In January 2018, India hosted the leaders of all 10 ASEAN nations at the Republic Day Parade and set a historic milestone in the India-ASEAN partnership. India’s ties with South East Asia stretch back to more than two thousand years. The symbols of our shared cultural heritage and the Indian civilization are spread across the entire ASEAN region. Today, India-ASEAN partnership has gone beyond economic and cultural links, the formalization process of which started in 1992 Singapore Summit. Growing from dialogue partners to strategic partners, India has a growing economic, diplomatic and security partnership. There are 30 dialogue mechanisms between India and ASEAN, including an annual summit and seven ministerial dialogues.

India, the world’s fastest-growing major economy and a new frontier of global opportunities is an admirer of ASEAN’s own progress too and has always believed that ASEAN has a unique potential to contribute for the larger interests of the world beyond it. The ASEAN nations have an opportunity to become an integral partner in the New India’s transformation journey and to pursue higher aspirations together.

The developments of the last four years under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Act East Policy’ suggest that ASEAN countries are ready to participate in India’s vision of ‘Collective Prosperity.’

Myanmar

Myanmar shares a geostrategic land and a maritime border with India which includes a 1,640-km-long border with India’s four northeastern states – Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh. Prime Minister Modi calls Myanmar “a land bridge that connects India with Southeast Asia.” In 2016, during the visit of then President of Myanmar Htin Kyaw to India both countries signed some key agreements for the construction of 69 bridges on the Tamu-Kalewa section of the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) highway and improvements on the Kalewa-Yargi section1. The IMT highway has the potential to transform the economic landscape of the entire region as it will connect the Moreh in India’s Manipur state to Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar.

In India’s physical connectivity vision for the ASEAN, the role of Myanmar is crucial. Some of the other key connectivity projects between India and Myanmar are: Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project, the Rhi-Tiddim Road Project, and Border Haats etc.The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project was launched to create a Multimodal transit transport system which involves connecting the eastern Indian seaport of Kolkata with Sittwe seaport in Rakhine State, Myanmar by sea (shipping route of 539 km). In Myanmar, it will then link Sittwe seaport to Paletwa via the Kaladan riverboat route (inland water transport route of 158 km), and then from Paletwa by road to Mizoram state in Northeast India2.  Also, the extension projects of IMT trilateral highway to Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam are being planned and consultations in this direction are going on.

India’s participation in Myanmar’s socio-economic development is significant and it is widely appreciated by the Myanmar government. Whether its infrastructure development, agriculture research or human resources capacity building assistance, India stands with Myanmar in their endeavors to stability and growth. In 2017, India committed to assisting in the Rakhine State Development programme and in December 2018, during the President Ram Nath Kovind’s visit to Myanmar, we handed over the first 50 units of prefabricated houses built in Rakhine State. India’s assistance portfolio to Myanmar is at present worth over $1.73 billion.

The trade between both sides has doubled over the last decade. Some leading Indian oil and gas companies are in the process of opening their offices in Myanmar. In September 2017, Assam based Numaligarh Refinery signed an agreement3 with the Parami Energy Group of Myanmar for supplying petroleum products through Moreh-Tamu land border to Northern and Western Myanmar. In the month of December 2018, an Enterprise India show was held in Myanmar, in which a number of Indian SMEs also took part.

Vietnam

Defence and Security cooperation is a crucial pillar in the strategic partnership between India and Vietnam. In May 2015, Defence Ministers of the two countries signed a “Joint Vision Statement on India-Vietnam Defence Relations -2015-2020”. An agreement on cooperation between the Coast Guards of the two countries was also signed for mutual crime prevention efforts and the development of transnational cooperation. India’s National Security Advisor AjitDoval has affirmed that India would do all it can to assist Vietnam in defence and security domains, particularly in military technology, intelligence, personnel training and cyber security4. During PM Modi’s visit to Vietnam in September 2016, India and Vietnam formally upgraded their relationship to ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.’ The upgraded partnership is designed to provide a new direction to the bilateral cooperation. Both countries have signed another important agreement for Inter-Governmental Framework for the Exploration of Outer Space for Peaceful Purposes. PM Modi announced a new line of credit US$500 million to Vietnam for the procurement of defence equipment5.

Vietnam wants to build up a strong deterrence against China’s rise and its aggressive moves in the South China Sea and India’s defence capabilities can provide good support to Vietnam’s defence needs. Indian Armed forces are cooperating with Vietnamese Armed Forces particularly the Navy, in the process of capacity building. India has already been providing assistance to Vietnam’s navy through training to operate the new Russian-built submarines.

In the last four years, a number of significant bilateral visits took place between the two countries including the recent visit of President of India, Shri Ram Nath Kovind to Vietnam. Apart from defense, other emerging areas of cooperation between India and Vietnam are: energy, agriculture, agro-processing, textile, biotech, pharmaceuticals, minerals, marine and wood products etc. The bilateral trade between India and Vietnam has increased about ten folds in ten years and last year it touched US$ 12.8 billion, which makes India one of the top trading partners of Vietnam.

Laos

In September 2016, PM Modi participated in the 11th East Asia and 14th India-ASEAN summit in Vientiane, Laos. On the sidelines of the summit, PM Modi held bilateral engagements too which included talks with Laotian Prime Minister ThonglounSisoulith. Both sides have agreed that the bilateral trade between India and Laos is lower than its real potential and there is a great scope for the promotion of new trade opportunities among the business fraternity of both sides. In November 2018, the 9th Joint Commission Meeting6 on Bilateral Cooperation between the Laos and India was held in Vientiane, Lao PDR, in which several avenues to enhance trade were discussed. India’s engagement in Laos is centered on agriculture, irrigation, power, education and human resources capacity development through trainings.

India is facilitating the implementation of irrigation projects in Xayaboury, Vientiane and Savannakhet provinces, through a $30.94 million Line of Credit and has approved $72.44 million of fund for setting up a university of agriculture and training centres in Champasack province of Laos. India has also extended Duty Free Tariff Preference Schemes7 to Lao PDR to encourage the exports of goods from Lao PDR to India.

Thailand

Thailand is one the key trading partners of India in ASEAN. The bilateral trade between India and Thailand is on an upward trajectory. In June 2016, during the visit of Prime Minister of Thailand to India8, the first India-Thailand Business Forum came up with recommendations to scale up business and investment opportunities between the two countries. Thai investment in manufacturing and infrastructure initiatives of India are quite significant. Apart from skill development, tourism, and film production there are some dedicated efforts going on to forge sister state/city relations between Assam and Chiang Mai as well as Surat and Surat Thani.

Cambodia

India and Cambodia share strong cultural and traditional links. Under ‘Act East Policy’ a satisfactory pace of development is going on to align this relation with the contemporary realities. India’s role in human resource development and capacity building initiatives in Cambodia is significant and now the focus is on moving towards infrastructural development, conservation and the preservation of historical monuments. During Prime Minister of Cambodia Samdech Hun Sen’s India visit in January 2018, the two countries signed four key agreements to enhance bilateral cooperation and to deal with mutual challenges of human trafficking9. India granted a $36.92 million line of credit to facilitate the development of Stung SvaHab water resource development project. PM Modi has also announced the setting up of a centre of excellence related to Information Technology in Cambodia to train Cambodian youths. India is actively involved in the social development of Cambodia through Quick Impact Projects under the Mekong Ganga Cooperation initiative. PM Modi has decided to increase the number of annual Quick Impact Projects from five to ten and established a project development fund of Rs. 500 crore to expand industry and business links10.

Malaysia

Malaysia is the third largest trading partner of India in ASEAN and a key investment partner in the region. The two-way commercial engagements between both countries are traditionally strong which further strengthened with the signing of a bilateral comprehensive economic cooperation agreement in 2011, revised double taxation avoidance agreement in 2012, and the MoU on Customs Cooperation signed in 2013. Some Malaysian companies are actively participating in the infrastructure projects in different states of India. And other than the Indian businesses, there is a strong presence of Indian community in Malaysia too which plays the role of a significant bridge between both nations.

In the last few years, the bilateral trade between India and Malaysia has increased more than two folds and reached close to $13 billion in 2017. There are growing synergies between the infrastructure companies of India and their Malaysian counterparts. In 2017 during the visit of former Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak, Indian and Malaysian infrastructure companies signed business deals of worth US$36 billion, of which projects of $32.13 billion will be implemented in Malaysia while $3.86 billion worth of projects are planned to be executed in India. According to Malaysia’s Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB), as of 2017, Malaysian companies have completed 53 highway and road projects worth RM 9.3 billion (US$ 2.84 billion) in India11.

Transforming India offers tremendous opportunities for infra players of Malaysia, and for Indian construction companies, Malaysia is a crucial partner in the South East Asian market. According to some official stats, around 120 Indian companies, including 61 Indian joint ventures, 7 Indian Public Sector Undertakings, and 60 Indian IT companies are operating in or from Malaysia. The new areas of private sector cooperation between both sides are textiles, pharmaceuticals, glass containers, automobile associated industries, chemicals, biotechnology, healthcare, etc. In future through some active bilateral business forums such as Malaysia-India business council and India-Malaysia CEOs’ Forum, these commercial exchanges are expected to further accelerate.

Indonesia

Indonesia is one of India’s key neighbours in the region with which it shares a continuity of culture and civilization traditions. Today, both countries are focusing on enhancing bilateral trade exchanges too. The 2nd meeting of India-Indonesia CEO forum which was held in May 2018 yielded some concrete outcomes such as setting up of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) office in Jakarta. In March 2018, the first ever India-Indonesia Infrastructure Forum meeting was organized by the Indian embassy in Jakarta in which a high-level delegation of nearly 30 plus Indian CEOs from infrastructure sector were present and some 80 Indonesian infrastructure companies took part. In the month of November 2018, an India-Indonesia Business forum (IIBF) was also held at Port Blair in Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Following the state visit of Indonesian President Joko Widodo to India in December 2016 and the first-ever visit of PM Modi to Indonesia in May 2018, some successful bilateral ministerial-level defence and energy sector related exchanges also took place and the frequency of these exchanges suggest a mutual desire to enhance ties12. For many years both countries are an active partner in naval exercises/patrolling and now there is a shared desire to deepen these maritime engagements in the light of changing dynamics of Indo-Pacific region.

Singapore

Singapore is India’s leading economic partner and a key global strategic partner. Bilateral relations between India and Singapore have a strong cultural and commercial background and political relations are based on trust and appreciation for each other’s potential. The economic cooperation between both countries is vibrant and spanned across all priority sectors of two sides. A good number of Indian companies are operating in and from Singapore which makes it India’s crucial source as well as the destination of investment. To further leverage these warm ties India and Singapore have signed the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA).

Singapore is known as the Fintech hub of the world. By keeping the growing global trends of Fintech innovations in mind, PM Modi has established a joint working group of Fintech in which the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Financial Services department of Ministry of Finance, India and other relevant stakeholders of both sides will work together to promote knowledge exchange and cooperation between the Fintech firms. In May 2018, at the ‘Business Innovation and Community’ event in Singapore, PM Modi has launched India’s BHIM, RuPay and SBI app.

The Network for Electronic Transfers of Singapore (NETS) and the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) also signed an agreement to extend Bharat Interface for Money (BHIM) to recognize SGQR (Singapore Quick Response Code) for payments in Singapore. And India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) based cross-border remittance app (SBI app) will facilitate the remittances by Indian workers13. The partnership between NETS and NPCI and the launch of Indian digital payment apps in Singapore are some remarkable moves toward internationalization and branding of Indian digital payment frameworks.

Singapore is a global centre of tech and innovation and it is the only country in ASEAN with which India’s exchanges are designed around the changing needs of our time. After Fintech, Smart Cities is another futuristic area where this partnership is going well. Singapore government’s Centre for Liveable Cities in partnership with the Town and Country Planning Organization of India has launched a programme to train 100 Indian officials in Singapore for effective planning and execution of India’s Smart Cities Mission. During PM Modi’s recent Singapore visit at the “India and Singapore: Stepping into Future” business event, some 13 agreements related to investment promotion, start-ups, FinTech, artificial intelligence, data analytics, and water management etc. were signed. The Indian government’s India-Singapore Entrepreneurship Bridge (InSpreneur) initiative held two editions in 2018 and now Start-up Singapore has announced the Singapore-India Incubation Programme which aims to provide exposure and support for emerging start-ups keen to explore both markets.

Philippines

On 27th Jan 2019, a Philippine church got bombed by terrorists, in which more than 20 civilians were killed and many got brutally injured. Dealing with the ever-growing threats of radical Islamic terrorism is one of the mutual challenges for India and all ASEAN nations. On several occasions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invited South East Asian nations to join hands in the fight against terrorism. The Defence and Security cooperation are the focal points of discussion in India-Philippines dialogues. The frequency of bilateral exchanges between both nations, which started with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Philippines to attend ASEAN and EAS Summits in the month of November 2017, has substantially increased. In terms of trade, India is exploring opportunities for investments in Philippine markets in the sector of pharmaceutical, information technology, energy, and transportation, which in turn will lead to generation of thousands of local jobs. The India-Philippines bilateral trade stands at nearly $2 billion in 2016-17, while India’s exports amounted to $1.487 billion and imports to $494 million.

For more than five decades Indian companies and Filipino joint ventures are thriving in the Philippines such as India’s Aditya Birla Group through its Indo Phil Textile Mills and the Ispat Group which owns and operate Philippines’s largest plant with an investment of $254 million. Recently GMR group Ltd joined hands with a local company Megawide for airport maintenance and upgrading related projects. Other Indian automobile giants such as Tata Motors and Mahindra, and IT/ITES companies like Wipro, TCS, L&T Infotech, Infosys, Tech Mahindra etc. are active in the Philippines markets. The Indian Pharma majors like Dabur Pharma, Lupin Ltd., Torrent Pharma, Zydus Cadila, and Claris Lifesciences have also set up a liaison office to promote their products in the Philippines market. And Kalpataru and Kamani Engineering Corporation are engaged in the transmission line projects in the Mindanao regions of the Philippines. A couple of Joint Working Groups have also been set up to explore two-way trade and investment opportunities14.

Brunei

The bilateral trade between India and Brunei has more than doubled over the last decade and stood at $504 billion in 2016-17. In the last four years, some efforts have been made to explore mutually beneficial trade opportunities through regular exchanges. In September 2016, Indian Chamber of commerce, Kolkata organized a ‘Buyer Seller Meet and Exhibition’ in Brunei, in which Indian companies from diverse sectors including heavy engineering, electronics, education, textiles, and handicrafts participated15. Apart from defence and security, energy is one of the most dominant themes of our bilateral exchanges with Brunei. In the month of November 2016, the Indian government has organized a high-level delegation meeting comprising of the foreign, trade, energy, and finance ministers of Brunei with the business leaders and their Indian ministerial counterparts in India, which yielded some positive outcomes.

In his op-ed piece “ASEAN-India: Shared Values, Common Destiny” which was published simultaneously on 26th January 2018 in all the leading dailies of the ASEAN member nations, Prime Minister Modi has said: “Indians have always looked East to see the nurturing sunrise and the light of opportunities. Now, as before, the East, or the Indo-Pacific Region, will be indispensable to India’s future and our common destiny.”

In the past, in an environment of turbulence and hostility, some responsible regional players of South East Asia laid the foundation of ASEAN, and united 10 countries for a common vision of economic growth and security. Today ASEAN can again play a defining role for a stable, prosperous and peaceful future of the region and the world.

References:

1       India- Myanmar Joint Statement during the visit of the President of Myanmar to India (29 August 2016)

       https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/27343/India+Myanmar+Joint+Statement+ during+the+visit+of+the+President+of+Myanmar+to+India+29+August+2016

2     Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project-Status Note, Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region

       http://mdoner.gov.in/infrastructure/kaladan-multi-modal-transit-transport-project-inland

3     Numaligarh Refinery becomes Myanmar’s sixth fuel retailer, published at The Hindu Business Line, on 10 January

       2018 https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/numaligarh-refinery-becomes-myanmars-sixth-fuel-retailer/article9842395.ece

4     Achievement: India-Vietnam Defence and Security Cooperation by Brig Vinod Anand, published at VIF on May 12, 2017

       https://www.vifindia.org/article/2017/may/12/achievements-india-vietnam-defence-and-security-cooperation

5     India offers $500 million defense credit as Vietnam seeks arms boost by Ho Binh Minh published at REUTERS on September 3, 2016

       https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-india/india-offers-500-million-defense-credit-as-vietnam-seeks-arms-boost-idUSKCN11905U.

6     Agreed Minutes of the Ninth Joint Commission Meeting on Bilateral Cooperation between India and Lao PDR (November 23, 2018)

       https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl30627Agreed_Minutes_of_the_Ninth_Joint_ Commission_Meeting_on_Bilateral_Cooperation_between_India_and_Lao_ PDR_November_23_2018

7     Preferential Market Access: India’s Duty Free Tariff Preference Scheme for LDCs published on December 28, 2016

       https://www.un.org/ldcportal/preferential-market-access-indias-duty-free-tariff-preference-scheme-for-ldcs/

8     India-Thailand Joint Statement during the visit of Prime Minister of Thailand to India

       https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/26923/IndiaThailand+Joint+Statement+during+the+ visit+of+Prime+Minister+of+Thailand+to+India

9     India-Cambodia Joint Statement during State Visit of Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Cambodia to India (January 27, 2018)

       https://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/29394/IndiaCambodia_Joint_Statement_during_State_ Visit_of_Prime_Minister_of_the_Kingdom_of_Cambodia_to_India_January_27_2018

10  Press Statement by PM Modi with PM of Cambodia Hun Sen published on January 27, 2018

       https://www.narendramodi.in/press-statement-by-pm-modi-with-pm-of-cambodia-hun-sen-538675

11  Joint Statement of the India – Malaysia CEO’s Forum, New Delhi (March 31, 2017) published on April 01, 2017

       https://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/28294/Joint+Statement+of+the+India++Malaysia+ CEOs+Forum+New+Delhi+March+31+2017

12 India-Indonesia Joint Statement during visit of Prime Minister to Indonesia (May 30, 2018)

       https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/29932/IndiaIndonesia+Joint+Statement+during+ visit+of+Prime+Minister+to+Indonesia+May+30+2018

13 India-Singapore Joint Statement during visit of Prime Minister to Singapore (June 01, 2018)

       https://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/29942/IndiaSingapore+Joint+Statement+during+ visit+of+Prime+Minister+to+Singapore+June+01+2018

14  India-Philippines Bilateral Brief, Embassy of India, Manila, Philippines

       http://www.eoimanila.gov.in/page/bilateral-political-and-cultural-relations/

15  INDIA-BRUNEI BILATERAL BRIEF, High Commission of India, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam

       http://www.hcindiabrunei.gov.in/page/india-brunei-bilateral/

(Ms. Devsena Mishra is a promoter of advanced technologies, startup ecosystem and the
Indian government’s business and technology related initiatives like Digital India, Make in India,
Smart Cities, and Startup India. Views expressed are personal.)

(This article is carried in the print edition of January-February 2019 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

 

 

World community’s moral support to India for her air strike on terrorist camps across the LoC is the manifestation of bilateral and multilateral commitment of world powers to fight the menace of terrorism. It was neither aggression nor an offensive action; it was simply a preventive venture because the Jaish had more nefarious designs up its sleeve owing to the support it was receiving from the Generals of Pakistan army.

TheUS had conceded that India had the right to self-defence in the backdrop of Pulwama killings. It was a green signal.  Even PM Imran Khan wondered why India had delayed the retaliatory action. After all, he had repeatedly told the US that Pakistan was facing the challenge from terrorists.  He had recently said that he expected PM Modi to give peace a chance. Modi did not fail him and has given him an excellent chance by destroying Jaish terrorist camps not only in PoK but also 50 km away deep into Pakistan territory of Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It will be reminded that Punjab CM Capt. Amrinder Singh had conveyed to Imran Khan that if he had problems in destroying terrorist camps, India would do it for him.  India has kept her promise and now it is Imran Khan who has to settle the score with his Army Generals.

The chance for him is to tell the Pakistani Generals that the world opinion, including that of China and the UN Security Council, is against allowing Pak territory to be used by the terrorists for hostile activity against a neighbouring county.  The IAF strike is bound to create fissures not only between the civilian government and the army and intelligence establishments of Pakistan but also within the civil society. The slogans of shame in the Pakistan national assembly were aimed at the defence establishment and not the PM and his government. Any retaliatory action by Pakistan will be certainly devoid of support from the civil society.

Pakistani civil society has already mounted criticism against the army for falsely manipulating Jhadav case in which the ICJ has put Pakistan to shame. Sections of Pakistani media had launched a severe criticism of Pakistan for feeding the civil society with utter falsehood about the case in which an India citizen kidnapped somewhere in Iran-Afghanistan region was paraded as a RAW agent. Pakistani civil society and sections of media have openly said that the Pakistani public and the world were fed with fabricated stories about this case.

What is of more importance to us is to assess the fallout of the air strike on Kashmir politics. It has dealt a very hard blow to pro-Pakistani and pro-Azadi elements including the entire Kashmiri mainstream political spectrum. They have to understand that when it concerns the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Indian State, then the might of the state comes into force. Sheikh Abdullah had to be isolated for nearly 12 long years. Because the deceptive and ambivalent Kashmir political leadership has been pampered for last so many decades by the Congress regimes, the day has come for Kashmiris to realize that they have to live in a realistic world. The Pulwama attack and now the IAF strike has exposed all so-called mainstream political stalwarts in Kashmir. Some of them are thinking which other flags they should carry on their shoulders after setting aside the Indian tricolour. Till yesterday their eyes were fixed on Pakistani flag and since this morning they have shifted the goalpost and are now looking for Chinese flag. This could be the best opportunity for New Delhi to announce abrogation of 35 A that has been clandestinely incorporated into the Constituting, But the government gives due respect to the Apex Court of the country.

Chinese exhortation to both India and Pakistan has a deeper meaning than what one may presume. It tells Pakistan to just survive so that she is able to return the mountain-high debts she owes to Beijing.

The deceptive Kashmir political leadership has found thatthe wind has been taken out of its sails. In utter frustration, one of them posed the question of whether Balakot, the terrorist site that has been razed to the ground is on the Indian side or Pakistani side. This shows how ill-informed this leader is about the geography of the area. For his information, the Balakot that had been made the main headquarter of the Jaish suicide bombers is part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 50 kilometres inside Pakistan territory in PK.

Army has already been given full powers to deal with terrorism in Kashmir Valley. Within just a few days, a large number of Kashmiri second rung leaders have silently expressed their support to any proactive measure by the government to eliminate insurgency. Conditions are highly favourable for the imposition of military rule in three infested districts of South Kashmir. The interned Jaish-e-Mohammedactivists are pulling strings to offer apologies and commitments to disassociate from JeM. In faithful pursuit of their traits of character, most of the hitherto pro-separatist groups will change their narrative and begin to sing eulogies of those who are going to eradicate the menace of militancy from Kashmir. It is a matter of time.

Realizing the political fallout of the IAF strike on domestic politics, the Congress President has come out in support of the strike. |Not only he, even the diehard critic of Modi government but Owaisi has also expressed his firm support to the action taken against terrorists based in the neighbouring country. Impetuous Farooq Abdullah cannot remain stuck to the fence. The entire political scenario in Kashmiris on the brink of going through a sea change. Like wounded jackals, the valley separatist leaders will retire to their hovels so that nobody sees them licking their wounds. Kashmir stands liberated from the skunk into which it had been dragged. Nobody has any objection to the Wahhabization and Salafization of Kashmirian Muslim society, Indian nation the least. The emancipated members among the OIC, realizing that Kashmiris were headed towards self-destruction, are seeking an assurance from Indian foreign minister that she would do all she can to pull them back from the brink of the abyss.

(Prof. K.N. Pandita is the former Director of the Centre of Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University, Srinagar. Views expressed are personal.)

 

Nothing could be more farcical than the missive Pakistani foreign minister has sent to the UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutierrez on Monday last(18^th February 2019) seeking his help to “reduce the tensions between the two countries”. Raising alarm over the threat of India attacking Pakistan, the foreign minister has, in his letter, alerted the UN Secretary-General that the security situation was fast declining in the region. He says that he writes with a sense of urgency. Interestingly, the foreign minister has underlined that the Pulwama suicide attack was “ostensibly and even by Indian accounts carried out by a Kashmiri resident.”  He goes on to argue that India has heightened tension to fulfil its domestic political agenda.

Handing out a veiled threat, the minister has, in his letter, alleged that India has hinted at abandoning the Indus Water Treaty, which would be a “grievous error”. He has urged the UN to step in and defuse the tension and that India should institute an open and credible investigation in the terror attack. He supplicates for UN intervention to prompt India for talks on Kashmir. And finally, he has requested the Secretary-General to circulate the copies of his letter among the members of the UN.

Before we try to dissect the contents of this bizarre letter, let us inform our readers what has been the reaction of the UN agencies on Pulwama suicide attack that has taken the lives of 44 CRP personnel and wounded others.

In a PTI despatch carried by the DNA of 22 February it is reported that on Thursday, the 15-member UN Security Council including China, condemned in the “strongest terms” the “heinous and cowardly” terror attack perpetrated by Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed in Pulwama and stressed on the need to hold organisers and financiers of such “reprehensible acts” accountable and bring them to justice. The press statement, issued by the most powerful UN body, names the Pakistan-based terror group headed by Masood Azhar. The press statement said,” “The members of the Security Council condemned in the strongest terms the heinous and cowardly suicide bombing in Jammu and Kashmir, which resulted in over 40 Indian paramilitary forces dead and dozens wounded on February 14, 2019, for which Jaish-e-Mohammed has claimed responsibility.” It further said, “The members of the Security Council underlined the need to hold perpetrators, organisers, financiers and sponsors of these reprehensible acts of terrorism accountable and bring them to justice, and urged all States, in accordance with their obligations under international law and relevant Security Council resolutions, to cooperate actively with the Government of India and all other relevant authorities in this regard,

This categorical statement of the Security Council has come a day after the letter of the Pakistani foreign minister was delivered to the UN Secretary General. The condemnation by the UNSC comes just a day after Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN Maleeha Lodhi met top UN leaders, including with Secretary-General Antonio Gutierrez and the Security Council President Anatolio Ndong Mba, briefing them about  what she claimed “escalating tensions in the region in the wake of the Pulwama attack.”

Let us revert to the letter of Pakistani foreign minister and expose his frustration and an attempt of hiding behind a plethora of falsehood. What need has India for providing a proof of involvement of Pakistan in the attack when Jaish-e-Muhammad, the UN designated organization publicly claimed that it was behind the attack. Neither the Pakistan government nor any Pakistani intelligence agency repudiated the claim of Jaish. And the Jaish, based in Bahawalpur, Pakistan, is fondly patronized by the ISI and Pakistan army. Secondly, India produced a plethora of evidence in the Mumbai attack and Pakistan evaded action. It even disowned Kasab and declined to accept his dead body after he was executed.

As far as the creation of tension, this is precisely what India has been saying and proving that suicide bombers and infiltrators are sent from across the border to disrupt peace in Kashmir. The tension in the region is the handiwork of Pakistani jihadis raised as the front-line strike force against India. And there is not only the Jaish but so many known and unknown terrorist groups who change their nomenclature as the situation demands. What is Salahu’d Din the chief of United Jihad Front doing in Rawalpindi? What has Pakistan to say about the intercepted conversation between him and late Burhan Wani?

Four times resolutions were moved in the Security Council to designate the Jaish chief Azhar as the international terrorist. Every time China opposed it. Why is it so? The answer is that China encourages anti-India adventurism of Pakistani jihadi organizations while it imposes all conceivable restrictions of Uighur Islamists in its eastern province of Xinjiang. China has already extracted a commitment from Pakistan that its terrorist organizations will not admit Uighur rebels in its training camps for training in terrorism. Following that commitment, China imposed most reprehensible restrictions on the Uighur Sunni population of Xinjiang in performing their religious duties and Pakistani fanatics remain tongue-tied.  Obviously, China promotes terrorism abroad while maintaining a strict vigil against it at home.

Pakistani foreign minister has talked about India intending to walk away from Indus Water Treaty. In the first place, India has never said anything of that sort and knowing that Nehru had shown unwarranted generosity to Pakistan in that treaty, India did not oppose it in any way all these years. Not only that, Pakistan dragged India to the International Court and World Bank several times alleging Indiahad violated the Indus Treaty, India just took recourse to the legalities of the case and never hinted at revanchist stance. Therefore Pakistan’s allegations are nothing more than a figment of imagination.

However, it will be reminded that Pakistan broke the commitment made to the UN by signing the Security Council 1948 Resolution on Kashmir. Pakistan broke the commitment made in Shimla Agreement that it will solve Kashmir issue through bilateral talks and shun violence. Against this, Pakistan raised Kashmir issue again andagain at the UN and other world fora. Not only that, frustrated on its failure to grab Kashmir, it sponsored a proxy war in 1990 in Kashmir of which Pulwama suicide attack is a part. The point is that if Pakistan feels she has a right to break commitments with international ramifications, she will have to concede the same rights to India in the case of Indus Water Treaty, which in no way is of scriptural sanctity not to be rescinded.

And finally, as regards the alleged threat India is posing to Pakistan in the words of her foreign minister, the fact is that Pakistan is indeed faced with dire threat certainly and unquestionably not from India but from its own people against whom it has adopted discriminatory treatment and most repressive and oppressive policies. Pakistan, to be precise, the Pakistani Punjabis are face to face with the threat from the Baloch, the Sindhis, thePashtoons, the Kashmiris of PoK and the entire people of Gilgit and Baltistan. India and the entire world stand for democratic and secular values for all communities especially the minorities in any part of the world.

The comity of nations is geared to meeting the threats to the world society posed by the powerhouse of terrorism in Pakistan. Very soon, France is going to table a resolution in the Security Council asking to declare Mas’ud Azhar as an international terrorist. This will be a befitting reply of the Security Council and the world community to the letter which the Pakistani foreign minister dispatched to the UN Secretary General in an act of bravado.

(Prof. K.N. Pandita is the former Director of the Centre of Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University, Srinagar.)

 

Young individuals are one of the foremost assets in India and Southeast Asia because they symbolise the potential for the future. The role of Youth in Nation-building process becomes even much more important in 21st Century when India and Southeast Asia are positioning themselves internationally as innovative, creative, inventive and disruptive economies, with an outward looking market-based approach along with philosophical principles of inclusiveness, admiration and respect for diversity and willingness to change for the better. In a time of constantly developing technological machineries and rapidly transforming economic, social as well as political realities, young generation in India and Southeast Asia is among the most advanced as compared to any developing region or country so as to help in contributing for the innovative solutions to solve issues or problems in future that humanity is facing in 21st century. In today’s time, societies in India and Southeast Asia need the contribution of young and dynamic minds in the form of transformative ideas, passionate enthusiasm and a forward-looking vision to resolving problems and challenges in today’s era.

India’s ties with countries in Southeast Asia has a strong foundation of cultural linkages and civilisational ties which is noticeable in the cultural resemblances in many aspects and it has been the bedrock for building the platform for the new emerging areas of cooperation. As stated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in one of his speeches, the ancient Indian epic Ramayana remains a shared cultural heritage between India and Southeast Asia, along with the unique links established by Buddhism and Islam which has travelled from India to Southeast Asian countries through many centuries. Today, the Socio-cultural connectivity includes cooperation between India and ASEAN in terms of people-to-people exchanges, development of human resources, science and technology, education, health, small and medium enterprises, tourism, information & communication technology and climate change etc.

India and ASEAN have been actively involved in various capacity building projects for Youths. The Indian diaspora in Southeast Asian countries has also played a very important role in cementing the youth and socio-cultural connectivity between India and Southeast Asia. These inter-cultural linkages need to be highlighted further because such links are critical in connecting the similarities of culture and bridging the diversity of culture between India and ASEAN. Spiritual tourism offers enormous opportunity to build socio-cultural connectivity between India and Southeast Asia. Buddhist Tourist Circuit which connects Bodhgaya and Rajgir in the state of Bihar, Kushinagar, Sarnath and Shravasti in the state of Uttar Pradesh and Sanchi in Madhya Pradesh has the potential to become a hallmark of connectivity through spiritual tourism promoting socio-cultural connectivity among the people of India and Southeast Asia.

The young generation of today’s time will certainly get an opportunity to play a leading role in their respective countries, either at political or in different capacities, but the youth will be the future. Therefore, nurturing youth cooperation between India and Southeast Asia will naturally lead to better gains in the longer run for the entire region because India and Southeast Asia stand on the edge of entering into a new era of development and cooperation, the vital key to which lies in the mutual partnership among their youth population. If the potential of young generation is harnessed and channelised in a structured way, then the youth can help ushering in a brighter future.

To promote greater awareness and appreciation of traditions, heritage and cultures of India and Southeast Asia in each other’s country, including through organising cultural & cuisine festivals and discuss & exchange experiences on preserving traditional cultural values, India Foundation in collaboration with Ministry of External Affairs, Govt of India, initiated a platform of ASEAN-India Youth Summit. This platform brings the young minds from India and ASEAN together, to promote youth exchanges in order to enable them to harness the significant contribution which young people can make in their respective countries. The platform of Youth Summit is also helpful in exchanging and sharing experiences among ASEAN member states and India on various issues related to youth and socio-cultural connectivity and also for identifying future areas of co-operation. With socio-cultural linkages as the foundation, India Foundation’s 2nd ASEAN-India Youth Summit will have deliberations on “Youth and Socio-cultural Connectivity,” so as to evolve a partnership among youth for progress and prosperity.

Different methodologies aside, which only result in minor variations, it would be correct to state that a pie chart representing the Indian economy would be a highly disproportional one vis-à-vis the three main sectors of the economy and the number of people dependent on them. The agricultural sector for instance, is a space that employs more than 50 percent of the total workforce but contributes only 17-18 percent to the country’s GDP. On the other hand, the service sector accounts for nearly 53-54 percent of the country’s GDP that has only about 30 percent of the workforce employed in it.[1] This mismatch, notwithstanding a mostly stagnant manufacturing sector in spite of many a policy push, creates an urgent need for encouraging new businesses, entrepreneurs and skilling (re-skilling where applicable) the predominantly rural workforce of India. Another important factor one needs to take into account to fully understand the social ramifications this disproportional structure of the Indian economy causes, is the fact that during all the years post the economic reforms of 1991, India has been the fastest growing major economy in the world. Thus, in practice, this has resulted in an ever-growing gap between farm incomes and incomes derived from the tertiary sector. This elevated growth is abetting a large-scale migration of workers from farms to factories. The shift from agriculture-based jobs to jobs in the service industry requires a certain formal acquisition of knowledge and quality tertiary education is still a dream for many due to the low penetration of higher education among the majority of the population.

To approach the issue of highlighting the importance of entrepreneurship and skill development in this context, one has to also look at the technological transitions in place today. Machine learning, artificial intelligence and cost efficient robotics are rendering many current jobs/roles redundant. As the division of labour between humans and machines finds a new equilibrium, scaling up skill sets of over 300 million workers and training 100 million new hands to keep up with technological transitions is a mammoth task. This is only possible through re-skilling the workforce and incentivising individuals to look for new avenues beyond the ambit of current traditional businesses and job offerings. Relevant technical and vocational skills need to be imparted and public-private partnerships need to be fostered to achieve this task.

Perhaps the one area where India can outpace other nations in this ‘New Industrial Revolution’ is by building on its competitive edge of an upcoming massive demographic dividend with the majority of the workforce being under the age of 30 with the average age of the country expected to be 29 by the year 2026[2]. This, coupled with the fact that India will soon be the most populous country in the world, makes for an interesting dynamic. Even today, India has one of the largest workforces in the world. The best case for India is therefore to spruce up its comparative advantage and churn out a smart, skilled workforce which is in sync with the requirements of a new global economic order. Traditional knowledge needs to be monetised and inherent acquired strengths need to be leveraged by investments in a knowledge based economy leading to sustained smart skill sets. In the last five years, numerous pro-business reforms and prudent policy steps have been taken in this direction by the government and India Inc.

For the sake of simplicity, we shall only take examples and ramifications of a few initiatives, namely, Startup India, Standup India and Skill India. These campaigns, initiated by the Government of India in partnership with institutional stakeholders and private players, aim to prepare and encourage young Indians to look for employment in avenues previously considered ‘safe’ only for the 1 percent. With an initial pool of 100 billion rupees and an additional pledge of USD 10 billion by Japanese firm SoftBank, Startup India is incubating startups in the country by offering various incentives like fewer inspections, tax sops for the first 3 years, easy 90 day exit window and under Standup India enabling women entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs from the backward classes distinct benefits in uplifting themselves and also promoting India as a start-up hub across the world. As collaterals, patent fees have been slashed and innovation is being encouraged under the overall aegis of the Atal Innovation Mission. Skill India, on the other hand, aims to train over 400 million people in India in different skills by 2022. Many initiatives of the government have been clubbed under the Skill India Mission with partnerships from all spheres. The United Kingdom too has entered into a partnership with India under this scheme and virtual partnerships will be initiated at the school level to enable young people to experience the school system of another country and also develop an understanding of the culture, traditions and social and family systems. In the annual budget of 2017-18, 170 billion rupees were allocated to the Skill India Mission. The first of its kind, public-private-partnership company, The National Skill Development Corporation India was also created with the mandate of catalysing the skill development landscape in India.

As a result, India has moved up to number 77 in the Ease of Doing Business Index, a major improvement in rankings in recent times and bettered its ranking in the Global Innovation Index by moving up five places to number 57 in a list of 126 nations. Clubbed with various other initiatives and schemes, and a rich pool of English speaking engineers, doctors, researchers, businesses and scientists, global optimism in the Indian economy has been re-enforced and investor confidence improved. Broadening the bandwidth of these knowledge factories and the structural strengthening of India’s economy to the benefit of small and medium sized enterprises, that are not only job creating centres but also drivers of economic growth, is the need of the hour. Furthermore, partnerships in this area with other strategic partners like the ASEAN countries needs to be pursued, for together India and ASEAN make up about 30 percent of the world’s population and have a combined GDP might of around USD 5 trillion.

Bibliography

Economic Survey 2017-18, Government of India, Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs, January 2018.

IMF Working Paper: The Demographic Dividend: Evidence from the Indian States; Shekhar Aiyar and Ashoka Mody; International Monetary Fund; February 2011.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Shangri La Dialogue, marking 25 years of partnership with ASEAN remarked “For thousands of years, Indians have turned to the East. Not just to see the sunrise, but also to pray for its light to spread over the entire world. The human-kind now looks to the Rising East, with the hope to see the promise that this 21st century beholds for the whole world because the destiny of the world will be deeply influenced by the course of developments in the Indo-Pacific region.” Soon after the opening remarks on the holistic importance of the region, the Prime Minister delved into the theme of connectivity and trade. Symbolic of the larger emphasis, most discussions and policies regarding India-ASEAN inevitably veer into the economics of connectivity.

It is rather fascinating that the genesis of the relationship was a sectoral dialogue that began in 1992, which has now transformed into a strategic partnership. Consequently, the recent trade figures are around USD 80 billion a year, implying an exponential growth of 25 times in 25 years. However, for any meaningful analysis, we need to define economic connectivity; which is any form of economic relations amongst states, or grouping of states including trade, business activities, financial relationships, human mobility, and state-sponsored economic relations. This is quite broad a definition, and unsuitable to work with. However, two key findings in a recent policy research paper of the World Bank leads to a workable model:

• countries benefit (in terms of economic growth) from multiple types of economic connections like trade, FDI, migration, information and communication technologies (ICT), air transport and portfolio financial flows and
• growth is further enhanced by complementarity in the multiple types of connections and, the quality of connections in terms of knowledge spillovers and the indirect connections made through partners that are well connected.

With this framework in place, it is prudent to evaluate the state of economic connectivity between India and ASEAN. An analysis is done with two most important economic connectors: trade and investment, however it can be extended to include other indices mentioned above.

Trade and Investment and Knowledge spillovers
After the free trade agreement (FTA) in goods in 2009 and FTA in services and investments in 2014, there seems to be an upsurge in trade ties. And in 2015, India established a separate mission to ASEAN in Jakarta with a dedicated ambassador to strengthen engagement with ASEAN centric processes. Consequently, two-way trade grew over 10% in 2016-17. There is now an ambitious target of USD 200 billion trade by 2022. This focus on trade is neither arbitrary nor is it accidental, trade connectivity is the most important of indices in economic connectivity; it highly influences overall growth and the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution . This indeed can be construed as a poverty alleviation measure.

After trade, investments are considered to have a cogent influence on economic growth. India received around USD 14 billion as the foreign direct investment (FDI) from ASEAN economies in 2015-16. Over 99 per cent of total inflows is from Singapore, with other Southeast Asian countries accounting for less than one per cent. The Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement between India and Singapore has toppled Mauritius as the single largest FDI contributor to India.

India and ASEAN have an active and fruitful cooperation in digital connectivity, and information and communication technologies (ICT). India proposed to establish digital villages in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. While India has planned to build 100 smart cities, ASEAN has piloted to build 26 smart cities. Amongst the ASEAN countries, Singapore has the lead in contributing to digital connectivity . This has a direct impact on other economic connectors, including investments, where Singapore holds the pole position. Perhaps, Indian interest in embracing multidimensional connectivity to further digital connectivity, coupled with other physical connectivity networks in ASEAN countries will produce knowledge spillovers (one of the main engines of economic growth)

The need for Multidimensional Connectivity
The impact of multidimensional connectivity or economic connectivity across multiple channels put together is higher than the impact of each of the individual network indices, suggesting that overall connectivity is more important than each of the individual channels separately. Hence, policies to enhance connectivity across trade, FDI and Information flows are likely more beneficial than focusing on enhancing only one channel. The tradeoff is likely to be an outcome of a negative sum game, i.e., reducing connectivity in one dimension may reduce the impact of growth from other channels. The following is a case in point.

More than 400 flights ply the India and Singapore route in a week. The figure is around 200 flights a week with Thailand and Malaysia respectively. However, there are no direct flights between India and the largest and most populous country in ASEAN, Indonesia. Reducing connectivity in this dimension may have affected growth from other channels (like trade or FDI).

Focus on complementarity
With the focus now shifting to the mega-trade pact of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), and the concomitant fears to protect trade interests, it is also vital to understand that India-ASEAN has a robust complementarity in product sectors. Greater economic connectivity can increase our exposure to international shocks, but it may also mitigate shocks by enabling a country to increase its reliance on other links in its network. For example, the European Union has now imposed a restriction on importing palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, which constitute around 15% of their countries’ total exports . Such a shock readily finds a mitigating partner in India, whose palm oil consumption has increased from 3 million tonnes in 2001 to nearly 10 million tonnes at present — that is a growth of over 230 per cent.

Hence, greater multidimensional economic connectivity increases the likelihood that an economy will absorb new ideas and increase long‐run growth. Economic connectivity influences trade and investment, but it also results in exchange ideas, technology, and institutional arrangements, which are all potential sources for spillovers to growth and may indirectly influence shared prosperity. While addressing the Canadian Parliament, President John F. Kennedy exclaimed that “Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies. Those whom nature hath so joined together, let no man put asunder. What unites us is far greater than what divides us”, perhaps the Act East policy could embrace this towards the ASEAN countries.

Bibliography

ERWIDA MAULIA and CK TAN, Nikkei Staff Writers. “Indonesia and Malaysia Fire Back at the EU over Palm Oil.” Nikkei Asian Review. November 23, 2017. Accessed January 18, 2019. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Indonesia-and-Malaysia-fire-back-at-the-EU-over-palm-oil

Hao, Chan Jia. “ASEAN and India Set to Enhance ICT Cooperation.” The Business Times. Accessed January 21, 2019. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion/asean-and-india-set-to-enhance-ict-cooperation.

Gould, David Michael; Kenett, DrorYossef; Panterov, Georgi Lyudmilov. 2018. Multidimensional connectivity: benefits, risks, and policy implications for Europe and Central Asia (English). Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 8438. Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/580411526052786851/Multidimensional-connectivity-benefits-risks-and-policy-implications-for-Europe-and-Central-Asia

PM Interacts with Members of Self Help Groups across the Country through Video Bridge. http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=179711.
Gould, David Michael; Kenett, Dror Yossef; Panterov, Georgi Lyudmilov. 2018. Multidimensional connectivity : benefits, risks, and policy implications for Europe and Central Asia (English). Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 8438. Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/580411526052786851/Multidimensional-connectivity-benefits-risks-and-policy-implications-for-Europe-and-Central-Asia
Ibid
Hao, Chan Jia. “ASEAN and India Set to Enhance ICT Cooperation.” The Business Times. Accessed January 21, 2019. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion/asean-and-india-set-to-enhance-ict-cooperation.
ERWIDA MAULIA and CK TAN, Nikkei Staff Writers. “Indonesia and Malaysia Fire Back at the EU over Palm Oil.” Nikkei Asian Review. November 23, 2017. Accessed January 18, 2019. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Indonesia-and-Malaysia-fire-back-at-the-EU-over-palm-oil.

Even after many rounds of debate and discussion, we have failed to arrive at a unanimously acceptable definition of ‘Assamese’. Who is an ‘Assamese’, if one is a Rabha; another, a Bodo; yet another, a Karbi; so on and so forth? A collective identity is hard to conjure up if there are several fissiparous sub-identities. Sub-identities do not make a cohesive community. Sub-identities have underpinned the politics of the state for decades, which partly explains why it is onerous to arrive at an unanimously acceptable definition of ‘Assamese’.

Assam has been truncated many times in the past. Not too long ago, the Khasis, Pnars and Garos broke away from Assam because the imposition of Assamese as the state language was unacceptable to them. Major ethnic groups like the Bodos are gradually showing their disinclination in using Assamese as a medium of instruction or communication. The day may not be too far for the Bodos to attain statehood. When that happens, there will be an explosion of many more voices demanding separate states. The two districts that were carved out of Assam to create Meghalaya enjoyed relative autonomy within the state of Assam. Today, there are a number of autonomous areas in Assam and some groups dwelling in these areas are becoming highly vocal in their demands for separate states. If there is a movement for a separate state in the Barak valley, and along with the valley, other autonomous areas become separate states with the passage of time, then what would remain of the ‘Oxomiyajati’ is not hard to fathom.

Let us come to the Assam Accord. Why is it that, for the rest of the country, 1951 is the cut-off year for detection and expulsion of foreigners, but for Assam, it is 1971? It is said that the AASU-Gana Sangram Parishad (GSP) leaders signed the accord under duress. These leaders remain unaccountable to the people of Assam as to why they accepted 1971 as the base year. Acceptance of 1971 as the base year automatically turned the Bangladeshi migrants of two decades into citizens. Stalwarts of the Assam Movement who are political heavyweights today and who are opposing the Citizens’s Amendment Bill (CAB), had thrown Assam’s future into darkness by this single horrendous act. In a feckless attempt to airbrush Indira Gandhi’s fault in endangering the security of the people of Assam by proposing 1971 as the base year, the justification given was that she was under the compulsions of the Indira-Mujib pact. But there is a flip side to this narrative. In 1980, Indira Gandhi had offered the AASU-GSP leaders, January 1, 1967, as the cut-off year for detection and deportation of the illegal migrants. What subsequently happened needs to be brought to the fore. Though the former CM of Assam, Mr PK Mahanta, denies that such an offer was ever made by the former PM of India, Bharat Narah and Hiranya Bhattacharya vehemently contradicts him (Prafulla in a tight spot over migrants, HT, 28 Aug 2008).

There is a perception that the passage of the CAB will open the floodgates for a fresh wave of influx of Bangladeshi Hindus to India, and Assam will have to bear the brunt of the next wave of influx again. Paranoia has reached such dangerous proportions that even the voices of reason are no longer heard. Consider this: there are two types of migrants from Bangladesh to India—economic and political. The remarkable performance of Bangladesh’s economy under Sheikh Hasina indicates that the flow of economic migrants has almost stopped. The country’s GDP growth rate has gone up from roughly 5% in 2008 to 7.86% in 2017-18 with key sectors like agriculture, manufacturing and services generating the bulk of the jobs. Foreign exchange reserves increased five-fold and both savings and investments rose to over 30% of the GDP. Per capita income has risen nearly three-fold since 2009, reaching USD 1750 last year, and the number of people living in extreme poverty—classified as under USD 1.25 per day—has shrunk from 19% of the population to less than 9% over the same period. 2.5 million overseas workers fuel the economy with remittances which jumped 18% over the previous year to reach USD 15 billion in 2018.

Political migrants are generally those who are persecuted, most of whom belong to the minority Hindu community. During the BNP-Jamaat regime of 2001-06, attacks on minorities were rampant. After Hasina returned to power, minorities generally feel safe. Only a few cases of land grab have come to light. 18 members of the Hindu community have been recently elected to the Bangladesh National Assembly. Apart from the political voice that that the Hindus have in Bangladesh today, a number of law enforcement personnel and lawgivers are also from the Hindu community. The possibility of people fleeing persecution on a large scale and infiltrating into India appears remote. The Home Ministry has recommended that those seeking Indian citizenship must provide proof of persecution. Moreover, a three-tier smart fence is being erected along the Bangladesh border to check infiltration.

It is being contested that the CAB is not in keeping with the spirit of the Assam Accord, which states that all immigrants, irrespective of their religious persuasions, must be deported. There are Assamese, Khasis, Garos and other Northeastern communities living in Bangladesh even today. What would be the stance of the organisations opposed to the CAB, if members from the Northeastern communities, who are linguistic minorities in Bangladesh, are forced to flee to India? Would these outfits still take the hard line or a moderate one?

It is also for consideration, as stated by some, that if the eight lakh Bengali Hindus are excluded from the National Register of Citizens (NRC), then 17 districts of Assam will fall into the hands of those who follow Jinnah’s ideology or those who are driven by the zeal to complete the ‘unfinished business of Partition’, i.e. merging Assam with Bangladesh. Let us consider this claim from a historical and a contemporary perspective. History illustrates that the Saadullah government wanted Assam to be incorporated into East Pakistan. Though Assam continued to be a part of the Indian Union, Sylhet district of the erstwhile Assam Province was transferred to East Pakistan. In the Muslim majority Kashmir valley, hardly a day passes by without the call for ‘azadi’. If 17 of Assam’s 33 districts are Muslim dominated, is there any guarantee that Assam will not witness a religion based separatist movement? In the debate over the CAB, the reality should not be lost – that a ‘jati’ without the ‘mati’ has no identity and the ‘mati’ with a ‘divided jati’ attracts predatory powers.

(Dr. Jyoti Prasad Das is a medical practitioner and freelance writer. Views expressed are personal.)