Homegrown Aluminium-based solutions are India’s best bet as we aim for manufacturing leadership in E-mobility and clean energy storage

Energy for the Future

The past decade has witnessed an increasingly powerful momentum in renewable energy. The rapid demand for energy for urbanisation and industrialisation in the developing world could have been hard on the environment, but relentless efforts to improve energy efficiency and the decisive shift to clean energy has mitigated some of that adverse impact. Technological advances in renewables and supportive policies from the government have also augured well for the environment.

This new era of energy will see a significant shift towards decentralised energy production and significant investment in energy management and storage. Technology shifts in battery storage, cell chemistry along with rapid advances in electric mobility have opened new vistas. Some of the energy storage available today are batteries (lead-acid, sodium sulphur, Ni-based, Li-based, Aluminium based, flow batteries etc.), fuel cells, capacitors/super capacitors, superconducting magnetic energy storage, flywheel storage, solar fuel, pumped hydroelectric storage, compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage etc.

Every technology has its advantages and drawbacks and needs to be chosen with an eye on intended application, cost, and environmental impact.

The Indian context

India’s dependence on fossil fuels has made it the world’s third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases[1] and its cities regularly top the rankings for polluted air, putting its population at the risk of lung diseases and premature death.

India has pledged a 33-35% reduction in GDP emissions intensity from 2005 levels by committing to source 40% of its energy needs from clean energy by 2030[2]. For that to happen, a massive expansion in electric mobility and renewable energy is needed. It is also important to note that India imports oil to cover over 80 percent of its transport fuel and the country will be well served if transport fuel consumption is substantially reduced.

Against this backdrop, a shift to e-mobility is not just a necessity but also an opportunity for India to position itself as a global leader in exporting battery and e-mobility technologies and solutions.

E Mobility – Indian perspective

The Indian automobile industry is unique with two wheelers dominating the personal mobility segment.

• Two-wheelers constitute nearly 80% of the total vehicles on road.
• Three-wheelers (passenger and goods), including tempos ~ 5% of the total vehicles. This is expected to be the fastest growing segment.
• Premium four wheelers (cars) are only ~ 2% of total sales.

Globally, most of the technology development has focused on the premium end of the market; this offers India a window of opportunity to create a policy environment to promote green technology solutions for the domestic market which can be leveraged globally.

Leadership in EVs

India should develop the ambition to establish technological and manufacturing leadership in the small EV segment like two wheelers, three wheelers and small cars. These smaller vehicles require a distinct set of technological and industrial capabilities, energy networks and business models and here, India can leverage domestic scale advantage to create solutions for the world.

To fuel this segment, the Indian government has envisioned the conversion of two and three wheelers into 100% electric ones by 2030[3]. However, in India, most players have based their solutions on assembling Lithium-ion batteries using imported cells from China, Korea and Japan, resulting in high-cost E-mobility solutions.

Existing policy frameworks – FAME

The government had introduced the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME -2) scheme in 2015 to boost E mobility by 2020[4]. The outlay of Rs 10,000 Cr was to be used in offering incentives for the purchase of these electric buses, 2, 3 and 4 wheelers. Recently, the government extended the scheme to 2024, with a major thrust on 2 & 3 wheelers and E-buses. The outlay will now also support the creation of a battery-charging infrastructure across the country[5].

The scheme is gaining popularity because of the availability of better charging infrastructure and better vehicles from manufacturers. In fact, many start-ups and established players have announced large investments in this sector. Though EVs have picked up speed, the supply chain for batteries hasn’t been as responsive.

Local Battery Landscape

For mass adoption of EVs to become a reality, they must be able to rival internal combustion engines (ICEs) and be cost competitive. The main driver of incremental costs for EVs is the battery pack, which for a 500km range/60kWh capacity costs 2-3X the cost of ICE engine. If we consider the cost of electric motor and inverter, the gap is wider.

Large battery pack costs need to drop to about $100/kwh from current $150-$200/Kwh to turn things around. A key driver for battery cost decline (in $/kwh) is energy density improvement (in Wh/kg). This is powered by improvements in the chemistry and in the engineering of the cells.

Lithium-ion enjoys a head start, but not without challenges

Lithium-Ion batteries have had a head start over other types of batteries because of high-power density, long life, low self-discharge and low maintenance costs. However, these batteries also come with baggage: Cobalt, an integral element of most Lithium-Ion batteries is a difficult input owing to scarce availability, need for careful handling and cost. Plus, there are big environmental concerns around mining of these minerals including lithium and the toxicity of the compounds used in the battery’s electrodes. Moreover, L-ion technology is reaching its limit in terms of energy density (the amount of energy it can store by weight or volume). Last, the end-of-life management for lithium-ion batteries pose significant challenges as recycling is currently not commercially viable.

Smarter alternatives India must consider

Hence, sustainable alternatives for energy carriers need to be built with elements which are abundant and relatively inexpensive. A few options being considered are:

• Hydrogen: Recognised as one of the most promising energy carriers, this can be produced by steam reforming of methane or natural gas, or electrolysis of water which is abundant. However, hydrogen also has issues especially for the transportation segment because of storage and safety concerns.
• Aluminium: Aluminium-based energy generation technologies are being researched for more than 50 years now. Aluminium is looked upon as a promising candidate for large-scale integration in energy storage technology options globally, and unlike hydrogen, it is easy to transport and store. It has several key advantages which make it suitable as a prospective energy carrier such as:
  • Abundant availability
  • Recyclability – Aluminium is 100% recyclable thus reducing dependence on primary aluminium and most importantly
  • Electrochemical energy: Aluminium has high electrochemical equivalent value of 2.98 Ah/g (electrical output per unit mass) which is second highest after lithium (3.86 Ah/g) and higher than other active metals such as zinc (0.82 Ah/g) and magnesium (2.20 Ah/g). and
  • Stability, when aluminium is exposed to the atmosphere, it is immediately covered by an oxide film which protects metal from further corrosion, thus providing the safety of its storage and transportation. Also, under neutral-ambient conditions, there is negligible self-discharge of aluminium due to the presence of the oxide film.
  • Low environmental impact.

Focus on battery giga-factories must consider alternatives to Li-ion batteries

The Indian government has taken many steps to indigenise the entire value chain for E-Mobility. NITI Aayog has announced a target of 50 GWh and would support the establishment of three to ten giga-factories of 20 GWh to 5 GWh capacity each in the country. The manufacturers would be given a grace period of five years from notification of the scheme to ensure adequate localisation[6].

Many state governments have announced schemes to encourage E-Mobility, have offered matching subsidies and are willing to support strengthening of EV infrastructure. This has encouraged established players and start-ups to commit resources to develop world-class E- Mobility technologies and solutions. Many have announced plans to invest across the battery value chain.

Government agencies CECRI, CSIR, DRDO, ARCI and other R&D centres too have stepped into the fray to build indigenous supply chains. Most of their efforts today are focused on Lithium-ion battery and indigenisation of anode materials like graphite and copper foils or cathode materials like aluminium foils.  A few companies are working on the battery chemistry aspects to improve the battery properties. Battery management systems is another critical area, where Indian companies have made good progress, given the IT expertise of the country.

• A major challenge for India in developing cells is the lack of critical raw material and import dependence on Lithium, Nickel, and Cobalt. Today, China controls most of these resources. What then, must India focus on?
• Right Choice: Selecting the right battery chemistry is critical as batteries dictate the costs of electric vehicles. The strategy should be to use battery chemistry with optimised cost and performance at Indian temperatures. India should encourage local manufacturing of such battery cells.
• Exploring new chemistries: India has been late in securing mines which produce these materials and now should focus on recycling of used batteries. It should aim to become the capital of ‘urban mining’. This is crucial given the expected size of the Indian market and the fact that many batteries will be used in 2 & 3 wheelers becoming a headache for the environment once the battery life expires.
• Above all, India must focus on developing battery technologies using abundantly available local materials such as Aluminium, especially considering the focus on E- Mobility and renewables.

Aluminium based batteries the right choice for India

The above considerations make Aluminium-based batteries the best choice for India given that the country is among top 10 bauxite players globally with over 600 Mn tonnes in reserves. Indian companies can manufacture all the-aluminium constituents locally. Let us consider Aluminium air and ion batteries.

Al Air Batteries

The battery works by tapping electricity generated when aluminium plates react with oxygen in the air[7]. It has one of the highest energy densities for a battery. It is stable, does not pose fire hazard and is environment friendly. It also provides a much longer range, potentially over 1500 Km. While it cannot be charged these batteries can be recycled to produce aluminium in a close loop. To make this technology commercially viable, an infrastructure for swapping and collection must be incentivised by the government. In India, Israeli company Phinergy and IOCL have announced a JV to this effect, which holds plenty of promise.

Al Ion Batteries

A fast-emerging technology, Al ion batteries is built along the same lines of Li-ion batteries. An Australian company is talking about Al-ion batteries that can be charged 60X faster than lithium-ion batteries and provide much longer range. These are expected to be safer, greener and more durable as compared with Lithium-ion batteries.

From the Indian perspective, these advances are significant indicators how the philosophy of Atmanirbhar Bharat can be translated into action. Demand from electric transport and renewable energy storage means India could provide a market big enough for aluminium-air batteries to be established as an alternative to the Li-ion based technologies.

Use of Aluminium in EVs beyond Batteries

Aluminium foil is extensively used as a current collector (substrate) for cathode materials coating in Lithium-ion batteries. However, due to its unique properties, it is also used in cell tabs and containers. Many manufacturers extensively use battery boxes made from aluminium alloys, conforming to the lightweight design and strength of end-use applications. Many modern EVs use aluminium in rolled or extruded forms to design battery enclosures. The high-strength extrudable aluminium alloys provide excellent strength, rigidity and allow for complex designs to take shape.

There is also a direct relationship between vehicle curb weight and the energy requirement in Wh/Kg for electric vehicle driving range. Light-weighting is essential for E-mobility given the high cost of battery and issues surrounding range. Light weighting through aluminisation is an established criteria in the auto industry and its importance is only growing as we switch from ICEs to EVs.

The Way Forward

India should aggressively promote development and commercialisation of aluminium-based solutions for battery technologies and electric vehicles. In addition to already announced policies to promote indigenisation of battery and EV technology it will be prudent to work on policies that:

1. Promote “Make in India” and localise manufacturing of the entire value system of EVs, including electronic component manufacturing and EV charging infrastructure.
2. Incentives based on share of local value added and materials in total cost of manufacturing.
3. Clear policy position on end-of-life EV and battery directives to ensure close loop recycling technology, like the ones based on aluminium, becomes commercially viable.
4. Incentivise private sector to develop aluminium based battery solutions and recycling ecosystem through a collaborative innovation fund.
5. Indigenous development of Al based batteries (Al Air/Al ion) with academia/government body (ISRO/DRDO) and with Aluminium industry participation.
6. Funding and ecosystem development initiatives like – NITI Aayog supported and CSIR funded Project “ICeNGESS” (Innovation Centre for Next Generation Energy Storage Solutions) which at present only includes LiB can also be instituted or extended to include Al based batteries[8]. This will enable identifying and establishing a supply chain for Al based batteries.

Exciting times ahead

In the coming days, India can make rapid strides in energy storage and E-mobility; hence it is imperative to develop/redesign the current ecosystem to achieve these goals. India is ranked fourth globally in installed renewable power capacity, with solar and wind power leading the way[9]. It has set a goal to generate 450 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030 – five times the current capacity[10]. This means that India would generate 60% of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030[11].

With around 300 sunny days a year, India has the potential to lead the world in solar electricity, which will be less expensive than existing coal-fired power by 2030, even when paired with battery storage. In fact, in 2021 the growth rate is expected to be 47% YOY with an expected addition of 1875 MW.

This ambition would call for innovation, partnerships, and significant capital. The private sector has a major role to play in building collaborative partnerships to achieve sustainability goals and ensuring inclusive growth for all. The industry partners are willing to invest and will need support considering the large investment and long gestation periods. The government is taking active steps in the form of policy support, incentive schemes to promote the storage industry. Encouragement for research towards technology development of aluminium based batteries, academia – industry partnerships, creation of battery swapping infrastructure are some of the steps along with focused performance-based linked incentives will go a long way in achieving the desired goals and heralding the era of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’.

Authors Brief Bio: Nilesh Koul is Senior President Marketing, Business Development & Strategic Initiatives, Hindalco and Sagar Dhamorikar is Joint President Innovation and Business Development, Hindalco

References:

[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iea-emissions-idUSKBN2AU0G8

[2] India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions – Towards Climate Justice

http://moef.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/revised-PPT-Press-Conference-INDC-v5.pdf

[3] India aims to become 100% e-vehicle nation by 2030,

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/india-aims-to-become-100-e-vehicle-nation-by-2030-piyush-goyal/articleshow/51551706.cms?from=mdr

[4] National Automotive Board (NAB), www.heavyindustry.gov.in, FAME INDIA II Scheme: Ministry of Heavy Industries, (dhi.nic.in)), https://fame-india.gov.in/

[5] FAME INDIA II Scheme: Ministry of Heavy Industries, Ministry of Heavy Industries,

https://fame-india.gov.in/

[6]MAKING INDIA AATMANIRBHAR IN ADVANCE BATTERY STORAGE, NITI Aayog http://www.niti.gov.in/making-india-aatmanirbhar-advance-battery-storage

[7] India Gives Aluminium Battery a Chance to Take on Lithium in Electric Vehicles

https://gadgets.ndtv.com/transportation/news/electric-vehicle-car-ev-india-aluminium-lithium-replacement-indian-oil-phinergy-2477690

[8] PURE EV Partners With CSIR-CECRI To Indigenise Lithium-Ion Battery Tech For EVs,

[9] India’s renewable power capacity is the fourth largest in the world, Narendra Modi,

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/indias-renewable-power-capacity-is-the-fourth-largest-in-the-world-says-pm-modi/79430910

[10] India predicts 450GW of Renewable capacity by 2030,

[11] India can lead the world in solar-based growth

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/india-can-lead-the-world-in-solar-based-growth/

In the Maritime India Summit 2021 held in March 2021, the Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, while inaugurating the event, spoke of India’s intent to emerge as a leading Blue Economy of the world and invited the world to be a part of India’s growth story^[1]. Most significantly, the prime Minister asserted that India will shed the piecemeal approach adopted so far and will and focus holistically on the entire sector. Later, the Prime Minister released the ‘Maritime India Vision 2030,’ a 10 year roadmap for the development of the maritime sector and unveiled the plaque of ‘Sagar-Manthan: Mercantile Maritime Domain Awareness Centre (MM-DAC)’, an information sharing mechanism to enhance regional maritime security, improve SAR (Search and Rescue) capability and protect the maritime environment.

Earlier, in 2010, the previous government had promulgated a ‘Maritime Agenda 2010-2020,’ which was also a 10 year roadmap with clearly defined milestones.^[2] At first glance itself, that agenda had seemed too ambitious but it was hoped that the government was serious about walking the talk. Many aspects of this agenda got absorbed into Sagarmala,^[3] the port-led maritime infrastructure programme promulgated by the present government in 2015, which continues to be a work in progress with a 20 year timeline. Disappointingly however, at the end of 2020, India had fallen far short of the intended milestones across the entire maritime sector and had barely improved its global standing as a maritime power.

India’s Maritime Credentials

India has been blessed with a favourable maritime geography. Its peninsular geographic conformation notwithstanding, it is essentially a maritime nation with a 7,516 km long coastline with nine coastal states and four coastal Union Territories. More than 200 million Indians live in the country’s coastal districts with a large majority of them dependent on the sea for their sustenance and economic well-being. It has a 2 million sq. km plus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) which is rich in resources and a future source of sustenance. This expanse, however, remains largely unexplored. The 75,000 sq. km allocated to India in the Central Indian Ocean region for poly-metallic nodule exploration also remains untapped.^[4]

India is also heavily dependent on the sea for its energy requirements. Over 85% of India’s crude oil and over 50% of gas is seaborne and most of its indigenous efforts are focussed on offshore exploration. Refined petroleum goods, which constitute the largest percentage of India’s exports, also transit over the sea. Hence, India’s energy security and the security of India’s energy are dependent on the sea. More than 90% of India’s trade by volume and over 75% by value travels over the sea and is serviced by a network of 13 major ports and over 200 non-major ports. The development of coastal shipping and inland waterways which was almost non-existent until a few years ago is continuing to progress but needs to gather more momentum.

The two strategically important island territories of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the east and the Lakshadweep group on the west besides being a security asset also offer tremendous potential for progressing India’s economic maritime initiatives including investment in marine tourism. However, the delicate and fragile ecological balance will need to be carefully maintained and regulated to reap long-term benefits.

With such impeccable maritime credentials and its dependence on the maritime domain, not only for its economic well-being, but also for its future development and national security, meeting the milestones outlined in the Maritime Vision 2030 document is an imperative that can no longer be put on the back burner.

The Maritime Development Challenge

India is presently languishing well below global standards in almost all parameters of maritime power. The Indian Navy may rank amongst the best in the world and is central to India’s maritime aspirations but it is only one of the many constituents that define maritime power.

India’s development story faces numerous socio-economic challenges. India’s manufacturing capability has been lagging in recent years and we are yet to become a global manufacturing hub in any significant sector. In the maritime sector, India’s share of global shipbuilding is less than 1% and is far short of the 5% target outlined in the Maritime Agenda 2010-2020. Despite the high volume of national trade passing through its ports, not even one Indian port figures in the world’s top 25 ports (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust – JNPT- off Mumbai is ranked 28^th) or even in the first 10 in Asia. Its ship repair industry is uneconomical and lags far behind in global best practices with the result that even Indian flagged vessels prefer to dock in foreign ship repair yards.

In 2019, as per the statistics issued by the Shipping Ministry, India’s Merchant Fleet stood at 1,429 vessels with a total tonnage of 12.746 million tons. These impressive numbers however paint a misleading picture as only 9.7% of India’s foreign trade and 59% of its coastal trade is carried on Indian ships, which not only results in a massive outflow of foreign exchange (estimated at USD 50 Bn) but is also a strategic vulnerability the country can ill afford. Further, a majority of these ships are more than 20 years old and hence uneconomical to operate in the contemporary technology-intensive environment. Its fishing fleet is antiquated and is still dominated by traditional practices with little state support for improving its efficiency and catch. The country’s marine resources also remain largely untapped for want of adequate effort.

India aspires to become a USD 5 trillion economy by 2024, an increase of more than 40% over the current USD 3 trillion within the next three years.^[5] This is indeed an ambitious goal and will require an extraordinary national effort at every level, both within the government and out of it. The country’s growth as an economic powerhouse is inextricably linked to its rise as a maritime power and therefore depends on its ability to harness its tremendous maritime potential with timely and efficient implementation of the ambitious targets laid down in the Maritime Vision 2030 and the Sagarmala programme. The SAGAR Doctrine (an acronym for Security And Growth for All in the Region) enunciated by the Prime Minister during his visit to Mauritius in June 2015 as an inclusive capacity building architecture with the countries in the Indian Ocean Region for the safety and security of the region’s maritime interests, also forms an important constituent as it highlights the close linkage between security and economic growth. This doctrine is aimed at achieving the latter while ensuring the former.

Meeting these lofty objectives will require intent, resources and most importantly, technology. While the intent has been spelt out in the documents and it is understood that a sum of about Rs 3 lakh crore (USD 41.44 Bn) has been set aside as a dedicated Maritime Development Fund to meet the targets of the Maritime Vision 2030, it is the effective and efficient utilisation of technology that will be the key to realising these goals.

This paper will attempt to provide an overview of how present and emerging technologies can be applied as effective force multipliers in achieving the milestones laid out in Maritime Vision 2030, which is now the official policy document for shaping India’s maritime future in this decade.

Maritime Vision 2030

The India Brand Equity Foundation^[6] in its report titled ‘India’s Maritime Sector – Rising Above the Waves’ has identified 10 key themes in the Vision document. These include the development of best-in-class port infrastructure, enhancement of logistic efficiency through technology and innovation, strengthening the policy and institutional framework, enhancement of the global share in shipbuilding, ship repair and recycling, improvement in  the inland waterways infrastructure, promotion of marine tourism, to become a world leader in ensuring a safe and sustainable maritime sector and enhancement of India’s global standing in maritime cooperation, world class education, research  and training.

Underlining these themes are two fundamental requirements viz, infrastructure augmentation and technology infusion. The infrastructure augmentation highlighted in the document includes the following:

• The setting up of three mega ports with a capacity of over 300 million tonnes of cargo, mainly in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Odisha and developing a West Bengal cluster with a major investment of Rs 80,000 crore (USD 11.05 Bn).
• A 3-fold increase in cargo transhipment within the country from the existing 25% to about 75% through development of transhipment hubs Kanyakumari and Campbell Bays and through Vizhinjam port.
• Rationalising vessel-related charges to bring on par with global ports through Enterprise Business System (EBS) and a National Maritime Logistics Portal and expediting the entire process through digitisation and other innovative technology driven value additions.
• Increasing the draught to 14-18 metres with at least three ports at over 18 metres to enable the berthing of larger vessels.
• Introducing Green initiatives including enhancing renewable energy to over 60% from the present level of about 10%.
• Promoting ‘waste to wealth’ through sustainable practices in ship recycling and and dredging.

Each of these activities is underscored by technology which will drive these initiatives. The world is now poised on the cusp of the Industrial Revolution 4.0 which is ushering in an era of new technologies that is transforming the industrial landscape in unimaginable ways. The pace of change due to the exponential rise in computing power is breathtaking and is driving these technologies, termed ‘disruptive’ to highlight their ability to alter the status quo and shake industry out of its comfort zone of business as usual. These are also going to impact the maritime domain across all sectors towards increasing efficiencies, supporting the country’s Blue Economy and climate change initiatives and reducing the investment in human and resource capital. The maritime economy is going to be one of the main drivers of the global economy in the 21^st century and efficient use of this technology in the maritime domain is going to benefit humanity in many ways.

The rapid advancement in global engineering technologies over the last half century found numerous applications in the maritime sector, which led to the modernisation of ports, improved efficiency in ship turnaround times, containerisation and enhanced port security. In the ship building sector too, this included automation, 3D modelling of ship design, modular construction, usage of composites and lighter materials, and enhanced efficiency in the manufacturing process in shipyards. Adoption of these technologies, while cost effective, were extremely capital intensive. India was unable to capitalise on this and Indian industry was unable to make the necessary investments in overhauling the existing infrastructure due to economic constraints, the high cost of capital, an unresponsive bureaucratic machinery and above all, the lack of a competitive environment.

For India, with its underlying strength in IT, the Industrial Revolution 4.0 presents an opportunity to leapfrog the technology curve by leveraging its IT skills towards developing the competitive edge. Nowhere is this more relevant than in the maritime sector where India stands on a transformational cusp of realising its ambitions as a maritime power of reckoning.

Port Infrastructure

Elevating India’s present ports to global best-in-class standards in the space of less than a decade is a challenging task. Not only does this involve modernising the existing ports but also optimising the limited resources towards building three new ports outlined in the Vision Document for enhancing the nation’s cargo capacity. Coastal shipping and inland waterways are also being developed as alternate means for the transportation of goods within the country and to serve as a feeder to the bigger ports. Hence, the non-major ports, some of which lack even rudimentary infrastructure will also have to be upgraded, both with a technologically efficient infrastructure and introduction of contemporary technologies.

A ‘Major Ports Authority Bill’ is under discussion in Parliament. This will supersede the existing Act that has been in force since 1963 which has become archaic in the technologically advanced and competitive working environment. This Bill has proposed greater functional autonomy in the running of ports, streamlining of the decision-making process and revising the existing institutional framework to align with the contemporary environment.

Indian ports need to focus their attention on streamlining their operations, reducing the turnaround time of ships, improving the security architecture and ensuring an increase in their throughput. The use of artificial intelligence to prioritise cargo movement, ensure cargo bay optimisation and the speedy movement of goods can affect savings in hundreds of crores of rupees, improve the cargo handling figures with more ships being able to berth, and streamline the flow of goods between ports and from ship to shore. India has identified transhipment as one of the priority areas in the Maritime Vision 2030.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used to streamline and prioritise the transhipment of containers, thus reducing the turnaround time of ships and the congestion of ships waiting their turn. Automation of the loading process and cargo distribution with the use of AI can reduce the empty spaces, rearrange cargo when loading and unloading to ensure the equitable distribution of weight, hitherto done by lengthy calculations that always had scope for error, and thus also reducing risk for the vessel at sea

The use of Data Analytics, which offers a solution based on the ability to analyse vast quantity of data facilitated by the computing capacity and speed, can enhance efficiencies in port operations by analysing numerous parameters and offering solutions related to cargo movement, container data, weight distribution etc.

Shipbuilding

The global shipbuilding industry is extremely competitive and India has found itself on the back foot with less than 1% share of global shipbuilding. This is mainly attributable to archaic shipbuilding practices in antiquated shipyards and a non-competitive environment. Hence, Indian shipyards have been found sadly wanting in competing with the modern shipyards in China, Japan and South Korea where efficient practices backed by government support in the form of subsidies has helped them corner more than 95% of the global shipbuilding demand.^[7] In the last decade, despite the stated aim of cornering 5% of the global shipbuilding market, the shipbuilding industry is yet to be provided an enabling environment. Bureaucratic apathy and lack of encouragement and incentives to compete globally, has in fact led to three large private shipyards shutting down due to financial insolvency.

Enhancement in the global share of shipbuilding has been reiterated in the Vision 2030 document but our inability to reach even 10% of the shipbuilding target laid out in the Maritime Agenda 2010-2020 should serve as a reminder of the challenge ahead, which mere policy pronouncements with ambitious figures will not achieve. Shipbuilding is a long lead-time activity and requires sustained and timely support.

The Industrial Revolution 4.0 has provided an opportunity to revitalise the shipbuilding sector in the country. India‘s existing shipyards are in dire need of modernisation and should be provided the support to make the transformation into a modern automated facility with efficient practices backed by technology. The effective application of emerging technologies could change the complexion of India’s shipbuilding industry by the end of this decade. Technologies like 3D Printing are now being used worldwide to not only optimise shipbuilding costs and enhance efficiency but also in simplifying complexities in ship design and recreating components and parts thus shortening the supply chain leading to cost and time savings in new ship manufacture and repair.

The use of robotics has benefited from digitalisation. Shipyards are increasingly using robots in their production system to increase the speed and scale of production and optimise costly human resource. Robots are now performing tasks like pipe inspections and hull cleaning which ensures better and uniform quality of work to more exacting and specific standards. The use of Virtual and Augmented Reality (AR) in shipbuilding to minimise physical wastage, validate and improve complex shipbuilding processes and streamlining the hull dynamics and stability calculations during the design process. The creation of a ‘digital twin using AR is also finding many applications in the shipbuilding eco-system.

The use of alternate fuels, the adoption of Fuel Optimisation Systems etc are being used by shipbuilders to offer cleaner and more efficient ships. The use of LNG as an alternative fuel to diesel reportedly reduces carbon emissions by up to 25%.

The shipbuilding industry is  focussing its attention on Smart Ships Solutions with cyber being used to enable data from sensors in various areas of the ship be monitored towards encouraging the use of more efficient practices on board. Smart ships are a reality and could usher in a paradigm shift in ship operations. Shipbuilding and merchant shipping are strategic assets. India must therefore create an eco-system, which encourages Indian shipyards to build modern, efficient and cost effective vessels for Indian shipping companies. This would be a win-win for the sector and would enable both to become globally competitive while simultaneously retaining the strategic advantage in the face of the inevitable maritime security challenges to our trade and sovereignty.

Shipping

The shipping industry is adapting rapidly to modern technologies with a focus on autonomy,  the IoT and Data Analytics. These ‘smart’ ship technologies are transforming the existing paradigm with the entire maritime industry and eco-system moving in this direction. The use of autonomous systems combined with the automation on board will provide the human element a wider range of options and system generated optimal solutions. IoT and increasing use of the cloud is enabling greater flow of information from ashore and better decision making afloat. Various spaces on board can be accessed with the help of an app or with remote monitoring. In the event of an emergency, this access would enable timely corrective action to be initiated. Similarly, the control of hatch doors, bays, bulkhead systems and hydraulics can be done remotely.

Data Analytics is helping to access the enormous quantities of data towards enhancing efficiency and outputs while enabling savings and optimising time management, all of which are critical to the shipping industry. The digital analysis of oceanographic data and weather patterns, to increase both safety and economy in routing ships and minimising delays due to inclement weather or adverse ocean conditions through digital charts and electronic chart display systems, is now a standard feature on board ships.

The focus on autonomous systems is finding applications in the maritime domain. Autonomous merchant vessels are now in an active stage of development. Autonomous steering and navigation systems are being integrated with port traffic management schemes through AI and machine learning to facilitate smoother entry and exit of ships from congested ports and restricted waters. Smart ship technologies are being effectively applied for collision avoidance and safe navigation.

Similarly, Integrated Platform Management Systems and smart propulsion are enabling remote management and health monitoring of propulsion, machinery spaces and auxiliary systems on board thus reducing time lost due to equipment failure and safe and optimal exploitation of on-board machinery. Shipping is also set to gain from the increasing use of blockchain technology to enable better supply chain management with the ease of data transfer for tracking the movement of cargo.

A revolutionary technology that can indirectly impact global shipping is the idea of a Hyper-loop Transportation System. Conceptualised by Elon Musk for rapid transportation of people and light goods, the Prime Minister and the Maharashtra government have expressed keenness in setting up a hyper-loop system between Pune and Mumbai including the airport and the JNPT Port and have signed up with the Virgin Group to develop the project. It is believed that this proposed hyper-loop will reduce accidents, effect time and cost savings worth USD 55 billion over a period of 30 years and will help reduce greenhouse gas emission by approximately 86,000 tons/year. It will also build a more efficient supply chain.^[8]

These innovative technologies are just the tip of the iceberg. Shipping is changing at an extraordinary pace with these technology solutions signalling a global renaissance in an industry that has been critical to the development of mankind.  India, with its ancient maritime heritage can and must keep pace with this transformation. Shipping is also an important source of employment. India’s global share of seafarers is about 12% at present. Reaching the intended level of 20% by 2030 will require great deal more to be done to improve the quality of training.  The use of modern technological tools like Big Data, IoT, VR/AR  etc can effectively ensure that the training of Indian seafarers is aligned with global standards and is able to ensure that our seafarers can compete with the best in an increasingly sophisticated technological environment on board ships.

Ship Repair and Ship Recycling

Amongst the other themes highlighted in the Maritime Vision, ship repair is closely linked to shipbuilding. Technology can provide cost effective solutions to make India a ship repair hub, which could begin with Indian ship owners making Indian yards their preferred choice. Similarly, India’s ship recycling industry, which at one time was very active, found itself at the wrong end of environmental concerns because of crude and archaic practices. In December 2019, India acceded to the IMO drafted Hong Kong Convention, which has laid down the global standards for safe and environmentally sound ship recycling^[9]. India and Turkey are the only two among the five top ship-recycling nations in the world to accede to this Convention which should help India regain pole position without the accompanying environmental hazards.

Perhaps more than anything else in the maritime domain, technology will play a leading role in furthering the Blue Economy and sustainable development of the oceans. India has been at the forefront in promoting the UN Sustainable Development Goals as a responsible regional power and many of its capacity building initiatives in the region are aimed at checking climate change and illegal exploitation of the oceans. India must use the benefits of modern technology to harness the power of the oceans for alternate sources of energy and livelihood. There is a plan to establish a regulatory framework aligned to both, our sovereign concerns as well as the international regulatory framework and the creation of a maritime authority to bring about the cohesion, synergy and efficiency in the approach to the maritime domain as highlighted by the Prime Minister earlier this year. This has been lacking so far because of the multitude of ministries, departments and organisations linked to the maritime domain with differing priorities of their own. Technology will be the most effective tool in ensuring the robustness of this maritime governance and regulatory architecture.

India has also taken the lead in developing partnerships with other countries, which have pioneered ‘green’ technologies. One such is Denmark with whom India is engaging in a number of areas related to the maritime domain including the setting up of a Maritime Knowledge Cluster.

Conclusion

The advent of modern technology will bring about major improvements in the maritime eco-system but the application of these transformative technologies will require both intent and effort, to ensure result-oriented progress in research, development and innovation across the spectrum of maritime activity within the country.  Successful adoption of these technologies will depend upon the policy framework, the regulatory structure, the concern for the environment and the streamlining of processes to drive down costs and improve efficiency. The Global Maritime Technology Trends 2030^[10] has highlighted two scenarios which will shape the future of shipping; the first will originate from within the industry to use technology for commercial advantages and the second will be from other related sectors including design and safety.

Maritime power is an important constituent of a country’s comprehensive national power. As the world turns increasingly to the sea for its future sustenance and development, the importance of the maritime sector is set to grow. India, despite its impressive maritime credentials has been unable to leverage this effectively into becoming a leading global maritime power. As India seeks to become a USD 5 trillion economy and the Prime Minister on more than one occasion, has articulated his vision of India as a maritime power, it has to take a leadership role in the region. The backbone of the technology revolution is Information Technology, which India with its strength in IT, must leverage to drive India’s maritime economy at the desired pace to achieve the objectives laid down in the Maritime Vision 2030.

Author Brief Bio: Commodore Anil Jai Singh is the Vice President of the Indian Maritime Foundation. 

Reference

^[1] www.pmindia.gov.in dated 02 March 2021.

^[2] www.pib.gov.in/newsite/Print Release dated 13 January 2011.

^[3] www.Sagarmala.gov.in>projects

^[4] PIB, Ministry of Earth Sciences GoI, 21 August 2017

^[5] Economic Times dated 04 February 2020 “Govt sticks to USD 5 Trillion economy target”

^[6] www.ibef.org IBEF Report “India’s Maritime Sector, Rising Above the Waves”

^[7] www.brsbrokers.com/assets/BRS Review_2021_Shipbuilding.pdf dated 18 December 2020

^[8] www.indianexpress.com/article dated 27 December 2020.

^[9] www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings dated 28 November 2019

^[10] Global Marine Technology Trends 2030 ©2015 Lloyds Register,Qinetiq and University of Southampton.

Abstract:

The 21^st century global order has witnessed a significant shift towards the maritime domain, geopolitically and geo-strategically. The Indo-Pacific strategic space has gained importance and increasing number of nations are beginning to maintain their strategic presence in the region. The strategic deployment of assets has political, economic and military connotations. The Indo-Pacific strategic construct and the corresponding formation of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), puts India in a significant position within the global power play. However, the “Indo” part of the Indo-Pacific must be understood in its entire strategic context. The Indian establishment on its part has shown strategic intent in line with the global expectations. The “Security and Growth for All in the Region” (SAGAR) declaration by Prime Minister Modi, is the first major geopolitical declaration by India, to be diplomatically seen as the leader in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). The Government of India, on its part, has further announced multiple mega projects like the “Sagarmala”, “Bharatmala”, “Inland Water Transport (IWT)” and many more to realise the SAGAR vision on ground. Maritime governance is a critical aspect that merits attention to manage the surge in maritime activities on all fronts. The Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) is a term that has the potential to enable enhanced governance, however the conventional MDA has remained security driven and failed to penetrate into the other stakeholders. The second major drawback of the MDA has been that it has remained on surface. Given the vast undersea resources along with disruptive means available today to access the underwater domain, this is a major limitation. A comprehensive safe, secure, sustainable growth model that can address all the challenges and opportunities is required.

The Maritime Research Centre (MRC), Pune has proposed a comprehensive Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) framework. This encourages pooling of resources and synergising of efforts across the stakeholders, namely maritime security, blue economy, marine environment & disaster management and science & technology. The UDA framework adequately addresses the policy, technology & innovation and human resource development requirements to be able to project India as a major maritime nation globally. India, with its geo-strategic location and vast maritime frontiers, cannot afford to remain a continental nation anymore. Massive acoustic capacity and capability building on multiple fronts is inescapable. In this paper, we present the infinite possibilities in the new global order. The Indo part of the Indo-Pacific and how India needs to gear-up in this new strategic context has been elaborated in depth. Young India is a massive resource. This could however become a huge challenge, if we as a community, fail to channelize their energy and aspirations in a constructive manner. “Maritime India with more Depth Underwater” is probably the way forward.

Introduction

The Indo-Pacific strategic construct has increasingly found more and more resonance among the global powers. Initiated by the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, while delivering his address to the Indian Parliament in 2007, he referred to the “confluence” of the Indian and Pacific Oceans as “the dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of prosperity” in the “broader Asia” [1]. It got symbolically linked to the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”, referred to as the QUAD, comprising of Australia, Japan, India and the US. The QUAD regained its relevance geopolitically during the pandemic with the growing assertion by China in global matters. The obvious belligerence from the Chinese, has probably brought the erstwhile dominant global powers to align themselves either way. The Germans and the French have also announced their participation in the Indo-Pacific strategic interaction [2].

The role of India in the Indo-Pacific strategic construct is significant in many ways. It brings India in the centre stage of global power play and India can no longer choose to remain a silent spectator. The Indo-Pacific is an outright maritime strategic construct and thus, India has to evolve itself as a major maritime power. The Indo-Pacific is defined as the tropical littoral waters of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean as shown in figure-1 [3]. The term tropical littoral waters bring with it, multiple unique challenges and opportunities. The “Indo” part of the Indo-Pacific demands that India invests significantly in its maritime capacity and capability building to remain a major player in the IOR and beyond [4].

Fig. 1 The Indo-Pacific Region: tropical Littoral Waters [3]

The Government of India on its part has displayed significant strategic intent to alter the continental policy outlook, it has been criticised of, since Independence. The SAGAR vision announced by the Prime Minster has been regarded as the most significant strategic declaration with a regional outlook, far beyond its national boundaries. This vision, as stated by the Prime Minister, in his address to the Shangri La Dialogue at Singapore in 2018 has the following aspects behind the broad vision [5, 6]:

(a)     It acknowledges the security concerns that we face in the region due to the political instability and the socio-economic status of the IOR rim nations.

(b)     It recognises the tremendous economic potential that exists for the nations in the region to harness.

(c)      It emphasises the need for regional consolidation and bringing together nations in the region and prevent extra-regional powers from meddling in our internal matters.

(d)     It attempts to revive the rich maritime heritage we shared and rekindle the sense of pride in our rich culture and traditions.

The Government of India has matched up the big SAGAR declaration, with mega projects like the “Sagarmala”, “Bharatmala”, “Inland Water Transport (IWT)” and more, to prioritise the maritime capacity and capability building. Significant policy incentives have also been offered and additionally, multiple legislations have been brought-in, to demonstrate aggressive push by the government on multiple fronts [7, 8].

The Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) is a term used in the global parlance for effective maritime governance. MDA is rooted in the ability to effectively monitor what is going on, at any moment in the entire maritime space. The MDA, as defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), is the effective understanding of anything associated with the maritime domain that could impact the security, safety, economy or the environment [9, 10]. The MDA, globally, remained a security construct and continued to be driven by the maritime forces with far less transparency and minimal involvement of the other stakeholders. Even from a security construct, the underwater component of MDA that could be referred to as Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) has remained neglected and fragmented even on a global scale [11].

Challenges and Opportunities

There are political, economic and military connotations of the Indo-Pacific construct, given the geopolitical and geo-strategic realities of the times we are in. To achieve a comprehensive safe, secure and sustainable growth model, for good maritime governance, we need to be aware of these ground realities. The tropical littoral waters are blessed with abundant undersea resources, both living and non-living, available for exploitation. The economic abundance coupled with political instability and corresponding lack of maritime governance makes it a perfect mix for extra-regional powers to get involved and exploit the region for their narrow-vested interest. The global energy reserves in the Middle-East and the growing economies in South East Asia, with vast energy requirements, ensures a steady flow of shipping lines from west to east and back with the finished goods. Thus, the Indo-Pacific has become a critical sea route for the global powers to maintain their military presence to ensure their strategic autonomy [12, 13].

The political instability has given space to non-state actors, some of whom are being used both by the regional powers and extra-regional powers as regular instruments of diplomatic influence in the region. The non-state actors with an asymmetric and disruptive technological edge are a formidable force to deal with using conventional military means. Security, thus becomes a major cause of concern from a governance perspective. The extra-regional powers at times, also find it easy to use the security bogey to push their military hardware at high cost to these nations in the region. Many nations in the region with meagre economic resources and massive socio-economic burden, are the biggest spenders on military hardware. The socio-economic quagmire, coupled with political instability, makes it easy for the extra-regional powers to keep the polity within and the governments in the region fragmented, and allows them to exploit the situation to their benefit. The misplaced priorities politically, makes it difficult to evolve effective governance mechanisms and reverse the vicious cycle. Maritime terrorism, piracy, IUU (Illegal, Unreported & Unregulated) fishing, unsustainable maritime activities and more, are thus on the rise and threatening the sustainable development goals across multiple dimensions. Political instability and overall lack of synergy at all levels negatively impacts maritime governance. [14, 15].

The economic aspect further has multiple dimensions and dynamics. The abundant undersea resources coupled with lack of knowhow and effective governance mechanism is a deadly recipe for higher political interference by the extra-regional powers. Nations with vast coastlines are not the major players in shipping, shipbuilding and ship-repairs. They have occupied the lower end of the spectrum by offering to be ship-breaking yards. The undersea resources are not being exploited in a sustainable manner in the absence of a regulatory framework. The extra-regional powers are having a free run-in term of exploiting the undersea domain for resources and multiple other blue economic returns. Lack of big investments and minimal application of high-end science & technology tools has ensured unviable and unsustainable ways of undersea exploration and exploitation. The fragmented geopolitics does not allow the nations in the region to come together in any way to build mega initiatives. The demographic bulge in the region is not getting channelised into constructive nation building activities. This leads to youth getting vested into non-productive and at times even into anti-national activities. [16, 17]

The security bogey has become a major curse for the region. The spending on the security forces has become a significant drain into the national economy. The lack of indigenous Research & Development (R&D) in the tropical littoral waters with unique characteristics has meant over-dependence on the imported military hardware at very high cost and minimal effectiveness on ground. The brute force method of maintaining high numbers in terms of human resources and other assets among the security forces with minimal induction of the modern systems is no match to the disruptive and emerging technology means being deployed by the non-state actors. We have already had multiple incidents in the past where major attacks have been launched from the sea route and more recently the drone attack in an Air Force base is the manifestation of the larger asymmetry that exists and complete shift from the conventional rules of engagement. Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) is the order of the day and is only likely to get stealthier with higher element of surprise [4, 12].

The fragmented approach among the stakeholders and turf wars among the policy makers is a sure recipe for disaster. The consolidation on all fronts is a problem and thus, the capacity and capability building remain a low priority. In the absence of consolidation, we will always be short of resources for S&T (write full form of S&T) and local site-specific R&D. Every stakeholder is spending significant amount of resources and effort in building their own infrastructure and that is never enough to match up to the real requirements on the ground [18].

Underwater Domain Awareness Framework

The concept of Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) in a more specific sense will translate to our eagerness to know what is happening in the undersea realm of our maritime areas. This keenness for undersea awareness from the security perspective means defending our Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC), coastal waters and varied maritime assets against the proliferation of submarines and mine capabilities intended to limit the access to the seas and littoral waters. However, just the military requirement may not be the only motivation to generate undersea domain awareness. The earth’s undersea geophysical activities have a lot of relevance to the wellbeing of humankind and monitoring of such activities could provide vital clues to minimise the impact of devastating natural calamities. The commercial activities in the undersea realm need precise inputs on the availability of resources to be able to effectively and efficiently explore and exploit them for economic gains. The regulators on the other hand need to know the pattern of exploitation to manage a sustainable plan. With so much of activities, commercial and military, there is significant impact on the environment. Any conservation initiative needs to precisely estimate the habitat degradation and species vulnerability caused by these activities and assess the ecosystem status. The scientific and the research community needs to engage and continuously update our knowledge and access of the multiple aspects of the undersea domain. Fig. 2, presents a comprehensive perspective of the UDA framework. The underlying requirement for all the stakeholders is to know the developments in the undersea domain, make sense out of these developments and then respond effectively and efficiently to them before they take shape of an event.

Fig. 2 Comprehensive Perspective of Undersea Domain Awareness

The UDA framework on a comprehensive scale needs to be understood in its horizontal and vertical construct. The horizontal construct would be the resource availability in terms of technology, infrastructure, capability and capacity specific to the stakeholders or otherwise. The stakeholders represented by the four faces of the cube will have their specific requirements, however the core will remain the acoustic capacity and capability. The vertical construct is the hierarchy of establishing a comprehensive UDA. The first level or the ground level would be the sensing of the undersea domain for threats, resources and activities. The second level would be making sense of the data generated to plan security strategies, conservation plans and resource utilisation plans. The next level would be to formulate and monitor regulatory framework at the local, national and global level.

Figure 2 gives a comprehensive way forward for the stakeholders to engage and interact. The individual cubes represent specific aspects that need to be addressed. The User-Academia-Industry partnership can be seamlessly formulated based on the user requirement, academic inputs and the industry interface represented by the specific cube. It will enable more focused approach and well-defined interactive framework. Given the appropriate impetus, the UDA framework can address multiple challenges being faced by the nation today. Meaningful engagement of young India for nation building is probably the most critical aspect that deserves attention. Multi-disciplinary and multi-functional entities can interact and contribute to seamlessly synergise their efforts towards a larger national goal.

Acoustic Capacity & Capability Building

The acoustic means are the only way to generate domain awareness in the undersea region. The acoustic capacity and capability building pertains to managing the challenges and opportunities of the tropical littoral waters. The cold waters in the temperate and polar regions ensured that the sound axis (axis of minimal sound speed) was at shallow depths (as low as 50 m near the pole). This meant that the acoustic propagation remained concentrated around this sound axis, thereby ensuring minimal interaction with the surface and the bottom of the sea. On the contrary, the depth of sound axis in the tropical littoral waters is in the range of 1500 m (compared to the 100 m in the temperate region), thus there is significant interaction of the acoustic propagation with the two boundaries. This is one reason why littoral is a term used along with tropical in warm waters. The high interaction with the surface and the bottom means a severe degradation in the signal quality and high uncertainty in sonar performance. The high biodiversity in the tropical waters also ensures higher attenuation on the acoustic signal during propagation. The diurnal and seasonal variation in the underwater parameters further adds to the fluctuations in the acoustic propagation characteristics [19, 4].

The only way to minimise uncertainties in sonar performance is to build acoustic models that can predict underwater channel behaviour based on environmental parameters. These models will have to be validated across varying sea conditions and also across varying applications. The typical system for any domain awareness consisting of to see, to understand and to share, holds good here as well; however, the connotations may vary [20, 21].

To see includes the sensors that will gather information across the entire EEZ and beyond. The underwater sensors and their capabilities to see far, will be a major concern. The vast area cannot be mapped by conventional sensors alone. In any case, initiating a massive security exercise to deploy sensors is impractical, resource wise, and also may not go down well with the regional sensitivities, diplomatically. We will have to deploy strategies that are able to collect data from all possible seagoing vessels or enterprises and integrate it to the data centre. Environmental and academic research is a very potent means to camouflage security missions. We require platforms that will deploy the sensors at appropriate locations to adequately sense the region and collect the data for further analysis. These platforms could be surface or sub-surface that can reach the location along with the sensor and minimal interference from their own operations. Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) could be more cost-effective for a large-scale UDA initiative. Even static sensor suite could be deployed for data collection for long durations. A mix of Commercially-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) equipment for data collection and also specific prototype design of sensor and data acquisition systems may have to be developed to be installed across static and dynamic platforms to map the entire area.

To understand or analysis is a critical component that may be able to overcome some of the deficiencies of data collection. The analysis could be centralised or distributed based on the resource availability and strategy deployed for data acquisition. The first concern would be to minimise underwater channel distortions from the received data and also ensuring data integrity by verifying the corruption and errors. Deep learning methods are available today that can manage multiple data sets and provide the big picture. Also, High Performance Computing (HPC) infrastructure will be required to manage the Big Data in real time. The advanced underwater acoustics and signal processing may be deployed at the centralised facility or the distributed nodes.

The stakeholders may be integrated to this entire programme in a very covert manner to tap their data collection into the big infrastructure. The smart programme being implemented is a very unique model for this purpose. All kinds of data collection will seamlessly get channelised into the central systems with safeguards for data privacy for the individual users and metadata will be available for security analysis and policy formulation. Digital India already addresses many of the issues related to digital data and its handling. Digital Ocean should be our national priority.

To share or the networking of the systems for seamless data and information flow from source and destination to the central system is a critical component. The real time processing and networking is the key for any meaningful impact. The networking in the RF domain has progressed sufficiently to meet the requirement. The sensor networks have to be configured to bring the underwater signals above water to take advantage of the advances in RF. The old fashioned SOSUS systems (Sound Surveillance System) and the likes are thing of the past and need to evolve into their modern forms like DRAPES. We have to work on a very innovative model that is a mix of DRAPE (Deep Reconnaissance And Prevention of Emergencies) Systems and others, keeping in mind the tropical littoral issues and also the high traffic density in the IOR [22].

Way Ahead

The broad UDA framework needs to be dissected into individual S&T areas that have relevance across multiple sectors and applications. In this section we try to present few such areas that are representative to the vast UDA framework across the marine and the freshwater systems.

Underwater Radiated Noise (URN) Management is one of the most critical areas across military and non-military applications. The increasing shipping traffic across varied sectors starting from cargo in the high seas to coastal and inland waterways has huge impact on the underwater acoustic characteristics. The radiated noise from the marine vessels generates low frequency sound that overwhelms the low frequency spectrum of the ambient noise in the water bodies. The low frequency noise suffers minimum attenuation in the underwater domain so has significant impact over thousands of kilometres. Any underwater deployment of sonars for surveillance or marine mammal monitoring gets severely degraded due to poor Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR). Acoustic stealth for military deployment of platforms and acoustic habitat degradation for marine mammal conservation requires effective URN management. The shipbuilding and ship repair also needs to take note of the URN management aspects and deliver ships with requisite URN levels. Opportunities in this domain exist from URN measure & analysis to prediction and deception/alteration. Given the size of the shipping fleet in the merchant marine and the naval warships, this is a huge area available for technology as well as policy intervention. Acoustic capacity & capability building has innumerable dimensions as seen in Figure-3, which presents multiple aspects of the URN management and also brings all the stakeholders together in a seamless manner [23].

Fig. 3 Underwater Radiated Noise (URN) Framework

Sediment Management is another major opportunity for significant military and non-military applications. The broad areas of concern are freshwater resource management, flood control, navigation for inland water transport, port management, deployment of military vehicles in water bodies and more. There is significant military requirement in terms of logistics and movement of military assets across water bodies. Maintaining safe navigation and all-weather access across these water bodies could be a major challenge. There has been significant focus on port-led growth under the Sagarmala initiative and also the multimodal connectivity across waterways. These require massive acoustic capacity and capability building to ensure uninterrupted operations in our waterbodies.

Sediment management originates from prediction and prevention of the siltation process, de-siltation and also disposal of the silt. The tropical littoral waters have very high flow which causes high siltation. De-siltation needs to be done in a scientific manner to ensure viability of the projects. The acoustic survey and sediment classification is the key to the entire process. The volume of silt is a huge challenge from the perspective of removal and disposal. The dredging has multiple options with varying cost based on the nature of the silt. The disposal of the silt has become an impediment given the logistics cost and also non-availability of dumping ground. Precise sediment classification can ensure economic viability of the entire de-siltation process. There is significant wealth in the silt and with proper sediment management, this could turn out into a waste to wealth story. Figure-4, presents the multiple aspects of the sediment management framework. The stakeholders can seamlessly synergise and pool their resources to manage this effectively. The policy and technology interventions can be managed efficiently with enhanced acoustic capacity and capability building for sediment management [24].

Fig. 4 Sediment Management Framework

Aquaculture and Digital Oceans. The aquaculture industry in India has significant potential as a blue economy opportunity. The tropical littoral waters are known breeding grounds for shrimp farming and given the high value of shrimps in the global market, it a huge opportunity. However, shrimp farming is a high-risk venture due to disease outbreaks, environmental fluctuations, lack of scientific awareness and more. The small farmers are unable to sustain this venture, in the absence of financial support from the insurance companies and also banks. The unorganised sectors have a challenge to grow due to inadequate policy support from the governments as well. India, with a coastline of over 7,500 km, has a massive opportunity to build this industry and help the community to engage in productive ventures. Digital oceans is the only way forward to develop deeper understanding of the underwater conditions and fluctuations. Once we understand the patterns, the uncertainties of the environment and the production outputs could be minimised with better interventions. The lower uncertainties and enhanced predictability of the entire process will encourage participation of the financial entities to support such sectors. The policy and technology interventions for enhanced and sustainable aquaculture is a major requirement. India has failed to take advantage of its vast tropical littoral waters due to lack of prioritising of the digital ocean initiative. The acoustic capacity and capability building is again a key requirement for Digital Ocean, and if managed well could be a significant export opportunity of the Skill India initiative [25].

There is a substantial strategic angle to shrimp habitats and generating deeper understanding of their soundscape. They are known to be the loudest of the creatures with vocalisation ranging beyond 200 dB ref 1 μPa at 1 m. Even the biggest mammal on earth, the blue whale vocalisation is of the order of 196 dB ref 1 μPa at 1 m. The whales are in few numbers (in single digits) in a group, whereas the shrimps are in millions in a shrimp bed. There have been incidents in the past when a submarine has been acoustically swamped due to snapping shrimp vocalisation. The Indo-Pacific region is going to be a major maritime theatre for submarine deployment. The nations within have also acquired strategic submarines and Underwater Domain Awareness (UDA) for submarine deployment requires no emphasis. There are multiple other aspects of UDA that need to be prioritised for strategic security purposes ranging from maritime intelligence against undersea intrusions, effective deployment of subsea vehicles, mitigating the sub-optimal sonar performance to more demand high priority in the ongoing geopolitical and geo-strategic developments.

Conclusion

The high-end technology developments globally have taken place during the Cold War period. Even the underwater technology developments have largely taken place as part of the super-power rivalry. The Americans and the Russians have deployed huge resources to generate better understanding of the undersea domain for ensuring enhanced sonar performance. However, the engagement during the Cold War period were in the temperate and polar regions. The Cold War had different geopolitical and geo-strategic realities. Military spending was not questioned and military projects did not require any environmental clearances as well. The post-Cold War era has completely different political scenario. Even in the US and other democracies, the leaders have to balance socio-economic requirements along with national security requirements. The environmental clearances cannot be bypassed for national security projects. Pooling of resources and synergising of efforts across the stakeholders is the only way ahead. Geo-economics has taken the high ground and geopolitics has to match the economic growth engine trajectory.

The tropical littoral challenges and opportunities have to be driven by S&T and site-specific R&D. This requires high infrastructure investments and long-term commitment to develop the know-how. User-Industry-Academia partnership is inescapable. All the stakeholders have to be committed on a long-term basis to this model. Beyond the nations, the regional frameworks will make more sense and also keep the extra-regional powers at bay. The fragmented stakeholder interactions within the nations and also in the region is a major impediment to ensuring higher synergy. Digital Oceans driven by the UDA framework can be a game changer. It will be a paradigm shift for ensuring safe, secure, sustainable growth for all in the Indo-Pacific region.

India has taken multiple steps to build maritime infrastructure and the SAGAR vision demonstrates significant seriousness on the part of the Government of India. A User-Academia-Industry partnership model is presented in figure-5, for realising the Digital Ocean dream. It binds together multiple announcements from the Government of India and also the stakeholders both in the marine and the freshwater systems.

Fig. 5 User-Academia-Industry Partnership for the UDA Framework

Figure-5, brings all the core R&D domains on one side of the funnel and the government initiatives on the other, to provide the three main pillars of the UDA framework. The effective policy intervention, innovative technology support and the acoustic capacity & capability all seamlessly will come together across the stakeholders. The UDA framework proposed by the MRC has significant merit for a whole of nation approach. The above User-Academic-Industry interface can be implemented on ground with the setting up of a Centre of Excellence to build on all the five major requirements of research, academia, skilling, incubation and policy. The details of the COE is attached in Enclosure-1. (Where is Enclosure 1)

The SAGAR vision of the Prime Minister is better served by effective realisation of the UDA framework in a comprehensive manner. China is aggressively trying to make inroads into the IOR and to counter them will not be easy. The Whole-of-Nation Approach is extremely critical given the geo-political and geo-strategic realities. Beginning with the IOR and then the Indo-Pacific region will require the support of UDA framework. India can play a leadership role in the region and ensure that the extra-regional powers are kept away with enhanced S&T superiority and local site-specific R&D.

Author Brief Bio: Dr(Cdr) Arnab Das is Founder & Director, Maritime Research Centre (MRC), Pune

References

[1]      “Confluence of the Two Seas”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Japan. August 22, 2007. Speech by H.E. Mr. Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan at the Parliament of the Republic of India. Available at https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/pmv0708/speech-2.html.

[2]     https://thediplomat.com/tag/quadrilateral-security-dialogue/.

[3]     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pacific#/media/File:Indo-Pacific_biogeographic_region_map-en.png.

[4]     Arnab Das and D.S.P. Varma, “Ocean Governance in the Indian Ocean Region – An Alternate Perspective”, Maritime Affairs, 2015, pp. 1–19.

[5]     http://indiafoundation.in/sagar-indias-vision-for-the-indian-ocean-region/.

[6]     Blog Post by Alyssa Ayres, from Asia Unbound: A Few Thoughts on Narendra Modi’s Shangri-La Dialogue Speech, June 1, 2018. Available at https://www.cfr.org/blog/few-thoughts-narendra-modis-shangri-la-dialogue-speech.

[7]https://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/Indian%20Ocean%20Region_v6(1).pdf

[8]https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/sites/default/files/Indian_Maritime_Security_Strategy_Document_25Jan16.pdf.

[9]     Joseph L. Nimmich and Dana A. Goward, Maritime Domain Awareness: The Key to Maritime Security, International Law Studies – Vol 83, Global Legal Challenges: Command of the Commons, Strategic Communications and Natural Disasters, Edited by Michael D. Carsten, 2007. Available at https://www.usnwc.edu/Research—Gaming/International-Law/New-International-Law-Studies-(Blue-Book)-Series/International-Law-Blue-Book-Articles.aspx?Volume=83.

[10]   “Amendments to the International Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue (IAMSAR) Manual”. International Maritime Organization. MSC.1/Circ.1367 24 May 2010. Available at http://www.imo.org/blast/blastDataHelper.asp?data_id=29093&filename=1367.pdf.

[11]   Cdr Steven C. Boraz, U.S. Navy, “Maritime Domain Awareness
Myths and Realities”, Naval War College Review, Summer 2009, Vol. 62, No. 3.

[12]   Arnab Das (2016), “Impact of Maritime Security Policies on the Marine
Ecosystem”, Maritime Affairs: Journal of the National Maritime Foundation of India, 12:2, 89-98.

[13]   Arnab Das, “Marine Eco-Concern and its Impact on the Indian Maritime Strategy”, Chapter 5, MRC Press Feb 2017.

[14]   Sarabjeet Singh Parmar, “Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean A Changing Kaleidoscope”, Journal of Defence Studies, Vol. 7, No. 4, October–December 2013, pp. 11–26.

[15]   Alok Bansal (2010) Maritime Threat Perceptions: Non-State Actors in the Indian Ocean Region, Maritime Affairs: Journal of the National Maritime Foundation of India, 6:1, 10-27.

[16]   SHARACHCHANDRA M. Lele, “Sustainable Development: A Critical Review”, World Development, Vol. 19, No. 6, pp. 607-621, 1991.

[17]   Joris Larik et al., “Blue Growth and Sustainable Development in Indian Ocean Governance,” The Hague Institute for Global Justice Policy Brief, 2017.

[18]   Dr. P. K. Ghosh & Sripathy Narayan, “Maritime Capacity of India: Strengths and Challenges” Observer Research Foundation. Available at https://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Maritime Capacity_of_India.pdf.

[19]   Paul C Etter, “Underwater Acoustic Modelling and Simulation”, Fourth Edition, CRC Press, 2013, Taylor and Francis Group.

[20]   Arnab Das, “Marine Eco-concern and its Impact on the Indian Maritime Strategy,” Journal of Defence Studies, Vol 8, No. 2, Apr 2014.

[21]   Arnab Das, “New Perspective for Oceanographic Studies in the Indian Ocean Region,” Journal of Defence Studies, Vol 8, No. 1, Jan 2014.

[22]   Steven Stashwick, “US Navy Upgrading Undersea Sub-Detecting Sensor Network”, The Diplomat, November 04, 2016. Available at https://thediplomat.com/2016/11/us-navy-upgrading-undersea-sub-detecting-sensor-network/.

[23]   Arnab Das (2019) Underwater radiated noise: A new perspective in the Indian Ocean region, Maritime Affairs: Journal of the National Maritime Foundation of India, 15:1, 65-77, DOI: 10.1080/09733159.2019.1625225.

[24]https://mrc.foundationforuda.in/documents/researchNotes/Interns/Report%20on%20Sediment%20Management%20Framework%20for%20Tropical%20Littoral%20Waters.pdf

[25]https://mrc.foundationforuda.in/documents/researchNotes/Interns/APY%20Analysis%20for%20Shrimp%20Farming.pdf

India’s Jammu airbase was subjected to two explosions at 1.27 AM and 1.32 AM on June 27, 2021 that were caused by two armed drones.^[i] The incident is being investigated by Indian security agencies to ascertain motive, plot and players behind the attack. Simultaneously, induction of counter-drone systems to prepare for such attacks in future is being pursued. Some questions which have come up post the attack are:

• Why have small armed drones become a new challenge?
• Should India ban drone operations?
• Does India have counter drone capability?
• What should India do to build indigenous counter drone capability?

Small Armed Drones: An Evolving Threat

India has witnessed increased rogue drone activity along its Western border with Pakistan in recent years. However, armed attack on a military installation has occurred for the first time, increasing the sub-conventional threat level. Today, advances made in the filed of artificial intelligence (AI), sensors, weapons systems and navigation technologies have increased accuracy, lethality and effectiveness of small armed drones, enabling them to operate intelligently and undertake complex missions individually, collaboratively and as swarms. The impact of these technologies was demonstrated in the employment of drone swarms by the Israeli military in combat operations against Palestinian Hamas fighters for the first time in May 2021.^[ii] China too has developed armed Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) swarms, which presents a challenge for India.

Air Defence systems across the world have been geared to countering the threat posed by large and fast-moving flying machines and not for detecting small, slow and low flying drones. The small size, extensive use of carbon composites, plastics, low radar signatures and insignificant noise levels of electric motors make it difficult for the existing air defence system to detect and neutralise small drones. These limitations came to the fore when drones were used in an attempted assassination attempt on the Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro in 2018. Drones were also used to attack Russian air bases in Syria in 2018, the Aramco oil facility of Saudi Arabia in 2019 and the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict in 2020. Despite the attack on the Saudi oil facility in 2019, the Saudi’s were unable to prevent another attack by drones on King Khalid International Airport in 2021, despite possessing an advanced air defence network.^[iii] Neither could Russia prevent drone attacks in Syria despite being one of the largest defence equipment manufacturers.

India has a comprehensive Air Defence network, but its ability to detect small, slow, low flying drones is under development. This capability was however showcased at the Aero-India-2021 exhibition in Bangalore. The systems are undergoing operational and validation trials and are yet to be inducted into the field force. The parallel evolution of drone and counter drone technologies makes the threat of small rogue armed drones an evolving one that would require continuous and urgent research, development, and up-gradation of counter drone technologies.

Ban Versus Enabling Policy

The mere introduction of regulations is unlikely to deter an adversary or radicalised non-state actors from employing rogue drones. The Jammu drone attack could not be prevented despite promulgation of stringent UAS Rules on March 12, 2021. It may however be necessary to place certain restrictions in sensitive areas to identify potential threats. Also, defence forces must have the right to shoot down drones that violate red zones and operate over prohibited areas.

As a follow up to review of UAS Rules-2021, Ministry of Civil Aviation (MOCA) released draft drone rules-2021 on July 15, 2021^[iv] to replace UAS Rules-2021. This indicates the sensitivity of the political leadership in providing an enabling environment to the drone sector. It also indicates the inability of senior leadership in MOCA in addressing concerns of the domestic industry. There are 20,600 registered drone users while number of unregistered users is much higher and unmapped.^[v] However, there is a need to be cautious here as often liberalisation of rules without careful deliberations helps importers and assemblers more than domestic manufacturers.

Counter Drone Technologies

Counter drone technologies are premised on detection of drones and their subsequent neutralisation, though both hardball and soft kill options.

• Small, slow, low flying drones can e detected by short range radar, Electro-Optic (EO), Infra-Red (IR) and acoustic detection systems. Radar has the potential to provide non-cooperative detection capability without the active support of target drones. The Radio Frequency (RF) systems provide detection at relatively shorter ranges but are effective only if rogue drone is emitting RF signal. The EO and IR systems are passive detection systems that provide visual detection by day and night respectively but they have lesser ranges than RF systems and radar. The EO/IR sensors are useful for revalidation (secondary validation) of the threat, followed by terminal tracking and launching of counter measures. Lastly, acoustic systems use acoustic signatures to detect small drones at close ranges but are effective if there is no conflicting noise in the vicinity and noise profile of the rogue drone is recorded in the library of the detection system.
• Neutralisation. Drone neutralisation systems can broadly be divided into ‘soft kill’ and ‘hard kill’ systems. The former involves neutralisation of sensors, control and navigation systems through jamming, spoofing, or making rogue drones land away from their intended target, sending them back, or capturing them. This is achieved by jamming and spoofing Global Positioning Systems (GPS), jamming their radio frequencies (that are used by drone operators for controlling the drones), and for jamming or spoofing of internal communication of drone swarms. The jammers can be ground based as well as placed on airborne platforms. However, jamming has some inherent disadvantages as it may jam own drones and other users in that area. Therefore, power of jammer and intended areas of jamming have to be clearly defined.^[vi] The hard kill systems being developed include lasers, microwave systems and physical destruction by guns, missiles, or suicide drones. Today, most counter drone systems being developed are hybrid systems comprising multiple detection and neutralisation systems. These include combinations of radar, RF, EO/ IR detection systems; lasers, RF jammers, drone nets, guns, suicide drones, defender drone swarms and other neutralisation systems that are integrated into one system. Such systems require automation for critical decision making in real time, though human interface would also be required to prevent counter drone systems from being duped with newer innovations.

Airborne Counter Drone Systems

Small armed drones, individually or in collaboration may outsmart a flying platform and overcome speed disadvantage by concealing their approach and intelligent routing by using artificial intelligence. On the other hand, slow moving manoeuvrable flying platforms like helicopters and trainer aircraft, when equipped with suitable counter drone systems would be able to defend themselves when airborne, as well as provide airborne protection during national and international events and other contingencies.

As of now, most aircraft systems are not suited to take on small, slow and low flying drones. India had armed Cheetah helicopters with guns and three 70 mm rockets and named it Lancer. However, these helicopters did not have detection systems to detect rogue drones.^[vii] While India is currently developing a number of land-based hybrid counter drone systems, there is no known project to develop airborne counter drone system. As such systems are being developed globally, India too needs to start such programmes, else it be left behind and be forced to import the same.

Air Defence

The responsibility for Air Defence (AD) rests with the Indian Air Force (IAF). The Army and Navy have certain embedded operational AD capability for protection during operations. The air threat in the past was posed by fast and large flying machines, whose detection distance varied from hundreds of kilometres to tens of kilometres. However, threat posed by small, slow, low flying drones has reduced detection distances to below tens of kilometres, which makes it impossible for the IAF to provide air defence against such threats in all parts of the country.

Besides hard and soft kill options discussed earlier, the drone threat can be mitigated through effective intelligence operations to apprehend the operator, which would prevent the drone from getting airborne. Therefore, police (of various states and union territories), para-military forces and other agencies involved in providing security to VAs and VPs would become new players in the AD network. Also, there may be a requirement to formulate simple but digitised mechanism to track legal drones without becoming unduly intrusive for the industry.

The new counter drone systems would need to be integrated with existing Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) of the IAF. On the other hand, legacy air defence systems of sister Services may need to be modified to integrate new counter drone systems. In addition, integration of police, CAPF, PMF and other forces protecting VAs and VPs in the air defence network also needs to be examined. Accordingly, protocols for operations, SOPs, training patterns, etc. would need to be formulated. The synergy and integration between existing air defence network and new players would become another key pillar of counter drone eco-system. However, an AD network comprising multiple security organisations with diverse cultures, training, and operations philosophies would pose new challenges, which would have to be overcome.

Counter drone technologies can mitigate a threat but cannot eliminate it. There would be a need to impose deterrence against potential users of such systems. This would require political resolve and developing offensive capability.^[viii]

Procurement Versus Development Dilemma

The existing approach of procuring best products and stipulating tight timelines for induction of defence equipment are two major reasons for struggle of Indian industry in replacing foreign OEMs. Indian manufacturers lack infrastructure, scale of manufacturing and funding to compete with big players and their products do not match up to what is available across the world. But if we continue with imports, then the defence industry will never grow, making us continually dependent on foreign powers. Obviously, a strategy is needed to get out of this impasse. With respect to the manufacture of counter drone systems, the following questions need to be answered:

• Can Indian companies provide counter drone solutions?
• What is the role of stakeholders in the government and users in facilitating development of indigenous capability?

The status of indigenous capability in counter drone technologies, role of users and large industrial entities, factors contributing to failure of domestic industry and way forward to make India self-reliant is discussed below.

Indigenous Capability

India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), in collaboration with private and public sector entities has developed a D-4 hybrid counter drone system comprising both hard and soft kill systems. Its detection systems comprise radar providing 360 degrees detection up to 4 km, RF system up to 3 km and Electro Optic/Infra-Red system up to 2 km, while its neutralisation systems comprise of RF/ Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) jammer having a range of 3 km and laser for physical destruction of rogue drones up to a range of 1 km. DRDO demonstrated its system to National Security Guard (NSG) as well as deployed it on VVIP protection duties in the last one year. However, there was a lack of participation in the development of the above by the user agencies, namely the defence forces.^[ix] This lacuna needs to be plugged.

DRDO has taken BEL as the production partner and would benefit from its expertise. On its part, BEL has collaborated with Grene Robotics to jointly develop AI based autonomous Operating System (OS), which is named as air defence dome.^[x] Grene Robotics OS is an AI based platform that would provide air defence cover through a unified, distributed, wide area coverage system named as “Indrajal”. It integrates radars, EO/IR, Electronic Support Measures (ESM), jammers and third-party weapon systems and enables local and networked command and control operations with autonomous counter drone capability. However, companies like Grene Robotics are small companies that need handholding by large private and public sector companies to improve manufacturing quality and scale up production for large orders.^[xi] It would invigorate the defence sector if such hand holding takes place for niche technologies being provided by small companies and new start ups. Some of the startups which have excelled are Big Bang Boom Solutions, which has developed Anti-Drone Defence System that comprises RF and EO detectors and RF jammer,^[xii] the Gurutvaa Systems Private Limited, which has developed a spoof emitter and a hand held jammer which can carried in backpack as well as installed on a vehicle,^[xiii] Zen Technologies Private Limited, whose counter drone system is evolving into a multiple sensor system comprising three detection systems^[xiv] and Mikrobotix, which manufactures micro and small drones that carry variety of payloads, and has indigenously developed a suicide quad copter drone using cameras and artificial intelligence for counter drone role.^[xv] There are other small players too in this field such as VEM Technologies, Timetooth Technologies and EDITH Defence systems, which indicates a bright future for domestic manufacturing.^[xvi]

The bigger names in the Indian defence sector are also showing an interest in drone and counter drone technologies. Towards this end, L&T has tied up with ideaForge^[xvii], while Reliance Industries has acquired majority stake in Indian drone start up Asteria Aerospace.^[xviii] Adani Defence and aerospace^[xix] has collaborated with Elbit systems of Israel to manufacture drones and sell its counter drone system in India. Similarly, Jugapro,^[xx] a company known for selling hanger doors, has collaborated with the US startup company Fortem Technologies to sell its counter drone systems. However, in the counter drone domain, the investment of big companies in research and development of counter drone technologies has been negligible, which needs to change.

The DRDO has developed 1-kW, 10-kW and 20-kW laser weapons, while Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) has developed high power purse electron accelerator kilo ampere linear injector (KALI-5000) capable of generating 650 keV energy with electron beam power of 40 GW. It has also developed microwave systems having a frequency range of 3-5 GHz and power of 1-2 GW.^[xxi] The challenge for Indian developers would be in miniaturisation these systems for ease of transportation on ground and carriage by aircraft to develop airborne counter drone systems.

Why Domestic Industry Fails?

As stated earlier, India’s public and private defence sector is caught in a bind. The defence requirements are immediate while indigenous production capacity is constrained in terms of levels of R&D and inability to produce equipment of matching capability in the available time. The foreign OEM thus bags the order, which in turn adversely impacts the domestic innovators who have been involved in research, design, development and manufacturing of counter drone systems. It is thus a make-or-break situation for the Indian industry and innovators who are mostly start-ups & MSMEs. A few of them have proven their capability by winning technological challenges presented by defence forces through iDEX, Technology Development Fund (TDF) and Mehar Baba competition. However, survival of domestic innovators and manufacturers depends upon the orders received from defence forces, their only customer; otherwise, they would disappear from Indian drone and counter drone manufacturing landscape.

Indian innovators struggle to compete with leading global manufacturers when users and policy makers from defence place large orders with tight timelines for supply. The aspiration for acquiring the best by the defence forces is well understood, but it hurts the Atmanirbhar Bharat mission. In addition, the introduction of seemingly liberal provisions in the policy that open up business (import) and simplify compliance on the pretext of competition, suits import and foreign OEMs. Foreign OEMs export in large numbers and sell them in India at cheap rates till indigenous products become uneconomical and indigenous manufacturers close their business.

Against these Qualitative Requirements, most Indian companies do not qualify, despite having some of the cutting-edge technologies and capabilities. As a result, foreign OEMs win tenders in a seemingly fair way. This is how domestic industry and innovators, despite being promising, fail to survive due to lack of support system in India and absence of handholding culture. On the other hand, Global OEMs win the contract and acquire Intellectual Property Rights of promising Indian innovators. This is an example of how not to support domestic industry, which needs to change.

A case study of the aviation industry in this regard is instructive. HAL had developed the HF-24 Marut fighter-bomber aircraft in the 1960s. It was the first Indian-developed jet aircraft, but its production was shelved in favour of assembling the Soviet Union made MiG-21 fighter jets in India. This made India dependent on the latter. As a result, capability of HAL in due course was downgraded from high value design and development establishment to a low value assembly company. It took India almost five decades to correct this anomaly when Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) came into being. LCA was the outcome of indigenous effort and not foreign coproduction collaboration. Therefore, any attempt to acquire large number of counter-drone systems, including through Make in India, would have an adverse impact on domestic counter drone industry. We therefore need to keep India’s long-term interests in mind in our procurement policy.

Building Indigenous Counter Drone Capability

We need an enabling environment to keep talent in India. Many Indians have excelled abroad, such as Satya Nadella of Microsoft and Sunder Pichai of Google, but even so, India’s Information Technology (IT) and auto industry have not yet become design and development hubs of the world and have remained relatively low value service industries. India is yet to have its own versions of Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Twitter, etc. as also cars with global presence. We therefore need to focus on developing indigenous technological capabilities by providing an enabling ecosystem to domestic industry and creating preferential mechanism for inducting domestic products.

India’s former President, Late Shri APJ Abdul Kalam warned that Make in India is “Quite Ambitious” and that it has to be ensured that India does not become the low-cost, low-value assembly line of the World.^[xxii] Today, India is at a critical juncture where it needs to induct large number of counter drone systems for multiple security agencies. It would be prudent to take into account the above caution of our former President, while formulating strategy for building this capability.

Ground Systems. Indian public and private sector companies have developed a number of detection and neutralisation systems; however, these systems individually are not holistic systems and do not provide assured detection and neutralisation. A few manufacturers collaborated with fellow manufacturers by leveraging their respective strengths to develop hybrid counter-drone systems; however, some gaps still exist. Also, counter drone systems required for static army and air force formations would be different from those required to protect moving convoys and ships. Protection of ships that are continuously rolling and pitching when docked as well as while moving over open seas would be an entirely different challenge and would require gyro-stabilisation as well as modifications in software and hardware. The civil aviation and other security agencies would prefer armed rogue drones to be captured or escorted to safe locations so that they do not pose threat to airport, aircraft, passengers, VAs and VPs. Lastly, while developing countermeasures against small drones, designers need to consider that loitering munitions, and other manned and unmanned aircraft would also be operating within the same airspace. Therefore, counter drone systems should not only be able to counter small rogue drones but also integrate with air defence systems and provide seamless defence against all air threats, without disrupting normal peace time air operations.^[xxiii]

Airborne Counter Drone Systems. These systems would provide much needed mobility and enhance range and effectiveness of counter capability. The airborne counter drone platform could be another drone, helicopter or an aircraft. Smart air defence drone with necessary detection and neutralisation sensors would be the best choice to counter rogue small drones. Therefore, it would be prudent to equip helicopters and other aircraft with counter drone capability to protect them from drone attacks as well as to neutralise rogue drones. Light Utility Helicopter (LUH), Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) and Hindustan Turbo Trainer-40 (HTT-40) are three potential platforms that could be equipped with counter drone systems. They are ideally suited to undertake counter drone tasks during national and international events and in specific threat scenarios due to their slow speed handling characteristics, high manoeuvrability, ability to launch quickly and adequate payload carrying capability.

Indian industry has adequate potential to produce drone and counter drone systems in India. However, their expertise is dispersed as they are developing different elements of counter drone systems in silos, which need to be integrated. To build a holistic counter-drone system, there is a need to integrate multiple detection and neutralisation systems developed by different public and private sector companies, which can be achieved by leveraging following technology development programs:

• iDEX conducted by Defence Innovation Organisation has open competition, Defence Innovation Start up Challenge (DISC) and iDEX 4 fauji. Industry, individual innovators, academia and R&D institutions have opportunity to participate in each of these competitions where grants up to 50% of project cost with maximum up to Rs 1.5 crore are given.^[xxiv]
• DRDO provides funding under Technology Development Fund (TDF) for self-reliance in defence technologies covering up to 90% of the project cost and a development period of two years.^[xxv]
• Department of Science and Technology (DST)’s Device Development Program (DDP) provides funding for indigenous development and manufacturing of devices and has identified drones and anti-drone devices as key areas for development in 2020.^[xxvi]
• Global Innovation and Technology Alliance (GITA), a Public Private Partnership (PPP) program, provides funding up to 50 % of expenditure on R&D for new technology / products in partnership with industries from Canada, Israel, Korea, Italy, Spain, Sweden for delivering marketable products and services to Indian and global markets.^[xxvii]

Mehar Baba and iDEX competitions are conducted by IAF and DIO respectively. Mehar Baba provides larger funding while iDEX not only provides lower funding but also requires equal share of funding by the participants. Mehar Baba competition provides equal opportunity to DRDO, Defence Public Sector Units (DPSU)s, academia, individual innovators and private sector entities to develop urgently needed as well as niche technologies while in iDEX, DRDO & DPSUs do not participate. These competitions facilitate transformation of an idea into a product and induction into defence forces if found suitable. This is exactly what is needed in India.^[xxviii] However, these competitions, despite their promise, have following limitations:

• The quantity and timelines for procurement of product from winners of iDEX and Mehar Baba competitions are not defined, which is a major limitation. As a result, transformation of innovative prototype into finished products and commercialisation is hampered. The winners of these competitions are unable to cope with the huge cost of development and delay in lack of procurement by their only buyer, i.e. the military.
• The funding provided by Defence Innovation Organisation (DIO) under iDEX is limited to 50% of the project cost with an upper limit of Rs 1.5 crore. Also, iDEX and Mehar Baba participants are expected to produce quality equivalent to global OEMs like Raytheon, Elbit, etc., who get much higher funding from their respective militaries, DARPA, Defence Innovation Unit (DIU) and equivalent organisations. Development of some of the high technology defence equipment requires much higher funding and current limit is inadequate to support development of high cost defence technologies.

Mehar Baba Competition was launched in 2018; however, launch of second edition is still awaited. Whether it was lack of leadership, ownership, foresight or absence of follow-on plan, an end to Mehar Baba Competition, one of the most progressive innovation projects of India, would be a tragedy for defence innovation in India.

In a welcome development, Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY), in partnership with Border Security Force, launched BSF High Tech Undertaking for Maximising Innovation (BHUMI) Grand Challenge on July 02, 2021, to identify impactful solutions from startups to address three problem statements, out of which one of them relates to development of Anti Drone Technology.^[xxix] This is the first time BSF is leading the development of innovative technologies, which is a good beginning and it should be transformed into an annual challenge with certain procurement assurance to develop niche technologies indigenously.

Individual and uncoordinated development, trials and procurement by defence Services, their field formations, CAPFs, BCAS (MOCA), NSG and other security forces provides opportunity to foreign OEMs and their Indian supplier to sell their products by out-manoeuvring domestic manufacturers, which needs to be corrected.

The key challenge to capability building in India is lack of involvement of users in the development projects as partners. The defence forces of leading defence-manufacturing nations not only provide funding for research projects but also involve their personnel in technology development with their industry as owners. The gaps between expectations of users and systems developed by Indian public and private sector entities becomes a major limitation when competing against leading global OEMs, who fine tune their systems while working closely with their defence forces.

Indian counter-drone industry led by small startups, individual innovators and MSMEs lacks capability to scale up production and expand business. They would need funding and expertise of big business houses to scale up production and formulate business strategies. The lack of investment by Indian industry provides foreign entities an opportunity to entice bright minds, which leads to brain and technology drain.^[xxx] High technology investments can bring disproportionate results as was seen in the case of FLIR, thermal sensor manufacturer of the US, which acquired Prox Dynamics, a Norwegian drone company that had developed black hornet nano drones for $134 million and thereafter became leading supplier of these drones.^[xxxi] Indian companies investing in Indian start-ups is thus a win-win situation for both as big industrial houses would gain from their foray into niche high value technologies, while start-ups, individual innovators and MSMEs would obtain much needed funding as well as expertise for scaling up production as well as for making their business and export strategies.

Way Forward

Much can be done to make India self-reliant in the field of counter-drone technology. This is an emerging market which has great potential to boost Indian manufacturing and job creation. As of now, domestic capabilities are dispersed among various public and private sector entities, which if harnessed can address India’s counter drone system requirements. Therefore, the following is recommended:

• Design bureaus of defence forces, and technical departments of police, security forces and MOCA may launch Mehar Baba or equivalent programs to develop pre-identified variants of counter drone systems with hard and soft kill capabilities that meet specific requirements of air, ground and naval forces, CAPFs, BCAS (MOCA) and other security agencies and facilitate their procurement through a single process. This counter drone system, in consonance with other air defence systems, should provide holistic air defence capability against all air threats.
• One of the programs, led by technical department of MOCA and MHA, should focus on developing counter drone systems that capture or take the rogue drone to safe locations or escort them out of danger areas in order to protect civil airports, urban population and strategic assets.
• IAF, IA and HAL should examine technical feasibility of integrating counter drone systems on LUH, LCH & HTT-40 aircraft and initiate their development as counter drone platforms.
• iDEX and Mehar Baba competitions amount is recommended to be increased to Rs 50 and Rs 200 crore respectively.
• Enhance funding for development of proof of concept of indigenously designed prototypes emerging out of competitive mechanisms like iDEX and Mehar Baba.
• Use Problem Definition Statement (PDS) as base to acquire assured quantity of products within a given timeline and give preference for procurement to indigenously designed products under Mehar Baba and iDEX.
• MoD should launch a challenge to miniaturise and increase efficiency of lasers and adopt them for operations as ground, vehicle based and aircraft-based counter drone systems.
• Development, miniaturisation and operationalisation of microwave counter drone systems should be given high priority due to swarm threat from adversaries.
• MoD and MHA should carry out joint assessment of existing air defence system of defence forces and corresponding elements in police, para-military and other forces, gaps in technology, procedures, and training, and prepare a roadmap to fill gaps and correct anomalies.
• MoD, MHA and MOCA should involve technically qualified personnel from defence, CAPFs, MOCA and other security agencies in the research, design and development teams of indigenous projects undertaken by DRDO, DPSUs, DST, Private Industry and Academia as required.
• Make Qualitative Requirements (QRs) realistic in Request for Proposals (RFPs); allow liberal delivery time for indigenously designed products and avoid emergency procurements from foreign OEMs. This would help to make India self-reliant.
• MoD, MOCA and DST, in collaboration with industry, may identify technology and capability gaps in areas such as sensors, motors and other systems (that India is dependent on through import) and indigenise them in a phased manner.
• Large Indian corporates should invest in R&D as well as handhold promising start-ups, individual innovators and MSMEs for further research, improving quality, scaling up production and export in international market.

Conclusion

By publishing draft drone rules on July 15, 2021, India has shown that it would not be deterred by drone threat to build a domestic drone industry; however, the devil lies in details and understanding the gap between intent and execution.

They many challenges that the counter drone industry faces have ben enumerated in this paper. These challenges need to be addressed on priority. Of special significance is the need to provide an enabling environment for the industry, user interface in the R&D phase, hand holding of the smaller players and framing rules which can push forward, the Prime Ministers directive to make India truly Atmanirbhar.

The threat of small-armed drones is a challenge as well as unique opportunity to harness diverse capabilities available with public and private sector entities to build robust counter drone systems and networks not only for India but also for export to friendly foreign countries. This is an opportunity which India must grasp by addressing administrative, bureaucratic and policy hurdles, and taking ownership of indigenous projects.

Author Brief Bio:

Group Captain Rajiv Kumar Narang VM, was commissioned in the helicopter stream of the Indian Air Force (IAF) in December 1989. He has flown more than 4700 hours over varied terrain comprising Siachen Glacier, mountainous regions of Himalayas, deserts and plains of India. He is a flying supervisor, qualified aircraft accident investigator and an alumnus of the prestigious DefenceServices Staff College (DSSC), Wellington, India. He has served in staff appointments at Air Headquarters and Headquarters Integrated Defence Staff (HQ IDS). He was awarded Vayu Sena Medal (VM) for meritorious service in 2000. He has served as Research/ Senior Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS) from September 2014 to April 2019.

References:

^[i] Lt Gen VK Saxena (Retd), Drone Threat: – The Big Picture, Vivekananda International Foundation,  https://www.vifindia.org/article/2021/july/14/drone-threat-the-big-picture, accessed on July 24, 2021.

^[ii] Zak Kallenborn, Israel’s Drone Swarm Over Gaza Should Worry Everyone, Defence One, July 07, 2021, https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/07/israels-drone-swarm-over-gaza-should-worry-everyone/183156/, accessed on July 24, 2021.

^[iii] David Hambling, Houthis Step Up Long-Range Drone Attacks on Saudi Oil Facilities, Forbes, March 31, 2021, https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/03/31/houthis-step-up-long-range-drone-attacks-on-saudi-oil-facilities/?sh=3a993c64142a, accessed on July 30, 2021.

^[iv] Draft Drone Rules-2021, July 15, 2021, The Gazette of India (Extraordinary) Part-II, Section-3, Sub-Section-(i) Ministry of Civil Aviation,  https://egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2021/228317.pdf, accessed on July 24, 2021.

^[v]Media Interaction by Hon’ble Minister for Civil Aviation (Shri Hardeep Puri), Drones for
Mass Bene t, Ministry of Civil Aviation, July 16, 2020, https://www.civilaviation.gov.in/sites/
default/ les/Presentation_on_Drones.pdf, accessed on April 17, 2021.

^[vi] Aurther Holland Micheal, Counter Drone Systems, Bard College, December 2019,  https://dronecenter.bard.edu/files/2019/12/CSD-CUAS-2nd-Edition-Web.pdf, accessed on July 24, 2021.

^[vii] Lancer, https://hal-india.co.in/Product_Details.aspx?Mkey=54&lKey=&CKey=90, accessed on August 05, 2021.

^[viii] Lt Gen Prakash Menon, India must strike to deter, any other policy for drone attacks will play into Pakistan’s hands, The Print, July 06, 2021, https://theprint.in/opinion/india-must-strike-to-deter-any-other-policy-for-drone-attacks-will-play-into-pakistans-hands/690306/, accessed on July 24, 2021.

^[ix] Rahul Singh, Our anti-drone technology can stave off threats: DRDO chief, Hindustan Times, June 30, 2021, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/our-anti-drone-technology-can-stave-off-threats-drdo-chief-101624993037673.html, accessed on July 24, 2021.

^[x] Autonomous Defence Done for Wide Aerial Protection,  Grene Robotics, December 10, 2020, https://grenerobotics.com/autonomous-defence-dome-for-wide-aerial-protection/,  accessed on August 05, 2021.

^[xi] V Geetnath, Hyderabad firm develops drone defence dome, July 09, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Hyderabad/hyderabad-firm-develops-drone-defence-dome/article35227828.ece, accessed on July 25, 2021.

^[xii] Big Bang Boom Anti Drone Defence System, Big Bang Boom Solutions,   http://bigbangboom.com/our-projects/, accessed on July 25, 2021.

^[xiii] Grurutvaa https://idex.gov.in/showcase-cpt/458, accessed on

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^[xv] Harish Alladi, http://www.mikrobotix.com/productdetails04.html, accessed on August

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^[xvii] L&T to offer drone technologies to Defence Forces, Business Line, February 07, 2020, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/lt-to-offer-drone-technology-to-defence-forces/article30760249.ece, accessed on August 01, 2021.

^[xviii] Reliance buys majority stake in drone company, Geospatial News, May 06, 2020, https://www.geospatialworld.net/news/reliance-acquires-asteria-aerospace-with-51-78-stake/, accessed on August 01, 2021.

^[xix] Adani Defence and Aerospace, https://www.adanidefence.com/unmanned-aerial-systems, accessed on August 01, 2021.

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^[xxv] Technology Development Fund, https://tdf.drdo.gov.in/scheme, accessed on August 08, 2021.

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^[xxviii] IAF’s Mehar Baba Prize, India’s first competition in defence sector: All you need to know, The Indian Express, October 16, 2021, https://indianexpress.com/article/india/iafs-mehar-baba-prize-indias-first-competition-in-defence-sector-all-you-need-to-know-5404071/?fbclid=IwAR1vGCGcfhnw7SmzscDHzh7lYOU-9uFhNRQYQWu4x7nq40OLI1c2FZQpxKY, accessed on July 24, 2021.

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Apurv Mishra: There is a view amongst policymakers, academics and business leaders that we are living through what they call a fourth industrial revolution, which is the result of a fusion of several technologies that are blurring the lines between our physical, digital and biological world. Do you agree with this assessment?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: The evolution of technologies from the Industrial Revolution, began with using steam, then moved to electricity, and then to electronics and communication engineering. There was a distinct separation between these technologies. The foundations of the present industrial revolution is off course based on the earlier technologies, but the shift from Industry 3.0 to Industry 4.0 has happened at a much faster rate. The rapidity of change is such that human societies may actually find it difficult to absorb those technologies. There is thus a need to focus not just on specific technologies, but also on their impact on human life, and on how we interact with each other and with the environment around us. Greater awareness is required among the users of this technology so that they are prepared for change. That is why there is a lot of discussion on the impact of industry 4.0 on human societies.

Apurv Mishra: What is your assessment of the disruption that these emerging technologies will bring upon the Indian economy and society, given that we are a developing country that is trying to showcase its leadership in the field of technology.

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: We need to look at the challenges that our country is facing today. One of course is security. Today we talk about not only the physical security at our borders but also cyber security. So, the physical and cyber domains need to be secured. It is also important to take care of our health system in the country. So, can we develop technologies that will make the health systems more affordable and more accessible to our population across the country? In agriculture, water usage is very heavy and consumes nearly 70 percent of the available fresh water. We need to innovate and produce high yield varieties of food grains, with reduced water consumption. Education is another important area, where we face the challenge of how to reach out to young 300 million students and meet their aspirations in universities and other learning institutions. If we build our universities and educational institutes at whatever rate that is physically possible for us then it may take another 100 years to meet everybody’s aspirations. That is why we need to look at alternate ways of reaching out to people by making our education more holistic and more flexible. Digital platforms could provide an answer. The new national education policy talks about various additional knowledge, which will be integrated and featured on these platforms, so that education becomes affordable and accessible to all. Another important area is the environment and the impact of climate change. Put together, security, health, agriculture, education and environment are prime concerns and these form the acronym SHAPE. So, if you want to shape the future of our country, these are the five areas where we need to do really innovative research.

Apurv Mishra: How well equipped are we to deal with these challenges. I am reminded of a 2015 quotation by Mr. Narayan Murthy where he said at the convocation ceremony of IAC Bangalore that “There has not been a single invention from India in the last 60 years that has become a household name globally, nor any idea that led to the earth-shaking invention to delight global citizens. Our youngsters have not done much impactful research work despite being equal to their counterparts in intellect and energy in western universities.” How do you assess the contribution of Indian universities to the field of science and technology since independence?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: I would rather prefer the term, Life Transforming Technologies, than some imaginary earth-shaking inventions. Over the last 50 years, there have been several life-transforming technologies developed in our country. The simplest example is the dairy cooperative societies that was started in Gujarat. All along we were thinking that only cow milk is suitable for producing milk powder. Dr Kurien and his team developed the technology for using buffalo milk to produce milk powder. That’s a life-transforming technology which has helped many farmers. Other examples abound, such as the development of highly efficient and pest-resistant seeds to help our farmers, which gave us the green revolution. There have been several formal and informal innovations that have been taking place in our country and I do not see our country lagging behind in terms of entrepreneurship. Today, India is rated as having the third largest entrepreneurial ecosystem. Many individuals in India are focused on becoming entrepreneurs, instead of taking up a job. There is a great future in terms of developing new technologies and becoming a leader in the world, but I also would like to state that the days of a scientist, sitting alone in a lab, looking through the microscope, and then coming up with a kind of eureka kind of invention, are over. Today, for scientists to come up with innovative ideas, they should be able to work in teams and with unlike minds. That is the only way we can come up with innovations. In India, we have taken several steps to encourage this kind of multi-disciplinary research in several universities. I would like to see more life-transforming technologies being developed in our country, which will positively impact the lives of the people down to the last person in the village. Many such things are happening and we need to be optimistic and hopeful, rather than being pessimistic.

Apurv Mishra: Let me now talk to you about some specific technologies that are on the verge of disrupting societies and economies around the world and let me start with your own subject area which is nanotechnology. Scholars, typically when they look at the lifecycle of technologies, use a four-phase framework where each technology goes to an R&D phase, an ascent phase a maturity phase and then eventually moves towards obsolescence. Where do you place developments in nanotechnology in this framework and which application of nanotechnology, do you think has the greatest potential to change our world in the coming years.

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: You are absolutely right. Any new technology that is being developed has these four cycles. In the case of nanotechnology, actually, there was too much hype. But fortunately, over a period of time, the technology matured. And now we know there are certain segments which can be developed at a rapid pace using nanotechnology. All of us are familiar with semiconductor technology which has advanced rapidly, is affordable and which has revolutionised communication technologies, affecting the lifestyle of everybody in the country. But there are other areas where nanotechnology can be a very futuristic opportunity for us. One is quantum computing, which is going to be a real necessity for us in future, especially with the collection and the storage of data. In today’s time, to process the data, we need extremely fast computers and only quantum computing can do that. Now, in quantum computing, there are several things that we need to do. One is, of course, using nanotechnology to develop these qubits and then the next challenge for us is how do you connect these cubits using interconnects. Today, in semiconductor technology, we are already facing a brick wall in terms of the speed of the processors, primarily because of the interconnect delays.  So tomorrow, if we want to develop extremely efficient quantum computers then how are we going to connect these qubits, is going to be another technological challenge. And the third most important thing is developing efficient algorithms because there will be qubit errors that will be generated when the data is transferred across the qubits, so you need efficient algorithms. It is a multidisciplinary approach, requiring electrical engineers, material scientists, physicists and computer scientists amongst others. In the last budget, INR 8000 crore was allotted for developing quantum computing in our country. Another area where nanotechnology will play a very disruptive role is in the pharmaceutical industry, in developing vaccines and drugs and in understanding the molecular structure of drugs. All this can be done using nanotechnology. In agriculture, nanotechnology will bring a revolution in terms of developing plants, which are pest resistant and which consume low quantities of water. So, there are many exciting possibilities with nanotechnology.

Apurv Mishra: Another technology that is generating a lot of hype is a new gene-editing technology called CRISPR whose pioneers got the Nobel Prize for Chemistry last year. This technology, in fact, got a lot of attention from mainstream media in 2018, when a Chinese scientist in Shanghai used CRISPR to create two gene-edited babies who were resistant to HIV. How do you assess the risks and rewards of the widespread use of gene editing?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: In gene editing, we identify a targeted part of DNA, remove it from the DNA and replace it with the other material there.  The work of the Chinese researchers in 2018 led to the birth of two girls, but there was huge consternation across the world. The outcry was not against the technology, but on the potential for its misuse. While research is important and should be encouraged, the ethical standpoint should also be kept in mind. If we develop proper ethical standards on how we use the outcome of the research, then we should promote our efforts to do innovative research in all areas.

Apurv Mishra: There is an American biologist, Mr. Edward Wilson, who famously said that the real problem of humanity is that we have paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology. When you look at the terrific potential of some of these emerging technologies like gene editing, experiments with viruses in government labs, the creation of artificial intelligence, development of unmanned aerial and terrestrial vehicles, then, is there a case to be made for drawing red lines on scientific research by governments. Are their certain kinds of experiments that governments should not allow scientists to work on, or are these expectations of imposing moral limits on technology, wrong?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: Our human mind is always in search of free-thinking. It always likes freedom. It doesn’t like curbs and that is how human societies have evolved. I think all areas of scientific research should be encouraged. Doing research is exploring our free minds. There should not be any curb on that but regulation is required when we want to use the product of this scientific research and we need a clear and ethical framework to decide on that. I will give you one simple example. When 30 or 40 years ago, scientists invented the cochlear implant for deaf persons, they thought they invented a great device. However, many deaf people approached them and questioned them on the need for such a device, stating that they were happy in their own world! Obviously, there was a disconnect, which should be avoided. When we do research, the stakeholders also need to be involved. Currently, what happens is that scientists sit in their labs and develop some great technologies, which they think is great for society. This process needs to be democratised by involving the stakeholders. In my view, I think any government regulation, which will affect the basic research itself may not be a good idea, but there should be regulations on how this technology will be used for human welfare.

Apurv Mishra: Given that you are describing the scientific process, we have today, multidisciplinary teams, sometimes working across geographies, on a particular research area. Is there a case to be made that it is even futile to expect governments to regulate scientific developments and experiments?

 

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: Human nature is to explore. Human nature doesn’t like to be bounded. So, therefore, any measures that we take, if it goes against human nature, will not be able to build any happy harmonious human societies.

Apurv Mishra: While talking about the role of governments in developing technological capabilities, two of India’s biggest success stories in this field are India’s space program and nuclear program, both of which were led by our government institutions. What are the lessons that we can learn from the success of these two programs to develop our technological capabilities in other critical areas?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: One clear lesson is that you can start from ground zero and become leaders in a specific technology. The other lessons that we had to learn from this experiment is that simply duplicating these experiments is not enough, because both the situation and the eco-system have changed. Take for example space technology, in which we are so successful. The components of successful Space Technology relate to good and very efficient propellers, small weight, high-efficiency fuels, heat resistant materials to make heat resistant shields for the rockets or for the vehicles which are re-entering into our atmosphere and so on. This is the greatest opportunity for us to involve other industries which can actually work on these areas. Therefore, besides government organisations, we need to encourage several other industries, the peripheral industries but central to the operation of the space program, to develop their technologies. The government must now act more like a catalyst to build and develop an ecosystem and not a similar kind of organisation. Once we develop the ecosystem, then several such industries will sprout and become big trees, strengthening our industrial ecosystem.

Apurv Mishra: There are two other technologies that are getting a lot of mainstream attention from the media these days. You spoke about the initial hype associated with nanotechnology. Gartner is a sort of firm which comes out with this annual hype cycle for emerging technologies to discern hype, from what’s commercially viable as far as technology is concerned. Can you share your views on the expectations that we should have from blockchain which is a technology that is getting a lot of attention from media these days? Do you think that it will fulfil the potential that people are talking about in transforming our lives?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: Our minds are conditioned to the existing technologies so when new technologies are developed then some technologies may create some kind of fear in our minds that it may disrupt our existing systems. So, we have only two options. One option is to keep away from data and technology. The other way is to master the technology so that it can be effectively used. Therefore, Blockchain is something that we cannot keep away from and especially when we have a globally interconnected world. We cannot remain as an isolated entity without getting affected. So, my feeling is that we need to get into blockchain technology and see how effectively we can use and integrate ourselves with the rest of the world. Who knows in future what new technologies will sprout on the horizon. If you want to deliver vaccines to some remote place then you can use unmanned vehicles and or if you want to secure your border or if you want to monitor the movement of any enemy troops, then we will have to develop our own technologies. There could be some time lag in terms of developing the technologies, as in the past we missed the semiconductor technology bus. But today, semiconductor technology has become so centralised. In fact, more than 60% of the chips are produced only from some of the Asian countries so they have become highly centralised and penetrating that may become a challenging task. Today we are talking about electronic waste. Where do you dump all these mobile phones and microprocessors because you use inorganic semiconductors in which we use a lot of plastic and the metals in these chips. So people are now looking to use organic semiconductors which are biodegradable, to make our electronic systems. We need to look around for such futuristic technologies and start early, so that we become leaders in those technologies in the world.

Apurv Mishra: The IPCC’s 4000-page report on climate change has made dire predictions about our medium to long-term future as a species, unless an immediate course correction is brought about. What role can technology play in mitigating global warming, and what is India’s role in developing these technologies for a more sustainable way of life?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: One of the reasons why climate change is happening is how we are leading our own lives. Today, we have come to believe that more consumption means more development, and we need to move away from that kind of attitude. We need to preserve our resources and use them as little as possible through reuse, recycle, kind of means. And we also need to think about our future generations and the world we are leaving behind for them. This is where some technologies can play a significant role. For example, we need to look at alternate ways to generate energy. Today, our focus is on renewable energy resources, such as solar power, wind power etc. Towards that end, we are now producing over a quarter of our requirement of energy using renewable energy resources. If we continue on the same path, India may actually become a role model for the rest of the world on how to generate energy using environmentally friendly means. So, there are several such technologies that we need to develop in order to control climate change. In India, we are also emphasising the use of electric vehicles. So, in the next 10-20 or 30 years, as we will see more electric vehicles moving on our roads, cutting down all the smoke that comes out of these vehicles. But here, there is another opportunity for us as a country. If you use electric vehicles, if you use solar power, you also require efficient batteries, and there is a lot of work that needs to be done. If we look at the last 150 years, the advancements that are taking place in battery technologies are not comparable to similar advances that have taken place in semiconductor technology or the pharmaceutical industry and so on. The materials that are required for making these batteries also is another challenge for us. Today we talk about lithium batteries, and there are only three or four countries that have huge deposits of lithium. So, instead of following the same path and in developing lithium ion-based batteries, we need to look at simple but efficient technologies like sodium batteries as sodium is abundantly available. And if we use sodium air batteries, their volume and weight also will come down. There are many such opportunities for us to develop new technologies in order to minimise or slow down the impact of climate change,

Apurv Mishra: The role of rare earth metals in the semiconductor industry has resulted in almost a global race between countries to acquire mines where these rare earth materials and minerals are produced. So, I want to ask you a larger philosophical question on the relationship between technology and society and its impact on individuals. In his seminal work, Future Shock, the futurist Alvin Toffler, predicted that the anxieties of a world are upended by rapidly emerging technologies. He spoke about how the root cause of most social problems in the times to come, would be the result of an accelerated rate of technological and social change that could leave people disconnected and suffering from what he called ‘shattering stress and disorientation’. How have his predictions about social paralysis, disorientation induced by rapid technological change held up?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: 100 or 200 years ago, if you look at the lifestyle of the people you know then they met the requirements for their family and themselves. If there was some surplus, it was shared with neighbours and that helped us in developing better relations with each other. But today, we have moved from such a situation of abundance to scarcity. Once that happens, there is so much competition among ourselves to access these scarce resources. The role of technology, therefore, should be to create that abundance so that human values such as compassion, sharing and loving each other, come to the fore. New technologies should not force us to lead a life of anxiety and mindless competition; rather, we should focus on improving not just the standard of living, but the quality of living. Also, we should focus on the importance of the diversity that we have, instead of indulging in identity politics. So, technology alone will not be able to provide the desired results for building human societies. We also have to look at the very nature of human beings, and then integrate these two in an effective manner. People need to understand the meaning of values and ethics. So, these values have to be instilled right from childhood, so that when they become adults, they become productive human beings in whatever work they do.

Apurv Mishra: What role do you think our civilisational values have in creating a society like this and in minimising the impact of “Future Shock on individuals and societies”?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: We need to focus on spiritual values. Sometimes it is also important for us to become philosophical, We do have a long civilisational continuity in our country. In addition to developing physically and materialistically, we must also give equal importance to the spiritual aspects of our life. In order to do that, it is important that we expose our students to the basic elements of philosophy in their school years. Philosophical issues will shape how we interact with each other. So, that is the reason why I strongly feel that both in the teacher training programs and right from childhood, elements of philosophy need to be taught to everybody.

Apurv Mishra: Thank You

Brief Bio:

Prof. Mamidala Jagadesh Kumar is an Academician, Administrator and Author who is currently the Vice-Chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and a professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering at IIT Delhi. And Mr Apurv Mishra is Senior Research Fellow at India Foundation.

Today, however impressive the strategy is, to make it work in scale and with effectiveness, implementation is key. The best strategy can come to naught, even be counterproductive if implemented poorly. There are many changes in technology that have made it easier to implement and administrate policies today. However, the essential characteristics of human nature – our thoughts and feelings — continue to be the same though the context is different. The past therefore becomes a useful tool to give us insights into how administration occurred in ancient, more complex times. Let us take a few examples from about 1000 years ago, found on the walls of temples in Tamil Nadu.

Why temples and why Tamil Nadu? Today, we see temples as primarily religious institutions. Perhaps some will also see them as repositories of art and architecture. In ancient times they were much more than that. Every aspect of government we have today and also the work done by NGOs, was performed by the temple for the local community. Temples provided employment, stored grain, safeguarded communal facilities, provided health and educational facilities and collected taxes / disbursed social schemes of the ruling king. The other vital role they played was in emotionally uniting the community. Kings therefore, found it expedient to identify themselves with God and the palaces with temples to increase the emotional connect and legitimacy to their rule.

Using the temple, the kings were able to get commitment from their people in addition to mere compliance (which is more temporary and harder to impose). Of course, rulers and subjects were also deeply moved by faith, but this socio-political motive cannot be ignored and must be seen as politically and economically expedient rather than “good” or “bad”. Temples in Tamil Nadu have the maximum number of inscriptions on their walls. Every line is only about the political/economic/social affairs of the community. There is no religious or philosophical text and therefore they become very unbiased records to study. Sadly, in other states, the inscriptions have seldom survived. While the inscriptions have been translated, published and discussed since the 19^th century, they have not made it to mainstream discussions and remain only in largely academic or history-enthusiast circles.

For those who are keen to learn more about Indian techniques of administration, they provide a wealth of ideas and information, relevant for today. For this article, let us take a few examples. First, around setting process in place and secondly on implementation and compliance.

A note on the organisation of the administration will be relevant. About 1000 years ago, at the height of the Chola power over Tamil Nadu, which also included parts of Karnataka, Telangana and Kerala, the general structure was far more federal in nature than it is today. The king was expected to provide security from external aggression and internal civil war. All the other matters of life were governed locally by elected representatives who were either land owners and or merchants or tradesmen. Maintenance of water bodies, relief from floods and drought were all local issues. At best a king would support by reducing or waiving taxes. The local bodies were even powerful enough to alter their rules of membership and elections as seen in the inscriptions of Manur (Tenkasi) and Uttiramerur. In a way, “minimum government and maximum governance was the unsaid way of work. The significant decisions connected to these communities were engraved on the walls of temples with the date, and the signature of witnesses. These are known as inscriptions or epigraphs. They give us truthful and unbiased information on actual issues that came up with formulation and implementation of strategy.

Creation of a Strategy

The largest land owner in the community was the temple. The income from the temple land, paddy, was given to the king (which was either taken to the capital or stored on his behalf in the temple itself), and the temple – which used it to pay salaries. Temples would also have land that was fallow and not cultivated. To increase their income, temples were always looking for long term leases of fallow land to those who will bring it under cultivation and pay taxes from that. These taxes could be either as produce or as copper coins.

There are several inscriptions on the mechanics of setting up a system like this. Here are some examples. Tirukolakudi is in Sivaganga district in southern Tamil Nadu. Although it is close to Karaikudi, famous as a tourist spot, it receives no tourists and pilgrims come only on important festival days. The main shrine is a cave temple that is stylistically dated to at least 9^th CE or earlier. It is one of the rare cave temples in the Pandya region and is remarkably hewn out of the parent hill rock and fully aligned and proportional. This has since been added to with subsidiary shrines. Below this, next to a beautiful pool of spring water is a smaller cave with an early bas relief of Ganesa; one of the oldest in the region. There are more temples further down and at the foot of the hill. All these temples are plain structures and have only 1 or 2 additional cells for pilgrims to stand and worship. We have no bhakti literature verses on these temples. At the top of the hill is a small shrine for Muruga or Karthikeya. Apart from the inscriptions, the temples are in a very scenic setting and deserve much more attention from pilgrims, tourists and researchers of medieval Indian history and politics. There are 82 inscriptions found on the walls of the various temples or on the rock of the hill itself.

An important inscription from 129 CE (ARE 1916, C66), in the reign of the Pandya king Jatavarman Sundara Pandya temple gives us an idea of the method a strategy was thought through. The long inscription is in Tamil and says, the Maheswaras, Sri Rudras, Devakanni (those who have leased out temple lands for cultivation), temple accountants gave some temple land to one Sundara Pandya Narasingadevan. He was allowed to enjoy them provided he would repair the water sources that had fallen into disuse, clear the jungle and for this use, he will pay a land tax or melvaram to the temple. The tax was dependent on the crop. It was 1/3^rd of the produce for tinai (foxtail millet) , varagu (kodo millet), ellu (sesame), payaru (lentil), kuruvai (short term rice crop), Karumbu (sugarcane), kozhundu, karunai, manjal (turmeric), inji (Ginger), sengazhuneer (lotus), vazhai (banana), vazhathalai (banana tree leaves to use as eating plates?), poosani (pumpkin) etc and for trees like ma (mango), pala (jack fruit), nathai , elumichai (lemon), kulaviruli, nelli (Gooseberry), iluppai (Madhuca Longiflora) etc., The tax was 1/5^th for crops like coconut, areca palms and 1/7^th for dry crops according to yield. This gives us a glimpse of crops cultivated at that time. The inclusion of lemon/lime is interesting for this period.

For land that he has brought into cultivation by clearing the jungle, he had to pay 1/10^th in the first year, 1/9^th in the second year, 1/8^th in the third year and 1/7^th in the fourth year and after that a permanent tax of 1/3^rd. This accounts for the effort he has to invest to make the land cultivable and is therefore fair on his efforts and the temple which was the land owner. The system can be compared to the SEZ policy of governments today. The inscription also specifies that the temple share belongs to the king and can be disposed in his pleasure.

Srirangam has the world’s largest temple and in this island and adjoining areas, the Kaveri River was prone to flooding. Land had to be reclaimed for cultivation and the similar method as above was used multiple times to show that this was a common practice across kingdoms in the Tamil country. From the reign of the Chola king, Kulotunga I (1070-1122), is an interesting donation from Arayan Sendan who lived in Ponpari village. He purchased leased land from the temple and in return funded a large orchard of jackfruit and kamugu (areca nut) trees. Also in the orchard were champak, karumugai (Cananga odorata) bushes and a pond for Sathapathi – a 1000 petal lotus. From the garden, a garland was required to be sent to the temple expressly for the night time puja.

Human nature being human nature, things were not always perfect, there were many instances when the fears of human beings made them put their selfish self-interest over the need of what was good for the community. This was punished either at the local level or by the king. Any act that resulted in reduction of revenue for the king or a threat to national security received quick and brutal punishment. Others were dealt with locally and decisions depended on the caste of the person (higher the caste, higher the punishment) or the economic prosperity of the convicted. Fines were the norm and the most severe punishment was social ostracism. There are many inscriptions on crimes and punishment that show that the justice procedure was far swifter and harsher than today.

The local assemblies performed the role of both enacting legislation and settling disputes. Since it was an agricultural economy, most disputes were connected with land boundaries and irrigation rights and issues. Criminal cases were not uncommon. History textbooks have traditionally told us the brahmins were the “priestly class”, but the inscriptions give us a more nuanced picture. The educated brahmin was well versed in the nyaya shastra or law books. That was the reason they were useful to the king – they ensured that justice was dispensed locally so that cases did not get escalated to the king who was the final judge. Today our higher courts are burdened with cases – the king wanted to avoid this and therefore supported brahmins, especially those well versed to play the role of a judge.

A 930 CE Chola inscription in the temple of Tiruninravur, Chennai is connected to the constitution and service of the judiciary. The village assembly met together and decided that the judges were elected from among themselves, provided they were qualified in legal treatises. They would serve for one year and would not serve after that for five years either as a judge or even in an administrative committee. The restriction of the five-year interval was reduced to two years in the case of relatives like fathers, brothers, or sons of those who had served before. This meant that even the relatives of a sitting judge were not permitted to take that position for two years after their relative was a judge.

The people who got together to decide this is also interesting. They were all land owners which meant they had a direct stake in the issue and all the various sub committees (variyam) were represented. The members included – the judicial assembly, the committee that maintained all water tanks that were common property of the village, the garden (orchard or oil yielding trees?) maintenance committee, the experts in shastras and the “distinguished people” or “visishta peru makkal” of the village. Sitting judges were debarred from holding other offices for their term, received one kunri of gold as payment, were expected to settle and hand over accounts at the end of the term to the committee and a fine of 20 gold coins were imposed on violators.

The Manur inscription deals with the constitution of a legislative and judicial committee. The Ambalanatha Swami temple is on a slightly raised part of land in the village of Manur. The temple is only locally known and is a small one with very few devotees. It is largely unknown outside the village and is similar to the thousands of other temples that dot the rural landscape of India. The interior of the temple is also plain and simple. Between the entrance and the main shrine are rows of pillars. One of them has a long inscription in Tamil script and Grantha script. The inscription is from the 35th reginal year of Pandya King Maranjadaiyan.  Not much is known about the king and the pillar has been painted many times over so even reading the text now is difficult. The pillar has no artistic value but the inscription is of enormous value for India.

The context can be surmised from the seven clauses in the inscription as follows. The original character of the village landowners seems to have undergone a change over the years. The composition of the Sabha had also had to change keeping this in mind.  In doing so, the rights of the descendants of the original land owners had to be safeguarded as well as those of the new landowners – who had either come into the village by purchasing land or as the sons-in-law of the original land owners.

The village is mentioned as Mananilainallur in Kalaikudi Nadu. The village is referred to as a Brahmadeyam – a village created by a king by giving a large parcel of land to a group of Brahmins who in turn split the shares, auctioned it to various communities and created a new village. The general body meeting was announced by beat of drum and conducted in the sacred place called Govardhana (possibly the raised area on which the temple stands?). The Vyavasta or resolution was as follows:

• The permanent members who had veto powers would include one person from the family of each of the original shareholders. They also had to be conversant with mantra brahmana inclusive of one dharma and be of good conduct. They could participate in all Mahasabha
• The above privileges in the Sabha were extended to those who already owned shares by purchase or gift or dowry provided they also had the same educational qualifications and were of good conduct.
• For the future, regardless of how they acquired property, – by purchase or gift or dowry, they cannot excersise the above powers and only be ordinary members. Depending on their property they can take part in in the deliberations at 1/4th, ½ and 3/4th.
• Those who purchased shares from the original shareholders, had to learn and pass an exam of an entire Veda including the parisista for membership of the first category.
• Those who purchased property/had rights to it by other means were to be bound by this agreement.
• Those who have no full-fledged power (sravanai) could not be in any of the subcommittees (Variyams) that worked under the mahasabha for the village.
• Sabha members who frequently obstructed proceedings by casting negative votes, were find five kasu (copper or gold coins, possibly copper) but would not lose their rights per this agreement.

While the actual working of the Sabha and the nature of the subcommittees are not documented, the entrance criteria, the rules for efficient transactions are remarkable for that period. Even more remarkable is that such far reaching political and judicial decisions of self-governance could be taken by a small village. Even by today’s standards of federalism, such autonomy is impossible to see.

How was corruption handled?

Human nature being what it is, corruption issues wasn’t very different then as it is now. Some inscriptions deal with how corruption was handled. Tiruvotriyur near Chennai has a large temple and was wealthy in the old days due to the salt pans and the port. The temple has a few inscriptions connected to corruption. In the 14^th CE, several temple employees had stolen property that belonged to the temple. When this was discovered, many of them had died by then. The king’s judicial officers seized land and houses belonging to them and auctioned them off. Kalavupattam was a fine levied on those who had made deliberate errors in measuring grain. Another inscription makes mention of how, in a periodic audit in the times of a Chola king, the pon variyam or the committee that received taxes in gold was found to have made errors in both the quantity of gold they had and the quality. A lengthy enquiry convicted the members and they were socially ostracised and their lands and houses sold to pay for the principal and interest of the missing amount. In another case in Tiruneermalai temple, the temple treasury box had several gold coins missing. However, the box was sealed and the door to the room was sealed and stamped as well. So, this was clearly an inside job. The priest and a watchman confessed and their land was taken away, rights they had in the temple revoked and they were asked to leave the village. In some occasions, the property of relatives of the guilty party were also not spared.

Criminal cases are also to be found. A frequent case is of two people going out for a hunt and one dies. If there is strong evidence that it was a mistake then the guilty is asked to fund an expiatory oil lamp for the temple and endow it with some land or animals to defray the expenses.

Conclusion

The past is past and the future is the future, never the two shall meet. However, the past is the root for the fruit of the future and looking at the way issues were managed, give us the following insights –

• Political authority used a strong emotional, feeling related bond to connect with people and maintain legitimacy and reduce ideological opposition.
• Temples were used as local institutions and were vested with rights and duties.
• Except for tax collection and security, all issues were locally managed through elected representatives.
• Decisions were largely taken in a transparent manner after a lot of discussion and deliberation and meticulously recorded.
• Punishments were strict, swift and followed established procedures and were not whimsical decisions taken by old men sitting under a tree.
• The general principal was that the good of the larger community was more important than individual good.
• One hopes that a deeper study of such administrative can inform policy formulation and implementation in India today.

Author Brief Bio: Pradeep Chakravarthy is a graduate of the London School of Economics and is in the last stages of his PhD research on administration in the mediaeval period and its relevance for today. He is the author of seven books with three more in press. He has worked in HR/Learning and development with Infosys and McKinsey and now works with organisations to help change behaviour and culture through Indic wisdom from history, mythology and philosophy. He is based out of Chennai.

In July 2010, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) intercepted electronic communications indicating that senior Al-Qaeda leaders had distributed a “strategy guide” to operatives around the world advising them how “to anticipate and defeat” unmanned aircraft. Al-Qaeda was sponsoring simultaneous research projects to develop jammers to interfere with GPS signals and infrared tags that drone operators rely on to pinpoint missile targets.

Other projects included the development of small radio-controlled aircraft, or hobby planes, which insurgents apparently saw as having potential for monitoring the flight patterns of U.S. drones. That same year, the CIA noted in a report that Al-Qaeda was placing special emphasis on the recruitment of technicians with expertise in drones technology.^[1]

The Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and other violent non-state actors, used the technology available on the consumer market to build or purchase small drones modified into “killer bees” capable of creating significant damage and terrorizing civilian and military populations. Drones can be used in various ways: surveillance, strategic communication, transportation (smuggling), disruption of events, complementing other activities or as a weapon.[2]

The first recorded successful attack by terrorists using drones was in mid-2013 when Hezbollah reportedly dropped two small explosive devices on Syrian rebel strongholds using a drone supplied by Iran.[3]

In 2015, Kurdish fighters in Syria shot down multiple small commercial drones laden with explosives, belonging to ISIS.

In 2016, ISIS announced the establishment of the “Unmanned Aircraft of the Mujahideen” unit whose purpose was to engineer UASs for the group to deploy in combat.  During coalition forces operations to regain Mosul in June 2017, ISIS flew more than 100 drones against frontline forces every month.[4]

Al-Qaeda has taken inspiration from these events. It planned to use drones to take down airliners using explosive-laden drones at airports in the US and the UK.

In most cases, ISIS used DIY “do it yourself” techniques to combine high- and low-tech components purchased from various connections across Asia and Europe. The program appears to have been shaped by two Bangladeshi brothers who recruited other operatives to work alongside them. They created a series of shell companies to acquire consumer drones from manufacturers in Asia, the US, and Canada. They would then use other shell companies to purchase components such as cameras and GPS units before activating them in the US or Europe. While the eventual capture of one brother and killing of another in a drone strike dramatically dismantled this network, the terror group was still able to obtain drones through other connections.[5]

As jihadis began using drones, they also began to share technology with each other – including technology they obtained from U.S. drones.[6]

Sunni jihadists

ISIS reportedly began using drones in its terrorist activities from 2013 in Syria and Iraq, for spreading propaganda, reconnaissance and attacks. In August 2014, it uploaded propaganda images on the internet of aerial shots taken of bases of hostile forces in Raqqa, in northern Syria, which was its first public display of using drones. From 2016 to 2017, it loaded bombs onto drones and dropped them from the air in successive attacks. As ISIS-controlled areas were scaled down in Syria and Iraq, opportunities for drone usage also decreased; however, drones were discovered in hideouts of ISIS fighters in Iraq in September 2019.

Jihadi discussions about drones on social media, websites, and forums include topics such as: planning attacks on U.S. drone bases, hacking drones, modifying commercially available drones, building homemade drones, and developing methods to disrupt and down Western and rival jihadi groups’ drones, and more.

The commercial drones used by Islamic State have weighed about 50 pounds or less. In addition to using drones with full-motion video to look for attack opportunities and to monitor Iraqi Security Forces, the pilotless aircraft are being used to provide target information for vehicles carrying suicide bombs.

In October 2014 the leading English-language ISIS disseminator Twitter account ShamiWitness tweeted a link to a PDF file titled “The Beginner’s Guide to Multicopters,” which provides instruction on how to build entry-level multi-rotor drones.

In 2016, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Uyghur anti-China jihadi group Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) released videos documenting the group’s assault on grain silos northwest of Hama, in Syria, footage for recon and documentation of the battle, and remote-controlled car bombs. One video featured drone footage showing a suicide attack carried out by a TIP fighter against enemy forces in an apartment complex that killed “40 Iranians.”

In 2016, a pro-Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Telegram channel posted a list of 17 suggestions for lone-wolf attacks during the upcoming 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The post suggested attacks attaching small explosives to toy drones,

Boko Haram, which is active in Nigeria and nearby countries, used drones in its  attacks against the security forces, and “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula” (AQAP) supporters used the internet to call on the group to carry out similar attacks as the one targeting the Saudi Arabian oil facilities in September 2019.^[7]

See some of the captured arsenal of ISIS manufactured drones, both weaponized and non-weaponized, used against Iraqi enemy forces.[8]

 

Shia and pro-Iranian jihadists[9]

In December 2009, the Iran-backed Iraqi militants had hacked into video feeds of American Predator and Shadow drones and passed what they found on to Hezbollah. This was a precedent for Iran’s provision of drones and drone technology to Hezbollah for use in Syria and to the Shi’ite Houthi rebels in Yemen.

In a March 2017, Hashem Al-Mousawi, spokesman for the Iran-backed Iraqi Shi’ite militia Al-Nujaba, highlighted the militia’s activities in Iraq and Syria. Published images show that the militia is operating Iranian drones.

“We are working day and night to develop drones that can be put together in a living room,” said Abu Alaa al-Walai, the leader of Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, an Iranian-controlled Shiite militia in Iraq.[10]

Hezbollah

Iran reportedly provided the Hezbollah  with drone components and taught its militants how to fly UAVs remotely. Hezbollah initially used its UAVs exclusively to spy on and attack Israel. But Hezbollah expanded its drone operations into Syria when it joined the civil war on the side of President Bashar al Assad in 2012.

Hezbollah’s first flight of an unmanned aerial vehicle into Israeli airspace (a Mirsad-1 drone, an updated version of the early Iranian Mohajer drone) for reconnaissance purposes occurred in November 2004. It hovered over the Western Galilee town of Nahariya for about 20 minutes and then returned to Lebanon before the Israeli air force could intercept it.[11]

Hezbollah launched in August 2006, during the Second Lebanon War, three small Ababil drones into Israel each carrying a 40-50-kilogram explosive warhead intended for bombing strategic targets. This time Israeli F-16s shot them down, one on the outskirts of Haifa.

The next appearance of a Hezbollah drone on October 6, 2012, was a foray that took Israel by surprise. An Iranian drone called “Ayub” flew south from Lebanon over the Mediterranean and into Israel via the Gaza Strip, moving westward about 35 miles into the Negev and penetrating to a point near the town of Dimona, the site of Israel’s nuclear complex. There it was shot down over a forest by Israeli aircraft.

A video released in August 2016 by a Hezbollah-affiliated media outlet appeared to confirm that Hezbollah is using attack drones dropping Chinese-made MZD-2 cluster bombs on three Syrian rebel positions outside Aleppo, in support of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Hezbollah has claimed to have this capacity since September 2014.

Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Hamas’s drone program has existed since 2012, but the Gaza-based militants have one of the smaller and less advanced arsenals compared with Iran’s other proxies. Its drones have been constructed using local materials. Hamas has used its drones to surveil Israeli sites; it launched kamikaze-style drone attacks on Israel in 2014, 2018, 2019 and 2021.[12]

The Hamas drone program faced two major setbacks. The first was an Israeli airstrike that hit eight Hamas drone storage facilities. The second setback was the assassination of Mohammed Zawahri, a leading Hamas drone engineer, in December in Tunisia. Hamas blamed Israel for the attack and acknowledged that Zawahri had designed drones for its military wing, the Al Qassam Brigades.

After the 2014 Israeli Operation Protective Edge in Gaza, Hamas established an air unit to operate spy drones. In May 2018, it launched at least three drones carrying explosives toward Israel: one landed in the Negev and two landed in the front lawn of a house near the Gaza border. in 2019, Hamas launched at least four separate drone attacks against Israel.

In May 2021, during the latest conflict with Israel, Hamas unveiled a new suicide drone, the Shehab, similar to the Iranian Ababil-T drone although smaller in wingspan. It can hover near its target and explode near it or on impact. It was the “first instance of a precision-guided munition in Gaza,” said Fabian Hinz, an arms expert. In a propaganda video, Hamas displayed at least four Shehab drones.[13]

A Shehab suicide drone unveiled by Hamas in May 2021

During the May 2021 Operation Guardian of the Walls, an Israeli F-16 fighter jet with a Python-5 air-to-air missile downed one Hamas drone, and an Iron Dome system intercepted another, a first for the platform. In total, Israel has intercepted all six Hamas fired drones, using multiple countermeasures including “classified means”.[14]

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group released in May 2019 footage purporting to show a drone controlled by its operatives dropping improvised incendiary bombs on an Israel Defense Forces tank stationed on the border with Israel. The footage is filmed from a camera mounted to the drone as well as a long-range lens on the ground in Gaza filming the tank. The tank appears unscathed by the relatively small blasts.[15]

In April 2019, Israel announced that it had foiled an attempt to smuggle 172 mailed packages containing military equipment, including commercial drones, into the Gaza Strip via the Erez Crossing from Israel.

The threat of CBW attacks with drones

Over 25 years ago, the Japanese terror group/cult Aum Shinrikyo considered using drones to distribute sarin gas against civilian populations.

EU Security Commissioner Julian King warned in August 2019, that “drones are becoming more and more powerful and smarter, which makes them more and more attractive for hostile acts.” According to Germany’s die Welt—which published King’s comments—in December 2018, France’s Anti-Terrorism Unit (UCLAT) issued a “secret report” for the country’s Special Committee on Terrorism which warned of “a possible terrorist attack on a football stadium by means of an unmanned drone that could be equipped with biological warfare agents.”[16]

In 2017, Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union’s counterterrorism coordinator, warned that homegrown jihadis could use drones in Europe to drop biological weapons on crowded public spaces. “Someone could process a virus in a cloud lab, take a drone and use a GPS geolocation system to steer the drone, and go to a football stadium to spread the virus created and kill 50,000 people. So, my point is that we need to properly assess every possible threat that these new disruptive techs might pose.”[17]

Conclusion

Small drone attacks on critical infrastructure and personnel from Lebanon to Yemen have demonstrated how conventional air defenses, built to intercept high speed missiles or identify other airborne threats such as aircraft, are incapable of detecting smaller intruders.

Although most of the known incidents and attacks took place outside Europe, it seems that most of the drones used by the Sunni jihadist organizations were bought on the open market by the existing network of jihadists in the West.

Moreover, the members of jihadist groups and supporters were instructed how to purchase, to improve or even construct such drones by themselves and “lone-wolves” were encouraged to used them against civil targets in the Western countries.

Therefore, it can be evaluated that part of this knowledge is already in the hands of jihadist individuals and the videos disseminated in the past by the various organizations give motivation for their emulation in the urban environment in Europe. This threat is enhanced by some of the foreign fighters returnees to Europe and elsewhere, who possibly were involved on the ground in Syria, Iraq, or Libya in drone operations.

The situation is different concerning the Shia pro-Iranian organizations, the ones which have the advantage of being supported by a rogue regime using indiscriminate terrorism worldwide and very much involved in developing drone technologies. The Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ, and the Houthis are already active actors in this field, for the moment only on the battlegrounds in the Middle East.

[1] Craig Whitlock and Barton Gellman, “U.S. documents detail al-Qaeda’s efforts to fight back against drones,” The Washington Post, September 3, 2013

[2]  Thomas Braun and edited by Alexander Fleiss, “Miniature Menace: The Threat of Weaponized Drone Use by Violent Non-state Actors,” Wild Blue Yonder Online Journal, Official United States Air Force Website, September 14, 2020, at https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Wild-Blue-Yonder/Article-Display/Article/2344151/miniature-menace-the-threat-of-weaponized-drone-use-by-violent-non-state-actors/

[3]  Adiv Sterman, “Hezbollah Drones Wreak Havoc on Syrian Rebel Bases.” The Times of Israel, 21 Sept. 2014, www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-drones-wreak-havoc-on-syrian-rebel-bases.

[4]  Thomas Braun and Alexander Fleiss, Miniature Menace.

[5]  Ibid.

[6] Steven Stalinsky and R. Sosnow, “A Decade Of Jihadi Organizations’ Use Of Drones – From Early Experiments By Hizbullah, Hamas, And Al-Qaeda To Emerging National Security Crisis For The West As ISIS Launches First Attack Drones,” Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 1300, MEMRI, February 21, 2017,  https://www.memri.org/reports/decade-jihadi-organizations-use-drones-%E2%80%93-early-experiments-hizbullah-hamas-and-al-qaeda#

[7]  Review and Prospects of Internal and External Situations, Public Security Intelligence Agency Report, Japan, January 2020, p. 44.

[8]  Anne Speckhard and Ardian Shajkovc, “Terrorists’ Use of Drones Promises to Extend Beyond Caliphate Battles,” Homeland Security Today, March 5, 2019, at   ihttps://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/counterterrorism/terrorists-use-of-drones-promises-to-extend-beyond-caliphate-battles/

[9]  Steven Stalinsky and R. Sosnow, A Decade of Jihadi Organizations’ Use of Drones.

[10] Paul Iddon, “Experts: Radicals May Soon Be Able to Use Drones for Terrorist Attacks on the West,” European Eye on Radicalization, April 10, 2020, at https://eeradicalization.com/experts-radicals-may-soon-be-able-to-use-drones-for-terrorist-attacks-on-the-west/

[11] Milton Hoenig, “Hezbollah and the Use of Drones as a Weapon of Terrorism,” FAS Public Interest Report, Spring 2014, Vol. 67, No. 2.

[12]  Andrew Hanna, “Iran’s Drone Transfers to Proxies,” The Iran Primer, United States Institute for Peace, June 30, 2021.

[13]  Ibid.

[14]  Seth J. Frantzman, “Iron Dome intercepts drone during combat for first time, says Israeli military,” DefenseNews, May 17, 2021.

[15]  “Islamic Jihad releases footage claiming to be drone attack on IDF tank,” Times of Israel, May 30, 2019.

[16]  Zak Doffman, “Warning Over Terrorist Attacks Using Drones Given by EU Security Chief, Forbes, August 9, 2019.

[17] “A View From the CT Foxhole: Gilles de Kerchove, European Union (EU) Counter-Terrorism Coordinator,” CTC Sentinel, August 2020, Vol. 13, ISSUE 8.

In a large pluralist country like India, the pursuit of essential policy reforms often gets mired in controversies that can derail or push back the proposed measures. Political and other compulsions of various parties and vested interest groups make such reforms and measures convenient issues for whipping up passions to further their own interests, even if the same is detrimental to the national cause.

Since independence, building communication infrastructure in our border areas has been held hostage to the actions of groups which have opposed such development, ostensibly on grounds of preserving the ecology. Why both activities cannot be carried out simultaneously is conveniently glossed over. Such groups have also hindered development of our island territories. It is only now, during the past six to seven years,

that a concerted push has been given to infrastructure development in our border regions, but making up for the neglect of decades remains a huge challenge.

Reforms in the defence sector have also been tardy, largely due to resistance from certain groups who have a vested interest in continuation of the status quo. Two landmark reforms which have finally seen the light of day are the creation of the post of Chief of Defence Staff and more recently, the corporatisation of the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB). Defence production has also now been opened to the private sector and defence items opened up for exports. Had such action been taken earlier, India’s dependency on foreign equipment would have been far less today.

Certain landmark reforms of the government like the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), 2019 and the new Farm Acts that were enacted in 2020, were historic and long overdue. Yet, we have seen significant opposition to these, with anti CAA protests in Delhi blocking traffic for months on end and the anti-Farm Act protests, which are still

ongoing, witnessing protesters at the outskirts of Delhi, who refuse to budge from the protest sites. The challenge of implementing well intentioned reforms are indeed immense, and legislation will no longer be enough to enable the desired changes to be executed on the ground. It will have to be accompanied by a strong narrative, well before such legislations are introduced, so that public opinion is firmly behind the changes and the opposition to it would invite consequences when elections are held.

It reflects poorly on India’s polity that even when India is fighting a pandemic, there are groups which are instilling fears about the vaccine’s which are being produced in India and creating a phobia that is causing vaccine hesitancy in some quarters. While such fears have been largely allayed by the government’s proactive approach, the lessons for the future are stark and can be ignored only at our peril. The need to build the right narrative, debate it in public platforms and ensure its wide acceptance is how we need to move in future. When the country moves to a Uniform Civil Code and to nuanced population control measures, it would be vital to have a narrative that has been

debated and accepted across the board, to avoid any fissures in its implementation.

Author Brief Bio: Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation

Introduction

The Covid-19 pandemic, which spread across the world since the beginning of 2020, had its origin in the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which originated from the city of Wuhan, the capital of the Hubei Province in Central China. Coronaviruses are a family of contagious viruses that can cause a range of mild to severe respiratory illnesses. A mutation of corona virus resulted in the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was detected and identified in China in December 2019. The disease was named Covid-19, Covid being a shortened name for Corona Virus Disease and 19 reflecting the year of detection.

Much of the misery of the world could have been avoided had the Chinese government been upfront with the outbreak, but there was a massive cover up, which strangely, was glossed over by the WHO. The first official confirmation for Covid-19 came on 31 December 2019, when the WHO China Country Office was informed about a cluster of 27 pneumonia cases of unknown etiology, detected in Wuhan.^[1] The Chinese claimed that the outbreak originated from live bats, sold in a seafood market in Wuhan. This version has very few takers today, and the possibility that the virus came from a leak in the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) is gaining increasing salience.

The WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, while addressing a media gathering in Geneva on 11 March 2020, said that the WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and was deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity of the disease. He then said that “We have therefore made the assessment that Covid-19 can be characterised as a pandemic.”^[2] By this time, however, the disease had spread to much of the world, raising questions about why the WHO delayed such an important announcement, with some alleging that the WHO was deliberately covering up for the Chinese.

The Lab Leak Theory

While China and the WHO were propagating the theory that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a sea food market in Wuhan, a group of researchers from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi, in February 2020, published a paper to the contrary. Their report was based on finding four unique inserts in the virus, which were unlikely to be accidental in nature.^[3] For the first time, a view stating that the virus did not originate from a sea food market, but likely had its origin in a laboratory was expressed. Their work provided a new insight into the evolution and pathogenicity of the virus, with important implications for diagnosis, but strangely, their work was trashed by virologists, and they were forced to withdraw their paper. Today, evidence is increasingly mounting to indicate that the virus originated from a laboratory. Dozens of samples from the earliest Wuhan patients in China have been deleted by China, which, as per an American professor who spotted their deletion, and who recovered and analysed 13 files, found viruses which were much more evolved than would be expected of a new pathogen.^[4] Obviously, a massive cover up by China has taken place, considering how data, which was earlier available in the web, now stands deleted. A group calling itself D.R.A.S.T.I.C. (Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating COVID-19), a collection of people from across the globe, have done yeoman work in this regard, to disprove the theory that the virus originated from a seafood market in Wuhan. Their work suggests that the virus likely escaped by accident or design from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.^[5] The cover up by the Chinese government is perhaps an attempt to avoid world censure and to obviate being held liable for paying the cost of vaccinating the world along with other punitive damages.

The First Wave

The first wave of Covid-19 hit India after it had already impacted countries in Europe and other parts of the world. It was fortuitous that the Indian Prime Minister took the onus on himself to sensitise the Indian public on the impact of the virus and what action the public needed to take to reduce the impact of the pandemic. This was essential as very little was known about the virus and the spread of the disease. A countrywide lockdown was imposed for three weeks from 25 March to 14 April 2020, which was later extended up to 03 May, then further extended to 17 May and finally to 31 May before the restrictions across the country were gradually lifted. The impact of closing down the whole country had a severe economic fallout, with the economy shrinking by 7.3%,^[6] but in hindsight was the correct decision as it limited the spread of the disease. India’s health infrastructure, as indeed the rest of the world’s too, was not geared to take on a pandemic and even basic items like face masks and sanitisers were not available in the quantity required. More importantly, it gave the people of India time to adjust to a new normal and for the states to gear up their medical infrastructure requirements for dealing with the pandemic.

Another decision with far reaching ramifications was the emphasis laid by the government on developing a vaccine against Covid-19. The early impetus given to the development of the vaccine, which was personally monitored by the Prime Minister himself, was indeed very far sighted as India now is in a position to not only cater for its own needs, but to also assist other countries across the globe.

The First Wave of Covid-19 peaked in mid-September 2020, with the seven-day average of new infections receding thereafter from a high of 93,617 new cases (See Figure 1). Thereafter, the drop in cases was gradual till the end of the year, with different states showing variable levels of control over the pandemic. The downward trend continued till 15 February, which recorded a case load of 9139 new infections. The infections started increasing thereafter, with 28 February recording 15616 new infections, which increased to 24,437 new infections on 15 March and to 72,182 new infections on 31 March.^[7] Clearly, the first wave was over and the second wave had begun.

The Second Wave

In the first quarter of 2021, there was a general feeling which permeated the medical community and the corridors of power, both in Delhi and in the state capitals, that India had got the better of the virus. While Europe was hit by a second wave, which was far more virulent than the first, there was a presumption that India would not be similarly impacted. Over the previous year, a lot of experience had also been gained about the spread and control of the virus, which perhaps had induced a sense of complacency in the public. This complacency was aggravated by a few factors, all of which were to play a role in the massive outbreak that was to follow.

The farmers agitation for repeal of the farm laws, which began in the last quarter of 2020, was continuing despite the pandemic. Thousands of farmers, mostly from Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh, remained camped around three border points of Delhi—Singhu, Tikri and Ghazipur—demanding a repeal of the farm laws enacted by the Centre in September 2020. While hearing a petition on the subject, the Apex Court said that public roads should not be blocked, come what may, in an indirect reference to the farmers protest,^[8] but this has had little impact on the protesters, who remain camped there till date.

The Kumbh Mela, an annual event, witnessed over 9 million pilgrims take the holy dip in the Ganga between January 14 to April 27. Of this, about six million pilgrims congregated in Haridwar in the month of April, which coincided with the worst surge in the second wave of the pandemic.^[9] While the state had mandated all protocols to be followed to obviate the spread of Covid-19, the sheer numbers involved made all such efforts a practical impossibility. Restricting, or perhaps even imposing a ban on the sacred event for the year would have been the right option to prevent the spread of the pandemic, but it was a decision which was difficult to take politically, especially since no such ban was placed for the farmers agitation!

Alongside the above, elections to the state assemblies of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry were due and the Election Commission had set the dates for polling, which was to be carried out in phases from 27 March to 29 April. No curbs were placed on rallies as curbs had not been placed earlier on the Kumbh Mela nor on the farmers agitation. A more pragmatic decision, considering the way the pandemic was spreading, was to have postponed the polls and placed the states under President’s Rule, but a decision of that nature would have created huge political turmoil. In the event, India witnessed a huge surge in Covid-19 cases, though the surge cannot be attributed solely to the above spreader events.

Fundamentally, the surge took place because the data was not correctly analysed and actioned. The country was living in a false sense of euphoria, which a simple analysis of data would have punctured. This perhaps was the prime reason for the pandemic assuming deadly proportions. On 01 April, India registered 81,441 new cases of Covid 19, which should have been a wake up call for all the bureaucrats posted in the health ministry of the Centre and the States. The whole of March had seen a constant doubling of cases every ten days, nearing the peak of the first wave and there was nothing to indicate that the trend was reversing. This was the time to have imposed a lockdown across the country, or at least in all the severely impacted states. Not doing so resulted in the number of new cases doubling in 10 days to 1,69,914 on 11 April, then doubling again to 3,15,802 fresh cases on 21 April, till they finally peaked at 4,14,433 cases on 6 May. India’s success story in dealing with the pandemic in the first wave had tragically been reversed, which in turn overstretched the health infrastructure. Oxygen became a short supply item, beds in hospital with ventilators were not available and people were left to fend for themselves on their own. This was an avoidable tragedy.

It would be wrong, however, to blame the surge entirely on the farmers agitation, the Kumbh Mela and the elections, though undoubtedly these events added on to the sickness tally. The top six states with the highest number of Covid-19 cases on 01 June 2021 were Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Odisha (Figure 2). Of these, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Odisha did not have elections and were not affected either by the farmers agitation or by the Kumbh Mela. 20 days later, on 20 June 2021, the top six states, in terms of total number of Covid-19 cases were Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha (Figure 3).

FIGURE 2

SIX STATES WITH 70% OF COVID-19 CASES

 

FIGURE 3

SIX STATES WITH 76 % OF COVID-19 CASES

Ultimately, the prime causative factor for a surge in cases had much to with public apathy, lack of monitoring of the data on daily fresh cases of Covid-19 by the health authorities, both in the States and in the Centre, and in not heeding the warning signals that had come from other parts of the globe, where the second wave had caused huge damage. An unescapable conclusion is that the bureaucrats in the health ministry, both in the Centre and in the States, were culpable in not discharging their mandated functions.

It is also instructive to observe how different states have handled the pandemic. To carry out an assessment based on uniform parameters, the number of active Covid-19 cases per million population base, has been taken. The data has been taken from two time lines—01 June 2020 and 20 June 2020, each time line giving out the number of active Covid-19 cases in each state, per million population. Statistics are a more reliable indicator than gut instincts which are based on individual biases. Looking at the data of 01 June 2020, the top eight performing states in the battle against the pandemic, with the least number of Covid-19 active cases, were Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana, in that order, with the total active cases for that date per million population, being 128, 156, 227, 269, 503, 517, 581 and 652 respectively (Figure 3). The bottom eight states, with the maximum number of active cases per million population for 01 June 2021 (shown in brackets), indicating poor control over the pandemic are Kerala (5758), Sikkim (5744), Karnataka (4594), Tamil Nadu (3844), Goa (3268), Manipur (2747) Mizoram (2516) and Uttarakhand (2487) (Figure 4).

FIGURE 4

COVID-19 CASES IN STATES OF INDIA

(Per million population base

A change observed 20 days later, on 20 June 2020, indicates the eight states with the lowest Covid-19 rates per million population base, as Uttar Pradesh (19), Bihar (25), Madhya Pradesh (25), Rajasthan (37), Jharkhand (40), Haryana (87), Gujarat (95). and Delhi (110). It would be observed that these were the top eight performing states in terms of minimum number of active Covid-19 cases on 01 June, and 20 days later, they remained in the top eight, with a further dramatic reduction of active cases.

On 20 June, the eight states at the bottom of the list were Sikkim (3853), Manipur (3004), Kerala (2943), Mizoram (2777), Goa (2042), Karnataka (1857), Arunachal Pradesh (1582) and Meghalaya (1349). Tamil Nadu, which was part of the bottom eight, had a distinct reduction in the number of active cases during these twenty days, from a whopping 3,844 cases per million to just 884 cases per million.

What is of concern though, are the states which have not been able to register a drop in cases in these 20 days. Andhra Pradesh, which had 37,044 active cases on 01 June, saw a further surge, with the state recording 63,068 active cases on 20 June. Similarly, Mizoram saw a marginal increase in the total number of active cases from 3145 to 3471 and Manipur saw an increase of cases from 8791 to 9613. In all other cases, there has been a decline, though the percentage of decline varies from state to state (Figure 5).  The data for Union Territories of India, is shown in Figure 6.

FIGURE 5

PERFORMANCE OF STATES IN CONTROLLING THE VIRUS

FIGURE 6

PERFORMANCE OF UNION TERRITORIES

(Cases per million population)

Preparing for the Third Wave

With the Second Wave having peaked in India, there are indications that the country will be impacted by the Third Wave, with some experts opining that this could take place in the next 12 to 16 weeks.^[10] More importantly, it is likely that the virus may become a permanent fixture of our lives and we would have to deal with it. Speaking on this issue, WHO Emergencies Director, Dr Mike Ryan, stated in a press briefing in Geneva on 14 May 2020 that… “this virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and may never go away.” Dr Ryan then added that “we have to come to terms with the virus, just as we have come to terms with diseases like HIV”.^[11]

To deal with the pandemic, Dr Randeep Guleria, Director, All India Institute Of Medical Science (AIIMS), New Delhi, spoke of the need to strengthen the public health system, and focus on the lessons we have learnt from the past. He stressed on the need to upgrade the health system, and asserted that with changing times, we have to change our public health system, through initiatives like the Ayushman Bharat-PMJAY (Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana), which have made a huge difference as far as health care is concerned.^[12]

The need for the Centre and the States to work in unison on issues of health is now becoming paramount, to enable uniformity of policies and protocols, provision of equitable facilities to all sections of society and to fight jointly against pandemics. As of now, health is a subject on the State List in the Indian Constitution. To deal with the challenges in providing robust and efficient health care across the country and to enable more effective handling of pandemics, the time has come to place Health on the Concurrent List of the Constitution. The States would have to be taken on board before a Constitutional Amendment is mooted, but this is a matter which needs to be addressed at the earliest.

Vaccinating the Nation

Vaccination would perhaps form the backbone of the anti-Covid strategy. On the first day of the Centre’s new Covid-19 vaccination policy, on 21 June, a total of 88.09 lakh people were vaccinated.^[13] This was unprecedented and a mention of this was also made by the prime Minister in his “Mann Ki Baat” programme on All India Radio, on 27 June. With this, India’s cumulative COVID-19 vaccination coverage is now over 28 crore.^[14] In an affidavit filed before the Supreme Court, the Centre has stated that 135 crore doses of COVID-19 vaccines will be available in India between August to December 2021 from five Covid-19 vaccines.^[15] This would enable vaccination of the majority of the country by the end of the year. The challenge to vaccinate the children will however remain, till a suitable vaccine for children of all ages is developed.

Responsibility of Individuals and Society

The fight against the pandemic is by no means over and without the cooperation of the public, it cannot be won. The public has been sensitised on the need to maintain social distancing, washing hands, using face masks etc, but enforcement measures are still lax. There is a need to strengthen the institutional framework to ensure compliance of health safety measures. Merely getting vaccinated is not enough. Each individual is responsible to ensure appropriate conduct and to abide by the restrictions laid down, to prevent and restrict the spread of the pandemic.

An important aspect for individuals, besides personal hygiene and wearing of masks in public spaces is being cognisant of the action to be taken if one contracts the disease. Early detection assumes great importance as that will enable the safe treatment of the disease in home isolation. Cases which have been detected soon after occurrence will rarely require hospitalisation or oxygen and ventilator support. A simple means of early detection is through a check of body temperature once a day with a thermometer. This can be a life saver as other symptoms may take a few days to develop, by which time the disease can take on a more sinister form. If the thermometer shows an above normal body temperature, it would be prudent to check for the virus, the results for which can be made available within a day. A daily temperature check should hence form part of preventive measures in each family. Thereafter, should the test for the virus be positive, then immediate medical assistance should be sought, which can be safely done in home isolation.

Within groups, it is important to create an environment where Covid protocols are followed and their breach is frowned upon. Help groups need to be formed to assist those who are old and who are living without family support. Health workers and the medical staff need to be given the full unstinting support of individuals and groups, as they form the spearhead of the fight against the pandemic.

Action by the State

Each state government must get its act together and be prepared to combat the third wave of the disease. The states have time now to rectify the shortcomings observed in tackling the second wave, and they must do so on a war footing. They cannot abdicate their role and pass the buck to the Centre when things get difficult for them.

Data analysis at the national, state, and lower levels must be done by the respective officials responsible for health, both in the Centre and the States. The Centre must lay down a policy for declaring various stages of health emergencies, from Stage 1, which would be cautionary, to Stage 5 which would require maximum restrictions. This should be based on the number of Covid cases occurring in a state, for a population base of 100,000. The data of individuals impacted with the pandemic must be kept at the district, state and national level, to ensure coverage at the lowest level, and enable prompt action to be taken to isolate the areas that are impacted. The advantage of such a system is that the concerned health officials and the political authority would be forced to take action as the cases in a state, district, tehsil or village level start rising. Failure to do so would imply abdication of duty, for which concerned individuals would be held accountable.

Role of the Media and Political Parties

Both the media and the political parties have an important role to play in dealing with the pandemic. For the media, it is important that sensationalism is avoided as it creates unnecessary fear and panic in society. It is also the job of the media to keep a track of Covid cases and to highlight those areas where the officials responsible for health are falling short of performing their duties.

The Political parties also need to fight the pandemic as one and not resort to unnecessary mudslinging at each other. The fight against the pandemic must be taken as a national priority, and not for political one-upmanship. For a period of one year, if not more, there is a need to ban all political gatherings above 50 people, and to similarly restrict all religious and social events, as also prohibit any strikes or dharnas. This would require all political parties coming together and lending their support on this issue, if it is to become a reality. Through such action, the pandemic can be controlled in a faster time frame.

Conclusion

India is passing through a critical phase in its history, being impacted with a pandemic, while facing huge challenges on the security front from two inimical neighbours and at the same time, having to deal with a severe economic and human crisis. This is a time for unity and putting our differences aside. History will judge us whether we, as a society, were wise enough to rise to the occasion.

References:

^[1] World Health Organization. Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Situation Report – 1. 2020. Available from: https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/330760. (The report is no longer available on the internet).

^[2] https://indianexpress.com/article/world/who-coronavirus-pandemic-6309685/

^[3] https://in.news.yahoo.com/researchers-iit-delhi-found-covid-055459485.html

^[4] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9716531/More-proof-support-lab-leak-theory-China-DELETED-samples-earliest-patients.html

^[5] The details of the work done by this group are available in their website https://drasticresearch.org/the-team/

^[6] https://www.livemint.com/economy/gdp-shrinks-7-3-in-fy21-on-covid-first-wave-impact-11622463848438.html

^[7] Data for the month culled from Worldometer, available at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

^[8] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/farmer-protest-roads-should-not-be-blocked-say-supreme-court-2410018

^[9] https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/dehradun-news/91-million-thronged-mahakumbh-despite-covid-19-surge-govt-data-101619729096750.html

^[10] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57577138

^[11] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52643682

^[12] https://www.india.com/news/india/aiims-director-randeep-guleria-warning-third-wave-of-covid-delta-plus-variant-covid-19-cases-in-india-4773880/

^[13] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-vaccinates-record-52-lakh-people-in-one-day-2468935

^[14] Ibid

^[15] https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/video/only-135-crore-vaccines-to-be-available-by-december-says-centre-1820036-2021-06-27

Introduction

Naturally occurring novel virus Covid-19 has recognised that human and health security is no longer synonymous with just health sciences. The conception, promotion and care of life (bios) demands an expanded umbrella of health sciences to evolve and institutionalise bio-governance, bio-politics and bio-power, encompassing all domains which potentially bio-marginalise (prevent life to flourish) the human security and well-being. The realm of health security constitutes all endangering factors like natural disasters, outbreaks, pandemics, emerging infectious diseases (EID), misuse of antibiotics leading to unpredictable microbial resistances, critical pharmaceutical, medical supply chain safety, medical and health information cyber-biosecurity, bio-terrorism, climate change, rapid urbanisation, population growth, food security, water security, and social media (SM) misinformation etc, which actively modulate the wellness and health of human populations. A country that blooms and flies high with a vibrant democracy, should have a smart-public health system that provides an ecosystem for its beings to evolve their lives to full potential.

A live, vibrant, ever evolving, flexible, resilient, participatory, engaging public health system must have the well-being of its citizens at its core—a system melting boundaries between different stakeholders, dissolving the idea of segmented hierarchical health system with defined and restricted boundaries at various levels. The boundaries in the health system collage, of participatory responsibilities and accountabilities of all the stakeholders need to dissolve to develop one aesthetic scenery where all merges and gels well with each other at every level of coordination, management and governance. The New India leadership can evolve and embrace this idea of fit, smart and healthy public health systems in India which will take health, wellbeing, and happiness index of nation to the next level. The idea of New India is now to build systems that are lively and which co-evolve with evolving human lives and develop on opportunities instead of breaking at challenges.

This article unfolds various domains with suggestions which may be discussed to develop a futuristic, holistic, comprehensive and integrated public health ecosystem in India. It has suggested a Neuron Model for Public Health Emergency. The author hopes to energise readers to become more aware, active and participatory on issues related to human and health security at local, regional, national, international and global level.

Health first approach

Nation’s well-being must be measured by health (physical, mental and social) of its population, quality of its healthcare policy and programmes, availability of health facilities and qualified and motivated healthcare workforce. Recent epidemic shows the dependency of economic growth and geopolitical status of any country critically on healthcare supremacy. For futuristic nations, health security is one of topmost priority. Health first approach calls for prioritisation of   health care structure of any country for present challenges and future risks that incorporates institutionalised comprehensive health policies, scaling up of health care resources, intensive biomedical research, sustainable policies and efficient coordination between stakeholders, with high sense of national priority and commitment.

Establishment of National Institute for Global Health Science and Security:

The institute will conduct courses and research to understand the evolving national and global health challenges.  The institute will work in collaboration with the Indian government, international health, agriculture and defence ministries and organisations to collaborate for preparedness for national and transnational disease threats, and develop economic benefits, international security and diplomacy by promoting health research, technologies and services. It will translate research into knowledge products, providing policy analysis and technical support related to the National Health Security, develop research and training for foreign affairs experts on health and research required in global health diplomacy, develop education and training materials for multi-sectoral engagement in the response to biological threats for military and health professionals etc. Courses on global health diplomacy, global health security, emerging infectious diseases, public health management, disease surveillance, bio-safety and biosecurity etc. can be institutionalised as can diploma training in medical and paramedical sciences for developing the human resource and assistance required in rural and primary health care.

Defence Establishment and Participation in Health Security to improve National Capabilities to Prevent, Detect and Respond to Infectious Disease Threats

India’s defence and national security strategy is primarily focused on territorial and border disputes, countering and combating left wing extremism (LWE), insurgency in the North Eastern States and security and stability in Jammu and Kashmir. The non-traditional security threats like pandemics, emerging infectious diseases, and proliferation of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and high yield Explosives (CBRNE) weapons have to yet find a place in India’s national security strategy, planning and response. Threat of bio-incidents both naturally occurring and manufactured epidemics through the use biological weapon are equally evolving and alarming. Currently, without defined guidelines and protocols on how to address bio-incidents, the counter response and activities rely on ad-hoc responses of questionable utility. The structural and functional gaps between health security, bio-security and bio-defence has caused a damage to human security as we are not able to efficiently harness and incorporate the scientific capabilities, technological innovations for governance and policies related to bio-incidents. India needs to develop a National Biological Security Strategy (NBSS)^[1] and National Health Security Act^[2] and integrate both in India’s National Security Strategy (NSS) for a comprehensive, holistic biological-socio-economic security approach which addresses threats emanating from both traditional (or military) and non-traditional (or non-military) sources. Post COVID-19, the role of military in national, international and global health security activities can be extended with more extensive networks of bio-intelligence and bio-surveillance, improving the national capabilities to prevent, detect, and respond to natural and simulated bio-incidents.

Establishing a Strict Bio-risk Assessment and Management Guidelines in Health, Veterinary and Agriculture Research to be Complied by all Stakeholders

Bio-safety involves procedures and techniques to prevent an accidental release of bio-agent; biosecurity involves accountability measures and procedures to protect bio-agents from unauthorised access, misuse, thievery for an intentional release. Dual use research that aims to provide knowledge for health security could be misapplied to threaten safety of health, agricultural crops, live stocks and the environment. Without proper guidance, biosafety, biosecurity, and dual use research can become a risk to human life. Life sciences, molecular biology, bio-technology, bio-engineering, genetic engineering, bio-informatics and synthetic biology researches and tools have become common methods in research laboratories^[3]. DIY-bio (Do it Yourself Biology), emerging bio-technology program and bio-technology start up are expected to develop futuristic technologies and therapies, but at the same time potential risks of these technologies need to be minimised. Genetically Modified Organisms, gene therapy, induced-Pluripotent Stem Cell (iPS), Gain of Function (GoF) and CRISPR (clusters of regularly interspersed short palindromic repeats) will be star technologies in future providing therapeutic solutions. Futuristic vision of public-health research involves nurturing responsible future generation scientists and developing an effective bio-risk assessment and management guidelines to be complied by all the engaged stakeholders.

Developing Decentralised and Participatory Public Health

Neighbourhood Health Clinics (NCs) should be led by community leaders to complement and micromanage the activities of central-state-district health initiatives^[4]. A shift in health governance and policy is required for higher level of micro and higher levels of governance in cities and villages. The local parliament of elected leaders and network of mini health centres at municipality, city council and gram panchayat level will provide a voice and platform for elected leaders, who are often excluded from high-level decision-making to bolster local health capacities. Strong city and village leadership and engagement network is a must for resilient strategic preparedness network.

Expanding the role of Civil Society Organisations (CSOs)

Margaret Chan, Director General, WHO in 2007, highlighted the role of CSOs, stating, “Given the growing complexity of these health and security challenges and the response required, these issues concern not only governments, but also international organisations, civil society and the business community. Recognising this, the World Health Organization is making the world more secure by working in close collaboration with all concerned”. Civil Society Organisations include community-based organisations, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), charitable organisations, labor unions, indigenous groups, faith-based organisations, professional associations, and foundations. With their grassroots presence, CSOs can more effectively help to address health security and health systems challenges and help community resource utilisation in healthcare management. India needs to strengthen CSOs which supplement and fill health systems gaps, enabling governments to micromanage the medical emergency like the Covid-19 outbreak. Prepared CSOs will:

• Support with the establishment of local outbreak response teams for coordinating the national response.
• develop local surveillance and response systems to detect, track and manage disease.
• Manage maintenance of safe health care services (e.g., local isolation centre for patients), educate and train on infection control and prevention procedures.
• Support the administration of vaccines, diagnostic and therapeutics.
• MobiliSe and train to build a wide-range of community health workforce
• Generate finances and resources for response efforts through innovative funding mechanisms.

Strengthening Public Institutions in Fighting Zoonotic Infections and Antimicrobial resistance (AMR)

The basics of preventing deadly epidemics and pandemics involves understanding the origin and dynamics of human-pathogen-animal-environment interactions. Recent infectious diseases like Ebola virus disease, influenza H1N1 and Covid-19 are notably linked to animals such as bat and swine. There is a need to implement one health approach i.e a collaborative, multi-sectoral, and trans-disciplinary approach, working at the local, regional, national, and global levels, with the goal of achieving optimal health outcomes recognising the interconnection between people, animals, plants, and their shared environment^[5]. Department of Health Research (DHR) needs to strengthen infrastructure, human resource for health research, research governance, technology development for prevention and management of epidemics/outbreaks. Network of laboratories for surveillance, rapid diagnosis, and effective strategies to neutralise and eventually control and prevent the spread of known/unknown/emerging highly infectious diseases of public & global concern are required. Currently, India has only 2 BSL4 (Bio safety level) facilities—National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune, and National Institute of High Security Animal Diseases (NIHSAD), Bhopal, for research, diagnosis and control of exotic and emerging animal diseases.  Increasing capabilities and re-calibrating the priorities of National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), ICAR-Indian Veterinary Research Institute (IVRI), National Institute of Virology in Pune (NIV) and Defence Research & Development Establishment (DRDE) would help prevent, reduce and prepare with zoonotic infections in the future.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) can become the next pandemic as superbugs (bacteria that are resistant to all known antibiotics) will hinder the fight against the many biological infections with our existing range of antibiotics. Collaborative efforts for prudent use antibiotics, preserving the antibiotics that do work, banning medically important antibiotics in food production (three in four antibiotics consumed worldwide are used in food animals), investing in the development of new antibiotics, new treatments for drug-resistant infections can alleviate the AMR crisis.

Harnessing and Integrating Technology and Innovation in Public Health System: Digital Technologies to Improve PHCs

A virus knows no borders, and neither do the digital technologies and data. The penetration and reach of mobile devices have surpassed other infrastructures like electricity, roads and healthcare resources. Mobile devices and networks are present in resource-limited regions where medical infrastructure, equipment and services are unavailable. Public health systems need to align and integrate digital technologies to build online care pathways that rapidly link the widespread diagnosis with digital symptom checkers, contact tracing, epidemiological intelligence and long term clinical followup. With digitalisation of public health systems and integration of advanced technologies, ethical frameworks and systems for storage and analysis, data protection and confidentiality need to be evolved.

Key examples of digital technologies deployed in public-health interventions for the COVID-19^[6]

• Machine learning used for Web-based epidemic intelligence tools and online syndromic surveillance
• Survey apps and websites used for Symptom reporting
• Data extraction and visualization used for Data dashboards
• Connected diagnostic device used for Point-of-care diagnosis
• Sensors including wearables used for Febrile symptoms checking
• Machine learning used for medical image analysis
• Smartphone app, low-power Bluetooth technology used for Digital contact tracing
• Mobile-phone-location data used for Mobility-pattern analysis
• Social-media platforms used for Targeted communication
• Online search engine used for Prioritised information
• Chat-bot used for Personalised information
• Tele-conferencing used for telemedicine, referral

Further, post Covid-19, technological intervention can revolutionise the efficacy of traditional health care systems. However, affordability and public access of such technological advancement must be regulated. The prominent technological solutions could be classified as below:

• Precision medicines for individual specific treatment methodologies
• Nanotechnology for target specific drug delivery, efficient sensing and imaging, broad spectrum antibiotics and organ regeneration
• Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) for interconnected communication between biomedical machines, vitals monitors and wearable devices with the help of application and IT infrastructure. This will facilitate virtual interaction patients to their physicians and allowing the transfer of medical data over a secure network.
• Big data for management of healthcare data, genomics and pharmacogenomics data to improve decision-making.
• Block Chain for distributed, decentralised and secured database management system that aims to create digital identification, tracking healthcare related object and secure decentralising database.
• 3D Bio-printing for distantly development of surgical implants, tools, orthopaedic and dental implants.
• Drones for remotely onsite distribution of of drugs, vaccines, blood, plasma and healthcare equipment in accident sites and hilly terrains.
• Robotics for assistance remote controlled precision surgeries assisting medical staff patients in diagnostics and maintaining supply chains.
• Mobile health with micro-fluidic Lab-on-a-Chip technology for rapid diagnosis, better patient monitoring, and spatiotemporal tracking capability.
• One Digital Health ecosystem (National health card for National Health Service digital records). One Nation, One Health and One National Health card for a unified digitally transformed health ecosystem. This will help in understanding the intrinsic complexity of hath care and enable development of novel healthcare solutions.

Expanding the role of Community Health Workers (CHWs)

The traditional roles of CHWs includes health education, routine immunisation, supporting maternal and child health, family planning and reproductive health activities, and surveillance, contact tracing for communicable diseases etc. During Covid-19, in an overwhelming, overstretched health system, CHWs shifted the hospital-centred care to community-centred care. Post Covid-19, recalibration of our future efforts to strengthen resilient public health systems and health emergency preparedness involves expanding and supporting CHWs. CHWs and adequately trained Community Health Volunteers (CHVs) and Village Health Volunteers (VHVs) will facilitate health education including promotion of new normal behaviours, measures to prevent and control virus, assist in surveillance, contact tracing and quarantine and maintain essential health services etc. CHWs need to be recognised as an integral part of the primary health care system and local authorities need to ensure that adequate level of training, resources, incentives and support is allocated to sustain the enthusiasm of CHWs^[7].

Transformational leadership willing to pay for public health policies

The effectiveness and performance of a nation’s health system is highly dependent on government leaders as they propose and decide to invest for resources development for public system. Leader’s personality, leadership style, goal alignment, communication skills and team building ability highly influences the public health decisions. Leaders who are future-oriented and who believe in their ability and competence to improve the quality of their society, create more values for future generations and generate more goodwill for society. Reportedly, these leaders tend to invest more in public health to bring well-being and goodwill for their citizens^[8]. In addition, positive perceived social support by citizens moderates and drives futuristic leadership model. The politics of difference lies in futuristic investment in public health and the ideal community trust and support the leader’s policy.

Gender Inclusive Engagement Pattern in Health System Governance

Health system governance should be human-centric and barrier-free, inclusive, non-discriminatory with a tailored and targeted response. The social, economic and long-term health consequences, disproportionately impact the lives of women and girls. Taking lessons from Covid-19 response and related health emergencies, a more fair, inclusive, gendered lens is required for health system governance^[9].

Development of Private Sector and Donor Participation in Healthcare System

An initiative to involve private sectors, individuals, foreign assistance for collaborative grants, aids, loans, etc, must be modelled to strengthen healthcare infrastructure. The challenges posed by emerging health threats in the 21st century requires collaborative network of cooperation. Appropriate generation and mobilisation of resources requires curbing the corruption, misuse and abuse of financial support and assistance in the health sector. India needs to enhance monitoring measures to ensure effective utilisation of finances and collaboration to prepare and respond to future challenges.

Integration of Ayurveda in Health-care Delivery System

Turning Ayurveda into evidence-based medicine could change the medical philosophy and treatment to an inclusive, affordable, individualised and holistic healthcare. Scientific reliability of Ayurveda, education, research, clinical practice, and public health and administration interventions will facilitate integration with existing public health system. This will help promote health, wellness lifestyle, improve disease prevention and increase access and delivery of health services. An integrated model with preventive, curative, and promotive health care strategy will contribute tremendously in community health.

Value Creation through Next-generation Business Model

Post Covid-19, India needs to develop innovative business models with fresh perspective to observe growth and deliver better care for individuals. The integration of innovation in healthcare model, rewiring of organisations for speed and efficiency and to deliver quality care helping both healthcare players and patients will be needed.

Building a Neuron Model for Public Health Emergency

An integrated model for rapid, defined and efficient reception and communication of response signals among stakeholders to prepare and respond to medical health emergencies is shown in the diagram (Figure 1). The global bio-threats are received by receptor agencies like the WHO, the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA), Biological Weapon Convention Implementation Support Unit (BWCISU), Indian embassies, information network in cooperation with foreign intelligence agencies, military intelligence, Intelligence bureau, international intelligence units (Bio-intelligence and Bio-surveillance). The information received is processed and risk-assessed by the National Institute for Global Health Sciences and security (NIGHSS), as proposed in this paper) and the Defense Research Laboratory (DRL, BSL-4 Level, to be developed as proposed in this paper). The information and drafts guideline, according to threat and risk assessment, is received by the central decision command headed by the Prime Minister and which includes as its members, the Defense Minister, Minister of External Affairs, National Security Advisor (NSA), Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), and the three Service Chiefs. The decision made by the central decision command is communicated to President, the three Service Chiefs, Parliamentary Committees, leader of opposition, state governors, cabinet & ministers, planning commission, and regulating agencies to broadcast information to coordinate market for supply, production and distribution of drugs and life support systems efficiently, using big data management system, block chain technology etc.

Receiving the information, the state governments coordinates and functions with district and community stakeholders for delivery of efficient governance, using technologies like Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), telecommunication, block chain technology, e-consultation, drones & robotics etc. The neuronal communication is bidirectional i.e. reception of signal, and delivery of response from top to bottom or bottom to top is as per the stimulus (information) available. All the bio-health data will be collected in mega National Biomedical Database (depository for pathological, pharmacological, genomic, serological toxico genomics data) for efficient tracking and feedback system in the proposed neuron model.

Figure 1: Neuron Model for Public Health Emergency

Conclusion

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”- Charles Dickens.

Covid-19 has expanded the understanding and redefined the scope of public health system and community. During the pandemic, the world embraced a holistic approach of health security, an area which was traditionally seen with myopic vision and scope. The global engagements to ensure public health cooperation, interconnectedness between science, public health, international economics, politics and policy are now understood to be important areas of public health. Hence, the public health apparatus must be equipped with comprehensive and integrated, proactive governance measures which recognise all the dimensions and respond to the evolving health challenges. Post Covid-19, public health systems need to return with a respect and responsibility towards life’s existence with a fully functioning inclusive healthcare system with evolved work processes and strengthened institutions beyond inequalities, and discriminatory hierarchies. The core strength of public health system lies in strengthening traditional aspects of public health such as hygiene, disease detection and prevention measures, screening and immunisation and health promotion in national programme. These strengthened resources and frameworsk like diagnostic centre, surveillance measures and immunisation networks for national programme for preventable diseases like tuberculosis, polio, measles etc can be repurposed for unseen outbreak of infectious diseases.

Coming back stronger, India needs to generate the vision for a lively public healthcare ecosystem which dynamically evolves, adapts, lives, acts and complies to modern society and brings the triumph of the human spirit.

Author Brief Bio: Dr Aakansha Bhawsar is a Scientist at the Division of Basic Medical Sciences, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), Headquarters in New Delhi.

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