The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) was initially formed as a sub-regional grouping for economic cooperation with a view to promoting free trade, cross-border investment, tourism and technical cooperation amongst the member countries. Established on 06 June 1997, in Bangkok, Thailand, it was given the acronym BIST-EC, the name being derived from its four founding members (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Thailand), with the last two letters denoting Economic Cooperation. On 22 December of the same year, Myanmar was added to the grouping which was thereafter renamed BIMST-EC. Two more countries, Nepal and Bhutan became members in February 2004, and in the first summit meeting held on 31 July of that year, the grouping was renamed as BIMSTEC – Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation.

This year, as BIMSTEC commemorates the silver jubilee of its founding, is an opportune time to analyse what the organisation has achieved so far and more importantly, the road ahead which it needs to charter. In this issue, Mr Shamsher M Chowdhury, BB, the former foreign secretary of Bangladesh gives an account of how the organisation evolved and about its future prospects. He writes of the formal adoption of the BIMSTEC Charter on 30 March 2022, during the Fifth Summit held virtually in Colombo, and posits that the shared commitment of member countries to make BIMSTEC “a dynamic, effective and result-oriented regional organisation for promoting a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable Bay of Bengal region” is a goal that can be achieved through greater cooperation and deeper integration.

Shri Rajiv Bhatia, in his article on Incorporating the Blue Economy into BIMSTEC Agenda, expands on the term ‘Blue Economy,’ which represents the totality of water-related activities and resources—lakes, rivers, bays, coastal regions, seas and oceans—which need sustainable development to meet the growing needs of an expanding world population. He comes out with viable policy suggestions for promoting the Blue Economy and for Trade and Investment, with a view to transforming BIMSTEC into an effective instrument of regional integration.

Madhumita Kothari, in her very focussed and analytical article, discusses the leadership role that India can play in making BIMSTEC a bridge for Regional Connectivity, Prosperity & Security, highlighting in the process, the importance of the Bay. In yet another very focussed article, Shri Anil Trigunayat gives his views on how ‘Brand BIMSTEC’ can be built and concludes with a series of recommendations which could be relevant to achieve that aim. The issue of Climate Change is discussed by Shri Damodar Pujari, with a focus on the role that BIMSTEC can play as a group in tackling this challenge. In yet another innovative article, Shri Ankit Shah spreads the ambit further, delving into how BIMSTEC can integrate with ASEAN and the wider Indo-Pacific region. Finally, in the concluding article focussed on BIMSTEC, Commodore Anil Jai Singh posits on building a resilient Maritime Security Architecture.

A promising future beckons the countries around the Bay of Bengal. It is up to the leadership of all the countries and seize the moment, in the interest of their people and of the region as a whole.

Author Breif Bio:  Maj Gen Dhruv C. Katoch is Director, India Foundation and Editor, India Foundation Journal.

As BIMSTEC enters two and a half decades of its existence, it is time to take stock of BIMSTEC’s achievements and chart the organisation’s future course and direction. In order to make a realistic assessment of BIMSTEC’s standing in the region, it is relevant to assess how other regional/sub-regional organisations are conducting their business to promote cooperation in the South and South East Asia region.

ASEAN has developed extensive legal and institutional framework to carry out its broad mandate covering political, economic, security and socio-cultural issues. However, the once strong regional forum is showing strains at the seams. SASEC (South Asian Subregional Economic Cooperation) with its skeleton structure and limited mandate, has been able to complete 46 development projects worth over US$ 9 billion with the ADB assistance since 2001. SAARC, with all its initial promise, has continued to struggle, primarily due to political issues between some key members.

In a competitive environment of various forms of regional cooperation initiatives in this vital and strategically important region, an effective, visible and result-oriented BIMSTEC offers an opportunity for a rule and institution-based cooperation. BIMSTEC needs to expedite developing legal framework of cooperation in core areas like trade, investment, connectivity and education. Establishing a sound financing mechanism for project-based cooperation is of paramount importance. Strengthening of the Secretariat with necessary skills and financial resources is another area that requires the attention of the Member States. In this context, the decision of the government of India to donate US$ 1 million for the BIMSTEC Secretariat is a most welcome and timely move. The adoption and signing of the BIMSTEC Charter at the 5^th BIMSTEC Summit in Colombo on 30 March 2022, will create the necessary legal frame work for strengthening multi-sectoral cooperation and the organisation’s relevance within the organisation, and hopefully even beyond.

For BIMSTEC to move forward effectively, it is important to be guided by the consideration that sustained and steady progress should take precedence over form as one cannot afford to lose the momentum that is being generated. It is a fact that BIMSTEC is receiving attention as an important building block of the emerging Indo-Pacific region and it can play a much greater role in shaping the future socio-economic architecture of this region.

A Result Oriented BIMSTEC

According to the Bangkok Declaration of 6 June 1997, BIMSTEC was created with the desire “to establish a firm foundation for common action to promote sub-regional cooperation in the areas of trade, investment, technological exchange and other interrelated areas in a spirit of equality and partnership and thereby contribute towards peace, progress and prosperity in their common region”. Beginning with a sub-regional initiative with four Member States, BIMSTEC has become a promising regional organisation comprising seven countries of the Bay of Bengal region: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.

BIMSTEC leaders are now pledge bound to work collectively towards making the organisation stronger, more effective, and result oriented.

One of the founding principles of BIMSTEC is to “constitute an additionality, to not be a substitute for bilateral, regional or multilateral cooperation involving the Member States.” During the last 25 years, five summit meetings have been held. In addition, there was the BIMSTEC Leaders’ Retreat in Goa, India, on 16 October 2016. This was a creative and thoughtful initiative. The Annual Ministerial Meeting held at the level of external affairs/foreign ministers of member states is the body responsible for coordinating and providing overall policy guidance on all BIMSTEC matters. The Ministerial Meeting had been held regularly. Sadly, the Covid pandemic did act as a major impediment to holding the meetings in person.

Senior Officials’ Meeting (SOM) is the most important layer of BIMSTEC’s existing institutional mechanism. This body undertakes the preparatory work for the Ministerial Meeting and follows up its decisions between the sessions of the Ministerial Meeting. In practice though, different mechanisms have evolved over a period of time which is unique to each sector. Trade and investment sector has a full-blown institutional structure with Trade and Economic Ministers’ Meeting, Senior Trade and Economic Officials Meeting, Trade Negotiating Committee (TNC) and a host of working groups under TNC are engaged in various areas of FTA negotiations. In some important sectors like transport and communication, counter-terrorism and trans-nationalcrime (CTTC) and agriculture, functions are conducted by working groups/expert groups without the existence of Ministerial or Senior Officials Meetings. Although deliberation on counter-terrorism and trans-nationalcrime (CTTC) has been upgraded to the level of nationalsecurity chiefs with effect from 2017, most member states do not appear to have a nationalsecurity chief in the real sense of the term. Furthermore, issues like CTTC, illicit drug trafficking, human trafficking etc. fall under the jurisdiction of Home Ministry of most member states.

The Bangkok Declaration also stipulated that BIMSTEC maintain close and beneficial cooperation with existing international and regional organisations with similar aims and purposes. Other than limited cooperation with ADB for conducting study in the transport sector and for the secretariat infrastructure, no serious attempt in this regard has been made. Common dialogue forum amongst BIMSTEC and various other regional, multilateral organisations/funding institutions could push the cause of BIMSTEC and give it much needed and greater visibility. The increasing global attention towards the emerging Indo-Pacific community is expected to present before BIMSTEC an opportunity to attract external funding for the region’s common infrastructure development.

Status of BIMSTEC Centres/Institutions

During the last 25 years, BIMSTEC has taken initiatives to establish a number of centres and institutions, the most important one being the establishment of a permanent secretariat in Dhaka. The others include the BIMSTEC Energy Centre (BEC), the BIMSTEC Weather and Climate Centre, BIMSTEC Cultural Industry Observatory (BCIO), BIMSTEC Technology Transfer Facility (TTF), BIMSTEC Tourism Information Centre, BIMSTEC Tourism Fund, BIMSTEC Centre for Poverty Alleviation. Operations of these centres/institutions have been hampered by lack of appropriate financing mechanism.

SAARC’s experience shows that the creation of centres and institutions alone do not necessarily help enhanced and effective regional cooperation. Some of the centres created by SAARC have become ineffective or are non-performing.  Even the experience of ASEAN has been mixed as far as the creation and running of centres is concerned. In the case of BIMSTEC, a more cautious approach is advisable because a proliferation of centres/institutions may lead to additional financial burden for member states, constitute expansion of the secretariat in various forms and locations, and give rise to problem of coordination of BIMSTEC activities.  One solution could be that the existing centre(s) located in the lead country of a sector can be declared as BIMSTEC Centre whose coordination and administration will remain with the nodal ministry while a part or whole of the service produced by the Centre will be dedicated to the benefit of all member states of BIMSTEC. This will spare the organisation from creating new administrative structures and funding arrangements.

Enhancing Visibility of BIMSTEC

The last two and a half decades has shown that BIMSTEC’s visibility remains relatively low, both within the region and more so, beyond. The Goa Leaders’ Retreat of 2016 was a high-profile event that brought BIMSTEC to the attention of the international community. Sustained political commitment on the part of member states and some immediate achievements that can bring visible benefit to the peoples of this region will contribute meaningfully in changing the picture. The establishment of BIMSTEC Network of Policy Think Tanks (BNPTT) is a welcome initiative to reach out to scholars and opinion builders. A forum for the media of the member countries could play a major role in assuring greater awareness among the population. Establishment of BIMSTEC Parliamentarians’ Forum, establishment of BIMSTEC Network of Universities, facilitated movement of businessmen and tourists, introduction of BIMSTEC scholarships by public/private universities, special visa arrangements for travel within BIMSTEC countries, holding of BIMSTEC cultural festivals could be some effective means to enhance the visibility and relevance of BIMSTEC among the citizens of the member states.  The Covid pandemic has highlighted the crucial importance of enhanced cooperation on the health sector, both in the preventive and curative regime, as much on the research domain. Enhanced cooperation and collaboration in this sector could bring tangible benefits.

Recommendations

In order to make BIMSTEC stronger, more effective and result-oriented, the following recommendations could be considered:

Recommendations on developing legal framework of cooperation

1. Redouble efforts to complete the initial phase of laying down legal framework to carry out cooperation in core areas like trade, investment, connectivity, security and energy.
2. Declaration or other non-binding form of documents may be resorted to when member states are not ready to enter into formal agreement on a specific subject.

Recommendations on project-based cooperation

1. Identify and implement development projects in such areas as agriculture, fisheries, technology, public health, tourism, climate change, blue economy etc.
2. Encourage pluri-lateral project implementation arrangements with the provision that those member states that did not initially join such arrangement, may do so at a later stage.
3. Develop guidelines for financing project-based cooperation

Recommendations to rationalise institutional mechanism

1. As the pivot of BIMSTEC institutional mechanism, SOM may hold special meetings, as and when necessary, in addition to the existing two meetings per annum.
2. Harmonise, to the extent possible, all sectoral institutional mechanism, and hold sectoral meetings regularly and at the designated level.
3. Upgrade Counter-terrorism and Trans-National Crime (CTTC) sector mechanism to the level of Home Ministers.
4. Empower National Focal Points to effectively coordinate BIMSTEC matters at the national level.
5. Review the role and function of Lead Country

Recommendations on rationalisation of sectors of cooperation

1. Reduce the number of sectors by merging interrelated sectors where appropriate.
2. Merge Environment and Disaster Management and Climate Change as one sector.
3. Merge Agriculture and Fisheries as one sector with emphasis on food security.
4. Include Human Resource Development as a stand-alone sector of cooperation

Recommendations on financing of BIMSTEC activities

1. Develop guidelines for financing studies/projects with BIMSTEC’s own resources.
2. Develop guideline for funding project-based cooperation with external funding.
3. Introduce program budget for BIMSTEC with Member States’ own resources.
4. Authorize the Secretary General to explore extra-budgetary resources from external sources and private sector in line with approved guidelines

Recommendations on establishment of BIMSTEC Centres/institutions

1. Keep the number of centres/institutions limited so as not to create additional financial burden for member states.
2. Wherever appropriate, existing centre(s) in the Lead Country may be declared as parallel BIMSTEC Centre, with the nodal ministry doing necessary coordination without creating new administrative and financing mechanism.
3. Hold the next meeting of BIMSTEC Joint Working Group, as soon as possible, to develop guidelines for the operational structure and financing of BIMSTEC Centres

Recommendations on enhancing visibility of BIMSTEC

1. Establish BIMSTEC Parliamentarians’ Forum.
2. Establish BIMSTEC Network of Universities.
3. Introduce BIMSTEC business visa scheme.
4. Introduce BIMSTEC scholarships by various universities.
5. Introduce BIMSTEC visa mechanism.
6. Establish a BIMSTEC media forum.
7. Hold BIMSTEC cultural festival regularly.
8. Strengthen BIMSTEC Secretariat.

As the BIMSTEC process enters the second half of its third decade, concrete and visible progress on various sectors of cooperation must be made to uphold the organisation’s credibility and relevance. With the support of the Member States, it is reasonable to expect the following to be achieved in the short and long term future:

• Continue work of Trade Negotiating Committee (TNC) with greater urgency to ensure progress on FTA negotiations.
• Continue the work of the JWG to make progress on guidelines for BIMSTEC centres/institutions.
• Conclude Agreement on Cooperation and Mutual Assistance in Customs Matters.
• Conclude BIMSTEC Coastal Shipping Agreement.
• Conclude MOU on BIMSTEC Grid Interconnection.
• Focus on effective execution of the Technology Transfer Facility(TTF).
• Make progress on BIMSTEC Motor Vehicle Agreement.
• Make progress on Trade Facilitation Agreement.
• Make progress on Agreement on Trade in Goods.
• Make progress on Agreement on Trade in Services.
• Monitor the effective implementation of the BIMSTEC Convention on Cooperation in Combating International Terrorism, Transnational Organised Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking.
• Focus on effective implementation of the recently signed BIMSTEC Convention on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal matters.
• Hold meetings of two newly created sub-groups under Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime sector.
• Ensure visible progress of the BIMSTEC Master Plan on Transport Connectivity.
• Initiate BIMSTEC Grid Interconnection Master Plan Study.
• Establish a forum for Parliamentarians as part of generating people-to-people contact.
• Finalise Terms of Reference for BIMSTEC Network of Policy Think Tanks.
• Create an Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG).
• Resume discussion on BIMSTEC Business Visa Scheme and BIMSTEC Travel Card.
• Initiate discussion on communications connectivity (e.g., broadband connectivity) as a sub-sector of Transport and Communications sector.
• Put in place formalised structure for Blue Economy as a sector/sub-sector with identification of Lead Country/Chair Country, Terms of Reference, relevant project identification and financing etc.
• Continue meetings of BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs.
• Hold BIMSTEC Cultural festival on a regular basis in the member states.

Challenges and Conclusion

The recently concluded 5^th BIMSTEC Summit meeting held in Colombo after a Covid enforced two-year delay and conducted virtually, was a significant step forward. The theme of the Summit gathering was “Towards a Resilient Region, Prosperous Economies, Healthy People”.

The key takeaways from the summit meeting included the signing of three important agreements, viz, the BIMSTEC Convention on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters, the BIMSTEC Memorandum of Understanding on Mutual Cooperation in the field of Diplomatic Training and the Memorandum of Association on Establishment of BIMSTEC Technology Transfer facility. The Summit also witnessed the Adoption and signing of the BIMSTEC Charter. This particular instrument would facilitate putting in place a set of rules, a framework and long-term goals for the organisation. This will help streamlining the operations of BIMSTEC and at the same time allow the organisation to enhance its potential.

The ‘Master Plan for Transport Connectivity’ was also adopted at the Summit. This lays out a guidance framework for connectivity-related activities in the region in the years ahead.

There can be no denying that setting up legal frame works and related institutions gives BIMSTEC necessary structures. The challenge that remains for the member countries is reaching the goals and dividends from BIMSTEC to the population in the region. There is a perceptible sense of scepticism among the current generation about the full usefulness of institutionalised regional collaborative bodies in delivering tangible benefits. The stagnation of SAARC and a not so cohesive ASEAN has served to reinforce such suspicions. Many see larger benefits being derived from deliverable bilateral, or sub-regional, arrangements. The ever-growing Bangladesh-India multimodal connectivity arrangements, for example, serves as a strong case in point. The same can be said about the emerging power and energy grid connectivity between Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Bhutan. It must, however, be noted that BIMSTEC does not intend to be an alternative to bilateral arrangements, instead it can complement such arrangements

For BIMSTEC, the challenge is heightened by the fact that it is a trans-regional organisation when one looks at the land mass and the demographic composition it covers. Its major geographical cementing element is the massive water body, the Bay of Bengal, arguably the largest Bay on planet earth. Hence the importance of leveraging the blue economy potential the Bay offers in promoting business linkages, focussing on trade and investment. Geo-politically, this maritime linkage has the potential to place BIMSTEC, as a body, and the member countries individually, in the much larger and strategically important Indo-Pacific and the Asia-Pacific theatre. This is all the more significant in an emerging multi-polar Asia and a shifting global order where ostensive national and strategic goals are being often pursued in a military form and with an equally military intensity.

However, at the end of the day, one wants to see and feel the tangible economic benefits and commercial opportunities that BIMSTEC can bring home. This is best achieved in an atmosphere of cohesion, compromise and concession. Ensuring such an atmosphere and achieving this triple goal poses the biggest challenge for BIMSTEC. It is, nonetheless, a work in progress and with the right political commitment, this should be achievable.

Building Brand BIMSTEC is also a major challenge, especially when one has to navigate through the growing marshes of scepticism, as mentioned earlier. It must be remembered that BIMSTEC is NOT a factory manufactured product whose brand value could be built through flashy commercials on the television screens. It is much more of an abstract form which needs to take a concrete shape. In building Brand BIMSTEC, three areas can play a major, and perhaps a decisive role. These are namely, multimodal connectivity leading to movement of people, goods and services throughout the region, educational linkages and sustained civil society and media interactions.

While connectivity is getting the needed focus, it is in the area of systematic and institutionalised educational linkages and civil society and media interactions that has to take a sustained form. A more specific approach in the field of educational linkages can be achieved by instituting something like a BIMSTEC Scholarship programme. Under this scheme, each member country will offer six graduate or post-graduate scholarships every year to aspirants from the other member countries. The fields of study can be varied but the procedures and the educational standards has to be uniform. Over a period of time, recipients of such scholarship programme can emerge as the best Brand Ambassadors for BIMSTEC. Investment in this field will not be wasted exercise.

In the prevailing situation, activities of civil societies have seen a significant growth, as has the outreach and role of the media. Sustained interactions between and among them within the BIMSTEC members will contribute immensely to building Brand BIMSTEC. Civil society groups and the media usually are not confined by forms; they can create their own. This enables them to enhance their scope and mode of work in a more flexible manner and without interference. In the end, they can contribute in a major way to promoting BIMSTEC in the region. Much, of course, will depend on how much freedom they are allowed to carry on their desired tasks. Needless to say, within BIMSTEC, civil society and media freedom is not granted in a uniform manner. Nevertheless, even if it remains limited to a majority of the member countries, the message of BIMSTEC can be spread to a larger section of the population in the region. Creating a BIMSTEC Network of Policy Think Tanks (BNPTT) can be a good starting point but the exercise need not be limited to its scope.

The Goa retreat of BIMSTEC leaders in October 2016 was a shining example that in a changed world, gatherings of leaders in an air of informality can be highly productive. This is worth replicating. As stated earlier in this essay, BIMSTEC is a continuous work in progress, but it is a promising undertaking. The task now is to remain focussed and look at the larger canvass that the Asia-Pacific region offers in a fast-changing world. It is perhaps also time to consider widening BIMSTEC’s membership to include the Maldives, and even Malaysia and Indonesia. This will further resonate the calls for a focus on the potential of blue economy.

Author Brief Bio: Shamsher M. Chowdhury, Bir Bikram, graduated as a Regular Commissioned Army officer in 1969. He took active part in the Bangladesh War of Liberation in 1971. For his bravery in the battlefield the Government of Bangladesh conferred on him the gallantry award Bir Bikram. In December 1974, the service of Shamsher M Chowdhury, BB was transferred to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a career Foreign Service Officer. Mr. Chowdhury served as the High Commissioner of Bangladesh to Sri Lanka, Ambassador to the Federal Republic of Germany, Vietnam and the United States of America.He was Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh from 2001 to 2005.

Introduction

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) took nearly 25 years from its inception in June 1997 to equip itself with a charter that defines its long-term vision and priorities for cooperation among its seven member-states. These are India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand. The grouping completed this task admirably on 30 March 2022 when the charter was formally adopted at the fifth summit, held virtually in Colombo. The charter expresses the shared commitment of member countries to make BIMSTEC “a dynamic, effective and result-oriented regional organisation for promoting a peaceful, prosperous and sustainable Bay of Bengal region”,^[1] a goal to be achieved through greater cooperation and “deeper integration.”^[2]

The three noteworthy features of this carefully crafted formulation are: BIMSTEC is now a regional organisation, not a sub-regional one as often mentioned earlier; it is oriented towards and identified with the Bay of Bengal region; and clearly the achievement of its purposes will require more regional cooperation and integration than what exists at present.

This essay, composed for a compendium to underline the achievements and prospects of BIMSTEC during its 25^th anniversary year, argues that the vital regional grouping needs to ensure continuity with past efforts to strengthen economic cooperation and also be innovative to realise its potential in newer areas such as the Blue Economy. Only then will BIMSTEC be viewed as an institution developing in consonance with the ethos and temper of the 21^st century. The linkage between these two facets demands speedy progress in securing a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA), work on which began over two decades ago, as well as fulfilling expectations built up since 2016, regarding maritime security and sustainable cooperation based on maritime resources.

It is, therefore, necessary to trace the trajectory of dialogue and policy development concerning the Blue Economy; examine the present state of play regarding the finalisation of arrangements to expand and deepen economic cooperation; explain the pivotal importance of multidimensional connectivity for both facets; and make recommendations for the consideration of policymakers. The overarching objective is to stress that BIMSTEC has the potential to transform itself into an effective tool of regional cooperation by the end of the current decade if it strives hard enough and is driven by strong political will.

BIMSTEC and the Blue Economy

Meaning, trajectory

The Blue Economy, a relatively new concept that transcends the ‘Ocean economy,’ represents the totality of water-related activities and resources—lakes, rivers, bays, coastal regions, seas and oceans—which need sustainable development to meet the growing needs of an expanding world population. When the planet’s population increases from 7.8 billion in 2020 to 9.9 billion by 2050, land-based resources will not be enough. The dependence on oceanic resources will increase for food, medicines, energy and other requirements. It is imperative to protect the oceans and their biodiversity with immediate effect and utilise their vast assets sustainably. Some oceanic areas have already become the locus of several inter-state disputes and the source of insecurity of diverse kinds.

The Blue Economy, therefore, should be viewed in terms of three interlinked pillars—security, sustainability, and productivity. Their optimal development demands a synthesis of knowledge and cooperation with navies and coast guards, with diplomats, officials and legal experts, and with scientists, researchers, business leaders and entrepreneurs.

At the UN Conference on Sustainable Development held in 2012, special attention was paid to creating a global institutional framework for sustainable development through the ‘Green Economy.’ The Small Island Developing States (SIDS), in this context, requested a focus to be placed on their special interests, insisting on the incorporation of provisions for better adaptation mechanisms for coastal and sea resource-based countries. This brought into salience the ‘Green Economy in a Blue World’ or the Blue Economy itself. SDG 14^[3] became the bedrock of guidelines that would determine global policy on this subject.

Thus began a growing consciousness about the Blue Economy and the shaping of public policy and discourse in the member countries of BIMSTEC, even before it seeped into the lexicon of BIMSTEC, the organisation. India led the way through Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s famous speech in 2015 propounding the concept of ‘SAGAR’ (Security and Growth for All in the Region).^[4] The five constituent elements of ‘SAGAR’ offer a blueprint for collective action and coordination in the broader Indian Ocean region.^[5]  Bangladesh emerged as an ardent advocate of the Blue Economy, given its pivotal position in the Bay of Bengal and the dependence of its economy on the fisheries sector. It hosted an international workshop on the Blue Economy in Dhaka in September 2014, the precursor of a series of national and international level deliberations in subsequent years. Sri Lanka, with its unique position on the maritime transportation map of the Indian Ocean, has been active in thinking about and planning appropriate cooperation measures from fisheries to marine tourism, from sea transportation to ocean energy. Thailand has been a leader in its own right, playing a significant role within the ASEAN family and beyond to realise the opportunities of this ecosystem.

From Goa to Kathmandu

It was no surprise that when the historic Retreat of BIMSTEC Leaders was convened by India in Goa in October 2016, the Blue Economy found prominent mention in the outcome document:

We recognise the enormous potential that the development of the blue economy holds for our region, and agree to explore ways to deepen our cooperation in areas such as aquaculture (both inland and coastal), hydrography, seabed mineral exploration, coastal shipping, eco-tourism and renewable ocean energy to promote holistic and sustainable development of our region.^[6]

The document stressed the importance of cooperation for the sustainable development of fisheries for food security, as “the Bay of Bengal region is home to over thirty percent of the world’s fishermen.”^[7] The leaders agreed to derive benefits from the mountain regions for sustainable development. Obviously, rivers form the bridge between the mountains and oceans, and between the mountain economy and the Blue Economy.

The fourth summit in Kathmandu in August 2018 projected BIMSTEC as a regional organisation that was geared to advance “Towards a Peaceful, Prosperous and Sustainable Bay of Bengal.” Its outcome document contained clear-cut formulations on mountain economy and fisheries-related cooperation. But its two paragraphs on the Blue Economy in the section named ‘Sectoral Review’ were truly significant and forward-looking. Therein, the leaders acknowledged the hosting of the International Blue Economy Conference by Bangladesh in 2017. They agreed to:

Emphasise the importance of blue economy and agree to cooperate in this sector for the sustainable development in the region and decide to establish an Inter-governmental Expert Group to develop an action plan on blue economy, keeping in mind the special needs and circumstances of the landlocked Member States.^[8]

The subsequent fifth summit in Colombo simply reiterated the instruction to the ministers, officials and the Secretariat to ensure “prompt implementation” of its directives, including on the Blue Economy.^[9]

Between the Goa Retreat and the Colombo Summit, much has been activated in the Blue Economy, regionally and internationally. India’s focus has been on Sagarmala, the flagship mega programme for the expansion and modernisation of ports and port-related-infrastructure; crafting of a policy framework through a draft policy on the Blue Economy^[10] and a series of diplomatic initiatives to promote cooperation with diverse entities ranging from the IORA, ASEAN, and the Quad to Norway, the EU and France. Encompassing the overarching Indo-Pacific model, New Delhi released its Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI), mentioned in Prime Minister Modi’s speech at the East Asia summit in November 2019.^[11] Through its seven holistic pillars, it covers various aspects of the Blue Economy and maritime security. The pillars and their leads identified so far, are: i) maritime security (India), ii) maritime ecology (Australia), iii) maritime resources (France and Indonesia), iv) capacity building and resource sharing (lead country pending), v) disaster risk reduction and management (India), vi) science, technology and academic cooperation (lead pending), and vii) trade, connectivity and maritime transport (Japan).”^[12]

Despite some members of BIMSTEC thinking seriously about the Blue Economy, the grouping has done little so far to promote regional cooperation in any tangible manner. But now that it has set in motion its plan for institutional reform, it can move forward in newer areas.

Trade and Investment

In contrast to the Blue Economy as a new domain, trade and investment represent a traditional area of regional cooperation on which BIMSTEC has worked since its inception in 1997. The signing of the framework agreement in 2004 raised hopes of an early breakthrough in concluding a viable, comprehensive FTA, but it did not follow. Nearly two decades of negotiations have made only modest progress. Of the seven constituent agreements of the FTA, just two are ready: the agreement on dispute settlement procedures and mechanism, and the protocol to amend the framework agreement. Negotiations for five agreements remain inconclusive so far. These are agreements on trade in goods; cooperation and mutual assistance in customs matters; trade in services; investment; and trade facilitation.^[13]

Whether the reiteration of the Leaders’ directives at the Colombo summit will motivate the officials to expedite matters, remains debatable, if not doubtful. This is because much has changed in the BIMSTEC region in the past two decades. Pratim Ranjan Bose, an analyst, explains that the record of negotiations does not build confidence. The region’s experience with SAFTA, the widespread perception that FTAs lose jobs at home, the unwillingness of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to open their economies to Indian competition, and India’s lack of enthusiasm to further open up its market to Thailand, have been among the factors holding up the FTA negotiations.^[14] In addition, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, to which Thailand and Myanmar are signatories but India is not, has complicated matters. Finally, there is a growing realisation in the region that in the absence of extensive infrastructure connectivity, trade and investment flows cannot really grow.

In view of the above, BIMSTEC has no choice but to take a hard, realistic look at the current state of play regarding FTA negotiations as well as step up efforts to expand the multidimensional connectivity that links member states seamlessly through developed road, rail, air, shipping, digital and energy networks. This, say researchers NilanjanBanit and Aparna Sharma, will raise intra-BIMSTEC trade, stuck at 7% of total trade to an impressive macro figure.^[15]

Policy Suggestions

Advocates of BIMSTEC believe that it has a promising future. “The Bay of Bengal,” says an academic, “is evolving as the centre of the Indo-Pacific region again.”^[16] A serious endeavour is essential to translate intentions and declarations into action, as recommended below:

Blue Economy

• Speedy action to establish an Inter-governmental Expert Group for an action plan on the Blue Economy. It should be multi-disciplinary, factoring in all relevant developments in recent years as also the special needs of all member states and present a plan for concrete results.
• A full-fledged presentation on IPOI should be made before a representative gathering of officials from various ministries of the BIMSTEC countries. The goal should be to optimally associate BIMSTEC with this ambitious initiative.
• Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Myanmar should be invited to make detailed presentations on their national plans, achievements and best practices relating to the Blue Economy before a representative gathering of officials in the BIMSTEC governments.
• The Bay of Bengal waters wash the shores of three countries that are not members of BIMSTEC: Maldives, Malaysia and Indonesia. It is necessary to involve them in BIMSTEC’s endeavours to develop various dimensions of the Blue Economy, especially fisheries, marine tourism, coastal shipping ecosystems, and maritime security.
• A regional mechanism should be created for practical cooperation among BIMSTEC members in the research and management of “maritime trade, shipping, aquaculture and tourism” as well as to strengthen the fisheries sector and protect it against pollution, minimizing the impact of climate change.^[17]
• A vision document, encompassing all facets of cooperation in the Blue Economy for the next 25 years, should be prepared. An applicable template is the ‘India-France Roadmap on the Blue Economy and Ocean Governance.’^[18]

Trade and Investment

• Decide whether BIMSTEC’s business community needs a comprehensive FTA or not. An apex industry chamber in India, FICCI, undertook a perception survey and reported in January 2018 that businesses favoured an early conclusion of the FTA.^[19]A repeat of this exercise throughout the region is necessary and will be fruitful
• Progress on connectivity has been held up in the absence of relevant legal instruments. Their finalization should be a priority.
• Implementation of the Master Plan for Transport Connectivity should be thought through properly, with periodic reviews at the ministerial level.
• Existing mechanisms like the Business Forum and the Economic Forum should be activated for optimal results in strengthening trade and investment linkages.

Conclusion

There is no dearth of ideas on how to transform BIMSTEC into an effective instrument of regional integration. What is now needed is active supervision by the political leadership of measures taken and progress achieved; the full commitment of bureaucracies; the engagement of business and industry; and a sustained and visible watch by an informed citizenry.

The combined endeavour should be to make BIMSTEC a model platform for cooperation in the Bay of Bengal region before the current decade ends. This needs collective political will.^[20]

Author Brief Bio: Rajiv Bhatia is Distinguished Fellow, Gateway House and former Ambassador to Myanmar. He headed the BSM division in the Ministry of External Affairs, which handled India’s relations with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Maldives. As Chair of FICCI’s Task Force on Blue Economy and Chair of FICCI’s Core Group of Experts on BIMSTEC, he supervised and contributed to the crafting of three Knowledge Papers published in April 2017, January 2018 and December 2019.

References

^[1] BIMSTEC Charter. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1imTXMnsLg3ostI-kN8E5L6CeRyMWrGhh/view

^[2] Ibid.

^[3] Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development. https://sdgs.un.org/goals/goal14

^[4] ‘Text of the PM’s remarks on the Commissioning of Coast Ship Barracuda’, PMINDIA. https://www.pmindia.gov.in/en/news_updates/text-of-the-pms-remarks-on-the-commissioning-of-coast-ship-barracuda/

^[5] For details, see Rajiv Bhatia, India–Africa Relations: Changing Horizons, Oxon & New York, Routledge, 2022. P. 118

^[6] ‘BIMSTEC Leaders’ Retreat Outcome Document and 16-Point Agenda of Action, Goa, India, 16 October 2016’, BIMSTEC.https://bimstec.org/?page_id=3812

^[7] Ibid.

^[8] ‘Fourth BIMSTEC Summit Declaration, Kathmandu, Nepal, 30-31 August 2018’. https://bimstec.org/?page_id=3812

^[9] ‘Fifth BIMSTEC Summit Declaration, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30 March 2022’. https://bimstec.org/?page_id=3812

^[10] ‘India’s Blue Economy: A Draft Policy Framework’, Economic Advisory Council to The Prime Minister Government of India, New Delhi, September 2020. P. 12. https://incois.gov.in/documents/Blue_Economy_policy.pdf

^[11] ‘Prime Minister’s Speech at the East Asia Summit, 04 November 2019’. Ministry of External Affairs, 4 November 2019. https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/32171/Prime_Ministers_Speech_at_the_East_Asia_Summit_04_November_2019

^[12] Keynote Address by Ms. Riva Ganguly Das, Secretary (East), Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India at the National Consultations on Indo- Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI), 3 September 2021. https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=1&ls_id=6877&lid=4682

^[13] ‘Trade, Investment and Development’, BIMSTEC. https://bimstec.org/?page_id=6124

^[14]Pratim Ranjan Bose, ‘The Relevance of BIMSTEC FTA in View of New Realities’, in Sreeradha Datta (ed) BIMSTEC: The Journey and The Way Ahead, New Delhi, Pentagon Press LLP, 2021. Pp. 227–250

^[15]NilanjanBanik and Aparna Sharma, ‘Trade Potentiality in BIMSTEC’, Briefing Paper, CUTS, No. 1/2015. https://cuts-citee.org/pdf/Briefing_Paper15-Trade_Potentiality_in_BIMSTEC.pdf

^[16] Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, ‘Bridging the bay in quest of a stronger BIMSTEC’, The Hindu, 30 March 2022.

^[17]VenuRajamony, ‘A subregional grouping that must get back on course’, The Hindu, 29 March 2022.

^[18] ‘India-France Roadmap on The Blue Economy and Ocean Governance’, Ministry of External Affairs, 20 February 2022. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/34882/INDIAFRANCE_ROADMAP_ON_THE_BLUE_ECONOMY_AND_OCEAN_GOVERNANCE

^[19] FICCI Core Group, ‘Reinvigorating BIMSTEC: An Industry Vision for the Next Decade’, Knowledge Paper, New Delhi, FICCI, January 2018.

^[20]Probal K. Ghosh, ‘BIMSTEC: a Potential Arena of Maritime Convergences and Capacity Building’, in Sreeradha Datta (ed) BIMSTEC: The Journey and The Way Ahead, New Delhi, Pentagon Press LLP, 2021. P. 317.

Introduction

In the light of the decision of the Fourth BIMSTEC Summit of 2018, building on the 1997 Bangkok Declaration, defining a long-term vision and priorities for cooperation, clearly delineating roles, and responsibilities of different layers of institutional structure and decision-making processes, the BIMSTEC Charter, the Legal and Institutional Framework for BIMSTEC, is adopted at Colombo on the occasion of the Fifth BIMSTEC Summit, on 30 March 2022. It is now time for India to progress on manifesting its principle of Security & Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR), establishing Prime Minister Modi’s vision as a Bridge of Connectivity, Prosperity & Security. Through this, India can prove to the world the power of its people and the inherent capabilities in its eminent leadership to create a new world order.

Prime Minister Modi’s Address at the 5^th BIMSTEC Summit

The Prime Minister stated that BIMSTEC completing 25 years is a major milestone. In sync with his leadership values, he desired to make BIMSTEC more active and give greater priority to regional security. He expressed happiness at the BIMSTEC Charter being adopted, which was an important step towards creating an institutional architecture. He reiterated the Secretary General’s suggestion towards constituting an Eminent Persons Group to prepare a vision document and also agreed to increase the capacity of the Secretariat further, suggesting that the Secretary General may prepare a road map for the achievement of this goal. With this in view, he stated that India will provide financial assistance of USD one million to increase the operational budget of the Secretariat. He spoke of enhancing mutual trade between nations in the region and stated that it was necessary to make speedy progress on the proposal of BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement adopting international norms in the field of Trade Facilitation. He further emphasised the need to enhance exchanges between the entrepreneurs and startups of the BIMSTEC countries.

Adopting BIMSTEC’s Master Plan for Transport Connectivity, Shri Narendra Modi said that the mainstay of better integration, better trade, and better people-to-people relations is better connectivity. Simultaneously, one has to move forward on the already ongoing initiatives in the field of connectivity like Coastal Shipping Eco-system in the Bay of Bengal, and implement the electricity grid interconnectivity. He laid emphasis on the development of the BIMSTEC Center for Weather and Climate for cooperation on disaster management, especially on disaster risk reduction, stating that India is ready to contribute USD 3 million to restart the work of this centre. Achieving Sustainable Development Goals related to quality education is an important part of the national policies of BIMSTEC countries. Towards that end he proposed to promote joint research on Marine Sciences. As the agriculture sector is the core economy of all BIMSTEC countries, he proposed to create regional value chains of value-added agricultural products.

Laying stress on security, Shri Narendra Modi said it was fundamental to ensure the prosperity and development of the region. Towards that end, he called for increased cooperation between the BIMSTEC law enforcement agencies.He also expressed satisfaction at the Convention to Combat Terrorism having become active since last year and on BIMSTEC member countries having signed the Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty on Criminal Matters. He recapitulated that at the 4th Summit in Kathmandu, it was decided to strengthen the regional legal framework against terrorism, trans-national crime, and non-traditional threats and said that now, emphasis must be laid on the development of a legal framework for increasing road connectivity and coastal shipping. Prime Minister Modi concluded his remarks with an expression of heartfelt concern about the BIMSTEC member countries facing the challenges of health and economic security and called for solidarity and cooperation as the need of the hour. He reinforced his vision of making Bay of Bengal, a bridge of connectivity, a bridge of Prosperity, and a bridge of Security.India’s External Affairs Minister, ShriS. Jaishankar, who had spoken a day earlier, had stated that for the BIMSTEC member countries, achieving SDG 14 targets and ensuring a ‘good order at sea’ in keeping with international maritime law, particularly UNCLOS is a priority. He suggested that a practical way to proceed is to have discussions using existing dialogue mechanisms, even while putting in place a plan of action in the maritime domain which is consistent with the national priorities. He contemplated on the fact that the science of oceans is not easy, stating that India is keen to develop platforms and initiatives that can enhance collaboration between the scientist and experts in the maritime domain. With respect to BIMSTEC, Shri S. Jaishankar stated that India will bring to bear all relevant policies and approaches; one, as Neighbourhood First, give it the utmost priority; two, in consonance with the SAGAR outlook, realise its full maritime potential; and three, as a first responder, be it on HADR situations, Covid or economic recovery, be there at critical times for all.

The Essence of the BIMSTEC Charter

The peoples of the Member States of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), represented by the Heads of State or Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Kingdom of Bhutan, the Republic of India, the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, Nepal, the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, and the Kingdom of Thailand have reaffirmed their firm commitment to the principles and purposes of BIMSTEC as enshrined in the 1997 Bangkok Declaration through the Preamble of this Charter.

The Memorandum of Association (MOA) on the Establishment of the BIMSTEC Permanent Secretariat, done at Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar on 04 March 2014 has been recognised in this Charter. The Headquarters Agreement between the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh and the Secretariat of the BIMSTEC done at Dhaka, Bangladesh on 01 November 2015 also stands recognised in the Preamble of this Charter.

It is an accepted underlying principle that the geographical contiguity, abundant natural and human resources, historical linkages and rich cultural heritage present great potential for promoting deeper cooperation in identified core areas in the region; It is acknowledged that enhanced inter-linkages and inter-dependence within the economies and societies in the BIMSTEC Member States provide greater opportunity to advance regional cooperation and recognise the special needs and circumstances of the least developed and landlocked developing countries in the region, providing meaningful support to their development process. There is the need towards a strong commitment to making BIMSTEC a dynamic, effective, and result-oriented regional organisation for promoting a peaceful, prosperous, and sustainable Bay of Bengal Region through collective efforts, meaningful cooperation, and deeper integration. It is important to stress the need for a fair, just, equitable and transparent international order and reaffirm the faith in the multilateralism with the United Nations at the Centre and the rule-based international trading system. India can make commendable contribution manifesting its ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ and effective leadership in the region.

Parties to dispute may request the Chairman of BIMSTEC, to provide good offices, conciliation and mediation to settle any dispute arising out of the interpretation or implementation of the Charter. Member States shall endeavour to resolve peacefully all disputes in a timely manner through dialogue, consultation and negotiation.

Recalling the decision of the Fourth BIMSTEC Summit of 2018 to begin the process of drafting the Charter for the organisation, building on the 1997 Bangkok Declaration, defining a long-term vision and priorities for cooperation, clearly delineating roles and responsibilities of different layers of institutional structure and decision-making processes the legal and  institutional framework for BIMSTEC was established through its Charter; And to this end, the Heads of State or Government of BIMSTEC Member States, assembled in Colombo on the occasion of the Fifth BIMSTEC Summit,  and have agreed to this Charter on 30March 2022.

The Member States of BIMSTEC shall have equal rights and obligations under this Charter. They shall take all measures they deem necessary, including enactment of appropriate domestic legislations to effectively implement provisions of this Charter and to comply with all obligations of membership.

The Purpose of the BIMSTEC

It is the purpose of the BIMSTEC:

1. to create an enabling environment for rapid economic development through identification and implementation of specific cooperation projects in the already agreed areas of cooperation and such other areas that may be agreed upon by the Member States which may be subject to periodic review.
2. To accelerate the economic growth and social progress in the Bay of Bengal region through joint endeavours in a spirit of equality and partnership.
3. To promote active collaboration and mutual assistance on matters of common interest in the economic, social, technical, and scientific fields.
4. To provide assistance to each other in the form of training and research facilities in the educational, professional and technical spheres.
5. To cooperate more effectively in joint efforts that are supportive of and complementary to national development plans of the Member States which result in tangible benefits to the people in raising their living standards, including through generating employment and improving transportation and communication infrastructure.
6. To cooperate in projects that can be dealt with most productively on a regional basis among the BIMSTEC Member States and that make best use of available synergies.
7. To maintain peace and stability in the Bay of Bengal region through close collaboration in combating international terrorism, transnational organized crimes as well as natural disasters, climate change and communicable diseases.
8. To maintain close and beneficial cooperation with existing international and regional organizations with similar aims and purposes.
9. To endeavour to eradicate poverty from the Bay of Bengal region.
10. To establish multidimensional connectivity, promote synergy among connectivity frameworks in the region, as a key enabler to economic integration for shared prosperity.
11. To promote trade and investment as a major contributing factor for fostering economic and social development in the region.

BIMSTEC had initially focused on six sectors in 1997 to include trade, technology, energy, transport, tourism, and fisheries and expanded in 2008 to incorporate agriculture, public health, poverty alleviation, counterterrorism, environment, culture, people-to-people contact, and climate change.Subsequently, following steps to rationalise and reorganise sectors and sub-sectors, cooperation was reorganised in 2021 under the following sectors and sub-sectors led by the respective Member States:

• Bangladesh: Trade, Investment and Development
• Bhutan : Environment & Climate Change
• India: Security; Sub-sectors: Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime,   Disaster Management, Energy
• Myanmar : Agriculture and Food Security ; Sub-sectors : Agriculture, Fisheries & Livestock
• Nepal: People-to-People Contact, Sub-sectors: Culture, Tourism, People-to-People Contact  (forums of think tanks, media etc.)
• Sri Lanka : Science, Technology & Innovation, Sub-sectors :  Technology, Health, Human Resource Development
• Thailand: Connectivity

Certain Important Issues in BIMSTEC

The Bay of Bengal (Bay) is in the northeastern part of the Indian Ocean. It is bound by land on three sides; on the west and northwest by India on the north by Bangladesh, and on the east by Myanmar and the Andaman &Nicobar Islands of India. Its southern limit is a line between Sri Lanka and the northwestern-most point of Sumatra (Indonesia). Important ports on the Bay include Paradip, Kolkata, Haldia, Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Kakinada, Pondicherry, Dhamra, Gopalpur in India and Chittagong, Mongla, Payra Ports in Bangladesh.

There are impending problems in the Bay and the effective role that BIMSTEC should play in the governance of the Bay to improve upon the commercial viability of the Bay Economic Zone, minimise criminal activities and support the development of a sustainable Blue Economy in the region. BIMSTEC is also a desirable platform for India to manifest its foreign policy in the form of ‘Act East’ &‘Neighbourhood First’, Security & Growth for all In the Region (SAGAR) and Sagarmala. A regional legal cooperation to put into effect the regional aspirations of unity in diversity therefore should be a priority.

Since its inception in 1997, BIMSTEC had a slow pace of development for various reasons including political, economic, social, and cultural. The region, though united historically with a rich cultural heritage, but post decolonisation got impregnated with crimes like insurgency, terrorism, narcotics smuggling, trafficking, illegal immigration which prompted the member states to consider internal and border security issues on priority. The development plan got ignored in the process. The oceans were put on the back-burner. Except for addressing security issues, development of the blue economy of the Bay of Bengal never received the required thrust.

The maritime delimitation issue between India and Bangladesh and between Bangladesh and Myanmar having being resolved, the maritime zones presently are clearly marked in the Bay of Bengal in terms of jurisdiction. This also has defined the Areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) which should now prompt the member states of BIMSTEC to have laws and a regulatory mechanism to jointly and severally govern the Bay.

BIMSTEC leaders emphasised the importance of blue economy and agreed to cooperate in this sector for sustainable development of the region. They decided to establish an Inter-governmental Expert Group to develop an action plan on blue economy, keeping in mind the special needs and circumstances of the landlocked member states. The BIMSTEC leaders noted with satisfaction the hosting of International Blue Economy Conference in Bangladesh in 2017 with the participation of government representatives from BIMSTEC member states.

BIMSTEC not only connects South and South-East Asia, but also the ecologies of the Great Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal. With shared values, histories, ways of life, and destinies that are interlinked, BIMSTEC represents a common space for peace and sustainable development.

Though the Bay has been an intrinsic part of the economy of the BIMSTEC nations, Ocean governance has been a low priority issue for the member states. Whether it is rights of sovereignty in the territorial waters or sovereign rights in the EEZ or for that matter governance of ABNJ, the laws are very limited and hardly harmonised with the prevalent international legal regime. Most of these member states have outdated colonial laws still governing the waters of the region. The absence of laws has created enormous opportunities for the criminal elements to vitiate the peace and legal order in the waters, resulting in deeply entrenched negative mercantile practices dominated by unlawful influences.

The most affected industry is fishing in the region characterised by over exploitation of available catch. The Bay of Bengal has 475 different species of fish and 36 species of shrimps. In the 2017-18 fiscal year, 6.5 lakh ton of fish was produced from the Bay which is more than seven percent of the world’s catch. The major cross border issues that are affecting the fishing industry in the Bay amongst others include a declining trend in the overall availability of fish; changes in species composition of catches; the high proportion of half-grown fish in the catch; and changes in marine biodiversity, especially through loss of vulnerable and endangered species. Fishing overlaps national jurisdictions. This has been a sticky problem between India and Bangladesh and a slightly more serious issue between India and Sri Lanka. Countries are experiencing difficulties in implementing fisheries management, especially the ecosystem approach to fisheries.

The Bay of Bengal countries contribute significantly to the global problem of loss of vulnerable and endangered species and there is lack of implementation of suitable policies at State level. There is open access to fishing grounds. The governments of these surrounding countries emphasise on increasing fish catches because of high consumer demand for fish. There is inappropriate government subsidies provided to fisherfolk. Further, increasing fishing effort, especially from trawlers and purse seiners including for seed and fishmeal for aquaculture, ineffective fisheries management, illegal and destructive fishing further add to the woes of the fishing industry of the region. The number of fishing harbours and fish landing centres are proportionately much less. There are hardly any cold storage facilities for the fishing industry which leads to huge wastage of the catch. Most of the fisher families in the eastern coast of India live below the poverty line resulting in a very unsystematic functioning of the fishing industry in the region. This is where BIMSTEC needs to take the lead in effective governance for a sustainable development of the fishing industry as an integral part of the blue economy. Legal cooperation among member states to deliberate on resolving these issues is an absolute necessity.

The Bay of Bengal is an area of high biodiversity with many endangered and vulnerable species. The major cross border issues relating to habitats pertain to the loss and degradation of mangroves, coral reefs and the loss of and damage, to sea grasses. Climate change impacts are shared by all BIMSTEC member states. Other issues of concern within the Bay economy pertain to food security needs of the coastal poor, lack of coastal development plans, increasing trade in products from coastal habitats, coastal development and industrialisation, ineffective marine protected areas and lack of enforcement, upstream development that affects water-flow, intensive upstream agricultural practices, and increasing ad-hoc tourism. If these issues are not defined and managed systematically with a correct policy and a regulatory mechanism, they will start eating into the economy rather than resulting in development.

Pollution of the Bay is a very serious issue. Discharge of untreated/partially treated sewage, sewage and organic discharges from the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River, Sewage-borne pathogens and organic load, solid waste/marine litter, increasing nutrient inputs, oil pollution, persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and persistent toxic substances (PTSs), sedimentation, and heavy metals are destroying the ecology of the Bay. Plastics and derelict fishing gear can be transported long distances across oceans. Differences between countries with regard to regulation and enforcement of shipping discharges may drive discharges across the oceans. Tar balls are transported long distances. POPs/PTSs and mercury, including organo-mercury, undergo long-range transportation. Sedimentation and most heavy metal contamination tend to pollute locally. Increasing coastal population density and urbanisation, higher consumption, resulting in more waste generated per person, insufficient funds allocated to waste management, migration of industry and proliferation of small industries are related issues of serious magnitude that require impact assessment and regulation.

Seabed mining and exploitation of poly-metallic nodules are expected to resume in the near future. India, in accordance with its contract with the International Seabed Authority (ISA) is conducting exploration on the seabed in the central Indian Ocean basin. However, it is to be noted that poly-metallic nodules are also available on the seafloor in the areas of national jurisdiction of the BIMSTEC coastal countries. In the absence of regional technology to the BIMSTEC nations except for India, the BIMSTEC will have to specially look at this domain of exploitation of future resources on the seabed and draft a policy of possibility of coordination with the ISA in terms of technology transfer, protection of the marine environment, marine scientific research and related issues.

Besides commercial issues there are criminal activities that are persisting across the Bay. Terrorism, smuggling of drugs, human trafficking, smuggling of contraband items are a very common feature across the Bay. IUU (Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated) fishing in the EEZ of other member states has been a cause of tension between member states of the BIMSTEC.

The Fifth Summit and Way Forward

Problems in the Bay are both historical and as a result of recent global developments. Therefore, it has become all the more important for the BIMSTEC to draft a policy of legal cooperation amongst the member states for better governance of the Bay so that a sustainable Blue Economy can develop and increase the GDP of member states manifold.

BIMSTEC needs to effectively cooperate with the United Nations and other regional organisations to implement its goals and achieve necessary targets. The corporatization of the fishing industry in the region is very important so that the quality of the industry, the life of the fisherfolk and infrastructure with good cold storage facilities can be improved manifold. It is important for the private sector to get involved and more harbours and fish landing centres need to be constructed with immediate effect.

Marine tourism, which could add manifold to the revenue of the BIMSTEC countries, must be picked up with public-private participation. Single regional visas or inter country recognition of passports without visas should work for easy movement of people. Beach tourism and cruise tourism need to be developed amongst the member states. There are beautiful beaches and tourism sites in the entire region which requires to be promoted amongst the people in the region as well as the globe at large.

The unity in diversity which is a special attribute of the BIMSTEC nations can fully fructify only when there is peace and security in the region. Thus, BIMSTEC is expected to play a vital role in governance of the Bay and India has to assume a leadership role to give effect to its ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East Policy’ and absorb the development shock of the ingress of Belt and Road Initiative of China by a stronger and more evolved BIMSTEC with an improved governance of the Bay Economic Zone coupled with an established legal and regulatory framework in all aspects of economic development with a strong compliance guidelines to ensure enforcements.

Author Brief Bio:Dr. Madhumita Kothari is a legal academician teaching at various universities, writing research papers in the domain of her expertise and a Keynote Speaker at various national & international conferences. An award-winning Senior Legal Professional educated in the UK, Germany & India, she is presently, partner in HSA Advocates. She has 25 years of proven track record in the commercial sector across the areas of international commercial arbitration, dispute resolution, compliance and regulatory, international joint ventures, risk assessment & management, brand management, corporate communications, and cross-border transactions in Law of the Sea, shipping laws, energy, power, infrastructure, aviation, environment, artificial intelligence, mining, packaging, retail & education.

REFERENCES:

1. https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/35090/English_Translation_of_Remarks_by_Prime_Minister_Shri_Narendra_Modi_at_the_5th_BIMSTEC_Summit
2. https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/35088/Statement+by+External+Affairs+Minister+Dr+S+Jaishankar+at+the+BIMSTEC+Ministerial+Meeting
3. https://bimstec.org/
4. http://www.theindependentbd.com/post/164415
5. Indian Ministry of External Affairs, “Prime Minister’s Message on 20th Anniversary of Establishment of BIMSTEC,” June 6, 2017, http://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/28514/Prime_Ministers_message_on_20th_anniversary_of_establishment_of_BIMSTEC
6. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2017/06/06/blue-economy
7. http://thecommonwealth.org/blue-economy
8. https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/blog/2018/blue-economy-sustainable-ocean-economic-paradigm.html
9. https://www.iucn.org/theme/marine-and-polar/our-work/international-ocean-governance
10. https://thediplomat.com/2018/11/can-bimstec-finally-become-relevant/
11. https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/making-sense-of-indias-revived-interests-in-bimstec/
12. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/what-is-bimstec-and-why-is-it-important-for-india/story-SPT8asnufTPmW1kxG5PLaP.html
13. https://www.daily-sun.com/post/332913/Bimstec-leaders-to-cooperate-on-blue-economy-for-sustainable-development
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18. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1544617

Established in 1997, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), an inter-regional group, aimed to promote free trade, cross-border investment, tourism and technical cooperation^[1]. The organisation gradually expanded its mission and now, more than two decades after its founding, BIMSTEC has a legal and institutional framework, the BIMSTEC Charter^[2].

But the challenges of this century require speedier steps. One issue that needs urgent action from the BIMSTEC countries is climate change. The 5^th BIMSTEC Summit Declaration of 30 March 2022 was progressive on most fronts, yet had limited mention of how to counter the effects of climate change. This is ironic, considering that all the BIMSTEC countries are vulnerable to the threats posed by climate change.

BIMSTEC contains 22% of the world’s population on 3% of its geographical area, who contribute about 4% of global GDP^[3]. South Asia has the world’s highest risk of climate-induced floods, sea level rise and droughts, according to the U.N.’s most recent climate change report^[4]. The IPCC report of 2022^[5] also predicts significant water scarcity in countries along the Ganges and Indus rivers, and severe food shortages.

How this block tackles climate change will have implications for itself and for regions beyond its borders. A BIMSTEC Joint Working Group set up in 2021 has been tasked to prepare an Action Plan on Climate Change, a small but welcome step in the right direction. This article will evaluate climate vulnerabilities across the region, progress on cooperation and suggest ways to strengthen collaborative action.

Status Of Action on Climate Change:

Global climate change discussions focus on two broad areas: mitigation and adaptation^[6]. Mitigation aims to reduce the severity of climate change at the root-cause, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing emissions or removing carbon from the atmosphere is crucial if the world is to meet the Paris Agreement^[7]’s ambitious goal of limiting average global temperature rise to 2⁰ C while working to further limit it to 1.5⁰ C. Emission reduction requires a transition to green energy sources. Nullifying or sequestering carbon in forests or oceans also lowers emissions.

With 2.5 billion tonnes of annual CO₂ emissions, India tops the chart in BIMSTEC, followed by Thailand (257 million tonnes) and Bangladesh (92 million tonnes)^[8]. Thailand and Bhutan lead the group in per capita emissions, with 3.9 tonnes and 2.5 tonnes, respectively. Their per capita emissions are higher than India’s largely because they are more sparsely populated: India has 464 people per sq. km, Thailand and Bhutan have 137 and 20 people per sq. km.^[9]. However, compared to the global average per capita emissions of 4.5 tonnes, BIMSTEC emissions are lower.

Complying with limiting the global average temperature rise to 2⁰ C or below is expected to cost South Asia 1.3% to 2.5% of GDP annually starting in 2050. That could increase to 6% of GDP annually if emission cuts are not undertaken at all^[10]. Therefore, there is an urgent need to take strong action on climate change. Country specific conditions across BIMSTEC are given below.

Bhutan, BIMSTEC’s lead country for Environment and Climate Change, is the only carbon neutral country in the world^[11]. Bhutan’s forest cover removes more CO₂ from the atmosphere than the country emits. However, climate change threatens vital elements of Bhutan’s growth: agriculture, hydro power, and forestry. Outburst floods from glacial lakes induced by climate change threaten the subsistence farming on which 80% of its population depends^[12].  Climate change also creates soil loss, thereby degrading arable land in the long term. Flooding is expected to increase and cost as much as 4% of Bhutan’s GDP by 2030 in reduced livelihoods, destruction of agricultural land and economic output^[13].

Nepal’s condition is no different. With Bhutan, it is expected to suffer higher than global average temperature rises by 2080. Increased floods, heat waves and glacial lake outbursts pose threats to Nepal’s economy as well^[14]. As agriculture is responsible for over 80% of emissions in Nepal, balancing emissions reductions with food security will be a challenge. Nepal’s policies are compatible with limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5⁰ C^[15]. Turning to renewable energy sources for transportation and other uses will help to reduce the GHG footprint. Nepal plans to mandate all light vehicles be electric by 2031. However, policy hurdles need to be addressed: Nepal needs to lower import duties, incentivise domestic manufacturing, and optimise EV production costs.

Bangladesh’s geographical position makes it highly vulnerable to climate change. The world’s largest delta, most of its land is below sea level and is vulnerable to devastating floods, sea level rise and other extreme weather events^[16]. Here too, agriculture is the biggest GHG emitter, followed by heat and electricity generation. and diversifying its energy sources is essential: to do so Bangladesh needs support from neighbouring countries. Shared hydroelectric power, offshore wind farms and an interconnected grid across BIMSTEC would be some of the ways its neighbours may contribute to reducing Bangladesh’s GHG emissions. The country needs about $5 billion per year until 2030 to mitigate and adapt to climate change^[17], leaving it with a finance gap of USD 1.7 billion a year, a huge shortfall. The developed world will determine whether this finance gap is met. Sustainable waste management is an area where the country can reduce GHG emissions. With rapid urbanisation and limited land availability for waste disposal, this problem will be exacerbated and the need for a solution is becoming more urgent.

Although the projected average temperature rise over Sri Lanka is estimated to be slightly lower than the global average, the number of days over 35⁰ C due to climate change will increase from 20 to 100 a year by the turn of this century^[18]. This will have implications for agricultural productivity (especially rice), energy consumption and nutritional security. Flash floods and cyclones are expected to increase. Fossil fuels are the biggest contributors to Sri Lanka’s GHG emissions. Its policymakers should develop sustainable alternatives to expensive overseas fuel, especially given Sri Lanka’s ongoing economic crisis.

In India, more than 80% of the population is vulnerable to the impact of climate change^[19]. Extreme weather events, cyclones, floods, heat weaves and droughts are poised to dent the country’s GDP by 12% annually by the turn of this century^[20]. Other socio-economic impact ranges from migration of communities affected by climate change to the loss of life and property. India’s renewable energy plans need to be fully met if it is to significantly reduce its overall GHG emissions. India has pledged to go carbon neutral by 2070 and needs USD 10 trillion to do so^[21]. Mobilisation of international climate finance will be essential for the country to meet its goal. Ground water depletion is another challenge as it is a major source of irrigation. Climate change will increase the ground water draw, further complicating projected water and food crises^[22].

Increased temperatures, extreme rainfall (over 100 mm/day of precipitation) and changes to rainfall patterns threaten agricultural productivity and food security in Thailand^[23]. Although the country has pledged to go carbon neutral by 2065, ambiguity surrounds its plans to achieve that feat. Details regarding the mechanisms and policy instruments to be adopted need to be spelled out before Thailand’s plan can be judged. Nevertheless, the intention to go carbon neutral exists!

Similarly, Myanmar faces hydro-meteorological threats, while most of its emissions arise from land use changes. Closer attention needs to be given to the alarming rate of loss of forest cover that is releasing trapped CO₂ in the atmosphere. Between 2002-2020, Myanmar lost 4 million hectares of forest land, resulting in 2.4 Gt of GHG emissions^[24]. Conversion of forest lands to other land uses needs to be strategically managed and alternatives to large-scale deforestation need to be developed.

Interstate Rivers and Biodiversity

The BIMSTEC bloc has been steadily enhancing its cooperation in the areas of inland waterway (river) transportation and shared hydroelectricity. However, BIMSTEC countries have yet to sign water-sharing agreements for several rivers. Barring Sri Lanka (due to its geographical location), all BIMSTEC countries share riverine resources. India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh share the watershed of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna. Myanmar and Thailand share important rivers with the Salween forming a natural barrier between them.

Rivers are important to the livelihoods of fishing communities and contribute to the region’s food security. However, the majority of river-sharing arrangements amongst these countries have yet to be formalised or even formally discussed. India and Nepal haven’t signed any agreements since the Mahankali water-sharing agreement of 1985.  India and Bangladesh have yet to reach a Teesta water sharing treaty. Use of the Salween continues to be a contentious issue between Thailand and Myanmar.

Although river-sharing may appear to be a bilateral issue, ambiguity on water allocation may lead a country to take unilateral decisions, resulting in regional conflicts. With climate change-induced droughts and ground water depletion, countries need to find more water for their populations.  This will create competing claims over river water. To prevent erosion of trust and camaraderie, it is in the interest of BIMSTEC to proactively deal with emerging threats.

This region is rich in biodiversity: BIMSTEC countries are home to four of the world’s major biodiversity hotspots.: the Western Ghats and Sri-Lanka, Indo-Burma, the Himalayas and Sunderland.  A hotspot must satisfy two important criteria^[25]

1. Host at least 1,500 species of vascular plants that are not found anywhere else on the planet (endemic species.)
2. Contain 30% or less of its original vegetation, meaning it is threatened by human activity.

People benefit from hotspots. They provide water, livelihoods to indigenous communities, timber and non-timber forest products, and are significant for building resilience against climate vulnerabilities. Climate change and pressure from people have put these hotspots at risk. Illegal wildlife trade, poaching, loss of vegetation and biodiversity are some of the key threats. Remedying these requires collective action by member countries across borders.

Figure 2. Biodiversity hotspots of BIMSTEC. Source: https://www.tropicalconservationfund.org/biodiversityhotspots.html

Recommendations

Climate change is a shared problem that all countries face and the BIMSTEC countries are no exception. BIMSTEC must urgently work to reduce climate vulnerabilities, mitigate emissions and adapt to changing climate, to contribute to sustainable development in the region. The following is recommended:

Advocate forClimate Finance Flows from the Developed World: Climate finance is vital to enable BIMSTEC countries to deal with the crisis. Climate finance needs have been assessed for India^[26] and Bangladesh^[27] but to advocate effectively for ways to meet climate finance requirements BIMSTEC needs to determine the total amount of climate finance required by each country, as well as for sub-regional requirements. While country-driven approaches for the delivery of climate finance are useful, a regional assessment will enable the block to demand financial resources from the developed world. Countries working together under regional or contextual groups can better influence global discussions to secure their interests.

A Shared Framework on Climate Change Response: A framework needs to be developed that provides guidance to collectively deal with crises from climate-induced events. This will help preparations and the humanitarian response before, during and after an extreme weather event.

Financial Resource Pool: Within BIMSTEC a financial resource pool for a range of responses to climate change must be developed. A line of credit or other practical mechanism can be developed to support activities such as renewable energy promotion, sustainable technology acquisition, afforestation, climate smart agriculture, disaster risk reduction and more. Coupled with the framework on climate change, this financial resource pool will ensure resources are available when a country needs them, rather than forcing governments to solicit financial support after a calamity has struck.

Achieving Net-Zero Through Regional Collaboration: As BIMSTEC economies grow, their GHG and environmental footprint will also increase. Although most have plans to become ‘net-zero,’ they will need to obtain climate finance, technological support and capacity building to be successful. The international commitments on mobilization of climate finance agreed at Paris ($100 billion replenishable annually) have not yet been fully met or disbursed. The global response to the war in Ukraine might create competing claims on financial resources from the developed world. It is important for countries like India, with its extant ability and know how, to produce climate resilient technology and build capacity to support its regional neighbours.

Weather Forecasting Capacities: Improvements can be made to regional weather forecasting and emergency response capacities.  India pledging to reactivate the BIMSTEC Centre for Weather and Climate will boost the region’s weather forecast capabilities^[28].  Two multi-agency Disaster Management Exercises have been carried out that will strengthen shared emergency responses. India may take a lead in developing and launching a dedicated satellite for the BIMSTEC region to further augment regional weather monitoring capacity.

One Sun, One World, One Grid: While the renewable energy gap closes, the region’s energy supply needs to be secure. BIMSTEC’s equatorial and tropical countries have sunshine most of the year; their geography allows them to harness solar energy for extensive periods of time. Expansion of the green energy grid One Sun, One World, One Grid (OSOWOG) in the region can provide renewable energy and energy security. BIMSTEC’s Grid Interconnection Coordination Committee plans to develop a green grid as well as the policy framework for trade, exchange of electricity and a tariff mechanism^[29], India can take the lead in supporting the development of a BIMSTEC green grid that can become a sub-set of the South-East Asian OSOWOG. India already has plans to connect Sri Lanka with an interconnected grid and is working with its Southeast Asian neighbours on OSOWOG^[30]. Harnessing offshore wind energy over the Bay of Bengal and distributing it through the grid is a good way to increase the share of renewables in the energy basket.

Biodiversity And Natural Resource Conservation:  The area is teeming with biodiversity and is home to many indigenous species of flora and fauna. Given the geographical contiguity of the block’s countries, a shared conservation initiative is a natural group effort, with joint initiatives essential to safeguard natural resources, prevent illegal trade and hunting of endangered animals. India’s success in participatory conservation methods such as Joint Forest Management, can provide a template for the region. Participatory collaboration can be force-multipliers for wildlife surveillance, community-driven conservation and to secure livelihoods of communities that depend on biodiversity. A shared mechanism, such as a group of environment ministers, can oversee conservation efforts across BIMSTEC.

Formalizing Water-Sharing Agreements: Although BIMSTEC focuses on the Bay of Bengal, the rivers traversing the region are crucial for freshwater supply to the bay, the livelihood of communities and economic activities. The bloc must engage with member countries to settle water-sharing agreements on trans-boundary rivers. River-sharing agreements between India and Bangladesh for the Teesta, and between Thailand, Myanmar and China for the Salween must be concluded.  Parties need to abide by agreements in existing river settlements as trust between countries is indispensable for the success of BIMSTEC. Given that climate change will exacerbate the regional water crisis, it is vital for BIMSTEC to incorporate the terms ‘river’ and/ or ‘water’ in its charter and to develop a cooperation initiative on water.

Conclusion

BIMSTEC is an important initiative for collective action on the region’s most challenging issues. Climate change cannot be ignored.  Its impact needs to be carefully evaluated, vulnerabilities must be identified, and collective action plans developed to reduce dangers. The lead country on Environment and Climate Change, Bhutan, must act urgently and guide the working group in preparation for a road map for BIMSTEC. This bloc must focus on being ‘atmanirbhar’ to combat climate change as the threats it faces are unique. Solutions are available in the region. If BIMSTEC countries take on climate action together, they will strengthen the group and act as a replicable model for regional cooperation.

Author Brief Bio: Damodar Pujari is Fellow, Climate Change, Gateway House, Mumbai

References:

^[1] Bangkok Declaration Document, Government of Nepal: to promote free trade within the region, increase cross-border investment and tourism and to promote technical cooperation

^[2]https://drive.google.com/file/d/1imTXMnsLg3ostI-kN8E5L6CeRyMWrGhh/view

^[3]https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators

^[4]https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_Asia.pdf

^[5]https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_Asia.pdf

^[6]https://www.eea.europa.eu/help/faq/what-is-the-difference-between#:~:text=In%20essence%2C%20adaptation%20can%20be,(GHG)%20into%20the%20atmosphere.

^[7]https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf

^[8]https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/bhutan?country=BTN~BGD~MMR~THA~NPL~LKA~IND

^[9] Our world in data and Global Carbon Project: https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/bhutan?country=BTN~BGD~MMR~THA~NPL~LKA~IND

^[10] Assessing the costs of climate change and adaptation in South Asia. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2014.: https://www.preventionweb.net/files/38999_assessingcostsclimatechangeandadapt.pdf

^[11] Hindustan Times report: https://www.indiatimes.com/explainers/news/negative-emission-of-carbon-552521.html#:~:text=Bhutan%20do%20it%3F-,The%20Kingdom%20of%20Bhutan%20is%20the%20only%20country%20in%20the,eventually%20creates%20a%20carbon%20sink.

^[12] Royal Government of Bhutan (RGB] (2006). National Adaptation Programme of Action. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/btn01.pdf

^[13] Bhutan’s Climate Risk Profile by Asian Development Bank: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/722636/climate-risk-country-profile-bhutan.pdf

^[14] Nepal’s Climate Risk Profile by ADB: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/677231/climate-risk-country-profile-nepal.pdf

^[15]https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/nepal/

^[16] Bangladesh’s Climate and Disaster Risk Atlas by ADB: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/760781/bangladesh-climate-disaster-risk-atlas-volume2-cover-pgxxiv.pdf

^[17]https://www.opml.co.uk/blog/combat-climate-change-bangladesh-example-to-follow

^[18] Sri Lanka’s Climate Risk Profile by ADB: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/653586/climate-risk-country-profile-sri-lanka.pdf

^[19] Climate Change Vulnerability Index of India, CEEW: https://www.ceew.in/publications/mapping-climate-change-vulnerability-index-of-india-a-district-level-assessment

^[20]  The costs of climate change in India by Overseas Development Institute: https://odi.org/en/publications/the-costs-of-climate-change-in-india-a-review-of-the-climate-related-risks-facing-india-and-their-economic-and-social-costs/

^[21] World Economic Forum: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/green-finance-bolster-india-transition-net-zero/#:~:text=The%20goal%2C%20according%20to%20the,%2C%20industrial%2C%20and%20transport%20sectors.

^[22]https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/24/asia/india-groundwater-study-intl-hnk-scn/index.html

^[23] Thailand climate vulnerability profile: https://www.iucn.org/sites/dev/files/content/documents/thailand_country_profile_june2014_press.pdf

^[24]https://tinyurl.com/2p8dpnzv

^[25] Conservation Priorities: https://www.conservation.org/priorities/biodiversity-hotspots#:~:text=To%20qualify%20as%20a%20biodiversity,in%20other%20words%2C%20is%20irreplaceable.

^[26]https://www.theclimategroup.org/our-work/news/financing-climate-action-india-priorities-and-reflections-cop26-indian-states

^[27]https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Climate_en_com.pdf

^[28]https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-to-lead-security-pillar-of-bimstec-pm-pitches-for-regional-security-122033001342_1.html

^[29] BIMSTEC Event Update: https://bimstec.org/?event=bimstec-grid-interconnection-coordination-committee-deliberates-on-how-to-undertake-the-bimstec-grid-interconnection-master-plan-study-bgimps

^[30] Financial Express: https://www.ris.org.in/bimstec/bookspdf/FE-29-05-2020-One%20Sun%20One%20World%20One_Grid.pdf

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) has come of age. We have just had the 5^th Summit hosted by Sri Lanka (30 March 2022) in a digital format due to the pandemic. It generated lot of media curiosity, especially in the region, as several new initiatives and increased financing were announced by the seven Heads of State.  All of them underscored the importance of this largest Bay in the world, that lies in the heart of Indo-Pacific, as mentioned by a well-known thinker C. Raja Mohan. Unfortunately, it is also the least connected region. Hence 3Rs connectivity with Rail, Road and River along with digital and fintech connectivity through multimodal mode would have to be created. Negatives and shortcomings that prevailed in other regions like SAARC could be avoided to let BIMSTEC achieve its fullest potential. As such BIMSTEC, due to prolonged inaction since inception in 1997, has waited exceptionally long in making its pronouncements heard and felt in the conventional mainstream media.^[1]

As for India – a key driver of the initiative, it has acquired a new salience in its international discourse as the areas of collaboration and intra-BIMSTEC synergies are becoming increasingly relevant. BIMSTEC has become a ‘Triveni’ or confluence of India’s ‘Neighborhood First Policy’ and ‘Act East Policy’ which inter-alia, dwells on primary physical, economic and digital connectivity and addressing mutual challenges and concerns like counter terrorism collaboration and climate change. It is also looking to build greater and resilient socio-economic edifice for mutual advantage of all partners in progress. In this quest it is imperative that efforts are made to sensitise all concerned about its aims, objectives, directions and priorities and quantifiable roadmap and achievements so very essential to the BIMSTEC geography in particular and global audience in general.

 

They would also need to be told of challenges—both intrinsic and external—since we live in a global village and truth must be told for sustainability and confidence. Most people don’t know what BIMSTEC is all about and the longish statements issued after various meetings and Summits are too copious to be deciphered by the ordinary people. Hence a smart communication methodology would need to be devised as media organs and style has undergone a tremendous shift in recent decades with 24×7 TV channels and social media in overdrive. An organic interactive dialogue mechanism encompassing the holistic spectrum may be of significant help but for that continuous upgrading of authentic communication of relevant content will have to be made available. Not an easy task but will have to be done and that’s where government and media will have to be on board and in sync in an honest manner if a positive ‘Brand BIMSTEC’ is to be generated.

Learning from others can be of some help. There have been other regional and sub-regional organisations like the European Union, NAFTA and the ASEAN (Association of South East Nations) which have remained in news and have caused sufficient interest among the constituents and beyond since there have been issues and initiatives that are often of interest to their audiences and readers. SAARC has been in news for wrong reasons because the India-Pakistan rivalry has often played at the regional level due to bilateral context. At the same time, issues like cross-border terrorism and support from the Pakistani deep state and Islamabad’s inability or lack of resolve to contain the terrorism from its territory against India have always generated headlines. Consequently, SAARC’s efficacy has been undermined.

Many of the friends in the media, often claim that ‘Good News is No News’ and ‘Friction is the fruitful’ and that is precisely the predicament most governments and the diplomatic missions face. One can argue that they have remained in the news because of a certain sense of friction being present, be it be a Trump junketing the multilateralism and institutions like UN, WTO, WHO or CPTPP and completely junking NAFTA, revising it altogether after two decades or for that matter BREXIT keeping the world guessing of its impact on the global landscape and on the EU itself. Likewise, RCEP (16 countries Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) remained in news because India, despite negotiations, stayed out of it. India and UAE signing the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement in record time of 88 days with ten times the pages it has been inscribed on, raised the bar of expectations because it has a novelty of sorts.

I recall the 1994 visit of the then Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao to USA – a visit I was handling in the mission. The bilateral visit broadly went unnoticed despite all the critical elements of the program being there.  When I spoke to several of my media friends about their lack of interest, they said what is so great about a PM visit. USA can boast of several heads of governments and delegations visiting on a daily basis.  They also said that ‘The Good News is no News’ and the Press Releases issued by diplomatic missions are hardly of media interest which looks for ‘Masala’ rather than staid list of unverifiable achievements that are in any case not of much interest to their respective audiences. Another interesting comment was that the Embassy Press Releases were mostly for domestic consumption. During the same visit, for the visit of the PM to Boston, the extensive security briefings we carried out at the Four Seasons Hotel in Boston, scared the hotel security and authorities so much that they sent some of their staff on paid leave. While we were happy with the overall outcome of the visit, I got a call, on reaching my office in New York after returning from Boston, from my friend, who was the Foreign Editor of Boston Globe. He told me that the hotel employees had filed a case and claim at the US Discrimination Commission against the hotel and the Indian PM. While we tried to douse the fire, the news spread like wild fire for days together. This is how the media functions, operating primarily to attract audiences in a highly competitive informational battle for supremacy. That is true for major media organs, hence newsworthiness is an important vector.

Governments and the rich and the mighty do control and manipulate media, either by owning it or through advertising revenue stream. One often hears that the Chinese government has been investing in western media to the tune of over USD 6 billion to create stakes and constituencies and thereby to propagate the desired narratives. At the same time news bytes of interest do generate some traction with the traditional media and even more so with social media. Social media has become the biggest tool in the hands of ordinary citizen. Citizen journalism has become a reality that can become a tool and a challenge to contend with. If there is an interesting news, it can exponentially multiply the outreach. At the same time, more often than not, since we do not have tools for verification of newsworthiness and its veracity in real time, the fake news has become a major challenge and a great deal of damage is done before the truth emerges.

Sometimes, action is taken against even the high and mighty whose messages are taken down be it Myanmar military regime leader Ming Aung Hilaing or former President Trump of USA. On the other hand, in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, truth and independent reporting has become a casualty of information warfare. Democracy vs autocracy and the use of the powerful media tools often plays their own dynamic even if essentially there may not be a significant interest. Twitter and Facebook banned President Trump for his incendiary remarks in January 2021 when the citadel of democracy was attacked in Washington DC. Although social media is trying to develop certain ethics, these have got a good beating during the recent Russia -Ukraine crisis where they gave license to people to even indulge in hate messaging against the Russians. Psyops and disinformation campaigns are a reality, not only during wars and conflicts but also during peace time. It is a constant process in one theatre or the other. Constant vigil against such disruption is a sine qua non.

 

Beyond the classic frameworks that underpin brand development initiatives, the fundamental purpose of building a brand is to create resonance with the people and among them. Our society’s pain points, their aspirations, their core needs—these are among the key metrics a successful brand must endeavour to address. By speaking to them directly about what matters most to them, BIMSTEC can create awareness, recognition, positive association, and ultimately, the buy in of its audience. Embodying the culturally relevant and accessible tone of voice, language, emotion and values, BIMSTEC must position itself as an ally of the people, existing in its very essence to support the needs of economies that remain insulated from the first world stage at large, and so, need a voice that is louder, bolder, uncompromising and persistent. BIMSTEC’s ethos must be woven into a narrative that inspires, creates confidence and builds faith and trust among its vastly diverse target demographic.

In a hyper-connected world like ours today, the current economies we aim to support still remain largely inaccessible. Leveraging the local government and media houses creates a direct channel of communication and reach between BIMSTEC and the people it stands for. Not only do these mediums have the required access and influence to make or break a brand’s identity, impact and success, but collectively, they also possess the power to direct consumer narratives, perception and understanding.Activating their strength in a purposeful manner can facilitate the unleashing of true brand potential, ultimately creating a platform that allows a two-way win—brand awareness among the people, and a voice for the people.

In order to carry forward the aims and objectives of the Organisation it is important to have a strong, functional and well-funded Secretariat. Fortunately , the Declaration endorsed this view by stating “Agree to enhance the institutional capacity of the BIMSTEC Secretariat, including through financial and human resources, in order to enable it to coordinate, monitor and facilitate implementation of BIMSTEC activities and programmes; and initiate project proposals as agreed by the Member States as well as fulfil any other responsibility entrusted to it in an effective and efficient manner and agree to raise the numbers of Directors to seven, one from each Member State, in a staggered manner”. Additional funding has also been committed. Hopefully the Secretariat will now follow-on key issues and tasks assigned to them by the Fifth Summit.

BIMSTEC is a unique sub-regional collective that encompasses the complementarities of the maritime economy and security with mountain economy. India in the past has been a trading nation with dozens of good ports and reliable shipping lines and routes. The recent SAGAR (Security and Growth for all in the Region) initiative by Prime Minister Narendra Modi clearly is relevant for the members since it seeks to defend the national interests through deepening of economic and security cooperation by engaging in collective action for peace and security and deepening regional integration based on sustainable development. It is in the interest of all stakeholders, especially the leaders, to give their best (and not only “timely holding of Summits” but regular ones) to make BIMSTEC a real success story that will benefit them all in the long run lest it becomes another “Rubik’s Cube”.

 

While we must have a branding and communication strategy the source of information also needs impeccable credentials, especially as those countering the narratives for decimating the importance of the BIMSTEC initiatives through chatbots and social media campaigns or not even giving adequate attention or space to it, have an implicit and explicit agenda for their geo-political or geo economic ends. Hence, they will use a tool that highlights ‘the lack of press freedoms’ and denigrates the news coming out of these countries.  Although contested vehemently by countries like India, one may look at the following indices and ranking regarding journalistic liberties as per the 2021 World Freedom Index.^[2]The index is not an evaluation of the quality of journalism. The index is an assessment of pluralism, independence of the media, quality of legislative framework and safety of journalists in each country and region.^[3]

Sl No	BIMSTEC Countries	Ranking	Score
1	Bhutan	65	28.86
2	Nepal	106	34.62
3	Sri Lanka	127	42.20
4	Thailand	137	45.20
5	Myanmar	140	46.14
6	India	142	46.56
7	Bangladesh	152	49.71

 

• Above listing is out of a total of 180 countries

Therefore, while strategising, it will be imperative among other ingredients to factor this inherent bias which means not only trying to address the issues of concern to the Fourth Estate but also to contend with the biases. Any problems and issues in these countries are likely to create far more negative news than the positive slant. Recently, President Biden hosted a Democracy Summit in which Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, the two countries that moved out of the list of Least Developed Countries during the same period and have been doing better on several socio-economic indices were not invited, while Pakistan, an overtly fragile democracy, shadowed by its deep state security outfits shared the podium. It is not only the hypocrisy one is looking at but the power of western Project Democracy.

 

One should not be surprised if ongoing crisis of democracy in Myanmar or economic troubles of Sri Lanka, Maldives and Nepal and elsewhere could be flagged to denigrate the credibility or potential of BIMSTEC. Or for that matter in the wake of Russia-Ukraine crisis, stance of India and her vote at the UNSC etc. could harbinger a media tirade to degrade her democratic credentials. This biased narrative making is another challenge which needs to be factored. In essence, what is needed the most is packaging, which must be commensurate with reality to the maximum extent possible. This can be achieved through a well-conceived resource rich communication tools and strategy.

One of these could be creation of a Digital News Platform for the BIMSTEC which could generate curiosity and help productively satisfy the target audiences. In the 5^th Summit, 14+1 areas of cooperation have been reduced to more practical 7, allocated to each member state. Hence, media capsules on newsworthy positives across the spectrum will have to be created and disseminated through modern tools of communication as well as through conventional media organs including the state controlled or owned who in any case have a larger outreach. Chatterjee argues that the highest international standards of content generation along with the best practices followed in the international media industry need to be adopted in order to realise the intended outcome.^[4]

India will need to focus and prioritise its connectivity and infrastructural outreach in the Asian region. In the sub-regional context India by virtue of its size and strength will have to fork out majority of financial and capacity building requirements. To what extent can it pitch in without over-stretching is the moot question! Besides, China will continue to poach into our South Asian and BIMSTEC neighbours and play upon their fears of the “Big Brother Syndrome” alluded to India. Hence, they would continue to seek out both India and China in order to strategically balance their dependency. Therefore, while playing a critical role as an engine for BIMSTEC and other regional and sub-regional groupings, India has to strategically calibrate its power projection and proportionate financial commitments. It is a fact that until the Goa Retreat on the side-lines of BRICS Summit, India’s financial commitment was insignificant and it had not even appointed a Director to the fledging BIMSTEC Secretariat. Such lacunae could easily decimate the claims to a leadership position and the confidence of its smaller partners who might look to it. Hence India took a significant lead to address the key issues at Kathmandu.

Connectivity and Communication are the key ingredients and objectives of the BIMSTEC. Hence, the role and the vision of BIMSTEC can be summarised to improve connectivity between India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand and other members through a network of multi-modal transport and digital corridors. These networks would facilitate trade, exchange of energy through oil and gas pipelines, promotion of counter terrorism and tourism and increase of communication links leading to what can be termed as a zone of co-prosperity.^[5]Role of media is also implicit in it.

 

Following recommendations might be of some relevance:

• Not many people know about BIMSTEC including from among the academics especially its full form. Some say it is too cumbersome. Should the name be modified to relate to the countries i.e. B (Bangladesh& Bhutan), I (India), M (Myanmar), S (Sri Lanka) T (Thailand) and add N (To denote Nepal) Economic Cooperation Enterprise? So, for branding, the name is to be brought to life. But what is the end game!
• Identify the key drivers and ingredients including objectives, achievements and assessments through a SWOT analysis to create the branding architecture of BIMSTEC. There are plenty of initiatives whose matrix with reference to implementation will have to be created on a regular basis.
• BIMSTEC secretariat needs to be beefed up in its professional media management skills and outreach so that the stories that matter can be advanced to the target audiences. They could work closely with point persons in each member country to develop the requisite narratives.
• Negative publicity would need constant vigil and credible rejoinders that can be formulated not only by the government authorities but by the intelligentsia hailing from the think tanks, media experts, opinion makers and informed change seekers.
• Dedicated digital platform with chatbots could be created to transmit capsules of relevant and verifiable information about BIMSTEC at regular intervals.
• A BIMSTEC app could be considered in English and vernacular languages which would enable easy access to information and its use. Initiatives have to be directly relevant to the developmental aspirations of the people in order for them to be invested in brand building. After all, it is the users who sustain any brand.
• Citizen journalists have become the protagonists of information dissemination in this age of Social Media preponderance as a medium of real time communication. Hence, popular perception will multiply the outreach many fold.
• Perhaps an Institute of International Relations and Journalism could be established, which could eventually provide the right kind of human resources as well as enable crafting of ever evolving strategies to meet the challenges of the times. To start with, this could work in a hybrid format.
• Creation and building upon the Buddhist and other religious travel circuits could be a good interactive initiative where P2P interactions may enhance human connectivity.
• It is also important to facilitate ease of travel for BIMSTEC businessmen, tourists and academics. If possible, visa free travel may be considered simply by strengthening the immigration architecture and real time exchange of data as is done in the EU to counter the threats from undesirable elements as well as transnational criminals.
• If visa free travel is not possible, even a one-yearall-purpose BIMSTEC visa may be considered. As far as possible, to begin with, all member countries could promote their tourist and business potential and work together as a team via the digital platform. E-visa system as existing in India could be extended to all member countries. Studies indicate that Indians who are the biggest per capita spenders on tourism prefer to visit places which have trouble-free connectivity and entry requirements. No wonder over a million and half Indians travel to Thailand every year.
• National interest harmonisation may help in all the key areas for effective communication. Disputes draw more attention.
• Perhaps an Eminent Persons Standing Group may be created to research and design communication strategies as well as to advise the Secretariat on possible way forward in given and evolving situations.
• Financial viability of the organisation and Secretariat is essential for undertaking meaningful initiatives.
• Finally, symbols play a significant role in connecting with people and we may have to look at the possibilities and broad based and acceptable commonalities across the BIMSTEC region.

Author Brief Bio: Ambassador Anil Trigunayat is a former Indian Ambassador and a regular contributor on foreign policy issues. He is associated with several Think Tanks including as Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation

References:

^[1] Arjun Chatterjee in Chapter 11 of the ‘Bimstec -The Journey and the Way Ahead’ edited by Sreedha Datta , Pentagon Press (2021)

^[2]2020 World Press Freedom Index | RSF

^[3]Countries ranked by freedom of press – The Facts Institute

^[4]  Arjun Chatterjee in Chapter 11 of  the ‘ Bimstec -The Journey and the Way Ahead’ edited by Sreedha Datta , Pentagon Press (2021)

^[5]BIMSTEC and BICM: Two Competing Sub-Regional Frameworks? | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)

Introduction

What makes a country worth living is not just economic hegemony and achievements of the state, it is the wealth of the culture of the people, accumulated over centuries of wisdom about how to conduct life. The ancient Indian civilisation is the source of all the extensions of what we call as the Indian subcontinent. The geographic spread covered under this banner stretches far towards the Gulf on one side and towards the expanse of Indo-Pacific on the other.

In the chapters of human history, the only ocean named after a country is the Indian Ocean. The subcontinent holds one of the biggest consumer markets of this planet since ages. When Europeans set out in search of India, the sailor Vasco da Gama was the one who was escorted by a Gujarati sailor, the latter having ships several times larger in size than the ship being used by Vasco da Gama. The subcontinent contributed an average of about 27% of the World GDP for 17 centuries. So, it is not a surprise that Europeans devised a strategy through which they conquered the important islands and ports and the waters of this ocean and slowly subdued India. They got the raw materials from here, produced finished goods in Europe and sold them across the world. After centuries, the chess board is still the Indian Ocean, whereby countries like India and China are jostling for influence over the very same ports and island nations. China manages the Hambantota port of economically-marred Sri Lanka, Gwadar port of debt-laden Pakistan, while India holds Chabahar port project in Iran and is eyeing several ports and island projects in the Indian Ocean. The pivot of a major chunk of economics in the extended neighbourhood is the Indian Ocean because many resources like oil, gas, raw materials and goods pass through it.

ASEAN and BIMSTEC

Over a period of time, for political, economic and security reasons, various blocks and groupings were formed for cooperation on several fronts. The two main groupings we have in the Indo-Pacific region are ASEAN and BIMSTEC.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)currently has Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam as full members. The grouping is keen on working to build an ASEAN led political, security, economic, social and cultural community.

The success of this intergovernmental organisation recently is mainly on the grounds of economic integration and the free trade agreements with several countries of the region. The RCEP which is touted as one of the largest free trade agreements in the world is a very recent achievement. One of the common security interests which binds ASEAN is the influence of the Chinese military might in the South China Sea region. From food, defence to fuel and water security, the challenges faced by the ASEAN are very similar to what the entire region commonly faces.

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), comprises Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. These countries, grouped around the Bay of Bengal, have identified a total of 16 sectors for cooperation among the members.

The connect between the ASEAN, BIMSTEC and the Indo-Pacific is not just imminent but extremely important, especially as we see observe the changing landscapes of geo politics in the Indian sub-continent region. It is a natural connect from several standpoints besides the cultural and trade ties since ancient times. Let us examine the issues pertaining to water and economic security,

Water Security

Water is not just a primary source for sustenance of life, it is much more than that. The entire chunk of economic engine arrives in any particular region upon the premise of water supply security. Industries across the business sectors need a promising and consistent water supply to thrive. They also need skilled and valued human resources, which would arrive to work with water supply as a basic ingredient of life. The control of water sources gives an invisible power to the wielder of such power over the lower riparian states. The dams on these rivers help controls water flows in these nations. It can also cause artificial famines or floods if put to an offensive use. The electricity generation and supply with hydro power projects on rivers also need consistent water-flow security.

China and the Indian subcontinent together produced more than 50% of the world GDP on an average for about 17 centuries out of the last 20 centuries of recorded history. What human beings were doing on this planet for a big chunk of these centuries as economic activity was agriculture, which in turn is dependent on water. The Tibetan plateau, also called the roof-top of the world, is one of the largest sources of fresh water anywhere on this planet, from which emerge some of the major rivers of this region. These rivers deposit a lot of silt on both the sides of its banks and with that, massive amount of agriculture output as GDP was possible for all these centuries. In the modern age, the industries and economy need consistent water flow and supply in the similar way.

 

Several nations like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos depend on the water flows from China and the disputed Tibet region. China has entered into contracts of management or operating the electricity grids or supplies. Some of these countries also protest the dam construction by China over rivers flowing into their countries. Experts predict water wars in the future and certainly these small nations are not equipped to represent themselves effectively as lower riparian states in front of the belligerent Chinese CommunistParty (CCP) led China.

A joint alliance with representation from ASEAN & BIMSTEC nations are correctly placed for this century to work out a dependable water-sharing agreement negotiations with China.

Economic Security

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the latest addition connecting countries in the Indo-Pacific with a trade pact. A lot of assembly, component, labelling and raw material processing value addition happen among the ASEAN countries. Some of the nations of BIMSTEC face challenges of heavy debts and depleting foreign reserves in the recent times. Countries like Pakistan, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Nepal are facing difficulties repaying foreign debts. Thailand and Myanmar are two nations common to both the groupings ASEAN and BIMSTEC. In a way it is these two nations which geographically as well as in many other ways connect India with the entire region.

Connectivity is a major part of ensuring economic wellbeing. The land, rail, air, water, and road routes are the infrastructure factors nations need to work upon to integrate the entire region with one another. There are also recent movements in acceptance of each other’s’ currencies for trade and digital interfaces for honouring transactions and cross-border trade. The potential for bilateral and multilateral economic exchange in the region is immense in terms of free flow of all the factors of production like men, machine, market, money and material. The trade routes through the Indo-Pacific, the South China Sea and the Pacific need to be integrated for better exchanges. This will need a comprehensive arrangement among the two groupings on maritime security and commitment towards rules-based order and for securing the international law regime.

The free movements and joint war exercises programmes between the two groupings is also doable.The National Security Advisors (NSA) of all the nations of ASEAN & BIMSTEC can annually meet over a joint plan of action. India, as a lead in the region, must take the training and equipping partnership extending up to joint production of arms. Some of these nations need to be equipped with access-denial, no-access techniques of physical security from encroachment at the borders as well. The landlocked member countries are heavily dependent on their neighbours to conduct trade and commerce with the rest of the world. For the BIMSTEC, the Bay of Bengal is at the mouth of the strategic Malacca Strait which is very important for countries of the region.

Integration steps for BIMSTEC-ASEAN-Indo Pacific

Through the Seas:

The Sagarmala project needs to be expanded throughout the Indian Ocean and beyond till the Indo-Pacific region. While we cannot afford a blue water navy to act as the net security provider, stretching from the Gulf to the Pacific, we can certainly have a green paper control all over the region. The economic and security apparatus would need to work hand in hand. The role of India in the region is destined to substantially rise in the coming decades. The naval powers of the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean need to work in tandem, be it joint exercises, maintenance of freedom of navigation or ensuring seamless transit routes for trade through ports and the seas. There is also a strategic importance where the member countries operating in the ocean can have observatories to exploration cooperation possibilities within ASEAN & BIMSTEC.

There should be Annual Summits of the chiefs of forces of ASEAN & BIMSTEC nations and that of the NSA. These summits can be hosted in India. Srinagar in Jammu & Kashmir perfectly suits as the new summit capital where leaders of ASEAN & BIMSTEC can work out cooperation mechanisms. The armed forces of member nations can be trained and also maintain a strategic force group against maritime and to tackle other allied terrorism incidents for swift joint action with minimal approval ladders, wherever needed. The port projects of all the ASEAN-BIMSTEC nations can be explored for development under a structured common benefits program, for security as well as trade purposes. The inland water routes of the member nations can be connected to their own as well as to other countries’ ports via easy transit mechanisms. The need for a committed water-sharing agreement with China will be a common minimum need as an area of interest among many members of the two groupings. The fresh water river flows are a consistent necessity for this century in the region. The imminent threats on Taiwan and Hong Kong from the Chinese CommunistParty is a cause of serious concern for South-east Asia. This is where there can be a lot of synergy in defence cooperation.

Through the Roads:

India’s north-east can become a common gateway for the entire ASEAN & BIMSTEC community for trade and people to people exchange as well. The region can take the shape of a model evolved better than the European Union grouping. There is a good chance of US dollar losing prominence as a reserved currency in the world by the end of this decade. A seamless transactional connectivity of some kind of a common currency or reference index for exchange rate for cross border trade and beyond the region is a future possibility to effectively work on. The construction of strategic roadways connecting the entire South-east Asia with India is beneficial. The progress and development opportunities like tourism, manufacturing, handicrafts, food and lifestyle exchanges is immense. The connectivity mechanisms would also need to cover the security considerations in and around the borders of ASEAN & BIMSTEC nations to make the potential of benefits consistent and wholesome for the entire region. The road connectivity is the easiest method of allowing people to people exchanges, be it social, cultural, economic or religious. The potential border issues of all countries neighbouring China should be a big part of joint mechanism agenda as well. The borders with China cannot be finalised until the water flows are agreed and settled with China^[i]. Hence, this connect of ASEAN+BIMSTEC with the Indo-Pacific is going to be the most consequential alliance of this century.

Annual festivals like food festivals, trans-national touring, film carnivals and sports events and cultural extravaganzas can be planned throughout the region. The long-pending security sensitivities can be accommodated like for example the chicken neck problem of India can be solved with Bangladesh by free-entry and exit corridor in its northern zone. The rebel and Maoist or insurgency troubles can be jointly handled through a joint security mechanism. Similarly, there can be Indo-Pacific joint action group which can initiate use of force for actions immediately against agreed upon challenges of anti-national and anti-social groups.

Through Dharma:

The ancient geographical expanse of knowledge influence is re-emerging for the Indian subcontinent which is destined to sit back on the economic throne again by 2047. With one of the youngest population sizes in the world, it is obvious that the ageing nations will pour their money in our economy. India has arrived on the global stage and will fill in not just the economic leadership but as a leader in guiding the world in living a life based on values. The values which the world is yearning for after facing profits and consumption-oriented format on one side to freebies, exploitation and control-oriented format on the other. It is time India works in its neighbourhood first policy on putting up the option of Dharma in the world full of religions and groupism cults. The bottom-up control of Dharma based life can solve the sustainability to climate change issues, social, and family structure issues to global terrorism as well.

The extended neighbourhood of ASEAN, BIMSTEC and the Indo-Pacific is the first area of influence that India needs to explore. The four native Dharmas of India – Hinduism, Jainism, Sikhism and Buddhism needs to be explained to the countries of the World, especially in terms of how they are in complete contrast with the other religions. It is the knowledge of ancient wisdom which makes a country a global leader and a regional mentor to smaller countries and the extended neighbourhood.

The Jammu belt of India in the Indus and Ganga basins gave two Dharmas each, whereas the Jerusalem belt of Israel gave two religions to the world. The Gulf will be the melting pot where the four Indian dharmas will meet the two Abrahamic religions in the future. On this side where ASEAN – BIMSTEC meets the Indo-Pacific, the cultural roots already have the basic connect with the Indian subcontinent. What needs to be explored further here is an acknowledgement about how Dharmas differ from religions and the sharing of the wisdom of yoga, ayurveda and mandirs concept. The awakening in the region back to its primary source of knowledge is important to the revival and bouncing back from the colonial effects faced by this region.

The option of Dharmas to connect the entire region to its source^[ii]

The Indian Dharmas are all about individual seeking of liberation. The seeking is for the individual to decide based on his own interpretations, exploration and spiritual capacities. On the contrary, religion is a set of organised system based on beliefs in a God or Gods which clearly rejects existence of any other Gods or Dharmas and aims at conversion of people and takeover of geographies, often with a blanket separation of treatment between believers and non-believers. It comes from the “Aadesh” philosophy of strict commandments to define whether someone is a believer or not.

The Dharmas come from the “Updesh” philosophy of recommendations. The four Indian Dharmas are all encompassing, living, non-living and the entire universe. You can tell the Dharma of water and that of fire. You can’t spell out their religions. Temple is a place of worship. There is no concept of God-follower worship in the Indian Dharmas. We do not have the concept of God-fearing life. The Dharmas talk about karma-fearing life. Mandir is different from temples. Man+dir is a place where you elevate your inner-self. Mandirs have been university campuses, centres for feeding prasad-food to the people, centres of art, research, medicine and so on. The viharas between ancient mandirs were student-faculty exchange and research programs. Each mandir has several different kinds of objectives based on the supreme values represented by which Bhagwaan’s pran-pratishtha is done.

Prayer and worship are not pooja, anushthaan, yagya or aarti. The word prayer has its root origin from asking material things and asking forgiveness of the sins and in many cases, crimes. Prayer can be done anywhere in a temple, in front of a teacher or in a court of law and so on. Pooja, Anushthaan, Yagya and Aarti are completely different from prayer or worship. The Indian Dharmas are about seeking spirituality and individual liberation. One cannot ask for material things or waiving off of criminal acts as an allowable behaviour directly from the religion. There cannot be another parallel governance format led by religions along with the modern nation-state elected polity.

 

Indian Dharmas point out that the element of supreme is within each of us and everywhere. Indian Dharmas do not come from the “God-follower” concept of worship. Idol is not Murti. What we Indians do in the Mandirs is not idol worship. Murti is completely different. Murti is an embodied physical representation of the Bhagwaans for seeking and invoking the divine principle they represent.

Hence, the connect between ASEAN, BIMSTEC and the Indo-Pacific has several avenues of opportunities as all of these are closely connected with the Indian civilisation for centuries. And the river which forgets its source, disappears.

Author Brief Bio: Ankit Shah is aConsultant and Indian Subcontinent foreign policy & security analyst.

References:

1. Shah Ankit, India-China border settlement is a 10 nations project, https://www.pgurus.com/india-china-border-settlement-is-a-10-nations-project/ (2020)
2. Shah Ankit, Is Constitution for religion and not for dharma? https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/constitution-religion-not-dharma (2022)

Introduction

The Fifth BIMSTEC Summit, held virtually on 30 March 2022 under the Chairmanship of the Sri Lankan President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, reaffirmed the commitment of this seven-nation grouping towards adopting a cooperative approach for addressing issues of common interest in the Bay of Bengal region.

The theme of the Conference, “Towards a Resilient Region, Prosperous Economies, Healthy People” did not specifically include security but it was highlighted by Prime Minister Modi in his address where he spoke of enhanced BIMSTEC regional connectivity, cooperation and security^[1]. Each of these is intrinsically linked to the maritime domain in the context of the Bay of Bengal’s centricity in this construct. The transnational nature of the maritime domain and its importance had been referred to earlier at a BIMSTEC Coastal Security Workshop held in New Delhi in November 2019 by the then Secretary (East) in India’s Ministry of External Affairs in her keynote address where she highlighted the need to develop a cooperative approach towards ensuring regional security^[2]. Maritime security is also specifically discussed by the National Security Advisers at their meetings.

Besides a number of agreements and protocols that were finalised during this Summit, it was also significant for the following three reasons which impact the emerging geopolitical contours of the region:

• 24 years after its inception, a formal BIMSTEC Charter was adopted by the members which now includes a symbol and a flag. This formally institutionalises this construct and further consolidates the commitment of its member nations.
• Myanmar’s participation, represented by its Foreign Minister, despite pressure from the west to exclude it that reportedly included a diplomatic demarche to India from the United States of America. India’s response that participation in the Summit was at the discretion of the Chairman conveyed a very significant message.
• Successful conduct of the Summit with tangible outcomes despite this period of global and regional uncertainty with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and nearer home, the internal turmoil in Sri Lanka, the political volatility in Myanmar and the social and economic fall-out of the Covid-19 pandemic. In fact, this Summit was a timely reminder of the need for an inclusive and cooperative approach towards addressing common challenges.

BIMSTEC has come a long way since its inception on 06 June 1997 at Bangkok as a quadrilateral grouping comprising Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Thailand called BIST-EC (Economic Cooperation). It was renamed as BIMSTEC with the addition of Myanmar on 22 December 1997 with each letter representing a country. The addition of Nepal and Bhutan in February 2004 led to its present name being adopted^[3] though the acronym remained the same. In its early years, BIMSTEC did not get its due attention as India, its largest member was focussing its attention on the development of SAARC (The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). However, SAARC’s downward spiral because of the continuing trust deficit between its members widening by the day that even Prime Minister Modi’s effort of inviting all the SAARC Heads of Government to his swearing-in ceremony as Prime Minister in May 2014 could not salvage, has led to its marginalisation. This also coincided with the transformation of India’s Look East Policy into its ‘Act East’ policy and combined with its ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy, it was BIMSTEC that began to get more attention. India signalled its commitment to taking BIMSTEC by inviting the Heads of Government of the member countries to Prime Minister Modi’s swearing in ceremony in May 2019. The process of revitalising BIMSTEC that began in 2014 was now getting the momentum it required.

The shift in the global geopolitical and geo-economic centre of gravity to the Indo-Pacific and its emergence as a single strategic entity also brought this region into focus and enhanced the strategic importance of BIMSTEC as an important mechanism to improve connectivity between the littorals of these two contiguous ocean spaces. Economically too, this region could not be ignored with 21.7 percent of global population calling it home and generating a GDP in excess of USD 4 trillion with a combined growth rate of 6.1 percent ^[4].

At the recent Summit, BIMSTEC established seven main sectors of cooperation;^[5] these have been reduced from the earlier 14 to improve cohesiveness and efficiency. Each of these seven is led by one of the members. India is the lead country for Security which includes Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC), Disaster Management and Energy^[6].

Maritime Security per se does not find specific mention mainly because the wide-ranging definition of the term is intrinsic to most activities and sectors of cooperation in this predominantly maritime centric construct.  Its recognition as a ‘common security space’ was highlighted by India at the 4^th Summit in Nepal and requires ‘collective strategies for common responses’^[7].  Maritime security is a regular topic of discussion amongst the National Security Advisers of BIMSTEC at their formal interaction and a Comprehensive Plan of Action to enhance maritime security cooperation amongst the member states is under preparation^[8].

The importance of the maritime sector for the socio-economic development and future sustenance of the region was highlighted by Prime Minister Modi, when addressing the 4^th BIMSTEC Summit held at Kathmandu in 2018 where he said ,“ the geographical location of our region is linked to the global maritime trade routes, and Blue Economy also has a special significance in all our economies”^[9].

The scale and scope of maritime security in contemporary times, driven by globalisation, connectivity and trade dependencies across geographies has extended much beyond the traditional concept of state-on-state conflict at sea and as solely a function of navies and coast guards. It now includes a much wider spectrum of traditional, non-traditional, transnational and economic challenges across the strategic, operational, tactical and sub-conventional domains. The hazards posed by climate change, natural disasters and humanitarian crises has further widened the scope of this term. Addressing these in the oceanic spaces which transcend conventional borders and sovereign maritime jurisdictions therefore requires a cohesive regional approach. As humankind turns increasingly to the sea for its sustenance and development, cooperation and contestation will characterise this domain.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is the guiding document for ocean governance and most nations develop their own approach under its overall framework but divergences on interpretation remain. A recent example was India’s objection to the USS John Paul Jones carrying out a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) within India’s EEZ in the Arabian Sea. While India stated that it was in contravention of India’s Maritime Zones of India Act, the USA insisted that it was compliant with international law. While disputes amongst nations over economic and territorial claims will continue to occur as will maritime crime on the high seas and coastal waters, a common understanding of its long-term implications underscored by legal provisions will mitigate the threat to a considerable extent.

The Bay of Bengal, which washes the shores of five BIMSTEC members and is the economic lifeline for the two landlocked ones has its own share of bilateral and multilateral maritime security challenges which include disputes over sovereign jurisdictions and a wide spectrum of non-traditional threats including piracy and armed robbery, human trafficking, arms and narcotics smuggling, Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing(IUU), amongst others. The spectre of maritime terrorism is omnipresent and natural disasters strike this region with amazing regularity. The existential threat due to the warming of the oceans and the consequent rise in sea levels is a real and present danger as many coastal communities in the region are facing inundation and the loss of livelihoods.  Maritime security, which underpins all the seven sectors of cooperation either directly or indirectly, extends beyond regular security structures and therefore, requires a comprehensive all-of-government approach which includes diplomacy, socio-economic factors, Blue Economy initiatives, cooperative capability and capacity building, Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) and a robust regulatory and legal framework, amongst others.

The Extra-Regional Challenge.

The growing strategic importance of the Bay of Bengal, its centrality in the BIMSTEC construct and the emerging great power rivalry in the Indo-Pacific is drawing the attention of extra-regional powers and is posing a growing challenge to maritime security in the region. The Bay of Bengal offers trade connectivity over land and sea from the Indian Ocean to South-East Asia and the western Pacific. Countries located east of the Malacca Straits are dependent on the safe passage of their trade and energy through this region with more than 70,000 ships transiting this waterway annually. In 2019, China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil sourced more than 55% of its crude oil from OPEC countries (with 16% from Saudi Arabia and 11% from Iraq alone) and substantial quantities from Brazil, Oman, UK etc ^[10], all of which passes through these waters as does a major portion of its trade. Ensuring its safe passage through the narrow waterways linking the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea which are straddled by the Bay of Bengal is critical to fuel its superpower ambitions. It is acutely aware of the fact that it is presently disadvantaged as India has the strategic upper hand west of the Malacca Straits. This is often referred to as China’s Malacca Dilemma. It is seeking to mitigate this vulnerability by creating direct access from its mainland to the Indian Ocean.  In the Arabian Sea it is establishing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor connecting Xinjiang to Gwadar and in the Bay of Bengal it is developing the deep-sea port and Special Economic Zone (SEZ) at Kyaukphyu in Myanmar to connect its mainland to the Bay of Bengal^[11].

On 11 April 2022, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Yebin announced China’s new international Land-Sea Trade Corridor as the first direct trade link from mainland China to the Indian Ocean. Freight on this land-sea corridor along the Yangste river from Chongqing to Yangon will take 10-14 days to transit^[12]. There is a view that this land connectivity is economically unviable as estimates suggest that it would take about 25,000 tankers to transport just one shipload of crude oil across thousands of miles by road or rail over inhospitable terrain to reach the Chinese mainland. While this may be true, but if China has seen merit in making these strategic multi-billion-dollar investment, it cannot be ignored and has to be factored into the regional security matrix in the Bay of Bengal.

The vulnerability of Chinese trade transit to the mainland either through the narrow straits or the Bay of Bengal Road/rail connectivity projects will continue till India has the strategic advantage of being the largest resident naval presence in the region. Ensuring its security will provide China the justification to position a sizeable PLA Navy presence in the Bay of Bengal.  China is aware of its present naval limitations and it is no coincidence that despite the continuing standoff along the LAC and the dangerous brinkmanship over the last two years, it has steered clear of provoking India in the maritime domain. To address this limitation, it is not only expanding its navy at a breathtaking pace and adding large blue water capable platforms but is simultaneously developing a support infrastructure to enable long term deployment of its ships and submarines in the Indian Ocean and expand its naval footprint in the region, including the Bay of Bengal.

The Belt and Road Initiative, unprecedented in scope and ambition is as much about China’s strategic intent as it is about economic gains. The connectivity projects from mainland China to Europe over land and sea have already ensnared some of India’s neighbours in an inextricable debt trap with the consequent impact on regional political and economic stability. The present political crises in Sri Lanka and Pakistan are two recent examples and more might follow.

China has supplied countries in the Bay of Bengal with substantial military hardware. Other than India and Bhutan, the other five BIMSTEC members are operating Chinese weaponry. In the maritime domain, it has supplied the Bangladesh Navy with two frigates and two Ming class submarines in the last five years^[13]. Most of the anti-ship and surface to air missile inventory in the Bangladesh Navy is of Chinese origin including the C-802A anti-ship missile which has a range of about 180 km. The Myanmar Navy has a sizeable Chinese inventory including a Ming class submarine even though Myanmar has been trying to diversify its procurement sources. In a setback to India’s efforts to wean Myanmar away from China with the lease of one of its frontline Kilo class submarines to that country in December 2020, Myanmar also accepted a Ming class submarine from China in December 2021. Thailand has an on-off submarine programme with China. It already has a Type 039 submarine procured from China and while it continues to hesitate on taking two more, China has offered two Ming class submarines to Thailand ‘free of cost’ for training its submarine crews. Sri Lanka, which has been blowing hot and cold between China and India over the last few years also has both Indian and Chinese origin ships in its Navy.

Ming class submarines are of 1960s vintage and have limited war fighting capability. By palming off these submarines which were of little use to the PLA Navy, it has gained valuable political and military leverage in these countries. China is also assisting Bangladesh in setting up a submarine base, BNS Sheikh Hasina, off Cox’s bazaar, which will be equipped with Chinese repair facilities and manned by Chinese technical experts. This extensive submarine cooperation with the Bay of Bengal littorals has provided China the logistic and service support capability to deploy and operate its own diesel attack submarines in the Bay of Bengal and the Eastern approaches to the Indian Ocean thus impacting India’s naval pre-dominance in the region. One of the major limitations with the PLA Navy was its inability to optimally deploy its conventional submarine fleet in the Indian Ocean because of the long transit distance from China, their limited endurance and the likely compromise to their position when transiting through the narrow straits leading to the Indian Ocean. Having a facility to base these in the Bay of Bengal will address all these.

China is severely disadvantaged by an unfavourable maritime geography which restricts its ability to pursue its stated aim of establishing its maritime dominance en-route to its global superpower ambitions. Its emerging great power rivalry with the US and the necessity to contain India requires it to have ample sea room to pursue its objectives. By the end of this decade its navy will have about 450 ships of which over one-third will be blue water capable; of these, a sizeable number will be deployed across the Indian Ocean. Its port support and naval base facilities at strategic locations will enable a sizeable permanent PLAN presence in the Indian Ocean from west to east and is of concern to India.

While the physical Chinese presence in the Bay of Bengal is an emerging challenge, its active support to Nepal and its attempts to create trouble at the China-India-Bhutan tri-junction at Doklam, overlooking the strategic Siliguri Corridor, a 25 km wide ‘Chicken’s Neck’ leading to the North-East, while actively wooing Bhutan is a major cause for concern. Both Nepal and Bhutan, though landlocked, are dependent on the Bay of Bengal for their trade which has to pass through India. As an important confidence building measure and also as a capacity building initiative, BIMSTEC’s maritime members must make the necessary concessions to provide maritime connectivity to both the land-locked members as also assuage bilateral tensions concerning them in the region.

China has also been a major benefactor of Myanmar over the years with its sizable economic and military support. It has actively stoked trouble with its support to militant groups operating in India’s North-East and across the Myanmar-India border. Despite the current political situation and global criticism of the junta, India has continued to engage with Myanmar, but the future of the relationship now has an element of uncertainty.

The Non-Traditional, Transnational Security Challenge

The long term extra regional security concern notwithstanding, it is the multitude of non-traditional and transnational security challenges in the maritime domain that are a constant threat to the delicate calm prevailing in the region. The root cause of these is political instability, economic deprivation, internecine warfare, a disaffected population and inimical external actors seeking to exploit these vulnerabilities. Amongst the many challenges, the most disruptive in the maritime domain are piracy and armed robbery, illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, human trafficking, human migration, narcotics and arms smuggling and maritime terrorism.

Piracy and Armed Robbery

Piracy and armed robbery at sea has been around for as long as seafarers themselves. Incidents on board ships at anchorage are frequently reported off Bangladesh and in the Straits of Malacca, though piracy on the high seas is less prevalent in these waters. However, this is not a local issue and has implications for the entire region. Coordinated patrols frequently undertaken amongst two or more navies in the region are a deterrent but it is a phenomenon that can be contained but not totally eliminated.

Illegal,Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) Fishing

Perhaps the single greatest non-traditional security challenge in the maritime domain is the rising incidence of Illegal Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing. The rapid depletion of fish stocks all over the world, partly because of marine pollution and the damage to the marine habitat, but mainly because of over-fishing with little regard to international law or sovereign considerations is a global concern.  The Bay of Bengal is no exception and it is estimated that IUU fishing by foreign fishing vessels in the region is worth USD 3.7-5.2 bn per year which is almost 8% to 16% of the total catch^[14]. The BIMSTEC maritime nations including India have large coastal communities dependent, directly or indirectly, on the fisheries sector for their livelihood. Most of these communities still use traditional methods of fishing with limited output and are disadvantaged vis-a-vis modern foreign trawlers using more sophisticated methods. China is perhaps the world’s biggest culprit in IUU fishing. Its large fishing fleets think nothing of encroaching the EEZ of other countries and circumvent AIS identification by going dark (switching off their AIS transponders) during those periods. Besides the considerable economic cost, IUU fishing also impacts the development of the ocean economy, affects ocean governance and encourages organised criminal activity. There is some effort being made individually and collectively to curb this activity and enact better regulation but the lack of coordination is hampering the effort.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), through various governance mechanisms like the FAO Agreement on Port State Measures to Prevent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing [PSMA] and United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement [UNFSA]) is attempting to integrate regional concerns in a global regulatory framework. Initiatives like the Regional Plan of Action (RPOA) for IUU Fishing (RPOA-IUU) for the four members of the Kolkatta headquartered Bay of Bengal Programme Inter-Governmental Organisation (BOBPIGO)^[15] and a National Plan of Action (NPOA) for Combating IUU Fishing (NPOA-IUU), developed for Bangladesh are some of the initiatives being taken in this regard^[16]. Local fishermen also indulge in IUU fishing during off-fishing seasons or in regulated fishing areas. This unregulated fishing activity is very harmful to fish stocks in the oceans and also has economic implications. Individual countries have developed their own means to check IUU fishing in their waters.  However, this has larger regional implications and therefore requires a cooperative regional response capability, which is both constabulary and regulatory. Capacity building, developing a target-specific and time-bound Plan of Action besides sharing best practices being followed by individual countries are some of the measures to mitigate this threat.

Human Trafficking

Human trafficking across borders, predominantly of women and children by crime syndicates is an issue of concern. In the BIMSTEC region, human trafficking takes place over land and sea because of the nature of the terrain and the porosity of the borders and the coastline. The exact numbers are not easily available because of varying figures being documented by countries but the gravity of the issue and the magnitude of the problem is well understood.

Human Migration

This region has been a victim of upheavals amongst populations due to political instability and insurgencies which has led to large scale migration of disaffected people. It is estimated that more than one million Rohingya people from the Rakhine region of Myanmar have sought refuge in Bangladesh. Many have also taken to escape via the sea.  Instances of people being herded into boats in the most appalling conditions with tremendous risk to life by unscrupulous agents and criminal gangs occur frequently and have also been flagged as a Human Rights issue.

Narcotics Smuggling

The Bay of Bengal is central to the infamous ‘Golden Triangle’ (Laos, Myanmar and Thailand) with both the maritime states being members of BIMSTEC.  This is a major cause for concern for the other countries bordering the Bay as transit routes for these drugs to other parts of the world ^[17]. Bangladesh has flagged this issue as its maritime area is contiguous to these waters and susceptible to being used by global drug syndicates as has India. At a bilateral meeting with Myanmar in December 2020, the head of India’s Narcotics Control Bureau had flagged drug trafficking through the maritime route in the Bay of Bengal as a ‘new challenge’. This is also borne out by the frequency of drug seizures at sea by the Coast Guard, the Navy and other marine law enforcement agencies either at sea or in ports.

An increase in drug abuse in India’s north-east along the border with Myanmar is also being monitored. India is in the unenviable position of lying between the ‘Golden Crescent’ on its west with Pakistan being one of its biggest protagonists and the Golden Triangle on its east where it shares a border with Myanmar and Bangladesh^[18]. There is insufficient data in the open domain on the smuggling of narcotics via the maritime domain but the open expanse of the sea and the relative ease by which the vast coastline can be accessed makes the sea route an attractive option for drug syndicates. The usage of drug money for funding terrorism and exploiting vulnerable coastal populations is a major threat.

Arms Smuggling

The movement of illegal weapons via the sea is a major threat in the region. Besides the coastline, arms are also smuggled through ports with inadequate monitoring mechanisms. On 01 July 2004, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) promulgated the International Ship and Fort Facility (ISPS) Code^[19] which has laid down the mandatory protocols and procedures for enhancing port security and monitoring of cargo to address the threat from the maritime domain. While most countries are signatories to this code, the extent of implementation varies. Most large major ports in the region adhere to its guidelines but the many non-major ports which abound in this region have neither the means nor the intent to make the necessary investment to enforce it and lack even the most basic requirements of adequate perimeter security to safeguard their cargo. Inadequate monitoring of containerised cargo facilitates the movement of increasingly lethal and sophisticated illegal weapons which are often funded by drug money and are being used to foment instability in the region. The densely forested coastlines and the large number of uninhabited islands, eg in the Andaman and Nicobar region, provide convenient transit and landing points for illegal arms and offer refuge to insurgents; these are also vulnerable to being used as launch pads for acts of terrorism from the sea.

Maritime Terrorism

The tragic events of 26 November 2008 in Mumbai was a defining moment for maritime terrorism as an omnipresent threat in the region. The ease with which Mumbai could be breached from the sea exposed major deficiencies in the coastal security framework and led to a complete overhaul of the existing system. This was not the first act of maritime terrorism on Indian soil; in 1993, Mumbai had been rocked by a series of explosions, caused by explosives that had been landed on the Gujarat coast. Terrorism and low intensity conflict is becoming an effective tool for state and state-supported actors to create political and social instability, cause mayhem and gain international publicity for their cause.  It is also being used as an instrument of state policy as it offers an option of plausible deniability while achieving its limited ends.

The first recognised maritime wing of a separatist organisation was the LTTE’s Sea Tigers which became a thorn in the flesh of the Sri Lankan Navy with frequent attacks at sea and used its own ships and watercraft to smuggle arms into the country; The jurisdictional challenge of interdiction at sea was highlighted with the LTTE claiming that the ship was on innocent passage on the high seas beyond Sri Lankan jurisdiction and the Sri Lankan Navy justifying its actions^[20].  This highlighted how the vast expanse of the sea and the concept of the global commons can be exploited for nefarious ends with inadequate jurisdictional authority to take effective action. Political instability, insurgent movements, disaffected populations, economic deprivation and ideological messaging which incites, are the perfect breeding grounds for terrorists and there are elements within coastal populations who are vulnerable to the temptation of making a quick buck.

Addressing the Challenge

The BIMSTEC sector on Security Cooperation, led by India is addressing this challenge through six Joint Working Groups (JWG). These are:

• Sub-Group on Narcotic Drugs, Psychotropic Substances and Precursor Chemicals (SGNDPSPC)
• Sub-Group on Intelligence Sharing (SGIS)
• Sub-Group on Legal and Law Enforcement Issues (SGLLEI)
• Sub-Group on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (SGAML-CFT)
• Sub-Group on Human Trafficking and Illegal Migration
• Sub-Group on the Cooperation on Countering Radicalisation and Terrorism^[21].

Climate Change

Global warming is a reality that cannot be wished away. The rapid melting of the polar icecaps and the increase in sea levels is likely to inundate large extents of low-lying coastal areas and therefore poses an existential threat to the lives and livelihoods of the communities living there. Despite the ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 14 refers to the marine sector), a collective effort is lacking. Even limiting the rise of temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius will have a major adversarial effect on the maritime domain in the Bay of Bengal. It will destroy the dense mangroves which could lead to unchecked flooding; it will cause acidification of the sea, destruction of coral growth and the migration of fish to cooler waters.  Added to this is the pollution of the seas which directly affects marine life. While on the one hand the importance of the seas for the future of mankind as a medium of clean, safe and economical transportation and a source of revenue through marine tourism and resource exploitation is important, ensuring that this is done responsibly to ensure sustainable development is a challenge that has not been adequately addressed. A mixture of ignorance and indifference among the populace is leading to a rapid depletion of this precious resource. Climate change therefore, has major implications for regional maritime security. Collectively addressing this is an imperative that requires immediate and effective action.

A direct consequence of climate change is the rising incidence of natural disasters in the region. The memories of the devastation caused by the tsunami on Boxing Day 2004 are still fresh in people’s minds; there have been numerous other cyclones and typhoons over the years of varying intensity with calamitous loss of life and property that has devastated communities and caused economic and personal grief. Providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to reduce the suffering is a major non-traditional task for navies and coast guards. India has been at the forefront in providing HADR in the region and is creating regional capacity to both predict a possible disaster and also be able to offer the necessary support.

Mitigating the Maritime Security Challenge

BIMSTEC has often been blamed for underperforming which is not entirely unjustified. It was only at the recent Summit, 24 years after it came into existence that its Charter was adopted. The reason for this is a lack of convergence on many political and economic issues amongst its members which has stymied progress on many fronts. It must be said however, that there has been significant progress since 2016; the strategic centrality of the Bay of Bengal as a connectivity hub in the emerging Indo-Pacific power-play, and the economic benefits of collectively addressing issues related to the seven sectors identified at the recent Summit are becoming increasingly obvious. Ensuring a secure maritime environment is central to this. India, as the largest (by far) and most influential member of this group, has to take the lead in creating a shared understanding of the challenges and developing a cohesive approach towards addressing the same.

The key to developing an effective maritime security capability across BIMSTEC lies in inclusive and cooperative capacity building and creating a cohesive network where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Prime Minister Modi’s SAGAR Doctrine (Security And Growth for all in the Region) is driving this effort across the political, social, economic and security domains. India’s SAGARMALA port-led maritime infrastructure development programme to revitalise maritime India is another initiative that can be dovetailed seamlessly into strengthening BIMSTEC and making it self-sufficient in various maritime sectors. The restructuring of the coastal security architecture after the tragic events of 26 November 2008 has led to the coastal radar coverage along India’s 7516 km long coastline getting extended to include Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and even further afield to the Maldives towards developing a robust surveillance capability in the entire region.

The coastal security network in India’s entire maritime neighbourhood is just one of the SAGAR initiatives taken to enhance MDA, which is critical for effective regional maritime security. Sharing best practices and further refining them through joint exercises also contributes substantially to capacity building. In December 2021, a three-day multilateral exercise called PANEX 21 was conducted in Pune which focussed on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief and was attended by all BIMSTEC members^[22]. The recently held biennial MILAN exercise with participation from all countries in the region and beyond which had humble beginnings more than 25 years ago has matured into a major capacity building effort.

Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)

Effective and continuous surveillance is essential to secure the vast ocean spaces and nip a developing situation in the bud. This is especially relevant in the case of non-traditional and transnational threats. As the pre-eminent Indian Ocean power, India is also a provider of net security in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) for which effective MDA is an imperative. The strategic and economic importance of the Bay of Bengal and its littoral is gaining global attention with many extra regional players keen to engage. It is imperative, therefore, that the region be seen as safe and secure for the passage of trade and for economic investment. Modern technology has enabled surveillance by long range maritime patrol aircraft, satellites, warships, submarines, merchant shipping and even fishing craft. Securing this region will require a coordinated national and multilateral effort by all the littorals. This will include a well-coordinated internal organisation and its ability to coordinate, collate, analyse and disseminate information in a regional framework. Information sharing is an important element of MDA. The setting up of the Indian Ocean Region Information Fusion Centre in Gurugram, a suburb of the national capital in December 2018 has greatly enhanced regional MDA. India has signed White Shipping Agreements with more than 23 countries which enables the sharing of unclassified information on the movement of shipping and is the means to detect any abnormal activity at sea which may warrant attention. Information sharing with similar centres in Singapore and Madagascar (covering the western Indian Ocean) provide a comprehensive maritime picture of the region and its surrounding waters.

Blue Economy Initiatives

Sustainable and responsible exploitation of the oceans is critical for the Bay of Bengal littorals. India is at the forefront of various climate change initiatives. It has pledged its support to the Sustainable Development Goals and has taken the lead in important initiatives like the International Solar Alliance and the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative. It is also assuming the Presidency of the G-20 this year. During its two-year non-permanent membership of the UN Security Council, it convened a discussion on maritime security. BIMSTEC should leverage India’s prominence on the global stage to focus attention on the hazards of climate change in the Bay of Bengal littoral. Additionally, the Bay of Bengal littorals have to commit themselves to this cause besides educating their populations and emphasising the importance of sustainable exploitation of the maritime domain.

Multilateral Initiatives

Most of the BIMSTEC nations are also a part of other regional multilateral mechanisms like the Indian Ocean Rim Association, ASEAN, ADMM+ and professional mechanisms like the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) and the Western Pacific Naval Symposium(WPNS) etc. India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). Member countries should leverage these organisations towards enhancing regional maritime security measures and adopting their best practices. India must support these efforts as part of its SAGAR Doctrine and as the security lead in BIMSTEC.

Conclusion

The predominantly maritime construct of BIMSTEC underlines the importance of a robust maritime security framework to address the growing challenge from state and non-state actors to dominate, disrupt and destabilise this region. As BIMSTEC’s strategic importance grows, so will the magnitude of the security challenge. This will require a cooperative capacity and capability building effort to ensure the individual and collective security and economic interests of its members. A coordinated and comprehensive approach to regional development, a potent military and constabulary capability and a robust legal and regulatory framework in conformance with internationally accepted conventions and regulations is the need of the hour. Frequent governmental and non-governmental interaction amongst its members on issues of shared interest must be encouraged at various levels must be encouraged. The adoption of the BIMSTEC Charter is an important step forward in giving purpose and direction to this regionally important construct.

Author Brief Bio:Commodore Anil Jai Singh served in the Navy for over three decades. He is presently the Vice President of the Indian Maritime Foundation and takes keen interest in matters maritime.

References:

^[1]  Press Release Prime Minister’s office 5^th BIMSTEC Summit 30 March 2022. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1811269&msclkid=b6a00916bb9d11ecbac41f0ad09d8b08

^[2]https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/32068/Keynote…

^[3] https://bimstec.org/?page_id=4863

^[4]India remains strongly committed to expand regional cooperation under BIMSTEC: Foreign Secretary – The Economic Times (indiatimes.com)

^[5] https://bimstec.org/?page_id=3919

^[6]https://bimstec.org/?page_id=6113

^[7] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-seeks-to-pose-bay-of-bengal-as-common-security-space/articleshow/65537612.cms

^[8] https://bimstec.org/?page_id=6113

^[9] https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statements.htm?dtl/30332/Translation_of_Prime_Ministers_Statement_at_BIMSTEC_Plenary_Session_August_30_2018

^[10]https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43216#:~:text=%20Russia%20remained%20the%20largest%20non-OPEC%20source%20of,to%20average%200.8%20million%20b%2Fd%20for%20the%20year.

^[11] https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/agreement-moves-myanmars-kyaukphyu-port-project-a-step-forward.html

^[12] http://www.china.org.cn/business/2022-04/08/content_78153926.htm

^[13] https://www.janes.com/defence-news-detail/china-hands-over-two -ex-plan-frigates-to-bangladesh-navy

^[14] https://www.fao.org/3/cb1808en/CB1808EN.pdf?msclkid=d2880aa0bd5011ec8bdabb2485941af2

^[15]https://bobpigo.org/webroot/img/pdf/  Report-IUU-October2019-FINAL.pdf?msclkid=d8217d47bd6211ecb7c68530c7802

^[16] Ibid.,

^[17] https://ipag.org/maritime-security-in-bay-of-bengal-potential-challenges-and-opportunities/?msclkid=e7e9572fbdf811eca92c58d5c1a12faa

^[18] https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/dec/11/narco-trafficking-through-bay-of-bengal-maritime-route-a-new-challenge-ncb-chief-rakesh-asthana-2234952.html?msclkid=e7e9b1f4bdf811ec9f0fd0ae4b2fe0b4

^[19] https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Security/Pages/SOLAS-XI-2%20ISPS%20Code.aspx

^[20] https://frontline.thehindu.com/world-affairs/article30216361.ece#!

^[21] https://bimstec.org/?page_id=6113

^[22] https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/pune-three-day-bimstec-military-exercise-concludes-7685931/

Gaurie Dwivedi

You have been Ambassador to Myanmar, Afghanistan and Syria, and Myanmar is one of the member nations for BIMSTEC. After the BIMSTEC Summit, which recently concluded in Colombo, there are more issues, challenges and opportunities to discuss. Do you think it’s a reset as far as BIMSTEC is concerned because the regional grouping has not really performed as much as what many assumed it to and it languished in terms of the role it could play in the region? Do you think the summit could act as a reset, as an inflexion point going forward?

Gautam Mukhopadhaya

Let me begin by saying that yes, we all have to acknowledge the founders, as well as the later members, that BIMSTEC is a very prominent grouping of countries. It lies at the fulcrum of South Asia, South-East Asia, in the middle of our Neighbourhood-First, Act-East and Indo-Pacific strategies, and overall sort of a very important location in the Bay of Bengal. But it has been slow to start, and you know, we saw that it went into summit mode sometime around 2004. We had another summit in 2008 and 2014 and since then in fact, actually, it has been India that has injected a little life into it, when the Prime Minister invited the BIMSTEC leaders to the BRICS summit in Goa in 2016. Subsequently, we had the Kathmandu summit in 2018, and in between, of course, we’ve had the covid pandemic. So, I do believe that there have been steady incremental moves since about 2014. Before that, it was a little more deeply in slumber. Since 2014, a Secretariat has come up in Bangladesh and this time, a very major step was taken in adopting the Charter of the BIMSTEC. I think along with that they also adopted a couple of important MOUs and agreements, particularly some that have been in the works for some time such as the master plan on transport and connectivity. So, there is a kind of push by India and there is a movement within the BIMSTEC. But we are a far cry from where we want to be or where we should be, given the fact that the heart of this lies in the Bay of Bengal, and we have not really seen any major lift in Bay of Bengal trade and the Bay of Bengal economy. We talk about the Blue Economy,but in fact there has not been much movement in terms of overall Bay of Bengal trade. And, I think it would be useful actually to go back to the colonial period, you know when the British were effectively the drivers of the economy of the subcontinent. And radiating out from Calcutta, you had a whole series of port connectivity, down to Malaysia and Singapore. But that was part of a colonial economy. Now we are in a different situation. There has been partition and subsequently Bangladesh, so there has been a fracturing of the political geography of this area. But at the same time, we have this synergy coming from India’s Look East and now Act East policy. And there is a desire to look towards South-East Asia as a kind of growth engine for the region. So, I think the conditions are there, the actual chemistry still needs to take place.

Gaurie Dwivedi

There is a lot in terms of maritime cooperation that needs to be done. I remember, first I heard about BIMSTEC was almost 20 years back and even then, there was talk about how there is a huge trade opportunity that exists. It’s unfortunate that two decades later we are still talking about an opportunity. It’s frankly an opportunity lost. But you know, I was just looking at the ASEAN trade and comparing it to BIMSTEC just to get a sense of how much regional groupings can really contribute to each other’s economy. ASEAN trade is up by USD 600 billion and BIMSTEC trade is sub USD 70 billion. So, A, of course there is no comparison, and B, it also does suggest that the region must now grab the trading opportunities with both hands. Do you think that can now happen? Again, I am talking in the backdrop of the Summit because there is now more sense of optimism in terms of the future that holds for the grouping.

Gautam Mukhopadhaya

So let us talk of a couple of things. One is, let’s not forget that for a greater part of the last 20 years, political conditions have not been very ripe. Myanmar was more or less stuck in its insular period. Relations with Bangladesh were not that great, and the Bangladeshi economy is only now beginning to really move. For a long time, it languished in the category of Least Developed Countries. Now it has very high human development indices and the growth is also good. Myanmar looked up in between, during the 10 years between military governments and the first NLD government, but right now is in a state of severe political crisis. And by and large, a lot of the economies other than India and say Thailand on the other side, are not very highly developed economies, or economies that can make a big impression regionally such as Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Sri Lanka too is in an economic crisis. On the other side, ASEAN is still moving ahead, and you have international crisis like the pandemic of covid and as well as now the Ukraine crisis which in some ways is pushing us towards much greater regional supply chains, much greater regional cooperation, may be even a degree of integration. You were right in pointing out the trade statistics. You know, if you look at it, actually our intra-BIMSTEC trade is 5% and I think even ASEAN is much more—about 30% within the ASEAN itself. So there is a huge deficit to overcome. But I think the problem really lies in the fact that much of these economies are still very highly under-developed. They haven’t tapped their biggest potentials. And when I say big potential, I say one is, of course, the Blue-Economy. Bay of Bengal has not really been exploited in a sustainable way, because today we can’t do plain rampant extraction and extraction alone. We have to think in terms of how you build natural capital as well, but also the agricultural economy. We tend to focus a lot on the industries without realising that 70% of the economies of these countries are largely rural and agri-based. And we haven’t yet invested sufficiently in the agri-base of these economies. If we were to do this, then there would be a natural kind of momentum to the economies.

Gaurie Dwivedi

We are talking at a time when there is so much expectation of maritime cooperation, more so given that this region is achieving a lot of prominence, with the Indo-Pacific, the South China Sea, and the whole region is now in discussions for various reasons. Do you see that having an overhang in nations coming together for greater maritime cooperation, whether it is Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar? All of them do have requirements of greater maritime cooperation more so given what’s happening in the Indo-Pacific region. Do you think that the marine economy could act as a catalyst?

Gautam Mukhopadhaya

Very often, a lot of what we are talking about is maritime cooperation for let’s say shipping, or essentially security based. But yes, I think there is the marine economy that as I mentioned, the Bay of Bengal marine economy is very important. The other thing you were alluding to was that, suddenly, the region has become much more strategically important. Not only is there a greater consciousness of the importance of Indian Ocean trade, but also of trade through these areas. The overarching presence of China, now the activities of the Quad, the Americans, the Brits, and the Australians with AUKUS, Japan becoming a much more active partner of India, the Chinese active on the Belt-and-Road initiative, after all they have something called the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, deep-sea port in Myanmar, and on the western side which we can leave out. Butso, there is suddenly a lot more activity on the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific, and I think that this is enhancing the profile of this region, and having the effect of taking a greater interest in the economy as well. But you know, we still don’t have the kind of business-to-business relations that will actually kick start the Blue Economy. Even much of the soft infrastructure that is required, for example, a lot of the shipping in this area would be coastal shipping. I know that the BIMSTEC have been working on a postal shipping agreement, largely pushed by Thailand, but we haven’t yet reached that. Even the coastal shipping agreements between the countries of the region are not yet very mature enough. So, a lot of the trade, just as we talk about building an economy from the bottom, a lot of the trade that will take place will be coastal trade, between one part of the Bay of Bengal to another part. And if we go back a little bit into history, we shouldn’t’t forget that the Bay of Bengal was a very thriving trade area. Traditionally, we had the Arabs, the Tamils, who were traversing this area you know, connecting to Indonesia, Malaysia, present-day Malaysia, even in Myanmar there were Tamil communities that traded with these areas. So in any kind of trade revival involving literal communities, coastal communities are still waiting to be.

Gaurie Dwivedi

So, what do you think should be the next few steps, and you know a lot of this has to be driven by India? It is like the real elder brother taking all the nations together, and India has to play that role? What do you think would be those 3-4 important milestones that India needs to reach for lifting BIMSTEC?

Gautam Mukhopadhaya

The first one that I mentioned, is a coastal shipping agreement. The second I would say is another thing that I think we have been working on but not reached anywhere which is a free trade agreement, and a free trade meaning free trade in goods, services and investment. So again, what tends to happen is we tend to go for FTAs with the more advanced and developed economies because we’re looking for technology, capital know-how and things like that. But actually, we tend to ignore the lower hanging fruit, which is you know FTAs with countries that are actually in a less well-developed state than us. So, for example, though it does not directly connect to the CLMV countries, Myanmar is a least developed country in that area, so I was actually coming to the role of investment and cross-investment. For example, you know we tend to talk a lot in trade but we tend to think in terms of trade by manufacture year and then exporting or importing between countries. But you know, what many of these free trade agreements particularly in investments offer, or these comprehensive economic partnerships that we offer, is the opportunity of investment led trade. In other words, country like India which is a stronger economy, can invest in the less developed economies of the BIMSTEC region and create a market for those products in this entire BIMSTEC region. And you know, you’re talking about a market of over USD 3 trillion economy, and a population of about 1.6/1.7 billion. So, it is a huge market for investment-led trade and within that investment, it wouldn’t surprise you that I would emphasise actually invest in the Agri-economies, in the rural economies because that is where 70% of the people are earning their livelihood. And that’s on one side. On the other side, you have, of course, the marine economy that you mentioned. The marine economy means many things. It means the coastal shipping agreement, it means ports, it means actually shipping services, it means the goods that you can have to exchange with each other and again that can be helped by investments, cross-investments. So, I think we need to work much more overall I would say on much greater volumes of investment by the countries of BIMSTEC and within the region.

Gaurie Dwivedi

And then, how much are we talking in terms of sizeable investments to really make a dent for this to sort of be worth everybody’s?

Gautam Mukhopadhaya

I think you’re touching my sort of pet themes now. One is sizeable investments. So you know there are two kinds again, one can have large investments, a few large investments, or one can help small investments on a large scale. Now when you’re thinking of an agri-rural economy, mostly what you would be thinking of is processing, the producer of that economy and actually you don’t need very large capitals, you don’t need very large projects, you don’t need all the sort of destructive consequences that come out of that. You can do a lot by doing small things on a large scale, which means that there is a tremendous opportunity for things like small and medium enterprises or creative entrepreneurship, creative businesses and innovation. I forgot to mention one area – services. You know, India is strong on services. We are particularly strong on IT based services. We have evolved, we have developed IT based apps for governance, for commerce and for a number of other things. I don’t think we have really fully made some steps with things like extending Rupay to Myanmar, and to Bhutan and so on. But I think there’s a lot more scope in broadly what I would call the IT economy which includes everything, going up to e-commerce, payment systems, financial systems.  So, there’s another huge opportunity. You know we have health-based apps. We can have many more…

Gaurie Dwivedi

In fact, health is a huge area where you know, post-covid, there has to be a lot of focus and India can really play the lead there. This is a region where there are deep cultural links, deep civilisational links, and ideally there should be very deep people-to-people connect, paving the way for trade to happen. But that isn’t the case. Trade is not flourishing despite deep civilisation links because those people-to-people connect, I believe, is still not where it can be. Do you think that also needs to be worked at and again India needs to sort of really play the role of setting the stage for that to happen?

Gautam Mukhopadhaya

Absolutely! You know we already have one platform, which is the fact that a lot of these countries are Buddhist, for many of them Bodhgaya or the Buddhist pilgrimage is a very important part of their aspirations. So, you already have a basic platform that is provided by these, what you call cultural, religious and civilisational links. Obviously, these need to be supplemented and augmented by much more tourist traffic. You know, a country like Myanmar has close to 2 million people of Indian origin. Right? Just imagine the sheer traffic coming out of just that, a lot of them are originally Tamil. And we still don’t have an air connection between let’s say Yangon and Chennai or something like that. So, there are huge gaps in the air services that we can provide. I think Vietnam has taken a leaf out of the book and has recently resumed some services which had suffered on account of covid. But you know, clearly, what happens is air services and connectivity very often flow from people to people or business ties and then contribute to it in return. So that kind of dialectic you know, that kind of dynamic somehow escaped so far, and partly because there’s already very well-developedcentres like Singapore and Thailand which tend to act as hubs and tend to attract all the traffic. Initially, Rangoon used to be the Bangkok of South East Asia. All the airlines used to actually fly through Rangoon. But over the period of military dictatorship, you know, it has surrendered that advantage and now it’s not so easy to get it back.

Gaurie Dwivedi

No, it isn’t. And more so you know since we’re talking about Myanmar, I want to also touch upon the security aspect of it. I was speaking to several diplomats and several experts and they did point out that when you talk about this region, one cannot undermine the security challenges that you’re talking about. There is the Rohingyas, then there are the security challenges that come out of political upheaval. We’re seeing that in Nepal, we’re seeing that in Sri Lanka over and above what is happening in Myanmar. So that also needs to be considered, when you’re talking about a future of BIMSTEC. Now, I want to ask you, how can India overcome those challenges, because it’s primarily New Delhi that has to shoulder this burden?

Gautam Mukhopadhaya

I think it was because of the consciousness of this, that somewhere, I think with the Kathmandu summit, security and counter-terrorism, which had not been ready elements of what was essentially a Technical and Economic Cooperation body, were brought into it. But I would be cautious ofboth over-securitising the issue or of underpaying the security aspects.Security is important and no doubt there are political problems that do need to be addressed, but there’s a lot of scope for business. I would say trade and investment is the backbone. I’m not saying trade and investment can cure and solve all the political and security problems, but they do mitigate them to some extent. Clearly, political and security problems do need to be addressed, but that must not come in the way of greater regional cooperation.

There are Indian insurgent groups that are active in Myanmar, they have been Indian insurgent groups that have been active in Bangladesh and Bhutan as well. At the same time, we have been able to develop our relationships with these counties.

Gaurie Dwivedi

A BIMSTEC charter has been adopted and architecture has been institutionalised. Now there’s going to be a summit every two years and there will be periodic ministerial meetings. Where do you see BIMSTEC, 2 years from now, after the architecture has beeninstitutionalised, with a fresh commitment from all the member countries?

Gautam Mukhopadhaya

I would really like to see movement on the free trade agreement, you know we’ve had a problem with the RCEP, right? I mentioned to you a bias that we have towards FTAs with the more advanced economies. I think we need to really look at FTAs with the smaller economies, because they don’t have as many hang-ups about issues like protectionism and so on because they don’t have the industries to protect. To them, it does not matter whether they import from China or from India if they don’t produce that good, because they would actually like to have both markets to the extent possible. So, I would say that you know all those things that I mentioned, that coastal agreement, investment in the agri-rural sector, investment in general in the smaller economies. I think these are the ways that are generally a much stronger road to investment. That means, from India’s point of view, it has to be much more external investment from India outwards into the region, and we should not count it as a net loss because, you know, these are opportunity costs, these are competitive advantages that we would be taking advantage of, and we would be linking those geographies as part of this regional value chain, and that is really what is real integration. We talk about globalisation, we talk about global value chains but we need to really begin from the region. So, I would like to see the BIMSTEC evolve in that area where we think of this area as a common investment area. If we actually start off with these economies, we’ll be much better prepared to integrate with RCEP and other sort of trade linkages in the region.

Brief Bio:

Amb Gautam Mukhopadhaya is a career diplomat and has served Indian embassies and missions. He is a former ambassador to Myanmar, Syria, and Afghanistan

MsGaurie Dwivedi is an Author and Senior Journalist covering economy, policy and politics.

Introduction

There has been a great deal of speculation in sections of the media as well as in the social media of a change taking place in the Army’s recruitment pattern. Termed as the Tour of Duty (ToD), it envisages recruiting soldiers for a short duration of three to five years’ service in the Army. It is believed that the proposal is under active consideration by the Ministry of Defence, but in the absence of any official statement from the government on the subject, the purpose of introducing such a concept, the broad contours it may follow, as also a discussion on the pros and cons of such a proposal can at best be based on certain reasonable assumptions. This paper aims to put across the likely thought process behind the proposal, the pattern it can take and the likely impact this proposal will have, if introduced.

Broad Contours of the ToD Proposal

The basic thought process behind the proposal is to reduce the expenditure on military pensions. On a fixed defence budget, reduction in revenue expenditure would make greater funds available for capital outlay, which in turn would facilitate new acquisition and military modernisation. India’s budget for FY 2022-23 allocated Rs 5.25 lakh crore for defence, which includes the defence pension component of about Rs 1.2 lakh crore. Obviously, a reduced pension component will lead to a larger capital outlay. With this in view, the proposal is believed to envisage recruiting personnel into the Army for short tenures, akin to conscription but on a volunteer basis.

One of the proposals is to induct personnel for both a three-year period as well as for a period of five years to eventually, say within 15-20 years, have an army strength that would comprise 25 percent personnel who would be below 3 years’ service and another 25 percent who would be between 3 to 5 years’ service. The rest of the component would be as presently existing. There could be different computations of the above, but the end objective is the same. On completion of ToD, some of these personnel would be absorbed in the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) or in the corporate sector while the rest would be free to seek employment elsewhere. Those who do not find employment will be encouraged and assisted to set up small scale individual businesses. The savings accrued during the ToD as well as the lump sum amount, they would receive on completion, would provide them the necessary capital for the same.

The individuals serving for periods below five years would not be eligible for pension, so the scheme is slated to reduce the pension bill of the Army. Some of the other benefits envisaged are as under:

• It would reduce the age profile of the Army.
• It would create a large work force of disciplined individuals, who would then be an asset when employed in either the CAPFs or by the corporate sector.
• Those individuals who cannot get employment will be encouraged to set up small scale private enterprises, which could give them an alternate livelihood. This would also give a boost to the economy.
• It would lead to increased employment opportunities for the youth.

Earlier Proposals

One of the earlier proposals of the Army was lateral induction of short service commissioned officers into other services. For the jawans who retire after 15 to 17 years of service, it was recommended that they be employed thereafter in the CAPF (Border Security Force, Central Industrial Security Force, Central Reserve Police Force, Indo-Tibetan Border Police, Sashastra Seema Bal, National Security Guards) or in the para military forces (Assam Rifles). This proposal found little favour with the Home Ministry and was shelved.

In 2019, an army veteran, Lt Gen P. Menon, along with Pranay Kotasthane, both from the Takshashila Institute, wrote a discussion paper recommending an ‘inverse induction model’ to reduce the Army’s pension bill.^[1] This was a modification of the earlier Army proposal and envisaged induction of army personnel into the CAPF. The recruitment would be done by the CAPF, but the recruits would be trained by the Army and would revert back to their respective CAPF after completion of 7 years’ service.

Analysis of the Inverse Induction Model

For the purpose of analysing the financial implications of the stated model, the assumptions made are as under:

• For the period, annual pension liability of GoI is assumed to be constant for a fixed number of Other Ranks (OR).
• The total Army authorisation of OR is ‘A’ and their total annual contribution towards future pension liability is ‘P’.
• The No of CAPF recruits each year is x.
• The annual pension contribution of x Army OR is X, ie X Rs saved each year in pension contribution (notional) by recruiting x number of OR into the CAPF.
• All OR are assumed to retire after 19 years, with uniform rate of recruitment each year. Hence, the total annual training expenses for A/19 number of recruits is T =(A/19) *t, where t is the individual recruit training cost for one year. (See table below)

Service (Year)	CAPF Recruits (Total)	Pension Contribution (Total Army)	Training Expenses (Annual Total)
1	x	P-X	T=(A/19)*t
2	2x	P-2X	Higher
.	.	.	.
.	.	.	.
7	7x	P-7X	Higher
8	8x	P-7X (as x No of OR have left for CAPF)

 

The following inferences can be made from the above table:

• There is saving in pension contribution from the defence budget for first 7 years and it peaks at 7X. From 8th year onwards, the saving remains 7X.
• The pension budget of CAPF, however, goes up by an equivalent amount as 7 years of Army Service will be counted for CAPF pension also.
• Net pension savings to the GoI is zero.
• Training costs go up. When no CAPF, annual recruit training cost is At/19. With CAPF recruits, annual cost is (A-x) *t/19 + xt = At/19 + 18xt/19 – i.e. an increase of 18xt/19 in annual training budget.

The Conclusion from the above analysis is as under:

• The saving in defence pension budget peaks after 7 years (can be        construed from 1-7 years or alternately from 20 to 27 years, when          actual pension disbursal commences).
• There is a corresponding increase in CAPF pension budget.
• Net saving to GoI is zero.
• There is increase in annual training expenses in Army.
• Net no savings to GoI while there is increase in Army training budget.

The above analysis indicates that the Inverse Induction model does not result in financial savings to the GoI.

The Tour of Duty (ToD)

The ToD concept envisages recruitment of soldiers for a short duration, much like the conscription model existing in some countries. Romantically called ‘Agnipath’, the soldiers recruited in this proposal will be known as ‘Agniveers’, following the classic business model of giving a high-sounding name for standard military jobs.^[2] The fundamental flaw in this proposal is that it gives primacy to finances over operational effectiveness. It is true that no nation can wish away the larger macro-economic financial constraints, but at the same time, it would be unwise to barter national security and defence preparedness for purely financial reasons. While it is essential to look at optimisation of available resources, it simply cannot be done without holistically looking at all aspects of defence preparedness. This would include the nature of threats we are currently faced with and the force levels required to deal with them, to include the entire gamut of force structuring, weapons and equipment holding, logistic support infrastructure as also the state of morale, training, and a host of other battle winning factors.

Be that as it may, it is debatable whether the ToD concept will lead to financial savings which are of such great account that it will give a tremendous fillip to capital acquisitions and force modernisations.

Analysis of Financial Implications of ToD

The analysis of the concept of ToD is being restricted to OR; the OR pension budget being the major component owing to large number of OR in the Army. In any case, the officer cadre already has a Short Service Commission entry where officers can exit at 5/10/14 years’ service without any pension obligation to GoI.

For the purpose of analysis, it is assumed that the men on ToD of 3/5 years, have the same entry level qualification, same selection criteria, same training duration, same posting profile and salary as the regular Army recruit. It is also assumed that the strength of regular Army will be offset in same numbers as the number of men on ToD. However, what is not clear is the number of men who will be absorbed in the CAPF after the termination of ToD.

With respect to the men who may be absorbed in the CAPF or PSUs, the earlier financial analysis of Inverse Induction Model will apply, albeit for a 3/5-year duration instead of 7 years. Thus, there will be no overall financial savings to the GoI while training budget of Army will go up. The other collateral effects, ie impact on operational effectiveness and unit cohesion will have to be studied separately with appropriate models once details of the employment, manning and posting profile which is envisaged for the men on ToD is known.

In case, these men are to be let off after 3/5 years with a severance package, then this amount, handed over on an annual basis, has to be compared with the annual pension contribution for those numbers of regular Army OR, to determine the savings, if any to the GoI. However, the future career prospects of these ex-ToD personnel, with most of them likely to be only matriculates (10^th) will remain. The jobs which can be made available to such personnel in the private sector will perforce be restricted to those at the lowest rung of the ladder, and the pay and emoluments they will receive will be far lower than what they were authorised while in ToD service.

There is also a possibility of these men being let off without any absorption and severance package, which will restrict their ability to start small scale enterprises on their own. The popularity of such a scheme will hence be eroded and may become unsustainable after a few years.

Concept of ToD: Is it borne out of the Myths of Defence Budget

From the analysis above, it is evident that the concept of ToD is unlikely to result in considerable revenue savings to the GoI, unless the ToD personnel are left to fend for themselves after termination of their 3/5 years tenure or are given lower emoluments as compared to regular army recruits. Even in the latter case, there is going to be a tradeoff between limited savings (computation has to await full clarity on the concept) and the operational effectiveness, motivational levels and cohesion within a unit. In any case, even if savings are likely to accrue, that will only come about after 15 years, when the total number of pensioners will start to decline each year, and will eventually reach a constant after about 18 years.

There are several myths associated with the defence budget. In a developing nation, there will always be concerns that the defence budget is eating into the resources of the nation, which could be better spent on other sectors. However, for a nation facing all round security challenges, not taking adequate protective measures will be a sure long-term recipe for disaster and economic ruin.

A more suitable metric is to view defence allocation as a percentage of GDP or as a percentage of total central government expenditure. For India, the defence allocation (excluding pensions) stands at approx 1.45% of GDP and has shown a gradual decline over the decades. This does not mean that in real terms, there has been a reduction in defence expenditure. An analysis of the defence budget over the last few decades indicates that the defence budget has been continuously rising in real terms, even if the rise is not very substantial. This is simply indicative of a higher rate of growth which enables high allocation to defence in real terms. Instead of fixing defence expenditure to a percentage of GDP, it is for consideration whether keeping defence expenditure constant as a total of overall government expenditure would be a better and more viable option.

With respect to the salary and pension bill of defence personnel, It is also to be understood that defence pensions rise in the same manner as other central government employees, the salary and DA structure being largely common. Thus, when experts talk of not enough funds left for modernisation of defence forces due to ever increasing revenue expenditure, they miss the essential point that the real reason is continuous compression of defence budget as a percentage of GDP or as a percentage of total defence expenditure. One may recall, that during the UPA regime, the then Prime Minister, Shri Man Mohan Singh made a statement that endeavour of his government will be to raise the defence allocation to 3% of GDP. But despite such a declaration, there was no real push for force modernisation and the military suffered great neglect during the ten years that Dr Singh was at the helm of affairs as Prime Minister—that is the period 2004-2014.

As far as pension budget is concerned, it is worthwhile to mention that average per capita pension of defence personnel is much lower than a central government civilian employee. The defence pension budget, however, is big in absolute numbers due to large number of retired personnel, which itself is a function of soldiers being compulsorily retired early from 36 years age onwards owing to the need to meet the requirement of maintaining a young and physically fit Armed Forces.

If we look at the overall revenue expenditure on salary and pension bill of defence personnel, a study has shown that life time earnings (pay and pension till average life expectancy of 70 years) of a civilian central government employee is about 60% higher than a corresponding pay grade defence employee. This simply indicates that the pay and pension bill of the Armed Forces cannot be construed to be exorbitant and a factor in constraining the modernisation effort. Clearly the cause lies elsewhere.

Another myth which abounds is that defence personnel get pension from the government, while civilians (post 2004) are on National Pension Scheme (NPS) and do not contribute to pension liability of the government. The fact is that the government contributes to pension of defence personnel as well as civilian employees (10% of basic pay every month). The difference is only conceptual; while the defence pension system is on “Cash Accounting System,” the NPS is based on the “Accrual System”. Defence pensions have to continue in its existing form as NPS is not suitable for employees who start retiring from the age of 36 years onwards. However, another study on NPS vs defence pension system has shown that if defence personnel also serve for 54 years age or more, NPS may be a preferable system to even the OROP which they are presently entitled to.

With all the data-based studies pointing to the inferences outlined above, the question arises that is there a requirement of conceptualising schemes like ToD or are there better alternatives available within the existing paradigm? But before a holistic view of the issues involved is taken, it is essential to correct the misperceptions on defence budget and revenue expenditure including salary and pensions. Evidently, there is a parallax error in the popular perception about the Defence Budget and its constituents.

Optimising Defence Expenditure

Perhaps a better course of action would be to have a holistic overview of the entire defence expenditure, with a view to determining how this expenditure can be optimised, instead of keeping the focus on just reducing the pension component of the budget. Some of the factors which lead to rising costs are poor decision making, wasteful production techniques, reliance on imports, enabling the private sector, strengthening the defence industrial base, emphasis on quality control, opening up the entire defence sector for exports and privatising at least some of the defence public sector undertakings.

The Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) has been done away with and in its place, the 41 Ordnance Factories (OF) which it controlled have been converted into 7 Defence Public Sector Undertakings. This step was long overdue but was resisted by the unions. The various governments at the Centre, over the years, bowed to the wishes of these employees. This civilian component, by itself constitutes a sizeable chunk of manpower and resources which could be privatised. The OF were a loss-making enterprise, producing shoddy goods at inflated cost and employing manpower, far in excess of requirement. The government now needs to go beyond the bold decision it has taken as far as corporatisation of the erstwhile OFB is concerned. Some of these unproductive units need to be closed down or privatised, some could be retained and some could be handed over to the Ministry of industry, where these units could compete with the private sector on a level playing field. Reforms here, by themselves will do much to reduce costs, making more money available for the modernisation effort.

Labour productivity in all the DPSU’s need to be analysed. As an example, production costs of manufacturing indigenous fighter aircraft is abnormally high. The same goes for ship building, manufacture of heavy weapon systems, etc. Improved labour productivity will lead to dramatic reduction in costs, making more funds available for making up critical deficiencies.

A revamping of the total civil manpower on the rolls of the defence ministry would also be in order. It is not that well known that the defence civilian work force numbers around 4 lakh personnel.^[3] Of the 1.2 lakh crore defence pension bill, a substantial part is paid out to these defence civilians. Reducing the civilian work force will ipso facto have an impact on reducing the revenue budget, making more funds available for force modernisation. This by itself will result in far greater savings than any other single measure. The civilian defence component of the Armed Forces is what can be called the tail in the teeth to tail ratio. However, the tail is wrongly construed to be the logistic component of the military. This must be corrected. As a start, it would be beneficial if the Ministry of Defence published yearly figures of the total number of defence civilians on its payrolls, the break-up of such a work force and the pension outlays to such personnel.

Savings can also be accrued with intangible factors such as improved decision making. Poor decision making has in the past led to production delays, delayed acquisitions and a phenomenal increase in costs. Within the military, improved logistic procedures will also do a world of good in bringing down holding costs of equipment, stores, spare parts etc.

Finally, there is a downslide in the ToD system, which needs to be factored in. This pertains to the state of morale of ToD troops, which could be a vital factor in war. In Afghanistan, the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF) fell like a house of cards to the Taliban, primarily because they were composed of conscripts, who had to serve a short time in the Army. When the chips were down, they exhibited no will to fight. We need to be careful of what we attempt to do with the troops of the Indian Army. This is the final bastion of the nation. If the Army fails, the nation does not survive and that is a possibility which we can never ever allow to happen. A sufficiently large percentage ToD soldiers, after their term is over are unlikely to find a job which they find suitable. What happens if some of them become soldiers of fortune, trying their luck with anti-national forces and organisations! We cannot wish such possibilities away. There will also be a separate set of challenges for the Commanding Officers, which need to be factored in.

Conclusion

The ToD concept can at best have a limited impact on defence pension outlays, which will start manifesting only after 15 years. The downside of such a proposal is the impact it will have on operational efficiency and the challenges which may accrue in dealing with a large number of trained military personnel, who have no suitable employment after their ToD has been completed. It would hence be better to look at the entire matter in a holistic manner, especially in terms of what Prime Minister Modi has consistently been emphasising and that is to strengthen the defence industrial base, making India truly atmanirbhar in defence production. Combine this with weapon exports and we have a total game changer at hand. Here, we also need to look into the German Mittelstand, which became a model of economic success. For something like that to succeed in India we need a very proactive bureaucracy which acts as an enabler, supporting such enterprises. Unfortunately, as of now, the private sector is hampered by India’s bureaucratic maze, which makes many entrepreneurs simply shut shop and move off to other countries where their talents are better appreciated.^[4]

If the ToD concept has to be tried out, let us make a start with the Territorial Army.  That would be a better test bed than carrying out such experiments with the field force. We would do well to remember that while future warfare will have a large component of non-contact warfare, the physical blood and gore of war fighting will still remain a constant. For the non-contact part of warfare, getting individuals on short term contracts from the private sector at various levels may also be an option which could be examined, especially in the new emerging field of cyber warfare, artificial intelligence (AI) robotics, et al.

A holistic long-term view will give the Indian Armed Forces the capability and wherewithal to defend the nation against external threats. Fiddling with the system keeping only the financial aspects in mind could lead to unmitigated disaster in the long run. We have suffered foreign invaders ruling over our land over the last millennium. We cannot traverse that path again. Let us also remember that there is a cost to maintaining a young army. The nation has to be prepared to pay that cost.

Author Brief Bio:

Lt Gen Kapil Kumar Aggarwal, AVSM, SM, VSM retired as the Director General, Electronics and Mechanical Engineering. Earlier, he was the Chairman, Army Pay Commission Cell. He is a Post Graduate Engineer from IIT Kharagpur and also an alumnus of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington.

Maj Gen Dhruv C Katoch, is Director, India Foundation and Editor, India Foundation Journal.

References:

^[1] https://takshashila.org.in/takshashilas-inverse-induction-model-being-considered-for-future-recruitments-in-the-army/

^[2] https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/reducing-armys-pension-bill-proceed-caution

^[3] 2016 data, available at https://doe.gov.in/sites/default/files/PayAllowance2016-17%28English%29.pdf

^[4] Note 2.