“No longer were there individual destinies; only a collective destiny, made of plague and emotions, shared by all.” (from “The Plague” by Albert Camus)

A Brief Backdrop

December 31, 2019 ushered in a new normal, irrevocably changing daily dynamics. A special edition virus from Wuhan in China – the SARS-CoV-2, a Novel coronavirus, which is classified as the seventh member of the family Coronaviridae, sub family Orthocoronavirinae^[1] – was introduced to the world. It proceeded to take over our routines, making us slaves to masks, sanitisers, and panic.  This virus family are a group of zoonotic viruses usually transmitted to humans through contact with infected animals, mainly bats and snakes, which are considered the natural reservoir of most coronaviruses, and which gave rise to the initial surmise that COVID-19 originated from a wet market in Huanan, Wuhan, which was said to be the ground zero for the epidemic. More on that shortly.

A study of the lipid molecules of these viruses shows that molecules such as caveolins, clathrins and dynamin have a fundamental role in their entry into hosts and targeting host lipids. COVID-19 binds the angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 receptor, the ACE2, on the membrane host cell to enable it to infect the host cell in tandem with an intracellular protein—protease TMPRSS2.^[2] According to Genome sequencing the closest similarity was between the COVID-19 genomes and the bat CoV. Results revealed that all COVID-19 strains were similar, compared with other strains related to the same family. COVID-19 also possesses accessory proteins that interfere with the host’s distinctive immune response, including spike (S) glycoprotein, small envelope (E) protein, matrix (M) protein and nucleocapsid (N) protein.

Given the extensive research on the virus and its comprehensive genome sequencing, the possibility of a synthetic virus has currency; especially as the Chinese authorities had chosen to cloud and obfuscate information about the pandemic, which was well in evidence by early November 2019, terming it an alt right conspiracy theory. A recent WHO-led team to probe the origins of the pandemic, which has led so far to the death of 3,697,151 people, and 171,708,011 confirmed cases of the SARS-COV-2 infection^[3] (figures according to assessments have been grossly under reported), stated that their finding were inconclusive. This was a quantifiable deviation from the earlier zoonotic theory put out by WHO, of the virus species-jumping and causing the SARS-CoV-2 mutation.

The Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), which has a P4 laboratory, had spent decades researching and collecting coronaviruses. Of note is the RaTG13 virus, procured from the mines in Mojiang after many miners were infected over 7 years ago. This was confirmed by Shi Zhengli, Chief virologist in WIV in November 2020 and again in February 2021. The possibility has now been admitted, with the qualifier that it remains less likely, that the virus has been sequenced and synthesised. The apprehension that WIV was actively testing these viruses to determine their ability to infect people as well as synthesise mutations is now a cause of serious international worry. China is alleged to have initiated a massive cover up programme, and co-opted not only members of the WHO, but also scientists—for example Peter Daskzak, the president of the Eco Health Alliance of New York, who managed to get scores of signatures for a letter, published in the prestigious medical journal Lancet about the natural origins of the virus—and silenced dissenting voices like Chinese virologist Li Meng Yan. Actual disclosures about the alleged Chinese coverup came from a group of amateur internet sleuths from around the globe, who called themselves the DRASTIC – Decentralised Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating Covid. A central figure of the group was the “Seeker”, an Indian web crawler, who has kept his identity hidden. Their findings have re-generated global interest and misgivings against China.^[4]

President Biden has asked for a report on China’s and the WIV’s role in the current pandemic within 90 days. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases and the White House Advisor on health, has stated that he is not completely convinced about the natural origins of the Corona virus, and US Health Secretary, Xavier Becerra, casting doubt on the Chinese claims about the natural origins of the virus, said “not only was a year stolen from our lives, it has stolen a million lives.”^[5]

Consequences of Covid

A year and a half have also been stolen from our lives, and in India, we are paying an extortionate cost for a crisis not of our making. Our internal challenges range from human tragedy, to the shrinkage of the economy, impact on security forces, and a ravaged administration which has been stretched to its limits. Chinese dissembling has been one of the primary parameters which has impacted on the larger internal security of the country, by putting it into a pandemic vortex. While globally the impact has been felt, it is India, which shares lengthy uneasy borders with China, that needs to be most alive to the possibility of cross border transmissions of virus—be they inadvertent or inimical. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, India will be witness to an  overwhelming 10 lakh deaths from COVID-19 by 01 August 2021.^[6] The official death rate is around 3.5 lakhs, a figure that analysts claim is far from reality, which is around 3-5X times higher. Critics of the present government, who were waiting for an opportune moment to strike, are claiming that Prime Minister Modi’s Government is responsible for presiding over a national catastrophe, which has damaged both the economy and the psyche of the nation.

The Dangers of Complacency

There was, unfortunately, a feeling of complacency within the government, as was epitomised by Minister of Health Harsh Vardhan’s  statement that India was in the “endgame” of the epidemic, which resulted as a consequence in repeated warnings of the dangers of a second wave and the emergence of new strains gaining no traction. This was despite the fact that Indian Council of Medical Research had conducted a serosurvey by January 2021, which showed that only 21% of the population had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Premature optimism on part of some of the ministers and officials helming the anti-COVID task forces has led to the near breakdown of health care services in both the first and second waves of the pandemic. Our quick declaration of victory against the virus led to criminal lack of preparedness for the second wave, which had been predicted by all except a few mathematical models like SUTRA^[7], which have been comprehensively debunked^[8]. This led to shortages in drugs and oxygen, generating instances (which translated into visuals) of needless, painful deaths, summary burials, and multiple cremations, which have seriously tarnished India’s global image. While India’s response to the first Covid wave made it a bellwether for other countries to follow, the second wave has certainly shaken India’s image abroad. The international media/global community have been quick to castigate the surge in cases as a serious policy failure, and opposition parties within India have used the second wave as a launching pad to hurl political invective against the government: poor planning, lack of deliverables, and complacency. Even if the diatribes of the opposition and a section of the western media are ignored as motivated, institutional complacency has possibly risen to the top of the list of internal threats faced by the country, which needs expeditious remedial action.

The Ticking Bomb of Mutations

Another issue that the ‘complacency factor’ did not take into account was the propensity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to acquire new genetic mutations that allow it to evade immune responses, to hinder herd immunity, which would normally be acquired through mass vaccination. In such mutations, the virus sheds tiny bits of its genome under natural evolutionary pressure, making it smaller and more resilient, causing surges which signify higher person-to-person transmission. The deletion mutations affect the spike protein in the virus which causes major surges in community transmission. A ten-fold increase in one such mutation—known as deletion mutation B. 1. 617.2—caused the second surge between February 2021 (1.1%) to April 2021 (15%), in India and is still continuing unabated.

There was irrefutable evidence that the B.1.617.2 variant, first identified in India, could be far more transmissible than even the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in Britain, or the B.1. 351 variant, first identified in South Africa, which contributed to some of the deadliest surges around the world. These mutations were causing vaccination break throughs—infections post vaccination—though the number was negligible.

The World Health Organisation on May 10 classified B.1.617.2 as   a variant of global concern^[9]. The mutations showed that variants with higher transmissibility were a major source of danger to people without immunity either from vaccination or prior infection, even if the variant is no more deadly than previous versions of the virus. The transmissibility of the virus was evidenced by the emergence of a new Vietnamese variant, which, according to the Vietnam Health Minister Nguyen Thanh Long, is a combination of the strains identified in India and the United Kingdom.^[10] The minister warned that the new variant was more transmissible than the previous ones and spreads faster by air, and due to its modified spike proteins, could cause greater damage. Some traces of the Vietnam virus have been found in the North East of India, and the genome sequencing is under way. The proclivity of the virus to mutate underscores its continuing menace. While vaccination breakthroughs with the new variants are occurring, vaccination fortunately still does offer a quantifiable shield against serious infections and brings down the CFR considerably.

The Vaccination Conundrum

This brings up issue of the need for an accelerated vaccination drive. As of now, the percentage of people vaccinated in India is less than 18%, and the country’s share of global active coronavirus cases now stand at 19.08 per cent (one in 5)^[11]. The two major vaccine manufacturers in India, Serum Institute of India (SII) and Bharat Biotech, which produce Covishield and Covaxin respectively, can manufacture around 90 million doses a month. At this pace, vaccinating 840 million people who make up the 18+ population in India (two doses each) will take over 19 months! Urgent imports of Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, and Sputnik V have been initiated, but India is competing against burgeoning international demand. Newer vaccines, including a nasal spray are being  developed, but R&D  and three phased trials are time consuming, which is a matter of grave concern, given the speed of mutations. Hence, despite ramping up local production, indigenous R&D, and importing of vaccines, the goal of 70% vaccination, which is a sine qua non for herd immunity, seems a tall order. Moreover, the newer emerging virus variants may not respond to the available vaccines, and people may require an annual booster shot, which will further strain vaccine availability. Another factor is that vaccines are by and large only 70-80 % efficacious. The possibility that some variants, including the increasingly prevalent Delta variant, will not respond to the available vaccines is also not ruled out. A tardy vaccination drive, with major segments having continuing exposure to COVID, is an internal stress factor that India can ill afford. Policymakers will have to rethink the country’s vaccination strategy and the collateral delivery systems.

Restructuring Response to COVID

With a savage second wave upon us, India must now restructure its response to the crisis. The PM, in his address to the nation on 8 June 2021, has admitted to lapses in the vaccination policy, and has decided to centralise procurement, both for efficient delivery, and to minimise graft in the process. He had earlier promised a public health response based on science, making it clear that the present government policies would not have room for obscurantist remedies, which are being used without empirical basis. He has stated that there will be free vaccinations for all Indian citizens over the age of 18, and that attempts would be made to vaccinate the entire population by December 2021. His words have given a boost of confidence to the beleaguered nation, but the global shortage of vaccines is a major impediment, and there is the “Sword of Damocles”—the third wave of the pandemic, forecast from October-November this year, hanging over our heads. Vaccine shortage is emerging as one of the major threats to internal security, for any delay on this front could leave us just as unprepared for the third wave as we were for the second.

Damage Control

Planning is underway to contain and control the pandemic situation. The government has ramped up the administration and formed six nodal groups to combat the problem. NITI Aayog will be leading three of the empowered groups. ICMR will lead one of the groups, with Secretaries to the Government leading the rest.^[12] Some of the major decisions taken by the Government include custom duty waivers for vital items like oxygen cylinders, oxygen concentrators and vaccines. State governments are now permitted to borrow up to 75 percent of their annual limit for FY22 in the first nine months, i.e., between April-December. Also, government has allowed spends on makeshift COVID-19 hospitals and temporary care facilities to be treated as an eligible CSR activity.^[13]

The RBI has announced some important measures to minimise the impact of the second wave: term liquidity facility of INR 500 billion to provide fresh credit support for enhancing COVID-related infrastructure; purchase of government securities worth INR 350 billion; and a renewed moratorium on loan repayments to individuals and MSMEs. Importantly, GoI is accepting foreign aid, to combat health related problems posed by the second wave, the first time in 16 years. These steps, while laudable, are yet to create fiscal impact, due to the government’s shrinking fiscal space. The Government has expended considerable resources for relief during the first and second waves of the pandemic. The GoI has to face deteriorating sovereign ratings and undersubscribed bond issues which hinder fund raising from foreign and domestic markets. Attempts by the Government to raise funds through disinvestment in public enterprises like Air India, BPCL, and Shipping Corporation of India, have not yet yielded dividends, forcing austerity measures. This could impact India’s ability to respond to the pandemic.^[14] The stimulus package offered by the GoI through the Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative   of 10 percent of the GDP, focused on the three Rs of relief, rehabilitation and rebuilding, which included free food distribution, credit guarantees to MSMEs etc, mainly primary needs. However, the true fiscal stimulus amounted to approximately 1.3 percent of the GDP. While these measures make good economics, they have been unable so far to resuscitate the manufacturing sectors and the job markets.

Economic Woes

Moreover, several countries have restricted the entry of travellers and cargo from India. This is likely to have a substantial downside effect on trade in goods and services, which already registered a negative growth of 16.66 percent during April-September 2020. India, which has an estimated market size of over INR 375 billion, is likely to witness a similar contraction in the second wave, with the concomitant problems of unemployment, pay erosion and loss of purchasing power.

The country is reeling under the economic impact of the second wave. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), there is over 17 per cent unemployment in urban India and nearly 14 per cent in rural India. A grim Barclays bank assessment suggests that India has lost around Rs 60,000 crore every week in May 2021, and the trend is likely to continue in June and July. The bank estimates an erosion of 3.75 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Earlier, in April 2020, during the first wave of the pandemic, about 126 million jobs were lost, about 90 million of those jobs were of daily wagers. The combined effect of the lockdown and migration ravaged the unorganised sector, which is the most vulnerable. When the lock down was removed, many of the migrant labour moved back into the labour market. The pattern through the two lockdowns was that migrant labour, though often close to or within the BPL, could move in and out of employment fairly casually. Unfortunately, their earning capacity/propensity declined and consequently, social indices like education, healthcare, nutrition etc have taken a big hit. Another significant development was that a number of formal jobs, which had been lost during the first wave, came back as informal jobs, without job security, and more often than not, at reduced pay. According to the CMIE there were an “estimated 403.5 million jobs before we were hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, while today, we’re at 390 million. Everybody has not got their job back, and those who have, have not necessarily got the same quality job. And salaried jobs are still falling”.^[15] The consequence of the above backdrop is that after accounting for inflation, more than 97 per cent of India’s population has become poorer compared to where they were in terms of income in end 2019. As explained in the preceding, the economic stimulus, though well planned and well intentioned, has not given adequate impetus to restart manufacturing, which is falling steeply. It is seen that those with deep pockets prefer to put resources into the equity market, rather than into manufacturing and capacity building which would create assets and jobs. Existing enterprises are using only about 60% of their capacity, and many industries in the SME and MSME sectors have shut down. There is no way to sugar-coat this situation. It needs to improve and fast. Unemployment and economic downturns could create schisms in society, and pose major threats to internal stability.

Post COVID Health Audit

Economics and fiscal problems apart, the pandemic has a quantifiable effect on survivors. COVID 19 affects the pulmonary, cardiovascular and nephric systems. Myriad instances of patients who have survived COVID but succumb to a sudden stroke, renal failure or COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) have been recorded. Survivors often report extreme fatigue in addition to the above problems. Several survivors who have been interviewed have spoken about their inability to work at previous levels and face fall in productivity. In the second wave, many families have lost members, and the social impact of losing breadwinners, or leaving orphaned children is immense.^[16]

Effect of COVID on Security/ Health Sectors

A major security concern is the death/ infection rate within the local police forces and the Central Armed Police Force (CAPF). Over 3,08,615 police personnel have been infected with COVID to date, 33,902 quarantined, and with about 2057casualties. Figures for police families affected is not yet available. Over 30% have not been able to return to work as yet, and health problems amongst the survivors are legion.^[17] These figures are disquieting as they impact COVID control duties, which could have a major impact upon the police’s ability for COVID related work, including delivery of vaccines and essential drugs, preventing black marketing and defusing law and order situations.^[18] The problem is worse in the case of health workers and doctors. The Indian Medical Association (IMA) has stated that over 747 doctors have died of Covid-19. While all states of India have had to face casualties within the health care sector, the worst affected states were Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Gujarat. The numbers of nurses, ward attenders, and ambulance staff who have succumbed to COVID are no less grim.^[19]

Pandemic Watch continues on Red Alert

Apart from the humanitarian angle, these developments have a major impact on internal security, in terms of depletion of these core services during an expected third wave. News of the new variant of the virus prevalent in Vietnam being found in the North East, and the presence of another severe variant – B.1.1.28.2 which has been identified by the National Institute of Virology^[20] – points to a continuing red alert over the pandemic.  Add Mucormycosis to this lethal brew. Mucormycosis fungal infection is caused by a group of molds called mucormycetes, which mainly affects people with compromised immunity. What was an occasional infection has now become a serious threat due to infecting COVID patients with co-morbidities. The horrific aspect of this infection, which causes facial deformities and often leads to loss of sight, has pushed the panic button in most hospitalised patients.^[21] Hospitals and COVID care centres are gearing up for a third wave, but it is to be seen if they could adequately cater for essential services and delivery of vaccines.

Conclusion

The second wave of the COVID pandemic has ravaged the country, with health and administrative services being strained to the limit. Despite this, there have been no major instances of rioting or coordinated strikes in India. The internal situation, though strained has not cracked under the pressure. However, the possibility of a third wave and the consequences thereof has potential for societal turmoil. In this scenario, the PMO has taken charge of the situation, from centralising vaccine procurement, and distributing the same, as well as lifesaving drugs.

The factor that needs to be kept in mind are the rising casualties within the security forces, doctors and health workers, which could impede effective delivery of aid and assistance.  The pandemic is global, and its reach is global. This is one time when we as individuals need to understand our responsibilities as both proximate and international. The times call for strict adherence to COVID protocols and self-discipline. This remains the only known panacea at this time.

Author Brief Bio: Ms. Prabha Rao is Executive Director, South Asian Institute for Strategic Affairs and Distinguished Scholar at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. She is a former IPS officer from Karnataka cadre (1982 batch) who went on a deputation to cabinet secretariat and served in several locations abroad.

References:

^[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297520300251, by A A Dawood

^[2] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297520300251, by A A Dawood

^[3] https://covid19.who.int/june 4

^[4] https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-how-amateur-sleuths-broke-wuhan-lab-story-embarrassed-media-1596958

^[5] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-health-secretary-calls-for-transparent-2nd-phase-of-covid-19-origins-investigation/articleshow/82976368.cms

^[6] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01052-7/fulltext

^[7] https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158

^[8] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/government-backed-model-to-predict-pandemic-rise-and-ebb-lacks-foresight-scientists/article34479503.ece

^[9] https://www.deccanherald.com/science-and-environment/covid-19-acquires-new-mutations-to-escape-immune-response-993479.html

^[10] https://scroll.in/latest/996136/covid-vietnam-finds-new-virus-variant-with-combination-of-strains-first-identified-in-india-uk

^[11] https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/data-story-india-s-covid-vaccination-past-190-mn-about-14-population-jabbed-121052101475_1.html

^[12] https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/govt-reconstitutes-6-empowered-groups-into-10-to-tackle-covid-19-crisis-101622298616531.html?utm_source=browser_notifications&utm_medium=

^[13] Impact of the 2nd wave_koan advisory.pdf

^[14] Impact of the 2^nd wave_koan advisory.pdf

^[15] https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/cmie-ceo-says-97-indians-poorer-post-covid-steady-fall-in-salaried-jobs-121052900142_1.html

^[16] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173526v1

^[18]  https://www.policefoundationindia.org/covid-19-resources

^[19] https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/747-doctors-died-of-covid-19-in-india-ima-7277087/

^[20] Times of India June 8

^[21] https://www.freepressjournal.in/mumbai/after-white-and-black-fungus-ghaziabad-reports-first-case-of-yellow-fungus-all-you-need-to-know

Introduction

The first case of Covid-19 in India—the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus—and which first originated in Wuhan, China, was reported on 30 January 2020.^[1] Covid-19 is. India is currently passing through the second phase of the disease and has the largest number of confirmed cases in Asia.^[2] As of 19 June 2021, India has the second-highest number of confirmed cases in the world (after the United States) with 29.9 million reported cases of Covid-19 infection and the third-highest number of Covid deaths (after the United States and Brazil) at 388,164 deaths.^[3]

Although China has rejected the claim that the virus escaped from a test in a chemical laboratory in Wuhan and has also stonewalled the demand for a probe into the accident, the general opinion with some evidence is that the virus did spread from Wuhan.^[4]

The first wave

On 30 January 2020, the WHO declared Covid-19, a public health emergency of international concern.^[5] This was also the day when the first Covid-19 case was reported in Kerala, India. Subsequently, the number of cases drastically rose. According to the press release by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) of 08 May 2020, a total of 14, 37,788 suspected samples had been sent to the National Institute of Virology (NIV), Pune, and a related testing laboratory.^[6] Among them, 56,342 cases tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

To impose social distancing, the “Janata curfew” (14-h lockdown) was ordered on 22 March 2020. A further lockdown was initiated for 21 days, starting on 25 March 2020, and the same was extended until 01 May, but, owing to an increasing number of positive cases, the lockdown had to be extended for the third time until 17 May 2020.

The second wave

When the coronavirus pandemic was sweeping across India last year, the government appointed a committee of experts drawn from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), and the Indian Institute of Sciences (IIS). The committee developed a “supermodel” based on the peculiarity of Indian conditions, which predicted that the Covid-19 pandemic would come to an end in February 2021 in India largely due to herd immunity. The model estimated that there were 60-65 asymptomatic undetected infections for every lab-confirmed case of Covid-19. This estimate was vastly different from the Indian Council of Medical Research’s (ICMR) serosurveys assessment of 26-32 undetected Covid-19 cases for every lab-confirmed case.

The committee submitted its report in October 2020 when India’s Covid-19 caseload was around 75 lakhs. Taking that number as a base, the supermodel estimated that the country’s actual Covid-19 caseload would have been around 50 crore or close to 40 per cent of India’s population. By February 2021, the Covid-19 wave was to draw to an end, but by mid-February, India saw a revival of Covid-19—the second wave. The second wave has since strengthened, pushing active coronavirus cases beyond 9 lakh and the total Covid-19 caseload to nearly 3 crore cases.

It should be noted that the supermodel, named SUTRA, was correct in predicting ebb in the Covid-19 pandemic wave in February. The country saw daily cases falling below 9,000 from the high of over 97,000 in September. The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic has taken the daily cases of coronavirus infections to an all-time high of more than 1.26 lakh. Now, the question dominating the public debate is when the second Covid-19 wave may end in India and will it be followed by further waves.

Given the complexity of the crisis, with variants of Sars-CoV-2 clouding the calculus, nothing can be said with certainty. But a continuation of the disease over a long period of time poses serious challenges to the well-being and security of the nation. In his broadcast on 14 May 2021, the Prime Minister spoke in detail about the challenges the nation would face in this regard and asked the people to prepare accordingly.^[7]

The Challenges

Our experience with the first and second phase of Covid-19 indicates that the pandemic has hardly left any aspect of our lives untouched. Besides the severe debilitating impact on health care and the national economy, almost all vital services, social life, economic well-being, social interaction, security, law and order, development, planning etc. have been adversely and in some cases dangerously impacted. With India being sandwiched between two hostile neighbours that are in tango and trying to grab even the smallest of opportunity to bring harm to our nation, the threat to our nation is very real and serious. While nobody is in any position to predict how the future will unfold, yet prudence demands that we clearly explain the challenges and suggest remedial measures which the government may find useful for close consideration. These are enumerated in subsequent paragraphs.

Mass involvement

The handling the Covid-19 means handling the vast masses of Indian people because the virus spreads indiscriminately in urban and rural areas and transcends all human barriers like caste, creed, colour, faith, belief, ideology etc. It means the entire nation is at war with the virus. Defeating Covid-19 depends on the unity and solidarity of the entire nation in meeting the challenge as a source of national disaster. Therefore, mass involvement means putting aside small and mundane differences, local and regional rivalries, jingoistic party affiliations and identification and suppression of criminal and anti-national elements in whatever form and shape these are. This objective can best be achieved by the political leadership, panchayat and social representatives inculcating the sense of responsibility among the masses of people on an unprecedented scale. Masses of the people are to be educated and informed that unity and observance of the established protocol of social interaction alone can save their lives and their livelihood. The government has to be vigilant about disruptive elements misleading sections or segments of society under one pretext or the other.

Law and Order

There is an established mechanism of fighting natural calamities and vagaries of weather. But Covid-19 is a unique and unprecedented calamity that nobody had ever imagined. The worst is that fighting its threats becomes the duty of almost all services of the government plus the voluntary services from NGOs and social and charity organisations as supplementary support to the efforts of the government.

We have noted that the law-and-order situation in the country has come under strain after the change of government in 2014/2019. The bane of democracy in our country is the rise of personality cult on the one hand and the rise of identities of various hues on the other after the first two or three decades of independence. Incapable of handling these aberrations with deft hands, the long-sitting ruling structures began feeling deprived and marginalised because they had lost political power. As the Indian nation opted for a change in aforesaid years through the constitutional process, the dislodged segment, instead of behaving as responsible opposition, unfortunately resorted to hostility to the elected regime and even had no qualms of conscience if national solidarity and territorial integrity were attacked. It is unfortunate that the seditious slogan of “Bharat tere tukde honge, inshallah”^[8] were raised by the students of a university that stood in the name of the first Prime Minister of India, a great patriot and a democrat.

Opposition is the backbone of democracy but when the opposition becomes anti-national and propagates divisiveness, it poses a very serious threat to the internal security of the State. These elements and their cronies are out to join hands with our adversaries with no purpose other than that of pulling down the elected government. The freedoms allowed by democracy are blatantly misused and need to be curbed so that law and order in the country is not jeopardised. We have seen how a small segment of people can mislead the masses and whip up sentiments on a communal and parochial basis as seen in the case of Shaheen Bagh or Delhi riots. Enforcement of law and order must be ensured, even if “coercive force” is to be used. The nation also needs to bring about reforms in the legal structure to ensure that disgruntled elements are not encouraged or allowed to pose a challenge to the solidarity of the state.

Police and Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF)

Lockdowns are usually disliked by people. Labourers, business class, students, tourists etc. resent it. Lockdowns are highly detrimental to the economy of the country. But people have to understand the dire compulsions of the government to impose lockdowns which it also would not want to do. It is the question of public health. Lockdown is the effective way of enforcing social distancing which is of primary importance to remain safe from Covid-19.

Government has the compulsion of enforcing lockdown and it is obliged to use what is called “coercive force” meaning the police of various categories like State Armed Police and the CAPF. In many instances, these forces have to bear the wrath of the uncontrolled and irrational mobs throwing stones and hurling rocks or bombs at the security forces to discourage them and force them to retreat. In such a situation, the police or the CAPF are in a very embarrassing situation whether to use force or not when gentle persuasion fails to hold the undisciplined crowds. The miscreants and anti-government elements are on the lookout for such critical occasions to instigate the crowds that their rights and liberties are curbed and that they are being treated inhumanly.

What is of utmost importance is to provide the police and CAPF with an adequate defensive mechanism so that minimum harm is done to their person by the recalcitrant mobs. The police have to be given efficient and effective training of self-control and self-discipline not to get irritated and do any action out of frustration. Miscreants and anti-national elements will try to instigate the police which must be resisted. Sometimes the police force is asked to act against ideological war, something outside the purview of their normal function. It is the political system that must fight the ideological war and not the police force. But to malign the police, the miscreants and trouble mongers will tarnish them and paint them in a dark colour to reduce their prestige and status in the eyes of the people. This is a serious threat and all vigilance is needed to combat it.

The police are also a source of intelligence that forms the main plank of action against the anti-national elements. Be it the terrorists in Kashmir or the Maoists in Bastar or Naxalites in Telangana, the police are the main source of intelligence for the government. Therefore, the security, welfare and proper equipment are what the government must ensure in their case. We have had so many casualties of policemen and officers in tackling the anti-national elements. It is important that the public take the police as its supporter and not adversary which, unfortunately, is the prevailing idea at the moment.

Migrant workers

A very large number of labourers move out of their native places and head towards other states in search of work. They usually choose to move to industrial regions where there are good chances of finding work. Their migration may be of long or short duration depending on how long they can afford to be away from their small landholdings. Millions of daily wagers were working in numerous industrial units in Mumbai, Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh etc. when the first wave of Covid-19 struck with all fury. The industrial units were closed down and millions of these labourers were rendered jobless and forced to return to their homes. This large-scale migration raises many critical concerns, such as transportation at a time when the rail and bus services have been suspended. Unable to find means of returning home, many labourers with their families, undertook a long march to reach their native places. On 14 September 2020, Labour and Employment Minister Santosh Kumar Gangwar stated in the Parliament that information collected from state governments indicated an estimated 10 million migrants had attempted to return home as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdown.^[9]  He later stated in Parliament on 15 September 2020 that no data was maintained on the number of migrants in the country who had either died or become unemployed, as a result of the pandemic. ^[10]

Just coming back to their homes did not solve their problem as most were now jobless and penniless. It is highly appreciable that the government rose to the occasion and came to their succour. Soon after the nationwide lockdown was announced in late March, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a ₹1.7 lakh crore (US$24 billion) spending plan for the poor. This consisted of cash transfers and steps to ensure food security.^[11]  By 3 April, the central government had released ₹11,092 crores to states and UTs under the NDRF, to fund food and shelter arrangements for migrants. To help provide jobs and wages to workers, the average daily wages under the MGNREGA were increased to ₹202 (US$2.80) from the earlier ₹182 (US$2.60), as of 1 April. ₹1,000 crore from the PM CARES Fund was allocated for the support of migrant workers on 13 May. On 14 May, FM Sitharaman further announced free food grains for the migrant workers, targeting 80 million migrant workers by spending ₹35 billion (US$490 million).^[12]

It has to be remembered that the migrant workers are sustaining India’s industrial and economic growth to a great extent. If neglected and not cared for, it will result in colossal damage to our economy which we cannot afford.

Cyber threat

Writing under the caption ‘India becomes a favourite destination for cyber-Criminals amid Covid-19’, Shivani Shinde and Neha Alwadhi wrote, “In February 2021—nearly one year from the start of the pandemic—there were 377.5 million brute-force attacks—a far cry from the 93.1 million witnessed at the beginning of 2020. India alone witnessed 9.04 million attacks in February 2021. The total number of attacks recorded in India during Jan & Feb 2021 was around 15 million.”^[13]

According to Kaspersky’s telemetry,^[14] when the world went into lockdown in March 2020, the numbers in India went from 1.3 million in February 2020 to 3.3 million in March 2020. From April 2020 onward, monthly attacks never dipped below 300 million, and they reached a new high of 409 million attacks worldwide in November 2020. In July 2020, India recorded its highest number of attacks at 4.5 million.

In a Study titled ‘Covid, cyber-attacks, and data fraud top threats for India Corporate’ the Economic Times gave the following inference:

“The public health crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as the top threat for Indian corporate, while cyber-attacks and data frauds loom equally large, according to a study. While there is great optimism about the ability of organisations to rebound and address future pandemic-related challenges, cyber-attacks and data fraud continue to be paramount concerns for risk professionals in India, as per the survey round 63 per cent of the 231 survey respondents — which included C-suite executives and senior risk professionals — identified the continued fallout of COVID-19 among the top three risks facing their organisations.

Cyber-attacks (56 per cent), data fraud or theft (36 per cent), failure of critical infrastructure (33 per cent), fiscal crises (31 per cent) and extreme weather events (25 per cent) were highlighted among the other top risks for Indian businesses. The majority of survey respondents (85 per cent) said the pandemic necessitated a shift to remote work, which has increased the organisations’ exposure to potential cyber-attacks.

In the light of the pandemic and shutdowns imposed by national and local governments, failure of critical infrastructure climbed the ranks in the 2020 survey as many organisations re-evaluated their risk management priorities.^[15]

We are already aware that at one time China almost locked down Mumbai, the financial hub of India. Pakistan has also been trying it. The threat is dimensional as it can penetrate every private and personal data and hack even passwords, bank account numbers, codes and sensitive documents etc. More importantly, our defence network can become vulnerable. This is a very big threat and the remedy is that India must upgrade and have the state of art cybersecurity mechanism impenetrable to any hacker howsoever crafty and improvised.

Divisive forces

Black marketers, hoarders, financial criminals, economic burglars, anti-social elements, enemy agents, communalists and sectarian malefactors are out to join hands with antagonistic political opportunists and foreign agents to strike at the roots of the values of our society like humanism, equality, democracy and respect for the law of the land. They subvert the law of the land and paint the country in the darkest colour. The partisan sections of media are playing a very negative role and they have formed a nexus with the international anti-India syndicate. When India made the vaccine, they raised doubts about its genuineness and refused to take it. But when many countries including the US appreciated India’s successful efforts, these elements are now raising the question of why the government does not vaccinate 130 crore people overnight.

The government will have to revisit the law that pertains to the internal and external security of the country. Redundant laws have to be weeded out and replaced by pragmatic and highly desirable laws that ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the State. A new standard of administrating the state in a scenario of Covid-19 and its variants has to be evolved.  Rules can be harsh because the crimes are almost inhuman. Even the judiciary has to revisit the entire scenario and bring new blood to the veins of the law and dispensation.

Conclusion

Covid-19 with its undefined variants is intractable. In all probability, it is going to stay for long with the global population. The adverse impact hardly spares any aspect of life. Therefore, the States must understand that they have to deal with a new situation in which the rights, duties, freedoms and privileges of citizens have to be given new value and new interpretation. India is vulnerable owing to its population and landmass. She has to begin new lessons in administrating the country and handling the crowds.

Author Brief Bio: Prof. K N Pandita has a PhD in Iranian Studies from the University of Teheran. He is the former Director of the Centre of Central Asian Studies, Kashmir University.

References

^[1]  “India’s first coronavirus infection confirmed in Kerala”. The Hindu    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/indias-first-coronavirus-infection-confirmed-in-kerala/article30691004.ece, Retrieved 24 February 2021.

^[2]   Hindustan Times. 29 May 2020.

^[3] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ accessed on 21 June 2021

^[4]  W.H.O. Declares Global Emergency as Wuhan Coronavirus Spreads, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/health/coronavirus-world-health-organization.html (accessed February 03, 2020).

5. 5. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmed.2020.00250/full
6. 6. Indian Council of Medical Research. Government of India. ICMR (2020), https://main.icmr.nic.in/content/covid-19 (accessed May 09, 2020).

^[7]  News 18, 14 May 2021

^[8]  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwqusr8YDwM-3mEYTDeJHzw

^[9]  The Economic Times. Retrieved 12 November 2020

^[10]  The Hindu. ISSN 0971-751X. Retrieved 12 November 2020.

^[11]  Beniwal, Vrishti; Srivastava, Shruti (26 March 2020). “India Unveils $22.6 Billion Stimulus Plan to Ease Virus Pain”. Bloomberg Quint.

^[12]  “India to Provide Free Food Grains to Millions of Migrant Workers”. The New York Times. Reuters. 14 May 2020. ISSN 0362-4331 Retrieved 16 May 2020.

^[13]  The Business Standard, April 6, 2021

^[14]  Ibid

^[15]  The Economic Times of 9 Dec 2020

Abstract

The present situation prevailing over the world has to be unmasked and the global pandemic named “Covid-19” across the World has been originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China, and has enveloped the entire world impacting all major economies adversely in the fields of aviation, tourism, retail, education, automotive, restaurant, and oil and gas sector resulting in severe employee layoffs. Highly transmissible nature of this virus and its subsequent mutations are becoming a grave concern for the economic recovery process. A robust research and development effort around the world in the discovery of vaccines and inoculation of the people are easing the dangers posed by the pandemic. Post the first wave of the pandemic, a hesitant and uneven recovery started to take place from an unprecedented steep fall. Government of India and Reserve Bank of India calibrated stimulus intervention process into various sectors of the economy appears to positive recovery. However, a second wave caused by more lethal virus variants from March 2021 onwards has forced authorities to impose stringent lockdown procedures by all State Governments halted the economic recovery resulting in further fall in business activity and employment.

Introduction:

A cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan of Hubei Province, China have been reported by Wuhan Municipal Health Commission. Eventually Covid-19 has been identified in December 2019 which was originated from Wuhan Institute of Virology, China. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared Covid-19 as a pandemic on 11th March 2020 [1]. During the first wave of the pandemic, several European countries such as Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, Germany, and the USA bore the major brunt of the virus. United Kingdom authorities reported a SARS-CoV-2 variant to WHO in December 2020. The United Kingdom referred to this variant as SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (Variant of Concern). On 18 December 2020, national authorities in South Africa announced the detection of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2. Later on, Covid-19 pandemic is continuously evolving, as mutations are taking place in the virus and the resultant severity of the virulence is constantly changing depending upon the type of variant and its structure. The proliferation of Covid-19 is not the same in all countries. Covid-19 outbreak of most affected countries for a 7-day moving average preceding 22^nd June 2021 is presented in Figure 1[2]. A comprehensive database of the virus variants compiled by global initiative on sharing all influenza data (GISAID) sourced from genomic sequencing organizations of several countries is available [3].  According to a report by Nature and Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genome Sequencing Consortia (INSACOG), B.1.1.7, B.1.618, B.1.618 and B.1.351 virus variants are dominant in India which are further undergoing mutations [4]. The severity of the Covid-19 pandemic can be easily understood from Figure 2.

On the vaccine front; major methodologies employed for their development and manufacture are m-RNA, DNA, Viral vector, Protein based and inactivated virus. A pictorial representation of vaccines developed using these methodologies and their manufacturers are presented in Figure 3[5]. Currently, 82 vaccine candidates are under clinical development and 182 vaccine candidates are in the pre-clinical development phase [6].

In India, the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Kerala, among 3 Indian students those who had returned from Wuhan [7]. Kerala has announced first lockdown on 23 March 2020 followed by the rest of the country two days later. Recoveries in Covid cases exceeded compared to infected cases by June 10, 2020. Five of the highest industrialised cities accounted for around half of all reported cases in the country, Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad, Chennai and Thane. Daily cases peaked mid-September with over 90,000 cases reported per-day, dropping to below 15,000 in January 2021 [8-10]. The country began a phased lifting of restrictions on 8 June [11]. This phased lifting of restrictions continued in a series of “unlocks” which extended into November 2020 [12]. Second wave of Covid-19 pandemic started from mid-March 2021 and rapidly spread in almost all big states in the country and is still ongoing. Stringent lockdown measures were re-imposed to tackle the worsening health care situation and to arrest the spread of the infection [13].  As the active infected cases started to fall at rapid speed, several states had started implementing the unlock procedures from the 2nd week of June 2021.

The National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for COVID-19 (NEGVAC) was constituted in August 2020 to draw strategy for the vaccine deployment [14]. The Indian government provided around 65.5 million doses of covid vaccines to 95 countries between 20 January 2021 and late March 2021. 10.5 million doses were gifted while the remaining were commercial and COVAX obligations [15]. Based on the scientific data and experience from other nations and discovery of delta and delta plus variants, several scientists including the Principal Scientific Advisor to the Government announced that “Carona pandemic Phase 3’ is inevitable and not too far away [16,17]. As of 22nd June 2021, India has administered 28,87,66,201 vaccines with a world record of vaccinations of 8.5 million on 21 January 2021[18].

Impact on Economy and Employment in India

Stringent lockdown measures have seriously impacted the world economy as well as Indian economy causing adversely in the fields of aviation, tourism, retail, education, automotive, restaurant, and oil and gas sector resulting in severe employee layoffs. According to International Labour Organization (ILO) [19], in 2020, 8.8 percent of global working hours were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019, equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs which are also equivalent to approximately four times greater than during the global financial crisis in 2009. At present during second wave, in India it is estimated by Standards & Poor’s that about $210 million daily output loss in April-June quarter period [20].

World Bank report estimates 4.3 percent contraction in global economy in 2021 [21] because of COVID19 pandemic, and it estimates that 3.6 % contraction in U.S. GDP, 7.4% GDP contraction in European Union, 5.3 % GDP contraction in Japan and 2.6% contraction in aggregate GDP of emerging and developing economies. India, the world’s sixth-largest economy also had been hit hard by the pandemic last year as its GDP contracted by 7.9% [22]. Country braced the first wave of pandemic outbreak and made some impressive recovery but onset of more severe second wave in April 2021 has wiped out the previous economic gains and dented the economic recovery. Government of India has given more freedom to State Governments to take appropriate decisions based on local situations like imposing lockdown, etc. unlike the centralised decision which happened last year. This has allowed agriculture and heavy industry manufacturing sector to keep operating. Nevertheless, 100 million jobs were lost during the nationwide April-May 2020 lockdown, and at the present, during the month of May 2021, 15.3 million jobs were lost. This has resulted in an 18% jobless rate in urban areas of India, which is an additional burden on unemployed educated youth and which is now having an inverse relationship with their education backgrounds Table-1 [23].

A recent report STATE OF WORKING INDIA 2021: One year of Covid-19 (Azim Premji University) highlights that an average household of four members, used to have Rs. I5,989 monthly per capita income in Jan 2020 which has come down to Rs. 14,979 in Oct 2020. Unemployment is more pronounced in young workers (15-24 years age group) who failed to recover employment. Azim Premji report further observes rapid increase in informal employment sector during the pandemic as salaried workers shifted towards self-employment and daily wage activities. Further, it is reported that Covid-19 has made huge damage on women employment opportunities and 46.6% of jobs of women were not recovered Table-2. It is a foregone conclusion that increasing health expenses and reduced employment opportunities have further worsened the economic situation of poorer households, increased poverty level and contributed to wealth disparities [24].

On the other hand, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., found that India’s household savings dropped to 22.1% of GDP from 28.1% during April-June 2020 which is an alarming issue. The depleting household savings and falling incomes will have an adverse effect on household member’s health care expenditure, school expenditure and standard of living including domestic consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP.

Way forward:

Government relief measures like free rations, cash transfers, MGNREGA, PM-KISAN payments, pension payments Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) and the Atmanirbhar Bharat packages have provided the soothing effect to most vulnerable population from pandemic in 2020. Government’s policy response to Covid-19 pandemic crisis is still to be reached at the needy people, particularly MSME sector. Nevertheless, the economic mayhem caused by the pandemic requires not only increasing the size and scope of the present economic relief scheme but also introducing new economic relief and reconstruction measures by considering substantial increase in the fund allocation to MGNREGA to support rural employment and to reduce the employment stress on rural areas. Potential employment opportunities can be created to the masses through MSMEs; thus, it is required to give stimulus package for employment linked incentives (ELI) to strengthen MSME sector as well as to boost employment. Credit Line Guarantee Scheme may be positively considered to extend to pandemic hit economic sectors to revive and survive the economy. With the help of technology, rural areas must be equipped for a more dispersed and decentralised growth model with substantial employment contribution. Finally, it is important to remember that the entire population of our country, irrespective of age criteria must be vaccinated to protect the lives against Covid-19 and its variants and also to recover the economy at fast and sustainable pace.

Figure 1: Covid-19 Outbreak in major Countries

Figure 2

Figure 3

 

Figure 4

Table-1:

Table-1: Unemployment in India among educated youth between age group of 15-30
Education	2011-12	2017-18	2018-19	2018-19 (>30 yrs)
Illiterate	1.7	7.1	6.05	0.57
Upto Primary	3	8.3	7.05	0.77
Middle	4.5	13.7	11.6	1.08
Secondary	5.9	14.4	13.6	1.46
Higher secondary	10.8	23.8	19.6	2.04
Graduate	19.2	35.8	33.7	3.06
PG and above	21.3	35.8	32.7	4
Total	6.1	17.8	16.1	1.24

 

Source: NSS 2011-12, PLFS 2017-18 and PLFS 2018-19.

Table-2:

Table-2: Women more likely to lose employment and not return to work
Trajectory	Men	Women
No recovery	7.0	46.6
Delayed job loss	4.3	10.7
Recovery	28.2	23.9
No effect	60.6	18.7
Total	100.0	100.0

 

Source: CMIE-CPHS. Data is for the December 2019-April 2020-December 2020 panel

Authors Brief Bio: Dr. S. Lingamurthy is Assistant Professor at Central University of Karnataka and Ms. Anandi Gunda is a volunteer intern student, Hyderabad

References:

[1] https://www.who.int/

[2] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

[3] https://www.gisaid.org/phylodynamics/

[4] GayathriVaidyanathan, Nature 593, 321-322 (2021)

[5] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

[6]https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

[7] Andrews, MA; et al, Indian Journal of Medical Research. 151 (5): 490

[8] Shivani Kumar, Hindustan Times, 11 June 2020

[9] Shivani Kumar, The Week, 20 May 2020

[10] The Economic Times. 18 October 2020

[11] Journal of Industrial and Business Economics. 47 (3): 519–530

[12] Ministry of Home Affairs Unlock 5.0 official guidelines on their official website

[13] The Indian Express. 9 May 2021

[14] pib.gov.in. 12 August 2020

[15] Ministry of External Affairs – Government of India. 20 May 2021

[16] https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/

[17] M, Kaunain Sheriff, The Indian Express, 5 May 2021

[18] https://www.mygov.in/covid-19

[19] ILO Monitor: Covid19 and the World of work, seventh edition, updated estimates and analysis, 25^th January 2021, https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_767028.pdf, accessed on 22^nd June 2021

[20] https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/210m-daily-output-loss-in-india-over-april-june-in-severe-scenario-s-p-global-ratings-121050800608_1.html, accessed on 22^nd June 2021

[21] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/01/05/global-economy-to-expand-by-4-percent-in-2021-vaccine-deployment-and-investment-key-to-sustaining-the-recovery, accessed on 21^st June 2021

[22] Ecowrap, SBI Research, Issue No. 13, FY22, 25^th May 2021

[23] National Sample Survey 2011-12, PLFS 2017-18 and PLFS 2018-19.

[24] Centre for Sustainable Employment, ‘State of Working in India – 2021, one year of COVID19’, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, Karnataka, https://cse.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/state-of-working-india/, accessed on 22^nd June 2021

Introduction

Unconventional threats of all types and hues, often looks for gaps in the system. A disgruntled person, a vulnerable communication protocol between key positions of power, unrest amongst the population, leaders with allegiance to contrary ideologies, people with compromised credentials and suspect integrity, are all targets for penetration.

While India is the most vibrant of all the democracies in the world, it is also the most chaotic. Indian scriptures talk of balancing chaos and order, while Western mythologies depict the two locked in a zero-sum battle in which order must triumph. That is a reality which holds good for the present day and times. Even in chaos there is an order where everyone is included. The pandemic which engulfed the world and in with which India is now engaged in combatting the second wave, is but one form of an unconventional threat. Here, the severity of the onslaught of the second wave stretched India’s health infrastructure to almost breaking point, leaving the people vulnerable and forced for the most part to fend for themselves. The chaos was therefore without any order.

India’s adversaries consider existence of chaos as a weakness and make persistent efforts to penetrate and dismantle our system. The last two millennium have however proved that our civilisation is robust enough to withstand any onslaught despite losing military and political control. Today, India is a militarily strong power when it comes to conventional means and is an enigma in the unconventional domain for its adversaries. India’s enemies have therefore resorted to emerging technologies to innovate and perforate that invincible shield of our nation.

The Challenge

The last two years have seen an onslaught of events which, when connected together, indicate attempts being made to destabilise India economically, militarily, diplomatically and politically. It would be unwise to see these events in isolation, instead of as a coordinated multi-frontal attack. If viewed in isolation, the response matrix to each of the challenges would be significantly different to the response options that could be exercised when viewed through a holistic perspective. As an example, response to cross border terrorism emanating from Pakistan, led to more robust ripostes in the form of surgical strikes by the Army and an air strike by the Indian Air Force on the Jaish-e-Mohammed camp in Balakot, which has had a salutary impact on the security situation in the country.

To effectively deal with an unconventional threat, we need to examine the the following, to enable us to deal effectively with the threat:

• Assess the nature, scale and reach of the threat.
• Identify the organisation and the group of countries associated with the threat.
• Determine the ability of the enemy to execute the attack and its capacity to sustain the same.
• Real time damage assessment and prediction of future enemy manoeuvres.
• Ability to quantify and deploy resources to contain and diffuse the attack.

The Covid-19 Pandemic

The extent of death, devastation and financial damage the country has suffered due to this pandemic, together with the whole world is manifold as compared to the series of terrorist strikes seen in a whole decade. A clear awareness as to how the pandemic originated, therefore, would have mandated a different strategy and course of action.

The Covid-19 pandemic has confirmed to us the possibility of a hostile power carrying out bio-warfare, with the outbreak being considered by the target population as a natural occurrence and not a planned attack. Such lack of awareness on the part of the targeted population lets the perpetrators scot-free, and emboldens them to plan for and execute further attacks. It is therefore of paramount importance that the cause should be made public at the first available opportunity, so that the adversary is deterred.

Since awareness is a key parameter in determining the course of response; the mechanism to gather and confirm the information therefore takes centre-stage. In a connected world, every piece of information is mostly available. With technologies like Bigdata analytics, it is possible in reasonable time frame to foresee the enemy plans shaping up even before the execution of any attack. Eventuality, modelling for any potential disaster situation has to become an essential part of our everyday routine.

Awareness during an unconventional threat is essential through all the stages of its progression. An unconventional attack mostly subverts and stresses the infrastructure it targets. The Covid-19 pandemic has subverted the entire health infrastructure worldwide. A proper digital platform could have acted as a shield and have absorbed the impact before the physical infrastructure got exposed. This could definitely have prevented the collapse of the machinery as a whole at the least.

The Indian Response

A fundamental weakness in dealing with the pandemic in India has been that despite being declared as a war, it is being fought by multiple agencies as small battles in their respective domains and regions. Consequently, resource management has been sub-optimal, leading to critical shortages in some places and sending the population into a wild frenzy. While it is very important to name the fight as a War, it is of greater importance to fight it as a War.

India’s response, as indeed of the whole world too, on the information warfare front was also sub-optimal. In early January 2020, the indications and enormity of the pandemic was evident in the public domain, yet even the developed countries chose to overlook the impending catastrophe. In India, while the political and medical response for the pandemic was remarkably well handled, the country could have better addressed the challenges on the information warfare front and put in place a converged platform to aid and optimise the healthcare infrastructure. The country had time from February 2020 to April 2021 to put such a system in place.

Platforms like Aarogya Setu were not adequately designed to address the right problem matrix. Consequently, in the midst of the second wave the country was caught on the wrong foot on multiple counts. The lack of adequate information to the masses added to the chaos, which in turn led to further accelerating the spread of the pandemic. Not only did the country as a whole let its guard down prematurely, we collectively refused to envision the lull before the storm. The lessons to be learnt are stark, and the realisation is still dawning upon us, as to how the right decisions, choices and strategies could have made us put up a better show.

A Future Response Strategy

Fighting this war by manual planning or conventional methods cannot yield any results whatsoever. Systems in silos add more to the chaos than deliver meaningful results. It is therefore vital that a comprehensive enterprise grade solution which can receive, purify and transform information from multiple solution frameworks be made available as a pre requisite at the earliest. Such a system shall empower the decision makers with a bird’s eye view over the complete area of responsibility (AoR) which can result in swifter and practical problem response matrix. The planning would then be not on speculative or presumptive data but rather on actuals.

An unconventional warfare always creates a higher coefficient of “Fog of War”. The only method for the fog to be decluttered is by generating realtime intelligence on the adversary, coupled with the assessment of damage caused by the attack. The damage shall always indicate the source and origin of the threat while the intelligence machinery shall give vital insights into the reactions of the adversary. In short it is a closed loop with one system feeding into the other and generating new set of possible outcomes.

To effectively deal with a future pandemic or any other unconventional threat, the following aspects mandatorily need to be in place.

• Fight the unconventional threat under one single agency with a unified command and control, who shall be directly accountable to the CCS (Cabinet Committee on Security).
• NDMA should be led by a senior military officer rather than a bureaucrat, considering the lack of experience in matters of strategy, wartime planning and agile execution of the latter. We have to remember that the best people to ward of any threat of such scale and reach is always the armed forces.
• Risk forecasting and Risk mitigation strategies for all known events must be ready at all times for execution during a regime of attack. Every war should be fought with a war plan, with sufficient scope to be flexible as per the demands of time.
• The organisational structure should be powered by a converged digital platform which shall process multi-disciplinary information, so as to create a unified synthetic picture of the exact state of operations in real-time. An indigenous AI enabled Risk Informed Decision Support (RIDS) platform is an ideal solution framework for this requirement.

The country has moved heaven and earth to fight the pandemic. The efforts and intentions while being laudable, could have achieved a great deal more, if synergy had been created at all levels. Adding to the challenge is opportunistic politics, which acts as a friction to the prevalent fog of war. The National Health Authority undertaking the Digital Health Mission needs an immediate overhaul with experts who are conversant with the subject. These small measures can significantly change the course of this war and leave the country better prepared to fight future threats.

Author Brief Bio: Wg Cdr S Sudhakaran (V) is MD & CEO, QuGates Technologies

At the time of writing, the world is facing a pandemic from Covid-19 that was first discovered in November 2019 in the city of Wuhan in China. By March 2020, many of the world’s governments announced lockdowns to curb the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus which caused Covid-19. As of 20 June 2021, over 176 million people around the world have been affected by the virus, and over thirty-seven lakh lives lost – even after sound medical care in many cases. India experienced a ‘second wave’, despite a robust vaccination program, in April 2021 when it reported over one lakh cases a day. With its vast population, the country has, in the second wave, both the maximum number of new cases and deaths. Although the number of new cases by end June have drastically reduced, the pandemic is far from over.

As demonstrated by this pandemic, the question is not “if” a country will be affected but rather “when”. It is believed that developing countries are more vulnerable and that pandemics strike hardest at the most marginalised, the poorest and the most vulnerable groups as they lack the awareness and preparedness to deal with a pandemic.

This article explores the contribution of Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) during the pandemic in India. In order to do so, the article first discusses the role of NGOs in pandemic preparedness and then gives examples of contributions of various NGOs in India.

The Role of NGOs in Pandemic Preparedness

With increases in population and skewed concentration of people in urban areas, it is argued that NGOs “have the opportunity and the responsibility to play a major role in preparedness, response, impact mitigation and advocacy to lessen the consequences”^[i] of a pandemic, particularly amongst the poor and vulnerable groups. NGOs have the required presence, skill and experience to be able to contribute during pandemic planning and response. In particular, scholars believe that NGOs can contribute most in areas of health, economic aid, education and community-based surveillance.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) issued ten ‘Guiding Principles for International Outbreak Alert and Response’ in 2009, that state how nations must respond to outbreaks of international importance, including pandemics, and how to coordinate efforts between parties on field. Of importance is guiding principle number seven that outlines the role of NGOs. It states, “There is recognition of the unique role of national and international non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the area of health, including in the control of outbreaks. NGOs providing support that would not otherwise be available, particularly in reaching poor populations”^[ii].

The scientific community agrees on four ways to reduce the effects and spread of any pandemic—vaccination, antiviral drug use, medical care and public health systems. Here, NGOs can contribute on-ground towards both prevention and preparedness through information dissemination, education, and community-based health care drives. On a policy level, they can inform decisions through surveillance, and by identifying and reporting potential ‘hotspots’ such as slums, high density residential colonies, or poorly ventilated areas. They can also bridge the gap between governments and international bodies such as the WHO that typically monitor pandemics. More importantly, they can bridge the gap between governments and citizens and are better placed to identify the needs of a community, including those that are hard to reach. Finally, NGOs can employ their networks, to share and amplify information.

In the very first week of lockdown in March 2020 in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on NGOs to help the government in dealing with the pandemic^[iii]. He urged them to provide basic necessities to the underprivileged such as medical and protective gear and more importantly to spread information on awareness campaigns such as washing hands, wearing masks and maintaining social distancing. The NITI Aayog too, reached out to over 92,000 NGOs during the first few months of the onset of the pandemic to “boost cross-sectoral collaboration”^[iv] and exploit NGOs network to ensure effective distribution of essentials. More importantly, they needed help in spreading awareness among the rural population to educate them on Covid-19, on techniques to identify the virus, the precautionary measures that should be taken and when to seek medical care.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, many NGOs used social network platforms like Instagram, Facebook and Twitter to share and amplify information regarding vaccination centres, vaccine availability, vaccine safety, and to help individuals in need of oxygen, blood or a hospital bed. NGOs also used their network to bring doctors together on online platforms, to provide free medical advice to those affected by Covid-19.

Examples of contribution of NGOs in India

Over 90,000 NGOs were contacted by NITI Aayog to help the government in dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic. Every NGOs contribution is significant, no matter how big or small. It is beyond the scope of this paper to examine the contribution of every NGO. Therefore, it looks at a select few as examples of the role of NGOs and their contribution during the pandemic, through activities such as distribution of food and essential supplies, blood donation and plasma donation drives, support groups and raising awareness.

Rashtriya Sewa Bharati

The Rashtriya Sewa Bharati conducted several large scale, nationwide activities to support communities during Covid-19. The organisation was inspired by the acts of humanity by social reformers such as Swami Vivekananda, and under different state units, carried out Covid-19 relief efforts^[v]. It mobilised over half a million volunteers and served at 92,656 towns across India^[vi]. Among its various activities, it distributed food and food supplies to over seven million families, and food packets to 45 million people^[vii]. This is perhaps the largest outreach programme conducted during a pandemic in India. Apart from food, the volunteers also distributed over nine million masks and donated more than 60,000 units of blood. The volunteers even helped over 44 lakh migrant workers, an oft forgotten, under represented and vulnerable group, since the first lockdown in India in March 2020. These migrants come from across the country and many were stranded or left with few opportunities to return to their hometowns. The Rashtriya Sewa Bharati set up over 400 medical centres across the country for migrants. In addition, they created over 900 help centres at bus stations and railways stations in India to help the migrants return to their hometowns. They also actively helped to secure jobs for the migrant workers once lockdown was lifted^[viii].

Another activity that was conducted under Covid-19 relief was the restoration of old and unused hospitals into Covid-19 centres. One such example is the Bharat Gold Mines Limited (BGML) hospital in Kolar, Karnataka that was unused for nearly twenty years^[ix]. A group of 300 volunteers from the organisation came together to restore the hospital and cleared it of weeds, debris and cobwebs. Within two weeks, a 300-bed hospital was set up, equipped with oxygen facility^[x]. The organisation also formed a ‘Covid Response Team’ (CRT) dedicated towards aid and relief during the pandemic. The CRT created a helpline along with volunteers and over hundred doctors. In just over a month, the helpline had received 88,000 calls^[xi]. The organisation also conducted health camps across Chennai, Bengaluru, Gorakhpur and Pune, among other cities as mentioned in Akhil Bharatiya Annual Report^[xii]. The organisation was able to modify its programmes to suit the needs of the pandemic. For instance, in 2020, the focus was on helping migrant workers by providing them with food and safety, while in 2021 the focus shifted towards medical assistance—procuring oxygen, hospital beds, donating plasma, and conducting cremations.

The Hemkunt Foundation

Another NGO, the Hemkunt Foundation based in New Delhi, provided over 360 tons of meals to migrant workers. The NGO grew to international recognition during the second Covid-19 wave for its efforts in organising oxygen, medicines and hospital beds for those in need^[xiii]. The organisation is based in New Delhi, which was badly affected during the second wave of the pandemic. The NGO, working out of makeshift camps in Gurgaon, provided oxygen through cars. They also created a facility with 700 medical beds, a fleet of ambulances, and distributed food to families affected by the virus. At the peak of the second wave, the Foundation even provided oxygen to hospitals in need, and launched a “drive through” oxygen initiative to provide oxygen to patients inside their cars^[xiv]. The Foundation operates through over 100 volunteers and has 5,000 donors globally, a lot of whom donated through various social media campaigns. The money raised was used toward Covid-19 relief.

CRY

Child Rights and You (CRY) is another NGO that did extensive work during the pandemic. Founded in 1979 in Delhi, the NGO focuses its attention on an oft neglected group—young children. The organisation partners with other local NGOs to provide its services, ranging from basic health and hygiene kits for children to cooked meals every day. They paid particular focus to abandoned children and those that were left as orphans due to the deadly pandemic. To raise awareness about Covid-19 they conducted home visits for those without a phone, maintaining all social distancing protocols, and released campaigns through phone calls and WhatsApp including videos on how to wash hands. These campaigns revolved around public health and hygiene and behaviour change, sanitisation, and the proper use of face masks. Since the closure of government schools, and consequently the mid-day meal programme, many children were unable to get proper nutrition and timely immunisation. The organisation raised money to feed children, and also created programmes that focused on the psychological well-being of children, particularly for those who had not attended school due to the pandemic. In 2020-21, CRY was able to impact over six lakh children through their various programmes^[xv]. By focusing their attention on vulnerable children, the organisation helped ensure that the pandemic does not leave a trail of child rights crisis in the long term.

ISKCON

The International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON), founded in 1966 in New York has grown in presence across the world. Through their network of temples and rural communities, hundreds of affiliated vegetarian restaurants, and thousands of local meeting groups, they were able to carry out impressive work during the pandemic. During the on-going ‘second wave’ of the pandemic in India, ISKCON set up a fully functional, free facility with 200 beds, ten doctors and 18 nurses at Dwarka, New Delhi. The temporary facility included an ICU and ventilator facility, and patients were given nutritious meals. Apart from the hospital facility, ISKCON was already engaged in delivering free, safe and hygienic food to COVID patients at their doorstep under the ‘ISKCON Food Relief Initiative’. During the pandemic, 140 million plates of food were served through 77 kitchens spread across the country—perhaps one of the biggest such initiatives in the country. These meals were served to those stranded without support at home, to those forced to maintain social distancing within their homes, to entire families affected by coronavirus, to daily wage workers, low-income families and migrant workers. The vision of ISKCON during the pandemic was that “no one within a 10-mile radius of its centre should go hungry, which is even truer in today’s context”^[xvi]. Food insecurity is an even bigger issue during a pandemic, particularly for those who cannot afford to ‘stock pile’. To address this challenge, on every day of the pandemic, hundreds of monks and volunteers prepared fresh food and delivered it to to the doorsteps of those in need, apart from setting up temporary food camps across cities in India. By partnering with government agencies, ISKCON was able to identify areas that were most in need of such food camps.

Green Dream Foundation

The Green Dream Foundation, a smaller NGO in size than others on this list, mainly deals with environmental issues but tweaked their programmes to help during the pandemic. At the onset of the pandemic, the Foundation, along with a few IIT graduates, started COVID SOS, a platform to help senior citizens and physically challenged people. Using WhatsApp and GPS technology they could find volunteers within walking distance of the person in need. Volunteers performed errands for those who could not leave their homes and also supplied emergency services and equipment and essentials. The platform has over a thousand volunteers across 10 cities.

Others

Some NGOs work in focus areas or limited locations and are not spread across the country. These NGOs are better suited to serve the needs of the communities they work with. One such NGO is The Enrich Lives Foundation, formerly known as The Annapurna Movement. It works in and around Mumbai, Maharashtra, with a special focus on its slums. The NGO, founded during the first wave of Covid-19 in March 2020, works with the express aim of aiding those in need affected by the pandemic. They put special focus on women, nutrition and public health. The Enrich Lives Foundation distributed food grains and grocery (ration) kits, and also helped those who lost work due to the pandemic to regain employment. The ration kits included wheat, rice, oil and pulses. During the pandemic they distributed over 10 lakh meals, over 30,000 ration kits, and Covid-19 relief material such as masks and sanitisers, worth rupees five crore. They raised funds mainly through online platforms like Ketto and Give India.

Not strictly started as NGOs but worth a mention is the contribution of some individuals with tremendous social media influence who have helped in Covid-19 relief either directly or by channelling funds through NGOs or by amplifying messages and the work of various NGOs. One such person is Bollywood actor Sonu Sood, who is considered by many to be at the forefront of charity work during the pandemic. He was instrumental in setting up oxygen plants in places like Kurnool and Nellore, both in Andhra Pradesh, that catered to government hospitals. His team also distributed over 700 oxygen concentrators to patients undergoing Covid-19 home treatment, and also created a shot video to raise awareness on India’s vaccination programme. Today, he channels his Covid-19 relief efforts through his newly created Sood Foundation.

Conclusion

The importance of NGOs cannot be underestimated for five main reasons. First, they intimately understand community needs and are better placed to help during a pandemic. NGOs work with a range of vulnerable populations, possess a deep understanding of their needs, have rapports with the communities for years and are more suited to be the first point of contact and help during a pandemic. Second, NGOs have the ability to adapt to pandemic constraints, enabling them to continue supporting vulnerable populations. They can also tweak their existing programmes to suit the needs of the pandemic and to suit the community context. Third, NGOs play a pivotal role in raising awareness and educating the public about Covid-19 as they can use the networks of trust they have built, within the communities they work with. They can do this through effective on-ground programmes, text messages, WhatsApp and social networks. This is particularly useful in raising awareness of the importance of vaccinations. Four, NGOs can customise their outreach programmes to suit the needs of the local communities they serve. This puts NGOs in a unique position unlike government programmes that have a ‘one size fits all’ approach. Five, NGOs can step in when governments cannot, and can provide services that governments do not. In the case of Covid-19 and the present pandemic, masks, soap, water and sanitisers are essentials. Most of these ‘essentials’ are unaffordable to many sections of the population. Although the government advisories require wearing of masks, how many are in a position to afford them? In cases like this NGOs can step in to distribute masks for free to those who cannot afford them. The above examples throw light on how NGOs have done this. Finally, the biggest constraint that any NGO faces is in raising money to carry out their activities. Here, the public and donations from large organisations come handy. During this pandemic, we witnessed large and genuine outreach programmes to raise money for Covid-19 relief that NGOs of all scales and sizes, were able to channel towards relief programmes.

Author Brief Bio: Shreya has completed her masters in development from the Institute of Development Studies, UK. She has previously been associated with ORF and is currently a Senior Research Fellow at India Foundation.

^[i] Mahmood, Jemilah (2009). ‘The Role of Non-Governmental Organizations in Pandemic Prepardness’ S Rajaratnam School of International Studies https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/resrep05905.21.pdf?ab_segments=0%252Fbasic_search_gsv2%252Fcontrol&refreqid=excelsior%3A49565b3320e90dd6690f94bc7c00cf83

^[ii] Giorgetti, Chiara (2010). The Principled Approach to State Failure: International Community Actions in Emergency Situations. Page 95, accessed via Google Books.

^[iii] Indian Express 2020. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/crime/coronavirus-india-lockdown-help-govt-serve-poor-pm-modi-to-ngos-6339236/

^[iv] Times of India 2020. https://government.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/governance/civil-society-the-third-pillar-of-strength-in-fight-against-coronavirus/75642349

^[v] https://www.rashtriyasewabharati.org/

^[vi] https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rss-annual-report-reflects-a-year-of-pandemic-related-service-across-india-301253050.html

^[vii] Ibid

^[viii] https://indianexpress.com/article/india/rss-in-the-time-of-covid-from-plasma-donation-to-conducting-last-rites-6548122/

^[ix] https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/how-the-rss-s-covid-relief-campaign-is-helping-thousands-1805971-2021-05-23

^[x] Ibid

^[xi] https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/how-the-rss-s-covid-relief-campaign-is-helping-thousands-1805971-2021-05-23

^[xii] https://www.rss.org/Akhil%20Bharatiya%20%20Annual%20Report%202021%20English.pdf

^[xiii] https://qz.com/india/2008877/how-hemkunt-foundation-helped-10000-indians-during-oxygen-crisis/

^[xiv] https://qz.com/india/2008877/how-hemkunt-foundation-helped-10000-indians-during-oxygen-crisis/

^[xv] https://www.cry.org/protect-children-in-covid-world-resilience-recovery/

^[xvi] http://iskconfoodrelief.com/

Dhruv C Katoch

Afghanistan is going through perhaps one of the most critical phases in its history today. May 2021 was a bloody month in Afghanistan with the strife torn country getting more volatile and politically unstable. Taking advantage of the commencement of the final drawdown of the US-led international forces, the Taliban have intensified efforts to capture more areas with its ties with Al-Qaeda intact and the so-called Islamic State Khorasan Province acting in harmony with the Islamist forces. Within Afghanistan, political unity remains fragile. Most Afghans overwhelmingly want peace, but also want to preserve the current constitutional system that includes democracy, personal freedoms, a free media, and women’s rights. The Taliban have said little to reassure citizens that their views have changed from the extreme restrictions they brutally enforced in the 1990s.

As a Member of the Afghanistan Parliament, and as a woman who is holding a political and public office in an extraordinary complex conflict zone, what has been your experience, Ms Farid, of life in this extremely violent conflict zone.

Naheed A Farid

It is not just about my experience but the experience of the majority of women in Afghanistan. Afghanistan as a territory has been ranked as one that has been the most violated geography in the world. It has been ranked as the worst place for women, based on the global index of terrorism. Women in Afghanistan have great difficulty in accessing their basic needs and their basic rights. They have difficulty to work, to study outside their home, so forget about being in the public service or in Parliament, being a woman in that territory and in that society is difficult.

As a representative of the people in this society, I have the pleasure that I got elected in two elections, to represent the amazing people and the amazing women of Afghanistan who, within all this hardship, continued through life. They continued to shine in their country, continued to become engineers, doctors, ministers, pilots, cyber security experts —- we have women in all areas and they have been extraordinary. So, living in Afghanistan is difficult, but when you promise yourself that you will be the agent of change, and you promise yourself that you will make a difference in a society that needs you, then forget about the impediments and the barriers. You go forward, and I see the enthusiasm amongst my followers and my people. They back me, they support me and that gives me a lot of energy to move forward.

Dhruv C Katoch

You are a very young parliamentarian and so you have a direct connection with the youth of your country. How do you connect with the older generation of women and men in Afghanistan?

Naheed A Farid

Well, we have different missions. One of the missions is that we have to have the human rights backing in the very critical role that we have. We have to get connected to those who started the movement hundreds of years ago and who have since then, taken it forward. The Queen, the family of the Queen, the women rights activists that we have in the history of Afghanistan, the older generation which has good experience in the time of civil war; we have women who worked for women rights, not only in Afghanistan but also in Pakistan and Iran, they have worked in the camps of immigrants to help the women—imagine, we have that kind of women. In history, we have different players, we have to just get connected to the past, have a vision for the future and that is how we can move forward. We learn from the past, from the leaders in the past and also, I think, having new tools in our hand, the technology, the media, the new Constitution of Afghanistan which is very democratic, we can create a movement that can work in the future and bring the country to prosperity and make a difference.

Dhruv C Katoch

Many analysts who study Afghanistan are of the view that ideological differences will mar the formation of a government in Afghanistan and that sooner rather than later, the nation will slip into civil war. How do you see the peace process unfolding in the coming months?

Naheed A Farid

You know, the peace process that we have now is a multitude of challenges. One of the challenges is that the Taliban are not agreeing to the fundamentals of a negotiation to happen. For example, accepting the ceasefire, or reducing the levels of violence, that we have given as the pre-condition to start the peace talks. The government the Taliban wants, the Emirates of Taliban, will not be accepted by the people of Afghanistan. We refer to the Constitution on one side and the Taliban on the other side, but in the process, we forget the 30 million Afghan people; we forget 70 percent of the people who are the youth, we forget 50 percent of the people who are women, and these are the forces that will bring change in the future of the country, not the Taliban. We forget them and we just ignore them and we say that the Taliban wants an Islamic Emirate. And the ideology of Taliban, I believe, is just the cover. Taliban are the tools that are directed by state sponsored terrorism, that is backed by Pakistan, and other players that back Pakistan, to destabilise the country.

And forget about the ideology, do you remember the time when the Taliban said that they fight because they want to remove international forces from Afghanistan? But after signing the deal with the United States they said that they would continue fighting against the Afghan soldiers, but they would stop fighting against the US soldiers! If they had the ideology, that the jihad is a holy jihad against international forces, and the US forces, then why did it happen in an agreement. So, Taliban ideology is just a cover. Behind that, there is a group that is misused by Pakistan to destabilise Afghanistan, because Pakistan views Afghanistan as its strategic depth for them, and if the Taliban loses, then Pakistan also loses and if Taliban wins, then Pakistan also wins.

Dhruv C Katoch

Let me now ask you a theoretical question. If the Taliban were to actually take over the country, will the youth of Afghanistan actively resist them?

Naheed A Farid

If you conduct a poll today, then forget about the youth, a majority of the people of Afghanistan, regardless of age and gender, will oppose the Taliban. They do not want the country to go back into the darkness of the regime they had in Afghanistan. Because the experience they had of the rule of the Taliban, the suppression and the limitations they imposed on the people of Afghanistan has not been forgotten. So, even if the Taliban comes back to power, though I do not see that happening in my analysis, but even if that happens, they may take the power, but they cannot keep it. Because people do not like them; they are not popular; people do not love them. Yes, if there is a new government, it must keep the promise that besides the security of the people they will provide basic rights to the people of Afghanistan. Besides security, they must provide development, access to education, access to health, access to basic needs, basic rights, infrastructure, development—that is the government people will accept, even if the Taliban is promising that. But if the government of the Taliban were to bring backwardness and move back to the darkness of the Taliban regime, then that will not last and people will not accept it.

Dhruv C Katoch

Let us take another theoretical concept that the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban have agreed to work together. What are the compromises that each side will have to make to enable such a solution?

Naheed A Farid

I would think that there would be a division of power within the different powers of the Afghanistan state—the Legislature, the Executive and the Judiciary; so Taliban would certainly be interested in the judiciary system of Afghanistan to rule. Taliban would be interested in some Cabinet membership, they would be interested in having membership in Afghanistan’s Parliament, and that was a kind of proposal that was given by the Special Representative of the US, Mr Zalmay Khalilzad, with different options. I think that would be the face of the political settlement that we would have, if the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan, both agree. But how it actually works is another scenario and will depend on how Taliban keeps the promises, how Pakistan keeps the promises and how regional players will see themselves in that deal. That also is very important—who is going to make the Taliban accountable; who is going to implement the deal? Is there any government that is kind of an interim government that the parties agree to or not? These are the things that will take a long time to work on and to bring to action. A lot of effort is required and I think we have to see this, not just as an overnight activity but as a solution that keeps the process to happen.

Dhruv C Katoch

So, what you are suggesting is that it will take time and will evolve over a period of years. Now let us talk about gender issues. When we look into Afghan history, and see the photos of young Afghan women in the mid-1950s and beyond, it is quite apparent that women in Afghanistan were free and emancipated. That changed during the Taliban rule, and we witnessed the total suppression of women. What are the concerns of women in the peace process and are they being appropriately voiced? Will the Taliban be able to suppress women in the present times as they did in the 1990s.

Naheed A Farid

Let me give you an example. The baby girl that was born in 2001, is 20 years old now. She has lived in a totally different situation and like me, she does not have the experience of living under Taliban oppression. That baby girl is the majority now. And bringing that generation back to the darkness of the Taliban, will not be acceptable to them. And if they do not accept, then we just cannot ignore them. They are not just one or two or three people, they are the majority and they are the present reality of the country. Even if the Taliban comes to power, they have to accept the new reality, they have to accept the new generation.

Under the Constitution, Afghanistan, is an Islamic country. Nothing in Afghanistan can happen against Islam. The legal process is based on Islam, Islamic procedures are based on Islam, everything is based on Islam. We all are practising co-existence that exists in Islam. And if Taliban are having their own interpretation of Islam, they are free to do so, but we are not buying it. The new Afghanistan cannot be the Afghanistan that they want to create in terms of their interpretation of Islam. Daesh also says that there is an Islam that they interpret, but who is buying it? That is the issue that is very important to understand. Based on the kind of picture that the Taliban have, we should not fit such a big history and country—a country with so much pride, into the interpretation of Islam that the Taliban have.

Dhruv C Katoch

Basically, what you are stating is that despite the fact that the Taliban have the guns, and assuming that they do manage to come into power, they will not be able to enforce their diktat on the women. Is that what you are stating and will there be resistance, should they attempt to do so?

Naheed A Farid

When the Taliban join the peace process, they will have to put down their guns. If they want to continue to fight, then we will fight. If Taliban thinks they can capture the country by force, then we can also fight against them. The Afghanistan Army is a very capable army, both in numbers and in ability and capability, we are bigger and better than the Taliban. So we will fight. It is upto the Taliban to choose—come to a compromise solution or continue the bloody war.

Dhruv C Katoch

Getting back to the Afghan National Security Forces, I agree that they are capable and can take on the Taliban as they have been doing since the last few years. But there will be a problem when it comes to financing the security forces. Do you think aid from the US and the West will continue in the quantum required, to enable the Afghan government to maintain the forces at their current equipment and manning levels, post the drawdown of US and coalition forces?

Naheed A Farid

The state of the Afghan economy is obviously not adequate to maintain such large security forces.  That is why our international allies, including the United States, have given the assurance that financing of the security forces will continue, to maintain the forces at their current level. So, from that point of view, Afghanistan does not have any concerns. Concerns that I have as a Member of Parliament and a representative of the people, is ensuring that the Afghan Army remains strong and capable. We must back the Afghan Army, support them, and keep them in a state of high morale. How do we give them enough equipment, enough intelligence? The Afghan army is the most faithful ally of the values we uphold in the country and also of the values that countries like India uphold, because they are fighting against international terrorism and terrorist groups such as the al Qaeda, which also threaten your values, your souls as Indians. So, the Afghan National Security Forces are the most faithful ally of the Afghan people, of India and of the United States, as they are fighting for the same values against international terrorism.

We need to see that they get the support that is required to combat the forces that are engaged in terrorism and which can destabilise the country and the region. The Afghan Security Forces are most patriotic and they are fighting in very difficult areas. We are backing them fully and are very proud of them. We must see that they are given the wherewithal to enable them to fight and defeat terror groups and organisations.

Dhruv C Katoch

Now, let us come to the role of some of the international players in Afghanistan. How do you see the role of Pakistan and China in influencing the peace process and the role they are likely to play post the drawdown of US forces?

Naheed A Farid

There is no doubt that Afghanistan is experiencing a proxy war because we have different external intelligence groups that are backing different groups of insurgent groups in the country. But the biggest of such groups is the Taliban which is being supported by Pakistan and they continue with their acts of destruction, to destroy the new Afghanistan. In this process, China is backing Pakistan. Unfortunately, neither Pakistan nor China have played a constructive role in Afghanistan in assisting with the development of the country. This is very unfortunate as a destabilised Afghanistan or a destroyed Afghanistan is not in the interest of either China or Pakistan. But they have a short-sighted policy. If all the regional players play a constructive role, that can bring a lot of prosperity to Afghanistan which will in turn benefit China and Pakistan. With better road projects, the silk road project which is the traditional route and the best and shortest route to connect to the the Central Asian Republics and to Europe—will benefit China and Pakistan and this passes through Afghanistan. It is unfortunate that the policies followed by Pakistan are jeopardising not just the future of Afghanistan but also of all the countries in the region.

Dhruv C Katoch

Now to my final question. What are the expectations of the people of Afghanistan from India after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in September this year?

Naheed A Farid

Post the withdrawal, there would be a different situation and I think there would be more room to have collaboration with our friends, including India. India is the largest democracy of the world and we are expecting India to back Afghanistan’s democracy. India is also the largest donor to Afghanistan’s development effort. We would need India’s assistance in rebuilding Afghanistan, so that we can have more infrastructure, more jobs, more schools, more human resources to rebuild Afghanistan. From the perspective of the military, Afghanistan’s security forces would need India’s help in intelligence, in supplying military equipment and building air bases. Most importantly, I think we need India’s diplomacy to help Afghanistan. India can change the narrative. The narrative today is that Afghanistan is a war-torn country, with people who are in need. We can change that narrative to a different and more positive one—that Afghanistan is a country with a long civilisational history, very capable people, and Taliban cannot destroy the face and the history of the country. They cannot destroy the women, the youth, the new generation and the defenders of democracy. In the world, we have to bring forth this new narrative, that Afghanistan is a strong Afghanistan and has supporters like India which is helping Afghanistan to move towards prosperity.

Brief Bios: Ms. Naheed A. Farid is a Member of Afghanistan Parliament and Chair of House Women Affairs Commission and Maj. Gen. Dhruv C. Katoch is Editor, India Foundation Journal and Director, India Foundation.

 

“Future conflicts will increasingly emphasise the disruption of critical infrastructure, societal cohesion and basic government functions in order to secure psychological and geopolitical advantages, rather than defeat of enemy forces on the battlefield through traditional military means.”

                                                — National Intelligence Council, USA

The last half century has witnessed considerable upheavals and changes in geopolitical sparring and the uni-polarity of the United States has come under a shadow. Shifting alignments and the rise of China as an economic and military giant has challenged the geopolitical structure, with China looking for its place as a major player in international reckoning. The subtle shift in the US stance, indicative of a weakened Russia while seemingly acknowledging China’s rise, took place during the Obama Presidency, as it announced the Asia-Pacific rebalance. It was evident that Asia–Pacific was going to be the area of interest in the coming decades. President Trump, an avid China hater, provided a greater push and created the Indo-Pacific region, enlarging USA‘s area of interest and firmly establishing the strategic importance of the region. Renaming of the Pacific Command (PACOM) as the Indo-Pacific Command and enlarging its scope of operational jurisdiction, justified and endorsed the strategic imperatives in the coming years and decades. The fact that 80% of the world’s energy reserves flow through the SLOCs of the Indian Ocean, highlights the criticality, importance and the need for security in the region. India’s geographical location, juxtaposed at the crown of the Indian Ocean has made it a prime player not only in regional dynamics but also in the international arena. It’s growing economy and its judicious interactions and relationship building with major strategic players has projected India into the geopolitical centre-stage.

The security environment has become extremely dynamic in the past one century. Mobility in air travel and connectivity through the electromagnetic spectrum has not only changed but shrunk the world. The huge electronic matrix which now surrounds the world is like the proverbial spider’s web – pretty to look, intricately woven, provides easy access to the user, but deadly or fatal for those who trespass. Technology has assisted in rapid development of infrastructure, promoting business and growth to provide satisfaction to nations and allow economies to blossom. So the success of a nation is a sum of all the resources that go into nation building, from the political dispensation and their control, the industry, the infrastructure, the economy and the people.

The complex and interwoven canvas provides the security to the population. This is national power. In fact, here I would like to bring out what Manoj Joshi said in his article on Comprehensive National Power in The Observer. He has mentioned about the concept pioneered by Ray Cline of the CIA, as far back as 1960. Cline proposed an index-based formula Pp = (C+E+ M) x (S+W), where Pp was Perceived Power, C = Critical Mass (Population +Territory), E = Economic Capability, M = Military Strength, S = Strategic Purpose and W = Will to pursue National Strategy. While this formula would be true in a broad framework, technology has probably added many more variations, with their particular strengths and weaknesses, which will tweak the basic formula into a more complex form. Be that as it may, the essentials remain as a stark index and provide a starting point to harness and focus our country in the right direction, to remain relevant in today’s world. It must also be clearly understood that it is these same elements that throw up vulnerabilities, which, if exposed or compromised, can be exploited by elements inimical to the state or country.

Every country is duty bound to protect its assets and provide security for its population. Under an overarching umbrella of a policy, usually a National Security Strategy, the government is expected to lay down a broad-spectrum plan as to how it will address security threats as they develop for the nation. Sadly, India has never developed a National Security Strategy. Without a guiding principle, the country is floundering like a ship without a rudder in stormy seas. While we have established sub-components like the JIC, NSC, SPG, NSAB, etc. and populated them with very prominent personalities, to the public they seem toothless and wanting in the face of crises that emerge and we falter in the face of adversity.

The last eighteen months have been tumultuous for our country. The rapid spread of the corona virus disease, termed Covid-19, enhanced itself to pandemic proportions as it ravaged the world. While it came later to India than it did in Europe and the USA, there was no doubt that its spread could not be contained easily once it penetrated our borders. The shadow of the horrific Spanish Flu which killed more people in India than anywhere else, was a deadly harbinger of things to come and hung over the country like a cloak till the casualties started building up, exposing the inadequacies of our medical infrastructure. As the cases started manifesting, crippling the population, the fear psychosis heightened and was overwhelmingly evident amongst the population as they saw thousands of people succumbing to the virus in western countries which would surely follow here.

With a psychologically and increasingly medically afflicted population, the weakened nation was vulnerable to external forces. With uncanny timing, India found its northern borders in the Ladakh sector breached by an old aggressor, the Chinese PLA. The intrusion across the LAC came as a surprise, more because of the numbers of troops and the follow-on forces that were amassed, which were substantially higher than what the Indian Army experiences in normal or routine border skirmishes. Alarm bells were justified as the state of border protection and preparedness was exposed in the face of such opposition. The inadequacy of troops, appropriate equipment and munitions, the logistics supply chain effectiveness, all came under the scanner and clearly brought out our lackadaisical attitude and perspective towards national security. The slow degradation of the armed forces with no supplement or enhancement in the defence budget was clearly evident as the country scrambled to procure arms under extraordinary circumstances, obviously at exploitation costs. The question whether there was an intelligence failure involving all agencies which precipitated such a situation will be debated within closed walls, but the fact that the sovereignty of the state was threatened and we have had to recover from a situation where our credibility was at stake, speaks volumes for the armed forces to make most of a bad situation.

Security concerns in the future will not be restricted to protecting the borders and using the military and its war-fighting capability. The canvas of elements has spread so far and wide it makes one shudder at the thought of having to acquire an ability to straddle all domains. Some of the security concerns that come to mind are:

Military Security                        Political Security                         Economic Security

Energy Security                         Infrastructure Security               Human Security

Food Security                            Health Security                            Resource Security

Environment Security              Geostrategic Security                 Disaster Security

Media & Information Base      Diplomacy                                    Cyber Security

As a vast country with diverse population and low education levels, India has a huge problem on its hands to address each and every vulnerability. Over the years it has developed systems which are in place to address security issues regarding that particular system. Unfortunately, a concern for security comes from a sense of belonging. The population must realise the effort being undertaken by the government to keep them safe under so many varied conditions and circumstances. In the diverse environment existing in our country, the democratic ethos sometimes takes on an extreme hue and the sense of unity and homogeneity, which fosters nationalism, is lost. The multi-party political system is so fractured one can never seem to reach a consensus.

Whether it is in our culture or in our psyche, the average Indian will question every decision taken by an authority. The sad part of this is that when there are actions taken with regard to security of the nation, their validity and veracity are questioned openly, ridiculing and embarrassing the government in the public domain. The present dispensation provided the first ever firm response in the form of punitive action against Pakistan, with surgical strikes by the army and a more definitive and penetrative action by the IAF when they struck the Balakot terrorist training camp. Post the action it was horrific to see the opposition parties questioning the veracity and proof of these actions, almost like mouthpieces of the Pakistan government. It was shameful. It is for this fractured attitude and approach that India has fallen prey to marauding militia and subsequently been ruled for centuries by foreign powers, who capitalised on India’s ‘dog eat dog’ attitude providing the opportunity to divide and rule.

Given the huge security matrix, there is a serious need for our people to put their differences aside and become one cohesive whole for this one purpose – Security. Our potential in population and territory makes up a huge chunk of Cline’s formula. If we can gather and preserve that potential to focus in a common direction, for the sake of the country, half the battle is won. Rather than attempting to address all the factors that affect national security, I think some of those which need greater attention would be worth addressing early. There are no shades of grey in hard power considerations. If it comes to military engagement with the enemy, equipment and manpower cannot be compromised. It is only hard power of military action that can preserve sovereignty of the nation and integrity of the country’s territory. Not too far back an Indian Army Chief, when questioned whether he had the means to fight a two-front war with Pakistan and China, said, “Yes and we will fight with what we have.” The statement clearly defines a true soldier, who will give his blood for the motherland despite the odds and the lack of material support provided him.

Our defence budget has been found wanting for the past few decades. This has contributed to a greater disproportionate efficacy in capability in a modern and rapidly changing battlefield scenario. Technology has pushed legacy equipment into the background, in the face of state-of-the-art weapon systems existing today. Given our extensive land borders with Pakistan, China and the 7000 + kms coastline, the need for numbers can never be more evident. To subsist on a defence budget which has seen paltry, if any, increments in the past three decades, is an affront to the military and its potential to defend the nation. There has not been a single war in the history of independent India when we didn’t have to turn to another country to fortify our needs for arms and ammunition. We should feel embarrassed.

Modi government’s huge thrust on development across the board, from infrastructure growth, to agriculture, railways, road networks, power to villages, connectivity of all kinds etc., will necessitate huge amounts of energy. With energy consumption doubling in the last one decade, the rising economy and increase in population, the reliance on regular supply of energy cannot be ignored. With a huge dependence on coal and thermal energy, India’s additional resources through hydropower and natural gas will remain a major factor in any consideration. China’s phenomenal growth has propelled her energy requirements to unprecedented levels and protecting its channelisation through the SLOCs in the Indian Ocean and the choke points at the Gulf of Hormuz and the Straits of Malacca are causes of concern to China. Similarly, India must be concerned with not only the sources of energy and their security but also of the means to transport such energy across the length and breadth of this vast country safely.

As just mentioned, industrial development and growth of any nation is clearly defined by the creation of infrastructure which will propel the nation forward and provide it the rightful place in the modern world. The growth of industry necessitates large investments in infrastructure and in turn the creation of road networks and rail services to move raw materials across great distances. Securing infrastructure against sabotage or natural calamities should be a priority for sustained growth and development. India has well set up security systems, whether govt controlled or privately owned, for most developmental projects. While recruiting manpower for security agencies may not be much of an issue, their dedication and commitment are sometimes questionable.

The media has emerged as an extremely powerful tool in society and the day-to-day happenings in the world. News and information have, through years, influenced the human mind, thereby eliciting actions and decisions which may not have occurred otherwise. This ability to influence the human mind and thus groups, societies and even governments has had some very serious repercussions, positive and negative, in the recent past. The information domain, highly computerised and professionally managed, can now throw up statistical data and analyses at the drop of a hat. So convincing are these that individuals, organisations and governments have used the media to project their side of the picture. The success of the advertising world hinges around exactly this projection, which enhances a product. But the same media or information source can be tweaked by those who wish to disrupt societies or governments, weakening their authority and trying to reduce government to naught. While it may have been in existence (maybe in horse racing news), ‘Fake News’ was an unknown entity up until some years ago, when suddenly the tweaked information domain started knocking on the top rungs of government and even threatened their credibility and existence. While fundamental rights hold sway and the media cannot be throttled, other than in authoritarian states like China, they remain a tool which could turn unsavory in the hands of undesirable elements.

Perhaps the factor which really casts its umbrella presence with regard to national security is that of the cyber domain. Technology could not have moved at such a rapid pace but for computerisation and the information space provided by the cyber medium. Data transfer in various forms has created the need for networks to allow access to users across the globe at a touch of their fingertips. Today, virtually everything, from shoe designing & manufacturing to bridge construction, airplane controls, power systems and businesses are dependent on vast networks interconnected through the electromagnetic spectrum. At the micro level of the ordinary citizen, the government has created access portals to banking and government organisations, through mobile phones. This huge dependency on the cyber medium and the transportability of information is a ‘ripe tomato’ for picking by undesirable forces. Cyber-attacks and cyber warfare have today taken on proportions far outweighing military engagements, primarily because most modern military hardware today is largely dependent on systems fed by and controlled through cyber networks.

The need for strong cyber security systems needs no emphasis. As a nuclear state and operating the fourth largest military in the world, India needs a Cyber Command. An authority which will not only handle military issues but will have civilian sleuths and professionally trained ‘hackers’ alongside to cover all domains and sectors, or provide the niche assistance that would be required. With very high dependency on networks, this organisation would be about the most important set-up in the country.

The multi-dimensional character of future security threats is likely to have physical and moral components. While border protection and localised wars would entail the physicality, it would permeate down to tackling terrorists, insurgents, embedded military fighters, proxy fighters and Naxals in our constant counter-insurgency battle. The national government will also continue the moral battle against separatists, activists, media disinformation and the like. We must remember, the line between conventional threats and sub-conventional threats is becoming narrower and the moral element is assisting in the merge. The threats will continue to look for vulnerabilities as they appear and strike when opportunity arises.

We need to consolidate our national power, identify and harness the key strategic areas of concern which can cripple the nation and ensure a strong blanket protection. The cyber domain clearly is the defining critical factor amongst all the vulnerabilities, with a capability to bring armies and nations to their knees. We have created some agencies at the national level to address the big issues (like the NDMA). We need to create more to oversee crises as they occur and manage them before they become disasters. The military has a system of ‘War Gaming’ all likely possibilities that may cause situations to go out of control, whether in battle or otherwise. War Gaming offers the players the opportunity to ‘plug gaps’ and formulate ‘contingency plans’. These ensure that if surprised for any reason, there is a tackle available to stem the tide. There is no gainsaying that the civil/government organisations placed in responsible positions to avert threats to the nation must adopt such methods. They will go a long way in securing the nation.

In the final analysis and to (lamely) fall back on Ray Cline’s formula for Perceived Power (read Comprehensive National Power), success can only be assured by the last bit of the formula—Strategic Purpose and Will to Pursue National Strategy. We need to state our Strategic Purpose through a National Security Strategy, a public document which clearly spells out the government ‘intent’. The people must be aware and assured that the government will follow the strategy it lays down to address any security threat to the nation. The populace must also be convinced to see such action when the opportunity presents itself. A National Security Strategy document provides a positive face to a government and its ‘Will to Pursue its stated Strategy’ lends the ultimate credibility to its leadership.

Author Brief Bio: An alumnus of NDA and DSSC, Air Marshal Sumit Mukerji, PVSM, SC, VSM, has served the IAF as a fighter pilot with distinction He has commanded three units, a MiG-29 Sqn, a MiG-25 SR Sqn and TACDE (considered the ‘Top Gun’ school of the IAF) and also served as the Air Attaché in Washington DC. He retired in 2011 as the AOC-in-C of Southern Air Command.

References: –

1. Warfare in Many Dimensions – Mad Scientist Laboratory – Exploring the Op Environment – USA
2. Op Environment 2021-30 (US Army)
3. National Resources – Wikipedia
4. Strategies for Enhancing India’s Comprehensive National Power – Brig Rahul Bhonsle (Retd) – VIF
5. The Sixth Dimension of War – Raghu Raman – The Wire
6. A National Security Strategy for a New Century – 1997

Abstract

Education is the key to everything. It can mould a person’s behaviour and with the right idea of the world he/she can then lead a sustainable life. Higher education is very important for innovation and economic development. MOOCs are one way in which education can be guaranteed for all and for those who are already privileged enough who can take education to the next level. The aim of this paper is to sum up how online education platforms like MOOCs with its e-content can contribute to Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4) of agenda 2030, because when education is taken care of, all the other SDGs like poverty, health, hunger, gender equality etc. are not anymore at a risk. Recently the pandemic has changed the whole idea of education. The paper also illustrates how MOOCs started off as free education to all and gradually moved on to being commercial and has affected the socio-economic balance in the time of digital divide. The paper concludes with implications on how the millennial generations can help each other with their education and how MOOCs can widen its participation by including learners from every section of the society.

Introduction

‘Education for All’ has been a vision of the UN since the 1990’s. It started with the Millennium Development Goals, which now stand superseded by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Until last year, the last big innovation that happened in education was the printing press and the textbooks, but with the pandemic the whole idea of education has changed and is evolving. Covid-19 has forced us to rethink the methods of teaching and learning. The only issue now is in terms of development of e-content and in terms of access to such content by students in the rural areas.

The drastic change in the education system today could not have been even imagined a few years back. Each student, from the primary to the graduate level, learns with their own electronic gadgets and teaching and learning is happening from different parts of the world. MOOCs had envisioned this in 2008. Before MOOCs, while we did have distant education where people did correspondent courses, but not everyone completed those courses. MOOCs now promise increased access to education.

During its initial years, MOOCs tried to bridge the gap and brought people together around common goals. The main aim was to include people who were traditionally excluded from higher education as this would lead to an increase in social inclusion. People would get training for more skilled jobs, wealth and prosperity. There were no limits to the number of people who could join a class.

However, during the second wave of MOOCs, there was a change from free to fee- paying access to get certificates for courses. This had deviated MOOCs from their aim to promote free education for all. Some examples are the major MOOC providers like Coursera, Udacity and edX. Coursera and Udacity offered to give verified certificates of completion for all those learners who paid a particular amount while edX began to establish partnership with universities to teach MOOCs in their for-fee classes.

Even though the second wave led to a slow growth of MOOCs, it was still considered important for students’ learning. In India, an initiative in the name of SWAYAM was launched by the Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD). SWAYAM is an acronym for “Study Webs of Active Learning for Young Aspiring Minds.” The main aim of SWAYAM is to provide free entry to web courses and cover all the advanced education, schools and skill sector courses. Promoting these MOOCs will help students get a wider knowledge on the subjects. As there are no boundaries to the classroom, students can interact with a larger community from different parts of the world. It can also remove the time and place barrier restrictions and bring equality in education.

The MOOC platform is also an important factor to achieve SDG 4. It can bridge the gap between the digital divide and help to provide education for all. When everybody is educated, there would be a change in the human society itself. The achievement of other SDGs is also facilitated with the help of growth in education. As said earlier, every online class has four quadrants through which they make teaching easier, known as the e-content. The SWAYAM portal has four quadrants of e-content called e-tutorial, e-content, assessment and discussion. When these are provided with minimal restriction to every student, there would be equity in education.

Most of the online platforms today have become popularly known for their content. The content provided by them makes it easier for the students to learn and execute things. MOOCs and other online study platforms have a four-quadrant approach to learning. These four quadrants help learners from every discipline be it science, math, arts or skill-based studies; all are equally benefited. The e-content includes classes with interactive sessions, 3D model explanation of working models for skill-based learning and many other benefits. All these lead to a large number of learners participating from around the globe.

Background

MOOCs have, through all these years, created a learner led environment. Learners can study from esteemed universities in any part of the world. Few factors that have led to the rise in use of MOOCs are as follows:

• Digital service at our fingertips.
• Data never sleeps: no particular time to access data.
• A data hungry generation: Always looking forward to improving themselves.
• Pandemic has made it even more important.
• Universities provide 20% credits for online courses.

When everything happens through digital services, they are compelled to provide the best resources to their students. In developing countries like India, it would be even more difficult to include everyone in online classes. There are students with no access to the internet and some students, even though they have network facilities, have no clear idea on how to use these online platforms. But MOOCs have their own advantages and disadvantages when it comes to e-content and e-learning.

MOOCs and its E-content

E-content will transform teaching and learning, as the future is going to be blended learning—that is both face-to-face and online learning. The courses that were provided face-to-face have to be now transformed to suit the new normal. It requires us to rethink the learning design. The four quadrants of MOOCs:

• Quadrant 1: e-Tutorials contain video, audio, animation, video demonstrations and most of the time these videos also include transcription.
• Quadrant 2: e-content which contains e-books, web resources, online educational resources in the form of links, articles and case studies etc.
• Quadrant 3: Assessment that has multiple choice questions, assignments, quizzes, problems and solutions etc.
• Quadrant 4: Discussion forum for raising doubts and clarifying them on a real time basis.

Including New Designs to Improve Teaching and Learning

Rethinking the Current Syllabus: This would be a very good opportunity to rethink the current syllabus and make it suitable for blended learning. It would be easy for the students if the syllabus is detailed and made comprehensive. Creating a syllabus quiz can also make learning easier and help the students understand the topic better, before moving on to the next one.

Organising the Content: It would be a great time saver if the content is organised on the basis on which they are to be taken. For example, a chapter in a subject can be divided on the basis of their topics and organised in google drive folders with a common link access. This makes it easier and time saving for the teachers and students to access the resources like pdf and eBooks while learning.

Orienting the Learner: This method would be particularly useful today as most of the students who do not have face to face contact with the teachers can have an orientation section where the subject is explained in detail to enable the student to better have a better grasp over what is being taught.

Moving beyond PowerPoint: More features like audio descriptions can be added to the power point presentations to make teaching more clear and test series can also be added at the end of every chapter.

Rethinking the grading strategies: Students can be graded on the basis of their critical thinking skills and their participation in the classes. Feedback can also be added because it would benefit both the students and teachers in improving the process of learning.

Barriers to E-learning and E-content

Language and communication barrier: MOOCs is a large platform and students get a lot of exposure while interacting with other students from around the world. However, learners with limited command of the common language would find it challenging to understand the instructions, which could lead to reduced participation in discussions. This can partially be offset if instructors limit the use of jargon words and if possible, use different dialects while taking classes.

Online classes tend to focus more on theory than practice: This has no proper solutions as the maximum that could be done is to get as visual as possible with the help of technology by using 3D animations etc.

E-learning requires strong self-motivation and time management skills: Building strong self-motivation and disciplinary skills is key to succeeding in an online learning environment. Additionally, face-to-face communication with professors can be substituted with online communication, and peer-to-peer activities could be promoted online, as in traditional classrooms.

Online learning is inaccessible to the computer illiterate population: Finding a solution to this problem is not an easy task. However, initiatives such as ‘Digital India’ show promise in improving computer literacy. In the era of technology, online classes are making a mark, but since India is a developing country, the knowledge and distribution of resources is uneven among the population. Therefore, more efforts have to be put to match up and maintaining the standard of education as online education is the next big thing in the near future.

These are some of the basic features that need more concentration as it will help MOOCs to provide equal education to all.

Analytical Discussion

The new MOOCs have to not only achieve SDG 4, but also deal with global challenges. The results for the latter have not been very encouraging and the pandemic has further hindered the effort. With a few pilot studies and new ideas, this study has tried to summarise how MOOCs can help to achieve each target of SDG-4. The reviews are summarised in subsequent paragraphs.

Basic Education to Children: Having access to primary education is a fundamental right of every citizen of our country. The literacy rate has improved during the past few years, but like in the case of the rich becoming richer and poor becoming poorer, people who are privileged benefit more from online learning. Also, the urban and rural divide and children from the conflict zones miss their primary education due to multiple reasons. This gap can be bridged by MOOCs by taking education to the next level and making it accessible for underprivileged people. Even in conflict zones, MOOCs can provide easy access to primary education and improved access to learning materials and resources.

Gender Equality and Social Inclusion: The primary objective of MOOCs is to provide education to those who lack access to learning. MOOCs can help in inclusive learning by giving women and girls improved access to education. MOOCs have the potential to democratise education by providing learners with access to high-quality and free online courses. In India, Indira Gandhi National Open University (IGNOU), has established special study centres for some identified groups (Women, minority community, physically challenged, rural community, residents of remote and isolated areas, scheduled castes, scheduled tribes jail inmates etc) which are outside the pale of formal education. The Study Centers are using successful MOOCs mediums to make education more inclusive. So, MOOCs tools ensure easy access to education for all, which in turn promotes inclusive education.

Youth Population and the Time Bank: Taking examples from countries like Switzerland where they have a ‘Time Bank’ scheme to look after the elderly by the younger population, the model can be adopted in high populated countries like India to help students in their education. The students with easy access to the internet and access to high-end education can, through NGO volunteers, teach students belonging to the weaker sections. This would be a great help to people with limited or nil access to learning resources. As Ann Frank once said, “Nobody becomes poor by giving”.

Scholarships: In line with the SDG 4 Education 2030 focus on equity, inclusion and quality, scholarships should be transparently targeted at young people from disadvantaged backgrounds. With tuition rates rising at an average of 3.5% every year, scholarships are one of the best ways to reduce these growing costs and scholarship search platforms exist to help students find the most relevant ones. Online platforms are the easiest way to search and apply scholarships worldwide. Though we still have some way to go in providing scholarships to the less privileged sections of society, these challenges can be overcome. Communicating with concerned professors, having information on scholarships, preparing proposals and related works are means which are being given much greater emphasis than hitherto fore, through extensive use of online platforms.

Teachers and Educators: ‘MOOCs have the potential to revolutionise the way we teach and how we learn’. Over the past few years, MOOCs have become a vital source of expansion and studying in education. Due to the opportunities created by MOOCs, teaching and learning can now happen at any time and in any place. The explosive growth of the World Wide Web (WWW) has made information technology a popular platform for providing e-services, MOOCs service (Richard & Haya, 2009; Fry, K., 2001). MOOCs could be an effective tool for transferring knowledge and it has a potential to overtake the traditional teaching method. Web-based training helps facilitate learners and instructors in an educational environment. Tao et al. (2006) really thought that this new learning environment was centred on electronic networks had found a way for undergraduates to have learning schedules that are more suitable for them as well as separate from other students (Tao, Y. H., Yeh, C. R., & Sun, S. I., 2006). With the development of computer and internet technologies, this technology has a higher interaction and collaboration level between instructors or lecturers and peers than the traditional environment for learning (Giddens, A., 2001). Hence, MOOCs systems might be able to deliver a broad array of solutions to enable learning and improve students’ performance. There are a number of advantages for using this technology and learning materials in the university classroom (Hassan, M. S., 2007): More active learning class, diversified teaching method, better student attention and realisation, effective time management for lectures, and visual stimulation. The major advantage of MOOCs lies in its flexibility and ability to cover distances. The curriculum can be repeated until it is understood by the students. Hence, full time and part time undergraduates can take part in their degree courses selected from any place or location, so students can gain multiple learning ways depending on their needs (Aggarwal, D., 2009). Above analysis clearly indicates that MOOCs are a handy way to attain every target of SDG 4 and eventually the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Cost: Depending more upon e-content means spending less on books. According to the analysis, more than 25% of the academic fee of a student is spent on buying textbooks and other materials. The lower costs and free enrolment are also making more students prefer online learning.

Challenges to attaining SDG 4 through MOOCs:

• Since tests for assessments in MOOCs cab be done with the use of proxy, it is very difficult to regulate bad activities like cheating.
• MOOCs depend on technology a lot. Therefore, equipment failure is an obstacle to implementing proper MOOCs.
• Cloud computing facilities are not familiar to each and every user.
• While MOOCs might look like a learning tool available to anyone, in reality, it’s not. Not all people have stable internet access and computers that are powerful enough to support online streaming.
• Since MOOCs are based on internet technology and it creates a virtual “class room” for the students; therefore, it depends on internet connection. Also, this technology requires students to have massive technical skills and internet connection with high bandwidth to download the materials from the courses and upload their tasks or work with e-system.
• Some might have all the necessary technologies but may still struggle to use it. For example, older students might find it hard to master all the newest tech gigs. This problem, however, can be solved by offering them proper tutorials.
• Being able to learn at a comfortable pace and organise one’s own learning is a disaster for some students. While some are good in self-organisation, others cannot do this without having a clear deadline on writing a term paper and the need to report their progress to the teacher. Some others can do so but still feel better working and learning around people because it motivates them more.
• The feedback is one of the biggest drivers of students’ progress. The students are able to improve only when they know their flaws and weak points. While online instructors do give feedback to students, they still might not have enough time to work with them properly, explaining every detail. This could lead to some students falling behind, having gaps in their knowledge, and not completing the course successfully enough.

Conclusion

The present academic year has seen a lot of changes from the traditional classroom. Every student and teacher can now study and learn from the comfort of their home through online education. This was unimaginable just a few years earlier. While it can be easy for the privileged section of the society but there is a different side to online education for people from a not so privileged background. To combat this problem, some measures can be taken in the conflict zones like:

• Improve the infrastructure, so that online courses can be developed for teacher education. This would lead to a significant change in higher level education.
• Assess the internet connectivity in the region and check if it is enough for taking online classes.
• Try and include online classes from the primary level as a part of their curriculum.
• Conduct a study on how we can better put into use the current education system and learning management system.

 

MOOCs have brought a revolution to the idea of education. Earlier most of the schools just had one huge hall for smart classroom and just a few minutes were given to study things outside their books, but the future seems to be different every school and college is going to now have a smart classroom with a system for every student and just one lecture hall for the face – to- face discussions. It would be complete if the classes for the differently abled were also added to MOOCs so that we could without any doubt call it “Massive Open Online Course”.

Author Brief Bio: Dr. Santhosh Mathew is Assistant Professor at Centre for South Asian Studies, Pondicherry Central University, India.

 

Reference

1. Aggarwal, D. (2009), Role of e-Learning in A Developing Country Like India. Bharati Vidyapeeth‘s Institute of Computer Applications and Management, New Delhi, India
2. Giddens (2001), A.:Sociology. 4th ed, Cambridge: Cambridge: Polity, Global Goals. (2015). ‘The Global Goals for Sustainable Development: Goal 4 Education’. Retrieved from http;//www..globalgoals.org/global-goals-education
3. Hassan, M. S. (2007), Critical success factors for e-learning acceptance, Elsevier Computers& Education, 49, pp. 396–413,
4. Richard & Haya (2009), Examining student decision to adopt web 2.0 technologies: theory and empirical tests. Journal of computing in higher education, 21(3), 183-198
5. Tao, Y. H., Yeh, C. R., & Sun, S. I. (2006), Improving training needs assessment processes via the Internet: system design and qualitative study. . Internet Research, 16 (4), pp. 427–49.
6. Lambert S R. (2018, November,26). Do MOOCs Contribute to Student Equity and Social Inclusion? A systematic review 2014-2018. [ Center for Research in Assesment and digital learning, Deakin University] Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2019.103693

Two years of Modi 2.0 should have been a joyous occasion. There was much to celebrate about, from a turning around of the economy after the havoc caused across the world by the Chinese SARS-CoV-2 virus, which caused the Covid 19 pandemic. After a year of sustained effort, the pandemic was contained, despite the numerous challenges that a country of India’s size and diversity faced. That, by itself, was a stupendous achievement.

The internal security situation across the country has also seen vast improvement, especially in the Union Territory of J&K and the affected states of Northeast India. In the areas impacted by Left Wing Extremism, the overall capacity of the Maoists to carry out targeted attacks against the security forces and the civil population has reduced, but as the recent ambush on CRPF personnel in early April in Chattisgarh’sBijapur district has shown, the Maoists retain the ability to carry out well coordinated attacks on specific targets of their choosing. Obviously, there is a requirement to improve tactical responses by operating troops, but more importantly, the need for good front line leadership is something which the CRPF desperately needs.

These two years also saw the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act and the Farm Laws, which have the potential to bring in another Green Revolution. That there was opposition to both these legislations was expected as certain vested interests were badly impacted. Another important legislation passed was making instant triple talaq a punishable offence. This will go a long way in providing gender equity to Muslim women in India. The focus on gender, education, health, development of infrastructure, etc is but a part of the vast progress made in many spheres in the last two years.

The second wave of the pandemic appears to have caught both the centre and the states by surprise. The situation on 1 March presented a rosy picture, with the number of cases having decreased to the lowest level. It was perhaps assumed that this trend would continue. However, from the very next day itself, we saw a small surge in cases. A one-days surge obviously is not something that excites suspicion, but when the trend did not reverse for a week, the bureaucrats responsible to monitor the Covid impact should have raised the red flag. This was not a Black Swan event which hit the nation with sudden ferocity. It was a Grey Rhino. The evidence of what could happen was available and should have been foreseen by the secretaries working in the health department in the States and in the Centre and they should have advised their Ministers accordingly.

Now, a massive effort is required by the nation as a whole to rid ourselves of this scourge. Let us plan for a year without election rallies, religious festivals, bandhs and dharnas, and private gatherings which are larger than 50 people. These gathering too should be carried out with all protocols in place. Obviously, we as a people must unite to win this battle. Under the leadership of the Prime Minister, this is a battle that we will win.

Assessor: One who assesses; Assessee: One who is assessed; Assessed: That which is assessed

Assessment is the key to making right choices. Quantitative assessments are commonplace but in various facets of economic activity, the State has to make qualitative choices. This will be critical to ensure that the stroll to US$ 5 trillion is converted into a sprint.

Indian establishment for seventy long years, owing to various reasons, colonised mindset not being the least, learned to count its fingers after every handshake—thanks to the British colonisers who implanted in us the seed of suspicion of everything & everyone. It is undeniable that we do not cover ourselves in glory, when it comes to non-discriminatory & merit-seeking credentials. Nonetheless, our self-subjugation evoked two socio-cultural outcomes, mentioned ahead. First, the need to behaviourally emboss honesty, neutrality & objectivity; second, quantification of everything for comparison. Ensuant to aforementioned, from primary school examinations all the way to choosing whom to provide a multibillion State contract, all & sundry get quantified.

For mass assessment, quantification probably is unavoidable (say for University entrance exams, where a million and a half Indian students appear simultaneously). No prejudice is meant towards quantification; it is, in most cases, the easiest way to compare. But not everything can be quantified. Qualitative assessment sometimes is unavoidable. Forcibly quantifying qualitative indicators leads to compromised consequences. My observation has been that when the assessment (choice) is to be made of the actions of the past, quantification is adequate. But the moment an assessment is to be made of the future, quantification is counter-productive. Assessments of the future can be made adequately, when done comprehensively, including, but not limited to qualitative and quantitative methods.

Is assessment well understood?

At the outset, it has to be conceded that irrespective of qualitative, quantitative or any other mode of assessment, in case the assessor is prejudiced or taken care off, or if the assessee is manipulative; most assessments, quantitative or qualitative can be short-circuited. Therefore, one in every thousand crooks in every society have to be excluded from the scope of this article-proposal. No sensible State builds systems to address crooks & consequently concede that a majority of the addressable population are crooks.

In the book titled “Invention of Description” (ISBN: 979-8636521334) there is an interesting comprehension of Assessment. Assessment, it is claimed, requires adjudgment of the performance of the input/output (resource) vis-a-vis a standard or other comparable^[i] to the subject/object of assessment in four frameworks – (i) Necessary Attributes Framework; (ii) Sufficiency Attributes Framework; (iii) Emotional Connect Framework; (iv) Aesthetic Attributes Framework. All these frameworks jointly are DNSEA (Description, Necessary Attributes, Sufficiency Attributes, Emotional Connect & Aesthetic Value).

Necessary attributes’ framework

Necessary Attributes’ Framework is the carrier of objectivity. In this framework, the fitness & riskiness of the assessee are to be established. To establish the ‘fitness’ the assessor has to very clearly establish the purpose. Without clear establishment of the purpose the very basis of assessment goes for a toss. Especially in scenarios where multiple people are assessing, lack of expressly stated purpose, invariably leads to every assessor assuming his own purpose, while the vision that kindled the need to undertake an assessment (especially in case of the State) is lost altogether.

Lack of clarity in stating the purpose concomitantly, leads to confusion among the assessees, as they fail to comprehend what should they pay most heed to. Therefore, the most rudimentary & crucial parameter for assessment is ‘fitness for purpose’. It is equally crucial to adjudge the fitness of the assessed vis-a-vis time, place & environs in which execution is anticipated.

The L1 Paradigm

Besides fitness for purpose, time, place and ambience; fitness of cost of execution that the assessee proposes is the last & important necessary attribute of this framework. It is very important not to make final assessments based merely on the lowest cost. Imagine getting to attend a three hour show of Dhinchak Pooja (“Dilon Ka Shooter, hai mera scooter…”) because she quoted 0.01% lower price to present a concert vis-a-vis Shankar Mahadevan. This is the story of competitive/comparative quantitative assessment in which L1 (lowest quote) wins the competition. Once prices are quoted, depending on the case, a minimum (where State expects a subsequent revenue) or maximum (where State undertakes to participate/subsidise/bear the cost) limit, should be established (a sensible mechanism could be worked to establish this cost) after comparing proposals from all the assessees. After establishing & publicly declaring the cost constraint (max. or min.), all contenders should be offered to recast & re-submit their proposals (whosoever desires to) within the established cost constraints and be given a chance to compete with each other qualitatively. Yes, the State would not get literally the lowest price. But a State should not aim for the lowest price, it should focus on procuring within its budget (the established cost constraint), the solution that is of highest quality. This is the best way to promote meritocracy & innovation and give innovative companies a chance to showcase their worth.

Thus ‘cost-constraint’ is converted into a median or even lowest price-discovery (budget discovery) process, while decision-making is ‘qualitative’. The State operates in a reverse manner, when it wants qualitative bidders, it often creates a qualitative barrier (technical in nature), customised to filter-out lesser mortals. And then lets the chosen few compete on financial indicators. This rules out those from outside the inner club of few companies.

The ‘Swiss challenge’ is a shade better, as it let’s customisation of the initial specifications of the competition by the assessor, such that there is at least one bidder available, nevertheless. But it is not ideal as the competition is not qualitative. The specifications are frozen ab initio.

Sufficiency attributes’ framework

Sufficiency Attributes’ Framework is the determinant of life of that which is proposed as a resource or that of the assessed, with at least one objective tolerance constraint to each of the specifications. All specifications are categorised into four classes: quantitative, qualitative, geo-ambient and ownership. Geo-ambient means the geographical location of the assessed along with the environs in which the assessed is located. ‘Ownership, simply said, means the user in whose possession/ownership the assessed resource is expected to be in future or who all will be affected by the resource’s coming into existence.

Sufficiency framework delivers life to assessment & ensures that the assessors are running with their eyes & faces looking ahead, instead of backwards. Those assessors look backwards, who lack vision & fail to take calls based on what is expected in future. They base their decision-making on the statistical past (at best), their past (at worst). In assessment of high technology areas, this is lethal to say the least. Because the best decisions taken looking at the past are likely to be worse than the worst decisions taken looking at the future.

Through assessment of sufficiency the assessor should assess the quantitative, qualitative, geo-ambient (location and environs) and  ownership (with whom is the assessed resource will rest in future or be used or consumed or all who will be affected) specifications & their tolerances within which the assessed resource will be fruitful.

This parameter forces the assessor & the assessee alike to work on the resourcefulness, hence, reliability and life of the assessed, thus forging quality of assessment & decision-making. This is critical in case of assessment of high technology ventures like semiconductor plant proposals, or advanced material manufacturing proposals. Assessing, investing & supporting high technology ventures by State (Government) can be best compared to skeet shooting. An expert gunman aims a few metres ahead (of the skeets position) while pulling the trigger to intersect the skeet with his bullet.

Choosing to support complex material science technologies & teams that will make cutting edge high technology enterprise in India is a heavy burden, and immensely critical for our nation building. We need to make the investment count. We will be betting the tax charged on a cup of Chai consumed by a labourer. A choice made by a mediocre assessment will only add one more mediocre organisational existence at best or a long, dragged unwanted life at worst.

Sufficiency Attributes’ Framework is smartly done. It is subjective towards achievement of highest specifications (the assessee is free to deliver the best specifications) & objective to the need of minimum specifications, in concurrence with the established tolerances.

Emotional connect & aesthetic value framework

Emotional Connect Framework has two classes: the absolute assessment & the comparative assessment, and both are completely subjective. Under this framework the assessor just expresses his likeness of the assessed, absolutely, on its own merit, and a comparative ranking when compared to other options or previous experience of assessed objects/resources in the same category, without providing any reasons (emotional connect is not subject to reasoning. Reasoning is crucial only in necessary & sufficiency attributes).

The emotional connect (likeness) of the assessors towards the assessed is non-trivial, but it is neither necessary, nor sufficient. It is the subjective view of the assessor about the assessed. Its importance is only in the context of the next Framework which is the Aesthetic Framework and which is cast from statistics accumulated from emotional-connect-assessment of all the assessors. When an overwhelming majority likes & feels emotional connection to something, it is aesthetic.

The DNSEA assessment matrix is strictly sequential & a ranking filter. Strictly sequential means, first assess the safety (risk & mitigation) elements of that which is proposed to be assessed. Then the fitness for purpose, time, geo-ambience & cost should be assessed. This should be followed by sufficiency attributes’ framework assessment to establish the reliability and resourceful life of the assessed. Follow this with emotional connect (first absolute & then comparative) assessment and deduce the aesthetic value. Necessary framework assessment is only a go, no-go filter. Sufficiency framework assessment is a ranking filter as not only is the assessed categorised as go, no-go but is also scored/ranked. Thus, comparable variants, when they come for aesthetic value assessment, they are filtered through assessment of necessary attributes and filtered & ranked through assessment of sufficiency attributes. Thereafter, the competing variants are subject to assessment of emotional connect and aesthetic value. There are fair chances that the highest scorer on sufficiency might not be the most aesthetic. Decisions should be made on the consumption patterns of the assessed. In case the assessed resource is created for sensual consumption (olfactory, visual, auditory, taste, touch), it should neglect the ranking in sufficiency & the choice should be made on basis of best aesthetic value, while in other cases, aesthetic value could be scored to determine the weightage of sufficiency attributes and aesthetic value.^[ii]

The Evaluation Committee

Not by malafide intent, but owing to certain unavoidable circumstances, it is not infrequent to discover a compromised choice of assessors in Government evaluation committees. The chosen assessors are the ones, who could be competitively threatened by the assessee in future. Indeed, in such cases even if they have to choose one from among many assessees, they tend to choose the one, who has least chances of success. It is understandable that the Government is always most comfortable getting the chiefs of Govt. departments & Govt. companies from the same sector, with similar profiles, to be ideal for ‘professional’ assessment as the Govt. officials are expected to cater to the greater public good. Factually, such a view is utopian. Government is composed of people, who usually think no different from how the society, at large, does. They cater to their interests & the interests of their small cabals within the Government. It is undeniable that the chiefs of existing companies & departments doing similar activities are expected to have knowledge of the field, but the cost for this expertise of the knowledgeable assessor is smart mangling of the one, who is most likely to topple the cabal’s gravy boat.

There are innumerable subtle ways of conveying the ‘negative sentiment’ to other members which might seem really very innocent, like calling a serious forward-looking proposal as a ‘wish list’. Have heard from entrepreneurs use of many other adjectives that neither are subtle nor seem to be intellectual rubs. Throttle of imminent threat is one of the causes for compromised quality committees, egos & lack of vision (shooting a skeet) are the other common ones. It also merits mention, that sectors in which Govt. departments & companies have performed excellently, are seldom needed to be canvassed for investment and hence, assessments. ISRO, Atomic Energy, Oil & Gas are such examples in India. On the contrary, assessments are done in those sectors, where the incumbents have underperformed. And these very under-performers are then deputed as evaluation committee members to assess the companies that will threaten their very existence in future. The quality of assessment is predetermined!

Ideally, capable professionals working in the Government sector should be the ones, who set the objective, minimal specifications for the project. Therefore, it is very important to have an evaluation committee that is high calibre. For assessing forward looking, futuristic proposals in high technology, the assessors have to be of high quality – ideally, globally best minds. Indeed, getting high calibre academic and industry minds known for their integrity & futuristic approach globally, will ensure that mediocrity is eliminated from the process of assessment altogether and there is nothing unpatriotic in it. On the contrary the world gets a signal that when it comes to picking brains, we will approach the best.

Secondly, I observed carefully, that in a committee of five, no more than one would come prepared after a thorough read of the proposal & would ask informed questions. Indeed, the assessment of evaluation committees is dependent on three types of people – either the member-secretary, who informs in advance of the ‘good’ assesses; or the one prejudiced, malignant or threatened by the possible rise of a new star (by excluding the most likely to succeed) or that one single member, who came prepared after thoroughly reading the proposal. Best evaluations come from committees where the ones who come prepared after in depth study, rule the roost. The worst decisions come from committees in which the threatened takes charge by virtue of his position of lung power. All the aforementioned issues in this paragraph can be beautifully resolved without any investment. The Govt. should procure from NIC an electronic submission followed by automated anonymous  dispatch of the proposals being assessed to machine-chosen assessors from within a categorisedbank of assessors, each of whom has to strictly undertake not to reveal his identity or the fact that he is evaluating the proposal.

Views should be sought individually from each assessor & an anonymous query-answer window should be opened between each assessee and each assessor separately (with strict prohibition of disclosing names and contact details of either in the one-to-one chat forum). This will ensure that each assessor has applied his mind (because he can no more rely on the informed decision of another member of the Evaluation Committee) while this will also showcase the quality of the assessor & enable rating each of them systematically (automatically by the system), ensuring that Govt. does not repeat-hire a highly-placed, low-calibre assessor. Such an electronic remote process can enable excellent assessment of the necessary and sufficient frameworks. This will snatch away the possibility for the assessor to come into an evaluation committee meeting, have tea & snacks, hear others, gel his view to the majority & leave with a visit fee. This remote incognito (query-comment) assessment can be used to filter+rank those proposals on sufficiency attributes which have passed the go, no-go test of the necessary framework.

Thereafter, for the emotional connect & aesthetics framework, a committee meeting can be convened with in-person interviews of the assesses & demonstrations, if applicable. Such a committee meeting will be fruitful, as the assessee will be best-prepared after having been well-acquainted with the issues & concerns highlighted by the assessors. They will already be ranked and will know the targets they need to set to excel on emotional connect. Indeed, it would also be possible to have a different set of assessors for emotional connect and aesthetics to ensure that the evaluation is done by the best minds of the field.

It could always be left to the terms of reference to decide what importance they desire to advance to emotional connect & aesthetic value (statistical outcome of the emotional connect). The aforementioned electronic, remote, incognito necessary & sufficient attributes’ assessment followed by an in-person aesthetic value assessment will ensure assessment is deep, thorough, with independent views of the assessors without grease of references, recommendations, favouritism& egotistical eruptions. Human consciousness is composed of human emotions.^[iii]Therefore, many times emotional quotient overtakes, & evaluation committees operate in a reverse matrix. The smells, looks, language, style, pheromones & other elements of emotional framework overshadow the necessary & sufficiency framework and decisions taken turn out to be successful only by serendipity, if at all. Sufficiency attributes (the constraints & life of resourcefulness of that which is assessed) are not even jerked mentally.

An incident quoted by a young entrepreneur who appeared before a technology evaluation committee exhibits the bad luck he encountered. After sensibly answering a few questions, a senior assessor asked him another question. In a slip of tongue, he added the last utterly unneeded word to his positive response, which went as follows, “yes sir, it is so. Obviously.” No later than the emergence of the word ‘obviously’ from between his upper lip & lower teeth and striking of the drums of the assessor’s weedy ears with the sound wave of the said word; he almost jumped at the entrepreneur with rage, counter-questioning – am I so foolish that I do not know something that is so ‘obvious’? Good heavens! The assessed  realised he had kicked the hornet’s nest! Thereafter, the assessor kept on countering every proposition of this entrepreneur till the other members postponed the decision to the next meeting, which occurred nine months later through which his project was cleared. ‘Obviously’ cost him 9 months.

The Government, to enable a quantum leap in its processes should avoid all the aforementioned. Take evaluation of serious technology proposals electronic, remote & incognito (the assessees& assessors are not unacquainted). Hire the best global experts known for their integrity. Use the aforementioned DNSEA mechanism for assessment of proposals.

And what about that which is free?

Online platforms have evolved a new paradigm for Governments. They are free and sometimes they need to be chosen by the State and choice of Government endorsement or use would lead to an impact on the subscribership or revenue of the platform indirectly. While in the existing quantitative evaluation it is just not possible, as all the proposals might come free of cost. In the proposed qualitative electronic, remote & incognito assessment it really matters not. Government can evaluate the products & technology & then choose not one but multiple platforms that pass the cut off.

Let the games begin!

Race to 5 trillion US$ finish line! Let the best win!

Author Brief Bio: Deepak Loomba is Chairman of De Core Nanosemiconductors Limited, Gandhinagar, Gujarat. He owns the only Private Company in the history of independent India, and the only one in entire South Asia which established a compound semiconductor plant with a material growth facility.

^[i] Since the process of assessment embodies comparison, categorisation is a prelude to assessment. It is pertinent to first ensure that those compared belong to the same category, else the comparison will not be an apple to apple comparison.

^[ii] The State (Top Government functionaries) while setting evaluation committees & bodies in India have the best intentions in their minds. But the final result fails the primary motivation that ignited the process of evaluation, very often. I am in no way intending to cast a shadow of doubt on all experts and committees. I am sure there are many which have presented excellent assessments. But there is a systemic slack in the process.

^[iii] See Awareness & Consciousness – Discovery, Distinction & Evolution ISBN: 1692201220 or check the youtube video of Dr. Mark Solms.

The hall mark of Modi 2.0, Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan (ABA), is an unprecedented paradigm shift in the history of Indian economics post-independence. It has not only turned a crisis into an opportunity for professionals and entrepreneurs with its unique approach towards a financial problem emanating from an unprecedented event ever in history but also awakened India to its inherent inner strength and inward intuitive capacities based on Indian systems of knowledge and thought.

The raging C-19 pandemic, resulted in a deep crisis where mankind was pushed to its edges on all fronts—health, education, vocation and aspirations. Taking a unique, yet Bhārtiya (Indian) rooted approach for the growth of business and trade, backed by a strong domestic input—human effort and material utilisation, the economy has bounced back and seems to be on upward climb now, as per the most recent RBI projections.

Through ABA, Modi 2.0 has not only brought out an economic package based on swadeshi economics but a new economic philosophy that, apart from mind-set shift, also provides us with a holistic ‘arthanīti’ or economic management. It bears significant similarities to the Gandhian economic model, left largely neglected after Independence. Gandhian economic thought was based on the pillars of swaraj and swadeshi and was itself an outcome of Gandhi’s extensive and in depth understanding of classical Indian literature.

ABA has succeeded in projecting and bringing out to the world an alternative humane economics (entrenched in the Indian mind for thousands of years), ensuring dignified human expression of moral character and personal ingenuity. ABA is not just a policy but a constructive programme aimed towards human empowerment and development through the human power entrenched within our civilisation over many millennia.

Ample evidence illustrates the uncanny similarity and inspiration of the ABA from the terra firma of Gandhian principles of self-reliance (swadeshi) and complete independence (non-dependence: swaraj) in thought, praxis and lifestyle. Gandhi was opposed to the centralised economy built on Nehru- Mahalanobis model of building behemoths and working single-mindedly on the aim of import substitution.

ĀtmanirbharBhāratAbhiyān and Gandhi’s Constructive Programme

Lockdown affected lives, livelihoods and standards of living adversely—both economic and non-economic, of all individuals. On 12 May 2020, the Prime Minister first talked about building an ĀtmanirbharBhārat^[i]. The call was to the masses to collect themselves, assert their human power, sweat for bread but purely on moral grounds. Modi’s words were not about policy or politics but collective action, much like Gandhi had done in a bid to make each and every Indian self-respecting, self-sufficient and self-reliant in order to seek true independence of mind, body and soul.

In his independence speech on 15 August2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi invoked Subramania Bharti’s maxim for action, quoting him: ‘India will show the way forward to the entire world to break free from every bondage.’^[ii] Many of his critics wrote a scathing attack of the ABA, a philosophy clearly spelt out by Modi on 12 May 2020 on All India Radio’s ‘Mann ki Baat’^[iii]. Gandhi, too, faced a similar criticism on his call for collective economic action being accused of being utopian and unrealistic^[iv].

Like Gandhi, Modi, too remained resilient, probably following in the footsteps of the Father of the Nation, with focus on a larger moral goal to surmount the indomitable crisis at hand. Gandhi was of the view that any paradigm shift requires a strong moral force involving all individuals and an Indian way of doing things. ABA, too, is based on the belief that its success lies in mass moral development and spiritual force; a calling that India has taken well to as suggested by statistics on rising production, consumption and unprecedented achievements in research and development.

Ātamanirbharta is akin to poorna swaraj. Modi stated that self-reliance or atmanirbharta must ensure justice for poor, equal opportunity for all, the lower and middle classes should not face any obstacle to their growth, government should not come in their way as well as of social systems such that their dreams are not curbed in anyway^[v]. This resonates with Gandhi’s view of minimum governance and maximum self-governance with government acting as a facilitator for economic growth and human welfare. The considerations of both ABA and Gandhian economics are derived from the principle that seeks to enable every person in a manner that the person can fully develop all faculties and thereby personality in a spirit of true swaraj^[vi].

For both of them, the success of anyabhiyān, requires training on the back of moral and spiritual self-discipline^[vii]. A strong self-reliant India will then (and has) maintain a steady pace of growth and enjoy the good will of the world^[viii]. Modi states that big aims are important even if we don’t hit the bull’s eye^[ix]. Aims should be big, targets far sighted and decision making fast. Vague targets and weak spirits are a mark of a stagnating society.

The five pillars of ABA are economy, infrastructure, information technology-based systems, vibrant demography and demand. Interestingly, all find enumeration in some form in Gandhi’s Constructive Programme. The objective is to make India unconditionally dependent on local vendors by building an active base of supplies from needles to buttons to generators to chemical compounds.

The case in point is the massive 20 lakh crore package, equivalent to 10 per cent of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) launched with the objective of making Indian economy truly swadeshi^[x]. Gandhian village economy, too, was designed to drift from global to local and make India dependent on local supply chains with the hinterland supporting the needs of the main cities^[xi]. In fact, much in line with this, the government has decided to give preference to those commercial contracts that source inputs from local vendors. From boosting fisheries and building farm gate infrastructure, to cluster-based approach for mangoes, kesar or saffron, bamboo, chilli and tapioca, the idea is to build a swadeshi backbone for local sourcing to meet the demands of 130 crore people. While government hand-holding was not something Gandhi envisaged, we must remember that Modi 2.0 is a paradigm shift but not working on a clean slate, for which Gandhi’s Constructive Programme was written.

Modi 2.0, with its path breaking human development plan, brings within its ambit the notions of self-sufficiency, non-violence and truth (swadeshi, satya and ahimsa). The socio-economic development programme means to find all the necessaries of life in one’s own mother land while giving impetus to private or individual co-operation. It does not shun foreign co-operation but implies significant reversal of external dependence of goods. Business are being opened up and investments attracted with the caveat of ‘Make in India’^[xii]. To promote ethical choices, Modi calls for the mantra of ‘local’ under the ABA. In times of crisis, it is the local that has fulfilled our demand and saved the nation from great crises^[xiii].

ABA has done exactly that by weaving in migrants, the village industries, local producers, textile manufacturers, the potters, the toy makers and the craftsmen^[xiv]. This Gandhian decentralised economy, which involves the true Indian spirit on ground is a cornerstone of the ABA. It focuses on participation of tier 2 and 3 towns with hundred percent backward linkage from the village as a support system^[xv]. Modi 2.0 revives the Indian ethos with a new fervour largely absent in our political history since independence. Interestingly, ABA too, focuses on decentralisation of industry flooding start up enterprises in tier 2 and 3 towns, contrary to the Nehru-Mahalanobis model that was forced upon independent India. While we talk of towns, we must be mindful that some of the major villages of the nation in Gandhi’s times have now collectively grown to become such towns on account of demographic growth and connectivity—both physical and digital.

Historically, the farmer has not been able to decide the price of what he produces. Its price is calculated on the basis of the material investment, completely obliterating the sweat equity—empty nights spent guarding the crop, waiting for crops to grow without any other form employment etc. This was a major complaint that Gandhi had against the evil of demand and supply price determination in agriculture. It is backed by the logic that money drives away land from food to commercial crops like tobacco^[xvi].

ABA is the first attempt to restore the dignity of the farmer by accounting for the abstract efforts that going into the entire process of growing food. As enablement and in a bid to prevent exploitation of farmers the minimum support price (MSP) has been raised to one and a half times of the investment made by the farmer in phase 3 of ABA^[xvii]. The price given to him is no longer mapped to the physical monetary investment but on the human effort as well.

ABA attempts to give impetus to technology driven systems. This was one of the major reasons that Gandhi had strongly criticised the use of technology especially the railways by the British^[xviii]. Thus, to many, these may look departures on the two sides. However, Gandhi’s reason was not to become slaves of technology but to use it to enhance human dignity and effort. Good or evil lies in the intention, not in the means alone. Thus, with a clear goal setting, ABA is not a major departure from the Gandhian ethical framework.

Artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics are aimed to penetrate those regions where human to human contact is not possible or in dealing with minutiae where human skill is limited^[xix]. Thus, ABA focuses on technology driven and not technology dependent systems. Apart from aiming at economic efficiency this also aims at reducing the harm to environment per unit of income produced rather than producing more income per unit of pollution, as envisaged by Gandhi^[xx].

It has brought a much needed change in approach for the growth and efficiency of the health sector in the wake of the COVID 19 crisis^[xxi]. To be self-reliant in this sector given the global crisis we stand amidst, India’s PPE (personal protective equipment) manufacturers rose from zero in march to about 300 by August 2020. India today is the largest manufacturer for the C-19 vaccine. ABA programmes are working with enhanced government spending for community development and engagement in village works, grass root development through construction of highways, houses, toilets and record food production^[xxii]. It commands a change in taste of the people of India towards building brand India, akin to Gandhi’s Constructive Programme^[xxiii].

Gandhi’s extensive writings in ‘Young India,’ a weekly journal published between 1919-1931, aimed to mobilise youth for a sustainable economy^[xxiv]. Similarly, the ABA intends to capitalise on the demography of the country where 50 per cent of the population is below the age of 25 years and the average age of the Indian population is 29 years^[xxv]. For Gandhi, supply and demand economics was one of the major forms of evil^[xxvi]. He envisaged an economic order where people are motivated by meeting needs and not creating an excess of supply or suppressing supply in order to push up profits and prices. This is what the ABA intends through local sourcing and strengthening the economy till the grassroots.

The ABA also talks of creating a self-sustaining economy where India will witness a demand of goods based on the strength of utilising the full capacity of the internal supply chain^[xxvii]. Supply will not cater to profit or price but will be based on genuine demand.  Modi 2.0 is creating a strong supply system built on labour and Indian means of transfer and exchange^[xxviii]. All countries have a right to protect their trade. ABA aims to boost growth and trade within the motherland through technology transfer and seeking investment^[xxix]. Gandhi, was of the view that the charge of protectionism in trade was not a negative one^[xxx]. This is where ABA takes a leap beyond Gandhi. Even as we abide by swadeshi economics, we continue to meet obligations under the World Trade Organisation’s (WTO) agreement.

Centralisation producesfinancial slaves for Gandhi^[xxxi]. Higher the so-called standard of living based on a material driven economic index, the tighter is the noose around the neck. In order to solve moral, spiritual and social problems, independent economic activity must be encouraged and method put in place for economic practice, according to the Gandhian model. This is exactly the aim of the ABA along with a keen eye on economic parameters. ABA is a mass movement which has become the soul force of 125 crore efforts. Current government reforms involving relinquishing control in some major sectors will crowd in private investments and increase people partnership in businesses.

Conclusion

With the motto ‘shramevajayate,’ ABA is providing last mile delivery, which is reflected in economic parameters on the back of growing domestic demand and spending being the principle for action. The Sanskrit phrase means ‘hard work alone wins’ and is a new age version of the dictum given by Gandhi ‘satyamevajayate’ or truth alone wins, for hard work is born out of earnestness.

Modi 2.0 talks of ‘sabkasaath, sabkavikas’ for the first time in 75 years of independence^[xxxii]. It aims not only at inclusive development but sowing the seeds of self-dependence at the very grass roots rather than propping up already existing large scale centralised manufacturing and services. Modi 2.0 endorses this Gandhian view when he states that economic development is important but human dignity is supreme. ABA captures the debate which is shifting from economy centric globalisation to human centric globalisation^[xxxiii]. The growth is beyond GDP numbers yet inclusive of it because it is human development (holistic) and not just economic development (a shift that is being sought by modern economists).

With ABA, Modi 2.0 sets the ground rule that human dignity stands supreme over economic development^[xxxiv]. Shunning myopic vision, Modi 2.0 launched the mantra of co-operation^[xxxv]. It aims to develop 125 crore active citizens from over 6 lakh villages into nation builders, similar to the Gandhian ethical economic model^[xxxvi]. ABA brings to the fore a knowledge-based economy to a civilisation that has always been knowledge driven. According to Gandhi, the focus should be on quality in the method of production which is dictated by complete knowledge of the means and sources of production^[xxxvii].

Almost all super economic powers have high growth rates and higher production levels but they do not enjoy the tag of civilisational progress that is based on the moral and spiritual development of people which has been inherent in the Indian mind in thought, action and spirit right from an auto-rickshaw driver to a company CEO (chief executive officer). ‘Sabka saath, saathvikas’ is a philosophy in action on ground. Industry produces for exchange but a mother for home and that is the business ethics engendered in the ABA. Gandhi was of the view that ethical considerations are not disturbing to the economic or business apparatus of a society^[xxxviii]. According to him, the notions of ‘pure,’‘good,’‘right,’ have universal connotations and maintain the same import whether we talk of good economics or good ethics. In other words, the two are equivalent.

Modi 2.0 effectively bats on the same ideological pitch reinforcing that good economics is ethics. It endorses and propagates the view that swadeshi movement is as workable as any other ever envisaged by human beings based on ‘an indomitable will of a band of earnest workers’^[xxxix]. Modi 2.0 is a moral economic approach and a human public policy structure for modern times with an attempt to remodel and work on humanitarian presumptions and human centric development rather than an economics of numbers alone.

Ethically good practices do not involve continuing losses or short-term gains. If they are ethical in nature, both means and ends have to aim at welfare and growth^[xl]. The mantra is to spread out and reach grass roots for Modi 2.0. It has a philosophy that growth whether moral, physical, material, spiritual or otherwise must be an outcome of ‘good’ economics. ABA weaves in practical ethics or relative dharma. It is a shift towards holistic humane goals of swadeshi and self-sufficiency. Like Gandhi, here too, the individual is the unit for action rather than groups and classes^[xli].

Modi 2.0 has launched a philosophical leap in public policy. Much like Gandhi, self-belief and inner strength is the mark for the quest for self-dignity and self –reliance^[xlii]. It is a change in mind set for a billion of us, not an incremental move.

Modi 2.0 has launched a festival of self-reliance through the ABA^[xliii]. ‘Esha Panthah’ – this is the path for a self-sufficient India. Thus, it celebrates Gandhi’s 150^th year, both in spirit and action in a unique way.

Author Brief Bio: Gunjan Pradhan Sinha is an academician, journalist and independent researcher. She is the author of the book Dharma in Governance and has published over 2000 articles as a columnist in leading Indian dailies such as The Indian Express, The Economic Times and The Financial Express. In the initial part of her career, she plunged into a career of journalism writing extensively on public policy issues spanning over 8 years. She taught Philosophy at St. Stephen’s College for over 8 years from where she graduated as well. She also taught at Lady Shri Ram College, Miranda House and Jindal Global University. Currently, she teaches business ethics at Bhavan’s Usha Lakshmi institute of management.

^[i] Modi, Narendra. May 12, 2020 Speech. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/full-text-pm-modis-address-to-nation-on-covid-19/articleshow/75702461.cms

^[ii] Modi’s Independence Day Speech, https://www.narendramodi.in/text-of-prime-minister-shri-narendra-modi-s-address-to-the-nation-from-the-ramparts-of-the-red-fort-on-the-74th-independence-day-august-15-2020-551013 (New Delhi: August 15, 2020)

^[iii] Modi, Narendra. May 12, 2020 Speech. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/full-text-pm-modis-address-to-nation-on-covid-19/articleshow/75702461.cms

^[iv] Gandhi, Mohandas Karamchand. Constructive Programme,Navajivan Trust Revised 1945, Ahmedabad: 2010.

^[v] Modi’s Independence Day Speech, https://www.narendramodi.in/text-of-prime-minister-shri-narendra-modi-s-address-to-the-nation-from-the-ramparts-of-the-red-fort-on-the-74th-independence-day-august-15-2020-551013 (New Delhi: August 15, 2020)

^[vi] Kumarappa, J C. Motives and Indian Economy, Chapter 1. Gandhian Economic Thought. Sarva Seva Sangh Prakashan. Rajghat, Varanasi: 1951. pp 15-16.  www.mkgandhi.org accessed September 10, 2020.

^[vii] Gandhi, Mohandas Karamchand. Constructive Programme, Navajivan Trust Revised 1945, Ahmedabad: 2010.pp3-5.

^[viii] Modi’s Independence Day Speech, https://www.narendramodi.in/text-of-prime-minister-shri-narendra-modi-s-address-to-the-nation-from-the-ramparts-of-the-red-fort-on-the-74th-independence-day-august-15-2020-551013 (New Delhi: August 15, 2020)

^[ix] Ibid.

^[x] Modi, Narendra. May 12, 2020 Speech source- https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/full-text-pm-modis-address-to-nation-on-covid-19/articleshow/75702461.cms

^[xi] Gandhi, M K. Khadi. Constructive Programme. Navajivan Trust Revised 1945, Ahmedabad: 2010.pp 10.

^[xii] Modi, Narendra. May 12, 2020 Speech. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/full-text-pm-modis-address-to-nation-on-covid-19/articleshow/75702461.cms

^[xiii] Modi, Narendra. May 12, 2020 Speech. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/full-text-pm-modis-address-to-nation-on-covid-19/articleshow/75702461.cms

^[xiv] Self-Reliant India Movement. Ministry of Finance. Government of India. Phase I. file:///C:/Users/Gunjan/Desktop/Business%20Ethics/Aatmanirbhay%20phase%201.pdf

^[xv] Self-Reliant India Movement. Ministry of Finance. Government of India. Phase I. file:///C:/Users/Gunjan/Desktop/Business%20Ethics/Aatmanirbhay%20phase%201.pdf

^[xvi] Kumarappa, J C. Agro Village Industries, Chapter 3. Gandhian Economic Thought, Sarva Seva Sangh Prakashan. Rajghat, Varanasi: 1951. Pp14  www.mkgandhi.org accessed September 10, 2020.

^[xvii] Ministry of Finance https://web.archive.org/web/20200612121248/https://cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.in/s3850af92f8d9903e7a4e0559a98ecc857/uploads/2020/05/2020051736.pdf

^[xviii] Gandhi, M K. Hind Swaraj. Chapter XIX. Navajivan Trust. Ahmedabad: 2000. pp53

^[xix] Ministry of Finance https://web.archive.org/web/20200612121248/https://cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.in/s3850af92f8d9903e7a4e0559a98ecc857/uploads/2020/05/2020051736.pdf

^[xx] Nadkarni, MV. Ethics, Environment and Culture- The Paradox of India. Ethics for Our Times- Essays in Gandhian Perspective. Oxford University Press (New Delhi-2011). pp107.

^[xxi] Self-Reliant India Movement. Ministry of Finance. Government of India. Phase 4.https://web.archive.org/web/20200612121248/https://cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.in/s3850af92f8d9903e7a4e0559a98ecc857/uploads/2020/05/2020051736.pdf

^[xxii] Modi’s Independence Day Speech, https://www.narendramodi.in/text-of-prime-minister-shri-narendra-modi-s-address-to-the-nation-from-the-ramparts-of-the-red-fort-on-the-74th-independence-day-august-15-2020-551013 (New Delhi: August 15, 2020)

^[xxiii] Gandhi, Mohandas Karamchand. Constructive Programme, Navajivan Trust Revised 1945, Ahmedabad: 2010.pp10.

^[xxiv]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young India.  accessed  September 23, 2020.

^[xxv] Relan, Aarushi. Atmanirbhar Policy. Amity Law School. Delhi: June,2020. https://lexlife.in/2020/06/04/analysis-atma-nirbhar-bharat-abhiyan/ accessed on September 9, 2020.

^[xxvi] Dasgupta, A K. Introduction. Gandhi’s Economic Thought. Routledge (London:1996).

^[xxvii] Relan, Aarushi. Atmanirbhar Policy. Amity Law School. Delhi: June,2020. https://lexlife.in/2020/06/04/analysis-atma-nirbhar-bharat-abhiyan/ accessed on September 9, 2020.

^[xxviii] Ibid.

^[xxix] Ministry of Finance https://web.archive.org/web/20200612121248/https://cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.in/s3850af92f8d9903e7a4e0559a98ecc857/uploads/2020/05/2020051736.pdf

^[xxx] Dasgupta, A K. Preference, Utility and Welfare. Chapter 2. Gandhi’s Economic Thought. Routledge (London:1996).

^[xxxi] Kumarappa, J C. Agro Village Industries, Chapter 3. Gandhian Economic Thought, Sarva Seva Sangh Prakashan. Rajghat, Varanasi: 1951. pp32-33  www.mkgandhi.org accessed September 10, 2020.

^[xxxii] Modi’s Independence Day Speech, https://www.narendramodi.in/text-of-prime-minister-shri-narendra-modi-s-address-to-the-nation-from-the-ramparts-of-the-red-fort-on-the-74th-independence-day-august-15-2020-551013 (New Delhi: August 15, 2020)

^[xxxiii] Modi, Narendra. May 12, 2020 Speech. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/full-text-pm-modis-address-to-nation-on-covid-19/articleshow/75702461.cms

^[xxxiv] Modi’s Independence Day Speech, https://www.narendramodi.in/text-of-prime-minister-shri-narendra-modi-s-address-to-the-nation-from-the-ramparts-of-the-red-fort-on-the-74th-independence-day-august-15-2020-551013 (New Delhi: August 15, 2020)

^[xxxv] Ibid.

^[xxxvi] Gandhi, Mohandas Karamchand. Constructive Programme, Navajivan Trust Revised 1945, Ahmedabad: 2010.pp3.

^[xxxvii] Kumarappa, J C. Agro Village Industries, Chapter 3. Gandhian Economic Thought, Sarva Seva Sangh Prakashan. Rajghat, Varanasi: 1951. Pp11  www.mkgandhi.org accessed September 10, 2020.

^[xxxviii] Dasgupta, A K. Introduction. Gandhi’s Economic Thought. Routledge (London:1996).

^[xxxix] Gandhi, Mohandas Karamchand. Constructive Programme, Navajivan Trust Revised 1945, Ahmedabad: 2010.pp3.

^[xl] Dasgupta, A K. Introduction. Gandhi’s Economic Thought. Routledge (London:1996).

^[xli] Dasgupta, A K. Preference, Utility and Welfare. Gandhi’s Economic Thought. Routledge (London:1996).

^[xlii] Gandhi, M.K. The Birth of Khadi. An Autobiography or The Story of My Experiments with Truth. Penguin (England: 1982).

^[xliii] Modi, Narendra. May 12, 2020 Speech. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/full-text-pm-modis-address-to-nation-on-covid-19/articleshow/75702461.cms

 

Gauri Dwivedi (GD):  This conversation comes in at a time when the Modi government would be celebrating its second year in its second term. I know it’s a somber moment and there won’t be any celebrations, so to say, but Mr Prabhu, I think it will be a good time to do a lot of introspection for the government as well.Two years into its second term, almost halfway there,what are some of the big milestones or achievements in your assessment. First, economically, as a technocrat, what is your assessment in terms of how the government’s report card has been in the last two years.

Suresh Prabhu (SP): Thank you very much for this opportunity.As you know,these last two years have been marked by unprecedented challenges for any government, in most parts of the world. It’s not all.Because, more or less as the we began 2020, we had Corona. Infact, it started towards the end of 2019 and that is why it is called COVID-19, because it actually started in 2019. So, in a way coinciding with the beginning of this Government, not necessarily at that time but a few months later. As a result of that, you have seen a huge slowing down of global economy. There was a huge contraction, not just slowing down but contraction.

Biggest economy US has contracted significantly. Japan has always been a slowing economy for last two decades, but again it contracted. China, did not contract much but it is the second largest also. The European Union, the biggest block after US again had a very negative impact of 2020. As a result of that, there was also impact on the Indian Economy. As compared to 1991, when our total influence on global economy was not as large as it is today.In the last 30 years economy has more integrated with the global economy, whether it is on the demand side where it affects your domestic as well as international trade. Or, whether even from supply side with a lot of disruptions in supplies, because India is also part of a global supply chain. So, in both ways India in away was affected.  So, you have to put that in perspective that it was a very difficult period for any government in the world and not only for India.

Of course, my few weeks have been, again, even more challenging, because the second wave has seriously impacted socio-economic life besides health, which is a very major challenge for any government to deal with. And when it happens, an unprecedented crisis of this magnitude happens the resources get diverted to fire-fighting than in building durable infrastructure.

So, you can see that last few months have been diverted to fighting pandemic. Therefore, you have to whether it is giving free food to the migrant which is absolutely necessary, or which is providing support to small and medium enterprises. So, all of these are enabling fiscal measures, and even to some extent, expansion of monetary policy to ensure that we actually create enough monetary resources available to the economy.

All of that, I would not call it a normal course of time, so when evaluating the last two years’ performance of the government, it must be seen in that context.When seen in that perspective it will stand out to be one of the most difficult and challenging periods for any government in the world. So, therefore, I think this has to be balanced and looked at in that perspective so I think it’s a very difficult time. But I would say that the government is managing it with a lot of strength.

GD: Given the fluidity of the situation right now, do you think that economic decisions can’t be cast in stone. Because, when the budget was to be presented, we said at the beginning of this year that we’re going to nowfollow a certain process as far as our economic decisions are concerned, we’d continue with that. Do you think it’s time to do course correction?Because you’re right that it’s such a fluid situation, globally the impact has been so severe because of COVID that to prepare ourselves for the next challenge, or to be in time for the next anniversary of the government next year, what do you think would be the two or three top decisions or top issues that need to be dealt with economically for India to be far more resilient.

SP: If you look at it, obviously, the fundamental objective behind any economic policy should be to accelerate the growth rate. That is very important. But we bring in more dynamism to Indian economy so one is to make it grow faster, you have to make it more competitive. If the economy is not competitive, it will never be able to succeed in global markets. And I was saying earlier, that because of our integration with the global market, India’s economic global market is even far more than before. Now we also want to increase the share of India’s global trade and if we are not competitive, we will not be able to do that.

And you cannot become competitive globally unless you are competitive back home. So, making India competitive in all spheres of economic activity has to be a primary goal. And to do that, competitive does not necessary mean only being in competition, but also making Indian industry less regulated. Doing away with unnecessary and non-productive regulations.

The second part would be that if you look at the current economic model of most of the fast-growing economies who have succeeded in the last five decades, you will notice that Each one of them succeeded because they kept capturing share of global market more and more and could expand their footprint globallyeven more.So, as I was saying competitive, but to increase your global footprint you need strategy.

I am just telling so that you asked me what’s the roadmap so the roadmap was prepared. As a Commerce Industry Minister, I had set up a group under the chairmanship of Sujit Bhalla, who is currently India’s representative to the International Monetary Fund. Today’s Foreign Minister, who was at that time working for the Tata’s, Dr Jaishankar was a member of this. Former Commerce Secretary Shri Rajiv Kher; the Chairman of Quality Control of India and the former partner of McKinsey, the chairman of McKinseywere all made members.

I had prepared a roadmap on what is that we need to do to increase India’s market share, globally. And I am reiterating that if you don’t have a bigger market share, your economic growth back home will be affected. All economies which have succeeded in the last few decades, have done this very aggressively. So that’s the second thing that we need to work on.

Thirdly, part of that, is that if you look at each of thesegment of India’s economy, whether it is manufacturing industry, services,or agriculture, each one of them will have to contribute.So, unless all the three cylinders are put on fire, atthe same time, we will not be able to do that. So, for industry, competitiveness is one part of also ensuring, and then again that’s also the extension of the competition as I said, increasing your share globally. We had prepared a roadmap of $5 Trillion economy to increase industry’s share which is currently 16% of GDP to 20%. So, making it a trillion-dollar contribution from industry to the entire economy.

And I had people compete each and every segment on what will contribute in $1 trillion. It is easy to say 20% Easy to say 1 trillion, but you must then now break it out, how much it will come from. Say for example, contribution from steel, or cement or something else, and to make sure that you get that then again you have to break it down further and find out whether house steel or cement, what are the sectoral problem that we’re facing. How will you remove them?So, this was prepared by me in consultation with CII, because as industry body. And again, not only CII because CII can do it as an academic exercise, we had got hands on people. Not only Anand Mahindra from Mahindra and Mahindra but also Pawan Goenka because he is the hands-on man for the automobile sector.Incidentally automobile is the largest component of India’s manufacturing.In fact, under the old series of GDP, 49% of manufacturers used to come only from automobile sector.

So, that one, and services, we identified 12 champion sectors or services, and said that these are the 12 champion sectors which has a potential to grow. And then agriculture, many measures are required and Prime Minister Modi has taken a number of measures, but one of them will be India’s increasing Agri exports.The potential for Agriexports is 100 million USD. When we say Agri-exports it means food is agriculture, horticulture, dairy, marine products and meat, all put together. Interestingly, that when you are going to increase your agriculture export your foreign buyers are not going to buy your agricultural products unless they are quality products. So, you’re actually by exporting agriculture products or integrating quality into your domestic food production.

GD:  I have to ask you what happened to that plan?

SP: Actually, it was made almost three years ago. So, I got it I got it processed when I was a minister and those were the final days of Modi 1 government. I don’t know what is the present status but this complete roadmap is ready.

GD: Let me then ask you, there are some specifics around the economic part that I would have come back to. Because you mentioned Mr Jaishankar, because there are so many global headwinds as far as economics and geopolitical equations coming together. How do you see India’s role going forward in terms of the largest sentiment, the world has about decoupling?Nobody can wish China away, it’s too big a country economically to wish, we don’t want it either. But this sentiment to reduce the excessive dependence economically on China, has that translated into India’s economic gains, and how do you see that in the future as well.

SP:  The world has evolved into very interesting economic interdependence.Now if you look at four decades ago, no country was dependent on another country as much as it is dependent today.

If you look at it, currently what a challenge that we’re facing that we are the biggest manufacturer of vaccine, still we need some ingredient which will be coming from some other part of the world.So, that economic interdependence, has become the hallmark of today’s world economy.When you talk about decoupling, it means whether this entire ecosystem that has been developed, globally, should be reinvented or re looked into, that is the question.

But in that context.We must have a medium term and a long-term plan, but also short-term action plan. Medium term plan could be that to an extent the critical part of your own supply chains, you should have a supply chain security like we talk about energy security. We try to secure your energy resources in a way that no disruption can ever be caused and that is a strategic reserve. The US that is now becoming the largest producer of Oil and Gas both has strategic reserves. Thanks to shale gas, the US has now become a net exporter of oil and gas.

Actually, it has completely changed the dimension. Still, they have s strategic reserve, we too have it.  So, from that context, I think we should think about a strategic relook into our supply chains. This is very important.

I will give you an example which is not directly related to India. There are certain rare earth materials which are very important for any industry related to electronics.

And as you know that some of these electronics are now running the world. How do you do E-Commerce? How do you run airlines or banking systems? These are all done using electronic platforms based on some electronic device either hardware or software.  Here, software is not necessarily rare earth but based on that.

Now, I don’t want to talk about a country specific so I will not mention. But one country was not giving those rare earths and they thought we will crumble. From that point of view only, we have to look into very seriously, about strategic evaluation of our supply chain. Interdependence is good, for example, why you think when we talk about it, we would like to manufacturemobile phones in India. When you manufacture mobile phones, they cannot be manufactured from A to Z in India. Some parts will have to be imported. We’ll be assembling it finally here, but not necessarily making everything here, which is not even desirable. Even the end manufacturer, under whose name the phone is being sold may also not like an end-to-end manufacturing in one single country. Not because of any strategic reasons but simply economic reasons. So, I am saying, put all together. What you asked me about decoupling is a very important issue. Now I feel China needs to import a lot.

When I was a commerce minister that first year, we reduced the debt deficit for the first time, it was always rising for last 30 years. I got it reduced. I called China’s Commerce Minister here, worked with him, and prepared a strategy. State deficit can be reduced by two ways either by reducing imports or by increasing exports. I worked on both. As exports increased, we talked also of pharmaceuticals.

So, I said you must work with our companies, and allow them to work with regulatory compliance because they’re so good. They’re US FDA approved, European FDA approved and also approved by the Japanese FDA. SO, what could be the regulatory issues. I have not asked you to compromise on health by helping them on regulation, but I’ll tell them so I worked on it.

So decoupling is something which has to happen for sure, but must have a medium-term plan for it, and a long-term perspective. We also must look at it from this angle, that when you are inviting foreign companies to invest in India. We must take them on board, fully, because they will be investing in India for end product may be for domestic market, as well as reaching India’s other strengths, like good cheap labor, with good access of manpower etc etc. for exporting to other countries.So, their export markets also depend upon how they benefit from their presence in India. So, we will have to take them on board first and then deal with this issue.

GD: So mobile manufacturing has definitely been a big star, an outperformer in the overall Indian manufacturing scenario so far.In your assessment which sector could be the next breakthrough for India? We need to identify our core areas of competence in your assessment, what could those be after mobile manufacturing?

SP:  That is a very good question.I had prepared a new industrial policy. This was only the third such policy for India. The first was in 1956, that was the Industrial Resolution and not a policy. Then in 1991, at that time the Industry Minister was Narasimha Rao.

Our Fifth Challenge is from this segment of new industries. We have the fifth largest economy even today; we are not a small economy that way. And therefore, when we arethe fifth largest economy, we have already created some industry. We are the sixth or seventh largest industrialized economy in the world also. So, we have large industries not as large as some other countries but still fairly large. So, first challenges that we cannot make it redundant. So, we have to modernize them. Otherwise, what happens to all the investment that has gone into it to implement it is gone into So, the first parts will be modernizing this part of it. So, this is also an important component of a new trust areas. Second part will be investing into the new emerging industries. One of them, and the slide I said when they will no concrete at all on the horizon, life sciences, you know, not pharmaceutical, but a broader sense of life sense will be one of the critical industries which will grow at faster rate. Then we’ll talk about life science, life science is one science, but it’s a convergence of several other important technological frontiers, whether it is, information technology, whether it is blockchain all the new areas that are coming into our blockchain, whether your clinical research. For Life Sciences ultimate leader to do clinical research, clinical trials. So, when you’re doing clinical trials blockchain can come very handy to you.

When you talk about artificial intelligence.This can be used and applied anywhere but artificial intelligence is a very broad science about technology not science, but applied part of it, if you look at it. There are so many segments that can benefit in India particularly agriculture.You can work on it in a very significant way.Like watering a plant,can we not use AI to decide, devise a program with which exactly at the right time, that type of water can be dispensed into the plant.

So, you are asking which industries, the licenses and technology which you call us, emerging technologies, whether they’re blockchain or machine learning or artificial intelligence, or big data, all of that together, can be actually put into Internet of Things, where actually you connect everything in internet together. All these applied parts of them. See we cannot claim to be the originator of this technology and so I get to work on that and we can see I will develop new R&D and develop new patterns everything. Even today we don’t file too many patents in the world.

We are not even in the top five of filing technology patents though we are the fifth largest economy. So there has to be a convergence between R&D and size of the economy. When you are the fifth largest economy, why are you not in the top five of filing the patents and R&Dof new ideas. So, I think that is going to take some time.

GD: No matter how much we verified the Chinese economic model, what needs to sort of also put that out in perspective, that it was in 2010, that their five-year plans said that technology will be the next frontier that we need to conquer. So 11 years later we are sort of still talking about it and it’s important to sort of understand that how the Chinese realized this, more than a decade ago, but then you know let me then ask you this Sir, as we talk about Mr Prabhu that, you know, COVID has wreaked havoc with the Indian economy like it has with the rest of the world, but this was also a year that we were supposed to sort of get back on track, you know, after last year’s horrible economic devastation that happened because of COVID. We were expected to sort of get back on track this year, ADB had announced a lot of others had announced double digit growth expectations.In your assessment,are those still on track, and more importantly, what do you think can be done to try and reduce a cushion, the economic pain that lies ahead, after the second wave.

SP:  I think, pre – second wave, one of the thrust areas rightly, put on the table by Prime Minister was infrastructure investment to which I fully agree. In fact, infrastructure has the potential to create many more jobs while it is being built. Because you create infrastructure and therefore, bridge the infrastructure deficit that we are suffering from for a very long time then obviously that will become a launching pad for a new enterprise. And therefore, we’re talking about even competitiveness earlier. So,one of the competitive advantageswe will have over a period of time is that you will have good infrastructure. So, investing into infrastructure is one thing that has to be done very, very quickly to revive India’s economy as well as create medium term plan for India’s increasing share in the global markets.

The second part is that you know, India’s economic all the economies of the world including US, and even Germany or for that matter all major economies of the world, small and medium enterprise, play a key role. Now what is the definition of small medium enterprise in India very different from US, or Germany, but still there are a very important component of economies. So, making SMEs, stronger, more efficient, is very important. Now we talked about pain. I think they are the ones who have suffered extreme pain. And I think that’s why you will need to work on it. I remember something very interesting.In 2008,when we came out with the idea, because the particularly the USA the European said, and they talk in context of Lehman Brothers and others that are too big to fail. Later on, the government has to rescue them. I had said at that time, those are too big to fail, but a small medium enterprise, too small to survive.

So, when they are too big to fail. You try to rescue them. What about a too small to survive element of India’s economy,you must support it. That’s why we have to actually support the small and medium enterprise in a very significant way. And again, if you look at it again why I’m saying this, if you look at the employment profile of the country as well as the world actually. Because we are under condition to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the economic model of the world is changing. Therefore, the employment profile also changes. So, in that context, if you protect small and medium enterprises, you’re actually creating a safety net for some sections of society, because otherwise if SMEs are not there then those many people will again be seekers of jobs. Those who are creators of jobs today will become seekers.

Here’s the second wavenow and it is very difficult to evaluate the impact on economy, because during the first wave there was a lockdown etc so we know the economic output at contact is significantly different. Now because the impact of second wave is localised and Maharashtra is an important contributor to India’s GDP, we don’t know to what extent will that affect the economy. We will have to evaluate this and based on that evaluation we will have to spread support to the society.

GD: There is this very interesting study that McKinsey did last year about Indian manufacturing, they said that while in the US, on average, firms grown 10 times their size in a 35-year time period, in India, firms grow just twice their size in 35 years. So that explains the whole dwarf concept that exists in in Indian manufacturing that you know we don’t know what to do with them because they’re still not big enough to compete, and they’re still not so small that we sort of you know need to handhold them.And I think that’s really the crux of the Indian manufacturing or the larger problem as far as Indian industry is concerned. But having said that, I want to ask you this as we sort of come to the end of this conversation that Mr Prabhu as weend this, in your hope and assessment, what would be the one big milestone that you would wish the government achieves next year when we have this conversation, and the government is completing another year into its second term, that one big aspiration that you would want to be fulfilled this year.

SP: I think that when onefaces a pressing challenge of this magnitude that occurs once in a lifetime of not just one generation but few generations later, then there are multiple problems that you face in one go. I think one good part of that is that Mr Modi has shown tremendous leadership. He has actually taken this challenge and faced it squarely, so he is facing it head on, though it’s not easy job to do, but he still is doing a fabulous work in terms of facing the challenge, working with people and address this challenge together.

So, in my opinion, that’s a great contribution of Mr Modi during this very troubled time, and I am sure you can see it as you go along, you’ll be able to see that. He’s also working on a very important program which is not probably well appreciated by the people, is providing good quality drinking water to every household of India through pipe water. It was started during this second Modi government. This is called “Ghar Ghar Jal”.It is a very important program.

In Atal Ji’s cabinet, I had six different responsibilities and one of them was, water.And therefore, I dealt with this hands-on business so I know how important this program is. So, this again is a big program that you will see being completed in two-threeyears’ time.

This will be a great thing because if you are giving good quality water, you are actually addressing public health issues. Because two thirds disease in India, minus the pandemic, are waterborne and one-third of the fatalities happen because of waterborne diseases.So, if you’re dealing with water, you are helping that.

Secondly, in rural areas, a girl cannot go to school because you have to go and face the water, a woman of the house has to probably walk some few miles to get a water, so she cannot work in the field. So, if you address a water problem and you have good quality drinking water to every household,we will see higher enrolment of girls for schooling. We will see better enrolment of women into employment and therefore their family incomes will rise. This program will thus have huge benefits. So, I think this is a great contribution of the Narendra Modi Government. It is his personal idea, his flagship program that he has launched, I think these are things a big contribution of Narendra Modi in these last few years.

GD: Thank you so much for speaking to India foundation, I hope that the storm that is upon us quickly passes by India gets vaccinated soon and next year when we have this conversation, we are talking about the high growth trajectory and meeting all those big achievements that right now look a little difficult because of the present scenario that we are living in. Hopefully, which will be short term.Thank you so much for speaking to us.

SP: Thank You.

Brief Bios:

Shri Suresh Prabhakar Prabhu is India’s Sherpa to the G7 and G20.He was formerly the Minister of Railways, Minister of Commerce & Industry and Civil Aviation.

Gaurie Dwivedi is a Senior Journalist covering economy, policy and politics. She is also a Visiting Fellow at USI.

India is the largest producer of milk, jute and pulse in the world, second largest in sugarcane, cotton, groundnut, fruits, vegetables and fisheries production and third in cereal production.^[i] Despite this, the agricultural growth rate is dismally low and Indian farmers are for the most part, poverty stricken. We need pragmatic answers to the woes of the farmers, if we have to raise the standard of living of the majority of out people. As per an U.N report, 21% of people in India live below the poverty line. Over 30% even have less than $1.25 per day available – they are considered extremely poor. This makes the Indian subcontinent one of the poorest countries in the world; women and children, the weakest members of Indian society, suffer most even in the 21^st century.

If the situation is to be improved, then reforms in the agriculture sector, which employs 41.49 percent of India’s workforce^[ii] is an imperative. More importantly, about 70 percent of its rural households still depend primarily on agriculture for their livelihood.^[iii] Talking of agricultural reforms in India is like having the aspirations for a bullet train track in Ranchi or Patna. It seems an impossible project because of diverse and dissenting views. But answers must be found. Reforms of course are not a panacea to all the ills of the farm sector, but it is a vital and important step towards improving the lives of the vast number of people engaged in farming.

Why Reforms are Needed

There are a plethora of issues which needs to be addressed: rotting of tonnes of surplus food grains in government godowns, denial of proper prices for their produce to the farmers, poor irrigation infrastructure, fluctuations of climatic conditions and the policy of the government to support Agriculture till date with loan waivers and announcement of M.S.P. (Minimum Support Price). There are varied reasons of farmer’s distress.

India is basically an agrarian economy and the agricultural sector needs reforms,  if we have to raise the standard of living of the majority of our people. The Farms Bills, passed by the government are a step in this direction. They have the potential to change the face of Indian agriculture by transforming agriculture, the main means of livelihood of a vast majority of people, into an agri-business enterprise. This will provide to the burgeoning population, new avenues of economic opportunities and propel a revolution agriculture, much like the Green revolution of 1966. When the ‘Kesar’ of Kashmir, ‘Makhana’ of Bihar, ‘Mango and Guavas’ of Uttar Pradesh, ‘Bamboo shoots’ of North-East, ‘Bhindi’ of Gujarat and ‘Kathal and Prawns’ of Orissa get a global market platform, India’s hard-working farmers will get the right price for their produce, free  from interference by intermediaries or middlemen. The vision of Prime Minister Modi is to transform India into a food-export powerhouse, exploring local possibilities and marketing them globally.

Gandhiji once said: ‘Real India lives in the villages… the India of my dreams will be one where agriculture would bring economic self-sufficiency’. But post-Independence, the experiment with democracy has also witnessed bad experiments in the economic sector leading to lop-sided growth, increasing poverty and unemployment due to neglect of the agricultural sector. Most of the Governments brought changes and reforms but lacked a vision and foresight. Except for the Green Revolution of 1966, most of the time the agricultural sector suffered because of the liberalisation and privatisation model being imbibed across the world.

Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MRNREGS) and Public Distribution System have generally been used as doles to certify the path of welfare state followed by India, but till date has not achieved the desired results. Now, in a bid to transform the agriculture sector, the Modi led NDA Government has brought three prominent Agricultural reforms which have the potential to revamp and overhaul the stagnant agricultural sector.

The Farm Laws

The three Farm Reform Laws brought by the government are:

• Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020
• Farmer’s (Empowerment and Protection) agreement on price assurance and Farmservices Act, 2020
• Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020

These three reform bills have the capacity to lay down the roadmap for agricultural self-sufficiency and prosperity in India. They take into account various research studies and reports of public policy over the last fifty years by various governments, and hence, no political motive can be ascribed to the passage of these bills. Their impact on the agriculture sector and on the income of the farmers is likely to be far-reaching, if backed by proper regulatory and institutional mechanisms to ensure fairness and transparency.

The reforms shall be beneficial to small farmers as it lays down the procedure for barrier-free inter-state and intra-state trade of farmer’s produce. This first Bill aims to end the license-permit raj in the agricultural sector, which benefitted the middleman at the cost of the farmer. The farmers can also explore the possibility of selling their produce online. The second Bill ushers in the system of contract farming in India. Farmers can now enter into long-term contracts (upto five years) with agri-business firms for selling their future produces at a pre-agreed price, assuring them future income despite fluctuations of weather. For the farmer, there is no transportation and storage costs and they end up with a better price for their goods. Further, there shall be no change in Minimum Support Prices and no loss to agricultural mandis. Amendments have also been made in the Essential Commodities Act for better price realisation to farmers. Agricultural products like cereals, edible oils, oilseeds, pulses, onions, potatoes shall be deregulated. New funds for fisheries, dairy development, herbal plantation, livestock vaccination shall be created.

Opposition to agricultural market reforms is politically motivated, and designed to preserve the standing of certain vested interests. While the country was still struggling with the Chinese virus which caused the Covid-19 pandemic, the decision of the farmers to hit the streets had far-reaching political ramifications. Farmers from Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Western Uttar Pradesh became the major force behind the protests. In Punjab, Congress along with Akali Dal— a long time ally of the BJP in NDA, also supported the farmer’s protest. Ms Harsimrat Kaur Badal, a minister in the NDA government, quit the cabinet due to differences of opinion on the issue. Captain Amarinder Singh, the chief minister of Punjab passed laws in the State Assembly to nullify the Central Farm laws. The other Congress-ruled State governments in Rajasthan, and Chattisgarh also passed similar legislations. Several rounds of negotiations between the farmer’s union and Govt. representatives did not bear any fruit. As a result, a stalemate was created on the farm reforms and the matter is now sub-judice.

A History of Protests

Even earlier, the nullification of Article 370, legislation of C.A.A and its supposed connection with NRC, NPR, CAB was a new campaign promulgated by the ‘Left Liberals’ which in course of time turned into a violent agitation. For much of the 20^th century, the process of ‘Constitutionalism’ in India had been governed by the ideology of the ‘Liberal Socialists’ who aimed at the reconstruction of the society but could never achieve it. When the electorates preferred market and free choice, the ‘Liberals’ expressed ‘powerlessness’ in the new system and favoured economic redistribution through the affirmative action model, but paradoxically, none could achieve the desired results. Hence, the new campaign of the leftist elites is to misguide and disillusion the farmers and peasants against any constructive reform by the government.

Recently, the tractor rally and violent protests at Red Fort, which was predominantly led by the intermediaries and supported by some opposition parties against laws made by a government which enjoys a comfortable majority in Parliament was indicative of a reign of terror and anarchism sponsored by vicious cartels and opposition groups. Noise and violence had become the currency of discourse in the largest democracy of the world for some time.

The performance data of procurement of food-grains under the M.S.P by the Food Corporation of India is an eye-opener  and story-teller in this direction. In the past 15 years (2003-2017), procurement by government agencies has been 26.8 percent for wheat (procurement of 359 million tonnes versus production of 1,340 million tonnes) and 31.3 percent for rice (procurement of 488 million tonnes, production of 1,558 million tonnes). The numbers are similar for 2018–31.3 percent procurement of wheat, 32.7 percent for rice. The question to be asked then is, where does the balance go?

According to the Sixty-Second Report of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (2018-2019) titled, ‘Agriculture Marketing and Role of Weekly Gramin Haats’, presented to Parliament in January 2019, the surplus is purchased by moneylenders and traders at very low prices. The moneylender and traders buy independently or work as an agent of a bigger merchant of the nearby mandi. Clearly, the balance of power is against small farmers.^[iv] The small and marginal farmers constitute 86% of our agricultural class. This vulnerable class becomes the victim of money-lenders and intermediaries in the absence of government procurement and low prices. As a result, the middleman and intermediaries have their discretion to fix throwaway and low prices for the crop.

Today, the drivers of the Farm reforms protest are these rich and influential farmers and middlemen. Thus, ‘the politics of the past is attempting to prevent the prosperity of the future.’^[v] Which is why, the intention of the Narendra Modi government to transform the agricultural sector into a modern business enterprise by linking the crop yields of the farmers with the global market is a landmark decision. It shall directly improve the lives of lakhs of farmers who shall get a better price for their crops. Hence, all the protests and demonstrations sponsored by middlemen and intermediaries are directed to stall the reform process which will lead to a loss of thousands of crores for them.

Notwithstanding the noisy public discourse, the agricultural sector under Modi government has been steadily improving and will witness a fillip with latest farm reforms, contrary to the opposition by some quarters. The resilience of the farming community in the face of adversities and economic recession has made agriculture the only sector to have recorded a positive growth of 3.4% at constant prices in 2020-21, when other sectors were declining. Either it is because of the Lockdown and Reverse Migration of labour, or the slowdown in industrial growth, agriculture has emerged as a saviour in this time of distress. The share of agriculture in Gross Domestic Product has reached almost 20% for the first time in the last 17 years, making it the sole bright spot in G.D.P performance during 2020-21. During 2020-21, while the Gross Value added for the entire economy contracted by 7.2%, growth in Gross Value Added for agriculture maintained a positive growth of 3.4%.

Union Agriculture Minister Giriraj Singh, during an interaction with the media highlighted the fact that while wheat worth Rs 33,000 crore was procured during 2013-14, which increased to Rs 62,000 crore during 2019-20, with a growth of 87%. Similarly, paddy worth Rs 63,298 crore was procured between 2013-14 which went up to Rs 1.41 lakh crore in 2019-20. Further, 106 lakh farmers in the country have benefitted through the Direct Bank Transfer (DBT) scheme of Rs 6000 each.^[vi] He also highlighted the fact that the budget allocation for agriculture was Rs 88,811 crore between 2009 and 2014, which has increased to Rs 4,87,238 crore between 2014 and 2020, registering a growth of 438%. The agricultural credit during 2013-14 was Rs seven lakh crore, which has gone upto Rs 16.5 lakh crore during the financial year 2021-22—an increase of 135%.

Hence, a closer introspection of the statistics reveals the fact that the regulatory policies in the agricultural sector is leading to the welfare of the farmers due to a quantum jump in the crop yield and thereby consolidating the creditability of agriculture reforms in the long run.

Recommendations

In the words of Amit Kalantri, ‘A farmer is a magician who produces money from the mud.’ Hence, certain things need to be kept in mind while unveiling the Farm reforms in future.First, the focus of agricultural policies must shift from production per se to farmers’ livelihoods. Hence, such crop yields should be encouraged which help in creating sustainable livelihood opportunities in the long run and encourage agricultural crop diversity. Secondly, the local administration should assist new start-ups and provide all possible protection from anti-social elements. Thirdly, climate fluctuations create high risk for the quality and output of yield. Hence, soil health and climatic factors should be taken into consideration.Fourthly, it is important that the farmers are given education, training and expertise in mechanised farming in the crops of their farm . Fifthly, a low Minimum Support Price for various farm produces fails to cover the cost incurred and thereby creates agrarian distress, farmer indebtedness and suicides. The govt. shall have to do a tight-rope walk on this front as raising the M.S.P shall invite the ire of W.T.O and also create inflationary conditions. Hence, in course of time, an alternative to the Minimum Support Price should be evolved so that the farmers get maximum benefit of their produce in the market.

Conclusion

Agriculture remains the world’s biggest employer. It is the most important source of food and raw materials for various economic activities and the only source of sustenance for 70 percent of India’s population. The Government must push ahead with the farm reforms in the interest of farmers, despite the opposition by vested interests. Regulating the implementation of farm laws is also important for the future of the B.J.P government as the implementation and transition of the agrarian economy will have a positive impact on the outcome of 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

The Narendra Modi government has laid down pathbreaking achievements and  the governance style of the Prime Minister has helped solve many complex issues: Terrorism in Kashmir through abrogation of Article 370, construction of Ram temple in Ayodhya, rise of India as a Soft power on the Foreign policy front, abolishing instant Triple Talaq, and the establishment of good governance models in various states. The Farm Reforms 2020 are also a gigantic step in the right direction as they will definitely help in new job creation and agricultural prosperity. The fulfilment of a number of Sustainable Development Goals is also anchored on the performance of this sector.The SDGs are interconnected in many contexts and a link with agriculture is clear for many of them as explained in the Table below. (See Table 1)

Table 1: Agriculture’s link with SDGs ^[vii]

SDG	Link with Agriculture
SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms. Everywhere	As most of the poor in the developing world are dependent on agriculture, ending poverty is linked to increasing returns from agriculture. Major indicators are ownership and control over land and natural resources, both of which are essential endowments for practicing agriculture.
SDG2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture	Directly related to sustainable agriculture
SDG3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages	Can only be achieved through nutritious food produced via agriculture and allied sectors
SDG5: Achieve Gender Equality and empower all women and girls	Women play an important but largely unrecognised role in agriculture; their empowerment, decision-making and time for care work are pathways in leveraging agriculture for nutrition
SDG 6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all	Increasing water use efficiency across sectors, integrated water resource management, and protection and restoration of water related ecosystems—all have a bearing on agriculture
SDG7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all	Reduction in agriculture’s dependence on fossil fuels and consequent pollution
SDG8:  Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all	Agriculture engages a large segment of the working population and consequently has a bearing on the realisation of decent work and economic growth
SDG10: Reduce inequality within and among countries	Disparity in asset ownership and wages in agriculture activities
SDG12: Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns	Sustainable management of all natural resources, sustainable production patterns, and reducing food loss and waste
SDG13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts	Strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity of agriculture to the impacts of climate change, and lowering green-house gas emissions without affecting food production
SDG 14: Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development.	Conservation and sustainable use of marine and coastal ecosystems, reduction of pollution, and sustainable fish harvest.
SDG 15: Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss	All these are the feedstock for agriculture activities; indiscriminate agriculture expansion has led to decline of forest area and biodiversity loss and overexploitation of land, resulting in degradation.

 

(Author Brief Bio: Saumya Maniny Sinha teaches Political Science at St. Xavier’s College, Ranchi, Jharkhand.)

^[i] Address of Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman to the media in June, 2020.

^[ii] https://www.statista.com/statistics/271320/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-india/

^[iii] http://www.fao.org/india/fao-in-india/india-at-a-glance/en/

^[iv] Chikermane , Gautam, ‘ Agriculture reforms: ignore political rhetoric, embrace prosperity economics,’ Sep 22,2020

^[v] ibid

^[vi] Modi govt allocated 438% more budget to agriculture sector compared to UPA: Giriraj Singh, The Times of India

PTI | Updated: Feb 6, 2021, 13:59 IST accessed on 18^th April, 2021.

^[vii] R V Bhavani in RV Bhavani and Priya Rampal, “Harnessing Agriculture for Achieving the SDGs on Poverty and Zero Hunger,” ORF Issue Brief No. 407, October 2020, Observer Research Foundation.