Apurv Mishra: There is a view amongst policymakers, academics and business leaders that we are living through what they call a fourth industrial revolution, which is the result of a fusion of several technologies that are blurring the lines between our physical, digital and biological world. Do you agree with this assessment?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: The evolution of technologies from the Industrial Revolution, began with using steam, then moved to electricity, and then to electronics and communication engineering. There was a distinct separation between these technologies. The foundations of the present industrial revolution is off course based on the earlier technologies, but the shift from Industry 3.0 to Industry 4.0 has happened at a much faster rate. The rapidity of change is such that human societies may actually find it difficult to absorb those technologies. There is thus a need to focus not just on specific technologies, but also on their impact on human life, and on how we interact with each other and with the environment around us. Greater awareness is required among the users of this technology so that they are prepared for change. That is why there is a lot of discussion on the impact of industry 4.0 on human societies.

Apurv Mishra: What is your assessment of the disruption that these emerging technologies will bring upon the Indian economy and society, given that we are a developing country that is trying to showcase its leadership in the field of technology.

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: We need to look at the challenges that our country is facing today. One of course is security. Today we talk about not only the physical security at our borders but also cyber security. So, the physical and cyber domains need to be secured. It is also important to take care of our health system in the country. So, can we develop technologies that will make the health systems more affordable and more accessible to our population across the country? In agriculture, water usage is very heavy and consumes nearly 70 percent of the available fresh water. We need to innovate and produce high yield varieties of food grains, with reduced water consumption. Education is another important area, where we face the challenge of how to reach out to young 300 million students and meet their aspirations in universities and other learning institutions. If we build our universities and educational institutes at whatever rate that is physically possible for us then it may take another 100 years to meet everybody’s aspirations. That is why we need to look at alternate ways of reaching out to people by making our education more holistic and more flexible. Digital platforms could provide an answer. The new national education policy talks about various additional knowledge, which will be integrated and featured on these platforms, so that education becomes affordable and accessible to all. Another important area is the environment and the impact of climate change. Put together, security, health, agriculture, education and environment are prime concerns and these form the acronym SHAPE. So, if you want to shape the future of our country, these are the five areas where we need to do really innovative research.

Apurv Mishra: How well equipped are we to deal with these challenges. I am reminded of a 2015 quotation by Mr. Narayan Murthy where he said at the convocation ceremony of IAC Bangalore that “There has not been a single invention from India in the last 60 years that has become a household name globally, nor any idea that led to the earth-shaking invention to delight global citizens. Our youngsters have not done much impactful research work despite being equal to their counterparts in intellect and energy in western universities.” How do you assess the contribution of Indian universities to the field of science and technology since independence?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: I would rather prefer the term, Life Transforming Technologies, than some imaginary earth-shaking inventions. Over the last 50 years, there have been several life-transforming technologies developed in our country. The simplest example is the dairy cooperative societies that was started in Gujarat. All along we were thinking that only cow milk is suitable for producing milk powder. Dr Kurien and his team developed the technology for using buffalo milk to produce milk powder. That’s a life-transforming technology which has helped many farmers. Other examples abound, such as the development of highly efficient and pest-resistant seeds to help our farmers, which gave us the green revolution. There have been several formal and informal innovations that have been taking place in our country and I do not see our country lagging behind in terms of entrepreneurship. Today, India is rated as having the third largest entrepreneurial ecosystem. Many individuals in India are focused on becoming entrepreneurs, instead of taking up a job. There is a great future in terms of developing new technologies and becoming a leader in the world, but I also would like to state that the days of a scientist, sitting alone in a lab, looking through the microscope, and then coming up with a kind of eureka kind of invention, are over. Today, for scientists to come up with innovative ideas, they should be able to work in teams and with unlike minds. That is the only way we can come up with innovations. In India, we have taken several steps to encourage this kind of multi-disciplinary research in several universities. I would like to see more life-transforming technologies being developed in our country, which will positively impact the lives of the people down to the last person in the village. Many such things are happening and we need to be optimistic and hopeful, rather than being pessimistic.

Apurv Mishra: Let me now talk to you about some specific technologies that are on the verge of disrupting societies and economies around the world and let me start with your own subject area which is nanotechnology. Scholars, typically when they look at the lifecycle of technologies, use a four-phase framework where each technology goes to an R&D phase, an ascent phase a maturity phase and then eventually moves towards obsolescence. Where do you place developments in nanotechnology in this framework and which application of nanotechnology, do you think has the greatest potential to change our world in the coming years.

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: You are absolutely right. Any new technology that is being developed has these four cycles. In the case of nanotechnology, actually, there was too much hype. But fortunately, over a period of time, the technology matured. And now we know there are certain segments which can be developed at a rapid pace using nanotechnology. All of us are familiar with semiconductor technology which has advanced rapidly, is affordable and which has revolutionised communication technologies, affecting the lifestyle of everybody in the country. But there are other areas where nanotechnology can be a very futuristic opportunity for us. One is quantum computing, which is going to be a real necessity for us in future, especially with the collection and the storage of data. In today’s time, to process the data, we need extremely fast computers and only quantum computing can do that. Now, in quantum computing, there are several things that we need to do. One is, of course, using nanotechnology to develop these qubits and then the next challenge for us is how do you connect these cubits using interconnects. Today, in semiconductor technology, we are already facing a brick wall in terms of the speed of the processors, primarily because of the interconnect delays.  So tomorrow, if we want to develop extremely efficient quantum computers then how are we going to connect these qubits, is going to be another technological challenge. And the third most important thing is developing efficient algorithms because there will be qubit errors that will be generated when the data is transferred across the qubits, so you need efficient algorithms. It is a multidisciplinary approach, requiring electrical engineers, material scientists, physicists and computer scientists amongst others. In the last budget, INR 8000 crore was allotted for developing quantum computing in our country. Another area where nanotechnology will play a very disruptive role is in the pharmaceutical industry, in developing vaccines and drugs and in understanding the molecular structure of drugs. All this can be done using nanotechnology. In agriculture, nanotechnology will bring a revolution in terms of developing plants, which are pest resistant and which consume low quantities of water. So, there are many exciting possibilities with nanotechnology.

Apurv Mishra: Another technology that is generating a lot of hype is a new gene-editing technology called CRISPR whose pioneers got the Nobel Prize for Chemistry last year. This technology, in fact, got a lot of attention from mainstream media in 2018, when a Chinese scientist in Shanghai used CRISPR to create two gene-edited babies who were resistant to HIV. How do you assess the risks and rewards of the widespread use of gene editing?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: In gene editing, we identify a targeted part of DNA, remove it from the DNA and replace it with the other material there.  The work of the Chinese researchers in 2018 led to the birth of two girls, but there was huge consternation across the world. The outcry was not against the technology, but on the potential for its misuse. While research is important and should be encouraged, the ethical standpoint should also be kept in mind. If we develop proper ethical standards on how we use the outcome of the research, then we should promote our efforts to do innovative research in all areas.

Apurv Mishra: There is an American biologist, Mr. Edward Wilson, who famously said that the real problem of humanity is that we have paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology. When you look at the terrific potential of some of these emerging technologies like gene editing, experiments with viruses in government labs, the creation of artificial intelligence, development of unmanned aerial and terrestrial vehicles, then, is there a case to be made for drawing red lines on scientific research by governments. Are their certain kinds of experiments that governments should not allow scientists to work on, or are these expectations of imposing moral limits on technology, wrong?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: Our human mind is always in search of free-thinking. It always likes freedom. It doesn’t like curbs and that is how human societies have evolved. I think all areas of scientific research should be encouraged. Doing research is exploring our free minds. There should not be any curb on that but regulation is required when we want to use the product of this scientific research and we need a clear and ethical framework to decide on that. I will give you one simple example. When 30 or 40 years ago, scientists invented the cochlear implant for deaf persons, they thought they invented a great device. However, many deaf people approached them and questioned them on the need for such a device, stating that they were happy in their own world! Obviously, there was a disconnect, which should be avoided. When we do research, the stakeholders also need to be involved. Currently, what happens is that scientists sit in their labs and develop some great technologies, which they think is great for society. This process needs to be democratised by involving the stakeholders. In my view, I think any government regulation, which will affect the basic research itself may not be a good idea, but there should be regulations on how this technology will be used for human welfare.

Apurv Mishra: Given that you are describing the scientific process, we have today, multidisciplinary teams, sometimes working across geographies, on a particular research area. Is there a case to be made that it is even futile to expect governments to regulate scientific developments and experiments?

 

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: Human nature is to explore. Human nature doesn’t like to be bounded. So, therefore, any measures that we take, if it goes against human nature, will not be able to build any happy harmonious human societies.

Apurv Mishra: While talking about the role of governments in developing technological capabilities, two of India’s biggest success stories in this field are India’s space program and nuclear program, both of which were led by our government institutions. What are the lessons that we can learn from the success of these two programs to develop our technological capabilities in other critical areas?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: One clear lesson is that you can start from ground zero and become leaders in a specific technology. The other lessons that we had to learn from this experiment is that simply duplicating these experiments is not enough, because both the situation and the eco-system have changed. Take for example space technology, in which we are so successful. The components of successful Space Technology relate to good and very efficient propellers, small weight, high-efficiency fuels, heat resistant materials to make heat resistant shields for the rockets or for the vehicles which are re-entering into our atmosphere and so on. This is the greatest opportunity for us to involve other industries which can actually work on these areas. Therefore, besides government organisations, we need to encourage several other industries, the peripheral industries but central to the operation of the space program, to develop their technologies. The government must now act more like a catalyst to build and develop an ecosystem and not a similar kind of organisation. Once we develop the ecosystem, then several such industries will sprout and become big trees, strengthening our industrial ecosystem.

Apurv Mishra: There are two other technologies that are getting a lot of mainstream attention from the media these days. You spoke about the initial hype associated with nanotechnology. Gartner is a sort of firm which comes out with this annual hype cycle for emerging technologies to discern hype, from what’s commercially viable as far as technology is concerned. Can you share your views on the expectations that we should have from blockchain which is a technology that is getting a lot of attention from media these days? Do you think that it will fulfil the potential that people are talking about in transforming our lives?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: Our minds are conditioned to the existing technologies so when new technologies are developed then some technologies may create some kind of fear in our minds that it may disrupt our existing systems. So, we have only two options. One option is to keep away from data and technology. The other way is to master the technology so that it can be effectively used. Therefore, Blockchain is something that we cannot keep away from and especially when we have a globally interconnected world. We cannot remain as an isolated entity without getting affected. So, my feeling is that we need to get into blockchain technology and see how effectively we can use and integrate ourselves with the rest of the world. Who knows in future what new technologies will sprout on the horizon. If you want to deliver vaccines to some remote place then you can use unmanned vehicles and or if you want to secure your border or if you want to monitor the movement of any enemy troops, then we will have to develop our own technologies. There could be some time lag in terms of developing the technologies, as in the past we missed the semiconductor technology bus. But today, semiconductor technology has become so centralised. In fact, more than 60% of the chips are produced only from some of the Asian countries so they have become highly centralised and penetrating that may become a challenging task. Today we are talking about electronic waste. Where do you dump all these mobile phones and microprocessors because you use inorganic semiconductors in which we use a lot of plastic and the metals in these chips. So people are now looking to use organic semiconductors which are biodegradable, to make our electronic systems. We need to look around for such futuristic technologies and start early, so that we become leaders in those technologies in the world.

Apurv Mishra: The IPCC’s 4000-page report on climate change has made dire predictions about our medium to long-term future as a species, unless an immediate course correction is brought about. What role can technology play in mitigating global warming, and what is India’s role in developing these technologies for a more sustainable way of life?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: One of the reasons why climate change is happening is how we are leading our own lives. Today, we have come to believe that more consumption means more development, and we need to move away from that kind of attitude. We need to preserve our resources and use them as little as possible through reuse, recycle, kind of means. And we also need to think about our future generations and the world we are leaving behind for them. This is where some technologies can play a significant role. For example, we need to look at alternate ways to generate energy. Today, our focus is on renewable energy resources, such as solar power, wind power etc. Towards that end, we are now producing over a quarter of our requirement of energy using renewable energy resources. If we continue on the same path, India may actually become a role model for the rest of the world on how to generate energy using environmentally friendly means. So, there are several such technologies that we need to develop in order to control climate change. In India, we are also emphasising the use of electric vehicles. So, in the next 10-20 or 30 years, as we will see more electric vehicles moving on our roads, cutting down all the smoke that comes out of these vehicles. But here, there is another opportunity for us as a country. If you use electric vehicles, if you use solar power, you also require efficient batteries, and there is a lot of work that needs to be done. If we look at the last 150 years, the advancements that are taking place in battery technologies are not comparable to similar advances that have taken place in semiconductor technology or the pharmaceutical industry and so on. The materials that are required for making these batteries also is another challenge for us. Today we talk about lithium batteries, and there are only three or four countries that have huge deposits of lithium. So, instead of following the same path and in developing lithium ion-based batteries, we need to look at simple but efficient technologies like sodium batteries as sodium is abundantly available. And if we use sodium air batteries, their volume and weight also will come down. There are many such opportunities for us to develop new technologies in order to minimise or slow down the impact of climate change,

Apurv Mishra: The role of rare earth metals in the semiconductor industry has resulted in almost a global race between countries to acquire mines where these rare earth materials and minerals are produced. So, I want to ask you a larger philosophical question on the relationship between technology and society and its impact on individuals. In his seminal work, Future Shock, the futurist Alvin Toffler, predicted that the anxieties of a world are upended by rapidly emerging technologies. He spoke about how the root cause of most social problems in the times to come, would be the result of an accelerated rate of technological and social change that could leave people disconnected and suffering from what he called ‘shattering stress and disorientation’. How have his predictions about social paralysis, disorientation induced by rapid technological change held up?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: 100 or 200 years ago, if you look at the lifestyle of the people you know then they met the requirements for their family and themselves. If there was some surplus, it was shared with neighbours and that helped us in developing better relations with each other. But today, we have moved from such a situation of abundance to scarcity. Once that happens, there is so much competition among ourselves to access these scarce resources. The role of technology, therefore, should be to create that abundance so that human values such as compassion, sharing and loving each other, come to the fore. New technologies should not force us to lead a life of anxiety and mindless competition; rather, we should focus on improving not just the standard of living, but the quality of living. Also, we should focus on the importance of the diversity that we have, instead of indulging in identity politics. So, technology alone will not be able to provide the desired results for building human societies. We also have to look at the very nature of human beings, and then integrate these two in an effective manner. People need to understand the meaning of values and ethics. So, these values have to be instilled right from childhood, so that when they become adults, they become productive human beings in whatever work they do.

Apurv Mishra: What role do you think our civilisational values have in creating a society like this and in minimising the impact of “Future Shock on individuals and societies”?

Prof. M. Jagadesh Kumar: We need to focus on spiritual values. Sometimes it is also important for us to become philosophical, We do have a long civilisational continuity in our country. In addition to developing physically and materialistically, we must also give equal importance to the spiritual aspects of our life. In order to do that, it is important that we expose our students to the basic elements of philosophy in their school years. Philosophical issues will shape how we interact with each other. So, that is the reason why I strongly feel that both in the teacher training programs and right from childhood, elements of philosophy need to be taught to everybody.

Apurv Mishra: Thank You

Brief Bio:

Prof. Mamidala Jagadesh Kumar is an Academician, Administrator and Author who is currently the Vice-Chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and a professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering at IIT Delhi. And Mr Apurv Mishra is Senior Research Fellow at India Foundation.

Today, however impressive the strategy is, to make it work in scale and with effectiveness, implementation is key. The best strategy can come to naught, even be counterproductive if implemented poorly. There are many changes in technology that have made it easier to implement and administrate policies today. However, the essential characteristics of human nature – our thoughts and feelings — continue to be the same though the context is different. The past therefore becomes a useful tool to give us insights into how administration occurred in ancient, more complex times. Let us take a few examples from about 1000 years ago, found on the walls of temples in Tamil Nadu.

Why temples and why Tamil Nadu? Today, we see temples as primarily religious institutions. Perhaps some will also see them as repositories of art and architecture. In ancient times they were much more than that. Every aspect of government we have today and also the work done by NGOs, was performed by the temple for the local community. Temples provided employment, stored grain, safeguarded communal facilities, provided health and educational facilities and collected taxes / disbursed social schemes of the ruling king. The other vital role they played was in emotionally uniting the community. Kings therefore, found it expedient to identify themselves with God and the palaces with temples to increase the emotional connect and legitimacy to their rule.

Using the temple, the kings were able to get commitment from their people in addition to mere compliance (which is more temporary and harder to impose). Of course, rulers and subjects were also deeply moved by faith, but this socio-political motive cannot be ignored and must be seen as politically and economically expedient rather than “good” or “bad”. Temples in Tamil Nadu have the maximum number of inscriptions on their walls. Every line is only about the political/economic/social affairs of the community. There is no religious or philosophical text and therefore they become very unbiased records to study. Sadly, in other states, the inscriptions have seldom survived. While the inscriptions have been translated, published and discussed since the 19^th century, they have not made it to mainstream discussions and remain only in largely academic or history-enthusiast circles.

For those who are keen to learn more about Indian techniques of administration, they provide a wealth of ideas and information, relevant for today. For this article, let us take a few examples. First, around setting process in place and secondly on implementation and compliance.

A note on the organisation of the administration will be relevant. About 1000 years ago, at the height of the Chola power over Tamil Nadu, which also included parts of Karnataka, Telangana and Kerala, the general structure was far more federal in nature than it is today. The king was expected to provide security from external aggression and internal civil war. All the other matters of life were governed locally by elected representatives who were either land owners and or merchants or tradesmen. Maintenance of water bodies, relief from floods and drought were all local issues. At best a king would support by reducing or waiving taxes. The local bodies were even powerful enough to alter their rules of membership and elections as seen in the inscriptions of Manur (Tenkasi) and Uttiramerur. In a way, “minimum government and maximum governance was the unsaid way of work. The significant decisions connected to these communities were engraved on the walls of temples with the date, and the signature of witnesses. These are known as inscriptions or epigraphs. They give us truthful and unbiased information on actual issues that came up with formulation and implementation of strategy.

Creation of a Strategy

The largest land owner in the community was the temple. The income from the temple land, paddy, was given to the king (which was either taken to the capital or stored on his behalf in the temple itself), and the temple – which used it to pay salaries. Temples would also have land that was fallow and not cultivated. To increase their income, temples were always looking for long term leases of fallow land to those who will bring it under cultivation and pay taxes from that. These taxes could be either as produce or as copper coins.

There are several inscriptions on the mechanics of setting up a system like this. Here are some examples. Tirukolakudi is in Sivaganga district in southern Tamil Nadu. Although it is close to Karaikudi, famous as a tourist spot, it receives no tourists and pilgrims come only on important festival days. The main shrine is a cave temple that is stylistically dated to at least 9^th CE or earlier. It is one of the rare cave temples in the Pandya region and is remarkably hewn out of the parent hill rock and fully aligned and proportional. This has since been added to with subsidiary shrines. Below this, next to a beautiful pool of spring water is a smaller cave with an early bas relief of Ganesa; one of the oldest in the region. There are more temples further down and at the foot of the hill. All these temples are plain structures and have only 1 or 2 additional cells for pilgrims to stand and worship. We have no bhakti literature verses on these temples. At the top of the hill is a small shrine for Muruga or Karthikeya. Apart from the inscriptions, the temples are in a very scenic setting and deserve much more attention from pilgrims, tourists and researchers of medieval Indian history and politics. There are 82 inscriptions found on the walls of the various temples or on the rock of the hill itself.

An important inscription from 129 CE (ARE 1916, C66), in the reign of the Pandya king Jatavarman Sundara Pandya temple gives us an idea of the method a strategy was thought through. The long inscription is in Tamil and says, the Maheswaras, Sri Rudras, Devakanni (those who have leased out temple lands for cultivation), temple accountants gave some temple land to one Sundara Pandya Narasingadevan. He was allowed to enjoy them provided he would repair the water sources that had fallen into disuse, clear the jungle and for this use, he will pay a land tax or melvaram to the temple. The tax was dependent on the crop. It was 1/3^rd of the produce for tinai (foxtail millet) , varagu (kodo millet), ellu (sesame), payaru (lentil), kuruvai (short term rice crop), Karumbu (sugarcane), kozhundu, karunai, manjal (turmeric), inji (Ginger), sengazhuneer (lotus), vazhai (banana), vazhathalai (banana tree leaves to use as eating plates?), poosani (pumpkin) etc and for trees like ma (mango), pala (jack fruit), nathai , elumichai (lemon), kulaviruli, nelli (Gooseberry), iluppai (Madhuca Longiflora) etc., The tax was 1/5^th for crops like coconut, areca palms and 1/7^th for dry crops according to yield. This gives us a glimpse of crops cultivated at that time. The inclusion of lemon/lime is interesting for this period.

For land that he has brought into cultivation by clearing the jungle, he had to pay 1/10^th in the first year, 1/9^th in the second year, 1/8^th in the third year and 1/7^th in the fourth year and after that a permanent tax of 1/3^rd. This accounts for the effort he has to invest to make the land cultivable and is therefore fair on his efforts and the temple which was the land owner. The system can be compared to the SEZ policy of governments today. The inscription also specifies that the temple share belongs to the king and can be disposed in his pleasure.

Srirangam has the world’s largest temple and in this island and adjoining areas, the Kaveri River was prone to flooding. Land had to be reclaimed for cultivation and the similar method as above was used multiple times to show that this was a common practice across kingdoms in the Tamil country. From the reign of the Chola king, Kulotunga I (1070-1122), is an interesting donation from Arayan Sendan who lived in Ponpari village. He purchased leased land from the temple and in return funded a large orchard of jackfruit and kamugu (areca nut) trees. Also in the orchard were champak, karumugai (Cananga odorata) bushes and a pond for Sathapathi – a 1000 petal lotus. From the garden, a garland was required to be sent to the temple expressly for the night time puja.

Human nature being human nature, things were not always perfect, there were many instances when the fears of human beings made them put their selfish self-interest over the need of what was good for the community. This was punished either at the local level or by the king. Any act that resulted in reduction of revenue for the king or a threat to national security received quick and brutal punishment. Others were dealt with locally and decisions depended on the caste of the person (higher the caste, higher the punishment) or the economic prosperity of the convicted. Fines were the norm and the most severe punishment was social ostracism. There are many inscriptions on crimes and punishment that show that the justice procedure was far swifter and harsher than today.

The local assemblies performed the role of both enacting legislation and settling disputes. Since it was an agricultural economy, most disputes were connected with land boundaries and irrigation rights and issues. Criminal cases were not uncommon. History textbooks have traditionally told us the brahmins were the “priestly class”, but the inscriptions give us a more nuanced picture. The educated brahmin was well versed in the nyaya shastra or law books. That was the reason they were useful to the king – they ensured that justice was dispensed locally so that cases did not get escalated to the king who was the final judge. Today our higher courts are burdened with cases – the king wanted to avoid this and therefore supported brahmins, especially those well versed to play the role of a judge.

A 930 CE Chola inscription in the temple of Tiruninravur, Chennai is connected to the constitution and service of the judiciary. The village assembly met together and decided that the judges were elected from among themselves, provided they were qualified in legal treatises. They would serve for one year and would not serve after that for five years either as a judge or even in an administrative committee. The restriction of the five-year interval was reduced to two years in the case of relatives like fathers, brothers, or sons of those who had served before. This meant that even the relatives of a sitting judge were not permitted to take that position for two years after their relative was a judge.

The people who got together to decide this is also interesting. They were all land owners which meant they had a direct stake in the issue and all the various sub committees (variyam) were represented. The members included – the judicial assembly, the committee that maintained all water tanks that were common property of the village, the garden (orchard or oil yielding trees?) maintenance committee, the experts in shastras and the “distinguished people” or “visishta peru makkal” of the village. Sitting judges were debarred from holding other offices for their term, received one kunri of gold as payment, were expected to settle and hand over accounts at the end of the term to the committee and a fine of 20 gold coins were imposed on violators.

The Manur inscription deals with the constitution of a legislative and judicial committee. The Ambalanatha Swami temple is on a slightly raised part of land in the village of Manur. The temple is only locally known and is a small one with very few devotees. It is largely unknown outside the village and is similar to the thousands of other temples that dot the rural landscape of India. The interior of the temple is also plain and simple. Between the entrance and the main shrine are rows of pillars. One of them has a long inscription in Tamil script and Grantha script. The inscription is from the 35th reginal year of Pandya King Maranjadaiyan.  Not much is known about the king and the pillar has been painted many times over so even reading the text now is difficult. The pillar has no artistic value but the inscription is of enormous value for India.

The context can be surmised from the seven clauses in the inscription as follows. The original character of the village landowners seems to have undergone a change over the years. The composition of the Sabha had also had to change keeping this in mind.  In doing so, the rights of the descendants of the original land owners had to be safeguarded as well as those of the new landowners – who had either come into the village by purchasing land or as the sons-in-law of the original land owners.

The village is mentioned as Mananilainallur in Kalaikudi Nadu. The village is referred to as a Brahmadeyam – a village created by a king by giving a large parcel of land to a group of Brahmins who in turn split the shares, auctioned it to various communities and created a new village. The general body meeting was announced by beat of drum and conducted in the sacred place called Govardhana (possibly the raised area on which the temple stands?). The Vyavasta or resolution was as follows:

• The permanent members who had veto powers would include one person from the family of each of the original shareholders. They also had to be conversant with mantra brahmana inclusive of one dharma and be of good conduct. They could participate in all Mahasabha
• The above privileges in the Sabha were extended to those who already owned shares by purchase or gift or dowry provided they also had the same educational qualifications and were of good conduct.
• For the future, regardless of how they acquired property, – by purchase or gift or dowry, they cannot excersise the above powers and only be ordinary members. Depending on their property they can take part in in the deliberations at 1/4th, ½ and 3/4th.
• Those who purchased shares from the original shareholders, had to learn and pass an exam of an entire Veda including the parisista for membership of the first category.
• Those who purchased property/had rights to it by other means were to be bound by this agreement.
• Those who have no full-fledged power (sravanai) could not be in any of the subcommittees (Variyams) that worked under the mahasabha for the village.
• Sabha members who frequently obstructed proceedings by casting negative votes, were find five kasu (copper or gold coins, possibly copper) but would not lose their rights per this agreement.

While the actual working of the Sabha and the nature of the subcommittees are not documented, the entrance criteria, the rules for efficient transactions are remarkable for that period. Even more remarkable is that such far reaching political and judicial decisions of self-governance could be taken by a small village. Even by today’s standards of federalism, such autonomy is impossible to see.

How was corruption handled?

Human nature being what it is, corruption issues wasn’t very different then as it is now. Some inscriptions deal with how corruption was handled. Tiruvotriyur near Chennai has a large temple and was wealthy in the old days due to the salt pans and the port. The temple has a few inscriptions connected to corruption. In the 14^th CE, several temple employees had stolen property that belonged to the temple. When this was discovered, many of them had died by then. The king’s judicial officers seized land and houses belonging to them and auctioned them off. Kalavupattam was a fine levied on those who had made deliberate errors in measuring grain. Another inscription makes mention of how, in a periodic audit in the times of a Chola king, the pon variyam or the committee that received taxes in gold was found to have made errors in both the quantity of gold they had and the quality. A lengthy enquiry convicted the members and they were socially ostracised and their lands and houses sold to pay for the principal and interest of the missing amount. In another case in Tiruneermalai temple, the temple treasury box had several gold coins missing. However, the box was sealed and the door to the room was sealed and stamped as well. So, this was clearly an inside job. The priest and a watchman confessed and their land was taken away, rights they had in the temple revoked and they were asked to leave the village. In some occasions, the property of relatives of the guilty party were also not spared.

Criminal cases are also to be found. A frequent case is of two people going out for a hunt and one dies. If there is strong evidence that it was a mistake then the guilty is asked to fund an expiatory oil lamp for the temple and endow it with some land or animals to defray the expenses.

Conclusion

The past is past and the future is the future, never the two shall meet. However, the past is the root for the fruit of the future and looking at the way issues were managed, give us the following insights –

• Political authority used a strong emotional, feeling related bond to connect with people and maintain legitimacy and reduce ideological opposition.
• Temples were used as local institutions and were vested with rights and duties.
• Except for tax collection and security, all issues were locally managed through elected representatives.
• Decisions were largely taken in a transparent manner after a lot of discussion and deliberation and meticulously recorded.
• Punishments were strict, swift and followed established procedures and were not whimsical decisions taken by old men sitting under a tree.
• The general principal was that the good of the larger community was more important than individual good.
• One hopes that a deeper study of such administrative can inform policy formulation and implementation in India today.

Author Brief Bio: Pradeep Chakravarthy is a graduate of the London School of Economics and is in the last stages of his PhD research on administration in the mediaeval period and its relevance for today. He is the author of seven books with three more in press. He has worked in HR/Learning and development with Infosys and McKinsey and now works with organisations to help change behaviour and culture through Indic wisdom from history, mythology and philosophy. He is based out of Chennai.

In July 2010, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) intercepted electronic communications indicating that senior Al-Qaeda leaders had distributed a “strategy guide” to operatives around the world advising them how “to anticipate and defeat” unmanned aircraft. Al-Qaeda was sponsoring simultaneous research projects to develop jammers to interfere with GPS signals and infrared tags that drone operators rely on to pinpoint missile targets.

Other projects included the development of small radio-controlled aircraft, or hobby planes, which insurgents apparently saw as having potential for monitoring the flight patterns of U.S. drones. That same year, the CIA noted in a report that Al-Qaeda was placing special emphasis on the recruitment of technicians with expertise in drones technology.^[1]

The Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and other violent non-state actors, used the technology available on the consumer market to build or purchase small drones modified into “killer bees” capable of creating significant damage and terrorizing civilian and military populations. Drones can be used in various ways: surveillance, strategic communication, transportation (smuggling), disruption of events, complementing other activities or as a weapon.[2]

The first recorded successful attack by terrorists using drones was in mid-2013 when Hezbollah reportedly dropped two small explosive devices on Syrian rebel strongholds using a drone supplied by Iran.[3]

In 2015, Kurdish fighters in Syria shot down multiple small commercial drones laden with explosives, belonging to ISIS.

In 2016, ISIS announced the establishment of the “Unmanned Aircraft of the Mujahideen” unit whose purpose was to engineer UASs for the group to deploy in combat.  During coalition forces operations to regain Mosul in June 2017, ISIS flew more than 100 drones against frontline forces every month.[4]

Al-Qaeda has taken inspiration from these events. It planned to use drones to take down airliners using explosive-laden drones at airports in the US and the UK.

In most cases, ISIS used DIY “do it yourself” techniques to combine high- and low-tech components purchased from various connections across Asia and Europe. The program appears to have been shaped by two Bangladeshi brothers who recruited other operatives to work alongside them. They created a series of shell companies to acquire consumer drones from manufacturers in Asia, the US, and Canada. They would then use other shell companies to purchase components such as cameras and GPS units before activating them in the US or Europe. While the eventual capture of one brother and killing of another in a drone strike dramatically dismantled this network, the terror group was still able to obtain drones through other connections.[5]

As jihadis began using drones, they also began to share technology with each other – including technology they obtained from U.S. drones.[6]

Sunni jihadists

ISIS reportedly began using drones in its terrorist activities from 2013 in Syria and Iraq, for spreading propaganda, reconnaissance and attacks. In August 2014, it uploaded propaganda images on the internet of aerial shots taken of bases of hostile forces in Raqqa, in northern Syria, which was its first public display of using drones. From 2016 to 2017, it loaded bombs onto drones and dropped them from the air in successive attacks. As ISIS-controlled areas were scaled down in Syria and Iraq, opportunities for drone usage also decreased; however, drones were discovered in hideouts of ISIS fighters in Iraq in September 2019.

Jihadi discussions about drones on social media, websites, and forums include topics such as: planning attacks on U.S. drone bases, hacking drones, modifying commercially available drones, building homemade drones, and developing methods to disrupt and down Western and rival jihadi groups’ drones, and more.

The commercial drones used by Islamic State have weighed about 50 pounds or less. In addition to using drones with full-motion video to look for attack opportunities and to monitor Iraqi Security Forces, the pilotless aircraft are being used to provide target information for vehicles carrying suicide bombs.

In October 2014 the leading English-language ISIS disseminator Twitter account ShamiWitness tweeted a link to a PDF file titled “The Beginner’s Guide to Multicopters,” which provides instruction on how to build entry-level multi-rotor drones.

In 2016, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Uyghur anti-China jihadi group Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) released videos documenting the group’s assault on grain silos northwest of Hama, in Syria, footage for recon and documentation of the battle, and remote-controlled car bombs. One video featured drone footage showing a suicide attack carried out by a TIP fighter against enemy forces in an apartment complex that killed “40 Iranians.”

In 2016, a pro-Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Telegram channel posted a list of 17 suggestions for lone-wolf attacks during the upcoming 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The post suggested attacks attaching small explosives to toy drones,

Boko Haram, which is active in Nigeria and nearby countries, used drones in its  attacks against the security forces, and “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula” (AQAP) supporters used the internet to call on the group to carry out similar attacks as the one targeting the Saudi Arabian oil facilities in September 2019.^[7]

See some of the captured arsenal of ISIS manufactured drones, both weaponized and non-weaponized, used against Iraqi enemy forces.[8]

 

Shia and pro-Iranian jihadists[9]

In December 2009, the Iran-backed Iraqi militants had hacked into video feeds of American Predator and Shadow drones and passed what they found on to Hezbollah. This was a precedent for Iran’s provision of drones and drone technology to Hezbollah for use in Syria and to the Shi’ite Houthi rebels in Yemen.

In a March 2017, Hashem Al-Mousawi, spokesman for the Iran-backed Iraqi Shi’ite militia Al-Nujaba, highlighted the militia’s activities in Iraq and Syria. Published images show that the militia is operating Iranian drones.

“We are working day and night to develop drones that can be put together in a living room,” said Abu Alaa al-Walai, the leader of Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, an Iranian-controlled Shiite militia in Iraq.[10]

Hezbollah

Iran reportedly provided the Hezbollah  with drone components and taught its militants how to fly UAVs remotely. Hezbollah initially used its UAVs exclusively to spy on and attack Israel. But Hezbollah expanded its drone operations into Syria when it joined the civil war on the side of President Bashar al Assad in 2012.

Hezbollah’s first flight of an unmanned aerial vehicle into Israeli airspace (a Mirsad-1 drone, an updated version of the early Iranian Mohajer drone) for reconnaissance purposes occurred in November 2004. It hovered over the Western Galilee town of Nahariya for about 20 minutes and then returned to Lebanon before the Israeli air force could intercept it.[11]

Hezbollah launched in August 2006, during the Second Lebanon War, three small Ababil drones into Israel each carrying a 40-50-kilogram explosive warhead intended for bombing strategic targets. This time Israeli F-16s shot them down, one on the outskirts of Haifa.

The next appearance of a Hezbollah drone on October 6, 2012, was a foray that took Israel by surprise. An Iranian drone called “Ayub” flew south from Lebanon over the Mediterranean and into Israel via the Gaza Strip, moving westward about 35 miles into the Negev and penetrating to a point near the town of Dimona, the site of Israel’s nuclear complex. There it was shot down over a forest by Israeli aircraft.

A video released in August 2016 by a Hezbollah-affiliated media outlet appeared to confirm that Hezbollah is using attack drones dropping Chinese-made MZD-2 cluster bombs on three Syrian rebel positions outside Aleppo, in support of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Hezbollah has claimed to have this capacity since September 2014.

Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Hamas’s drone program has existed since 2012, but the Gaza-based militants have one of the smaller and less advanced arsenals compared with Iran’s other proxies. Its drones have been constructed using local materials. Hamas has used its drones to surveil Israeli sites; it launched kamikaze-style drone attacks on Israel in 2014, 2018, 2019 and 2021.[12]

The Hamas drone program faced two major setbacks. The first was an Israeli airstrike that hit eight Hamas drone storage facilities. The second setback was the assassination of Mohammed Zawahri, a leading Hamas drone engineer, in December in Tunisia. Hamas blamed Israel for the attack and acknowledged that Zawahri had designed drones for its military wing, the Al Qassam Brigades.

After the 2014 Israeli Operation Protective Edge in Gaza, Hamas established an air unit to operate spy drones. In May 2018, it launched at least three drones carrying explosives toward Israel: one landed in the Negev and two landed in the front lawn of a house near the Gaza border. in 2019, Hamas launched at least four separate drone attacks against Israel.

In May 2021, during the latest conflict with Israel, Hamas unveiled a new suicide drone, the Shehab, similar to the Iranian Ababil-T drone although smaller in wingspan. It can hover near its target and explode near it or on impact. It was the “first instance of a precision-guided munition in Gaza,” said Fabian Hinz, an arms expert. In a propaganda video, Hamas displayed at least four Shehab drones.[13]

A Shehab suicide drone unveiled by Hamas in May 2021

During the May 2021 Operation Guardian of the Walls, an Israeli F-16 fighter jet with a Python-5 air-to-air missile downed one Hamas drone, and an Iron Dome system intercepted another, a first for the platform. In total, Israel has intercepted all six Hamas fired drones, using multiple countermeasures including “classified means”.[14]

The Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group released in May 2019 footage purporting to show a drone controlled by its operatives dropping improvised incendiary bombs on an Israel Defense Forces tank stationed on the border with Israel. The footage is filmed from a camera mounted to the drone as well as a long-range lens on the ground in Gaza filming the tank. The tank appears unscathed by the relatively small blasts.[15]

In April 2019, Israel announced that it had foiled an attempt to smuggle 172 mailed packages containing military equipment, including commercial drones, into the Gaza Strip via the Erez Crossing from Israel.

The threat of CBW attacks with drones

Over 25 years ago, the Japanese terror group/cult Aum Shinrikyo considered using drones to distribute sarin gas against civilian populations.

EU Security Commissioner Julian King warned in August 2019, that “drones are becoming more and more powerful and smarter, which makes them more and more attractive for hostile acts.” According to Germany’s die Welt—which published King’s comments—in December 2018, France’s Anti-Terrorism Unit (UCLAT) issued a “secret report” for the country’s Special Committee on Terrorism which warned of “a possible terrorist attack on a football stadium by means of an unmanned drone that could be equipped with biological warfare agents.”[16]

In 2017, Gilles de Kerchove, the European Union’s counterterrorism coordinator, warned that homegrown jihadis could use drones in Europe to drop biological weapons on crowded public spaces. “Someone could process a virus in a cloud lab, take a drone and use a GPS geolocation system to steer the drone, and go to a football stadium to spread the virus created and kill 50,000 people. So, my point is that we need to properly assess every possible threat that these new disruptive techs might pose.”[17]

Conclusion

Small drone attacks on critical infrastructure and personnel from Lebanon to Yemen have demonstrated how conventional air defenses, built to intercept high speed missiles or identify other airborne threats such as aircraft, are incapable of detecting smaller intruders.

Although most of the known incidents and attacks took place outside Europe, it seems that most of the drones used by the Sunni jihadist organizations were bought on the open market by the existing network of jihadists in the West.

Moreover, the members of jihadist groups and supporters were instructed how to purchase, to improve or even construct such drones by themselves and “lone-wolves” were encouraged to used them against civil targets in the Western countries.

Therefore, it can be evaluated that part of this knowledge is already in the hands of jihadist individuals and the videos disseminated in the past by the various organizations give motivation for their emulation in the urban environment in Europe. This threat is enhanced by some of the foreign fighters returnees to Europe and elsewhere, who possibly were involved on the ground in Syria, Iraq, or Libya in drone operations.

The situation is different concerning the Shia pro-Iranian organizations, the ones which have the advantage of being supported by a rogue regime using indiscriminate terrorism worldwide and very much involved in developing drone technologies. The Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ, and the Houthis are already active actors in this field, for the moment only on the battlegrounds in the Middle East.

[1] Craig Whitlock and Barton Gellman, “U.S. documents detail al-Qaeda’s efforts to fight back against drones,” The Washington Post, September 3, 2013

[2]  Thomas Braun and edited by Alexander Fleiss, “Miniature Menace: The Threat of Weaponized Drone Use by Violent Non-state Actors,” Wild Blue Yonder Online Journal, Official United States Air Force Website, September 14, 2020, at https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Wild-Blue-Yonder/Article-Display/Article/2344151/miniature-menace-the-threat-of-weaponized-drone-use-by-violent-non-state-actors/

[3]  Adiv Sterman, “Hezbollah Drones Wreak Havoc on Syrian Rebel Bases.” The Times of Israel, 21 Sept. 2014, www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-drones-wreak-havoc-on-syrian-rebel-bases.

[4]  Thomas Braun and Alexander Fleiss, Miniature Menace.

[5]  Ibid.

[6] Steven Stalinsky and R. Sosnow, “A Decade Of Jihadi Organizations’ Use Of Drones – From Early Experiments By Hizbullah, Hamas, And Al-Qaeda To Emerging National Security Crisis For The West As ISIS Launches First Attack Drones,” Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 1300, MEMRI, February 21, 2017,  https://www.memri.org/reports/decade-jihadi-organizations-use-drones-%E2%80%93-early-experiments-hizbullah-hamas-and-al-qaeda#

[7]  Review and Prospects of Internal and External Situations, Public Security Intelligence Agency Report, Japan, January 2020, p. 44.

[8]  Anne Speckhard and Ardian Shajkovc, “Terrorists’ Use of Drones Promises to Extend Beyond Caliphate Battles,” Homeland Security Today, March 5, 2019, at   ihttps://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/counterterrorism/terrorists-use-of-drones-promises-to-extend-beyond-caliphate-battles/

[9]  Steven Stalinsky and R. Sosnow, A Decade of Jihadi Organizations’ Use of Drones.

[10] Paul Iddon, “Experts: Radicals May Soon Be Able to Use Drones for Terrorist Attacks on the West,” European Eye on Radicalization, April 10, 2020, at https://eeradicalization.com/experts-radicals-may-soon-be-able-to-use-drones-for-terrorist-attacks-on-the-west/

[11] Milton Hoenig, “Hezbollah and the Use of Drones as a Weapon of Terrorism,” FAS Public Interest Report, Spring 2014, Vol. 67, No. 2.

[12]  Andrew Hanna, “Iran’s Drone Transfers to Proxies,” The Iran Primer, United States Institute for Peace, June 30, 2021.

[13]  Ibid.

[14]  Seth J. Frantzman, “Iron Dome intercepts drone during combat for first time, says Israeli military,” DefenseNews, May 17, 2021.

[15]  “Islamic Jihad releases footage claiming to be drone attack on IDF tank,” Times of Israel, May 30, 2019.

[16]  Zak Doffman, “Warning Over Terrorist Attacks Using Drones Given by EU Security Chief, Forbes, August 9, 2019.

[17] “A View From the CT Foxhole: Gilles de Kerchove, European Union (EU) Counter-Terrorism Coordinator,” CTC Sentinel, August 2020, Vol. 13, ISSUE 8.

In a large pluralist country like India, the pursuit of essential policy reforms often gets mired in controversies that can derail or push back the proposed measures. Political and other compulsions of various parties and vested interest groups make such reforms and measures convenient issues for whipping up passions to further their own interests, even if the same is detrimental to the national cause.

Since independence, building communication infrastructure in our border areas has been held hostage to the actions of groups which have opposed such development, ostensibly on grounds of preserving the ecology. Why both activities cannot be carried out simultaneously is conveniently glossed over. Such groups have also hindered development of our island territories. It is only now, during the past six to seven years,

that a concerted push has been given to infrastructure development in our border regions, but making up for the neglect of decades remains a huge challenge.

Reforms in the defence sector have also been tardy, largely due to resistance from certain groups who have a vested interest in continuation of the status quo. Two landmark reforms which have finally seen the light of day are the creation of the post of Chief of Defence Staff and more recently, the corporatisation of the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB). Defence production has also now been opened to the private sector and defence items opened up for exports. Had such action been taken earlier, India’s dependency on foreign equipment would have been far less today.

Certain landmark reforms of the government like the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), 2019 and the new Farm Acts that were enacted in 2020, were historic and long overdue. Yet, we have seen significant opposition to these, with anti CAA protests in Delhi blocking traffic for months on end and the anti-Farm Act protests, which are still

ongoing, witnessing protesters at the outskirts of Delhi, who refuse to budge from the protest sites. The challenge of implementing well intentioned reforms are indeed immense, and legislation will no longer be enough to enable the desired changes to be executed on the ground. It will have to be accompanied by a strong narrative, well before such legislations are introduced, so that public opinion is firmly behind the changes and the opposition to it would invite consequences when elections are held.

It reflects poorly on India’s polity that even when India is fighting a pandemic, there are groups which are instilling fears about the vaccine’s which are being produced in India and creating a phobia that is causing vaccine hesitancy in some quarters. While such fears have been largely allayed by the government’s proactive approach, the lessons for the future are stark and can be ignored only at our peril. The need to build the right narrative, debate it in public platforms and ensure its wide acceptance is how we need to move in future. When the country moves to a Uniform Civil Code and to nuanced population control measures, it would be vital to have a narrative that has been

debated and accepted across the board, to avoid any fissures in its implementation.

Author Brief Bio: Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation

Introduction

The Covid-19 pandemic, which spread across the world since the beginning of 2020, had its origin in the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which originated from the city of Wuhan, the capital of the Hubei Province in Central China. Coronaviruses are a family of contagious viruses that can cause a range of mild to severe respiratory illnesses. A mutation of corona virus resulted in the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was detected and identified in China in December 2019. The disease was named Covid-19, Covid being a shortened name for Corona Virus Disease and 19 reflecting the year of detection.

Much of the misery of the world could have been avoided had the Chinese government been upfront with the outbreak, but there was a massive cover up, which strangely, was glossed over by the WHO. The first official confirmation for Covid-19 came on 31 December 2019, when the WHO China Country Office was informed about a cluster of 27 pneumonia cases of unknown etiology, detected in Wuhan.^[1] The Chinese claimed that the outbreak originated from live bats, sold in a seafood market in Wuhan. This version has very few takers today, and the possibility that the virus came from a leak in the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) is gaining increasing salience.

The WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, while addressing a media gathering in Geneva on 11 March 2020, said that the WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and was deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity of the disease. He then said that “We have therefore made the assessment that Covid-19 can be characterised as a pandemic.”^[2] By this time, however, the disease had spread to much of the world, raising questions about why the WHO delayed such an important announcement, with some alleging that the WHO was deliberately covering up for the Chinese.

The Lab Leak Theory

While China and the WHO were propagating the theory that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a sea food market in Wuhan, a group of researchers from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi, in February 2020, published a paper to the contrary. Their report was based on finding four unique inserts in the virus, which were unlikely to be accidental in nature.^[3] For the first time, a view stating that the virus did not originate from a sea food market, but likely had its origin in a laboratory was expressed. Their work provided a new insight into the evolution and pathogenicity of the virus, with important implications for diagnosis, but strangely, their work was trashed by virologists, and they were forced to withdraw their paper. Today, evidence is increasingly mounting to indicate that the virus originated from a laboratory. Dozens of samples from the earliest Wuhan patients in China have been deleted by China, which, as per an American professor who spotted their deletion, and who recovered and analysed 13 files, found viruses which were much more evolved than would be expected of a new pathogen.^[4] Obviously, a massive cover up by China has taken place, considering how data, which was earlier available in the web, now stands deleted. A group calling itself D.R.A.S.T.I.C. (Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating COVID-19), a collection of people from across the globe, have done yeoman work in this regard, to disprove the theory that the virus originated from a seafood market in Wuhan. Their work suggests that the virus likely escaped by accident or design from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.^[5] The cover up by the Chinese government is perhaps an attempt to avoid world censure and to obviate being held liable for paying the cost of vaccinating the world along with other punitive damages.

The First Wave

The first wave of Covid-19 hit India after it had already impacted countries in Europe and other parts of the world. It was fortuitous that the Indian Prime Minister took the onus on himself to sensitise the Indian public on the impact of the virus and what action the public needed to take to reduce the impact of the pandemic. This was essential as very little was known about the virus and the spread of the disease. A countrywide lockdown was imposed for three weeks from 25 March to 14 April 2020, which was later extended up to 03 May, then further extended to 17 May and finally to 31 May before the restrictions across the country were gradually lifted. The impact of closing down the whole country had a severe economic fallout, with the economy shrinking by 7.3%,^[6] but in hindsight was the correct decision as it limited the spread of the disease. India’s health infrastructure, as indeed the rest of the world’s too, was not geared to take on a pandemic and even basic items like face masks and sanitisers were not available in the quantity required. More importantly, it gave the people of India time to adjust to a new normal and for the states to gear up their medical infrastructure requirements for dealing with the pandemic.

Another decision with far reaching ramifications was the emphasis laid by the government on developing a vaccine against Covid-19. The early impetus given to the development of the vaccine, which was personally monitored by the Prime Minister himself, was indeed very far sighted as India now is in a position to not only cater for its own needs, but to also assist other countries across the globe.

The First Wave of Covid-19 peaked in mid-September 2020, with the seven-day average of new infections receding thereafter from a high of 93,617 new cases (See Figure 1). Thereafter, the drop in cases was gradual till the end of the year, with different states showing variable levels of control over the pandemic. The downward trend continued till 15 February, which recorded a case load of 9139 new infections. The infections started increasing thereafter, with 28 February recording 15616 new infections, which increased to 24,437 new infections on 15 March and to 72,182 new infections on 31 March.^[7] Clearly, the first wave was over and the second wave had begun.

The Second Wave

In the first quarter of 2021, there was a general feeling which permeated the medical community and the corridors of power, both in Delhi and in the state capitals, that India had got the better of the virus. While Europe was hit by a second wave, which was far more virulent than the first, there was a presumption that India would not be similarly impacted. Over the previous year, a lot of experience had also been gained about the spread and control of the virus, which perhaps had induced a sense of complacency in the public. This complacency was aggravated by a few factors, all of which were to play a role in the massive outbreak that was to follow.

The farmers agitation for repeal of the farm laws, which began in the last quarter of 2020, was continuing despite the pandemic. Thousands of farmers, mostly from Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh, remained camped around three border points of Delhi—Singhu, Tikri and Ghazipur—demanding a repeal of the farm laws enacted by the Centre in September 2020. While hearing a petition on the subject, the Apex Court said that public roads should not be blocked, come what may, in an indirect reference to the farmers protest,^[8] but this has had little impact on the protesters, who remain camped there till date.

The Kumbh Mela, an annual event, witnessed over 9 million pilgrims take the holy dip in the Ganga between January 14 to April 27. Of this, about six million pilgrims congregated in Haridwar in the month of April, which coincided with the worst surge in the second wave of the pandemic.^[9] While the state had mandated all protocols to be followed to obviate the spread of Covid-19, the sheer numbers involved made all such efforts a practical impossibility. Restricting, or perhaps even imposing a ban on the sacred event for the year would have been the right option to prevent the spread of the pandemic, but it was a decision which was difficult to take politically, especially since no such ban was placed for the farmers agitation!

Alongside the above, elections to the state assemblies of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry were due and the Election Commission had set the dates for polling, which was to be carried out in phases from 27 March to 29 April. No curbs were placed on rallies as curbs had not been placed earlier on the Kumbh Mela nor on the farmers agitation. A more pragmatic decision, considering the way the pandemic was spreading, was to have postponed the polls and placed the states under President’s Rule, but a decision of that nature would have created huge political turmoil. In the event, India witnessed a huge surge in Covid-19 cases, though the surge cannot be attributed solely to the above spreader events.

Fundamentally, the surge took place because the data was not correctly analysed and actioned. The country was living in a false sense of euphoria, which a simple analysis of data would have punctured. This perhaps was the prime reason for the pandemic assuming deadly proportions. On 01 April, India registered 81,441 new cases of Covid 19, which should have been a wake up call for all the bureaucrats posted in the health ministry of the Centre and the States. The whole of March had seen a constant doubling of cases every ten days, nearing the peak of the first wave and there was nothing to indicate that the trend was reversing. This was the time to have imposed a lockdown across the country, or at least in all the severely impacted states. Not doing so resulted in the number of new cases doubling in 10 days to 1,69,914 on 11 April, then doubling again to 3,15,802 fresh cases on 21 April, till they finally peaked at 4,14,433 cases on 6 May. India’s success story in dealing with the pandemic in the first wave had tragically been reversed, which in turn overstretched the health infrastructure. Oxygen became a short supply item, beds in hospital with ventilators were not available and people were left to fend for themselves on their own. This was an avoidable tragedy.

It would be wrong, however, to blame the surge entirely on the farmers agitation, the Kumbh Mela and the elections, though undoubtedly these events added on to the sickness tally. The top six states with the highest number of Covid-19 cases on 01 June 2021 were Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Odisha (Figure 2). Of these, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Odisha did not have elections and were not affected either by the farmers agitation or by the Kumbh Mela. 20 days later, on 20 June 2021, the top six states, in terms of total number of Covid-19 cases were Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha (Figure 3).

FIGURE 2

SIX STATES WITH 70% OF COVID-19 CASES

 

FIGURE 3

SIX STATES WITH 76 % OF COVID-19 CASES

Ultimately, the prime causative factor for a surge in cases had much to with public apathy, lack of monitoring of the data on daily fresh cases of Covid-19 by the health authorities, both in the States and in the Centre, and in not heeding the warning signals that had come from other parts of the globe, where the second wave had caused huge damage. An unescapable conclusion is that the bureaucrats in the health ministry, both in the Centre and in the States, were culpable in not discharging their mandated functions.

It is also instructive to observe how different states have handled the pandemic. To carry out an assessment based on uniform parameters, the number of active Covid-19 cases per million population base, has been taken. The data has been taken from two time lines—01 June 2020 and 20 June 2020, each time line giving out the number of active Covid-19 cases in each state, per million population. Statistics are a more reliable indicator than gut instincts which are based on individual biases. Looking at the data of 01 June 2020, the top eight performing states in the battle against the pandemic, with the least number of Covid-19 active cases, were Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana, in that order, with the total active cases for that date per million population, being 128, 156, 227, 269, 503, 517, 581 and 652 respectively (Figure 3). The bottom eight states, with the maximum number of active cases per million population for 01 June 2021 (shown in brackets), indicating poor control over the pandemic are Kerala (5758), Sikkim (5744), Karnataka (4594), Tamil Nadu (3844), Goa (3268), Manipur (2747) Mizoram (2516) and Uttarakhand (2487) (Figure 4).

FIGURE 4

COVID-19 CASES IN STATES OF INDIA

(Per million population base

A change observed 20 days later, on 20 June 2020, indicates the eight states with the lowest Covid-19 rates per million population base, as Uttar Pradesh (19), Bihar (25), Madhya Pradesh (25), Rajasthan (37), Jharkhand (40), Haryana (87), Gujarat (95). and Delhi (110). It would be observed that these were the top eight performing states in terms of minimum number of active Covid-19 cases on 01 June, and 20 days later, they remained in the top eight, with a further dramatic reduction of active cases.

On 20 June, the eight states at the bottom of the list were Sikkim (3853), Manipur (3004), Kerala (2943), Mizoram (2777), Goa (2042), Karnataka (1857), Arunachal Pradesh (1582) and Meghalaya (1349). Tamil Nadu, which was part of the bottom eight, had a distinct reduction in the number of active cases during these twenty days, from a whopping 3,844 cases per million to just 884 cases per million.

What is of concern though, are the states which have not been able to register a drop in cases in these 20 days. Andhra Pradesh, which had 37,044 active cases on 01 June, saw a further surge, with the state recording 63,068 active cases on 20 June. Similarly, Mizoram saw a marginal increase in the total number of active cases from 3145 to 3471 and Manipur saw an increase of cases from 8791 to 9613. In all other cases, there has been a decline, though the percentage of decline varies from state to state (Figure 5).  The data for Union Territories of India, is shown in Figure 6.

FIGURE 5

PERFORMANCE OF STATES IN CONTROLLING THE VIRUS

FIGURE 6

PERFORMANCE OF UNION TERRITORIES

(Cases per million population)

Preparing for the Third Wave

With the Second Wave having peaked in India, there are indications that the country will be impacted by the Third Wave, with some experts opining that this could take place in the next 12 to 16 weeks.^[10] More importantly, it is likely that the virus may become a permanent fixture of our lives and we would have to deal with it. Speaking on this issue, WHO Emergencies Director, Dr Mike Ryan, stated in a press briefing in Geneva on 14 May 2020 that… “this virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and may never go away.” Dr Ryan then added that “we have to come to terms with the virus, just as we have come to terms with diseases like HIV”.^[11]

To deal with the pandemic, Dr Randeep Guleria, Director, All India Institute Of Medical Science (AIIMS), New Delhi, spoke of the need to strengthen the public health system, and focus on the lessons we have learnt from the past. He stressed on the need to upgrade the health system, and asserted that with changing times, we have to change our public health system, through initiatives like the Ayushman Bharat-PMJAY (Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana), which have made a huge difference as far as health care is concerned.^[12]

The need for the Centre and the States to work in unison on issues of health is now becoming paramount, to enable uniformity of policies and protocols, provision of equitable facilities to all sections of society and to fight jointly against pandemics. As of now, health is a subject on the State List in the Indian Constitution. To deal with the challenges in providing robust and efficient health care across the country and to enable more effective handling of pandemics, the time has come to place Health on the Concurrent List of the Constitution. The States would have to be taken on board before a Constitutional Amendment is mooted, but this is a matter which needs to be addressed at the earliest.

Vaccinating the Nation

Vaccination would perhaps form the backbone of the anti-Covid strategy. On the first day of the Centre’s new Covid-19 vaccination policy, on 21 June, a total of 88.09 lakh people were vaccinated.^[13] This was unprecedented and a mention of this was also made by the prime Minister in his “Mann Ki Baat” programme on All India Radio, on 27 June. With this, India’s cumulative COVID-19 vaccination coverage is now over 28 crore.^[14] In an affidavit filed before the Supreme Court, the Centre has stated that 135 crore doses of COVID-19 vaccines will be available in India between August to December 2021 from five Covid-19 vaccines.^[15] This would enable vaccination of the majority of the country by the end of the year. The challenge to vaccinate the children will however remain, till a suitable vaccine for children of all ages is developed.

Responsibility of Individuals and Society

The fight against the pandemic is by no means over and without the cooperation of the public, it cannot be won. The public has been sensitised on the need to maintain social distancing, washing hands, using face masks etc, but enforcement measures are still lax. There is a need to strengthen the institutional framework to ensure compliance of health safety measures. Merely getting vaccinated is not enough. Each individual is responsible to ensure appropriate conduct and to abide by the restrictions laid down, to prevent and restrict the spread of the pandemic.

An important aspect for individuals, besides personal hygiene and wearing of masks in public spaces is being cognisant of the action to be taken if one contracts the disease. Early detection assumes great importance as that will enable the safe treatment of the disease in home isolation. Cases which have been detected soon after occurrence will rarely require hospitalisation or oxygen and ventilator support. A simple means of early detection is through a check of body temperature once a day with a thermometer. This can be a life saver as other symptoms may take a few days to develop, by which time the disease can take on a more sinister form. If the thermometer shows an above normal body temperature, it would be prudent to check for the virus, the results for which can be made available within a day. A daily temperature check should hence form part of preventive measures in each family. Thereafter, should the test for the virus be positive, then immediate medical assistance should be sought, which can be safely done in home isolation.

Within groups, it is important to create an environment where Covid protocols are followed and their breach is frowned upon. Help groups need to be formed to assist those who are old and who are living without family support. Health workers and the medical staff need to be given the full unstinting support of individuals and groups, as they form the spearhead of the fight against the pandemic.

Action by the State

Each state government must get its act together and be prepared to combat the third wave of the disease. The states have time now to rectify the shortcomings observed in tackling the second wave, and they must do so on a war footing. They cannot abdicate their role and pass the buck to the Centre when things get difficult for them.

Data analysis at the national, state, and lower levels must be done by the respective officials responsible for health, both in the Centre and the States. The Centre must lay down a policy for declaring various stages of health emergencies, from Stage 1, which would be cautionary, to Stage 5 which would require maximum restrictions. This should be based on the number of Covid cases occurring in a state, for a population base of 100,000. The data of individuals impacted with the pandemic must be kept at the district, state and national level, to ensure coverage at the lowest level, and enable prompt action to be taken to isolate the areas that are impacted. The advantage of such a system is that the concerned health officials and the political authority would be forced to take action as the cases in a state, district, tehsil or village level start rising. Failure to do so would imply abdication of duty, for which concerned individuals would be held accountable.

Role of the Media and Political Parties

Both the media and the political parties have an important role to play in dealing with the pandemic. For the media, it is important that sensationalism is avoided as it creates unnecessary fear and panic in society. It is also the job of the media to keep a track of Covid cases and to highlight those areas where the officials responsible for health are falling short of performing their duties.

The Political parties also need to fight the pandemic as one and not resort to unnecessary mudslinging at each other. The fight against the pandemic must be taken as a national priority, and not for political one-upmanship. For a period of one year, if not more, there is a need to ban all political gatherings above 50 people, and to similarly restrict all religious and social events, as also prohibit any strikes or dharnas. This would require all political parties coming together and lending their support on this issue, if it is to become a reality. Through such action, the pandemic can be controlled in a faster time frame.

Conclusion

India is passing through a critical phase in its history, being impacted with a pandemic, while facing huge challenges on the security front from two inimical neighbours and at the same time, having to deal with a severe economic and human crisis. This is a time for unity and putting our differences aside. History will judge us whether we, as a society, were wise enough to rise to the occasion.

References:

^[1] World Health Organization. Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Situation Report – 1. 2020. Available from: https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/330760. (The report is no longer available on the internet).

^[2] https://indianexpress.com/article/world/who-coronavirus-pandemic-6309685/

^[3] https://in.news.yahoo.com/researchers-iit-delhi-found-covid-055459485.html

^[4] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9716531/More-proof-support-lab-leak-theory-China-DELETED-samples-earliest-patients.html

^[5] The details of the work done by this group are available in their website https://drasticresearch.org/the-team/

^[6] https://www.livemint.com/economy/gdp-shrinks-7-3-in-fy21-on-covid-first-wave-impact-11622463848438.html

^[7] Data for the month culled from Worldometer, available at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

^[8] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/farmer-protest-roads-should-not-be-blocked-say-supreme-court-2410018

^[9] https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/dehradun-news/91-million-thronged-mahakumbh-despite-covid-19-surge-govt-data-101619729096750.html

^[10] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57577138

^[11] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52643682

^[12] https://www.india.com/news/india/aiims-director-randeep-guleria-warning-third-wave-of-covid-delta-plus-variant-covid-19-cases-in-india-4773880/

^[13] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-vaccinates-record-52-lakh-people-in-one-day-2468935

^[14] Ibid

^[15] https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/video/only-135-crore-vaccines-to-be-available-by-december-says-centre-1820036-2021-06-27

Introduction

Naturally occurring novel virus Covid-19 has recognised that human and health security is no longer synonymous with just health sciences. The conception, promotion and care of life (bios) demands an expanded umbrella of health sciences to evolve and institutionalise bio-governance, bio-politics and bio-power, encompassing all domains which potentially bio-marginalise (prevent life to flourish) the human security and well-being. The realm of health security constitutes all endangering factors like natural disasters, outbreaks, pandemics, emerging infectious diseases (EID), misuse of antibiotics leading to unpredictable microbial resistances, critical pharmaceutical, medical supply chain safety, medical and health information cyber-biosecurity, bio-terrorism, climate change, rapid urbanisation, population growth, food security, water security, and social media (SM) misinformation etc, which actively modulate the wellness and health of human populations. A country that blooms and flies high with a vibrant democracy, should have a smart-public health system that provides an ecosystem for its beings to evolve their lives to full potential.

A live, vibrant, ever evolving, flexible, resilient, participatory, engaging public health system must have the well-being of its citizens at its core—a system melting boundaries between different stakeholders, dissolving the idea of segmented hierarchical health system with defined and restricted boundaries at various levels. The boundaries in the health system collage, of participatory responsibilities and accountabilities of all the stakeholders need to dissolve to develop one aesthetic scenery where all merges and gels well with each other at every level of coordination, management and governance. The New India leadership can evolve and embrace this idea of fit, smart and healthy public health systems in India which will take health, wellbeing, and happiness index of nation to the next level. The idea of New India is now to build systems that are lively and which co-evolve with evolving human lives and develop on opportunities instead of breaking at challenges.

This article unfolds various domains with suggestions which may be discussed to develop a futuristic, holistic, comprehensive and integrated public health ecosystem in India. It has suggested a Neuron Model for Public Health Emergency. The author hopes to energise readers to become more aware, active and participatory on issues related to human and health security at local, regional, national, international and global level.

Health first approach

Nation’s well-being must be measured by health (physical, mental and social) of its population, quality of its healthcare policy and programmes, availability of health facilities and qualified and motivated healthcare workforce. Recent epidemic shows the dependency of economic growth and geopolitical status of any country critically on healthcare supremacy. For futuristic nations, health security is one of topmost priority. Health first approach calls for prioritisation of   health care structure of any country for present challenges and future risks that incorporates institutionalised comprehensive health policies, scaling up of health care resources, intensive biomedical research, sustainable policies and efficient coordination between stakeholders, with high sense of national priority and commitment.

Establishment of National Institute for Global Health Science and Security:

The institute will conduct courses and research to understand the evolving national and global health challenges.  The institute will work in collaboration with the Indian government, international health, agriculture and defence ministries and organisations to collaborate for preparedness for national and transnational disease threats, and develop economic benefits, international security and diplomacy by promoting health research, technologies and services. It will translate research into knowledge products, providing policy analysis and technical support related to the National Health Security, develop research and training for foreign affairs experts on health and research required in global health diplomacy, develop education and training materials for multi-sectoral engagement in the response to biological threats for military and health professionals etc. Courses on global health diplomacy, global health security, emerging infectious diseases, public health management, disease surveillance, bio-safety and biosecurity etc. can be institutionalised as can diploma training in medical and paramedical sciences for developing the human resource and assistance required in rural and primary health care.

Defence Establishment and Participation in Health Security to improve National Capabilities to Prevent, Detect and Respond to Infectious Disease Threats

India’s defence and national security strategy is primarily focused on territorial and border disputes, countering and combating left wing extremism (LWE), insurgency in the North Eastern States and security and stability in Jammu and Kashmir. The non-traditional security threats like pandemics, emerging infectious diseases, and proliferation of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and high yield Explosives (CBRNE) weapons have to yet find a place in India’s national security strategy, planning and response. Threat of bio-incidents both naturally occurring and manufactured epidemics through the use biological weapon are equally evolving and alarming. Currently, without defined guidelines and protocols on how to address bio-incidents, the counter response and activities rely on ad-hoc responses of questionable utility. The structural and functional gaps between health security, bio-security and bio-defence has caused a damage to human security as we are not able to efficiently harness and incorporate the scientific capabilities, technological innovations for governance and policies related to bio-incidents. India needs to develop a National Biological Security Strategy (NBSS)^[1] and National Health Security Act^[2] and integrate both in India’s National Security Strategy (NSS) for a comprehensive, holistic biological-socio-economic security approach which addresses threats emanating from both traditional (or military) and non-traditional (or non-military) sources. Post COVID-19, the role of military in national, international and global health security activities can be extended with more extensive networks of bio-intelligence and bio-surveillance, improving the national capabilities to prevent, detect, and respond to natural and simulated bio-incidents.

Establishing a Strict Bio-risk Assessment and Management Guidelines in Health, Veterinary and Agriculture Research to be Complied by all Stakeholders

Bio-safety involves procedures and techniques to prevent an accidental release of bio-agent; biosecurity involves accountability measures and procedures to protect bio-agents from unauthorised access, misuse, thievery for an intentional release. Dual use research that aims to provide knowledge for health security could be misapplied to threaten safety of health, agricultural crops, live stocks and the environment. Without proper guidance, biosafety, biosecurity, and dual use research can become a risk to human life. Life sciences, molecular biology, bio-technology, bio-engineering, genetic engineering, bio-informatics and synthetic biology researches and tools have become common methods in research laboratories^[3]. DIY-bio (Do it Yourself Biology), emerging bio-technology program and bio-technology start up are expected to develop futuristic technologies and therapies, but at the same time potential risks of these technologies need to be minimised. Genetically Modified Organisms, gene therapy, induced-Pluripotent Stem Cell (iPS), Gain of Function (GoF) and CRISPR (clusters of regularly interspersed short palindromic repeats) will be star technologies in future providing therapeutic solutions. Futuristic vision of public-health research involves nurturing responsible future generation scientists and developing an effective bio-risk assessment and management guidelines to be complied by all the engaged stakeholders.

Developing Decentralised and Participatory Public Health

Neighbourhood Health Clinics (NCs) should be led by community leaders to complement and micromanage the activities of central-state-district health initiatives^[4]. A shift in health governance and policy is required for higher level of micro and higher levels of governance in cities and villages. The local parliament of elected leaders and network of mini health centres at municipality, city council and gram panchayat level will provide a voice and platform for elected leaders, who are often excluded from high-level decision-making to bolster local health capacities. Strong city and village leadership and engagement network is a must for resilient strategic preparedness network.

Expanding the role of Civil Society Organisations (CSOs)

Margaret Chan, Director General, WHO in 2007, highlighted the role of CSOs, stating, “Given the growing complexity of these health and security challenges and the response required, these issues concern not only governments, but also international organisations, civil society and the business community. Recognising this, the World Health Organization is making the world more secure by working in close collaboration with all concerned”. Civil Society Organisations include community-based organisations, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), charitable organisations, labor unions, indigenous groups, faith-based organisations, professional associations, and foundations. With their grassroots presence, CSOs can more effectively help to address health security and health systems challenges and help community resource utilisation in healthcare management. India needs to strengthen CSOs which supplement and fill health systems gaps, enabling governments to micromanage the medical emergency like the Covid-19 outbreak. Prepared CSOs will:

• Support with the establishment of local outbreak response teams for coordinating the national response.
• develop local surveillance and response systems to detect, track and manage disease.
• Manage maintenance of safe health care services (e.g., local isolation centre for patients), educate and train on infection control and prevention procedures.
• Support the administration of vaccines, diagnostic and therapeutics.
• MobiliSe and train to build a wide-range of community health workforce
• Generate finances and resources for response efforts through innovative funding mechanisms.

Strengthening Public Institutions in Fighting Zoonotic Infections and Antimicrobial resistance (AMR)

The basics of preventing deadly epidemics and pandemics involves understanding the origin and dynamics of human-pathogen-animal-environment interactions. Recent infectious diseases like Ebola virus disease, influenza H1N1 and Covid-19 are notably linked to animals such as bat and swine. There is a need to implement one health approach i.e a collaborative, multi-sectoral, and trans-disciplinary approach, working at the local, regional, national, and global levels, with the goal of achieving optimal health outcomes recognising the interconnection between people, animals, plants, and their shared environment^[5]. Department of Health Research (DHR) needs to strengthen infrastructure, human resource for health research, research governance, technology development for prevention and management of epidemics/outbreaks. Network of laboratories for surveillance, rapid diagnosis, and effective strategies to neutralise and eventually control and prevent the spread of known/unknown/emerging highly infectious diseases of public & global concern are required. Currently, India has only 2 BSL4 (Bio safety level) facilities—National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune, and National Institute of High Security Animal Diseases (NIHSAD), Bhopal, for research, diagnosis and control of exotic and emerging animal diseases.  Increasing capabilities and re-calibrating the priorities of National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), ICAR-Indian Veterinary Research Institute (IVRI), National Institute of Virology in Pune (NIV) and Defence Research & Development Establishment (DRDE) would help prevent, reduce and prepare with zoonotic infections in the future.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) can become the next pandemic as superbugs (bacteria that are resistant to all known antibiotics) will hinder the fight against the many biological infections with our existing range of antibiotics. Collaborative efforts for prudent use antibiotics, preserving the antibiotics that do work, banning medically important antibiotics in food production (three in four antibiotics consumed worldwide are used in food animals), investing in the development of new antibiotics, new treatments for drug-resistant infections can alleviate the AMR crisis.

Harnessing and Integrating Technology and Innovation in Public Health System: Digital Technologies to Improve PHCs

A virus knows no borders, and neither do the digital technologies and data. The penetration and reach of mobile devices have surpassed other infrastructures like electricity, roads and healthcare resources. Mobile devices and networks are present in resource-limited regions where medical infrastructure, equipment and services are unavailable. Public health systems need to align and integrate digital technologies to build online care pathways that rapidly link the widespread diagnosis with digital symptom checkers, contact tracing, epidemiological intelligence and long term clinical followup. With digitalisation of public health systems and integration of advanced technologies, ethical frameworks and systems for storage and analysis, data protection and confidentiality need to be evolved.

Key examples of digital technologies deployed in public-health interventions for the COVID-19^[6]

• Machine learning used for Web-based epidemic intelligence tools and online syndromic surveillance
• Survey apps and websites used for Symptom reporting
• Data extraction and visualization used for Data dashboards
• Connected diagnostic device used for Point-of-care diagnosis
• Sensors including wearables used for Febrile symptoms checking
• Machine learning used for medical image analysis
• Smartphone app, low-power Bluetooth technology used for Digital contact tracing
• Mobile-phone-location data used for Mobility-pattern analysis
• Social-media platforms used for Targeted communication
• Online search engine used for Prioritised information
• Chat-bot used for Personalised information
• Tele-conferencing used for telemedicine, referral

Further, post Covid-19, technological intervention can revolutionise the efficacy of traditional health care systems. However, affordability and public access of such technological advancement must be regulated. The prominent technological solutions could be classified as below:

• Precision medicines for individual specific treatment methodologies
• Nanotechnology for target specific drug delivery, efficient sensing and imaging, broad spectrum antibiotics and organ regeneration
• Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) for interconnected communication between biomedical machines, vitals monitors and wearable devices with the help of application and IT infrastructure. This will facilitate virtual interaction patients to their physicians and allowing the transfer of medical data over a secure network.
• Big data for management of healthcare data, genomics and pharmacogenomics data to improve decision-making.
• Block Chain for distributed, decentralised and secured database management system that aims to create digital identification, tracking healthcare related object and secure decentralising database.
• 3D Bio-printing for distantly development of surgical implants, tools, orthopaedic and dental implants.
• Drones for remotely onsite distribution of of drugs, vaccines, blood, plasma and healthcare equipment in accident sites and hilly terrains.
• Robotics for assistance remote controlled precision surgeries assisting medical staff patients in diagnostics and maintaining supply chains.
• Mobile health with micro-fluidic Lab-on-a-Chip technology for rapid diagnosis, better patient monitoring, and spatiotemporal tracking capability.
• One Digital Health ecosystem (National health card for National Health Service digital records). One Nation, One Health and One National Health card for a unified digitally transformed health ecosystem. This will help in understanding the intrinsic complexity of hath care and enable development of novel healthcare solutions.

Expanding the role of Community Health Workers (CHWs)

The traditional roles of CHWs includes health education, routine immunisation, supporting maternal and child health, family planning and reproductive health activities, and surveillance, contact tracing for communicable diseases etc. During Covid-19, in an overwhelming, overstretched health system, CHWs shifted the hospital-centred care to community-centred care. Post Covid-19, recalibration of our future efforts to strengthen resilient public health systems and health emergency preparedness involves expanding and supporting CHWs. CHWs and adequately trained Community Health Volunteers (CHVs) and Village Health Volunteers (VHVs) will facilitate health education including promotion of new normal behaviours, measures to prevent and control virus, assist in surveillance, contact tracing and quarantine and maintain essential health services etc. CHWs need to be recognised as an integral part of the primary health care system and local authorities need to ensure that adequate level of training, resources, incentives and support is allocated to sustain the enthusiasm of CHWs^[7].

Transformational leadership willing to pay for public health policies

The effectiveness and performance of a nation’s health system is highly dependent on government leaders as they propose and decide to invest for resources development for public system. Leader’s personality, leadership style, goal alignment, communication skills and team building ability highly influences the public health decisions. Leaders who are future-oriented and who believe in their ability and competence to improve the quality of their society, create more values for future generations and generate more goodwill for society. Reportedly, these leaders tend to invest more in public health to bring well-being and goodwill for their citizens^[8]. In addition, positive perceived social support by citizens moderates and drives futuristic leadership model. The politics of difference lies in futuristic investment in public health and the ideal community trust and support the leader’s policy.

Gender Inclusive Engagement Pattern in Health System Governance

Health system governance should be human-centric and barrier-free, inclusive, non-discriminatory with a tailored and targeted response. The social, economic and long-term health consequences, disproportionately impact the lives of women and girls. Taking lessons from Covid-19 response and related health emergencies, a more fair, inclusive, gendered lens is required for health system governance^[9].

Development of Private Sector and Donor Participation in Healthcare System

An initiative to involve private sectors, individuals, foreign assistance for collaborative grants, aids, loans, etc, must be modelled to strengthen healthcare infrastructure. The challenges posed by emerging health threats in the 21st century requires collaborative network of cooperation. Appropriate generation and mobilisation of resources requires curbing the corruption, misuse and abuse of financial support and assistance in the health sector. India needs to enhance monitoring measures to ensure effective utilisation of finances and collaboration to prepare and respond to future challenges.

Integration of Ayurveda in Health-care Delivery System

Turning Ayurveda into evidence-based medicine could change the medical philosophy and treatment to an inclusive, affordable, individualised and holistic healthcare. Scientific reliability of Ayurveda, education, research, clinical practice, and public health and administration interventions will facilitate integration with existing public health system. This will help promote health, wellness lifestyle, improve disease prevention and increase access and delivery of health services. An integrated model with preventive, curative, and promotive health care strategy will contribute tremendously in community health.

Value Creation through Next-generation Business Model

Post Covid-19, India needs to develop innovative business models with fresh perspective to observe growth and deliver better care for individuals. The integration of innovation in healthcare model, rewiring of organisations for speed and efficiency and to deliver quality care helping both healthcare players and patients will be needed.

Building a Neuron Model for Public Health Emergency

An integrated model for rapid, defined and efficient reception and communication of response signals among stakeholders to prepare and respond to medical health emergencies is shown in the diagram (Figure 1). The global bio-threats are received by receptor agencies like the WHO, the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA), Biological Weapon Convention Implementation Support Unit (BWCISU), Indian embassies, information network in cooperation with foreign intelligence agencies, military intelligence, Intelligence bureau, international intelligence units (Bio-intelligence and Bio-surveillance). The information received is processed and risk-assessed by the National Institute for Global Health Sciences and security (NIGHSS), as proposed in this paper) and the Defense Research Laboratory (DRL, BSL-4 Level, to be developed as proposed in this paper). The information and drafts guideline, according to threat and risk assessment, is received by the central decision command headed by the Prime Minister and which includes as its members, the Defense Minister, Minister of External Affairs, National Security Advisor (NSA), Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), and the three Service Chiefs. The decision made by the central decision command is communicated to President, the three Service Chiefs, Parliamentary Committees, leader of opposition, state governors, cabinet & ministers, planning commission, and regulating agencies to broadcast information to coordinate market for supply, production and distribution of drugs and life support systems efficiently, using big data management system, block chain technology etc.

Receiving the information, the state governments coordinates and functions with district and community stakeholders for delivery of efficient governance, using technologies like Internet of Medical Things (IoMT), telecommunication, block chain technology, e-consultation, drones & robotics etc. The neuronal communication is bidirectional i.e. reception of signal, and delivery of response from top to bottom or bottom to top is as per the stimulus (information) available. All the bio-health data will be collected in mega National Biomedical Database (depository for pathological, pharmacological, genomic, serological toxico genomics data) for efficient tracking and feedback system in the proposed neuron model.

Figure 1: Neuron Model for Public Health Emergency

Conclusion

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”- Charles Dickens.

Covid-19 has expanded the understanding and redefined the scope of public health system and community. During the pandemic, the world embraced a holistic approach of health security, an area which was traditionally seen with myopic vision and scope. The global engagements to ensure public health cooperation, interconnectedness between science, public health, international economics, politics and policy are now understood to be important areas of public health. Hence, the public health apparatus must be equipped with comprehensive and integrated, proactive governance measures which recognise all the dimensions and respond to the evolving health challenges. Post Covid-19, public health systems need to return with a respect and responsibility towards life’s existence with a fully functioning inclusive healthcare system with evolved work processes and strengthened institutions beyond inequalities, and discriminatory hierarchies. The core strength of public health system lies in strengthening traditional aspects of public health such as hygiene, disease detection and prevention measures, screening and immunisation and health promotion in national programme. These strengthened resources and frameworsk like diagnostic centre, surveillance measures and immunisation networks for national programme for preventable diseases like tuberculosis, polio, measles etc can be repurposed for unseen outbreak of infectious diseases.

Coming back stronger, India needs to generate the vision for a lively public healthcare ecosystem which dynamically evolves, adapts, lives, acts and complies to modern society and brings the triumph of the human spirit.

Author Brief Bio: Dr Aakansha Bhawsar is a Scientist at the Division of Basic Medical Sciences, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), Headquarters in New Delhi.

References:

^[1] https://chintan.indiafoundation.in/articles/national-biological-security-strategy-a-way-forward/

^[2] https://chintan.indiafoundation.in/articles/india-needs-national-health-security-act/

^[3] https://indiafoundation.in/articles-and-commentaries/science-of-biological-warfare-and-biopreparedness/

^[4] https://chintan.indiafoundation.in/articles/neighborhood-health-clinics-an-improvised-and-micromanaged-model-for-evolving-local-bodies-led-neighborhood-clinics-in-india/

^[5] https://www.cdc.gov/onehealth/basics/index.html

^[6]  Budd, J., Miller, B.S., Manning, E.M. et al. Digital technologies in the public-health response to COVID-19. Nat Med 26, 1183–1192 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-1011-4

^[7] Supriya Bezbaruah, Polly Wallace, Masahiro Zakoji, Wagawatta Liyanage, Sugandhika Padmini Perera, Masaya Kato, Roles of community health workers in advancing health security and resilient health systems: emerging lessons from the COVID-19 response in the South-East Asia Region, WHO South-East Asia Journal of Public Health, 2021, Volume 10, Issue 3, Page 41-48.

^[8] Wang J, Chou TP, Chen CP, Bu X. Leaders’ Future Orientation and Public Health Investment Intention: A Moderated Mediation Model of Self-Efficacy and Perceived Social Support. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17(18):6922. Published 2020 Sep 22. doi:10.3390/ijerph17186922

^[9] https://chintan.indiafoundation.in/articles/rethinking-a-gender-inclusive-engagement-pattern-in-health-system-governance/

“No longer were there individual destinies; only a collective destiny, made of plague and emotions, shared by all.” (from “The Plague” by Albert Camus)

A Brief Backdrop

December 31, 2019 ushered in a new normal, irrevocably changing daily dynamics. A special edition virus from Wuhan in China – the SARS-CoV-2, a Novel coronavirus, which is classified as the seventh member of the family Coronaviridae, sub family Orthocoronavirinae^[1] – was introduced to the world. It proceeded to take over our routines, making us slaves to masks, sanitisers, and panic.  This virus family are a group of zoonotic viruses usually transmitted to humans through contact with infected animals, mainly bats and snakes, which are considered the natural reservoir of most coronaviruses, and which gave rise to the initial surmise that COVID-19 originated from a wet market in Huanan, Wuhan, which was said to be the ground zero for the epidemic. More on that shortly.

A study of the lipid molecules of these viruses shows that molecules such as caveolins, clathrins and dynamin have a fundamental role in their entry into hosts and targeting host lipids. COVID-19 binds the angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 receptor, the ACE2, on the membrane host cell to enable it to infect the host cell in tandem with an intracellular protein—protease TMPRSS2.^[2] According to Genome sequencing the closest similarity was between the COVID-19 genomes and the bat CoV. Results revealed that all COVID-19 strains were similar, compared with other strains related to the same family. COVID-19 also possesses accessory proteins that interfere with the host’s distinctive immune response, including spike (S) glycoprotein, small envelope (E) protein, matrix (M) protein and nucleocapsid (N) protein.

Given the extensive research on the virus and its comprehensive genome sequencing, the possibility of a synthetic virus has currency; especially as the Chinese authorities had chosen to cloud and obfuscate information about the pandemic, which was well in evidence by early November 2019, terming it an alt right conspiracy theory. A recent WHO-led team to probe the origins of the pandemic, which has led so far to the death of 3,697,151 people, and 171,708,011 confirmed cases of the SARS-COV-2 infection^[3] (figures according to assessments have been grossly under reported), stated that their finding were inconclusive. This was a quantifiable deviation from the earlier zoonotic theory put out by WHO, of the virus species-jumping and causing the SARS-CoV-2 mutation.

The Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), which has a P4 laboratory, had spent decades researching and collecting coronaviruses. Of note is the RaTG13 virus, procured from the mines in Mojiang after many miners were infected over 7 years ago. This was confirmed by Shi Zhengli, Chief virologist in WIV in November 2020 and again in February 2021. The possibility has now been admitted, with the qualifier that it remains less likely, that the virus has been sequenced and synthesised. The apprehension that WIV was actively testing these viruses to determine their ability to infect people as well as synthesise mutations is now a cause of serious international worry. China is alleged to have initiated a massive cover up programme, and co-opted not only members of the WHO, but also scientists—for example Peter Daskzak, the president of the Eco Health Alliance of New York, who managed to get scores of signatures for a letter, published in the prestigious medical journal Lancet about the natural origins of the virus—and silenced dissenting voices like Chinese virologist Li Meng Yan. Actual disclosures about the alleged Chinese coverup came from a group of amateur internet sleuths from around the globe, who called themselves the DRASTIC – Decentralised Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating Covid. A central figure of the group was the “Seeker”, an Indian web crawler, who has kept his identity hidden. Their findings have re-generated global interest and misgivings against China.^[4]

President Biden has asked for a report on China’s and the WIV’s role in the current pandemic within 90 days. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases and the White House Advisor on health, has stated that he is not completely convinced about the natural origins of the Corona virus, and US Health Secretary, Xavier Becerra, casting doubt on the Chinese claims about the natural origins of the virus, said “not only was a year stolen from our lives, it has stolen a million lives.”^[5]

Consequences of Covid

A year and a half have also been stolen from our lives, and in India, we are paying an extortionate cost for a crisis not of our making. Our internal challenges range from human tragedy, to the shrinkage of the economy, impact on security forces, and a ravaged administration which has been stretched to its limits. Chinese dissembling has been one of the primary parameters which has impacted on the larger internal security of the country, by putting it into a pandemic vortex. While globally the impact has been felt, it is India, which shares lengthy uneasy borders with China, that needs to be most alive to the possibility of cross border transmissions of virus—be they inadvertent or inimical. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, India will be witness to an  overwhelming 10 lakh deaths from COVID-19 by 01 August 2021.^[6] The official death rate is around 3.5 lakhs, a figure that analysts claim is far from reality, which is around 3-5X times higher. Critics of the present government, who were waiting for an opportune moment to strike, are claiming that Prime Minister Modi’s Government is responsible for presiding over a national catastrophe, which has damaged both the economy and the psyche of the nation.

The Dangers of Complacency

There was, unfortunately, a feeling of complacency within the government, as was epitomised by Minister of Health Harsh Vardhan’s  statement that India was in the “endgame” of the epidemic, which resulted as a consequence in repeated warnings of the dangers of a second wave and the emergence of new strains gaining no traction. This was despite the fact that Indian Council of Medical Research had conducted a serosurvey by January 2021, which showed that only 21% of the population had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Premature optimism on part of some of the ministers and officials helming the anti-COVID task forces has led to the near breakdown of health care services in both the first and second waves of the pandemic. Our quick declaration of victory against the virus led to criminal lack of preparedness for the second wave, which had been predicted by all except a few mathematical models like SUTRA^[7], which have been comprehensively debunked^[8]. This led to shortages in drugs and oxygen, generating instances (which translated into visuals) of needless, painful deaths, summary burials, and multiple cremations, which have seriously tarnished India’s global image. While India’s response to the first Covid wave made it a bellwether for other countries to follow, the second wave has certainly shaken India’s image abroad. The international media/global community have been quick to castigate the surge in cases as a serious policy failure, and opposition parties within India have used the second wave as a launching pad to hurl political invective against the government: poor planning, lack of deliverables, and complacency. Even if the diatribes of the opposition and a section of the western media are ignored as motivated, institutional complacency has possibly risen to the top of the list of internal threats faced by the country, which needs expeditious remedial action.

The Ticking Bomb of Mutations

Another issue that the ‘complacency factor’ did not take into account was the propensity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to acquire new genetic mutations that allow it to evade immune responses, to hinder herd immunity, which would normally be acquired through mass vaccination. In such mutations, the virus sheds tiny bits of its genome under natural evolutionary pressure, making it smaller and more resilient, causing surges which signify higher person-to-person transmission. The deletion mutations affect the spike protein in the virus which causes major surges in community transmission. A ten-fold increase in one such mutation—known as deletion mutation B. 1. 617.2—caused the second surge between February 2021 (1.1%) to April 2021 (15%), in India and is still continuing unabated.

There was irrefutable evidence that the B.1.617.2 variant, first identified in India, could be far more transmissible than even the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in Britain, or the B.1. 351 variant, first identified in South Africa, which contributed to some of the deadliest surges around the world. These mutations were causing vaccination break throughs—infections post vaccination—though the number was negligible.

The World Health Organisation on May 10 classified B.1.617.2 as   a variant of global concern^[9]. The mutations showed that variants with higher transmissibility were a major source of danger to people without immunity either from vaccination or prior infection, even if the variant is no more deadly than previous versions of the virus. The transmissibility of the virus was evidenced by the emergence of a new Vietnamese variant, which, according to the Vietnam Health Minister Nguyen Thanh Long, is a combination of the strains identified in India and the United Kingdom.^[10] The minister warned that the new variant was more transmissible than the previous ones and spreads faster by air, and due to its modified spike proteins, could cause greater damage. Some traces of the Vietnam virus have been found in the North East of India, and the genome sequencing is under way. The proclivity of the virus to mutate underscores its continuing menace. While vaccination breakthroughs with the new variants are occurring, vaccination fortunately still does offer a quantifiable shield against serious infections and brings down the CFR considerably.

The Vaccination Conundrum

This brings up issue of the need for an accelerated vaccination drive. As of now, the percentage of people vaccinated in India is less than 18%, and the country’s share of global active coronavirus cases now stand at 19.08 per cent (one in 5)^[11]. The two major vaccine manufacturers in India, Serum Institute of India (SII) and Bharat Biotech, which produce Covishield and Covaxin respectively, can manufacture around 90 million doses a month. At this pace, vaccinating 840 million people who make up the 18+ population in India (two doses each) will take over 19 months! Urgent imports of Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and Sputnik V have been initiated, but India is competing against burgeoning international demand. Newer vaccines, including a nasal spray are being  developed, but R&D  and three phased trials are time consuming, which is a matter of grave concern, given the speed of mutations. Hence, despite ramping up local production, indigenous R&D, and importing of vaccines, the goal of 70% vaccination, which is a sine qua non for herd immunity, seems a tall order. Moreover, the newer emerging virus variants may not respond to the available vaccines, and people may require an annual booster shot, which will further strain vaccine availability. Another factor is that vaccines are by and large only 70-80 % efficacious. The possibility that some variants, including the increasingly prevalent Delta variant, will not respond to the available vaccines is also not ruled out. A tardy vaccination drive, with major segments having continuing exposure to COVID, is an internal stress factor that India can ill afford. Policymakers will have to rethink the country’s vaccination strategy and the collateral delivery systems.

Restructuring Response to COVID

With a savage second wave upon us, India must now restructure its response to the crisis. The PM, in his address to the nation on 8 June 2021, has admitted to lapses in the vaccination policy, and has decided to centralise procurement, both for efficient delivery, and to minimise graft in the process. He had earlier promised a public health response based on science, making it clear that the present government policies would not have room for obscurantist remedies, which are being used without empirical basis. He has stated that there will be free vaccinations for all Indian citizens over the age of 18, and that attempts would be made to vaccinate the entire population by December 2021. His words have given a boost of confidence to the beleaguered nation, but the global shortage of vaccines is a major impediment, and there is the “Sword of Damocles”—the third wave of the pandemic, forecast from October-November this year, hanging over our heads. Vaccine shortage is emerging as one of the major threats to internal security, for any delay on this front could leave us just as unprepared for the third wave as we were for the second.

Damage Control

Planning is underway to contain and control the pandemic situation. The government has ramped up the administration and formed six nodal groups to combat the problem. NITI Aayog will be leading three of the empowered groups. ICMR will lead one of the groups, with Secretaries to the Government leading the rest.^[12] Some of the major decisions taken by the Government include custom duty waivers for vital items like oxygen cylinders, oxygen concentrators and vaccines. State governments are now permitted to borrow up to 75 percent of their annual limit for FY22 in the first nine months, i.e., between April-December. Also, government has allowed spends on makeshift COVID-19 hospitals and temporary care facilities to be treated as an eligible CSR activity.^[13]

The RBI has announced some important measures to minimise the impact of the second wave: term liquidity facility of INR 500 billion to provide fresh credit support for enhancing COVID-related infrastructure; purchase of government securities worth INR 350 billion; and a renewed moratorium on loan repayments to individuals and MSMEs. Importantly, GoI is accepting foreign aid, to combat health related problems posed by the second wave, the first time in 16 years. These steps, while laudable, are yet to create fiscal impact, due to the government’s shrinking fiscal space. The Government has expended considerable resources for relief during the first and second waves of the pandemic. The GoI has to face deteriorating sovereign ratings and undersubscribed bond issues which hinder fund raising from foreign and domestic markets. Attempts by the Government to raise funds through disinvestment in public enterprises like Air India, BPCL, and Shipping Corporation of India, have not yet yielded dividends, forcing austerity measures. This could impact India’s ability to respond to the pandemic.^[14] The stimulus package offered by the GoI through the Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative   of 10 percent of the GDP, focused on the three Rs of relief, rehabilitation and rebuilding, which included free food distribution, credit guarantees to MSMEs etc, mainly primary needs. However, the true fiscal stimulus amounted to approximately 1.3 percent of the GDP. While these measures make good economics, they have been unable so far to resuscitate the manufacturing sectors and the job markets.

Economic Woes

Moreover, several countries have restricted the entry of travellers and cargo from India. This is likely to have a substantial downside effect on trade in goods and services, which already registered a negative growth of 16.66 percent during April-September 2020. India, which has an estimated market size of over INR 375 billion, is likely to witness a similar contraction in the second wave, with the concomitant problems of unemployment, pay erosion and loss of purchasing power.

The country is reeling under the economic impact of the second wave. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), there is over 17 per cent unemployment in urban India and nearly 14 per cent in rural India. A grim Barclays bank assessment suggests that India has lost around Rs 60,000 crore every week in May 2021, and the trend is likely to continue in June and July. The bank estimates an erosion of 3.75 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Earlier, in April 2020, during the first wave of the pandemic, about 126 million jobs were lost, about 90 million of those jobs were of daily wagers. The combined effect of the lockdown and migration ravaged the unorganised sector, which is the most vulnerable. When the lock down was removed, many of the migrant labour moved back into the labour market. The pattern through the two lockdowns was that migrant labour, though often close to or within the BPL, could move in and out of employment fairly casually. Unfortunately, their earning capacity/propensity declined and consequently, social indices like education, healthcare, nutrition etc have taken a big hit. Another significant development was that a number of formal jobs, which had been lost during the first wave, came back as informal jobs, without job security, and more often than not, at reduced pay. According to the CMIE there were an “estimated 403.5 million jobs before we were hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, while today, we’re at 390 million. Everybody has not got their job back, and those who have, have not necessarily got the same quality job. And salaried jobs are still falling”.^[15] The consequence of the above backdrop is that after accounting for inflation, more than 97 per cent of India’s population has become poorer compared to where they were in terms of income in end 2019. As explained in the preceding, the economic stimulus, though well planned and well intentioned, has not given adequate impetus to restart manufacturing, which is falling steeply. It is seen that those with deep pockets prefer to put resources into the equity market, rather than into manufacturing and capacity building which would create assets and jobs. Existing enterprises are using only about 60% of their capacity, and many industries in the SME and MSME sectors have shut down. There is no way to sugar-coat this situation. It needs to improve and fast. Unemployment and economic downturns could create schisms in society, and pose major threats to internal stability.

Post COVID Health Audit

Economics and fiscal problems apart, the pandemic has a quantifiable effect on survivors. COVID 19 affects the pulmonary, cardiovascular and nephric systems. Myriad instances of patients who have survived COVID but succumb to a sudden stroke, renal failure or COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) have been recorded. Survivors often report extreme fatigue in addition to the above problems. Several survivors who have been interviewed have spoken about their inability to work at previous levels and face fall in productivity. In the second wave, many families have lost members, and the social impact of losing breadwinners, or leaving orphaned children is immense.^[16]

Effect of COVID on Security/ Health Sectors

A major security concern is the death/ infection rate within the local police forces and the Central Armed Police Force (CAPF). Over 3,08,615 police personnel have been infected with COVID to date, 33,902 quarantined, and with about 2057casualties. Figures for police families affected is not yet available. Over 30% have not been able to return to work as yet, and health problems amongst the survivors are legion.^[17] These figures are disquieting as they impact COVID control duties, which could have a major impact upon the police’s ability for COVID related work, including delivery of vaccines and essential drugs, preventing black marketing and defusing law and order situations.^[18] The problem is worse in the case of health workers and doctors. The Indian Medical Association (IMA) has stated that over 747 doctors have died of Covid-19. While all states of India have had to face casualties within the health care sector, the worst affected states were Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Gujarat. The numbers of nurses, ward attenders, and ambulance staff who have succumbed to COVID are no less grim.^[19]

Pandemic Watch continues on Red Alert

Apart from the humanitarian angle, these developments have a major impact on internal security, in terms of depletion of these core services during an expected third wave. News of the new variant of the virus prevalent in Vietnam being found in the North East, and the presence of another severe variant – B.1.1.28.2 which has been identified by the National Institute of Virology^[20] – points to a continuing red alert over the pandemic.  Add Mucormycosis to this lethal brew. Mucormycosis fungal infection is caused by a group of molds called mucormycetes, which mainly affects people with compromised immunity. What was an occasional infection has now become a serious threat due to infecting COVID patients with co-morbidities. The horrific aspect of this infection, which causes facial deformities and often leads to loss of sight, has pushed the panic button in most hospitalised patients.^[21] Hospitals and COVID care centres are gearing up for a third wave, but it is to be seen if they could adequately cater for essential services and delivery of vaccines.

Conclusion

The second wave of the COVID pandemic has ravaged the country, with health and administrative services being strained to the limit. Despite this, there have been no major instances of rioting or coordinated strikes in India. The internal situation, though strained has not cracked under the pressure. However, the possibility of a third wave and the consequences thereof has potential for societal turmoil. In this scenario, the PMO has taken charge of the situation, from centralising vaccine procurement, and distributing the same, as well as lifesaving drugs.

The factor that needs to be kept in mind are the rising casualties within the security forces, doctors and health workers, which could impede effective delivery of aid and assistance.  The pandemic is global, and its reach is global. This is one time when we as individuals need to understand our responsibilities as both proximate and international. The times call for strict adherence to COVID protocols and self-discipline. This remains the only known panacea at this time.

Author Brief Bio: Ms. Prabha Rao is Executive Director, South Asian Institute for Strategic Affairs and Distinguished Scholar at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. She is a former IPS officer from Karnataka cadre (1982 batch) who went on a deputation to cabinet secretariat and served in several locations abroad.

References:

^[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297520300251, by A A Dawood

^[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297520300251, by A A Dawood

^[3] https://covid19.who.int/june 4

^[4] https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-how-amateur-sleuths-broke-wuhan-lab-story-embarrassed-media-1596958

^[5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-health-secretary-calls-for-transparent-2nd-phase-of-covid-19-origins-investigation/articleshow/82976368.cms

^[6] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01052-7/fulltext

^[7] https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158

^[8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/government-backed-model-to-predict-pandemic-rise-and-ebb-lacks-foresight-scientists/article34479503.ece

^[9] https://www.deccanherald.com/science-and-environment/covid-19-acquires-new-mutations-to-escape-immune-response-993479.html

^[10] https://scroll.in/latest/996136/covid-vietnam-finds-new-virus-variant-with-combination-of-strains-first-identified-in-india-uk

^[11] https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/data-story-india-s-covid-vaccination-past-190-mn-about-14-population-jabbed-121052101475_1.html

^[12] https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/govt-reconstitutes-6-empowered-groups-into-10-to-tackle-covid-19-crisis-101622298616531.html?utm_source=browser_notifications&utm_medium=

^[13] Impact of the 2nd wave_koan advisory.pdf

^[14] Impact of the 2^nd wave_koan advisory.pdf

^[15] https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/cmie-ceo-says-97-indians-poorer-post-covid-steady-fall-in-salaried-jobs-121052900142_1.html

^[16] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173526v1

^[18]  https://www.policefoundationindia.org/covid-19-resources

^[19] https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/747-doctors-died-of-covid-19-in-india-ima-7277087/

^[20] Times of India June 8

^[21] https://www.freepressjournal.in/mumbai/after-white-and-black-fungus-ghaziabad-reports-first-case-of-yellow-fungus-all-you-need-to-know

Introduction

The first case of Covid-19 in India—the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus—and which first originated in Wuhan, China, was reported on 30 January 2020.^[1] Covid-19 is. India is currently passing through the second phase of the disease and has the largest number of confirmed cases in Asia.^[2] As of 19 June 2021, India has the second-highest number of confirmed cases in the world (after the United States) with 29.9 million reported cases of Covid-19 infection and the third-highest number of Covid deaths (after the United States and Brazil) at 388,164 deaths.^[3]

Although China has rejected the claim that the virus escaped from a test in a chemical laboratory in Wuhan and has also stonewalled the demand for a probe into the accident, the general opinion with some evidence is that the virus did spread from Wuhan.^[4]

The first wave

On 30 January 2020, the WHO declared Covid-19, a public health emergency of international concern.^[5] This was also the day when the first Covid-19 case was reported in Kerala, India. Subsequently, the number of cases drastically rose. According to the press release by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) of 08 May 2020, a total of 14, 37,788 suspected samples had been sent to the National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune, and a related testing laboratory.^[6] Among them, 56,342 cases tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

To impose social distancing, the “Janata curfew” (14-h lockdown) was ordered on 22 March 2020. A further lockdown was initiated for 21 days, starting on 25 March 2020, and the same was extended until 01 May, but, owing to an increasing number of positive cases, the lockdown had to be extended for the third time until 17 May 2020.

The second wave

When the coronavirus pandemic was sweeping across India last year, the government appointed a committee of experts drawn from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), and the Indian Institute of Sciences (IIS). The committee developed a “supermodel” based on the peculiarity of Indian conditions, which predicted that the Covid-19 pandemic would come to an end in February 2021 in India largely due to herd immunity. The model estimated that there were 60-65 asymptomatic undetected infections for every lab-confirmed case of Covid-19. This estimate was vastly different from the Indian Council of Medical Research’s (ICMR) serosurveys assessment of 26-32 undetected Covid-19 cases for every lab-confirmed case.

The committee submitted its report in October 2020 when India’s Covid-19 caseload was around 75 lakhs. Taking that number as a base, the supermodel estimated that the country’s actual Covid-19 caseload would have been around 50 crore or close to 40 per cent of India’s population. By February 2021, the Covid-19 wave was to draw to an end, but by mid-February, India saw a revival of Covid-19—the second wave. The second wave has since strengthened, pushing active coronavirus cases beyond 9 lakh and the total Covid-19 caseload to nearly 3 crore cases.

It should be noted that the supermodel, named SUTRA, was correct in predicting ebb in the Covid-19 pandemic wave in February. The country saw daily cases falling below 9,000 from the high of over 97,000 in September. The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has taken the daily cases of coronavirus infections to an all-time high of more than 1.26 lakh. Now, the question dominating the public debate is when the second Covid-19 wave may end in India and will it be followed by further waves.

Given the complexity of the crisis, with variants of Sars-CoV-2 clouding the calculus, nothing can be said with certainty. But a continuation of the disease over a long period of time poses serious challenges to the well-being and security of the nation. In his broadcast on 14 May 2021, the Prime Minister spoke in detail about the challenges the nation would face in this regard and asked the people to prepare accordingly.^[7]

The Challenges

Our experience with the first and second phase of Covid-19 indicates that the pandemic has hardly left any aspect of our lives untouched. Besides the severe debilitating impact on health care and the national economy, almost all vital services, social life, economic well-being, social interaction, security, law and order, development, planning etc. have been adversely and in some cases dangerously impacted. With India being sandwiched between two hostile neighbours that are in tango and trying to grab even the smallest of opportunity to bring harm to our nation, the threat to our nation is very real and serious. While nobody is in any position to predict how the future will unfold, yet prudence demands that we clearly explain the challenges and suggest remedial measures which the government may find useful for close consideration. These are enumerated in subsequent paragraphs.

Mass involvement

The handling the Covid-19 means handling the vast masses of Indian people because the virus spreads indiscriminately in urban and rural areas and transcends all human barriers like caste, creed, colour, faith, belief, ideology etc. It means the entire nation is at war with the virus. Defeating Covid-19 depends on the unity and solidarity of the entire nation in meeting the challenge as a source of national disaster. Therefore, mass involvement means putting aside small and mundane differences, local and regional rivalries, jingoistic party affiliations and identification and suppression of criminal and anti-national elements in whatever form and shape these are. This objective can best be achieved by the political leadership, panchayat and social representatives inculcating the sense of responsibility among the masses of people on an unprecedented scale. Masses of the people are to be educated and informed that unity and observance of the established protocol of social interaction alone can save their lives and their livelihood. The government has to be vigilant about disruptive elements misleading sections or segments of society under one pretext or the other.

Law and Order

There is an established mechanism of fighting natural calamities and vagaries of weather. But Covid-19 is a unique and unprecedented calamity that nobody had ever imagined. The worst is that fighting its threats becomes the duty of almost all services of the government plus the voluntary services from NGOs and social and charity organisations as supplementary support to the efforts of the government.

We have noted that the law-and-order situation in the country has come under strain after the change of government in 2014/2019. The bane of democracy in our country is the rise of personality cult on the one hand and the rise of identities of various hues on the other after the first two or three decades of independence. Incapable of handling these aberrations with deft hands, the long-sitting ruling structures began feeling deprived and marginalised because they had lost political power. As the Indian nation opted for a change in aforesaid years through the constitutional process, the dislodged segment, instead of behaving as responsible opposition, unfortunately resorted to hostility to the elected regime and even had no qualms of conscience if national solidarity and territorial integrity were attacked. It is unfortunate that the seditious slogan of “Bharat tere tukde honge, inshallah”^[8] were raised by the students of a university that stood in the name of the first Prime Minister of India, a great patriot and a democrat.

Opposition is the backbone of democracy but when the opposition becomes anti-national and propagates divisiveness, it poses a very serious threat to the internal security of the State. These elements and their cronies are out to join hands with our adversaries with no purpose other than that of pulling down the elected government. The freedoms allowed by democracy are blatantly misused and need to be curbed so that law and order in the country is not jeopardised. We have seen how a small segment of people can mislead the masses and whip up sentiments on a communal and parochial basis as seen in the case of Shaheen Bagh or Delhi riots. Enforcement of law and order must be ensured, even if “coercive force” is to be used. The nation also needs to bring about reforms in the legal structure to ensure that disgruntled elements are not encouraged or allowed to pose a challenge to the solidarity of the state.

Police and Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF)

Lockdowns are usually disliked by people. Labourers, business class, students, tourists etc. resent it. Lockdowns are highly detrimental to the economy of the country. But people have to understand the dire compulsions of the government to impose lockdowns which it also would not want to do. It is the question of public health. Lockdown is the effective way of enforcing social distancing which is of primary importance to remain safe from Covid-19.

Government has the compulsion of enforcing lockdown and it is obliged to use what is called “coercive force” meaning the police of various categories like State Armed Police and the CAPF. In many instances, these forces have to bear the wrath of the uncontrolled and irrational mobs throwing stones and hurling rocks or bombs at the security forces to discourage them and force them to retreat. In such a situation, the police or the CAPF are in a very embarrassing situation whether to use force or not when gentle persuasion fails to hold the undisciplined crowds. The miscreants and anti-government elements are on the lookout for such critical occasions to instigate the crowds that their rights and liberties are curbed and that they are being treated inhumanly.

What is of utmost importance is to provide the police and CAPF with an adequate defensive mechanism so that minimum harm is done to their person by the recalcitrant mobs. The police have to be given efficient and effective training of self-control and self-discipline not to get irritated and do any action out of frustration. Miscreants and anti-national elements will try to instigate the police which must be resisted. Sometimes the police force is asked to act against ideological war, something outside the purview of their normal function. It is the political system that must fight the ideological war and not the police force. But to malign the police, the miscreants and trouble mongers will tarnish them and paint them in a dark colour to reduce their prestige and status in the eyes of the people. This is a serious threat and all vigilance is needed to combat it.

The police are also a source of intelligence that forms the main plank of action against the anti-national elements. Be it the terrorists in Kashmir or the Maoists in Bastar or Naxalites in Telangana, the police are the main source of intelligence for the government. Therefore, the security, welfare and proper equipment are what the government must ensure in their case. We have had so many casualties of policemen and officers in tackling the anti-national elements. It is important that the public take the police as its supporter and not adversary which, unfortunately, is the prevailing idea at the moment.

Migrant workers

A very large number of labourers move out of their native places and head towards other states in search of work. They usually choose to move to industrial regions where there are good chances of finding work. Their migration may be of long or short duration depending on how long they can afford to be away from their small landholdings. Millions of daily wagers were working in numerous industrial units in Mumbai, Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh etc. when the first wave of Covid-19 struck with all fury. The industrial units were closed down and millions of these labourers were rendered jobless and forced to return to their homes. This large-scale migration raises many critical concerns, such as transportation at a time when the rail and bus services have been suspended. Unable to find means of returning home, many labourers with their families, undertook a long march to reach their native places. On 14 September 2020, Labour and Employment Minister Santosh Kumar Gangwar stated in the Parliament that information collected from state governments indicated an estimated 10 million migrants had attempted to return home as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdown.^[9]  He later stated in Parliament on 15 September 2020 that no data was maintained on the number of migrants in the country who had either died or become unemployed, as a result of the pandemic. ^[10]

Just coming back to their homes did not solve their problem as most were now jobless and penniless. It is highly appreciable that the government rose to the occasion and came to their succour. Soon after the nationwide lockdown was announced in late March, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a ₹1.7 lakh crore (US$24 billion) spending plan for the poor. This consisted of cash transfers and steps to ensure food security.^[11]  By 3 April, the central government had released ₹11,092 crores to states and UTs under the NDRF, to fund food and shelter arrangements for migrants. To help provide jobs and wages to workers, the average daily wages under the MGNREGA were increased to ₹202 (US$2.80) from the earlier ₹182 (US$2.60), as of 1 April. ₹1,000 crore from the PM CARES Fund was allocated for the support of migrant workers on 13 May. On 14 May, FM Sitharaman further announced free food grains for the migrant workers, targeting 80 million migrant workers by spending ₹35 billion (US$490 million).^[12]

It has to be remembered that the migrant workers are sustaining India’s industrial and economic growth to a great extent. If neglected and not cared for, it will result in colossal damage to our economy which we cannot afford.

Cyber threat

Writing under the caption ‘India becomes a favourite destination for cyber-Criminals amid Covid-19’, Shivani Shinde and Neha Alwadhi wrote, “In February 2021—nearly one year from the start of the pandemic—there were 377.5 million brute-force attacks—a far cry from the 93.1 million witnessed at the beginning of 2020. India alone witnessed 9.04 million attacks in February 2021. The total number of attacks recorded in India during Jan & Feb 2021 was around 15 million.”^[13]

According to Kaspersky’s telemetry,^[14] when the world went into lockdown in March 2020, the numbers in India went from 1.3 million in February 2020 to 3.3 million in March 2020. From April 2020 onward, monthly attacks never dipped below 300 million, and they reached a new high of 409 million attacks worldwide in November 2020. In July 2020, India recorded its highest number of attacks at 4.5 million.

In a Study titled ‘Covid, cyber-attacks, and data fraud top threats for India Corporate’ the Economic Times gave the following inference:

“The public health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as the top threat for Indian corporate, while cyber-attacks and data frauds loom equally large, according to a study. While there is great optimism about the ability of organisations to rebound and address future pandemic-related challenges, cyber-attacks and data fraud continue to be paramount concerns for risk professionals in India, as per the survey round 63 per cent of the 231 survey respondents — which included C-suite executives and senior risk professionals — identified the continued fallout of COVID-19 among the top three risks facing their organisations.

Cyber-attacks (56 per cent), data fraud or theft (36 per cent), failure of critical infrastructure (33 per cent), fiscal crises (31 per cent) and extreme weather events (25 per cent) were highlighted among the other top risks for Indian businesses. The majority of survey respondents (85 per cent) said the pandemic necessitated a shift to remote work, which has increased the organisations’ exposure to potential cyber-attacks.

In the light of the pandemic and shutdowns imposed by national and local governments, failure of critical infrastructure climbed the ranks in the 2020 survey as many organisations re-evaluated their risk management priorities.^[15]

We are already aware that at one time China almost locked down Mumbai, the financial hub of India. Pakistan has also been trying it. The threat is dimensional as it can penetrate every private and personal data and hack even passwords, bank account numbers, codes and sensitive documents etc. More importantly, our defence network can become vulnerable. This is a very big threat and the remedy is that India must upgrade and have the state of art cybersecurity mechanism impenetrable to any hacker howsoever crafty and improvised.

Divisive forces

Black marketers, hoarders, financial criminals, economic burglars, anti-social elements, enemy agents, communalists and sectarian malefactors are out to join hands with antagonistic political opportunists and foreign agents to strike at the roots of the values of our society like humanism, equality, democracy and respect for the law of the land. They subvert the law of the land and paint the country in the darkest colour. The partisan sections of media are playing a very negative role and they have formed a nexus with the international anti-India syndicate. When India made the vaccine, they raised doubts about its genuineness and refused to take it. But when many countries including the US appreciated India’s successful efforts, these elements are now raising the question of why the government does not vaccinate 130 crore people overnight.

The government will have to revisit the law that pertains to the internal and external security of the country. Redundant laws have to be weeded out and replaced by pragmatic and highly desirable laws that ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the State. A new standard of administrating the state in a scenario of Covid-19 and its variants has to be evolved.  Rules can be harsh because the crimes are almost inhuman. Even the judiciary has to revisit the entire scenario and bring new blood to the veins of the law and dispensation.

Conclusion

Covid-19 with its undefined variants is intractable. In all probability, it is going to stay for long with the global population. The adverse impact hardly spares any aspect of life. Therefore, the States must understand that they have to deal with a new situation in which the rights, duties, freedoms and privileges of citizens have to be given new value and new interpretation. India is vulnerable owing to its population and landmass. She has to begin new lessons in administrating the country and handling the crowds.

Author Brief Bio: Prof. K N Pandita has a PhD in Iranian Studies from the University of Teheran. He is the former Director of the Centre of Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University.

References

^[1]  “India’s first coronavirus infection confirmed in Kerala”. The Hindu    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/indias-first-coronavirus-infection-confirmed-in-kerala/article30691004.ece, Retrieved 24 February 2021.

^[2]   Hindustan Times. 29 May 2020.

^[3] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ accessed on 21 June 2021

^[4]  W.H.O. Declares Global Emergency as Wuhan Coronavirus Spreads, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/health/coronavirus-world-health-organization.html (accessed February 03, 2020).

5. 5. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2020.00250/full
6. 6. Indian Council of Medical Research. Government of India. ICMR (2020), https://main.icmr.nic.in/content/covid-19 (accessed May 09, 2020).

^[7]  News 18, 14 May 2021

^[8]  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqusr8YDwM-3mEYTDeJHzw

^[9]  The Economic Times. Retrieved 12 November 2020

^[10]  The Hindu. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 12 November 2020.

^[11]  Beniwal, Vrishti; Srivastava, Shruti (26 March 2020). “India Unveils $22.6 Billion Stimulus Plan to Ease Virus Pain”. Bloomberg Quint.

^[12]  “India to Provide Free Food Grains to Millions of Migrant Workers”. The New York Times. Reuters. 14 May 2020. ISSN 0362-4331 Retrieved 16 May 2020.

^[13]  The Business Standard, April 6, 2021

^[14]  Ibid

^[15]  The Economic Times of 9 Dec 2020

Abstract

The present situation prevailing over the world has to be unmasked and the global pandemic named “Covid-19” across the World has been originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China, and has enveloped the entire world impacting all major economies adversely in the fields of aviation, tourism, retail, education, automotive, restaurant, and oil and gas sector resulting in severe employee layoffs. Highly transmissible nature of this virus and its subsequent mutations are becoming a grave concern for the economic recovery process. A robust research and development effort around the world in the discovery of vaccines and inoculation of the people are easing the dangers posed by the pandemic. Post the first wave of the pandemic, a hesitant and uneven recovery started to take place from an unprecedented steep fall. Government of India and Reserve Bank of India calibrated stimulus intervention process into various sectors of the economy appears to positive recovery. However, a second wave caused by more lethal virus variants from March 2021 onwards has forced authorities to impose stringent lockdown procedures by all State Governments halted the economic recovery resulting in further fall in business activity and employment.

Introduction:

A cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan of Hubei Province, China have been reported by Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Eventually Covid-19 has been identified in December 2019 which was originated from Wuhan Institute of Virology, China. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared Covid-19 as a pandemic on 11th March 2020 [1]. During the first wave of the pandemic, several European countries such as Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, Germany, and the USA bore the major brunt of the virus. United Kingdom authorities reported a SARS-CoV-2 variant to WHO in December 2020. The United Kingdom referred to this variant as SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (Variant of Concern). On 18 December 2020, national authorities in South Africa announced the detection of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2. Later on, Covid-19 pandemic is continuously evolving, as mutations are taking place in the virus and the resultant severity of the virulence is constantly changing depending upon the type of variant and its structure. The proliferation of Covid-19 is not the same in all countries. Covid-19 outbreak of most affected countries for a 7-day moving average preceding 22^nd June 2021 is presented in Figure 1[2]. A comprehensive database of the virus variants compiled by global initiative on sharing all influenza data (GISAID) sourced from genomic sequencing organizations of several countries is available [3].  According to a report by Nature and Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genome Sequencing Consortia (INSACOG), B.1.1.7, B.1.618, B.1.618 and B.1.351 virus variants are dominant in India which are further undergoing mutations [4]. The severity of the Covid-19 pandemic can be easily understood from Figure 2.

On the vaccine front; major methodologies employed for their development and manufacture are m-RNA, DNA, Viral vector, Protein based and inactivated virus. A pictorial representation of vaccines developed using these methodologies and their manufacturers are presented in Figure 3[5]. Currently, 82 vaccine candidates are under clinical development and 182 vaccine candidates are in the pre-clinical development phase [6].

In India, the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Kerala, among 3 Indian students those who had returned from Wuhan [7]. Kerala has announced first lockdown on 23 March 2020 followed by the rest of the country two days later. Recoveries in Covid cases exceeded compared to infected cases by June 10, 2020. Five of the highest industrialised cities accounted for around half of all reported cases in the country, Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad, Chennai and Thane. Daily cases peaked mid-September with over 90,000 cases reported per-day, dropping to below 15,000 in January 2021 [8-10]. The country began a phased lifting of restrictions on 8 June [11]. This phased lifting of restrictions continued in a series of “unlocks” which extended into November 2020 [12]. Second wave of Covid-19 pandemic started from mid-March 2021 and rapidly spread in almost all big states in the country and is still ongoing. Stringent lockdown measures were re-imposed to tackle the worsening health care situation and to arrest the spread of the infection [13].  As the active infected cases started to fall at rapid speed, several states had started implementing the unlock procedures from the 2nd week of June 2021.

The National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for COVID-19 (NEGVAC) was constituted in August 2020 to draw strategy for the vaccine deployment [14]. The Indian government provided around 65.5 million doses of covid vaccines to 95 countries between 20 January 2021 and late March 2021. 10.5 million doses were gifted while the remaining were commercial and COVAX obligations [15]. Based on the scientific data and experience from other nations and discovery of delta and delta plus variants, several scientists including the Principal Scientific Advisor to the Government announced that “Carona pandemic Phase 3’ is inevitable and not too far away [16,17]. As of 22nd June 2021, India has administered 28,87,66,201 vaccines with a world record of vaccinations of 8.5 million on 21 January 2021[18].

Impact on Economy and Employment in India

Stringent lockdown measures have seriously impacted the world economy as well as Indian economy causing adversely in the fields of aviation, tourism, retail, education, automotive, restaurant, and oil and gas sector resulting in severe employee layoffs. According to International Labour Organization (ILO) [19], in 2020, 8.8 percent of global working hours were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019, equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs which are also equivalent to approximately four times greater than during the global financial crisis in 2009. At present during second wave, in India it is estimated by Standards & Poor’s that about $210 million daily output loss in April-June quarter period [20].

World Bank report estimates 4.3 percent contraction in global economy in 2021 [21] because of COVID19 pandemic, and it estimates that 3.6 % contraction in U.S. GDP, 7.4% GDP contraction in European Union, 5.3 % GDP contraction in Japan and 2.6% contraction in aggregate GDP of emerging and developing economies. India, the world’s sixth-largest economy also had been hit hard by the pandemic last year as its GDP contracted by 7.9% [22]. Country braced the first wave of pandemic outbreak and made some impressive recovery but onset of more severe second wave in April 2021 has wiped out the previous economic gains and dented the economic recovery. Government of India has given more freedom to State Governments to take appropriate decisions based on local situations like imposing lockdown, etc. unlike the centralised decision which happened last year. This has allowed agriculture and heavy industry manufacturing sector to keep operating. Nevertheless, 100 million jobs were lost during the nationwide April-May 2020 lockdown, and at the present, during the month of May 2021, 15.3 million jobs were lost. This has resulted in an 18% jobless rate in urban areas of India, which is an additional burden on unemployed educated youth and which is now having an inverse relationship with their education backgrounds Table-1 [23].

A recent report STATE OF WORKING INDIA 2021: One year of Covid-19 (Azim Premji University) highlights that an average household of four members, used to have Rs. I5,989 monthly per capita income in Jan 2020 which has come down to Rs. 14,979 in Oct 2020. Unemployment is more pronounced in young workers (15-24 years age group) who failed to recover employment. Azim Premji report further observes rapid increase in informal employment sector during the pandemic as salaried workers shifted towards self-employment and daily wage activities. Further, it is reported that Covid-19 has made huge damage on women employment opportunities and 46.6% of jobs of women were not recovered Table-2. It is a foregone conclusion that increasing health expenses and reduced employment opportunities have further worsened the economic situation of poorer households, increased poverty level and contributed to wealth disparities [24].

On the other hand, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., found that India’s household savings dropped to 22.1% of GDP from 28.1% during April-June 2020 which is an alarming issue. The depleting household savings and falling incomes will have an adverse effect on household member’s health care expenditure, school expenditure and standard of living including domestic consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP.

Way forward:

Government relief measures like free rations, cash transfers, MGNREGA, PM-KISAN payments, pension payments Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) and the Atmanirbhar Bharat packages have provided the soothing effect to most vulnerable population from pandemic in 2020. Government’s policy response to Covid-19 pandemic crisis is still to be reached at the needy people, particularly MSME sector. Nevertheless, the economic mayhem caused by the pandemic requires not only increasing the size and scope of the present economic relief scheme but also introducing new economic relief and reconstruction measures by considering substantial increase in the fund allocation to MGNREGA to support rural employment and to reduce the employment stress on rural areas. Potential employment opportunities can be created to the masses through MSMEs; thus, it is required to give stimulus package for employment linked incentives (ELI) to strengthen MSME sector as well as to boost employment. Credit Line Guarantee Scheme may be positively considered to extend to pandemic hit economic sectors to revive and survive the economy. With the help of technology, rural areas must be equipped for a more dispersed and decentralised growth model with substantial employment contribution. Finally, it is important to remember that the entire population of our country, irrespective of age criteria must be vaccinated to protect the lives against Covid-19 and its variants and also to recover the economy at fast and sustainable pace.

Figure 1: Covid-19 Outbreak in major Countries

Figure 2

Figure 3

 

Figure 4

Table-1:

Table-1: Unemployment in India among educated youth between age group of 15-30
Education	2011-12	2017-18	2018-19	2018-19 (>30 yrs)
Illiterate	1.7	7.1	6.05	0.57
Upto Primary	3	8.3	7.05	0.77
Middle	4.5	13.7	11.6	1.08
Secondary	5.9	14.4	13.6	1.46
Higher secondary	10.8	23.8	19.6	2.04
Graduate	19.2	35.8	33.7	3.06
PG and above	21.3	35.8	32.7	4
Total	6.1	17.8	16.1	1.24

 

Source: NSS 2011-12, PLFS 2017-18 and PLFS 2018-19.

Table-2:

Table-2: Women more likely to lose employment and not return to work
Trajectory	Men	Women
No recovery	7.0	46.6
Delayed job loss	4.3	10.7
Recovery	28.2	23.9
No effect	60.6	18.7
Total	100.0	100.0

 

Source: CMIE-CPHS. Data is for the December 2019-April 2020-December 2020 panel

Authors Brief Bio: Dr. S. Lingamurthy is Assistant Professor at Central University of Karnataka and Ms. Anandi Gunda is a volunteer intern student, Hyderabad

References:

[1] https://www.who.int/

[2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

[3] https://www.gisaid.org/phylodynamics/

[4] GayathriVaidyanathan, Nature 593, 321-322 (2021)

[5] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

[6]https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

[7] Andrews, MA; et al, Indian Journal of Medical Research. 151 (5): 490

[8] Shivani Kumar, Hindustan Times, 11 June 2020

[9] Shivani Kumar, The Week, 20 May 2020

[10] The Economic Times. 18 October 2020

[11] Journal of Industrial and Business Economics. 47 (3): 519–530

[12] Ministry of Home Affairs Unlock 5.0 official guidelines on their official website

[13] The Indian Express. 9 May 2021

[14] pib.gov.in. 12 August 2020

[15] Ministry of External Affairs – Government of India. 20 May 2021

[16] https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/

[17] M, Kaunain Sheriff, The Indian Express, 5 May 2021

[18] https://www.mygov.in/covid-19

[19] ILO Monitor: Covid19 and the World of work, seventh edition, updated estimates and analysis, 25^th January 2021, https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_767028.pdf, accessed on 22^nd June 2021

[20] https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/210m-daily-output-loss-in-india-over-april-june-in-severe-scenario-s-p-global-ratings-121050800608_1.html, accessed on 22^nd June 2021

[21] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/01/05/global-economy-to-expand-by-4-percent-in-2021-vaccine-deployment-and-investment-key-to-sustaining-the-recovery, accessed on 21^st June 2021

[22] Ecowrap, SBI Research, Issue No. 13, FY22, 25^th May 2021

[23] National Sample Survey 2011-12, PLFS 2017-18 and PLFS 2018-19.

[24] Centre for Sustainable Employment, ‘State of Working in India – 2021, one year of COVID19’, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, Karnataka, https://cse.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/state-of-working-india/, accessed on 22^nd June 2021

Introduction

Unconventional threats of all types and hues, often looks for gaps in the system. A disgruntled person, a vulnerable communication protocol between key positions of power, unrest amongst the population, leaders with allegiance to contrary ideologies, people with compromised credentials and suspect integrity, are all targets for penetration.

While India is the most vibrant of all the democracies in the world, it is also the most chaotic. Indian scriptures talk of balancing chaos and order, while Western mythologies depict the two locked in a zero-sum battle in which order must triumph. That is a reality which holds good for the present day and times. Even in chaos there is an order where everyone is included. The pandemic which engulfed the world and in with which India is now engaged in combatting the second wave, is but one form of an unconventional threat. Here, the severity of the onslaught of the second wave stretched India’s health infrastructure to almost breaking point, leaving the people vulnerable and forced for the most part to fend for themselves. The chaos was therefore without any order.

India’s adversaries consider existence of chaos as a weakness and make persistent efforts to penetrate and dismantle our system. The last two millennium have however proved that our civilisation is robust enough to withstand any onslaught despite losing military and political control. Today, India is a militarily strong power when it comes to conventional means and is an enigma in the unconventional domain for its adversaries. India’s enemies have therefore resorted to emerging technologies to innovate and perforate that invincible shield of our nation.

The Challenge

The last two years have seen an onslaught of events which, when connected together, indicate attempts being made to destabilise India economically, militarily, diplomatically and politically. It would be unwise to see these events in isolation, instead of as a coordinated multi-frontal attack. If viewed in isolation, the response matrix to each of the challenges would be significantly different to the response options that could be exercised when viewed through a holistic perspective. As an example, response to cross border terrorism emanating from Pakistan, led to more robust ripostes in the form of surgical strikes by the Army and an air strike by the Indian Air Force on the Jaish-e-Mohammed camp in Balakot, which has had a salutary impact on the security situation in the country.

To effectively deal with an unconventional threat, we need to examine the the following, to enable us to deal effectively with the threat:

• Assess the nature, scale and reach of the threat.
• Identify the organisation and the group of countries associated with the threat.
• Determine the ability of the enemy to execute the attack and its capacity to sustain the same.
• Real time damage assessment and prediction of future enemy manoeuvres.
• Ability to quantify and deploy resources to contain and diffuse the attack.

The Covid-19 Pandemic

The extent of death, devastation and financial damage the country has suffered due to this pandemic, together with the whole world is manifold as compared to the series of terrorist strikes seen in a whole decade. A clear awareness as to how the pandemic originated, therefore, would have mandated a different strategy and course of action.

The Covid-19 pandemic has confirmed to us the possibility of a hostile power carrying out bio-warfare, with the outbreak being considered by the target population as a natural occurrence and not a planned attack. Such lack of awareness on the part of the targeted population lets the perpetrators scot-free, and emboldens them to plan for and execute further attacks. It is therefore of paramount importance that the cause should be made public at the first available opportunity, so that the adversary is deterred.

Since awareness is a key parameter in determining the course of response; the mechanism to gather and confirm the information therefore takes centre-stage. In a connected world, every piece of information is mostly available. With technologies like Bigdata analytics, it is possible in reasonable time frame to foresee the enemy plans shaping up even before the execution of any attack. Eventuality, modelling for any potential disaster situation has to become an essential part of our everyday routine.

Awareness during an unconventional threat is essential through all the stages of its progression. An unconventional attack mostly subverts and stresses the infrastructure it targets. The Covid-19 pandemic has subverted the entire health infrastructure worldwide. A proper digital platform could have acted as a shield and have absorbed the impact before the physical infrastructure got exposed. This could definitely have prevented the collapse of the machinery as a whole at the least.

The Indian Response

A fundamental weakness in dealing with the pandemic in India has been that despite being declared as a war, it is being fought by multiple agencies as small battles in their respective domains and regions. Consequently, resource management has been sub-optimal, leading to critical shortages in some places and sending the population into a wild frenzy. While it is very important to name the fight as a War, it is of greater importance to fight it as a War.

India’s response, as indeed of the whole world too, on the information warfare front was also sub-optimal. In early January 2020, the indications and enormity of the pandemic was evident in the public domain, yet even the developed countries chose to overlook the impending catastrophe. In India, while the political and medical response for the pandemic was remarkably well handled, the country could have better addressed the challenges on the information warfare front and put in place a converged platform to aid and optimise the healthcare infrastructure. The country had time from February 2020 to April 2021 to put such a system in place.

Platforms like Aarogya Setu were not adequately designed to address the right problem matrix. Consequently, in the midst of the second wave the country was caught on the wrong foot on multiple counts. The lack of adequate information to the masses added to the chaos, which in turn led to further accelerating the spread of the pandemic. Not only did the country as a whole let its guard down prematurely, we collectively refused to envision the lull before the storm. The lessons to be learnt are stark, and the realisation is still dawning upon us, as to how the right decisions, choices and strategies could have made us put up a better show.

A Future Response Strategy

Fighting this war by manual planning or conventional methods cannot yield any results whatsoever. Systems in silos add more to the chaos than deliver meaningful results. It is therefore vital that a comprehensive enterprise grade solution which can receive, purify and transform information from multiple solution frameworks be made available as a pre requisite at the earliest. Such a system shall empower the decision makers with a bird’s eye view over the complete area of responsibility (AoR) which can result in swifter and practical problem response matrix. The planning would then be not on speculative or presumptive data but rather on actuals.

An unconventional warfare always creates a higher coefficient of “Fog of War”. The only method for the fog to be decluttered is by generating realtime intelligence on the adversary, coupled with the assessment of damage caused by the attack. The damage shall always indicate the source and origin of the threat while the intelligence machinery shall give vital insights into the reactions of the adversary. In short it is a closed loop with one system feeding into the other and generating new set of possible outcomes.

To effectively deal with a future pandemic or any other unconventional threat, the following aspects mandatorily need to be in place.

• Fight the unconventional threat under one single agency with a unified command and control, who shall be directly accountable to the CCS (Cabinet Committee on Security).
• NDMA should be led by a senior military officer rather than a bureaucrat, considering the lack of experience in matters of strategy, wartime planning and agile execution of the latter. We have to remember that the best people to ward of any threat of such scale and reach is always the armed forces.
• Risk forecasting and Risk mitigation strategies for all known events must be ready at all times for execution during a regime of attack. Every war should be fought with a war plan, with sufficient scope to be flexible as per the demands of time.
• The organisational structure should be powered by a converged digital platform which shall process multi-disciplinary information, so as to create a unified synthetic picture of the exact state of operations in real-time. An indigenous AI enabled Risk Informed Decision Support (RIDS) platform is an ideal solution framework for this requirement.

The country has moved heaven and earth to fight the pandemic. The efforts and intentions while being laudable, could have achieved a great deal more, if synergy had been created at all levels. Adding to the challenge is opportunistic politics, which acts as a friction to the prevalent fog of war. The National Health Authority undertaking the Digital Health Mission needs an immediate overhaul with experts who are conversant with the subject. These small measures can significantly change the course of this war and leave the country better prepared to fight future threats.

Author Brief Bio: Wg Cdr S Sudhakaran (V) is MD & CEO, QuGates Technologies