Introduction

Through the Treaty of Amritsar, the British had bestowed the Kashmir Valley and other territories on Maharaja Gulab Singh who was the ruler of the Jammu region. With the merger of these territories, the Maharaja established the state of Jammu and Kashmir. This included Ladakh and present day Gilgit Baltistan. The Jammu and Kashmir State thus created by the Dogra Rulers was one of the largest States under the British paramountcy in India^[i]. It had an area of 2,22,236 sq. km. including those areas which are presently under the illegal occupation of Pakistan and China^[ii].

British concern over Russian expansionism led to the establishment in 1877 of the Gilgit Agency. This was re-established in 1935 under the control of the British Resident in Jammu and Kashmir and was given on lease for a period of 60 years commencing from 29 March 1935.^[iii] Maharaja Hari Singh, who ascended the throne of Jammu and Kashmir in 1925, was concerned about the conduct of certain British officials in building huts in Gulmarg region of Kashmir. He had also expressed his anti-British stance on several occasions, at times even in the meetings of the Chamber of Princes. This became the main cause of contention between the British officers and the Maharaja. To protect his State from the British in the year 1925, Maharaja Hari Singh issued an order that Indian subjects will be given more relaxations over British subjects in building huts in Gulmarg region of Kashmir. British Government openly protested this differentiation and communicated it via a series of telegrams through its Foreign and Political Department.

To prevent the British residents from buying the properties in J&K for their own permanent settlement and depriving the poor local population of J&K of their land and opportunities, Maharaja Hari Singh issued the State Subject Definition Notification on 20 April 1927.^[iv] The notification classified the State Subjects as also companies which had been registered in the state. Vide the above notification; the Mulkis (Hereditary State subjects) were given preference in employment in the Government services. It also instructed that grants of land for building and other purposes were to go to the ‘Hereditary State subjects’ and permitted the selling or transferring of such land to Hereditary State subjects only. With respect to contracts, it decreed that the claims of State subjects should have priority over those of non-State Subjects. It was this State Subject Notification (1927) which the valley politicians used post 1947 to bring in Article 35A under the protection of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution. However, they made some convenient deletions to suit their political agenda and maintain their political control over J&K State.

Accession of J&K State to India

The instrument of Accession signed by Maharaja Hari Singh was the same as was executed by the rulers of other princely states that acceded to India. The British Government could not have questioned this act of accession as it was made directly under the enactments of the British Parliament. Further, the Legal Advisor to the United Nations Commission also concluded that the State’s accession to India was legal and could not be questioned.

However, while accepting the Instrument of Accession, Lord Mountbatten, the then Governor General of India, did state his views in a letter addressed to the ruler of the State that as soon as law and order was restored and J&K State is cleared of the invaders, it was his Government’s wish, in conformity with their policy in case of disputed accession, that “the question of State’s accession should be settled by a reference to the people”. This statement was not a part of the Instrument of Accession; therefore it does not affect the legality of the accession in anyway.^[v] However it was Pandit Nehru‘s statement on 2^nd November 1947 about holding a plebiscite in J&K that opened the gates for Sheikh Abdullah to further his personal ambition of being ‘Sultan of J&K’ and he used Article 370 to bully and manipulate the Central Government.

Mehr Chand Mahajan has said:

“The Indian Independence Act did not envisage the conditional accession. It could not envisage such a situation, as it would be outside the Parliament’s policy. It wanted to keep no Indian State in a state of suspense. It conferred on the rulers of Indian States absolute power in their discretion to accede to either of the two Dominions. The Dominions Governor General had the power to accept the accession or reject the offer but he had no power to keep the question open or attach conditions to it, as the act of accession made the Dominion Government responsible for defence, communication and external affairs of the acceding State”.

The J&K State’s Instrument of Accession and its acceptance were similar to all the other Indian States and was unconditional, voluntary and absolute. It bound the State of Jammu & Kashmir to India both legally and constitutionally^[vi]. The accession was no doubt prompted by Pakistan’s attack on J&K on 22 October 1947. This attack, dubbed as Operation Gulmarg was the brainchild of the Pakistan military and was supported by the Pakistan government. 20 lashkar’s, each compressing of 1000 Pashtun tribals, were raised by the Pakistani army. Besides being given weapons and equipment and provided logistic support, they were also led by officers from the Pakistan army. Indeed, the Pakistan army, with the complete backing of the ruling Pakistani dispensation, carried out the entire planning and execution of this operation.

On commencement of Constitution of India and by virtue of its own language of Article 370, only Article 1 and Article 370 were made applicable to the State of Jammu & Kashmir. Article 1 (1) declares, “India, that is Bharat, shall be a Union of States” Article 1 is a solemn declaration of the People of India that the Union of States is an indestructible Union of States. Therefore, no state has any power to secede from the Union. Thus, the issue of accession of the States stands settled politically and constitutionally.

India’s Complaint to the United Nations

Despite Sardar Patel’s reservations on the subject, Pandit Nehru, under pressure from Mountbatten and his own misplaced faith in the newly established United Nations (UN), took the Pakistani invasion to the United Nations Security Council under Chapter V1 and Article 35 on 1 January 1948. The war between India and Pakistan was finally suspended on 1 January 1949. By then, a large part of the J&K State territory had not been liberated and still remains occupied by Pakistan. The India-Pakistan war along with the ‘Great Game’ played by western powers encouraged the ambitious Sheikh Abdullah to negotiate inclusion of Article 370 in the Indian Constitution by which he retained political power over the State and its people and eventually led to the dynasty politics in J&K.

Article 370

While revisiting the 17 October 1949 discussion in the ‘Indian Constituent Assembly’ it is clear that there was strong opposition, both by Congressmen and other party leaders to the proposal by Gopalaswamy Ayyangar to include Draft Article 306 A^[vii] in the Constitution of India. Maulana Hasrat Mohani protested against the inclusion of this Article in the main draft of the Constitution and asked Gopalaswamy Ayyangar, “Why this discrimination, please?”^[viii]

Ayyangar’s reply was, “situation is not normal in the State of Jammu and Kashmir. A big territory of State is under enemy’s illegal occupation, we are at war with Pakistan, thus in this situation State’s administration should be handled in special manner. Secondly, we are entangled in the United Nations over this issue and it can’t be said, how long it will take to settle the situation”. He further added, “Till a Constituent Assembly comes into being, only an interim arrangement is possible and not an arrangement which could at once be brought into line with the arrangement that exists in the case of the other States”.^[ix]

Finally, the motion was passed and draft Article 306A became Article 370 of the Indian Constitution under Part XII with its marginal heading categorically stating, “Temporary and Transitional Provisions”. J&K Constitution was brought into force on 26th January 1957 and technically, J&K Constituent Assembly should have abrogated article 370 then, but it continued to linger on for more than six decades in the main text of India’s Constitution. In the later years, when members of Parliament objected to its continuation, Pt. Nehru in his Lok Sabha speech reaffirmed that Article 370 has been eroded to a large extent and whatever has remained will erode out automatically. “Yeh Dhara Ghiste Ghiste Ghis Jaayegi”^[x]

Under Article 370, power to apply the Constitution of India to the State of Jammu & Kashmir was granted to the President of India along with the powers of exceptions and modifications with either the concurrence or in consultation with the J&K State Legislative Assembly. The residuary powers under Article 248 in contrast to the Constitutional scheme for all other States (under an amendment to Article 248) were granted to J&K State. This differential treatment to the erstwhile State of J&K irked many, even within the Congress party itself.^[xi]

Article 370: A Constitutional Harakiri on Development, Progress and People of J&K State

The Indian Constitution guarantees rule of law, equal rights and equal opportunities for all its citizens. At the time of accession of over 550 princely States, India was a complex multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-religious pluralistic country, stricken with underdevelopment, mass poverty and illiteracy. To help all the acceded States to address their inequalities and dissimilarities, the Indian Constitution included Chapter XX1, which addressed these issues of inequality through concessional treatments via 25 Articles for almost 15 States of India, and Article 370 is one of these 25 articles for J&K State. 

Though, Article 370 was inserted in Indian Constitution as a ‘Temporary & Transitional’ arrangement,^[xii] it remained as a part of the Constitution for decades, and each dynast politician in J&K misused it for gaining and retaining power in the state and for distributing largesse to their cronies. The authority given to the J&K State under Article 370 to bring about progress and development for its people was used in the establishment of an oligarchic domination over the minorities, weaker sections and exploitation of local populace of the State.

Article 35A:  A Constitutional Fraud and Challenge to Fundamental Rights

It was in the year 1954 that Article 35-A was inserted in the Constitution of India, as applicable to the State of Jammu & Kashmir, through the Constitution Order 1954, along with a slew of other provisions of the Indian Constitution. The addition of 35A in Part III of the Indian Constitution dealing with Fundamental Rights of citizens and individuals, circumvented Article 13 of the Indian Constitution, which declares any law inconsistent with or in derogation of the fundamental rights to be void. This rendered the most sacrosanct feature of ‘Judicial Review’ (which subsequently has been declared as a part of the inalienable basic structure of the Indian Constitution) redundant, when it came to protecting a gamut of fundamental rights of the residents of the then State of J&K.

Article 35A further enacted Section 6 of the “Constitution of J&K” to create a class of “permanent residents”. The category of ‘Permanent Residents’ was arbitrarily frozen to the cut off year 1944, using the State Notification No. 1-L/84 dated 20th April, 1927^[xiii], read with State Notification No. 13/L dated 27th June, 1932^[xiv] as the justification of its existence. However, unlike these notifications, Sub-sections (1) and (2) of Section 6 of the State Constitution did not apparently make any provision for acquisition of status of permanent residents of the descendants of the permanent residents of the State.

Article 35A led to the following:

• Gender discrimination in J&K State.
• Discrimination against the Valmiki community, Gorkhas, West Pak refugees, Border displaced people
• No rights for non-permanent residents to seek admission for higher education in State Universities.
• No rights to acquire and hold even a limited immovable property to built a home for own shelter under Article 19(1)(e) read with 19(1) (f) by non permanent resident
• No right to be considered for employment by non permanent residents in the State Services or State Instrumentalities guaranteed under Article 14 and 16
• No right to purchase and acquire limited property to start a small business for non permanent residents
• Denial of remedy of judicial review under Article 35A violated the right to life and liberty guaranteed under Article 21 read with Article 32 of the Constitution of India for two generations of the above mentioned Indian citizens living in J&K.
• There was no ST reservation and the SC reserved seats were not rotated as was required under the law.

Accordingly, with the abrogation of Article 35A, the following benefits accrued automatically to the aggrieved population:

• The Right of Equality and equal protection of law under Article 14 for all domiciles of Union Territory J&K
• Right to opportunity for higher education in the State funded institutes under Article 14 and article 15 for all domiciles of Union Territory J&K
• Right of employment in the State Services and Public Sector Institutions under Article 16 for all domiciles of Union Territory J&K
• Right to reside and settle in any part of India (right to shelter) under Article 19(1)(e) and
• Right to life under Article 21 (are the human rights conferred under a constitutional scheme, by the people of India upon themselves, for the proper development as a human being)

All the above such rights are held to be part of Basic Structure of the Indian Constitution. The J&K State also used ancestry as a racial definition and for racial purpose and emphasised the explicit tie to race. The ancestral enquiry of the citizens is forbidden under Articles 14 and 15(1) for the further reasons that using racial classification is corruptive of the whole legal order Part III seeks to preserve, but Section 6 enacted by the State legislature of J&K threw the scheme of these Articles to the wind.

Article 370 gave the President the power to take the Indian Constitution to J&K with modification and exceptions but no way does it give the President the power to amend or interfere with the Basic structure of the Indian Constitution. Also, when the President passes an ordinance, then under Article 123 of Indian Constitution, it has to be ratified by the parliament within 6 weeks, once the Parliament sits /starts which was not done in case of Article 35A.

Impact

Seventy years of mis-governance, corruption, terrorism, youth taking to drugs and the gun-toting culture, genocide of the Kashmiri Hindus, the human rights violation of Valmikis, gender discrimination and security threat to the region and rest of the country, finally forced the Government of India in August 2019 to take a major step in the National interest of decommissioning Article 370, following due legal and constitutional process. After this Constitutional Order 2019, all the provisions of Indian Constitution as well as the amendments are now applicable to both the Union Territory of J&K and the Union Territory of Ladakh.

The Hon’ble President of India, vide Constitutional Orders 272 and 273 made on 5 and 6 August 2019 respectively, ended this gross imbalance of guarantees of fundamental rights among the residents of Union Territory of J&K and the Union Territory of Ladakh. Article 13 was effectively brought back to life in both these Unions in all its glory and sanctity. Moreover, the entire Constitution of India was made applicable to the previously existing State of Jammu & Kashmir and all its residents, whether or not falling into the ‘Permanent Residents’ category, were handed over the power to exercise all the fundamental rights in Part III of the Indian Constitution, which citizens in rest of the Country could exercise.

Interestingly, the upheld precedence set in 1965, invoked Article 370 to make itself inoperative. Subsequently, a resolution was also presented for Reorganisation of State of Jammu & Kashmir. Ladakh was made a separate Union Territory without a legislature while the Jammu and Kashmir was made a Union Territory with a legislature.

There are opinions favouring and against the procedures followed, for the ReorganisSation of the State of Jammu & Kashmir, and also for decommissioning of Article 370. Some constitutional experts, rather than debating the legality of the Government’s move are trying to trace the political motive behind it. However other constitutional legal experts are of the opinion that the legal and constitutional procedures were followed.

One of the objections to the Decommission of Article 370 is the absence of the Constituent Assembly in J&K. The counter argument is that absence of CA can be interpreted in three ways:

• Absence of CA means 370 sub clause 3 itself becomes defunct
• Absence CA the proviso becomes defunct
• Absence CA can be construed as its successor.

Legal experts are of the opinion that if Article 370 had gone to the extent of stating that in the absence of the Constituent Assembly, the proviso renders the whole provision defunct; only then could the decommissioning not be possible. Other experts argue that the words ‘President may by notification cease / modify Article 370’ gives the express power to the President to decommission Article 370, and the absence of this phrase in Article 370 would have been an inherent limitation to do so. There is also a view that the decommissioning of Article 370 under Presidential Order 2019 is in conflict with the basic Structure of the Indian Constitution. Others opine to the contrary and argue that article 370 itself created exception to Fundamental Rights of Indians both inside the State of J&K and in the rest of the country and now Presidential Order 2019 has given full play to Fundamental Rights in Jammu & Kashmir thus strengthening the basic structure of the Indian Constitution. There are also arguments that views of the people through their representatives were not considered due to the absence of the J&K State Legislative Assembly. But the counter argument is that even if the views were taken, the Government was not bound by those views.

When 370 was being framed in its sub article (3), the framers of the Indian Constitution used the word ‘cease to operate’ thus contemplating a situation that it could be decommissioned or abrogated without amending the Indian Constitution. The argument in favour of the procedure of using 370 Clause 1(d) provisions to de-operationalise Article 370 itself (through Article 367 which is about definitions and interpretations) is that there is an Upheld Precedence to it as the same route was followed in 1965 to replace Sadr-e-Riyasat with Governor & Wazir-e-Azam with Chief Minister.

Conclusion

5 August 2020 marked the first Anniversary of Decommissioning of Article 370 and Reorganisation of the State of Jammu & Kashmir into two Union Territories—the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir and Union Territory of Ladakh. The two Constitutional orders ended the constitutional isolation of the northernmost State of India and also put an end to the shameful, discriminatory and undemocratic policies and practices in that region, securing the rights and privileges denied to the economically and socially backward populace of the region, and bringing them at par with the rest of the citizens all over the India. After the amendment of Article 370, Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir and the Union Territory of Ladakh fully come under the umbrella of Indian Constitution with the expectation that the long delayed peace and development will now take precedence over terrorism and radicalisation in the region.

(Shakti Munshi is Director, C-Tech Labs, Pvt. Ltd. An entrepreneur and social activist, she is also the Secretary, Jammu Kashmir Study Centre, Mumbai. Legal inputs for this article were provided by Divya Roy, Advocate Supreme Court and Pankaj Jamtani.)

^[i] A Handbook of Jammu and Kashmir State 1 (The Ranbir Government Press, Jammu, 3^rd Edition, 1947).

^[ii] Majid Hussain, Geography of Jammu and Kashmir 3 (Rajesh Publication, New Delhi, 1987).

^[iii] Arjan Nath Chaku & Inder K Chaku, The Kashmir Story through the ages, Vitasta Publishing, New Delhi, p 27-28

^[iv] A copy of the notification is available at https://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/states/jandk/documents/actsandordinances/State_Subject_Rules.htm

^[v] Adarsh Sein Anand, “Accession of Jammu and Kashmir State – Historical and Legal Perspectives”, Journal of the Indian Law Institute, October-December 2001, Volume 43, Number 4, available at http://14.139.60.114:8080/jspui/bitstream/123456789/12505/1/012_Accession%20of%20Jammu%20and%20Kashmir%20State%20-%20Historical%20and%20Legal%20Prespectives%20%28455-468%29.pdf

^[vi] A.S. Anand, Constitution of Jammu & Kashmir – Its Development & Comments  66 (Universal Publishing, 8th edn., 2016)

^[vii] Draft Article 306A later renumbered as Article 370  when Constitution of India was finally drafted. Article 370 (before 2019 amendment) states:

“370. Temporary provisions with respect to the State of Jammu and Kashmir

(1) Notwithstanding anything contained in this Constitution,—

(a) the provisions of Article 238 shall not apply now in relation to the state of Jammu and Kashmir;[a]

^[viii] Constituent Assembly Debates, 17 October 1949

^[ix] Constituent Assembly Debates, 17 October 1949

^[x] Pt. Nehru in his Lok Sabha Speech on “Closer Integration of Jammu and Kashmir with India” in the year 1963

^[xi] M.S. Ratnaparkhi, Kashmir Problem and its Solution, 77 (Atlantic Publishers, Delhi, 2011)

^{[xii]  Marginal note of Art. 370 under Part XXI of COI.}

^[xiii] Jammu and Kashmir Permanent Residents (Disqualification) Bill, 2004 as Unconstitutional by Justice G.D. Sharma (2004) 6 SCC (Jour) 23.

^{[xiv] Justice G. D. Sharma, Supra note 8}

A year down the line, Ladakh without Article 370 looks fully empowered

It has been one year now, since Ladakh became a Union Territory (UT) and its is time to reflect on what this means for the region. Certainly, August 5, 2019, the day of the abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A was a watershed moment—popularly dubbed as “historical blunder being corrected in one stroke,” and a new “tryst with destiny”. It was the day when all the intricate and difficult knots that strangulated J&K for decades stood untied. It was also the day when the state was split and formed into two Union Territories (UT)—The UT of Ladakh and the UT of Jammu & Kashmir. Both came into existence on 31 October 2019.

Abrogation of Article 370 was the best political exposition of the BJP led NDA government so far—a bid to bring Kashmir out of the vortex of terror and to fully integrate it with the rest of the country. Of course, credit must be given where credit is due. It received the widest political endorsement in the country. The cynics obviously cried foul—ranging from the killing of a democratic polity, recommitting a historical blunder, a betrayal, to a sinister ploy to alter Kashmir’s demography, and so on and so forth. But it was a monumental step taken by the Modi government. In one stroke, it removed all the ills of Kashmir misfortune, boosted national domestic confidence, struck a deadly blow to Pakistan’s ‘bleeding India’ game and even called out China’s bluff.

For the BJP, it was also about fulfilling its long-promised political agenda. It meant ending the reign of terror, death, destruction, loot and rape being perpetuated in the Valley since 1948. As it is, history has often been unkind to Kashmir. The people were killed like “insects in the fire” by Turkic warriors. The Mughals did nothing except build gardens of joy in the Valley. The Afghans let loose a reign of terror, murder, loot and rape during their 67 years’ rule.

Abrogation of Article 370 meant rationalising the territorial reality of J&K. The fact was that 82 percent of J&K was neither Jammu, nor Kashmir; it was Ladakh and Gilgit-Baltistan. It was a flawed arrangement where 15 percent people ruled the rest of 85 percent population of the state. The removal of Article 370 also meant changing the Kashmir narrative, its duplicitous political culture of intrigue and blackmail, perpetually played and exploited by a few corrupt Kashmiri elite. It meant busting the deep nexus between local political structures and Pakistani agencies. The separatist kingpin Syed Ali Shah Geelani and his Pakistani network of agents are almost dismantled. It means reenactment of Kashmir’s dignity, removing distrust, restoring stability, removing its backwardness and inequality. It is about making a million aspirations and opportunities.

A year down the line, J&K and Ladakh without Article 370 is peaceful. All the prophecies of a doomsday scenario, bloodbath and violence haven’t come true. Sporadic terrorist incidents do take place, but separatist rhetoric is down. External detractors were amazed and started resorting to internationalising the issue. China has even hurriedly plotted military aggression in Ladakh over the change in Kashmir status. It is too early to assess the reality on the ground, but changes are afoot in Kashmir.

As the UTs of Ladakh and J&K start on their new journey, there are obviously the initial hiccups and teething problems of transition. The new UT administration seems to be facing monumental tasks in rebuilding a region that was hopelessly backward as a result of chaos created by separatists. Industry was non-existent, and the state was living on subsidies and loan waivers. In fact, the entire re-organisation, restructuring and overhauling of the entire legal and administrative framework must have been a mammoth task. Implementing the bifurcation and splitting the state administration, its employees, assets and finance into two Union Territories would have been quite an effort. And there were problems of legal procedures to be streamlined.

Fixing the old issues riddled with inherent contradictions is not easy, especially when it is no longer about viewing J&K only through the prism of the Valley. Finding ways to smoothen them would take time. However, the two UT administrations are now gearing up to implement big-ticket economic projects, ramping up infrastructure, investment and employment issues. In a big jump, the Centre allocated a separate fund of Rs 30,757 crore for J&K and Rs 5,958 crore for Ladakh for fiscal 2020-21.^[1] While the nation waits for greater triumphs and achievements in the future, the government would be celebrating its achievements so far before grasping new opportunities. Clearly, a year down the line, Article 370 is already history and it no longer appears to be existing in people’s consciousness or in their daily conversation — except that it still lingers in the minds of political brokers and blackmailers.

Empowering the Region: The Ladakh Viewpoint

The abrogation of Article 370 and bifurcation of J&K was a dream come true for the people of Ladakh as they had been struggling for UT status since 1947. It was a watershed moment for Ladakh to have its long history of coercion and discrimination under J&K, corrected in one stroke. It meant restoration of the identity and dignity of Ladakh as a formidable Western Himalayan region of India, like Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

Since independence, the people of Ladakh have persistently resisted being a part of the unitary framework of J&K. But Jawaharlal Nehru refused to heed to the Ladakhi demand and left the people of the region to the mercy of Kashmiris, despite its territorial incompatibility. Nehru’s decision was based on his own wistful familial links with the Valley that not only undercut Ladakh’s interests but also the interests of the nation in several poignant ways.

For the past seven decades, Ladakh was virtually kept hostage to the likes of J&K, its instability, and to the mercy of the leadership in the Valley, where the Abdullah’s and Mufti’s held sway but had no emotional links whatsoever with Ladakh. The region remained neglected and exploited, despite its strategic importance and contribution of its people to the country’s defence. Josef Korbel (then UN staff representative in Kashmir and father of former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright) in his book “Danger Kashmir” (1951) detailed how Sheikh Abdullah fully exploited Kushok Bakula’s political ignorance and tricked the Lamas to surrender while frightening them of the threats coming from the Soviets and Chinese to their religion. Despite Kashmir’s dire record of tricks and mischief, Nehru and others continued to appease the Valley. In the late 1970s, Sheikh Abdullah even launched a nefarious “Greater Kashmir” concept to obliterate the identity of Ladakh. Now, with the UT status of Ladakh, the political marginalisation, neglect and apathy to which the people of the region were subjected, stands addressed.

Article 370 had allowed the Valley leadership to apply their well-known ploys while exploiting the simplicity and fragility of Ladakh, played on the local fault-lines i.e., splintering Ladakh along communal lines (Kargil versus Leh), pitting Muslims against Buddhists, causing dissension and factionalism within the Buddhists and Muslims, skilfully crushing people’s aspiration by assiduously co-opting ambitious local leaders into the Darbar in Srinagar. Therefore, politically, the August 5 development meant reversal of Nehru’s policy that supplemented Ladakh to Kashmir.

Article 370 also kept Ladakh backward and impeded its development. Despite its accounting for almost 60 percent of State’s territorial size, it suffered blatant economic and administrative discriminations. The disparity and discrimination against Ladakh finds mention in several State Commission Reports such as the Gajendragadkar (1967-68), Sikri (1979-80), Wazir (1982-83), and Singhal (1998) etc. The most convenient alibi cited for denying justice to Ladakh was its demographic deficiency. This flawed thinking led to Ladakh’s economic potentials not just being unrealised, but sadly, not even thought of. Nothing was done to harness the colossal Indus water resources of Zanskar, Suru, Dras and Shyok tributaries, the waters of which only benefited Pakistani farmers in Punjab and Sind. Only 5 percent of Ladakh’s arid land was irrigated. Article 370 impeded outside investments and tourism, the only viable source of income for the locals remained hostage to instability in the Valley. Poor connectivity, in any case, limited the flow of tourists to Ladakh. Poor connectivity also meant that Ladakh remained isolated; its vast borderland with scant population was left vulnerable to encroachment by external adversaries. The Kashmir-centric government displayed myopic leadership when it came to issues that concerned Ladakh, and they failed to check both China and Pakistan from eating into the state’s territory. Over 55 percent of the state’s 222,236 sq. km remain occupied either by China or Pakistan.

New Delhi’s tagging of Ladakh to J&K also underscored its lack of strategic clarity. The fact remains that the constitutional arrangement sought for J&K under Article 370 and Article 35A had essentially contained the seeds needed for India’s own destruction. The cumulative impact of those missteps has been getting clearer by the day. Ladakh is critical for India’s national security as without Ladakh, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would be sitting on the southern foothills of the Himalayas. It has hurt India’s strategic interests to have ignored Ladakh thus far, even failing to underpin its strategic value for India to gain direct access to the Tarim Basin and the Tibetan Plateau. It has cost the nation heavily, while keeping such a vast strategic frontier area in the hands of separatist-oriented Valley leadership.

Strategic Imperatives

Reordering J&K was not so much a choice as it was a strategic imperative. The Chinese forays into Gilgit-Baltistan, albeit under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) pretext, may not be without its historical claim over the region since the Tang Dynasty. China’s eventual control over Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) would have had immediate consequences for Ladakh. Ladakh’s unique geographical location should now offer the country a huge counter-offensive potential in terms of leveraging connectivity to the Eurasian region and to China. In any case, India needed to blunt the CPEC and to counter the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Therefore, it was essential to alter existing equations and provide growing opportunities for uplifting the Western Himalayan region of Ladakh in terms of integrating it with the national mainstream, promoting sustainable economy and tourism, besides environmental protection was paramount.

The myth of J&K as a unitary state had also long outlived its historical inviolability. It was never a functional state and has cost the country dearly. In any case, with Kashmir having bogged down in separatist mode, Ladakh risked sliding into disarray amid simmering anger among the people. The situation had become untenable in the post-Burhan Wani incident in July 2016 due to pro-azadi protests, hartals and shutdowns, which spread to other parts of the state.

Problems of Transition

UT was a long-time demand of Ladakh, predating even the Telangana movement, but no government at the Centre heeded to Ladakhi cause. Now, with Ladakh finally getting UT status, the people are upbeat and their confidence stands boosted. The decision has struck a deadly blow to Pakistan and has also called out China’s bluff, which has for long been eying Ladakh’s abundant land. As Ladakh celebrates the first anniversary of its separation from J&K, the people are jubilant. But there will be the inevitable teething problems of transition, and changes are afoot to address them despite multiple constraints. Some of the major challenges of transition are:

• This vast high-altitude region was hopelessly left behind due to long years of neglect. Industry here is non-existent and people lived on subsistence farming and government subsidies.
• The reorganisation of the State since October 2019 seemed to have taken enormous time to complete. The State bifurcation process involved an arduous task of dividing employees, assets from finance to buildings between the two UTs. And, there were problems of legal procedures to be streamlined.
• The formation of UT was followed by a long spell of harsh winter. Before it receded, the Covid-19 outbreak and prolonged lockdown played a sure spoilsport to start any development activity.
• The challenge now, is to put in place an effective administration in this climatically most hostile region. For example, arrangement of staffing and logistic seems a nightmare. Very few officials and professional seem to be opting for postings in Ladakh despite impressive packages of salaries and allowances offered by the government. As an interim measure some 118 officials from J&K have been brought on deputation to Ladakh to fill up the staff shortages.

As Ladakh remains cut off from the rest of the country for five to six months, fulfilling the basic needs of the people is never an easy task. In an interview given on the first anniversary of UT status, Shri RK Mathur, the Lieutenant Governor of Ladakh, RK Mathur said that the new UT administration had a daunting task during the winter months, but it resolutely addressed the challenges as under:^[2]

• Steady power supply was maintained and from February 2020, 24×7 power supply has been ensured. DG set (58) availability in remote unconnected areas was increased by about 6 to 8 hrs per day.
• Large no of additional water tankers were arranged to give the best ever drinking water supply of about 3.5 lac litres per day during winters.
• With the help of Indian Air Force, 415 MT of fresh vegetables and essential commodities were airlifted.
• A total of 2125 passengers and patients were moved in and out of Ladakh, primarily from Kargil, by the IAF during the Corona lockdown period as well as winters.
• About 1000 pilgrims who had gone to Iran/Iraq and were stranded there due to lockdown were brought back with the help of Govt. of India.
• 18 satellite phones were placed in different areas which get cut off during winters to ensure communication for evacuation of patients and availability of essential supplies.
• The Leh-Srinagar Highway (Zojila-pass) was opened on 11 April by BRO, almost one month before the normal time, giving great relief to the people. Similarly, Manali-Leh Highway was opened on 18 May by BRO one month ahead of schedule.
• Early opening of internal roads viz. Khaltsi-Lingshed, Kargil-Padum (Zanskar) etc. was ensured.

The LG further added that Covid-19 also severely impacted Ladakh, forcing the administration to devote substantial energy to tackle the pandemic. Two dedicate hospitals were set up and two RT-PCR machines were installed to increase testing. In addition, the administration had ensured that the repatriation process of the people of Ladakh after unlocking was seamless and quick and they are now working to contain the spread of the pandemic, while simultaneously taking up development activities.

Achievements of UT Ladakh

All Central Laws along with the required modifications and amendments are being aligned for UT Ladakh in order to ensure its smooth transition. The immediate challenge for the administration was to create a new administrative structure in Ladakh. This include UT Administration, a new Revenue Division, two Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Councils (LAHDC) with substantially increased powers (through an amendment originally done by J&K government and subsequently approved by the Parliament), and Panchayati Raj institutions at block and village levels. The challenge was to bring in synergy between these institutions so that they work harmoniously.

Measures initiated to make the administrative structure more effective pertain to empowering the LAHDCs, Empowering Blocks & Panchayats and through Development Drive/Initiatives. These are discussed below:

Empowering LAHDCs

LAHDC Act and its 2018 amendments was ratified by Parliament and continued. The Councils have executive powers over subjects such as science & technology, promotion and development of traditional Amchi System of Medicine, food, civil supplies and public distribution, rural development and power development etc. The post of Deputy Chairman was also created to be elected by its elected members from amongst themselves.

LAHDC in Leh and Kargil have been allocated highest ever budget of Rs. 232.41 crore each. In addition, funds amounting to Rs 2.5 crore to LAHDC Leh and Rs 3.5 crore to LAHDC Kargil were placed at their disposal for evacuation of stranded people during the corona lockdown period. The LAHDCs were authorised to identify beneficiaries under various schemes outside the District Plan, fill up vacant posts of Block Development Officers and also of technical staff of their engineering departments. A total of 188 engineers were outsourced and placed at the disposal of executing agencies of LAHDCs. The Assistant Commissioners Development and Block Development Officers of Rural Development Department have also been empowered to call tenders.

Empowering Blocks & Panchayats

In a major step towards empowering local self-government, the Administration of the UT ordered enhancement of monthly honorarium of Sarpanch(s) and fixation of monthly honorarium and allowances for the newly elected Chairpersons of Block Development Councils. Training capsules were also conducted for the Sarpanches, BDOs and MIS operators of Leh district regarding online payment systems and training programme for newly elected chairpersons of BDC was organised at National Institute of Rural Development at Hyderabad.

Administration of UT

Major administrative decisions and developmental initiatives encompassing a wide range of administrative activities such as licensing, regulation of real estate, census, wildlife, etc were constituted and notified. Proposal for constitution of Ladakh Administrative Service, Ladakh Police (Gazetted) Service, Ladakh Forest (Gazetted) Service have been finalised and 154 State Laws and 44 Central laws have been examined in detail and proposals for their adaptation have been sent to MHA. Ladakh Police has been separated from the erstwhile J&K police and has started functioning independently. Structural changes are also being carried out by the UT in industries, power sector, tourism, and police departments.

Development Initiatives and Achievement

Ladakh is no longer an ignored region. In a big jump, the Centre has allocated highest-ever budgetary allocation of Rs. 5,154 crores during 2019-20, followed by an allocation of Rs. 5,958 crores in 2020-21. In addition, the highest-ever non-lapsable budgetary allocation of Rs. 232.41 crore each has been made to the Hill Councils of Leh and Kargil.

As per the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019, the Government of India has announced a Special Development Package of about Rs. 50,000 crores. According to the LG, the UT of Ladakh has submitted its proposals for inclusion under Special Development Package. They focus primarily on development of infrastructure i.e. Health care facilities, roads, tunnels, transmission lines, higher education institutions and economic activities etc. Effective implementation of this package is expected to give a major boost to the prosperity of UT

The new UT administration seems now fully gearing up to implement the big-ticket economic projects, ramping up infrastructure, investment and addressing the employment issues, with the active support of the Centre. The Prime Minister has given an important direction for development, namely vision of Ladakh as a Carbon Neutral UT. In line with this vision, the UT is working with the Central Government on a number of initiatives in the fields of health care, traditional medicine, education, skilling, tourism, infrastructure development, development of indigenous industries in the agro sector, setting up polycarbonate green houses and a host of other schemes.

The UT administration’s initiatives have already seen great progress. Rs. 1000 per beneficiary as ex-gratia under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) has been disbursed to 6625 existing and newly sanctioned beneficiaries under NSAP. Under the Prime Minister Garib Kalyan Anna Yojna (PMGKAY), a total of 2158.41 MT Rice and 87.65 MT Pulses were distributed. In addition, 950 quintal of rice has been distributed as dry ration under mid-day meal scheme to students during lockdown period. Implementation of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ package has also started, and 786 MSME units have been sanctioned Rs. 25.4 crores of subsidised bank loans.

The list of achievements is long. Administration is now gearing up to launch a slew of development projects including those lying in limbo for decades. The Centre has made an allocation of Rs 80.69 crore for public works, Rs 54.07 crore for power, Rs 47.50 crore for tourism sector and Rs 52 crore for civil aviation among others. There are other key sectors which are getting a makeover to smoothen the transition. For the first year since transition, these are important milestones that call for celebration.

Future Prospects

In the years ahead UT Ladakh has to explore its economic potentials. Ladakh has vast vacant arid land. Leh district alone has 45,167 hectare of reporting area, out of which only 10,614 hectare (23%) is being brought under cultivation. The government has allocated Rs 83.38 crore this year for rural development. This should enable the administration to bring more areas under agriculture.

The region has colossal water resources that can be harnessed for agriculture and power generation.  The Indus water resources of Zanskar, Suru, Dras, Shyok, Galwan, Chip-Chap, Chang-Chemo and other tributaries — thus far benefited only by Pakistani farmers in Punjab and Sind. Ladakh need not opt for the industrial path. Its varied agro-climatic conditions should open up prospects for horticulture and floriculture industries, to grow organic apple, apricot and pear, walnuts, almond, grapes and temperate vine fruits. Ladakh is known for its organic vegetables due to high alluvial soil availability. Investors should jump for commercial farming of high-value items like lavender, saffron and vine fruits.

The region’s myriad medicinal herbs can be opened for both grinding and extraction. The fruit residue of sea-buckthorn, rich in protein and amino acids, is known for making juice. Prospects are high for setting up mineral water plants, anti-ageing, antioxidant drinks plants. Of course, fixing the old issues of environmental and legal challenges is never easy. Finding ways to smoothen them would take time.

Leh district has 1.2 lakh livestock population and over 35,000 Pashmina goats and sheep. Nomadic farming could be expanded. Better technological intervention could make the local wool and woven fabric a world-class product.

Boosting tourism could be a way forward to improve the local cash economy. According to the administration, tourism has made a significant contribution to Ladakh’s economy with a turnover of nearly Rs. 600 crore that benefits about 70 percent of Ladakh’s population. Tourist figures initially went up from a meagre 527 in 1974 to 3.27 lakh in 2018. But in 2019, a slide of over 50 percent in flow was witnessed. Like Kashmir, Ladakh too lost its tourism season this year. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Indo-China border tension has had a negative impact on Ladakh’s tourism industry.

Tourism remains unpredictable, conditioned to the security environment. The uncontrolled flow of visitors also hasn’t proved sustainable due to the fragile ecosystem. However, the Ladakh Tourism Department has been allocated a budget of Rs. 247 crore for the financial year 2020-21 under the Special Development Package of UT Ladakh. Besides, the Centre has approved Rs 52 crore for developing the airport terminal in Leh.

The administration seems all set revive the tourism industry once things start to normalise in the aftermath of the pandemic. Under Atma Nirbhar Bharat Package announced by Government of India, the administration is encouraging all hotels and other services industries to register as MSMEs. This has already assisted many of the worst affected to get moratorium and subsidised additional loans.

The UT administration is also exploring other options besides tourism. It is working on strengthening alternative livelihoods especially in agriculture and allied sectors that can make Ladakh self-sustainable, revitalising Ladakh’s traditional wisdom and practices related to agriculture, tapping the latent potential of sectors such horticulture, as well as medicinal and aromatic plants and bolster them with technological interventions. Focus is also being laid on developing animal resources, particularly pashmina goats. The intention is to develop the full value chain, from the harvesting of pashmina wool to the sale of pashmina products.

Industrialising Ladakh

The government is planning industrialising Ladakh in the renewable energy sector. According to the National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE), Ladakh’s wind power potential is immense at 100,000 megawatt (Mw). According to NIWE, Ladakh’s temporal variation holds an estimated potential of 5,311 Megawatt at a hub height of 50 meters. For example, at this height the wind speeds measured between 3.12 metre per second (Diskit site) to 6.60 mps (Chushul site). The potential goes up to 100,000 Mw at a height of 120 meters. A high level meeting was held in Leh in December 2019 that was attended by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, the Army, the Border Roads Organisation, the Ladakh Renewable Energy Development Agency and the National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE).

A study of the NIWE suggests that region holds tremendous promise for setting up commercial scale wind energy projects.^[3] The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) is exploring the possibilities of setting up Wind Power projects in Ladakh including setting up of wind masts for validation of wind resource and other issues.^[4] The potential areas of setting up wind masts are found in Chushul (Eastern Ladakh), Nubra and in Kargil. The Ministry is soon expected to invite the wind industry to put up wind farms in Ladakh.

Wind Solar Hybrid Industry

Ladakh has extremely high solar potential as well. Because of the clear air and more albedo, the potentials for power generation from solar plants is tremendous. The government has announced a mega protect of Rs 50,000 crore grid-connected solar photo-voltaic project to harness 7,500 MW of solar power. The proposed transmission corridor will transmit power from Pang in Ladakh to Kaithal in Haryana. In fact, the Ministry is envisaging promoting a combination of solar and wind plants in Ladakh that would optimise the transmission system. The solar power project is to be executed by SECI. Bid submission for the project is underway and site visits for the prospective bidders have been conducted.

The next focus should be on exploiting Ladakh’s huge hydro-power potentials within the provisions of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). Of the 1,000-MW power potential identified, very little has been exploited so far.

Connecting Ladakh

Due to high altitude terrain climatic condition the road and communication connectivity always remains a challenge in Ladakh. Recently, the Prime Minister inaugurated the ultra-modern 9.02 km long Atal Tunnel at Rohtang Pass, which provides all weather connectivity from Manali in Himachal Pradesh to Leh and reduces travel time by about five hours.^[5] The tunnel will spur economic activities of Ladakh, especially boost tourism and strengthen India’s border infrastructure.

After Rohtang, the government is focusing on building a 13.5 km-long tunnel at Shinku La that will provide the shortest, safer and the third alternative corridor to connect Ladakh with rest of the country. This is necessary because after Rohtang Pass the 475 – km-long Manali-Leh roads gets further blocked by Shinku La and three other passes. The alternative third connectivity is to build a road from Keylong to Leh via Darcha in Zanskar Valley – a distance of some 170 km from Manali. From Darcha, the road will have to cut across the Shinku La to reach Padum in Zanskar to move further towards Leh. This 444-km long Manali-Darcha-Padum-Nimmu-Leh road has been identified as the third strategic alternative to Ladakh in wake of the threat from Pakistan and China.

The BRO is now studying the feasibility of constructing a tunnel beneath the 13.5-km-long snow avalanche-prone Shinku La that will reduce the distance between Manali and Leh. A team led by the Managing Director (MD) of National Highway and Infrastructure Development Corporation limited (NHIDCL) has just visited Zanskar to inspect the progress of Shinku La tunnel work. The double lane road is under construction and likely to be completed by 2023.^[6] This is top priority of the government and the construction will be completed on a war footing. On completion of the Shinku La tunnel, the Manali-Kargil highway will remain open throughout the year, the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways said in a statement last week.^[7] Another blockbuster connectivity project is the construction of a 14.15-km bi-directional tunnel across Zoji-la that will provide all-year connectivity between Leh and Srinagar. The Centre has already envisaged a plan to connect Leh by rail. The 498-km line from Bilaspur to Leh via Manali is expected to cost Rs 22,831 crore.

More Aspirations – Demand for 6^th Schedule

A year down the line, Article 370 and association with J&K has already become a history in Ladakh. But now there are apprehension about the UT status coming without legal safeguards. Like in J&K, protection is an emotive issue in Ladakh as well. The key issues pertain to environmental protection, developmental challenges, identity, land and job protection. The expectation was that Ladakh will be covered under the 6^th Schedule, as applied to other ‘tribal areas’ in the Northeast. But that would have pushed Ladakh towards further isolation and underdevelopment. But the local population does fear getting marginalised, if outsiders seeking opportunities move into this peaceful Himalayan region. People are also fearful of losing jobs to outsiders.

Against this anxiety, some Ladakhi veteran leaders, on the eve of the first anniversary of the UT formation, have launched a People’s Movement for the 6^th Schedule for Ladakh. A delegation of its apex body recently met Home Minister Amit Shah and put forward their demand for constitutional safeguards to protect their land, jobs and culture. How such safeguards will materialise, remains to be seen.

Linked to this is the contentious issue of the status of the pre-existing governance body, the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC)-Kargil and LAHDC-Leh that functioned as a legislative body with financial powers to micromanage local planning. Even though the roles and powers of the two LAHDCs are clearly defined by law and leave no ambiguity, a clarification is needed with respect to their functioning and business rules under the new UT system. The polls for the council in Leh are due in October 2020.

Conclusion

The division of J&K was a political necessity because the status-quo had become untenable and was against the democratic aspirations of the people. Addressing the Ladakh issue therefore was to be taken purely on strategic consideration especially for laying the platform for long-term solution for Kashmir crisis as well as for nurturing the strategic utility of Ladakh for India’s national interest. The UT for Ladakh is a strategic move and could even become the kernel for boundary solution with China.

Clearly, Ladakh is on the path of getting empowered in every sense of its polity and economic development. In fact, the UT administration, it seems already has a draft vision document titled ‘Ladakh 2050’ ready. Among other things, the document aspires to make Ladakh the renewable energy capital of India. Similarly, through the development strategy, it aspires to achieve a carbon-neutral Ladakh. The empowerment of Ladakh is clearly underway and is geared to fulfil the rising expectations and aspirations of youth in Ladakh.

(Stobdan is former Indian ambassador to Kyrgyzstan and founder of the Ladakh International Centre. He is on the Advisory Council of Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs.)

^[1] https://www.businesstoday.in/union-budget-2020/news/budget-2020-sitharaman-allocates-rs-30757-crore-to-jk–rs-5958-crore-to-ladakh/story/395262.html

^[2] “Tourism is unpredictable, need to explore other sectors in Ladakh: RK Mathur”, August 6, 2020 at https://jknewsline.com/tourism-is-unpredictable-need-to-explore-other-sectors-in-ladakh-rk-mathur/Jknewsline 

^[3] “Ladakh has wind energy potential of 100,000 MW”, December 17, 2019 at https://www.evwind.es/2019/12/17/ladakh-has-wind-energy-potential-of-100000-mw/72557

^[4] “Govt invites wind industry to Ladakh”, December 13, 2019 at https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/policy/govt-invites-wind-industry-to-ladakh/article

^[5] “A peek inside the Atal Rohtang Tunnel, India Today Insight”,  August 24, 2020

^[6] “After Rohtang, focus now on Shinku La tunnel amid tension in Himalayas”, Times of India, September 28, 2020, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/after-rohtang-focus-now-on-shinku-la-tunnel-amid-tension-in-himalayas/articleshow/78346269.cms

^[7] https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/after-rohtang-focus-shifts-to-shinku-la-tunnel-between-ladakh-and-lahaul-120092700426_1.html

The decision of 5 August 2019, to abrogate Article 35-A and revoke the provisions of Article 370 have proven to be really empowering for the Jammu region. This happened first and foremost because Article 35-A discriminated against a certain group of people and with its abrogation, the inequity inherent in the said Article was done away with. With the revocation of special status, the Indian Constitution came into force, replacing the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir, 1956. The rights and privileges available to all Indian citizens, thus became applicable also to the people of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

Of the people who suffered from the discriminatory aspects of Article 35A, about 99 per cent lived in the Jammu Division of the erstwhile state. These groups of people were the West Pakistan Refugees (WPRs), Valmikis, Gorkhas and the women of the state who married outside J&K. Article 35A prohibited the above groups of people from becoming domiciles of the state and consequently, they were denied all the benefits that were available to the rest of the state subjects. In addition, Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRIs) and Urban Local Bodies (ULBs), though constituted, were powerless. Ironically, the Panchayati Raj Act, 1989, which had been enacted by the State of J&K, was the instrument used to disempower panchayats.^[1] With the state becoming a Union Territory, the provisions of the Indian Constitution became applicable to the newly constituted Union Territory and PRIs and ULBs now became empowered instruments of grassroots democracy, in line with the rest of the country.

Article 35A

Article 35 A was added to the Constitution of India by a Presidential Order of 14 May 1954.^[2] This amendment to the Indian Constitution was carried out without the approval of Parliament and without following procedures mentioned in Article 368. Unlike other amendments, it appears in the Constitution as an appendix and was not listed in the list of amendments either. Article 35A empowered the state of J&K to define who could be deemed a permanent resident of the state, and it further stated that no such law as enacted by the government of J&K shall be void on the grounds that it is inconsistent with or takes away or abridges any rights conferred on other citizens of India. Consequently, through Part III (6) of the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir, 1956,^[3] the permanent resident of the state was defined as under:

“Every person who is, or is deemed to be, a citizen of India under the provisions of the Constitution of India shall be a permanent resident of the State, if on the fourteenth day of May, 1954, (a) he was a state subject of class I or of class II, or (b) having lawfully acquired immovable property in the State, he has been ordinarily resident in the State for not less than ten years prior to this date” and (II) “any person who, before the fourteenth day of May, 1954 was a State Subject of class I or of class II and who, having migrated after the first day of March, 1947, to the territory – now included in Pakistan, returns to state under a permit for resettlement in the State or for permanent return issued by or under the authority of any law made by the State Legislature shall on such return be a permanent resident of the State”

Section 8 of the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir, 1956 gave the State Legislature the right to define Permanent Residents and Section 9 empowered the State Legislature to alter the definition of Permanent Residents. And this was used to discriminate against certain classes of people.^[4]

West Pakistan Refugees

The West Pakistan Refugees were those hapless Hindus, Sikhs, and Christians, who had come to J&K, after escaping from Sialkot and neighbouring areas of what became Pakistan in 1947. As stated earlier, Part III (6) of the Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir defined a state citizen as a person who on the fourteenth day of May, 1954, was a state subject and has been ordinarily resident in the State for not less than ten years prior to this date. This clause was deliberately included to leave out those ill-fated people, who had to leave their homes due to the riots that had broken out post the partition of the country. By arbitrarily imposing a cut off date of entry to the state as 14 May 1944, all the refugees who streamed into the state post partition, were denied domicile status. It bears mention here, that all such refugees who came to Punjab and other states of India, were made domiciles of the respective states that they had settled in. Thus, a gross injustice was done to those people who were forced out of their homes due to the post partition riots and who moved to the state of J&K.

Post the partitioning of the country, 5,764 families had been registered in 1947 in the state of J&K. They had the right to vote in the national elections as citizens of India, but they could not vote in the state elections as they were not granted state domicile status. The same discrimination carried over to their progeny. They were thus deprived of all the privileges that accrued to state domicile subjects which resulted in discrimination in education, employment, land ownership and in many other areas. With the abrogation of special status, all these people, have now become domiciles of J&K overnight. As a large number of such people belonged to the weaker sections of society, with at least 75% of them being Scheduled Castes (SCs), they now also have access to all central government schemes which provides for their welfare.

Valmikis

The story of the Valmikis also points to the great degree of discrimination and humiliation heaped upon this group of people. In 1957, following a strike by the sanitation workers in the state of J&K, more than 277 families of Valmikis were brought in from Gurdaspur and Amritsar districts of neighbouring Punjab, to work in the state. They were brought in by the government of that time, with a promise that they would be made state domiciles. However, they were eligible only for jobs of safai karamcharis and were not given Permanently Resident (PR), despite being in J&K for 62 years. While the children of these safai karamcharis could get admission in government run colleges and professional institutes, they could only apply for jobs as sweepers. Now, such discriminatory procedures have been done away with. The Valmikis can now apply for state domicile certificates and the same will be given to all the applicants. A 71 year old lady of the community, Ms Deepoo Devi became the first recipient of the domicile certificate in July 2020. The J&K administration is speeding up the process to grant such certificates to all eligible persons, thus meeting the long pending demand of the people.^[5] With this, the Valmikis are now empowered.

Gorkhas

The valiant Gorkhas had been living in J&K for generations, fighting as soldiers in the state forces organised by successive Dogra Maharajas. Despite that, they were denied any rights in J&K but all that stands changed now. Many of them have got domicile certificate made and for others these are in the pipeline.

Gender Equality

Article 35-A was interpreted and implemented in a blatantly gender discriminatory manner in J&K, clearly against the spirit embodied in the Preamble of the Indian Constitution. It also militated against various gender equality clauses of this supreme law of the land. Once Permanent Resident (PR) women got married outside J&K, their rights were severely curtailed. All this has now changed and women across the Union Territory will have the same rights as their male counterparts. This is truly liberating and a major step towards gender parity in J&K.

Grassroots Democracy

The PRIs stood disempowered as they were denied funds for carrying out development activities. This is evident from the fact that for the period 2011 to 2016, the panchayats received just Rs 1 lakh as a one time grant. This translated into Rs 20,000 per panchayat per annum. In contrast, in October 2020, each panchayat received a sum of Rs 10 lakh. The Panchayats and other institutions will now be receiving yearly grants to carry out development activities. A new phase of B2V (Back To Village) programme was also started on October 2, the birthday of Mahatma Gandhi.

For the very first time, elections have been held to the Block Development Councils (BDCs), and this has thrown up a new crop of leaders. The fact that the MLAs of the erstwhile state had little respect for the Panchayats is indicated by the fact that while the Legislative Assembly had a tenure of six years, the panchayats had a tenure of only five years. The panchayats were, in fact, treated merely as “necessary evils” to get funds from the Centre under rural development head. The same can be said for the ULBs. Decentralisation of political power in a tiered fashion, as envisaged in the Indian Constitution, was something that was missing altogether. Now, grassroots democracy has started taking wings.

Genesis of Disempowerment and Fragmentation of Kashmir Politics

If we want to discuss empowerment of the Jammu region, we should perhaps go to the root cause of disempowerment of the region. This disempowerment can be traced back to Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah getting formal command of J&K on 5 March 1948, when he was made “Interim Administrator” by Maharaja Hari Singh. After that day, the Sheikh did everything possible to undermine the Maharaja and end the role of the monarch in the new set-up. Instead of seeking accommodation and power-sharing, Sheikh virtually became despotic because of the unstinted support of Jawaharlal Nehru. Since then, the top executive post has always been held by a person from the Kashmir Division, except for a brief period from 2 November 2005 to 7 July 2008, when Ghulam Nabi Azad, who hails from Doda district of the Jammu region, was the Chief Minister of J&K. This indicates the hegemony exercised by Kashmir over the rest of the state.

On 2 November 2002, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) with only 16/87 MLAs became the CM of the state. He headed a coalition government in which the Congress had 20 MLAs. Besides, several independent legislators also supported this government. Out of these 20, a majority, 15, belonged to the Jammu region. With many legislators hailing from Jammu, it became imperative to give them some weightage in the power structures. Some of them were made ministers, while some others were adjusted in government-controlled corporations. This happened mainly because of the fragmentation of the Kashmir polity.  The PDP ended the unchallenged hegemony of the National Conference (NC) in 2002. After that, the results of the assembly elections in 2008 and 2014 also led to coalition governments.

In 2014, when the assembly elections were held, the BJP got 25/37 seats in the Jammu region. A rebel BJP candidate, Pawan Gupta from Udhampur, also pledged support to it, besides two MLAs of the Sajad Lone-led People’s Conference (PC). Overall, it thus had 28 MLAs on its side, Incidentally the same number of legislators, 28, which the PDP had. Despite that, somehow an unequal power-sharing arrangement was finalised by the PDP and the BJP.

Intriguing as it seems now, rotational CM-ship, which had a precedent in the 2002 coming together of the PDP and the Congress, was not worked out between the new coalition partners. Under the deal they finalised, Mufti was to remain CM for all six years of this government. That was not to be as Mufti’s death, due to illness in January 2016, drove a wedge deeper between the two parties. Mehbooba Mufti succeeded her father some months later and the coalition partners kept drifting apart. In June 2018, the coalition government of Mehbooba came to an end when the BJP withdrew support.

Drifting Apart and Unfair Delimitation of Constituencies

Since March 1846 Amritsar Treaty, Jammu and Kashmir have remained together as a political unit. The two regions however lack organic unity as they are geographically, culturally and socially poles apart. From March 1846 to August 1947, the power remained with the Hindu Dogra rulers from Jammu. In fact, Ladakh was conquered by the Dogra king Gulab Singh much earlier than Kashmir became a part of his empire. After August 1947, Kashmir fast emerged in a pivotal position and became the power centre in the state which had three distinct geographical regions; Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. Kashmir became so powerful that it marginalised the other two regions in all spheres of life, often by use of less than fair means.

The most fundamental reason for the political hegemony that Kashmir had over Jammu and Ladakh regions was the unfair delimitation of constituencies. Both Legislative Assembly constituencies, as also the Lok Sabha segments, were carved out in a manner to undermine both Jammu and Ladakh. The dice was loaded in favour of Kashmir leading to its victory in the political domain. In the Legislative Assembly of the state of Jammu and Kashmir, out of 87 segments, 46 were located in Kashmir, 37 in Jammu and 4 in Ladakh. The constituencies were carved out on the basis of the Representation of People’s Act, 1951, both for the Legislative Assembly and for the Lok Sabha. Major yardsticks used were (i) Population (ii) Geographical Compactness (iii) Nature of Terrain (iv) Facilities of Communication and such like considerations.

An analysis based on the above factors indicates that the delimitation was not correctly carried out. Let us examine data based on population and area in respect of Jammu and Kashmir divisions. In terms of area, Jammu with a spread of 26,292 sq. km is 1.648 times larger than Kashmir, which has an area of 15, 948 sq. km. In terms of the electorate, there seems to be a balance. During 2008 assembly elections, there were 6,345,380 voters in J&K (excluding Ladakh region). Of these, 3,084,717 were in Jammu and 3,260,663 in Kashmir. Thus, population wise, the electorate was nearly equal, with Kashmir having 51.38 percent and Jammu having 48.62 percent of the electorate.

Perhaps we need to understand the concepts of gerrymandering (American) and rotten boroughs (British) more thoroughly in the context of J&K to get an insight into how Kashmir’s hegemony was created and how it has continued for several decades. Gandhinagar of Jammu district having 1,52,100 voters was the largest assembly segment in 2008. In Kashmir, the largest assembly segment was Batmaloo of Srinagar district with just 1,02,759 voters, a whopping 49,341 voters lesser than Gandhinagar. During 2008 elections, the smallest assembly segment in the Jammu region was Bani in Kathua district having 37,197 voters. In the Kashmir region, the smallest segment was Gurez having only 15,330 voters. The comparative data of most assembly elections held in J&K of 1983, 1987, 1996, 2002, 2008 and of 2014, is readily available. The data of even earlier elections is available and the results are almost always identical.

It stands to reason then, that both the Jammu and Kashmir regions should have had an equal number of seats in the legislative assembly. By giving Kashmir 46 assembly segments and Jammu only 37, great injustice was done to the latter in terms of political representation. The allotment was totally disproportionate, grossly unfair and deliberately skewed in favour of Kashmir. This needs to be corrected now.   

 

   

 

 

 

Lok Sabha Segments

The statistical comparisons of Lok Sabha segments of the Jammu region with those located in Kashmir, also yield similar results as seen in the segments in case of Legislative Assembly constituencies. It seems different yardsticks were used for carving out the Lok Sabha segments in the two regions, much as if the two regions were not part of the same state! Incidentally, the Lok Sabha segments in J&K were not delimited by the Justice Kuldeep Singh Commission for delimitation which was constituted in 2002. As analysed above for the assembly segments, it follows then that both Kashmir and Jammy regions of the state should have had equal representation in the Lok Sabha segments. But Kashmir was given three Lok Sabha seats and Jammu only two. This was discriminatory.

Conclusion

 The above few paragraphs clearly demonstrate that the voters of the Jammu region have been treated unequally when compared to voters in the Kashmir region. Such treatment is contrary to the mandate of Articles 81 and 82 of the Constitution of India and has led to the voters in the Jammu region being severely under-represented. It is apparent that artificial disparities were created deliberately to give political hegemony to the Kashmir region. All this is founded on no intelligible criteria save bias against the Jammu region. In addition, the fact that no delimitation of the Lok Sabha segments of J&K was done whenever this happened all over India indicates that this was meant to perpetuate the disparities.

A fresh delimitation of the constituencies needs to be done in an equal and equitable manner to address the above disparities. Towards this end, in February 2020, the Centre has begun the process of delimitation of assembly segments in J&K, and the process once completed is expected to pave the way for Assembly Elections in the Union Territory. ^[6] 

As of now, the Union Law Ministry has constituted the Delimitation Commission which is headed by former Supreme Court judge, Justice Ranjana Prakash Desai. The Commission is mandated to redraw Lok Sabha and assembly constituencies of the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. All five Lok Sabha MPs from the Union Territory have been nominated as Associate Members. Consequently, the Delimitation Commission has sought information from all the 20 district commissioners in the Union Territory, ^[7] which indicates that the process is underway.

It will be in the fitness of things that Jammu gets its legitimate share in power structures at all levels. Be it panchayats and urban local bodies (ULBs), or the Legislative Assembly, or representation in the Lok Sabha, things seem destined to change, and change for the better.

(Sant Kumar Sharma is a Senior Journalist based in Jammu. He has written books on Article 370, Delimitation and on Indus Waters Treaty.)

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ostensibly moved closer to realising their dream of heading a new Islamic Caliphate with the Turkish parliament’s decision on July 10, 2020 to reconvert Hagia Sophia into a mosque.^[i] The aim is to preside over a Grand Turkey, reminiscent of Ottoman glory, by 2023, the centenary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic by Mustafa Kemal Pasha (Ataturk). The latter, ironically, crafted a secular State and turned Hagia Sophia (and other prominent churches that had been converted into mosques) into a museum in 1934. Hagia Sophia was built by the Orthodox Church in the fourth century, after razing a temple of the Classical Greek faith that was then dominant in the region. In 1453, the Ottomans conquered Constantinople (now Istanbul) and Sultan Mehmet II changed Hagia Sophia into a mosque.

The quest to head a caliphate began when Ataturk abolished the caliphate and exiled the last Ottoman Caliph in 1924. The early contenders were King Fuad of Egypt and the tribal leader Ibn Saud. Then, Pakistan entered the race with Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan hosting a World Muslim Conference in 1951. However, in 1952, Gamal Abdel Nasser staged a coup in Egypt and became the inspirational leader of the Muslim world when he nationalised the Suez Canal in 1956 and staved off a British-Israeli attack; but Egyptian ambitions collapsed when Israel routed the Egyptian and Syrian armies in 1967. Finally, the Saudi King Faisal won the leadership round, thanks to the financial bonanza that followed the oil crisis of 1973. But, by the twenty-first century, the turmoil in most Muslim nations refuelled Turkey’s desire to head a caliphate, comprising mostly of non-Arab Muslim nations.^[ii]

It remains to be seen if Erdoğan will pursue the unfulfilled Ottoman dream to capture Jerusalem; his quest to dominate the Middle East has already begun. On a visit to Pakistan in February 2020, Erdoğan attacked US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Jerusalem as a “plan of annexation, occupation and demolition”.^[iii] The proposal included a two-state solution to end the Palestine-Israel conflict, and was tilted in favour of Israel. Erdoğan asserted, “Jerusalem is our red line… we will not leave Haram al-Sharif (Al Aqsa mosque) to the mercy of the occupying Israeli administration”.^[iv]

The move caused dismay in Russia (Orthodox). Sergey Gavrilov, head of Russia’s State Duma Committee for the Development of Civil Society, Public Issues and Religious Associations, urged Moscow to negotiate with Turkey for control of at least seven churches that once belonged to the Orthodox Church. In fact, Duma members demanded that Moscow seek control of Orthodox farms, pilgrim centres, and hotels, which were “built by Russians and belonged to [Russia] before the revolution”. Officially, the Kremlin said that the former cathedral “has sacred meaning to all Orthodox believers,” but its status is “an internal affair of Turkey”.^[v] However, on August 21, 2020, the Byzantine-era Chora church (declared a museum in 1945) was reconverted into the Kariye Mosque. There is anxiety over the fate of its icons after Hagia Sophia installed curtains to screen an image of Mary and infant Jesus.^[vi]

Muslim Brotherhood 

Syrian President Bashar al Assad, speaking to Russia-24 TV in March 2020, revealed Erdoğan’s links with the Muslim Brotherhood: “At a point in time, the United States decided that secular governments in the region were no longer able to implement the plans and roles designated to them… They decided to replace these regimes with Muslim Brotherhood regimes that use religion to lead the public… This process of “replacement” started with the so-called Arab Spring. Of course, at the time, the only Muslim Brotherhood-led country in the region was Turkey, through Erdoğan himself and his Brotherhood affiliation”.^[vii]

To understand the dangers posed by the Muslim Brotherhood, it is pertinent to review its origins and quest for Islamic Caliphate, its rabidly anti-Jewish theology and links with Nazi Germany, a relationship that the United States and the West glossed over while pursuing their post-World War II agenda for global dominance.

The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna (born October 14, 1906, in Egypt), son of a local imam. Launched just four years after Kemal Ataturk abolished the Caliphate, the Brotherhood focused on indoctrination of its recruits. It professed charity and social service, but its inner agenda was to seek power and reestablish the Caliphate and Islamic rule over Egypt and the entire Muslim world. It taught that, “Allah is our goal; The Prophet is our Leader; The Qur’an is our Constitution; Jihad is our Way; Death in the service of Allah is the loftiest of our wishes”.^[viii]Hassan al-Banna was a Freemason; British intelligence possibly had a role in creating the Brotherhood.

Hassan Al-Banna revived the Assassins Cult (hashshāshīn) of the twelfth century Crusades, and called it, “Art of Death” (fann al-mawt) or “Death is Art” (al-mawt fann), a martyrdom to be revered, based on the Qur’an. From the 1990s, this cult inspired all Sunni Islamic terrorist organizations, especially Al Qaeda and Hamas. Al-Banna borrowed much of his philosophy from Adolf Hitler, whom the Brotherhood contacted in the 1930s. Hitler’s autobiography, Mein Kampf(My Struggle), was translated into Arabic and published under the title My Jihad. Al-Banna had copies of the Nazi anti-Semitic newspaper, Der Sturmer, adapted to the Arab world. The Brotherhood’s assassination bureau (al-jihaz al-sirri) was headed by Hassan’s brother, Abd Al-Rahman Al-Banna, and trained and funded by Nazi agents from Germany.

Haj Amin el-Husseini, top Brotherhood leader in Palestine, was born in Ottoman Jerusalem in 1893, and is regarded as the father of Arab terrorism. On joining the Ottoman army, he was assigned to the Forty-Seventh Brigade in the city of Smyrna and participated in the Armenian genocide in which 1.5 million Christians were massacred by Turkish troops. He became a staunch advocate of Islamic Caliphate.^[ix] The Palestinian gained importance because of the Balfour Declaration of 1917. On January 3, 1919, Zionist leader Chaim Weizmann and Arab leader Emir Feisal, son of the King of Hejaz, agreed to execute the Balfour Declaration that mooted “the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people”, while protecting non-Jewish communities. After the accord was signed in 1920, riots broke out between Jews and Arabs; 47 Jews died and dozens were injured. Al-Husseini was sentenced to ten years’ imprisonment in absentia, and fled to Syria. He was pardoned by British High Commissioner Herbert Samuel and made Grand Mufti of Jerusalem in 1921.

In July 1922, the League of Nations unilaterally approved the British Mandate over Palestine, to create a Jewish homeland, as promised in the Balfour Declaration. After the Arab Revolt in 1936, al-Husseini raised armed militias to attack the Jews, who retaliated, forcing the British to deploy troops to restore order. Al-Husseini was removed from office in late 1937; fearing arrest, he escaped to Lebanon and finally went to Germany.

In meeting with Hitler in November 1941, he said the Arabs and Nazis had common enemies: Jews, English, and Russians. At Schutzstaffel commander Heinrich Himmler’s suggestion, Hitler asked him to recruit Bosnian Muslims; the 20,000-strong 13th Waffen Mountain Division became first non-German SS division.^[x] Hitler tweaked the Nazi dogma of racial purity to accommodate the Brotherhood by declaring al-Husseini an honorary Aryan and Bosnian Muslims as pure Aryan. Muslim Brotherhood leaders in Berlin worked directly with Himmler to create militias to execute Jews and other enemies of the Reich. In the 1950’s, the CIA “discovered” the Brotherhood’s anti-communist leanings and began a long relationship, initially supported by the Saudi Monarchy. Osama bin Laden belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood.^[xi]

The Brotherhood fought the Communist resistance forces in Bosnia and in seven other Nazi campaigns in the Balkans. They helped to decimate the Bosnian Jews; 12,000 of the 14,000-strong community were murdered. The surviving members of the Division surrendered to the British in May 1945; ten were executed for war crimes. At the Nuremberg trials, Adolf Eichmann’s deputy, Dieter Wisliceny, testified that al-Husseini was one of the main actors in the Holocaust.^[xii]However, al-Husseini returned unmolested to Cairo in 1946.

Historian Mehnaz M. Afridi notes that the involvement of Muslims in the genocide of Jews affected Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and Libya under the fascist, Nazi, and Vichy regimes, though Jews and Muslims also cooperated in this traumatic era. Algerian writer Boualem Sansal (The German Mujahid, 2009) studied the complexity of the Holocaust and Islamic fundamentalism, including stories of Muslim saviours.^[xiii] There is historical documentation of Muslims saving Jews in Albania, Morocco, Turkey, Iran, Kosovo, Sarajevo, and Tangiers. In fact, Albania (70 percent Muslim and 30 percent Christian) saved all its Jewish citizens during the Holocaust; Turkey rescued Jews who were citizens of the Ottoman Empire.

The Balfour Declaration and Nazi propaganda fuelled anti-Semitism in Arab lands during World War II. In 1950, Sayyid Qutb, who would emerge as the Brotherhood’s leading ideologue, accused Jews of “evil-doing) (Our Struggle with the Jews). He was executed in 1966.^[xiv] From the 1950s to the 1980s, the wars with Israel and migration of Arab Jews to Europe, the United States, and Israel increased tensions, and an era of Holocaust denial began. Many Arabs saw the Holocaust as a war-time event that was exaggerated to gain sympathy for Israel, as it took place in Europe, by Europeans, while the Palestinians paid the price.^[xv]

Hamas was created in December 1987, as the Brotherhood’s armed wing in Palestine. The Hamas Covenant of 1988 blames Jews for causing World War I and II and repeats European anti-Semitic theories. Its Article Eleven states, “the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up.” The contemporary Muslim Brotherhood has not disowned the anti-Semitic views of past leaders or dissociated from Hamas. Addressing huge crowds in Tahrir Square on February 23, 2011, Sheik Yusuf al-Qaradawi exhorted capturing Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and urged the Egyptian military to open Rafah border with the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip to provide aid to the Palestinians.^[xvi] Al-Qaeda, Islamic Jihad and ISIS also derive from the Brotherhood.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi was sworn in as Egypt’s first democratically elected president on June 30, 2012. However, neglecting the country’s economic crisis, Morsi pushed through a new constitution that gave him absolute powers, allowed clerics to interfere in the law-making process, and took away the legal rights of minority groups. Protests broke out in July 2013, and finally the army intervened under General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi …^[xvii]

Erdoğan: Islamist Ataturk

Erdoğan, who ruled Turkey as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014 and as president since 2014, is seeking recognition as an “Islamist Atatürk”. His political views were shaped by Necmettin Erbakan (1926–2011), founder of many Turkish Islamist parties and author of an Islamist manifesto Millî Görüş (“National Vision”, 1969). Erbakan was briefly Prime Minister of Turkey in 1996-7. Once he felt that the quest for full membership of the European Union was futile, Erdoğan became overt in his ambition to resurrect the glory of the Ottoman Empire and be recognised as the caliph, or a caliph, of the Muslim world. The European Union declared Turkey as a candidate country in 1999, but sustained obstacles irked Erdoğan even as regional developments diminished his desire for Western acceptance and Riyadh’s falling economic stature boosted his ambitions.

The lure of the Caliphate can be understood from Turkey’s national flag: when the Muslim Turkic armies of Central Asia conquered Anatolia, they added the latter’s crescent and star to their plain red flags. The Turkish flag adopted in 1936 is simply the 1844 Ottoman flag. No other Islamic country has the crescent and star; in 1947, Pakistan emulated the Turkish flag, using a green background.

A schism is discernible between the Arab States formally led by Saudi Arabia and the non-Arab States led by Turkey. Erdoğan had welcomed the victory of Mohamed Morsi in Egypt in 2012 and was upset when Morsi was overthrown. Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi banned the Muslim Brotherhood and executed several leaders; many fled to Turkey. As Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain also banned the Muslim Brotherhood for trying to overthrow their monarchies, a geopolitical fault line emerged in the Arab world. Turkey is supported by Malaysia, Pakistan, Qatar, and a beleaguered Iran.

Despite having cordial relations with Assad, Erdoğan supported the Sunnis against Assad in the civil war, and ruined relations with Egypt, Israel and other states in the Middle East and Europe. By February 2018, he asserted, “The Republic of Turkey is a continuation of the Ottoman Empire… Of course, the borders have changed. Forms of government have changed… But the essence is the same, soul is the same, even many institutions are the same”. Admirers already see him as a ‘caliph’ (“successor” in Arabic, to the Prophet) and shadow of God on Earth.^[xviii]

As rotating president of the OIC, he led the protest against Israel’s killing of Palestinian activists in 2018. In October 2018, the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul provided an opportunity to embarrass Riyadh, and Ankara slowly released evidence that Khashoggi was killed and dismembered by a hit team sent by Riyadh.

In November 2018, Erdoğan’s close advisors hosted a meeting in Istanbul of Islamists from 28 countries (including Russia, India, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, Malaysia and Kazakhstan) to promote the idea of an Islamic grouping led by the Turkish president by 2023. The Muslim Brotherhood’s international network was tapped to create proxies across the world.^[xix] Erdoğan’s close confidant Nureddin Nebati said the real purpose of the “Islamic Union Congress” was to convey to the Islamic world that Turkey is offering Erdoğan as imam to lead all Muslims. He compared the Turkish president to the lead bead in the Islamic tespih (prayer beads used by Muslims to recite and count their prayers).

At the end of a three-day marathon, the conclave announced that it aims to create a super Islamic Bloc encompassing 60 countries and 1.6 billion Muslims with 12.8 per cent of the world’s land. It would control 55.5 per cent of the world’s oil reserves and 64.1 per cent of natural gas resources. The conclave was partnered by the International Union of Muslim Scholars (IUMS), a Muslim Brotherhood-linked body and brainchild of Yusuf al-Qaradawi; its general secretary, Ali Muhiuddin Qara Daghi, addressed the meeting. The IUMS is listed as a terrorist group by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain.

Erdoğan revealed his caliphate ambitions in October 2014, but the failed coup of July 15, 2016 and referendum of April 16, 2017, gave him the opening he needed. Erdoğan was warned about the coup by Russian President Vladimir Putin and not by his own intelligence service or military, or NATO’s Communications and Information Agency, or even the US Intelligence agencies. As forces loyal to him scrambled to defeat the coup, Erdoğan sent text messages to Turkish cellphone users to come to the streets to defend their nation. Three hundred Turks died that night.^[xx]

Erdoğan blamed Sunni spiritual leader Fethullah Gülen (based in Pennsylvania, US) for the coup, and ties with Washington became strained when the United States refused to extradite him. Intelligence sources said that if Gülen had been involved, the NSA would have picked up some signs. However, Erdoğan declared a state of emergency and assumed the power to rule by decree. Later, the referendum allowed him Erdoğan to stay in office until 2029, or longer, due to a loophole in the constitutional amendments, and gave him enormous powers.

Ankara and Tehran sent food and essential supplies to Qatar in June 2017 after Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain, blockaded the country for funding terrorism and the Muslim Brotherhood. Riyadh demanded that Qatar expel Turkey from its air force base.

Erdoğan’s moves have complicated matters in the Islamic world. Washington, Moscow and Beijing have interests in the Middle East. Turkey is still a NATO State, and the only NATO member in the Middle East and Asia. Though Erdoğan professes concern for all Muslim causes (Palestine, Yemen, Kashmir, Rohingya, and Uighur), his focus is on non-Arab countries (Iran, Afghanistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan) and Muslims of non-Arab nations (India, Myanmar). India’s radical cleric Sheikh Salman Nadwi, who supported late Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Zakir Naik, has often been fêted in Turkey. However, the need for closer economic ties with Beijing led Ankara to agree to extradite Enver Turdi, a Uighur who fled Xinjiang in 2014, and quietly deporting several Uighurs.^[xxi]

Libya

The Muslim Brotherhood lost two nations after Mohamed Morsi was overthrown in Egypt (July 2013) and Omar al-Bashir in Sudan (April 2019). To establish himself as regional hegemon, Erdoğan in December 2019 signed a military cooperation pact with the UN-recognised regime of Fayez Mustafa al-Sarraj in Tripoli (Government of National Accord or GNA), to ward off the challenge by Gen. Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), based in oil-rich Tobruk. Libya has been ravaged by tribal wars since the assassination of Muammar al-Qaddafi in October, 2011. Gen. Haftar is seeking to end the division of the country, backed by Russia, UAE and Jordan.

In May 2020, Turkey helped the GNA destroy LNA’s Watiya air base, including a Russian Pantsir-1 battery, and takeover the strategic base. When Russia moved six warplanes from Syria to Libya, Erdoğan threatened to bring Turkish warplanes to bomb Haftar’s troops. Simultaneously, he urged Algeria’s newly-elected president Abdelmadjid Tebboune (who depends on unofficial backing from the Algerian Muslim Brotherhood) to sign a defence pact with the GNA regime.

On June 7, 2020, a Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship, Cirkin, sailed from Turkey to the Libyan port of Misrata, accompanied by three Turkish warships. Fearing that arms were being smuggled to help al-Sarraj in violation of a UN arms embargo, a Greek (NATO) helicopter tried to board Cirkin, but was denied permission by the Turkish warships. A French (NATO) frigate, Courbet, was also rebuffed and the Cirkin landed in Libya.

On the weekend of July 18, 2020, Turkey’s Defence Minister Hulusi Akar met Qatari Emir, Prince Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, to discuss moving Qatar-trained Somali jihadist fighters to Libya, for an attack on Sirte. Erdoğan sent Turkish troops with drones, military vehicles, and thousands of Syrian mercenaries from Faylak al-Sham (The Syrian Legion), a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate, to strengthen al-Sarraj. Should Algeria join al-Sarraj, Erdoğan would have tilted the balance of power in the region, creating insecurity in North African nations, especially Egypt. This will also affect European, especially southern European, navigation in the Mediterranean and offshore oil projects in between.

Angered at Turkey signing a maritime delimitation agreement with the al-Sarraj regime, thereby intensifying disputes over potential offshore oil and gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean, Egypt and Greece signed an agreement on August 6, 2020, defining an exclusive economic zone between the two countries.^[xxii] Interestingly, Palestine has indicated a desire to cooperate with Ankara in developing the Gaza marine gas deposit, 36 km off the Gaza coast and believed to have reserves of 31 billion cubic meters, which has not been explored due to persistent Israeli-Palestinian clashes.^[xxiii]

Previously, in May 2020, at a virtual meeting with the foreign ministers of Greece, Cyprus, UAE and France, Egypt launched an alliance to confront Turkish moves in Libya and the Mediterranean. The alliance said it would challenge Turkish moves in Cyprus’s territorial waters, where Turkey has been carrying out “illegal” drilling operations. Berating Turkey’s military pact with al-Sarraj, it urged Ankara to stop sending foreign fighters from Syria to Libya.^[xxiv] France’s role in the alliance will be critical as it is a member of the European Union and can help in imposing sanctions on Turkey to protect Cyprus. Prof Tariq Fahmy, Cairo University, observed that being a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, France can also veto any decision in favour of Turkish moves in Libya. French President Emmanuel Macron supported Gen. Haftar when they met on March 9, 2020, in Paris.

Malaysia

The then Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad hosted a four-day summit of Muslim leaders in Kuala Lumpur (December 18-21, 2019), to discuss problems facing the Muslim world.^[xxv] The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, attended. Indonesian vice president Dr. Ma’ruf Amin and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan dropped out at the last minute, in deference to Saudi wishes.

The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim, criticised “armed militias that commit terrorist acts,” and “the use of methods of force, blockade, starvation and dictation of opinions,” a reference to the Saudi role in the Yemeni civil war and the Saudi-led land, sea and air blockade against Qatar from 2017. President Erdoğan said the UN Security Council had no Muslim presence and is “way past its expiry date” as the world is larger than its five permanent members. He urged Muslim countries to trade in their own currencies, a suggestion backed by Mahathir, who mooted a return to the gold standard.

Mahathir said the Islamic world is plagued with “fratricidal wars, civil wars, failed governments and many other catastrophes”. Many nations are accused of authoritarianism and disregard for human rights, and not a single Muslim nation ranks as a developed country despite immense wealth. The summit, to be called the Perdana Dialogue from 2020, was exploratory and discussed broad issues of governance, culture, security, trade (gold and barter trade to avoid economic sanctions), and technology; its evolution merits watching.

The summit avoided the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar, Islamic State, Kashmir, Uighur’s in Xinjiang, the strife in Syria and Yemen. However, Malaysia continues to host the radical Islamist preacher, Zakir Naik, and has given him permanent resident status.

Iranian President Rouhani urged Muslim nations to enter preferential trade agreements using local currencies and to create a special mechanism for banking and financial cooperation. Reeling from US sanctions that make it difficult to get Western insurers to cover Iranian exports, including oil, Rouhani proposed a transport insurance mechanism exclusively for Muslim nations: “The Muslim world should be designing measures to save it from the domination of the United States dollar and the American financial regime”.^[xxvi] Entrepreneur and artificial intelligence expert Igor Ashmanov said Russia being neither Eastern nor Western could offer Muslim nations lessons in technology and cyber-security.

Pakistan

Pakistan hosts a plethora of jihadi groups to pursue its domestic and foreign policy objectives. Since 2012 at least, the ISI has been laundering money from a small Italian town, Brescia.^[xxvii] The Finance Police in Udine, Italy, uncovered a money laundering system (hawala) behind a defunct internet point. The money was mainly sent to Afghanistan and Pakistan by citizens of those countries, but those citizens did not have any ‘official’ source of income, and the owners of the ‘ghost’ internet point were Pakistanis.^[xxviii] The probe exposed a network of money transfers often linked with shops unconnected to financial exchanges (hairdressers or grocery stores).

The value of the irregular transactions was over €8 million. The suspects included the head of the Madina Trading agency in Corso Garibaldi, Brescia, where cell phones used in the 2008 Mumbai bombings were activated and money sent to India. Interestingly, the number of Pakistani immigrants in Brescia rose from 135 people in 1991 to 3,738 (January 1, 2019), making them the largest immigrant community in Brescia.

The Janjua brothers, who own Madina Center, moved the shop but remained in the business, even after Italian police discovered that between 20 September and 25 December 2008, they had sent more than €400,000 to Pakistanis being watched for terrorism, and later sent money for Uri, Jammu and Kashmir, India. The detectives monitored several ‘Pakistani Islamic cultural centres’ in Brescia, and uncovered a network of al Ummah Italia, al Noor, Masjid Ennour Onlus, Arahma Onlus and Tabligh Islamic Center of Beidzzole, all linked to a ‘Society of Propaganda’ that engaged in door-to-door evangelism to convert non-believers or ‘bad’ Muslims.

Brescia town hosts Brescia Middle East, owned by Lebanon-native, Tony Abi Saab, an international arms dealer company that supplies terrorist groups with high-tech guns and ammunition. All deals are strictly cash; Brescia Middle East also launders money via a banker friend and shell companies.^[xxix] US Army reports say Tony’s company, Brixia, made spare parts for weapons and smuggled them across the Middle East for re-assembly and sales. He reportedly sold pistols and machine guns to Daesh through Turkey. Aided by the CIA and FBI, the US Army arrested Tony in Afghanistan, but a sharp legal defence saw him released with only a small fine; his shell companies (Tactica Ltd Afghanistan, K5 Global, Bennet-Fouch and SIMAINT) continue operating in the Middle East.

Caliphate and India

Turkey is emerging as a new hub for anti-India activities after the tweaking of Article 370. This goes far beyond its traditional support to Pakistan at the OIC.^[xxx] The Institute of Strategic Thinking and Lahore Centre for Peace Research organised a conference on Kashmir (November 21, 2019), in Ankara, where the Indian action was condemned. The invitees included Pakistan Senator Sherry Rahman, former diplomat and chairman of the Lahore Centre for Peace Research Shamshad Ahmad Khan and UK-based Kashmiri lobbyist Lord Nazir Ahmad.^[xxxi] Turkey supported Pakistan in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and UN General Assembly where Erdoğan said the world has not paid proper attention to Kashmir, and the issue has to be resolved through “dialogue on the basis of justice, equity, and not through collision”.^[xxxii] (September 25, 2019)

Turkey has universal jurisdiction laws as part of its domestic laws that Khalistani separatists tried to invoke to embarrass India. In October 2018, Sikhs For Justice (SFJ) filed a case against Punjab Chief Minister Capt. Amarinder Singh when he visited Turkey to pay homage at Gallipoli to soldiers from the First Patiala Infantry Regiment (now 15 Punjab) on the centenary of the War. The Captain served in this regiment in the Indian army. SFJ alleged torture of activists detained in Punjab for canvassing for the separatist Khalistan ‘Referendum 2020’. Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, legal advisor to SFJ, filed the complaint on October 28 with the Office of Public Prosecutor of Gallipoli, and sought the Captain’s arrest.^[xxxiii] He told the media that Article 13 of the Turkish Penal Code provides that Turkish law shall apply to “inter alia the offences of genocide, crimes against humanity and torture committed in a foreign country whether or not committed by a citizen or non-citizen of Turkey”.^[xxxiv] However, Amarinder Singh visited the World War I Helles Memorial unmolested, and dismissed the SFJ threats as “publicity seeking stunts”.^[xxxv]

Shah Faesal, who resigned from the IAS and founded a political party, the J&K Peoples Movement, was detained at Delhi airport while trying to take a flight to Turkey in August 2019. An unnamed official of his party told media that Faesal was going to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to file a case against India for revoking Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir when he was arrested and sent back to Srinagar.^[xxxvi]

Experts believe that like Pannun, he hoped to use Turkey’s laws as individuals cannot file cases in The Hague; possibly Islamabad would then use that to take the Jammu and Kashmir issue to the ICJ. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan tweeted on August 15, 2019: “Will world silently witness another Srebrenica-type massacre & ethnic cleansing of Muslims in IOK? I want to warn international community if it allows this to happen, it will have severe repercussions & reactions in the Muslim world setting off radicalisation & cycles of violence”. Srebrenica witnessed the 1995 genocide of over 8,000 Bosnians by the Bosnian Serb army. There has been no massacre of Kashmiri Muslims in India, but the tweet suggests a possible ISI hand in the aborted Turkish escapade. India will have to keep a close watch on the 21st century incarnation of the caliphate.

The one thing that can checkmate Erdoğan’s caliphate dream is the sinking Turkish economy, with the Lira falling 20 per cent against the US dollar. Erdoğan attributed the decline to the Coronavirus pandemic and the devastating explosions in Beirut, but the fact is that Turkey’s economy was in doldrums long before the pandemic arrived. Its central bank has exhausted nearly one-third of its foreign exchange reserves; the wars in Libya and Syria have further crippled economic recovery. In an ominous development for Erdoğan, the AKP lost major municipalities in 2019, including Ankara and Istanbul, and the opposition parties have made economic development and corruption in the AKP their principal electoral planks. Given the regime’s claims of presiding over a “strong economy”, recourse to the IMF is ruled out.^[xxxvii]

(Sandhya Jain is a political analyst, independent researcher, and author of multiple books. She is also editor of the platform Vijayvaani)

^[i] Asian Warrior, Hagia Sophia: Ottoman Revival, July 13, 2020. https://www.asianwarrior.com/2020/07/hagia-sophia-ottoman-rvival-erdogan.html

^[ii] Dawn, Who is the leader of the Muslim world?, Nadeem Paracha, August 23, 2020. https://www.dawn.com/news/1575905/smokers-corner-who-is-the-leader-of-the-muslim-world

^[iii] WION Web Team, Turkey President Erdogan rakes up Kashmir issue in Pakistan Parliament, Feb 14, 2020 https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/news-update-breaking-Turkey-President-Erdogan-rakes-up-Kashmir-issue-in-Pakistan-Parliament

^[iv] Dawn, ‘No difference between Gallipoli and occupied Kashmir’: Erdogan stands by Pakistan in Parliament speech, Javed Hussain, February 14, 2020. https://www.dawn.com/news/1534429/no-difference-between-gallipoli-and-occupied-kashmir-erdogan-stands-by-pakistan-in-parliament-speech

^[v] RT, Following Hagia Sophia’s conversion to mosque, Russian MPs want Turkey’s disused Orthodox churches under Moscow’s control, Jonny Tickle, July 16, 2020. https://www.rt.com/russia/494970-russian-mp-turkeys-disused-churches-moscow/

^[vi] Reuters, After Hagia Sophia, Erdogan reconverts Turkey’s historic Chora church to mosque, Aug 22, 2020. https://m.hindustantimes.com/world-news/after-hagia-sophia-erdogan-reconverts-turkey-s-historic-chora-church-to-mosque/story-aE0YyGSM57oSED7iqPvc2J_amp.html?__twitter_impression=true&s=03

^[vii] Engdahl, F. William, Turkey’s Erdogan From Haga Sophia to the Shores of Tripoli and Beyond, July 30, 2020. https://journal-neo.org/2020/07/30/turkey-s-erdogan-from-haga-sophia-to-the-shores-of-tripoli-and-beyond/

^[viii] Engdahl, F. William, Turkey’s Erdogan From Haga Sophia to the Shores of Tripoli and Beyond, July 30, 2020. https://journal-neo.org/2020/07/30/turkey-s-erdogan-from-haga-sophia-to-the-shores-of-tripoli-and-beyond/

^[ix] Al Arabiya, ANALYSIS: The Nazi roots of Muslim Brotherhood, Tony Duheaume, June 27, 2018. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2018/06/27/ANALYSIS-The-Nazi-roots-of-Muslim-Brotherhood

^[x] Timeline, The Nazis, with the help of an Arab cleric, used Islamic extremists as a tool, Louis Anslow, Apr 7, 2017. https://timeline.com/nazis-muslim-extremists-ss-6824aee281d2

^[xi] Engdahl, F. William, Turkey’s Erdogan From Haga Sophia to the Shores of Tripoli and Beyond, July 30, 2020. https://journal-neo.org/2020/07/30/turkey-s-erdogan-from-haga-sophia-to-the-shores-of-tripoli-and-beyond/

^[xii] Al Arabiya, ANALYSIS: The Nazi roots of Muslim Brotherhood, Tony Duheaume, June 27, 2018. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2018/06/27/ANALYSIS-The-Nazi-roots-of-Muslim-Brotherhood

^[xiii] See Norman Gershan, Besa: Muslims Who Rescued Jews during World War II, 2006; Fariborz Mokhtari, In the Lion’s Shadow: The Iranian Schindler and His Homeland in the Second World War, 2012; Robert Satloff, Among the Righteous, 2006; Karen Gray Ruelle and Deborah Durland Desai, The Grand Mosque of Paris: A Story of How Muslims Rescued Jews During the Holocaust, 2012; Joëlle Allouche-Benayoun, Perceptions of the Holocaust in Europe and Muslim Communities: Sources, Comparisons and Educational Challenges, 2013, and Michael Laskier, North African Jewry in the Twentieth Century: The Jews of Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria, 1997.

^[xiv] New Republic, Muslim Brotherhood and Nazi Germany, Jeffrey Herf, May 12, 2011. https://newrepublic.com/article/88104/muslim-brotherhood-anti-semitism-israel-egypt

^[xv] The Role of Muslims and the Holocaust, Mehnaz M. Afridi, Aug 2014 https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199935420.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199935420-e-005

^[xvi] New Republic, Muslim Brotherhood and Nazi Germany, Jeffrey Herf, May 12, 2011. https://newrepublic.com/article/88104/muslim-brotherhood-anti-semitism-israel-egypt

^[xvii] Al Arabiya, ANALYSIS: The Nazi roots of Muslim Brotherhood, Tony Duheaume, June 27, 2018. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2018/06/27/ANALYSIS-The-Nazi-roots-of-Muslim-Brotherhood

^[xviii] Erdoğan’s Ambition for the Caliphate and the Failure of Turkish Democracy, Aydogan Vatandas, June 25, 2018. https://consortiumnews.com/2018/06/25/Erdoğans-ambition-for-the-caliphate-and-the-failure-of-turkish-democracy/

^[xix] Erdoğan’s caliphate dream put in motion in Turkey, Abdullah Bozkurt, November 27, 2018 https://stockholmcf.org/commentary-Erdoğans-caliphate-dream-put-in-motion-in-turkey/

^[xx] Erdoğan: Self-Proclaimed Caliphate?, Cynthia Lardner, June 29, 2017 https://intpolicydigest.org/2017/06/29/Erdoğan-self-proclaimed-caliphate/

^[xxi] Ahval News, Turkey accepted China’s extradition request for Uighur man – report, May 20, 2020 https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-china/turkey-accepted-chinas-extradition-request-uighur-man-report

^[xxii] RT, Greece & Egypt sign deal on exclusive economic zone amid tensions with Turkey, August 6, 2020 https://www.rt.com/newsline/497297-greece-egypt-economic-turkey/

^[xxiii] Dorsey, James M., Palestine plays regional power politics with proposed energy deal, July 14, 2020 https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.com/2020/07/palestine-plays-regional-power-politics.html

^[xxiv] Al-monitor, Egypt announces international anti-Turkey alliance, George Mikhail, May 31, 2020. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/05/egypt-anti-turkey-alliance-libya-mediterranean-waters.amp.html?skipWem=1&__twitter_impression=true&s=09

^[xxv] Malaysia kicks off Islamic summit with PM Mahathir denying talk of new Islamic bloc, December 19, 2019. https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysia-kicks-off-islamic-summit-with-non-saudi-aligned-countries-in-attendance

^[xxvi] Progress of non-Muslims ‘left us in lurch’, Malaysia tells Islamic summit, Joseph Sipalan, Rozanna Latiff, December 19,2019 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-muslimalliance/progress-of-non-muslims-left-us-in-lurch-malaysia-tells-islamic-summit-idUSKBN1YN0EU

^[xxvii] Italy arrests network accused of money laundering and financing jihadists, Anti-Corruption Digest, May 11, 2018. https://anticorruptiondigest.com/2018/05/11/italy-arrests-network-accused-of-money-laundering-and-financing-jihadists/#axzz6CP8TiGCe

^[xxviii] Pakistan-Italy Terror Funding Link: Why Shady Dealings in Brescia?, Francesca Marino, November 22, 2019. https://www.thequint.com/news/world/hawala-terror-funding-jihad-networks-italy-brescia-pakistan-immigrants

^[xxix] How Brescia Middle East is laundering crime money collected from selling weapons to terrorists, Lebanon 247 News, January, 24 2019. http://news.lebanon247news.com/Lebanon_247_News/Politics_Law_Society/Chief_Editor/24_01_2019/24_01_2019_06_25_00.html

^[xxx] Erdogan’s Kashmir Activism Stems From Islamist Ambitions, Abhinav Pandya, February 10, 2020. https://swarajyamag.com/politics/erdogans-kashmir-activism-stems-from-islamist-ambitions

^[xxxi] Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent activism on Kashmir is motivated by Turkey president’s Caliphate dreams, Abhinav Pandya, November 25, 2019. https://www.firstpost.com/world/recep-tayyip-Erdoğans-recent-activism-on-kashmir-is-motivated-by-turkey-presidents-caliphate-dreams-7695671.html

^[xxxii] Erdogan support for Pakistan on Kashmir at UN an outcome of downswing in India-Turkey ties, Nayanima Basu, September 26, 2019 https://theprint.in/diplomacy/erdogan-support-for-pakistan-on-kashmir-at-un-an-outcome-of-downswing-in-india-turkey-ties/297376/

^[xxxiii] Indian Express, SFJ files complaint against Captain Amarinder Singh in Turkey, to seek arrest warrant, October 30, 2018. https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/sfj-files-complaint-against-captain-amarinder-singh-in-turkey-to-seek-arrest-warrant-5424315/

^[xxxiv] See Articles 76 and 77: https://www.legislationline.org/download/id/6453/file/Turkey_CC_2004_am2016_en.pdf

^[xxxv] Indian Express, Found no trace of SFJ at Gallipoli: Punjab CM Amarinder Singh, October 31, 2018. https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/found-no-trace-of-sfj-at-gallipoli-punjab-cm-amarinder-singh-5426259/

^[xxxvi] New Indian Express, Shah Faesal planned to take Kashmir issue to ICJ: Sources, August 17, 2020 https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2019/aug/17/faesal-planned-to-file-case-at-icj-2020114.html.

^[xxxvii] New Eastern Outlook, Turkey: The Political Economy of Hagia Sophia, Salman Rafi Sheikh, August 13, 2020 https://journal-neo.org/2020/08/13/turkey-the-political-economy-of-hagia-sophia/

Fashionable topics are obscure. The information available on fashionable topics is often more by factors than the information supplied. Means, a lot of information is concocted on the go. Who does not want to be associated with something that is considered important? Cryptos are today in thousands with Bitcoins and XRPs leading the way. Through this article we will examine all different aspects of cryptos.

Technology

Usually cryptocurrencies are created using a technology called blockchain, though not all cryptocurrencies are blockchain-based. So, what is a blockchain? It is a mechanism of generating 256 bit crypto-keys (an alphanumeric code) from the collective data submitted, and then including this key generated in previous sessions as part of the data submitted in every next session. Entry is made in a commonly available ledger, which makes such entries immutable and hence safe. There is no limit on the volume of data, and each submission process includes the previous key.

The Blockchain carries none of the data, which may be left with anyone including the initial owner. Only the block keys are noted in the Blockchain. Each blockchain entry every few minutes or seconds is shared amongst and machine-accepted by all the participants of the main blockchain participants, called nodes.

In bitcoin, the data that forms the bitcoin is ‘mined’ (discovered by solving a mathematical computational problem), which keeps on getting more and more tedious, difficult, hence time & energy consuming, constantly enhancing the cost of the mining of bitcoin. Other cryptos have different mechanisms.

Is Blockchain and Cryptocurrency one and the same thing?

Not really. Blockchain is a technology that can be used for any purpose. Indeed, it is being used today for invoicing, legal documents, notary stamp papers, for smart contracts (discussed ahead), and even software creation. The applications are myriad. Within so-called cryptos, there is Bitcoin, which is a full-fledged cryptocurrency and beyond any legality or illegality as it has no promoter, no operator, no server and is collectively managed by the people who own it. ‘XRP’ of Ripple Labs, which is also cryptocurrency is completely legal and is used for international inter-bank payment settlements (prospective competitor to SWIFT) at less than 50% of the current costs. Hence, a large number of banks globally (300+) are subscribers to their service. XRP operates completely legally as a software-based settlement system amongst banks and at last count had a market cap of USD 11.35 billion.

Furthermore, there are more and more crypto-based products, which are not currencies. With varied alterations in the underlying blockchain technology, they are ending up in the market almost at the rate of few numbers a week. Therefore, it is important that in the context of this article, Blockchain refers to a technology, Crypto refers to any class of digital asset or instrument financial, legal or other, while Crypto-currency refers to a blockchain based money or money equivalent.

To unravel the conundrum that crypto and the information haze around it represent, let’s go back to first principles.

What is Money? 

Believe it or not there are different schools of thought on what is money. There are classical schools and now there is Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and another labyrinth of ideas as to what is money. To avoid drowning my readers in this ontic ocean which has as much economic theory as history in it, I draw upon the current simple and superficial definition. “Money is an obligation undertaken by the Reserve Bank of India to exchange a submitted currency note for another one of the same number.” The INR100 note, if brought to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be exchanged for another INR100 note. That is all that RBI undertakes as an obligation. You don’t get gold or USD or sacks of wheat. Just another note for the one you submitted back. A currency note, therefore is an undated promissory note (debt obligation) of the exchequer.

What backs the fiat? 

Nothing other than the revenues of Government, which most often are less than their expenditure in most nations.

So am I holding shares of a loss making enterprise?

Thematically, yes. But in practise it is slightly different, especially with a monopoly like a Government. They can afford to run losses and be credible.

Why can’t (don’t) Governments run proficits (Govt with revenues exceeding expenditure) rather than deficits?

This has nothing to do with economics. It is more about politics and social theory that a nation adopts. Proficits are run by only two types of nations: (a) Some relatively small and extremely rich European nations (not touched by the two world wars of the last century) with colonial resources left over from 300 years of plunder of Asia, Africa and South America and with high per capita income along with lowest standard deviation in per capita income can afford to be proficit states (they need little public welfare); (b) Those whose equity (treasury obligations of the sovereign) on the international debt markets takes a major hit and in a bid to shore up their reputation, they become like a big company for some time. Russia is one of few such examples after the sovereign debt default on 17 August 1998 by the Sergei Kirienko Government.

Sensible, good-health States are those that ensure zero proficit. This is sensible as any good state with its means to raise money anytime from the domestic and international markets or print its own, should ideally run like a not-for-profit venture. Welfare states are different. They believe that current inequality in availability of resources among their population and the resources that they require to run themselves (the Govt.) and build infrastructure and defence, should not be extracted back as taxes from the rich and affluent, but should be extracted as Treasury Bonds from the rich so that it keeps on lying on their balance sheets as an asset. Please know that every individual who has even INR 100 deposited in a bank, has Government assets on his personal or organisational balance sheet. It’s just that he does not know about it (it happens through Banks, who are bound to buy T-Bills and maintain SLRs). In venture investment business, there is a simple mechanism to evaluate anything, anytime. It is called, “see the exit value”. If the Govt. of a nation goes belly up (it happens all the time, in one or other country in the world, so it is not a Black Swan event), what is the value of the T-Bills? Actually, little.

Back to the modern welfare state, it replaces high taxes with the Govt. obligations, thereby giving a win-win, feel good effect. For purposes of altruism, I concede running some fiscal deficit is okay. Let the poor be assisted without harming the rich (that is the motto of fiscal deficits). But it should be within sensible limits. I desist from recommending those limits as that is not the subject matter of this article. But one ratio that no one ever publishes is the proportion of fiscal deficit caused by Govt.’s expenditure on sustaining itself. Here I have problems, because if this ratio is high, it is nothing but a Venture which has raised angel investment and is spending money not on the business that generates revenues, but on high salaries and fancy cars.

How are Govt bonds different from those issued by large corporations?

Just as the Govt. can never default on payments in national currency, they can tap on a computer a few times and generate as much money as required to honour the bonds. But the question remains: what will the money mean to the bond holders, if it is devalued? This brings us to a very critical juncture; what are the bond holders wanting? Is it Money (irrespective of what that money stands for) or Value? This question is relatively difficult to understand and answer. Because the bond holders are investing to avoid devaluation of their holdings. But in case the yield on a bond is fully compensated by inflation, the bond holder is actually reducing the worth of his money. Therefore, bonds of a very well managed corporation are safer than poorly managed Government. This brings us to the other painful incongruence that exists—Credit Ratings. Credit ratings of a legal entity cannot exceed the sovereign credit rating of the jurisdiction. This principle is followed by most rating agencies. This sounds theoretically sensible but has proven to be wrong in innumerable cases the world over. Currently, there are innumerable corporations in Spain and Italy, whose credit rating should be better than the corresponding Governments. This is a typical case of an insurance event, when emotion is let to govern the rational. Governments tend to provide a sense of security from the legislative and authoritative powers they possess.

What are limbic and cerebral markets?

Limbic economies are those where demand precedes and triggers supply. Cerebral economies, conversely, are supply-initiated demand triggered.

Modern Market Theory & the need for all powerful sovereign

The foundations of the theory that Governments are all powerful printers of currency, are flimsy. Indeed, the fact that firms can be more credible then the Governments in certain circumstances (I again quote Italy & Turkey as an example, where some Credit Rating Agencies decided to place companies ahead of countries) is itself a proof of this theory’s faultiness. In reality, in today’s globalised world, governments are economic agents like corporates. Yes, they are more powerful and in monetary economics, power = capability to manipulate or better said, power = capability of harmlessly-managed for oneself deviation by induction, from the spontaneous.

To finally come to the crypto and its logic, it is important to understand debt, which is of two kinds: Sustainable [maintains economic balance] and Unsustainable [promotes economic dis-balance].

In an informationally-transparent-market, ‘sustainable debt’ is the difference between demand and supply. Please note; it is the difference, irrespective of whether supply exceeds demand or vice-versa. The gap, whatsoever, among the two is sustainable debt without causing inflation or deflation (major change in prices). It is important to note that these gaps occur simultaneously in economies. In certain sectors, demand exceeds supply; in others, supply exceeds demand. ‘Sustainability’ manifests itself in the stability of the value of money.

When supply is more, either the prices will fall (unsustainability) or people have to be provided debt to buy more + their consumption habits have to be ramped up substantially. Since the situation highlighted in the previous image is unsustainable, therefore one of the below mentioned two cases are chosen, depending on whether one is a deflating non-growth cerebral economy or a non-deflating growing cerebral economy.

If demand is more than supply, one of the below mentioned are chosen. The 2nd on foresees providing debt to firms to ramp up production.

It is important to note that the complexity in an economy happens owing to simultaneous occurrence of all four mechanisms concomitantly, when specific sectors are a combination of cerebral/limbic, inflationary/deflationary/non-inflating in an economy. The complexity is a gaussian curve. Completely underdeveloped (usually limbic markets) and highly developed (usually cerebral markets) have clear choices. It is indeed the ones in the middle that face high-complexity choices and ideally very sector focused approach in policy making, which, if absent, will leave desired high growth a pipe-dream.

Conclusively, it is only social habits on one side and the innovative capabilities of the firms on the other that are constraints to growth. It is important to underline that demand (includes that which is domestic in origin as well as that generated by exports) and supply too is for both domestic market as well as imports.

Debt is growth, not money. When either supply or demand exceed the other, it leads to either people getting debt to buy more (with sustainable inflation in supply excess), or firms getting debt to produce more (in case of excess demand). “Money on the contrary is just another financial commodity and nothing more. It is subject to the same equilibrium economics as wheat or rice are.”

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), often referred to as Post-Keynesian Economics, assumes that Government’s money printing capability is the compensatory mechanism, keeping Government as a superseding mechanism over and above the economic agents—almost like a puppeteer. The fact however is that owing to legal and judicial parity that is available in India and most democracies between Govt. and non-Govt. entities in eyes of law; Govt. is just another economic agent, though with additional powers like emission of currency. The proponents of MMT especially in the United States are advocates of a superseding and unquestionable powers of the Govt. Worse, they believe in collective rationality and aptitude of Government. The latter is the most challenging and, in some cases, dangerous assumption, as systems like those of Government do not follow rationality, they create their own rationality and are hence, subject to the most irrational owing to cultural frames of operations to which they are subjected.

It is interesting that Bitcoin & Cryptocurrencies usually lie out of the purview of MMT. Proponents like Randall Wray, Mathew Forstater and Stephanie Kelton speak little on crypto or reject it as non-serious phenomena. I furthermore believe it is purposefully propped as it provides US Govt and extraordinary capability to manipulate & manoeuvre at the cost of others. MMT lends more economic credibility & authority to the US Govt than that, which is true.

Crypto and the New Economy 

All the aforementioned were important to be understood by first principles for the understanding of Crypto’s role in making a new economy happen. Bitcoins are beyond the patience of most traditional economists. And they might be partly right in saying that once bitcoin is treated as a digital asset, its behaviour shall be no different from other similar asset forms. The major caveat that is unaddressed is the information plane. Information is the medium and milieu of all economic theories. If the information milieu changes dramatically, one might have a completely new set of substantially altered economic equations.

Bitcoin is excellent electronic money that finishes the rigging capability of individual states. It does exactly the same job as money, but the other way round: the total issued bitcoins are limited to 21 million. Therefore, if the entire world shifts to bitcoins, one will need no more economists as the growth of the world economy will be the growth in the rate of bitcoins—as simple as that!

For ease of use, Bitcoin can be endlessly reduced in denomination. It already has satoshi (The smallest bitcoin currency); then it will be milli-satoshi, micro-satoshi and so on, as technology allows for constant reduction of this denomination as per need and rise of the value of bitcoins. It will be an ideal capitalist, competitive economic model. Furthermore, while it will give a major startup advantage to the US, Europe and Japan; it will be a level playing field for the future. Because he who produces more of the needed and desired will win, irrespective of its location. In future, it will tilt in favour of those nations, which are less costly for production. It will therefore be a self-balancing mechanism, based on unemotional merit-based capitalism. This is quite in contrast to the superseding sovereign that MMT proposes.

What is so exciting about Cryptos?

The development quotient of a nation can indeed be estimated from the higher proportion of electronic payments vis-à-vis paperback. Electronic money clearly identifies the payee and the payer, making it relatively difficult to evade taxes, making money cleaner. Most transactions in North America, Europe and developed East Asia are electronic. Nevertheless, crypto-currency is very different from all existing electronic money transactions. It is important to observe that crypto currency is not one uniform lot in terms of technology. There are innumerable different technologies that are used for creating crypto currencies. Therefore, we focus on the minimum common denominator which is invariably available in every type of crypto currency. Following are the crucial features of crypto currency qua electronic money:

1. Electronic transaction ledger rests with everyone. There is nothing to steal. And at the current level of computing technology, the ledger is immutable.
2. Block chain does not require any central agency, authentication or trust centre (like banks) that authorises or underwrites a transaction and charges a commission on the same. Since a common ledger of entries is available, changes, if any made, are available for everyone. A simple analogue would be sharing a Google spreadsheet, such that each participant can make changes in the spreadsheet, but the changes are validated only when each participant agrees to the proposed change.
3. Crypto-currency can be issued in lots, such that different lots are governed by different rules. Therefore, it is possible to create multiple currency types pretty quickly.
4. If required, the issuer can exert control over the currency even after it is issued.
5. Crypto currency can be created to be completely opaque or completely transparent along with automated reporting of various types of transactions including those which could tantamount to corruption.
6. Critically, crypto-currency when programmed as a smart contract has the capability to work on its own without any action required to be triggered by the owner. It technically could become the Letter of Credit of the 21st century.
7. Open electronic marketplaces make it extremely easy for the end user to transfer or exchange this currency globally, as all it needs is an internet connection to be accessed or used.
8. Offline transfer of cryptos is possible. Indeed, it is even possible to print cryptos as tangible cards or tokens for easy offline interactions, which are accounted for once the transaction jumps over from offline back to online.
9. Very importantly cryptos can(not) be made traceable. Traceability could bring in a new dawn of new economics, as lots of theories that economists have devised are actually for predicting behaviours to ultimately understand the flow of money in an economy. Crypto can provide economists and data analysts instantaneous understanding of currency vis-a-vis hundreds of markers, including the capability to see which sector has how much monetary gravity and what is the sector-wise rate of monetary circulation. This could, therefore, open the tummy of economics for relationship dynamics and knowledge. Relationship dynamics means the capability to see how, which relationships and dependencies are changing and by how much.

Aforementioned are pretty much the most gravitational changes that block chain brings to money vis-à-vis existing electronic money.

Need of a smartphone for carrying crypto-currency is a misnomer amongst the masses. It is only partly true. All crypto money is computed, binary money. A computing device is required only for transactions, especially those where one is a sender (not a recipient) of crypto-currency, quite like existing electronic money. Secondly, there is a possibility of creating very cheap electronic-wallet devices or cards that connect electronically and independently or parasitically (when in proximity or connected to a terminal, without its own display, like cards). These wallets can be produced so cheap that they can be provided free of cost by Governments to all its citizens. Pretty much like the Banks give away debit cards along with account opening.

Launch of DigiYuan and its repercussions on the World 

#COVID-19 has eclipsed another momentous event—China launched its crypto-currency in May 2020. An official crypto-fiat built around block-chain is very different from cash or electronic money that exists today in mobile wallets and bank accounts. Through this article, we first understand the disparity between existing electronic money and block chain based crypto-currency, followed by the impact that Chinese DigiYuan could potentially have on China and the world.

In context of all the aforementioned, China’s launch of its crypto-Yuan is very significant. China achieved the status of an upper middle-income nation through prudent use of its inexpensive work force, making itself into the factory of the world and through financial policies that let it grow at an astronomical pace. It now clearly sees that depending on export for the next push in growth is not possible. Concurrently, One-Belt-One-Road has had an undulating beginning. China therefore, knows it needs to now grow its domestic market. Secondly, it needs a performance spurt. Weeding out corruption is a major efficiency exercise. It can easily add 1-2% points to growth annually. Besides which, it will have a cascading impact on a number of other aspects of economic, social, cultural and political life. It could also create a renewed interest in China as a great clean large market to invest and do business.

China is a single party authoritarian regime. Such a regime has complete control over national resources and can legally draw resources for its sustenance. The Party is the Government and hence everything belonging to the Government belongs to the Party. Therefore, institutional corruption, which in democracies exists through business-political quid-pro-quo for politicians to access resources for electioneering is not required. Corruption in such ‘institutionalised authoritarian’ nations is a result of an individual human’s propensity to monetise power for richer living or for accumulating further additional power. The word ‘institutionalised authoritarianism’ stands for one in which the public and the ruler are in an equilibrium that is discovered through decades long struggle amongst them, such that the endurance and reliability of such regime is as high as that of democracies, while those aspects of living, which free societies term as ‘absence of freedom’, are so deeply impregnated into the cultural fabric of the nation that they no more seems authoritarian. “Socio-political freedom has no absolutist existence or features, it is a bargain within the cultural context of a nation.”

By slowly replacing paper money with a crypto currency, China will be able to gradually weed out close to all individual corruption, technologically. This could lead to a much better performance, better economic efficiency and better image of China. Furthermore, a stable China with easily available Digi-Yuan for international transactions, could in no time become an international transaction currency, though it might never become a reserve currency for the same political reasons of opaqueness and authoritarianism. This will grossly impact the current status of US Dollar as the world money (currency of exchange and transaction) as well as the reserve currency. While the US Dollar will still retain the status of reserve currency; but the world money status might quickly decouple itself from the US and agglutinate to China. As mentioned above, a clean and transparent China will also attract attention and a second wave of investment. Where does it leave us in India, Russia, Europe, the US & others?

Remember the 70s? The US and China built a seller-buyer relationship that thrived for almost four decades. China will now build one with the developing nations of Asia, Africa, South Europe and South America. These nations will become the projections of Chinese power and rich in DigiYuans. Quite like China became rich in US Dollars and only now understands that it was fooled for exchanging its natural resources for a song and four trillion American promises. In this, India has been much more intelligent than Chinese; we exploited resources for ourselves, China ravaged them for the US!

Russia faces a lot of internal challenges, most crucially lack of ideology. Socio-culturally, Russians are very different from both Asians and Westerners. They operate most efficiently when provided a common clearly identifiable by most ideals. Happiness and prosperity for all has not really cut ice with Russia, notwithstanding repeated propositions of President Putin, who has dominated the Russian mind space for the last two decades. China has two very large neighbours—India in the South and Russia in the North. It is clear that China has learnt to deal with both adeptly. Russia is treated with equity and respect, something Europe and America failed to provide Russia. Russia with its large pool of resources and a sensible size economy will be major target markets for DigiYuan as the world money (transaction currency). Reasons are simple and straight: Euro, does not want to be one, Ruble cannot be one, so what is left is the US dollar that Russia dislikes and Digi-Yuan, which it will perhaps adopt and accept.

Africa, some parts of Asia (Iran, Pakistan etc.), S. America and all those being supported by China will have little issues with use of DigiYuan. Europe is orphaned, with identity lost to America, a lukewarm European United Front and contradictions within. They surely do not stand to compete with China. And individually, not collectively, (as EU) will subscribe to DigiYuan as a transaction currency. Having said the aforementioned, Europe will have a positive, but cautious approach rather than a camaraderie with China.

The US might subsequently be left with only India and the Middle East (till the monarchies don’t die along with oil, which though not immediate, but is now apparently declining on the horizon). Australia, Canada and the UK are too small and inconsequential separately, while their colonial past will never let them unite together. India is seen to be of no bother currently, as the democratic contradictions within India are seen as a safety valve that will never make India a threat for China. Assisted by the US, brooded by Europe and politically no more a push-over, could India gain from the current COVID crisis by being the other large market for sourcing, manufacturing, selling and exporting?

A popular Digi-Yuan will force other nations including India and the US to issue their own crypto-currency. With all crypto-currencies freely available on the internet, transferred without intermediary and state control, coupled with a very high level of universal awareness and connectedness amongst people of the world, the globe is poised to be more dynamic than ever. So brace for the change.

With Digi-money issued as a smart contract, the role of banks as medium of trust will be annulled completely. Would all money be crypto money, the role of banks will be reduced to asset management companies. Furthermore, with ever expanding role of relatively better algorithmic scrutiny and rating along with an easily analysable record of crypto-money, the role of Asset Management by Banks might also completely shift to data analytics and an AI system, which rates and assesses debtors, and provides the depositors to choose risk-return for themselves; in other words, a new era of crypto-bonds is visible on the horizon. This will be an end to banking as we know it now. Each of the aforementioned elements are individually already evolving.

Another major impact of gradual introduction and dominance of crypto-currency in China will be birth of new economics. Most Economics Nobel Laureates (including Abhijit Bannerjee) would have spent their life gathering monetary and other data from the economic limbs of a society—individual citizens—to see the impact of money, its distribution, its circulation speed etc, to verify the causes of trickle-down effect, if one exists. With complete traceability in crypto (one can, in one click, trace all the owners of each and every single Digi-Yuan from the day it was issued/mined to the present day), along with identification of the holder, most of these economic theories will be facts, rather than hypothesis in flux. What trickles down, what does not will be transparently visible and will cease being a matter of expert guesses and debates. This will enable a completely new type of development economics to be born in China. Akin to shooting a guided-missile, bang on target, then hurling tens of unguided projectiles, this development economics will be highly directed for the target population (directly or indirectly). Pilferage shall be marginal. Upliftment of underprivileged will be dramatically catalysed. And China will be driven into a new unmatched league of its own. And all this seems happening with their decisiveness. So brace for it.

So, will India rise to the occasion? The tone of the answer, like in any other democracy, will be decided by the people of India, the tenor by its leaders. India has always been more American than America. The best team work most Indians are capable of is when playing alone. Therefore, in some sense we are opposites of Russians. Russians have immense capability to unify around an idea but are lacking great unifying ideas. India has great unifying ideas but lacks any desire in its people to be in unison. “Constructive Union is a tendency of people to make an idea happen, Diversionary Union on the other hand is the one that happens when people unite to avert a calamity brought on them by nature or internal or external forces. Such unions are nothing but acts of collective survival. They are instinctive, not strategic.” There will be other outcomes of Crypto introduction, which includes automation of economics and a major replacement of economists by data analysts.

Deepak Loomba is Chairman of De Core Nanosemiconductors Limited, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

Editor’s Note: This article is an India Foundation initiative to examine the current state of the Indian economy post the COVID-19 outbreak and the challenges that are likely to be faced in resetting the economy over the short to mid-term. The transcript is from a conversation between Shaurya Doval, Member, Board of Governors, India Foundation and Praket Arya, Senior Research Fellow at India Foundation.

Praket Arya: If I can ask a simple question to a very complicated scenario, in one word, what do you think is the present state of the Indian economy?

Shaurya Doval: ‘Serious,’ would be the word.

Praket Arya: Despite a recovering stock market and growing employment numbers as suggested by data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, the size of the economy is in fact shrinking. Given the extent of our informal economy and the ongoing uncertainty because of COVID-19, to what extent can we rely on such projections for making informed decisions? And in your opinion, is the economy actually shrinking?

Shaurya Doval: I said serious to the previous question as these are unprecedented times. ‘Is the economy shrinking?’ – Yes. This phenomenon probably happened only once post-independence. We are in a serious situation, but this is a global phenomenon which is not just limited to India. The lockdown that followed the pandemic was an unprecedented response that governments all over the world took and this disrupted the economy. However, we must contextualise these facts. 2020 will be a year of contraction, even of major economies. The United States is expected to shrink by about 8%, the EU by about 10%, the UK by 10% and Japan by 6%. India, in comparison, is doing reasonably well, with its economy likely to shrink in the range of 4-4.5%. But, like most of the world, India will bounce back in 2021, and the recovery will be more than 7.5-8% as we see it today. As the world economies recover, so would the Indian economy. This year, in every possible sense, has been a Black Swan event. It is an unprecedented situation that emerged for reasons that were not foreseen, leading to lockdowns as a result of which economies worldwide have contracted. In light of the larger economies of the world, India has done a reasonably good job in limiting the extent of this contraction. The next natural phenomenon is a rebound because there is no structural breakdown of the economy. It’s not as if the factories have disappeared or the demand has disappeared. The factories just closed down which led to a contraction and hopefully things will bounce back next year.

Praket Arya: We have many noted economists making observations on India and their observations are not just limited to the economy. For example, Mr Kaushik Basu who was the Chief Economist of the World Bank and also the former Chief Economic Advisor of India recently noted that initiatives like ‘Make in India’ and ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ “will further close our economy to the World”. Moreover, he stated that “economic growth in 2020-21 will be the lowest since 1947” owing to a “trust deficit and divisiveness in the social fabric of the country”. What are your thoughts on such observations? Do they have any merit?

Shaurya Doval: Things become a little prejudiced when trained economics start talking about areas which are not in their domain. I respect Mr Kaushik Basu but I do not agree with his observations. I believe that neither the contraction in the Indian economy nor its revival in the coming years has anything to do with any major social disruptions in India. India is a civilisational fabric woven over centuries. I also do not agree with his assessment that Atmanirbhar Bharat will actually close India and the Indian economy to the world. On the contrary, Atmanirbhar Bharat is probably the first time since Independence that India has the confidence to build an economy that is completely self-reliant. The pandemic has exposed to the world the harsh reality that countries cannot outsource their core industries to others. The strategic risks of doing so are huge. During the pandemic, the US realised that their pharmaceutical industry was heavily dependent on imports for life-saving drugs. About 80 per cent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used to make drugs in the United States are said to come from China and India.^[1] To correct this dependence, the US is now taking steps to make itself self-reliant in terms of essential drugs. In India, the defence industry, which is a core sector of our economy, should have become ‘Atmanirbhar’ a long time ago. To state that Atmanirbhar Bharat will lead to the Indian economy being insulated is therefore not correct. On the contrary, it will enhance India’s confidence to engage with the global economy on its own terms, not as a mere recipient or in an aggressor manner, but as a country which can work and contribute to the evolution of the global economy. Today’s India is not what India was ten years ago. India is today a USD 3 trillion economy and the fifth-largest economy of the world. In the next few years, it will move up the ranks with its growth rates. A country and economy of India’s size must be able to control as many variables as it can so that the global economic structure is stable. The Prime Ministers vision and goal of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ is thus not only good for India but for the rest of the world too.

Praket Arya: The agriculture sector of the Indian economy is perhaps the most important and the largest sector that needs focus, given the sway it holds on the majority of the Indian population. The Prime Minister has now launched a Rs 1 trillion Agricultural Infrastructure^[2] Fund to boost post-harvest management infrastructures and community farming assets such as cold storage, collection centres and processing units. Do you think measures like these that enable debt financing can pivot India to become a world leader in organic and fortified foods as the PM envisages? What is the growth potential of the same and what must new age Agri-innovators and Agri-preneurs do to make agri-business profitable and scalable in India?

Shaurya Doval: This step is a great recognition by the Prime Minister. Food security is a vital ingredient for any big power and it is good that India recognised this important imperative and has been working on it consistently since independence. As a result, we now enjoy complete food security. The pandemic, however, has exposed certain kinds of vulnerabilities which need to be addressed. About 60% of India’s population depends on agriculture for employment. It is also a core sector of India’s economy. The Indian farmer plays a vital role in India’s economic architecture, which is why the Prime Minister refers to the farmer as the ‘Annadata’ of India. Today the share of agriculture in the Indian economy is only 15%, and this number will further reduce with the growth of the economy. But that will not reduce the strategic importance of this sector. During this pandemic, where every other sector saw a recession, it is the Indian farmers who have ensured that we have a bumper harvest and so, despite the economic disruption, there will be no food shortage. Agriculture will remain vital for 1.3 billion Indians, and our economic planners must understand that.

Having achieved food security our next challenge is to substantially take this game to the next level. In the next few years, India must aim to become an exporter of processed foods. Under the WTO rules, pure export of agriculture will be difficult^[3] because every country will be protective in this regard but there are many countries that can benefit significantly from India’s agriculture and food processing capabilities. Historically, we have underinvested in this sector and as a result, we today waste about 15% of our food production. We need to build capacities to not only process food, but also to convert this surplus into an advantage. The agro-startups can convert agriculture into a value-added sector. This gives us the headroom to absorb more and more people in the agricultural sector. As 60% of the population is dependent on agriculture which contributes only to 15% of the GDP, it leads to low wages and low incomes for those working in this sector. Through innovation and technology, we can raise our productivity in this sector, which will be very good news for the country. The Prime Minister and the government allocating more funds is thus a timely step.

Historically, India has underinvested capital in Agriculture. While work has been done in research and improvement of soil quality etc., but substantial CAPEX investments have not been made in this sector because the limited capital available was diverted to infrastructure development and manufacturing. I think this is the first government that is now recognising that a certain minimum amount of capital must go into productive capital investment in the agriculture sector. Today, as we are surplus in food production, we need to look into the food processing industry and in the next 10 to 15 years, aim to become a provider of high quality and nutritious food to the rest of the world. There is a big market for that.

Praket Arya: Recently there has been a lot of controversy regarding the MSP (minimum support price). The Central Government has issued 3 new ordinances, i.e. [Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Ordinance, Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Ordinance, and the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Ordinance]. Some State Governments allege that through these ordinances, the Central Government is seeking to end the MSP regime. Do you think that MSP as a measure has served its purpose and is now no longer required?

Shaurya Doval: I am not an agricultural economist so I would reserve my definite statement on this because people of that field may have a better idea. But what I do understand is that the limitations are the artificial interventions in the market. These have actually created a certain kind of demand and supply gap that has led to unnecessary distress in the agricultural sector. The Indian agricultural sector is now reasonably robust on its supply side. When we try to find its right equilibrium, we have to bring about changes in crop rotation, quality of crop production and processing to support farmers so that they can better meet the demands of the market, rather than trying to artificially intervene in the market through support prices. To that extent, the concept of MSP may have outlived its utility. There is also a political aspect to it; there is an element of educating the country and building consensus around it. It is very important to do that when you plan to take back something which you have already given. But maybe the time has come to have a relook at this policy. One of the inputs we have received in the last few years is that the MSP has really created supply gluts in the agricultural sector which has been to the detriment and not to the advantage of the farmers in substantive terms.

Praket Arya: After the onset of the COVID pandemic we see that agriculture and manufacturing are two sectors that have been able to sustain and rebuild because enough has been done by the government to cater to these two sectors. With respect to the service sector, the impact of the pandemic has been very asymmetric. Certain consumer-facing services like home delivery chains and online meeting spaces have seen irregular growth. Others like the hospitality industry are in complete doldrums. For a sector that is considered a Sunrise Sector and employs almost 10% of the total workforce in the country, what is the way forward? The Hotel Association of India, representing the organised Hospitality Sector is seeking a relief package from the Government and states that the sector is looking at a Rs 90,000 crore loss in revenue. What do you think the hospitality sector needs to do to revive itself?

Shaurya Doval: The unemployment numbers are now dwindling and we seem to have done better than anticipated. After the reversal of the lockdown, the unemployment numbers have shown a significant dip. In agriculture, it has come down to 6.6% and in urban employment, it is down to 9.5% from a high of 26% in May. Our overall unemployment rate today is lower than what it was in March as we went into the pandemic. Overall, as far as the manufacturing and agricultural sector is concerned, the unemployment rates are looking healthy and it means that the level of economic activity has indeed started.

With respect to the hospitality and the service sector, I think the government must continue to provide support for as long as it is needed to ensure that this sector does not get obliterated. This sector is a very important sector of our economy and governments all over the world right now are doing whatever it takes to support the core sectors of their economies. We are expecting that some parts of this sector will be able to bounce back owing to domestic demand, but in case the pandemic continues and the lockdowns and curbs on travel continue for some more time, I think it is but reasonable to expect that the government will need to continue its support to these sectors.

Because when we seek to become a solid economy, an economy that survives through cycles, we have to groom our sectors. This has been done by all the major economies in the world. What it means is that they have borne years of losses but not allowed their industries to collapse, so that when the cycle turns, their industries can move forward. As an example, in the financial service sector post the financial crisis of 2008, the United States did not let all of its banks go down. The Federal Reserve intervened and actually ensured that after one or two banks had gone down, the financial system of the United States did not collapse. I think the Indian government needs to recognise that the service sector will remain a mainstay for an upwardly mobile Indian population. It is the sector which has allowed us to reap the benefits of globalisation because it is essentially our service sector that has allowed us to accelerate our growth. There are limitations to what we can improve in the agriculture and manufacturing sector as they will take a long time. So, even if it means that the government has to actively support the service sector, particularly the hospitality sector and the air travel sector, then it must do so. And it has many instruments to do that such as monetary stimulus, fiscal help etc. In my view, the hospitality and aviation sectors seeking support from the government is legitimate, and it is my expectation that the government will do whatever it can for them.

Praket Arya: In a program held by the Institute of Chinese Studies in July 2020, China’s Ambassador to India pointed out that “92 per cent of Indian computers, 82 % of TVs, 80 % of optical fibres, and 85 % of motorcycle components are imported from China.”^[4] How did India’s economy come to this extreme level of dependence on China? Is it, as Harvard Economist David Landes, who wrote Wealth and Poverty of Nations, suggested that technological superiority allows countries to enforce aggressive economics i.e. quote unrealistic prices to obliterate industries in unsuspecting companies/countries, manipulate currency, deploy prison labour to cut costs, follow few labour standards, artificially cheapen factor costs (esp. land), steal IPRs, and repeatedly use military power to browbeat one and all or is it something else?

Shaurya Doval: While India is partially responsible for allowing such a high volume of imports from China in certain key sectors, the Chinese have much to answer for. China joined the WTO in 2004 and told the world that it was a market-driven economy. This apparently was not so. Now, the European Union has brought out a legal case against China, on its claim that it is a market-driven economy. Between 2004 to 2020, we lost 16 years believing that China was playing by the same WTO rules that the rest of the economies of the world were following. India should not have fallen into that trap, but given the fact that India was one of the players in the market-driven economy, it had to abide by the rules of the organisation. As a result, India’s trade deficit with China rose to as high as USD 63 billion by 2017-18.

India became a victim because we were unaware of the subsidies provided to Chinese manufacturers and of the banking structures they had. China underpriced its goods and infringed Intellectual Property Rights (IPR), which consequently reduced the costs. Not just India but the whole global economic order became a victim, and it is only now that the world is reacting to it. India has done some kind of course correction in the last few years as a result of which the real trade deficit fell from USD 63 billion to USD 48 billion. But it’s still a pretty big number. It will take time for countries like India to recognise that there is a reason why we ended up with 92% computer components and 80% of TV components coming from China.

India will need to change course with respect to its core industries and build in these capacities so that this anomaly can be corrected. The lesson learnt is that democracies and open economies can compete only on a level playing field. When organisations like the WTO are unable to ensure that some large economies play by the same rules, it creates a level of disequilibrium in the market where those playing by the rules are placed at a disadvantage. India will now have to enable import substitution of these technologies while trying to build these capacities internally and join the global supply chain by the dint of its competitiveness, technological innovation, product superiority and not by underhand market practices.

Praket Arya: The first round of financial stimulus was around about 1 to 2 months ago now. India Inc is expecting a second round of a fiscal stimulus. One, how soon can we expect that? Two, what do you think are the sectors and social schemes that need particular emphasis in the second fiscal stimulus if and when it happens?

Shaurya Doval: I don’t know when the second stimulus can come but I think it need not be one or two financial stimuli. It needs to be as many stimuli as needed until the economy is back to being healthy and fully operational to its normal levels of activity. If this pandemic continues to disrupt the levels of economic activity for health or other reasons, then the government must continue to infuse a proportionate level of economic support so that whatever is disrupted, can be partially made up by government support.

Praket Arya: And it may not even be a cash stimulus because that would not be very great for the financial health of the economy?

Shaurya Doval: No, it can be a combination of stimuli. The government has all the instruments available to it to provide for this. It could even be a demand stimulus. Those are the instrumentalities, but philosophically the answer to the question is that there is no red line that the government should draw and this is what the government has been doing. In the first support package, the Finance Minister stated that this is an evolving situation and our reaction will continue to be proportionate and that India will continue to do whatever it takes to support our industries to come back to normalcy. So I think that message is by and large out there.

The economy in the manufacturing and agricultural sector front has started to revive. I think where we are stressed, is in our urban centres and in the service sector. And I think whatever the government can do in the short run will be very useful in supporting these sectors to enable them to overcome this situation. Some of them have been able to build their productivity through work from home and other measures, but it may not be enough. Government support can be much more direct, whether it is to the hospitality sector or to the aviation sector etc. where it can provide the kind of financial support that these sectors need. And there is even talk of having something like an urban NREGA so that the urban workers and the urban level of economic activities that were disrupted can be managed. This will infuse confidence and help in bringing back the rural workforce to enable the level of activity in our urban sectors to come back to its normal level. I do understand that some of it might be disrupted because of health reasons because these are dense clusters and we may have health outbreaks till a vaccine is found. It is important that the Central and State Governments direct the kind of support to the sectors that need it and not try to go for a very generic response with the economy.

The earlier financial packages have been focused, giving sector by sector support depending upon their need. The success of this stands validated by the fact that once the lockdown ended, the sectors were able to come back in a significant way. So I think the government just needs to keep doing what it is doing and it just needs to get past this crisis and as a body function, not let any parameter of the Indian economy fall to a level below which the revival of that organ may be difficult. Obviously, we will have to take some cuts but we can only take those cuts up to a level where once the situation is back, the organ can go back to its normal functioning.

Praket Arya: Like my first question, if you had to make a guess, how soon can we say that the state of the Indian economy is strong?

Shaurya Doval: As I said in the start, ‘serious’ would be the state today. Nevertheless, 2021 looks very promising, with the present indicators showing revival of the sectors and a drop in unemployment numbers, which are lead indicators. Also, with the race in the world towards vaccine development, the health issues related to the pandemic are likely to be addressed. India is good at developing response systems to be able to manage public health issues, and these are all signs of a positive change. We are now in the consolidation phase. I think the first quarter of the next financial year will likely witness a revival. And from some time in the middle of next year we should be back on our economic trajectory. Nothing really has been disrupted as our factories are there and so are our people. In a convoluted manner, the pandemic has allowed us to become more focused on the economy, to realise our infirmities and to look into any strategic mistakes that we may have made and apply correctives now. I think the Prime Minister’s rallying cry of Atmanirbhar Bharat should be the focus of our economic thinkers, our policymakers, our institutions, and our industries. We must be able to get import substitution not only to cater to our demand but to also the world’s demand. We must convert this crisis into an advantage. By next year we should, most definitely, be on course.

Shaurya Doval is Member, Board of Governors, India Foundation. He is an Investment Banker with over two decades of experience in New York, London and Singapore, working with firms like Morgan Stanley and GE Capital. An alumnus of Hindu College, Mr Doval has an MBA from Chicago Booth and London Business School. He is also a qualified Chartered Accountant.

Praket Arya is an economist by education. He is an alumnus of The University of Edinburgh, Scotland, and St. Xavier’s College, Mumbai.

1. Huang,Yanzhong. “U.S. Dependence on Pharmaceutical Products from China.” Asia Unbound, Council on Foreign Relations, 2019. https://www.cfr.org/blog/us-dependence-pharmaceutical-products-china
2. FE Online, “PM Modi Launches Financing Facility of Rs 1 Lakh Crore Under Agriculture Infrastructure Fund.” Financial Express, 2020.
   https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/pm-modi-launches-financing-facility-of-rs-1-lakh-crore-under-agriculture-infrastructure-fund/2049574/
3. Mosoti, Viktor and Ambra Gobena. “International Trade Rules and the Agriculture Sector: Selected Implementation Issues.” FAO Legislative Study, 2007.
   http://www.fao.org/3/A1477E/a1477e.pdf
4. WION Web Team. “Weeks After Galwan Clashes, Envoy Sun Weidong Says China Not a Threat to India.” WION, 2020.
   https://www.wionews.com/india-news/weeks-after-galwan-clashes-envoy-sun-weidong-says-china-not-a-threat-to-india-317255

Going by the words of French-Romanian playwright Eugene Ionesco, “It is not the answers that enlighten but the questions”, Simon Anholt’s book titled “The Good Country Equation: How We Can Repair the World in One Generation” is an apt response to a prominent question faced by the planet- “Why does not the World work?”

Presented in the form of an autobiographical travelogue, the book weaves the personal and the political together in a series of anecdotal chapters. Through fascinating first-hand accounts with governments all over the world, Anholt, who has advised fifty- six countries on strengthening effective international engagement, has successfully laid out solutions for the complexities of mutual engagement between nation-states.

Anholt begins with the notion that the image of the nation determines its fate. Nevertheless, to further clarify, the Nation brand is not a product of effective propaganda. Propaganda, if worked upon generations, may work inward, but global propaganda is a myth. Therefore, uprooting the long-held beliefs and notions about a nation and planting new deliberate seeds of perception has to be an organic process. Citing references from his travels across the globe, Anholt has adequately demonstrated successful results in implanting an improved image for nations internationally.

Providing a unique perspective on nation-states across the world, Anholt has brilliantly divided the world into three timelines based on interactions amongst nations: Combat, Competition and now Co-operation. With numerous tried and tested methods to improve the nation’s image in the world, Anholt’s method has proved that the world’s behaviour needs to shift from competitive to co-operative, that all governments can cater inward self-interests while playing a useful role on a global level.

Although for most parts Anholt avoids placing much importance on the concepts and dynamics of Hard Power and Soft Power, he considers a unique identity to be of much importance for countries. He states “For smaller countries, identity is the indispensable means by which they will achieve growth. Countries that are not powerful need to be interesting”.  However, is cultural heritage, something that citizens prize as much as they should? He states that the four basic appetites that a community needs for continuity are cultural appetite, intellectual appetite, spiritual appetite and animal appetite. But in today’s age, how many countries are actually capable of catering to cultural appetites and spiritual appetites? Without satisfying these two “our tummies are full, but our souls keep rumbling” says the author.

It is difficult not to notice the informality in his approach while dealing with international relations. Nuanced description of his travel and wit loaded excerpts from his interactions with leaders of countries from around the world make the book an interesting and easy read.

The book convincingly makes the case that the interest of the self lies in the interest of the whole, which translates to the fact that governments must look beyond their inward interests, that it is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘how much’ is a nation contributing to the world.

Nevertheless, the author has acknowledged that in order to seek reigning continuity, it is not outrageous for any government to place inward interests superior to global contribution. Addressing the same, Anholt argues that humanity exhibits “mild but highly pervasive form of endemic cultural psychopathy” when the interests of other nations are concerned.

Breaking the established norm of mono-culturalism, Anholt proposes multilateralism for a practical approach to improve its “Good Country Index”. This project of Anholt does not imply good in the traditional sense of moral value judgement but a thorough rating system which reflects what a particular nation is serving to the globe. This contribution is not necessarily transacted in terms of Hard Power.

Anholt has challenged the notion that the behaviour of a nation concerning another nation depends solely on bureaucrats, foreign ministers and uppermost government officials. For any nation to improve under the Good Country Index, a more effective contribution comes even from individualist sources, like mayors for instance as he says that “the future of international community lies in the hands of mayors and governors (more than) than monarchs and presidents.”

The selection of anecdotes by Anholt from his experiences not only serve for a nuanced characterization of a place but also enable the readers to delve on the varied issues faced by nations. Through his book, Simon Anholt has attempted to simplify the complex subject of how the world works by providing a holistic view of the world we are a part of. Thus, the book serves as both a call to awareness as well as a call to action from the grassroots level.

The time for the launch of this book could not be more opportune as nations across the world continue to look inwards to seek answers in the midst of a global health crisis. In many ways, the world had come full circle from the era when humanity was lived on a conjoined supercontinent to the interconnected world of today, where it collectively faces the consequences of wars, climate change, pollution, terrorism, mass migration, extremism, habitat loss, unemployment and of course, global pandemics.

Anholt’s ideas of a global co-operative society though appear to be a distant, utopian dream, but his social experiment in the form of Global Vote hints practical possibility that might yield results. If the book aimed at positing unique, practical, and innovative ideas on humanity’s shared future, then for most parts, it delivers.

Kuldeep Badlani is a writer and researcher. He has worked on non – fiction projects on Indian Music and Borderlands as Chief Assistant Director, and Researcher.

Germ warfare refers to activities that intend to induce mortality and morbidity of living beings by the application of bacteria, virus, fungi and their derivatives. Advances in the field of biotechnology have opened new avenues for the development of airborne, highly dispersible lethal biological weapons that may cause the death of millions of people. The SARS-CoV-2 virus which originated in Wuhan, China and caused global pandemic has led to speculation about the origin of the virus and the possibility that the virus has laboratory-based origins. While the use of biological weapons in war is not new, the impact of biological warfare on societies would be devastating. Besides state actors, such weapons falling into the hands of terrorist groups and militant organisations would also pose serious security challenges across the globe, with unimaginable consequences. This article aims to discuss the scientific and biotechnological prospective of biological agents and various microorganisms and the molecular mechanism of their potential candidature as bioweapons.

Biological weapons (BW) are weapons which contain replicating infectious and lethal forms of life including bacteria, viruses, fungi, protozoa, prions, or poisonous chemical toxins produced by living organisms. They have a strategic and technical advantage in wars because of their easy availability, low production costs, easy transportation and dispersal, and non-detection by basic security systems. These biological warfare agents (BWAs) multiply in the host and get transmitted to other individuals leading to a widespread disease with high morbidity and mortality. These disease-causing biological agents have been used to degrade combat capabilities of enemy forces at the war front. In the last few decades, several incidences of bioterrorism and biological warfare research and development have been recorded. As the world witnesses rapidly evolving geopolitical power shifts and competition, some countries, despite being signatory members of the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapon Convention (BTWC, 1972) have started showing interest in biotechnological, genetic engineering and synthetic biology tools to develop highly potent and deadly chimeric biowarfare agents. Extensive covert research is getting established under vaccine and enzyme development programmes to modernise and weaponise the genetically engineered human pathogens to develop highly contagious strains that would defeat all the barriers of immune systems and current medical treatments. These researches include weaponising highly contagious, antibiotic-resistant recombinant novel strains and synthetic chimeric viruses to aerosolise and develop powder formulations for direct loading into munitions and cluster bombs.

Next Generation Biological Weapons

The technical application synthetic biology and genetic engineering tools can be strategically misused to transform harmless bacteria and viruses into lethal warfare agents with enhanced infectivity, pathogenicity, virulence, survivability and drug resistance. Political and military leaderships need to be made cognizant of the risks, threats and the impact of offensive biotechnological warfare attacks by potential state/non-state bio-terrorists, so that response activities for early prevention, detection, assessment, rapid response and recovery can be implemented.

The biowarfare agents are classified into six major groups^[i]:

1. Binary biological weapons: This includes a dual component system, consisting of a pathogenic host strain and a plasmid bearing virulence genes. These are first individually propagated at a large scale and then mixed for transformation within the munition, acting as a bioreactor and subsequently deployed as a bioweapon. This technique can be misused to enhance the virulence of human pathogens, causing anthrax, dysentery and plague etc.
2. Designer genes: Decoded and available whole-genome sequence data of pathogenic microorganisms, advanced genetic engineering tools and techniques can be misused to design, reconstruct desired virulence genes for creating novel lethal pathogens.
3. Designer diseases: Advanced molecular and cellular biology understanding can be misused to create designer pathogens to develop designer diseases with desired symptoms of a novel hypothetical disease. Somatic or germ cells can be targeted through inducing immune suppressive effects or inducing apoptosis, enhanced cell proliferation causing major tissue or organ system destruction.
4. Gene therapy based bioweapons: Retroviruses can be misused as vectors to introduce the desired gene in mammalian cells. These viruses integrate into the human genome while overcoming all the barriers of the natural defence system of the human body.
5. Host swapping diseases: Zoonotic diseases where a pathogenic virus has a natural animal reservoir can be swapped to humans through codon manipulations. Animal viruses can be humanised by genetically modifying to utilise preferential human codons.
6. Stealth viruses: Viral agents bearing human oncogenes can be illicitly transferred to human genomes. Exposing stimulus to initial dormant transduction can activate oncogenic determinants present on the stealth viruses which can destroy the human population.

Construction of synthetic infectious agents:

Living systems can be engineered with novel pathways by redesigning natural biological processes using synthetic biology tools. Whole-genome sequence data can be used to artificially synthesise, design, reconstruct virulent effector elements and genes with requisite pathogenicity to create infectious dwarfed genomes or genomes resembling natural human pathogens (for example synthesis of bacteriophage and mycoplasma genome). The first artificial bacteriophage, φX174 of 5386 bp genome was synthesised and stitched to produce biofuels^[ii]. T7 bacteriophage of 39,937 bp genome was redesigned by refactoring to generate chimeric bacteriophages by removing and replacing genetic segments maintaining replicative and functional activities^[iii]. Systematic mutagenesis  researches helped in understanding the minimal genome content essential for maintaining cell viability and supporting cell replication for Mycoplasma genitalium ^[iv]. The study led to the synthesis of the first dwarfed 582,970bp genome of Mycoplasma genitalium and construction of a slow growing M. genitalium to a synthetic, prolific designer strain M. mycoides^[v].

Synthesis of native or chimeric viruses: Synthetic virology tools assist in the construction of chimeric viral genomes with designer elements, in-vitro phage assembly, and development of efficient delivery systems.

1. Synthesis of the 1918 Spanish flu virus: Gene sequencing and RT-PCR technique was applied to reconstruct the first genome of the 1918 Spanish Flu from eight viral RNA segments recovered from lung tissue autopsy samples of pandemic victims^[vi]. Later using reverse genetics, the first synthetic virus was constructed. Different variants were reconstructed and studied for factors contributing to the severity of the disease, antigens and glycoproteins for attachments, mutations linked to epidemics in humans and birds, components of viral capsids required for assembly etc.^[vii]
2. Synthesis of poliovirus: First artificial poliovirus was constructed using cDNA synthesis. Twenty-five different mutations were investigated in cell lines and animal models for infectivity, pathogenicity, virulence and oncological features associated with the viral genome^[viii].
3. Synthesis of human endogenous retrovirus (HER): HERs includes a class of degenerate human retroviruses that infested human genome million years ago. Using synthetic consensus sequence and site directed mutagenesis, infectious proviral particles of HERV were generated^[ix]. Further, using whole-genome synthesis, another proviral clones of HERV were generated and studied for infection on human cell lines^[x].
4. Synthesis of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIVcpz): Viral nucleic acid strings were isolated from faecal samples of wild chimpanzees, and by deriving consensus viral sequences an artificial simian immunodeficiency virus (SIVcpz) was synthesised. This was further used to produce infectious molecular clones of immunodeficiency virus and investigated for cross-species transmission and host adaptive responses to viral infections^[xi]
5. Synthesis of SARS-like coronavirus: Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and artificial clones of SARS-CoV were created by exchanging the receptor-binding domain (RBD) with that of human SARS-CoV capable of infecting human cell lines and animal model mice.^[xii] The repertoire of acquired research on human adaptation, virulent genetic loci and assembly of the designer pathogen can be misused to design deadlier viruses and pathogens.

In vitro packaging of viral genomes:

Arming DNA synthesis, and sequencing technologies in the genetic engineering arsenal have advanced the construction of the whole genome of viruses with desired pathogenic properties. Biological understandings of host-pathogen interactions, mechanism of infection, detailed mechanism of the packaging of viral genomes can be used to synthesise host-specific chimeric constructs with enhanced infectivity. Researches are accessible which are used for in vitro packaging of chimeric viral genomes for the assembly of infectious viruses.

All the researches shared above are published on various web research portals with experimental details and protocols which are accessible internationally. The initial intent of these studies is to use biotechnology for saving lives by understanding the mechanism of host-pathogen interaction for the development of vaccine, antimicrobials, therapeutics, biofuels etc., but the threat & risks associated with dual-use remains. The biodefense, biological security strategy and associated preparedness measures starts when the associated dual risks are understood, and the understanding is advanced and a step ahead to proactively prepare and engage in countering, preventing, mitigating the threats associated.

Biodefense and Bio-preparedness: technologies and strategies for Biowarfare agent detection

Biowarfare is an evolving and emerging national and global security threat with a potentially catastrophic economic, psychological, and social impact. To counter this, several countries have proactively established their comprehensive biodefense institutions and security strategies to strengthen early and efficient detection, protection, and decontamination of biowarfare agents^[xiii]. Advanced molecular and microbiological sensing techniques such as antibody-based immunoassays, cellular fatty acid profiling, flow cytometry, nucleic acid-based detection, mass spectrometry, microbiological culturing, and genomic analysis can be used for primary identification of biological agents. Efforts are being made across the globe for the development of highly efficient, reliable, sensitive, and selective technologies and system for detection and identification of BWAs.

Major technologies available for detection include:

1. Microbiological culturing: Microbiological culturing is the conventional, highly reliable and specific method for the isolation and identification of biological agents such as bacteria, fungi, and viruses. Microbes are cultured on selective media, and viable microbes can be studied for morphological and biochemical characterisation.
2. Flow cytometry: This technique involves the scattering of laser light and emission of fluorescence by excitation of dyes linked with bacterial cells. Fluorescently labelled monoclonal antibodies are used for detection and identification of various Biowarfare agents such as anthracis, B. melitensis, botulinum toxin, F. tularensis, and Y. pestis.^{[xiv] [xv]}
3. Cellular fatty acid-based profiling: Bacterial strains can be identified based on the variability of their fatty acids structures and profiles. Cellular fatty acids are converted to fatty acid methyl esters which are analysed by gas-liquid chromatography. GC chromatograms generate fatty acid fingerprints that are specific and employed for the identification and characterisation of various biological agents such as anthracis, B. mallei, Brucella, B. pseudomallei, F. tularensis, and Y. pestis.^[xvi]
4. PCR based detection: This molecular biology technique is sensitive and rapid for identification of biowarfare as compared to conventional microbiological techniques. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is used to identify an organism based on the presence of specific DNA sequence(s) in the organism. PCR-based identification has been reported in the case of various biowarfare agents such as anthracis, C. burnetii, filoviruses, F. tularensis, Y. pestis, and chimeric viruses such as Zika virus, yellow fever virus, Ebola virus, and Mengla virus.^[xvii]
5. Immunological methods: This technique is based on antigen-antibody interactions for identification of BWAs. The cell surfaces posses specific antigens to which antibodies bind and form a detectable coloured complex. Enzyme linked immunosorbant assay (ELISA) for example, is used for the presence or quantitative detection of antigens present on the agent. It is efficient, economical and readily employed for the detection of biowarfare agents such as anthracis, B. pseudomallei, B. mallei, Brucella abortus, Ebola virus, F. tularensis, Marburg virus, toxins, and Y. pestis.^[xviii] Fluorescent microscopy can be used, where a fluorescent labeled antibody is attached to bioantigen present on the surface of the agent. Immuno-histochemical based methods have been used to detect CHKVs^[xix]. Other, hand-held immuno-chromatographic assays (HHIAs) performed on nitrocellulose or nylon membranes, based on lateral flow immunoassays can be used to detect B. anthracis, B. abortus, B. pseudomallei, botulinum, F. tularensis, smallpox virus, Ricin toxin, variola virus, and Y. pestis^[xx].
6. Next-generation sequencing (NGS): NGS techniques are highly specific and rapid can be used to sequence multiple DNA fragments of bacterial and viral BWAs from clinical or environmental samples simultaneously. This technology has been tremendously used in diagnostics development, for identification and differentiation of novel infectious agents. NGS has been used for anthracis and Y. pestis. F. tularensis detection in human clinical samples of unknown etiology.^[xxi]
7. Bio-sensors: These are analytical devices that generate an electrical signal when interacting with analyte present in BWAs. The biological response produced is converted to a detectable form by the transducer, which marks the presence of any biowarfare agent in the sample. Biosensors are highly specific, selective, efficient in electrochemical detection of biowarfare agents. Immuno-biosensor consisting of bismuth nanoparticles (BiNPs) has been developed for anthrax PA toxin detection in a particular sample.^[xxii] Other electrochemical immunosensor includes gold and palladium bimetallic nanoparticles, genosensor loaded with gold nanoparticles, and gold nanoparticles and graphene transducer etc.^[xxiii]

Surface plasmon resonance (SPR) is another rapid and specific technique that has been reported for detection of BWAs like B. anthracis, botulinum neurotoxin, Brucella, Staphylococcus enterotoxin, and Y. pestis.

Piezoelectric biosensors have been developed for detection of F. tularensis, and staphylococcal enterotoxin A in milk samples.^[xxiv]

Bio-preparedness against next-generation biological agents

Bio-preparedness against BWAs includes the development of effective and safe preventive and treatment measures against infectious diseases. Biotherapeutics includes vaccines, chimeric proteinacous toxins, specific proteins, oligonucleotides, ribozymes, peptide based drugs and RNAi based antivirals which by blocking viral entry, inhibiting viral replication, cleaving target RNAs and inhibiting mRNA translation selectively killing the infected cell.

Chimeric or designer viruses as candidates to develop a vaccine

Chimeric viruses are efficient, affordable candidates for the development of vaccines against contagious viruses. The dual potential of the chimeric virus as a biotherapeutic or biological warfare agent is a covert and overt challenge. Few examples of chimeric viruses to develop vaccine:

• Chimeric Zika virus (ZIKV): Zika virus is a single-stranded RNA virus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes which causes congenital neurological complications. Recently, a chimeric virus was constructed by swapping antigenic surface glycoproteins, and capsid anchor of yellow fever virus with the corresponding sequence of pre epidemic ZIKV isolate^[xxv]. Various tissue culture adaptive mutants were made and tested in mice model. In the same year, another group constructed chimeric Zika virus strain which was integrated into yellow fever virus attenuated backbone. The chimeric strains were investigated for Neuro-invasiveness in cell line and animal model.^[xxvi]
• Chimeric West Nile virus (WNV): West Nile virus causes infection in blood samples of vertebrates. A chimeric virus was prepared by coexpessing Dengue serotype and West Nile^[xxvii]. This vaccine construct was investigated for mutations to improve immunogenicity and viability.
• Chimeric Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV): A chimeric CHIKV vaccine was constructed by using three recombinant viruses as the backbone, i.e., sindbis virus, vaccine strain of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus, and eastern equine encephalitis strain expressing CHIKV structural protein genes.^[xxviii] This chimaera developed immunogenicity and robust neutralising antibody response in both immunocompetent and immunocompromised mice model. More chimeric vaccine candidates were prepared using structural genes of CHIKV and nonstructural protein genes of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus. The chimeric constructs were less infectious in CHIKV vector Aedes aegypti with lower dissemination as compared to the wild strains.^[xxix]

Decontamination technologies

Traditional decontamination systems to minimise adverse effects caused by hazardous biological agents include bleach and decontamination solutions. Localised small-scale remediation can be done using decontaminant solutions such as hydrogen peroxide, chlorine dioxide gas dissolved in water, phenolics, sodium hypochlorite, and quaternary ammonium compounds, or decontamination foams. Large-scale remediation can be done by fumigating with chlorine dioxide gas. Other tested and reported decontamination agents include ethylene oxide, glutaraldehyde, hydrogen peroxide vapour, peracetic acid, ortho-phthalaldehyde, ozone, and para formaldehyde. The alcohol solution is useful for hard nonporous and 70% alcohol solution decontaminates almost biological contaminates.^[xxx]

Autoclaving, dry heat, thermal washer disinfection, ultrasonication and sterilisation are other commonly used decontamination procedures. Ionising and non-ionising radiations, thermal energy, and reactive gases produced by plasmas can also be used for the decontamination of biological agents.^[xxxi] A portable arc-seeded microwave plasma torch for decontamination of BWAs is available.^[xxxii] Highly reactive plasma in a highly energised state effectively oxidised and destroyed all the biological agents. Vacuum cleaning with HEPA filtration is also an effective decontamination method which reduces the particulate load to allow effective remediation.^[xxxiii]

Development of novel decontamination systems against biowarfare agents with a key focus on practical, economical, fast, nontoxic, and specific decontamination should be prioritised. Ideal and eco-friendly decontamination technologies that focus on selective and effective disinfection of biowarfare agents are still in the infancy stage.

Conclusion

The strategic use of technology like bioweapons can be camouflaged as a natural outbreak of diseases with the capability to destroy human population, livestock and crops and cause other economic damages. The dual potential of advancing genetic engineering and synthetic biology can be exploited for the synthesis of next-generation bioweapons, eventually increasing the risk of biological warfare. All critical biological data such as decoded genome sequences of pathogenic bacteria and viruses are accessible through various national and international depositories. Researches on essential genes, virulence factors, or synthetic constructs with humanised infectious elements are accessible, which can be misused to develop designer genes, designer disease and next-generation bioweapons for bio-terror attacks. At present, global biodefense technologies for detection, protection, and decontamination are limited. There is a massive gap in knowledge, technology and strategy for preparedness which needs attention.

The scientific community must proactively engage for competent and dedicated scientific collaboration required for the rapid development of biodefense solutions to counter any probable biological attack. Sharing of scientific knowledge within the scientific communities is the critical pillar of safe scientific development. Reported incidences and evidence indicate an asymmetric correlation between offensive and defensive biowarfare strategies. Domestic laws against the use of bioweapons need to be enacted. The Biological and Toxin Weapon Convention (BTWC) needs to be strengthened through a legally binding instrument. Strict vigilance, enforcement and compliance of the provisions of the BTWC, the dedicated national portal for bio-surveillance and extended bio-intelligence network for information exchange between the countries is needed. It is essential to develop a national decision theatre and a dedicated wing in civil and military administration for biodefense and health security network. Developing specialised biodefense laboratories, promoting community immunisation program and awareness campaigns are the key initiatives for effective management against and biological incidents and catastrophes. A comprehensive national biodefense strategy needs to be developed and operationalised to support the nation’s ability to proactively prepare and develop essential defensive tools such as diagnostics, vaccines, antibiotics and other therapeutics.

Dr Aakansha Bhawsar is Research Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi and Dr Sudeep Shukla is Principal Scientist, Environment Pollution Analysis Lab, Bhiwadi, Rajasthan.

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Edited by Shakti Sinha

Publisher: Pentagon Press

Price Rs. 795/-

Book Review by: Aanchal Pannu*

This compendium edited by Shakti Sinha, released amidst the current political uproar in India-China relations, has come at an opportune time. The book consists of a series of essays mapping out India-China relations through the millennium and earlier. It considers the many myths that China has masked itself under, and works to unravel distinct questions about the history behind the country and its relations with India. In today’s age, where information released in the media is more often than not taken with a grain of salt, this book provides a comprehensive history of India-China foreign affairs, separating fallacies from facts, establishing and analysing the origin of the relationship between the two ancient nations. The first essay shows the far-reaching cultural influence of Indian civilization across what is now mainland China.

The author adds particular emphasis onto the region of Uttarakuru (now Xinjiang) and how the Indians of the post-Vedic era had an impact on the region’s language, culture and religion. The book takes on a rich narrative moving through the ages from the time where the parent languages Prakrit and Sanskrit were still in use across the landmass. From there the book carries on to the early relations between Ladakh, Bhutan and Tibet; a point which the author correlates with the influence on Indo- Tibet relations during Nehru’s time as Prime Minister. And later the book delves significantly on the occupation of Tibet and Xinjiang by the People’s Republic of China, an issue that is under debate to this date. The essay focuses not just on the occupation of the country, but the effect it had on trade relations, cultural ties, and politics of Tibet for times to come. The book brings out the nuances of the history between India and China as well as the surrounding territories that were affected, influenced, or in some cases occupied by China. While most accounts on the topic go as far back as the colonial and postcolonial era to understand the conflicted and tug-of war like relationship the two countries share, in this case, the book means to establish a firmer grasp on the millennia-old history that has culminated to the current standing and relations both countries hold.

Here, three of the 14 chapters of this book provide a brief of the history before and during *Aanchal Pannu is an Intern at India Foundation and a student at FLAME University. Her research areas are Defense and Strategic Studies and Foreign Policy. that of the Colonial era and from the 4th essay, the book proceeds its journey in the relatively modern history of the countries. With a chapter on the history of the Indo-China border dispute and with the current flare-up on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), it provides the necessary context to understand why the border has been and continues to be under contestation since the McMahon line came into existence. In our recent memory of the tug-of-war like alliance that India and China seem to possess, the beginning of what appeared to be a growing animosity from China’s side came to a head in talks leading up to the 1962 Indo-China War. Two of the essays that form this book cover the reasons that informed the rather violent dispute and shook India out of its pacifist stupor leaving a deep dent in the two countries’ impressions of the other. The rest of the book brings us back into the 21st century to answer our questions about the current status-quo between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping.

The Galwan scuffle and how India chooses to react both in terms of our military response and well as our political response is taken into analysis. The book looks into China’s choice of the battlefield in Ladakh, what India can do to strengthen its capabilities, and reviews the politics of the case. One chapter argues for an amendment to the Rules of Engagement due to the lack of regard for them by the opposition, which inevitably puts the Indian Forces at a potentially fatal disadvantage. Aside from a strategic perspective on the issue, the book also addresses the political effects after delving into the Wuhan and Mamallapuram Summits in 2019, where both leaders attempted to keep the matters calm, yet both sides appeared to lack consensus in the case of the disputed boundary. The book then moves into the different external powers that play a role in this- the influence of Pakistan and the United States, Tibet, and Taiwan, taking into account China’s current Belt and Road initiative. The book finally ends with an analysis of the Chinese Communist Party and speculations of what could have caused this outbreak of blatant military coercion towards India on the front of the LAC and the aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea affecting- Vietnam, Philippines and other south- east Asian countries. The speculation stands that it could be a dodge from the world-wide accusation and conspiracy around the Corona Virus being a deliberate human-made concoction on the part of China.

Overall, this book ties up the medley of the different interactions shared by India and China throughout history. Each of the events written about in this book has very clear consequences that effect both countries and their current perspectives of their position in the world order. The book connects these instances in an uninterrupted flow that makes understanding the context of these exchanges effortless. In light of the ongoing geopolitical tussles, it makes for an ideal read to gain an overall understanding of India and China’s ancient and very convoluted relationship.

Aanchal Pannu is an Intern at India Foundation and a student at FLAME University. Her research areas are Defense and Strategic Studies and Foreign Policy.

John Adams once said, “… a Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever”.^[i] It is true that the Government is the entity that regulates the functioning and relationships between one country and another, between a state and its subjects, between a state and another state and between one individual and another. In the pursuit of exercising this power, at times the Government exceeds its governance over the very constitutional rights and liberties which are enshrined in the Constitution for the purpose of safeguarding the rights of its subjects in the interest of justice and equality. In the particular instance of violating such a Constitutional right, when the power of control and governance overshadows the rights and liberties of the subjects of the Constitution, it is important that an intervention is made by the Judiciary which is entrusted with the duty of protection and preservation of the rights and liberties of the people. Article 25 of the Indian Constitution not only confers a fundamental right on every person to freely propagate any religious belief but it also provides freedom to profess all the activities prescribed and sanctioned by that religion subject to certain restrictions. There is a wide safeguard provided and guaranteed by the Constitution whereby the word “to  practice” the  religion has been stated in Article 25. In order to ensure that the properties belonging to the various religious denominations are administered along with all essential rites and rituals prescribed by the said religion with complete autonomy, subject to certain restrictions, Article 26 has played a pivotal role in this regard. Article 26 (d) of the Constitution terms it to be a violation of a right if any law takes away the constitutionally granted right of such administration from the ambit of the religious denomination.

Every institution has the right guaranteed under Article 25 of the Constitution to practice and propagate freely, the religion of which the individual and her/his followers adhere to. Article 26 of the Constitution of India provides a religious de- nomination the right to establish and maintain institutions for religious and charitable purposes, to manage its own affairs in matters of religion, to own and acquire movable and immovable property and to administer such property in accordance with law. Subject to public order, morality and health, every religious denomination or any section thereof has the right to administer its property according to law. Hence, the administration of its property by a religious denomination has been placed on a different platform from the right to manage its own affairs in matters of religion. The latter is a fundamental right which no legislature can take away, whereas the former can be regulated by laws which the legislature can validly impose.

The language of the two clauses (b) and (d) of Article 26 bring out the difference between the two at the first instance. Regarding affairs in matters of religion, the right of management given to a religious body is a guaranteed fundamental right which no legislation can take away. However, regarding administration and functioning of a property which a religious denomination is entitled to own and acquire, it is certain from the intention of the Constitution of India that the right to administer such property is undoubtedly with the administrative body of the religious denomination, provided it is in furtherance of law. This would mean that the state can regulate the administration of a trust property by means of validly enacted laws; but here again it should be remembered that under Article 26 (d), it is the religious denomination itself which has been given the right to administer its property in accordance with the law. In the case of Commissioner Religious Endowments v. Lakshmindra Swaminar, it was stated that any law, which overpowers or takes away any right of administration as a whole from any religious denomination and vests it in any other secular authority, it would stand strictly in violation of the right guaranteed by Article 26 (d) of the Constitution.^[ii]

The Supreme Court has held as follows:- “As regards Art. 26, the first question is, what is the precise meaning or connotation of the expression ‘religious denomination’ and whether a Math could come within this expression”. The word ‘denomination’ has been defined in the Oxford Dictionary to mean ‘a collection of individuals classed together under the same name; a religious sect or body having a common faith and organisation and designated by a distinctive name’.”^[iii]

Hence, to invoke Article 26 of the Constitution, ‘Sevaks’ who are the people/staff working for the deity at a religious premise have to prove two facts that:-

• They established the temple,
• They have maintained the

The Supreme Court has laid down the distinction between right of ‘religious denomination’ to manage its affairs in matters of religion and to acquire movable and immovable property and to administer such property in accordance with law in the celebrated judgment in the Sri Shirur Mutt^[iv]case. In Para (17) of the judgment, the Supreme Court has held as follows:-

“It will be seen that besides the right to manage its own affairs in matters of religion, which is given by clause (b), the next two clauses of article 26 guarantee to a religious denomination the right to acquire and own property and to administer such property in accordance with law. The administration of its property by a religious denomination has thus been placed on a different footing from the right to manage its own affairs in matters of religion. The latter is a fundamental right that no legislature can take away, whereas the former can be regulated by laws that the legislature can validly impose. It is clear, therefore, that questions merely relating to administration of properties belonging to a religious group or institution are not matters of religion to which clause (b) of the Article applies. What then are matters of religion? The word ‘religion’ has not been defined in the Constitution and it is a term which is hardly susceptible of any rigid definition. In an American case^[v], it has been said “that the term ‘religion’ has reference to one’s views of his relation to his Creator and to the obligations they impose of reverence for His Being and character and of obedience to His will. The above explanations and definitions stand strong to advocate the fact that the Articles 25 and 26 of our Constitution are based for the most part upon the Article 44 (2) of the Constitution of Eire and it is highly unlikely that the definition of ‘religion’ as stated above could have been in the minds of our Constitution-makers when they framed the Constitution. Religion is purely a matter of belief and dedication in one’s faith amongst individuals and the communities at large and not necessarily theistic. There are well-known religions in India like Buddhism and Jainism which do not believe in God or for that case in any Intelligent First Cause. A religion undoubtedly has its basis in a system of beliefs or doctrines that are regarded by those who profess that religion is conducive to their spiritual well-being, but it would be incorrect to say that religion is nothing but a doctrine or belief. A religion may not only prescribe directives and rules for its followers to accept and abide, it might also prescribe rituals and observances, ceremonies and modes of worship which are regarded as integral parts of religion.”

In a landmark case of Dr. Subramanian Swamy v. State of Tamil Nadu & Ors^[vi], the Apex court expressed its firm support towards the administration of a property by a religious denomination stating that the control and management of a religious property must remain with the ones bestowed with the authority and responsibility to maintain and administer. The Government can have the general right to regulate and act in providing its support to the above- mentioned cause in the field of preserving law and order, health and sanitation, and various other welfare standards. However, it cannot seek indefinite control over the administration of any religious denomination.

It is pertinent to mention that in the famous judgment of Ratilal,^[vii] The approach taken by the hon’ble Supreme Court was liberal, whereby it was not only faith, beliefs and ethical codes of conduct that were playing an integral part in professing a religion but also the rituals, ceremonies, and practices that played an essential role in the following and belonging to a certain religion.

In a matter dealt by a single bench of Calcutta High Court, Justice Bhagabati Prasad Banerjee wrote:

“…The concept of Tandava  dance^[viii]  was not a new thing which is beyond the scope of the religion. The performance of Tandava dance cannot be said to be a thing which is beyond  the scope of religion. Hindu texts and literatures provide [for] such dance. If the court started enquiring and deciding the rationality of a particular religious practice then there might be confusion and the religious practice would become what the courts wish the practice to be.^[ix]”

The above text makes it clear that the judicial system of our country is of the opinion that subject to certain mandatory restrictions, the control over administration and professing any religion should be bestowed on the religious denomination, not the government. Furthermore, Article 27 of the Constitution of India provides that no person shall be compelled to pay taxes, the proceeds of which are specifically appropriated in payment of expenses for the promotion or maintenance of any particular religion or any religious denomination.

Articles 28, 29 and 30 of the Indian Constitution are in consonance with the abovementioned provisions of the Constitution. The Hon’ble Supreme Court in Aruna Roy v. Union Of India^[x] held that there is no prohibition in imparting religious instructions, which clearly signifies that once religious knowledge is attained, the subjects to that religious belief may profess and practice the same. In a very popular case, also known as the National Anthem Case^[xi], the Division Bench stated that a person may not sing the National Anthem if he has genuine conscientious religious objections. This depicts the seriousness allocated to the importance of freedom of religion promoted by the Indian judiciary. Article 29 and 30 hold the hands of the minorities and provide them with the strength and safeguards in the spheres of protection of their rights to establish and administer educational institutions which enable them, irrespective of their religious beliefs and language, to learn and profess any preaching or religious belief they desire. Judiciary has time and again played a pivotal role in protecting the freedom of religion and the religious denominations from falling in the hands of the government.

In the significant case of Sidhrajbhai Sabbai^[xii], the minority Christian society which was running several primary schools along with a Teacher Training College in Gujarat was involved in a litigation with the State of Gujarat. The State heavily tried to interfere with the admission policy of the college and the matter was taken up in the Hon’ble Supreme Court, where the Court found that there was a severe contravention by the State in the rights of the college against Article 30(1). The Apex Court stated that the state may intervene in the aspects of health, sanitation, discipline and public order in improving the facilities provided to the college but none of it can prejudice the right conferred upon the college under Article 30 of the Constitution. The Court went further ahead in stating that the regulatory measures of the state could only be in the interest of the minority institution.

Articles 14, 15, and 16 of India’s Constitution providing religious freedom and right to equality are the backbone of all the above-submitted contentions. It is not essential to understand that the reading of the above Articles provides an overview of the framers’ intention. The same was evident from the reading of the text that freedom to practice and have faith in any religion is provided equally to the subjects of the Constitution. It is this freedom and equality provided to them under the Constitution that enables them to profess and administer the properties belonging to their religion in their own manner, subject to certain restrictions provided by our laws. But nowhere it can be inferred that the Government should be free to interfere and take absolute control over any religious denomination under the garb of regularising the administration and affairs of the premises of the religious denominations.

In the recent Sabrimala Temple^[xiii]case, where the judicial intervention was requested, there were few contradictory opinions provided by the Hon’ble Judges. One of the opinions was that the exclusion of women from the temple effectively rendered their right under Article 25 meaningless and Article 25(1) protects the fundamental right of women between the ages of 10-50 years to enter the Sabarimala Temple and enables them to exercise their freedom of worship. Furthermore, it was stated that there was sufficient material to conclude that the exclusion of women from Sabarimala violated Article 25(1) and the Ayyappans’ custom of excluding women, who were between the ages of 10-50 years, from the Sabarimala Temple was unconstitutional. On the other hand, the other opinion was that the devotees of Ayyappa did not pass the constitutional test to be declared as a separate religious identity and the Ayyappas were Hindus. Hence it was stated that the temple’s denominational right to manage its own internal affairs, under Article 26(b), was subject to the State’s social reform mandate under Article 25(2)(b) which provides that the State can make laws to reform Hindu denominations. It was further stated that Article 25(2)(b) allows the State to make any law that opens a public Hindu institution to all ‘classes and sections’ of Hindus. The term ‘classes and sections’ were interpreted in a manner as to include the gendered category of women, thereby concluding that the Sabarimala custom of excluding women is subject to State mandated reform.

Contradicting the above-mentioned opinion, it was further stated that the constitutional morality in a secular polity, such as India, requires a ‘harmonisation’ of various competing claims to fundamental rights and the Court must respect a religious denomination’s right to manage their internal affairs, regardless of whether their practices are rational or logical. The instant case of Sabarimala Temple satisfies the requirements for beingconsidered a separate religious denomination and therefore the Sabarimala Temple is protected under Article 26(b), which provides it a right to manage its internal affairs and is not subject to the social reform mandate under Article 25(2)(b), which applies only to Hindu denominations. Further stating that in Article 26, denominational freedom of religion, is subject to ‘public order, morality and health’ and ‘morality’ (constitutional morality) must be understood in the context of India being a pluralistic society; therefore, the State must respect the freedom of various individuals and sects to practice their faith.^[xiv]

We are not alien to the fact that since the British era, the desire to control the Hindu temples has been in the hearts and minds of the governments as the temples have stood strong as a source of revenue. In 2017, Dr. Satyapal Singh introduced a bill in the Lok Sabha to free administration of the temples from the government’s clutches. The bill emphasised on the state having no religion and being a secular entity. There has always been a widespread grievance that Hindu temples and religious charitable institutions are routinely taken under the clutches of the secular state in the name of maladministration, mismanagement and misappropriation of funds etc. whereas, on the other hand mosques and churches belonging to the minorities are exclusively administered and regulated by their respective communities exercising their right under Article 26. MP Dr. Satyapal’s bill in an emphasizing manner stated that the states under Article 25 shall not control any institution or property established maintained and administered for any religious purpose as the acts performed by the government under veil of controlling the temples are unconstitutional and discriminatory.

The landmark judgment of Sri Marthanda Varma (D) Thr LRs & Anr. v. State of Kerala & Ors., also known as the Padmanabhaswamy Temple Case,^[xv] proved to be a consensus between religion and politics in the society wherein the rights of the royal family of Travancore were upheld in respect to the administration of Padmanabha- swamy Temple situated in Kerala which is also considered to be the richest temples in the country. By doing so the Supreme Court had set aside the verdict of the Kerala High Court wherein the Kerala Court had directed the State Government, that in order to take control of the temple, a trust be created. The hon’ble Supreme Court upheld the “Shebaitship” of the family of Travancore originally responsible for taking care of the temple and conferred upon them all the rights towards the administration of the property as the trustee, thereby bestowing upon them the rights over the property as a manager responsible for management, preservation, administration of the property and also the right to defend the property against all odds which is provided under the statute also. It can be clearly inferred from the above decision that the judiciary too stands for the rights and freedom of a person with respect to his religion as conferred upon him by the Constitution of India.

Since independence, the administration of the temples has been under the control of monarchs who have always been very closely affiliated to the ceremonies and rituals carried on as traditions in the temples, and there were some questions which were raised whenever the state tried to interfere to gain control over any religious denomination. If the State has professed itself as ‘Secular’ body, how can it affiliate itself with the administration and well-being of Hindu Temples? And will it be just for the State to utilise the specific wealth from the Hindu Temples and use it for its own purposes? These are some important concerns that need to be addressed. One of the most common justifications given for the above questions would be that the Devaswom board/committee of elected persons by the Government would only control and administer the secular actions/functions of the temples and the rest of the religious functions would be left unhindered. But the truth has always been that the above mentioned functions were inseparable and hence their control could not be diluted.

Therefore, in conclusion it can be stated that the right conferred upon a person by the Constitution cannot be violated by any government or administrative authority subject to exceptions whether the right pertains to the right to life, right to freedom and dignity, right to belief and profess any religion and hence, also the right to practice and administer the various religious denominations pertaining to that religion. However, this conclusion will attain legal significance only after the hon’ble Supreme Court of India decides the best judicial direction and conclusion to this debate of bestowing the power of control and administration on the side which constitutionally deserves so, by adjudicating in the matter of Jagannath Puri Case.

*Siddharth Acharya is an advocate practising in Supreme Court of India, Delhi High Court, District Courts and various Tribunals and Appellate Tribunals. His practice areas include Insurance Law, Banking Law, Commercial Arbitration and Public Interest Litigation. Siddharth Acharya has done his Law from Government Law College, Mumbai University in 2014 followed by Post Graduation Diploma in Securities Law and later on Masters in Business Laws from National Law School of India University, Bengaluru.

References:

1. ^[i]Adams, (1876), Familiar Letters of John Adams and His Wife Abigail Adams: During the Revolution (Combridge: The Riverside Press).
2. ^[ii]AIR 1954 SC 282; P.Mittal v. Union of India (1983) 1 SCC 51.
3. ^[iii]The Commissioner, Hindu Religious Endowments, Madras Sri Lakshmindra Thirtha Swamiar of Sri Shirur Mutt AIR 1954 SC 282 : (1954) 1 SCR 1005
4. ^[iv]AIR 1954 SC 282
5. ^[v]Davis Benson, 133 U.S. 333
6. ^[vi]Supreme Court of India, Civil Appeal No. 10620 of 2013.
7. ^[vii]Ratilal Panachand Gandhi State of Bombay AIR 1954 SC 388.
8. ^[viii]Tandava dance is a religious cult performance practiced by the Ananda Marg Sect. The use of lethal weapons and human skulls are a part of the dance.
9. ^[ix]Acharya Jagadiswarananda Avadhuta Commissioner of Police Calcutta AIR 1984 SC 51 10
10. ^[x](2002)6 SCALE 408
11. ^[xi]Bijoe Emanuel V. State of Kerala,1986
12. ^[xii]Rev, Sidhrajbhai Sabbai V. State of Gujarat, AIR 1963 sc 540
13. ^[xiii]2018 SCC OnLine SC 1690
14. ^[xiv]2017-20 © Center for Law and Policy Research and www.sci.gov.in ( Writ Petition (c) No. 373 of 2006)
15. ^[xv] SLP (C) No. 11295 of 2011 and SLP (C) No. 12361 of 2011

This essay will explain the title I chose to give it. The global strategic alignments taking shape at   present manifest geopolitical concepts that evolved in the 19th century and influenced the game of alliances and rivalries throughout the last six score years. We are all aware that geography is a permanent feature of the planetary reality which casts history in its mold. Sometimes time folds like a sheet of paper in the shape described by Moebius to bring us back to the period when Britain, ‘ruling the waves’, feared the challenge of the Russian Empire, the hegemon of Eastern Europe and Eurasia, whose borders rapidly drifted towards India. Some new actors, the United States and China have joined the fray and become its central figures but the older ones have not fundamentally changed sides or ambitions.

The Rise and Applications of Geopolitics

In 1904 the British geographer and member of the Privy Council, Halford Mackinder^[i] ‘officialised’ the dialectical opposition between continental Asia and its centre the ‘heartland’, and its oceanic girdle dominated by the United Kingdom, all the way from Glasgow to Hong Kong, along a string of bases and friendly harbours which included Lisbon (thanks to Portugal’s alliance with the Court of St James), Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus, Port Said at the mouth of the Suez Canal, Aden, Karachi, Mumbai, Colombo, Penang and Singapore.

Around Africa the Empire had thrown a necklace of ports of call and possessions such as Madeira, the Gold Coast (Ghana), Sierra Leone, Nigeria, the Cape Colony, Kenya and Somaliland. Access to the East Indies and China was thus well protected from potential enemies and rivals whereas London’s diplomatic ties with Paris and The Hague ensured that no threat to British ships would come from the French and Dutch possessions in Africa and South East Asia.

Mackinder articulated his fear about the threat posed to this long but fragile sea lane, the umbilical cord that connected the British isles to their worldwide domain by an expanding Russian empire whose fleets by then had won access to the Mediterranean through the Black Sea and which controlled Northern Iran as part of a longstanding design to reach the ‘warm waters’ of the Indian Ocean. To the East, the Tzars had opened a ‘window’ to the Pacific at Vladivostok and Port Arthur. According to Mackinder, the Russians were well on their way to establishing their hegemony over all of Asia as they owned its heartland and had extended their dominance over Mongolia and Northern China, taking advantage of the continuing decline of the Middle Kingdom.

Around that time, Westminster took coordina- ting actions to forestall these perceived threats. A series of agreements with Russia in 1885 to 1907 put an end to the decades-old ‘Great Game’ in which the Tzars had sought to subjugate neutral Afghanistan and reach the frontiers of India. By forming the Triple Entente, London, Paris and Saint Petersburg made a common front against Germany and her allies. By striking a treaty with Japan, England helped the Mikado’s armies to stop at Port Arthur the Russian surge towards the China Sea in 1905. The South of Iran and the Arab Gulf principalities were already under British ‘protection’ in order to close off the Arabian Sea to rival powers. At that point, the sole challenger left to the ‘Empire on which the Sun never set’ was the land-hungry German Reich with its confederates Austria-Hungary, Italy and the declining Ottoman empire.

A few years later the First World War, initially seen in Westminster as an opportunity to clip the wings of the rising German eagle, brought about a planetary political seism. The Russian Empire disintegrated in the wake of the October Revolution but was rebuilt in the form of the USSR which took over the geopolitical legacy of the Tzars, including their ambitions in Iran (where Northern Azerbaijan long under Russian control was made into a Soviet Republic) and the Far East where chaos had overtaken China after the fall of the Qing dynasty in 1911.

However, when Hitler rebuilt German power in the thirties (with massive American economic and industrial support), Britain and France saw the USSR as a necessary ally against the new Reich and willy nilly agreed after the second world war to let the world be divided into zones of influence respectively dominated by the United States and the Soviet Union which had come to an understanding to defeat Nazi Germany, together with the British Empire. Once more the ‘rimland’ empire of England and its former American colony allied with the heartland in order to beat a third power which challenged them both. However, as soon as the Third Reich ceased to exist the ‘natural’ antagonism between Russia and the Anglo-Saxon thalassocracies was revived.

Civilizational and Ideological Foundations

No political and strategic project can be sustained sans the support of an ideological construct which can be racial, national or supra- national. The two contending visions now broadly defined as Atlanticism and Eurasianism with their multiple corollaries are no exception to this psycho- sociological principle. Great Britain justified empire building by arguing that her monarchy tempered by liberal parliamentary democracy was superior to all other systems and enabled her to become the most industrialized and the biggest trading state from the early 19th century. At the theological level, the British head of state claimed the succession of the monarchs of Israel, tangibly symbolised by the ‘Stone of Scone’ (An Lia Fail) said to be Jacob’s Pillow and the throne of the kings of Judea. As such the British ruler was the ‘defender of the (Christian) faith and his nation was the ‘New Israel’ (Brit-Ish was said to be derived from Ish- Brit: in Hebrew, the ‘men of the Alliance’ forged between God and his Chosen people).^[ii] Over the centuries this semi-theological racial notion came to be extended to the ‘English Speaking Peoples’^[iii] and was celebrated by Rudyard Kipling, Cecil Rhodes and many other promoters and bards of the Empire.

Mackinder and other western geopoliticians such as Alfred Thayer Mahan and Nicholas Spykman belonged to that school of thought. They sought to preserve the thalassocracy rimland-based hegemony of the Anglos from the threats posed by rival cousins (the Germans) and steppes ‘barbarians’ (Russians and East Asians).

The USA, inheritor of the Anglo-Saxon and Celtic heritage was to see its relative ethnic homogeneity dissolve as growing waves of immigrants washed ashore from the old continent. British individualistic but hierarchical Liberalism harking back to the Magna Carta had been radicalised into the egalitarian precept of ‘liberty’ although it was understood by many of the founding fathers that the future Federal Republic had to impose some limits on democracy. Less than a century later Abraham Lincoln saw it as his duty to breach the principle of ‘free and voluntary union’ when he proclaimed that the US federation had some sort of divine character and that secession, though constitutionally lawful would be prevented even at the cost of civil war^[iv].

In the wake of the mass new arrivals in following decades, the concept of ‘melting pot^[v] was devised to facilitate a merger of diverse incoming ethnic groups into the ‘English’ matrix even though racial stratification endured and created a hierarchy which kept the descendants of old British-Dutch settlers above the German, Jewish, Irish, Latin and Hispanic-Americans whereas Native populations and Blacks remained at the bottom. In the sixties, the limited and largely utopian ideal of ‘melting pot’ was replaced by the more realistic description of the United States as a ‘salad bowl’. Yet the power of American popular culture, promoted by an effective propaganda machine driving rampant consumerism enabled the Anglo-Saxon foundational ingredient to absorb and dilute most other socio-linguistic components while the Jewish factor, long suspected and disdained became dominant in most spheres of the new social and cultural architecture.

In all former lands and dependencies of the British Empire, English has entrenched itself as the elite medium of communication and shown its resilience and ability to displace and sometimes snuff out native tongues as shown by the fact, one among millions of such instance, that a French author has penned this article for an Indian publication in the language of the former colonizers.

In a way, the original colonial construct combining the English language, Constitutionalism, the Judeo-Protestant Bible and the commercial and financial vocation (‘The business of America is business’) is still the glue that binds the USA together and Samuel Huntington was perhaps the most influential voice to call for its revival.^[vi] Whereas the British Crown upheld the supremacy of the imperial race of Saxons, Normans and Scandinavians and encompassed the diversity of the subjected peoples in the ‘ornamental’ trappings of traditional theocratic power. The American Republic adopted ‘E Pluribus Unum’ (Out of many the One) to meld the settlers, refugees and exiles that swole its population into one Anglophone, howbeit hybrid community.

The vision that Washington and Hamilton had of the thirteen colonies’ future as a new republican Britain prevailed over the more cosmopolitan and ‘classical’ preferences of Jefferson (who wished ancient greek to become the national language) and also over the ‘nativist’ instincts of Benjamin Franklin.

The opposing ideology to Atlanticism has long been defined as ‘Eurasianism’. Its infancy can be found in the first imperial Russian state when it absorbed a number of Slavic, Siberian and Turkic elements, pushed back the Teutonic Knights and defeated the Mongol Golden Horde. It hence acquired a unique identity on the fringe of Europe and yet distinct from it. The cement of the syncretistic state which proclaimed itself ‘autocratic’ (to affirm its sovereignty and independence from the former Turco-Mongol overlords) was the Orthodox Eastern Christian faith. The Tzars saw themselves as heirs to the Byzantine Roman Emperors and protectors of medieval Greek Civilization. Moscow was the second Constantinople and as such the Third Rome. In that capacity, the Russian State challenged the Holy Roman (German) Empire and claimed a leading role in European affairs as well as in West Asia but the decentralised hierarchy of Eastern Christianity led the Russian state to acknowledge the autocephalous legitimacy of the Greek, Georgian, Armenian, Bulgarian, Serbian, Syrian, Assyrian and other patriarchates. It also extended tolerance to religious minorities as an effect of its ethnic pluralism while it drew ideas and practices from the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, England, Sweden and Persia. In the 18th century, the Russian elites welcomed French Enlightenment before a religious-nationalist backlash led to its official condemnation following the failed Decembrist coup. In the 19th century, Danilevsky enunciated a comprehensive pan-Slavist Eurasian thesis^[vii] which had a far-reaching influence on his contemporaries and on some notable Soviet intellectuals.

It was however after the fall of the Romanov Empire that the Eurasian doctrine was fully defined by Anna Akhmatova’s son Lev Gumilev who essentially summed up elements of a continentally autochthonous and syncretistic Russian civilizational theory^[viii] occasionally alluded to by Pushkin, Gogol, Tyuchev, Tolstoy and other great writers and artists while expurgating it from the Christian religious legacy. While Soviet Communism brought a radical break with the Christian, spiritual and monarchical traditions it also harked back to some atavistic memories of slav collectivism and orthodox anti-liberalism. In the early years of Bolshevik rule, some of its elite dreamed of a fusion between the ideal of the ‘Communist Man’ and the Buddhist concept of the Bodhisattwa as known in Mongolia and Tibet, viewed by those Eurasianists as an enlightened superman^[ix]. Arnold Toynbee has a point when he argues that the conversion of the Russian Empire into the USSR protected the Eurasian landmass from being sucked into the liberal western orbit ^[x].

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the correlative economic and political eclipse of Russia, a ‘neo-Eurasianist’ doctrine has evolved in Russia under the leadership of nationalist intellectuals and economists such as Alexander Prokhanov, Alexander Dugin and Sergey Glaziev in the Izborsk Club and has become at least one of the sources of inspiration of the Federal State. Under the joint impulsion of the Russian Federation and of the ex-Soviet republics of Kazakhstan and Belarus, the Eurasian Economic Union has taken shape and has expanded to other Central Asian and Caucasian states. It is an economic counterpart to the Collective Security Treaty Organization which provides military coordination between most of those countries for the common defence. Thus a structure to protect the ‘Heartland’ is newly in place.

The Role of China, Iran, and India

Mackinder regarded the Far East, including the Chinese Qing Empire as a part of the periphery, perhaps because being a white supremacist like most westerners of his time he did not foresee the ‘yellow’ nations playing a powerful role on a level of equality with the then-ruling Europeans and North Americans. In the prior two centuries, the Middle Kingdom had lost much of its western and northern tributary lands to expanding Russia and it exercised only nominal suzerainty over Tibet. Indeed since more than two millennia, China had been regularly invaded by western nomadic conquerors which the famed Great Wall was erected to keep out. However other observers had predicted that if the Celestial Empire ever regained its clout it would again seek to expand into its erstwhile dependencies both in Indochina and towards the west.

The Maoist takeover of Eastern Turkestan renamed Xinjiang (the new territory) in 1949 and the reassertion of control over Tibet in the following year (Tibet had unilaterally declared its independence in 1912) fulfilled those age-old claims and paved the way for the pursuit of further ambitions. Since 2013 at least the Chinese doctrine for economic expansion has been articulated around the well known historical narrative of the transcontinental and maritime silk roads whereby Beijing has affirmed its manifest destiny as a Eurasian and oceanic power. In a way, China picked up the Russian Razvitie project^[xi] for the comprehensive development of Eurasia and Siberia along both east-west (from the Netherlands to Korea) and north-south (from Norway to Iran) axes, hitherto hampered by the Kremlin’s economic difficulties and the US imposed sanctions. China also joined Russia’s plan to develop the Arctic sea route as a shortcut from the Far East to Europe and gave a new lease of life to the prospects for transcontinental cooperative development.

So far in Central Asia, Siberia and the Arctic ocean the PRC’s success hinges on Russia’s cooperation whereas in the China Sea and the Indian Ocean the Chinese merchant fleet and navy must deal with a powerful American military presence seconded by a chain of regional allies, stretching from Japan in the north to Australia in the south and potentially India to the west.

So China and Russia are for now tied by common interests in the Eurasian continent and by a mutual need for protection from the hostile Anglo- centric powers. Their competing claims in the heartland are however not easy to reconcile in the long term and their respective attitudes to India and Vietnam, for example, evince their divergences. Beijing takes an unyielding revisionist position vis-a-vis these two countries and aggressively lays claim to some bordering territories they hold (for India certain areas of the Himalayas and the Spratly and Paracel islands for Vietnam). Russia, on the other hand, maintains close relations with New Delhi and Hanoi and does not support China’s claims which create misgiving among all her neighbours and impede Asian economic and strategic integration.

India so far has remained on the fence of the Eurasian convergence project as it fears the prospect of the PRC’s hegemony for which the Shanghai Cooperation organization paves the way. The latest border clashes between the Chinese and Indian armies in Ladakh in June 2020 have elbowed New Delhi further towards the US- sponsored Indo-Pacific Quad quasi-alliance.

Another traditional pivot power is Iran which was bitterly disputed between the British in the south and the Russians in the north for much of the 19th and early 20th centuries. Since the Islamic Revolution Tehran has formed strong economic and strategic relations with the Kremlin while developing extensive economic links with China and retaining its traditional cultural and trading bonds with India. The prolonged American attempts to force Iran back into the ‘rimland’ league have failed and the military occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan on both sides of the country has resulted in costly failures for the US armed forces.

An alternative to aligning with the Heartland Sino-Russian compact or with the Anglo-Saxon- led rimland coalition has been proposed by India in the form of a ‘neutral’ Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) but in binary world order (which reflects the anthropological mindset) third options are generally neglected and its very name seems to condemn IORA as all of its member-states to fall prey to Sino-American rivalry which is at play in that wide area. The rising pressure applied by the USA on Iran has deeply damaged Indo-Iranian economic and diplomatic linkages which is a further sign of the ongoing regional realignment. While China becomes the Islamic Republic’s main partner New Delhi moves closer to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

We have also briefly evoked another important rimland state, Turkey which has in the past repeatedly switched sides between the European continental and maritime powers (Britain, France, Germany) but has a dominant central Asian ethnolinguistic identity and is a traditional foe of Russia due in part to the contested Byzantine legacy.

However, geography and its logistical implications tie Turkey to its greater region around the Black Sea and the Mediterranean more than to the distant Atlantic powers. In Syria and towards Iran, Erdogan’s government has had to acknowledge the need to take into account the major neighbours to the north and east despite his personal contrary impulses.

From The Cold War to the New Great Game

We need not cover in detail the history of the years from 1945 to 1990 when the USSR disintegrated, putting an end to the bipolar world order that emerged after the war. Following half a century of nearly frozen conflict between the Anglo-American Atlantic Compact and the Soviet led-East, the abrupt decline of Russia left the USA in a globally hegemonic position but it coincided with the emergence of China as a factory to the world which ten years later joined the WTO and rapidly rose to economic prominence. From 1971, at the very same time that it gutted the Bretton Woods monetary system by abandoning the gold standard for the US currency, the Nixon presidency struck a near-alliance with China which effectively implied that the People’s Republic rejoined the ‘rimland’ league against the Soviet-dominated heartland.

In the nineties Beijing, thanks to China’s fast- growing power came into a position to bring the heart of Eurasia, formerly a part of the defunct USSR, under its influence and this project, as we have said earlier has been officialised as the Belt and Road initiative (BRI).

From the year 2000, China’s economic and strategic rise was accompanied by the revival of Russia’s geostrategic dynamism. The two continental-size countries were brought together by common interests, in order to protect themselves from an overbearing ‘sole superpower’. The 2007- 08 financial crisis and resulting recession durably weakened the western NATO bloc and accelerated the decay within the US political and economic system, exposed by the so-called ‘sub- prime’ debacle. From 2010 Chinese leaders felt that global predominance was within reach for the People’s Republic while Moscow could hope to rebuild its old commonwealth of the ‘near abroad’ from the borders of Poland and Romania to the boundaries of Korea and Iran. The complementari- ness between Chinese and Russian economies helped the Kremlin and the Forbidden City to paper over their old misgivings and differences for the sake of mutual benefit.

The vision of an economically consolidated Asia expanded to its western European peninsula as well as to its oriental outer belt (the Koreas, Japan, the ASEAN nations) and to its southern flank (India, Iran and the Arab crescent) began to take shape in the plans of both Moscow and Beijing.

A riposte from the United States and its close allies and tributaries was expected as the ‘incumbent’ superpower system could not let itself be dismantled politically and economically by the rival ‘Eurasian’ alliance. The attack on China, Russia and Iran, the three ‘poles’ of that triangle from Washington rose in intensity in the second decade of our century even as the entanglement between China and the USA grew in scope and complexity. Multiple complaints of cyberattacks were raised against Beijing and Moscow by American state agencies and corporations. The Russian Government for its part was accused of committing gross human rights violations and of assassinating certain Russian dissidents or exiles in the West and at home on the basis of unproven claims made by American and British Intelligence sources, resting on weak premises and often outlandish logic^[xii]. As we know Iran was continuously under fire for its alleged nuclear ambitions and opposition to the positions and plans of the US and the latter’s regional allies Israel and the Arab monarchies^[xiii]. The leading western powers have also openly intervened in border areas such as Georgia, Ukraine and Hong Kong in the name of supporting democracy and human rights. Whatever we think of the internal issues in those jurisdictions we cannot be blind to the fact that there is a coordinated strategy from the ‘Five Eyes’, the Anglo-Saxon alliance of the US and leading British Commonwealth  states  to weaken the real targets (Russia and China) in order to prevent them from going ahead with their long-term continental projects. On the larger canvas of Europe, the US and Britain have also undertaken a series of actions to prevent Europe from moving towards autonomous unity and from linking up with Russia and China economically and technologically. BREXIT, an intense campaign of attrition against German finance and industry (especially intended to prevent the completion of the Nordstream II project) and a constant propaganda barrage against Russia’s government and society are part of that multi- pronged project aimed at defeating the Eurasian consolidation scheme even at the cost of depleting further the already suffering western economy. In a way, the imperial American plan stole a page from Israel’s ‘Samson Option’ (risking self- destruction in order to annihilate the enemy) and put it into its global operational manual.

Who will win?

Moves and counter-moves are taking place across the global chessboard as we write. The Russian and Chinese agreements with Venezuela help the potentially richest country in Latin America to remain a bridgehead to the US backyard. While Russia has solidified its positions in Syria and Libya, China and Iran are preparing an ambitious 25 year economic and strategic partnership agreement^[xiv]. Iran, China, and Russia are all active in Iraq. Beijing and Moscow both have developed various common interests with Turkey despite President Erdogan’s unpredictable double game between east and west. India and China are at loggerheads over long- standing border disputes but are also deeply involved with each other in matters of trade and investment although the economically asymmetrical relationship, howbeit mutually beneficial threatens to degenerate into all-out reciprocal hostility if it is not managed better and if India is pushed by China’s overbearing behaviour into a US- dominated Pacific alliance.

Geographically South Asia, Indochina and the Malayo-Indonesian islands are part of Mackinder’s oceanic ‘outer belt’, together with Australia and the Washington-London axis hoped that independent India could at some point be added to what was formerly the SEATO alliance under whose shadow ASEAN was created. Likewise in the Gulf and West Asia which Spykman described as the southern rim, western powers are militarily and economically entrenched, mainly in Saudi Arabia and the other Arab kingdoms and expect Iran, under the pressure of sanctions and threats of war, to shed at some point its anti-American, anti-Israeli stance and become once again an ally as it was until the 1979 Islamic revolution.

We have already seen that Europe and Africa are also contested territories where both the opposing blocs have major assets and interests. As a result, the principal continental nations of Europe as well as most African states tend to hedge their bets while balancing the influences of the respective powers as India itself is doing. A fading NATO, given a step-motherly treatment by the Trump administration is no longer holding the western bloc together. The French President Emmanuel Macron has said that it is ‘brain-dead’ and other nations keep their options open as they can no longer depend on American backing. Germany, traditionally the main NATO pillar, well aware that it is targeted by Washington for ‘downsizing’ refuses to raise its military budget to the 2% of GNP required by the White House and shows greater interest in the development of an ‘All European Army’. On the other hand, Poland and other Eastern states continue to rely on their alliance with the United States to keep Russian and German pressure under control. However few now fear that a military clash between the ‘heartland’ and ‘rimland’ power will take place on the European theatre, simply because the US is too far and cannot hope to win such a conflict without the full support and participation of its NATO members which is in doubt. The Western Pacific and the South Asian belt, somewhere between Iran and the South China Sea contain more flashpoints between inimical nations and are of greater interest to both the USA and its principal adversaries.

The key question which should take priority for American decision-makers is whether Russia and China can continue to remain on the same side in this planetary contest or whether China which Nixon and Kissinger saw as part of the ‘rimland’ as Mackinder and Spykman had, will eventually lose its Russian partner due to the Kremlin’s fear of becoming Beijing’s satellite. Donald Trump clearly seeks to bring Russia into the ‘Atlantic’ Camp in order to isolate China, reversing Kissinger’s anti-Soviet strategy which led the US to build up the PRC as a global industrial power. However the policy-making community in the US seems consumed by an aversion to Putinist Russia which makes such a rapprochement unlikely at best.

The globalist thinking dominant in the ruling circles is that China is a major economic engine of world economic integration whereas Russia is seen as a dogged opponent of this neo-liberal (and neo- conservative) project.

The British and the Americans in the first half of the 20th century wanted China to be a subsidiary ally of their ‘common’ empire and they would still like to find a way to tame the Chinese Communist Party as they have hoped since 1971. However, as the reality of western decline in the face of the PRC’s meteoric economic rise sinks in the urge to slay the Dragon is taking over the Anglo-American establishment and that new priority can only bring Beijing closer to Moscow. Mackinder and his disciples would have warned of the danger for the western alliance to lose both the heartland and the main power in the far-eastern rimland (China) which cannot be defeated without a major internal upheaval that might bring down the government. Likewise, Putin’s national policy doctrine is now institutionalized in Russia by the recent constitutional reform and it will be much harder for foreign forces to turn the country around as long as the majority of the people and the elites find their common interest in staying the generally ‘protective’ sovereign course.

The west is on a losing track as long as it is wedded to a form of capitalism less and less viable in the face of a worsening financial and structural crisis which pushes the US Government and others to adopt arbitrarily protectionistic measures, slap sanctions on ‘inconvenient’ nations and threaten or use extortion and naked force whenever possible.

Immanuel Wallerstein predicted that Russia and Europe were fated to come together by geography, history, culture, strategic convergence and economic complementarity^[xv]. On the other hand, he saw China and the USA finding a modus vivendi as the two industrial and financial superpowers facing each other on opposite shores of the Pacific which is surrounded by the most dynamic and fast-growing countries of this century. Events of the last few years belie his forecast as the PRC and the USA engage in an increasingly bitter contest while an ideological iron curtain – or rather a NATO fence – still keeps the EU and the Russian Federation apart. India’s options are narrowing^[xvi] and New Delhi’s ability to remain a ‘hinge’ power is in doubt as many of its experts and decision-makers are calling for alignment with the Anglo-Saxon led Indo-Pacific league. Yet India’s strategic ambivalence is a source of strength as it keeps opportunities open on all sides and protects the country from the risk of being dragged into a war for issues that are not of direct national concern. For one, India has little to lose in the South China Sea dispute, whatever its outcome which would damage only the contending coastal states.

At the dawn of the last century, the major European countries had joined opposing alliances in the belief that they would keep the peace and protect them from attacks. In fact, the system forced the escalation of a tragic incident in June 1914 into a continental five-year fratricidal massacre. Today Asia should beware of falling a victim to the new version of the Great Game.

*Come Carpentier de Gourdon is currently a consultant with India Foundation and also the Convener of the Editorial Board of the WORLD AFFAIRS JOURNAL. He is an associate of the International Institute for Social and Economic Studies (IISES), Vienna, Austria. Come Carpentier is also an author of various books, several articles, essays and papers.

References:                                                                                                                                 

1. ^[i]The Geographical Pivot of Histoy (1904) and Democratic Ideas and the Politic of Reconstruction (1919), Halford Mackinder.
2. ^[ii]Our Israelitish Heritage (1844), John Wilson and Israel in Britain (1890), Col. Garnier among other books.
3. ^[iii]A History of The English Speaking People, (156-58) Sir Winston Churchill (Cassel)
4. ^[iv]The Real Lincoln (2003), Thomas J Di Lorenzo.
5. ^[v]The Melting Pot (1908), a play by Israel Zangwill. The concept seems to have first been applied to the USA by Hector St. John de Crevecoeur in the 19th century.
6. ^[vi]Who Are We – The Challenge to America’s National Identity (2005) Samuel Huntington.
7. ^[vii]Russia and Europe – A look at the Cultural and political Relations of the Slavic World to the Romano-German World (1895) Nikolay Danilevsky
8. ^[viii]Ethnogenesis and The Biosphere of Earth (1978), Lev Gumilev
9. ^[ix]A Study of History, Volume I (an abridgement of Volumes I-VI) 1998, Arnold Toynbee and DC Somerwell, (OUP).
10. ^[x]Red Shambhala – Magic, prophesy and |Geopolitics in the Heart of Asia (2011) Andrei Znamenski (Quest Books).
11. ^[xi]Razvitie development of the Eurasian Continent – An Integrated and Cooperative Project, Vladimir I Yakunin in, World Affairs, Autumn 2014, vol. 18, no. 3.
12. ^[xii]Many of the charges raised against the Russian Government (Magnitsky, Litvinenko, Skripal, cyber-interference in elections, the downing of Flight MH-17.et al.)mainly by the US and the British States in the last few years remain unproven, rest on undisclosed and anonymous sources and are worded as ‘highly likely’ and as reflecting an alleged ‘high degree of confidence’ of the accusing Intelligence agencies. They clearly dovetail the wider political and strategic objectives of the Anglo-Saxon powers and have been received with widespread scepticism, especially outside the western alliance. It is difficult not to see them as elements of an ongoing propaganda war designed to prevent a dreaded the rapprochement between the old adversaries (the western and eastern blocs).
13. ^[xiii]One of many reports of an intense campaign of sabotage, bombings and assassinations in Iran: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/12/sabotage-sanctions-and-the-bullying-of-iran-is-bound-to-backfire-on-the-west?CMP=share_btn_tw and in businessinsider.in ‘Israel keeps blowing up military targets in Iran hoping to force a confrontation before Trump could be forced out in November, sources say’ Mitch Prothero, July 16,2020.
14. ^[xiv]On China-Iran agreement https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3091913/iran-insists-potential-deal-china-not-secret?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=share_widget&utm_campaign=3091913
15. ^[xv]Alternatives: The US Confronts The World (2004) and World Systems Analysis – An Introduction (2004), Immanuel Wallerstein.
16. ^[xvi]https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/heartland-reunion-geopolitical-chimera-or-historical-chance/ by Andrey Kortunov.

The recent flare-up and unstable conditions along the length of the India-China border or the Line of Actual Control (LAC) have led to a spate of speculations and discussions on the goings-on and their future ramifications. Fuelled by an over-active, hyper Indian media, comment- aries on the situation have virtually eclipsed those of politics and cricket matches, which generally hold center court. There seem to be more specialists in speculation than strategists who can paint the correct picture.

Notwithstanding the hype and holler, the on- going confrontation between India and China could have serious consequences that merit deep introspection and definitive action. The unusual build-up of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces all along the India-China border, with a greater emphasis on Ladakh, does not predicate a routine skirmish between border troops but portrays an ominous portent of a sinister strategic plan. The issue needs retrieval, and means to manipulate it.

National Security

There are many factors that have led up to the morass that we find ourselves in. But the most important one is the basis of our strategic culture and strategic foresight. India is one country that

does not seem to capitalize on the factor of ‘accrued benefits of experience’ and exploit them to advantage. It is this one main reason why India has not been able to establish its National Security Strategy. Without a core direction, emanating at the highest level, it becomes impossible to create a culture or ethos among the population towards national security and infuse a sense of nationalism among the millions. History has recorded our callous and negligent approach to safeguarding our borders, therefore, our territory and sovereign integrity. The laid-back, servile attitude, born out of hundreds of years of subjugation and oppression by foreign rulers has inseminated an ethos or a mindset that suggests that we look at zealous aggressors as something that ‘will go away’ in due course.

The cutting edge or the sharp end that faces the effect of such historic debilitation is the armed forces. Sanctified by fire, literally and figuratively, at the turn of independence, the armed forces have bloodied their blade on five major occasions and have proven their mettle in many other skirmishes of lesser nature. Inhibited by an insular and non- aligned government, the armed forces have been aligned to protect the borders against two historical antagonists, China and Pakistan. Structurally designed to guard the land borders, the emphasis has been on a large ground Army, with a tactical Air Force to support it and a blasé attitude towards the Navy. Ego and turf wars between the three services have contributed to a mindset which does not permit growth or progress, thus relegating the Indian armed forces to perform less than optimally in a technology charged, high mobility environment, which is the essence of modern warfare.

Boots on the Ground

There is no gainsaying that ‘boots on the ground’ are a necessity in maintaining the security of our borders. With historically belligerent neighbors there is also the need that these boots remain dug-in and entrenched for 365 days in a year. The hostile terrain on our northern borders, is some of the most precipitous and difficult in the world. Stretching across nearly 4500 km, as one of the highest mountain ranges in the world, the Himalayas have the capacity to thwart anyone who dares to challenge its might. The unforgiving weather, with icy winds and temperatures plummeting to as much as -50 degrees is enough to deter man or beast. China has been progressively inching its way westwards and southwards, accessing footholds to eventually gain control of territory to claim as its own. Aided by a contested demarcation, loosely termed ‘Line of Actual Control’ (LAC), this imaginary dividing feature is indicative that it pushes well into recognized geographical borders and stretches across territory unashamedly retained by forceful occupation. The ill-gotten gains remain unreconciled and in a state of flux, offering opportunities to the belligerent to intrude and, over a period of time, stake claim. Since India has never fostered hegemonist views, it remains the passive recipient of intrusion by aggressors or infiltrators.

Strategic Significance Behind the ‘Stand-Off’

The necessity for the Indian Army to hold its ground to prevent infiltration has its own complications in this unforgiving area. Human endurance, maintaining morale, and motivation are a nightmare for the leaders and commanders. Provisioning of arms and ammunition, fossil fuels, communication facilities, food, clothing, and other supplies take on unprecedented proportions for the support services. The sheer effectiveness of the infantry soldier is entirely dependent on the back- up and re-supply. The means to deliver these goods will constitute the strategic backbone of the standing army.

This backbone consists of two channels. One is the surface infrastructure comprising roads, railway lines, bridges, tunnels, and secure stockpiling areas. The other channel is the supply by air, both by aircraft and helicopters. This facet of airpower, like the logistician, is little acknow- ledged but forms the vital link to the sustenance of those in some of the most inhospitable and inaccessible areas. The strategic significance of exactly this facet has triggered the recent face- off in Eastern Ladakh, between Chinese and Indian troops. The development and completion of the all-weather road connecting Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DSDBO) have brought the Chinese to express their fears and concerns, indicating the significance of this particular logistical artery. The threat to the Karakoram Highway leading to the much-prized China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has now become real and possible, exposing its vulnerability.

What has become intriguing is that the Chinese Western Theatre has deemed it (the DSDBO) significant enough to try and deny its usage at their will, by physically dominating the road from commanding heights in close, visual proximity, which brings the supply route under direct fire. The next move would be to capture enough territory to lay claim to both the road and the airhead at Daulat Beg Oldie. While China’s design is open to speculation, there is no doubt it has a larger plan in mind to annex more territory and facilitate a shorter route to reach the CPEC, through Ladakh. The noticeable change of posture is indicated by the amassing of an inordinately large number of troops in the immediate vicinity with a rather pronounced effect being projected by the presence of armoured vehicles, an unprecedented development. On the other hand, a look at the geography on China’s side of the LAC clearly discloses the convenience of terrain for the development of military infrastructure. A far-sighted strategic perspective and a defined expansionist policy have contributed to China pumping in financial and industrial resources to develop the BRI and associated infrastructure in areas of strategic significance. Anticipating a military resistance to their designs of expansionist ‘creeping’ towards India, they have carefully planned and created a network of all- weather roads, with suitable supply points or nodes in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR), virtually in our backyard.

The facilitation of logistics supply and armament movement in this terrain is remarkable by any standards. In contrast, the development of infrastructure on the Indian side can comparatively be termed ‘pathetic’. The usual disregard for national security and its various implications, ignoring the feedbacks provided by the Army, and not directing funds towards infrastructure projects in these difficult areas have all the hallmarks of a nation devoid of centralized direction with regard to national security, with no foresight, nor vision or strategy.

The Grey Zone of Uncertainty

The current incursion by Chinese troops is not a one-off incident, but rather it follows a pattern of small probes over random periods of time, essentially to find a path of least resistance, to establish themselves and subsequently claim as their own territory. Skirmishes range from arguments to fisticuffs to pushing, although the current one has taken on a bit of an ugly turn where precious lives were lost on both sides. Escalations hardly occur, but for the exception of two major occasions, one in 1967 at Nathu La and the other in 1986 in Sumdorong Chu. Both instances saw a reversal of result with respect to 1962, and the Chinese PLA incursions were beaten back most effectively, incurring heavy losses. The latter also saw the employment of airpower to great effect in this region.

This simmering situation is apparently a condition in virtual perpetuity with neither side willing (as yet) to get into an open conflagration. There are no clear lines in black or white, but rather the relationship remains in a festering grey zone of confrontation. There is no all-out war declared, nor does peace exist wherein the demarcation lines are given due respect, permitting troop withdrawal from the region. While Pakistan persists in waging irregular warfare against India by using terrorists to infiltrate, with China, India faces the sub- conventional situation of low-intensity conflict.

In the overall context, while China possesses a larger standing army and a far larger air force, the asymmetry must be considered in the region of significance and the application thereof, or what forces can actually be employed effectively to bear upon the other. Given the region and the terrain, there is clearly one factor that can offset the asymmetry, and that is airpower. In terrain where mobility and rapid movement of forces in armoured vehicles is nigh impossible, it would be prudent for the Indian Army to resort to a holding battle and allow air power to provide the necessary application of force.

Air Power

Airpower has proven itself as the pivot that can turn the tide of surface warfare, both over land and water, so the proclivity to delay its effective utilization in the Indian context is not understood. Militaries the world over head into conflict with their Air Forces to soften the opposition and create avenues for the progress of the ground war. Therefore, the Air Force is prominently present at the planning of the land or a sea campaign. The sheer reach and span of the effectiveness of airpower means that it must be included and integrated from the inception of the planning process. The mobility and flexibility of airpower are the factors that overcome limited resources and therefore the air component Commander or the air elements need to have a holistic picture of each planned operation. This is considered absolutely mandatory for the Commander to distinguish and distribute his air power assets for effective application in the areas of interest. The want of this synergy and understanding could be the one fatal flaw in the ethos of our strategic military planning.

1962 will remain the last blot in the annals of independent India’s military history. Emanating from a poor conceptual government appreciation for the need for a strong military, notwithstanding the struggle to retain Kashmir from infiltrators from Pakistan, the necessary mindset to safeguard our borders was lacking in the political firmament. The fearsome capability of the Indian Army and their highly acclaimed contributions in both the first and second world wars created the politicians’ fear of the possibility of the military takeover, leading to the use of the provisions of the Constitution to subjugate the armed forces as much as the political leadership could. The ill-equipped and inadequately armed Indian Army suffered from the poor direction from the highest echelons and paid the price of ignominious defeat. Why the Indian Air Force was never employed has been a subject of great review and has provided a retrospective insight into what ‘may have been’ if offensive airpower was permitted to unleash its power with telling effect on the Chinese troops who would have been defenseless against this medium. As brought out earlier, the action at Sumdorong Chu in 1986 has driven home the proof that airpower can make the difference in a war in mountainous terrains.

Escalation Woes

The escalating ground situation and the unprecedented PLA build up in the TAR has sent a rather ominous signal to India. The lack of strategic perception and strategic surveillance has led to delayed perceiving of the development and direction of this posture. This is evidenced by the frantic reaction of the Indian Army rallying its troops and investing in large formations and mechanized forces to be inducted into the Ladakh region. The government of India has also gone into high gear to acquire additional air assets to supplement the dwindling combat squadrons of the IAF—a long pending requirement. It is unseemly that it needed a crisis for basic strategic understand- ing to sink in and activate a system that has notoriously long gestation periods. The fast-tracking of the acquisition of additional fighter aircraft will still take some time for the items to be effective.

PLAAF – Strategic Transformation

The past three decades have witnessed a concerted thrust by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) to upgrade its combat airpower with the acquisition of state-of-the-art fighter platforms having a capability to carry out all-weather precision strikes. The information medium and real-time data transfer have permitted the PLAAF to create and operate in a network- centric environment, with the decision level also networked through complex Command & Control (C2) Centres. This environment has greatly enhanced the operating environment of its air power assets while at the same time, creating a more lethal atmosphere for opposing airpower.

The 1991 Gulf War had an immense impact on the Chinese leadership. The remarkable effect of airpower, which virtually won the war, brought into sharp focus, and highlighted the pathetic state of the PLAAF (in comparison) and China’s air power. Operating redundant aircraft, with inadequate training status, and virtually non-existent international exposure, motivated the leadership to pursue a purposeful military modernization program. Following the direction given by the 2015 Chinese White Paper on ‘China’s Military Strategy,’ which stated that “…without a strong military a country can neither be safe nor strong,” China capitalized on its soaring economy to fund its defense modernization program. Prominence was given to develop the PLAAF, both in numbers and technical superiority. Reneging on foreign partners by fair means and foul, China manipulated funds and efforts to acquire technology by any means available.

Thus, the strategic transformation of the PLAAF commenced, with a stated purpose of modernizing and integrating its air and space forces and accelerating its transition from a purely territorial protection AD force to one capable of both defensive and offensive operations. With its well laid out Military Strategic Guidelines (MSG), which provided the ‘basic principles of planning and guiding the conduct of the war in a modern military environment,’ the PLAAF set out to layout its priorities for strategic transformation. These included:-

• Effective Air Superiority
• Suppression of modern Air
• Develop a modern, integrated AD
• Develop Long-Range Strike
• Develop efficient Medium and Heavy lift capability through a robust transport
• Develop C4ISR through Satellites, Airborne Warning And Control System (AWACS) & Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEWC)
• Procure tankers for strategic
• Modernize and enhance the indigenous military

Technology acquisition has resulted in the PLAAF procuring and manufacturing some of the most modern fighter platforms today. China’s proclivity for reverse engineering, not to mention the misappropriation of plans and designs from foreign Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) through dubious means, has benefitted the military industry. All this has resulted in China today possessing a state-of-the-art, lethal air force with a capability spectrum stretching through the air, maritime, space, and information domains. Copying the USA’s ‘Net-Centric Capability’ maxim, China has adopted the term ‘Informati- zation’ to describe its transformation into the realm of digitized warfare. Because training and doctrine were the weak areas in the PLAAF growth chart, concerted efforts to reach out have allowed them to participate with Pakistan, their strategic partner, in Air Warfare Exercises, which have been progressively increasing in complexity. Pakistan Air Force, which participates in exercises with many other Air Forces, brings to the table a host of experience that will prove immensely beneficial to the PLAAF.

PLAAF Capability

• Fighter Aircraft. While the PLAAFs fighter aircraft arsenal is impressive, comprising SU-27, SU-30 MKK, SU-30 MK2, SU-35, J-10, J-11, J-15 (from the SU-33), J-16, J-20, and the developing J-31 in considerable numbers, extolling their performance and capabilities will only be effective when seen in the context of the region of The sheer elevation of the Tibetan plateau and the inhospitable climate for a more significant part of the year precludes the effective utilization of these sophisticated platforms. The limitation imposed by altitude on airplane engines, both jet and piston engine, is a simple case of debilitation in performance. The rarified atmosphere is not conducive to producing the suitable ‘composition,’ which allows these engines to operate optimally. The resultant loss of performance grossly impinges on the operational impact of these otherwise impressive weapon platforms. Restricted by take-off weight, aircraft have no choice but to forfeit either fuel or weapon load. Both are severe operational limitations. Freezing of fossil fuels/greases imposes further operating limitations in specific temperature conditions. Longer take-off and landing distances take their toll on tires and braking systems. Associated infrastructure like runways need to be longer, and the severe temperatures put building material and structures under severe stress, reducing their life spans. Thus, the sparingly created military airfields in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) are devoid of suitable infrastructure to support protracted operations. Until recently, they hosted fighter aircraft only in small detachments for brief training sojourns.

• A matter of more in-depth consideration and attention should be the deployment of PLAAF helicopters and UAVs in the region. While helicopters’ effectiveness will suffer because of ambient altitude, their effectiveness in negotiating the terrain and their access to troop support will play a major role in the region of operations. The PLA and the PLAAF have a fleet of Mi-8 / Mi-17 helicopters acquired from Russia, with a large back-up of indigenously built helicopters. The main backbone is the Changte Z-8, while they also have the Z-9 (Dauphin derivative), and the newly developed Z-20 (a clone of the US Blackhawk helicopter). China has invested heavily in the development and manufacture of Z-10, Z-9W and Z-19 helicopters, all of which attack helicopters of differing weight and capability, with associated firepower. It was reported last year that the Z-10 and the new Harbin Z-19 and Z-20 helicopters participated in a significant multi-grouping and multi-dimensional army support exercise. Equipped with state-of-the- art glass cockpits, NVD (Night Vision Device) capable and networked with sensors like satellites / AWACS / UAVs, the helicopters, in close support role, were able to “see over the hill” well before they approached the targets, giving them the flexibility to orientate themselves to the real-time battle scenario and plan their attack and getaway optimally in a high threat zone. The report concluded that the attack helicopters were very effective during the exercise.

• Rocket Perhaps the biggest airpower threat emanating from China that should concern us the most is their missile and rocket forces. Because of the limited capability that fighter aircraft could bring to bear in the region of conflict with India, China will probably lay greater emphasis on containing India’s air power by attempting to deny their use through pulverising attacks on IAF airbases with their missile and rocket forces. Supplementing the surface to surface missile and rocket force will be the ALCMs (Air-Launched Cruise Missiles) carried by the H-6K bombers of the PLAAF. Operating from depth airbases, utilising tanker support for air to air replenishment, the H-6K bombers could launch the Changjian-20 (CJ-20), an Air Launched Land Attack Cruise Missile (AL-LACM), which has an estimated range of 2000 kms. The warhead could be conventional or nuclear. Designed with inertial, GPS and terminal radar guidance, it is reported to possess a CEP of 5m, in other words, a precision strike weapon, normally used for strategic strikes on Centres of Gravity.

The Indian Air Force

The Indian Air Force has a well-established array of airfields confronting China. Stretching from Leh in the north, through the bases in Punjab, UP, Bihar, West Bengal, and Assam, every airfield is capable of full-fledged operations for all types of aircraft. In fact, they have a well-developed infrastructure that meets all possible necessities other than some specialist requirements specific to a particular type of aircraft or its weapons. The necessity for adequate air power to counter China in conflict across a 4500 km frontage highlights and brings to focus the consequences of delayed acquisitions for the IAF in the light of a dwindling inventory. This takes on a grave portent when it becomes necessary to offset the threat on the western front, simultaneously. The flexibility and mobility of airpower will permit the IAF to shift its assets across the frontage at will, based on the threat and requirements. While the total fighter aircraft assets may be able to cater for all sectors, these numbers do not cater to likely attrition if used in an offensive role. Like the PLAAF, the IAF in this scenario is also likely to be mainly utilized in close support to the army in conducting Battlefield Air Strikes (BAS) and Interdiction, both shallow and deep, to deny the PLA its logistics. Extensive use of helicopters would see the platforms undergoing high utilisation, providing theArmysupport in various roles, such as an attack, redeployment of troops, and casualty evacuation in the battle zone.

While the criticality of numbers of fighter aircraft is regularly talked about, in a crisis of this nature, the criticality is probably higher with respect to the availability of High-Value Airborne Assets (HVAAs) like the AWACS, AEW&C and FRA (Flight Refuelling Aircraft). If mobilisation and transfer of assets from one theatre to another is necessitated in a full frontage war, the lack of adequate force multipliers may become a factor that would decide success or failure. The IAF is woefully short of these assets in such a scenario.

In response to China’s missile and rocket force, India must make full use of its own indigenous firepower in this domain of Surface to Surface Missile (SSM) warfare. With our Prithvi series of SRBMs (Short Range Ballistic Missiles) covering distances of 150-600 kms, the Agni series of IRBMs (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles) covering distances of 700-6000 kms (The Agni V is an ICBM – Inter Continental Ballistic Missile – range 5000-8000 kms) and the new Shaurya 700- 1900 kms range MRBM (Medium Range Ballistic Missile), we have a fairly effective coverage of likely targets in China. The latest range of Surface Launched Cruise Missiles (SLCMs), the supersonic Brahmos (290 km), Prahaar (150 km), Nirbhay (1000-1500 km) have brought into sharp focus our precision strike capability with land-based missile systems.

Operational Imperatives / Analysis

The recent border conflict and the on-going impasse may not coalesce into a full-fledged war between India and China. Not willing to face a repeat of the ignominious result of 1962, India must take all measures to ensure that the results are like those achieved in 1986. The circumstances today are far different, one would assess, but given the extent of China’s threat posturing and the ominous accretion of PLA forces as India’s opposition becomes firm, the situation could precipitate into an India-China conflict. Limitations of terrain and the fact that China, like India, is faced with another possible contested front (South China Sea), will mean that the China’s Western Theatre Command will be solely responsible to exercise its authority to oversee operations across the entire frontage. As brought out earlier, limitation of operations by PLAAF aircraft in the TAR and associated regions indicates that fewer than optimal air assets can be employed in the area. The likelihood of large-scale air attacks is therefore negligible, if not, obviated. China’s highly acclaimed Peoples Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is likely to be at the forefront of the battle zones, unleashing a preponderance of SSMs / ALCMs to suppress IAFs air power from coming into effective play.

China’s fighter aircraft are likely to be restricted to air defense duties to protect its own VAs / VPs, carry out close support missions on as required basis in their territory, and attempt shallow and sporadic interdiction missions into Indian territory. In pursuit of its modernization process, China has built up a highly effective layered Air Defense system, designed to create a dense, protective, and lethal environment for any intruding aircraft. These AD assets are reportedly well integrated into a modern ‘informalized’ network providing a highly responsive and effective defensive structure. This will prove to be a significant deterrent to IAF aircraft which seeks to infiltrate deep into Chinese territory. AD systems are likely to be deployed in the mountainous region of the immediate area of confrontation.

The fact that airborne airpower is decidedly in India’s favor will not be lost on China. India needs to be up to speed to offset the onslaught of rockets and missiles that are virtually guaranteed to precede any major ground operations. Effective passive air defense measures, creation of infrastructures like hardened shelters and dissipated deployment of assets will offer safety. The vulnerability of HVAAs operating among the forward airfield zones/airspace will have to be critically assessed, and the HVAAs exposed for the minimum possible periods on the ground. This would be true for the transport fleet of C-17 / C- 130 / AN-32 aircraft that would be on a continuous supply chain replenishment duty. The factor of exposed aircraft to rocket and missile attacks will be critical for our helicopters operating out of our forward bases and ALGs. Helicopter support in mountain warfare is invaluable, and degradation will have catastrophic consequences, imposing severe limitations on-ground operations. China has created the PLA Airborne Corps, whose tasks are air and airborne assault, by paradrop and assault landing, respectively. Designed to support the main force thrust to seize and secure vital areas, they pose a huge threat to our forward airfields like Leh and Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO). The forward airfields are lifelines for Army re-supply and sustenance.

History Begets Caution

The employment of airpower in high altitude mountainous terrain was classically exemplified by the Soviets and Americans in Afghanistan, albeit in different periods of time. Some of the crucial lessons that emerged which are of significance and should be carefully studied and considered by our planners are enumerated below:-

• Weather in mountainous terrain is Severe turbulence / poor visibility can hamper operations. Weather affects targeting, even by LGBs.
• Effective attack directions are restricted and predictable, increasing the threat envelope for attacking aircraft/helicopters.
• Small and dispersed targets in vertically oriented terrain make accurate engagement
• Degraded performance of aircraft at high altitude, especially helicopters, make them vulnerable to anti-aircraft
• Specialist training for pilots is considered necessary because of the specific peculiarities that operations in mountainous terrain
• The strategic struggle of warfare in such terrain is to try and strangle the enemy’s logistics Interdiction will pay dividends.
• Forward Air Controllers (FACs) play a vital role for effective air attacks, especially in terrain where targets are difficult to
• The Soviets lost a lot of aircraft and helicopters to ground fire – they were forced to resort to long-range weapons to reduce
• The US’ Op Anaconda was a huge disaster in which they lost several Chinooks, Blackhawks, and Apache Only nations like the USA and Russia can absorb such tremendous losses.
• Both Soviet and American helicopters fell prey not  only  to  Low-Level Quick Reaction Missiles (LLQRM), but even to RPGs and heavy caliber small arms.
• ISR and updated intelligence were vital to every operation. UAV’s are a vital asset but are quite

Conclusion

The possibility of an India-China conflict in the light of the recent skirmish and the saber-rattling that is in progress cannot be ruled out, and India cannot be found wanting under these circumstances. There is no doubt that air power will play a dominant role in shaping the war in the given area of operations. In the event of a major conflict, a comparison of capabilities clearly highlights the woeful state of the IAFs airpower resources when confronted with even limited assets across the border. As long as the conflict is swift and short, our limited assets will be able to sustain; but a protracted exchange will dramatically wear out an over-stretched force. In every eventuality, China’s missile and rocket force capability must be of concern to our planners. UAVs have not been elaborated upon because of the wide variety that can be operated. They contribute as a significant airpower asset in support operations to ground forces.

The procrastination seen for decades in defense acquisitions highlights a lack of understanding in India’s bureaucracy and political establishment of defense requirements to combat a hostile neighbor. Political and diplomatic maneuvers by themselves cannot guarantee peace in the absence of hard power alternatives, which simply suggests the need to maintain a strong military. It is hoped that the existing resources serve the purpose and prove their potential if full-scale hostilities ensue. Only time and history record the successes and failures of military confrontations.

*An alumnus of NDA and DSSC, Air Marshal Sumit Mukerji has served the IAF as a fighter pilot with distinction He has commanded three units, a MiG-29 Sqn, a MiG-25 SR Sqn and TACDE (considered the ‘Top Gun’ school of the IAF) and also served as the Air Attaché in Washington DC. He retired in 2011 as the AOC-in-C of Southern Air Command.

References:                                                                                                                                 

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