On 09 Sep 2023, the leaders of the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, Italy and the European Union entered into an Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in order to work together to develop a new India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor^[i]. This was announced at the G20 Leaders’ event on the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment in Delhi. As per the MOU^[ii], the corridor is expected to stimulate economic development through enhanced connectivity and economic integration across two continents. It aims to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth in the region. In this context, it is relevant to carry out an examination of the geo-economic and geopolitical potential of this project, what it means to participating nations and the challenges it faces.

Potential of The Corridor

The IMEC has two components. The East Corridor connects India to the Middle-East and Gulf countries. The Northern Corridor connects the Middle-East to Europe^[iii]. It is an extensive network which integrates a railway corridor, a hydrogen pipeline, and high-density optical fibre cables. The corridor is expected to facilitate the development and export of clean energy; lay undersea cables and link energy grids and telecommunication lines to expand reliable access to electricity; enable innovation of advanced clean energy technology; and connect communities with secure and stable Internet. The corridor, envisions driving existing trade and manufacturing, strengthening food security and integrating supply chains. The participating nations aim to unlock new investments, including from the private sector, and spur the creation of employment through enhanced business opportunities. From an Indian point of view there will be a seamless logistical corridor linking India to southern Europe. The corridor has the potential to ramp up the economies of the nations and have great geo-economic and geopolitical consequences.

The corridor is being envisaged by nations who have the ability to invest based on a felt need.  Very importantly, most of the nations are allied ^[iv] to each other or are in a strategic partnership^[v],^[vi]. This must be seen against the fact that it is exactly the opposite of CPEC/BRI where China has been the dominant partner as a lender with a weaker nation as a borrower entity. Very often, the BRI has been synonymous with the Debt Trap diplomacy of China^[vii]. ‘Mutual benefit’ of the participating nations is an important driver of the IMEC.  As an extension, another important aspect of IMEC is that all participating nations are in it for diversification or expansion of their geo-economic interests. A major fallout of IMEC will be that the CPEC/BRI has a competing alternative. Other nations can choose from the available alternatives for their development.

Strategic Factors

The Iran-Saudi peace deal was seen as a major victory for China^[viii]. Consequently, it was also being seen that the Chinese influence in the region had increased to the detriment of USA and India. It is a considered opinion that, IMEC will largely neutralise China’s undue influence in the region when it is established.

The second aspect which merits consideration is that the security of the corridor will be the responsibility of the participating nations. As a result, the security of the maritime segment between India and the Gulf will devolve largely on the USA and India. Resultantly, it will be a major counter to the increasing Chinese maritime presence in the Arabian Sea. It will also prevent the China-Pakistan combine from militarising Gwadar beyond a point. In fact, the participation of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia in this project completely outflanks Pakistan and becomes a dampener on its hybrid activities. This will benefit India immensely.

The third aspect of the corridor is that it by passes the troubled regions of West Asia, namely Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. The fourth aspect is that the corridor avoids the congested Suez Canal and is expected to reduce the transit time between India and Europe by 40 per cent and transportation costs by 30 per cent^[ix]. Overall, there is optimism that IMEC will result in enhanced logistical efficiency, lowering business costs, promoting economic unity, create jobs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The hope and expectation is that it will lead to an integrative transformation across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

Indian Perspective

The IMEC opens up many vistas for India. Its soft power and large diaspora in the Middle-East can be leveraged to accrue great all-round advantage. The corridor holds promise of cementing India’s energy security and serving as a market for Indian goods. India gains strategically since its presence will exert greater influence over the Indian Ocean and potentially expand its reach into the Mediterranean Sea.

Traditionally, it was always thought that India’s interests were from the Gulf of Aden to The Malacca Straits^[x]. IMEC will expand India’s sphere of influence. It will hereafter extend far beyond the horn of Africa. Resultantly, India will become a significant player in the Middle East geopolitics. India’s influence in North Africa is also bound to increase. It also brings Israel and the eastern Mediterranean into India’s neighbourhood^[xi]. As India’s strategic foot print increases, its economic presence will grow.

The IMEC will provide plenty of opportunity for infrastructure construction and development. There will be new rail lines, gas pipelines, energy grids and data links/cables which will flow along the corridor. Indian expertise in establishing, constructing, running and maintaining such infrastructure will be critical to the success of the project. India’s experience in infrastructure development at affordable and reasonable costs will ensure that Indian firms are continually engaged in this area.

The corridor provides a viable alternative to International North-South Transport Corridor through Iran and Russia that was conceived at the turn of the century but has not made progress for one reason or the other. In fact it has not even got off the ground^[xii]. It will give India an alternate route to trade with Europe.

While IMEC will boost trade between EU and India significantly, trade with the Gulf countries is set to boom. Trade between India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – comprising Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain – has already surged, reaching US$154.7 billion in the 2021-22 financial year. This is a 77 per cent year-on-year increment^[xiii]. Overall, IMEC is a good trade proposition for India even if it is implemented partially.

India’s relations with the Kingdom of Saudi have expanded exponentially in the recent past. The recently concluded state visit by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS)^[xiv],^[xv] when seen in conjunction with the recently concluded G20 Summit in India and the MOU on IMEC underscores this aspect. A joint working group (JWG)^[xvi] is expected to be set up to handle the US$100 billion investments promised by Saudi Arabia in 2019. This was halted due to the pandemic and is likely to be revived now. IMEC and this deal will feed off each other to get due momentum. This will be a game changer in many ways. It also signals a change to people in Kashmir which will quieten down once Saudi investments are grounded in India.

The IMEC will provide a secure flank to India in the Arabian Sea. The enhanced importance and geopolitical implications of IMEC being a multilateral effort will provide inherent security to India in this area. It virtually rules out interruption of energy supplies and trade activity to the West. It will reduce the chances of any misadventure by either Pakistan or China. They will have to think twice before any maverick activity.

Gulf and Saudi Interests

It is widely being recognised that availability of fossil fuels is finite and one day they will no more be available. If the oil producing countries do not diversify, one day they will wake up to find that their economies have no tomorrow. In this milieu, the countries of the Middle East have a great opportunity to diversify from their fossil fuel-based economies. IMEC provides them adequate scope for transforming from being primarily oil exporters to becoming global hubs for tourism, investment and logistics. These commodity-based economies have been trying to diversify into ‘alternate economy’ channels and increase their share in the service sectors of global economy. IMEC gives them a great opportunity to embark on such new paths.

Hitherto-fore, the Gulf has seen global trade flow past it in the South through the Suez Canal or in the North through Turkey. The IMEC gives a golden chance for the Gulf Countries to be the hub and transit link between Asian and European economies for the first time in their history. Such corridors invariably also provide inherent opportunity for the diversification they seek. They are unlikely to let go of this chance.

The cash rich Gulf countries need avenues for investment in the global arena and specially in India which is a growing market with tremendous economic potential. Additionally, most of these nations have deep and traditional links with India. More importantly they are food deficient. They need the huge bread basket of India to resolve their food security issues which will be endemic.  This factor alone will drive up the chances of the IMEC coming into being.

The IMEC and its attendant geopolitics gives them a major alternative from being enmeshed and entrapped in the ‘secretive’ Chinese global development and security initiatives. From a very fundamental point of view, the Gulf Sheikhdoms will not give up on their monarchist capitalist model of rule. Too close an association with China brings in danger of communist thinking. Further they will not like to be seen in one camp or the other. When seen from this perspective, IMEC gives them a great opportunity to hedge between big powers and blaze their own diplomatic trail.

The IMEC also carries the promise, even if it is faint, of peace in the Arab world. If IMEC must succeed, Israel has to be part of the deal. Hence, there has to be a climate of peace even if it is grudgingly accepted. However, in the larger sense, the Gulf nations seem to be realising that they have to move towards peaceful co-existence if they are to progress, even if some indications are to the contrary^[xvii].

The US Angle  

In May 2023, during the summit in Hiroshima, Japan, G7 leaders affirmed their commitment to identify new opportunities to scale the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). This US initiative aims to mobilise US$ 600 billion over the next five years in global infrastructure investments to make a difference in people’s lives around the world, strengthen and diversify supply chains, and advance shared national security interests^[xviii].

IMEC is the first major project under the US PGII umbrella. It is also a direct counter to China’s BRI in the region^[xix]. Inroads made by China through the BRI were starting to adversely affect US influence in the region. The IMEC serves to regain the Middle East/Gulf for the USA and reaffirm its global dominance.  This is specially important since the USA was seen to be losing ground to China after the Iran–Saudi peace deal.

A major factor in the IMEC is that it opens a gateway to Europe. It was widely believed that the EU nations suffered due to the Ukraine war as their energy and trade links with Russia were broken at the behest of USA. This has been an underlying irritant in US -EU relations. This gateway compensates EU for the rupture in its linkages with Russia. If this corridor is successful, the US cause and influence as a leader gets a major boost.

The IMEC serves another major purpose of security. Inevitably, this corridor will bring relative stability and peace in the region. It will also result in a new and shared security architecture in this region. The evolving architecture will necessarily be multi-lateral in which all participating nations will contribute. A new rules-based order will be implemented in the region to promote stability. This will serve to free up US forces for the Western Pacific in its effort to contain China. IMEC serves the larger Indo-Pacific cause and increases US global influence.

EU Interests

The EU has backed the IMEC plan which links Europewith the Middle East and India via rail and sea^[xx]. It has been described as much more than just a railway or a cable. It is well known that EU has over-invested in China. However, the EU-China relations are fraying^[xxi]. EU has increased its efforts to   de risk and pivot away from China. It sees India as the global alternative to China. This corridor could speed up and enhance trade as well as investment between India and Europe.

The corridor also has the potential to offset the dependence of EU nations on Russia for their energy needs. It provides EU with energy security and alters European geopolitical dynamics. The IMEC also provides a direct connect to the Gulf and India without intermediaries like Turkey or Egypt which have held them hostage for many reasons.

Israeli Interests

Many in Israel see the IMEC as a path towards normalisation of its relations with Saudi Arabia and the larger Arab world ^[xxii]. This diplomacy is a keystone of the US strategy to bring lasting peace in the Middle East. Despite reluctance to make peace with Israel officially, the Saudis have already signalled that they are amenable to peace with it. In fact, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone to the extent of saying that the IMEC is a “cooperation project that is the greatest in our history … [and which] takes us to a new era of regional and global integration and cooperation, unprecedented and unique in its scope”. The next major dividend for Israel will be that it gets an opportunity to monetise its technological prowess specially in the food and communication sector. Last but not the least, they will get direct economic benefit due to a jump in Haifa Port volumes.

Turkish Viewpoint

Turkey sees the IMEC as bypassing it completely. Turkey stands to lose its status as the primary link between the east and west and the silk pathways.^[xxiii] Turkey wants to maintain its long-standing position as a major transit hub for commodities moving from Asia to Europe. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has gone as far as to declare that “there can be no corridor without Turkey” and that “the most appropriate route for trade from east to west must pass through Turkey”. Turkey not only sees itself losing economically but also sees its strategic value in the Islamic world going down. However, given the current financial condition^[xxiv], Turkey cannot contribute to any financial stake into the IMEC and will count on the Gulf nations to come to its rescue. That does not seem to be happening.

Food security and India-Middle East Food Corridor

The onset of climate change, realignment of global politics and Ukraine war has brought forth the stark fact that food security is essential for national and human security. Nations have been taking steps to ensure their food security for an uncertain future. In this context, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Israel, and India are creating an India-Middle East Food Corridor^[xxv]. This initiative is part of the larger I2U2 formulation. This will inevitably be subsumed into the IMEC and will form an important constituent of the project.

The Food Corridor is a resilient value chain already developing quietly under the radar. It envisages synergising commercial and technological strengths of India, Israel and UAE to create a food exporting powerhouse. The technologies used are visualised to be innovative and climate adaptive. The food corridor is being developed organically between the three nations. The initiative is based on investments through the private sector or through bilateral public-private partnerships / joint ventures

The fundamental facts driving the Food Corridor are three facetted. The first is that the Arab and Gulf states need to enhance their food security. It is a strategic need for them which will only become more acute with the onset of climate change. India’s strategic imperative is to increase the value of its food production. The second facet is that India is a net food exporter whose value is under par. Despite being the world’s second-largest food producer when measured^[xxvi] by calorie content, it ranks fourth when measured by the total value of agricultural production. Further, India processes less than 10% of its agricultural output^[xxvii]. In a situation of high production levels and low processing rates, the food corridor presents huge opportunities for India. It is worth noting that more than 1/10^th of India’s workforce is employed in the food-processing sector. India’s strategic priority includes developing higher value-added secondary food processing as well as logistics that prevent distribution loss through efficient integration from farm to retail outlets. Thirdly, Israel’s contribution to the food corridor also derives from Israeli-Indian cooperation in innovative technologies and promotion of start-ups. Significantly on 14 July 2022, during the first “I2U2” heads of government summit, the food corridor featured prominently.

Energy Security

As sources and reserves of energy dwindle, the requirement of energy for sustainment as also development of all economies will increase. Hence there is a need to find new sources of clean energy. Simultaneously there is also a need to redistribute, optimise and use existing sources of energy. This is especially important in energy deficient large economies of Europe and India. In this context, the Middle East becomes very crucial in future from two viewpoints. In the current environment, it will continue to be one of the main sources of fossil fuel energy. Accordingly, transportation of fossil fuel and gas energy to Europe and India through an integrated pipeline/tanker transportation system is envisaged in IMEC in the current times. This will give relief to EU nations, in the short term, which have suffered dearth of energy due to Ukraine war.  In the long term the IMEC is betting on Green Hydrogen, which is expected to be a game changer.

Green hydrogen is produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen by electrolysis^[xxviii]. The hydrogen so produced is completely carbon free. The oxygen is vented into the atmosphere with no negative impact. However, to achieve electrolysis, electricity is needed. This process to make Green Hydrogen needs to be powered by renewable energy sources, such as wind or solar. It then makes Green Hydrogen the cleanest option since it is generated from renewable energy sources without any trace of Carbon in the process. The Hydrogen so produced can be compressed and transported through pipelines as shown in the picture above. The Middle East which is a rich source of renewable and untapped solar energy will be utilised for generating Green Hydrogen through technologies being currently developed. Most countries which have a high demand of energy are increasingly looking at Green Hydrogen. India is betting big on it with its national hydrogen mission^[xxix].  For countries in the temperate belt, Green Hydrogen produced in the tropics will be invaluable. At that time, the IMEC will come into its own.

The Shape of IMECAs IMEC unfolds, the following will be prominently visible

• Digital connectivity through a transcontinental fibre-optic network between the regions involved. This will usher in a new era of digitalised inter-operability.
• Transmission cables and pipelines which run alongside the proposed port, rail and road corridor.
• Supply chain integration through joint manufacturing ventures between public and private sector partners. These could be intra-national or international in nature.
• Food production, processing and supply chains.
• Increased mutual dependence on the nations of IMEC.
• A new security architecture in the region.
  

Prospects of the IMEC

The IMEC could well succeed where earlier corridors including the BRI could not. There are many reasons for this. At the outset th I2U2 coalition of India–UAE–Israel–US has been making steady progress. It provides a basic sheet anchor for the IMEC to build upon. The IMEC and I2U2 would be complimentary to each other. This is a corridor of willing nations in which each brings a niche speciality to the table for mutually benefitting outcomes. Further all of them have the capability to invest into the venture. Everyone will have skin in the game. They also in strategic partnerships or are allies with experience of working with each other. It appears that some ground work is being laid by a consortium of Emirati firms, wh have already begun work on developing a US$7 billion logistics and distribution network for theenvisaged India-Middle East food corridor. Most importantly, there is an existing infrastructure frame work which can be built upon. The overall emphasis is not on the basics but in looking ahead for the future.

Macro Comparison with BRI

Already there are comparisons being made between the IMEC and BRI. That is to be expected and natural. The essence of the IMEC tends to get lost sight of in doing so. Some issues have been highlighted earlier and are not being repeated. However, a macro comparison is of value. In terms of scope, the BRI is vast and global with a predominantly China centric orientation. As it has panned out, the benefits of BRI, if any, have accrued to China only. Very few projects have benefitted host countries, which are invariably poor with weak economies. In fact, most host countries are being left with unviable projects and heavy debts which they have to repay China through geopolitical equity. On the other hand, the IMEC seems to be grounded on better diligence taking into consideration the issues pertinent to all participating countries. Further, the BRI is largely a bilateral arrangement with a host nation and China, despite being global in scale. On the other hand, IMEC is a multinational arrangement with far greater transparency based on felt needs of all participating nations. Conceptually, it is futuristic in orientation since it aims to address issues pertaining to energy and food security as climate change is making its presence felt.  Overall, there is a lot more value in the IMEC as one looks into the future.

Challenges

Like with all other multinational enterprises, there is a lot of scepticism^[xxx]. There are questions on the economic viability of IMEC^[xxxi]. Some views suggest that the benefits of this project are more political than economic. To that extent, there is always the possibility of a geopolitical event putting a spanner in the works and derailing the project. Internal differences between nations like the lack of official diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel and traditional West Asian politics can undermine the project. Further, such projects make great optics in conferences but have a tendency to fizzle out in the long run. The sheer number of countries and the complexity of unravelling international and internal politics, policies and cultures will remain a challenge for IMEC to constantly overcome.

Conclusion  

There is no doubt that the IMEC has tremendous geo-economic and geopolitical potential from any perspective. There is everything to gain for participating countries. It appears there has been a lot of ground work already laid out by I2U2 and the India-Israel-UAE food corridor. Hence the platform exists. Therefore, there is every reason to be optimistic. At the same time the project like all other mega projects has too many cooks who can spoil the broth. It provides a tremendous opportunity for India to become a global player in its own right. It has great potential to ramp up our economy. Most importantly, the project will benefit India even if it is partially successful. As for the rest, one has to wait and watch.

Author Brief Bio:Lt Gen P R Shankar, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (R) is a retired Director General of Artillery. He is an alumnus of National Defence Academy Khadakvasala, Defence Services Staff College, Wellington, Army War College, Mhow, Naval Post Graduate School, Monterrey and National Defence College, New Delhi. He has held many important command, staff and instructional appointments in the Army.

^[i]https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/09/fact-sheet-world-leaders-launch-a-landmark-india-middle-east-europe-economic-corridor/

^[ii]https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Project-Gateway-Multilateral-MOU.pdf

^[iii]https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/a-corridor-of-immense-promise/article67296263.ece

^[iv]https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/united-states-allies

^[v]https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Indias-strategic-partnerships_tbl1_302559073

^[vi]https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-and-india-deepening-our-strategic-partnership/

^[vii]https://asiatimes.com/2023/09/chinas-double-edged-belt-and-road-debt-trap/#:~:text=The%20alleged%20lack%20of%20transparency,this%20is%20an%20unfounded%20myth.

^[viii]https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213625/chinas-saudi-iran-deal-clear-victory-its-global-push-be-force-peace

^[ix]https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/a-corridor-of-immense-promise/article67296263.ece

^[x]https://www.indiatoday.in/india/north/story/india-prepared-to-intervene-in-south-china-sea-navy-chief-123202-2012-12-02

^[xi]https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3235497/why-indias-new-us-backed-trade-corridor-europe-no-anti-china-project-middle-east?module=more_top_stories_int&pgtype=homepage

^[xii]https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/north-south-transport-corridor-connecting-continents/article66875206.ece

^[xiii]https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3235497/why-indias-new-us-backed-trade-corridor-europe-no-anti-china-project-middle-east?module=more_top_stories_int&pgtype=homepage

^[xiv]https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/not-just-oil-8954345/

^[xv]https://indianexpress.com/article/india/saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-pm-modi-president-murmu-ceremonial-reception-rashtrapati-bhavan-8934335/

^[xvi]https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-saudi-arabia-to-speed-up-kingdom-s-100-billion-investment-plan-101694444845438.html

^[xvii]https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/09/india-middle-east-europe-corridor-unlikely-boost-saudi-israel-normalization

^[xviii]https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/20/fact-sheet-partnership-for-global-infrastructure-and-investment-at-the-g7-summit/

^[xix]https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/09/india-middle-east-europe-corridor-unlikely-boost-saudi-israel-normalization

^[xx]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/09/g20-eu-and-us-back-trade-corridor-linking-europe-middle-east-and-india

^[xxi]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3235774/china-warns-eu-show-restraint-when-seeking-counter-beijings-trade-tactics?module=more_top_stories_int&pgtype=homepage

^[xxii]https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/09/india-middle-east-europe-corridor-unlikely-boost-saudi-israel-normalization

^[xxiii]https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/turkey-proposes-alternative-to-india-middle-east-trade-corridor-11383891.html

^[xxiv]https://www.cfr.org/blog/turkeys-increasing-balance-sheet-risks

^[xxv]https://www.mei.edu/publications/india-middle-east-food-corridor-how-uae-israel-and-india-are-forging-new-inter

^[xxvi]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-20-agricultural-producing-countries-151350776.html

^[xxvii]https://face-cii.in/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Food-Processing-Report-2019.pdf

^[xxviii]https://www.petrofac.com/media/stories-and-opinion/the-difference-between-green-hydrogen-and-blue-hydrogen/

^[xxix]https://www.india.gov.in/spotlight/national-green-hydrogen-mission

^[xxx]https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/head-on-why-the-india-middle-east-europe-corridor-is-a-geopolitical-game-changer-13165752.html

^[xxxi]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/imec-makes-great-political-sense-but-is-it-economically-viable/articleshow/103892850.cms?from=mdr

‘Ayang nijangparovati, Ganana laghu chetasam,
Udarcharitana tu, vasudaivakutumbakam’,
(‘This is mine, this is yours, This thinking is for the narrow minded.
It is only for the generous hearted that the earth is one family’.)

India that is Bharat’s G 20 message, flowing from the Maha Upanishads, resonates in today’s conflicted and divided world: Coinciding with the beginning of ‘Amritkaal’ or the next 25 years after the 75^th anniversary of India’s independence, the motto underlined that the presidency would be both futuristic and inclusive.

The G 20 represents an emerging order far more representative than a bitterly divided Security Council. It brings the G7 together with other major economies as equal partners. The G20 has evolved over time into one of the most powerful economic and financial groupings. At present, it comprises 85% of global GDP, 75% of international trade and two/thirds of the global population.

India hosted the G 20 Summit on 9^th and 10^th September 2023 in New Delhi. On 1^st December 23, India will formally hand over the presidency to Brazil. A virtual Summit is planned under India’s Presidency on November 23 to review the resolutions and recommendations from the Summit.

Our Presidency ensured that India’s perspective on issues of vital national importance was duly incorporated in the global financial narrative. At the same time, under PM Modi’s inspiring leadership, India became the voice of the Global South within the G 20. It was our consistent position that the core mandate of the G 20 was to promote economic growth and development. Therefore, the crucial concerns of the Global South needed to be addressed. There was a strong compulsion to create more resilient and reliable supply chains.

As the G 20 President, India identified, highlighted, developed and strengthened international support for priorities of vital importance for the Global South in diverse social and economic sectors, ranging from energy, agriculture, trade, digital economy, health and environment, to employment, tourism, anti-corruption and women’s empowerment. In the discussions among G 20 partners leading up to the Summit, India thus represented the voice of the Global South.

India argued that a more just, equitable and participative global order can only be achieved with investment, trade and technology decisions directed at the Global South. India ensured that the African Union would have a permanent seat at the table at the Summit.

It is clear that India was not just at the High Table but actually shaping concerns of the Global South and finding ways to address them in specific ways, not in opposition to the West but in conjunction with the West. This was also in line with EAM Dr. S. Jaishankar making a strong pitch at the B-20 Summit, organised by the CII, preceding the G 20 Summitfor “a more diversified and more democratic” re-globalisation.

We took over the Presidency at a challenging and watershed moment coinciding with a period of flux internationally. The Russia Ukraine conflict vitiated relations between Russia and the industrialised West, most of which are members of the G 20. The conflict and the resulting unilateral sanctions imposed by the West upset the post pandemic global recovery and raised oil and gas prices as well as food availability. As always, the impact has been felt by the Global South, traditionally the most vulnerable.

Soon after the Summit, the international scenario became more complicated. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau’s ridiculous allegations against India in the Canadian Parliament, followed by efforts to persuade friendly Western Governments and India’s strategic partners, notably the USA, to take positions, resulted in Indian diplomacy confronting its most serious challenge in recent times. India not only clarified its stance in public, but also found a ‘modus vivendi’ around the issue with American policy makers in public.

On October 7^th, 23, Hamas carried out a surprise attack on Israel on an unprecedented scale, firing thousands of rockets, infiltrating militants into Israeli territory and taking an unknown number of hostages. It was almost 50 years to the day after the surprise Arab attack on Israel that launched the so called Yom Kippur War in 1973. Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israel was “at war”. It dealt a huge blow to the on-going process of the Arab world coming to terms with Israel including a possible peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

It also cast a long shadow on the much-hyped India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor announced on the last day of the G 20 Summit. The corridor would promote economic development and inter-regional connectivity and would become a viable American counter to the failed Chinese BRI. The MOU has mapped out the potential geography of the corridor from India to Europe, through UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Greece. Clearly, there are some countries who wish to sabotage the corridor.

Before and during the Summit, India sought to find pragmatic global solutions for these challenges. In doing so, India utilised its soft power in good measure. Her soft power, as disseminated through her inclusive cultural and civilisation heritage across millennia, has demonstrated that her values of tolerance, inclusiveness and cross fertilisation of cultures are more important than ever before in today’s troubled world. India used the G 20 Presidency to make culture the force to connect, to build relations and to heal the ruptures created by history and politics.

In the weeks leading up to the Summit, anddespite meticulous preparation, India’s main challenge was the Ukraine-Russia conflict being a possible spoiler. How big a challenge was the elusive consensus on the Russia Ukraine conflict?

President Putin personally informed PM Modi that he would be represented by his Foreign Minister Lavrov. The other important leaders, including President Biden, confirmed their participation. China’s Xi Jinping did not attend and was represented by the Foreign Minister. The absence of consensus on a paragraph in the Summit document on the seemingly intractable Russia Ukraine conflict remained a real concern in the run-up to the Summit.

Against all odds, the presidency succeeded in obtaining agreement on an issue which has till today eluded consensus in the Security Council. The success of the Summit and the adoption of the New Delhi Declaration by consensus confirmed, if such confirmation was required, of India’s emergence as a major player on the global stage, with the ability to adjust and reconcile seemingly intractable issues, being acceptable as a negotiator to all sides.

India’s Sherpa Amitabh Kant said: “When we started the Presidency, the PM said that India’s Presidency should be inclusive, decisive and action –oriented. The Declaration has 83 paragraphs, and all have 100% consensus”. On the Ukraine issue, the Indian Presidency, in a balancing act, interwoven with remarkable drafting and negotiating skills, demonstrated that the Indian Foreign Service had come of age.

The section on geopolitics has 8 paras, compared to 2 on ‘Ukraine’ in Bali, and is titled ‘For the planet, peace and prosperity’. It begins by recognising the ‘immense human suffering and the adverse impact of wars and conflicts around the world’. It then specifically mentions Ukraine, recalls the Bali discussions, and refers to the UN resolutions on the issue. It stresses that all States must abide by the UN Charter and adds ‘All States must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any State’. This is an important face saver but is balanced by the next line which speaks of the unacceptability of the use or threat of nuclear weapons. India then brought in the Black Sea Grain Initiative which accommodates both the Russian and Ukrainian perspectives on the issue.

The text goes on to say that the G 20 is a forum to discuss international economic cooperation but also recognises that ‘geopolitical and security issues’ can have ‘significant consequences for the global economy’. Its immediate adoption marked the high point of the Presidency. Immediately after the successful adoption of the New Delhi Declaration by consensus, Sherpa Amitabh Kant in ‘Times of India’ noted:“Modi envisages India as an impassioned interlocutor between the developed world and the Global South and we have delivered on this”. He added: “The rich democratic ideals and cultural elements of India infused life into the Presidency, across 220 meetings held in 60 cities covering every State and UT. With over 100,000 delegates and participants across these meetings, this truly became a Presidency representative of diversity”.

In his book ‘The India Way’ EAM pointed out: “This is a time for India to engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia, bring Japan into play, draw neighbours in, expand the neighbourhood, and expand traditional constituencies of support”. As G 20 President, India succeeded on all these fronts. India’s Presidency came at a watershed moment coinciding with a period of flux internationally. The global community was facing multiple challenges, politically and economically. At a time of conflict and uncertainty, India under PM Modi gave a unique perspective for the strengthening of international peace and security.

Despite the new challenges highlighted earlier, there are several international trends which favour India’s approach to a multi-polar world, balanced by a network of conflicting or congruent interests. The world is exhausted by the Russia/Ukraine conflict. As of end September 23, US have sent $76 billion to Kiev since January 22, with over US$ 46 billion in military aid. It is clear that this seemingly limitless flow of aid cannot continue. There are troubling reports of corruption at high levels in Ukraine and resale of these high-grade weapons to third parties, similar to the manner in which American weapons left behind in Afghanistan are presently being used by Hamas to attack Israel.

The world is also concerned about sustainable development goals, climate finance and preparing for the future. Climate finance discussions are getting tied with the reform of multilateral development banks. The UN is very keen to partner with India in pushing this forward. India is reportedly planning to push forward its plan of ‘reformed multilateralism’, and bypass the existing impasse created by China in the inter-governmental process on Security Council reform. The UNSG is keen to organise a ‘Summit of the future’ before leaving office in 2024. This may be an opportune moment to push through Security Council reform, particularly in the UNGA.

There are also indications that the ‘India Way’ is winning globally. Leaders from Samoa, Guyana, Mauritius, Maldives, Bhutan, Dominica, Jamaica and St. Lucia recently thanked India for the following:

• For timely delivery of Covid 19 vaccines, when developed countries had refused.
• For providing a platform for the Global South during its G 20 presidency,
• For articulating issues concerning the wider Global South despite its own challenges of development.

There would appear to be a positive movement towards multi-polarity after the New Delhi Summit. This has huge implications as well as opportunities for Bharat. India is evolving as a unique bridge between different worlds. As EAM noted in ‘The India Way’ that an India: “not driven by victimhood…has the potential to serve as a bridge between the established and emerging orders”.

India is a bridging power, based on a confident nationalism, with the aspiration to become a full-fledged pole in the international system. This multi-polar vision will lead to a a multi-polar world. Indian multi-alignment will take it toward diverse partners in its quest to expand its national power. Clearly, the West remains a pivotal buttress for India. Western economic and technological supremacy alone, of which the United States is the singular paragon, ensures its priority in India’s grand strategy going forward.

The bitter legacy of colonialism and the antagonisms of the Cold War have left India with lingering ambiguities and an inner ambivalence about its Western strategic partners. The current and prospective threats from China, however, ensure that New Delhi’s hesitations notwithstanding, the gravitation toward the strategic West will only intensify.

In my book ‘India and the EU: an Insider View” I have pointed out that India needs to address the issue of its great power deficit which appears to be less one of ability than of political will. India remains wary of assuming global responsibilities that might impose limitations on the options available for pursuing its own immediate national interest. While India is becoming comfortable with its new weight as an emerged power, it does not appear quite ready yet to step up to the plate as a co-manager of the global order.

PM Modi’s foreign policy has already confirmed this direction. Nevertheless, India’s sense of self, its colonial past, its substantial natural endowments, and its strategic potentialities all combine to strengthen its determination to protect its freedom of action. India’s moment has come. The day will surely come when Bharat will ascend to the pinnacle of the global system as an independent great power. This vision enjoys substantial support across the political spectrum in India that is Bharat.

As the natural leader of the global South and an emerged pole, Bharat that is India’s greatest asset is its history, culture and civilisation. As Swami Vivekananda said:

“India for thousands of years peacefully existed.
Even earlier, when history had no record,
And tradition dared not peer into the gloom of that intense past,
Even from then until now,
Ideas after ideas have marched out from her,
But every word has been spoken with a blessing behind it and peace before it.
We, of all nations of the world, have never been a conquering race,
And that blessing is on our head,
And therefore we live”.

Author Brief Bio: Ambassador Bhaswati Mukherjee is the President of India Habitat Centre.A career foreign service officer, Amb. Bhaswati Mukherjee is one of the most experienced diplomats on Indo-EU relations. In a distinguished career of over 38 years, she has been the Indian Ambassador to The Netherlands as well as India’s Permanent Representative to UNESCO in Paris.