 years of the war”.

Religious Harmony: A Unifying Bond

Introduction

Harmony – In the context of music, it means “a pleasant musical sound made by different notes being played or sung simultaneously.” In a social context, it usually refers to “a situation in which people are peaceful and agree with each other, or when things seem right or suitable together.” However, an artist regards harmony as a combination of separate but interconnected parts in a way that employs their similarities to bring unity to a painting or any other object of art.

All the above definitions need to be recalled when discussing inter-religious harmony to see the underlying commonalities that bind various religions, primarily the spiritual seeker. In Indian religious traditions, harmony involves experiencing (anubhava) the Divinity that exists in every human being.

Bharat and Religious Traditions

Bharat has been a land of spiritual harmony since ancient times. Religious freedom, acceptance, and harmony are the very substratum of Bharatiya ethos. “Let noble thoughts come to me from all directions,” expresses the Vedas, and this indeed is an inherent nature of Bharatiyas. Sanatana Dharma teaches us to be reverential to life and nature around us.

Bharat has seen its share of a diversity of religions. Sanatana Dharma has allowed various schools/religions to spring from its essence and has accepted and accommodated many faiths. In the well-treaded path, significant turns were taken by many learned masters. New philosophies and practices were propounded by the leaders of these new religions. What reasons compelled them to develop and propagate a new belief system? In India, the reason was neither vanity nor self-seeking behaviour on the part of those who founded these religions, nor was it for practical conveniences. It stemmed from insightful investigations. For example, Nanak Dev, the first guru of the Sikh denomination, equipped his followers with an amalgam of social welfare and spiritual upliftment. In his time, this proved to be an effective method of bringing together many people who adhered to the path of devotion.

The religious and spiritual traditions of Bharat run more profound than mere faith. As noted by many commentators, Bharat’s religious, cultural, and spiritual practices are knowledge-based. Any interfaith dialogue needs to recognise this as it helps to outline, understand and communicate commonalities and differences. People who follow faith-based religions usually define the goal of human life as salvation through faith.

The oldest text of the world, the Rig Veda, proclaims, “The Truth is One, the wise express it in a variety of ways.” Sanatana Dharma recognises this maxim and constantly reiterates it through its literature to its society and people. The people of a country can remain united through the worst of times if there is a robust spiritual and cultural foundation.

Spiritual Oneness: The Vision that can lead to Harmony

Spiritual Oneness of the whole universe is India’s view on life, and Rishis of yore constantly strove to help people understand this idea. The Oneness expands from the individual to family, to society, to the nation, to existence, and to Ishvara. In light of this vision, all that is under our purview and that which lies beyond is Ishvara. This framework is ecologically sound and scientific in nature. We have borne the brunt of its after-effects whenever we have exploited nature.

Agriculture was adversely affected due to the indiscriminate use of pesticides that led to the death of earthworms, and it required a significant movement to impress upon farmers the need for vermicomposting. Research has suggested that wiping out the bee population will lead to humans’ extinction in about four years. Animals, birds, trees, plants, and all other beings are one with us, and nature is but an extension of humans. This is the basis of Sanatana Dharma. Most Indian religious traditions subscribe to this thought.

Those religions—or even some ideologies—that consider humans separate from nature and live with the assumption that nature is merely for the enjoyment of humans must mend their ways. Else, nature will continue to be exploited.

We face many life challenges, so we each need a solid support structure. Family, clans, community, religion, and society serve as this unwavering footing to successfully build our lives. But they are effective only if we can feel the connection with each one of these collectives – that feeling of Oneness. We are interconnected, interrelated, and interdependent. To emphasise this, Swami Vivekananda aptly declared, “One atom in this universe cannot move without dragging the whole world along with it.”

It is essential to record that Vedanta believes there are many paths to the one Truth. Each person on this planet has a unique mind and a distinct way thereof to reach the destination—the Truth. Depending on our individual nature, we need to approach this game of life. The Shiva Mahimna stotra voices: “As different streams having their sources in different places all mingle their water in the sea, O Lord, the different paths which people take through different tendencies, various though they appear, crooked or straight, all lead to Thee.”

Culture – the Injection to Infuse Doses of Oneness  

The grand vision of Oneness which emphasises that nothing and no one is separate from us, needs to be imparted not through lectures or posts but rather through shared practices. India has been a land where many such shared practices constantly highlight the unity underlying all diversity. Namaste (namaskar) is how we greet people in this land of Bharat. This seemingly simple greeting has a deeper meaning. We internally recognise the Divinity in another and offer our prostrations to the divine within whom we meet. Worshipping animals, rivers, trees, inanimate objects, and so on are all age-old cultural practices of the land. Pooja/Upasana, festivals, and rituals are all forms of experiencing this vision of life. The Sanskrit word for festival is “utsava,” meaning “that which elevates.” Every festival is a means of elevating us.

If Truth is One, why is there turmoil in the name of religion? This perhaps is because those religions that come together in brotherhood allow into their exclusive groups only those that belong to their particular sect. Consequently, fissures and turmoil within the society is created. Religious conversion too is a significant problem to religious harmony. Swami Vivekananda, in the final session of the Parliament of the World’s Religions said on 27 September 1893: “The Christian is not to become a Hindu or a Buddhist, nor a Hindu or a Buddhist to become a Christian. But each must assimilate the spirit of the others and yet preserve his individuality and grow according to his own law of growth”. Following such advice would constitute an important step forward to enhancing religious harmony.

An exclusionary religion is a significant threat to religious harmony. In “inter-faith” conferences, there are globally accepted ethical practices on which religions claim to share common ground. The religions profess that they teach their followers to be compassionate to other beings, not to kill, steal, lie, etc. Such universal ethical principles are appreciated by all, including atheists.

When the theological laws and principles of various religions are explored, some of these “common” ethical principles are outweighed and overrun. If the religion teaches a set of laws that justify violating these fundamental moral principles, then harmony is disturbed. The adherents of that religion kill or convert people of other faiths claiming a religious justification for the same. Now it culminates in a fight between believers and non-believers. And if religious law and religious injunction stand taller than all other laws of acceptable behaviour, then an inter-faith dialogue becomes a non-starter.

Exploring some pathways to harmony

The first step towards arriving at harmony is perhaps acceptance of the belief of others. Meaningful dialogue between different faiths is critical in our journey towards harmony. Interfaith gatherings have transpired for a long time. To ensure that significant progress is achieved in such congregations, it becomes vital to arrive at an agreement on specific concepts, the most necessary of which is to accept that all paths are valid. We have seen earlier how Indian religious traditions revert to the idea of recognising all courses of the land as being valid. Not stopping at merely proclaiming the One Truth, it is backed by various devoutly adhered-to customs that put this concept into practice. Every religious faith should delve into the source of their knowledge and bring out the wisdom of their religion that points to a logical starting point—this elemental acceptance that all paths are valid. A firm commitment by leaders towards this quintessential goal sets a positive foundation for a harmonious society and nation. Acceptance may serve to be more impactful than mere tolerance.

Views from Inter-Faith Conferences

When asked to briefly talk about Judaism and Torah, Rabbi Hillel said, “What is hurtful or hateful to yourself, do not do to your fellow men.” One of the world’s oldest organised religions, the fundamental principle of Judaism has its core belief in the Unity and Oneness of the universal creator.

Take refuge in the Buddha, Dharma, and Sangha, say the Buddhists. In our current context of harmony, it is to rely on a state free from suffering, imbuing positive qualities and being beneficial to others. It is to rely on wisdom as the antidote to suffering. It is to associate with people of knowledge and understanding who are capable of guiding others in their spiritual journey.

Employing all available and impactful mediums of communication, be it social media, movies, books et al., to propagate this message of religious acceptance needs to be sketched as an essential activity for all religions. Today, more than ever, there is an irrefutable need for sensitivity towards our contemporary world. While interpreting the scriptures, there is a need to provide modern analogies. This requires a thorough internalisation of the faith’s core ideas. Many words in today’s context – like heathen, kafir, and mlechas – have acquired many hues for many reasons, including politics and irresponsible media. Religious influencers must ensure that using divisive language is strongly discouraged, which will, in turn, slowly begin to shift the minds of their followers.

Education – the best solution

Only when people in a society are educated about divergent faiths and beliefs can there be a shared understanding amongst them to plan a harmonious way of life. Does that mean the nation should shed its secular credentials and teach religion and moral values in school? While debates over this idea have been raging for many years, children and adults must understand the divergent faiths and beliefs that make Bharat.

A pressing concern for policymakers is what if the nation-state gets accused of promoting one religion over another. A variation to that concern is the fear of thrusting the nation’s majority religion that may lead to the oppression of minorities. Also, the interpretation of religion by teachers in school and parents at home may differ, and children may get confused with the inconsistency they encounter between what is taught at both ends.

Before addressing these concerns, it becomes essential to bring the focus of education upon the following:

  1. Character building
  2. Personality development
  3. Teach regional languages that hold the culture and traditions of the land. This will also enable us to unlock the treasure chest of literature in regional languages.
  4. Preserve nature, culture, and heritage.

There are consequences to not educating our children and adults on these issues. Consider a scenario where a religious minority in the country is unwilling to learn about other faiths. Typically, this has led to the nation conceding for religious or other institutions to be opened to impart spiritual and other forms of education. The child growing up in such a school/institution will not be exposed to other communities’ faiths. In numerical terms, this would mean that a minority percentage (significant or insignificant) of the population grows up in an excluded environment. This leads to them developing a sense of suspicion of people from other faiths. Having been brought up in such a setup, there is a greater likelihood of them falling prey to aggressive beliefs that may harm members of the rest of society.

A step in the direction of harmonization through educational policy

Education plays a primary role in creating a contemporary, integrated, harmonious India (and the world at large). It is an important step in the direction of harmonisation through educational policy. The new educational policy has tried to address many vital areas required to create a more integrated society. While many key aspects are addressed in the policy, some crucial areas relevant to our topic include:

  • Recommendation for exposure to the rich literature in the various Indian languages by great Indian authors ranging from Tagore, Raghavanka to Kamban and Kabir.
  • Recommendation for instruction in the local language of the area, learning of other Indian languages, and including a parallel instruction in English from Class 8.
  • Recommendation of teaching history from a more native point of view.

Conclusion

Animals, plants, birds, water and celestial bodies, seasons, and even inanimate objects function in perfect synchronicity. In human relationships, we see sorrow and jealousy. To bring about harmony in human relationships, there is a need to develop thoughtfulness and respect between individuals.

As Swami Chinmayananda says, “To live a life of harmony is to recognise ourselves as members of an interdependent humanity, living in a composite universe. It is to merge our life with the resonant cadence of the whole and to bring about a beautiful melody of harmonious existence… Man has to be delivered from his own misconception of himself. When he develops respect for the Divinity in him, he develops a sense of holiness, and his reverence toward other human beings increases. Then alone can all economic, political, and social disturbances end. Religion or philosophy, whether reached through the church, mosque, or temple, cultivates in man this self-reverence. The seeker is taught to perceive a greater Reality, a greater and more divine Presence in one and all”.

Om Tat Sat

Author Brief Bio: Swami Mitrananda is a Spiritual Teacher of Chinmaya Chennai. He is Director National Projects, All India Chinmaya Yuva Kendra (AICHYK) and Publisher of Chinmaya Udghosh – an international youth magazine. Swami Mitrananda is an inspiring tutor, daring adventurer, vibrant speaker, creative writer, vigilant administrator & a mentor for many youngsters across the world.

References:

  1. Swami Vivekananda’s Speeches (The World Parliament of Religions, Chicago) Sept 27, 1893
  2. Ethics in Vedanta – Harmony or Ekabhava, https://www.chinmayaupahar.in/blog/ethics-in-vedanta-harmony-or-ekabhava/

 

Harnessing the Resources of Faith: Drawing on Religion to Build a United India

Religion and the idea of India            

As we celebrate the 75th year of India’s independence and count our achievements as a nation, we will need to appreciate how astonishing a feat it has been to achieve and preserve the unity of India as a political entity. When in August 1947 British rule over the sub-continent ended, bringing into existence two new nation states, the India that came into existence was a patchwork of territories formerly ruled by the British and 565 princely states ruled by maharajas and nawabs. India could easily have ended up as more than 500 different nations. But it was not just the fragmented political landscape that the leaders had to contend with. This new nation had large populations of people belonging to all the major religions of the world. Its inhabitants spoke more than a thousand languages recorded in over 66 different scripts. Further, this nation which was impoverished by centuries of colonial rule and by injustice had chosen to be a democracy. As a social and political experiment, nothing so bold and ambitious had been attempted in the world before. Not surprisingly, many western observers at the time had predicted that India would not survive as a unified entity. Winston Churchill famously remarked that the moment India passed out of British rule it would “will fall back quite rapidly through the centuries into the barbarism and privations of the Middle Ages.”[i]

And yet, seven and a half decades later, India stands tall in the family of nations as a young and energetic member that is the world’s largest democracy with one of the world’s largest, most dynamic and fastest growing economies. Over the decades it has emerged as a world leader in areas such as information technology and pharmaceuticals, it has largely/widely overcome the problems of food shortages and famine, more than halved its absolute poverty rate and made immense progress on a host of development indicators including literacy and health. To be sure, this journey has not been without its share of crises and even today India continues to face issues such as poverty, environmental degradation, corruption in institutions, separatist movements and sectarian violence. Yet, its unity as a federal republic gives it the strength and resources to endure crises with resilience, to learn from its collective experience and to continue to advance as a nation.

While there are many factors contributing to keeping India together as a nation, few can deny that a vital cohesive force that binds the nation together is the spirituality of its people. This spirituality finds expression in a culture that values human beings as the creation of the Divine, is open and accepting of people of all backgrounds, that views in all living beings the reflections of the sacred and therefore enjoins respect, gentleness and non-violence in all relationships as the ideal way of life.  It is this spirit of an all-embracing oneness that is conveyed in the ancient Indian ethos of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (the world is one family). This ethos implicitly envisages that the unity of the nation will be a stage in the process of the progressive manifestation of the spirit of oneness in the social and political realm; it reaches its fruition when the principle of the oneness of humankind is firmly established in the consciousness of people, and when India and is sister nations across the world unite as one family.

This spirituality of the Indian people is not a free-floating, amorphous, superficial condition, but rather a state of being that is rooted in the religious beliefs of its people. India remains a deeply religious nation where its peoples’ spiritual convictions have a strong bearing on the way they understand and carry out their civic duties. Thus, living together in peace and unity is viewed not just as an outcome of citizens fulfilling their formal obligations to each other in a social contract – but rather as the expression of the profound spiritual principles that govern interpersonal relationships where the individual finds joy and fulfilment in the well-being of the other. While religion plays a powerful role in India in strengthening the social fabric through its altruistic injunctions, it is a historical fact that from the time of India’s independence, religion has also been made into the cause of conflict and social tension in the country. Following the bloodbath that accompanied the Partition which led to the loss of nearly one million lives, religious differences continued to simmer as an undercurrent of unresolved tension erupting time and again in the form of communal violence.

Over the past few decades there has been a worldwide resurgence of religious fundamentalism. Voices that represent religious extremism and intolerance have increasingly entered the political and social mainstream and, in many countries, they now dominate public discourse. This has created an atmosphere of confusion around the concept of religion where its unifying and constructive role has been steadily obscured by the tendency to view it solely through an identity lens. India too, has not been immune to it and these challenges come at a time of great uncertainty in world history when the need for internal unity is vital to successfully navigate the waves of present and impending crises that can gravely undermine the nation’s progress including the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing geopolitical instability and war, economic recession, climate change, terrorism and a global food and energy crisis.

The need of the hour then is for a constructive discourse involving leaders and representatives of all religions in India on the role of religion in contributing to social harmony. The ground for such a discourse must be laid by clarifying the fundamental nature and purpose of religion as a system of knowledge and practice, and the common foundations of all religions. Such a discourse must show a practical path forward for inter-religious collaboration in contributing to the progress of the nation.

The Oneness of Religion

An analysis of the teachings of the major religions of the world and their impact on human society will reveal that they all share a common nature and purpose. The purpose of all religions has been to develop the spiritual potentialities latent in human nature and through such moral and spiritual development to provide a powerful impetus to the advancement of civilisation. The following quote elaborates on this:

Throughout history, the primary agents of spiritual development have been the great religions. …A vast literature, to which all religious cultures have contributed, records the experience of transcendence reported by generations of seekers. Down the millennia, the lives of those who responded to intimations of the Divine have inspired breath-taking achievements in music, architecture, and the other arts, endlessly replicating the soul’s experience for millions of their fellow believers. No other force in existence has been able to elicit from people comparable qualities of heroism, self-sacrifice and self-discipline. At the social level, the resulting moral principles have repeatedly translated themselves into universal codes of law, regulating and elevating human relationships. Viewed in perspective, the major religions emerge as the primary driving forces of the civilising process.[ii]

While every religion bears the stamp of the particular historical circumstances and cultural setting in which it appeared, the essential spiritual and moral teachings at the core of all religions are one. All religions enjoin upon their followers to develop qualities such as honesty, justice, truthfulness, uprightness, kindness, love and trustworthiness. The Founders of all the major religions exemplified to a superhuman degree perfection in these qualities and set for humanity an abiding example of moral excellence. Although the social teachings, laws and rituals of different religions have differed based on changing historical needs and circumstances, they ultimately can be seen to serve the same purpose of advancing humanity’s collective maturity.

At its heart then, inter-religious harmony is more than a mere expression of interfaith goodwill. Its basis is the oneness of spiritual reality itself to which all religions give expression. As the Universal House of Justice, the supreme governing body of the worldwide Bahá’í community, wrote in a letter to the world’s religious leaders:

It is evident that growing numbers of people are coming to realize that the truth underlying all religions is in its essence one. This recognition arises not through a resolution of theological disputes, but as an intuitive awareness born from the ever-widening experience of others and from a dawning acceptance of the oneness of the human family itself. Out of the welter of religious doctrines, rituals and legal codes inherited from vanished worlds, there is emerging a sense that spiritual life, like the oneness manifest in diverse nationalities, races and cultures, constitutes one unbounded reality equally accessible to everyone.[iii]

A discussion on religion’s nature and purpose must also address the many harmful attitudes, beliefs and practices that are perpetuated in the name of religion and that have their basis in superstition, blind imitation and prejudice. Such beliefs and practices are not only inherently harmful because they stunt individual and collective progress, they can also gradually grow into a dense thicket of dogma and rituals that chokes the vivifying spirit of religion. When religion gets reduced to such beliefs and practices that are neither morally edifying nor amenable to reason, it is a short step away from turning into a source of prejudice, hatred and contention. In this context, the Bahá’í writings identify two conditions that true religion must fulfil if it is to be distinguished from superstition, blind imitation and prejudice. The first is that religion must promote unity and serve the social good. To quote the Bahá’í writings:

“Religion should unite all hearts and cause wars and disputes to vanish from the face of the earth, give birth to spirituality, and bring life and light to each heart. If religion becomes a cause of dislike, hatred and division, it were better to be without it, and to withdraw from such a religion would be a truly religious act.”[iv]

The second condition is that religion must be in agreement with science and reason. To quote from the Bahá’í writings:

If (religion) does not correspond with scientific principles and the processes of reason, it is superstition. For God has endowed us with faculties by which we may comprehend the realities of things, contemplate reality itself. If religion is opposed to reason and science, faith is impossible; and when faith and confidence in the divine religion are not manifest in the heart, there can be no spiritual attainment.[v]

Communal Harmony as a lived reality

For most of India’s masses living in rural and urban areas, inter-religious harmony is a lived reality where people of different religious communities live side by side in friendship forged over generations. It finds expression in a syncretic culture where neighbours belonging to different religions participate in each other’s festivals, visit each other’s holy places and protect and honour the sacred traditions of each community as a part of their common heritage. A recent case study of two informal settlements in Indore carried out by the Bahá’í Chair for Studies in Development at Devi Ahilya Univserity illustrates these deep traditions of inter-religious friendship and tolerance. The study which was carried out in North Toda, a predominantly Hindu settlement, and Kabutar Khana, where the majority of the inhabitants were Muslims, explored how residents of these neighbourhoods drew upon their spiritual convictions of the oneness of humankind and their interconnectedness with nature in addressing common challenges related to water scarcity and flooding. In the process, it uncovers a richly-layered culture of fellowship. To quote from the study:

During the festival of Navratri, Muslims join Hindus in the traditional garba folk dance program in the public square. …During Raksha Bandhan, Hindu and Muslim girls tie (rakhis) on the wrists of their ‘brothers’ of the other background. On the days of Eid, for example, a steady stream of Muslim visitors from Kabutar Khana could be seen at the local medical shop belonging to a Hindu resident, wishing him on the festive occasion and celebrating together.[vi]

The story of these neighbourhoods is the story of countless villages, towns and cities in India. This friendship between people of different religions in neighbourhoods is cemented by the experience of facing common challenges and by sharing in a community’s social and economic processes. As a temple custodian and an owner of a small grocery shop in North Toda explained in the study:

The unity between us is a result of us growing up together, side by side. We have become used to one another. We love each other. If we don’t get along with each other, where else are we going to go? If something happens to me at night, I am not going to go looking for a person of my religion to help me. I turn to my neighbour for help—whatever his religion may be.[vii]

The study further reflected the many ways residents of different religious backgrounds helped each other in addressing the crisis water shortage or flooding. To quote from the study:

When it floods, they provide shelter and food for each other and help one another carry their belongings to safety. The well that is located in the Noori Mosque in Kabutar Khana provides water to Hindus and Muslims when the need arises. Similarly, a yogi in Kabutar Khana provides water from his bore well to Muslims in his neighbourhood particularly during the holy month of Ramadan when they are fasting and they need more water at certain times of the day.[viii]

While the participants in the study spoke eloquently of the inter-religious fellowship in their communities, they were also conscious that they could not take this unity for granted. They were conscious of forces in society that sought to divide them along religious lines. The way they countered these challenges was not by distancing themselves from their own religions to arrive at a neutral ‘secular’ space with the other but rather by countering narrow-minded propaganda that promotes divisiveness with a broad-minded reading of their own scriptures where acceptance of the other becomes an element of one’s own faith and serving the other becomes a duty enjoined by the recognition of their common humanity. The following extract from the study featuring voices of residents in these neighbourhoods captures the way their faith inspires them to overcome barriers and arise to help the other:

A member of a handful of Sikh families who lived in Kabutar Khana, emphasised, “Guru Nanak, our divine teacher, tells us that all humanity is one. There are no real differences between human beings. We have to learn to ignore the worldly differences between people based on caste or creed and serve all human beings.” Participants in this study mentioned that helping people learn to live together harmoniously and with mutual understanding was one of the main aims of religion. …“The purpose of life,” commented a man from North Toda, “is to do some good to those who are less fortunate than us, to be of some use to them, to be a source of happiness to them… Living for ourselves—this is something anyone can do. But to live for others—that is the key to life.” …Some Hindu participants in this study highlighted that the ‘dharma’ of a neighbour is to be a source of strength and support during difficulties and a joyful companion during all the happy occasions of life. The implications of this sense of duty towards one’s neighbour was discussed by a shopkeeper in Kabutar Khana: “Even if my neighbour wakes me up in the middle of the night, I will get up and go to help him. Whatever his difficulty may be—whether he has got into trouble with the police or has to be taken to the hospital—it is my duty to support him and help him.”[ix]

Religion in the 21st Century

Preserving these traditions of inter-religious fellowship and perpetuating them requires efforts from individuals, communities, religious leaders and institutions of society such as the media, the education system and the State. However, such efforts can close-in on themselves if inter-religious unity is considered an end in itself and is not viewed in the context of society’s needs at this moment in history. Unless united communities are driven by a common objective to contribute to the transformation of society and to ever increasing material and spiritual prosperity, unity can become a pretext for passive conformity with the status quo, with all its attendant challenges and injustices. The most secure basis of inter-religious harmony would thus lie in religious communities coming together to apply spiritual principles common to all religions for building a more united, just and prosperous world.

Addressing the complex and unprecedented challenges of the twenty-first century will require the masses of humanity to make deep changes in their patterns of thought and behaviour and a willingness to make profound sacrifices for the common good. The kind of structural and systemic changes that are needed to become more just, united and to restore our balance with nature will require selfless efforts from the masses of humanity on a scale and for a duration never before witnessed. History bears witness that other than religion no other power or man-made ideology has been capable of stirring the depths of human motivation and calling forth the spirit of nobility, sacrifice and initiative needed to achieve such an objective. The world today is in dire need of the power of religion to once again course through the veins of a beleaguered humanity and to stir a common and collective response to humanity’s challenges.

Religious leaders have a unique role to directing the attention of their congregations to the needs of the world. Many heartening examples of religious leaders coming together to rally their congregations around the national drive to address common challenges could be witnessed during the worst phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in India. In one noteworthy example, 25 religious leaders and representatives of interfaith movements in India issued a joint statement to the followers of all religions in India to “reiterate those principles common to all religions that have the greatest bearing on people’s response to the crisis.”[x] The statement which was issued as an initiative coordinated by the Baha’i community of India, called upon adherents of all religions to unite in a common commitment to four spiritual principles that have the most relevance to this crisis: recognition of the oneness of religion, the oneness of humankind, selfless and sacrificial service to the common good and the complementarity between religion and science. Although this was a modest effort, it illustrated the tremendous potential for positive social change that resided in the untapped spirituality of the masses which faith leaders could come together and channelize for the well-being of all.

Conclusion

In final analysis, it is the objective of religion to enable human consciousness to outgrow the tendency of drawing lines between members of the human family. It implies developing qualities of heart and mind that see the reflections of the divine in all human beings regardless of background and to love all humanity unconditionally. This is in essence the spirit of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam. The ancient sages of India who contemplated this vision as an ideal state of collective existence did not live in a globally interconnected world. This generation of Indians, on the other hand, has witnessed the physical interconnectedness of the human family through technological development and therefore can envision humanity as one family. The task ahead for this and coming generations of Indians is to work to translate that vision into a reality in all its fullness by harnessing the immense resources of faith that we all have access to. Let unity and harmony become our dominant narrative and become associated ever more strongly with the reputation and reality of Indian identity, relegating conflict and contention among the religions to an earlier and less mature stage of our history. Let us harness the edifying power of religion towards constructive endeavours that can bring about the spiritual and material prosperity of our nation. In this way India can truly lead the world morally and contribute to global peace and harmony, assuring its rightful place as a leader in spirituality and inter-religious harmony.

Author Brief Bio: Ms. Nazneen Rowhani Secretary-General of National Spiritual Assembly of the Bahá’ís of India.

References:

[i] https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/speeches/1930-1938-the-wilderness/our-duty-in-india/

[ii] https://www.bahai.org/library/other-literature/official-statements-commentaries/one-common-faith/1#525095225

[iii] https://www.bahai.org/library/authoritative-texts/the-universal-house-of-justice/messages/20020401_001/1#024035169

[iv] https://reference.bahai.org/en/t/o/BNE/bne-132.html

[v] https://www.bahai.org/library/authoritative-texts/abdul-baha/promulgation-universal-peace/21#981649643

[vi] https://bahaichairdavv.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/isgp_hope_and_reslience-pdf.pdf. Page.28

[vii] https://bahaichairdavv.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/isgp_hope_and_reslience-pdf.pdf. Page. 21

[viii] https://bahaichairdavv.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/isgp_hope_and_reslience-pdf.pdf. Page.42

[ix] https://bahaichairdavv.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/isgp_hope_and_reslience-pdf.pdf. Pages. 32-33

[x] https://opa.bahai.in/role-of-religion/joint-statement/

Notes:

  • ‘Abdu’l-Bahá. Paris Talks. Bahá’í Reference Library. https://www.bahai.org/library/authoritative-texts/abdul-baha/paris-talks/5#089115387
  • ‘Abdu’l-Bahá. The Promulgation of Universal Peace. https://www.bahai.org/library/authoritative-texts/abdul-baha/promulgation-universal-peace/21#981649643
  • Bahá’í Chair for Studies in Development, DAVV and Institute for Studies in Global Prosperity. Hope and Resilience: The Application of Spiritual Principles to Community Life. https://bahaichairdavv.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/isgp_hope_and_reslience-pdf.pdf
  • Churchill, W. Our Duty to India. March 18, 1931. Albert Hall, London. International Churchill Society. https://winstonchurchill.org/resources/speeches/1930-1938-the-wilderness/our-duty-in-india/
  • Office of Public Affairs of Bahá’ís of India. The Role of Religion in the Fight Against the Coronavirus Pandemic: A Joint Statement by Representatives of Various Religions and Interfaith Organizations. https://opa.bahai.in/role-of-religion/joint-statement/
  • Universal House of Justice. Letter to the World’s Religious Leaders. Bahá’í Reference Library. https://www.bahai.org/library/authoritative-texts/the-universal-house-of-justice/messages/20020401_001/1#024035169
  • Universal House of Justice. One Common Faith. Bahá’í Reference Library. https://www.bahai.org/library/other-literature/official-statements-commentaries/one-common-faith/1#525095225

A Dialogue for Composite Religious Harmony in India: The Road Ahead

“One area where peaceful co-existence has been enormously problematic in the history of humankind is in the relations between world religions. In the past, conflicts generated by religious differences may have been significant and regrettable, but they did not threaten the future of the planet or the survival of humanity.”

His Holiness The Dalai Lama[1]

The challenge of religious harmony and peaceful coexistence will define the task of humanity in the 21st century. The recent rise of religious images in conflict around the globe displays its increasing presence in world affairs. Its relevance in the foreseeable future cannot be undermined. The compelling task for humanity in this century is to pursue the path of religious harmony conquering the stresses of confrontation. The emotive power of religion where a single spark can ignite volumes of risky undercurrents are visible. Hence, religious pluralism, reciprocity and dialogue are some of the rational ways of ensuring communal amity by mellowing mutual attitudes of suspicion and trust.

For this, an in-depth analysis of contemporary society’s spiritual poverty; the enhancement of the view of religion’s embracing role in contemporary society; its ability to present a persuasive, critical appraisal of the modern predicament, particularly in the context of a healthy debate, leading the communities, nations and the world ahead, are vital.

The Indian Context

India, in its seventy-fifth year of Independence stands tall in the comity of nations as a plural, secular democracy. For centuries it has evoked boundless respect with the tremendous privilege and rare opportunity to be the epicentre of innumerable faith traditions along with unprecedented contact with the world’s many cultures. Few countries can boast of such unity in diversity.

For India, championing the idea of religious harmony is not a narrow necessity of electoral politics. Its nationalism is not based on language, geography, ethnicity or religion but a land emerging from an ancient civilisation united by a shared history and sustained by a pluralist democracy.

Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ (the whole world is one family),” a Sanskrit phrase found in  texts of the Maha Upanishad is a key concept embodying peaceful co-existence, diversity, and secularism within its structure, is engraved in the entrance hall of the Parliament of India.[2]

The sentiment of religious harmony, likewise originating in the ancient Indian scripture of the Rigveda, admirably displays plurality of religious thought with its mention “Ekam Sat Vipra Bahudha Vadanti” (wise people explain the same truth in different manners). It also literally means “Truth is one, the wise perceive it differently”.[3]

Indias’s call for unity and solidarity, regardless of religion, language or ethnicity is the idea of one nation that excludes none and accepts differences. In his historic speech in the Parliament of World Religions, Chicago, in 1893, Swami Vivekananda said; “If the Parliament of Religions has shown anything to the world, it is this: It has proved to the world that holiness, purity and charity are not the exclusive possessions of any church in the world, and that every system has produced men and women of the most exalted character.”[4]

Composite Religious Harmony in the Indian Context

Even the most cynical cannot dismiss the essential necessity for religious harmony for a peaceful, progressive India. The idealist perception of a meeting ground of mutual respect enshrined in our Constitution can best serve our democracy. The requisite of moral legitimacy of the burden of peace and harmony therein, obligates a wholesome approach.

In the recent decade, the question of ultra-religious nationalism or creating national identity to the exclusion of religious minorities has stimulated much academic interest and space. It is ironic that Muslims in India must be perceived simultaneously as worthy of emulation and exclusion. Positive stereotypes are often intertwined with negative ones. This paradox of approval and contempt is a typical narration of ideas to serve political narratives.

Further, much deliberation has centred around irreconcilable facets between the Hindu-Muslim identities. For peace to be a continual process, ethnographic studies concentrating on mechanisms to focus on a composite religious harmony must be granted equal space. Dissonance invites adverse repercussions, hampering progress, tilting the scales of harmony, while the amplifying, lightning speed of social media without sanitisation further creates its own nemesis. It must be unequivocally stated that a small band of determined detractors cannot hold the Republic to ransom. The templates for inciting violence, an old conflagration needs to be arrested. The exogenous shock of terrorist attacks, in Paris, India and elsewhere over religious issues still reverberates. Prudence of strategic actors, the efficacy of the state agencies to capitalise in the pursuit of security and harmony is indispensable.

Also, matters of settling scores, and regaining turf harnessed in terms of scoring dividends cannot compensate for the resultant fracture in human relations that can consequently spiral out of control. Those who collude in the matter incongruously emphasise on conflict alone. As a Muslim, it is crucial to reiterate that presently Islam, on several fronts, faces an existentialist crisis—there is an ongoing battle for “the soul of Islam”. The recent murder in Udaipur was a demonic act under the facade of religiosity. Intolerant elements have made every attempt to challenge what has been held as unpardonable attempt with no Quranic validation. Consequently, it created its demons. Perceived profanity leads to confrontational approaches.

A Canvas of Religious Tradition in Islam – Brief Outline

Although Islam’s norms are encompassed in a composite religiosity, in its large canvas of tradition, over a period of time, a variety of streams of thought emerged during its socio-historical-political expansion. Details of these developments are beyond the endeavour of present thesis. Nonetheless, it suffices to mention that various strands of religious thought emerged, ranging from the cosmic-spiritual-assimilative to the exclusive-orthodox-dogmatic.

While the cosmic, spiritual, assimilative traditions embraced by the Sufis later dwindled in numbers, exclusive and orthodox numerically increased with the formation of the clergy at the political behest. These remain high on impact, exerting a sizeable influential at the end of the spectrum.

Correspondingly, the line between exclusivism and fundamentalism has, over a period of time shrunk, as between fundamentalism and extremism. Further, it is generally held that some Muslim majority countries have, by and large, remained inflexible in the advancement of pluralism and yielded to the exclusion and persecution of their religious minorities. This is glaringly visible in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Even in India, Kashmir and some districts of Bengal and Kerala have not taken care of minorities or lived up to the espoused secularism. But this issue also encompasses a larger part of the world including secular democratic republics where the plight of minorities, whether in ethnic, black, religion or gender issues is unenviable.

However, the horizons for optimism are broadening. It must be mentioned that the process of engagement and liberalisation in the Middle East has begun.  It is significant that Arab countries and Israel have taken a step towards peace and normalisation of relations. A joint statement between the state of Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the United States of America has been signed in 2020. Subsequently, Bahrain also signed an agreement and Morocco and Jordan followed.[5] The way forward may be arduous and strenuous; nonetheless the effort is remarkable.

Islam’s Interface with India

There is the contentious question regarding Islam’s interface with India. Critics claim that the indelible legacy of hostilities, tyranny of rulers, forced conversions, destruction of temples, abduction of women still haunt the world. Indubitably, these were lapses by some Muslims, though not Islamic virtues. Moreover, it needs be also stated that there is in India a history about saints, sufis and scholars who sat in opposition to the conquerors. Thus, even while a section of the nobility was concentrating on consolidation of their powers, citizens, both Hindus and Muslims, philosophers, poets, writers, artists, architects, musicians of both communities were engaged in consolidating the syncretic, harmonious trend. The Ganga-Jamuna Tehzib is well known.

Heterogeneity along with adaptability, accommodation and attendant creativity flourished. It was the core characteristic of the socio-cultural-philosophical landscape. The inter-communal fusion is visible in the Bhakti-Sufi Movement of syncretism in the works of Tulsidas, Kabir, Khwaja Moinnuddin Chisti, Ramananda, Guru Nanak, Nizamuddin Auliya, Namadeva, Sri Chaitanya, Farid-ud-din Ganj-i-Shakar, Amir Khusrau and several others. From early times, in the 9th and 10th centuries prior to the advent of conquerors, the works of al Kindi, al Jahiz, ibn Khudadbeh, Yakubi and al Masudi testify to it. Al Beruni, in the early 11th century studied the Indian religion, philosophies, sciences, traditions and culture in his monumental work “Kitab fi tahqiq mafi I-Hind”.[6] A closer reading of his chapter on religion, might have been the terra firma for overcoming theological misunderstandings.[7]

A later manifestation of this was Dara Shikoh’s attempt to identify the convergence of the two faiths discernible in his treatise “The Confluence of the Two Oceans,’’ where he sought to comprehend the Truth. Another example is a mid-17th century work, Dabistan-e-Mazahib, described by a scholar as the greatest book ever written in India on comparative religion.[8]

Ijtihad (Independent Reasoning)

It is true that the silent majority of Muslims in India are peace loving citizens. Belonging to different ethnic groups, sects, races, caste and creeds, they follow the uniform laws of the land. However, most of them remain under the sway of rigid clerics.

In the age of Islamophobia, the time is ripe for Muslims in India to play a lead role in progressive engagement. It is also time for liberal ascendance to take dominance over conservatives fears. Using coercive tools, imposing a narrow litmus test of “Islamnicness” has raised questions on Islam’s compatibility with a “composite religiosity”. The alternate vision of Islamic understanding of ihsan (to do good things) over enforced adherence to religious mores, is dwarfed.

The revitalisation of the legal device of Ijtihad, (independent reasoning) necessitates revival over the doctrine taqlid (imitation, conformity to legal precedent) is imperative. To activate the spirit of inquiry is as necessary now as it was in the past. Legislative inquiry is necessary in every age due to the pressures of growing conditions. To limit juristic discussions to a definition of terms or doctrinal differences or hair-splitting dialectics, turning a dictionary into a fortress, is not in consonance with the dynamic spirit of Islam.

The rich heritage archetypes of foundational Islamic thinkers like Ibn Rusd, al-Farabi, al-Mawardi, Ibn Khaldun, Ibn Taymiyyah, Saadi of Shiraz, and several others, especially on social realism and jurisprudence, besides philosophy and political thought, are a requisite for the focal point of edification. Spiritual underpinning in Waḥdat ul-Wujūd or the transcendent Unity of all Being, the core concept of Ibn ‘Arabī’s philosophy, is a fundamental doctrine in Sufi Islam.

Further, the philosophy of reform and renewal is a recurrent theme in Islamic intellectual thought; the idea of tajdid (renewal) and Islah (reform) is not new to Islamic thought. Ibn Taimiyyah, Shah Walliullah, Mohammad Iqbal, Abdullah al Naim, Tariq Ramadhan, Arshad Arslan, Khalid ibn Abul Fazl, have all sought rejuvenation and transformation.

Muslims in India need to provide adequate answers without apologia. To begin with, religious pluralism in the context of Islamic hermeneutics as the cornerstone suggesting diversity or a pluralist order is not resisted by Islam. Nor is truth the exclusive possession of other many viable religious traditions.  Spiritual sacred space is shared and respected. “In truth, God hath sent thee the Book which confirms those that precede it” (Q 2:2); “We have sent Messengers before thee. Of some we have told thee and of some we have not told thee (Q 40:70); “We have sent you in truth, as a Messenger. And there was never a people without a messenger being sent to them (Q 35:24); (Do not revile the gods of others…”(Q 6 :108)

The Medina Charter, the first ever written, displays that Islam rejects the use of enforcement in religion (Q 2:256); (Q 5:32). Violence, brutality and barbarism ignited by terrorist outfits ISIS, Boko Haram, al Qaida, al Shabab, Jaish-e-Mohammad or any such outfits are condemned by Islam. “What the classical jurists of Islam never remotely considered is the kind of unprovoked, unannounced mass slaughter of uninvolved civil populations that we witness regularly. For this, there is no precedent and no authority in Islam”.[9] Similarly, Timothy Winters writes that the proclamations of bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri “ignore 14 centuries of Muslim scholarship,” and that if they “followed the norms of their religion, they would have had to acknowledge that no school of mainstream Islam allows the targeting of civilians”.[10]

The Prophet has stated that, “He who knowingly lends support to tyranny is outside the pale of Islam (Tabarani). He further stated “The worst form of class prejudice is to support one’s community even in tyranny.” (Baihaqi). Violence and terrorism find no sanction in religion, morality or international law. Such acts are in total contradiction to Islam’s reverence for peace, explicit recognition of tolerance, compassion, social equality, high moral order and spiritual depth.

Unfortunately, in India, perceived hurt Muslim sentiments ensuing in the shedding of blood in the name of religion (sar tan se juda), to proselytisation of violence in the name of the Prophet by a small minority of Muslims are extinguishing the original spirit of Islam. Muslims worldwide agonise, when religious leaders and laity remain silent after there is violence in the name of the Prophet whose mission was to establish peace in a nation where ferocity was the order of the day. Internalising puritanicalism, turning it into a point of mistaking it for a universal truth, is negating the basic tenet of peace in Islam.

This is call to the Muslim leaders, Imams, the madrassas and parents in particular, to deradicalise youth, instructing children that such acts are not only detested and abhorred by Islam but are in total contradiction to Islam’s reverence for peace, explicit recognition of tolerance, compassion, social equality, high moral order and spiritual depth.

Islamic organisations in India, have openly condemned the act of beheading while organisations in Pakistan, have not. Vigilance from the dangerous radicalisation of young minds is a priority as is modernising madrassa education by inclusion of the largest range of secular subjects to equip students to broaden horizons and compete in a wider world and education of Imams to deliver Khutbas (sermons) on a wide range of subjects like peaceful coexistence. Muslim intelligentsia must engage in releasing fresh energy to occupy a vantage point in the public domain.

In this connection, it is imperative to recollect that although Muslims, including from almost all of the Arab world, were severely critical and enraged of Salman Rushdie’s Satanic Verses as it was apprehended as a methodical effort to inflame Muslim sentiments, they ignored Imam Khomeini’s fatwa to execute Rushdie. The Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) restricted itself to call upon member states to ban the book.

Most Prophets in their life time were ridiculed, mocked and threatened. The Quran said to them “Be patient over what they say and leave them graciously” (73:10). The Prophet himself never lowered his dignity when confronted with defamatory remarks or physical attack. Instead, he kindly and patiently went on with his spiritual soul-searching and message of peace. Arguments of the Prophet conducting himself with dignity even though defamed, ridiculed, humiliated and even attacked are ignored.

Misconceptions and contextamonies (quoting out of context) on the subject of apostasy, blasphemy, jehad, kafir— are the general categories of words where misunderstandings abound. Islam does not permit taking the life of a person on the score of religion, “anyone slew a person unless it be for murder or for spreading mischief in the land it would be as if he slew the whole people: and if anyone saved a life it would be as if he saved the life of the whole people” (5:32).

It is important to note that favourable trends to move away from rigidity are fast emerging in the Muslim world. It is heartening that the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the Indonesian Muslim political party and world’s largest moderate Muslim movement, has made a noteworthy breakthrough with Islamic conservatism in an unprecedented decision to abolish the legal category of “infidel” (kafir meaning one who hides the truth) for non-Muslims. Kafir has become a very derogatory term for non-Muslims. Human dignity is not negotiable.[11]

Similarly, numerous Muslims diagonally across the globe currently question the conventional perceptions regarding violence on blasphemy, apostasy. A self-proclaimed clergy “a moral thought police” is not omniscient and Muslims feel the rulings or “fatwas” delivered by them are contextual. Recently, in a pioneering interview with “Al-Arabiya”, the distinguished Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman, initiated a ground-breaking suggestion on concentrating the Constitution and laws on the Koran, eliminating many hadiths (sayings of the Prophet) that are not muttawatir (well known). He speaks of the need for a current “interpretation” of the Koran.[12]

Political Moderation

Currently, rhetoric is a powerful weapon in conflict situations. Hate, particularly with relation to religion has taken dangerous dimensions. While safeguarding freedom of speech, challenging hate through adjudication would be a deterrent. Hatred is ‘a threat to everyone,’ declared Guterres, calling for global effort to end xenophobia and ‘loathsome rhetoric’. “A disturbing groundswell of hate-based violence and intolerance aimed at worshippers across all faiths, must be countered soon before it’s too late,” he said.[13]

Presently, political moderation, a composite religious dialogue for peaceful co-existence is a seminal factor. Allegedly, determining the definition to legitimise citizenry; supremacist approaches, reinventing the convulsions of partition, questioning Muslim patriotism, considering them a breeding and a threat to national security have been disturbing issues. On the other hand, the fringe Muslim belligerency, hard-line urgings instead of reasoned argument, intolerance spilling in collision with other ideologies especially when it comes to religiosity, scornful of their traditions attacking the Hindutva movement, not mentioning thirteen centuries of Islamic fundamentalism or oppression, disrespecting the National flag, has drawn equal angst.

Educational levels yet remain below the national level. Although the graph of women’s education is rising, yet the pace of slow social reforms also results in slow movement and workforce participation. Presently, while autonomous correctives remain a single facet of the matter, communication with the mainstream community is another matter necessitating a forthright dialogue and a cautious calibration as equal citizens. The failure to communicate with the larger community in adequate measure has inclined to limit the boundaries of diversity that are a benchmark of Indian society.

The moorings and ideology of Muslims reflect an inclusive composite society with no room for the practice of violence or intolerance; “All creatures form the family of God and he is best loved of God who loves his creatures” (Baihaqui: Kitab ul Iman). Hubbul watan Minal Iman “love for one’s nation is a part of faith” (Sakhawi). As the Holy Qur’an states, “And break not the oaths after making them firm” (16:92).

Conclusion – India as Homeland – The Road Ahead

India is the cherished homeland—a rhapsody of serenity, peace and security, with a limitless horizon for all Indians where the idea of the “other” is not conceptualised. The task currently is to tutor the outlook on xenophobia, a circumscribed nationalism and a proscriptive democracy. The remarkable enrichment of the heritage of India’s inimitable reciprocity, accommodation and dialogue are rational ways of ensuing communal amity. The values of a composite religious harmony, synchronisation, congruence was not gifted to India. On the contrary they have been ingrained in India’s composite culture.

On December 13, 1946, the Constituent Assembly, when outlining the objectives of the Constitution that later grew into the Preamble, assured the people of the core democratic values of Justice, Liberty and Equality. Fraternity was added as a core value by Babasaheb Ambedkar on February 21, 1948. The preambular values are unexceptionable. Promotion of Fraternity is the pillar in strengthening unity, integrity and social ties assuring that the dignity of the individual citizen is non-negotiable. This fundamental duty is defined in Article 51A(e).

Leaders of the Indian Independence movement—Mahatma Gandhi, Vallabbhai Patel, Jawaharlal Nehru, Maulana Azad, and numerous others from both communities, adhered to the notion of composite nationalism and communal harmony. Muslims in India must be part of the process of India’s advancement as a global power and not mere spectators or beneficiaries. In the past and present they have produced some distinguished social reformers, scientists, educationalists, attorneys, artists nurturing India’s splendorous progression. Sir Syed Ahmed Khan, Begum Aijaz Rasul, Abadi Babo Begum, Bi Amma, Begum Hasrat Mahal, Maulana Mumtaz Ali Khan, Maulvi Chirag Ali, Justice Ameer Ali, Saif Tyabji, Dr Zakir Hussain, Dr. APJ Abul Kalam, Salim Ali, Azim Premji, Ustad Vilyat Khan and many others have contributed to India’s magnificence and accomplishment.

Currently, centrality of civil society to enable a composite religious dialogue conceptualised in interpersonal relationship as a process of dynamic engagement and function is quintessential. Silence is not an option. Emerging trends imbued with greater realism can discard inherited ideological inertia to realise greater possibilities.

A leap of faith moving towards an aspirational civilisation, intersecting, firming the thread for a religious dialogue would be motivating. A civil society outreach strategy could focus on the promotion of a composite religious dialogue, strengthening national integration, fostering diversity through collaborate action programs and greater inter-faith interchange with religious leaders. Cultural and social organisations representing key sections of society could open fresh vistas for alliances. The requisite conversation among the people of India solicits commencement. As the venerable Buddha said, it is time to turn the poison into medicine.

“Chaman mein ikhtelate rango buh se baat banti hain,

Hum hi hum to kya hum hain, Tumhi tum ho to kya tum ho”

Sarshar Sailani

(In the garden there an integration of colour and aroma, togetherness is when we integrate)

Author Brief Bio: Zeenat Shaukat Ali is the Director General, Wisdom Foundation (World Institute of Islamic Studies for Dialogue, Non-violence, Gender Justice and Peace).

References:

[1] His Holiness, The Dalai Lama; “Towards True Kinship in Faiths. How the World’s Religions can come Together”; ABACUS, London, 2012 p xi

[2] Maha Upanishad, Chap 6, verses 72,73

[3] Ekam Sat Vipra Bahudha Vadanti” is a Sutra quote from of all the over one hundred Upanishads. This aphorism means: “That which exists is ONE; sages call it by various names.”

[4] Swami Vivekananda’s Speech, Parliament of World Religions, Chicago 1893; Edited by: Sanchari Chatterjee, September 11, 2017.

[5] “Israel, UAE and Bahrain sign Abraham Accord; Trump says “dawn of new Middle East””. Press Trust of India. The Hindu. 2020-09-16.

[6] Al-Biruni (d. after 1050) translated Sanskrit classics into Arabic. He then wrote his monumental “Kitab fi tahqiq mafi I-Hind” in order to acquaint his Ghaznavid rulers with Hinduism. He claimed that barriers separating Hindus from Muslims were based either on lack of education, political reasons or language barriers.

[7] Ibid, Al-Biruni ; “Kitab fi tahqiq mafi I-Hind”

[8] The Dabestān-e Mazāheb  “school of religions” is a Persian language work that examines and compares South Asian religions and sects of the mid-17th century. The work, whose authorship is uncertain, was probably composed in about 1655 CE. The text’s title is also transliterated as Dabistān-i Mazāhib , Dabistan-e Madahib, or Dabestan-e Madahe.

[9] Lewis, Bernard (27 September 2001). “Jihad vs. Crusade”. Opinionjournal.com.

[10] Winters Timothy; “Abdal-Hakim Murad, Bin Laden’s Violence is a Heresy Against Islam”. Islamfortoday.com; 3 January 2010.

[11] The word been abolished the Legal Category of kafir “Infidel” within Islamic Law, Unprecedented Rulings Issued by the Highest Authority of the World’s Largest Muslim Organization Historic Effort to “Transform the Prevailing ‘Muslim Mindset,’ for the Sake of World Peace and to Achieve a Harmonious Communal Life for All Mankind” . (Barnabas Aid, World’s Largest Islamic Organisation Drops Legal Category of “Infidel” in Historic Decision (October 22, 2019 )

[12] HRH Mohammed Bin Salman attempts Reform in Islam; Al Arabiya, by Kamel Abderrahmani; 5/08/2021, 11.06. MBS says the reform is clear: “The government, where Sharia is concerned, has to implement Quran regulations and teachings in mutawatter (well-known) hadiths, and to look into the veracity and reliability of ahad hadiths, and to disregard “khabar” hadiths entirely, unless if a clear benefit is derived from it for humanity. So, there should be no punishment related to a religious matter except when there is a clear Quranic stipulation, and this penalty will be implemented based on the way that the Prophet applied it.” In this case, according to this criterion, only 10% of the valid hadiths remain, which are those converging with the Koran. (Published by Buletin Al Anwar on August 21, 2020; Hubbul Watan Minal Iman 26th January 2021 Republic Day||Baughe Mufaddal|

[13] UN News, Global Perspectives, Human Stories, TOI, April 29th 2022

Religious Pluralism, Secularism and Uniform Civil Code

After the abolition of the pernicious practice of ‘Instant Triple Talaq,’ it is time to focus attention to the introduction of a Uniform Civil Code across the country. In India, the issue of uniform civil code is oft debated in the context of prevailing religious pluralism and secularism, but is there a logical correlation amongst these three.  Secularism, in the sense of respect for all religions, is a logical corollary of religious pluralism. It is a socio-political approach to religious pluralism. Now the question is whether the need for uniform civil code is also not socio-political and why it should not be shorn of all religious considerations. Based on the distinction between the sacred and the temporal can we not confine it to temporal sphere only and do not allow religious consideration to overshadow it?  Do national unity and social solidarity not demand uniform civil code?  Religion is a matter of personal belief but uniform civil code is an interpersonal matter. Should the two not be separated? These and such other concerns need to be discussed in the contemporary debate.

Secularism and Uniform Civil Code

Secularism and uniform legal code are the hallmarks and requirements of a civilised and developed society. Though initially religion evolved as a human response to the ‘transcendental’, it has come to involve both the sacred and non-sacred life of human being. But in an ideal situation, role of religion should be restricted only to the sacred. The immanent worldly life is distinct though not separate from the religious life. The nature, mode of living and goal of the two are different; in a pluralistic society they must neither be mixed nor conflated. An absence of this requirement results in complicated problems which need to be thrashed out for integrated and peaceful living. A meaningful solution to these problems, which is agreeable to all concerned, requires conceptual clarity and logical analysis of the issues involved so as to draw out their clear-cut distinctions and interrelations. This is particularly so in case of a uniform legal code to regulate the mundane life of all citizens of a country. This is not a matter of feeling or sentiment but of understanding the realities of life in a given situation. It is not an imposition of some pattern of living on an unwilling section of the society but a rational acceptance of the need and utility of uniformity of laws in some spheres of life.

The problems involved here are essentially sociological but they acquire religious and political overtones by viewing them in the background of religion and politics. They pertain to the way of life of a particular society which is religiously pluralistic and in which different sections follow different sets of beliefs and practices traditionally handed down and claimed to be sanctioned by religion. But the problems are not at all religious and religion has nothing to do with civil life in a secular set up. In a theocratic society, civil life is bound with and is governed by a particular religion but that is not the case with a secular society. Whatever be the meaning of secularism, be it state’s indifference to all religions or equi-distance to all religions or equal regard for all religions (and here again a distinction can be drawn between Sarva Dharma Samabhava and Sarva Dharma Sadbhava[1] the spheres of religious life and civil life need to be clearly demarcated. The human life is an organic whole and therefore, one sphere of life cannot be separated from another, but this does not mean that they cannot be distinguished and treated separately and differently. It is just like an organism consisting of multiple organs that are inseparable in a holistic and integral living but each organ can be looked at separately physiologically and treated separately medically for cure of ailments. The concepts of ‘separability’ and ‘distinguishability’ follow different sets of logic and they need not be confused in a scientific thinking.

These problems get further complicated when a distinction is drawn between majority and minority sections of a community on religious grounds. In fact, in a secular set up, such a distinction is illogical and irrational since the very connotation of the term ‘secular’ is antithetical to such a distinction. But in practical life we often care little for logic and reason, particularly when vested interests get entrenched. In a democracy, where people are less educated and where vote-bank politics is rampant, these problems take political colouring. Purely sociological problems are posed as deeply religious. In a society where no distinction is drawn between religious education and education about religion, the so-called protectors of religion acquire an upper hand to exploit religiosity of the masses and lead them to believe that these problems are intimately related with their religious life. The political leaders take shelter of these ‘protectors of religion’ for their own political mileage. It must be made clear that no satisfactory solution can be arrived at if these problems are approached from the ill-founded religious or political considerations because these are not only irrelevant but they bring in extraneous considerations also. If these considerations are allowed to play their nefarious role, they will not only cloud the real issues but will also generate ill will among the sections of the society, endangering peace and harmony.

Need for a Uniform Civil Code

A true religion is never dogmatic and obscurantist and it cannot be so, but some so-called protagonists of a religion are so and therefore they will never permit solution or dissolution of any such problems, since there lingering on is helpful to their self-aggrandisement. Inter-faith dialogues and means like this are of no avail firstly because these problems are not genuinely religious and secondly because those who get involved in these may not have an open and positive mind. A political approach is also bound to fail because the party in power and the party or parties aspiring to come to power have to care for the support of the concerned sections to get votes. It is not helpful to resort to referendum to ascertain the views of different sections because there will be no unanimity. It is misleading to talk of mass approval or disapproval through referendum to ascertain the views of different sections because such a process is generally vitiated by the opinion of a handful of vocal people who may influence the minds of the masses. It may happen that the masses care little to express themselves or they may be incapable of doing so because of lack of knowledge and true information and they may be carried away by a few influential people who may claim to be their leaders. These handful people, quantitatively very insignificant, pose to be elite and their views are passed on as majority opinion. To be influential is one thing and to be scientific is an altogether different thing. Only a scientific mind can have dispassionate and objective temper and may approach issues logically without taking sides. Through proper education, that solution can be made known and disseminated among the concerned people. Of course, what is stated above is theoretical and its actual implementation is not easy, but it is not impracticable either. Given a will, there can be a way.

Against this background we have to view the problem of Uniform Civil Code in the democratic and secular Republic of India. The problem has been lingering on since independence. The judiciary has voiced concern about it. It has pointed out anomalies in the provisions of our Constitution, which the Indian Parliament has to rectify. Indian lawmakers cannot escape their duty on the specious grounds that the Supreme Court has only given a suggestion or advice and not a ‘directive’. The argument also cannot be used that pending amicable agreement, any such enactment may lead to more fragmentations. These are all excuses which vested interests will put forth to further their own agenda. If the Constitution can be amended by inserting the notion of ‘Secularism’ why should its necessary corollary of ‘Uniform Civil Code’ be not incorporated? Simply put, if the demand has come from one section of the community and is opposed by another section, this does not diminish the need and desirability of Uniform Civil Code.

The issue of Uniform Civil Code has to be approached scientifically and in a broader national perspective, but unfortunately, we have not done so. We have not only failed to discern that it is a sociological problem and not religious or political, we have also failed to make a subtle but very vital distinction between change in ‘Muslim Personal Law’ and enacting a ‘Uniform Civil Code’. Logically, these two are not the same. A sociological issue has to be viewed taking it out from its religious, rather sectarian, and political confinements. If this is done, not only will the controversy wither away, there will also be dissolution of the problem. It has to be understood that the scope and canvas of Uniform Civil Code is much wider than the scope and canvas of Muslim Personal Law.

The Muslim Personal Law has been taken up for consideration here because the need for Uniform Civil Code has primarily and initially arisen in the context of the Muslim section of Indian community and the support and opposition to it has come from some vocal elements of the community. But it will hold good for other sections also. The advice of the Supreme Court first came in famous Shah Bano case. But this should not be misunderstood as isolating and singling out Muslim section of our community. One can as well take the example of any other section. This point needs to be emphasised because otherwise there is a danger of its being misunderstood as anti-Muslim.

Islam is a religion adhered to in India and outside. “Muslims in India” is a sociological entity. Some enlightened Muslims have realised and appreciated this distinction. Islam is the same all over, whether practiced in India or elsewhere, but “Muslims in India” does not mean ‘Muslims outside India’. The two are not to be equated. The expression ‘Indian Muslim’ is meaningfully and legitimately used to distinguish Muslims outside India and this is acceptable to all. We can profitably make use of this distinction in approaching this problem. Anything concerning Islam is religious but anything concerning ‘Indian Muslim’ is not necessarily so. Indian Muslims do have facets other than religious. It has been unfortunate that we have very often overlooked this distinction. The same thing has happened with Urdu language which is identified with Muslims though it has been a language or mother tongue of many non-Muslims as well.

Change in Muslim Personal Law and enactment of Uniform Civil Code are not one and the same because there can be change in the former without affecting the latter though not vice versa. Muslim Personal Law touches only one section of the Indian community whereas enacting Uniform Civil Code affects all sections of society. There are many sections and sub-sections in Indian community based on religion or sectarian tenets. Had there been only two sections, say Hindu and Muslim, even then, the two phrases would not have been synonymous because uniformity would have demanded transcendence from both the sections as no Code of anyone could be regarded as standard. The reality is that we have a multiplicity of social groups not based on religion alone and one has to take cognisance of all of them. Since it is a social issue, social groups and not religious groups should be the basis of our consideration.

When some Muslim men and women asked for a change in Muslim Personal Law they had limited objective of bettering the lot of Muslim women. The need for Uniform Civil Code has altogether different considerations. It cannot be argued that even though desirable it is not possible because the Muslim Personal law is based on ‘Shariyata’ which incorporates divine injunctions unchangeable by human beings. Firstly, this argument is irrelevant because it obliterates the distinction between the sacred and the secular. Secondly it is untenable because it is based on the confusion between changing the ‘Shariyata’ and changing an inadequate interpretation of ‘Shariyata’. Change in Muslim Personal Law only calls for change in an inadequate interpretation of ‘Shariyata’. The traditional interpretation is inadequate and outdated. Many Islamic countries have modified it though some retrograde minds have strived for its ‘Talibanisation’. The progressive minds do not approve this Talibanisation. This apart, every divine injunction is meant for human beings and it is to be interpreted by a human being. This is done in accordance with an individual’s noetic or intellectual capacity. Corresponding to the advancement in knowledge, there is also a change in the noetic capacity of the human being that calls for a change in the interpretation. History of humankind has witnessed such a change from time to time as also resistance to such change. This is the law of nature. If, with the advancement in knowledge, no change is instituted in the interpretation, there will be no correspondence between knowledge and reality, theory and practice and this will surely retard the growth of society. The backwardness of Muslim women is a testimony to this. Let it be made clear that whatever is stated about Muslim women is equally applicable to some other sections of the Indian community.

Even if it is argued that a change in Muslim Personal Law involves a change in the ‘Shariyata’ there should be no objection to it if the change is desirable. In this world, God has permitted change. Change is the law of life. It is the basis of cosmic development. Evolutionary thinkers like Darwin have argued that if we do not keep pace with change, in the absence of adjustment with the environment we shall not survive in the struggle for existence and the consequence will be total extinction. Whether Darwinianism is true or not, the point relevant to our analysis is that good change is not something derogatory or condemnable or uncalled for and even God is not averse to it because He has created a changing universe. If it is so, why to create unnecessary fuss about unchangeability of divine injunctions. Further, every law is enacted in accordance with the needs of the time, place and circumstances and a change in them calls for and admits a change in the law. The ‘Shariyata’ is based on the circumstances prevalent in the Arab world centuries before. Now the circumstances have radically changed and therefore, there is no justification for its continuous rigid adherence. Any resistance to it is sheer obscurantism.

Confusing the change in Muslim Law with Uniform Civil Code, it has been argued that this will result in losing of identity by the Muslims in India. It is a bad argument. It should be asked whether continuance of this harmful and outdated law is the only means or the real means of to preserve identity. This smells of narrow-minded sectarian approach. If we approach it as Indians, all such talk will appear meaningless. If we consider national unity and solidarity as desirable ideals, and there can be no two opinions about this, then also it demands a uniform pattern of social and lawful behaviour for the whole nation. Uniform code of social behaviour is not the only means of national unity and solidarity but surely it is one of the most important and essential means.

Religion is   primarily a personal matter though it does have social dimension. But in a civilised and advanced society, it should not be allowed to cloud social concerns. There should be meaningful separation between the two. This is particularly so in a secular state. Law has to distance itself from religion.

The need for Uniform Civil Code has a humanitarian aspect as well. There is no denying of the fact that the place and position of women in our society is far from satisfactory, if not pitiable. On the one hand we put forth equality, liberty, fraternity and all other egalitarian ideals as the objective of our social existence, on the other hand we have been continuing with unjust practices, maltreatment and deprivation of women. The preamble of our Constitution enshrines these cherished ideals but they should not remain merely decorative.

Conclusion

In conclusion, it must be reiterated that whatever is said about the Muslim Law holds good about Hindu, Christian, Parsi and other sections and groups in India as well. There are many harmful customs of the tribal communities which need to be brought within this purview. For this enterprise, though noble and desirable, mutual trust is needed and this can be cultivated by proper education which is the sole remedy of our country’s ills and evils.

Author Brief Bio: Prof. S. R. Bhatt is Chairman, Indian Philosophy Congress; Chairman, Asian-African Philosophy Congress; National Fellow, Indian Council of Social Science Research, Government of India Former Chairman, Indian Council of Philosophical Research, and Former Professor & Head, Department of Philosophy, University of Delhi.

References:

[1] Sarva Dharma Samabhava is often translated as “All religions are the same” or “All path’s lead to the same destination (In a religious sense)”, although its literal meaning is closer to “All dharma/faiths are possible”. The term ‘Sarva Dharma Samabhava’ means literally equal respect for all religions.

An Agenda for Unity: An Interview with Shri Krishna Gopal, Sah-Sarkaryawah, Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS)

Swadesh Singh: Despite suffering repeated invasions for more than a thousand years, and also suffering the brunt of partition, India has still retained its essential core unity and its civilisational heritage. What factors do you think have contributed to this outcome?

Krishna Gopal: When we look into the Indian history, despite the fact that there were numerous states which were ruled by different kings, yet the idea that each kingdom was a part of a larger Bharat was deeply ingrained in the consciousness of the rulers as well as the people. That is why India has remained united. It is an ideological, cultural and philosophical construct, which for thousands of years encompassed the land mass stretching from the Himalayas in the North to Kanya Kumari in the South and from the coastal areas of Gujarat and Pakistan in the West, to Parshuram Kund in Arunachal Pradesh in the East. This is a fundamental unity that goes far beyond political unity. That is why over 560 princely states merged with India, when Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel exhorted them to do so.

Swadesh Singh: In the above context, to promote unity, when slogans such as “Hindu-Muslim-Sikh-Christian are all brothers,” were propagated, was it done because there was an assumption that there was difference within which needed to be bridged?

Krishna Gopal: Linguistic and geographic diversity is visible to anyone who travels across the country. The food, the festivals, the very colours of India change as we travel. But these are outward differences; internally, there is a common and similar fundamental philosophy of oneness. Despite differences in language, each language, in its core, ​​propounds the same fundamental philosophy. The values of life, be it in the sense of devotion, reverence for the earth, the concept of karma, birth and rebirth, Nirvana, the idea of salvation etc., all find resonance, whether spoken in Bengali, Oriya, or any other Indian language. This is because there is a unity of philosophy, which is propounded by all languages. The slogans you mentioned were brought in later. They are political slogans.

Swadesh Singh: How is this fundamental unity you speak of to be understood and brought to the masses in the context of present-day society?

Krishna Gopal: The fundamental unity is already existing. We simply have to look beneath the diversity that we see all around us. If people from Assam and West Bengal go to North India, they will observe the same devotion to Krishna as is practised by them. In Kerala, the language is Malayalam, but the poetry of devotion is the same. The plays and articles that have been written by the poets and writers of Assam and Bengal convey the same sentiment. This is the fundamental unity. We need people to travel more, study more and look beneath the superficiality. You see the similarity in the works of Thiruvalluvar in Tamil Nadu and of Guru Nanak Dev ji in Punjab. This is the fundamental unity.

Swadesh Singh: Over the centuries, we have had great seers who have propagated this spirit and unity of India such as the great scholar poet Sankaradev of Assam in the 15th century and Adi Shankara of Kerala who established the Shardapeeth in the eighth century. In the sixteenth century we had Raskhan, a Muslim who became a Krishna devotee as also Tajbibi, which showed an intermingling and an assimilation of culture. India was a great melting pot of culture, so why did the country have to bear the trauma of partition? What happened to that fundamental unity?

Krishna Gopal: When the invasion of Islam took place about 1000 years ago, it came to spread a particular ideology. The inhabitants of this land had never experienced in life a situation that the invaders after winning, to spread their ideology, would attack our original religion, destroy our temples, our ideology and our places of worship. However, despite the fact that India’s intellectual class was under the rule of Islam for seven to eight hundred years, even under the rule of Islam, they fought a long struggle to keep their ideas and their society safe. And they succeeded. In other parts of the world, subjected to Islamic conquest, the local population was subdued and consumed by the invading ideology. But India was the only exception. So, the first thing that has to be recognised is that the people of India fought continuously to save their religion, culture, thoughts and their society. But when the Britishers came, over a period of two hundred years, they cleverly attacked this fundamental unity of India. The cultural unity of India could not be broken by Islamic invasions because the basis of this unity was not political. Hindus were not kings, but pilgrimages continued. Hindus did not have an army and their temples were broken, but the people had the Bhagwad Gita and the Ramayana, and their faith could not be broken. So, the British created rifts within communities, which led to deep divisions and eventually to partition.

Swadesh Singh: Today, the need is about promoting communal harmony and unity within communities, which really means talking about Hindu-Muslim unity. If we consider the two communities to be separate, then will not unity also be very superficial, or are we looking at unity at the political level only?

Krishna Gopal: The Sanatan society that has been living in India has a big basis for its unity. There are hundreds of sects in India, of different types and having different rituals, worship practises and traditions, and yet everyone is united. The basis of this unity must first be understood. Its basis is that in the eternal thought of India, we have accepted some things which are all embracing such as the thought behind the words, ‘Sarve Bhavantu Sukhinah’. It is a prayer for happiness, not just for people who believe in our idea, but for all the people of the world, regardless of their belief system. This philosophy thus also seeks happiness for the people of Pakistan and China and all other parts of the globe. It is a philosophy for universal good. There is thus a pervasive unity in Sarve Bhavantu Sukhinah. We have to understand this. Secondly, India’s Sanatan Samaj has accepted another principle for thousands of years, from Vedic tradition till today. The underlying principle with this thought is that there will be people who say something other than what we believe, there will be people who believe in another idea. So, a theory was established from the tradition of Rigveda that the believers of a second idea can be nice people too. When the Vedic sage said Ekam Sadvipra Bahudha Vadanti, he gave a certificate of approval to an alternate viewpoint. Any idea, said the sage, can be good. It must not be rejected outright. This then is the mantra to unite infinite diversity—in other words, this is unity in diversity. Hence, we have two basic principles: One, a comprehensive imagination of happiness for all, and two, to have a big mind to accept any idea with respect. This is essentially the formula for harmony and unity which overcomes the diversity of languages, dialects, climate, food, clothing and ideologies.

Swadesh Singh: You have done a lot of work on Dara Shikoh as also on a number of Muslim saints who were trying to understand Indian philosophy and thought. But let us talk of the last two hundred years before independence where we see the emergence of a new kind of politics by the British. In 1905, the British government partitioned Bengal on the basis of religion and in 1906, the Muslim League was formed. In 1909, the Muslims were given a separate electorate, which paved the way for them to claim a separate identity and nationality. Now, all these people were also part of the Indian cultural tradition, and in the villages, they followed the customs and traditions of the other communities. Thereafter, it took just a few decades before the country was partitioned. Today, these issues keep cropping up and talks of majority and minority have separated the communities. How do we deal with this issue?

Krishna Gopal: The British understood one thing and that was that their reign would end quickly if India remained united. Thus started British attempts to create a cleavage between Hindus and Muslims. During the Muslim invasions, a lot of cross-cultural confluence had taken place in many spheres. Muslims got engrossed in Indian music, Muslim Qawwalis became popular, Muslims started worshiping the tombs, we see the emergence of the Tajiya procession and the like. We also see many Muslims translating Hindu sacred texts to Persian and Arabic. This continued for five to six hundred years. Britain realised that to continue ruling the country, it was essential to break this unity. Thus started the attempts to isolate the Muslim society and set it apart by giving various kinds of inducements. The Muslim League was formed by the British as was the conspiracy to divide Bengal into Muslim Bengal and Hindu Bengal. Gradually, the Muslim community in India distanced itself from its roots and the draft of the partition of the country was prepared. But with the partition of the country, the problem remained unsolved as a large number of Muslims remained in India. Earlier, Jinnah would say, how can minority Muslims be safe in a majority Hindu state. That fear still remains. So, to bring unity, it has to be done by a change of mind and heart and feelings. This is what needs to be fixed.

Swadesh Singh: Articles 25 to 30 of India’s Constitution guarantees that the rights of minorities will be protected. However, politics that developed in India over the last 75 years has veered from protecting the rights of minorities to the appeasement of minorities. Has this disrupted Indian unity?

Krishna Gopal: With independence, every citizen got the right to vote and the vote became an object of great value. Some political parties then started looking into collecting bulk votes and created new terminology to get such votes. One such terminology was the word minority. This word is a foreign construct, which came from Europe. It meant a small group that is not from that country, having migrated from somewhere, for some reason. It referred to a people who did not belong to that country or that race. But in India, Muslim society was a big society. Post-independence, it was about 12 to 13 percent of Indian society. On that basis alone, they should not have been referred to as a minority. Most of these Muslims were converts from here. How could they be called minorities, simply because they changed their religion? But once formed into a block to get their votes, they were given something or the other to ensure that they always remained separate. What should have ended with the British departure unfortunately did not happen, because the majority-minority concept was created. We are facing the consequences now.

Swadesh Singh: How much effort is required now to see that assimilation takes place?

Krishna Gopal: The Indian state gives citizenship, which confers all the rights to an individual as given in the Constitution. But to be a national you have to change your mindset. Citizenship gives you certain rights constitutionally. Nationality determines your duties. As soon as you become a national, you feel connected with the nation through the tradition of thousands of years. So, you feel the happiness and sorrow of the nation as yours. You feel the history and geography of the nation as yours. Nationality hence should be equal for all. The feelings of happiness and sorrow of the nation, the feelings of those who are enemies and friends for the nation are the same. All citizens must share this nationalist sentiment. As an example, our former President, Dr Abdul Kalam, who was a great scientist, developed various missiles for India. He named them Akash, Nag Trishul, etc. These names are symbols of the nationalist sentiment. Our Muslim brothers and sisters must associate themselves with the history of the country and not with the history of the invaders who destroyed the temples, tormented the people, levied the jizya tax and caused great pain and suffering. If they associate themselves with the invaders, then how will they be called national?

Swadesh Singh: The debate on communal harmony for the last 75 years in India, that is, has centred on secularism. Hindu society by its very nature is secular. But the practise of secularism has not been uniform, both within the polity as well as within certain communities. The Honourable Prime Minister in his Independence Day address spoke about a ‘nectar period’, where India has to move forward for the next 25 years. We imagine a prosperous Bharat – a ‘Samarth’ Bharat. How should we now debate the idea of communal harmony? What should be its form? And how should society take it forward?

Krishna Gopal: There are two things which need to be discussed. The first is providing financial and other assistance to minorities. It is done in the name of their welfare, but the results can never be good. For example, we give scholarships to the children of minority communities to study. It is okay, as it is given to poor children. But suppose, in a class of 40 children, there are five children from the minority communities who are poor and are being given a scholarship. But there are 10 other children in that class who are also poor, but they are not given a scholarship because they do not belong to the minority community. This creates discord, because in the minds of those ten children, the question arises: Why have we not been given help, when the condition of our house is even worse than theirs? Such one-sided assistance only creates greater differences in society instead of harmony. So, financial and other assistance must be uniformly given to all, rather than on a segregation basis. The recent example of the government providing toilets and cooking gas to all poor households regardless of their religion is the way forward. Help should be given to those who need it. If there is greater poverty in the minority community, then automatically they will get more. Banks should be opened where there is a need for a bank. Training should be given to those artisans who need them. This country is ours—we should not divide it in the name of minority-majority as has happened thus far. We need to look at all citizens with the same eye and not from a religious viewpoint. This was so stated in the Constituent Assembly but this could not happen. The people who were in the Constituent Assembly, the people who were our architects of the Constitution, had this vision. We need to realise this vision, which can be done by looking at the whole of society as one. To end poverty, we have to look at all the poor in the whole society and not at just one particular religious group.

Swadesh Singh: For the last 50 years, your work has focused on keeping the whole of society at centre-stage. Since Independence, a lot of work has also been done on equality too. I will now take up the issue of fraternity. How should India move in this direction, as a society?

Krishna Gopal: The Constitution has given equal rights, equal freedom to all. You can go anywhere in the country, live anywhere, get education, get justice, do a job, do business, buy land, vote, contest elections—this is the right of everyone. The Courts are the same for all as is the Constitution, but this, by itself, will not lead to fraternity. Constitution can give rights. But the Constitution is not capable of bringing about a change of mind. For that, something else has to be done. We must remember that the history of the last 700 to 900 years has also deeply ingrained certain memories in people’s minds. The invaders cannot be considered as role models, and so this is a mind-set change which is required. If some people continue to consider those that vandalised and destroyed our temples, imposed Jizya tax and tyrannised and brutalised the people as their leaders, then the rest of the society will associate these people with the invaders, and fraternity will not come about. The first thing then that needs to be done is that the people living in India should be separated from the people who wrote the history of the ruin of this country. Secondly, as I stated earlier, there can be any number of faiths, creeds, sects in the world; the feeling of respect for everyone is the ‘Sanatan‘ ideology of India. This is what it means to be an Indian—respecting every faith and creed of the world and imagining everyone’s happiness. These two attributes define being an Indian. We have to wait till these two conditions come about, but how this will happen is a difficult question to answer. In Indian tradition, it is a big condition to respect everyone’s views. And imagining everyone’s happiness is the second big condition. When an Indian goes abroad, he takes these two ideas with him and respects the views of the people in that land, whether it is the United States, Canada, UK, Germany or any other part of the globe. He imagines the happiness of the people there. In his prayer, he always says ‘Sarve Bhavantu Sukhin‘: If these two things will come to all people, then it will be easy to bring a sense of fraternity. Yes, we have had hundreds of years of turmoil, struggles, ups and downs and suffering, but today we are free. An Independent India means India remembering its ancient glorious form, keeping its philosophy in mind, moving forward in the light of that philosophy which portrays unity in diversity. Many a time, this diversity is understood in the form of a bundle of hundreds of different types of wood, tied with a rope. This is true, but it is only a half-truth. Let us understand it in terms of a tree, which has multiple branches that proliferate and extend all around. The root is however the same. The diversity that India envisions is vastly expanded from one branch of this tree to the other. The unity is in the root, diversity is seen only in the branches. Conflicts can arise in that diversity, but if fundamental unity is seen then these struggles and differences cease. This is the fundamental philosophy of India. To see ‘One’ in many. And this vision of ‘Oneness’ has the power to end all discrimination, jealousy and conflict. There is great power in unity. The vision of unity is capable of quelling all conflicts and disputes.

Brief Bios: 

  • Shri Krishna Gopal is Sah-Sarkaryawah, Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS).
  • Dr. Swadesh Singh is an Assistant Professor at Delhi University and General Secretary of the Alumni Association of JNU (AAJ).

Chinese Aggressiveness in the Region: An Analysis

China’s growing aggressiveness in recent years has much to do with China’s self-image and how its citizens perceive China’s place in the comity of nations. While individuals have personality traits, a survey of a group of countries carried out over three years has suggested that a country too, can be said to have personality traits.[1] With respect to China, this survey suggests that as a country, Chinese people exhibit two distinct traits. One, they have a deep, abiding belief in the ideals of humanism, encompassing altruism, compassion, and understanding. Two, the people showed a preference for order and organisation. They preferred certainty and thoroughness, and often judged success in terms of task accomplishment. On the macro level then, it appears that humanism and order are two traits valued by the Chinese people.

So, if humanism and order constitute the personality of China, why is China perceived as an aggressive and volatile force? This is where the concept of a Nation’s character comes in. This refers to the shared beliefs or perceptions of personality characteristics common to members of a particular nation, both within the nation and outside it. This perception of China in the eyes of its own people and even outside of China is controlled by the Communist Party of China, the CPC, which founded the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and is its sole ruling party.

Viewed through this lens, the personality of China is not congruent with its character. This has the potential to lead to internal unrest, protests and displeasure against the ruling dispensation. Hence, we see the heavy hand of propaganda inside and outside of China, by the CCP controlled outlets, trying to convince their own people and the outside world that a CPC run China, actually functions in terms of the Chinese personality and is humanistic, orderly and completes its projects in a timely manner, keeping the good of the people at heart. The ending of poverty in China is hence an important landmark, along with projects such as the One Belt one Road which are termed as China’s humanistic and altruistic outreach. The crackdown on corruption can also be seen in a similar light.

There is also a third characteristic which defines China and that is its sense of nationalism, grounded in the belief that China was once a great power and that it must regain that status. This sense of nationalism dates back to well before the establishment of the PRC, but it was the PRC which has, since 1949, promoted the narrative of the ‘Century of Humiliation,’ which is largely conceived as having begun with the first Opium War in 1839, in which the Royal Navy opened up China to Western capitalism, and ended in 1949, with the PRC coming to power in China. This discourse reiterates the humiliation of the Chinese people, the dismemberment of territory, the loss of sovereignty to foreign powers and domestic weakness and corruption.

This sense of nationalism also drives China’s foreign policy, with the PRC being sensitive to public concerns and taking into account popular nationalist sentiments. As an example, in 2012, when tensions arose over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, the Chinese public boycotted Japanese products, linking the same to patriotism. There is a deep sense of hurt amongst the Chinese people of what happened after the Japanese Imperial Army seized Nanjing on 13 December 1937. For the next six weeks, the conquerors went on a rampage, killing all the Chinese soldiers who survived, which was against the canons of war. But worse, they murdered the civilian population, raped the women and pillaged and burnt the township.[2] This massacre still weighs heavily on the Chinese consciousness. It is the Chinese public which is averse to the continuing Japanese practice of honouring of its WWII martyrs at the Yasukuni Shrine. This public vehemence at times outstrips even the hardliners within the PRC government, serving to push policy further toward hawkishness, with netizens criticising their own country’s policymakers for not being aggressive enough. And if China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is perceived to be undermining Chinese interests, then they too are subjected to ridicule by the public. Two factors indicate this trend. One, China’s MFA receives calcium pills when the public feels their diplomats need to stiffen up their backbone—a popular choice of insult to indicate spinelessness. And two, in the online world, the MFA has garnered the unofficial nickname ‘the Ministry of Protests’ due to its tendency to do little more than issue denouncements of unfavourable international developments. It is this public pressure which has perhaps forced a change within China’s diplomatic community, leading to what we now see as wolf warrior envoys.[3]

With this as a background, let us look into Chinese aggressive policies astride its land borders as well as in the Western Pacific. Since early 1990s, while China was pursuing its economic and military growth agenda, it did not want its growth to be seen as threatening to its neighbours. So, Beijing resorted to the rhetoric of its peaceful rise and was restrained in its foreign policy options. It engaged with regional multilateral organisations such as ASEAN, and with neighbouring states, using trade and investment deals to foster better relations. But as China grew in strength and clout, its foreign policy too has distinctly changed, with Beijing now focussed on aggressively promoting its core interests, getting more assertive with its neighbours and pushing back with greater confidence against the United States. Towards this end, China has not shied away from applying military and other coercive economic and diplomacy leverages to further its interests. That is why we see Beijing intensifying its construction activities on the artificial islands it has constructed in the South China Sea, and despite protests from the US and neighbouring states, continues with the construction of airstrips and other military facilities in these islands. In the economic sphere, China continues to intrude into the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of its neighbours to carry out fishing and oil exploration activities. With respect to Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, and some other ASEAN countries, China is resorting to increased military activity, especially in the East China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits, as also in exerting economic and diplomatic pressure. These changes are reflective of a weakening uni-polar world order taking place concurrently with China’s rise. China now feels it can push back against the U.S.-led international system, to promote a new international order.[4]

It must be remembered here that China’s rise took place in a uni-polar world. While unipolarity creates strong incentives for states to balance the unipole, there is a cost attached to such balancing which makes the challenger tread cautiously. As China grew in strength, it resorted to soft balancing, which is what we see playing out today. While not directly challenging the United States, it is using military and non-military means such as territorial denial and entangling diplomacy to delay, frustrate and undermine US policies. It desists from hard balancing which is reflected by military build up and military alliances, because of the high transaction costs involved. Hard balancing is easier to achieve in a bipolar or multi-polar environment but in a uni-polar environment, hard balancing would be viewed as revisionism and as a dangerous threat to international order. That is why Beijing, rather than confronting the United States directly, has fixed its attention to its own neighbourhood. In East Asia, while Beijing is confronted with the dominant position which the US occupies, because of China’s strengthened economic and military capabilities, and because of the advantage that accrues to it from geography, it has greater confidence to do something about it. No rising power would want military bases and forward-deployed troops of its rivals next to one’s own borders. This is why China, with the growth of its economic and military might, seeks to control its immediate neighbourhood and is pushing back at US dominance. The quest for influence between the US and China in this region will thus continue to increase in intensity as time goes by. The imperative for the US, due to geographical distance from the region, will be to continue to expand its diplomatic, economic and especially military reach in the region. The Quad is but one manifestation of US efforts to keep China in check.

But the real story is that a change is in the offing, though it may be many years distant from the present moment. Essentially, the uni-polar dynamics is weakening, and other dynamics are strengthening, presenting Beijing with a variable set of options in which it can manoeuvre in east Asia. For this, the CPC would rely on the support of its people, in the absence of which its ability to manoeuvre gets restricted. As of now, the Chinese sense of nationalism provides the necessary level of support to the CCP to pursue its agenda.

The Chinese strategy of promoting a narrative of a peaceful and non-threatening rise amongst its neighbours was predicated on US unipolarity. In the circumstances, a low-profile approach was possible. With China’s rise, its resistance to US power has also increased, though it still desists from carrying out hard balancing options. An example of resistance is the defensive measures that have been instituted by China against the most threatening elements of US military power such as China’s Anti Area Access Denial (A2/AD) strategy. This encompasses the creation of artificial islands and militarising the same with airstrips, submarine pens, logistical support for its warships etc, along with adequate Air Defence cover, to push back against US naval and air power. It is a sea denial strategy, to restrict US military options in the Western Pacific, more specifically in the South and East China Sea.[5]

The show by China of its anti-ship ballistic missiles in its military parades is also designed to send a clear message to Washington that China has the capability to sink US aircraft carriers. By augmenting its A2/AD capabilities, China has raised the cost and the risks for the US to operate its aircrafts and ships close to China’s near seas. China is also attempting to shape international developments by increased activities in setting the agenda in multilateral organisations, without directly confronting the US. In a Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), held in Shanghai in 2014, Xi Jinping, in his keynote address, sketched out a new security architecture for Asia.[6] His advocacy for a new Asian based regional security cooperation architecture was obviously a challenge to the US role in regional security and was the first instance since the end of the Cold War that such an iteration had been made by a Chinese leader. In the economic sphere, China has responded to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and to the US led regional free trade agreement, with Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The latter was concluded in 2020, albeit without India. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has to be seen in this light. To maintain its position, the US launched its pivot or rebalance to Asia under the Obama administration and now is invigorating the Quad. But the US strategy has been a bit incoherent, which has resulted in uncertainty in US allies and partners about the extent of US engagement and commitment. This is still playing out.

But internal power dynamics are also playing out in China, which could impact on the single party rule of the CPC. The four Chinese modernisations which have been underway over the last four decades have seen rapid economic development in China which has huge implications for Chinese society and its relationship with the CPC. The economic reforms which were initiated necessitated granting more space to Chinese entrepreneurs, which in turn has created a more diverse and active Chinese society, in which voices have emerged that are not shy of expressing opinions that are critical of developments within and outside China. The spread of communication technology and the increasing use of social media platforms has also produced societal change which could potentially challenge the CPC’s capacity to rule. This has increased the party leaderships proclivity with maintaining domestic control and legitimacy, even to the extent of using increasingly repressive methods to deal with the situation, if so required. At the same time, efforts by the CPC continue apace to seek support from the society to maintain the existing order. The support sought is no longer for ideological legitimacy but for performance, the commitment being to provide the Chinese people with higher standards of living, economic development, peace and stability as part of the social contract. This remains the main claim to legitimacy of the CPC led by Xi Jinping, but as expectations within Chinese society are rising, the leadership will continue to be tested in the years to come.[7]

Chinese societal expectations are not just confined to economic concerns but to nationalists ambitions as well. As China grows, the yearning in society to regain its perceived past glory is all too evident. This growing nationalist sentiment will constrain Chinese foreign policy choices, forcing it on a more belligerent path and reducing room for manoeuvre. This was evident in the 2012 anti-Japanese protests in China that flared up after Japan’s nationalisation of three Senkaku Islands. The Chinese government termed the act as a “gross violation” of Chinese sovereignty over the territory, and hinted at taking military action, but did not go down that path.[8] That may change, with heightened concerns among the CPC to meet people’s demands. We now see nationalism in China projecting to Chinese claims in the surrounding seas, and being linked to the domestic legitimacy of Chinese ruling clique. The CPC will however have to balance out its foreign policy objectives with the consequences such policies may have on the Chinese economy. How the dynamics between the top-down nationalism and the bottom-up nationalism in China plays out remains to be seen, but the present leadership is seen to be less averse to risk-taking and in promoting a more uncompromising nationalism, to advance what are perceived to be China’s legitimate claims. The construct here is based on a Chinese civilisational rejuvenation, drawn from its imagined glorious past, which gives it adequate scope to operate outside the confines of a straitjacketed ideology and also to expand its territorial reach.[9] Such an approach is perforce more aggressive, which explains why Chinese diplomats are taking a stronger position on nationalist issues. We can thus expect to see more volatility on foreign policy issues in the coming years, especially with relation to Chinese claims on Taiwan. It must be noted here that President Xi Jinping is personally invested in the above narrative, to claim his place among the leading figures in the CPC pantheon.[10]

The coming years will thus see greater belligerence from China, with increasing militarisation of both the South and East China Seas. Military confrontation, in all probability will be avoided, with China resorting to non-military methods to attain its territorial objectives and to achieve national rejuvenation. The ASEAN countries will attempt some form of rapprochement with China, on their respective claim lines, but Japan will in all probability dramatically increase its defence spending and seek parity with Chinese naval and air power in the Western Pacific.

For India, we have the advantage of geography in the Indian Ocean Region, but would have to ensure an effective naval presence to guard our interests. The Quad serves India’s security interests though it is not yet a security grouping. On India’s border with Tibet, it is a conflict which India will have to fight alone, should the situation so arise, though help in the form of intelligence and logistic support will in all likelihood come from the US and others. The key factor in any war over the Himalayas will be cyber and space capability and control over the skies over the Tibetan Plateau. So long as India is prepared, China will be reluctant to undertake a military adventure which she may well lose. Internal stability, economic growth, military preparedness and astute diplomacy thus will be the essential components of India’s response to Chinese belligerence.

Author Brief Bio: Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.

 References:

[1] https://www.16personalities.com/country-profiles/china

[2] https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/thoughts-on-the-nanjing-massacre/

[3] https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/chinas-wolf-warrior-envoys-snarl-and-bite-at-the-west/

[4] Camilla TN Sorensen, The Roots of China’s Assertiveness in East Asia: Analysing the Main Driving Forces in Chinese Foreign Policy, available at https://core.ac.uk/download/483390576.pdf

[5] https://www.c3sindia.org/defence-security/how-effective-is-chinas-a2-ad-in-the-south-china-sea-by-commodore-v-venugopal-retd/

[6] https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cenz//eng/ztbd/yxhfh/t1162057.htm

[7] Note 3.

[8] https://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/JapansNationalisationofSenkaku_sakhan_250912

[9] Dr Bikram Lamba, Xi and the Taiwan Question, available at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/xi-taiwan-question-dr-bikram-lamba

[10] Ibid.

India-Australia Trade Pact: Unlocking the Potential

Introduction

As two major liberal democracies in the Indo-Pacific region, India and Australia share common viewpoints on many regional and global matters. Relations between the two countries have undergone transformative evolution in recent years. The bilateral relationship is special and this is characterised by the shared value of a pluralistic, parliamentary democracies, Commonwealth traditions, expanding economic engagement, long-standing people-to-people ties and increasing high-level interaction[i]. Both are members of the Quad, a major grouping consisting of Japan and the US as other two, and engaging at summit levels and at the level of defence and foreign ministers on continuous basis to discuss regional issues. While the political understanding is in place, the potentials to deepen economic ties have not been honed as desired. This lacuna has now been removed with the signing of the India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) in April 2022. While hailing the trade deal and admitting both sides are 50 years late in enhancing ties, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said it is “better late than ever”.[ii]

Goyal was on a three-day visit to Australia to ink the trade pact. While addressing a key event at Melbourne University, Goyal said the pact gives both countries an opportunity to get back the “brotherhood, fraternity and togetherness that was rightly due”. The signing of the trade pact opens up opportunity for other agreements in education, particularly on the healthcare sector. Greater cooperation in the healthcare sector has been realised after the remarkable service rendered by doctor, nurses, paramedical workers for saving peoples’ lives during the Covid-19 pandemic. Goyal held wide-ranging discussions with his Australian counterpart Dan Tehan in the outgoing Scott Morrison government on carrying forward the ECTA. One does not see any change in Australia’s commitment to deepen ties with India by the new Labor government headed by Anthony Albanese.

ECTA is the first trade agreement of India with a developed country after more than a decade and provides for an institutional mechanism to improve trade between the two countries. In February 2022, India signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the UAE and is currently working on FTAs with Israel, Canada, UK and the EU. Australia is also the third OECD country after Japan and Korea with which India has signed an FTA. This agreement has strategic significance too, as both India and Australia are part of the Quad and partners in the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI)[iii]. India negotiated some important trade pacts in the past that involved large economies such as those of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), Japan, Korea, Singapore and Malaysia. Indian Industry, however, did not show the kind of enthusiasm it is expressing for recent trade deals, first with the UAE and now with Australia. One of the major factors behind this new FTA confidence and support shown by Indian Industry is that the government has identified the right set of countries for such trade and aggressively ensured meaningful market access for Indian exports.[iv]

Goyal too held talks with Tony Abbott, then Australian PM Morrison’s Special Trade Envoy. Australia is the 17th largest trading partner of India and India is Australia’s 9th largest trading partner. The trade pact shall pave the way to deepen economic ties, increase bilateral trade and investment, besides forging unity among Quad members. The agreement would help in taking bilateral trade from USD 27.5 billion at present to USD 45-50 billion in the next five years. India’s goods exports were worth USD 6.9 billion and imports aggregated to USD 15.1 billion in 2021[v]. This trade imbalance could be because of the composition of trade, which is tilted in Australia’s favour. The new trade pact is expected to address this trade imbalance issue. Goyal is optimistic that both countries should aim for USD 100 billion bilateral trade volume by 2030.[vi]

On 2 April, India and Australia signed the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (IndAus ECTA) under which both the countries are providing duty-free access to a huge number of goods and relaxing norms to promote trade in services. Besides agreement on dual degrees in the education sector, scope for cooperation in promoting service trade also look promising. Research, start-ups and agri-tech are other areas for potential cooperation. Australian companies can look at India as the fast-growing economy to invest in the infrastructure sector. Australia has a huge investible surplus and investment in projects in India can fetch fair return to Australia. Strengthening air and shipping connectivity with focus on expanding direct shipping lines between India and Australia can be a win-win situation for both sides. As Goyal’s then counterpart Dan Tehan described, the trade pact is a “unity agreement” and a comprehensive one. Council for Leather Exports (CLE) Vice Chairman Rajendra Kumar Jalan said that leather is a part of the agreement and the pact would promote its trade with Australia.

Another highlight of the trade pact is that it will give about 85 per cent of Australia’s exports zero-duty access to the Indian market, including coal, sheep meat and wool, and lower duty access on Australian wines, almonds, lentils, and certain fruits[vii]. Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the trade pact as a “watershed moment” and “one of the biggest economic doors”.[viii] India needs to be watchful if the trade imbalance is not further widened unless reciprocal facilities are utilised properly. The trade pact is set to provide zero-duty access to 96 per cent of India’s exports to Australia including shipments from key sectors such as engineering goods, gems and jewellery, textiles, apparels and leather. Zero-duty access for Indian goods is set to be expanded to 100 per cent over five years under the agreement. According to a government estimate, the pact shall also generate over one million jobs in India.[ix]

The future in the education sector also looks promising. The agreement shall facilitate student exchange, professionals and tourists, deepening bilateral ties. Under the agreement, Indian graduates from STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) will be granted extended post-study work visas. Australia will also set up a programme to grant visas to young Indians looking to pursue working holidays in Australia[x]. The agreement shall come into force after it is ratified by the Australian Parliament.

Currently, a number of Indian exports face a tariff disadvantage of 4-5% in many labour-intensive sectors relative to competitors — those with FTAs with Australia — such as China, Thailand, Vietnam. Removing this barrier could enhance merchandise exports significantly. Under the pact, Indian goods and services exports to Australia are expected to reach USD 20 billion in FY2027 and USD 35 billion in FY2035, up from about USD 10.5 billion in 2021. Australian wine imports, almonds, lentils, oranges, mandarins, pears, apricots and strawberries are set to benefit from lower tariffs under the agreement. India has, however, excluded a number of Australian products from tariff reductions under the agreement to protect “sensitive sectors” including dairy products, wheat, rice, chickpeas, beef, sugar, apples, toys and iron ore.

While negotiating the trade pact, Indian side took into consideration and kept the interests of the Indian industry where it has certain sensitivities. Many sensitive products were kept in the exclusion category (29.8 per cent of tariff lines). These included milk and dairy, walnut, pistachio nuts, bajra, apple, sunflower seed oil, oil cake, gold, silver, platinum, and many medical devices. This is a major gain for India under the ECTA. India also managed to get commercially meaningful offers from Australia in several sectors. This included 1,800 Indian traditional chefs and yoga teachers entering Australia as contractual service suppliers, post-study visas for Indian students, the pursuit of a mutual recognition agreement on professional qualifications, and an enhanced commitment on the movement of professionals as intra-corporate transferees. These are some of the key gains for Indian service sectors.

Australia is a major exporter of key resources, some of which India needs to import to sustain its economic growth. For example, coal accounts for 74 per cent of Australia’s exports to India and accounts a duty of 2.5 per cent. The elimination of duties on coking coal is expected to boost the competitiveness of Indian steel exports. Zero-duty access for Australia is set to increase to cover 91 per cent of its exports by value and over 70 per cent of India’s tariff lines over 10 years. Other key Australian products which will see tariffs eliminated when the agreement comes into force include LNG, wool, sheep meat, alumina and metallic ores while tariffs on avocados, onions, pistachios, macadamias, cashews in-shell, blueberries, raspberries and blackberries are set to be eliminated over seven years. Procuring lower cost raw materials such as alumina from Australia is in India’s interest as it will boost the international competitiveness of Indian manufacturers[xi].

One factor that led to an early push for Australia to clinch the trade deal after over a decade of negotiations stemmed from its worsening trade ties with China. Both the countries began talks on the trade deal back in 2011, but discussions were bogged down and suspended in September 2015 after nine rounds of negotiations, pending the outcome of other multilateral negotiations. The spark was provided and it was reignited when Australia-China trade ties strained over tariff issue. Australia’s demand for a WHO inquiry to the origin of the virus worsened relations. The government of Scott Morrison in Australia sought to diversify exports markets and reduce Australia’s dependence on its biggest trading partner China, after diplomatic spats led to Beijing sanctioning certain Australian products.[xii] As Australia wanted to reduce its dependence on China, diversifying export markets facilitated early conclusion of the trade pact with India. As natural partners, the relations between India and Australia rest on the pillars of trust and reliability. The negotiations, therefore, for the ECTA were formally re-launched on 30 September 2021 and concluded on a fast-track basis by the end of March 2022.

The trade pact follows the decision of both countries to upgrade their relationship to a Comprehensive Partnership in the middle of 2021. It cannot be missed that the economic agreement has a strategic angle attached to it.[xiii] There is a new dimension to India’s FTA negotiations with foreign countries. Earlier, India negotiated with potential trade partners mainly for market access for business professionals under Mode 4 (Movement of Natural Persons), but now the emphasis shifted to market access to all of India’s merchandise exports.

Before the trade pact was signed with Australia, Indian exports faced a tariff disadvantage of 4-5 per cent in many labour-intensive sectors vis-a-vis competitors in the Australian market such as China, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Malaysia. Removing these barriers under the ECTA shall enhance India’s merchandise exports significantly. Once the pact is ratified by the Australian Parliament and come into force, all the major traditional Indian exports, such as textiles and apparel, select agriculture and marine products, leather, footwear, furniture, gems and jewellery, pharma and engineering products, etc, stand to gain immensely. Since the composition of export items from Australia is heavily concentrated in raw materials and intermediate products, many industries in India will get cheaper raw material and thus become more competitive, particularly in sectors like steel, aluminium, power, engineering and so on. This also could address to the issue of correcting trade imbalance, which is now in Australia’s favour.

IUM

One of the breakthroughs achieved under the ECTA is that the Australian government agreed to amend its domestic tax law to stop taxation of the offshore income of Indian firms providing technical services to Australia. This was a long-pending demand of the Indian IT industry. Once the amendment is made, the Indian tech companies would no longer be required to pay taxes on offshore revenues in Australia, which would enhance their competitiveness in the international market. It may be noted that though India successfully negotiated an excellent trade deal for businesses, one cannot brush under the carpet the fact that Australia has currently 16 FTAs under operation, and therefore accessing the Australian market would not be a cakewalk.[xiv] The onus lies on India to improve its competitiveness, as in most trade sectors, India would be competing with the likes of China, ASEAN, Chile, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. These countries have already-functional FTAs with Australia and therefore can pose serious competition for India.[xv]

What makes the trade pact significant that India is the world’s largest democracy and is a market for 1.3 billion people? Its youthful population, diversified economy and growth trajectory present significant opportunity for Australian business, including in education, agriculture, energy, resources, tourism, healthcare, financial services, infrastructure, science and innovation, and sport.[xvi] Indeed the trade deal is historic in India-Australia relations and would open up new vista in many more fronts.

The joint media report with Morrison released on 2 April 2022 said that Australian households and businesses will benefit, with 96 per cent of Indian goods imports entering Australia duty-free once the agreement enters into force. This covers many products which currently attract 4-5 per cent customs duty in Australia. Labour-intensive sectors which would gain immensely include textiles and apparel, few agricultural and fish products, leather, footwear, furniture, sports goods, jewellery, machinery, electrical goods and railway wagons.[xvii]

One can see further activism from the Indian side as following the signing of the trade pact, Coal and Mines Minister Prahlad Joshi visited Australia in early July 2022 to build upon an MoU signed between Khanij Bidesh India (KA Bill), a joint venture of three central public sector entities under the mines ministry and Critical Minerals Facilitation Office (CMFO) of Australia. The MoU envisages USD 6 million as initial funding to be shared equally by both countries towards a shared ambition to develop secure, robust and commercially viable critical minerals supply chains[xviii]. Joshi visited mineral-rich sites of Tianqi Lithium Kwinana and Green bushes mines and held talks with key ministers in the Australian government. Bilateral cooperation between India and Australia in this critical sector shall help in India’s transition towards clean energy ambitions. The steps will complement India’s mineral security for e-mobility initiatives and other diversified sectors entailing usage of critical and strategic minerals.  Indeed, India is among the fastest growing economies in the world and there is huge scope for collaboration in the mineral sector. Technology transfer, knowledge-sharing and investment in critical minerals like lithium and cobalt are strategic to achieving clean energy ambitions.[xix] Australia is in possession of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and vanadium, all critical for the manufacturing of critical electronic components.

The commitment of Australia’s minister for resources Madeleine King of A$8 million to the three-year bilateral Critical Minerals Investment Partnership with the aim to lowering emissions and boosting the use of renewable energy was another highlight.[xx]

Australia has noted the potentials of India’s growth projections, with GDP at 9 per cent in 2021-22 and 2022-23, and 7.1 per cent in 2023-24. Australian government’s goal is to lift India to its top three export markets by 2035, and to make India the third largest destination in Asia for outward Australian investment. Australia is confident that the agreement would create enormous trade diversification opportunities for Australian producers and service providers bound for India, valued at up to USD 14.8 billion each year.[xxi] By unlocking the huge market of around 1.3 billion consumers in India, Australia hopes to strengthen the economy, and create jobs.

To list the benefits of ECTA, the following are worth-noting[xxii].

  • Sheep meat tariffs of 30 per cent will be eliminated on entry into force, providing a boost for Australian exports that already command nearly 20 per cent of India’s market
  • Wool will have the current 2.5 per cent tariffs eliminated on entry into force, supporting Australia’s second-largest market for wool products.
  • Tariffs on wine with a minimum import price of USD 5 per bottle will be reduced from 150 per cent to 100 per cent on entry into force and subsequently to 50 per cent over 10 years (based on Indian wholesale price index for wine).
  • Tariffs on wine bottles with minimum import price of USD 15 will be reduced from 150 per cent to 75 per cent on entry into force and subsequently to 25 per cent over 10 years (based on Indian wholesale price index for wine).
  • Tariffs up to 30 per cent on avocados, onions, broad, kidney and adzuki beans, cherries, shelled pistachios, macadamias, cashews in-shell, blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, currants will be eliminated over seven years.
  • Tariffs on almonds, lentils, oranges, mandarins, pears, apricots and strawberries will be reduced, improving opportunities for Australia’s horticulture industry to supply India’s growing food demand.
  • The resources sector will benefit from the elimination of tariffs on entry into force for coal, alumina, metallic ores, including manganese, copper and nickel; and critical minerals including titanium and zirconium.
  • LNG tariffs will be bound at 0 per cent at entry into force.
  • Tariffs on pharmaceutical products and certain medical devices will be eliminated over five and seven years.[xxiii]

The outgoing Morrison Government unveiled plans to invest USD 280 million to further the growing economic ties and support jobs and businesses in both countries. These include:[xxiv]

  • USD 7 million to support cooperation on research, production and commercialisation of clean technologies, critical minerals and energy;
  • USD 25.2 million to deepen space cooperation with India and
  • USD 28.1 million to launch a Centre for Australia-India Relations.

Though the trade pact was cheered by wine exporters and sheep farmers, dairy and grain farmers were a bit disappointed. While wine exporters in Australia can recover from their loss over China with export opportunities to India, the same cannot be said for other sectors. The significant reduction of tariffs shall help Australian wine exporters and sheep farmers. Dairy and grain industries expected a better deal and feel the agreement is a major lost opportunity for market expansion.[xxv] Since the trade war began with China, Australia’s wine industry was looking to find new markets. The trade deal with India came in perfect time to rescue the industry.

When the trade war broke out with China in 2020, China announced to impose tariff up to 200 per cent on all Australian wine. Though the new deal with India shall not help the wine industry recover all losses, it is seen as a vital step towards addressing the national oversupply of wine. The Chinese wine market for Australia was USD 1.2 billion when it was closed in 2020. Though the new frontier in India could help to recover to some extent, the entire loss from the Chinese market cannot be recovered. It is encouraging that imports of Australian wines to India increased by 71 per cent by volume and 81 per cent by value in 2021, the base was small. Besides India, Australian wine industry is also looking to expand into Southeast Asia and Scandinavia. Its established markets are the US, Canada and Britain.

As regards wool, the trade deal shall remove the five per cent tariff on exports to India to zero. Already being the second biggest export market for the product, it will be a win-win situation for both countries. Though India’s consumption of wool is small compared with China, this shall pave the way for larger exports in quantity as the buying power of the Indian consumers has increased considerably. Before the trade pact, India provided a limited market for Australian lamb and mutton products as the tariff imposed was 20 per cent. After the pact, Australian exporters of these products shall benefit as tariffs have been removed as imports by India are likely to rise every year.

As mentioned, dairy farmers were disappointed as the sector was completely excluded in the FTA. Probably Goyal factored during negotiations that including this sector would have been a threat to India’s domestic industry and thus would have affected India’s social fabric. With a large population and majority in the agriculture sector, India has the largest dairy industry in the world and the interests of farmers mostly with two to four cows had to be protected in any trade negotiations with a foreign country. Australia still pins hope for bringing this sector on board in future negotiations.

Like the dairy sectors, the grain growers in Australia are too disappointed as they miss out on the Indian market from exporting premium Australian chickpeas. The interim FTA offers some potential benefits for Australian lentils exporters who hope to see over time benefits for faba beans, canola oil and soyabean, the grain sector expected more access to the Indian market. The grain growers see the pact as a “huge missed opportunity for the chickpea market”.

Long-term Benefit for India 

Though the trade pact is expected to come into force by August 2022 or so, India is likely to leverage the pact with Australia and earlier with the UAE to ensure long-term economical energy security. Global supply chain disruption is one of the major causes of concerns for import-dependent nations. The Russia-Ukraine crisis further exacerbated the situation. The oil price volatility forced state-run oil companies to raise patrol and diesel prices frequently. India, which is the world’s third largest consumer of fossil fuels, imports 85 per cent of its crude oil requirement and 54 per cent of its natural gas. India’s coal imports from Australia are increasing and already emerged as the main source of imports of India’s total coal requirements. The new trade pact would further boost energy imports from Australia which has an edge over LNG and liquefied petroleum gas for cooking and automobiles.[xxvi]

The trade pact with Australia also signals that India’s trade policy is moving into higher gear. This also removes tariff disadvantages India suffered in merchandise exports of labour-intensive goods vis-a-vis China and ASEAN countries because of RCEP. Leaning towards import substitution will blunt India’s export competitiveness over time. It denies India cheaper components that reduce product manufacturing costs. Also, the strategic implications of the trade pact cannot be overlooked because as bilateral trade and mutual trust grow, it will be easier for both sides to get on the same page in countering China’s dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. The onus lies on both sides that the momentum is maintained to reap the benefits for a win-wins situation.

Conclusion

Backing the trade pact, former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott who played a critical role in the trade agreement observed that if China can weaponise trade, it becomes compelling for Australia that it invests on India and target bilateral trade to reach USD 100 billion by 2035.[xxvii] While Australia-China relationship was built on people-to-people ties which took the bilateral trade to USD 75 billion, India and Australia were always cultural partners. The trade pact shall unlock huge opportunities for Indian exports of automobiles, textiles, footwear and leather products, gems and jewellery, toys and plastic products.

It is also argued that as two liberal democracies coming together with this pact and being part of the Quad, and further complimented by joint naval exercises, both can fight an “assertive and autocratic government” in the Indo-Pacific region and strengthen supply chain, especially around critical minerals. In a clear reference to an assertive China, it was remarked that if an autocratic government that is seeking to change the rules of the game, then the India-Australia trade pact shall help both to fight to keep the rules-based order in place and make sure all countries in the Indo-Pacific can continue to flourish.

Author Brief Bio: Professor Rajaram Panda is currently Senior Fellow at the Nehru Memorial Museum and Library, New Delhi. As a leading expert on the Indo-Pacific region with micro focus on the Northeast and Southeast Asia, Prof. Panda was also Senior Fellow at the IDSA, Lok Sabha Research Fellow and ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan.     

 References

[i] https://pib.gov.in/pressreleasepage.aspx?prid=1812730

[ii] https://www.freepressjournal.in/india/better-late-than-never-in-australia-piyush-goyal-hails-bilateral-trade-deal

[iii]https://clashofnews.com/CategoryMainPage/opinion/Indias_trade_pact_with_Australia_will_click_It_ticks_the_right_boxes.html

[iv]  Chandr Ajit Bannerji, “India’s trade pact with Australia will click: It ticks the right boxes”, 4 April 2022,

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/indias-trade-pact-with-australia-will-click-it-ticks-the-right-boxes-11649014512186.html

[v] https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/new-australian-govt-supports-trade-pact-with-india-goyal-2/

[vi]“India, Australia Should Look At $100 Billion Bilateral Trade By 2030, Says Piyush Goyal”, 6 April 2022,

https://www.outlookindia.com/business/india-australia-should-look-at-100-billion-bilateral-trade-by-2030-says-piyush-goyal-news-190279

vii] https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/india-australia-sign-fta-trade-likely-to-double-in-5-yrs-generate-1-mn-jobs/ar-AAVN1Zx

[viii] “Oz trade deal ‘watershed moment’: PM”, Times of India, 3 April 2022, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/australia-trade-deal-watershed-moment-pm/articleshow/90616760.cms

[ix] Karunjit Singh, “India, Australia sign FTA, trade likely to ‘double in 5 yrs, generate 1 mn jobs’”, Indian Express, 3 April 2022,  https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-australia-ink-economic-cooperation-and-trade-pact-to-boost-ties-7849230/

[x] https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/india-australia-sign-fta-trade-likely-to-double-in-5-yrs-generate-1-mn-jobs/ar-AAVN1Zx

[xi] https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/india-australia-sign-fta-trade-likely-to-double-in-5-yrs-generate-1-mn-jobs/ar-AAVN1Zx

[xii] “Australia-India trade deal to open ‘biggest economic door’: Morrison”, Indian Express, 2 April 2022,

https://indianexpress.com/article/world/australia-india-trade-deal-to-open-biggest-economic-door-morrison-7849091/

[xiii]“’Historic’ trade agreement with India signed after decade of negotiations”, 2 April 2022,  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-02/india-australia-trade-deal-signed/100961618

[xiv] ChandrAjit Banerjee, “India’s trade pact with Australia will click: It ticks the right boxes”, 4 April 2022,

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/indias-trade-pact-with-australia-will-click-it-ticks-the-right-boxes-11649014512186.html

[xv] “Signing of the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) between India and Australia”, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, 2 April 2022,

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1812730

[xvi] “Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (AI-CECA)”, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Government of Australia,

https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/negotiations/aifta/australia-india-comprehensive-economic-cooperation-agreement

[xvii] https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-australia-ink-economic-cooperation-and-trade-pact-to-boost-ties-11648877714291.html

[xviii] https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1838947

[xix] “India, Oz bring critical minerals into strategic ties”, Times of India, 4 July 2022, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-oz-bring-critical-minerals-into-strategic-ties/articleshow/92642824.cms

[xx] “India, Oz to boost cooperation in rare minerals projects, supply”, 5 July 2022, https://www.htsyndication.com/hindustan-times/article/india%2C-oz-to-boost-cooperation-in-rare-minerals-projects%2C-supply/62379083

[xxi] “Historic Trade deal with India”, Ministry of Trade, Tourism and Investment, 2 April 2022, https://www.trademinister.gov.au/minister/dan-tehan/media-release/historic-trade-deal-india

[xxii] http://www.16news2.com.au/index.php/2022/04/03/historic-trade-deal-with-india/

[xxiii] Ibid.

[xxiv] Ibid.

[xxv] Jane McNughton, “Australia-India Free Trade Agreement cheered by wine exporters and sheep farmers, but dairy and grain miss out”, 4 April 2022, https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2022-04-04/australia-india-free-trade-agreement-winners-and-losers/100963986

[xxvi] Rajeev Jayaswal, “India may leverage FTAs for long-term supply of energy”, Hindustan Times, 4 April 2022, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-may-leverage-ftas-for-long-term-supply-of-energy-101649008398413.html .

[xxvii] Pavitra Kanagaraj, “The numbers behind India and Australia’s $100-billion trade target”, Hindustan Times, 11 April 2022, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/the-numbers-behind-india-and-australia-s-100-billion-trade-target-101649634267907.html.

Agnipath: Transforming the Armed Forces

The ongoing war in Ukraine has thrown up a humungous list of lessons for militaries across the world. Undoubtedly, these will be studied, analysed and debated in the coming years to determine how future militaries should be structured, trained and equipped. While various facets of the Ukraine war were being discussed in military and think tank circles in India, the Armed Forces announced the roll out of Agnipath—a new policy document wherein both the procedure for enrolment of personnel in the Armed Forces as well as the terms and conditions of such service stand radically altered. In its breadth and scope, the policy is both transformational and revolutionary. That is why a furious debate is raging in the country on the pros and cons of such a policy. This is not an alarming development, but a natural reaction to a change in the status quo.

No reform can be painless. The nation has to bite the bullet and implement such reforms, if the long-term impact is beneficial. In the economic sphere, the implementation of GST went through a difficult birth, but now the nation is reaping the benefits which will only grow in the years to come. The abrogation of the special status given to J&K by both houses of Parliament on 5 August 2019 was another revolutionary reform in the political sphere, which is still playing out but the dividends of which are clearly visible in the political, social, economic and security domains in the newly formed Union Territory of J&K. Agnipath too, can be a huge game changer, but certain modifications may be required along the way. Fortunately, in the implementational phase, the policy will have very little impact on the Forces in the first four years after it is rolled out. So, enough time is available to look into course corrections to make this transformational and revolutionary concept beneficial to the Armed Forces, to the soldier and to the nation.

The scheme departs radically from past enrolment practises, as from now on, enrolment for the Armed Forces will only be through the Pan-India, merit based Agnipath scheme. Eligibility for enrolment is open to all Indian citizens in the age group of 17.5 to 21 years. A one-time age waiver has been given for the current year wherein individuals up to the age of 23 years can apply, as no enrolment has taken place in the last two years due to the pandemic. Selected individuals, called Agniveers, will be required to serve for four years, which includes a six-month training period. Thereafter, 25 percent will be retained in the military for permanent absorption, while the remaining 75 percent will be given a financial package which will assist them in either finding other means of employment or in becoming small scale entrepreneurs themselves. Through this, a vast pool of disciplined work force will be available to the nation. The Agniveers will be entitled to all the allowances of regular troops, to include risk and hardship allowance and death and disability pension. 30 percent of their monthly emoluments will go towards a lump sum gratuity that will be paid to them on completion of their contractual service. The government will contribute an equal portion, the net lump sum gratuity coming to Rs 11.7 lakh. This, combined with the individuals savings over four years, could be in the range of Rs 18- 22 lakh—an amount which is not unsubstantial for a 22-23 year old youth. The Commanding Officers will have a major role to play in the selection of Agniveers for retention in the military.

The Challenges

Fears have been expressed on the motivational levels of youth who have but a four-year tenure of service. There are also concerns about their standards of training. The war in Ukraine has shown limitations in the performance of Russian troops who, for the most part were conscripts with short service tenures. The Ukrainian military too, suffered from such infirmities. In the Indian context, individual training for Agniveers who are enrolled in the Armoured Corps, Mechanised Infantry, Artillery, Engineers, Signals and EME poses huge challenges which will need to be overcome. But the larger training challenge is group cohesion and functioning as part of a well-oiled sub unit. This is particularly applicable to the combat arms and combat support arms.

The Armed Forces are cognisant of these concerns and will look into measures to address them over the next few years. But more serious is the skewed impact on the age and service profile of soldiers over a 20-year period when the policy has totally matured. In this scenario, we are likely to have up to 60 percent of a unit in the below four-year service bracket and only 40 percent in the bracket of 4-20 years’ service. This will throw up serious operational challenges to the combat arms.

The yearly burgeoning pension bill of defence pensioners has been one of the major reasons necessitating reforms in the military. A soldier, unlike his civilian counterpart, retires at an early age. This is necessary to keep a youthful profile of the Armed Forces. Over the years, this has led to the number of veterans exceeding the number of serving personnel, the ratio presently being in the region of 1:1.8 or thereabout. This will keep increasing over the years and may eventually be to the order of 1:2.5. Obviously, this will impact on force modernisation as a major chunk of defence expenditure gets consumed in revenue expenditure, leaving that much less for capital acquisitions.

A Road Map for the Future

Can something be done to allay the concerns which have been expressed and at the same time, continue with the reform process? Certain actions have already been initiated, but the forces need to look outside the ambit of the personnel in uniform and integrate the reform process with a much wider set of reforms which would encompass the entire security architecture of the country. Three issues need consideration. One, the entire civilian work force needs to be included in the ambit of defence reforms. Two, the governance structure in the Ministry of Defence needs to be revamped and three, the security forces working under the ambit of the Ministry of Home Affairs needs to be co-opted into the military reform process. Let us look at the third aspect first.

The Sixth Central Pay Commission, in its recommendations made a strong pitch for the lateral movement of Defence Forces personnel into the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF). The Commission was of the view that while a good compensation package is essential for the morale and quality of officers and men in the Defence Forces, the same will also, to a large extent, depend on those personnel being provided a life time career. The recommendations were not implemented, largely due to resistance by the CAPF in taking in personnel with different service profiles and seniority, which would impact the seniority and functioning of their existing cadre. These concerns cannot be easily brushed away, but a ready solution exists in the form of absorption of Agniveers.

Presently, a large number of personnel are recruited in the CAPFs who have to be trained before they can be employed in various security agencies of the Ministry of Home Affairs such as the BSF, CRPF and the ITBP. In addition, we have the paramilitary forces under the ministry—the Assam Rifles and the Coast Guard. What needs to be done is to make entry into these forces only through Agniveers. The twin problems of locating suitable trained manpower for induction into these forces and providing sufficiently long tenure for the Defence Forces personnel can be addressed in one stroke. The earlier hesitations which were expressed by the CAPF in taking in retired personnel from the defence forces into their organisations will no longer apply. These organisations will now get well trained and well-disciplined personnel, who are not only proficient in the use of weapons but also skilled in sub-unit level functioning which is required by these forces in combatting militancy, terrorism or other tasks. And these personnel are, on an average, just 23 years old. The CAPF also get substantial financial savings as they now do not now have to budget for recruitment and training expenses. The Agniveers joining the CAPF get a life time career while the Armed Forces, get a more youthful profile. Such lateral absorption can take in about 30 percent Agniveers each year, which would be the average replacement requirement of the CAPFs retiring personnel.

In the Agnipath scheme, the civilian work force which numbers about 3.75 lakh personnel has been left out. This is the real tail of the military which needs serious reforms. A large part of this workforce is employed in the nine Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSU) and the 41 Ordnance factories which have now been reconstituted into seven fully government-owned corporate entities on the lines of DPSUs. Force effectiveness depends to some extent on the capability and ability of these production agencies in delivering cost effective quality products to the Armed Forces in a time bound manner. The entire civilian workforce should, therefore, have been assessed in a performance audit as they are paid out of defence estimates and also consume about a quarter of the pension budget. While the issue of privatising most of these entities will have to confront political hurdles, the same would have to be done at some stage. In any event, the step taken by the government in dissolving the Ordnance Factory Board and merging the 41 Ordnance Factories into seven corporate entities, was, by itself, a major first step. If privatisation cannot be immediately done, then at least these entities should function under the Ministry of Commerce and Industries and not under the Ministry of Defence, where they have a captive market. This reform, if done, will ignite competition and make them more accountable to the user. A performance audit of the DRDO would also be beneficial in determining whether the country is getting its money’s worth in investing huge sums in this organisation. In terms of manpower, it is evidently overstaffed as compared to similar organisations in the West. This needs to be looked into and the flab cut. Perhaps the model to be emulated could be a mix of India’s ISRO and the US DARPA, to see that the nations limited resources are used in the most efficient manner.

We also need to look into the functioning of the Ministry of Defence itself, which has a very large civilian workforce. Agnipath is sought to be justified on the model of the militaries of the US, Israel and other Western democracies. In all these countries, there is no bureaucratic interface between the political authority and the military. Perhaps India should follow suit, as is the norm in all the countries of the world. This by itself, will save the exchequer a few thousand crore INR every year. The Railways has no bureaucratic interface and the military should follow suit.

Finally, a little tweaking of the Agnipath scheme will ensure its acceptability to all those who are currently opposing it. One, as mentioned earlier, recruitment to the CAPF should be only through Agniveers who have completed four years’ service.  Roughly, they would be able to take in about 30 percent of Agniveers each year. These individuals could be selected on a random basis to ensure that the CAPF get a fair mix. Two, for the Military, increase the service limit to six years and retain 40 percent. That would give a more balanced service profile, which eliminates infirmities which are envisaged with a shorter service tenure. Thirdly, only 30 percent of the Agniveers will now be required to be released to the environment. This is a smaller number to deal with. Some of these personnel would be desirous of leaving the military after completing their time. The others could be helped to settle down, where needed.

Conclusion

Agnipath has received a mixed response from the military community. There have been a few bouquets and a lot of brickbats but the underlying fact remains is that it is reform which is needed. The implementation details are the only issues which need to be ironed out. We can get into a win-win situation by making the system more holistic and by following a whole of nation approach, rather than just confining the policy to the uniformed fraternity of the Armed Forces.

Author Brief Bio: Major General Dhruv C Katoch is Director, India Foundation and Editor, India Foundation Journal.

The War in Ukraine: Impact on the EU and on India-EU relations

A dangerous great game is being played out in Ukraine. It has created new fault lines in the existing world order. Unilateral sanctions imposed by the US against Russia has severely impacted global economic recovery after the pandemic, raised oil and gas prices, created domestic inflationary pressures due to external factors and a looming food crisis. All these developments come in the background of a pandemic which is yet to become endemic and new health scares including a monkey pox breakout in several countries.

The meltdown in Ukraine was in the making since 2014. Emboldened by NATO membership for the Baltic States at a time when Putin was not in power, President Biden, under attack from the Republicans for the debacle in Afghanistan and facing a difficult election in the Senate by November, saw in Ukraine’s candidature for NATO membership, an excellent election gambit for domestic purposes[i].

A Cold War warrior, President Biden ignored repeated Russian protests that this was a red line that could not be ignored. Russia would not accept NATO’s nuclear weapons on Ukraine’s border with Russia. Foreign office pundits, ignorant of European history, overlooked that large parts of Ukraine have been Russian for centuries. Ukrainians come from the same soil and are fellow Slavs. Their religion is Orthodox and from the 18th century, fought invaders together with Russians. For the Russians, Ukraine was and will remain part of their history, culture and civilisation.

Buoyed by promises of support, President Zelensky was in no mood to back down. Ukraine was already in a partnership arrangement with NATO through the ‘NATO Enhanced Opportunity Partnership’. Zelensky mistakenly calculated that NATO would provide military support in the unlikely event of a Russian incursion. Indeed, he repeatedly asserted that a Russian attack was neither imminent nor forthcoming.

It is really creditable that the outmatched Ukrainian forces showed great courage and did not back down. Kiev did not fall like Kabul. Zelenksky did not abandon his people despite early American offers to airlift him. Unfortunately, not losing did not translate into a victory for Ukraine. It came with huge destruction of Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure and massive displacement of her population. Russia now holds significantly more territory in Ukraine than before 24th February 2022. Not losing is looking uncomfortably a lot more like losing rather than winning. There is also the economic impact of the war on Ukraine which is facing collapse of its GDP by 45 to 50%.

From India’s perspective, the inexorable loss of Ukraine’s sovereignty in its Eastern flank, accompanied by a fatal weakening of Russia’s economic and military might, raised the prospect of a severely weakened Russia, hitherto India’s main arms supplier, becoming a junior partner of an aggressive and emboldened China. This is an alarming scenario given China’s implacable hostility to India’s rise. It has increased pressure on India to distance itself from Russia, ignoring her core national interests.

The Ukraine crisis has shifted attention of the West away from China and the threat China poses to the existing world order. These concerns have now been addressed to a certain extent by the USA as articulated by Lloyd Austin, US Defence Secretary at the latest Shangri-La Dialogue from 10th to 12th June 22 in Singapore. From informing the gathering that China was “becoming more coercive and aggressive” to publicly warning India of China’s strengthening of its military infrastructure across the LAC, Austin was conveying a clear warning that the US regards the Indo-Pacific as the heart of America’s grand strategy. This was necessary to reassure a nervous EU that US will not leave an increasingly divided EU to sort out the end game in Ukraine.[ii]

The next NATO Summit in Madrid on 29th to 30th June 22 would possibly carry the same reassurance to a Continent increasingly facing the pressure of reduced oil and gas supplies from Russia along with the growing conviction that the war in Ukraine cannot be won. India’s foreign policy and options had to address the puzzling ambivalence of the EU towards Russia including its place in Europe, its history and geography as a dominant European State and the necessity therefore to accommodate Russia within a broader European economic and security framework. Without a pragmatic mid-course correction, EU’s present policy of encouraging Ukraine to fight back and not accept peace negotiations risks escalating the war into a broader conflict. Finland and Sweden wish to join NATO, while Ukraine along with Moldova has just acquired ‘candidate status’ to join EU at a future date. Russia which started the conflict because of Zelensky’s shrill calls to join NATO (a prospect which it turned out was not acceptable to NATO itself) now feels further encircled.

Where is India situated? The decline of ‘Pax Americana’ and the precipitous and disastrous retreat from Kabul on 15th August 2021, leaving ordinary Afghans who had welcomed the Western forces to their fate, was a rude reminder to India, a key strategic partner of the US and EU, that she stood alone in any military confrontation with China. At the same time, India’s security interests are firmly anchored with the West, with the US, the EU and QUAD. But the unilateral Western sanctions and the astronomical rise in oil and gas prices have forced India to purchase discounted Russian oil even it is a fraction of what EU purchases from Russia. India’s dependence on Russian arms and spare parts from Ukraine places her on the horns of a dilemma.

When the conflict commenced, India had to repeatedly clarify her principled position through detailed explanations of vote in the UN and through public statements. Prime Minister Narendra Modi repeatedly appealed for an immediate ceasefire and cessation of hostilities. Later, India welcomed the Secretary-General’s engagement with the Russian and Ukraine leadership and the humanitarian reprieve secured.

As India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar noted, India remains on the side of peace and diplomacy and is guided by her national interests. We have underlined that there is no winning side and a return to dialogue and diplomacy was the only way forward. We have in our statements at the UN highlighted: “It is in our collective interest to work constructively, both inside the United Nations and outside, towards seeking an early resolution to this conflict.” India added: “the global order is anchored in international law, UN Charter and respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty of states”.[iii]

One can also note a gradual evolution of India’s position. India has called for restraint, with immediate de-escalation of tensions, taking into account the legitimate security interests of all countries. The aim is to secure long-term peace and stability in the region and beyond, through constructive and interactive diplomacy.

The US and EU initially questioned India’s publicly stated position on the conflict, demanding that India condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a violation of the UN Charter. Both now appreciate that India can distance herself from Russia only if we have an alternative and robust defence partnership with them. The military aid package that is being discussed bilaterally with the US is a step forward in that direction. Ned Price, State Department spokesman has expressed Washington’s understanding of India’s relationship with Moscow which is “distinct” from the one shared by the US with India.[iv]

The EU, at least those Member States who are India’s major strategic partners, especially France, have a better understanding of India’s dilemma, in a dangerous neighbourhood, with a large dependence on Russian arms and spares. India is being courted by the West for joint weapons production. India is buying much more from France and Israel. The share of weapons imported from Russia has fallen sharply, to around 50% between 2016 and 2021, down from 70% in the previous five-year period.

The West cannot compete with Russia on price strategy and remains reluctant to share their most cutting-edge technology. Joint arms production is the only reasonable option. Going forward will require resolve and flexibility on both sides. In the meantime, India will need to walk a careful path, based on her core interests.

Differences in perceptions remain and need to be narrowed down. From a Western and EU perspective, the conflict is a sharp and unpleasant reminder that wars need not always be fought out in distant lands. The West and NATO’s desire to weaken Russia permanently through a long-drawn-out conflict is shortsighted and ignores reality. NATO accepts that this aim may come at the cost of Ukraine’s partial destruction and permanent loss of territory. The Russians understand that the US and EU will drag the fight to the last standing Ukrainian.

In an article in the Washington Post soon after the conflict began, Henry Kissinger had invaluable advice to offer to the West. He said: “Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other—it should function as a bridge between them”. Kissenger added: “Ukraine has been independent for only 23 years. Not surprisingly, its leaders have not learned the art of compromise, even less of historical perspective. Viktor Yanukovych and his principal political rival, Yulia Tymoshenko represent the two wings of Ukraine and have not been willing to share power…We should seek reconciliation, not the domination of a faction…For the West, the demonisation of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one”.[v]

The moot point is how to end the war? Can the West afford to ignore its past? A durable peace must accommodate the legitimate security interests of both sides. Henry Kissinger recently warned: “The question will now be how to end that war? At its end a place has to be found for Ukraine and a place has to be found for Russia — if we don’t want Russia to become an outpost of China in Europe.”[vi]

In such a challenging international scenario, how can one explain India’s position on Ukraine vis-a-vis the EU?  Taking part at ‘GLOBESEC’ on ‘Taking Friendship to the Next Level: Allies in the Indo-Pacific’, External Affairs Minister Dr. S Jaishankar on 3rd June 22 offered the best explanation, explaining that India’s foreign policy is not just transactional but realistic. “I am not sitting on the fence just because I don’t agree with you. It means I am sitting on my ground”. He noted: “Europe has to get out of the mindset that Europe’s problem is the world’s problem but the world’s problem is not Europe’s problem. Today linkages are being made between China and India and what’s happening in Ukraine. China and India happened way before Ukraine. I do not see this as a clever argument……The world cannot be that Eurocentric as it used to be in the past”.[vii]

He concluded: “In terms of what is happening with the Ukraine conflict, our stand is very clear that we favour an immediate cessation of hostilities. I (India) am one-fifth of the world’s population. I am what today—the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world. Forget the history and civilisation bit; everybody knows that. I feel I am entitled to have my own side. I am entitled to weigh my own interests, and make my own choices. My choices will not be cynical and transactional. They will be a balance of my values and my interests. There is no country in the world which disregards its interests”.[viii]

In such a complex situation, what is the way forward? On 21st May 22, for the first time, Zelensky publicly acknowledged the need for a diplomatic solution. The West should understand that just as India has to live with China and Pakistan, EU has to live with Russia. Nations cannot alter their history and geography. Russia is linked to Europe. Russia is large, European, Slav and Orthodox, White, with a long and shared history, culture and civilisation with the West. Russia also has a formidable nuclear arsenal, like its ally, China.

The West needs to decide what NATO’s aims are in the long run. Is it supporting a regime change in the Kremlin? Or is it hoping for the permanent weakening of Russia and the return to living standards of the former USSR? Would a peace agreement and new European security architecture be the answer? Whatever is the answer, the EU and US must acknowledge that Ukraine has become a pawn in great power relations and is not crucial to changing the world order. Whether Ukraine is fully sovereign or fully independent or not are uncomfortable questions that the West must address.

EU Member States with memories of Soviet occupation, like Estonia and Lithuania take maximalist public positions which are irresponsible and should not be endorsed by the EU. This includes the young and charismatic Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, who informed the New York Times that Russia “must be defeated at all costs, and without compromise.”[ix] Some members of the former Warsaw Pact endorse this position.

However, the road for traditional diplomacy has opened up. These include the efforts of France, Germany and Italy as well as Israel and Turkey to keep the diplomatic channels open and mediate a ceasefire, if not a formal peace agreement. Otherwise, as many commentators are warning, the future looks far from reassuring. One could envisage a frozen conflict like in the Korean Peninsula or a deal like to the Minsk Agreements. A compromise is required by Ukraine.

With Ukrainian military and territorial losses in the Battle of the Donbass increasing, it is essential to persuade Ukraine to accept negotiations. Otherwise, President Putin reportedly intends to formally annex the entire Donbass region and the Kherson oblast while keeping control of 70 percent of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline. A follow-on offensive could then capture Odessa and cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, making it a land-locked country forever.

India is uniquely positioned as an honest broker on both sides. PM Modi has spoken on several occasions to President Putin and President Zelensky. India is in continuous contact with American, French and EU leadership. India should use her influence to persuade both sides to reach a mutual understanding. The crippling sanctions too, would need to be withdrawn. India should now forcefully use its considerable diplomatic clout and its deep friendships on all sides to end the conflict and stabilise the region.

The US should understand that there has to be some benefit for us from a strategic perspective to make it worthwhile for us to alienate China further through our continued membership of the Quad. After all, with or without Quad, we are alone in facing China. There is nevertheless growing space for India, despite these odds. The West today hears an Indian voice on the global stage that is capable of articulating a narrative of a responsible stakeholder that is firmly steeped in its own ethos. It cannot be business as usual. A substantive Western engagement with India is a natural consequence of this realisation, despite a different approach on Ukraine.

Kurt Campbell, who is in charge of US’s Indo-Pacific strategy, recently said: “One of the things that is clearly underway between the US and EU is a desire to engage more fundamentally with India. In this new strategic context, India in many ways is a swing State and…it is in all of our best interests to try to work overtime to bend its trajectory more to the West”.[x]

That will happen if the West can reassure India that she does not walk a lonely road in checkmating China. Nevertheless, India uneasily awaits the next Chinese misadventure on its borders. Unlike Zalensky, we know we are alone. We have always been alone. We need no support. We are India.

Author Brief Bio: A career foreign service officer, Amb. Bhaswati Mukherjee is one of the most experienced diplomats on Indo-EU relations. In a distinguished career of over 38 years, she has been the Indian Ambassador to The Netherlands as well as India’s Permanent Representative to UNESCO in Paris.

References:

[i] https://www.firstpost.com/world/as-a-new-great-game-is-being-played-in-ukraine-india-awaits-the-next-chinese-misadventure-on-its-borders-10415321.html

[ii] https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3059852/remarks-at-the-shangri-la-dialogue-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-a/

[iii] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/if-india-has-chosen-side-it-is-side-of-peace-s-jaishankar-on-ukraine/articleshow/90681593.cms

[iv] https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2022/feb/26/india-russia-relations-distinct-from-washingtons-equation-with-moscow-thats-okay-us-2423969.html

[v] ‘Kissinger at 99: How to avoid another Cold War?’ Interview by Niall Ferguson: The Times 13th June 22 , available at https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/henry-kissinger-at-99-how-to-avoid-another-world-war-lwt6q5vbq

[vi] Ibid

[vii] https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/no-india-not-sitting-on-fence-jaishankar-says-europe-has-to-change-mindset-101654245499431.html

[viii] Ibid

[ix] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/world/europe/estonia-kallas-ukraine-russia.html

[x] https://indiawest.com/2022/05/16/india-being-cosseted-as-a-swing-nation-on-the-global-stage-but-for-how-long/

Will Europe Die in or Be Reborn Out of Ukraine?

Kampfe nicht mit Russen…’

(Dont fight the Russians)

Prince Otto von Bismarck

Chancellor of the German Empire (1871-1890)

By late May, a tipping point had probably been reached in the ongoing Russian ‘special operation’ in Ukraine. The slow advance of the Red Army in the East leads to the rapid ‘re-Russification’ of the larger Donbass region, as Ukrainian political personnel, currency, laws and institutions are being replaced with Russian ones as part of the reconstruction. The rabid reactions in Kyiv and in western capitals have manifested in unsupported claims about ‘Putin’s rout’ which are increasingly untenable. The ‘Muscovites’ (as the Ukrainian media often label them) have not been defeated and are solidifying their advantage day by day despite massive deliveries of weapons to the other side from almost every major NATO member. The ultimate reintegration of much of the land to the East of the Dnieper into the Russian federation seems increasingly likely and in pure strategic terms it would lead to a few significant conclusions relevant to Europe, the USA and the world at large.

Ukraine (‘the borderland) is not and has never been a stable homogenous entity with defined borders. It has no natural boundaries with Russia, as the Donbass is a vast plain claimed by both countries. Contemporary Ukraine is part of the legacy of the Stalinist USSR which is already collapsing, like much of the Soviet heritage did in the last decades. While Southern Ukraine belonged to the Greek and Oriental Mediterranean world even when it was annexed by the Ottoman successors to the Eastern Roman Empire, its identity as ‘Little Russia’, south of ‘White Russia’ (modern Belarus) encompassed the lands between Kharkov, Crimea, Kiev and Odessa. The west was historically part of the Polish and Austro-Hungarian empires and is distinctly ‘Mittel Europa’ in character and geography. It is Lenin’s decision to treat Ukraine as a separate socialist ‘fraternal’ republic and Stalin’s inclusion of Galicia and Moldavia into greater Ukraine which are at the source of much of the current tragedy. Many Western and Central Ukrainians have been driven by this chequered history to build a romantic ethnic identity as ‘real Aryans’ who have no relation with Russian Slavs. Ukrainian identity in recent years has defined itself as ‘anti-Russianism’, sometimes to the point of absurdity as when historical monuments are destroyed, when the director of the Ukrainian Book Institute decrees a ban on all Russian literary classics as ‘dangerous to Ukrainians’ or when sausages labelled ‘Death to Muscovites’ are sold in stores (1). This attempt to eradicate and rewrite history betrays deep alienation and immaturity in that nationalist ideology when it tries to deny the country’s origin and centuries of existence as, perhaps the most prosperous province of the Russian empire. (2)

The US-British endeavour, supported willy nilly by the major western European powers, to expand NATO to the borders of Russia by absorbing the old buffer made up of the nations between the ‘three Seas’, (3) from the Baltic ‘City-states’ to Greece and the Balkans was bound to result in a clash with Russia and, by extension with its Eurasian hinterland, as far away as Central Asia and the Far East which are part of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation). Ukraine is a particularly sensitive area, as it is the cradle of the ‘Kievan Rus’, the earliest Russian State in historical and religious terms as well as the outlet to the Black Sea and thence to the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal. As such, it connects the Slavic world with Greece and the Levant, the hallowed fountainheads of Orthodox Christianity. The Tzars fought great wars in the 17th and 18th centuries to conquer the Cossack and Tatar lands later called New Russia or Little Russia and no Russian government would be forgiven by its people for letting this heartland of their nation be turned into a forward base of the ancestral European rivals who briefly wrestled it away in the 1854-55 Crimean war.

For the Russian Federation, the Sea of Azov is an essential outlet for the Don River basin and its trade routes that come down from the rich agricultural and industrial central and northern regions. Sevastopol Crimea is a ‘hero city’ of the second World War, standing watch over the estuaries of the Don and Dnieper. Russia could live with Ukraine as a politically neutral economic partner but not as the member of an inimical alliance led by historic challengers of Russian power.

To go back to the years following World War I here is a revealing insight about the US Government’s assessment of the ‘Ukrainian nation’: In August 1948, the US National Security Council issued memorandum (NSC 20/1 1948), requested by then Defense Secretary James Forrestal. The document described American objectives with respect to the Soviet Union.

A significant part of the memorandum focused on Ukraine. American analysts were convinced that the territory was an integral part of greater Russia, and it was highly unlikely that Ukrainians could exist as an independent nation. Most importantly, it noted, any support given to separatists would be met with a strong negative reaction by Russians.

“The economy of the Ukraine is inextricably intertwined with that of Russia as a whole…To attempt to carve it out of the Russian economy and to set it up as something separate would be as artificial and as destructive as an attempt to separate the Corn Belt, including the Great Lakes industrial area, from the economy of the United States…

Finally, we cannot be indifferent to the feelings of the Great Russians themselves… They will continue to be the strongest national element in that general area, under any status … The Ukrainian territory is as much a part of their national heritage as the Middle West is of ours, and they are conscious of that fact. A solution which attempts to separate the Ukraine entirely from the rest of Russia is bound to incur their resentment and opposition, and can be maintained, in the last analysis, only by force,” read the report (4).

The European Union has shown more clearly than ever before its inner discord and divisions and its dysfunctional management which, in times of crises looks like it is only capable of issuing general, occasionally inapplicable statements and resolutions. The somewhat surrealistic nature of the EU two-headed bureaucracy is highlighted by the personalities of the Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (5) and the Council President Charles Michel. Behaving almost as rivals they are often ignored by leaders of the member-states, beginning with French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz. Mrs. Von der Leyen uses her position to issue decrees that exceed her legal powers and spells out unworkable policies such as the rapid transition to renewable energies for the EU (no more coal, gas and oil, unless they come from “her American friends’ as she puts it, and non-Russian origins) and the prompt inclusion of Ukraine into the Union. She still vouches for the ‘inevitable and necessary’ Ukrainian victory and swears that ‘Europe will never again go back to Russia for resources’.(6)

Meanwhile, the national governments of major member-states are trying to deal with the facts on the ground by making overtures to President Putin without paying attention to her declarations. They have to consider as imminent, if not a ‘fait accompli’ the absorption of Eastern Ukraine into Russia and the possible confederation or reunion of the western part with Poland.

Among historic analogies that come to mind, the situation of the Greek city states of the 4th century BCE vis-à-vis the Macedonian kingdom is one. Those prosperous but weakened polities, including Athens were humbled by King Philip II and his son Alexander and had to accept Macedonia’s dominance. Is that a chronologically remote simile to what is happening now between the EU and Russia?

The United States demonstrates its inability and unwillingness to enter a new war outside its own continent and limits its intervention to selling weapons to its allies and ‘leading from behind’ as former President Obama had proposed. As a result of the American withdrawal, many frozen territorial disputes are beginning to heat up, since the status quo from the age of bipolar US-Soviet supremacy is being challenged by various actors.

Turkey has returned to its former age-old role as an Eastern independent power centre. It no longer is a bulwark of US and NATO facing the Russian, Iranian and Arab ‘outsiders’. Instead, now Turkey plays the US, Germany, France and Russia against each other to gain and maintain its leverage and, often acting as a spoiler for both the West and Russia it has restored its old strategic bond with Great Britain which predated its late 19th century alliance with Germany. The “Eastern Question,” like several other ancestral geopolitical quandaries, has risen again, all the more so because of the economic fragility and the political uncertainty about the country’s future under and after Erdogan.

Ukrainian nationalism has become a strange hybrid phenomenon typical of our age. It combines elements of Aryan racism, apparent in the anti-Russian Neo-Nazi symbology of its special and paramilitary forces, with a strong Jewish ingredient which has been used by Israel for the past decades to acquire influence in the Black Sea region, between Russia and the West. Strange bedfellows as they may be, the Israeli and ‘Far Right’ elements in the Ukrainian power systems have so far coexisted and have apparently had unexpected effects, such as the exit of tens of thousands of Russian Jews who left for Israel in the days and weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, codenamed Operation Z(7). It is legitimate to wonder if this war and its ultimate outcome may change once again the rapport of Russia to the Jewish State with which relations has been excellent until recently, despite mutual suspicions and occasional face-offs during the Syrian civil war, but which may now be suspected by the Kremlin of having played a double game.

The return of a form of Nazism to Ukraine harks back to World War II when ‘Banderist’ Ukrainians flocked to the German flag, initially to free themselves from Polish rule, ‘get rid of Jews’ and eventually fight the Communist USSR but it is part of a wider phenomenon in Eastern Europe (called ‘New Europe’ by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld at the time of the second Gulf War). In the Baltic States, in Hungary, Romania and in the Catholic and Muslim Balkans (Croatia, Bosnia and Albania) which fell under the aegis of the Third Reich Hitlerian Germany is remembered more as a protector from Bolshevism than as a genocidal oppressor, also because of strong antisemitic feelings remaining in those regions. Hence, one effect of the EU’s expansion and turn to the East and to NATO sponsored militarisation against Russia is that the visceral hostility to Nazism and Germany’s own deep guilt complex have been mitigated in recent years, unlike in Russia where the excoriation of Nazism is at the core of the national ethos, given the twenty-seven million Soviet citizens who fell in the great patriotic war. Instead, in the West and in North America in particular where, despite appearances, Nazism was never reviled as much as on the old continent and was even regarded as a useful opponent of Marxism, there is a tendency to gradually equate Hitler and Stalin as ‘twin evils’ to be played against each other if that helps to combat the geopolitical rise of Russia.

In an even wider, global perspective the rise of a parochial, ethnocentric and revanchist ‘regional’ nationalism is visible outside Ukraine and the Baltic States in areas such as the Basque Country and Catalonia in Spain, Flanders in Belgium and was quite strong in the Lombard provinces of Italy until recently, not to mention ex-Yugoslavia, speaking only of Europe. These centrifugal tendencies contradict and yet coexist with the reaffirmation of national powers in the wake of BREXIT and as a reaction to Davos-style liberal ‘Soros-globalism’. Together, they are creating tensions and uncertainties about the political equilibrium of the continent and in some cases, call for revisiting old intra and parastatal cooperative structures such as the Hansa (or Hanseatic League) in Northern Europe which for centuries linked the Scandinavian, Prussian and Germanic port cities in a dynamic commercial network. A new maritime trading agreement would necessarily encompass the Russian, Finnish and Swedish Baltic outlets and ought to include a mutual security agreement guaranteed by all member-nations. It would be the safest way to protect the autonomy of the small Baltic nations and of Poland which are on the frontline of the battlefield between Russia and NATO-led Europe and cannot be protected from an invasion.

Making those historically weaker states forward bases of NATO’s deployment against the Eurasian bloc can only be against their long-term interest as they are not easily defensible and yet pose a threat to the nearby and Belarussian and Russian urban centres. Russia’s and France’s former proposals for a joint European-Eurasian architecture would provide room for stabler alternative transnational arrangements but they have been staunchly opposed by the flag-bearers of Atlanticism who include, apart from the inevitable British statesmen perpetually worried about prospects of continental unity, many of the top figures in the EU and several national leaders in Western and Central Europe.

We are witnessing a new phase of the age-old conflict between the Roman Catholic and Graeco-Slav Byzantine Empires despite the fact that the west of the continent is largely secularised and agnostic, as are many Russians although their State is closely tied to the national orthodox Church. Civilisational identities survive beneath ideological and political changes. I remember the reaction from the late Prince Nicholas Romanov, who had lived all his life in western Europe, to the plans for the European Union to bring the continent together: ‘There is another Europe’ he said ‘Orthodox Europe and I don’t see why we should annex it to the Brussels Confederation’ (8).

The ‘gathering of Russian lands into the Russky Mir’, the Russian World, is what all Tzars were committed to and it is that task which Vladimir Putin believes has been entrusted to him by the nation.

In another article (9) I evoked some geo-cultural and historical parallels between Russia and Germany, two neighbouring imperial nations whose territorial and ethno-linguistic borders overlap and have remained somewhat undefined to this day, partly because of extensive migrations and annexations of surrounding lands over the centuries. The rise or expansion of one of the two empires often took place at the expanse of the other, as when Wilhelmine Germany in 1917 directly brought about the collapse of the Romanov Empire before herself incurring defeat, or when in 1944 the Soviet Union gained control over Eastern Germany and her Central European satellites. Before a resurgent Russia Germany is rearming in response (10) and reclaiming her place as the leading military power of future Europe, a Europe that claims it will no longer rely on its vaunted ‘normative soft power’ (11). In this revived confrontation, nations caught in the middle like Poland and the Baltics may once again lose their autonomy or even perhaps their independence if and when borders are redrawn, as is happening in Ukraine.

The wider impact of Russia’s ‘reunification’ will increasingly be felt across the Eurasian continent whose axis runs through Russia, from the Pacific shores and the Mongol highlands to the Danubian and Rhenish fluvial valleys. The original Russian medieval State occupied the North-South arc between the Baltic and the Black Sea and Zbignew Brzezinski wrote that ‘without Ukraine, Russia is no longer an empire’ (12).

From the 15th Century, after the Mongol hordes withdrew into Central Asia the Grand Princes of Moscow gradually extended their rule eastwards and the annexation of Siberia gave Russia immense strategic depth to help defeat western invasions. The last Tzar, Nicholas II actively oversaw the development of Southern and Eastern Siberia whose great cities (Ekaterinburg, Perm, Tomsk, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Vladivostok) flourished along the Trans-Siberian route and provided a closer connection to China. The region was used as a fallback headquarters during the Bolshevik Revolution by the ‘White’ leader, Admiral Kolchak who unsuccessfully fought the Reds from ‘Asian Russia’ around the time when another reactionary, General Ungern von Starnberg set up an Aryan-Buddhist government in Mongolia to oppose the Communist regime in Moscow.

A lasting break between Russia and Europe, which Kissinger has warned against (13) would lead to Russia increasing its effort to develop resources and perhaps even establish a new capital in Siberia, for which Omsk is a prime candidate. That ‘pivot to the Orient’ would signal closer economic relations with China and other leading Asian nations which should also benefit India as well as Kazakhstan, Iran and the two Koreas. By shifting its centre of gravity towards the Orient and implementing its longstanding Razvitie (development) project across Central Asia, from China to the Mediterranean according to the strategy advocated by the ‘Eurasianists’, Russia may also be better able to control the feared Chinese penetration into Siberia and balance Beijing’s influence on Mongolia, North Korea and the ex-Soviet ‘Stans’ (14). Conversely the EU nations should experience major economic hardship if they remain cut off from Russian-Ukrainian food, raw materials and energy supplies.

Current events are paving the way for the creation of a rival bloc to the Atlantic West based on resource autonomy, strategic military equivalence and a separate international reserve currency and financial clearing system. This prospect was envisioned and promoted since the dawn of the century by policy-makers and economists in several countries, particularly in the Russian Federation, China and Iran. The time has perhaps come for this concept to come alive.

Author Brief Bio: Mr Côme Carpentier de Gourdon is currently a consultant with India Foundation and is also the Convener of the Editorial Board of the WORLD AFFAIRS JOURNAL. He is an associate of the International Institute for Social and Economic Studies (IISES), Vienna, Austria. Côme Carpentier is an author of various books and several articles, essays and papers

Notes:

(1)-Reports of these developments have been published by various sources. Photographs of sausage packages carrying ‘Death to Muscovite’ labels have circulated on the Net. Oleksandra Koval, the Director of the Ukrainian Book Centre is reportedly implementing the nationwide removal of some hundred million books, including   Russian literary classics from public libraries

(2) For a fairly objective retrospective on the past of the greater area now occupied by Ukraine see the article by Egor Kholmogorov cf. https://www.rt.com/russia/556073-russians-never-let-go-ukraine

(3)- The Three ‘inland’ Seas (Baltic, Black and Adriatic) are at the origin of the ‘Three Seas Initiative’ https://3seas.eu/   but the territory between the Baltic and the Black Sea has long been disputed between successive regional hegemons: United Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, Russia, the Austrian Empire and Germany. King Charles XII of Sweden in 1708-1709 came all the way to what is now Eastern Ukraine in his campaign to extend his sway across this North-South belt. Two centuries later Kaiser Wilhelm II and subsequently Hitler briefly took it over and then Stalin brought it under Soviet control. Since the fall of the USSR the US and Britain, together with defeated Germany forged a league of the countries sharing this region, primarily as a ‘cordon sanitaire’ between Russia and the West, extending from Estonia to Bulg

aria and Ukraine and further to Georgia and Azerbaijan (the latter has since taken its distance from this association as it needs good relations with Moscow). By including Finland and Sweden NATO intends to buttress this barrier to the East of the erstwhile Iron Curtain.

(4) From https://www.rt.com/russia/556073-russians-never-let-go-ukraine/ (ibid.)

(5) The background and career of Ursula von der Leyen have been discussed in several articles, many referring to her controversial role as German Defence Minister, a position which she left under a cloud as she was accused of conflicts of interest with international consulting firms. At the EU some arbitrary decisions in connection with the management of the COVID-19 epidemic have raised more questions about her relationship with McKinsey & Co. and to the American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer. She led negotiations which resulted in a multibillion Euro secretive contract between the EU and Pfizer before pressuring all EU member-states to make Pfizer vaccinations compulsory for all their citizens, an unconstitutional mandate. She does not hide her hostility to Russia and her personal connection with the USA, home of her maternal family. Her abrupt decision to ban Russian media in the EU was also irregular. There is a widespread realization in international political circles that Mrs. von der Leyen is not competent and should be investigated on suspicions of corruption.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-biography-career-inconvenient-truth/

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-caught-in-scandal-of-payments-and-wiped-phones-38s8jg3c7

(6)-In an interview dated 23-5-2022 with Mika Brzezinski, Mrs Von Der Leyen, confronted with the fact that the EU has not been able to stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia, claimed that it was better to keep buying Putin’s energy in order not to allow him to sell it elsewhere at a higher price (sic). Several economists and experts in the energy sector have qualified her statement as nonsensical. So was also her apparent acceptance of US oil and gas extracted through fracking as clean. (www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/putin-pushing-europe-in-direction-of-renewable-clean-energy-says-european-commission-president-140631109686)

(7)- https://www.timesofisrael.com/over-15000-have-immigrated-to-israel-since-russia-invaded-ukraine-ministry/

(8)-Remarks made by HIH Prince Nicholas Romanovich Romanov (1922-2014) in a private conversation with the author in 1996.

(9) https://comecarpentier.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Outlines-of-Global-Transformations_4_2018-Internet.pdf

(10). According to a report from Reuters about Germany’s 100 billion Euro plan for rearmament and military reorganization. 19 billion are to be spent for the Navy, on submarines, corvettes and missiles. 40 billion for the Air Force. Including the purchase of Eurofighter Aircraft; 16 billion on the land forces and 2 billion for uniforms and equipment.

(11)-Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Commission for Foreign Affairs recently stated that ‘The Ukrainian conflict has proven to the EU that soft power is not enough. The Union must become a military power’. He also said that ‘Europe needs to learn the language of power’. In parallel, former Italian Premier Berlusconi has noted that the West is isolated in its position on Ukraine.

(12)- Brzezinski https://www.cia.gov/library/abbottabad-compound/BD/BD4CE651B07CCB8CB069F9999F0EADEE_Zbigniew_Brzezinski_-_The_Grand_ChessBoard.pdf

(13)- https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/kissinger-these-are-the-main-geopolitical-challenges-facing-the-world-right-now/

And comment in response from a Russian foreign policy expert: https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/kissinger-and-the-fight-for-russia/

(14)- Conflits (revue de geopolitique), no.38, March-April 2022, Olivier Roquepin and Yekaterina Kenina,  La Chine et lAsie russe. pp. 18-21.

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