Nurturing Growth and Resurgence in IOR

A nnumber of noteworthy developments pertaining to the Indian Ocean region have taken place over the last one year. My remarks are broadly aimed at analyzing those contextual happenings, while also explaining India’s evolving thinking on this important subject.

Some months ago, at an interaction on this subject in this very city, the significance in geo-politics of oceans in general and the Indian Ocean in particular was raised. It was brought out that we do not think of oceanic spaces as we do of continents and instead regard them more as a neutral, characterless vacuum to be filled by those most active. The granular complexity that a large landmass would present does not automatically extend to equally substantial maritime space. Some of that is understandable because it does not have the same population density. But somewhere in our thinking is the assumption, probably reinforced by the colonial period, to regard the seas as passages to transit and not an arena of activity by itself. The point I wish to underline is that perhaps the time has come for us to devote more energies and attention to a greater understanding of maritime activities and cultures and not regard them simply as an adjunct to the littoral.

Now, even as oceans go, the Indian Ocean is one that has been particularly disadvantaged in recent history. The irony actually is that it has long had an essential unity that is based on the monsoons. In fact, if anything, it is relatively unique in that regard. No other part of the maritime world has its fundamental economic activities so directly derived from cycles of nature. This unity was expressed over the ages primarily through maritime trade rhythms, that then carried over into migration, traditions, practices and faith. As a result, this ocean evolved its own special identity that is based on mobility, acceptance and inter-penetration. This historical inheritance is visible across its expanse, whether it is Hindu temples in Bali and My Son, in fact all the way upto Zhengzhou in Arab communities in Aceh and Eastern Sri Lanka or the Waqwaq settlers in Madagascar. Indeed, there are few more striking examples of global trends being expressed through the region as local presence. Remnants of influence after so many centuries only give us a partial sense of the intensity and vibrancy of what must have been one of the most active economic highways across this enormous geography. That they still tell their tale testifies to the fact that the overall ethos of the Indian Ocean was one of co-existence and adjustment, where respect for diversity was intrinsic to the promotion of trade. If we are to revive a sharper sense of its own identity, it is important to appreciate and foster this multi-chromatic picture of the Indian Ocean.

If pluralism and syncretism are deep historical traits in the recent past, they have been strengthened by liberalism as well. When we stop and think about it, the Indian Ocean is the most populous English speaking lake in the world, larger than the Atlantic. The colonial era did much damage to this ocean community. But it did leave some good behind in institutions, practices and values that today are naturally supportive of international norms and rule of law. My point, therefore, is that a combination of history – both ancient and more recent – provide the foundation today to build a more contemporary region with its own personality.

The reasons why we do not readily appreciate this unity of the Indian Ocean are complex and worthy of a debate by themselves. In part, it was the effect of the lateral fragmentation of the region by external powers. Colonial powers certainly created artificial firewalls through their administrative jurisdictions that diluted centuries of natural movements and contacts. Their dominance also saw an accentuation in the divisions between the ocean and its littoral societies with a shrinking of local maritime practices and capabilities. As these inherent traditions of sea-faring diminished due to the pressures of European presence, we were left with a less active visualization of this vast global commons. Decolonization and emergence of modern nation states again put such a strong emphasis on territoriality that it further reduced the salience of regional and trans-regional cooperation and flows. The Indian Ocean was thus seen as less intrinsically coherent than, say, the Atlantic or the Pacific. Even its constituents like the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea are not deemed to have a culture like the Mediterranean, the Caribbean or the North Sea. The questions which arise – and are no doubt subjects for this Conference – are whether we should revive the ethos of the Indian Ocean region, whether we can, and if so, how do we do it?

The case for investing more effort into the revival of the identity and community of the Indian Ocean is now gathering greater support. It could be said that our collective presence at Colombo is itself an affirmation of those objectives. There are a number of reasons that explain this trend. To begin with, the littoral countries have generally developed strongly in the last few decades, with higher economic growth, better social indices, greater political influence and more confident postures. Together, they have lifted the overall region to greater prominence in world affairs. It is their aggregate national development, when combined with the progress of East Asia, that has led to the resurgence of Asia in global politics. The practical consequences of this growth have been a very marked increase – both from the demand and supply side – of goods and commodities through the Indian Ocean. As a result, the Ocean may well be on track to reclaim its historical reputation as the world’s primary economic highway.

Now, it is rare for opportunities and benefits to come without challenges or responsibilities and the Indian Ocean is no exception. We have already seen greater threats of piracy at its extremities. There are other factors that could also impede the regular flow of commerce. The Ocean and its littorals are particularly vulnerable to the threats of radicalization and terrorism. They are also feeling the consequences of climate change while being susceptible to pandemics. It is evident that responses must come from the neighbourhood itself. Both natural and man-made disaster and humanitarian situations can and will occur in a part of the world where fault lines of various kinds run deep. From the perspective of Indian experience, we have seen that recently in the civil war in Yemen, in the earthquake in Nepal, water crisis in Maldives and landslides in Sri Lanka. Today, we cannot realistically expect that distant societies that are increasingly engrossed in themselves would react to emergency situations far away. This is an era of dispersed power arrangements that call for self-help and burden sharing. The Indian Ocean, like many other regions, must find more solutions within.

Reconstituting a community identity in the Indian Ocean will be a painstaking endeavour. In its structured format, it would require oceanic forums like the Indian Ocean Rim Association to acquire greater content and higher profile. But that perhaps is an overly formal way of approaching what is a complex challenge. At the end of the day, getting a large number of countries with distinctive histories and diverse cultures to collect around a shared ocean space requires institutional and informal, regional and global, economic, cultural and civil society solutions. Building blocks do exist, once we start thinking of them in that manner. From the security perspective, the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium offers a broad-based platform for exchange of views. We have initiatives like ReCAAP and SOMS in South East Asia and CGPCS (Contact Group on piracy off the coast of Somalia) and anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden at the western extremity of this ocean. In addition, there are national, bilateral and plurilateral cooperative endeavours in play in the fields of maritime domain awareness, coastal surveillance and white shipping that contribute to larger oceanic security and safety. In this uncertain world, if there is a point of agreement, it is that the salience of alliances is decreasing. It is equally apparent that old fashioned military rivalries are giving way to more subtle and complicated competitions for influence. The future is to get nations whose interests are aligned or even overlap to work together on global and regional challenges in a non-formal but effective way. That would mean somewhat different agendas and conversations, with a more open mind and an appreciation for what each player can bring to the table. This trend is visible already in naval exercises, strategic consultations or infrastructure projects. Stability and order cannot be built only on the strength of capabilities. It must be tempered by the discipline of law, in this case respect for UNCLOS which was recognized by IORA as the constitution for the oceans. Freedom of navigation and over flight must be a given.

At the same time, let us not forget that this region boasts of established regional organizations, foremost among them being the ASEAN. The GCC in the Gulf, SADC in Africa or the BIMSTEC in Bay of Bengal can each make their contribution felt towards a larger cause. In fact, it could even be contemplated that larger global organizations like the Commonwealth could collaborate to strengthen capacities in the Indian Ocean region. Another promising avenue of exploration are initiatives like the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) whose vision document was unveiled at the recent meeting of the African Development Bank, or the International North-South Transport Corridor that promises to reduce transit time and costs to Europe. Connecting these many dots and lines to create a greater sense of coherence is a growing necessity.

Clearly, much depends on how the possibilities of connectivity unfold in Asia. There are today various approaches and initiatives that offer choices to the nations of this region. Many would understandably like to make the best of all these opportunities. But the experiences of the last decade underline the importance of making mature and considered decisions in this regard. There is a growing understanding that following universally recognized international norms, good governance, rule of law, transparency, openness and equality are essential for better outcomes. Even more critical is observing principles of financial responsibility, ensuring transfer of technology and promoting a sense of local ownership. The ethos of the Indian Ocean is a consultative one and in the long run, it is the people-centric initiatives and projects that are likely to be more sustainable. While we tend to think of connectivity in physical terms, let us not forget that it has its softer aspects that are actually no less important. People-to-people contacts, religious travel and exchanges, heritage conservation and cultural promotion are all enabling factors that can contribute to a greater sense of bonding among societies. It is, therefore, essential that we approach the connectivity challenge with a holistic perspective – community centered not transactional – that has a purpose of common good as its primary driving force.

India’s particular contribution to the prospects of the Indian Ocean region was spelt out in detail by the External Affairs Minister yesterday. I would categorize them into four broad themes: (a) hinterland linkages and strengthening regionalism (b) maritime contributions and support (c) linking South Asia to South East Asia through an Act East policy and to the Gulf through a Think West approach, and (d) assume larger responsibilities as a net security provider with an integrated approach, reflected in the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) vision. Each of these aspects is by now sufficiently advanced to be appreciated by those who have an interest in this region’s future. I would particularly emphasise that India is today devoting greater resources and energy and assigning greater priority to building connectivity, contacts and cooperation at the heart of its Neighbourhood First policy. This is evident in progress in areas like power generation and transmission, rail and road transport, port and waterways transport and in educational and health exchanges with virtually all its neighbours. In parallel, we have endeavoured to ensure the safety and security of maritime traffic through the ocean by strengthening skills and logistics of our southern neighbours like Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. In this context, let me also emphasise that states with necessary capabilities have an obligation to ensure that smaller states are made more secure through EEZ surveillance and that their full rights are established through hydrographic cooperation. We will be guided by the development and security priorities of our partners and our approach will focus on the big picture, rather than be driven by narrower reciprocal considerations.

No analysis of the Indian Ocean would be complete without capturing the development at its extremities, be they the eastern coast of Africa or the Pacific islands. The holding of Pacific Islands Summits and the enhancement of our engagements and development projects is as important a development as our shared goal of climate justice. The story of India’s development assistance to Africa has similarly not got the attention it deserves, partly because it does not play to the gallery. On the contrary, its focus on people-centric economic and social activities has given it a lower profile though broader support. In the last few years alone, projects financed and built by India span a wide range of sectors across this vast geography. They include water projects from Tanzania to Sierra Leone, hydel and thermal power plants in Congo and Zambia to Sudan, rural electricity networks in Mozambique and Gambia, sugar factories in Malawi and Ethiopia and IT projects and vocational training centres across the continent. We are today closely engaged with the East African countries on the Indian Ocean periphery with whom we have longer historical contact and closer proximity.

A few words about the IORA. In 2011, we had proposed at the 11th Council of Ministers Meeting at Bengaluru that cooperation focus on maritime safety and security, trade and investment facilitation, fisheries management, disaster risk management, academics and S&T, and tourism and cultural exchange. Our focus currently is to ensure that initiatives announced at the 2016 Bali COM meeting are expeditiously implemented. Five of them – the Blue Economy dialogue, the Indian Ocean seminar, the International Relations conference, the SME workshop and the initiative to set up a centre for medicinal plants – have progressed. Plans are underway to deliver on commitments on water, science and technology, water security and sustainability, women’s entrepreneurship, innovation exposition, maritime safety and security, media exchanges and renewable energy.

The Indian Ocean is about people, culture and commerce. Appreciating its complex texture and intricate nuances is essential to nurture its growth and resurgence. It must be approached with empathy, not as a business. It must be treated as a partner, not as an arena. The goal must be inter-dependence, not dominance. An authoritative account of this region noted that while the monsoons may no longer dictate when ships can travel, yet its rhythms still pervade the lives of billions of people. The Indian Ocean is renewing its status as a zone of encounters and a cross-roads of culture. The time is approaching for it to come back into its own.

*This article is a summary of the address delivered by Dr. S. Jaishankar, Foreign Secretary, Government of India, on  1st September, 2017 at the 2nd Indian Ocean Conference at Colombo,
Sri Lanka organised by India Foundation.

(This article is carried in the print edition of November-December 2017 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

Nepal-India Relations: From the Perspective of Democracy and Development

India completed 70 years of its independence. The progress that India has made in various sectors is an exemplary story of our times. India’s achievements in the fields of science, technology, and social innovation have been a particular inspiration.

India has also proved that it is democracy that binds diverse societies together while promoting tolerance and individual dignity. By showing one can achieve these high ideals even at low national incomes; democracy has been India’s gift to developing world.

We hope for a strong, stable, peaceful, democratic and prosperous Nepal. We know this is also in the interest of our neighbours. On our part, Nepal has made it clear that under no circumstances would it allow its soil to be used against its neighbours. Beyond solidarity India is also one of Nepal’s most important partners in development. It has been a reliable friend and neighbour in need and hardship.

We are grateful for India’s generous support towards socio-economic change, and humanitarian assistance in Nepal going back decades. We also share several regional and global platforms. It is our firm conviction that international cooperation is not a choice but a compulsion. Nepal aspires to grow together with SAARC and BIMSTECcountries.

Our main priority is better connectivity of infrastructure, technology, energy, markets, ideas and high culture. We also seek meaningful cooperation in trade, investment, tourism and finance.

Transnational challenges such as terrorism, climate change, natural disasters and food security pose a new genre of challenges. Nepal condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. We call for concerted efforts to combat this menace wherever it is seen. In addition to natural hazards like the earthquakes of 2015, Nepal is also bearing the brunt of climate change despite negligible contribution to greenhouse gas emissions.

We recall with pride the active participation of great Nepali leaders like B.P. Koirala in India’s freedom movement. They responded to the call of Gandhiji, boycotted government schools and joined the Quit India Movement in 1942. B.P. Koirala taught us, “Democracy is indivisible, if you want democracy at home, you cannot afford to neglect all struggles for it.” He believed that when the British rule ends in India, it would be Nepal’s turn for democracy. He was prophetic. In seven decades of struggle, democracy has seen ups and downs in Nepal. We are grateful to the people and the Government of India for their goodwill and moral support for all democratic movements in Nepal since the 1950s.

After the historic people’s movement in 2006, Nepal today is in midst of a profound transfor-mation. The constitution we promulgated in 2015 was written in the most democratic and inclusive manner. It accommodates aspirations of diverse ethnic groups. It guarantees every woman right to lineage and right to property without discrimina-tion. All full and fair gender balance is ensured in all high offices of state.

Still, we consider our constitution to be a living and dynamic document that is open to revisions as and when required. Just three days ago, we voted on an important amendment to address the concerns raised by people from Tarai-Madhesh. Though the amendment did not muster the two-thirds majority of votes required, the process brought to the forefront the wider acceptance and importance of the issue raised. It showed the commitment of parties like the Nepali Congress to redress grievances of its citizens.

As all of us know, politics is process. For our democracy to mature, we have realized that it is necessary to overcome the legacy of the past. We will take everybody along on the journey towards greater prosperity, inclusion and dignity. Democracies must deliver to stay relevant in a world that is deeply inter-connected. Today’s citizens demand better governance to advance their rising aspirations.

Our foreign policy is dictated by the interest of the Nepali people and the principles of Panchsheel. The five principles of peaceful co-existence that are derived from the teachings of Siddhartha Gautam – the enlightened son of Nepal. Nepal’s foreign policy priority begins with its neighbouring countries. We consider trust as a pre-requisite to an enduring relationship. Nepal-India relations are unique and unparalleled in character. People of the two countries share special bonds and affinity. From Janakpur to Ayodhya, Lumbini to Bodhgaya, or Pashupatinath to Vishwanath, we share a common set of values, culture and civilization.

The advent of democracy has further honed people-to-people contacts and deepened mutual trust across a wide spectrum. But my emphasis is on the fact that the more policy challenges become complex, the greater the salience of democracy to garner consensus and mediate likely conflicts.

The world watches Asia with great interest today. While this region is the world’s brightest spot in the 21st century, there are also major challenges staring at us. We need to work together to make the most of existing opportunities. A shared vision of prosperity based on the foundation of peace, stability and democracy, we hope, will uplift us all.

And we believe that Nepal and India – as one of the closest neighbours in the world – have a vital bearing on this march towards greater freedoms and progress. No country, however big and powerful, can deal with these transnational challenges alone. This demands stronger partnership and deeper collaboration among us all.

In November 2016, I had the honour of delivering the 12th Nehru Memorial Lecture at Jawaharlal Nehru University. There, I argued that a vision of economic prosperity and political freedoms must go hand in hand in the 21st century. I had raised a few development challenges that we must all confront together.

The first is about our young demography, and the challenge of finding decent, well- paying jobs on a mass scale at a time when the world is witnessing the fourth industrial revolution.

The second is about harnessing renewable resources, such as hydro-power, and mitigating climate change. How do we manage our common natural resources?

The third is probably the biggest generational challenge of our times. It is about ending absolute poverty by 2030, narrowing inequality within and across countries, and reducing vulnerabilities.

The fourth issue is to grapple with both the challenges and opportunities that come with intense urbanization. How do we build sustainable cities and prosperous villages?

And the fifth development challenge of our times will be to adapt to new patterns of production, trade and employment that are being disrupted by technological breakthroughs. How do we manage dislocation of established patterns of livelihood? I am only flagging these issues.

*This article is a summary of the speech delivered by Shri Sher Bahadur Deuba, Prime Minister of

Nepal at the Civic Reception hosted in his honour by India Foundation at New Delhi on 24th August, 2017.

(This article is carried in the print edition of November-December 2017 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

Mauritius: An Agenda for Development & Growth

India and Mauritius have nurtured a very special relationship for decades – a relationship that keeps growing from strength to strength.

Mauritius as you may know has come a long way as a small island nation. We have diversified our economy significantly from a sugar based mono-crop economy since independence on the 12th of March 1968 to a modern service economy only two decades later. Today, as we stand at the dawn of the 50th anniversary of our independence we also stand proud of our achievements.The helping hand of India has been significant in achieving this progress. We could not have reached to where we are now without the help of friendly nations and India has always been by our side.

Since Independence, our country has had to weather many storms and even black swan events. But we have against all the odds raised the standard of living of our people through free education to one and all. All along we have seen our relationship with India grow and evolve – from one which was centered on cultural cooperation in the early days of independence to one that became more and more focused on economic cooperation in the eighties and late nineties.

And now with Prime Minister Modi I can say that the relationship between our two nations is extending to areas like technology, innovation, digitalisation and also to coming together to reach out to Africa. In fact, Indo-Mauritian relations have never been so deep and so strong. India, as has been the case all the time, still strikes a very emotional chord in the hearts of Mauritians.

On the other hand, we are very happy to see that India is now one of the most prominent players on the world economic and political front. The world around us keeps changing very fast. Just a few years ago we were talking about globalisation and free trade and all the good that it meant to the whole world. Many countries like Mauritius were condemned to adapt. We have changed our development paradigm to become more open to trade, to investment and to foreign expertise when under pressure to join the free trade we totally liberalised our trade and economy. In fact, Mauritius is almost a duty-free island now. And we are among the most liberalised economies in the world. When Reaganomics and Thatcherism swept the world, we deregulated extensively. Today, we fear that the world may go back to the policies of the sixties and seventies where protectionism was the order of the day.

One cannot help but think that it was the protectionist policies of the then developed countries, in particular their hostile attitude to manufacturing products from developing countries – that had stifled the industrialisation efforts of countries in Africa, Latin America, and also Asia.  And this includes countries like India, Brazil and Mauritius amongst many others.

Today we must seriously ask ourselves whether these days will be back. And if they are back – how will the world order unfold in the next few years? Looking at the world today, retrospectively to the start of the great recession, with the benefit of hindsight, we can seriously put into question the ability of traditional fiscal and monetary policies to take economies out of recessions and put them on a recovery path.

Is the fear of deflation behind us? There are so many questions that need to be answered so that we can as policy makers make the right choices and implement the right policies.  But there are also so many events at the geopolitical level, the rise of terrorism and even normal political events that are resulting in surprises that development considerations are fast moving to backstage.

Mauritius is nevertheless doing its very best to adapt.  We are a small nation – what we would call a price taker and not a price setter. I have decided that the next lap of our development will have to be innovation driven. We are fast losing our competitiveness against the low wage export platforms and our global competitiveness will therefore be determined by our ability to innovate.

We also realise that we are experiencing a demographic shift in our country that will constrain our development. The fertility rate is falling and our population is ageing fast. This means that our population will start decreasing in the coming decades. With an already exiguous domestic market we are condemned to be an export dependent nation, unlike countries like India that can also leverage its domestic market to fuel growth.

That is why we are pursuing policies to broaden our economic space through a New Africa Strategy and the Ocean Economy. The new Africa Strategy opens a market of some 1 billion people and with good prospects for growth in the future. This is an endeavour that we know we will not be able to do alone. We are expecting the collaboration of India and Indian investors for mutual benefits.

And as regards the Ocean Economy, it opens up some 2.3 million square kilometers of maritime economic space. In fact, Mauritius has one of the largest exclusive economic zones in the world. This offers immense opportunity for long term and even very long-term development. In fact, our ocean economy, including our seafood hub, fisheries, port activities and tourism already contributes around 10 percent to our GDP.

We are also investing massively in infrastructure because we believe that such investments will bring in hefty dividends in the medium and long-term. Thanks to support from India we will have a sophisticated light railway system to modernise our public transport system. And we are also investing to transform our port into a maritime hub for the region, expanding our airport capacity, and extending our road networks.

There will thus be vast opportunities for further strengthening ties between our two governments, our entrepreneurs and investors and indeed our nation. The rapid conclusion of CECPA negotiations is of high priority to our two nations.

I hope that India will continue its march to greatness and to continue in its endeavour to shape a better world for all of us. Mauritius has made its choice under my Prime-ministership – India is our strategic partner. Thank you India.

*This article is a summary of the speech delivered by Shri Pravind Kumar Jugnauth,
Prime Minister of Mauritius at the civic réception hosted in his honour by
India Foundation at New Delhi on 27th May, 2017.

(This article is carried in the print edition of November-December 2017 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

India-Mauritius Relationship: An Enduring Friendship

Our sincere felicitations to Shri Pravind Jugnauth,the Hon’ble Prime Minister of Mauritius on his assumption of the august office of the Prime Minister of Mauritius since January 2017. We are happy that he had chosen India for his first visit abroad after taking over as the Prime Minister. Such visits assume significance as they strengthen the special bilateral relationship between India and Mauritius.

Eminent thinker Mark Twain has once said about Mauritius, “You gather the idea that Mauritius was made first, and then heaven, and that heaven was copied after Mauritius.”  Mauritius is a very beautiful country. The Diaspora linkages between Mauritius and India are amongst the strongest so much so that Indian Ocean does not separate us but actually connects us. Our relationship is growing from strength to strength as the years go by. Mauritius enjoys the unbound love, unlimited affection and unconditional support of India and this is a sentiment that cuts across party lines. I am sure the feeling is mutual and the same love exists on Mauritian side also.

India-Mauritius relations are not based on regional geo-polity but their foundation lies in strong social and cultural bonds, historical traditions and our shared rich heritage. The people who went to Mauritius from India took their language, customs, traditions, religious beliefs with them to their new abode. As a result our ties are deep rooted and identities so common that culturally we cannot be separated from each other.

The brief stopover by Mahatma Gandhi en route to India from South Africa in 1901 is still etched in the consciousness of Mauritius. The visit of Barrister Manilal Doctor in 1907 on the suggestions of Gandhiji helped the Mauritian Indian community to organize themselves and laid the foundation of the struggle for political and social rights. As a tribute to Gandhiji and the Indian freedom struggle, the national day of Mauritius is celebrated on March 12 (the day Dandi March was started by Gandhi ji.). It is an excellent gesture on the part of Mauritius to honour Gandhiji’s work and influence.

The Indian Diaspora, today, has grown into an energetic and confident community of over 30 million that has given India a presence in all the continents of the world. It makes all Indians proud when the overseas Indian community is recognized for its work culture, discipline, social values and capacity to integrate successfully with the local community and respect their traditions.

Since 1948, diplomatic relations between India and Mauritius have continually deepened and today they touch diverse areas of cooperation. The rich bilateral relations could be seen from our wide range of agreements and MoUs which include vivid areas including taxation, Air Services, science and technology, tourism, environment, traditional system of medicine, among others. It is a matter of satisfaction that India is largest trading partner of Mauritius and has been the largest exporter of goods and services to Mauritius since 2007. India and Mauritius also enjoy close cultural and educational ties. India is one among the most favourite destinations of Mauritian students for higher education. It is also encouraging to note that several Indian educational institutions have also started functioning in Mauritius.

We recall how Mauritius had made great strides in economic development by a set of sound policies since the times of Sir Anerood Jugnauth. He has been a friend of India who rendered continued support for India’s causes and concerns and was instrumental in strengthening our relations, particularly in creating technology-based projects. Today, we are confident that the Hon. Prime Minister will carry forward that vision and the Mauritian economy will receive further growth and all round development under his able and dynamic leadership.

We all appreciate President Dr Ameenah Gurib-Fakim, the first woman elected President of Mauritius, for her work in the areas of biodiversity, traditional medicine and development of small and medium enterprises. In Indore and Maheshwar, I have also made an effort to connect traditional medicines with learning of Sanskrit text.

Today the concept of Blue Economy as part of the framework of Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) is emerging as a new narrative on productive and sustainable engagement with the vast development opportunities that oceanic resources offer.  Blue Economy has great potential for sustainable development, particularly from the point of view of the Sustainable Development Goals. The words of our Hon’ble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi echo the national sentiment that “the Blue Chakra – or the wheel – in our National Flag, represents the potential of the Blue Economy”.

Another point that needs to be highlighted is that of Asia-Africa Growth Corridor that our Prime Minister alluded to while inaugurating the recent Annual meeting of the African Development Bank in Ahmedabad.  I am sure India and Mauritius can explore the possibilities of working together for achievements of the goals envisaged in the AAGC.

Under the able leadership of Shri Pravind Jugnauth and mentorship of Shri Anerood Jugnauth Mauritius will prosper with dynamism, modernity and witness all-round development.

*This article is a summary of the speech delivered by Smt. Sumitra Mahajan, Speaker of  Lok Sabha at

the civic reception in honour of Shri  Pravind Jugnauth, Prime Minister of Mauritius,

hosted by India Foundation at New Delhi on 27th May, 2017.

(This article is carried in the print edition of November-December 2017 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

Civilisational Foundations of Indian State

Since the time we became independent about seven decades ago, the Indian state has evolved into a successful institution. The whole evolution of this statecraft – in the form of states, our political establishment, managing the diverse demographies – all this has a very solid foundation. That foundation is the ancient nationhood of this nation. The reason to evolve into a successful democracy is not because we have adopted any great theory in 1947 and that theory has brought us to a situation where well blossomed democratic institutions flourish in this country today. In fact we had a very solid national foundation in this country and over that this institution has flowered into a successful one.

The biggest challenge before our leadership at the time of independence was to integrate multiple political entities that existed at that time in the form of princely states. But the Indian experience was different from the experiences elsewhere like in USA or the former USSR. The journey of Unites States of America as a nation began in 1776 when they first created one state called USA when 13 British Colonies decided to come together and formed into one nation. That journey is yet to conclude. There are still serious fault lines and raging debates on the national identity of USA. Texas joined in United States in 1845. Whether it joined conditionally or fully is a debate that rages to this day. There are people in Texas and elsewhere who say Texas reserved the right to secede from America anytime it feels its interests are not protected. There was a case in California wherein it was argued if Texas had that right why not California. When Obama got reelected to the presidentship in America, several online petitions were set off by people who believed that it was an insult to America’s so-called racist identity. And some of the petitions received considerably high support to the tune of 100 thousand signatories and 75 thousand signatories. Their whole argument was that it was a defeat of their identity and therefore they should secede from America. USSR, which was formed in 1922, could not live beyond 70 years.

In 1947, when we got independence, British provinces naturally formed part of independent India. We needed to use several tactics to bring all the princely states into the Indian Union and to make them accept the paramountacy of Indian Union. Nehru had to issue threats, Patel had to be more diplomatic, and Rajagopalachari had to be logical. Of all the top leaders, it was Rajagopalachari, who had the most profound argument at that time. He simply said, Indian paramountacy is not based on any agreement, it is based on a fact. In USA it was based on agreement, in case of USSR, it was by force. Whereas here in India, it was neither force nor agreement, but a fact. That we are a paramount sovereign entity is a fact. Rajagopalachari had to emphasize on that part.

The important fact is that barring some four important princely states – Hyderabad, Junagad, Bhopal, Jammu and Kashmir – largely the princely states of India, were not inimical to the idea of accepting Indian paramountacy and joining Indian Union. They only wanted some concessions.  Looking at the experience of the other nations, it seemed to be such an easy thing that it happened in three months time. It all began in May 1947 and ended by the time we became independent in August 1947. In three months, except for about four, all other princely states agreed to join Indian Union.

We began the building of Indian state on a rather solid foundation. In the system we have adopted, we have shared the powers between Union and the States. Seventh Schedule of the Constitution deals with the Union List, State List and the Concurrent List. I belong to a school of thought, which always believed, we should have a strong union. Because India being such a large country, with so much diversity, in order for it to be kept intact, united, in order to ward off any threats to its sovereign entity, we needed to have a strong Union, a strong central government. But the experience shows, there is nothing to be feared.

The devolution of powers further down the units has happened as a process in the last seven decades. We speak of giving powers to the local panchayats. Unfortunately, States are very greedy and they do not want further delegation of powers to the panchayats. When we brought in Panchayat Raj, all that we did was to give money directly to panchayats and not powers. Today power still remains with district collector, then of course with the secretariat at the state capital. We are advocates of further strong devolution of powers to local panchayats. We must allow them to handle their own affairs. How many cowsheds they should have need not be decided in Hyderabad or Patna. That should be decided in their village. The local bodies must be given more powers. Today financial devolution has happened. But this has happened as a process. Having closely watched it, I sincerely feel that as long as we keep the foundation of one common national identity based on civilisational and historical experience strong in this country, you can do any number of experiments with Indian state craft.

As part of my political duty, I deal with states that are remote from Delhi. Remoteness causes problems in States like Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, etc. Many efforts were made not just to hit at the state, but to hit at the nationhood of this country. But they have not succeeded. Any number of attempts to wean the people away from the foundation, have not succeeded in these states.

Finally those who wanted to challenge the sovereignty also, had to come down to the view, sovereignty is one and that is Indian sovereignty. Under that, one can demand the moon. This is the experience of the last seven decades. The lesson here is, rather than worrying too much about what will happen to this country if we devolve more powers to the states down the line, do not worry about it as long as you have enough institutions in place to keep your national consciousness intact.

National consciousness can be built around several things, even on things like insecurity. You can create a narrative of insecurity and try to keep national identity as one. That is how Pakistan does. For them to keep their nation one and intact, only thing is to show that there is a neighbor on their eastern side which would destroy them. That keeps them as one. Economic interests keep 51 entities of United States as one entity. Whereas in case of India, it is the civilisational and cultural oneness of this nation that keeps it intact. Once this foundation is intact and solid, you can do any number of experiments in statecraft.

One need not worry about the rise of regional parties in India. They espouse regional interests. India is a vast country with distances and distances matter. Somebody sitting in Chennai, may think his interests are different from the interests of somebody sitting in Delhi. He might develop his own political narrative based on those interests. Let us not deride it as regionalism. In our country regional politics took centre stage for a period of about two decades between transmission from Congress dominated politics to the BJP dominated.

Initially, the dominant force in this country was Congress Party, for a very natural reason that Congress had essentially tried to take entire credit for independence movement to themselves. They said we were the people who got independence to this country. In fact, Congress was just a platform to right from Hindu Mahasabhite to a non-Muslim league Muslim party member, or Krishak Praja Party member. It was a platform for Maulana Abul Kalam Azad and Madan Mohan Malviya together. Congress was a platform to even people like Dr. Hedgewar and Savarkar. The founder of RSS Dr. Hedgewar, actually participated in Congress led independence movement. Not only was Congress a political party, it was a united platform for all the Indians to fight against the British rule.

Ideally, Congress should have listened to Gandhiji. On 27th January 1948, three days before his unfortunate death, Gandhiji dictated to his Secretary, a new constitution for the Congress wherein he stated, “Congress having achieved its objective of independence although truncated, should abandon the form of a political entity and become Lok Sevak Sangh.” But Congress leaders at that time wanted to make Congress into a party and sell the idea that they were the people who brought freedom to this country. Naturally, because Congress movement was such a powerful movement, people have so much faith in it, people supported Congress as a political party also.

First two decades of the narrative in post-independent India was Congress centered because there was no scope for alternative political narrative. By seventies, the alternative narratives came up. The only alternative narrative available then was the left narrative, the communist narrative, which did not suit the genius of this land. It never grew substantially in this country except in some universities and in some states. After the political narrative remaining dominated by Congress for the first two decades, then came the effort of all the smaller parties joining hands to take on the Congress. That led to a phase of coalitions at centre and number of states. That is in seventies and eighties. Then gradually the other alternative national narrative in the form of BJP has grown in strength. By mid nineties the second alternative narrative, is in place.

Some said it was communalism verses secularism and that Congress represented secular forces and BJP represented communal forces. The narrative used to be that, but that was not true. There is a narrative that Congress was representing. There was alternative narrative BJP has come up with. And the real politics of these two opposite narratives began some time in nineties, which you witness to this day. In this competition of two different narratives, now BJP has got the upper hand.

The phase today is where the BJP’s narrative, narrative of national oneness, its own narrative of secularism is the dominant narrative in the country. It doesn’t mean all the others are going to be washed away. BJP formed a government in Assam. It had around 30% popular vote and Congress had around 31%. In first past the post system, it is not necessary that ruling party or alliance must have more votes, but it should have more seats. In Manipur, Congress had only 35% popular vote, BJP had 36.5%. Congress got 28 seats, but BJP had only 21 seats. Genuine multi party democracy has evolved in this country where regional parties also had a good place. The dominant narrative today is a narrative of hope and aspiration.

Parties today are struggling to come up with a coherent narrative to attract and get the support of the people. We have entered into a phase of politics of hope and aspiration. If one is seen as somebody who can deliver, is capable, people are with him. It is no longer based on regionalism or caste. Caste as an institution has not yet disappeared. But there is a bigger narrative today. In last state elections in Bihar and UP, there were two different verdicts. Yet, one common feature in both the verdicts is, that the verdicts were based on that one narrative of hope and aspiration, not on caste, not on any regional sentiment, not on  any other extraneous factor.

The Bahubalis, the goondas, the criminals find it increasingly difficult in electoral arena.  It is a remarkable change that has happened in our political system. Indian state has evolved and Indian electorate has largely matured. Prior to independence, people like Mahatma Gandhi used to have skepticism about bringing democratic model of government in India. Literacy rate in India at that time was just 17%, today it is above 80%. His concern and fear used to be, for a country with such a low literacy rate, if you give them democracy, it could become mobocracy. Mobocracy meaning, somebody who can mislead a mob, mobs whether they are in Kashmir or Kanyakumari, they are mostly misled. Somebody can mislead them. This used to be the fear. But one need not have that fear anymore.

The advent of social media has transformed political discourse in this country. An educated young man can challenge a mighty powerful MLA publically. A politician, when he speaks, need to be careful. One tweet can damage his political discourse. Today’s politics is very challenging and it is good for the country. Regionalism, casteism, communalism are no more dominant narratives. Many have a weakness of interpreting election results to suit their own thinking. Some had jumped to the conclusion that the UP result was because of communal polarization. But in fact, UP’s result was an outcome of the politics of hope and aspiration. The youth, irrespective of their religion, caste, had deserted their traditional political parties to vote for a leader or a party which they believed, represents their hope. So, we should not misread into this situation, misinterpret it. Writing on the wall today is, a politician has to be a responsible politician. He has to be capable, able to deliver. That gives hope that Indian democracy has evolved.

Even in recent past, there were TV debates whether we should have presidential form of government or continue to have parliamentary form of government as we practiced in last seven decades. Bur it would hardly matter for this country now as there is an evolved and matured electorate, and main stream media and social media can check political activism and ensure that one can no longer take people for a ride. As long as we have these institutions intact, forms hardly matter. Every form has its good and bad. If tomorrow all Indians decide to migrate to presidential form of democracy, there will be a change. We will still have our MPs to elect. We will still have our parliament. But one thing will happen. In a presidential form, it would be very difficult for Gujrals and Deva Gowdas to become Prime Ministers.

The challenge for us today is to keep the national foundation intact. No effort should be made to weaken the fabric of this nation. When there is a discourse on Kashmir, it cannot be to weaken the national foundation of this country. Do not weaken that, but over that foundation, let hundred types of politics flourish. Let there be moon as a demand, let sky be the limit. But the basis is Indian nationhood, which is defined by Indian constitution.

* This article is a summary of the inaugural address delivered by Shri Ram Madhav,

National General Secretary of BJP and Director of India Foundation at the national conference on

State Politics in India and  launch of the book with the same title organized by

Nehru Memorial Museum and Library at New Delhi on 17th May, 2017.

(This article is carried in the print edition of November-December 2017 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

Blood-Buddhas: Link between Global Terror and Heritage Theft

How much does a terrorist attack cost? Where does the money come from? How does the money get through to terror groups? How are far-off countries like India, an integral part of the terror-funding network?

While Indian media was busy justifying and communalising the issue; international agencies like the UNSC and Antiques Coalition  publishedsome shocking data on terror-funding and its linkage to heritage-theft. Media’s penchant for pseudo-news and malleable narratives ensured that this critical topic got no coverage whatsoever, in India.

How Much Does a
Terrorist Attack Cost?

Here is what we know. It is surprisingly cheap to orchestrate a terror-attack; even one large enough to shake the world. The 2015 terror-attacks in Paris, as an example, cost only $88,160 (Rs 56 lakh). Interestingly, only $22,570 (Rs 14 lakh) was spent on patently criminal activities (like making false IDs and acquiring weapons). The rest of it, about $65,590 (Rs 42 lakh), went towards phone calls, car-rentals, travel… the seemingly harmless simple stuff. ISIS took 130 lives for the price of a small flat in Delhi.

Where Does the Money Come From?

Now, this is where it gets really interesting. Terror-funding sources like oil, money-laundering, and narcotics have dominated the public perception and media-narrative. This image fits in well with the optics of a Bollywood-ish villain, that funds an evil empire through ‘traditional’ ill-gotten gains.

What doesn’t fit into that image though, is the “villain” selling stolen rag-tag antiquities to fund terror. That is how we miss what is right before our eyes. The United Nations Security Council passed resolution 2199 saying exactly that. That ISIS was stealing and smuggling heritage artifacts to fund their terror-operations. USA quickly followed suit passing “H.R.2285 – Prevent Trafficking in Cultural Property Act,” recognising “trafficking of cultural property” as a “homeland security” issue; not an art or heritage concern limited to cocktail evenings at museums and high-society dinners.

In short, heritage from across the world is being peddled, so that bombs can be thrown back at us.

How Does India Fit In?

Between 2011 and 2016, the declared imports of antiquities into USA grew by almost 50 percent. That sure is a phenomenal growth rate. More so, for a product or market that is not new or fancy. Of the $147 million worth arts/antiquities traded in 2016, $79 million worth came from India. Compare that to Iraq at only $2.5 million.

In short, more than half of USA’s arts/antiquities imports had their origins in India.

When you view this in the context of India’s CAG report (India’s official review and audit agency); commenting on ASI (India’s official agency responsible for preventing heritage-crimes); they chose to not mince words and describe the agency’s efforts as “completely ineffective”.

To add to this, a recent High Court ruling in India had “not come across even a single case, where the persons involved in smuggling the Idols out of the country have been independently prosecuted…”.

The team at India Pride Project posts regular updates on heritage-thefts. Interestingly, most of those thefts are not even officially reported by the local police. No wonder multinational-terror groups chose India for its ripe, repercussion-free, pickings.

The National Security Conundrum

Heritage-destruction has been an integral part of civilisational conquests. Nazis destroyed Jewish art; and we all know what happened with the Bamiyan Buddhas. What is new though, is where new age terrorists are taking this deplorable act.

Well-organised crimes, their operational mechanics, and terror-funding are such complicated, intertwined networks, that it takes a while to comprehend the very complexity of their nature. Heritage crimes, treasonous non-state actors, the deep state, and international terror-networks; are all part of the same venn-diagram, with non-linear intersections.

Take the example of Partha Pratim Roy Burman’s kidnapping. The ransom money of Rs 4 crores was diverted towards planning the 9/11 attack in New York. What looked like a simple case of kidnapping, was later found to involve Mohammad Atta, Aftab Ansari, ISI and the Jihadi network.

As Lt Gen. Ata Hasnain puts it, “Protecting the nation, is not just about placing armies on our borders any more”. The termite-like enemy within, is now as dangerous as the enemy outside. India needs to recognise marks of hybrid-warfare right before our eyes.

Major General Dhruv Katoch, in a slightly unrelated context said, “If you can target them, when they are targeting you, then you have achieved some sort of a deterrent stability.” Unfortunately, India has not been able to target or successfully prosecute even one significant heritage-criminal to date. There goes our ability to create a deterrent; for the very criminals that are selling away our heritage, so they can throw bombs at us.

The biggest Psy Ops (psychological operations) success our opponents have had, is making us believe that the “heritage-crimes” issue is (a) Localised, and (b) a Ministry-of-Culture issue. Fact is, it is not limited to either. (Case in point — the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) has been prosecuting these international networks, not the ASI, as one would have traditionally assumed.)

The model is so simplistic in its brilliance, that people find it hard to believe someone could pull it off –

(A) Criminals and insurgents loot away our temples (puncturing the social-fabric locally), and

(B) ISIS helps with the international segment of the sale (generating revenues for terror operations).

We know each of these statements to be true in isolation. We’ve just not stitched them together; and evaluated the implication.

Why We All are Wrong?

The collective consciousness has gotten two facts drastically wrong. So let me correct them for you:

  1. It actually is quite inexpensive to fund a terror-attack; and
  2. It actually is very lucrative, and risk-free, to trade in stolen heritage.

Once you put these two together, you have a potent, dangerous, flammable mix, ready to explode in your face. Antiques Coalition suggests an example. With the gains from selling one Buddha sculpture (stolen from Mathura, illicitly sold for $ 1 million); terrorists could literally fund a dozen Paris-type attacks.

To put that in an extrapolated perspective — That’s 1,500 lives that could be lost, by smuggling out ONE piece of Indian heritage.

Let that sink in for a minute!

So paradoxically, though Lord Buddha spent every waking minute spreading the world of peace and co-existence; terrorists today, are using his very image to fund quite the opposite.

In Conclusion

You and I are regular people. We don’t think like the ISIS; we don’t get into their heads; and that’s exactly what encourages them. National security agencies are still chasing only narcotics and counterfeit currency operations, conveniently barking up the wrong tree, just because it fits into a traditional, comfortable construct.

Make no mistake. Just because we have our heads in the sand, doesn’t means that terrorists do too. Collective ignorance and Government apathy, acts like a pep-pill for them to push the pedal (on funding terror through heritage-crimes).

Unfortunately, that pedal is in a van that’s headed straight at us.

*Anuraag Saxena is based in Singapore. He is passionate about Indian heritage and culinary-history. He has been featured/published in BBC, Economic Times, Sunday Guardian, Doordarshan, Man’s World, Swarajya, Panchajanya and Organiser; and leads India Pride Project (www.ipp.org.in). He tweets at @anuraag_saxena.

(This article is carried in the print edition of November-December 2017 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

Guru-Shishya Tradition of India Vs. the Fake Baba Phenomenon

Amidst the debate and criticism of the ‘Baba’ phenomenon (referring to pseudo gurus), the concept that got tarnished is the Vedic Guru-Shishya tradition of India. In the present times, the situations are igniting widespread examination of the Babas and their instrumentality. Being infuriated by the shocking revelations unfolding from the fictitious cover of spirituality and religion, almost everybody has jumped in to hold opinions on the subject of faith, belief, and the mode of access to God. The whistle-blowers are on their way to paint every institution and religious leader with the same brush. The westernised intelligentsia has been fast to coin words such as ‘self-styled Godmen’ and ‘Dera Heads’.

It’s true and appreciated that through advanced communication means, falsity and ill deeds throbbing in the garb of fake babas are getting exposed. However, by generalising it for the entire fraternity of Spiritual Gurus and going to the extent of questioning as to why a person needs any mediator between him and God at all, is alarming. The intelligentsia is hell bent on proving that either devotees do not have brains or they don’t use it while following the Babas, as in their view all Gurus are fake. However, by mocking and ruling out the very need of Guru and one’s attempt towards seeking refuge of the Guru, a serious damage is being done to the “Guru-Shishya Parampara” – the age old Guru-disciple tradition of ‘Bharat.’

India is a land of seers and saints like Adiguru Shankaracharya, Maharishi Aurobindo, Ramakrishna Paramhansa, Yogananda Paramhansa, Swami Ram Tirtha, Chaitanya Mahaprabhu, Gautama Buddha, Mahavira Swami, and alike. Open any Hindu scripture and it starts with salutations to the revered Gurus. All sacred texts of wisdom, which are in fact the repositories of supremely advanced life sciences, hail and hold the sages in high esteem.

In this purview, can we actually bury the tradition of enlightened Gurus and their disciples just because many fake Babas have cropped up to exploit the tradition? Or, do we have the complete basis to label that ‘Brahmveta Satgurus’ (Spiritual Masters established in Brahman, the Supreme) were only an occurrence in the past? However, the majority of saints named above belong to the current era. For instance, Maharishi Aurobindo has been named as the lead crusader in the struggle for India’s independence.

Here is an excerpt from the foreword written by the former Chief Justice of India, Shri Ranganath Mishra on May 13, 1991 for the book ‘The Guru Tradition’ by Adiguru Dakshinamurthi – “Guru according to Hindu way of thinking is an incarnation of God in human form for the Shishya (disciple). God is universal; the Guru is personal in relationship. Education in the true sense enlightens the person undergoing the process. The inner eye does not open and learning does not get transformed into knowledge until the blessings of the Guru are showered.”

Such is the belief and practice of the Guru-tradition of India. No parallels can be drawn between fake Babas and genuine preceptors or the ‘Brahmveta Satgurus’. Therefore, it is important to understand that, as per the Hindu philosophy, who is a true Guru and why do we need one.

According to the Hindu philosophy, a true Guru is a seer, i.e. the one who has the direct perception of the Soul or pure Consciousness and can open the Third Eye of the seeker and show him/her as well the divine Lord within. This definition is well-recorded and emphasised repeatedly in all authentic scriptures worldwide. A few references are cited as follows –

Akhand  mandalaakaaram,  vyaaptamyena  charaacharam

Tatpadam darshitamyena, tasmaishri guravenamaha

(The Guru Gita)

Meaning, I offer my salutations to the Guru who enables me to “perceive” (darshitam) the hidden yet predominant God element in the cosmos.

Gharmeinghar dekhaayi de, so Satgurpurakhsujaan

(Sri Guru Granth Sahib)

– Hail the one as the true Spiritual Guru, who “shows” the Supreme Lord within the human garb.

The Bible also highlights the need and role of the Guru. It says–

I am the gate; whoever enters through me will be saved. (John 10:9)

First seek the counsel of the Lord. (1 Kings 22:5)

And, when an aspirant seeks refuge of such a counsel, then–

Blessed are the pure in heart, for they shall see God. (Matthew 5:8)

Highlighting “perception or realisation” as the underlying basis of spirituality, Swami Vivekananda has unequivocally stated, “If there is a God we must see Him; if there is a soul we must perceive it; otherwise it is better not to believe. It is better to be an outspoken atheist than a hypocrite.”

It is for this direct perception of the spirit within the human body, i.e. the realisation of the Soul, that one needs a Guru. As a corollary, it goes to say that the one who does not give this direct perception or entangles an aspirant in plethora of theories or outward performances and rituals is not a true Guru. Swami Vivekananda also exposed fake Gurus of his time, while carrying out his search for a genuine one. The basis of those exposes was the core question of the Vedanta philosophy – ‘Can you show me God?’ Verily, it is categorically this experience of the element of divinity, i.e. the Soul within the frame of one’s body that makes a true Guru stand higher and distinct from the fake and fraud ones.

Therefore, while we expose the fake religious leaders and their unlawful activities, we also need to sensitise masses and make them aware of the true and genuine ones. As we uphold the tenets of unbiased analysts and expose the frauds done in the name of religion, we must also inform people as to what the true religion is.

Subsequently, if we lack the understanding of true spirituality or religion, then we must refrain from generalising on these subjects. Those who are taking upon the duty to tell the reality of the fake babas must also go into the detail of the Guru-Shishya tradition and tell people that true and genuine Gurus also exist and how one must differentiate between the two. If we neglect this balance and paint every saint as a fake one, we would do a serious disservice to the spiritual identity and glory of India, which is known for its spiritual Gurus, the mystics, and the enlightened masters.

*Sadhvi Dr. Nidhi Bharti holds a Ph.D. in Operational Research from

Delhi University and she is associated with Divya Jyoti Jagrati Sansthan.

(This article is carried in the print edition of November-December 2017 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

SAGAR – India’s Vision for the Indian Ocean Region

Over the millenia, the Indian Ocean and the monsoons have not only shaped the destiny of India, but of all countries in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India is, and has always been, a maritime nation. It is home to some of the oldest seaports in the world and historically has had extensive maritime links with Africa, Gulf, Mediterranean, South East Asia and the Far East. The waters of the Indian Ocean have not only carried commerce but have borne India’s culture, religion, and ideas far and wide. India’s location at the very centre of the Indian Ocean has linked us with other cultures, shaped our maritime trade routes, and influenced our strategic thought.

Today, the Indian Ocean is one of the busiest and most critical maritime transportation links in the world. Almost a hundred thousand ships a year pass through these waters, carrying about half of the world’s container shipments, one-third of the world’s bulk cargo traffic and two-thirds of the oil shipments. The fact that three quarters of this traffic is headed for destinations beyond the region underlines the fact that the Indian Ocean is of vital importance well beyond the shores of the littoral states.

The economies of many of the littoral countries depend heavily on the ports, the shipping, and most importantly, the vast natural resources that enrich these waters with an abundance of marine life. For India, of course, the Indian Ocean is of vital importance – we have an extensive coastline of 7,500 km and several hundred islands between Lakshadweep in the west and the Andaman and Nicobar islands in the east. Our southernmost tip is just 90 nautical miles from Indonesia. Our Exclusive Economic Zone is 2.4 million square kilometres and 90% of our trade by volume and almost all of our oil imports come through the sea. Clearly, it is but natural that India’s role as the key pivot in the Indian Ocean region is a given, not only geographically but by virtue of a shared historical and cultural heritage that binds us all across these waters.

Our vision for the Indian Ocean Region, therefore, is to preserve its organic unity while advancing cooperation. We will use our capabilities for the collective well being, and the mutual benefit of our maritime neighbours and island states in building their capabilities. As we envisage the Indian Ocean as an engine for growth and prosperity in our region and beyond, it is of utmost importance that these waters remain safe and secure. We consider it an imperative that
those who live in this region bear the primary responsibility for the peace, stability and prosperity of the Indian Ocean.

This vision was enunciated by Prime Minister Modi in March 2015 when he put forward the concept of SAGAR – “Security and Growth for All in the Region”. This is a clear, high-level articulation of India’s vision for the Indian Ocean. SAGAR has distinct but inter-related elements and underscore India’s engagement in the Indian Ocean. These are enhancing capacities to safeguard land and maritime territories & interests; deepening economic and security cooperation in the littoral; promoting collective action to deal with natural disasters and maritime threats like piracy, terrorism and emergent non-state actors; working towards sustainable regional develop-ment through enhanced collaboration; and, engaging with countries beyond our shores with the aim of building greater trust and promoting respect for maritime rules, norms and peaceful resolution of disputes. The principles enshrined in SAGAR provide us with a coherent framework to address some of the challenges relating to economic revival, connectivity, security, culture and identity, and India’s own evolving approach to these issues. The challenge before us is to ensure intra-ocean trade and investment, and the sustainable harnessing of the wealth of the seas, including food, medicines and clean energy.

A related aspect is the emergence of the ‘Blue Economy’ as a promising new pillar of prosperity in the region, with immense economic and employment potential. We are already engaging our neighbours in Blue Economy initiatives, particularly in the areas of marine bio-technology, exploration and sustainable exploitation of ocean mineral resources, sustainable fishing practices, and harnessing of ocean energy.

In India, we are implementing targeted programmes for re-energising economic activity in our islands and our coastal areas. There is also a renewed focus on strengthening marine research, developing eco-friendly marine industrial technologies, promoting sustainable fisheries and, ensuring the protection of the maritime environment. We remain committed to extending port connectivity among the littoral states of the Indian Ocean and beyond. This is the objective behind the Sagarmala initiative, which aims to establish new ports and modernise old ones.

It is only natural, therefore, that connectivity is one of the major themes of Prime Minister Modi’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy. We continue to work on a range of projects to improve maritime logistics in Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. Our other initiatives include
the Kaladan transport project leading to Sittwe port in Myanmar; the Trilateral Highway to Thailand; and, the Chabahar port project in Iran.

But most of all, for the Indian Ocean economic revival to be sustainable, the waters must not only be better connected but they should remain free from non-traditional and traditional threats that could impede the seamless movement of goods, people and ideas. Security is fundamental to the ‘SAGAR’ vision. If the revitalized maritime economy of the Indian Ocean region is to be a force for global economic growth in the coming years, it is essential that the waters remain peaceful, stable and secure. It is imperative too, that all stake holders abide by a rules-based global order. The Indian Ocean is prone to non-traditional security threats like piracy, smuggling, maritime terrorism, illegal fishing, and trafficking of humans and narcotics. We realize that to effectively combat transnational security challenges across the Indian Ocean, including those posed by non-state actors, it is important to develop a security architecture that strengthens the culture of cooperation and collective action.

The success of maritime cooperative action against piracy in the Gulf of Aden is an example of the benefits of a cooperative approach which resulted in a dramatic decline in piracy incidents in the region. India is prepared to bear its share of responsibility in this regard. Our response to security challenges in the Indian Ocean will be based on our national capabilities, complemented by participation in relevant regional platforms.

India is a founding member of the Contact Group on Piracy and has actively participated in anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden and off the Horn of Africa; and, undertaken joint EEZ patrols off the waters of Maldives, Seychelles, and Mauritius.

An effective response mechanism to address humanitarian crises and natural disasters is perhaps the most visible element of the evolving Indian Ocean security strategy. In recent years, India has promptly responded to humanitarian crisis, whether man-made or natural, in its neighbourhood. Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) form an important part of our outreach efforts.

Indian ships were involved in the safe evacuation of over 2,000 Indian expatriates and over 1,300 foreign nationals from Yemen in April 2015. We carried out rescue missions in Libya, Lebanon and Somalia. India has been the “first responder” to calls of assistance – providing relief supplies and medical assistance to flood ravaged peoples of Sri Lanka in June 2017 or to rescuing Bangladeshis swept off the coast due to cyclone Mora or to alleviating the acute drinking water crisis in Maldives in 2014 when we airlifted 1,000 tonnes of fresh water to Male. India also dispatched cyclone relief materials to Fiji in February 2016.

Indian Ocean Conference provides an opportunity to deepen our understanding of the economic and strategic importance of the Indian Ocean. An understanding of the myriad synergies that bring this region together and connect it to the world beyond is not just an academic exercise, but an imperative if we are to succeed in evolving a meaningful cooperative strategy for ensuring peace, progress and prosperity in this region.

This underlies India’s own approach to its maritime neighborhood – we see the Indian Ocean as not just a water body, but a global stage for continued economic, social, and cultural dialogue.

 *This article is a summary of the inaugural address delivered bySmt. Sushma Swaraj,
Minister of External Affairs, Government of India, on31st August, 2017 at
the 2nd Indian Ocean Conference at Colombo, Sri Lanka organised by India Foundation.

 (This article is carried in the print edition of November-December 2017 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

IOR: Promoting Peace, Progress and Prosperity

India Ocean is destined to define the future of the world. Sri Lanka, located enviably in the
centre of the Indian Ocean is well poised to play a significant role in determining this future. Our shores are washed by the waters of this great ocean. It has shaped us as a distinct people. Our future development is intrinsically linked to it and we share responsibility in keeping its waters safe. We believe, as people of the Indian Ocean, “Peace, Progress and Prosperity” are goals that need to be pursued together. We will continue to take a leading role, in bringing our partners in the Indian Ocean together to deliberate on issues of importance to all of us.

We are meeting at a time when global and financial economic power shifts point towards Asia. The global economic power rebalance – away from the established advanced economies in North America, Europe and Japan, will continue well into the latter part of the century. Economic dominance, technology and military might, the basis of political power in the West has eroded to a significant extent by the extraordinary economic development of Asia in the last 50 years. The ‘HSBC World in Forecast 2050’ forecasts 19 countries from Asia to be the largest economies by 2050. By 2030 Asia is expected to surpass the West in terms of global power, based on population, GDP, technology and military spending. It is also estimated that, by that time, the unipolar world would be replaced by a multipolar one with USA, China, India, Germany, Japan and Russia positioned as key players.

These predictions are reassured by the recent Price Water House Coopers (PWC) Report: World in 2050. It concludes that 13 (Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Iran) out of 32 countries predicted to be leading economies of the world, will be from the Indian Ocean Region. This reality will increase our strategic importance in the globe.

In practical terms, some countries in Asia have already taken over the advanced Western countries in purchasing power parity. Despite projected slowdown, it is predicted that the Chinese economy will supersede the US economy by 2028. India has shown great potential to become the second largest economy in the world in terms of Purchasing Power Parity by 2050. Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are also predicted to achieve remarkable rates in economic growth and to have great potential to take over some of the western countries in the Purchasing Power Parity by 2030. As a region, ASEAN is poised to cover thirty percent of the global GDP, once the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement among the ASEAN countries is concluded.

Despite these promising predictions, intra trade in the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal as well as East Asia remains historically low. South Asia remains the least economically integrated region in the world. Intra-regional trade accounts for only 5 percent of South Asia’s total trade, compared to 25 percent in ASEAN. Intra-regional investment is smaller than 1 percent of overall investment. There are several reasons for this setback. They stem from gaps in our policy infrastructure, mistrust and political tension among major countries, and mindset of certain communities. The Bay of Bengal will be in the strategic spotlight as one of the key transit zones between the Indian and Pacific regions and the pivotal points for maritime security across the Indo Pacific littorals. However, if we could overcome these challenges, the current trade volume of USD 28 billion could grow up to USD 100 billion only in South Asia. In future, the South East Asia economies put together, its minimum viable economic power and its trade volume will be bigger than that of North American Free Trade Agreement.

Regrettably, we are yet to workout multilateral agreements to promote trade in this region. In the circumstances, bilateral trade agreements between littoral countries will substitute Regional Intra Trade. The Government of Sri Lanka has decided to enter into bilateral agreements with the neighboring littoral states without waiting for regional arrangements to be finalized.

We have already entered into Free Trade Agreements with India and Pakistan. We are in the process of deepening our FTA with India to enable greater cooperation. We will finalize a FTA with Singapore and commence negotiations with other littoral states. We are also planning to engage with other countries in the Bay of Bengal Region through Free Trade Agreements so that we reap the benefits of economic potential of the Bay in the future. We will also expand the FTA with Pakistan.

Sri Lanka’s development as a shipping, air and business hub will contribute to the development of intra regional trade. I trust that the Economic growth in our region can only be accelerated by increasing intra regional trade and infrastructure development for connectivity. It should aim at creating a route to enter into global value chain by creating a regional value chain. This will provide the opportunity for countries such as Sri Lanka to indentify tradable factors in our national economy. Development of infrastructure and connectivity will not be sufficient for Sri Lanka to enhance its trade. We need our governments to commit fully to multilateral trading in order to enhance intra regional trade development. These include:

  • Preventing protectionist trade measures
  • Implementing ease of doing business measures
  • Commitment to the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement
  • Removing high tariffs – para tariffs and non tariff barriers over agreed time period.

As Indian Ocean partners we can build a policy infrastructure to improve the regional intra trade. We invite one of the Indian Ocean littoral States to host the first meeting of interested littoral states on developing a “Policy framework to promote Intra Regional Trade within an agreed time period.”

Businesses in the Region must grow for intra-regional trade to develop. These Businesses require capital for expansion, which is a scarce commodity. The establishment of an Indian Ocean Development Fund will make such financing available. The Fund will make financial facilities available to National Development Banks which promote growth and expansion by providing capital. To this end, one of the options is to establish a Development Financing Institute for business expansion in the region.

China’s One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR) is a tool for our development. China announced the concept back in 2013, and we see after four years it has gained significant economic momentum. OBOR connects Asia, Europe and Africa, and passes through more than 65 countries and regions with a population of about 4.4 billion and a third of the global economy. In Sri Lanka’s view this initiative serves as a platform for member countries of OBOR to contribute to the global value chain. The OBOR has added fresh impetus to China and the rest of the world to promote regional cooperation and presented numerous opportunities for foreign companies to be involved.

Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy”, which is an evolution and development of the idea of the “Confluence of the Two Seas”, will also be a channel for creating a broad region. The “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy” foresees a broad region connecting two oceans – the Pacific and Indian Oceans, will include both Asia and Africa. It is designed to promote stability and prosperity of this region as a whole. Sri Lanka sees growing convergence of ideas in terms of maritime cooperation between the Indo-Pacific regions will also derive economic benefits to the Indian Ocean region.

The vital Sea Lanes of Communication in the Indian Ocean that fuels the global economy needs to be open for all and must be used for mutual benefit in a sustainable manner. It is essential to maintain peace and stability in the Indian Ocean Region which will ensure rights of all states to the freedom of navigation and over flight and unhindered lawful maritime commerce are conducted in keeping with current international laws and regulations. In terms of Maritime build up taking place in the Indian Ocean, we see major players such as India, Australia, USA, China, and Japan envisaging various projects ranging from ocean excavation to placing remote sensors for ocean research. The latter three having their forward naval presence, will play a greater role in maritime affairs. This will also lead to Naval power competitions, which will foresee sea control as well as denials on navigation.

There are 10 critical choke points in the Indian Ocean that remain vulnerable to air and maritime encounters and possible terrorist attacks by non-state actors. Given the rising conflicts in the Middle East and West Asia, world’s major powers have deployed substantial military forces in the Indian Ocean Region. This trend will continue to be same at least for some more decades until such time that the world community gets together and resolve causes for these conflicts.

These traditional and modern security concerns are yet to be addressed internationally. Articles 34 – 56 of UNCLOS are insufficient to deal with the concerns that are related to freedom of navigation in the Indian ocean. Therefore, Sri Lanka intends working with all its partners in creating a shared vision for economic and security engagement. A code of conduct that ensures the freedom of navigation in this Ocean will be an essential component of this vision. In this regard, Sri Lanka will soon commence exploratory discussions on convening a meeting to deliberate on a stable legal order on freedom of navigation and over flight in the Indian Ocean. Taking such a course of action will enable the littoral states to take the initiative to manage competition and determine our own fate.

Maintaining the freedom of navigation is of paramount importance for Sri Lanka to become the hub in the Indian Ocean. It is only then that this country will be able to reap the full benefits of strategic location as well as the availability of ports on all coasts and two international airports with good land connectivity. The air and sea connectivity will naturally promote logistics. Colombo will also be a center for offshore finance and business. Finally Sri Lanka will offer a platform as a manufacturing and service hub enjoying preferential access to the EU markets.

Sri Lanka decided to develop the ports, especially the Hambantota port which some claim to be a military base. Sri Lanka does not enter into military alliances with any country or make bases available to foreign countries in its ports or airports. It will continue military cooperation such as training, supply of equipment and taking part in joint exercises with friendly countries. Only the Sri Lanka Armed Forces have the responsibility for military activity in its ports and airports. We are also working with foreign private investors on the commercial development of our ports.

Sri Lanka is open to trade with all its partners. We aim to become as in the past, a destination of choice for all those looking to tap in to the potential of the Indian Ocean. I look forward to engaging with all interested littoral states in creating a “policy framework to promote intra regional trade within a time line” so that economic activity in the Indian Ocean region can be enhanced. We intend taking leading role in initiating a legal order in the Indian Ocean to ensure freedom of navigation. It is our belief that if we all work for these common objectives, sustainable peace and prosperity in our region can be undoubtedly achieved.

*This article is a summary of the speech delivered by Shri Ranil Wickremesinghe,Prime Minister of Sri Lanka on 31st August, 2017 at the 2nd Indian Ocean Conference at Colombo, Sri Lanka organised by India Foundation.

(This article is carried in the print edition of November-December 2017 issue of India Foundation Journal.)

North East Development Summit

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North East Development Summit” to be held on 21-22 November 2017 at Imphal, Manipur, is an effort to highlight and explore the potential of North East India in further establishing itself as a land hub of India’s Act East Policy. The Northeast is a natural partner in India’s ‘Act East Policy’, being our land bridge to Association for South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Act East Policy is a means to strengthen the stability, economy and prospects of our North Eastern region. The Act East Policy can significantly factor in ending the geographical isolation of India’s North Eastern Region and transforming it into a bridgehead for India to the booming ASEAN markets and its extended neighbourhood. Given the economic potential as well as the geo-political importance of the region the North East Region lies at the core of India’s Act East Policy. The focus is now on economic development and addressing ‘trust deficit’. The opening up of the landlocked NER economically to ASEAN countries and extended neighbours is considered as a potent means of conflict transformation.The aspect of economic linkages should be explored and nurtured to further strengthen ties and contribute in the development of the North-East India.

Key Focus Areas:

  • Trade& Investment
  • Connectivity& Infrastructure Development
  • Tourism Development in North-East India
  • Skill Development, Capacity Building and Entrepreneurship

Smart Border Management Conference 2017

 

The 2nd edition of the conference on ‘Smart Border Management‘ was organised by India Foundation in partnership with FICCI at the FICCI auditorium on 18-19 September 2017. The conference brought various stakeholders together on a common platform to address the fundamental challenge of border management: How to enhance trans-border movement of peoples, goods and ideas while simultaneously restricting all forms of illegal activities across the borders?

Mr. KirenRijiju, Minister of State for Home Affairs, Government of India, in his inaugural address underlined the need for enhanced coordination and collaboration among diverse government agencies and stakeholders besides adoption of technology and change in the mindset for stepping up India’s border management system. With respect to mindsets, the Minister said that other countries encourage civilian settlements in border areas and promote trade and commerce there. These areas are well connected by surface communication means and have all amenities as available in the hinterland. India, on the other hand has isolated its border areas and restricted civilian movement and commerce. He said it was imperative to develop our border areas and promote commercial activity in all such areas.

 

Mr. Rijiju said that the engagement of multiple agencies in border management was resulting in delay of implementation of policies and adoption of technology. He cited an example where the tedious tender process and other formalities caused unwarranted delay in installing a full body scanner and emphasised the need to address such issues immediately. He said that the government is working towards improving security and infrastructure in border areas and along the coast and that national security cannot be compromised at any cost. Towards this, the government is working towards strengthening marine police to secure India’s long coastal borders. He added that to make India’s border management system robust, secure and well-guarded, it was essential to have seamless coordination between policy makers and defence and security agencies.

Mr. Rijiju informed the audience that for sealing the India-Pakistan border, a smart technology aided fence will be in position by December 2018. He also highlighted the fact that India believes that borders were not for dividing people but for bringing them together and engaging in trade and commercial activities for bringing prosperity.

On the occasion, the Minister released the FICCI-PwC Report ‘Smart Border Management – Indian Coastal &Maritime Security’.

Dr. Subhash Bhamre, Minister of State for Defence, Government of India, said that varying challenges were posed by each border state in India. The major challenges in border security were cross-border terrorism, insurgency, infiltration, narcotics, separatists’ movement and smuggling. There was a need for coordinated and concerted efforts to strengthen policing and guarding of border areas while developing infrastructure. He added that power of technology was needed to be leveraged for effective border management system.

Speaking about Comprehensive Integrated Border Management System (CIBMS), which has been deployed by the Government of India on a pilot basis on select terrains to boost India’s security systems, Mr. K. K. Sharma, Director General, Border Security Force (BSF), said that the main components of the system were virtual fencing, command and control system, response mechanism, power backup, maintenance and training. He added with the adoption of CIBMS, India was looking at moving towards network-centric surveillance from human-centric to counter the limitations of human resource. He added adoption of advanced technology and reduced human resource intervention was needed to strengthen India’s defence systems.

Mr. Rajan Luthra, Co-Chair, FICCI Committee on Homeland Security & Head, Special Projects, Chairman’s Office, Reliance Industries Ltd., said that smart borders on one hand should allow seamless movement of authorised people and goods, while on the other, minimise cross border security challenges using innovation and technology enablement. Adoption of advanced technologies for border control and surveillance, and the development of integrated systems for capture and exchange of data will facilitate enhanced effectiveness of the operational agencies with enhanced security. He added that over the long term, smart border management will also have to incorporate systems that digitally monitor patterns of activity through and around border areas to root out organised crime and anti-national events.

In his theme presentation, Mr. DhirajMathur, Partner & Leader, Aerospace and Defence, PwC India, said that the FICCI-PwC report elucidates the present status of various programmes that have been undertaken by the government, both in the hinterland and in coastal states. It highlights the efforts required for enhancing costal and maritime security with support from industry, especially on the technology, infrastructure and capacity building fronts, and for building an integrated and collaborative coastal and maritime security management framework.

In his special address on ‘Countering Transnational Organised Crime through Effective Border Management,’ Mr. Sergey Kapinos, Representative – The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Regional Office for South Asia, said that UNODC is formulating an action plan for 2018 – 21 which will spell out the threat assessment of transnational organised crime in South Asia. The details of the plan will be shared with countries of the region to enable them to take effective and timely measures for putting in place an integrated border management system.

Transnational organised crime manifests in many forms, including trafficking in drugs, firearms and even persons. At the same time, organised crime groups exploit human mobility to smuggle migrants and undermine financial systems through money laundering. The vast sums of money involved can compromise legitimate economies and directly impact public processes by ‘buying’ elections through corruption. It yields high profits for its culprits and results in high risks for individuals who fall victim to it. Every year, countless individuals lose their lives at the hand of criminals involved in organised crime, succumbing to drug – related health problems or injuries inflicted by firearms, or losing their lives as a result of the unscrupulous methods and motives of human traffickers and smugglers of migrants.

Mr. Kapinos said integrated border management needs to be developed as an integral part of the overall national security system in close coordination with neighbouring countries as improving security unilaterally will amount to nothing if not implemented cooperation with border States. Organised crime has diversified, gone global and reached macro – economic proportions: illicit goods may be sourced from one continent, trafficked across another, and marketed in a third. Transnational organised crime can permeate government agencies and institutions, fuelling corruption, infiltrating business and politics, and hindering economic and social development. And it is undermining governance and democracy by empowering those who operate outside the law.

Mr. Ram Madhav, National General Secretary, BharatiyaJanta Party, while addressing the valedictory session of the conference said that the Government is working towards upgrading the capabilities of security agencies and developing physical infrastructure along with adopting technology for effective management of Indian borders. He said that several border posts of India were still not accessible for maintaining a vigil on the border, but in the next three to four years, the government was committed to connect each border post with a motorable road. Emphasising the importance of having good diplomatic relations with neighbouring countries to combat cross-border terrorism, Mr. Madhav said that recent example was the diffusing of Doklam situation where India was able to secure its interests without resorting to armed conflict. On the Rohingya issue, Mr. Madhav said that India was dealing with the situation from both the security and humanitarian angle.

Mr. Madhav urged FICCI and India Foundation to assist the government in strengthening relations with neighbouring countries by engaging with them on the economic front. He pointed out that it was expected that by 2025, the Indian Ocean Region would emerge as a strong economic power offering immense opportunities to the private sector. However, this would give rise to security concerns. To address such issues, India was upgrading its naval capabilities.

Dr. SanjayaBaru, Secretary General, FICCI, said that FICCI had been engaging with ASEAN and BIMSTEC and other neighbouring regions of India and would continue to strengthen ties with them. While the government is building and maintaining progressive diplomatic relations, the private sector was doing its bits to assist the government in this regard.

Maj. Gen Dhruv C. Katoch, Director, India Foundation, said that the two day conference had productive deliberations. The actionable points and outcome would be documented and presented to respective ministries and agencies for consideration and implementation.

 

World Summit on Counter Terrorism Inter Disciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel

Jihadi Terrorism in Af-Pak Region and its Regional Implications

September 13, 2017

SUMMIT REPORT

India Foundation hosted a workshop on the ‘Jihadi Terrorism in Af-Pak Region and its Regional Implications’ at the 17th World Summit on Counter Terrorism organised by Institute of Counter Terrorism, Herzliya, Israel. World Summit on Counter Terrorism is an annual event of the ICT, Herzliya, post the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

The specific subject was chosen by India Foundation to sensitise Western countries to the threat posed by Jihadi Terror in the Af-Pak region as earlier discussions on the subject were restricted to terrorism concerns that emanated from threats from the Middle East to the Western world. There was thus a need to shift the focus of the international community to acts of terrorism in the vicinity of the Indian subcontinent. The workshop was chaired byCapt (IN) AlokBansal, Director, India Foundation. The following speakers participated:

 

  • Shri Amar Sinha, Former Ambassador and Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, India,
  • Michael Barak, Senior Researcher, ICT, Inter Disciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel,
  • Shri Milo Comerford, Analyst, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, United Kingdom
  • Peter Knoope, Associate Fellow and Former Director, International Centre for Counter Terrorism (ICCT), The Netherlands,
  • Jonathan Paris, Senior Advisor, Chertoff Group, United Kingdom.
  • Gen. (Ret.) Syed Ata Hasnain, Former Military Secretary & Army Corps Commander, Indian Army.
  • (Res.) Dr. Shaul Shay. Research Fellow, ICT and Director of Research, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS),
  • IDC, Herzliya, Israel was the respondent.

 

A gist of the points emphasized by the various speakers is given below.

 Capt. (IN) AlokBansal

The world view at the conference has been limited to Middle-East and the Western World, sometimes giving the impression that only the area between Israel and the United States was affected by terrorism. However, India has been affected by terrorism much before 9/11. A common narrative being propagated gives one an impression that the Middle East is the only arena of terror and everything will be perfect if Shia extremism, as reflected by Iran today, is countered. It tends to project global terror outfits like al Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) being in a state of decline and consequently, easy to tackle. This warped view also does not take into consideration, the existence of rogue nations like North Korea.

Ground realities however suggest that terror outfits like al Qaeda and IS are still a very major threat to global peace. Whilst it is true that the territory they control is shrinking, their influence is certainly not declining. A large number of youth continue to be driven towards these radical outfits, not because of any  sense of alienation or deprivation, but due to a theological narrative that justifies their actions. We cannot undermine the theological undertones of terrorism, as it is this which attracts youth across the globe. Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, though born in Middle East, moved to Af-Pak region as they believed that for theological validation, they needed to fight the war in Khorasan. Similarly IS also established a Khurasan Chapter, as soon as they had some presence in the region. It is essential to understand the theological underpinnings of terror and come up with a counter narrative. Since Khurasan incorporates Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is essential to understand the strands of terrorism there, because they will impact the whole world.

Ambassador Amar Sinha

While sitting in Israel and talking of terror, the outer boundary seems limited to Iran. One only has to glance at the map to realise that  Israel and India are two extremities between which various proxies, non state actors and non states are acting. The Taliban remains the most radical and obscurantist group that was created in 1994 to fight the anti USSR Afghan Mujahideen after the withdrawal of USSR. Pakistan desired a pliable government in Kabul and chose an ignorant village cleric, Mullah Omar to lead it till his death was announced in Pakistan two years ago. Mullah Omar had declared himself as Amir al-Mu’minin. The Taliban leadership operates from the safe havens in Pakistan, like al Qaida’s Ayman al-Zawahiri or Osama bin Laden till he was located and killed in Abbottabad. The Afghan Mujahideen groups also known as the Peshawar 7 were all based in Pakistan and ISI was the main channel for all material support that came from the USA, Saudi Arabia also China. The jihad was launched to fight the godless communists.  In a way, Taliban is a residue of this war.

The Taliban ran a government from 1996 to 2001, but controlled only 75 percent of the country and received recognition from only three nations—Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE while the Rabbani government retained the seat in the UN and existed in the North.Post 9/11, Taliban was given the option of handing over Osama bin Laden or facing US military. They chose the Pashtun tradition of standing by their guest. Their government collapsed within weeks and it required only a dozen of special forces supporting the Northern Alliance to do the job.

A number of myths exist about Taliban, the two most common being:

  • Taliban controls 50 percent of Afghan territory. This is an exaggeration.
  • Taliban has no global ambition and is a local insurgency. This is a self serving argument to downplay the threat of Taliban. A common saying in Afghanistan is that a good Taliban is a dead Taliban. This underlines how Taliban is viewed in that country.

When in power, the Afghan Taliban invited Osama bin Laden to the region. This created conditions for jihadists and foreign fighters of all shades to find a foothold in the region, to include al Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement and several India focussed Pakistani groups. As of now, Taliban is a predominantly Pashtun group and there are various conflicts happening at the same time. There is an intra-Pashtun jostling for power, with a desire to see Pashtuns prevail over the non-Pashtuns. There is also a fight against presence of infidel foreign troops and a fight over resources including drugs. Thus, there are many drivers of conflict beyond religion. Seeking power too is an important factor.  There is also the additional element of Pakistani policy of strategic depth and its search for reach beyond Afghanistan into Central Asia. Pakistan sees itself as the original Islamic state after Zia era. Pakistani Madrassas are churning out possible fighters in thousand.

With respect to Afghanistan, President Trump has departed from previous policy in that he has empowered military commanders and done away with artificial timelines. He has now linked US withdrawal to conditions on the ground. The policy also brings within its ambit the Pakistani nukes and the danger of it falling in the hands of the terrorists. The policy also underlines that fight and talk with Taliban will not go on together. Some of Afghan neighbours want US to fail for their own reasons, and leave the region. The situation in Afghanistan directly impacts India’s security. Taliban and Pakistan already boast of defeating one super power, and hope to do the same to the US.

Dr. Michael Barak: AQIS—The Neglected AQ’s Affiliate: A Growing Threat to the Region.

The rise of IS threatens the existence of al Qaeda. While IS was in focus of the entire world, al Qaeda become stronger at the same time. Aymanal-Zawahiri announced the AQIS (Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent) as its newest branch with an aim to broaden its influence in South Asia. AQIS is active in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. It has been targeting mosques in Pakistan, is active in Kashmir in India, is involved in acts of killing bloggers and LGBT activists in Bangladesh and is working against Buddhists in Myanmar. It believes in establishing Caliphate and the rule of Shariah. AQIS was involved in an attack on naval dockyard in Pakistan in September, 2014. It uses technology to meet its purposes, to include messaging services like Telegram, Twitter and YouTube. It also believes in promoting the idea of Maritime Jihad by targeting ships and naval trade routes and controlling the Indian Ocean. AQIS is different from IS in that it believes in winning hearts and minds of the people. It portrays itself as more liberal and modern than IS and believes in avoiding antagonising the civil society. AQIS aims to regroup and unite jihadi groups in South Asia.

AQIS believes in Ghazwa-e-Hind and aims to gain wider support among the people by focusing on domestic political agenda. For instance, they supported the protests against killing of the terrorist BurhanWani. Zakir Musa, the Kashmir leader of the AQIS has said that he wants to create an Islamic State in Kashmir. In Myanmar, AQIS has supported Rohingya cause and given a call to fight for them. Fighters from Bangladesh are now going to fight for the cause of Rohingya. AQIS has a strategic understanding and their capability should not be  underestimated.

Mr. Milo Comerford: ISIS & the Taliban—A battle of Ideas in Afghanistan. A lot of propaganda is being spewed by various groups and they have  differences in their theological understandings. We can now see the emergence of a Khorasan province in Afghanistan to build theological legitimacy. Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, Islamic State’s now-deceased spokesperson, announced an expansion of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s caliphate into the “Lands of Khorasan.” Militant violence escalated rapidly and Afghanistan saw more deaths from terrorism in 2015 than ever before in the country, with around 800 more casualties than in the previous year. The Taliban perhaps could have refashioned itself as a “moderate” alternative to ISIS brutality. Instead it doubled down, launching renewed attacks under sustained pressure, culminating in the brief capture of the city of Kunduz in September 2015. ISIS’s rise undoubtedly played a role as a catalyst for the commencement of a “race to the bottom” between militants, as the Taliban’s monopoly on anti-state violence diminished.

ISIS and the Taliban’s competing claims of legitimacy are framed in almost exclusively religious tones, while their criticisms of their rivals are primarily ideological. Taliban rhetoric and propaganda focuses on showing itself as a truer and more pious defender of Islam than its rival. The Taliban explicitly differentiates itself from ISIS by emphasising its adherence to Hanafi jurisprudence, one of the four orthodox Sunni schools, in line with the practice of the majority of Afghan Sunnis. According to Michael Semple, an expert on Taliban ideology, “Taliban opposition to ISIS rests on the movement’s well-established position of rejecting Salafism as an alien deviation from Afghan clerical tradition.” This is paradoxical as it gets support from Saudi. ISIS seeks to show that the Taliban is religiously ‘deviant’ and has criticised the group’s “significant Sharia mistakes.” But non-religious arguments are also being made by ISIS propaganda to broaden its appeal across Afghanistan. ISIS portrays the Taliban’s mission as being narrow and nationalistic, and by “emphasising the Pashtun-centric nature of the Taliban,” the group has worked to appeal to other rival ethnic groups, evidenced through its recruitment of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan to its cause.

Till date, there have been only three points of convergence between IS & al Qaeda and all these have been against Afghan forces. An analyst Obaid Ali has suggested that sympathy for ISIS is rising among young fighters and there are prospects of collaboration-against non-state targets too. In an attack on Hazara village where fifty Shia muslims were killed by a Taliban commander, he pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. IS commanders have said that they will sanction joint attacks with Taliban on Hazara Shias in Afghanistan. There are echoes of jihadi consolidation globally.

Mr. Jonathan Paris: Trends in Pakistan-related Terrorism.

Pakistan continues to sponsor terror from within its borders. India, for the first time, is announcing and mounting attacks on cross border terror groups. Despite all this, South Asia has limited state capacity in law enforcement and intelligence.

Pakistan is not a failed state but is a nuclear failing state but it continues to muddle through. Whilst politics in Pakistan may be dysfunctional and military may be involved in the political process, but Taliban is unlikely to make major inroads in Pakistan with support from mainstream society as long as military is cohesive, the public remains conservative and deep ethnic differences in Pakistan continue to remain muted. Today, it can be said that we are living in a security village where one country’s security depth is another country’s insecurity.

Mr. Peter Knoope: The Indian Subcontinent

In the early 20th century, Britain played the sectarian card and gave rise to tension by playing divide and rule. The animosity between India and Pakistan has its basis is religion and runs in the DNA of the region. ISI and Army in Pakistan are part of mixture of political and security arrangement. The general population of Pakistan is anti US/West, while in India, larger population is pro US.

Twenty percent population in Pakistan is Shia, which is the largest Shia population after Iran; in some parts it is even in the majority. But since 2004, there has been increased targeting of Shia population. In Bangladesh, the attack on the Holey bakery, which was claimed by IS, was an anti-Shia attack. There is increased presence and action by IS in India since 2014, with significant presence on Bangladesh border and Kerala. There is a deliberate attempt to increase the Wahhabi influence in India to create influence against Shias. The sectarian divide may shift in India from Hindu-Muslim to Shia-Sunni. There is a constant influence of external factors like that of China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, US and UK in the Indian Subcontinent and it is important that the governments respond.

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Syed Ata Hasnain: Terrorism & Hybrid Conflict in Kashmir—Its Effects on the Af-Pak Region.

There are historical similarities of security issues that face Israel and India. Both nations attained their independence around the same time. Immediately after independence, India faced a tribal attack from Pakistan while Israel faced attack from the Arab world. Israel won the important ‘Six Day War’ in 1967 and India won the war in 1971 against Pakistan which created Bangladesh. Israel saw the ideological threat of Muslim Brotherhood in Middle East while India witnessed the Jamat-e-Islami movement. Both were responsible for spread of Islamic radicalism. Islamic radicalism as we know it today, was born in the refugee camps on the boundary of Pakistan and Afghanistan where three million refugees had been displaced by the war in Afghanistan against the Soviet invasion. The first jihadi warriors (all transnational) of the world were financed by Saudi Arabia, armed by the US and aided by Pakistan’s ISI. The trend of using radical Jihadism to unite fighters and link the target populace with the ideological sponsors (in this case Saudi Arabia and Pakistan) became a model which was then attempted in Chechnya, Bosnia and Kashmir.

Pakistan’s strategy against India is to flood Kashmir with foreign terrorists and motivate the locals to pick up arms. The foreign terrorists are experienced fighters from the war in Afghanistan. There are Pakistani fighters too, from its bad lands, jails (death row) and even a few HIV patients who were motivated to die for the Islamic cause to atone for their sins. A lot of financial assistance comes from Saudi Arabia, primarily for converting the local Sufi ideology to a more radical strain of Salafism. The Kashmiri Sufi clergy with mosques have been replaced to some extent by Salafi oriented clergy from Central India. Despite this, the population of Kashmir today does not accept ISIS ideology. The frequent display of ISIS flags is a measure of diverting attention of the Indian intelligence agencies and instigating the security forces. At the same time Al Qaeda does have a presence in Kashmir today. In the last 25 years its efforts to find a presence failed miserably but the minuscule presence today is an attempt to get its foot into the door before the ISIS seriously gets in. The Al Qaida threat is not taken very seriously. As a matter of interest some latest techniques that Jihadis use is to concentrate flash mobs with the help of mosque public address systems and social media to disrupt police and army action against terrorists. This is a major challenge to security forces as care has to be taken to avoid civilian casualties.

Pakistan’s security concerns presently has three major areas of focus-first is Afghanistan where it wishes to sustain Taliban and Haqqani network to prevent an Indian foothold emerging. Second is to stabilise the internal conflict in Pakistan where the TTP and other jihadi groups are battling Pakistani security forces. The third area of interest remains Kashmir where the proxy war is calibrated as per situation.

Dr. Shaul Shay

We need a more comprehensive point of view. Did the sixteen years long American intervention in Afghanistan with 2300 American soldiers losing their lives and the war costing around 700 billion dollars, really win the war for America? We need to evaluate what will happen and to learn from history and experience. Rise of IS was a surprise for everyone and no one was able to predict it. It was a combination of failed stated, vacuum left after America and lack of governance. There are similarities in Afghanistan today. Africa and Afghanistan are two theatres that need to be looked closely. The part that most benefitted from Middle East instability is Iran. It wants to fulfil the dream of Shia crest and if Iran could find Shia militias in Africa it can also find them in Afghanistan. Iranian interest in Af-Pak region is to reduce American involvement and the only power that can influence and create stability in Afghanistan is India.

Capt. (IN) AlokBansal

Israel needs to look beyond Ayatollahs in Iran and make a distinction between them and Iranian public. Iranians need to be viewed as potential allies and not as enemies. If Israel and western world would have looked beyond immediate benefits, they would see that it was AQ Khan Nuclear Wal-Mart that provided nuclear technology to both North Korea and Iran. If this enterprise was nipped in the bud, the globe would not have been staring at the nuclear scare that we are faced with today. Again, the world seems to be making the same mistake of looking at immediate benefits. It is important that a counter narrative be created against terrorism, which is seeped in theology and can be used to prevent youth from gravitating towards global terror outfits. This is a battle of the brains and cannot be won by bombs and bullets.

The report is prepared by Aaditya Tiwari. Senior Research Fellow, India Foundation who participated in the workshop as a rapporteur.’ 

Commemoration of the Battle of Haifa

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There are some battles that are so decisive that they change the course of history and human destiny. The Battle of Haifa fought on the slopes of the sacred Mount Carmel on 23 September 1918 is one such battle. It was here that a small band of four

hundred Indian horsemen armed with swords and lances routed over fifteen hundred Turkish soldiers armed with modern rifles, machine guns and artillery guns. Perhaps it is the geographical setting of the region that makes it the most hotly contested piece of real estate on Earth. Here the three great continents of Asia, Africa and Europe meet and so do the two forked tongues of the Indian Ocean in the form of the Red Sea and Persian Gulf reach towards the Mediterranean which links it to the Atlantic and across it to the Americas.

India Foundation in association with Nehru Memorial Museum and Library (NMML) and Indian War Veterans Association (IWVA) is hosting a commemoration on 20 September 2017 at Nehru Memorial Museum & Library, Teen Murti Bhawan, New Delhi.

India Foundation Dialogue 39

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India Foundation is hosting the 39th edition of its India Foundation Dialogues on 21st September 2017 with Mr Jonathan Spyer.

Conference on UNCLOS: Solutions for managing the Maritime Global Commons

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India Foundation is hosting a Conference on UNCLOS: Solutions for managing the Maritime Global Concerns on 4-6 October 2017 in Port Blair, Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Maritime issues have emerged as one of the most important security issues in the Indo-Pacific, driving major powers to strategically adjust their policies towards the region. During the past decade, maritime disputes have escalated to the point where the regional order is being affected and the risk of subsequent armed conflict cannot be entirely ruled out. By providing a framework for the regulation of all activities related to the uses of the oceans and seas, UNCLOS strengthens peace, security, cooperation and friendly relations among all States. The UNCLOS Conference will discuss on the following themes

Enduring legitimacy of UNCLOS & its continuing vitality in 21st century.

Role of UNCLOS in facilitating peaceful settlements of disputes: A case of harmonious maritime dispute resolution-India, Bangladesh & Myanmar.

Growing problems of non-compliance with UNCLOS: Analyzing imbroglio in South China Sea.

Maritime Security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region to maintain Freedom of Navigation under UNCLOS.

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